All tidal wetlands are blue carbon ecosystems

Managing coastal wetlands is one of the most promising activities to reduce atmospheric greenhouse gases, and it also contributes to meeting the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals. One of the options is through blue carbon projects, in which mangroves, saltmarshes, and seagrass are managed to increase carbon sequestration and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. However, other tidal wetlands align with the characteristics of blue carbon. These wetlands are called tidal freshwater wetlands in the United States, supratidal wetlands in Australia, transitional forests in Southeast Asia, and estuarine forests in South Africa. They have similar or larger potential for atmospheric carbon sequestration and emission reductions than the currently considered blue carbon ecosystems and have been highly exploited. In the present article, we suggest that all wetlands directly or indirectly influenced by tides should be considered blue carbon. Their protection and restoration through carbon offsets could reduce emissions while providing multiple cobenefits, including biodiversity.

Current extent and future opportunities for living shorelines in Australia

Living shorelines aim to enhance the resilience of coastlines to hazards while simultaneously delivering co-benefits such as carbon sequestration. Despite the potential ecological and socio-economic benefits of living shorelines over conventional engineered coastal protection structures, application is limited globally. Australia has a long and diverse coastline that provides prime opportunities for living shorelines using beaches and dunes, vegetation, and biogenic reefs, which may be either natural ('soft' approach) or with an engineered structural component ('hybrid' approach). Published scientific studies, however, have indicated limited use of living shorelines for coastal protection in Australia. In response, we combined a national survey and interviews of coastal practitioners and a grey and peer-reviewed literature search to (1) identify barriers to living shoreline implementation; and (2) create a database of living shoreline projects in Australia based on sources other than scientific literature. Projects included were those that had either a primary or secondary goal of protection of coastal assets from erosion and/or flooding. We identified 138 living shoreline projects in Australia through the means sampled starting in 1970; with the number of projects increasing through time particularly since 2000. Over half of the total projects (59 %) were considered to be successful according to their initial stated objective (i.e., reducing hazard risk) and 18 % of projects could not be assessed for their success based on the information available. Seventy percent of projects received formal or informal monitoring. Even in the absence of peer-reviewed support for living shoreline construction in Australia, we discovered local and regional increases in their use. This suggests that coastal practitioners are learning on-the-ground, however more generally it was stated that few examples of living shorelines are being made available, suggesting a barrier in information sharing among agencies at a broader scale. A database of living shoreline projects can increase knowledge among practitioners globally to develop best practice that informs technical guidelines for different approaches and helps focus attention on areas for further research.

Planning hydrological restoration of coastal wetlands: Key model considerations and solutions

The hydrological restoration of coastal wetlands is an emerging approach for mitigating and adapting to climate change and enhancing ecosystem services such as improved water quality and biodiversity. This paper synthesises current knowledge on selecting appropriate modelling approaches for hydrological restoration projects. The selection of a modelling approach is based on project-specific factors, such as costs, risks, and uncertainties, and aligns with the overall project objectives. We provide guidance on model selection, emphasising the use of simpler and less expensive modelling approaches when appropriate, and identifying situations when models may not be required for project managers to make informed decisions. This paper recognises and supports the widespread use of hydrological restoration in coastal wetlands by bridging the gap between hydrological science and restoration practices. It underscores the significance of project objectives, budget, and available data and offers decision-making frameworks, such as decision trees, to aid in matching modelling methods with specific project outcomes.

Rapid diversification of grey mangroves (Avicennia marina) driven by geographic isolation and extreme environmental conditions in the Arabian Peninsula

Biological systems occurring in ecologically heterogeneous and spatially discontinuous habitats provide an ideal opportunity to investigate the relative roles of neutral and selective factors in driving lineage diversification. The grey mangroves (Avicennia marina) of Arabia occur at the northern edge of the species' range and are subject to variable, often extreme, environmental conditions, as well as historic large fluctuations in habitat availability and connectivity resulting from Quaternary glacial cycles. Here, we analyse fully sequenced genomes sampled from 19 locations across the Red Sea, the Arabian Sea and the Persian/Arabian Gulf (PAG) to reconstruct the evolutionary history of the species in the region and to identify adaptive mechanisms of lineage diversification. Population structure and phylogenetic analyses revealed marked genetic structure correlating with geographic distance and highly supported clades among and within the seas surrounding the Arabian Peninsula. Demographic modelling showed times of divergence consistent with recent periods of geographic isolation and low marine connectivity during glaciations, suggesting the presence of (cryptic) glacial refugia in the Red Sea and the PAG. Significant migration was detected within the Red Sea and the PAG, and across the Strait of Hormuz to the Arabian Sea, suggesting gene flow upon secondary contact among populations. Genetic-environment association analyses revealed high levels of adaptive divergence and detected signs of multi-loci local adaptation driven by temperature extremes and hypersalinity. These results support a process of rapid diversification resulting from the combined effects of historical factors and ecological selection and reveal mangrove peripheral environments as relevant drivers of lineage diversity.

Global dataset of soil organic carbon in tidal marshes

Tidal marshes store large amounts of organic carbon in their soils. Field data quantifying soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks provide an important resource for researchers, natural resource managers, and policy-makers working towards the protection, restoration, and valuation of these ecosystems. We collated a global dataset of tidal marsh soil organic carbon (MarSOC) from 99 studies that includes location, soil depth, site name, dry bulk density, SOC, and/or soil organic matter (SOM). The MarSOC dataset includes 17,454 data points from 2,329 unique locations, and 29 countries. We generated a general transfer function for the conversion of SOM to SOC. Using this data we estimated a median (± median absolute deviation) value of 79.2 ± 38.1 Mg SOC ha-1 in the top 30 cm and 231 ± 134 Mg SOC ha-1 in the top 1 m of tidal marsh soils globally. This data can serve as a basis for future work, and may contribute to incorporation of tidal marsh ecosystems into climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies and policies.

Priority areas to protect mangroves and maximise ecosystem services

Anthropogenic activities threaten global biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, area-based conservation efforts typically target biodiversity protection whilst minimising conflict with economic activities, failing to consider ecosystem services. Here we identify priority areas that maximise both the protection of mangrove biodiversity and their ecosystem services. We reveal that despite 13.5% of the mangrove distribution being currently strictly protected, all mangrove species are not adequately represented and many areas that provide disproportionally large ecosystem services are missed. Optimising the placement of future conservation efforts to protect 30% of global mangroves potentially safeguards an additional 16.3 billion USD of coastal property value, 6.1 million people, 1173.1 Tg C, and 50.7 million fisher days yr-1. Our findings suggest that there is a pressing need for including ecosystem services in protected area design and that strategic prioritisation and coordination of mangrove conservation could provide substantial benefits to human wellbeing.

Widespread retreat of coastal habitat is likely at warming levels above 1.5 °C

Several coastal ecosystems-most notably mangroves and tidal marshes-exhibit biogenic feedbacks that are facilitating adjustment to relative sea-level rise (RSLR), including the sequestration of carbon and the trapping of mineral sediment1. The stability of reef-top habitats under RSLR is similarly linked to reef-derived sediment accumulation and the vertical accretion of protective coral reefs2. The persistence of these ecosystems under high rates of RSLR is contested3. Here we show that the probability of vertical adjustment to RSLR inferred from palaeo-stratigraphic observations aligns with contemporary in situ survey measurements. A deficit between tidal marsh and mangrove adjustment and RSLR is likely at 4 mm yr-1 and highly likely at 7 mm yr-1 of RSLR. As rates of RSLR exceed 7 mm yr-1, the probability that reef islands destabilize through increased shoreline erosion and wave over-topping increases. Increased global warming from 1.5 °C to 2.0 °C would double the area of mapped tidal marsh exposed to 4 mm yr-1 of RSLR by between 2080 and 2100. With 3 °C of warming, nearly all the world's mangrove forests and coral reef islands and almost 40% of mapped tidal marshes are estimated to be exposed to RSLR of at least 7 mm yr-1. Meeting the Paris agreement targets would minimize disruption to coastal ecosystems.

Land Tenure, Ownership and Use as Barriers to Coastal Wetland Restoration Projects in Australia: Recommendations and Solutions

Globally, there is an urgent need for widespread restoration of coastal wetlands like mangroves and saltmarsh. This restoration has been slow to progress in Australia for a number of reasons, including legal issues surrounding land tenure, ownership and use. This paper uses the responses to a survey of coastal zone experts to identify and articulate these legal issues, before considering and analysing in-depth recommendations, solutions and levers to facilitate restoration, and areas where further research or possible policy and/or law reform is needed. It calls for legislative reform to clarify tidal boundaries generally and under sea-level rise, greater use of incentive schemes to encourage the uptake of restoration projects, and utilisation of contracts and land-based covenants to secure projects and carbon flows.

Importance of mangrove plantations for climate change mitigation in Bangladesh

Mangroves have been identified as blue carbon ecosystems that are natural carbon sinks. In Bangladesh, the establishment of mangrove plantations for coastal protection has occurred since the 1960s, but the plantations may also be a sustainable pathway to enhance carbon sequestration, which can help Bangladesh meet its greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets, contributing to climate change mitigation. As a part of its Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) under the Paris Agreement 2016, Bangladesh is committed to limiting the GHG emissions through the expansion of mangrove plantations, but the level of carbon removal that could be achieved through the establishment of plantations has not yet been estimated. The mean ecosystem carbon stock of 5-42 years aged (average age: 25.5 years) mangrove plantations was 190.1 (±30.3) Mg C ha^-1 , with ecosystem carbon stocks varying regionally. The biomass carbon stock was 60.3 (±5.6) Mg C ha^-1 and the soil carbon stock was 129.8 (±24.8) Mg C ha^-1 in the top 1 m of which 43.9 Mg C ha^-1 was added to the soil after plantation establishment. Plantations at age 5 to 42 years achieved 52% of the mean ecosystem carbon stock calculated for the reference site (Sundarbans natural mangroves). Since 1966, the 28,000 ha of established plantations to the east of the Sundarbans have accumulated approximately 76,607 Mg C year^-1 sequestration in biomass and 37,542 Mg C year^-1 sequestration in soils, totaling 114,149 Mg C year^-1 . Continuation of the current plantation success rate would sequester an additional 664,850 Mg C by 2030, which is 4.4% of Bangladesh's 2030 GHG reduction target from all sectors described in its NDC, however, plantations for climate change mitigation would be most effective 20 years after establishment. Higher levels of investment in mangrove plantations and higher plantation establishment success could contribute up to 2,098,093 Mg C to blue carbon sequestration and climate change mitigation in Bangladesh by 2030.

Quantifying blue carbon stocks and the role of protected areas to conserve coastal wetlands

Vegetated coastal ecosystems, in particular mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses are highly efficient at sequestering and storing carbon, making them valuable assets for climate change mitigation and adaptation. The state of Queensland, in northeastern Australia, contains almost half of the total area of these blue carbon ecosystems in the country, yet there are few detailed regional or state-wide assessments of their total sedimentary organic carbon (SOC) stocks. We compiled existing SOC data and used boosted regression tree models to evaluate the influence of environmental variables in explaining the variability in SOC stocks, and to produce spatially explicit blue carbon estimates. The final models explained 75 % (for mangroves and tidal marshes) and 65 % (for seagrasses) of the variability in SOC stocks. Total SOC stocks in the state of Queensland were estimated at 569 ± 98 Tg C (173 ± 32 Tg C, 232 ± 50 Tg C, and 164 ± 16 Tg C from mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses, respectively). Regional predictions for each of Queensland's eleven Natural Resource Management regions revealed that 60 % of the state's SOC stocks occurred within three regions (Cape York, Torres Strait and Southern Gulf Natural Resource Management regions) due to a combination of high values of SOC stocks and large areas of coastal wetlands. Protected areas in Queensland play an important role in conserving SOC assets in Queensland's coastal wetlands. For example, ~19 Tg C within terrestrial protected areas, ~27 Tg C within marine protected areas and ~ 40 Tg C within areas of matters of State Environmental Significance. Using multi-decadal (1987-2020) mapped distributions of mangroves in Queensland; we found that mangrove area increased by approximately 30,000 ha from 1987 to 2020, which led to temporal fluctuations in mangrove plant and SOC stocks. We estimated that plant stocks decreased from ~45 Tg C in 1987 to ~34.2 Tg C in 2020, while SOC stocks remained relatively constant from ~107.9 Tg C in 1987 to 108.0 Tg C in 2020. Considering the level of current protection, emissions from mangrove deforestation are potentially very low; therefore, representing minor opportunities for mangrove blue carbon projects in the region. Our study provides much needed information on current trends in carbon stocks and their conservation in Queensland's coastal wetlands, while also contributing to guide future management actions, including blue carbon restoration projects.

Research priorities for the sustainability of coral-rich western Pacific seascapes

Nearly a billion people depend on tropical seascapes. The need to ensure sustainable use of these vital areas is recognised, as one of 17 policy commitments made by world leaders, in Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 14 ('Life below Water') of the United Nations. SDG 14 seeks to secure marine sustainability by 2030. In a time of increasing social-ecological unpredictability and risk, scientists and policymakers working towards SDG 14 in the Asia-Pacific region need to know: (1) How are seascapes changing? (2) What can global society do about these changes? and (3) How can science and society together achieve sustainable seascape futures? Through a horizon scan, we identified nine emerging research priorities that clarify potential research contributions to marine sustainability in locations with high coral reef abundance. They include research on seascape geological and biological evolution and adaptation; elucidating drivers and mechanisms of change; understanding how seascape functions and services are produced, and how people depend on them; costs, benefits, and trade-offs to people in changing seascapes; improving seascape technologies and practices; learning to govern and manage seascapes for all; sustainable use, justice, and human well-being; bridging communities and epistemologies for innovative, equitable, and scale-crossing solutions; and informing resilient seascape futures through modelling and synthesis. Researchers can contribute to the sustainability of tropical seascapes by co-developing transdisciplinary understandings of people and ecosystems, emphasising the importance of equity and justice, and improving knowledge of key cross-scale and cross-level processes, feedbacks, and thresholds.

Discovering marine biodiversity in the 21st century

We review the current knowledge of the biodiversity of the ocean as well as the levels of decline and threat for species and habitats. The lack of understanding of the distribution of life in the ocean is identified as a significant barrier to restoring its biodiversity and health. We explore why the science of taxonomy has failed to deliver knowledge of what species are present in the ocean, how they are distributed and how they are responding to global and regional to local anthropogenic pressures. This failure prevents nations from meeting their international commitments to conserve marine biodiversity with the results that investment in taxonomy has declined in many countries. We explore a range of new technologies and approaches for discovery of marine species and their detection and monitoring. These include: imaging methods, molecular approaches, active and passive acoustics, the use of interconnected databases and citizen science. Whilst no one method is suitable for discovering or detecting all groups of organisms many are complementary and have been combined to give a more complete picture of biodiversity in marine ecosystems. We conclude that integrated approaches represent the best way forwards for accelerating species discovery, description and biodiversity assessment. Examples of integrated taxonomic approaches are identified from terrestrial ecosystems. Such integrated taxonomic approaches require the adoption of cybertaxonomy approaches and will be boosted by new autonomous sampling platforms and development of machine-speed exchange of digital information between databases.

Drivers of global mangrove loss and gain in social-ecological systems

Mangrove forests store high amounts of carbon, protect communities from storms, and support fisheries. Mangroves exist in complex social-ecological systems, hence identifying socioeconomic conditions associated with decreasing losses and increasing gains remains challenging albeit important. The impact of national governance and conservation policies on mangrove conservation at the landscape-scale has not been assessed to date, nor have the interactions with local economic pressures and biophysical drivers. Here, we assess the relationship between socioeconomic and biophysical variables and mangrove change across coastal geomorphic units worldwide from 1996 to 2016. Globally, we find that drivers of loss can also be drivers of gain, and that drivers have changed over 20 years. The association with economic growth appears to have reversed, shifting from negatively impacting mangroves in the first decade to enabling mangrove expansion in the second decade. Importantly, we find that community forestry is promoting mangrove expansion, whereas conversion to agriculture and aquaculture, often occurring in protected areas, results in high loss. Sustainable development, community forestry, and co-management of protected areas are promising strategies to reverse mangrove losses, increasing the capacity of mangroves to support human-livelihoods and combat climate change.

Mangroves provide blue carbon ecological value at a low freshwater cost

"Blue carbon" wetland vegetation has a limited freshwater requirement. One type, mangroves, utilizes less freshwater during transpiration than adjacent terrestrial ecoregions, equating to only 43% (average) to 57% (potential) of evapotranspiration ([Formula: see text]). Here, we demonstrate that comparative consumptive water use by mangrove vegetation is as much as 2905 kL H₂O ha^-1 year^-1 less than adjacent ecoregions with [Formula: see text]-to-[Formula: see text] ratios of 47-70%. Lower porewater salinity would, however, increase mangrove [Formula: see text]-to-[Formula: see text] ratios by affecting leaf-, tree-, and stand-level eco-physiological controls on transpiration. Restricted water use is also additive to other ecosystem services provided by mangroves, such as high carbon sequestration, coastal protection and support of biodiversity within estuarine and marine environments. Low freshwater demand enables mangroves to sustain ecological values of connected estuarine ecosystems with future reductions in freshwater while not competing with the freshwater needs of humans. Conservative water use may also be a characteristic of other emergent blue carbon wetlands.

Tackling the mangrove restoration challenge

Mangroves have been converted and degraded for decades. Rates of loss have declined over the past decades, but achieving resilient coastlines requires both conservation and restoration. Here, we outline the challenges for the global restoration of mangroves and what actions could enhance restoration. Ambitious global targets for mangrove restoration, if successful, could deliver global benefits of carbon sequestration, fisheries production, biodiversity, and coastal protection. However, large-scale mangrove planting efforts have often failed, and smaller projects may not deliver landscape-scale benefits, even though they are more suited to community management. Solutions to achieving global targets include reducing risks of large projects and increasing the uptake and effectiveness of smaller projects. Sustainable mangrove restoration requires investment in capacity building in communities and institutions, and mechanisms to match restoration opportunities with prospective supporters and investors. Global reporting standards will support adaptive management and help fully understand and monitor the benefits of mangrove restoration.

Restoration of mangroves is urgently needed and contributes to climate change mitigation, but often faces biophysical, social, economic and regulatory barriers. This Essay describes emerging solutions supporting restoration of mangroves - solutions that are needed to fully implement restoration goals and achieve resilient, sustainable coastal communities.

Constraints on the adjustment of tidal marshes to accelerating sea level rise

Much uncertainty exists about the vulnerability of valuable tidal marsh ecosystems to relative sea level rise. Previous assessments of resilience to sea level rise, to which marshes can adjust by sediment accretion and elevation gain, revealed contrasting results, depending on contemporary or Holocene geological data. By analyzing globally distributed contemporary data, we found that marsh sediment accretion increases in parity with sea level rise, seemingly confirming previously claimed marsh resilience. However, subsidence of the substrate shows a nonlinear increase with accretion. As a result, marsh elevation gain is constrained in relation to sea level rise, and deficits emerge that are consistent with Holocene observations of tidal marsh vulnerability.

Nature-based solutions for atoll habitability

Atoll societies have adapted their environments and social systems for thousands of years, but the rapid pace of climate change may bring conditions that exceed their adaptive capacities. There is growing interest in the use of ‘nature-based solutions' to facilitate the continuation of dignified and meaningful lives on atolls through a changing climate. However, there remains insufficient evidence to conclude that these can make a significant contribution to adaptation on atolls, let alone to develop standards and guidelines for their implementation. A sustained programme of research to clarify the potential of nature-based solutions to support the habitability of atolls is therefore vital. In this paper, we provide a prospectus to guide this research programme: we explain the challenge climate change poses to atoll societies, discuss past and potential future applications of nature-based solutions and outline an agenda for transdisciplinary research to advance knowledge of the efficacy and feasibility of nature-based solutions to sustain the habitability of atolls.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Nurturing resilient marine ecosystems’.

Climate change mitigation and improvement of water quality from the restoration of a subtropical coastal wetland

Coastal wetland restoration is an important activity to achieve greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets, improve water quality, and reach the Sustainable Development Goals. However, many uncertainties remain in connection with achieving, measuring, and reporting success from coastal wetland restoration. We measured levels of carbon (C) abatement and nitrogen (N) removal potential of restored coastal wetlands in subtropical Queensland, Australia. The site was originally a supratidal forest composed of Melaleuca spp. that was cleared and drained in the 1990s for sugarcane production. In 2010, tidal inundation was reinstated, and a mosaic of coastal vegetation (saltmarshes, mangroves, and supratidal forests) emerged. We measured soil GHG fluxes (CH₄ , N₂ O, CO₂ ) and sequestration of organic C in the trees and soil to estimate the net C abatement associated with the reference, converted, and restored sites. To assess the influence of restoration on water quality improvement, we measured denitrification and soil N accumulation. We calculated C abatement of 18.5 Mg CO_2-eq ha^-1  year^-1 when sugarcane land transitioned to supratidal forests, 11.0 Mg CO_2-eq ha^-1  year^-1 when the land transitioned to mangroves, and 6.2 Mg CO_2-eq ha^-1  year^-1 when the land transitioned to saltmarshes. The C abatement was due to tree growth, soil accumulation, and reduced N₂ O emissions due to the cessation of fertilization. Carbon abatement was still positive, even accounting for CH₄ emissions, which increased in the wetlands due to flooding and N₂ O production due to enhanced levels of denitrification. Coastal wetland restoration in this subtropical setting effectively reduces CO₂ emissions while providing additional cobenefits, notably water quality improvement.

High-resolution mapping of losses and gains of Earth's tidal wetlands

Tidal wetlands are expected to respond dynamically to global environmental change, but the extent to which wetland losses have been offset by gains remains poorly understood. We developed a global analysis of satellite data to simultaneously monitor change in three highly interconnected intertidal ecosystem types-tidal flats, tidal marshes, and mangroves-from 1999 to 2019. Globally, 13,700 square kilometers of tidal wetlands have been lost, but these have been substantially offset by gains of 9700 km², leading to a net change of -4000 km² over two decades. We found that 27% of these losses and gains were associated with direct human activities such as conversion to agriculture and restoration of lost wetlands. All other changes were attributed to indirect drivers, including the effects of coastal processes and climate change.

Ambitious global targets for mangrove and seagrass recovery

There is an urgent need to halt and reverse loss of mangroves and seagrass to protect and increase the ecosystem services they provide to coastal communities, such as enhancing coastal resilience and contributing to climate stability.^1,2 Ambitious targets for their recovery can inspire public and private investment in conservation,³ but the expected outcomes of different protection and restoration strategies are unclear. We estimated potential recovery of mangroves and seagrass through gains in ecosystem extent to the year 2070 under a range of protection and restoration strategies implemented until the year 2050. Under a protection-only scenario, the current trajectories of net mangrove loss slowed, and a minor net gain in global seagrass extent (∼1%) was estimated. Protection alone is therefore unlikely to drive sufficient recovery. However, if action is taken to both protect and restore, net gains of up to 5% and 35% of mangroves and seagrasses, respectively, could be achieved by 2050. Further, protection and restoration can be complementary, as protection prevents losses that would otherwise occur post-2050, highlighting the importance of implementing protection measures. Our findings provide the scientific evidence required for setting strategic and ambitious targets to inspire significant global investment and effort in mangrove and seagrass conservation.

Modelling blue carbon farming opportunities at different spatial scales

There is a growing interest in including blue carbon ecosystems (i.e., mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrasses) in climate mitigation programs in national and sub-national policies, with restoration and conservation of these ecosystems identified as potential activities to increase carbon accumulation through time. However, there is still a gap on the spatial scales needed to produce carbon offsets comparable with terrestrial or agricultural ecosystems. Here, we used the Coastal Blue Carbon InVEST 3.7.0 model to estimate future net carbon sequestration in blue carbon ecosystems along Australia's Great Barrier Reef (hereafter GBR) catchments, considering different management scenarios (i.e., reintroduction of tidal exchange through the removal of barriers, sea level rise, restoring low lying land) at three different spatial scales: whole GBR coastline, regional (14,000-16,300 ha), and local (335-370 ha) scales. The focus of the restoration (i.e., tidal marshes and/or mangroves) was dependent on data availability for each scenario. Furthermore, we also estimated the monetary value of carbon sequestration under each management scenario and spatial scale assessed in the study. We found that large scale restoration of tidal marshes could potentially sequester an additional ∼800,000 tonnes of CO₂e by 2045 (potentially generating AU$12 million based on the average Australia carbon price), with greater opportunities when sea level rise is accounted for in the modelling. Also, we found that regional and local projects would generate up to 23 tonnes CO₂e ha^-1 by the end of the crediting period. Our results can guide future decisions in the blue carbon market and financing schemes, however, the return on investment is dependent on the carbon price and funding scheme available for project implementation.

National scale predictions of contemporary and future blue carbon storage

To help mitigate the impacts of climate change, many nature-based solutions are being explored. These solutions involve protection and restoration of ecosystems that serve as efficient carbon sinks, including vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCEs: tidal marshes, mangrove forests, and seagrass meadows) also known as 'Blue Carbon' ecosystems. In fact, many nations are seeking to manage VCEs to help meet their climate change mitigation targets through Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs). However, incorporation of VCEs into NDCs requires national-scale estimates of contemporary and future blue carbon storage, which has not yet been achieved. Here we address this challenge using machine learning approaches to reliably map (with 62-72% accuracy) soil carbon stocks in VCEs based on geospatial data (topography, geomorphology, climate, and anthropogenic impacts), using Australia as a case study. The resulting maps of soil carbon stocks showed that there is a total of 951 Tg (±65 Tg) of carbon stock within Australian VCEs. Strong relationships between soil carbon stocks and climatic conditions (temperature, rainfall, solar radiation) allowed us to project future changes in carbon storage across all RCP scenarios for the years 2050 and 2090 to determine changes in environmental suitability for soil carbon stocks. Results show that soil carbon stocks in mangrove/tidal marsh ecosystems are likely to predominantly experience declines in carbon stocks under predicted climate change scenarios (19% of ecosystems area is predicted to have an increase in soil carbon stocks, while 38% of ecosystems area is predicted to have a decrease in soil carbon stocks), but a majority of seagrass area is likely to have increased soil carbon stocks (56% increase, 7% decrease). This approach is effective for developing robust national blue carbon inventories and revealing the capacity for blue carbon to help meet NDCs. The resulting spatially-explicit maps can also be used to pinpoint areas for successful blue carbon projects both now and in the future.

Spatial cost-benefit analysis of blue restoration and factors driving net benefits globally

Marine coastal ecosystems, commonly referred to as blue ecosystems, provide valuable services to society but are under increasing threat worldwide due to a variety of drivers, including eutrophication, development, land-use change, land reclamation, and climate change. Ecological restoration is sometimes necessary to facilitate recovery in coastal ecosystems. Blue restoration (i.e., in marine coastal systems) is a developing field, and projects to date have been small scale and expensive, leading to the perception that restoration may not be economically viable. We conducted a global cost-benefit analysis to determine the net benefits of restoring coral reef, mangrove, saltmarsh, and seagrass ecosystems, where the benefit is defined as the monetary value of ecosystem services. We estimated costs from published restoration case studies and used an adjusted-value-transfer method to assign benefit values to these case studies. Benefit values were estimated as the monetary value provided by ecosystem services of the restored habitats. Benefits outweighed costs (i.e., there were positive net benefits) for restoration of all blue ecosystems. Mean benefit:cost ratios for ecosystem restoration were eight to 10 times higher than prior studies of coral reef and seagrass restoration, most likely due to the more recent lower cost estimates we used. Among ecosystems, saltmarsh had the greatest net benefits followed by mangrove; coral reef and seagrass ecosystems had lower net benefits. In general, restoration in nations with middle incomes had higher (eight times higher in coral reefs and 40 times higher in mangroves) net benefits than those with high incomes. Within an ecosystem type, net benefit varied with restoration technique (coral reef and saltmarsh), ecosystem service produced (mangrove and saltmarsh), and project duration (seagrass). These results challenge the perceptions of the low economic viability of blue restoration and should encourage further targeted investment in this field.

Ecosystem type drives tea litter decomposition and associated prokaryotic microbiome communities in freshwater and coastal wetlands at a continental scale

Wetland ecosystems are critical to the regulation of the global carbon cycle, and there is a high demand for data to improve carbon sequestration and emission models and predictions. Decomposition of plant litter is an important component of ecosystem carbon cycling, yet a lack of knowledge on decay rates in wetlands is an impediment to predicting carbon preservation. Here, we aim to fill this knowledge gap by quantifying the decomposition of standardised green and rooibos tea litter over one year within freshwater and coastal wetland soils across four climates in Australia. We also captured changes in the prokaryotic members of the tea-associated microbiome during this process. Ecosystem type drove differences in tea decay rates and prokaryotic microbiome community composition. Decomposition rates were up to 2-fold higher in mangrove and seagrass soils compared to freshwater wetlands and tidal marshes, in part due to greater leaching-related mass loss. For tidal marshes and freshwater wetlands, the warmer climates had 7-16% less mass remaining compared to temperate climates after a year of decomposition. The prokaryotic microbiome community composition was significantly different between substrate types and sampling times within and across ecosystem types. Microbial indicator analyses suggested putative metabolic pathways common across ecosystems were used to breakdown the tea litter, including increased presence of putative methylotrophs and sulphur oxidisers linked to the introduction of oxygen by root in-growth over the incubation period. Structural equation modelling analyses further highlighted the importance of incubation time on tea decomposition and prokaryotic microbiome community succession, particularly for rooibos tea that experienced a greater proportion of mass loss between three and twelve months compared to green tea. These results provide insights into ecosystem-level attributes that affect both the abiotic and biotic controls of belowground wetland carbon turnover at a continental scale, while also highlighting new decay dynamics for tea litter decomposing under longer incubations.

Harvesting water from unsaturated atmospheres: deliquescence of salt secreted onto leaf surfaces drives reverse sap flow in a dominant arid climate mangrove, Avicennia marina

The mangrove Avicennia marina adjusts internal salt concentrations by foliar salt secretion. Deliquescence of accumulated salt causes leaf wetting that may provide a water source for salt-secreting plants in arid coastal wetlands where high nocturnal humidity can usually support deliquescence whereas rainfall events are rare. We tested the hypotheses that salt deliquescence on leaf surfaces can drive top-down rehydration, and that such absorption of moisture from unsaturated atmospheres makes a functional contribution to dry season shoot water balances. Sap flow and water relations were monitored to assess the uptake of atmospheric water by branches during shoot wetting events under natural and manipulated microclimatic conditions. Reverse sap flow rates increased with increasing relative humidity from 70% to 89%, consistent with function of salt deliquescence in harvesting moisture from unsaturated atmospheres. Top-down rehydration elevated branch water potentials above those possible from root water uptake, subsidising transpiration rates and reducing branch vulnerability to hydraulic failure in the subsequent photoperiod. Absorption of atmospheric moisture harvested through deliquescence of salt on leaf surfaces enhances water balances of Avicennia marina growing in hypersaline wetlands under arid climatic conditions. Top-down rehydration from these frequent, low intensity wetting events contributes to prevention of carbon starvation and hydraulic failure during drought.

Current and future carbon stocks in coastal wetlands within the Great Barrier Reef catchments

Australia's Great Barrier Reef (GBR) catchments include some of the world's most intact coastal wetlands comprising diverse mangrove, seagrass and tidal marsh ecosystems. Although these ecosystems are highly efficient at storing carbon in marine sediments, their soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and the potential changes resulting from climate impacts, including sea level rise are not well understood. For the first time, we estimated SOC stocks and their drivers within the range of coastal wetlands of GBR catchments using boosted regression trees (i.e. a machine learning approach and ensemble method for modelling the relationship between response and explanatory variables) and identified the potential changes in future stocks due to sea level rise. We found levels of SOC stocks of mangrove and seagrass meadows have different drivers, with climatic variables such as temperature, rainfall and solar radiation, showing significant contributions in accounting for variation in SOC stocks in mangroves. In contrast, soil type accounted for most of the variability in seagrass meadows. Total SOC stock in the GBR catchments, including mangroves, seagrass meadows and tidal marshes, is approximately 137 Tg C, which represents 9%-13% of Australia's total SOC stock while encompassing only 4%-6% of the total extent of Australian coastal wetlands. In a global context, this could represent 0.5%-1.4% of global SOC stock. Our study suggests that landward migration due to projected sea level rise has the potential to enhance carbon accumulation with total carbon gains between 0.16 and 0.46 Tg C and provides an opportunity for future restoration to enhance blue carbon.

Future carbon emissions from global mangrove forest loss

Mangroves have among the highest carbon densities of any tropical forest. These 'blue carbon' ecosystems can store large amounts of carbon for long periods, and their protection reduces greenhouse gas emissions and supports climate change mitigation. Incorporating mangroves into Nationally Determined Contributions to the Paris Agreement and their valuation on carbon markets requires predicting how the management of different land-uses can prevent future greenhouse gas emissions and increase CO₂ sequestration. We integrated comprehensive global datasets for carbon stocks, mangrove distribution, deforestation rates, and land-use change drivers into a predictive model of mangrove carbon emissions. We project emissions and foregone soil carbon sequestration potential under 'business as usual' rates of mangrove loss. Emissions from mangrove loss could reach 2391 Tg CO_2 eq by the end of the century, or 3392 Tg CO_2 eq when considering foregone soil carbon sequestration. The highest emissions were predicted in southeast and south Asia (West Coral Triangle, Sunda Shelf, and the Bay of Bengal) due to conversion to aquaculture or agriculture, followed by the Caribbean (Tropical Northwest Atlantic) due to clearing and erosion, and the Andaman coast (West Myanmar) and north Brazil due to erosion. Together, these six regions accounted for 90% of the total potential CO_2 eq future emissions. Mangrove loss has been slowing, and global emissions could be more than halved if reduced loss rates remain in the future. Notably, the location of global emission hotspots was consistent with every dataset used to calculate deforestation rates or with alternative assumptions about carbon storage and emissions. Our results indicate the regions in need of policy actions to address emissions arising from mangrove loss and the drivers that could be managed to prevent them.

Impact of an extreme monsoon on CO2 and CH4 fluxes from mangrove soils of the Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar

Mangrove ecosystems can be both significant sources and sinks of greenhouse gases (GHGs). Understanding variability in flux and the key factors controlling emissions in these ecosystems are therefore important in the context of accounting for GHG emissions. The current study is the first to quantify GHG emissions using static chamber measurements from soils in disused aquaculture ponds, planted mangroves, and mature mangroves from the Ayeyarwady Delta, Myanmar. Soil properties, biomass and estimated net primary productivity were also assessed. Field assessments were conducted at the same sites during the middle of the dry season in February and end of the wet season in October 2019. Rates of soil CO₂ efflux were among the highest yet recorded from mangrove ecosystems, with CO₂ efflux from the 8 year old site reaching 86.8 ± 17 Mg CO₂ ha^-1 yr^-1 during February, an average of 862% more than all other sites assessed during this period. In October, all sites had significant rates of soil CO₂ efflux, with rates ranging from 31.9 ± 4.4 Mg CO₂ ha^-1 yr^-1 in a disused pond to 118.9 ± 24.3 Mg CO₂ ha^-1 yr^-1 in the 8 year old site. High soil CO₂ efflux from the 8 year old site in February is most likely attributable to high rates of primary production and belowground carbon allocation. Elevated CO₂ efflux from all sites during October was likely associated with the extreme 2019 South Asian monsoon season which lowered soil pore salinity and deposited new alluvium, stimulating both autotrophic and heterotrophic activity. Methane efflux increased significantly (50-400%) during the wet season from all sites with mangrove cover, although was a small overall component of soil GHG effluxes during both measurement periods. Our results highlight the critical importance of assessing GHG flux in-situ in order to quantify variability in carbon dynamics over time.

Pandanus nutshell generates a palaeoprecipitation record for human occupation at Madjedbebe, northern Australia

Little is known about the Pleistocene climatic context of northern Australia at the time of early human settlement. Here we generate a palaeoprecipitation proxy using stable carbon isotope analysis of modern and archaeological pandanus nutshell from Madjedbebe, Australia's oldest known archaeological site. We document fluctuations in precipitation over the last 65,000 years and identify periods of lower precipitation during the penultimate and last glacial stages, Marine Isotope Stages 4 and 2. However, the lowest effective annual precipitation is recorded at the present time. Periods of lower precipitation, including the earliest phase of occupation, correspond with peaks in exotic stone raw materials and artefact discard at the site. This pattern is interpreted as suggesting increased group mobility and intensified use of the region during drier periods.

High variance in community structure and ecosystem carbon stocks of Fijian mangroves driven by differences in geomorphology and climate

Mangrove ecosystems are particularly important for small island developing states of the Pacific, such as Fiji, which are at the forefront of the impacts of climate change. This is because of the ability of mangroves to mitigate storm surges and floods as well as their high carbon sequestration and storage capacity. However, there are few detailed studies on the spatial variation in mangrove structure and carbon stocks in Fiji, and this information is essential to support decision making by government and communities, enabling the development of effective mitigation and adaptation responses. We assessed mangrove forest structure in contrasting regions around Fiji's largest island, Viti Levu, within sites managed by indigenous (iTaukei) Fijians. Mangroves of the Ba, Nadroga-Navosa, and Rewa and Tailevu regions showed high variance in both structural complexity and ecosystem carbon stocks. Levels of variation were similar to that observed globally due to variable geomorphological and biophysical settings related to orographic rainfall, freshwater influx, tidal amplitude and cyclonic disturbances. High biomass, structurally complex forests occur on the wetter south-east coast (e.g. the Rewa Delta), while structurally uniform scrub mangroves dominate large areas of mangroves along the north-west (e.g. the Ba Delta) and west coast (e.g. the Tuva Delta). Mangroves of the Ba region displayed considerable damage from tropical cyclones, particularly in taller vegetation. All mangrove sites assessed were important reservoirs of carbon, with results when scaled to the spatial extent of mangroves in Fiji revealing that ecosystem carbon storage is disproportionate to area and equates to 73.3% of the carbon held within terrestrial rainforests, despite occupying just 7.3% of the total area. This underscores the importance of mangroves as valuable carbon sinks in Fiji and the need to develop incentives for improved conservation and restoration.

A global biophysical typology of mangroves and its relevance for ecosystem structure and deforestation

Mangrove forests provide many ecosystem services but are among the world’s most threatened ecosystems. Mangroves vary substantially according to their geomorphic and sedimentary setting; while several conceptual frameworks describe these settings, their spatial distribution has not been quantified. Here, we present a new global mangrove biophysical typology and show that, based on their 2016 extent, 40.5% (54,972 km²) of mangrove systems were deltaic, 27.5% (37,411 km²) were estuarine and 21.0% (28,493 km²) were open coast, with lagoonal mangroves the least abundant (11.0%, 14,993 km²). Mangroves were also classified based on their sedimentary setting, with carbonate mangroves being less abundant than terrigenous, representing just 9.6% of global coverage. Our typology provides a basis for future research to incorporate geomorphic and sedimentary setting in analyses. We present two examples of such applications. Firstly, based on change in extent between 1996 and 2016, we show while all types exhibited considerable declines in area, losses of lagoonal mangroves (− 6.9%) were nearly twice that of other types. Secondly, we quantify differences in aboveground biomass between mangroves of different types, with it being significantly lower in lagoonal mangroves. Overall, our biophysical typology provides a baseline for assessing restoration potential and for quantifying mangrove ecosystem service provision.

Ecological effects of non-native species in marine ecosystems relate to co-occurring anthropogenic pressures

Predictors for the ecological effects of non-native species are lacking, even though such knowledge is fundamental to manage non-native species and mitigate their impacts. Current theories suggest that the ecological effects of non-native species may be related to other concomitant anthropogenic stressors, but this has not been tested at a global scale. We combine an exhaustive meta-analysis of the ecological effects of marine non-native species with human footprint proxies to determine whether the ecological changes due to non-native species are modulated by co-occurring anthropogenic impacts. We found that non-native species had greater negative effects on native biodiversity where human population was high and caused reductions in individual performance where cumulative human impacts were large. On this basis we identified several marine ecoregions where non-native species may have the greatest ecological effects, including areas in the Mediterranean Sea and along the northwest coast of the United States. In conclusion, our global assessment suggests coexisting anthropogenic impacts can intensify the ecological effects of non-native species.

Drivers of habitat partitioning among three Quercus species along a hydrologic gradient

A critical process that allows multiple, similar species to coexist in an ecological community is their ability to partition local habitat gradients. The mechanisms that underlie this separation at local scales may include niche differences associated with their biogeographic history, differences in ecological function associated with the degree of shared ancestry and trait-based performance differences, which may be related to spatial or temporal variation in habitat. In this study we measured traits related to water-use, growth and stress tolerance in mature trees and seedlings of three oak species (Quercus alba L., Quercus falcata Michx. and Quercus palustris Münchh). which co-occur in temperate forests across the eastern USA but tend to be found in contrasting hydrologic environments. The three species showed significant differences in their local distributions along a hydrologic gradient. We tested three possible mechanisms that influence their contrasting local environmental distributions and promote their long-term co-existence: (i) differences in their climatic distributions across a broad geographic range, (ii) differences in functional traits related to water use, drought tolerance and growth and (iii) contrasting responses to temporal variation in water availability. We identified key differences between the species in both their range-wide climatic distributions (especially aridity index and mean annual temperature) and physiological traits in mature trees and seedlings, including daily water loss, hydraulic conductance, stress responses, growth rate and biomass allocation. Taken together, these differences explain the habitat partitioning that allows three closely related species to co-occur locally.

Dimensions of Blue Carbon and emerging perspectives

Blue Carbon is a term coined in 2009 to draw attention to the degradation of marine and coastal ecosystems and the need to conserve and restore them to mitigate climate change and for the other ecosystem services they provide. Blue Carbon has multiple meanings, which we aim to clarify here, which reflect the original descriptions of the concept including (1) all organic matter captured by marine organisms, and (2) how marine ecosystems could be managed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thereby contribute to climate change mitigation and conservation. The multifaceted nature of the Blue Carbon concept has led to unprecedented collaboration across disciplines, where scientists, conservationists and policy makers have interacted intensely to advance shared goals. Some coastal ecosystems (mangroves, tidal marshes and seagrass) are established Blue Carbon ecosystems as they often have high carbon stocks, support long-term carbon storage, offer the potential to manage greenhouse gas emissions and support other adaptation policies. Some marine ecosystems do not meet key criteria for inclusion within the Blue Carbon framework (e.g. fish, bivalves and coral reefs). Others have gaps in scientific understanding of carbon stocks or greenhouse gas fluxes, or currently there is limited potential for management or accounting for carbon sequestration (macroalgae and phytoplankton), but may be considered Blue Carbon ecosystems in the future, once these gaps are addressed.

Australian vegetated coastal ecosystems as global hotspots for climate change mitigation

Policies aiming to preserve vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCE; tidal marshes, mangroves and seagrasses) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions require national assessments of blue carbon resources. Here, we present organic carbon (C) storage in VCE across Australian climate regions and estimate potential annual CO₂ emission benefits of VCE conservation and restoration. Australia contributes 5–11% of the C stored in VCE globally (70–185 Tg C in aboveground biomass, and 1,055–1,540 Tg C in the upper 1 m of soils). Potential CO₂ emissions from current VCE losses are estimated at 2.1–3.1 Tg CO₂-e yr^-1, increasing annual CO₂ emissions from land use change in Australia by 12–21%. This assessment, the most comprehensive for any nation to-date, demonstrates the potential of conservation and restoration of VCE to underpin national policy development for reducing greenhouse gas emissions.

Policies aiming to preserve vegetated coastal ecosystems (VCE) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions require national assessments of blue carbon resources. Here the authors assessed organic carbon storage in VCE across Australian and the potential annual CO₂ emission benefits of VCE conservation and find that Australia contributes substantially the carbon stored in VCE globally.

The future of Blue Carbon science

The term Blue Carbon (BC) was first coined a decade ago to describe the disproportionately large contribution of coastal vegetated ecosystems to global carbon sequestration. The role of BC in climate change mitigation and adaptation has now reached international prominence. To help prioritise future research, we assembled leading experts in the field to agree upon the top-ten pending questions in BC science. Understanding how climate change affects carbon accumulation in mature BC ecosystems and during their restoration was a high priority. Controversial questions included the role of carbonate and macroalgae in BC cycling, and the degree to which greenhouse gases are released following disturbance of BC ecosystems. Scientists seek improved precision of the extent of BC ecosystems; techniques to determine BC provenance; understanding of the factors that influence sequestration in BC ecosystems, with the corresponding value of BC; and the management actions that are effective in enhancing this value. Overall this overview provides a comprehensive road map for the coming decades on future research in BC science.

The role of Blue Carbon in climate change mitigation and adaptation has now reached international prominence. Here the authors identified the top-ten unresolved questions in the field and find that most questions relate to the precise role blue carbon can play in mitigating climate change and the most effective management actions in maximising this.

Night and day: Shrinking and swelling of stems of diverse mangrove species growing along environmental gradients

Tree stems swell and shrink daily, which is thought to reflect changes in the volume of water within stem tissues. We observed these daily patterns using automatic dendrometer bands in a diverse group of mangrove species over five mangrove forests across Australia and New Caledonia. We found that mangrove stems swelled during the day and shrank at night. Maximum swelling was highly correlated with daily maxima in air temperature. Variation in soil salinity and levels of tidal inundation did not influence the timing of stem swelling over all species. Medium-term increases in stem circumference were highly sensitive to rainfall. We defoliated trees to assess the role of foliar transpiration in stem swelling and shrinking. Defoliated trees showed maintenance of the pattern of daytime swelling, indicating that processes other than canopy transpiration influence the temporary stem diameter increments, which could include thermal swelling of stems. More research is required to understand the processes contributing to stem shrinking and swelling. Automatic Dendrometer Bands could provide a useful tool for monitoring the response of mangroves to extreme climatic events as they provide high-frequency, long-term, and large-scale information on tree water status.

The roots of blue carbon: responses of mangrove stilt roots to variation in soil bulk density

Mangroves harbour large soil organic carbon (C) pools. These C stocks are attributed to the production and slow decomposition of the below-ground biomass. Novel in-growth containers were used to assess the effect of soil bulk density (BD: 0.4, 0.8 and 1.2 g cm-3) on morphological, anatomical and chemical traits of the below-ground fraction of aerial roots of the mangrove Rhizophora stylosa. Dense soils increased total root biomass and primary root diameter, while the primary root length decreased. Furthermore, high soil BD reduced aerenchyma lacunae and led to the formation of structural features such as fibrous strands. These morphological and anatomical changes were not reflected in tissue chemistry, with lignin levels averaging 17.0 ± 0.6%, although roots grown in high BD had higher nitrogen levels. This likely affects decomposition rates. Thus, variation in soil BD has major implications for C sequestration in Rhizophora-dominated mangroves.