Five palaeobiological laws needed to understand the evolution of the living biota

Ecosystem relocation on Snowball Earth: Polar-alpine ancestry of the extant surface biosphere?

Geological observations informed by climate dynamics imply that the oceans were 99.9% covered by light-blocking ice shelves during two discrete, self-reversing Snowball Earth epochs spanning a combined 60 to 70 Myr of the Cryogenian Period (720 to 635 Ma). The timescale for initial ice advances across the tropical oceans is ~300 y in an ice-atmosphere-ocean general circulation model in Cryogenian paleogeography. Areas of optically thin oceanic ice are usually invoked to account for fossil marine phototrophs, including macroscopic multicellular eukaryotes, before and after each Snowball, but different taxa. Ecosystem relocation is a scenario that does not require thin marine ice. Assume that long before Cryogenian Snowballs, diverse supra- and periglacial biomes were established in polar-alpine regions. When the Snowball onsets occurred, those biomes migrated in step with their ice margins to the equatorial zone of net sublimation. There, they prospered and evolved, their habitat areas expanded, and the cruelty of winter reduced. Nutrients were supplied by dust (loess) derived from cozonal ablative lands where surface winds were strong. When each Snowball finally ended, those biomes were mostly inundated by the meltwater-dominated and rapidly warming lid of a nutrient-rich but depauperate ocean. Some taxa returned to the mountaintops while others restocked the oceans. This ecosystem relocation scenario makes testable predictions. The lineages required for post-Cryogenian biotic radiations should be present in modern polar-alpine biomes. Legacies of polar-alpine ancestry should be found in the genomes of living organisms. Examples of such tests are highlighted herein.

Bioluminescence and repeated deep-sea colonization shaped the diversification and body size evolution of squaliform sharks

Understanding the underlying mechanisms that have generated the striking biodiversity inhabiting deep-sea ecosystems remains a challenge in evolutionary biology. Here, we addressed this topic by studying the macroevolutionary dynamics that have shaped the diversification of squaliform sharks, an iconic clade of deep-sea vertebrates. Using phylogenetic comparative methods and fossil-based Bayesian diversification estimates, both at species level, we combined fossil record data with molecular phylogenies to provide a quantitative framework for understanding the evolutionary history of Squaliformes. We reveal that early squaliform lineages originated in shallow water during the Early Cretaceous and experienced multiple independent shifts toward the deep sea during the Late Cretaceous. Importantly, we show that these shifts were likely facilitated by the acquisition of bioluminescence, which significantly impacted body size evolution among squaliform lineages. Furthermore, deep-sea colonization events coincide with periods of climate warming and marine transgression at the Cenomanian-Turonian and Palaeocene-Eocene transitions. Following these colonizations, deep-sea squaliform lineages have diversified over the last 30 Myr, resulting in one of the richest deep-sea radiations in sharks. These results demonstrate how the complex interplay between key innovation and colonization of new habitats drove major ecological transition, highlighting the importance of an integrative framework when studying deep-time macroevolutionary dynamics.

New beginnings for dead ends: polyploidy, -SSE models and the dead-end hypothesis

BACKGROUND

Since the mid-20th century, it has been argued by some that the transition from diploidy to polyploidy is an 'evolutionary dead end' in plants. Although this point has been debated ever since, multiple definitions of 'dead end' have been used in the polyploidy literature, without sufficient differentiation between alternative uses.

SCOPE

Here, we focus on the two most common conceptions of the dead-end hypothesis currently discussed: the 'lowering diversification' hypothesis and the 'rarely successful' hypothesis. We discuss the evidence for both hypotheses, and we use a recently developed method of inferring tip diversification rates to demonstrate tests for the effect of ploidy on diversification in Solanaceae.

CONCLUSIONS

We find that diversification rates in the family are not strongly correlated with ploidy or with the closely related trait of breeding system. We also outline recent work in the field that moves beyond the relatively simple question of whether polyploidy increases, decreases or does not significantly affect diversification rates in plants.

Biome evolution in subfamily Cercidoideae (Leguminosae): a tropical arborescent clade with a relictual depauperate temperate lineage

Some plant lineages remain within the same biome over time (biome conservatism), whereas others seem to adapt more easily to new biomes. The c. 398 species (14 genera) of subfamily Cercidoideae (Leguminosae or Fabaceae) are found in many biomes around the world, particularly in the tropical regions of South America, Asia and Africa, and display a variety of growth forms (small trees, shrubs, lianas and herbaceous perennials). Species distribution maps derived from cleaned occurrence records were compiled and compared with existing biome maps and with the literature to assign species to biomes. Rainforest (144 species), succulent (44 species), savanna (36 species), and temperate (10 species) biomes were found to be important in describing the global distribution of Cercidoideae, with many species occurring in more than one biome. Two phylogenetically isolated species-poor temperate (Cercis) and succulent (Adenolobus) biome lineages are sister to two broadly distributed species-rich tropical clades. Ancestral state reconstructions on a time-calibrated phylogeny suggest biome shifts occurred throughout the evolutionary history of the subfamily, with shifts between the succulent and rainforest biomes, from the rainforest to savanna, from the succulent to savanna biome, and one early occurring shift into (or from) the temperate biome. Of the 26 inferred shifts in biome, three are closely associated with a shift from the ancestral tree/shrub growth form to a liana or herbaceous perennial habit. Only three of the 13 inferred transcontinental dispersal events are associated with biome shifts. Overall, we find that biome shifts tend to occur within the same continent and that dispersals to new continents tend to occur within the same biome, but that nonetheless the biome-conserved and biogeographically structured Cercidoideae have been able to adapt to different environments through time.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40415-024-01058-z.

Morphological complexity promotes origination and extinction rates in ammonoids

The causes of heterogeneity in evolutionary rates are a key question in macroevolution. Origination and extinction rates are closely related to abiotic factors, such as climate1,2 and geography,3,4 as well as biotic factors such as taxonomic richness5,6 and morphology,7 which are influenced by phylogeny.8,9 Studies on the relationship between morphology and macroevolution have focused on morphological traits, including body size,6,7,9 shape,10 color,11,12 and complexity,13,14,15 and have proposed biological laws, such as the zero-force evolutionary law16 and Cope's rule.17 However, the relationship between morphological complexity and turnover rates remains poorly defined because of the lack of suitable measures for various subjects.18,19 Here, we establish a quantitative method, the two-dimensional ornamentation index (2D-OI), which allows the description of the ornamental complexity of ammonoids. Ammonoids are one of the most abundant and well-studied fossil groups, with complex conch structures.20 Ammonoids display some similarities with trilobites and mammals21,22 in terms of their high evolutionary rates; however, the underlying mechanisms remain elusive. Moreover, ammonoids exhibit marked heterogeneity in turnover rates across spatiotemporal scales23 and clades,23,24 making them key clades for investigating the relationship between turnover rates and morphological complexity. The results show that morphologically complex genera and species often have higher origination and extinction rates than morphologically simple taxa. Diversity fluctuations of taxa with complex ornamentation generally overimprint and control the overall net diversification rates of ammonoids. This double-edged sword of rapid evolution and increased extinction risk driven by complex morphologies has significant implications for our understanding of how species survive over geological timescales.

Tangled banks, braided rivers, and complex hierarchies: beyond microevolution and macroevolution

Ever since the Modern Synthesis, a debate about the relationship between microevolution and macroevolution has persisted-specifically, whether they are equivalent, distinct, or explain one another. How one answers these questions has become shorthand for a much broader set of theoretical debates in evolutionary biology. Here, we examine microevolution and macroevolution in the context of the vast proliferation of data, knowledge, and theory since the advent of the Modern Synthesis. We suggest that traditional views on microevolution and macroevolution are too binary and reductive given current empirical and theoretical advances in biology. For example, patterns and processes are interconnected at various temporal and spatial scales and among hierarchical entities, rather than defining micro- or macro-domains. Further, biological entities have variably fuzzy boundaries, resulting in complex evolutionary processes that influence macroevolution occuring at both micro- and macro-levels. In addition, conceptual advances in phylodynamics have yet to be fully integrated with contemporary macroevolutionary approaches. Finally, holding microevolution and macroevolution as distinct domains thwarts synthesis and collaboration on important research questions. Instead, we propose that the focal entities and processes considered by evolutionary studies be contextualized within the complexity of the multidimensional, multimodal, multilevel phylogenetic system.

Ediacaran origin and Ediacaran-Cambrian diversification of Metazoa

The timescale of animal diversification has been a focus of debate over how evolutionary history should be calibrated to geologic time. Molecular clock analyses have invariably estimated a Cryogenian or Tonian origin of animals while unequivocal animal fossils first occur in the Ediacaran. However, redating of key Ediacaran biotas and the discovery of several Ediacaran crown-Metazoa prompt recalibration of molecular clock analyses. We present revised fossil calibrations and use them in molecular clock analyses estimating the timescale of metazoan evolutionary history. Integrating across uncertainties including phylogenetic relationships, clock model, and calibration strategy, we estimate Metazoa to have originated in the early Ediacaran, Eumetazoa in the middle Ediacaran, and Bilateria in the upper Ediacaran, with many crown-phyla originating across the Ediacaran-Cambrian interval or elsewise fully within the Cambrian. These results are in much closer accord with the fossil record, coinciding with marine oxygenation, but they reject a literal reading of the fossil record.

Genomic insights into adaptive evolution of the species-rich cosmopolitan plant genus Rhododendron

The species-rich cosmopolitan genus Rhododendron offers a good system for exploring the genomic mechanisms underlying adaptation to diverse habitats. Here, we report high-quality chromosomal-level genome assemblies of nine species, representing all five subgenera, different altitudinal distributions, and all flower color types of this genus. Further comprehensive genomic analyses indicate diverse adaptive strategies employed by Rhododendron, particularly adaptation to alpine and subalpine habitats by expansion/contraction of gene families involved in pathogen defense and oxidative phosphorylation, genomic convergent evolution, and gene copy-number variation. The convergent adaptation to high altitudes is further shown by population genomic analysis of R. nivale from the Himalaya-Hengduan Mountains. Moreover, we identify the genes involved in the biosynthesis of anthocyanins and carotenoids, which play a crucial role in shaping flower color diversity and environmental adaptation. Our study is significant for comprehending plant adaptive evolution and the uneven distribution of species diversity across different geographical regions.

The global loss of avian functional and phylogenetic diversity from anthropogenic extinctions

Humans have been driving a global erosion of species richness for millennia, but the consequences of past extinctions for other dimensions of biodiversity-functional and phylogenetic diversity-are poorly understood. In this work, we show that, since the Late Pleistocene, the extinction of 610 bird species has caused a disproportionate loss of the global avian functional space along with ~3 billion years of unique evolutionary history. For island endemics, proportional losses have been even greater. Projected future extinctions of more than 1000 species over the next two centuries will incur further substantial reductions in functional and phylogenetic diversity. These results highlight the severe consequences of the ongoing biodiversity crisis and the urgent need to identify the ecological functions being lost through extinction.

Bayesian tip-dated phylogeny and biogeography of Cissampelideae (Menispermaceae): Mitigating the effects of homoplastic morphological characters

The integration of morphological and molecular data is essential to understand the affinities of fossil taxa and spatio-temporal evolutionary processes of organisms. However, homoplastic morphological characters can mislead the placement of fossil taxa and impact downstream analyses. Here, we provide an example of how to mitigate effectively the effect of morphological homoplasy on the placement of fossil taxa and biogeographic inferences of Cissampelideae. We assembled three data types, morphological data only, morphological data with a molecular scaffold and combined morphological and molecular data. By removing high-level homoplastic morphological data or reweighting the morphological characters, we conducted 15 parsimony, 12 undated Bayesian and four dated Bayesian analyses. Our results show that the 14 selected Cissampelideae fossil taxa are placed poorly when based only on morphological data, but the addition of molecular scaffold and combination of morphological and molecular data greatly improve the resolution of fossil nodes. We raise the monotypic Stephania subg. Botryodiscia to generic status and discover that three fossils previously assigned to Stephania should be members of Diploclisia. The Bayesian tip-dated tree recovered by removing homoplastic morphological characters with a Rescaled Consistency Index <0.25 has the highest stratigraphic fit and consequently generates more reasonable biogeographic reconstruction for Cissampelideae. Cissampelideae began to diversify in Asia in the latest Cretaceous and subsequently dispersed to South America around the Cretaceous-Palaeogene boundary. Two dispersal events from Asia to Africa occurred in the Early Eocene and the Late Eocene-Late Oligocene, respectively. These findings provide guidelines and practical methods for mitigating the effects of homoplastic morphological characters on fossil placements and Bayesian tip-dating, as well as insights into the past tropical floristic exchanges among different continents.

Reliable estimation of tree branch lengths using deep neural networks

A phylogenetic tree represents hypothesized evolutionary history for a set of taxa. Besides the branching patterns (i.e., tree topology), phylogenies contain information about the evolutionary distances (i.e. branch lengths) between all taxa in the tree, which include extant taxa (external nodes) and their last common ancestors (internal nodes). During phylogenetic tree inference, the branch lengths are typically co-estimated along with other phylogenetic parameters during tree topology space exploration. There are well-known regions of the branch length parameter space where accurate estimation of phylogenetic trees is especially difficult. Several novel studies have recently demonstrated that machine learning approaches have the potential to help solve phylogenetic problems with greater accuracy and computational efficiency. In this study, as a proof of concept, we sought to explore the possibility of machine learning models to predict branch lengths. To that end, we designed several deep learning frameworks to estimate branch lengths on fixed tree topologies from multiple sequence alignments or its representations. Our results show that deep learning methods can exhibit superior performance in some difficult regions of branch length parameter space. For example, in contrast to maximum likelihood inference, which is typically used for estimating branch lengths, deep learning methods are more efficient and accurate. In general, we find that our neural networks achieve similar accuracy to a Bayesian approach and are the best-performing methods when inferring long branches that are associated with distantly related taxa. Together, our findings represent a next step toward accurate, fast, and reliable phylogenetic inference with machine learning approaches.

A critique of Thompson and Ramírez-Barahona (2023) or: how I learned to stop worrying and love the fossil record

A recent study published in Biology Letters by Thompson and Ramírez-Barahona (2023) argued that, according to analyses of diversification on two massive molecular phylogenies comprising thousands of species, there is no evidence that angiosperms (i.e. flowering plants) were affected by the Cretaceous-Paleogene mass extinction. Here, I critique these conclusions from both methodological and philosophical perspectives. I demonstrate that the methods used in their study possess statistical limitations that strongly reduce the power to detect a true mass extinction event using data similar to those analysed by Thompson and Ramírez-Barahona (2023). Additionally, I use their study as a springboard to examine the relationship between phylogenetic and fossil evidence in diversification studies.

Unveiling the underlying drivers of Phanerozoic marine diversification

In investigating global patterns of biodiversity through deep time, many large-scale drivers of diversification have been proposed, both biotic and abiotic. However, few robust conclusions about these hypothesized effectors or their roles have been drawn. Here, we use a linear stochastic differential equation (SDE) framework to test for the presence of underlying drivers of diversification patterns before examining specific hypothesized drivers. Using a global dataset of observations of skeletonized marine fossils, we infer origination, extinction and sampling rates (collectively called fossil time series) throughout the Phanerozoic using a capture-mark-recapture approach. Using linear SDEs, we then compare models including and excluding hidden (i.e. unmeasured) drivers of these fossil time series. We find evidence of large-scale underlying drivers of marine Phanerozoic diversification rates and present quantitative characterizations of these. We then test whether changing global temperature, sea-level, marine sediment area or continental fragmentation could act as drivers of the fossil time series. We show that it is unlikely any of these four abiotic factors are the hidden drivers we identified, though there is evidence for correlative links between sediment area and origination/extinction rates. Our characterization of the hidden drivers of Phanerozoic diversification and sampling will aid in the search for their ultimate identities.

A new abelisaurid dinosaur from the end Cretaceous of Patagonia and evolutionary rates among the Ceratosauria

Gondwanan dinosaur faunae during the 20 Myr preceding the Cretaceous-Palaeogene (K/Pg) extinction included several lineages that were absent or poorly represented in Laurasian landmasses. Among these, the South American fossil record contains diverse abelisaurids, arguably the most successful groups of carnivorous dinosaurs from Gondwana in the Cretaceous, reaching their highest diversity towards the end of this period. Here we describe Koleken inakayali gen. et sp. n., a new abelisaurid from the La Colonia Formation (Maastrichtian, Upper Cretaceous) of Patagonia. Koleken inakayali is known from several skull bones, an almost complete dorsal series, complete sacrum, several caudal vertebrae, pelvic girdle and almost complete hind limbs. The new abelisaurid shows a unique set of features in the skull and several anatomical differences from Carnotaurus sastrei (the only other abelisaurid known from the La Colonia Formation). Koleken inakayali is retrieved as a brachyrostran abelisaurid, clustered with other South American abelisaurids from the latest Cretaceous (Campanian-Maastrichtian), such as Aucasaurus, Niebla and Carnotaurus. Leveraging our phylogeny estimates, we explore rates of morphological evolution across ceratosaurian lineages, finding them to be particularly high for elaphrosaurine noasaurids and around the base of Abelisauridae, before the Early Cretaceous radiation of the latter clade. The Noasauridae and their sister clade show contrasting patterns of morphological evolution, with noasaurids undergoing an early phase of accelerated evolution of the axial and hind limb skeleton in the Jurassic, and the abelisaurids exhibiting sustained high rates of cranial evolution during the Early Cretaceous. These results provide much needed context for the evolutionary dynamics of ceratosaurian theropods, contributing to broader understanding of macroevolutionary patterns across dinosaurs.

Imbalanced speciation pulses sustain the radiation of mammals

The evolutionary histories of major clades, including mammals, often comprise changes in their diversification dynamics, but how these changes occur remains debated. We combined comprehensive phylogenetic and fossil information in a new "birth-death diffusion" model that provides a detailed characterization of variation in diversification rates in mammals. We found an early rising and sustained diversification scenario, wherein speciation rates increased before and during the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary. The K-Pg mass extinction event filtered out more slowly speciating lineages and was followed by a subsequent slowing in speciation rates rather than rebounds. These dynamics arose from an imbalanced speciation process, with separate lineages giving rise to many, less speciation-prone descendants. Diversity seems to have been brought about by these isolated, fast-speciating lineages, rather than by a few punctuated innovations.

Primitive purine biosynthesis connects ancient geochemistry to modern metabolism

An unresolved question in the origin and evolution of life is whether a continuous path from geochemical precursors to the majority of molecules in the biosphere can be reconstructed from modern-day biochemistry. Here we identified a feasible path by simulating the evolution of biosphere-scale metabolism, using only known biochemical reactions and models of primitive coenzymes. We find that purine synthesis constitutes a bottleneck for metabolic expansion, which can be alleviated by non-autocatalytic phosphoryl coupling agents. Early phases of the expansion are enriched with enzymes that are metal dependent and structurally symmetric, supporting models of early biochemical evolution. This expansion trajectory suggests distinct hypotheses regarding the tempo, mode and timing of metabolic pathway evolution, including a late appearance of methane metabolisms and oxygenic photosynthesis consistent with the geochemical record. The concordance between biological and geological analyses suggests that this trajectory provides a plausible evolutionary history for the vast majority of core biochemistry.

Incorporating fossils into the joint inference of phylogeny and biogeography of the tree fern order Cyatheales

Present-day geographic and phylogenetic patterns often reflect the geological and climatic history of the planet. Neontological distribution data are often sufficient to unravel a lineage's biogeographic history, yet ancestral range inferences can be at odds with fossil evidence. Here, I use the fossilized birth-death process and the dispersal-extinction cladogenesis model to jointly infer the dated phylogeny and range evolution of the tree fern order Cyatheales. I use data for 101 fossil and 442 extant tree ferns to reconstruct the biogeographic history of the group over the last 220 million years. Fossil-aware reconstructions evince a prolonged occupancy of Laurasia over the Triassic-Cretaceous by Cyathealean tree ferns, which is evident in the fossil record but hidden from analyses relying on neontological data alone. Nonetheless, fossil-aware reconstructions are affected by uncertainty in fossils' phylogenetic placement, taphonomic biases, and specimen sampling and are sensitive to interpretation of paleodistributions and how these are scored. The present results highlight the need and challenges of incorporating fossils into joint inferences of phylogeny and biogeography to improve the reliability of ancestral geographic range estimation.

The importance of continents, oceans and plate tectonics for the evolution of complex life: implications for finding extraterrestrial civilizations

Within the uncertainties of involved astronomical and biological parameters, the Drake Equation typically predicts that there should be many exoplanets in our galaxy hosting active, communicative civilizations (ACCs). These optimistic calculations are however not supported by evidence, which is often referred to as the Fermi Paradox. Here, we elaborate on this long-standing enigma by showing the importance of planetary tectonic style for biological evolution. We summarize growing evidence that a prolonged transition from Mesoproterozoic active single lid tectonics (1.6 to 1.0 Ga) to modern plate tectonics occurred in the Neoproterozoic Era (1.0 to 0.541 Ga), which dramatically accelerated emergence and evolution of complex species. We further suggest that both continents and oceans are required for ACCs because early evolution of simple life must happen in water but late evolution of advanced life capable of creating technology must happen on land. We resolve the Fermi Paradox (1) by adding two additional terms to the Drake Equation: foc (the fraction of habitable exoplanets with significant continents and oceans) and fpt (the fraction of habitable exoplanets with significant continents and oceans that have had plate tectonics operating for at least 0.5 Ga); and (2) by demonstrating that the product of foc and fpt is very small (< 0.00003-0.002). We propose that the lack of evidence for ACCs reflects the scarcity of long-lived plate tectonics and/or continents and oceans on exoplanets with primitive life.

Age-dependent extinction and the neutral theory of biodiversity

Red Queen (RQ) theory states that adaptation does not protect species from extinction because their competitors are continually adapting alongside them. RQ was founded on the apparent independence of extinction risk and fossil taxon age, but analytical developments have since demonstrated that age-dependent extinction is widespread, usually most intense among young species. Here, we develop ecological neutral theory as a general framework for modeling fossil species survivorship under incomplete sampling. We show that it provides an excellent fit to a high-resolution dataset of species durations for Paleozoic zooplankton and more broadly can account for age-dependent extinction seen throughout the fossil record. Unlike widely used alternative models, the neutral model has parameters with biological meaning, thereby generating testable hypotheses on changes in ancient ecosystems. The success of this approach suggests reinterpretations of mass extinctions and of scaling in eco-evolutionary systems. Intense extinction among young species does not necessarily refute RQ or require a special explanation but can instead be parsimoniously explained by neutral dynamics operating across species regardless of age.

Speciation-by-Extinction

Extinction is a dominant force shaping patterns of biodiversity through time; however its role as a catalyst of speciation through its interaction with intraspecific variation has been overlooked. Here, we synthesize ideas alluded to by Darwin and others into the model of "speciation-by-extinction" in which speciation results from the extinction of intermediate populations within a single geographically variable species. We explore the properties and distinguishing features of speciation-by-extinction with respect to other established speciation models. We demonstrate its plausibility by showing that the experimental extinction of populations within variable species can result in speciation. The prerequisites for speciation-by-extinction, geographically structured intraspecific variation and local extinction, are ubiquitous in nature. We propose that speciation-by-extinction may be a prevalent, but underappreciated, speciation mechanism.

Reconciling fossils with phylogenies reveals the origin and macroevolutionary processes explaining the global cycad biodiversity

The determinants of biodiversity patterns can be understood using macroevolutionary analyses. The integration of fossils into phylogenies offers a deeper understanding of processes underlying biodiversity patterns in deep time. Cycadales are considered a relict of a once more diverse and globally distributed group but are restricted to low latitudes today. We still know little about their origin and geographic range evolution. Combining molecular data for extant species and leaf morphological data for extant and fossil species, we study the origin of cycad global biodiversity patterns through Bayesian total-evidence dating analyses. We assess the ancestral geographic origin and trace the historical biogeography of cycads with a time-stratified process-based model. Cycads originated in the Carboniferous on the Laurasian landmass and expanded in Gondwana in the Jurassic. Through now-vanished continental connections, Antarctica and Greenland were crucial biogeographic crossroads for cycad biogeography. Vicariance is an essential speciation mode in the deep and recent past. Their latitudinal span increased in the Jurassic and restrained toward subtropical latitudes in the Neogene in line with biogeographic inferences of high-latitude extirpations. We show the benefits of integrating fossils into phylogenies to estimate ancestral areas of origin and to study evolutionary processes explaining the global distribution of present-day relict groups.

Frameworks for Interpreting the Early Fossil Record of Eukaryotes

The origin of modern eukaryotes is one of the key transitions in life's history, and also one of the least understood. Although the fossil record provides the most direct view of this process, interpreting the fossils of early eukaryotes and eukaryote-grade organisms is not straightforward. We present two end-member models for the evolution of modern (i.e., crown) eukaryotes-one in which modern eukaryotes evolved early, and another in which they evolved late-and interpret key fossils within these frameworks, including where they might fit in eukaryote phylogeny and what they may tell us about the evolution of eukaryotic cell biology and ecology. Each model has different implications for understanding the rise of complex life on Earth, including different roles of Earth surface oxygenation, and makes different predictions that future paleontological studies can test.

Integrating Fossil Flowers into the Angiosperm Phylogeny Using Molecular and Morphological Evidence

Fossils are essential to infer past evolutionary processes. The assignment of fossils to extant clades has traditionally relied on morphological similarity and on apomorphies shared with extant taxa. The use of explicit phylogenetic analyses to establish fossil affinities has so far remained limited. In this study, we built a comprehensive framework to investigate the phylogenetic placement of 24 exceptionally preserved fossil flowers. For this, we assembled a new species-level data set of 30 floral traits for 1201 extant species that were sampled to capture the stem and crown nodes of all angiosperm families. We explored multiple analytical approaches to integrate the fossils into the phylogeny, including different phylogenetic estimation methods, topological-constrained analyses, and combining molecular and morphological data of extant and fossil species. Our results were widely consistent across approaches and showed minor differences in the support of fossils at different phylogenetic positions. The placement of some fossils agrees with previously suggested relationships, but for others, a new placement is inferred. We also identified fossils that are well supported within particular extant families, whereas others showed high phylogenetic uncertainty. Finally, we present recommendations for future analyses combining molecular and morphological evidence, regarding the selection of fossils and appropriate methodologies, and provide some perspectives on how to integrate fossils into the investigation of divergence times and the temporal evolution of morphological traits. [Angiosperms; fossil flowers; phylogenetic uncertainty; RoguePlots.].

Science and the legal rights of nature

We review the use of science by lawmakers and courts in implementing or rejecting legal rights for nature in Ecuador, India, the United States, and other jurisdictions where some type of rights of nature have been recognized in the legal system. We then use the "right to evolve" to exemplify how interdisciplinary work can (i) help courts effectively define what this right might entail; (ii) inform how it might be applied in different circumstances; and (iii) provide a template for how scientists and legal scholars can generate the interdisciplinary scholarship necessary to understand and implement the growing body of rights-of-nature laws, and environmental law more generally. We conclude by pointing to what further research is needed to understand and effectively implement the growing body of rights-of-nature laws.

Cross-disciplinary information for understanding macroevolution

Many different macroevolutionary models can produce the same observations. Despite efforts in building more complex and realistic models, it may still be difficult to distinguish the processes that have generated the biodiversity we observe. In this opinion we argue that we can make new progress by reaching out across disciplines, relying on independent data and theory to constrain macroevolutionary inference. Using mainly paleontological insights and data, we illustrate how we can eliminate less plausible or implausible models, and/or parts of parameter space, while applying comparative phylogenetic approaches. We emphasize that such cross-disciplinary insights and data can be drawn between many other disciplines relevant to macroevolution. We urge cross-disciplinary training, and collaboration using common-use databases as a platform for increasing our understanding.

Forty years later: The status of the "Big Five" mass extinctions

Over 40 years ago, Raup and Sepkoski identified five episodes of elevated extinction in the marine fossil record that were thought to be statistically distinct, thus warranting the term the "Big Five" mass extinctions. Since then, the term has become part of standard vocabulary, especially with the naming of the current biodiversity crisis as the "sixth mass extinction." However, there is no general agreement on which time intervals should be viewed as mass extinctions, in part because the Big Five turn out not to be statistically distinct from background rates of extinction, and in part, because other intervals of time have even higher extinction rates, in the Cambrian and early Ordovician. Nonetheless, the Big Five represent the five largest events since the early Ordovician, including in analyses that attempt to compensate for the incompleteness of the fossil and rock records. In the last 40 years, we have learned a great deal about the causes of many of the major and minor extinction events and are beginning to unravel the mechanisms that translated the initial environmental disturbances into extinction. However, for many of the events, further understanding will require going back to the outcrop, where the patchy distribution of environments and pervasive temporal gaps in the rock record challenge our ability to establish true extinction patterns. As for the current biodiversity crisis, there is no doubt that the rate of extinction is among the highest ever experienced by the biosphere, perhaps the second highest after the end-Cretaceous bolide impact. However (and fortunately), the absolute number of extinctions is still relatively small - there is still time to prevent this becoming a genuine mass extinction. Given the arbitrariness of calling out the Big Five, perhaps the current crisis should be called the "incipient Anthropocene mass extinction" rather than the "sixth mass extinction."

Evolutionary time and species diversity in aquatic ecosystems worldwide

The latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is frequently described as the most dramatic biodiversity pattern on Earth, yet ecologists and biogeographers have failed to reach consensus on its primary cause. A key problem in explaining the LDG involves collinearity between multiple factors that are predicted to affect species richness in the same direction. In terrestrial systems, energy input, geographic area, and evolutionary time for species accumulation tend to covary positively with species richness at the largest spatial scales, such that their individual contributions to the LDG are confounded in global analyses. I review three diversity patterns from marine and freshwater systems that break this collinearity and which may thus provide stronger tests of the influence of time on global richness gradients. Specifically, I contrast biodiversity patterns along oceanic depth gradients, in geologically young versus ancient lakes, and in the north versus south polar marine biomes. I focus primarily on fishes due to greater data availability but synthesize patterns for invertebrates where possible. I find that regional-to-global species richness generally declines with depth in the oceans, despite the great age and stability of the deep-sea biome. Geologically ancient lakes generally do not contain more species than young lakes, and the Antarctic marine biome is not appreciably more species rich than the much younger Arctic marine biome. However, endemism is consistently higher in older systems. Patterns for invertebrate groups are less clear than for fishes and reflect a critical need for primary biodiversity data. In summary, the available data suggest that species richness is either decoupled from or only weakly related to the amount of time for diversification. These results suggest that energy, productivity, or geographic area are the primary drivers of large-scale diversity gradients. To the extent that marine and terrestrial diversity gradients result from similar processes, these examples provide evidence against a primary role for evolutionary time as the cause of the LDG.

Variation in macroevolutionary dynamics among extant primates

Objectives

This study examines how speciation and extinction rates vary across primates, with a focus on the recent macroevolutionary dynamics that have shaped extant primate biodiversity.

Materials and methods

Lineage‐specific macroevolutionary rates were estimated for each tip in a tree containing 307 species using a hidden‐state likelihood model. Differences in tip rates among major clades were evaluated using phylogenetic ANOVA. Differences among diurnal, nocturnal, and cathemeral lineages were also evaluated, based on previous work indicating that activity pattern influences primate diversification.

Results

Rate variation in extant primates is low within clades and high between clades. As in previous studies, cercopithecoids stand out in having high net diversification rates, driven by high speciation rates and very low extinction rates. Platyrrhines combine high speciation and high extinction rates, giving them high rates of lineage turnover. Strepsirrhines and tarsiids have low rates of speciation, extinction, turnover, and net diversification. Hominoids are intermediate between platyrrhines and the strepsirrhine‐tarsiid group, and there is evidence for differentiation between hominids and hylobatids. Diurnal lineages have significantly higher speciation rates than nocturnal lineages.

Conclusions

Recent anthropoid macroevolution has been characterized by marked variation in diversification dynamics among clades. Strepsirrhines and tarsiids are more uniform, despite divergent evolutionary and biogeographic histories. Higher speciation rates in diurnal lineages may be driven by greater ecological opportunity or reliance on visual signals for mate recognition. However, the differences among anthropoids indicate that factors other than activity pattern (e.g., clade competition, historical contingency) have had a more influential role in shaping recent primate diversification.

A phylogenetic study to assess the link between biome specialization and diversification in swallowtail butterflies

The resource-use hypothesis, proposed by E.S. Vrba, states that habitat fragmentation caused by climatic oscillations would affect particularly biome specialists (species inhabiting only one biome), which might show higher speciation and extinction rates than biome generalists. If true, lineages would accumulate biome-specialist species. This effect would be particularly exacerbated for biomes located at the periphery of the global climatic conditions, namely, biomes that have high/low precipitation and high/low temperature such as rainforest (warm-humid), desert (warm-dry), steppe (cold-dry) and tundra (cold-humid). Here, we test these hypotheses in swallowtail butterflies, a clade with more than 570 species, covering all the continents but Antarctica, and all climatic conditions. Swallowtail butterflies are among the most studied insects, and they are a model group for evolutionary biology and ecology studies. Continental macroecological rules are normally tested using vertebrates, this means that there are fewer examples exploring terrestrial invertebrate patterns at global scale. Here, we compiled a large Geographic Information System database on swallowtail butterflies' distribution maps and used the most complete time-calibrated phylogeny to quantify diversification rates (DRs). In this paper, we aim to answer the following questions: (1) Are there more biome-specialist swallowtail butterflies than biome generalists? (2) Is DR related to biome specialization? (3) If so, do swallowtail butterflies inhabiting extreme biomes show higher DRs? (4) What is the effect of species distribution area? Our results showed that swallowtail family presents a great number of biome specialists which showed substantially higher DRs compared to generalists. We also found that biome specialists are unevenly distributed across biomes. Overall, our results are consistent with the resource-use hypothesis, species climatic niche and biome fragmentation as key factors promoting isolation.

Mapping species diversification metrics in macroecology: Prospects and challenges

The intersection of macroecology and macroevolution is one of today’s most active research in biology. In the last decade, we have witnessed a steady increment of macroecological studies that use metrics attempting to capture macroevolutionary processes to explain present-day biodiversity patterns. Evolutionary explanations of current species richness gradients are fundamental for understanding how diversity accumulates in a region. Although multiple hypotheses have been proposed to explain the patterns we observe in nature, it is well-known that the present-day diversity patterns result from speciation, extinction, colonization from nearby areas, or a combination of these macroevolutionary processes. Whether these metrics capture macroevolutionary processes across space is unknown. Some tip-rate metrics calculated directly from a phylogenetic tree (e.g., mean root distance -MRD-; mean diversification rate -mDR-) seem to return very similar geographical patterns regardless of how they are estimated (e.g., using branch lengths explicitly or not). Model-based tip-rate metrics —those estimated using macroevolutionary mixtures, e.g., the BAMM approach— seem to provide better net diversification estimates than only speciation rates. We argue that the lack of appropriate estimates of extinction and dispersal rates in phylogenetic trees may strongly limit our inferences about how species richness gradients have emerged at spatial and temporal scales. Here, we present a literature review about this topic and empirical comparisons between select taxa with several of these metrics. We implemented a simple null model approach to evaluate whether mapping of these metrics deviates from a random sampling process. We show that phylogenetic metrics by themselves are relatively poor at capturing speciation, extinction, and dispersal processes across geographical gradients. Furthermore, we provide evidence of how parametric biogeographic methods can improve our inference of past events and, therefore, our conclusions about the evolutionary processes driving biodiversity patterns. We recommend that further studies include several approaches simultaneously (e.g., spatial diversification modeling, parametric biogeographic methods, simulations) to disentangle the relative role of speciation, extinction, and dispersal in the generation and maintenance of species richness gradients at regional and global scales.

Genomic-Phenomic Reciprocal Illumination: Desyopone hereon gen. et sp. nov., an Exceptional Aneuretine-like Fossil Ant from Ethiopian Amber (Hymenoptera: Formicidae: Ponerinae)

Fossils are critical for understanding the evolutionary diversification, turnover, and morphological disparification of extant lineages. While fossils cannot be sequenced, phenome-scale data may be generated using micro-computed tomography (µ-CT), thus revealing hidden structures and internal anatomy, when preserved. Here, we adduce the male caste of a new fossil ant species from Miocene Ethiopian amber that resembles members of the Aneuretinae, matching the operational definition of the subfamily. Through the use of synchrotron radiation for µ-CT, we critically test the aneuretine-identity hypothesis. Our results indicate that the new fossils do not belong to the Aneuretinae, but rather the Ponerini (Ponerinae). Informed by recent phylogenomic studies, we were able to place the fossils close to the extant genus Cryptopone based on logical character analysis, with the two uniquely sharing absence of the subpetiolar process among all ponerine genera. Consequently, we: (1) revise the male-based key to the global ant subfamilies; (2) revise the definitions of Aneuretinae, Ponerinae, Platythyreini, and Ponerini; (3) discuss the evolution of ant mandibles; and (4) describe the fossils as †Desyopone hereon gen. et sp. nov. Our study highlights the value of males for ant systematics and the tremendous potential of phenomic imaging technologies for the study of ant evolution.

Cell types as species: Exploring a metaphor

The concept of "cell type," though fundamental to cell biology, is controversial. Cells have historically been classified into types based on morphology, physiology, or location. More recently, single cell transcriptomic studies have revealed fine-scale differences among cells with similar gross phenotypes. Transcriptomic snapshots of cells at various stages of differentiation, and of cells under different physiological conditions, have shown that in many cases variation is more continuous than discrete, raising questions about the relationship between cell type and cell state. Some researchers have rejected the notion of fixed types altogether. Throughout the history of discussions on cell type, cell biologists have compared the problem of defining cell type with the interminable and often contentious debate over the definition of arguably the most important concept in systematics and evolutionary biology, "species." In the last decades, systematics, like cell biology, has been transformed by the increasing availability of molecular data, and the fine-grained resolution of genetic relationships have generated new ideas about how that variation should be classified. There are numerous parallels between the two fields that make exploration of the "cell types as species" metaphor timely. These parallels begin with philosophy, with discussion of both cell types and species as being either individuals, groups, or something in between (e.g., homeostatic property clusters). In each field there are various different types of lineages that form trees or networks that can (and in some cases do) provide criteria for grouping. Developing and refining models for evolutionary divergence of species and for cell type differentiation are parallel goals of the two fields. The goal of this essay is to highlight such parallels with the hope of inspiring biologists in both fields to look for new solutions to similar problems outside of their own field.

The role of paleontological data in bryophyte systematics

Systematics reconstructs tempo and mode in biological evolution by resolving the phylogenetic fabric of biodiversity. The staggering duration and complexity of evolution, coupled with loss of information (extinction), render exhaustive reconstruction of the evolutionary history of life unattainable. Instead, we sample its products-phenotypes and genotypes-to generate phylogenetic hypotheses, which we sequentially reassess and update against new data. Current consensus in evolutionary biology emphasizes fossil integration in total-evidence analyses, requiring in-depth understanding of fossils-age, phenotypes, and systematic affinities-and a detailed morphological framework uniting fossil and extant taxa. Bryophytes present a special case: deep evolutionary history but sparse fossil record and phenotypic diversity encompassing small dimensional scales. We review how these peculiarities shape fossil inclusion in bryophyte systematics. Paucity of the bryophyte fossil record, driven primarily by phenotypic (small plant size) and ecological constraints (patchy substrate-hugging populations), and incomplete exploration, results in many morphologically isolated, taxonomically ambiguous fossil taxa. Nevertheless, instances of exquisite preservation and pioneering studies demonstrate the feasibility of including bryophyte fossils in evolutionary inference. Further progress will arise from developing extensive morphological matrices for bryophytes, continued exploration of the fossil record, re-evaluation of previously described fossils, and training specialists in identification and characterization of bryophyte fossils, and in bryophyte morphology.

Evolvability and Macroevolution: Overview and Synthesis

Evolvability is best addressed from a multi-level, macroevolutionary perspective through a comparative approach that tests for among-clade differences in phenotypic diversification in response to an opportunity, such as encountered after a mass extinction, entering a new adaptive zone, or entering a new geographic area. Analyzing the dynamics of clades under similar environmental conditions can (partially) factor out shared external drivers to recognize intrinsic differences in evolvability, aiming for a macroevolutionary analog of a common-garden experiment. Analyses will be most powerful when integrating neontological and paleontological data: determining differences among extant populations that can be hypothesized to generate large-scale, long-term contrasts in evolvability among clades; or observing large-scale differences among clade histories that can by hypothesized to reflect contrasts in genetics and development observed directly in extant populations. However, many comparative analyses can be informative on their own, as explored in this overview. Differences in clade-level evolvability can be visualized in diversity-disparity plots, which can quantify positive and negative departures of phenotypic productivity from stochastic expectations scaled to taxonomic diversification. Factors that evidently can promote evolvability include modularity—when selection aligns with modular structure or with morphological integration patterns; pronounced ontogenetic changes in morphology, as in allometry or multiphase life cycles; genome size; and a variety of evolutionary novelties, which can also be evaluated using macroevolutionary lags between the acquisition of a trait and phenotypic diversification, and dead-clade-walking patterns that may signal a loss of evolvability when extrinsic factors can be excluded. High speciation rates may indirectly foster phenotypic evolvability, and vice versa. Mechanisms are controversial, but clade evolvability may be higher in the Cambrian, and possibly early in the history of clades at other times; in the tropics; and, for marine organisms, in shallow-water disturbed habitats.

Studying speciation and extinction dynamics from phylogenies: addressing identifiability issues

A lot of what we know about past speciation and extinction dynamics is based on statistically fitting birth-death processes to phylogenies of extant species. Despite their wide use, the reliability of these tools is regularly questioned. It was recently demonstrated that vast 'congruent' sets of alternative diversification histories cannot be distinguished (i.e., are not identifiable) using extant phylogenies alone, reanimating the debate about the limits of phylogenetic diversification analysis. Here, we summarize what we know about the identifiability of the birth-death process and how identifiability issues can be addressed. We conclude that extant phylogenies, when combined with appropriate prior hypotheses and regularization techniques, can still tell us a lot about past diversification dynamics.

The Occurrence Birth-Death Process for combined-evidence analysis in macroevolution and epidemiology

Phylodynamic models generally aim at jointly inferring phylogenetic relationships, model parameters, and more recently, the number of lineages through time, based on molecular sequence data. In the fields of epidemiology and macroevolution, these models can be used to estimate, respectively, the past number of infected individuals (prevalence) or the past number of species (paleodiversity) through time. Recent years have seen the development of “total-evidence” analyses, which combine molecular and morphological data from extant and past sampled individuals in a unified Bayesian inference framework. Even sampled individuals characterized only by their sampling time, that is, lacking morphological and molecular data, which we call occurrences, provide invaluable information to estimate the past number of lineages. Here, we present new methodological developments around the fossilized birth–death process enabling us to (i) incorporate occurrence data in the likelihood function; (ii) consider piecewise-constant birth, death, and sampling rates; and (iii) estimate the past number of lineages, with or without knowledge of the underlying tree. We implement our method in the RevBayes software environment, enabling its use along with a large set of models of molecular and morphological evolution, and validate the inference workflow using simulations under a wide range of conditions. We finally illustrate our new implementation using two empirical data sets stemming from the fields of epidemiology and macroevolution. In epidemiology, we infer the prevalence of the coronavirus disease 2019 outbreak on the Diamond Princess ship, by taking into account jointly the case count record (occurrences) along with viral sequences for a fraction of infected individuals. In macroevolution, we infer the diversity trajectory of cetaceans using molecular and morphological data from extant taxa, morphological data from fossils, as well as numerous fossil occurrences. The joint modeling of occurrences and trees holds the promise to further bridge the gap between traditional epidemiology and pathogen genomics, as well as paleontology and molecular phylogenetics. [Birth–death model; epidemiology; fossils; macroevolution; occurrences; phylogenetics; skyline.]

A Theory of City Biogeography and the Origin of Urban Species

Many of the choices humans make with regard to infrastructure, urban planning and other phenomena have impacts that will last thousands of years. This can readily be seen in modern cities in which contemporary streets run along street grids that were laid out thousands of years prior or even in which ancient viaducts still play a role. However, rarely do evolutionary biologists explicitly consider the future of life likely to be associated with the decisions we are making today. Here, we consider the evolutionary future of species in cities with a focus on the origin of lineages and species. We do so by adjusting evolutionary predictions from the theory of island biogeography so as to correspond to the unique features of cities as islands. Specifically, the species endemic to cities tend to be associated with the gray habitats in cities. Those habitats tend to be dominated by human bodies, pet bodies and stored food. It is among such species where the origin of new lineages is most likely, although most research on evolution in cities has focused on green habitats. We conclude by considering a range of scenarios for the far future and their implications for the origin of lineages and species.

Competition and geography underlie speciation and morphological evolution in Indo-Australasian monitor lizards

How biotic and abiotic factors act together to shape biological diversity is a major question in evolutionary biology. The recent availability of large datasets and development of new methodological approaches provide new tools to evaluate the predicted effects of ecological interactions and geography on lineage diversification and phenotypic evolution. Here, we use a near complete phylogenomic-scale phylogeny and a comprehensive morphological dataset comprising more than a thousand specimens to assess the role of biotic and abiotic processes in the diversification of monitor lizards (Varanidae). This charismatic group of lizards shows striking variation in species richness among its clades and multiple instances of endemic radiation in Indo-Australasia (i.e., the Indo-Australian Archipelago and Australia), one of Earth's most biogeographically complex regions. We found heterogeneity in diversification dynamics across the family. Idiosyncratic biotic and geographic conditions appear to have driven diversification and morphological evolution in three endemic Indo-Australasian radiations. Furthermore, incumbency effects partially explain patterns in the biotic exchange between Australia and New Guinea. Our results offer insight into the dynamic history of Indo-Australasia, the evolutionary significance of competition, and the long-term consequences of incumbency effects.

Not that young: combining plastid phylogenomic, plate tectonic and fossil evidence indicates a Palaeogene diversification of Cycadaceae

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Previous molecular dating studies revealed historical mass extinctions and recent radiations of extant cycads, but debates still exist between palaeobotanists and evolutionary biologists regarding the origin and evolution of Cycadaceae.

METHODS

Using whole plastomic data, we revisited the phylogeny of this family and found the Palawan endemic Cycas clade was strongly related to all lineages from Southeast Eurasia, coinciding with a plate drift event occurring in the Early Oligocene. By integrating fossil and biogeographical calibrations as well as molecular data from protein-coding genes, we established different calibration schemes and tested competing evolutionary timelines of Cycadaceae.

KEY RESULTS

We found recent dispersal cannot explain the distribution of Palawan Cycas, yet the scenario including the tectonic calibration yielded a mean crown age of extant Cycadaceae of ~69-43 million years ago by different tree priors, consistent with multiple Palaeogene fossils assigned to this family. Biogeographical analyses incorporating fossil distributions revealed East Asia as the ancestral area of Cycadaceae.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings challenge the previously proposed Middle-Late Miocene diversification of cycads and an Indochina origin for Cycadaceae and highlight the importance of combining phylogenetic clades, tectonic events and fossils for rebuilding the evolutionary history of lineages that have undergone massive extinctions.

No link between population isolation and speciation rate in squamate reptiles

Rates of species formation vary widely across the tree of life and contribute to massive disparities in species richness among clades. This variation can emerge from differences in metapopulation-level processes that affect the rates at which lineages diverge, persist, and evolve reproductive barriers and ecological differentiation. For example, populations that evolve reproductive barriers quickly should form new species at faster rates than populations that acquire reproductive barriers more slowly. This expectation implicitly links microevolutionary processes (the evolution of populations) and macroevolutionary patterns (the profound disparity in speciation rate across taxa). Here, leveraging extensive field sampling from the Neotropical Cerrado biome in a biogeographically controlled natural experiment, we test the role of an important microevolutionary process-the propensity for population isolation-as a control on speciation rate in lizards and snakes. By quantifying population genomic structure across a set of codistributed taxa with extensive and phylogenetically independent variation in speciation rate, we show that broad-scale patterns of species formation are decoupled from demographic and genetic processes that promote the formation of population isolates. Population isolation is likely a critical stage of speciation for many taxa, but our results suggest that interspecific variability in the propensity for isolation has little influence on speciation rates. These results suggest that other stages of speciation-including the rate at which reproductive barriers evolve and the extent to which newly formed populations persist-are likely to play a larger role than population isolation in controlling speciation rate variation in squamates.

The multicausal twilight of South American native mammalian predators (Metatheria, Sparassodonta)

Sparassodonts were the apex mammalian predators of South America throughout most of the Cenozoic, diversifying into a wide array of niches including fox-like and even saber-toothed forms. Their extinction is still controversial, with different authors suggesting competition with other predators (placental carnivorans, terror birds, and carnivorous opossums), extinction of prey, and climate change as causal explanations. Here, we analyse these hypotheses using a novel approach implicating Bayesian analyses. We find that speciation and extinction rates of sparassodonts can be correlated with (i) intrinsic biotic factors such as changes in body mass and diversity of sparassodonts, (ii) extrinsic biotic factors such as potential prey diversity, and iii) extrinsic abiotic factors like the atmospheric CO₂, sea level, temperature, and uplift of the Andes. Thus, sparassodonts are a good example of a multilevel mixed model of evolution, where various factors drove the evolutionary history of this clade in a pluralistic way. There is no evidence for competition between Sparassodonta and others predators, and the effect of competition in the face of extinctions of fossil species should be tested and not assumed. Furthermore, we propose a novel approach for evaluating the fossil record when performing macroevolutionary analyses.

Phylogenetic relations and range history of jerboas of the Allactaginae subfamily (Dipodidae, Rodentia)

Five-toed jerboas of the subfamily Allactaginae comprise several complex taxa occurring over a wide distribution range covering a large part of the Eurasian arid belt. In this study, we employed current methods of molecular phylogenetics based on 15 nuclear genes and the mitochondrial gene cytb to revise relations and systematics within Allactaginae. We also applied species distribution modelling projected on paleo-environmental data to reconstruct the geographic patterns of speciation in Allactaginae. We elucidated the intergeneric relationships within this subfamily and clarified interspecies relations within the genus Scarturus. Moreover, our results demonstrate the species status of S. caprimulga; outline the currently understudied diversity within Orientallactaga, Allactaga, and Pygeretmus; and improve the divergence estimates of these taxa. Based on our results from modelling of geographic range fragmentation in allactagines, we suggest the dating and location of speciation events and present hypotheses regarding general habitat niche conservatism in small mammals.

Evolutionary legacies in contemporary tetrapod imperilment

The Tree of Life will be irrevocably reshaped as anthropogenic extinctions continue to unfold. Theory suggests that lineage evolutionary dynamics, such as age since origination, historical extinction filters and speciation rates, have influenced ancient extinction patterns - but whether these factors also contribute to modern extinction risk is largely unknown. We examine evolutionary legacies in contemporary extinction risk for over 4000 genera, representing ~30,000 species, from the major tetrapod groups: amphibians, birds, turtles and crocodiles, squamate reptiles and mammals. We find consistent support for the hypothesis that extinction risk is elevated in lineages with higher recent speciation rates. We subsequently test, and find modest support for, a primary mechanism driving this pattern: that rapidly diversifying clades predominantly comprise range-restricted, and extinction-prone, species. These evolutionary patterns in current imperilment may have important consequences for how we manage the erosion of biological diversity across the Tree of Life.

Molecules and fossils tell distinct yet complementary stories of mammal diversification

Reconstructing the tempo at which biodiversity arose is a fundamental goal of evolutionary biologists, yet the relative merits of evolutionary-rate estimates are debated based on whether they are derived from the fossil record or time-calibrated phylogenies (timetrees) of living species. Extinct lineages unsampled in timetrees are known to "pull" speciation rates downward, but the temporal scale at which this bias matters is unclear. To investigate this problem, we compare mammalian diversification-rate signatures in a credible set of molecular timetrees (n = 5,911 species, ∼70% from DNA) to those in fossil genus durations (n = 5,320). We use fossil extinction rates to correct or "push" the timetree-based (pulled) speciation-rate estimates, finding a surge of speciation during the Paleocene (∼66-56 million years ago, Ma) between the Cretaceous-Paleogene (K-Pg) boundary and the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). However, about two-thirds of the K-Pg-to-PETM originating taxa did not leave modern descendants, indicating that this rate signature is likely undetectable from extant lineages alone. For groups without substantial fossil records, thankfully all is not lost. Pushed and pulled speciation rates converge starting ∼10 Ma and are equal at the present day when recent evolutionary processes can be estimated without bias using species-specific "tip" rates of speciation. Clade-wide moments of tip rates also enable enriched inference, as the skewness of tip rates is shown to approximate a clade's extent of past diversification-rate shifts. Molecular timetrees need fossil-correction to address deep-time questions, but they are sufficient for shallower time questions where extinctions are fewer.

Biodiversity across space and time in the fossil record

The fossil record is the primary source of information on how biodiversity has varied in deep time, providing unique insight on the long-term dynamics of diversification and their drivers. However, interpretations of fossil record diversity patterns have been much debated, with a traditional focus on global diversity through time. Problems arise because the fossil record is spatially and temporally patchy, so 'global' diversity estimates actually represent the summed diversity across a set of geographically and environmentally distinct regions that vary substantially in number and identity through time. Furthermore, a focus on global diversity lumps the signal of ecological drivers at local and regional scales with the signal of global-scale processes, including variation in the distribution of environments and in provincialism (the extent of subdivision into distinct biogeographic regions). These signals cannot be untangled by studying global diversity measures alone. These conceptual and empirical concerns necessitate a shift away from the study of 'biodiversity through time' and towards the study of 'biodiversity across time and space'. Spatially explicit investigations, including analyses of local- and regional-scale datasets, are central to achieving this and allow analysis of geographic scale, location and the environmental parameters directly experienced by organisms. So far, research in this area has revealed the stability of species richness variation among environments through time, and the potential climatic and Earth-system drivers of changing biodiversity. Ultimately, this research program promises to address key questions regarding the assembly of biodiversity, and the contributions of local-, regional- and global-scale processes to the diversification of life on Earth.

Incongruent phylogenies and their implications for the study of diversification, taxonomy, and genome size evolution of Rhododendron

PREMISE

Classification of taxa depends on the quality of inferred phylogenies. Rhododendron, a highly species-rich genus (>1156 species) of woody plants, has a highly debated infrageneric classification, due to its huge diversity, homoplasy in key characters, and incongruence among data sets. We provide a broad coverage of representative species to resolve Rhododendron infrageneric phylogeny and highlight the areas of incongruence. We further investigate the effect of polyploidy and genome size evolution on diversification of Rhododendron.

METHODS

We generated two plastid and two nuclear loci for 260 Rhododendron species. We analyzed the loci separately as well as concatenated, utilizing both likelihood and Bayesian methods. We tested incongruence both among the data sets and with previous studies. We estimated genome sizes for 125 species through flow cytometry.

RESULTS

Our results suggest stronger support for larger subgenera; however, the smaller subgenera pose several problems; for example, R. tomentosum (former genus Ledum) occupies incongruent positions based on different DNA regions. The main shift to higher diversification in the genus occurs in the Himalayan/Southeast Asian clade of R. subg. Hymenanthes. We found that polyploidy occurs in almost all subgenera but most frequently within R. subg. Rhododendron sections Rhododendron and Schistanthe.

CONCLUSIONS

We endorse the recognition of five major clades at the subgeneric level, but a number of species cannot be confidently assigned to these clades due to incongruency. With regard to genome size evolution, results support previous reports that genome sizes of tropical plants are lower than those of colder and temperate regions and that genome downsizing promotes diversification.

Pioneering polyploids: the impact of whole-genome duplication on biome shifting in New Zealand Coprosma (Rubiaceae) and Veronica (Plantaginaceae)

The role of whole-genome duplication (WGD) in facilitating shifts into novel biomes remains unknown. Focusing on two diverse woody plant groups in New Zealand, Coprosma (Rubiaceae) and Veronica (Plantaginaceae), we investigate how biome occupancy varies with ploidy level, and test the hypothesis that WGD increases the rate of biome shifting. Ploidy levels and biome occupancy (forest, open and alpine) were determined for indigenous species in both clades. The distribution of low-ploidy (Coprosma: 2x, Veronica: 6x) versus high-ploidy (Coprosma: 4-10x, Veronica: 12-18x) species across biomes was tested statistically. Estimation of the phylogenetic history of biome occupancy and WGD was performed using time-calibrated phylogenies and the R package BioGeoBEARS. Trait-dependent dispersal models were implemented to determine support for an increased rate of biome shifting among high-ploidy lineages. We find support for a greater than random portion of high-ploidy species occupying multiple biomes. We also find strong support for high-ploidy lineages showing a three- to eightfold increase in the rate of biome shifts. These results suggest that WGD promotes ecological expansion into new biomes.

A Framework for Investigating Rules of Life Across Disciplines

Clearly and usefully defining the Rules of Life has long been an attractive yet elusive prospect for biologists. Life persists because requirements for existence and successful transmission of hereditary information are met. These requirements are met through mechanisms adopted by organisms, which produce solutions to environmentally imposed constraints on life. Yet, constraints and their suites of potential solutions are typically context-specific, operating at specific levels of organization, or holons, and having cascading effects across multiple levels, or the holarchy. We explore the idea that the interaction of constraints, mechanisms, and requirements within and across levels of organization may produce rules of life that can be productively defined. Although we stop short of listing specific rules, we provide a conceptual framework within which progress toward identifying rules might be made.

Why extinction estimates from extant phylogenies are so often zero

Time-calibrated phylogenies of extant species ("extant timetrees") are widely used to estimate historical speciation and extinction rates by fitting stochastic birth-death models.¹ These approaches have long been controversial, as many phylogenetic studies report zero extinction in many taxa, contradicting the high extinction rates seen in the fossil record and the fact that the majority of species ever to have existed are now extinct.^2-9 To date, the causes of this discrepancy remain unresolved. Here, we provide a novel and simple explanation for these "zero-inflated" extinction estimates, based on the recent discovery that there exist many alternative "congruent" diversification scenarios that cannot be distinguished based solely on extant timetrees.¹⁰ Due to such congruencies, estimation methods tend to converge to some scenario congruent to (i.e., statistically indistinguishable from) the true diversification scenario, but not necessarily to the true diversification scenario itself. This congruent scenario may exhibit negative extinction rates, a biologically meaningless but mathematically feasible situation, in which case estimators will tend to stick to the boundary of zero extinction. Based on this explanation, we make multiple testable predictions, which we confirm using analyses of simulated trees and 121 empirical trees. In contrast to other proposed mechanisms for erroneous extinction rate estimates,^5,11-14 our proposed mechanism specifically explains the zero inflation of previous extinction rate estimates in the absence of detectable model violations, even for large trees. Not only do our results likely resolve a long-standing mystery in phylogenetics, they demonstrate that model congruencies can have severe consequences in practice.