Shifting from a fertilization-dominated to a warming-dominated period

A loss of stomata exposes a critical vulnerability to variable atmospheric humidity in ferns

Stomata confer both benefits and costs to plants, but assessing the magnitude of these effects is challenging. Some ferns have entirely lost stomata on their leaves, providing an opportunity to understand functional limitations associated with the inability to regulate transpiration. Here, we show that the loss of stomata and a massive reduction in xylem tissue investment in a filmy fern (Hymenophyllum flabellatum Labill.) leaves its vascular system exposed to catastrophic failure during relatively small reductions in atmospheric humidity. Hydraulic limitation, together with a sensitivity to fast desiccation, sets a clear lethal vapor pressure deficit threshold. This threshold enables a quantitative prediction of range contraction in H. flabellatum using a simple physical model. According to this threshold and climate projections, H. flabellatum may disappear from most of its native habitat in mainland Australia by 2050.

Satellite-based evidence of recent decline in global forest recovery rate from tree mortality events

Climate-driven forest mortality events have been extensively observed in recent decades, prompting the question of how quickly these affected forests can recover their functionality following such events. Here we assessed forest recovery in vegetation greenness (normalized difference vegetation index) and canopy water content (normalized difference infrared index) for 1,699 well-documented forest mortality events across 1,600 sites worldwide. By analysing 158,427 Landsat surface reflectance images sampled from these sites, we provided a global assessment on the time required for impacted forests to return to their pre-mortality state (recovery time). Our findings reveal a consistent decline in global forest recovery rate over the past decades indicated by both greenness and canopy water content. This decline is particularly noticeable since the 1990s. Further analysis on underlying mechanisms suggests that this reduction in global forest recovery rates is primarily associated with rising temperatures and increased water scarcity, while the escalation in the severity of forest mortality contributes only partially to this reduction. Moreover, our global-scale analysis reveals that the recovery of forest canopy water content lags significantly behind that of vegetation greenness, implying that vegetation indices based solely on greenness can overestimate post-mortality recovery rates globally. Our findings underscore the increasing vulnerability of forest ecosystems to future warming and water insufficiency, accentuating the need to prioritize forest conservation and restoration as an integral component of efforts to mitigate climate change impacts.

Climate change and food security nexus in Ghana: The role of renewable energy

Climate change is aggravating hunger, which is miserable in Sub-Saharan African nations like Ghana. Yet evidence of the effect of climatic variables on hunger, particularly multidimensional food security, is less illuminated in Ghana. Moreover, the decoupling effect of renewable energy on emissions and food security is rare in the Ghanaian context. Therefore, we fill this gap using time series data from 1990 to 2022. The autoregressive distributed lag model was used to analyse the data, while the dynamic ordinary least squares and fully modified ordinary least squares were employed for robustness. Additionally, the seemingly unrelated regression was used to evaluate the effect of climate change on tomatoes, rice, cocoa, cashews, maize, cassava, and yam output. We discovered a long-run co-integration between climatic factors and food security. Moreover, rising temperatures worsen food security in the short run but eventually improve in the long run. Again, temperature improves the production of the studied crops. In the short term, precipitation disturbs food security but suddenly improves in the future. Similarly, rainfall increases the production of the studied crops. Moreover, CO2 stifles long-term food security and reduces rice production. However, renewable energy counteract the deleterious consequence of CO2 on food security in the future. Theoretically, the effect of climate change on food security follows the assumption of the Environmental Kuznets Curve to some extent in Ghana. Therefore, adopting irrigation, greenhouses, agricultural insurance, and improved crop varieties will help farmers manage the wrath of climate change. Also, policies like carbon credits, tax incentives for renewable energy, investment funds, and solar panel subsidies can further promote sustainability and climate change mitigation.

Temperature and leaf form drive contrasting sensitivity to nitrogen deposition across European forests

Raised emissions of biologically reactive nitrogen (N) have intensified N deposition, enhancing tree productivity globally. Nonetheless, the drivers of forest sensitivity to N deposition remain unknown. We used stem growth data from 62,000 trees across Europe combined with N deposition data to track the effects of air temperature and precipitation on tree growth's sensitivity to N deposition and how it varied depending on leaf form over the past 30 years. Overall, N deposition enhanced conifer growth (until 30 kg N ha-1 yr-1) while decreasing growth for broadleaved angiosperms. Lower temperatures led to higher growth sensitivity to N deposition in conifers potentially exacerbated by N limitation. In contrast, higher temperatures stimulated growth sensitivity to N deposition for broadleaves. Higher precipitation equally increased N deposition sensitivity in all leaf forms. We conclude that air temperature and leaf form are decisive in disentangling the effect of N deposition in European forests, which provides crucial information to better predict the contribution of N deposition to land carbon sink enhancement.

Gains in soil carbon storage under anthropogenic nitrogen deposition are rapidly lost following its cessation

In the Northern Hemisphere, anthropogenic nitrogen (N) deposition contributed to the enhancement of the global terrestrial carbon (C) sink, partially offsetting CO2 emissions. Across several long-term field experiments, this ecosystem-level response was determined to be driven, in part, by the suppression of microbial activity associated with the breakdown of soil organic matter. However, since the implementation of emission abatement policies in the 1970s, atmospheric N deposition has declined globally, and the consequences of this decline are unknown. Here, we assessed the response of soil C storage and associated microbial activities, in a long-term field study that experimentally increased N deposition for 24 years. We measured soil C and N, microbial activity, and compared effect sizes of soil C in response to, and in recovery from, the N deposition treatment across the history of our experiment (1994-2022). Our results demonstrate that the accumulated C in the organic horizon has been lost and exhibits additional deficits 5 years post-termination of the N deposition treatment. These findings, in part, arise from mechanistic changes in microbial activity. Soil C in the mineral soil was less responsive thus far in recovery. If these organic horizon C dynamics are similar in other temperate forests, the Northern Hemisphere C sink will be reduced and climate warming will be enhanced.

Rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations increase gaps of rice yields between low- and middle-to-high-income countries

The rising carbon dioxide concentrations are expected to increase future rice yields. However, variations in the CO2 fertilization effect (CFE) between rice subspecies and the influence of concurrent global warming introduce uncertainty in future global rice yield projections. Here we conducted a meta-analysis of rising carbon dioxide field experiments and employed crop modelling to assess future global rice yields for the top 14 rice producing countries. We found a robust parabolic relationship between rice CFE and temperature, with significant variations between rice subspecies. Our projections indicate that global rice production in the 2050s is expected to increase by 50.32 million tonnes (7.6%) due to CFE compared with historical production. Because low-income countries will experience higher temperatures, the gaps (difference of Δyield) between middle-to-high-income and low-income countries are projected to widen from the 2030s to the 2090s under elevated carbon dioxide. These findings underscore the critical role of CFE and emphasize the necessity to increase investments in research and technology for rice producing systems in low-income countries.

Mutual inhibition effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on global forest GPP

The impact of CO2 fertilization on enhancing global forest gross primary productivity (GPP) is acknowledged, but its interaction with climate factors-air temperature (Tem), precipitation (Pre), vapor pressure deficit (VPD), and radiation (Rad)-remains unclear. In this study, global forest GPP trends from 1982 to 2018 were examined using BEPS, NIRv, FLUXCOM, and revised EC-LUE datasets, with interannual trends of 5.618 (p < 0.01), 5.831 (p < 0.01), 0.227, and 6.566 g C m-2 yr-1 (p < 0.01), respectively. Elevated CO2 was identified as the primary driver of GPP trends, with the dominant area ranging from 51.11% to 90.37% across different GPP datasets. In the NIRv and revised EC-LUE datasets, the positive impact of CO2 on GPP showed a decrease of 0.222 g C m-2 yr-1, while the negative impact of Rad increased by 0.007 g C m-2 yr-1. An inhibitory relationship was found between the actual effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on GPP in most forest types. At lower latitudes, Tem primarily constrained CO2 fertilization, while at higher latitudes, VPD emerged as the key limiting factor. This was mainly attributed to the potential trade-off or competition between elevated CO2 and climate change in influencing GPP, with strategic resource allocation varying across different forest ecosystems. This study highlights the significant inhibitory effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on global forest GPP, providing insights into the dynamic responses of forest ecosystems to changing environments.

Reassessment of the risks of climate change for terrestrial ecosystems

Forecasting the risks of climate change for species and ecosystems is necessary for developing targeted conservation strategies. Previous risk assessments mapped the exposure of the global land surface to changes in climate. However, this procedure is unlikely to robustly identify priority areas for conservation actions because nonlinear physiological responses and colimitation processes ensure that ecological changes will not map perfectly to the forecast climatic changes. Here, we combine ecophysiological growth models of 135,153 vascular plant species and plant growth-form information to transform ambient and future climatologies into phytoclimates, which describe the ability of climates to support the plant growth forms that characterize terrestrial ecosystems. We forecast that 33% to 68% of the global land surface will experience a significant change in phytoclimate by 2070 under representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5, respectively. Phytoclimates without present-day analogue are forecast to emerge on 0.3-2.2% of the land surface and 0.1-1.3% of currently realized phytoclimates are forecast to disappear. Notably, the geographic pattern of change, disappearance and novelty of phytoclimates differs markedly from the pattern of analogous trends in climates detected by previous studies, thereby defining new priorities for conservation actions and highlighting the limits of using untransformed climate change exposure indices in ecological risk assessments. Our findings suggest that a profound transformation of the biosphere is underway and emphasize the need for a timely adaptation of biodiversity management practices.

Climate-induced tree-mortality pulses are obscured by broad-scale and long-term greening

Vegetation greening has been suggested to be a dominant trend over recent decades, but severe pulses of tree mortality in forests after droughts and heatwaves have also been extensively reported. These observations raise the question of to what extent the observed severe pulses of tree mortality induced by climate could affect overall vegetation greenness across spatial grains and temporal extents. To address this issue, here we analyse three satellite-based datasets of detrended growing-season normalized difference vegetation index (NDVIGS) with spatial resolutions ranging from 30 m to 8 km for 1,303 field-documented sites experiencing severe drought- or heat-induced tree-mortality events around the globe. We find that severe tree-mortality events have distinctive but localized imprints on vegetation greenness over annual timescales, which are obscured by broad-scale and long-term greening. Specifically, although anomalies in NDVIGS (ΔNDVI) are negative during tree-mortality years, this reduction diminishes at coarser spatial resolutions (that is, 250 m and 8 km). Notably, tree-mortality-induced reductions in NDVIGS (|ΔNDVI|) at 30-m resolution are negatively related to native plant species richness and forest height, whereas topographic heterogeneity is the major factor affecting ΔNDVI differences across various spatial grain sizes. Over time periods of a decade or longer, greening consistently dominates all spatial resolutions. The findings underscore the fundamental importance of spatio-temporal scales for cohesively understanding the effects of climate change on forest productivity and tree mortality under both gradual and abrupt changes.

Characteristics and drivers of vegetation productivity sensitivity to increasing CO2 at Northern Middle and High Latitudes

Understanding and accurately predicting how the sensitivity of terrestrial vegetation productivity to rising atmospheric CO2 concentration (β) is crucial for assessing carbon sink dynamics. However, the temporal characteristics and driving mechanisms of β remain uncertain. Here, observational and CMIP6 modeling evidence suggest a decreasing trend in β at the Northern Middle and High Latitudes during the historical period of 1982-2015 (-0.082 ± 0.005% 100 ppm-1 year-1). This decreasing trend is projected to persist until the end of the 21st century (-0.082 ± 0.005% 100 ppm-1 year-1 under SSP370 and -0.166 ± 0.006% 100 ppm-1 year-1 under SSP585). The declining β indicates a weakening capacity of vegetation to mitigate warming climates, posing challenges for achieving the temperature goals of the Paris Agreement. The rise in vapor pressure deficit (VPD), that triggers stomata closure and weakens photosynthesis, is considered as the dominated factor contributing to the historical and future decline in β, accounting for 62.3%-75.2% of the effect. Nutrient availability and water availability contribute 15.7%-21.4% and 8.5%-16.3%, respectively. These findings underscore the significant role of VPD in shaping terrestrial carbon sink dynamics, an aspect that is currently insufficiently considered in many climate and ecological models.

Projected decline in the strength of vegetation carbon sequestration under climate change in India

Tropical vegetation plays a critical role in terrestrial carbon budget and supply many ecological functions such as carbon sequestration. In recent decades, India has witnessed an increase in net primary productivity (NPP), an important measure of carbon sequestration. However, uncertainties persist regarding the sustainability of these land carbon sinks in the face of climate change. The enhanced NPP is driven by the strong CO2 fertilization effect (CFE), but the temporal patterns of this feedback remain unclear. Using the carbon flux data from the Earth System Models (ESMs), an increasing trend in NPP was observed, with projections of NPP to 2.00 ± 0.12 PgCyr-1 (25 % increase) during 2021-2049, 2.36 ± 0.12 PgCyr-1 (18 % increase) during 2050-2079, and 2.67 ± 0.07 PgCyr-1 (13 % increase) during 2080-2099 in Indian vegetation under SSP585 scenario. This suggests a significant decline in the NPP growth rate. To understand the feedback mechanisms driving NPP, the relative effects of CFE and warming were analyzed. Comparing simulations from the biogeochemically coupled model (BGC) with the fully coupled model, the BGC model projected a 74.7 % increase in NPP, significantly higher than the 55.9 % increase projected by the fully coupled model by the end of the century. This indicates that the consistent increase in NPP was associated with CO2 fertilization. More importantly, results reveal that the decrease in the NPP growth rate was due to the declining contribution of CFE at a rate of -0.62 % per 100 ppm CO2 increase. This decline could be attributed to factors such as nutrient limitations and high temperatures. Additionally, significant shifts in the strength of carbon sinks in offsetting the CO2 emissions were identified, decreasing at a rate of -1.15 % per decade. This decline in the strength of vegetation carbon sequestration may increase the societal dependence on mitigation measures to address climate change.

Transition from positive to negative indirect CO2 effects on the vegetation carbon uptake

Although elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) has substantial indirect effects on vegetation carbon uptake via associated climate change, their dynamics remain unclear. Here we investigate how the impacts of eCO2-driven climate change on growing-season gross primary production have changed globally during 1982-2014, using satellite observations and Earth system models, and evaluate their evolution until the year 2100. We show that the initial positive effect of eCO2-induced climate change on vegetation carbon uptake has declined recently, shifting to negative in the early 21st century. Such emerging pattern appears prominent in high latitudes and occurs in combination with a decrease of direct CO2 physiological effect, ultimately resulting in a sharp reduction of the current growth benefits induced by climate warming and CO2 fertilization. Such weakening of the indirect CO2 effect can be partially attributed to the widespread land drying, and it is expected to be further exacerbated under global warming.

Diminishing carryover benefits of earlier spring vegetation growth

Spring vegetation growth can benefit summer growth by increasing foliage area and carbon sequestration potential, or impair it by consuming additional resources needed for sustaining subsequent growth. However, the prevalent driving mechanism and its temporal changes remain unknown. Using satellite observations and long-term atmospheric CO2 records, here we show a weakening trend of the linkage between spring and summer vegetation growth/productivity in the Northern Hemisphere during 1982-2021. This weakening is driven by warmer and more extreme hot weather that becomes unfavourable for peak-season growth, shifting peak plant functioning away from earlier periods. This is further exacerbated by seasonally growing ecosystem water stress due to reduced water supply and enhanced water demand. Our finding suggests that beneficial carryover effects of spring growth on summer growth are diminishing or even reversing, acting as an early warning sign of the ongoing shift of climatic effects from stimulating to suppressing plant photosynthesis during the early to peak seasons.

Climate change determines the sign of productivity trends in US forests

Forests are integral to the global land carbon sink, which has sequestered ~30% of anthropogenic carbon emissions over recent decades. The persistence of this sink depends on the balance of positive drivers that increase ecosystem carbon storage-e.g., CO2 fertilization-and negative drivers that decrease it-e.g., intensifying disturbances. The net response of forest productivity to these drivers is uncertain due to the challenge of separating their effects from background disturbance-regrowth dynamics. We fit non-linear models to US forest inventory data (113,806 plot remeasurements in non-plantation forests from ~1999 to 2020) to quantify productivity trends while accounting for stand age, tree mortality, and harvest. Productivity trends were generally positive in the eastern United States, where climate change has been mild, and negative in the western United States, where climate change has been more severe. Productivity declines in the western United States cannot be explained by increased mortality or harvest; these declines likely reflect adverse climate-change impacts on tree growth. In the eastern United States, where data were available to partition biomass change into age-dependent and age-independent components, forest maturation and increasing productivity (likely due, at least in part, to CO2 fertilization) contributed roughly equally to biomass carbon sinks. Thus, adverse effects of climate change appear to overwhelm any positive drivers in the water-limited forests of the western United States, whereas forest maturation and positive responses to age-independent drivers contribute to eastern US carbon sinks. The future land carbon balance of forests will likely depend on the geographic extent of drought and heat stress.

Nitrogen addition delays the emergence of an aridity-induced threshold for plant biomass

Crossing certain aridity thresholds in global drylands can lead to abrupt decays of ecosystem attributes such as plant productivity, potentially causing land degradation and desertification. It is largely unknown, however, whether these thresholds can be altered by other key global change drivers known to affect the water-use efficiency and productivity of vegetation, such as elevated CO2 and nitrogen (N). Using >5000 empirical measurements of plant biomass, we showed that crossing an aridity (1-precipitation/potential evapotranspiration) threshold of ∼0.50, which marks the transition from dry sub-humid to semi-arid climates, led to abrupt declines in aboveground biomass (AGB) and progressive increases in root:shoot ratios, thus importantly affecting carbon stocks and their distribution. N addition significantly increased AGB and delayed the emergence of its aridity threshold from 0.49 to 0.55 (P < 0.05). By coupling remote sensing estimates of leaf area index with simulations from multiple models, we found that CO2 enrichment did not alter the observed aridity threshold. By 2100, and under the RCP 8.5 scenario, we forecast a 0.3% net increase in the global land area exceeding the aridity threshold detected under a scenario that includes N deposition, in comparison to a 2.9% net increase if the N effect is not considered. Our study thus indicates that N addition could mitigate to a great extent the negative impact of increasing aridity on plant biomass in drylands. These findings are critical for improving forecasts of abrupt vegetation changes in response to ongoing global environmental change.

Vegetation browning: global drivers, impacts, and feedbacks

As global climate conditions continue to change, disturbance regimes and environmental drivers will continue to shift, impacting global vegetation dynamics. Following a period of vegetation greening, there has been a progressive increase in remotely sensed vegetation browning globally. Given the many societal benefits that forests provide, it is critical that we understand vegetation dynamic alterations. Here, we review associative drivers, impacts, and feedbacks, revealing the complexity of browning. Concomitant increases in browning include the weakening of ecosystem services and functions and alterations to vegetation structure and species composition, as well as the development of potential positive climate change feedbacks. Also discussed are the current challenges in browning detection and understanding associated impacts and feedbacks. Finally, we outline recommended strategies.

Global water use efficiency saturation due to increased vapor pressure deficit

The ratio of carbon assimilation to water evapotranspiration (ET) of an ecosystem, referred to as ecosystem water use efficiency (WUEeco), is widely expected to increase because of the rising atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration (Ca). However, little is known about the interactive effects of rising Ca and climate change on WUEeco. On the basis of upscaled estimates from machine learning methods and global FLUXNET observations, we show that global WUEeco has not risen since 2001 because of the asymmetric effects of an increased vapor pressure deficit (VPD), which depressed photosynthesis and enhanced ET. An undiminished ET trend indicates that rising temperature and VPD may play a more important role in regulating ET than declining stomatal conductance. Projected increases in VPD are predicted to affect the future coupling of the terrestrial carbon and water cycles.

CO2 fertilization contributed more than half of the observed forest biomass increase in northern extra-tropical land

The existence of a large-biomass carbon (C) sink in Northern Hemisphere extra-tropical ecosystems (NHee) is well-established, but the relative contribution of different potential drivers remains highly uncertain. Here we isolated the historical role of carbon dioxide (CO2 ) fertilization by integrating estimates from 24 CO2 -enrichment experiments, an ensemble of 10 dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and two observation-based biomass datasets. Application of the emergent constraint technique revealed that DGVMs underestimated the historical response of plant biomass to increasing [CO2 ] in forests (β Forest Mod ) but overestimated the response in grasslands (β Grass Mod ) since the 1850s. Combining the constrainedβ Forest Mod (0.86 ± 0.28 kg C m-2  [100 ppm]-1 ) with observed forest biomass changes derived from inventories and satellites, we identified that CO2 fertilization alone accounted for more than half (54 ± 18% and 64 ± 21%, respectively) of the increase in biomass C storage since the 1990s. Our results indicate that CO2 fertilization dominated the forest biomass C sink over the past decades, and provide an essential step toward better understanding the key role of forests in land-based policies for mitigating climate change.

Microbial communities in terrestrial surface soils are not widely limited by carbon

Microbial communities in soils are generally considered to be limited by carbon (C), which could be a crucial control for basic soil functions and responses of microbial heterotrophic metabolism to climate change. However, global soil microbial C limitation (MCL) has rarely been estimated and is poorly understood. Here, we predicted MCL, defined as limited availability of substrate C relative to nitrogen and/or phosphorus to meet microbial metabolic requirements, based on the thresholds of extracellular enzyme activity across 847 sites (2476 observations) representing global natural ecosystems. Results showed that only about 22% of global sites in terrestrial surface soils show relative C limitation in microbial community. This finding challenges the conventional hypothesis of ubiquitous C limitation for soil microbial metabolism. The limited geographic extent of C limitation in our study was mainly attributed to plant litter, rather than soil organic matter that has been processed by microbes, serving as the dominant C source for microbial acquisition. We also identified a significant latitudinal pattern of predicted MCL with larger C limitation at mid- to high latitudes, whereas this limitation was generally absent in the tropics. Moreover, MCL significantly constrained the rates of soil heterotrophic respiration, suggesting a potentially larger relative increase in respiration at mid- to high latitudes than low latitudes, if climate change increases primary productivity that alleviates MCL at higher latitudes. Our study provides the first global estimates of MCL, advancing our understanding of terrestrial C cycling and microbial metabolic feedback under global climate change.

Diagnosing destabilization risk in global land carbon sinks

Global net land carbon uptake or net biome production (NBP) has increased during recent decades1. Whether its temporal variability and autocorrelation have changed during this period, however, remains elusive, even though an increase in both could indicate an increased potential for a destabilized carbon sink2,3. Here, we investigate the trends and controls of net terrestrial carbon uptake and its temporal variability and autocorrelation from 1981 to 2018 using two atmospheric-inversion models, the amplitude of the seasonal cycle of atmospheric CO2 concentration derived from nine monitoring stations distributed across the Pacific Ocean and dynamic global vegetation models. We find that annual NBP and its interdecadal variability increased globally whereas temporal autocorrelation decreased. We observe a separation of regions characterized by increasingly variable NBP, associated with warm regions and increasingly variable temperatures, lower and weaker positive trends in NBP and regions where NBP became stronger and less variable. Plant species richness presented a concave-down parabolic spatial relationship with NBP and its variability at the global scale whereas nitrogen deposition generally increased NBP. Increasing temperature and its increasing variability appear as the most important drivers of declining and increasingly variable NBP. Our results show increasing variability of NBP regionally that can be mostly attributed to climate change and that may point to destabilization of the coupled carbon-climate system.

Recent decrease of the impact of tropical temperature on the carbon cycle linked to increased precipitation

The atmospheric CO₂ growth rate (CGR) variability is largely controlled by tropical temperature fluctuations. The sensitivity of CGR to tropical temperature [Formula: see text] has strongly increased since 1960, but here we show that this trend has ceased. Here, we use the long-term CO₂ records from Mauna Loa and the South Pole to compute CGR, and show that [Formula: see text] increased by 200% from 1960-1979 to 1979-2000 but then decreased by 117% from 1980-2001 to 2001-2020, almost returning back to the level of the 1960s. Variations in [Formula: see text] are significantly correlated with changes in precipitation at a bi-decadal scale. These findings are further corroborated by results from a dynamic vegetation model, collectively suggesting that increases in precipitation control the decreased [Formula: see text] during recent decades. Our results indicate that wetter conditions have led to a decoupling of the impact of the tropical temperature variation on the carbon cycle.

Processes and mechanisms of vegetation ecosystem responding to climate and ecological restoration in China

Vegetation is an essential component of the earth's surface system and its dynamics is a clear indicator of global climate change. However, the vegetation trends of most studies were based on time-unvarying methods, cannot accurately detect the long-term nonlinear characteristics of vegetation changes. Here, the ensemble empirical mode decomposition and the Breaks for Additive Seasonal and Trend algorithm were applied to reconstruct the the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) data and diagnose spatiotemporal evolution and abrupt changes of long-term vegetation trends in China during 1982-2018. Residual analysis was used to separate the influence of climate and human activities on NDVI variations, and the effect of specific human drivers on vegetation growth was obtained. The results suggest that based on the time-varying analysis, high vegetation browning was masked by overall vegetation greening. Vegetation growth in China experienced an abrupt change in the 1990s and 2000s, accounting for 50% and 33.6% of the whole China respectively. Of the area before the breakpoint, 45.4% showed a trend of vegetation decrease, which was concentrated mainly in east China, while 43% of the area after the breakpoint also showed vegetation degradation, mainly in northwest China. Climate was an important driving force for vegetation change in China. It played a positive role in south China, but had a negative effect in northwest China. The impact of human activities on vegetation growthchanged from an initial negative influence to a positive one. In terms of human activities, an inverted-U-shaped relation was detected between CO2 emissions and vegetation growth; that is, the fertilization effect of CO2 had a certain threshold. Once that threshold was exceeded, it would hinder vegetation growth. Population density had a slight constraint on vegetation growth, and the implementation of ecological restoration projects (e.g., the Grain for Green Program) can promote vegetation growth to a certain extent.

Prevalence and drivers of abrupt vegetation shifts in global drylands

The constant provision of plant productivity is integral to supporting the liability of ecosystems and human wellbeing in global drylands. Drylands are paradigmatic examples of systems prone to experiencing abrupt changes in their functioning. Indeed, space-for-time substitution approaches suggest that abrupt changes in plant productivity are widespread, but this evidence is less clear using observational time series or experimental data at a large scale. Studying the prevalence and, most importantly, the unknown drivers of abrupt (rather than gradual) dynamical patterns in drylands may help to unveil hotspots of current and future dynamical instabilities in drylands. Using a 20-y global satellite-derived temporal assessment of dryland Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), we show that 50% of all dryland ecosystems exhibiting gains or losses of NDVI are characterized by abrupt positive/negative temporal dynamics. We further show that abrupt changes are more common among negative than positive NDVI trends and can be found in global regions suffering recent droughts, particularly around critical aridity thresholds. Positive abrupt dynamics are found most in ecosystems with low seasonal variability or high aridity. Our work unveils the high importance of climate variability on triggering abrupt shifts in vegetation and it provides missing evidence of increasing abruptness in systems intensively managed by humans, with low soil organic carbon contents, or around specific aridity thresholds. These results highlight that abrupt changes in dryland dynamics are very common, especially for productivity losses, pinpoint global hotspots of dryland vulnerability, and identify drivers that could be targeted for effective dryland management.

Tree crown damage and its effects on forest carbon cycling in a tropical forest

Crown damage can account for over 23% of canopy biomass turnover in tropical forests and is a strong predictor of tree mortality; yet, it is not typically represented in vegetation models. We incorporate crown damage into the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator (FATES), to evaluate how lags between damage and tree recovery or death alter demographic rates and patterns of carbon turnover. We represent crown damage as a reduction in a tree's crown area and leaf and branch biomass, and allow associated variation in the ratio of aboveground to belowground plant tissue. We compare simulations with crown damage to simulations with equivalent instant increases in mortality and benchmark results against data from Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama. In FATES, crown damage causes decreases in growth rates that match observations from BCI. Crown damage leads to increases in carbon starvation mortality in FATES, but only in configurations with high root respiration and decreases in carbon storage following damage. Crown damage also alters competitive dynamics, as plant functional types that can recover from crown damage outcompete those that cannot. This is a first exploration of the trade-off between the additional complexity of the novel crown damage module and improved predictive capabilities. At BCI, a tropical forest that does not experience high levels of disturbance, both the crown damage simulations and simulations with equivalent increases in mortality does a reasonable job of capturing observations. The crown damage module provides functionality for exploring dynamics in forests with more extreme disturbances such as cyclones and for capturing the synergistic effects of disturbances that overlap in space and time.

Dryland mechanisms could widely control ecosystem functioning in a drier and warmer world

Responses of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change have been explored in many regions worldwide. While continued drying and warming may alter process rates and deteriorate the state and performance of ecosystems, it could also lead to more fundamental changes in the mechanisms governing ecosystem functioning. Here we argue that climate change will induce unprecedented shifts in these mechanisms in historically wetter climatic zones, towards mechanisms currently prevalent in dry regions, which we refer to as 'dryland mechanisms'. We discuss 12 dryland mechanisms affecting multiple processes of ecosystem functioning, including vegetation development, water flow, energy budget, carbon and nutrient cycling, plant production and organic matter decomposition. We then examine mostly rare examples of the operation of these mechanisms in non-dryland regions where they have been considered irrelevant at present. Current and future climate trends could force microclimatic conditions across thresholds and lead to the emergence of dryland mechanisms and their increasing control over ecosystem functioning in many biomes on Earth.

Impact of Changing Winds on the Mauna Loa CO2 Seasonal Cycle in Relation to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation

Long-term measurements at the Mauna Loa Observatory (MLO) show that the CO₂ seasonal cycle amplitude (SCA) increased from 1959 to 2019 at an overall rate of 0.22  ±  0.034 ppm decade^-1 while also varying on interannual to decadal time scales. These SCA changes are a signature of changes in land ecological CO₂ fluxes as well as shifting winds. Simulations with the TM3 tracer transport model and CO₂ fluxes from the Jena CarboScope CO₂ Inversion suggest that shifting winds alone have contributed to a decrease in SCA of -0.10  ±  0.022 ppm decade^-1 from 1959 to 2019, partly offsetting the observed long-term SCA increase associated with enhanced ecosystem net primary production. According to these simulations and MIROC-ACTM simulations, the shorter-term variability of MLO SCA is nearly equally driven by varying ecological CO₂ fluxes (49%) and varying winds (51%). We also show that the MLO SCA is strongly correlated with the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) due to varying winds, as well as with a closely related wind index (U-PDO). Since 1980, 44% of the wind-driven SCA decrease has been tied to a secular trend in the U-PDO, which is associated with a progressive weakening of westerly winds at 700 mbar over the central Pacific from 20°N to 40°N. Similar impacts of varying winds on the SCA are seen in simulations at other low-latitude Pacific stations, illustrating the difficulty of constraining trend and variability of land CO₂ fluxes using observations from low latitudes due to the complexity of circulation changes.

Emerging signals of declining forest resilience under climate change

Forest ecosystems depend on their capacity to withstand and recover from natural and anthropogenic perturbations (that is, their resilience)¹. Experimental evidence of sudden increases in tree mortality is raising concerns about variation in forest resilience², yet little is known about how it is evolving in response to climate change. Here we integrate satellite-based vegetation indices with machine learning to show how forest resilience, quantified in terms of critical slowing down indicators^3–5, has changed during the period 2000–2020. We show that tropical, arid and temperate forests are experiencing a significant decline in resilience, probably related to increased water limitations and climate variability. By contrast, boreal forests show divergent local patterns with an average increasing trend in resilience, probably benefiting from warming and CO₂ fertilization, which may outweigh the adverse effects of climate change. These patterns emerge consistently in both managed and intact forests, corroborating the existence of common large-scale climate drivers. Reductions in resilience are statistically linked to abrupt declines in forest primary productivity, occurring in response to slow drifting towards a critical resilience threshold. Approximately 23% of intact undisturbed forests, corresponding to 3.32 Pg C of gross primary productivity, have already reached a critical threshold and are experiencing a further degradation in resilience. Together, these signals reveal a widespread decline in the capacity of forests to withstand perturbation that should be accounted for in the design of land-based mitigation and adaptation plans.

Global warming is shifting the relationships between fire weather and realized fire-induced CO2 emissions in Europe

Fire activity has significantly changed in Europe over the last decades (1980–2020s), with the emergence of summers attaining unprecedented fire prone weather conditions. Here we report a significant shift in the non-stationary relationship linking fire weather conditions and fire intensity measured in terms of CO₂ emissions released during biomass burning across a latitudinal gradient of European IPCC regions. The reported trends indicate that global warming is possibly inducing an incipient change on regional fire dynamics towards increased fire impacts in Europe, suggesting that emerging risks posed by exceptional fire-weather danger conditions may progressively exceed current wildfire suppression capabilities in the next decades and impact forest carbon sinks.

Regional and seasonal partitioning of water and temperature controls on global land carbon uptake variability

Global fluctuations in annual land carbon uptake (NEE_IAV) depend on water and temperature variability, yet debate remains about local and seasonal controls of the global dependences. Here, we quantify regional and seasonal contributions to the correlations of globally-averaged NEE_IAV against terrestrial water storage (TWS) and temperature, and respective uncertainties, using three approaches: atmospheric inversions, process-based vegetation models, and data-driven models. The three approaches agree that the tropics contribute over 63% of the global correlations, but differ on the dominant driver of the global NEE_IAV, because they disagree on seasonal temperature effects in the Northern Hemisphere (NH, >25°N). In the NH, inversions and process-based models show inter-seasonal compensation of temperature effects, inducing a global TWS dominance supported by observations. Data-driven models show weaker seasonal compensation, thereby estimating a global temperature dominance. We provide a roadmap to fully understand drivers of global NEE_IAV and discuss their implications for future carbon–climate feedbacks.

The dominant driver of variations in global land carbon sink remains unclear. Here the authors show that the seasonal compensation of temperature effects on land carbon sink in the Northern Hemisphere could induce a global water dominance.

Aerial and underground organs display specific metabolic strategies to cope with water stress under rising atmospheric CO2 in Fagus sylvatica L

Beech is known to be a moderately drought-sensitive tree species, and future increases in atmospheric concentrations of CO₂ ([CO₂ ]) could influence its ecological interactions, also with changes at the metabolic level. The metabolome of leaves and roots of drought-stressed beech seedlings grown under two different [CO₂ ] (400 (aCO₂ ) and 800 (eCO₂ ) ppm) was analyzed together with gas exchange parameters and water status. Water stress estimated from predawn leaf water potential (Ψ_pd ) was similar under both [CO₂ ], although eCO₂ had a positive impact on net photosynthesis and intrinsic water use efficiency. The aerial and underground organs showed different metabolomes. Leaves mainly stored C metabolites, while those of N and P accumulated differentially in roots. Drought triggered the proline and N-rich amino acids biosynthesis in roots through the activation of arginine and proline pathways. Besides the TCA cycle, polyols and soluble sugar biosynthesis were activated in roots, with no clear pattern seen in the leaves, prioritizing the root functioning as metabolites sink. eCO₂ slightly altered this metabolic acclimation to drought, reflecting mitigation of its effect. The leaves showed only minor changes, investing C surplus in secondary metabolites and malic acid. The TCA cycle metabolites and osmotically active substances increased in roots, but many other metabolites decreased as if the water stress was dampened. Above- and belowground plant metabolomes were differentially affected by two drivers of climate change, water scarcity and high [CO₂ ], showing different chemical responsiveness that could modulate the tree adaptation to future climatic scenarios.

Stimulation, Reduction and Compensation Growth, and Variable Phenological Responses to Spring and/or Summer–Autumn Warming in Corylus Taxa and Cornus sanguinea L

Understanding species-specific responses to climate change allows a better assessment of the possible impact of global warming on forest growth. We studied the responses of the shrub species Corylus avellana L., Corylus maxima Mill. and intermediate forms, together stated as the Corylus taxa, and Cornus sanguinea L. upon periodically elevated temperatures in spring and/or in summer–autumn. Experiments were performed in a common garden, with Belgian and Pyrenean provenances for Corylus avellana and Cornus sanguinea. In the Corylus taxa, a warmer spring resulted in a reduction in height and diameter growth. Remarkably, the reduced diameter increment was restored with full compensation in the following year. The height increment for Cornus sanguinea was larger upon a warmer summer–autumn, concurring with a later leaf senescence. Our results suggest that Corylus is more sensitive to spring warming, influencing growth negatively, whereas Cornus is more sensitive to summer–autumn warming, influencing height growth positively. These deviating responses can be explained, at least partly, by their diverging ecological niches, with the Corylus taxa being more shade-tolerant compared to Cornus sanguinea. The warm spring conditions advanced bud burst in all studied taxa, whereas the warm summer–autumn advanced leaf senescence but prolonged its duration in the Corylus taxa, as well as delayed this phenophase in Cornus sanguinea. Little to no after-effects of the temperature treatments were detected. Although Corylus avellana and Cornus sanguinea plants originated from similar origins, their growth and phenological responses in the common garden diverged, with Corylus being more stable and Cornus displaying more variation between the Belgian and Pyrenean provenances.

How will global change affect plant reproduction? A framework for mast seeding trends

Forest ecology traditionally focuses on plant growth and survival, leaving seed production as a major demographic process lacking a framework for how it will be affected by global change. Understanding plant reproductive responses to changing climate is complicated by masting, the annually variable seed production synchronized within populations. Predicting trends in masting is crucial, because masting impacts seed predation and pollination enough to override simple trends in mean seed production. Proximate mechanisms of seed production patterns in perennial plants are gathered to identify processes through which masting may be affected by a changing environment. Predicting trends in masting will require understanding the mechanisms that cause predictable seed failure after high-seed years, and the stochastic mechanisms that synchronize individuals in high-seed years.

Elevated CO2 moderates the impact of climate change on future bamboo distribution in Madagascar

The distribution of bamboo is sensitive to climate change and is also potentially affected by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations due to its C3 photosynthetic pathway. Yet the effect of CO₂ in climate impact assessments of potential changes in bamboo distribution has to date been overlooked. In this study, we proposed a simple and quantitative method to incorporate the impact of atmospheric CO₂ concentration into a species distribution modeling framework. To do so, we implemented 10 niche modeling algorithms with regionally downscaled climatic variables and combined field campaign observations. We assessed future climate impacts on the distribution of an economically and ecologically important and widely distributed bamboo species in Madagascar, and examined the effect of increasing CO₂ on future projections. Our results suggested that future climatic changes negatively impact potential bamboo distribution in Madagascar, leading to a decline of 34.8% of climatic suitability and a decline of 63.6 ± 3.2% in suitable areas towards 2100 under RCP 8.5. However, increasing atmosphere CO₂ offsets the climate impact for bamboo, and led to a smaller reduction of 19.8% in suitability and a potential distribution expansion of +111.6 ± 9.8% in newly suitable areas. We also found that the decline in climatic suitability for bamboo was related to increasing monthly potential evapotranspiration of the warmest quarter and minimum temperature of the warmest month. Conversely, the decreasing isothermality and increasing precipitation of the warmest quarter contributed to projected increase in bamboo-suitable areas. Our study suggested that elevated CO₂ may mitigate the decrease in climatic suitability and increase bamboo-suitable areas, through enhancing water use efficiency and decreasing potential evapotranspiration. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for the CO₂ effect on future plant species distributions, and provide a mechanistic approach to do so for ecosystems constrained by water.

Global maps and factors driving forest foliar elemental composition: the importance of evolutionary history

Consistent information on the current elemental composition of vegetation at global scale and the variables that determine it is lacking. To fill this gap, we gathered a total of 30 912 georeferenced records on woody plants foliar concentrations of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) from published databases, and produced global maps of foliar N, P and K concentrations for woody plants using neural networks at a resolution of 1 km² . We used data for climate, atmospheric deposition, soil and morphoclimatic groups to train the neural networks. Foliar N, P and K do not follow clear global latitudinal patterns but are consistent with the hypothesis of soil substrate age. We additionally built generalized linear mixed models to investigate the evolutionary history effect together with the effects of environmental effects. In this comparison, evolutionary history effects explained most of the variability in all cases (mostly > 60%). These results emphasize the determinant role of evolutionary history in foliar elemental composition, which should be incorporated in upcoming dynamic global vegetation models.

Response to Comments on "Recent global decline of CO2 fertilization effects on vegetation photosynthesis"

[Figure: see text].

Ectomycorrhizal access to organic nitrogen mediates CO2 fertilization response in a dominant temperate tree

Plant–mycorrhizal interactions mediate plant nitrogen (N) limitation and can inform model projections of the duration and strength of the effect of increasing CO₂ on plant growth. We present dendrochronological evidence of a positive, but context-dependent fertilization response of Quercus rubra L. to increasing ambient CO₂ (iCO₂) along a natural soil nutrient gradient in a mature temperate forest. We investigated this heterogeneous response by linking metagenomic measurements of ectomycorrhizal (ECM) fungal N-foraging traits and dendrochronological models of plant uptake of inorganic N and N bound in soil organic matter (N-SOM). N-SOM putatively enhanced tree growth under conditions of low inorganic N availability, soil conditions where ECM fungal communities possessed greater genomic potential to decay SOM and obtain N-SOM. These trees were fertilized by 38 years of iCO₂. In contrast, trees occupying inorganic N rich soils hosted ECM fungal communities with reduced SOM decay capacity and exhibited neutral growth responses to iCO₂. This study elucidates how the distribution of N-foraging traits among ECM fungal communities govern tree access to N-SOM and subsequent growth responses to iCO₂.

Root-mycorrhizal interactions could help explain the heterogeneity of plant responses to CO₂ fertilisation and nutrient availability. Here the authors combine tree-ring and metagenomic data to reveal that tree growth responses to increasing CO₂ along a soil nutrient gradient depend on the nitrogen foraging traits of ectomycorrhizal fungi.

Observed increasing water constraint on vegetation growth over the last three decades

Despite the growing interest in predicting global and regional trends in vegetation productivity in response to a changing climate, changes in water constraint on vegetation productivity (i.e., water limitations on vegetation growth) remain poorly understood. Here we conduct a comprehensive evaluation of changes in water constraint on vegetation growth in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere between 1982 and 2015. We document a significant increase in vegetation water constraint over this period. Remarkably divergent trends were found with vegetation water deficit areas significantly expanding, and water surplus areas significantly shrinking. The increase in water constraints associated with water deficit was also consistent with a decreasing response time to water scarcity, suggesting a stronger susceptibility of vegetation to drought. We also observed shortened water surplus period for water surplus areas, suggesting a shortened exposure to water surplus associated with humid conditions. These observed changes were found to be attributable to trends in temperature, solar radiation, precipitation, and atmospheric CO₂. Our findings highlight the need for a more explicit consideration of the influence of water constraints on regional and global vegetation under a warming climate.

Jiao et al. conducted a comprehensive evaluation of changes in water constraint on vegetation growth in the extratropical Northern Hemisphere between 1982 and 2015. They document a significant increase in vegetation water constraint over the last three decades.

Divergent responses of phenology and growth to summer and autumnal warming

Plant phenology is highly sensitive to climate change, and shifts in autumnal foliar senescence are critical for plant productivity and nutrient cycling. Global warming has delayed the timing of foliar senescence, but the response of autumnal foliar senescence to nonuniform seasonal warming remains poorly understood, with experimental evidence in trees especially scarce. We therefore conducted a field experiment on seasonally asymmetric warming on 2-year-old larch (Larix principis-rupprechtii) seedlings in two hydrologically contrasting years (wet 2018 and dry 2019). Autumnal and year-round warming significantly delayed the timing of foliar senescence by 6 and 7 d in 2018, the wet year, with corresponding temperature sensitivities of 6.73 ± 1.47 and 8.26 ± 1.00 d/°C, respectively. Interestingly, the dates of senescence did not change across the warming treatments in 2019, the dry year. However, there was no significant effect of summer warming on the timing of foliar senescence neither in the wet nor dry year. The delayed autumnal foliar senescence was responsible for an increase in biomass only in the wet year, 2018. In contrast, summer warming, but not autumnal warming, increased the mortality of the seedlings in both 2018 and 2019. These results suggest that the hydrological conditions substantially modify the response of autumnal phenology and growth to seasonal warming. Autumnal warming increases growth, whereas summer warming could cause carbon starvation/hydraulic failure, reduce growth, and lead to higher mortality. Our results suggest that the functioning, ecosystem services, and sustainability of forests in the future depend on the strength and pattern of nonuniform seasonal warming. This study can inspire new research in phenology and tree growth in experiments with asymmetric warming.

Increasing aridity will not offset CO2 fertilization in fast-growing eucalypts with access to deep soil water

Rising atmospheric [CO₂ ] (C_a ) generally enhances tree growth if nutrients are not limiting. However, reduced water availability and elevated evaporative demand may offset such fertilization. Trees with access to deep soil water may be able to mitigate such stresses and respond more positively to C_a . Here, we sought to evaluate how increased vapor pressure deficit and reduced precipitation are likely to modify the impact of elevated C_a (eC_a ) on tree productivity in an Australian Eucalyptus saligna Sm. plantation with access to deep soil water. We parameterized a forest growth simulation model (GOTILWA+) using data from two field experiments on E. saligna: a 2-year whole-tree chamber experiment with factorial C_a (ambient =380, elevated =620 μmol mol^-1 ) and watering treatments, and a 10-year stand-scale irrigation experiment. Model evaluation showed that GOTILWA+ can capture the responses of canopy C uptake to (1) rising vapor pressure deficit (D) under both C_a treatments; (2) alterations in tree water uptake from shallow and deep soil layers during soil dry-down; and (3) the impact of irrigation on tree growth. Simulations suggest that increasing C_a up to 700 μmol mol^-1 alone would result in a 33% increase in annual gross primary production (GPP) and a 62% increase in biomass over 10 years. However, a combined 48% increase in D and a 20% reduction in precipitation would halve these values. Our simulations identify high D conditions as a key limiting factor for GPP. They also suggest that rising C_a will compensate for increasing aridity limitations in E. saligna trees with access to deep soil water under non-nutrient limiting conditions, thereby reducing the negative impacts of global warming upon this eucalypt species. Simulation models not accounting for water sources available to deep-rooting trees are likely to overestimate aridity impacts on forest productivity and C stocks.

Increasing climatic sensitivity of global grassland vegetation biomass and species diversity correlates with water availability

Grasslands are key repositories of biodiversity and carbon storage and are heavily impacted by effects of global warming and changes in precipitation regimes. Patterns of grassland dynamics associated with variability in future climate conditions across spatiotemporal scales are yet to be adequately quantified. Here, we performed a global meta-analysis of year and growing season sensitivities of vegetation aboveground biomass (AGB), aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP), and species richness (SR) and diversity (Shannon index, H) to experimental climate warming and precipitation shifts. All four variables were sensitive to climate change. Their sensitivities to shifts in precipitation were correlated with local background water availability, such as mean annual precipitation (MAP) and aridity, and AGB and ANPP sensitivities were greater in dry habitats than in nonwater-limited habitats. There was no effect of duration of experiment (short vs long term) on sensitivities. Temporal trends in ANPP and SR sensitivity depended on local water availability; ANPP sensitivity to warming increased over time and SR sensitivity to irrigation decreased over time. Our results provide a global overview of the sensitivities of grassland function and diversity to climate change that will improve the understanding of ecological responses across spatiotemporal scales and inform policies for conservation in dry climates.

Vertical decoupling of soil nutrients and water under climate warming reduces plant cumulative nutrient uptake, water-use efficiency and productivity

Warming-induced desiccation of the fertile topsoil layer could lead to decreased nutrient diffusion, mobility, mineralization and uptake by roots. Increased vertical decoupling between nutrients in topsoil and water availability in subsoil/bedrock layers under warming could thereby reduce cumulative nutrient uptake over the growing season. We used a Mediterranean semiarid shrubland as model system to assess the impacts of warming-induced topsoil desiccation on plant water- and nutrient-use patterns. A 6 yr manipulative field experiment examined the effects of warming (2.5°C), rainfall reduction (30%) and their combination on soil resource utilization by Helianthemum squamatum shrubs. A drier fertile topsoil ('growth pool') under warming led to greater proportional utilization of water from deeper, wetter, but less fertile subsoil/bedrock layers ('maintenance pool') by plants. This was linked to decreased cumulative nutrient uptake, increased nonstomatal (nutritional) limitation of photosynthesis and reduced water-use efficiency, above-ground biomass growth and drought survival. Whereas a shift to greater utilization of water stored in deep subsoil/bedrock may buffer the negative impact of warming-induced topsoil desiccation on transpiration, this plastic response cannot compensate for the associated reduction in cumulative nutrient uptake and carbon assimilation, which may compromise the capacity of plants to adjust to a warmer and drier climate.

Microbial metabolism and necromass mediated fertilization effect on soil organic carbon after long-term community incubation in different climates

Understanding the effects of changing climate and long-term human activities on soil organic carbon (SOC) and the mediating roles of microorganisms is critical to maintain soil C stability in agricultural ecosystem. Here, we took samples from a long-term soil transplantation experiment, in which large transects of Mollisol soil in a cold temperate region were translocated to warm temperate and mid-subtropical regions to simulate different climate conditions, with a fertilization treatment on top. This study aimed to understand fertilization effect on SOC and the role of soil microorganisms featured after long-term community incubation in warm climates. After 12 years of soil transplantation, fertilization led to less reduction of SOC, in which aromatic C increased and the consumption of O-alkyl C and carbonyl C decreased. Soil live microbes were analyzed using propidium monoazide to remove DNAs from dead cells, and their network modulization explained 60.4% of variations in soil labile C. Single-cell Raman spectroscopy combined with D₂O isotope labeling indicated a higher metabolic activity of live microbes to use easily degradable C after soil transplantation. Compared with non-fertilization, there was a significant decrease in soil α- and β-glucosidase and delay on microbial growth with fertilization in warmer climate. Moreover, fertilization significantly increased microbial necromass as indicated by amino sugar content, and its contribution to soil resistant C reached 22.3%. This study evidentially highlights the substantial contribution of soil microbial metabolism and necromass to refractory C of SOC with addition of nutrients in the long-term.

Integrating the evidence for a terrestrial carbon sink caused by increasing atmospheric CO2

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂ ]) is increasing, which increases leaf-scale photosynthesis and intrinsic water-use efficiency. These direct responses have the potential to increase plant growth, vegetation biomass, and soil organic matter; transferring carbon from the atmosphere into terrestrial ecosystems (a carbon sink). A substantial global terrestrial carbon sink would slow the rate of [CO₂ ] increase and thus climate change. However, ecosystem CO₂ responses are complex or confounded by concurrent changes in multiple agents of global change and evidence for a [CO₂ ]-driven terrestrial carbon sink can appear contradictory. Here we synthesize theory and broad, multidisciplinary evidence for the effects of increasing [CO₂ ] (iCO₂ ) on the global terrestrial carbon sink. Evidence suggests a substantial increase in global photosynthesis since pre-industrial times. Established theory, supported by experiments, indicates that iCO₂ is likely responsible for about half of the increase. Global carbon budgeting, atmospheric data, and forest inventories indicate a historical carbon sink, and these apparent iCO₂ responses are high in comparison to experiments and predictions from theory. Plant mortality and soil carbon iCO₂ responses are highly uncertain. In conclusion, a range of evidence supports a positive terrestrial carbon sink in response to iCO₂ , albeit with uncertain magnitude and strong suggestion of a role for additional agents of global change.

Impacts of climate change on the livestock food supply chain; a review of the evidence

The potential impacts of climate change on current livestock systems worldwide are a major concern, and yet the topic is covered to a limited extent in global reports such as the ones produced by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. In this article, we review the risk of climate-related impacts along the land-based livestock food supply chain. Although a quantification of the net impacts of climate change on the livestock sector is beyond the reach of our current understanding, there is strong evidence that there will be impacts throughout the supply chain, from farm production to processing operations, storage, transport, retailing and human consumption. The risks of climate-related impacts are highly context-specific but expected to be higher in environments that are already hot and have limited socio-economic and institutional resources for adaptation. Large uncertainties remain as to climate futures and the exposure and responses of the interlinked human and natural systems to climatic changes over time. Consequently, adaptation choices will need to account for a wide range of possible futures, including those with low probability but large consequences.

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Risk results from the interaction of climate-related hazards with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems.

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Climate change will impact the livestock sector throughout the food supply chain⁠—from farm production to human consumption.

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Key hazards relate to climate change trends but also, and importantly, to climate variability and climate extremes.

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Large uncertainties remain as to climate futures and the exposure and responses of the interlinked human and natural systems.

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Adaptation choices will need to account for a wide range of possible futures.

Impact of Climate Change on Precipitation Extremes over Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam

In the context of climate change, the impact of hydro-meteorological extremes, such as floods and droughts, has become one of the most severe issues for the governors of mega-cities. The main purpose of this study is to assess the spatiotemporal changes in extreme precipitation indices over Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, between the near (2021–2050) and intermediate (2051–2080) future periods with respect to the baseline period (1980–2009). The historical extreme indices were calculated through observed daily rainfall data at 11 selected meteorological stations across the study area. The future extreme indices were projected based on a stochastic weather generator, the Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG), which incorporates climate projections from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) ensemble. Eight extreme precipitation indices, such as the consecutive dry days (CDDs), consecutive wet days (CWDs), number of very heavy precipitation days (R20mm), number of extremely heavy precipitation days (R25mm), maximum 1 d precipitation amount (RX1day), maximum 5 d precipitation amount (RX5day), very wet days (R95p), and simple daily intensity index (SDII) were selected to evaluate the multi-model ensemble mean changes of extreme indices in terms of intensity, duration, and frequency. The statistical significance, stability, and averaged magnitude of trends in these changes, thereby, were computed by the Mann-Kendall statistical techniques and Sen’s estimator, and applied to each extreme index. The results indicated a general increasing trend in most extreme indices for the future periods. In comparison with the near future period (2021–2050), the extreme intensity and frequency indices in the intermediate future period (2051–2080) present more statistically significant trends and higher growing rates. Furthermore, an increase in most extreme indices mainly occurs in some parts of the central and southern regions, while a decrease in those indices is often projected in the north of the study area.