Biogeographic distributions of neotropical trees reflect their directly measured drought tolerances

Climate change increases threat to plant diversity in tropical forests of Central America and southern Mexico

Global biodiversity is negatively affected by anthropogenic climate change. As species distributions shift due to increasing temperatures and precipitation fluctuations, many species face the risk of extinction. In this study, we explore the expected trend for plant species distributions in Central America and southern Mexico under two alternative Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) portraying moderate (RCP4.5) and severe (RCP8.5) increases in greenhouse gas emissions, combined with two species dispersal assumptions (limited and unlimited), for the 2061-2080 climate forecast. Using an ensemble approach employing three techniques to generate species distribution models, we classified 1924 plant species from the region's (sub)tropical forests according to IUCN Red List categories. To infer the spatial and taxonomic distribution of species' vulnerability under each scenario, we calculated the proportion of species in a threat category (Vulnerable, Endangered, Critically Endangered) at a pixel resolution of 30 arc seconds and by family. Our results show a high proportion (58-67%) of threatened species among the four experimental scenarios, with the highest proportion under RCP8.5 and limited dispersal. Threatened species were concentrated in montane areas and avoided lowland areas where conditions are likely to be increasingly inhospitable. Annual precipitation and diurnal temperature range were the main drivers of species' relative vulnerability. Our approach identifies strategic montane areas and taxa of conservation concern that merit urgent inclusion in management plans to improve climatic resilience in the Mesoamerican biodiversity hotspot. Such information is necessary to develop policies that prioritize vulnerable elements and mitigate threats to biodiversity under climate change.

Hydraulic variability of tropical forests is largely independent of water availability

Tropical rainforest woody plants have been thought to have uniformly low resistance to hydraulic failure and to function near the edge of their hydraulic safety margin (HSM), making these ecosystems vulnerable to drought; however, this may not be the case. Using data collected at 30 tropical forest sites for three key traits associated with drought tolerance, we show that site-level hydraulic diversity of leaf turgor loss point, resistance to embolism (P50 ), and HSMs is high across tropical forests and largely independent of water availability. Species with high HSMs (>1 MPa) and low P50 values (< -2 MPa) are common across the wet and dry tropics. This high site-level hydraulic diversity, largely decoupled from water stress, could influence which species are favoured and become dominant under a drying climate. High hydraulic diversity could also make these ecosystems more resilient to variable rainfall regimes.

New patterns of the tree beta diversity and its determinants in the largest savanna and wetland biomes of South America

Clear and data-driven bioregionalizations can provide a framework to test hypotheses and base biodiversity conservation. Here we used occurrence and abundance data in combination with objective analytical methods to propose two bioregionalization schemes for tree species of the Cerrado and the Pantanal in South America. We also evaluated the contribution of three sets of determinants of the occurrence- and abundance-based subregions. We compiled data on tree species composition from 894 local assemblages based on species occurrences, and from 658 local assemblages based on species abundances. We used an unconstrained community-level modelling approach and clustering techniques to identify and map tree subregions for the occurrence and the abundance data sets, separately. Hierarchical clustering analyses were conducted to investigate floristic affinities between the subregions and to map broader floristic regions. We used multinomial logistic regression models, deviance partitioning, and rank-sum tests to assess the main subregion correlates. We identified 18 occurrence- and four abundance-based subregions in the Cerrado-Pantanal. The hierarchical classifications grouped the occurrence-based subregions into nine floristic zones and abundance-based subregions into two broad floristic zones. Variation in subregions were explained mainly by environmental factors and spatial structure in both occurrence and abundance data sets. The occurrence- and abundance-based subregions are complementary approaches to disentangle macroecological patterns and to plan conservation efforts in the Cerrado and the Pantanal. Our findings based on occurrence data revealed more complex and interdigitated boundaries between subregions of tree species than previously reported. The environment, historical stability, and human effects act in a synergetic way on the distribution of the subregions. Finally, the relevance of contemporary environmental factors to the subregion patterns we found alert us to the profound impact global warming may have on the spatial organization of the Cerrado-Pantanal tree flora.

Demystifying the convergent ecological specialization of desiccation-tolerant vascular plants for water deficit

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Desiccation-tolerant vascular plants (DT plants) are able to tolerate the desiccation of their vegetative tissues; as a result, two untested paradigms can be found in the literature, despite contradictions to theoretical premises and empirical findings. First, it is widely accepted that DT plants form a convergent group of specialist plants to water deficit conditions. A derived paradigm is that DT plants are placed at the extreme end of stress tolerance. Here, we tested the hypotheses that DT plants (1) are in fact convergent specialists for water deficit conditions and (2) exhibit ecological strategies related to stress tolerance, conservative resource-use and survival.

METHODS

We used biogeographical and functional-traits approaches to address the mentioned paradigms and assess the species' ecological strategies. For this, 27 DT plants were used and compared to 27 phylogenetically related desiccation-sensitive vascular plants (DS plants).

KEY RESULTS

We could not confirm either of the two hypotheses. We found that despite converging in desiccation tolerance, DT plants differ in relation to the conditions in which they occur and the ecological strategies they use to deal with water deficit. We found that some DT plants exhibit advantageous responses for higher growth and resource acquisition, which are suitable responses to cope with more productive conditions or with higher disturbance. We discuss that the ability to tolerate desiccation could compensate for a drought vulnerability promoted by higher investment in growth and bring advantages to deal with quick and pronounced variation of water, rather than to drought solely.

CONCLUSIONS

DT plants are not only selected by drought as an environmental constraint. The alternative functional designs could promote the diversity of ecological strategies, which preclude their convergence to the same resources and conditions. Thus, DT plants are a heterogeneous group of plants in how they deal with drought, despite their desiccation tolerance ability.

How drought events during the last century have impacted biomass carbon in Amazonian rainforests

During the last two decades, inventory data show that droughts have reduced biomass carbon sink of the Amazon forest by causing mortality to exceed growth. However, process-based models have struggled to include drought-induced responses of growth and mortality and have not been evaluated against plot data. A process-based model, ORCHIDEE-CAN-NHA, including forest demography with tree cohorts, plant hydraulic architecture and drought-induced tree mortality, was applied over Amazonia rainforests forced by gridded climate fields and rising CO₂ from 1901 to 2019. The model reproduced the decelerating signal of net carbon sink and drought sensitivity of aboveground biomass (AGB) growth and mortality observed at forest plots across selected Amazon intact forests for 2005 and 2010. We predicted a larger mortality rate and a more negative sensitivity of the net carbon sink during the 2015/16 El Niño compared with the former droughts. 2015/16 was indeed the most severe drought since 1901 regarding both AGB loss and area experiencing a severe carbon loss. We found that even if climate change did increase mortality, elevated CO₂ contributed to balance the biomass mortality, since CO₂ -induced stomatal closure reduces transpiration, thus, offsets increased transpiration from CO₂ -induced higher foliage area.

The other side of tropical forest drought: do shallow water table regions of Amazonia act as large-scale hydrological refugia from drought?

Tropical forest function is of global significance to climate change responses, and critically determined by water availability patterns. Groundwater is tightly related to soil water through the water table depth (WT), but historically neglected in ecological studies. Shallow WT forests (WT < 5 m) are underrepresented in forest research networks and absent in eddy flux measurements, although they represent c. 50% of the Amazon and are expected to respond differently to global-change-related droughts. We review WT patterns and consequences for plants, emerging results, and advance a conceptual model integrating environment and trait distributions to predict climate change effects. Shallow WT forests have a distinct species composition, with more resource-acquisitive and hydrologically vulnerable trees, shorter canopies and lower biomass than deep WT forests. During 'normal' climatic years, shallow WT forests have higher mortality and lower productivity than deep WT forests, but during moderate droughts mortality is buffered and productivity increases. However, during severe drought, shallow WT forests may be more sensitive due to shallow roots and drought-intolerant traits. Our evidence supports the hypothesis of neglected shallow WT forests being resilient to moderate drought, challenging the prevailing view of widespread negative effects of climate change on Amazonian forests that ignores WT gradients, but predicts they could collapse under very strong droughts.

Spatial structure of the Caatinga woody flora: abundance patterns have environmental, Pleistocene, and indigenous drivers

Despite growing knowledge on the distribution and functioning of dryland vegetation types, their internal biodiversity structure (i.e., subregions) is much less studied. In the delineation of subregions, the use of species occurrence or abundance data may reveal different aspects of metacommunity structure. We revisit the issue of the bioregionalization of the woody flora of the Caatinga, the largest block of the dry forest and woodland biome in Latin America, using abundance data. We also evaluated the drivers of the spatial distribution of plant subregions: historical, current environmental and human effects. Using a K-means partition on interpolated NMDS axes, we identified 10 abundance subregions. Aridity, topography and soil, biome stability since the Pleistocene, and historical indigenous effects were retained by a Multinomial Logistic regression model, and their combined fractions explained most of the abundance variability in subregions. The subregions we present may support spatialized conservation and management decisions in the lack of detailed local data. The present results confirm the Caatinga woody flora broad composition patterns uncovered using presence-absence data in previous studies. Additionally, we found larger subregions than those identified with presence and absence data, suggesting the existence of oligarchies of dominant species in distinct parts of the Caatinga biome.

Leaf habit affects the distribution of drought sensitivity but not water transport efficiency in the tropics

Considering the global intensification of aridity in tropical biomes due to climate change, we need to understand what shapes the distribution of drought sensitivity in tropical plants. We conducted a pantropical data synthesis representing 1117 species to test whether xylem-specific hydraulic conductivity (K_S ), water potential at leaf turgor loss (Ψ_TLP ) and water potential at 50% loss of K_S (Ψ_P50 ) varied along climate gradients. The Ψ_TLP and Ψ_P50 increased with climatic moisture only for evergreen species, but K_S did not. Species with high Ψ_TLP and Ψ_P50 values were associated with both dry and wet environments. However, drought-deciduous species showed high Ψ_TLP and Ψ_P50 values regardless of water availability, whereas evergreen species only in wet environments. All three traits showed a weak phylogenetic signal and a short half-life. These results suggest strong environmental controls on trait variance, which in turn is modulated by leaf habit along climatic moisture gradients in the tropics.

Divergence of hydraulic traits among tropical forest trees across topographic and vertical environment gradients in Borneo

Fine-scale topographic-edaphic gradients are common in tropical forests and drive species spatial turnover and marked changes in forest structure and function. We evaluate how hydraulic traits of tropical tree species relate to vertical and horizontal spatial niche specialization along such a gradient. Along a topographic-edaphic gradient with uniform climate in Borneo, we measured six key hydraulic traits in 156 individuals of differing heights in 13 species of Dipterocarpaceae. We investigated how hydraulic traits relate to habitat, tree height and their interaction on this gradient. Embolism resistance increased in trees on sandy soils but did not vary with tree height. By contrast, water transport capacity increased on sandier soils and with increasing tree height. Habitat and height only interact for hydraulic efficiency, with slope for height changing from positive to negative from the clay-rich to the sandier soil. Habitat type influenced trait-trait relationships for all traits except wood density. Our data reveal that variation in the hydraulic traits of dipterocarps is driven by a combination of topographic-edaphic conditions, tree height and taxonomic identity. Our work indicates that hydraulic traits play a significant role in shaping forest structure across topographic-edaphic and vertical gradients and may contribute to niche specialization among dipterocarp species.

Addressing Gender Inequities in Forest Science and Research

Forest research and professional workforces continue to be dominated by men, particularly at senior and management levels. In this review, we identify some of the historical and ongoing barriers to improved gender inclusion and suggest some solutions. We showcase a selection of women in forestry from different disciplines and parts of the globe to highlight a range of research being conducted by women in forests. Boosting gender equity in forest disciplines requires a variety of approaches across local, regional and global scales. It is also important to include intersectional analyses when identifying barriers for women in forestry, but enhanced equity, diversity and inclusion will improve outcomes for forest ecosystems and social values of forests, with potential additional economic benefits.

Increased mortality of tropical tree seedlings during the extreme 2015-16 El Niño

As extreme climate events are predicted to become more frequent because of global climate change, understanding their impacts on natural systems is crucial. Tropical forests are vulnerable to droughts associated with extreme El Niño events. However, little is known about how tropical seedling communities respond to El Niño-related droughts, even though patterns of seedling survival shape future forest structure and diversity. Using long-term data from eight tropical moist forests spanning a rainfall gradient in central Panama, we show that community-wide seedling mortality increased by 11% during the extreme 2015-16 El Niño, with mortality increasing most in drought-sensitive species and in wetter forests. These results indicate that severe El Niño-related droughts influence understory dynamics in tropical forests, with effects varying both within and across sites. Our findings suggest that predicted increases in the frequency of extreme El Niño events will alter tropical plant communities through their effects on early life stages.

Plant functional types broadly describe water use strategies in the Caatinga, a seasonally dry tropical forest in northeast Brazil

In seasonally dry tropical forests, plant functional type can be classified as deciduous low wood density, deciduous high wood density, or evergreen high wood density species. While deciduousness is often associated with drought-avoidance and low wood density is often associated with tissue water storage, the degree to which these functional types may correspond to diverging and unique water use strategies has not been extensively tested.We examined (a) tolerance to water stress, measured by predawn and mid-day leaf water potential; (b) water use efficiency, measured via foliar δ13C; and (c) access to soil water, measured via stem water δ18O.We found that deciduous low wood density species maintain high leaf water potential and low water use efficiency. Deciduous high wood density species have lower leaf water potential and variable water use efficiency. Both groups rely on shallow soil water. Evergreen high wood density species have low leaf water potential, higher water use efficiency, and access alternative water sources. These findings indicate that deciduous low wood density species are drought avoiders, with a specialized strategy for storing root and stem water. Deciduous high wood density species are moderately drought tolerant, and evergreen high wood density species are the most drought tolerant group.Synthesis. Our results broadly support the plant functional type framework as a way to understand water use strategies, but also highlight species-level differences.

The contribution of environmental and dispersal filters on phylogenetic and taxonomic beta diversity patterns in Amazonian tree communities

Environmental and dispersal filters are key determinants of species distributions of Amazonian tree communities. However, a comprehensive analysis of the role of environmental and dispersal filters is needed to understand the ecological and evolutionary processes that drive phylogenetic and taxonomic turnover of Amazonian tree communities. We compare measures of taxonomic and phylogenetic beta diversity in 41 one-hectare plots to test the relative importance of climate, soils, geology, geomorphology, pure spatial variables and the spatial variation of environmental drivers of phylogenetic and taxonomic turnover in Ecuadorian Amazon tree communities. We found low phylogenetic and high taxonomic turnover with respect to environmental and dispersal filters. In addition, our results suggest that climate is a significantly better predictor of phylogenetic turnover and taxonomic turnover than geomorphology and soils at all spatial scales. The influence of climate as a predictor of phylogenetic turnover was stronger at broader spatial scales (50 km²) whereas geomorphology and soils appear to be better predictors of taxonomic turnover at mid (5 km²) and fine spatial scales (0.5 km²) but a weak predictor of phylogenetic turnover at broad spatial scales. We also found that the combined effect of geomorphology and soils was significantly higher for taxonomic turnover at all spatial scales but not for phylogenetic turnover at large spatial scales. Geographic distances as proxy of dispersal limitation was a better predictor of phylogenetic turnover at distances of 50 < 500 km. Our findings suggest that climatic variation at regional scales can better predict phylogenetic and taxonomic turnover than geomorphology and soils.

Patterns and mechanisms of spatial variation in tropical forest productivity, woody residence time, and biomass

Tropical forests vary widely in biomass carbon (C) stocks and fluxes even after controlling for forest age. A mechanistic understanding of this variation is critical to accurately predicting responses to global change. We review empirical studies of spatial variation in tropical forest biomass, productivity and woody residence time, focusing on mature forests. Woody productivity and biomass decrease from wet to dry forests and with elevation. Within lowland forests, productivity and biomass increase with temperature in wet forests, but decrease with temperature where water becomes limiting. Woody productivity increases with soil fertility, whereas residence time decreases, and biomass responses are variable, consistent with an overall unimodal relationship. Areas with higher disturbance rates and intensities have lower woody residence time and biomass. These environmental gradients all involve both direct effects of changing environments on forest C fluxes and shifts in functional composition - including changing abundances of lianas - that substantially mitigate or exacerbate direct effects. Biogeographic realms differ significantly and importantly in productivity and biomass, even after controlling for climate and biogeochemistry, further demonstrating the importance of plant species composition. Capturing these patterns in global vegetation models requires better mechanistic representation of water and nutrient limitation, plant compositional shifts and tree mortality.

Metabarcoding advances for ecology and biogeography of Neotropical protists: what do we know, where do we go?

Abstract: The Neotropics is one of the most diverse regions of the globe in terms of plants and animal species. Regarding the microbial world, however, little is known about the diversity and biogeography patterns of microorganisms in the Neotropics. The biogeography of several microbial taxonomic groups is still missing and/or incomplete, such as the protists. Despite the hard taxonomic identification of protists, the advance of molecular techniques (e.g., metabarcoding) have allowed to better explore the distribution of several protistan groups. Our goal here was to summarize the available information of Neotropical protists, focusing on metabarcoding studies, to explore what these data evidence on their ecology and biogeography. For this, we reviewed the findings from all articles that focused on or included the terrestrial protists using a metabarcoding approach and identified the gaps and future perspectives in this research field. We found that Neotropical protistan diversity patterns seem to be, at least in part, congruent with that of macro-organisms and, different than plants and bacteria, just weakly explained by environmental variables. We argue that studies with standardized protocols including different ecoregions are necessary, such as temperate forests, grasslands, and savannas from Southern of South America and Northern Atlantic Forest, to fully characterize the ecology and biogeography on Neotropical protists. Furthermore, dismembering evolutionary lineages and functional guilds of protists are important to better understand the relationship between diversity, dispersal abilities, and functionality of particular taxa of protists in their habitats.

Tree mode of death and mortality risk factors across Amazon forests

The carbon sink capacity of tropical forests is substantially affected by tree mortality. However, the main drivers of tropical tree death remain largely unknown. Here we present a pan-Amazonian assessment of how and why trees die, analysing over 120,000 trees representing > 3800 species from 189 long-term RAINFOR forest plots. While tree mortality rates vary greatly Amazon-wide, on average trees are as likely to die standing as they are broken or uprooted-modes of death with different ecological consequences. Species-level growth rate is the single most important predictor of tree death in Amazonia, with faster-growing species being at higher risk. Within species, however, the slowest-growing trees are at greatest risk while the effect of tree size varies across the basin. In the driest Amazonian region species-level bioclimatic distributional patterns also predict the risk of death, suggesting that these forests are experiencing climatic conditions beyond their adaptative limits. These results provide not only a holistic pan-Amazonian picture of tree death but large-scale evidence for the overarching importance of the growth-survival trade-off in driving tropical tree mortality.

Long-term droughts may drive drier tropical forests towards increased functional, taxonomic and phylogenetic homogeneity

Tropical ecosystems adapted to high water availability may be highly impacted by climatic changes that increase soil and atmospheric moisture deficits. Many tropical regions are experiencing significant changes in climatic conditions, which may induce strong shifts in taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity of forest communities. However, it remains unclear if and to what extent tropical forests are shifting in these facets of diversity along climatic gradients in response to climate change. Here, we show that changes in climate affected all three facets of diversity in West Africa in recent decades. Taxonomic and functional diversity increased in wetter forests but tended to decrease in forests with drier climate. Phylogenetic diversity showed a large decrease along a wet-dry climatic gradient. Notably, we find that all three facets of diversity tended to be higher in wetter forests. Drier forests showed functional, taxonomic and phylogenetic homogenization. Understanding how different facets of diversity respond to a changing environment across climatic gradients is essential for effective long-term conservation of tropical forest ecosystems.

Different aspects of biodiversity may not necessarily converge in their response to climate change. Here, the authors investigate 25-year shifts in taxonomic, functional and phylogenetic diversity of tropical forests along a spatial climate gradient in West Africa, showing that drier forests are less stable than wetter forests.

A catastrophic tropical drought kills hydraulically vulnerable tree species

Drought-related tree mortality is now a widespread phenomenon predicted to increase in magnitude with climate change. However, the patterns of which species and trees are most vulnerable to drought, and the underlying mechanisms have remained elusive, in part due to the lack of relevant data and difficulty of predicting the location of catastrophic drought years in advance. We used long-term demographic records and extensive databases of functional traits and distribution patterns to understand the responses of 20-53 species to an extreme drought in a seasonally dry tropical forest in Costa Rica, which occurred during the 2015 El Niño Southern Oscillation event. Overall, species-specific mortality rates during the drought ranged from 0% to 34%, and varied little as a function of tree size. By contrast, hydraulic safety margins correlated well with probability of mortality among species, while morphological or leaf economics spectrum traits did not. This firmly suggests hydraulic traits as targets for future research.

Wood allocation trade-offs between fiber wall, fiber lumen, and axial parenchyma drive drought resistance in neotropical trees

Functional relationships between wood density and measures of xylem hydraulic safety and efficiency are ambiguous, especially in wet tropical forests. In this meta-analysis, we move beyond wood density per se and identify relationships between xylem allocated to fibers, parenchyma, and vessels and measures of hydraulic safety and efficiency. We analyzed published data of xylem traits, hydraulic properties and measures of drought resistance from neotropical tree species retrieved from 346 sources. We found that xylem volume allocation to fiber walls increases embolism resistance, but at the expense of specific conductivity and sapwood capacitance. Xylem volume investment in fiber lumen increases capacitance, while investment in axial parenchyma is associated with higher specific conductivity. Dominant tree taxa from wet forests prioritize xylem allocation to axial parenchyma at the expense of fiber walls, resulting in a low embolism resistance for a given wood density and a high vulnerability to drought-induced mortality. We conclude that strong trade-offs between xylem allocation to fiber walls, fiber lumen, and axial parenchyma drive drought resistance in neotropical trees. Moreover, the benefits of xylem allocation to axial parenchyma in wet tropical trees might not outweigh the consequential low embolism resistance under more frequent and severe droughts in a changing climate.

Disentangling the effects of environment and ontogeny on tree functional dimensions for congeneric species in tropical forests

Soil water and nutrient availability are key drivers of tree species distribution and forest ecosystem functioning, with strong species differences in water and nutrient use. Despite growing evidence for intraspecific trait differences, it remains unclear under which circumstances the effects of environmental gradients trump those of ontogeny and taxonomy on important functional dimensions related to resource use, particularly in tropical forests. Here, we explore how physiological, chemical, and morphological traits related to resource use vary between life stages in four species within the genus Micropholis that is widespread in lowland Amazonia. Specifically, we evaluate how environment, developmental stage, and taxonomy contribute to single-trait variation and multidimensional functional strategies. We find that environment, developmental stage, and taxonomy differentially contribute to functional dimensions. Habitats and seasons shape physiological and chemical traits related to water and nutrient use, whereas developmental stage and taxonomic identity impact morphological traits -especially those related to the leaf economics spectrum. Our findings suggest that combining environment, ontogeny, and taxonomy allows for a better understanding of important functional dimensions in tropical trees and highlights the need for integrating tree physiological and chemical traits with classically used morphological traits to improve predictions of tropical forests' responses to environmental change.

Comparative drought resistance of temperate grassland species: testing performance trade-offs and the relation to distribution

To improve projections of consequences of increasing intensity and frequency of drought events for grasslands, we need a thorough understanding of species performance responses to drought, of performance trade-offs and how drought resistance is related to species distributions. However, comparative and quantitative assessments of whole-plant drought resistance that allow to rigorously address these aspects are lacking for temperate grassland species. We conducted a common garden experiment with 40 common temperate grassland species to compare species survival and growth under intense drought and well-irrigated conditions. Overall, survival and growth were significantly reduced under drought, with the effect varying across species. Species ranking of drought damage and survival remained consistent with progressing drought. No performance trade-offs emerged between optimal growth and drought resistance of survival (‘growth–stress tolerance’ trade-off hypothesis), or between growth under well-watered and dry conditions (‘growth rates’ trade-off hypothesis). Species local- and large-scale association with moisture (Ellenberg F value and rainfall niche) was not related to their drought resistance. Overall, our results imply that trade-offs and differences of species fundamental drought resistance are not the main drivers of hydrological niche differentiation, species coexistence and their distribution across moisture gradients. The comparative experimental assessment of species whole-plant drought responses we present provides a basis to increase our understanding of current grassland responses to variation of moisture regimes and for projecting consequences of future changes.

Performance of tropical forest seedlings under shade and drought: an interspecific trade-off in demographic responses

Seedlings in moist tropical forests must cope with deep shade and seasonal drought. However, the interspecific relationship between seedling performance in shade and drought remains unsettled. We quantified spatiotemporal variation in shade and drought in the seasonal moist tropical forest on Barro Colorado Island (BCI), Panama, and estimated responses of naturally regenerating seedlings as the slope of the relationship between performance and shade or drought intensity. Our performance metrics were relative height growth and first-year survival. We investigated the relationship between shade and drought responses for up to 63 species. There was an interspecific trade-off in species responses to shade versus species responses to dry season intensity; species that performed worse in the shade did not suffer during severe dry seasons and vice versa. This trade-off emerged in part from the absence of species that performed particularly well or poorly in both drought and shade. If drought stress in tropical forests increases with climate change and as solar radiation is higher during droughts, the trade-off may reinforce a shift towards species that resist drought but perform poorly in the shade by releasing them from deep shade.

Compositional response of Amazon forests to climate change

Most of the planet's diversity is concentrated in the tropics, which includes many regions undergoing rapid climate change. Yet, while climate-induced biodiversity changes are widely documented elsewhere, few studies have addressed this issue for lowland tropical ecosystems. Here we investigate whether the floristic and functional composition of intact lowland Amazonian forests have been changing by evaluating records from 106 long-term inventory plots spanning 30 years. We analyse three traits that have been hypothesized to respond to different environmental drivers (increase in moisture stress and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations): maximum tree size, biogeographic water-deficit affiliation and wood density. Tree communities have become increasingly dominated by large-statured taxa, but to date there has been no detectable change in mean wood density or water deficit affiliation at the community level, despite most forest plots having experienced an intensification of the dry season. However, among newly recruited trees, dry-affiliated genera have become more abundant, while the mortality of wet-affiliated genera has increased in those plots where the dry season has intensified most. Thus, a slow shift to a more dry-affiliated Amazonia is underway, with changes in compositional dynamics (recruits and mortality) consistent with climate-change drivers, but yet to significantly impact whole-community composition. The Amazon observational record suggests that the increase in atmospheric CO₂ is driving a shift within tree communities to large-statured species and that climate changes to date will impact forest composition, but long generation times of tropical trees mean that biodiversity change is lagging behind climate change.

Short-term effects of drought on tropical forest do not fully predict impacts of repeated or long-term drought: gas exchange versus growth

Are short-term responses by tropical rainforest to drought (e.g. during El Niño) sufficient to predict changes over the long-term, or from repeated drought? Using the world's only long-term (16-year) drought experiment in tropical forest we examine predictability from short-term measurements (1-2 years). Transpiration was maximized in droughted forest: it consumed all available throughfall throughout the 16 years of study. Leaf photosynthetic capacity [Formula: see text] was maintained, but only when averaged across tree size groups. Annual transpiration in droughted forest was less than in control, with initial reductions (at high biomass) imposed by foliar stomatal control. Tree mortality increased after year three, leading to an overall biomass loss of 40%; over the long-term, the main constraint on transpiration was thus imposed by the associated reduction in sapwood area. Altered tree mortality risk may prove predictable from soil and plant hydraulics, but additional monitoring is needed to test whether future biomass will stabilize or collapse. Allocation of assimilate differed over time: stem growth and reproductive output declined in the short-term, but following mortality-related changes in resource availability, both showed long-term resilience, with partial or full recovery. Understanding and simulation of these phenomena and related trade-offs in allocation will advance more effectively through greater use of optimization and probabilistic modelling approaches.This article is part of a discussion meeting issue 'The impact of the 2015/2016 El Niño on the terrestrial tropical carbon cycle: patterns, mechanisms and implications'.

Ecosystem heterogeneity and diversity mitigate Amazon forest resilience to frequent extreme droughts

The impact of increases in drought frequency on the Amazon forest's composition, structure and functioning remain uncertain. We used a process- and individual-based ecosystem model (ED2) to quantify the forest's vulnerability to increased drought recurrence. We generated meteorologically realistic, drier-than-observed rainfall scenarios for two Amazon forest sites, Paracou (wetter) and Tapajós (drier), to evaluate the impacts of more frequent droughts on forest biomass, structure and composition. The wet site was insensitive to the tested scenarios, whereas at the dry site biomass declined when average rainfall reduction exceeded 15%, due to high mortality of large-sized evergreen trees. Biomass losses persisted when year-long drought recurrence was shorter than 2-7 yr, depending upon soil texture and leaf phenology. From the site-level scenario results, we developed regionally applicable metrics to quantify the Amazon forest's climatological proximity to rainfall regimes likely to cause biomass loss > 20% in 50 yr according to ED2 predictions. Nearly 25% (1.8 million km² ) of the Amazon forests could experience frequent droughts and biomass loss if mean annual rainfall or interannual variability changed by 2σ. At least 10% of the high-emission climate projections (CMIP5/RCP8.5 models) predict critically dry regimes over 25% of the Amazon forest area by 2100.

Measuring resilience and assessing vulnerability of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change in South America

Climate change has been identified as the primary threat to the integrity and functioning of ecosystems in this century, although there is still much uncertainty about its effects and the degree of vulnerability for different ecosystems to this threat. Here we propose a new methodological approach capable of measuring and mapping the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems at large scales based on their climatic niche. To do this, we used high spatial resolution remote sensing data and ecological niche modeling techniques to calculate and spatialize the resilience of three stable states of ecosystems in South America: forest, savanna, and grassland. Also, we evaluated the sensitivity of ecosystems to climate stress, the likelihood of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions, and their respective adaptive capacities in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that forests, the most productive and biodiverse terrestrial ecosystems on the earth, are more vulnerable to climate change than savannas or grasslands. Forests showed less resistance to climate stress and a higher chance of exposure to non-analogous climatic conditions. If this scenario occurs, the forest ecosystems would have less chance of adaptation compared to savannas or grasslands because of their narrow climate niche. Therefore, we can conclude that a possible consolidation of non-analogous climatic conditions would lead to a loss of resilience in the forest ecosystem, significantly increasing the chance of a critical transition event to another stable state with a lower density of vegetation cover (e.g., savanna or grassland).