Atrial fibrillation and the risk of myocardial infarction: a nation-wide propensity-matched study

The association of fatty liver index and metabolic syndrome with cardiovascular outcomes, liver-related mortality, and all-cause mortality: a nationwide cohort study

We investigated the risk of cardiovascular events, all-cause mortality, and liver-related mortality according to the presence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and fatty liver index (FLI). In this retrospective longitudinal population-based cohort study, we used Korean National Health Insurance Service data from 2009 to 2012. Nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) was defined as FLI ≥ 60. Risk of all-cause mortality, liver-related mortality, and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) including myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, heart failure (HF), and cardiovascular disease (CVD)-related mortality was assessed according to the presence of MetS and FLI among adults (aged 40 to 80 years) who underwent health examinations (n = 769,422). During a median 8.59 years of follow up, 44,356 (5.8%) cases of MACE, 24,429 (3.2%) cases of all-cause mortality, and 1114 (0.1%) cases of liver-related mortality were detected in the entire cohort. When the FLI < 30 without MetS group was set as a reference, the FLI ≥ 60 with MetS group had the highest risk of MACE (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] 2.05, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.98-2.13) and all-cause mortality (aHR 1.96, 95% CI 1.86-2.07). The risk of liver-related mortality (aHR 10.71, 95% CI 8.05-14.25) was highest in the FLI ≥ 60 without MetS group. The FLI ≥ 60 with MetS group had a higher risk of MACE (aHR 1.39, 95%CI 1.28-1.51), a lower risk of liver-related mortality (aHR 0.44, 95%CI 0.33-0.59), and no significant difference in all-cause mortality compared with the FLI ≥ 60 without MetS group. The FLI ≥ 60 with MetS group was associated with the highest risk of MACE and the FLI ≥ 60 without MetS group had the highest risk liver-related mortality, but there was no significant difference in all-cause mortality between two groups. In conclusion, as FLI levels increase, the risk of MACE increases, and the risk increases additively in the presence of MetS. The risk of liver-related mortality increases with higher FLI levels, the effect of high FLI on increased risk is more significant in groups without MetS compared to those with MetS.

Mendelian randomization reveals plasminogen as a common therapeutic target for myocardial infarction and atrial fibrillation

Introduction

Plasma proteins play essential roles in myocardial infarction (MI) and atrial fibrillation (AF); however, it remains unknown whether the two disorders share causal plasma proteins.

Methods

The present study utilizes cis-protein quantitative trait loci (cis-pQTLs) for 4,719 plasma proteins to assess their causality on MI and AF.

Results

Two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) identifies 21 and 9 plasma proteins for MI and AF, respectively (FDR P<0.05), with plasminogen (PLG) being a commonly protective factor against both diseases. Multi-trait MR suggests that PLG is also protective against coronary atherosclerosis. PheWAS analysis identifies associations of six cis-pQTLs with both MI and AF, i.e., rs11751347 (PLG), rs11591147 (PCSK9), rs77347777 (ITIH4), rs936228 (ULK3), rs2261033 (AIF1V), and rs2711897 (BDH2). Furthermore, interactions exist among the causal plasma proteins, with PLG directly interacting with multiple others. Drug-gene databases suggest that PLG activators, such as Urokinase, Reteplase, Streptokinase, Alteplase, Anistreplase, Tenecteplase, Desmoteplase, and Defibrotide sodium may serve as common therapeutic drugs for MI and AF.

Conclusion

Our study provides a causal inference of human plasma proteins in MI and AF. Several of the identified proteins and single nucleotide polymorphisms (sNPs) exert pleiotropic effects on other cardiometabolic phenotypes, indicating their crucial roles in the pathology of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Our study provides new insights into the shared causality and drugs for MI and AF.

Peak left atrial longitudinal strain and incident atrial fibrillation in the general population: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the commonest supraventricular arrhythmia in adults. Timely AF diagnosis seems to ameliorate patients prognosis.

PURPOSE

To investigate the association between peak left atrial longitudinal strain (PALS) and new onset AF in the general population.

OBJECTIVES

We searched major electronic databases for articles assessing the relationship between PALS and incident AF.

RESULTS

Eight studies (11,145 patients) were analysed. Lower levels of PALS were significantly associated with higher risk of incident AF (HR: 0.95; 95%CI: 0.92-0.97, I2: 83%). According to the diagnostic accuracy meta-analysis, PALS <33.4% presents 64% (95%CI: 46-79%) sensitivity and 69% (95%CI: 63-75%) specificity.

CONCLUSIONS

In a relatively healthy population, lower levels of PALS were significantly associated with incident AF. The overall diagnostic accuracy was moderate. Lower levels of PALS seem to justify an opportunistic - rather than a systematic-screening approach. These findings could allow more efficient utilisation of healthcare resources.

Atrial cardiomyopathy revisited-evolution of a concept: a clinical consensus statement of the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) of the ESC, the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS), the Asian Pacific Heart Rhythm Society (APHRS), and the Latin American Heart Rhythm Society (LAHRS)

AIMS

The concept of "atrial cardiomyopathy" (AtCM) had been percolating through the literature since its first mention in 1972. Since then, publications using the term were sporadic until the decision was made to convene an expert working group with representation from four multinational arrhythmia organizations to prepare a consensus document on atrial cardiomyopathy in 2016 (EHRA/HRS/APHRS/SOLAECE expert consensus on atrial cardiomyopathies: definition, characterization, and clinical implication). Subsequently, publications on AtCM have increased progressively.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The present consensus document elaborates the 2016 AtCM document further to implement a simple AtCM staging system (AtCM stages 1-3) by integrating biomarkers, atrial geometry, and electrophysiological changes. However, the proposed AtCM staging needs clinical validation. Importantly, it is clearly stated that the presence of AtCM might serve as a substrate for the development of atrial fibrillation (AF) and AF may accelerates AtCM substantially, but AtCM per se needs to be viewed as a separate entity.

CONCLUSION

Thus, the present document serves as a clinical consensus statement of the European Heart Rhythm Association (EHRA) of the ESC, the Heart Rhythm Society (HRS), the Asian Pacific Heart Rhythm Society (APHRS), and the Latin American Heart Rhythm Society (LAHRS) to contribute to the evolution of the AtCM concept.

Association between weight loss and cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in Korea: A nationwide cohort study

AIMS

While the benefit of weight loss in reducing the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is recognized, its association with CVD mortality remains controversial. This study investigates the association between weight loss and the incidence of CVD outcomes.

METHODS

This was a 7.2-year retrospective cohort study of 1,020,533 adults aged 40-80 years who underwent at least two general health checkups within a 2-year interval in Korea. Weight was measured by trained examiners at certified hospitals. We used Cox proportional hazards models to examine the association between weight loss and the incidence of CVD outcomes.

RESULTS

Weight loss of more than 3 % was associated with an increased risk of combined CVD events (hazard ratio [HR] for moderate weight loss: 1.24, 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.21-1.28; HR for severe weight loss: 1.45, 95 % CI: 1.33-1.57). Weight loss was significantly associated with an increased risk of both nonfatal CVD events and CVD mortality, but regular exercise mitigated the adverse effects on CVD mortality.

CONCLUSIONS

Weight loss of more than 3% is associated with an increased risk of a combined CVD events, consistent across most risk factors. However, regular exercise may reduce the adverse effects on CVD mortality, suggesting a potential protective role of physical activity.

Adequacy of Dialysis and Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in Patients Undergoing Hemodialysis

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) can lead to stroke, heart failure, and mortality and has a greater prevalence in dialysis patients than in the general population. Several studies have suggested that uremic toxins may contribute to the development of AF. However, the association between dialysis adequacy and incident AF has not been well established.

METHODS

In this retrospective nationwide cohort study, we analyzed data from the Korean National Periodic Hemodialysis Quality Assessment from 2013 to 2015 of patients who received outpatient maintenance hemodialysis 3× a week. The main exposure was single pooled Kt/V (spKt/V), which is the dialysis adequacy index, and the primary outcome was the development of AF. For the primary analysis, patients were categorized into quartiles according to baseline spKt/V. The lowest quartile, representing the lowest adequacy, was used as the reference group. Fine-Gray subdistribution hazard models were used, treating all-cause mortality as a competing risk.

RESULTS

Of 25 173 patients, the mean age was 60 (51-69) years, and 14 772 (58.7%) were men. During a median follow-up of 5.7 years, incident AF occurred in a total of 3883 (15.4%) patients. Participants with a higher spKt/V tended to have lower AF incidence. In survival analysis, a graded association was observed between the risk of incident AF and spKt/V quartiles: subdistribution hazard ratios and 95% CIs for the second, third, and the highest quartile compared with the lowest quartile were 0.90 (95% CI, 0.82-0.98), 0.84 (95% CI, 0.77-0.93), and 0.79 (95% CI, 0.72-0.88), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

This nationwide cohort study showed that a higher spKt/V is associated with a reduced risk of incident AF. These findings suggests that reducing uremic toxin burden through enhanced dialysis clearance may be associated with a lower risk of AF development in patients undergoing maintenance hemodialysis.

Long-term outcomes after hospitalization for atrial fibrillation or flutter

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Atrial fibrillation (AF) and flutter are common causes of hospitalizations but contemporary long-term outcomes following these episodes are uncertain. This study assessed outcomes up to 10 years after an acute AF or flutter hospitalization.

METHODS

Patients hospitalized acutely with a primary diagnosis of AF or flutter from 2008-17 from all public and most private hospitals in Australia and New Zealand were included. Kaplan-Meier methods and flexible parametric survival modelling were used to estimate survival and loss in life expectancy, respectively. Competing risk model accounting for death was used when estimating incidence of non-fatal outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 260 492 adults (mean age 70.5 ± 14.4 years, 49.6% female) were followed up for 1 068 009 person-years (PY), during which 69 167 died (incidence rate 6.5/100 PY) with 91.2% survival at 1 year, 72.7% at 5 years, and 55.2% at 10 years. Estimated loss in life expectancy was 2.6 years, or 16.8% of expected life expectancy. Re-hospitalizations for heart failure (2.9/100 PY), stroke (1.7/100 PY), and myocardial infarction (1.1/100 PY) were common with respective cumulative incidences of 16.8%, 11.0%, and 7.1% by 10 years. Re-hospitalization for AF or flutter occurred in 21.3% by 1 year, 35.3% by 5 years, and 41.2% by 10 years (11.6/100 PY). The cumulative incidence of patients undergoing catheter ablation of AF was 6.5% at 10 years (1.2/100 PY).

CONCLUSIONS

Patients hospitalized for AF or flutter had high death rates with an average 2.6-year loss in life expectancy. Moreover, re-hospitalizations for AF or flutter and related outcomes such as heart failure and stroke were common with catheter ablation used infrequently for treatment, which warrant further actions.

Triglyceride-Glucose Index Predicts Major Adverse Cardiovascular and Cerebrovascular Events in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation

This study aimed to explore the relationship between the trajectory of the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index and the occurrence of major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).This prospective study included 1979 patients with AF, who were initially selected from the Kailuan study. Patients of AF were split into four groups according to the value of TyG index. The clinical endpoint was MACCE, including myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke. Cox proportional hazard models were employed to examine the hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) for MACCE in various trajectory groups.The mean age of all patients with AF was 67.65 ± 11.15 years, and 1752 (88.53%) were male. Over a median follow-up duration of 5.31 years, in total 227 MACCE were recorded. MACCE cumulative incidence in Quartile 4 (26.96%) was significantly higher than those in other quartiles (P = 0.023). Multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis showed that a higher TyG index (Quartile 4) was significantly and positively linked to MACCE in patients with AF (P = 0.023, HR: 2.103; 95% CI: 1.107-3.994).The evaluated TyG index is significantly associated with an increased risk of MACCE in patients with AF.

Prevalence and Impact of Concomitant Atrial Fibrillation in Patients Undergoing Percutaneous Coronary Intervention for Acute Myocardial Infarction

Background: Concomitant atrial fibrillation (AF) is associated with an adverse prognosis in patients with acute myocardial infarction (MI). However, it remains unclear whether this is due to a causal effect of AF or whether AF acts as a surrogate marker for comorbidities in this population. Furthermore, there are limited data on whether coronary artery disease distribution impacts the risk of developing AF. Methods: Consecutive patients admitted with acute MI and treated using percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) at a single centre were retrospectively identified. Associations between AF and major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (MACCEs) over a median of five years of follow-up were assessed using Cox regression, with adjustment for confounding factors performed using both multivariable modelling and a propensity-score-matched analysis. Results: AF was identified in N = 65/1000 (6.5%) of cases; these patients were significantly older (mean: 73 vs. 65 years, p < 0.001), with lower creatinine clearance (p < 0.001), and were more likely to have a history of cerebrovascular disease (p = 0.011) than those without AF. In addition, patients with AF had a greater propensity for left main stem (p = 0.001) or left circumflex artery (p = 0.004) involvement. Long-term MACCE rates were significantly higher in the AF group than in the non-AF group (50.8% vs. 34.2% at five years), yielding an unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.86 (95% CI: 1.32-2.64, p < 0.001). However, after adjustment for confounding factors, AF was no longer independently associated with MACCEs, either on multivariable (adjusted HR: 1.25, 95% CI: 0.81-1.92, p = 0.319) or propensity-score-matched (HR: 1.04, 95% CI: 0.59-1.82, p = 0.886) analyses. Conclusions: AF is observed in 6.5% of patients admitted with acute MI, and those with AF are more likely to have significant diseases involving left main or circumflex arteries. Although unadjusted MACCE rates were significantly higher in patients with AF, this effect was not found to remain significant after adjustment for comorbidities. As such, this study provided no evidence to suggest that AF is independently associated with MACCEs.

New-onset atrial fibrillation in seropositive rheumatoid arthritis: association with disease-modifying anti-rheumatic drugs treatment

OBJECTIVE

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a potentially lethal complication that leads to increased hospitalization, disability and mortality. Furthermore, the risk of cardiovascular disease is increased in RA. We evaluated whether DMARD treatment is associated with incident AF in patients with seropositive RA (SPRA).

METHODS

The South Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service database was used to identify patients newly diagnosed with SPRA between 2010 and 2020. A nested case-control analysis was performed to match AF-affected patients to unaffected controls for age, sex, follow-up duration, and index year of SPRA diagnosis at a 1:4 ratio. Adjusted conditional logistic regression was used to identify the predictive factors for AF.

RESULTS

Of the 108 085 patients with SPRA, 2,629 (2.4%) developed new-onset AF, and the proportion of females was ∼67%. In the matched population, pre-existing comorbidities of hypertension, chronic kidney disease, and heart failure were associated with increased risk of AF. Meanwhile, the use of methotrexate (MTX) decreased the risk of incident AF [adjusted odds ratio (aOR), 0.89], whereas the use of leflunomide (LEF) increased AF (aOR, 1.21). In a subgroup of patients aged ≥50 years, LEF and adalimumab increased the occurrence of AF, while MTX decreased AF in males and LEF increased this risk in females.

CONCLUSION

Although the number of subjects developing new-onset AF was small, MTX decreased and LEF increased incident AF in patients with RA. Especially, a distinct pattern of AF risk with DMARDs usage was observed according to age and sex.

Cost-effectiveness of rhythm control strategy: Ablation versus antiarrhythmic drugs for treating atrial fibrillation in Korea based on real-world data

Background

Ablation-based treatment has emerged as an alternative rhythm control strategy for symptomatic atrial fibrillation (AF). Recent studies have demonstrated the cost-effectiveness of ablation compared with medical therapy in various circumstances. We assessed the economic comparison between ablation and medical therapy based on a nationwide real-world population.

Methods and findings

For 192,345 patients with new-onset AF (age ≥ 18 years) identified between August 2015 and July 2018 from the Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service (HIRA) database, medical resource use data were collected to compare AF patients that underwent ablation (N = 2,131) and those administered antiarrhythmic drugs (N = 8,048). Subsequently, a Markov chain Monte Carlo model was built. The patients had at least one risk factor for stroke, and the base-case used a 20-year time horizon, discounting at 4.5% annually. Transition probabilities and costs were estimated using the present data, and utilities were derived from literature review. The costs were converted to US $ (2019). Sensitivity analyses were performed using probabilistic and deterministic methods. The net costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALY) for antiarrhythmic drugs and ablation treatments were $37,421 and 8.8 QALYs and $39,820 and 9.3 QALYs, respectively. Compared with antiarrhythmic drugs, incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ablation was $4,739/QALY, which is lower than the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold of $32,000/QALY.

Conclusion

In symptomatic AF patients with a stroke risk under the age of 75 years, ablation-based rhythm control is potentially a more economically attractive option compared with antiarrhythmic drug-based rhythm control in Korea.

The Impact of Cardiac Comorbidity Sequence at Baseline and Mortality Risk in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Retrospective Population-Based Cohort Study

Introduction: The presence of multiple comorbidities increases the risk of all-cause mortality, but the effects of the comorbidity sequence before the baseline date on mortality remain unexplored. This study investigated the relationship between coronary heart disease (CHD), atrial fibrillation (AF) and heart failure (HF) through their sequence of development and the effect on all-cause mortality risk in type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods: This study included patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus prescribed antidiabetic/cardiovascular medications in public hospitals of Hong Kong between 1 January 2009 and 31 December 2009, with follow-up until death or 31 December 2019. The Cox regression was used to identify comorbidity sequences predicting all-cause mortality in patients with different medication subgroups. Results: A total of 249,291 patients (age: 66.0 ± 12.4 years, 47.4% male) were included. At baseline, 7564, 10,900 and 25,589 patients had AF, HF and CHD, respectively. Over follow-up (3524 ± 1218 days), 85,870 patients died (mortality rate: 35.7 per 1000 person-years). Sulphonylurea users with CHD developing later and insulin users with CHD developing earlier in the disease course had lower mortality risks. Amongst insulin users with two of the three comorbidities, those with CHD with preceding AF (hazard ratio (HR): 3.06, 95% CI: [2.60−3.61], p < 0.001) or HF (HR: 3.84 [3.47−4.24], p < 0.001) had a higher mortality. In users of lipid-lowering agents with all three comorbidities, those with preceding AF had a higher risk of mortality (AF-CHD-HF: HR: 3.22, [2.24−4.61], p < 0.001; AF-HF-CHD: HR: 3.71, [2.66−5.16], p < 0.001). Conclusions: The sequence of comorbidity development affects the risk of all-cause mortality to varying degrees in diabetic patients on different antidiabetic/cardiovascular medications.

Atrial fibrillation is an independent risk factor for new-onset myocardial infarction: a prospective study

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) and myocardial infarction (MI) share common cardiovascular risk factors, therefore coexistence of AF and MI is very common, in addition, both AF and MI aggravate and exacerbate each other through multiple pathological processes. The aim of this study is to investigate whether AF increases the risk of new-onset MI.

METHODS

In total 171,086 participants from an industrial city in North China were selected and enrolled in this prospective cohort study, participants were divided into the AF group or the non-AF group according to their medical history. 1542 participants from the AF group were propensity-matched with 4626 participants from the non-AF group. All the participants were followed up every 2 years from June 2006 to December 2020, the median follow-up was 14.25 years and the endpoint of this study was new-onset MI. The association between AF and new-onset MI was analysed by using both univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression analysis.

RESULTS

New-onset MI was documented in 56 cases from the AF group and 98 cases from the non-AF group, respectively, the cumulative incidence of new-onset MI in the AF group (3.73%) was significantly higher than that in the non-AF group (2.23%) (p < 0.01). In a univariate analysis, AF was associated with an increased risk of new-onset MI (hazard ratio: 1.73, 95% confidence interval: 1.24-2.40), in two multivariable-adjusted analyses, AF was still associated with an increased risk of new-onset MI (hazard ratio: 1.78, 95% confidence interval, 1.28-2.47).

CONCLUSIONS

AF is an independent risk factor for new-onset MI in an industrial population of North China.

Association between epicardial adipose tissue and recurrence of atrial fibrillation after ablation: a propensity score-matched analysis

To assess the association between epicardial adipose tissue (EAT) index derived from cardiac computed tomography and atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after ablation by comparing with a propensity score matched non-recurrence AF patients. A total of 506 patients with AF recurrence and 174 patients without AF recurrence were enrolled in this retrospective study. Density and volume of total EAT surrounding the heart (Total-EAT) and EAT surrounding the left atrium (LA-EAT) were measured, propensity score matching(PSM) analyses were used to compare the outcomes of the two groups while controlling for confounders. Total-EAT density (HU) value (-81.27 ± 4.67 vs -84.05 ± 3.84, P < 0.001) and LA-EAT density (HU) value (-76.16 ± 4.11 vs -78.83 ± 3.81, P < 0.001) were significantly higher in the patients with AF recurrence than in those without recurrence. LA-EAT density (HU) value was significantly higher than Total-EAT (- 77.50 ± 4.18 vs -82.66 ± 4.49, P = 0.000). In a multiple logistic regression analysis, a higher LA-EAT density (odds ratio: 1.12; 95% CI: 1.02-1.22, p = 0.015) was significantly associated with the AF recurrence after adjusting for other risk factors. The LA-EAT density plays an important role in the AF recurrence after ablation. Assessment of LA-EAT density can improve ablation outcomes by refining patient selection.

Thirty-Day Unplanned Readmissions Following Hospitalisation for Atrial Fibrillation in Australia and New Zealand

AIMS

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is a leading cause of hospitalisations, yet little is known about 30-day readmissions following discharge despite increasing policy focus on reducing readmissions. We assessed the rate, timing, causes and predictors of 30-day unplanned readmission following an acute and elective AF hospitalisation using population-wide data.

METHODS

We studied all patients hospitalised for AF from 2010 to 2015 at all public and most private hospitals in Australia and New Zealand. The main outcome measures were unplanned readmissions within 30 days of discharge, primary diagnosis associated with these readmissions, and their predictors as modelled by logistic regression.

RESULTS

Among 301,654 patients hospitalised for AF (mean age 69.2±13.6 yrs, 55.6% female, 65.2% acute presentations), 29,750 (9.9%) experienced an unplanned readmission within 30 days with 62.6% occurring by 14 days. Unplanned readmissions occurred more frequently following an acute versus elective AF hospitalisations (12.5% vs 4.9%, p<0.001). The most common diagnoses associated with readmissions were recurrence of AF (n=9,890, 33.2%), and preventable conditions including heart failure (n=2,683, 9.0%), pneumonia (n=724, 2.4%) and acute myocardial infarction (n=510, 1.7%). A higher risk of 30-day readmission was associated with congenital cardiac/circulatory defect (OR 2.18, CI 1.44-3.30), congestive heart failure (OR 1.34, CI 1.30-1.39), and arrhythmia/conduction disorders (OR 1.25, CI 1.21-1.28).

CONCLUSION

Almost 1 in 10 AF hospitalisations resulted in unplanned readmission within 30-days, mostly for AF recurrence. Improved clinical management of AF and transitional care planning are required to reduce unplanned readmissions following AF hospitalisations.

Preoperative Atrial Fibrillation and Cardiovascular Outcomes After Noncardiac Surgery

BACKGROUND

The impact of pre-existing atrial fibrillation (AF) on outcomes after noncardiac surgery is not clear.

OBJECTIVES

We aimed to study the impact of AF on the risk of adverse outcomes after noncardiac surgery in a nationwide cohort.

METHODS

We identified Medicare beneficiaries admitted for noncardiac surgery from 2015 to 2019 and divided the study cohort into 2 groups: with and without AF. Noncardiac surgery was classified into vascular, thoracic, general, genitourinary, gynecological, orthopedics and neurosurgery, breast, head and neck, and transplant. We used propensity score matching on exact age, sex, race, urgency and type of surgery, revised cardiac risk index (RCRI) and CHA₂DS₂-VASc score, and tight caliper on other comorbidities. The study outcomes were 30-day mortality, stroke, myocardial infarction, and heart failure. We examined the incremental utility of AF in addition to RCRI to predict adverse events after noncardiac surgery.

RESULTS

The study cohort included 8,635,758 patients who underwent noncardiac surgery (16.4% with AF). Patients with AF were older, more likely to be men, and had higher prevalence of comorbidities. After propensity score matching, AF was associated with higher risk of mortality (OR: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.30-1.32), heart failure (OR: 1.31; 95% CI: 1.30-1.33), and stroke (OR: 1.40; 95% CI: 1.37-1.43) and lower risk of myocardial infarction (OR: 0.81; 95% CI: 0.79-0.82). Results were consistent in subgroup analysis by sex, race, type of surgery, and all strata of RCRI and CHA₂DS₂-VASc score. AF improved the discriminative ability of RCRI (C-statistic 0.73 to 0.76).

CONCLUSION

Pre-existing AF is independently associated with postoperative adverse outcomes after NCS.

DNA Methylation-Based Prediction of Post-operative Atrial Fibrillation

Background

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia and post-operative atrial fibrillation (POAF) is a major healthcare burden, contributing to an increased risk of stroke, kidney failure, heart attack and death. Genetic studies have identified associations with AF, but no molecular diagnostic exists to predict POAF based on pre-operative measurements. Such a tool would be of great value for perioperative planning to improve patient care and reduce healthcare costs. In this pilot study of epigenetic precision medicine in the perioperative period, we carried out bisulfite sequencing to measure DNA methylation status in blood collected from patients prior to cardiac surgery to identify biosignatures of POAF.

Methods

We enrolled 221 patients undergoing cardiac surgery in this prospective observational study. DNA methylation measurements were obtained from blood samples drawn from awake patients prior to surgery. After controlling for clinical and methylation covariates, we analyzed DNA methylation loci in the discovery cohort of 110 patients for association with POAF. We also constructed predictive models for POAF using clinical and DNA methylation data. We subsequently performed targeted analyses of a separate cohort of 101 cardiac surgical patients to measure the methylation status solely of significant methylation loci in the discovery cohort.

Results

A total of 47 patients in the discovery cohort (42.7%) and 43 patients in the validation cohort (42.6%) developed POAF. We identified 12 CpGs that were statistically significant in the discovery cohort after correcting for multiple hypothesis testing. Of these sites, 6 were amenable to targeted bisulfite sequencing and chr16:24640902 was statistically significant in the validation cohort. In addition, the methylation POAF prediction model had an AUC of 0.79 in the validation cohort.

Conclusions

We have identified DNA methylation biomarkers that can predict future occurrence of POAF associated with cardiac surgery. This research demonstrates the use of precision medicine to develop models combining epigenomic and clinical data to predict disease.

The associations of hepatic steatosis and fibrosis using fatty liver index and BARD score with cardiovascular outcomes and mortality in patients with new-onset type 2 diabetes: a nationwide cohort study

Background

Although both type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) are associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD), evidence is lacking as to whether the presence of NAFLD confers an additional risk of CVD in patients with T2DM. We investigated the associations between hepatic steatosis and/or fibrosis and risk of myocardial infarction (MI), stroke, heart failure (HF), and mortality in patients with new-onset T2DM.

Methods

Using the Korean National Health Insurance dataset, we included 139,633 patients diagnosed with new-onset T2DM who underwent a national health screening from January 2009 to December 2012. Hepatic steatosis and advanced hepatic fibrosis were determined using cutoff values for fatty liver index (FLI) and BARD score. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models.

Results

During the median follow-up of 7.7 years, there were 3,079 (2.2%) cases of MI, 4,238 (3.0%) cases of ischemic stroke, 4,303 (3.1%) cases of HF, and 8,465 (6.1%) all-cause deaths. Hepatic steatosis defined as FLI ≥ 60 was associated with increased risk for MI (HR [95% CI], 1.28 [1.14–1.44]), stroke (1.41 [1.25–1.56]), HF (1.17 [1.07–1.26]), and mortality (1.41 [1.32–1.51]) after adjusting for well-known risk factors. Compared to the group without steatosis, the group with steatosis and without fibrosis (BARD < 2) and the group with both steatosis and fibrosis (BARD ≥ 2) showed gradual increased risk for MI, stroke, HF, and mortality (all p for trends < 0.001).

Conclusion

Hepatic steatosis and/or advanced fibrosis as assessed by FLI or BARD score were significantly associated with risk of CVD and mortality in new-onset T2DM.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12933-022-01483-y.

Development and Validation of a Machine Learning-Based Radiomics Model on Cardiac Computed Tomography of Epicardial Adipose Tissue in Predicting Characteristics and Recurrence of Atrial Fibrillation

Purpose

This study aimed to evaluate the feasibility of differentiating the atrial fibrillation (AF) subtype and preliminary explore the prognostic value of AF recurrence after ablation using radiomics models based on epicardial adipose tissue around the left atrium (LA-EAT) of cardiac CT images.

Method

The cardiac CT images of 314 patients were collected wherein 251 and 63 cases were randomly enrolled in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. Mutual information and the random forest algorithm were used to screen for the radiomic features and construct the radiomics signature. Radiomics models reflecting the features of LA-EAT were built to differentiate the AF subtype, and the multivariable logistic regression model was adopted to integrate the radiomics signature and volume information. The same methodology and algorithm were applied to the radiomic features to explore the ability for predicting AF recurrence.

Results

The predictive model constructed by integrating the radiomic features and volume information using a radiomics nomogram showed the best ability in differentiating AF subtype in the training [AUC, 0.915; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.880–0.951] and validation (AUC, 0.853; 95% CI, 0.755–0.951) cohorts. The radiomic features have shown convincible predictive ability of AF recurrence in both training (AUC, 0.808; 95% CI, 0.750–0.866) and validation (AUC, 0.793; 95% CI, 0.654–0.931) cohorts.

Conclusions

The LA-EAT radiomic signatures are a promising tool in the differentiation of AF subtype and prediction of AF recurrence, which may have clinical implications in the early diagnosis of AF subtype and disease management.

Association of proteinuria and hypertension with incident atrial fibrillation in an elderly population: nationwide data from a community-based elderly cohort

OBJECTIVE

The excess risk of atrial fibrillation in relation to the presence of proteinuria associated with hypertension has not been well elucidated. We aimed to determine the effect of hypertension and/or proteinuria on the incidence of atrial fibrillation. Second, we evaluated whether the associations with temporal changes in proteinuria status on the incidence of atrial fibrillation.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 85 434 participants with hypertension and 125 912 participants without hypertension with age at least 60 years from the Korea National Health Insurance Service-Senior cohort were included. Amongst controls (participants without proteinuria and hypertension), hypertension only, proteinuria only, and hypertension with proteinuria groups, the adjusted incidences of atrial fibrillation were 0.51, 0.69. 0.78 and 0.99 per 100 person-years, respectively after inverse probability of treatment weighting. Compared with controls, the weighted risks of atrial fibrillation in the hypertension only, proteinuria only and hypertension with proteinuria groups were increased by 37% (hazard ratio 1.37, 95% confidence interval, CI 1.30-1.44, P = 0.001), 55% (hazard ratio 1.55, 95% CI 1.28-1.88, P < 0.001), and 98% (hazard ratio 1.98, 95% CI 1.62-2.43, P < 0.001), respectively. Populations who had proteinuria in the first examination had an increased risk of atrial fibrillation even in the group whereby the proteinuria was resolved on the second examination (hazard ratio 1.36, 95% CI 1.12-2.31, P < 0.001). The presence of proteinuria in first and second analysis had the highest risk of incident atrial fibrillation (hazard ratio 1.61, 95% CI 1.12-2.31).

CONCLUSION

In conclusion, hypertension and/or proteinuria were associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation, with the greatest risks when both are present. Proteinuria could be a useful factor for predicting atrial fibrillation development.

Comparison of risk profiles for new-onset atrial fibrillation between patients aged <60 and ≥60 years

BACKGROUND

Atrial fibrillation (AF) has a heterogeneous pathophysiology according to individual patient characteristics. This study aimed to identify the effects of widely known risk factors on AF incidence according to age and to elucidate the clinical implications of these effects.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We analyzed data from 501,668 subjects (≥18years old) without AF and valvular heart disease from the Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Sample Cohort. The total population was divided into two groups according to age, <60years and ≥60years. AF occurred in 0.7% of the overall population (3,416 of 501,668) during the follow-up period (mean 47.6 months). In Cox regression analysis, age, male sex, previous ischemic stroke, heart failure, and hypertension were related to increased risk of new-onset AF in both age groups. Especially in the <60years age group, risk of new-onset AF was increased by relatively modifiable risk factors: obesity (body mass index ≥25kg/m2; hazard ratio[HR] 1.37 [1.22-1.55], p<0.001, interaction p<0.001), and hypertension (HR 1.93[1.69-2.22], p<0.001, interaction p<0.001). Although interactions were not significant, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR 1.41[1.24-1.60], p<0.001) and chronic kidney disease (HR 1.28[1.15-1.41], p<0.001) showed increased trends of the risk of new-onset AF in the ≥60years age group.

CONCLUSION

The risk profile for new-onset AF was somewhat different between the <60years and the ≥60years age groups. Compared to the ≥60years group, relatively modifiable risk factors (such as obesity and hypertension) had a greater impact on AF incidence in the <60years age group. Different management strategies to prevent AF development according to age may be needed.

Association of proteinuria and incident atrial fibrillation in patients with diabetes mellitus: a population-based senior cohort study

Diabetes mellitus (DM) is considered an independent risk factor for atrial fibrillation (AF). The excess risk in relation to the presence of proteinuria has not been well elucidated. Our aim was to determine the association between the incidence of AF and proteinuria in diabetic population. A total of 240,499 individuals aged ≥ 60 years from the Korea National Health Insurance Service-Senior cohort from 2004 to 2014 were included. 4.2% of individuals with DM and 3.7% of controls were diagnosed with AF during a median follow-up period of 7.2 years. Amongst controls (participants without proteinuria and DM), DM only, proteinuria only, and DM with proteinuria groups, the crude incidences of AF were 0.58, 0.70, 0.96, 1.24 per 100 person-years respectively. Compared with controls, the weighted risk of AF was increased by 11% (hazard ratio = 1.11, 95% confidence interval = 1.02-1.20, P = .001), 48% (hazard ratio = 1.48, 95% confidence interval = 1.30-1.69, P < .001), and 66% (hazard ratio = 1.66, 95% confidence interval = 1.26-2.18, P < .001) in the DM only, proteinuria only, and DM with proteinuria groups, respectively (P for trend < .001). Degree of proteinuria in diabetic patients was associated with a significantly higher rate of incident AF in dose dependent manner. Thus, assessing proteinuria by a simple urine dipstick test could provide a useful adjunct to risk assessment for AF in elderly population with DM.

Impact of Atrial Fibrillation on Hospitalization Outcomes of Heart Failure in Patients ≥ 60 Years with Implantable Cardioverter Defibrillator

The impact of atrial fibrillation (AF) on the hospitalization outcomes in patients ≥ 60 years of age with implantable cardioverter defibrillators (ICD) is not well studied. We queried the National Inpatient Sample database for all patients aged ≥ 60 who had a history of ICD placement, and were admitted with a primary diagnosis of heart failure (HF) during the years 2016-2017. Patients were stratified into 2 groups based on their history of AF. The primary outcome of the study was all-cause in-hospital mortality. Secondary outcomes included cardiogenic shock, myocardial infarction (MI), ventricular fibrillation (VF), stroke and acute kidney injury (AKI). The association between different age strata and outcomes was investigated. The hospitalization outcomes were modeled using logistic regression. A total of 178,045 patients were included, of whom 56.2% had AF. AF correlated with increased mortality (A-OR 1.22 (95% CI: 1.06-1.4), p=0.005), cardiogenic shock (A-OR 1.21 (95%CI: 1.08-1.36), p<0.001), AKI (A-OR 1.12 (95%CI: 1.06-1.17), p<0.001 and lower risk for MI (A-OR 0.79 (95% CI: 0.68-0.9), p<0.001. There was no correlation between AF and risk for VF or stroke. A significant correlation between AF and higher risk for mortality, cardiogenic shock and AKI was demonstrated in ages ≤ 75, ≤ 75, and ≤ 80 years, respectively. In contrast, a significant correlation between AF and lower risk for MI is only demonstrated at age > 70 years. We conclude that AF is an independent predictor for increased all-cause in-hospital mortality and cardiogenic shock. Such risk is influenced by age.

Changes in Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Cardiovascular Events in the Elderly Population

Background

This study examines changes in the ideal cardiovascular health (CVH) status and whether these changes are associated with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and mortality in the elderly Asian population.

Methods and Results

In the Korea National Health Insurance Service–Senior cohort aged ≥60 years, 208 673 participants without prior CVD, including 109 431 who showed changes in CVH status, were assessed. The association of the changes in cardiovascular risk factors with incident CVD was assessed from 2004 to 2014 in the elderly (aged 60–74 years) and very elderly (≥75 years) groups. During the follow‐up period (7.1 years for CVD and 7.2 years for mortality), 19 429 incident CVD events and 24 225 deaths occurred. In both the elderly and very elderly participants, higher CVH status resulted in a lower risk of CVD and mortality. In the very elderly participants, compared with consistently low CVH, consistently high CVH (subhazard ratio, 0.41; 95% CI, 0.23–0.73) was associated with a lower risk of CVD. This trend was consistently observed in the elderly population. In the very elderly participants, total cholesterol level was not informative enough for the prediction of CVD events. In both the elderly and very elderly groups, body mass index and total cholesterol were not informative enough for the prediction of all‐cause mortality.

Conclusions

In both the elderly and very elderly Asian populations without CVD, a consistent relationship was observed between the improvement of a composite metric of CVH and the reduced risk of CVD. Body mass index and total cholesterol were not informative enough for the prediction of all‐cause mortality in both the elderly and very elderly groups.

What Is the Ideal Blood Pressure Threshold for the Prevention of Atrial Fibrillation in Elderly General Population?

Intensive blood pressure (BP) lowering in patients with hypertension at increased risk of cardiovascular disease has been associated with a lowered risk of incident atrial fibrillation (AF). It is uncertain whether maintaining the optimal BP levels can prevent AF in the general elderly population. We included 115,866 participants without AF in the Korea National Health Insurance Service-Senior (≥60 years) cohort from 2002 to 2013. We compared the influence of BP on the occurrence of new-onset AF between octogenarians (≥80 years) and non-octogenarians (<80 years) subjects. With up to 6.7 ± 1.7 years of follow-up, 4393 incident AF cases occurred. After multivariable adjustment for potentially confounding clinical covariates, the risk of AF in non-octogenarians was significantly higher in subjects with BP levels of <120/<80 and ≥140/90 mm Hg, with hazard ratios of 1.15 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.03-1.28; p < 0.001) and 1.14 (95% CI, 1.04-1.26; p < 0.001), compared to the optimal BP levels (120-129/<80 mm Hg). In octogenarians, the optimal BP range was 130-139/80-89 mm Hg, higher than in non-octogenarians. A U-shaped relationship for the development of incident AF was evident in non-octogenarians, and BP levels of 120-129/<80 mm Hg were associated the lowest risk of incident AF. Compared to non-octogenarians, the lowest risk of AF was associated with higher BP levels of 130-139/80-89 mm Hg amongst octogenarians.

Effect of hypertension duration and blood pressure level on ischaemic stroke risk in atrial fibrillation: nationwide data covering the entire Korean population

AIMS

There are a paucity of data on the association of duration of hypertension and blood pressure (BP) level with risk of ischaemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF). Our objective was to investigate the association between duration of hypertension and secondly, BP levels with risk of ischaemic stroke among patients with AF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 246 459 oral anticoagulant-naïve non-valvular AF patients were enrolled from Korea National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) database (2005-2015). The risk of ischaemic stroke according to the duration of hypertension and systolic BP (SBP) levels were assessed. One-year increase of hypertension duration continuously increased the adjusted risk of ischaemic stroke (95% confidence interval 1.07-1.09) until 7 years, and reached a plateau with adjusted hazard ratio of 1.6. Risk of ischaemic stroke increased linearly with the increase of hypertension duration in patients younger than 65 years of age, whereas the risk reached a plateau in patients aged 65 years or older. In all baseline and pre-AF average SBP subgroups, longer duration of hypertension before AF was associated with higher ischaemic stroke risk than shorter duration of hypertension (all P-values for trends <0.01). However, the effect of long-term hypertension was not observed in patients with strictly well-controlled pre-AF average SBP of less than 120 mmHg.

CONCLUSION

The increase of hypertension duration was associated with the increased risk of ischaemic stroke. However, this long-term effect of hypertension duration can be attenuated by long-term strict SBP control throughout the entire duration of hypertension.

Cost-Effectiveness of Rate- and Rhythm-Control Drugs for Treating Atrial Fibrillation in Korea

PURPOSE

Although the economic and mortality burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) is substantial, it remains unclear which treatment strategies for rate and rhythm control are most cost-effective. Consequently, economic factors can play an adjunctive role in guiding treatment selection.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We built a Markov chain Monte Carlo model using the Korean Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service database. Drugs for rate control and rhythm control in AF were analyzed. Cost-effective therapies were selected using a cost-effectiveness ratio, calculated by net cost and quality-adjusted life years (QALY).

RESULTS

In the National Health Insurance Service data, 268149 patients with prevalent AF (age ≥18 years) were identified between January 1, 2013 and December 31, 2015. Among them, 212459 and 55690 patients were taking drugs for rate and rhythm control, respectively. Atenolol cost $714/QALY. Among the rate-control medications, the cost of propranolol was lowest at $487/QALY, while that of carvedilol was highest at $1363/QALY. Among the rhythm-control medications, the cost of pilsicainide was lowest at $638/QALY, while that of amiodarone was highest at $986/QALY. Flecainide and propafenone cost $834 and $830/QALY, respectively. The cost-effectiveness threshold of all drugs was lower than $30000/QALY. Compared with atenolol, the rate-control drugs propranolol, betaxolol, bevantolol, bisoprolol, diltiazem, and verapamil, as well as the rhythm-control drugs sotalol, pilsicainide, flecainide, propafenone, and dronedarone, showed better incremental cost-effectiveness ratios.

CONCLUSION

Propranolol and pilsicainide appear to be cost-effective in patients with AF in Korea assuming that drug usage or compliance is the same.

Physical Activity and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: A Nationwide Cohort Study in General Population

Although exercise prevents cardiovascular disease and mortality, vigorous exercise and endurance athletics can cause atrial fibrillation (AF). However, no large cohort study has assessed the relationship between physical activity and AF in the general population. We assessed the effect of physical activity at different energy expenditures on the incidence of AF. We studied 501,690 individuals without pre-existing AF (mean age, 47.6 ± 14.3 years; 250,664 women [50.0%]) included in the Korean National Health Insurance Service database. The physical activity level was assessed using a standardized self-reported questionnaire at baseline. During a median follow-up of 4 years, 3,443 participants (1,432 women [41.6%]) developed AF. The overall incidence of AF at follow-up was 1.79 per 1,000 person-years. The subjects who met the recommended physical activity level (500–1,000 metabolic equivalent task [MET] minutes/week) had a 12% decreased AF risk (adjusted hazard ratio [HR]: 0.88, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.80–0.97), but not the insufficiently (1–500 MET-minutes/week; HR: 0.94, 95% CI: 0.86–1.03) and highly active subjects (≥1,000 MET-minutes/week; HR: 0.93, 95% CI: 0.85–1.03). The recommended minimum key target range of physical activity level was associated with the maximum benefit for reduced AF risk in the general population. The dose-response relationship between physical activity level and AF risk showed a U-shaped pattern. Although exceeding the key target range attenuated this benefit, it did not increase the AF risk beyond that during inactivity.

Age Threshold for Ischemic Stroke Risk in Atrial Fibrillation

Background and Purpose- Although older age is one of the most important risk factor for stroke in atrial fibrillation (AF), the appropriate age threshold (eg, CHA₂DS₂-VASc score [congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years (doubled), diabetes mellitus, prior stroke or transient ischemic attack (doubled), vascular disease, age 65-74 years, female], 1 point for age 65-74 years, 2 points for age ≥75 years) for increased risk is controversial because actual age thresholds may differ between countries and ethnic groups. We investigated the age threshold for ischemic stroke risk among Asian AF patients. Methods- Using National Health Insurance Service database, including 426 650 oral anticoagulant-naive nonvalvular AF patients from 2005 to 2015, with ≤2 nongender-related CHA₂DS₂-VASc risk scores (CHA₂DS₂-VASc score 0-2 in males, 1-3 in females), we assessed the risk of ischemic stroke in AF patients according to the age. Results- Patients who fulfill the age risk criterion (age, 65-74 years) without other risk factors showed a significantly higher risk of stroke (4.76 per 100 person-years [100PY]; adjusted hazard ratio, 2.25; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.17-2.36) compared with patients with 1 risk score other than age (1.87/100PY). Patients aged 55 to 59 years with no risk factors showed similar risk of stroke (1.94/100PY; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.95; 95% confidence interval, 0.90-1.00) than patients with 1 risk score (2.06/100PY). Patients aged 65 to 69 years and no other risk factors had similar stroke risk (4.08/100PY; adjusted hazard ratio, 0.93; 95% confidence interval, 0.90-0.97) than patients with 2 nongender-related risk scores (4.42/100PY). Conclusions- Older age is the most important predictor of ischemic stroke in AF, particularly for patients with low to intermediate risk of stroke. These nationwide data suggest lowering the current age threshold (age, ≥65 years) in the CHA₂DS₂-VASc score to age ≥55 years might be appropriate among Asian patients with AF.

Long-Term Impact of Newly Diagnosed Atrial Fibrillation During Critical Care: A South Korean Nationwide Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

The long-term risks of thromboembolism and mortality are unknown in patients who survived following atrial fibrillation (AF) newly diagnosed during critical care.

METHODS

Using the Korean National Health Insurance Service database, we identified 30,869 adults who survived for > 6 months following AF newly diagnosed during critical care (ICU-AF), 269,751 control subjects with non-ICU AF (AF-control), and 439,868 control subjects without AF (No-AF) from 2005 to 2013. We performed propensity score matching and compared the risks of stroke/systemic embolism and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for long-term stroke/systemic embolism in the patients with ICU-AF were 0.93 (95% CI, 0.88-0.98) compared with the AF-control group and 1.50 (95% CI, 1.42-1.60) compared with the No-AF group. The adjusted HRs of the ICU-AF group for long-term mortality were 1.73 (95% CI, 1.70-1.83) and 3.20 (95% CI, 3.08-3.33) compared with the AF-control and No-AF groups, respectively. The risks of stroke/systemic embolism and mortality were significantly higher in the ICU-AF group than in the No-AF group after excluding patients with AF recurrence (adjusted HR, 1.08; 95% CI, 1.01-1.17), regardless of the causes of critical care and cardiovascular or noncardiovascular surgery.

CONCLUSIONS

The patients who survived following AF newly diagnosed during critical care remained at a higher risk of long-term stroke/systemic embolism and mortality than the patients without AF regardless of AF recurrence and the causes of critical care. Close follow-up and continuous anticoagulation might be needed for these patients.

Cost-Effectiveness of Rivaroxaban Compared to Warfarin for Stroke Prevention in Atrial Fibrillation

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Rivaroxaban is noninferior to warfarin for preventing stroke or systemic embolism in patients with high-risk atrial fibrillation (AF) and is associated with a lower rate of intracranial hemorrhage (ICH). We assessed the cost-effectiveness of rivaroxaban compared to adjusted-dose warfarin for the prevention of stroke in patients with nonvalvular AF.

METHODS

We built a Markov model using the Korean Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service database. The base-case analysis assumed a cohort of patients with prevalent AF who were aged 18 years or older without contraindications to anticoagulation.

RESULTS

Number of patients with CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores 0, 1 and ≥2 were 56 (0.2%), 1,944 (6.3%) and 28,650 (93.5%), respectively. In patients with CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores ≥2, the incidence rate of ischemic stroke was 3.11% and 3.76% in warfarin and rivaroxaban groups, respectively. The incidence rates of ICH were 0.42% and 0.15%, and those of gastrointestinal bleeding were 0.32% and 0.15% in warfarin and rivaroxaban, respectively. Patients with AF treated with rivaroxaban lived an average of 11.8 quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) at a lifetime treatment cost of $20,886. Those receiving warfarin lived an average of 11.4 QALYs and incurred costs of $17,151. Patients with rivaroxaban gained an additional 0.4 QALYs over a lifetime with an additional cost of $3,735, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $9,707 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients who had been treated with rivaroxaban may be a cost-effective alternative to warfarin for stroke prevention in Korean patients with AF.

Influence of noise exposure on cardiocerebrovascular disease in Korea

Environmental noise pollution is an important social problem. Noise is known to have an adverse effect on human emotions and bodies. However, the methodology of previous studies did not consider selection bias in eliminating participants during the screening process. Therefore, for this study, we propose a framework that combines propensity score matching with a generalized additive model to reduce that sampling problem. Within this framework, we use health data from the National Health Insurance Service and noise data from the National Noise Information System in Korea. Using the proposed framework and data set, we analyze the effects of noise on cardiocerebrovascular disease. Our results show that, when daytime noise increases by 1 A-weighted decibel (dB(A)), cerebrovascular disease increases by 0.66%, hypertension increases by 0.17%, and heart disease increases by 0.38%. Moreover, we conducted a scenario analysis to investigate the effects of noise reduction policies. When noise levels are reduced to meet regulatory targets, cerebrovascular diseases decrease by 2077 per million people, high blood pressure decreases by 5705 per million people, and heart disease decreases by 1151 per million people. Our results thus provide information about noise exposure-response functions in Korea that could be used to establish noise reduction policies.

Risk Factor Management for Atrial Fibrillation

Atrial fibrillation (AF) is the most common sustained cardiac arrhythmia in the general population. Many cardiovascular diseases and concomitant conditions increase the risk of the development of AF, recurrent AF, and AF-associated complications. Knowledge of these factors and their management is hence important for the optimal management of patients with AF. Recent studies have suggested that lowering the blood pressure threshold can improve the patients' outcome. Moreover, adverse events associated with a longer duration of hypertension can be prevented through strict blood pressure control. Pre-hypertension, impaired fasting glucose, abdominal obesity, weight fluctuation, and exposure to air pollution are related to the development of AF. Finally, female sex is not a risk factor of stroke, and the age threshold for stroke prevention should be lowered in Asian populations. The management of diseases related to AF should be provided continuously, whereas lifestyle factors should be monitored in an integrated manner.

Antithrombotic Medication and the Risk of Vitreous Hemorrhage in Atrial Fibrillation: Korean National Health Insurance Service National Cohort

PURPOSE

Antithrombotic therapy could be related with nuisance bleeding. This study investigated whether vitreous hemorrhage (VH) is associated with specific types of antithrombotic medication in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

In the Korean National Health Insurance Service National Sample Cohort, we identified 9352 antiplatelet/anticoagulant-treated AF patients. The occurrence of VH was compared between warfarin (n=1493) and a propensity score (PS)-matched antiplatelet group (n=1493) and between warfarin (n=1493) and a PS-matched warfarin+antiplatelet group (n=1493).

RESULTS

The outcomes of VH were lower in the warfarin than in the matched antiplatelet (1.45 vs. 3.72 events/1000 patient-years) and matched warfarin+antiplatelet groups (1.45 vs. 6.87 events/1000 patient-years). Compared with warfarin, the risk of VH increased with antiplatelet [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 3.90; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-12.4, p=0.022] and warfarin+antiplatelet agents (aHR 4.39, 95% CI 1.74-11.2, p=0.002). Compared with warfarin only, warfarin+antiplatelet agents increased the risk of VH in patients ≥65 years, regardless of gender and hypertension. The risk of VH was significantly higher with dual antiplatelet therapy (aHR: 5.02, 95% CI: 1.56-16.2, p=0.007) or in dual (aHR: 5.02, 95% CI: 1.74-14.5, p=0.003) or triple therapy using warfarin and antiplatelet agents than with warfarin monotherapy (aHR: 6.12, 95% CI: 1.76-21.3, p=0.004).

CONCLUSION

Dual antiplatelet or triple therapy increased the risk of VH significantly, compared to warfarin monotherapy. Considering the low efficacy of preventing ischemic stroke and high risk of bleeding, dual or triple therapy using warfarin and antiplatelet agents should be avoided to prevent VH in AF patients.

A Simple Clinical Risk Score (C2HEST) for Predicting Incident Atrial Fibrillation in Asian Subjects: Derivation in 471,446 Chinese Subjects, With Internal Validation and External Application in 451,199 Korean Subjects

BACKGROUND

The incidence of atrial fibrillation (AF) is increasing, conferring a major health-care issue in Asia. No risk score for predicting incident AF has been specifically developed in Asian subjects. Our aim was to investigate risk factors for incident AF in Asian subjects and to combine them into a simple clinical risk score.

METHODS

Risk factors for incident AF were analyzed in 471,446 subjects from the Chinese Yunnan Insurance Database (internal derivation cohort) and then combined into a simple clinical risk score. External application of the new score was performed in 451,199 subjects from the Korean National Health Insurance Service (external cohort).

RESULTS

In the internal cohort, structural heart disease (SHD), heart failure (HF), age ≥ 75 years, coronary artery disease (CAD), hyperthyroidism, COPD, and hypertension were associated with incident AF. Given the low prevalence and the strong association of SHD with incident AF (hazard ratio, 26.07; 95% CI, 18.22-37.30; P < .001), these patients should be independently considered as high risk for AF and were excluded from the analysis. The remaining predictors were combined into the new simple C₂HEST score: C₂: CAD/COPD (1 point each); H: hypertension (1 point); E: elderly (age ≥ 75 years, 2 points); S: systolic HF (2 points); and T: thyroid disease (hyperthyroidism, 1 point). The C₂HEST score showed good discrimination with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73-0.77) and had good calibration (P = .774). The score was internally validated by bootstrap sampling procedure, giving an AUC of 0.75 (95% CI, 0.73-0.77). External application gave an AUC of 0.65 (95% CI, 0.65-0.66). The C₂HEST score was superior to CHADS₂ and CHA₂DS₂-VASc scores in both cohorts in predicting incident AF.

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed and validated the C₂HEST score as a simple clinical tool to assess the individual risk of developing AF in the Asian population without SHD.

Impact of Renal Function on Outcomes With Edoxaban in Real-World Patients With Atrial Fibrillation

Background and Purpose—

Edoxaban is a direct oral factor Xa inhibitor with proven efficacy and safety among patients with atrial fibrillation. Concerns have been raised about an excess of stroke among patients with creatinine clearance (CrCl) >95 mg/mL treated with edoxaban. We assessed the real-world effectiveness and safety of edoxaban in atrial fibrillation patients in relation to CrCl.

Methods—

In the Korean National Health Insurance Service data during the period from January to December 2016, we identified 9537 edoxaban-treated patients. Effectiveness and safety outcomes were compared between high-dose edoxaban regimen (HDER, 60 mg daily, n=2840) and a propensity score–matched warfarin group (n=2840) and between low-dose edoxaban regimen (LDER, 30 mg daily, n=3016) and matched warfarin group (n=3016).

Results—

The median follow-up period was 5.0 months (interquartile range, 2–7 months). The mean age was 68 years, and 63% were men in HDER group, and the mean age was 73 years, and 52% were men in LDER group. Compared with warfarin, both HDER and LDER significantly decreased the risk for ischemic stroke or systemic embolism (S/SE; HDER: adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.44; 95% CI, 0.31–0.64; LDER: aHR, 0.57; 95% CI, 0.42–0.78), major bleeding (HDER: aHR, 0.40; 95% CI, 0.26–0.61; LDER: aHR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.43–0.85), and mortality (HDER: aHR, 0.34; 95% CI, 0.22–0.53; LDER: aHR, 0.55; 95% CI, 0.41–0.73). In patients with CrCl >95 mL/min, the incidence of S/SE was higher with LDER than warfarin and comparable between HDER and warfarin group. There was lower effectiveness for the prevention of S/SE with LDER compared with warfarin at higher CrCl levels ( P for interaction=0.023).

Conclusions—

In real-world practice, both doses of edoxaban were associated with reduced risks for S/SE, major bleeding, and mortality compared with warfarin. LDER had lower effectiveness for the prevention of S/SE compared with warfarin at higher levels of CrCl (>95 mL/min).

Effect of Atrial Fibrillation on the Incidence and Outcome of Osteoporotic Fracture - A Nationwide Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Both atrial fibrillation (AF) and osteoporosis are common in older adults. The purpose of this study was to investigate whether comorbid AF in patients with osteoporosis is associated with fracture incidence, or death after fracture.

METHODS AND RESULTS

From the National Health Insurance Service database of Korea, we selected 31,778 patients with osteoporosis. During a median follow-up of 48 months, the incidence of bone fractures was higher in AF patients than in non-AF patients (3.20 vs. 2.18 per 100 person-years), respectively. In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, AF was associated with fracture independently of other risk factors with an adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of 1.21 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.41; P=0.031). The mortality rate after fracture was significantly higher in AF patients than it was in non-AF patients (adjusted HR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.35-3.27; P=0.016). After propensity score-matching, AF was consistently associated with a higher risk of osteoporotic fracture and subsequent death after fracture. In AF patients, older age, female sex, being underweight (body mass index <18.5 kg/m2), decreased physical activity (exercise <3 times/week), history of stroke or transient ischemic attack, thiazide use, sedative use, and higher CHADS2(≥2 points) or CHA2DS2-VASc (≥2 points) scores were associated with the incidence of fractures.

CONCLUSIONS

Comorbid AF in patients with osteoporosis was associated with an increased risk of bone fracture and death after fracture.

Variations of Prevalence and Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation and Oral Anticoagulation Rate According to Different Analysis Approaches

The reported incidence and prevalence of atrial fibrillation (AF) has been inconsistent across published studies. Using the National Health Insurance Service database of Korea, the prevalence and incidence of AF, and oral anticoagulation (OAC) use of AF patients were explored according to three different approaches; ‘formal approach’, considering individual AF diagnosis and mortality; ‘limited diagnosis approach’, using upper 5 main diagnosis; and ‘medical use approach’, using the number of medical use AF population by year without considering individual AF history and mortality. The AF prevalence progressively increased by 2.46-fold from 0.50% in 2004 to 1.54% in 2015 when using a ‘formal approach’ (p for trend <0.001). The overall prevalence was 1.09% and 0.97% when using a ‘formal approach’ and ‘limited diagnosis approaches’, respectively. Overall prevalence decreased to 0.52% with a ‘medical use approach’. The trend of annual AF incidence was stable when using a ‘formal approach’, but increased by 15% when using a ‘medical use approach’. OAC rate in 2015 was 2.1 times higher when using a ‘medical use approach’ compared to using a ‘formal approach’ (40.3% vs. 19.1%, p < 0.001). Given the wide variability in prevalence and incidence figures with different analysis approaches, careful attention to the analysis methodology is needed.

Comparison of the 2MACE and TIMI-AF Scores for Composite Clinical Outcomes in Anticoagulated Atrial Fibrillation Patients

BACKGROUND

Two risk scores have been developed to predict composite outcomes in atrial fibrillation (AF): the 2MACE and TIMI-AF scores. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive ability of these scores in 2 separate warfarin-treated cohorts (one 'real world', one clinical trial) of AF patients.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The 2MACE and TIMI-AF scores were calculated in the 'real-world' ATHERO-AF cohort (n=907), and in the randomized controlled AMADEUS trial (n=2,265). Endpoints were major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), net clinical outcomes (NCO) and a combination of them, namely "clinically relevant events" (CREs). ROC curves showed similar predictive ability for MACE for 2MACE and TIMI-AF, in both the ATHERO-AF (0.698 vs. 0.688, respectively P=0.783) and AMADEUS (0.657 vs. 0.569, respectively P=0.057) cohorts. Similarly, the TIMI-AF showed a comparable c-index with 2MACE for NCOs in the ATHERO-AF (0.676 vs. 0.667, P=0.737), and AMADEUS (0.666 vs. 0.663, P=0.859) cohorts. No differences were found between the 2 scores for the prediction of CREs (0.675 vs. 0.684, P=0.740 in ATHERO-AF and 0.669 vs. 0.667, P=0.889 in AMADEUS for 2MACE and TIMI-AF, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

This study showed that the 2MACE and TIMI-AF scores had modest but significant predictive ability for composite outcomes in AF. The clinical usefulness of both scores was similar, but the 2MACE score may be simpler and easy to use.

Increasing trends in hospital care burden of atrial fibrillation in Korea, 2006 through 2015

OBJECTIVE

Temporal changes in the healthcare burden of atrial fibrillation (AF) are less well known in rapidly ageing Asian countries. We examined trends in hospitalisations, costs, treatment patterns and outcomes related to AF in Korea.

METHODS

Using the National Health Insurance Service (NHIS) database involving the entire adult Korean population (n=41 701 269 in 2015), we analysed a nationwide AF cohort representing 931 138 patients with AF. We studied all hospitalisations due to AF from 2006 to 2015.

RESULTS

Overall, hospitalisations for AF increased by 420% from 767 to 3986 per 1 million Korean population from 2006 to 2015. Most admissions occurred in patients aged ≥70 years, and the most frequent coexisting conditions were hypertension, heart failure and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Hospitalisations mainly due to major bleeding and AF control increased, whereas hospitalisations mainly due to ischaemic stroke and myocardial infarction decreased. The total cost of care increased even after adjustment for inflation from €68.4 million in 2006 to €388.4 million in 2015, equivalent to 0.78% of the Korean NHIS total expenditure. Overall in-hospital mortality decreased from 7.5% in 2006 to 4.3% in 2015. The in-hospital mortality was highest in patients ≥80 years of age (7.7%) and in patients with chronic kidney disease (7.4%).

CONCLUSIONS

AF hospitalisations have increased exponentially over the past 10 years in Korea, in association with an increase in comorbid chronic diseases. Mortality associated with AF hospitalisations decreased during the last decade, but hospitalisation costs have markedly increased.