Resilience of Central Pacific reefs subject to frequent heat stress and human disturbance

The Thermal Stress History of South Atlantic Reefs Reveals Increasing Intensity, Duration, Frequency, and Likely Undocumented Bleaching Episodes

The primary consequence of global warming for reefs is coral bleaching, often leading to extensive coral mortality. Although bleaching is well-documented globally, the thermal stress and bleaching experienced by the unique South Atlantic reefs remain largely unknown due to insufficient monitoring on both spatial and temporal scales. Therefore, this work aimed to reconstruct past thermal stress episodes across South Atlantic reefs, and assessed whether episodes are becoming more intense, longer-lasting, and more frequent. We retrieved daily 5 km-resolution Degree Heating Week (DHW) data from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Coral Reef Watch server for 33 reef sites spanning the last 40 years. For each thermal stress episode, we assessed the intensity (maximum DHW value), duration (number of continuous days under stress), and frequency (number of days between episodes). Generalized linear models were fitted to intensity, duration, and frequency data to evaluate the influence of latitude and the time x region interaction as predictors. We recorded multiple thermal stress episodes, increasing from 2010 onwards, ranging from 10 episodes between 1985-89 and 75 between 2020-24. Intensity and duration increased over time across the entire South Atlantic. Frequency also increased across the Southwestern Atlantic coast and oceanic islands, but not for Africa. Episodes at higher latitudes were more intense, prolonged, and frequent. The validity of the thermal stress history reconstruction was groundtruthed using information from the Abrolhos Bank, the only consistently monitored reef site in the South Atlantic-DHW data accurately matched the observed bleaching episodes at this site. With this, our dataset shows that multiple bleaching episodes likely occurred in the South Atlantic, but went undocumented in the field. Therefore, the information currently available for the South Atlantic likely underestimates the extent of bleaching occurring in the area, which is experiencing increases in intensity, duration, and frequency of thermal stress.

Herbivore functions in the hot-seat: Resilience of Acanthurus triostegus to marine heatwaves

Herbivorous fishes play a crucial role in the conservation of coral reefs threatened by thermal stress (e.g., marine heatwaves and long-term ocean warming) by helping to maintain reefs in a coral-dominated state via the removal of algae. However, as thermally sensitive ectotherms, rising thermal stress may also pose a serious threat to these fishes and the critical ecosystem functions they deliver. Here we evaluate the consequences of thermal stress on the capacity of a common herbivorous coral reef fish (Acanthurus triostegus) to control finely filamentous matrices of Caulerpa sertularioides and C. verticillata algae in Hawai'i, by characterizing in-vivo changes in metabolic demands, diurnal foraging rates, activity patterns and individual condition in a laboratory setting during winter (24.0±0.1°C), summer (27.5±0.1°C), and at the peak of a representative marine heatwave, (31.0±0.1°C). Rising temperatures caused significant increases in standard metabolic rate (from ~135 O2 kg-1 h-1 in winter to 224 O2 kg-1 h-1 at the peak of a marine heatwave), but not in the proportion of time spent active (~83-96%) or foraging (~2.4 bites min-1). Consequently, A. triostegus gained body mass during summer and winter, but lost ~0.8% body mass per day during the marine heatwave. Given marine heatwaves can last for weeks to months, these results indicate that while herbivorous coral reef fishes may continue to remove algae during periods of thermal stress, their ability to control many macroalga may be limited due to precipitous reductions in individual performance. Therefore, in addition to algal types, the thermal sensitivity in herbivorous reef fishes will need to be considered for the successful implementation of coral-algal management strategies in a warmer world.

Genomic data reveals habitat partitioning in massive Porites on Guam, Micronesia

Corals in marginal reef habitats generally exhibit less bleaching and associated mortality compared to nearby corals in more pristine reef environments. It is unclear, however, if these differences are due to environmental differences, including turbidity, or genomic differences between the coral hosts in these different environments. One particularly interesting case is in the coral genus Porites, which contains numerous morphologically similar massive Porites species inhabiting a wide range of reef habitats, from turbid river deltas and stagnant back reefs to high-energy fore reefs. Here, we generate ddRAD data for 172 Porites corals from river delta and adjacent (<0.5 km) fore reef populations on Guam to assess the extent of genetic differentiation among massive Porites corals in these two contrasting environments and throughout the island. Phylogenetic and population genomic analyses consistently identify seven different clades of massive Porites, with the two largest clades predominantly inhabiting either river deltas or fore reefs, respectively. No population structure was detected in the two largest clades, and Cladocopium was the dominant symbiont genus in all clades and environments. The perceived bleaching resilience of corals in marginal reefs may therefore be attributed to interspecific differences between morphologically similar species, in addition to potentially mediating environmental differences. Marginal reef environments may therefore not provide a suitable refuge for many reef corals in a heating world, but instead host additional cryptic coral diversity.

Biogeographic and seasonal differences in consumer pressure underlie strong predation in the tropics

Biotic interactions play a critical role in shaping patterns of global biodiversity. While several macroecological studies provide evidence for stronger predation in tropical regions compared with higher latitudes, results are variable even within the tropics, and the drivers of this variability are not well understood. We conducted two complementary standardized experiments on communities of sessile marine invertebrate prey and their associated predators to test for spatial and seasonal differences in predation across the tropical Atlantic and Pacific coastlines of Panama. We further tested the prediction that higher predator diversity contributes to stronger impacts of predation, using both direct observations of predators and data from extensive reef surveys. Our results revealed substantially higher predation rates and stronger effects of predators on prey in the Pacific than in the Atlantic, demonstrating striking variation within tropical regions. While regional predator diversity was high in the Atlantic, functional diversity at local scales was markedly low. Peak predation strength in the Pacific occurred during the wet, non-upwelling season when ocean temperatures were warmer and predator communities were more functionally diverse. Our results highlight the importance of regional biotic and abiotic drivers that shape interaction strength and the maintenance of tropical communities, which are experiencing rapid environmental change.

Effects of Madagascar marine reserves on juvenile and adult coral abundance, and the implication for population regulation

Recruitment is a critical component in the dynamics of coral assemblages, and a key question is to determine the degree to which spatial heterogeneity of adults is influenced by pre-vs. post-settlement processes. We analyzed the density of juvenile and adult corals among 18 stations located at three regions around Madagascar, and examined the effects of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs). Our survey did not detect a positive effect of MPAs on juveniles, except for Porites at the study scale. The MPA effect was more pronounced for adults, notably for Acropora, Montipora, Seriatopora, and Porites at the regional scale. For most dominant genera, densities of juveniles and adults were positively correlated at the study scale, and at least at one of the three regions. These outcomes suggest recruitment-limitation relationships for several coral taxa, although differences in post-settlement events may be sufficiently strong to distort the pattern established at settlement for other populations. The modest benefits of MPAs on the density of juvenile corals demonstrated here argue in favor of strengthening conservation measures more specifically focused to protect recruitment processes.

Study Protocol: Interactive Dynamics of Coral Reef Fisheries and the Nutrition Transition in Kiribati

The Kiribati 2019 Integrated Household Income and Expenditure Survey (Integrated HIES) embeds novel ecological and human health research into an ongoing social and economic survey infrastructure implemented by the Pacific Community in partnership with national governments. This study seeks to describe the health status of a large, nationally representative sample of a geographically and socially diverse I-Kiribati population through multiple clinical measurements and detailed socio-economic surveys, while also conducting supporting food systems research on ecological, social, and institutional drivers of change. The specific hypotheses within this research relate to access to seafood and the potential nutritional and health benefits of these foods. We conducted this research in 21 of the 23 inhabited islands of Kiribati, excluding the two inhabited islands-Kanton Islands in the Phoenix Islands group with a population of 41 persons (2020 census) and Banaba Island in the Gilbert Islands group with a population of 333 persons (2020 census)-and focusing exclusively on the remaining islands in the Gilbert and Line Islands groups. Within this sample, we focused our intensive human health and ecological research in 10 of the 21 selected islands to examine the relationship between ecological conditions, resource governance, food system dynamics, and dietary patterns. Ultimately, this research has created a baseline for future Integrated HIES assessments to simultaneously monitor change in ecological, social, economic, and human health conditions and how they co-vary over time.

Coral reefs in the Gilbert Islands of Kiribati: Resistance, resilience, and recovery after more than a decade of multiple stressors

Coral reefs are increasingly affected by a combination of acute and chronic disturbances from climate change and local stressors. The coral reefs of the Republic of Kiribati's Gilbert Islands are exposed to frequent heat stress caused by central-Pacific type El Niño events, and may provide a glimpse into the future of coral reefs in other parts of the world, where the frequency of heat stress events will likely increase due to climate change. Reefs in the Gilbert Islands experienced a series of acute disturbances over the past fifteen years, including mass coral bleaching in 2004-2005 and 2009-2010, and an outbreak of the corallivorous sea star Acanthaster cf solaris, or Crown-of-Thorns (CoTs), in 2014. The local chronic pressures including nutrient loading, sedimentation and fishing vary within the island chain, with highest pressures on the reefs in urbanized South Tarawa Atoll. In this study, we examine how recovery from acute disturbances differs across a gradient of human influence in neighboring Tarawa and Abaiang Atolls from 2012 through 2018. Benthic cover and size frequency data suggests that local coral communities have adjusted to the heat stress via shifts in the community composition to more temperature-tolerant taxa and individuals. In densely populated South Tarawa, we document a phase shift to the weedy and less bleaching-sensitive coral Porites rus, which accounted for 81% of all coral cover by 2018. By contrast, in less populated Abaiang, coral communities remained comparatively more diverse (with higher percentages of Pocillopora and the octocoral Heliopora) after the disturbances, but reefs had lower overall hard coral cover (18%) and were dominated by turf algae (41%). The CoTs outbreak caused a decline in the cover and mean size of massive Porites, the only taxa that was a 'winner' of the coral bleaching events in Abaiang. Although there are signs of recovery, the long-term trajectory of the benthic communities in Abaiang is not yet clear. We suggest three scenarios: they may remain in their current state (dominated by turf algae), undergo a phase shift to dominance by the macroalgae Halimeda, or recover to dominance by thermally tolerant hard coral genera. These findings provide a rare glimpse at the future of coral reefs around the world and the ways they may be affected by climate change, which may allow scientists to better predict how other reefs will respond to increasing heat stress events across gradients of local human disturbance.

Cloudiness reduces the bleaching response of coral reefs exposed to heat stress

Climate change and warming ocean temperatures are a threat to coral reef ecosystems. Since the 1980s, there has been an increase in mass coral bleaching and associated coral mortality due to more frequent and severe thermal stress. Although most research has focused on the role of temperature, coral bleaching is a product of the interacting effects of temperature and other environmental variables such as solar radiation. High light exacerbates the effects of thermal stress on corals, whereas reductions in light can reduce sensitivity to thermal stress. Here, we use an updated global dataset of coral bleaching observations (n = 35,769) from 1985 to 2017 and satellite-derived datasets of SST and clouds to examine for the first time at a global scale the influence of cloudiness on the likelihood of bleaching from thermal stress. We find that among coral reefs exposed to severe bleaching-level heat stress (Degree Heating Weeks >8°Cˑweek), bleaching severity is inversely correlated with the interaction of heat stress and cloud fraction anomalies (p < 0.05), such that higher cloudiness implies reduced bleaching response. A Random Forest model analysis employing different set of environmental variables shows that a model employing Degree Heating Weeks and the 30-day cloud fraction anomaly most accurately predicts bleaching severity (Accuracy = 0.834; Cohen's Kappa = 0.769). Based on these results and global warm-season cloudiness patterns, we develop a 'cloudy refugia' index which identifies the central equatorial Pacific and French Polynesia as regions where cloudiness is most likely to protect corals from bleaching. Our findings suggest that incorporating cloudiness into prediction models can help delineate bleaching responses and identify reefs which may be more resilient to climate change.

Extreme temperature events will drive coral decline in the Coral Triangle

In light of rapid environmental change, quantifying the contribution of regional- and local-scale drivers of coral persistence is necessary to characterize fully the resilience of coral reef systems. To assess multiscale responses to thermal perturbation of corals in the Coral Triangle (CT), we developed a spatially explicit metacommunity model with coral-algal competition, including seasonal larval dispersal and external spatiotemporal forcing. We tested coral sensitivity in 2,083 reefs across the CT region and surrounding areas under potential future temperature regimes, with and without interannual climate variability, exploring a range of 0.5-2.0°C overall increase in temperature in the system by 2054. We found that among future projections, reef survival probability and mean percent coral cover over time were largely determined by the presence or absence of interannual sea surface temperature (SST) extremes as well as absolute temperature increase. Overall, reefs that experienced SST time series that were filtered to remove interannual variability had approximately double the chance of survival than reefs subjected to unfiltered SST. By the end of the forecast period, the inclusion of thermal anomalies was equivalent to an increase of at least 0.5°C in SST projections without anomalies. Change in percent coral cover varied widely across the region within temperature scenarios, with some reefs experiencing local extinction while others remaining relatively unchanged. Sink strength and current thermal stress threshold were found to be significant drivers of these patterns, highlighting the importance of processes that underlie larval connectivity and bleaching sensitivity in coral networks.