Genetic Risk Score Is Associated With Prevalence of Advanced Neoplasms in a Colorectal Cancer Screening Population

Colon Polyp Surveillance: Separating the Wheat From the Chaff

One goal of colorectal cancer (CRC) screening is to prevent CRC incidence by removing precancerous colonic polyps, which are detected in up to 50% of screening examinations. Yet, the lifetime risk of CRC is 3.9%-4.3%, so it is clear that most of these individuals with polyps would not develop CRC in their lifetime. It is, therefore, a challenge to determine which individuals with polyps will benefit from follow-up, and at what intervals. There is some evidence that individuals with advanced polyps, based on size and histology, benefit from intensive surveillance. However, a large proportion of individuals will have small polyps without advanced histologic features (ie, "nonadvanced"), where the benefits of surveillance are uncertain and controversial. Demand for surveillance will further increase as more polyps are detected due to increased screening uptake, recent United States recommendations to expand screening to younger individuals, and emergence of polyp detection technology. We review the current understanding and clinical implications of the natural history, biology, and outcomes associated with various categories of colon polyps based on size, histology, and number. Our aims are to highlight key knowledge gaps, specifically focusing on certain categories of polyps that may not be associated with future CRC risk, and to provide insights to inform research priorities and potential management strategies. Optimization of CRC prevention programs based on updated knowledge about the future risks associated with various colon polyps is essential to ensure cost-effective screening and surveillance, wise use of resources, and inform efforts to personalize recommendations.

Focusing on colorectal cancer in young adults (Review)

Colorectal cancer (CRC) ranks as the third leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. Recent years have witnessed an increase in the incidence of CRC among adults <50 years old on a global scale. The increased incidence is associated with several modifiable risk factors, including obesity, type II diabetes, physical inactivity and frequent antibiotic use. In younger individuals, haematochezia and abdominal pain are the most common symptoms, predominantly affecting the left-side colon. While certain cases of early-onset CRC (eoCRC) are associated with a genetic predisposition, the majority result from sporadic mutations in the genes APC, KRAS, BRAF and TP53, which trigger uncontrolled cell proliferation and tumour formation. Colorectal carcinogenesis involves three major pathways: The chromosomal instability (CIN), microsatellite instability and CpG island methylator phenotype pathways. Dysregulation of the CIN pathway accounts for 85% of sporadic cases of eoCRC. Notably, eoCRC exhibits a distinctive molecular profile, characterized by a decreased prevalence of BRAF mutations, an increased prevalence of KRAS mutations and LINE-1 hypomethylation, and involvement of the Microsatellite and Chromosomal Stable pathway. Prevention strategies for eoCRC primarily centre on lifestyle modifications and the development of screening programs targeting younger populations. Further exploration into the molecular mechanisms involved in the identification of novel risk factors associated with eoCRC is imperative. These efforts, in conjunction with the development of specific screening strategies, hold the potential to reduce morbidity and mortality in the future.

Colorectal Cancer Risk Assessment and Precision Approaches to Screening: Brave New World or Worlds Apart?

Current colorectal cancer (CRC) screening recommendations take a "one-size-fits-all" approach using age as the major criterion to initiate screening. Precision screening that incorporates factors beyond age to risk stratify individuals could improve on current approaches and optimally use available resources with benefits for patients, providers, and health care systems. Prediction models could identify high-risk groups who would benefit from more intensive screening, while low-risk groups could be recommended less intensive screening incorporating noninvasive screening modalities. In addition to age, prediction models incorporate well-established risk factors such as genetics (eg, family CRC history, germline, and polygenic risk scores), lifestyle (eg, smoking, alcohol, diet, and physical inactivity), sex, and race and ethnicity among others. Although several risk prediction models have been validated, few have been systematically studied for risk-adapted population CRC screening. In order to envisage clinical implementation of precision screening in the future, it will be critical to develop reliable and accurate prediction models that apply to all individuals in a population; prospectively study risk-adapted CRC screening on the population level; garner acceptance from patients and providers; and assess feasibility, resources, cost, and cost-effectiveness of these new paradigms. This review evaluates the current state of risk prediction modeling and provides a roadmap for future implementation of precision CRC screening.

Polygenic Risk Score for Defining Personalized Surveillance Intervals After Adenoma Detection and Removal at Colonoscopy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could help to define personalized colorectal cancer (CRC) screening strategies. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether a PRS, along with adenoma characteristics, could help to define more personalized and risk-adapted surveillance intervals.

METHODS

In a population-based, case-control study from Germany, detailed information on previous colonoscopies and a PRS based on 140 CRC-related, single-nucleotide polymorphisms was obtained from 4696 CRC cases and 3709 controls. Participants were classified as having low, medium, or high genetic risk according to tertiles of PRSs among controls. We calculated the absolute risk of CRC based on the PRS and colonoscopy history and findings.

RESULTS

We observed major variations of CRC risk according to the PRS, including among individuals with detection and removal of adenomas at colonoscopy. For instance, the estimated 10-year absolute risk of CRC for 50-year-old men and women with no polyps, for whom repeat screening colonoscopy is recommended after 10 years only, was 0.2%. Equivalent absolute risks were estimated for people with low-risk adenomas and low PRS. However, the same levels of absolute risk were reached within 3 to 5 years by those with low-risk adenomas and high PRS and with high-risk adenomas irrespective of the PRS.

CONCLUSIONS

Consideration of genetic predisposition to CRC risk, as determined by a PRS, could help to define personalized, risk-adapted surveillance intervals after detection and removal of adenomas at screening colonoscopy. However, whether the risk variation is strong enough to direct clinical risk stratification needs to be explored further.

Predictive Value of Genetic Risk Scores in the Development of Colorectal Adenomas

INTRODUCTION

Unlike colorectal cancer (CRC), few studies have explored the predictive value of genetic risk scores (GRS) in the development of colorectal adenomas (CRA), either alone or in combination with other demographic and clinical factors.

METHODS

In this study, genomic DNA from 613 Spanish Caucasian patients with CRA and 829 polyp-free individuals was genotyped for 88 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with CRC risk using the MassArray™ (Sequenom) platform. After applying a multivariate logistic regression model, five SNPs were selected to calculate the GRS. Regression models adjusted by sex, age, family history of CRC, chronic use of NSAIDs, low-dose ASA, and consumption of tobacco were built in order to study the association between GRS and CRA risk. We evaluated the discriminatory capacity using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). The interactions between demographic information and GRS were also analyzed.

RESULTS

Significant associations between high GRS values and risk of CRA for analyzed models were observed. In particular, patients with higher GRS values had 2.3-2.6-fold increase in risk of CRA compared to patients with middle values. Combining sex and age with the GRS significantly increased the discriminatory accuracy of the univariate model with GRS alone. The best model achieved an AUC value of 0.665 (95% CI: 0.63-0.69). The GRS showed a different behavior depending on sex and age.

CONCLUSION

Our findings showed that, besides sex and age, GRS is an important risk factor for development of CRA and may be useful for CRC risk stratification and adaptation of screening programs.

Head-to-head comparison of a risk-adapted screening strategy using various risk prediction models in detecting colorectal neoplasm

BACKGROUND AND AIM

The risk-adapted screening strategy showed satisfying colorectal cancer (CRC) screening yield and efficiency. We therefore further explored the diagnostic performance variation of this strategy using different risk prediction models.

METHODS

A literature search was conducted to identify studies evaluating risk models for advanced colorectal neoplasm (ACN). The included models were retrospectively validated in a subset sample (N = 3219) from a population-based CRC screening trial in China. Diagnosis-related indictors were compared between the risk-adapted screening strategy using different models and the fecal immunochemical test (FIT)-only strategy. For simulated populations with ACN prevalence of 3% to 12%, the trade-off of additional false positives for each additional true positive were calculated.

RESULTS

We included 14 eligible risk models with the area under the curves ranging 0.570 to 0.652 in the validation set. The overall sensitivities of the risk-adapted screening strategy using different risk models for ACN varied from 46.0% to 69.8%, higher than FIT (21.9%), but at the expense of specificities (51.6% to 78.3% vs 97.1%). For population having ACN prevalence of 3%, risk-adapted screening strategies needed 20.5 to 31.1 additional false positives for each additional true positive compared with FIT, and respective number would substantially reduce (4.7 to 7.1) as the ACN prevalence increased to 12%.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk-adapted screening strategy using the current risk models showed improved sensitivity for ACN compared with FIT, at the cost of increased colonoscopy workload. The optimal strategy for screening practice should be tailored considering the disease burden and availability of healthcare resources.

Evaluating the Potential of Polygenic Risk Score to Improve Colorectal Cancer Screening

BACKGROUND

Colorectal cancer has high incidence and associated mortality worldwide. Screening programs are recommended for men and women over 50. Intermediate screens such as fecal immunochemical testing (FIT) select patients for colonoscopy with suboptimal sensitivity. Additional biomarkers could improve the current scenario.

METHODS

We included 2,893 individuals with a positive FIT test. They were classified as cases when a high-risk lesion for colorectal cancer was detected after colonoscopy, whereas the control group comprised individuals with low-risk or no lesions. 65 colorectal cancer risk genetic variants were genotyped. Polygenic risk score (PRS) and additive models for risk prediction incorporating sex, age, FIT value, and PRS were generated.

RESULTS

Risk score was higher in cases compared with controls [per allele OR = 1.04; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.02-1.06; P < 0.0001]. A 2-fold increase in colorectal cancer risk was observed for subjects in the highest decile of risk alleles (≥65), compared with those in the first decile (≤54; OR = 2.22; 95% CI, 1.59-3.12; P < 0.0001). The model combining sex, age, FIT value, and PRS reached the highest accuracy for identifying patients with a high-risk lesion [cross-validated area under the ROC curve (AUROC): 0.64; 95% CI, 0.62-0.66].

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first investigation analyzing PRS in a two-step colorectal cancer screening program. PRS could improve current colorectal cancer screening, most likely for higher at-risk subgroups. However, its capacity is limited to predict colorectal cancer risk status and should be complemented by additional biomarkers.

IMPACT

PRS has capacity for risk stratification of colorectal cancer suggesting its potential for optimizing screening strategies alongside with other biomarkers.

Combined performance of fecal immunochemical tests and a genetic risk score for advanced neoplasia detection

Fecal immunochemical tests (FITs) are increasingly used as noninvasive screening tests in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening programs. Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are increasingly propagated for risk stratification in CRC screening. We aimed to assess the potential of combining FIT results and PRS to enhance diagnostic accuracy of detecting advanced neoplasia (AN) compared to using FIT results alone. Of 10,362 participants of screening colonoscopy in Southern Germany who conducted either one of two quantitative FITs, genotyping was done in all participants with advanced neoplasia (CRC or advanced adenoma) and a random subset of controls. Among 5,306 individuals, a PRS was calculated based on the number of risk alleles in 140 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Partial areas under the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves (pAUCs) were computed for FIT and PRS alone and combined, focusing on a specificity range of 100%-80%. Both FITs showed similar performance characteristics with pAUCs (95%CIs) of 0.661 (0.625-0.698) (Ridascreen Hemoglobin) and 0.682 (0.661-0.701) (FOB Gold) for AN detection. PRS alone reached a pAUC (95%CI) of 0.524 (0.499-0.550) and 0.530 (0.516-0.545), respectively, and its addition to FIT did not improve pAUCs (0.659 (0.622-0.697) and 0.667 (0.650-0.687), respectively). This finding was confirmed by investigating sensitivities at fixed specificities at 85%, 90% and 95%. Partial AUCs also did not improve when adding the weighted PRS to FIT instead of the unweighted PRS. In summary, the combination with PRS did not improve diagnostic accuracy of FIT-based screening in a large asymptomatic CRC screening population from South-Western Germany.

Correlation of Repeat Measurements of 27 Candidate Protein Markers for Colorectal Cancer Screening Taken Three Years and Multiple Freeze-Thaw Cycles Apart

In recent years the blood proteome has been increasingly researched for biomarkers for early detection of colorectal cancer (CRC). Blood samples from screening studies are often subject to preanalytical variability and repeated freeze−thaw cycles. We aimed to assess the correlation of repeat measurements of 27 candidate protein markers for CRC screening taken three years and multiple freeze−thaw cycles apart. The concentrations of 27 protein markers were measured in plasma samples of 39 newly detected CRC cases from a cohort of 9245 participants of screening colonoscopies. The proteins were measured using proximity extension assays (PEA) carried out on the same set of samples twice, three years apart, with an average of three freeze−thaw cycles in between the two measurements. Pearson’s product moment correlation coefficients were calculated. Correlation coefficients ranged from +0.43 to +0.97, with a median of 0.67 and an interquartile range of +0.58 to +0.84, with all p-values of correlation being <0.01 (<0.0005 for 22 proteins, <0.001 for 4 proteins). Repeat measurements of the 27 protein biomarkers for CRC screening performed three years later, and on average three freeze−thaw cycles apart, showed moderate to high levels of correlation. Apart from the effects of freeze−thaw cycles, slightly different preprocessing performed on the data may have contributed to recorded differences between measurements.

Healthy lifestyle and the risk of conventional adenomas and serrated polyps: Findings from a large colonoscopy screening population

Evidence on the link between healthy lifestyle and colorectal cancer (CRC) precursors is limited. Our study aimed to examine and compare the associations of healthy lifestyle with CRC precursors in adenoma (AD) -carcinoma and serrated pathways. A total of 24,480 participants including 6,309 ADs, 1,343 serrated polyps (SPs), and 16,828 polyp-free controls were included. A healthy lifestyle score (HLS) was constructed based on five lifestyle factors including cigarette smoking, alcohol drinking, physical activity, diet, and body weight, and categorized into least, slightly, moderately, and most healthy. Multivariable logistic regressions were used to estimate odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (CI). Inverse dose-response associations between the HLS and risk of ADs were observed (OR per 1 score increment for ADs: 0.82 [95% CI 0.79 - 0.84]; for SPs: 0.73 [95% CI 0.69 - 0.78]), and the association with SPs was more evident than with ADs (OR 0.90, 95% CI 0.85 - 0.96). Compared with participants with the least healthy lifestyle, those with the most healthy lifestyle had 47% lower risk of ADs (OR 0.53, 95% CI 0.47 - 0.59) and 70% lower risk of SPs (OR 0.30, 95% CI 0.23 - 0.39), respectively. These inverse associations were consistent across lesion stage and anatomic subsite and not modified by any stratification factors. The risk advancement periods for the most vs. the least healthy lifestyle were -9.49 years for ADs and -20.69 years for SPs. Our findings help confirm the preventive role of healthy lifestyle in colorectal carcinogenesis.

Variation of Positive Predictive Values of Fecal Immunochemical Tests by Polygenic Risk Score in a Large Screening Cohort

INTRODUCTION

Prevalence of colorectal neoplasms varies by polygenic risk scores (PRS). We aimed to assess to what extent a PRS might be relevant for defining personalized cutoff values for fecal immunochemical tests (FITs) in colorectal cancer screening.

METHODS

Among 5,306 participants of screening colonoscopy who provided a stool sample for a quantitative FIT (Ridascreen Hemoglobin or FOB Gold) before colonoscopy, a PRS was determined, based on the number of risk alleles in 140 single nucleotide polymorphisms. Subjects were classified into low, medium, and high genetic risk of colorectal neoplasms according to PRS tertiles. We calculated positive predictive values (PPVs) and numbers needed to scope (NNS) to detect 1 advanced neoplasm (AN) by the risk group, and cutoff variation needed to achieve comparable PPVs across risk groups in the samples tested with Ridascreen (N = 1,271) and FOB Gold (N = 4,035) independently, using cutoffs yielding 85%, 90%, or 95% specificity.

RESULTS

Performance of both FITs was very similar within each PRS group. For a given cutoff, PPVs were consistently higher by 11%-15% units in the high-risk PRS group compared with the low-risk group (all P values < 0.05). Correspondingly, NNS to detect 1 advanced neoplasm varied from 2 (high PRS, high cutoff) to 5 (low PRS, low cutoff). Conversely, very different FIT cutoffs would be needed to ensure comparable PPVs across PRS groups.

DISCUSSION

PPVs and NNS of FITs varied widely across people with high and low genetic risk score. Further research should evaluate the relevance of these differences for personalized colorectal cancer screening.

Polygenic risk prediction models for colorectal cancer: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Risk prediction models incorporating single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) could lead to individualized prevention of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, the added value of incorporating SNPs into models with only traditional risk factors is still not clear. Hence, our primary aim was to summarize literature on risk prediction models including genetic variants for CRC, while our secondary aim was to evaluate the improvement of discriminatory accuracy when adding SNPs to a prediction model with only traditional risk factors.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review on prediction models incorporating multiple SNPs for CRC risk prediction. We tested whether a significant trend in the increase of Area Under Curve (AUC) according to the number of SNPs could be observed, and estimated the correlation between AUC improvement and number of SNPs. We estimated pooled AUC improvement for SNP-enhanced models compared with non-SNP-enhanced models using random effects meta-analysis, and conducted meta-regression to investigate the association of specific factors with AUC improvement.

RESULTS

We included 33 studies, 78.79% using genetic risk scores to combine genetic data. We found no significant trend in AUC improvement according to the number of SNPs (p for trend = 0.774), and no correlation between the number of SNPs and AUC improvement (p = 0.695). Pooled AUC improvement was 0.040 (95% CI: 0.035, 0.045), and the number of cases in the study and the AUC of the starting model were inversely associated with AUC improvement obtained when adding SNPs to a prediction model. In addition, models constructed in Asian individuals achieved better AUC improvement with the incorporation of SNPs compared with those developed among individuals of European ancestry.

CONCLUSIONS

Though not conclusive, our results provide insights on factors influencing discriminatory accuracy of SNP-enhanced models. Genetic variants might be useful to inform stratified CRC screening in the future, but further research is needed.

Ability of known colorectal cancer susceptibility SNPs to predict colorectal cancer risk: A cohort study within the UK Biobank

Colorectal cancer risk stratification is crucial to improve screening and risk-reducing recommendations, and consequently do better than a one-size-fits-all screening regimen. Current screening guidelines in the UK, USA and Australia focus solely on family history and age for risk prediction, even though the vast majority of the population do not have any family history. We investigated adding a polygenic risk score based on 45 single-nucleotide polymorphisms to a family history model (combined model) to quantify how it improves the stratification and discriminatory performance of 10-year risk and full lifetime risk using a prospective population-based cohort within the UK Biobank. For both 10-year and full lifetime risk, the combined model had a wider risk distribution compared with family history alone, resulting in improved risk stratification of nearly 2-fold between the top and bottom risk quintiles of the full lifetime risk model. Importantly, the combined model can identify people (n = 72,019) who do not have family history of colorectal cancer but have a predicted risk that is equivalent to having at least one affected first-degree relative (n = 44,950). We also confirmed previous findings by showing that the combined full lifetime risk model significantly improves discriminatory accuracy compared with a simple family history model 0.673 (95% CI 0.664–0.682) versus 0.666 (95% CI 0.657–0.675), p = 0.0065. Therefore, a combined polygenic risk score and first-degree family history model could be used to improve risk stratified population screening programs.

Optimizing Positivity Thresholds for a Risk-Adapted Screening Strategy in Colorectal Cancer Screening

INTRODUCTION

Risk-adapted screening combining the Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening score, fecal immunochemical test (FIT), and colonoscopy improved the yield of colorectal cancer screening than FIT. However, the optimal positivity thresholds of risk scoring and FIT of such a strategy warrant further investigation.

METHODS

We included 3,407 participants aged 50-74 years undergoing colonoscopy from a colorectal cancer screening trial. For the risk-adapted screening strategy, subjects were referred for subsequent colonoscopy or FIT according to their risk scores. Diagnostic performance was evaluated for FIT and the risk-adapted screening method with various positivity thresholds. Furthermore, a modeled screening cohort was established to compare the yield and cost using colonoscopy, FIT, and the risk-adapted screening method in a single round of screening.

RESULTS

Risk-adapted screening method had higher sensitivity for advanced neoplasm (AN) (27.6%-76.3% vs 13.8%-17.3%) but lower specificity (46.6%-90.8% vs 97.4%-98.8%) than FIT did. In a modeled screening cohort, FIT-based screening would be slightly affected because the threshold varied with a reduction of 76.0%-80.9% in AN detection and 82.0%-84.4% in cost when compared with colonoscopy. By contrast, adjusting the threshold of Asia-Pacific Colorectal Screening score from 3 to 5 points for risk-adapted screening varied from an increase of 12.6%-14.1% to a decrease of 55.6%-60.1% in AN detection, with the reduction of cost from 4.2%-5.3% rising to 66.4%-68.5%.

DISCUSSION

With an appropriate positivity threshold tailored to clinical practice, the risk-adapted screening could save colonoscopy resources and cost compared with the colonoscopy-only and FIT-only strategies.

Independent and cumulative coeliac disease-susceptibility loci are associated with distinct disease phenotypes

The phenotype of coeliac disease varies considerably for incompletely understood reasons. We investigated whether established coeliac disease susceptibility variants (SNPs) are individually or cumulatively associated with distinct phenotypes. We also tested whether a polygenic risk score (PRS) based on genome-wide associated (GWA) data could explain the phenotypic variation. The phenotypic association of 39 non-HLA coeliac disease SNPs was tested in 625 thoroughly phenotyped coeliac disease patients and 1817 controls. To assess their cumulative effects a weighted genetic risk score (wGRS39) was built, and stratified by tertiles. In our PRS model in cases, we took the summary statistics from the largest GWA study in coeliac disease and tested their association at eight P value thresholds (PT) with phenotypes. Altogether ten SNPs were associated with distinct phenotypes after correction for multiple testing (PEMP2 ≤ 0.05). The TLR7/TLR8 locus was associated with disease onset before and the SH2B3/ATXN2, ITGA4/UBE2E3 and IL2/IL21 loci after 7 years of age. The latter three loci were associated with a more severe small bowel mucosal damage and SH2B3/ATXN2 with type 1 diabetes. Patients at the highest wGRS39 tertiles had OR > 1.62 for having coeliac disease-related symptoms during childhood, a more severe small bowel mucosal damage, malabsorption and anaemia. PRS was associated only with dermatitis herpetiformis (PT = 0.2, PEMP2 = 0.02). Independent coeliac disease-susceptibility loci are associated with distinct phenotypes, suggesting that genetic factors play a role in determining the disease presentation. Moreover, the increased number of coeliac disease susceptibility SNPs might predispose to a more severe disease course.

Impact of Inadequate Bowel Cleansing on Colonoscopic Findings in Routine Screening Practice

INTRODUCTION

Colonoscopy is an imperfect gold standard for detecting colorectal neoplasms because some proportion of adenomas may be missed, mainly small lesions. This proportion is expected to be higher in case of inadequate bowel cleansing, which is frequently seen in routine practice. We estimated the proportions of neoplasms that are in principle detectable by colonoscopy but might be missed in case of incomplete bowel preparation.

METHODS

For 8,193 participants of screening colonoscopy in South-Western Germany, recruited between 2005 and 2016, the prevalence and numbers of different findings were extracted from colonoscopy reports and compared according to the reported bowel preparation quality.

RESULTS

Bowel preparation quality was reported as good, poor, or was unspecified in 30.3%, 11.1%, and 58.6% of colonoscopy records. Reported prevalences of nonadvanced adenomas (NAAs) were similar among participants with poor and unspecified bowel preparation quality but substantially lower than among participants with good bowel preparation (adjusted prevalence rate ratio [RR] 0.86, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.77-0.96). The differences were observed for proximal but not for distal NAAs (RRs 0.82, 95% CI: 0.71-0.95 and 0.95, 95% CI: 0.82-1.10).

DISCUSSION

Our study suggests that a significant proportion of NAAs located in the proximal colon might be missed during colonoscopy if bowel cleansing is not adequate. Major efforts should be made to further facilitate and enhance high-quality bowel preparation in routine screening practice.

Effects of Screenings in Reducing Colorectal Cancer Incidence and Mortality Differ by Polygenic Risk Scores

INTRODUCTION

Colorectal cancer (CRC) screening reduces CRC incidence and mortality. However, it is unclear whether the reduction in CRC risk may differ by genetic susceptibility.

METHODS

We evaluated this question in a cohort of 304,740 participants of European descent aged 50 years and older. Genetic susceptibility was measured using a polygenic risk score (PRS) constructed with risk variants identified in genomewide association studies. Cox models were used to estimate hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals of CRC risk.

RESULTS

Over a median follow-up of 7.0 years, 2,261 incident CRC cases and 528 CRC deaths were identified. CRC screening was associated with a significantly reduced CRC incidence among individuals with a high (hazard ratio, 0.80; 95% confidence interval, 0.71-0.92) and intermediate PRS (0.84, 0.71-0.98) but not among those with a low PRS (1.03, 0.86-1.25; Pinteraction, 0.005). A similar but more evident difference was observed for mortality (Pinteraction, 0.046), with more than 30% reduced mortality observed in the high PRS group (0.69, 0.52-0.91). Among the younger group (age 50-60 years), CRC screenings were associated with a slightly (but nonsignificantly) elevated incidence and mortality in the low PRS group but a reduced risk in the high PRS group (Pinteraction, 0.043 [incidence]; 0.092 [mortality]). No significant interaction was observed in the older group (age > 60 years).

DISCUSSION

Individuals with a higher genetic risk benefited more substantially from CRC screenings than those with a lower risk. Our findings suggest that PRS may be used to develop personalized CRC screening to maximize its effect on CRC prevention.

Individual and Joint Associations of Genetic Risk and Healthy Lifestyle Score with Colorectal Neoplasms Among Participants of Screening Colonoscopy

Genetic and lifestyle factors contribute to colorectal cancer risk. We investigated their individual and joint associations with various stages of colorectal carcinogenesis. We assessed associations of a polygenic risk score (PRS) and a healthy lifestyle score (HLS) with presence of nonadvanced adenomas and advanced neoplasms among 2,585 participants of screening colonoscopy from Germany. The PRS and HLS individually showed only weak associations with presence of nonadvanced adenomas; stronger associations were observed with advanced neoplasms (ORs, 95% CI, for highest vs. lowest risk tertile: PRS 2.27, 1.78-2.88; HLS 1.96, 1.53-2.51). The PRS was associated with higher odds of advanced neoplasms among carriers of any neoplasms (1.65, 1.23-2.22). Subjects in the highest risk tertile (vs. lowest tertile) of both scores had higher risks for nonadvanced adenomas (1.77, 1.09-2.86), for advanced neoplasms (3.95, 2.53-6.16) and, among carriers of any neoplasms, for advanced versus nonadvanced neoplasms (2.26, 1.31-3.92). Both scores were individually associated with increased risk of nonadvanced adenomas and, much more pronounced, advanced neoplasms. The similarly strong association in relative terms across all levels of genetic risk implies that a healthy lifestyle may be particularly beneficial in those at highest genetic risk, given that the same relative risk reduction in this group would imply a stronger absolute risk reduction. Genetic factors may be of particular relevance for the transition of nonadvanced to advanced adenomas. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: Genetic factors have strong impact on the risk of colorectal neoplasms, which may be reduced by healthy lifestyle. Similarly strong associations in relative terms across all levels of genetic risk imply that a healthy lifestyle may be beneficial due to higher absolute risk reduction in those at highest genetic risk.

Novel Biomarkers in the Diagnosis of Benign and Malignant Gastrointestinal Diseases

BACKGROUND

Various noninvasive biomarkers have been used in the diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of different gastrointestinal (GI) diseases for years. Novel technological developments and profound perception of molecular processes related to GI diseases over the last decade have allowed researchers to evaluate genetic, epigenetic, and many other potential molecular biomarkers in different diseases and clinical settings. Here, we present a review of recent and most relevant articles in order to summarize major findings on novel biomarkers in the diagnosis of benign and malignant GI diseases.

SUMMARY

Genetic variations, noncoding RNAs (ncRNAs), cell-free DNA (cfDNA), and microbiome-based biomarkers have been extensively analyzed as potential biomarkers in benign and malignant GI diseases. Multiple single-nucleotide polymorphisms have been linked with a number of GI diseases, and these observations are further being used to build up disease-specific genetic risk scores. Micro-RNAs and long ncRNAs have a large potential as noninvasive biomarkers in the management of inflammatory bowel diseases and GI tumors. Altered microbiome profiles were observed in multiple GI diseases, but most of the findings still lack translational clinical application. As of today, cfDNA appears to be the most potent biomarker for early detection and screening of GI cancers. Key Messages: Novel noninvasive molecular biomarkers show huge potential as useful tools in the diagnostics and management of different GI diseases. However, the use of these biomarkers in real-life clinical practice still remains limited, and further large studies are needed to elucidate the ultimate role of these potential noninvasive clinical tools.

ACG Clinical Guidelines: Colorectal Cancer Screening 2021

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is the third most common cancer in men and women in the United States. CRC screening efforts are directed toward removal of adenomas and sessile serrated lesions and detection of early-stage CRC. The purpose of this article is to update the 2009 American College of Gastroenterology CRC screening guidelines. The guideline is framed around several key questions. We conducted a comprehensive literature search to include studies through October 2020. The inclusion criteria were studies of any design with men and women age 40 years and older. Detailed recommendations for CRC screening in average-risk individuals and those with a family history of CRC are discussed. We also provide recommendations on the role of aspirin for chemoprevention, quality indicators for colonoscopy, approaches to organized CRC screening and improving adherence to CRC screening. CRC screening must be optimized to allow effective and sustained reduction of CRC incidence and mortality. This can be accomplished by achieving high rates of adherence, quality monitoring and improvement, following evidence-based guidelines, and removing barriers through the spectrum of care from noninvasive screening tests to screening and diagnostic colonoscopy. The development of cost-effective, highly accurate, noninvasive modalities associated with improved overall adherence to the screening process is also a desirable goal.

Polygenic risk score is a predictor of adenomatous polyps at screening colonoscopy

Background

Single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP)-based polygenic risk scoring is predictive of colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. However, few studies have investigated the association of genetic risk score (GRS) with detection of adenomatous polyps at screening colonoscopy.

Methods

We randomly selected 1769 Caucasian subjects who underwent screening colonoscopy from the Genomic Health Initiative (GHI), a biobank of NorthShore University HealthSystem. Outcomes from initial screening colonoscopy were recorded. Twenty-two CRC risk-associated SNPs were obtained from the Affymetrix™ SNP array and used to calculate an odds ratio (OR)-weighted and population-standardized GRS. Subjects with GRS of < 0.5, 0.5–1.5, and > 1.5 were categorized as low, average and elevated risk.

Results

Among 1,769 subjects, 520 (29%) had 1 or more adenomatous polyps. GRS was significantly higher in subjects with adenomatous polyps than those without; mean (95% confidence interval) was 1.02 (1.00–1.05) and 0.97 (0.95–0.99), respectively, p < 0.001. The association remained significant after adjusting for age, gender, body mass index, and family history, p < 0.001. The detection rate of adenomatous polyps was 10.8%, 29.0% and 39.7% in subjects with low, average and elevated GRS, respectively, p-trend < 0.001. Higher GRS was also associated with early age diagnosis of adenomatous polyps, p < 0.001. In contrast, positive family history was not associated with risk and age of adenomatous polyps.

Conclusions

GRS was significantly associated with adenomatous polyps in subjects undergoing screening colonoscopy. This result may help in stratifying average risk patients and facilitating personalized colonoscopy screening strategies.

Comparison of Proteomic Technologies for Blood-Based Detection of Colorectal Cancer

Blood-based protein biomarkers are increasingly being explored as supplementary or efficient alternatives for population-based screening of colorectal cancer (CRC). The objective of the current study was to compare the diagnostic potential of proteins measured with different proteomic technologies. The concentrations of protein biomarkers were measured using proximity extension assays (PEAs), liquid chromatography/multiple reaction monitoring-mass spectrometry (LC/MRM-MS) and quantibody microarrays (QMAs) in plasma samples of 56 CRC patients and 99 participants free of neoplasms. In another approach, proteins were measured in serum samples of 30 CRC cases and 30 participants free of neoplasm using immunome full-length functional protein arrays (IpAs). From all the measurements, 9, 6, 35 and 14 protein biomarkers overlapped for comparative evaluation of (a) PEA and LC/MRM-MS, (b) PEA and QMA, (c) PEA and IpA, and (d) LC/MRM-MS and IpA measurements, respectively. Correlation analysis was performed, along with calculation of the area under the curve (AUC) for assessing the diagnostic potential of each biomarker. DeLong's test was performed to assess the differences in AUC. Evaluation of the nine biomarkers measured with PEA and LC/MRM-MS displayed correlation coefficients >+0.6, similar AUCs and DeLong's p-values indicating no differences in AUCs for biomarkers like insulin-like growth factor binding protein 2 (IGFBP2), matrix metalloproteinase 9 (MMP9) and serum paraoxonase lactonase 3 (PON3). Comparing six proteins measured with PEA and QMA showed good correlation and similar diagnostic performance for only one protein, growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF15). The comparison of 35 proteins measured with IpA and PEA and 14 proteins analyzed with IpA and LC/MRM-MS revealed poor concordance and comparatively better AUCs when measured with PEA and LC/MRM-MS. The comparison of different proteomic technologies suggests the superior performance of novel technologies like PEA and LC/MRM-MS over the assessed array-based technologies in blood-protein-based early detection of CRC.

Colorectal Cancer Risk by Genetic Variants in Populations With and Without Colonoscopy History

Background

Polygenic risk scores (PRS), which are derived from results of large genome-wide association studies, are increasingly propagated for colorectal cancer (CRC) risk stratification. The majority of studies included in the large genome-wide association studies consortia were conducted in the United States and Germany, where colonoscopy with detection and removal of polyps has been widely practiced over the last decades. We aimed to assess if and to what extent the history of colonoscopy with polypectomy may alter metrics of the predictive ability of PRS for CRC risk.

Methods

A PRS based on 140 single nucleotide polymorphisms was compared between 4939 CRC patients and 3797 control persons of the Darmkrebs: Chancen der Verhütung durch Screening (DACHS) study, a population-based case-control study conducted in Germany. Risk discrimination was quantified according to the history of colonoscopy and polypectomy by areas under the curves (AUCs) and their 95% confidence intervals (CIs). All statistical tests were 2-sided.

Results

AUCs and 95% CIs were higher among subjects without previous colonoscopy (AUC = 0.622, 95% CI = 0.606 to 0.639) than among those with previous colonoscopy and polypectomy (AUC = 0.568, 95% CI = 0.536 to 0.601; difference [Δ AUC] = 0.054, P = .004). Such differences were consistently seen in sex-specific groups (women: Δ AUC = 0.073, P = .02; men: Δ AUC = 0.046, P = .048) and age-specific groups (younger than 70 years: Δ AUC = 0.052, P = .07; 70 years or older: Δ AUC = 0.049, P = .045).

Conclusions

Predictive performance of PRS may be underestimated in populations with widespread use of colonoscopy. Future studies using PRS to develop CRC prediction models should carefully consider colonoscopy history to provide more accurate estimates.

Use of Polygenic Risk Scores to Select Screening Intervals After Negative Findings From Colonoscopy

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) could help to define starting ages for colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. However, the role of PRS in determining the length of screening interval after negative findings from colonoscopies is unclear. We aimed to evaluate CRC risk according to PRS and time since last negative colonoscopy.

METHODS

We collected data from 3827 cases and 2641 CRC-free controls in a population-based case-control study in Germany. We constructed a polygenic risk scoring system, based on 90 single-nucleotide polymorphisms, associated with risk of CRC in people of European descent. Participants were classified as having low, medium, or high genetic risk according to tertiles of PRSs among controls. Multiple logistic regression models were used to assess CRC risk according to PRS and time since last negative colonoscopy.

RESULTS

Compared to individuals without colonoscopy in the low PRS category, a 42%-85% lower risk of CRC was observed for individuals who had a negative finding from colonoscopy within 10 years. Beyond 10 years after a negative finding from colonoscopy, significantly lower risk only persisted for the low and medium PRS groups, but not for the high PRS group. Adjusted odds ratios were 0.44 (95% CI, 0.29-0.68), 0.51 (95% CI, 0.34-0.77), and 0.85 (95% CI, 0.58-1.23) in the low, medium, and high PRS group, respectively. Within any time interval, risks were lower for distal than for proximal CRCs.

CONCLUSIONS

Based on findings from a population-based case-control study, the recommended 10-year screening interval for colonoscopy may not need to be shortened among people with high PRSs, but could potentially be prolonged for people with low and medium PRSs. Studies are needed to address personalized time intervals for repeat colonoscopies in average-risk screening cohorts.

Individuals with common diseases but with a low polygenic risk score could be prioritized for rare variant screening

PURPOSE

Identifying rare genetic causes of common diseases can improve diagnostic and treatment strategies, but incurs high costs. We tested whether individuals with common disease and low polygenic risk score (PRS) for that disease generated from less expensive genome-wide genotyping data are more likely to carry rare pathogenic variants.

METHODS

We identified patients with one of five common complex diseases among 44,550 individuals who underwent exome sequencing in the UK Biobank. We derived PRS for these five diseases, and identified pathogenic rare variant heterozygotes. We tested whether individuals with disease and low PRS were more likely to carry rare pathogenic variants.

RESULTS

While rare pathogenic variants conferred, at most, 5.18-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 2.32-10.13) increased odds of disease, a standard deviation increase in PRS, at most, increased the odds of disease by 5.25-fold (95% CI: 5.06-5.45). Among diseased patients, a standard deviation decrease in the PRS was associated with, at most, 2.82-fold (95% CI: 1.14-7.46) increased odds of identifying rare variant heterozygotes.

CONCLUSION

Rare pathogenic variants were more prevalent among affected patients with a low PRS. Therefore, prioritizing individuals for sequencing who have disease but low PRS may increase the yield of sequencing studies to identify rare variant heterozygotes.

Impact of Personalized Genetic Breast Cancer Risk Estimation With Polygenic Risk Scores on Preventive Endocrine Therapy Intention and Uptake

Endocrine therapy is underutilized to reduce breast cancer incidence among women at increased risk. Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) assessing 77 breast cancer genetic susceptibility loci personalizes risk estimates. We examined effect of personalized PRS breast cancer risk prediction on intention to take and endocrine therapy uptake among women at increased risk. Eligible participants had a 10-year breast cancer risk ≥5% by Tyrer-Cuzick model [International Breast Cancer Intervention Study (IBIS)] or ≥3.0 % 5-year Gail Model risk with no breast cancer history or hereditary breast cancer syndrome. Breast cancer risk was estimated, endocrine therapy options were discussed, and endocrine therapy intent was assessed at baseline. After genotyping, PRS-updated breast cancer risk estimates, endocrine therapy options, and intent to take endocrine therapy were reassessed; endocrine therapy uptake was assessed during follow-up. From March 2016 to October 2017, 151 patients were enrolled [median (range) age, 56.1 (36.0-76.4 years)]. Median 10-year and lifetime IBIS risks were 7.9% and 25.3%. Inclusion of PRS increased lifetime IBIS breast cancer risk estimates for 81 patients (53.6%) and reduced risk for 70 (46.4%). Of participants with increased breast cancer risk by PRS, 39 (41.9%) had greater intent to take endocrine therapy; of those with decreased breast cancer risk by PRS, 28 (46.7%) had less intent to take endocrine therapy (P < 0.001). On multivariable regression, increased breast cancer risk by PRS was associated with greater intent to take endocrine therapy (P < 0.001). Endocrine therapy uptake was greater among participants with increased breast cancer risk by PRS (53.4%) than with decreased risk (20.9%; P < 0.001). PRS testing influenced intent to take and endocrine therapy uptake. Assessing PRS effect on endocrine therapy adherence is needed.Prevention Relevance: Counseling women at increased breast cancer risk using polygenic risk score (PRS) risk estimates can significantly impact preventive endocrine therapy uptake. Further development of PRS testing to personalize breast cancer risk assessments and endocrine therapy counselling may serve to potentially reduce the incidence of breast cancer in the future.

Cancer Predisposition Genes in Cancer-Free Families

Simple Summary

Familial clustering of cancer and identification of high- and low-risk cancer predisposition gene variants implicate that there are families that are at a high to moderate excess risk of cancer. We wanted to test genetically whether there are families protected from cancer. We whole-genome sequenced 51 elderly individuals without any personal or family history of cancer. We identified less high-risk loss-of-function variants in known and suggested cancer predisposition genes in these cancer-free individuals than in the general population. However, our results for low-risk variants were not conclusive. Our study suggests that random environmental causes of cancer are so dominant that a clear demarcation of cancer-free populations using genetic data may not be feasible. However, carrier identification of and counseling about prevalent high-risk cancer predisposition genes is useful.

Abstract

Familial clustering, twin concordance, and identification of high- and low-penetrance cancer predisposition variants support the idea that there are families that are at a high to moderate excess risk of cancer. To what extent there may be families that are protected from cancer is unknown. We wanted to test genetically whether cancer-free families share fewer breast, colorectal, and prostate cancer risk alleles than the population at large. We addressed this question by whole-genome sequencing (WGS) of 51 elderly cancer-free individuals whose numerous (ca. 1000) family members were found to be cancer-free (‘cancer-free families’, CFFs) based on face-to-face interviews. The average coverage of the 51 samples in the WGS was 42x. We compared cancer risk allele frequencies in cancer-free individuals with those in the general population available in public databases. The CFF members had fewer loss-of-function variants in suggested cancer predisposition genes compared to the ExAC data, and for high-risk cancer predisposition genes, no pathogenic variants were found in CFFs. For common low-penetrance breast, colorectal, and prostate cancer risk alleles, the results were not conclusive. The results suggest that, in line with twin and family studies, random environmental causes are so dominant that a clear demarcation of cancer-free populations using genetic data may not be feasible.

Genetic Colorectal Cancer and Adenoma Risk Variants Are Associated with Increasing Cumulative Adenoma Counts

BACKGROUND

The genetic basis for most individuals with high cumulative lifetime colonic adenomas is unknown. We investigated associations between known colorectal cancer-risk single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) and increasing cumulative adenoma counts.

METHODS

The Cooperative Studies Program #380 screening colonoscopy cohort includes 612 selected participants age 50 to 75 with genotyped blood samples and 10 years of clinical follow-up. We evaluated 41 published "colorectal cancer-risk SNPs" for associations with individual cumulative adenoma counts or having ≥10 cumulative adenomas. SNPs were analyzed singly or combined in a polygenic risk score (PRS). The PRS was constructed from eight published SNPs associated with multiple adenomas, termed "adenoma-risk SNPs."

RESULTS

Four colorectal cancer-risk SNPs were associated with increasing cumulative adenoma counts (P < 0.05): rs12241008 (gene: VTI1A), rs2423279 (BMP2/HAO1), rs3184504 (SH2B3), and rs961253 (FERMT1/BMP2), with risk allele risk ratios of 1.31, 1.29, 1.24, and 1.23, respectively. Three colorectal cancer-risk SNPs were associated with ≥10 cumulative adenomas (P < 0.05), with risk allele odds ratios of 2.09 (rs3184504), 2.30 (rs961253), and 1.94 (rs3217901). A weighted PRS comprised of adenoma-risk SNPs was associated with higher cumulative adenomas (weighted rate ratio = 1.57; P = 0.03).

CONCLUSIONS

In this mostly male veteran colorectal cancer screening cohort, several known colorectal cancer-risk SNPs were associated with increasing cumulative adenoma counts and the finding of ≥10 cumulative adenomas. In addition, an increasing burden of adenoma-risk SNPs, measured by a weighted PRS, was associated with higher cumulative adenomas.

IMPACT

Future work will seek to validate these findings in different populations and then augment current colorectal cancer risk prediction tools with precancerous, adenoma genetic data.

Genome-wide Modeling of Polygenic Risk Score in Colorectal Cancer Risk

Accurate colorectal cancer (CRC) risk prediction models are critical for identifying individuals at low and high risk of developing CRC, as they can then be offered targeted screening and interventions to address their risks of developing disease (if they are in a high-risk group) and avoid unnecessary screening and interventions (if they are in a low-risk group). As it is likely that thousands of genetic variants contribute to CRC risk, it is clinically important to investigate whether these genetic variants can be used jointly for CRC risk prediction. In this paper, we derived and compared different approaches to generating predictive polygenic risk scores (PRS) from genome-wide association studies (GWASs) including 55,105 CRC-affected case subjects and 65,079 control subjects of European ancestry. We built the PRS in three ways, using (1) 140 previously identified and validated CRC loci; (2) SNP selection based on linkage disequilibrium (LD) clumping followed by machine-learning approaches; and (3) LDpred, a Bayesian approach for genome-wide risk prediction. We tested the PRS in an independent cohort of 101,987 individuals with 1,699 CRC-affected case subjects. The discriminatory accuracy, calculated by the age- and sex-adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC), was highest for the LDpred-derived PRS (AUC = 0.654) including nearly 1.2 M genetic variants (the proportion of causal genetic variants for CRC assumed to be 0.003), whereas the PRS of the 140 known variants identified from GWASs had the lowest AUC (AUC = 0.629). Based on the LDpred-derived PRS, we are able to identify 30% of individuals without a family history as having risk for CRC similar to those with a family history of CRC, whereas the PRS based on known GWAS variants identified only top 10% as having a similar relative risk. About 90% of these individuals have no family history and would have been considered average risk under current screening guidelines, but might benefit from earlier screening. The developed PRS offers a way for risk-stratified CRC screening and other targeted interventions.

Estimation of Absolute Risk of Colorectal Cancer Based on Healthy Lifestyle, Genetic Risk, and Colonoscopy Status in a Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND & AIMS

Estimates of absolute risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) are needed to facilitate communication and better inform the public about the potentials and limits of cancer prevention.

METHODS

Using data from a large population-based case-control study in Germany (Darmkrebs: Chancen der Verhütung durch Screening [DACHS] study, which began in 2003) and population registry data, we calculated 30-year absolute risk estimates for development of CRC based on a healthy lifestyle score (derived from 5 modifiable lifestyle factors: smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, physical activity, and body fatness), a polygenic risk score (based on 90 single-nucleotide polymorphisms), and colonoscopy history.

RESULTS

We analyzed data from 4220 patients with CRC and 3338 individuals without CRC. Adherence to a healthy lifestyle and colonoscopy in the preceding 10 years were associated with a reduced relative risk of CRC in men and women. We observed a higher CRC risk in participants with high or intermediate genetic risk scores. For 50-year-old men and women without a colonoscopy, the absolute risk of CRC varied according to the polygenic risk score and the healthy lifestyle score (men, 3.5%-13.4%; women, 2.5%-10.6%). For 50-year-old men and women with a colonoscopy, the absolute risk of developing CRC was much lower but still varied according to the polygenic risk score and the healthy lifestyle score (men, 1.2%-4.8%; women, 0.9%-4.2%). Among all risk factor profiles, the 30-year absolute risk estimates consistently decreased with adherence to a healthy lifestyle.

CONCLUSIONS

In a population-based study, we found that a colonoscopy can drastically reduce the absolute risk of CRC and that the genetically predetermined risk of CRC can be further reduced by adherence to a healthy lifestyle. Our results show the magnitude of CRC prevention possible through colonoscopy and lifestyle at a predefined genetic risk. This observational study has been registered in the German Clinical Trials Register (DRKS00011793), which is a primary registry in the World Health Organization Registry Network.

Risk-Adapted Cutoffs in Colorectal Cancer Screening by Fecal Immunochemical Tests

INTRODUCTION

Fecal immunochemical tests (FITs) for hemoglobin are increasingly used in colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. The use of uniform positivity thresholds (cutoffs) within screening populations is expected to imply lower positive predictive values (PPVs) and higher numbers of colonoscopies needed (numbers needed to scope [NNSs]) to detect advanced neoplasms among screening participants at lower risk compared with those at higher risk. We aimed to assess such variation and its potential implications in a large screening cohort.

METHODS

A quantitative FIT (FOB Gold; Sentinel Diagnostics, Milan, Italy) was conducted in fecal samples collected by 4,332 participants of screening colonoscopy before bowel preparation. Participants were classified into 3 risk groups (low, medium, and high) by tertiles of a previously derived risk-factor-based risk score. We determined the variation of PPVs and NNSs for detecting advanced neoplasms (i.e., CRC or advanced adenoma) when using the same FIT cutoffs and variation of FIT cutoffs that would yield uniform PPVs across risk groups.

RESULTS

When a fixed FIT cutoff of 10 μg/g was used, the PPV increased from 23.3% to 41.8% from the low- to the high-risk group, with NNS decreasing from 4.3 to 2.4 (P < 0.001). Similar variations of PPVs and NNSs across risk groups were observed at higher FIT cutoffs. When risk group-specific cutoffs were defined to achieve fixed PPVs of 25%, 30%, and 35% across all risk groups, cutoffs varied from 5.3 to 11.4, 6.5 to 18.7, and 7.5 to 31.0 μg hemoglobin/g feces, respectively, between high- and low-risk groups (P < 0.05 for all differences).

DISCUSSION

Using risk-adapted cutoffs may help to achieve target levels of PPV and NNS and might be an option to consider for personalized FIT-based CRC screening.

External Validation of Risk Prediction Models Incorporating Common Genetic Variants for Incident Colorectal Cancer Using UK Biobank

The aim of this study was to compare and externally validate risk scores developed to predict incident colorectal cancer that include common genetic variants (SNPs), with or without established lifestyle/environmental (questionnaire-based/classical/phenotypic) risk factors. We externally validated 23 risk models from a previous systematic review in 443,888 participants ages 37 to 73 from the UK Biobank cohort who had 6-year prospective follow-up, no prior history of colorectal cancer, and data for incidence of colorectal cancer through linkage to national cancer registries. There were 2,679 (0.6%) cases of incident colorectal cancer. We assessed model discrimination using the area under the operating characteristic curve (AUC) and relative risk calibration. The AUC of models including only SNPs increased with the number of included SNPs and was similar in men and women: the model by Huyghe with 120 SNPs had the highest AUC of 0.62 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.59-0.64] in women and 0.64 (95% CI, 0.61-0.66) in men. Adding phenotypic risk factors without age improved discrimination in men but not in women. Adding phenotypic risk factors and age increased discrimination in all cases (P < 0.05), with the best performing models including SNPs, phenotypic risk factors, and age having AUCs between 0.64 and 0.67 in women and 0.67 and 0.71 in men. Relative risk calibration varied substantially across the models. Among middle-aged people in the UK, existing polygenic risk scores discriminate moderately well between those who do and do not develop colorectal cancer over 6 years. Consideration should be given to exploring the feasibility of incorporating genetic and lifestyle/environmental information in any future stratified colorectal cancer screening program.

A New Comprehensive Colorectal Cancer Risk Prediction Model Incorporating Family History, Personal Characteristics, and Environmental Factors

PURPOSE

Reducing colorectal cancer incidence and mortality through early detection would improve efficacy if targeted. We developed a colorectal cancer risk prediction model incorporating personal, family, genetic, and environmental risk factors to enhance prevention.

METHODS

A familial risk profile (FRP) was calculated to summarize individuals' risk based on detailed cancer family history (FH), family structure, probabilities of mutation in major colorectal cancer susceptibility genes, and a polygenic component. We developed risk models, including individuals' FRP or binary colorectal cancer FH, and colorectal cancer risk factors collected at enrollment using population-based colorectal cancer cases (N = 4,445) and controls (N = 3,967) recruited by the Colon Cancer Family Registry Cohort (CCFRC). Model validation used CCFRC follow-up data for population-based (N = 12,052) and clinic-based (N = 5,584) relatives with no cancer history at recruitment to assess model calibration [expected/observed rate ratio (E/O)] and discrimination [area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC)].

RESULTS

The E/O [95% confidence interval (CI)] for FRP models for population-based relatives were 1.04 (0.74-1.45) for men and 0.86 (0.64-1.20) for women, and for clinic-based relatives were 1.15 (0.87-1.58) for men and 1.04 (0.76-1.45) for women. The age-adjusted AUCs (95% CI) for FRP models for population-based relatives were 0.69 (0.60-0.78) for men and 0.70 (0.62-0.77) for women, and for clinic-based relatives were 0.77 (0.69-0.84) for men and 0.68 (0.60-0.76) for women. The incremental values of AUC for FRP over FH models for population-based relatives were 0.08 (0.01-0.15) for men and 0.10 (0.04-0.16) for women, and for clinic-based relatives were 0.11 (0.05-0.17) for men and 0.11 (0.06-0.17) for women.

CONCLUSIONS

Both models calibrated well. The FRP-based model provided better risk stratification and risk discrimination than the FH-based model.

IMPACT

Our findings suggest detailed FH may be useful for targeted risk-based screening and clinical management.

Performance of individual and joint risk stratification by an environmental risk score and a genetic risk score in a colorectal cancer screening setting

Early detection of colorectal neoplasms can reduce the disease burden of colorectal cancer by timely intervention of individuals at high risk. Our aim was to evaluate a joint environmental-genetic risk score as a risk stratification tool for early detection of advanced colorectal neoplasm (ACRN). Known environmental risk factors and high-risk genetic loci were summarized into risk scores for ACRN in 1014 eligible participants of a screening study. The performances of single and joint environmental-genetic scores were evaluated with estimates and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of the absolute risk, relative risk and predictive ability using the area under the curve (AUC). Individuals with higher environmental risk scores showed increasing ACRN risk, with 3.1-fold for intermediate risk and 4.8-fold for very high risk, compared to the very low environmental risk group. Similarly, individuals with higher genetic risk scores showed increasing ACRN risk, with 2.2-fold for intermediate risk and 3.5-fold for very high risk, compared to the lowest genetic risk group. Moreover, the joint environmental-genetic score improved the ACRN risk stratification and showed higher predictive values (AUC = 0.64; 95%CI = 0.60-0.67) with substantial difference (p = 0.0002) compared to the single environmental score (0.58; 0.55-0.62). The integration of environmental and genetic factors looks promising for improving targeting individuals at high-risk of colorectal neoplasm. Applications in practical screening programs require optimization with additional genetic and other biomarkers involved in colorectal carcinogenesis.

Colorectal cancer susceptibility variants and risk of conventional adenomas and serrated polyps: results from three cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Increasing evidence suggests that conventional adenomas (CAs) and serrated polyps (SPs) represent two distinct groups of precursor lesions for colorectal cancer (CRC). The influence of common genetic variants on risk of CAs and SPs remain largely unknown.

METHODS

Among 27 426 participants within three prospective cohort studies, we created a weighted genetic risk score (GRS) based on 40 CRC-related single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) identified in previous genome-wide association studies; and we examined the association of GRS (per one standard deviation increment) with risk of CAs, SPs and synchronous CAs and SPs, by multivariable logistic regression. We also analysed individual variants in the secondary analysis.

RESULTS

During 18-20 years of follow-up, we documented 2952 CAs, 1585 SPs and 794 synchronous CAs and SPs. Higher GRS was associated with increased risk of CAs [odds ratio (OR) = 1.17, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.12-1.21] and SPs (OR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.03-1.14), with a stronger association for CAs than SPs (Pheterogeneity=0.01). An even stronger association was found for patients with synchronous CAs and SPs (OR = 1.32), advanced CAs (OR = 1.22) and multiple CAs (OR = 1.25). Different sets of variants were associated with CAs and SPs, with a Spearman correlation coefficient of 0.02 between the ORs associating the 40 SNPs with the two lesions. After correcting for multiple testing, three variants were associated with CAs (rs3802842, rs6983267 and rs7136702) and two with SPs (rs16892766 and rs4779584).

CONCLUSIONS

Common genetic variants play a potential role in the conventional and serrated pathways of CRC. Different sets of variants are identified for the two pathways, further supporting the aetiological heterogeneity of CRC.

Establishing a valid approach for estimating familial risk of cancer explained by common genetic variants

We critically examined existing approaches for the estimation of the excess familial risk of cancer that can be attributed to identified common genetic risk variants and propose an alternative, more straightforward approach for calculating this proportion using well-established epidemiological methodology. We applied the underlying equations of the traditional approaches and the new epidemiological approach for colorectal cancer (CRC) in a large population-based case-control study in Germany with 4,447 cases and 3,480 controls, who were recruited from 2003 to 2016 and for whom interview, medical and genomic data were available. Having a family history of CRC (FH) was associated with a 1.77-fold risk increase in our study population (95% CI 1.52-2.07). Traditional approaches yielded estimates of the FH-associated risk explained by 97 common genetics variants from 9.6% to 23.1%, depending on various assumptions. Our alternative approach resulted in smaller and more consistent estimates of this proportion, ranging from 5.4% to 14.3%. Commonly employed methods may lead to strongly divergent and possibly exaggerated estimates of excess familial risk of cancer explained by associated known common genetic variants. Our results suggest that familial risk and risk associated with known common genetic variants might reflect two complementary major sources of risk.

Head-to-Head Comparison of Family History of Colorectal Cancer and a Genetic Risk Score for Colorectal Cancer Risk Stratification

OBJECTIVES

Family history (FH) is associated with increased risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). We aimed to examine the potential for CRC risk stratification by known common genetic variants beyond FH in a large population-based case-control study from Germany.

METHODS

Four thousand four hundred forty-seven cases and 3,480 controls recruited in 2003-2016 were included for whom comprehensive interview, medical, and genomic data were available. Associations with CRC risk were estimated from multiple logistic regression models for FH and a genetic risk score (GRS) based on 90 previously identified risk variants.

RESULTS

CRC in a first-degree relative was associated with a 1.71-fold (95% confidence interval 1.47-2.00) increase in CRC risk. A higher risk increase (odds ratio 2.06, 95% confidence interval 1.78-2.39) was estimated for the GRS when it was dichotomized at a cutoff yielding the same positivity rate as FH among controls. Furthermore, the GRS provides substantial additional risk stratification in both people with and especially without FH. Equal or even slightly higher risks were observed for participants without FH with a GRS in the upper 20% compared with participants with FH with a GRS below median. The observed patterns were confirmed in a replication study.

DISCUSSION

In contrast to common perception, known genetic variants do not primarily reflect some minor share of the familial excess risk of CRC, but rather reflect a substantial share of risk independent of FH.

Risk Prediction Models for Colorectal Cancer Incorporating Common Genetic Variants: A Systematic Review

Colorectal cancer screening reduces colorectal cancer incidence and mortality. Risk models based on phenotypic variables have relatively good discrimination in external validation and may improve efficiency of screening. Models incorporating genetic variables may perform better. In this review, we updated our previous review by searching Medline and EMBASE from the end date of that review (January 2014) to February 2019 to identify models incorporating at least one SNP and applicable to asymptomatic individuals in the general population. We identified 23 new models, giving a total of 29. Of those in which the SNP selection was on the basis of published genome-wide association studies, in external or split-sample validation the AUROC was 0.56 to 0.57 for models that included SNPs alone, 0.61 to 0.63 for SNPs in combination with other risk factors, and 0.56 to 0.70 when age was included. Calibration was only reported for four. The addition of SNPs to other risk factors increases discrimination by 0.01 to 0.06. Public health modeling studies suggest that, if determined by risk models, the range of starting ages for screening would be several years greater than using family history alone. Further validation and calibration studies are needed alongside modeling studies to assess the population-level impact of introducing genetic risk-based screening programs.

Head-to-Head Comparison of the Performance of 17 Risk Models for Predicting Presence of Advanced Neoplasms in Colorectal Cancer Screening

OBJECTIVES

Many risk scores have been proposed to predict presence of advanced colorectal neoplasms, but a comprehensive comparison conducted in the same population is sparse. The aim of this study was to evaluate and directly compare the diagnostic performance of published risk prediction models for advanced colorectal neoplasms.

METHODS

Data were drawn from 2 cohorts of subjects undergoing screening colonoscopy in Germany, i.e., KolosSal (n = 16,195) and BliTz (n = 7,444). Absolute risks and relative risks were generated for the presence of at least 1 advanced neoplasm, taking the lowest risk group as the reference group. Performance of risk models was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and compared by the net reclassification improvement.

RESULTS

The 2 cohorts included 1,917 (11.8%) and 848 (11.4%) participants with advanced neoplasm, respectively. Absolute risks were mostly between 5% and 10% among participants in the lowest risk group and between 15% and 20% among participants in the highest risk group, and relative risks mostly ranged from 2.0 to 4.0 across the risk models in both cohorts. The AUCs ranged from 0.58 to 0.65 in KolosSal and from 0.57 to 0.61 in BliTz for all risk scores. Compared to models with lower AUC, classification was significantly improved in most models with higher AUC.

DISCUSSION

Risk models for advanced colorectal neoplasms generally yielded modest discriminatory power, despite some variation in performance between models. Future studies should evaluate the performance of these risk models in racially diverse populations and investigate possible extensions, such as combination with polygenic risk scores.

Whole-blood DNA Methylation Markers for Risk Stratification in Colorectal Cancer Screening: A Systematic Review

DNA methylation profiles within whole-blood samples have been reported to be associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) occurrence and might enable risk stratification for CRC. We systematically reviewed and summarized studies addressing the association of whole-blood DNA methylation markers and risk of developing CRC or its precursors. We searched PubMed and ISI Web of Knowledge to identify relevant studies published until 12th November 2018. Two reviewers independently extracted data on study population characteristics, candidate genes, methylation measurement methods, methylation levels of patients in comparison to healthy controls, p-values, and odds ratios of the markers. Overall, 19 studies reporting 102 methylation markers for risk assessment of colorectal neoplasms met our inclusion criteria. The studies mostly used Methylation Specific Polymerase Chain Reaction (MS-PCR) for assessing the methylation status of a defined set of genes. Only two studies applied array-based genome-wide assays to assess the methylation levels. Five studies incorporated panels consisting of 2–10 individual methylation markers to assess their potential for stratifying the risk of developing colorectal neoplasms. However, none of these associations was confirmed in an independent cohort. In conclusion, whole-blood DNA methylation markers may be useful as biomarkers for risk stratification in CRC screening, but reproducible risk prediction algorithms are yet to be established by large scale epigenome-wide studies with thorough validation of results in prospective study cohorts including large screening populations. The possibilities of enhancing predictive power by combining methylation data with polygenetic risk scores and environmental risk factors need to be explored.

Translating genomic risk into an early detection strategy for sarcoma

Sarcomas have a strong genetic etiology, and the study of families affected by sarcomas has informed much of what we now understand of modern cancer biology. The recent emergence of powerful genetic technologies has led to astonishing reductions in costs and increased throughput. In the clinic, these technologies are revealing a previously unappreciated and rich landscape of genetic cancer risk. In addition to both known and new cancer risk mutations, genomic tools are cataloguing complex and polygenic risk patterns, collectively explaining between 15-25% of apparently sporadic sarcoma cases. The impact on clinical management is exemplified by Li-Fraumeni Syndrome, the most penetrant sarcoma syndrome. Whole body magnetic resonance imaging can identify surgically resectable cancers in up to one in ten individuals with Li-Fraumeni Syndrome. Taken together, parallel developments in genomics, therapeutics and imaging technologies will drive closer engagement between genetics and multidisciplinary care of the sarcoma patient in the 21st century.

Association study of genetic variation of lncRNA MALAT1 with carcinogenesis of colorectal cancer

Introduction

Colorectal cancer (CRC) remains a major public health concern worldwide. However, the detailed molecular mechanisms of CRC remain poorly understood.

Methods

In the current study, we evaluated associations of four genetic variants located in the promoter and gene region of long noncoding RNAs metastasis-associated lung adenocarcinoma transcript 1 (lncRNA MALAT1) with CRC susceptibility among a Chinese population with 966 CRC cases and 988 healthy controls, using a two-stage, case–control study design (400 CRC cases and 400 controls in stage 1, and 566 CRC cases and 588 controls in stage 2).

Results

We found that the minor alleles of rs619586 (OR=0.73; 95% CI=0.60–0.88; P=0.001) and rs1194338 (OR=0.80; 95% CI=0.70–0.92; P=0.001) were significantly associated with decreased CRC susceptibility. Compared with those with rs619586 −AA genotype, the risk of CRC was significantly lower in individuals with AG genotype (OR=0.76; 95% CI=0.61–0.95) and GG genotype (OR=0.46; 95% CI=0.23–0.90). Compared with those with rs1194338 −CC genotype, the risk of CRC was significantly lower in individuals with AC genotype (OR=0.79; 95% CI=0.65–0.95) and AA genotype (OR=0.68; 95% CI=0.51–0.89).

Conclusion

Taken together, our findings provided strong evidence for the hypothesis that genetic variants in lncRNA MALAT1 might contribute to the carcinogenesis of CRC.

The colorectal cancer epidemic: challenges and opportunities for primary, secondary and tertiary prevention

Colorectal cancer (CRC) is both one of the most common and one of the most preventable cancers globally, with powerful but strongly missed potential for primary, secondary and tertiary prevention. CRC incidence has traditionally been the highest in affluent Western countries, but it is now increasing rapidly with economic development in many other parts of the world. CRC shares several main risk factors, such as smoking, excessive alcohol consumption, physical inactivity and being overweight, with other common diseases; therefore, primary prevention efforts to reduce these risk factors are expected to have multiple beneficial effects that extend beyond CRC prevention, and should have high public health impact. A sizeable reduction in the incidence and mortality of CRC can also be achieved by offering effective screening tests, such as faecal immunochemical tests, flexible sigmoidoscopy and colonoscopy, in organised screening programmes which have been implemented in an increasing number of countries. Countries with early and high uptake rates of effective screening have exhibited major declines in CRC incidence and mortality, in contrast to most other countries. Finally, increasing evidence shows that the prognosis and quality of life of CRC patients can be substantially improved by tertiary prevention measures, such as the administration of low-dose aspirin and the promotion of physical activity.