Earlier phenology of a nonnative plant increases impacts on native competitors

A Trip Back Home: Resistance to Herbivores of Native and Non-Native Plant Populations of Datura stramonium

When colonizing new ranges, plant populations may benefit from the absence of the checks imposed by the enemies, herbivores, and pathogens that regulated their numbers in their original range. Therefore, rates of plant damage or infestation by natural enemies are expected to be lower in the new range. Exposing both non-native and native plant populations in the native range, where native herbivores are present, can be used to test whether resistance mechanisms have diverged between populations. Datura stramonium is native to the Americas but widely distributed in Spain, where populations show lower herbivore damage than populations in the native range. We established experiments in two localities in the native range (Mexico), exposing two native and two non-native D. stramonium populations to natural herbivores. Plant performance differed between the localities, as did the abundance of the main specialist herbivore, Lema daturaphila. In Teotihuacán, where L. daturaphila is common, native plants had significantly more adult beetles and herbivore damage than non-native plants. The degree of infestation by the specialist seed predator Trichobaris soror differed among populations and between sites, but the native Ticumán population always had the lowest level of infestation. The Ticumán population also had the highest concentration of the alkaloid scopolamine. Scopolamine was negatively related to the number of eggs deposited by L. daturaphila in Teotihuacán. There was among-family variation in herbivore damage (resistance), alkaloid content (scopolamine), and infestation by L. daturaphila and T. soror, indicating genetic variation and potential for further evolution. Although native and non-native D. stramonium populations have not yet diverged in plant resistance/constitutive defense, the differences between ranges (and the two experimental sites) in the type and abundance of herbivores suggest that further research is needed on the role of resource availability and adaptive plasticity, specialized metabolites (induced, constitutive), and the relationship between genealogical origin and plant defense in both ranges.

Projected Impacts of Climate Change on the Range Expansion of the Invasive Straggler Daisy (Calyptocarpus vialis) in the Northwestern Indian Himalayan Region

Human-induced climate change modifies plant species distribution, reorganizing ecologically suitable habitats for invasive species. In this study, we identified the environmental factors that are important for the spread of Calyptocarpus vialis, an emerging invasive weed in the northwestern Indian Himalayan Region (IHR), along with possible habitats of the weed under current climatic scenarios and potential range expansion under several representative concentration pathways (RCPs) using MaxEnt niche modeling. The prediction had a high AUC (area under the curve) value of 0.894 ± 0.010 and a remarkable correlation between the test and expected omission rates. BIO15 (precipitation seasonality; 38.8%) and BIO1 (annual mean temperature; 35.7%) had the greatest impact on the probable distribution of C. vialis, followed by elevation (11.7%) and landcover (6.3%). The findings show that, unlike the current situation, "high" and "very high" suitability areas would rise while less-suited habitats would disappear. All RCPs (2.6, 4.5, 6.0, and 8.5) indicate the expansion of C. vialis in "high" suitability areas, but RCP 4.5 predicts contraction, and RCPs 2.6, 6.0, and 8.5 predict expansion in "very high" probability areas. The current distribution of C. vialis is 21.59% of the total area of the state, with "medium" to "high" invasion suitability, but under the RCP 8.5 scenario, it might grow by 10% by 2070. The study also reveals that C. vialis may expand its niche at both lower and higher elevations. This study clarifies how bioclimatic and topographic factors affect the dispersion of invasive species in the biodiverse IHR. Policymakers and land-use managers can utilize the data to monitor C. vialis hotspots and develop scientifically sound management methods.

Stage-mediated priority effects and season lengths shape long-term competition dynamics

The relative arrival time of species can affect their interactions and thus determine which species persist in a community. Although this phenomenon, called priority effect, is widespread in natural communities, it is unclear how it depends on the length of growing season. Using a seasonal stage-structured model, we show that differences in stages of interacting species could generate priority effects by altering the strength of stabilizing and equalizing coexistence mechanisms, changing outcomes between exclusion, coexistence and positive frequency dependence. However, these priority effects are strongest in systems with just one or a few generations per season and diminish in systems where many overlapping generations per season dilute the importance of stage-specific interactions. Our model reveals a novel link between the number of generations in a season and the consequences of priority effects, suggesting that consequences of phenological shifts driven by climate change should depend on specific life histories of organisms.

The fitness value of ecological information in a variable world

Information processing is increasingly recognized as a fundamental component of life in variable environments, including the evolved use of environmental cues, biomolecular networks, and social learning. Despite this, ecology lacks a quantitative framework for understanding how population, community, and ecosystem dynamics depend on information processing. Here, we review the rationale and evidence for 'fitness value of information' (FVOI), and synthesize theoretical work in ecology, information theory, and probability behind this general mathematical framework. The FVOI quantifies how species' per capita population growth rates can depend on the use of information in their environment. FVOI is a breakthrough approach to linking information processing and ecological and evolutionary outcomes in a changing environment, addressing longstanding questions about how information mediates the effects of environmental change and species interactions.

Seasonal structure of interactions enhances multidimensional stability of mutualistic networks

Community ecologists have made great advances in understanding how natural communities can be both diverse and stable by studying communities as interaction networks. However, focus has been on interaction networks aggregated over time, neglecting the consequences of the seasonal organization of interactions (hereafter 'seasonal structure') for community stability. Here, we extended previous theoretical findings on the topic in two ways: (i) by integrating empirical seasonal structure of 11 plant–hummingbird communities into dynamic models, and (ii) by tackling multiple facets of network stability together. We show that, in a competition context, seasonal structure enhances community stability by allowing diverse and resilient communities while preserving their robustness to species extinctions. The positive effects of empirical seasonal structure on network stability vanished when using randomized seasonal structures, suggesting that eco-evolutionary dynamics produce stabilizing seasonal structures. We also show that the effects of seasonal structure on community stability are mainly mediated by changes in network structure and productivity, suggesting that the seasonal structure of a community is an important and yet neglected aspect in the diversity–stability and diversity–productivity debates.

Flowering time advances since the 1970s in a sagebrush steppe community: Implications for management and restoration

Climate change is widely known to affect plant phenology, but little is known about how these impacts manifest in the widespread sagebrush ecosystem of the Western United States, which supports a number of wildlife species of concern. Shifts in plant phenology can trigger consequences for the plants themselves as well as the communities of consumers that depend upon them. We assembled historical observations of first-flowering dates for 51 species collected in the 1970s and 1980s in a montane sagebrush community in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem and compared these to contemporary phenological observations targeting the same species and locations (2016-2019). We also assembled regional climate data (average spring temperature, day of spring snowmelt, and growing degree days) and tested the relationship between first-flowering time and these variables for each species. We observed the largest change in phenology in early-spring flowers, which, as a group, bloomed on average 17 days earlier, and as much as 36 days earlier, in the contemporary data set. Mid-summer flowers bloomed on average 10 days earlier, nonnative species 15 days earlier, and berry-producing shrubs 5 days earlier, while late summer flowering plants did not shift. The greatest correlates of early-spring and mid-summer flowering were average spring temperature and day of snowmelt, which was 21 days earlier, on average, in 2016-2019 relative to the 1973-1978 observations. The shifts in flowering phenology that we observed could indicate developing asynchronies or novel synchronies of these plant resources and wildlife species of conservation concern, including Greater Sage-grouse, whose nesting success is tied to availability of spring forbs; grizzly bears, which rely heavily on berries for their fall diet; and pollinators. This underscores the importance of maintaining a diverse portfolio of native plants in terms of species composition, genetics, phenological responsiveness to climatic cues, and ecological importance to key wildlife and pollinator species. Redundancy within ecological niches may also be important considering that species roles in the community may shift as climate change affects them differently. These considerations are particularly relevant to restoration and habitat-enhancement projects in sagebrush communities across western North America.

Effect of drought and nutrient availability on invaded plant communities in a semi-arid ecosystem

Ecosystem functions are heavily dependent on the functional composition of the plant community, i.e., the functional traits of plants forming the community. This, on the one hand, depends on plant occurrence, but on the other hand, depends on the intraspecific variability of functional traits of the species, which are influenced by climate and nutrient availability and affected by plant–plant interactions. To illustrate that, we studied the effects of drought and nitrogen addition (+ N), two important abiotic variables which are changing with ongoing global change, as well as their combined effect on the functional responses of grassland communities in semi‐arid environments of Northern Africa comprising of natural and invasive species. We conducted an experiment where we planted three native species and one invasive plant species in artificial communities of five individuals per species per plot. We exposed these communities to four different treatments: a drought treatment, an N‐addition treatment, the combination between drought and N‐addition, as well as a control. To assess the performance of plants within treatments, we measured selected plant functional traits (plant height, specific leaf area [SLA], leaf dry matter content [LDMC], N content of the leaves [N_mass], specific root length [SRL], and root diameter) for all individuals occurring in our plots, and additionally assessed the above and belowground biomass for each plant individual. We found that the invasive species showed a higher performance (higher biomass accumulation, taller plants, higher SLA, N_mass, SRL, and root diameter as well as lower LDMC) than the native species under drought conditions. The invasive species was especially successful with the combined impact of drought + N, which is a likely scenario in ongoing global change for our research area. Thus, plant functional traits might be a key factor for the invasion success of plant species which will be even more pronounced under ongoing global change.

Post-introduction evolution of a rapid life-history strategy in a newly invasive plant

A central question in invasion biology is whether adaptive trait evolution following species introduction promotes invasiveness. A growing number of common-garden experiments document phenotypic differences between native- and introduced-range plants, suggesting that adaptive evolution in the new range may indeed contribute to the success of invasive plants. Yet these studies are often subject to methodological pitfalls, resulting in weak evidence for post-introduction adaptive trait evolution and leaving uncertain its role in the invasion process. In a common-garden glasshouse study, we compared the growth, life-history, and reproductive traits of 35 native- and introduced-range Polygonum cespitosum populations. We used complementary approaches including climate-matching, standardizing parental conditions, selection analysis, and testing for trait-environment relationships to determine whether traits that increase invasiveness adaptively evolved in the species' new range. We found that the majority of introduced-range populations exhibited a novel trait syndrome consisting of a fast-paced life history and concomitant sparse, reduced growth form. Selection analysis confirmed that this trait syndrome led to markedly higher fitness (propagule production) over a limited growing season characteristic of regions within the introduced range. Additionally, several growth and reproductive traits showed temperature-based clines consistent with adaptive evolution in the new range. Combined, these results indicate that, subsequent to its introduction to North America over 100 generations ago, P. cespitosum has evolved key traits that maximize propagule production. These changes may in part explain the species' recent transition to invasiveness, illustrating how post-introduction evolution may contribute to the invasion process.

Invasive grass indirectly alters seasonal patterns in seed predation

Invasive species threaten ecosystems globally, but their impacts can be cryptic when they occur indirectly. Invader phenology can also differ from that of native species, potentially causing seasonality in invader impacts. Yet, it is unclear if invader phenology can drive seasonal patterns in indirect effects. We used a field experiment to test if an invasive grass (Imperata cylindrica) caused seasonal indirect effects by altering rodent foraging and seed predation patterns through time. Using seeds from native longleaf pine (Pinus palustris), we found seed predation was 25% greater, on average, in invaded than control plots, but this effect varied by season. Seed predation was 24-157% greater in invaded plots during spring and autumn months, but invasion had no effect on seed predation in other months. One of the largest effects occurred in October when longleaf pine seeds are dispersed, suggesting potential effects on tree regeneration. Thus, seasonal patterns in indirect effects from invaders may cause underappreciated impacts on ecological communities.

Competition contributes to both warm and cool range edges

Competition plays an important role in shaping species’ spatial distributions. However, it remains unclear where and how competition regulates species’ range limits. In a field experiment with plants originating from low and high elevations and conducted across an elevation gradient in the Swiss Alps, we find that both lowland and highland species can better persist in the presence of competition within, rather than beyond, their elevation ranges. These findings suggest that competition helps set both lower and upper elevation range limits of these species. Furthermore, the reduced ability of pairs of lowland or highland species to coexist beyond their range edges is mainly driven by diminishing niche differences; changes in both niche differences and relative fitness differences drive weakening competitive dominance of lowland over highland species with increasing elevation. These results highlight the need to account for competitive interactions and investigate underlying coexistence mechanisms to understand current and future species distributions.

Using a field experiment, this study shows that both lowland and alpine plant species experience greater competitive effects and a reduced ability to coexist towards their elevation range edges due to increased niche overlap and competitive inequality. These findings suggest competition helps set both lower and upper elevation range limits.

Effects of species interactions on the potential for evolution at species' range limits

Species’ ranges are limited by both ecological and evolutionary constraints. While there is a growing appreciation that ecological constraints include interactions among species, like competition, we know relatively little about how interactions contribute to evolutionary constraints at species' niche and range limits. Building on concepts from community ecology and evolutionary biology, we review how biotic interactions can influence adaptation at range limits by impeding the demographic conditions that facilitate evolution (which we term a ‘demographic pathway to adaptation’), and/or by imposing evolutionary trade-offs with the abiotic environment (a ‘trade-offs pathway’). While theory for the former is well-developed, theory for the trade-offs pathway is not, and empirical evidence is scarce for both. Therefore, we develop a model to illustrate how fitness trade-offs along biotic and abiotic gradients could affect the potential for range expansion and niche evolution following ecological release. The model shows that which genotypes are favoured at species' range edges can depend strongly on the biotic context and the nature of fitness trade-offs. Experiments that characterize trade-offs and properly account for biotic context are needed to predict which species will expand their niche or range in response to environmental change.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Species’ ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)’.

Asymmetric competition over space use and territory between native brown trout (Salmo trutta) and invasive brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis)

Interference competition over food and territory can shape population structure and habitat use within and between species. The introduction of invasive species often leads to novel competitive interactions over shared resources and invaders can eventually exclude the native species from preferred habitats. Invasive brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) introduced to northern Europe have excluded native brown trout (Salmo trutta) from numerous headwater streams. The fact that invasive brook trout can displace the more aggressive brown trout is puzzling. However, the earlier spawning and hatching of brook trout, compared to brown trout, may lead to unequal competition due to size advantage and prior resident status of brook trout at the fry stage. In this study, we examine the effect of competition between brown trout and brook trout using the natural size distribution of the two species. In two consecutive experiments, we first measured space use and feeding of a fry (age 0+) in the presence of a juvenile (age 1+). In experiment 2, we assessed territorial interactions between the species at the fry stage (age 0+) and if smaller brown trout could compensate the disadvantage by manipulating residence duration. Fry of brook trout feed sooner and spend more time close to the larger individual than brown trout fry. We also found that brook trout fry won most territorial contests against brown trout, and that increased residence duration led to longer and more aggressive interactions. The results suggest that smaller brown trout are displaced to suboptimal habitats in the presence of a larger brook trout. Therefore, the later emergence from gravel beds resulting in the naturally occurring size disadvantage of brown trout at the fry stage may lead to unequal territorial interactions that could explain why brown trout are displaced from preferred habitats in sympatry with brook trout.

Competition for water and species coexistence in phenologically structured annual plant communities

Both competition for water and phenological variation are important determinants of plant community structure, but ecologists lack a synthetic theory for how they affect coexistence outcomes. We developed an analytically tractable model of water competition for Mediterranean annual communities and demonstrated that variation in phenology alone can maintain high diversity in spatially homogenous assemblages of water-limited plants. We modelled a system where all water arrives early in the season and species vary in their ability to grow under drying conditions. As a consequence, species differ in growing season length and compete by shortening the growing season of their competitors. This model replicates and offers mechanistic explanations for patterns observed in empirical studies of how phenology influences coexistence among Mediterranean annuals. Additionally, we found that a decreasing, concave-up trade-off between growth rate and access to water can maintain high diversity under simple but realistic assumptions. High diversity is possible because: (1) later plants escape competition after their earlier season competitors have gone to seed and (2) early-season species are more than compensated for their shortened growing season by a growth rate advantage. Together, these mechanisms provide an explanation for how phenologically variable annual plant species might coexist when competing only for water.

Spring and autumn phenology in an understory herb are uncorrelated and driven by different factors

PREMISE

Climate warming has altered the start and end of growing seasons in temperate regions. Ultimately, these changes occur at the individual level, but little is known about how previous seasonal life-history events, temperature, and plant-resource state simultaneously influence the spring and autumn phenology of plant individuals.

METHODS

We studied the relationships between the timing of leaf-out and shoot senescence over 3 years in a natural population of the long-lived understory herb Lathyrus vernus and investigated the effects of spring temperature, plant size, reproductive status, and grazing on spring and autumn phenology.

RESULTS

The timing of leaf-out and senescence were consistent within individuals among years. Leaf-out and senescence were not correlated with each other within years. Larger plants leafed out and senesced later, and size had no effect on growing season length. Reproductive plants leafed out earlier and had longer growing seasons than nonreproductive plants. Grazing had no detectable effects on phenology. Colder spring temperatures delayed senescence in two of three study years.

CONCLUSIONS

The timing of seasonal events, such as leaf-out and senescence in plants can be expressed largely independently within and among seasons and are influenced by different factors. Growing season start and length can often be dependent on plant condition and reproductive status. Knowledge about the drivers of growing season length of individuals is essential to more accurately predict species and community responses to environmental variation.

Shift in competitive ability mediated by soil biota in an invasive plant

Understanding the shifts in competitive ability and its driving forces is key to predict the future of plant invasion. Changes in the competition environment and soil biota are two selective forces that impose remarkable influences on competitive ability. By far, evidence of the interactive effects of competition environment and soil biota on competitive ability of invasive species is rare. Here, we investigated their interactive effects using an invasive perennial vine, Mikania micrantha. The competitive performance of seven M. micrantha populations varying in their conspecific and heterospecific abundance were monitored in a greenhouse experiment, by manipulating soil biota (live and sterilized) and competition conditions (competition-free, intraspecific, and interspecific competition). Our results showed that with increasing conspecific abundance and decreasing heterospecific abundance, (1) M. micrantha increased intraspecific competition tolerance and intra- vs. interspecific competitive ability but decreased interspecific competition tolerance; (2) M. micrantha increased tolerance of the negative soil biota effect; and (3) interspecific competition tolerance of M. micrantha was increasingly suppressed by the presence of soil biota, but intraspecific competition tolerance was less affected. These results highlight the importance of the soil biota effect on the evolution of competitive ability during the invasion process. To better control M. micrantha invasion, our results imply that introduction of competition-tolerant native plants that align with conservation priorities may be effective where M. micrantha populations are long-established and inferior in inter- vs. intraspecific competitive ability, whereas eradication may be effective where populations are newly invaded and fast-growing.

Plant phenological responses to experimental warming-A synthesis

Although there is abundant evidence that plant phenology is shifting with climatic warming, the magnitude and direction of these shifts can depend on the environmental context, plant species, and even the specific phenophase of study. These disparities have resulted in difficulties predicting future phenological shifts, detecting phenological mismatches and identifying other ecological consequences. Experimental warming studies are uniquely poised to help us understand how climate warming will impact plant phenology, and meta-analyses allow us to expose broader trends from individual studies. Here, we review 70 studies comprised 1226 observations of plant phenology under experimental warming. We find that plants are advancing their early-season phenophases (bud break, leaf-out, and flowering) in response to warming while marginally delaying their late-season phenophases (leaf coloration, leaf fall, and senescence). We find consistency in the magnitude of phenological shifts across latitude, elevation, and habitat types, whereas the effect of warming on nonnative annual plants is two times larger than the effect of warming on native perennial plants. Encouragingly for researchers, plant phenological responses were generally consistent across a variety of experimental warming methods. However, we found numerous gaps in the experimental warming literature, limiting our ability to predict the effects of warming on phenological shifts. In particular, studies outside of temperate ecosystems in the Northern Hemisphere, or those that focused on late-season phenophases, annual plants, nonnative plants, or woody plants and grasses, were underrepresented in our data set. Future experimental warming studies could further refine our understanding of phenological responses to warming by setting up experiments outside of traditionally studied biogeographic zones and measuring multiple plant phenophases (especially late-season phenophases) across species of varying origin, growth form, and life cycle.

The dispersal-related traits of an invasive plant Galinsoga quadriradiata correlate with elevation during range expansion into mountain ranges

Detecting shifts in trait values among populations of an invasive plant is important for assessing invasion risks and predicting future spread. Although a growing number of studies suggest that the dispersal propensity of invasive plants increases during range expansion, there has been relatively little attention paid to dispersal patterns along elevational gradients. In this study, we tested the differentiation of dispersal-related traits in an invasive plant, Galinsoga quadriradiata, across populations at different elevations in the Qinling and Bashan Mountains in central China. Seed mass-area ratio (MAR), an important seed dispersal-related trait, of 45 populations from along an elevational gradient was measured, and genetic variation of 23 populations was quantified using inter-simple sequence repeat (ISSR) markers. Individuals from four populations were then planted in a greenhouse to compare their performance under shared conditions. Changing patterns of seed dispersal-related traits and populations genetic diversity along elevation were tested using linear regression. Mass-area ratio of G. quadriradiata increased, while genetic diversity decreased with elevation in the field survey. In the greenhouse, populations of G. quadriradiata sourced from different elevations showed a difference response of MAR. These results suggest that although rapid evolution may contribute to the range expansion of G. quadriradiata in mountain ranges, dispersal-related traits will also likely be affected by phenotypic plasticity. This challenges the common argument that dispersal ability of invasive plants increases along dispersal routes. Furthermore, our results suggest that high-altitude populations would be more effective at seed dispersal once they continue to expand their range downslope on the other side. Our experiment provides novel evidence that the spread of these high-altitude populations may be more likely than previously theorized and that they should thus be cautiously monitored.

Hybrid watermilfoil (Myriophyllum spicatum × Myriophyllum sibiricum) exhibits traits associated with greater invasiveness than its introduced and native parental taxa

Hybridization has been associated with increased invasiveness in plants. In North America, the hybrid aquatic plant Myriophyllum spicatum × Myriophyllum sibiricum (hybrid watermilfoil, hereafter HWM) is a cross between non-native invasive Eurasian watermilfoil (M. spicatum, EWM) and native northern watermilfoil (M. sibiricum, NWM). Lab-based trials have demonstrated higher growth rates in HWM compared to EWM and NWM, but these patterns have not been systematically examined in the field. In this study, we compared the invasiveness of HWM to its parental taxa, EWM and NWM, by examining the amount and timing of: (1) flowering, (2) surface cover, and (3) biomass (using stem counts as a proxy). We conducted repeat surveys of Myriophyllum beds at eight lakes (2–3 lakes/taxon) in the Minneapolis–St. Paul Metropolitan area (Minnesota, USA) between June 2017 and November 2018. HWM produced more flower spikes earlier and overall, and maintained consistently more flower spikes throughout the growing season than EWM and NWM. In addition, surface cover reached greater annual peaks and was higher for longer throughout the growing season for HWM than for both parental taxa. We did not observe a significant difference in stem counts among the three taxa, but HWM did reach a higher maximum number of stems than either parental taxon. This study provides field-based evidence of increased invasiveness associated with hybridization between EWM and NWM; specifically, greater reproductive potential via flowering and greater surface cover may increase HWM spread, have greater impacts on native species, and pose more of a nuisance to lake users.

Vertebrate herbivory weakens directional selection for earlier emergence in competition

The timing of seedling emergence is strongly linked with fitness because it determines the biotic and abiotic environment experienced by plants in this vulnerable life stage. Experiments and observations consistently find that earlier-emerging plants have a competitive advantage over those emerging later. However, substantial genetic and phenotypic variation in emergence timing is harbored within and among plant populations, making it important to characterize the selective agents-including biotic interactions-that contribute to this variation. In seasonal herbaceous communities, we hypothesized that consumption of early-emerging individuals by vertebrates could weaken the strength of directional selection for earlier emergence in competitive environments. To investigate this, we carried out phenotypic selection analyses on emergence timing in two California grass species, the native Stipa pulchra and non-native Bromus diandrus, growing in intraspecific competitive neighborhoods with and without vertebrate herbivore exclusion. Vertebrate herbivores consistently weakened directional selection for earlier emergence. Our results demonstrate that vertebrate herbivores play an underappreciated selective role on phenology in plant populations, with implications for contemporary evolution, such as the potential of species to adapt to global environmental changes.

Plants with lengthened phenophases increase their dominance under warming in an alpine plant community

Predicting how shifts in plant phenology affect species dominance remains challenging, because plant phenology and species dominance have been largely investigated independently. Moreover, most phenological research has primarily focused on phenological firsts (leaf-out and first flower dates), leading to a lack of representation of phenological lasts (leaf senescence and last flower) and full phenological periods (growing season length and flower duration). Here, we simultaneously investigated the effects of experimental warming on different phenological events of various species and species dominance in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau. Warming significantly advanced phenological firsts for most species but had variable effects on phenological lasts. As a result, warming tended to extend species' full phenological periods, although this trend was not significant for all species. Experimental warming reduced community evenness and differentially impacted species dominance. Shifts in full phenological periods, rather than a single shift in phenological firsts or phenological lasts, were associated with changes in species dominance. Species with lengthened full phenological periods under warming increased their dominance. Our results advance the understanding of how altered species-specific phenophases relate to changes in community structure in response to climate change.

Phenological plasticity is a poor predictor of subalpine plant population performance following experimental climate change

Phenological shifts, changes in the seasonal timing of life cycle events, are among the best documented responses of species to climate change. However, the consequences of these phenological shifts for population dynamics remain unclear. Population growth could be enhanced if species that advance their phenology benefit from longer growing seasons and gain a pre-emptive advantage in resource competition. However, it might also be reduced if phenological advances increase exposure to stresses, such as herbivores and, in colder climates, harsh abiotic conditions early in the growing season. We exposed subalpine grasslands to ~ 3 K of warming by transplanting intact turfs from 2000 m to 1400 m elevation in the eastern Swiss Alps, with turfs transplanted within the 2000 m site acting as a control. In the first growing season after transplantation, we recorded species' flowering phenology at both elevations. We also measured species' cover change for three consecutive years as a measure of plant performance. We used models to estimate species' phenological plasticity (the response of flowering time to the change in climate) and analysed its relationship with cover changes following climate change. The phenological plasticity of the 18 species in our study varied widely but was unrelated to their changes in cover. Moreover, early- and late-flowering species did not differ in their cover response to warming, nor in the relationship between cover changes and phenological plasticity. These results were replicated in a similar transplant experiment within the same subalpine community, established one year earlier and using larger turfs. We discuss the various ecological processes that can be affected by phenological shifts, and argue why the population-level consequences of these shifts are likely to be species- and context-specific. Our results highlight the importance of testing assumptions about how warming-induced changes in phenotypic traits, like phenology, impact population dynamics.

Phenological synchrony shapes pathology in host-parasite systems

A key challenge surrounding ongoing climate shifts is to identify how they alter species interactions, including those between hosts and parasites. Because transmission often occurs during critical time windows, shifts in the phenology of either taxa can alter the likelihood of interaction or the resulting pathology. We quantified how phenological synchrony between vulnerable stages of an amphibian host (Pseudacris regilla) and infection by a pathogenic trematode (Ribeiroia ondatrae) determined infection prevalence, parasite load and host pathology. By tracking hosts and parasite infection throughout development between low- and high-elevation regions (San Francisco Bay Area and the Southern Cascades (Mt Lassen)), we found that when phenological synchrony was high (Bay Area), each established parasite incurred a 33% higher probability of causing severe limb malformations relative to areas with less synchrony (Mt Lassen). As a result, hosts in the Bay Area had up to a 50% higher risk of pathology even while controlling for the mean infection load. Our results indicate that host-parasite interactions and the resulting pathology were the joint product of infection load and phenological synchrony, highlighting the sensitivity of disease outcomes to forecasted shifts in climate.

The role of seasonal timing and phenological shifts for species coexistence

Shifts in the phenologies of coexistence species are altering the temporal structure of natural communities worldwide. However, predicting how these changes affect the structure and long-term dynamics of natural communities is challenging because phenology and coexistence theory have largely proceeded independently. Here, I propose a conceptual framework that incorporates seasonal timing of species interactions into a well-studied competition model to examine how changes in phenologies influence long-term dynamics of natural communities. Using this framework I demonstrate that persistence and coexistence conditions strongly depend on the difference in species' mean phenologies and how this difference varies across years. Consequently, shifts in mean and interannual variation in relative phenologies of species can fundamentally alter the outcome of interactions and the potential for persistence and coexistence of competing species. These effects can be predicted by how per-capita effects scale with differences in species' phenologies. I outline how this approach can be parameterized with empirical systems and discuss how it fits within the context of current coexistence theory. Overall, this synthesis reveals that phenology of species interactions can play a crucial yet currently understudied role in driving coexistence and biodiversity patterns in natural systems and determine how species will respond to future climate change.