Modeling movement of West Nile virus in the Western hemisphere

Epidemiological hypothesis testing using a phylogeographic and phylodynamic framework

Computational analyses of pathogen genomes are increasingly used to unravel the dispersal history and transmission dynamics of epidemics. Here, we show how to go beyond historical reconstructions and use spatially-explicit phylogeographic and phylodynamic approaches to formally test epidemiological hypotheses. We illustrate our approach by focusing on the West Nile virus (WNV) spread in North America that has substantially impacted public, veterinary, and wildlife health. We apply an analytical workflow to a comprehensive WNV genome collection to test the impact of environmental factors on the dispersal of viral lineages and on viral population genetic diversity through time. We find that WNV lineages tend to disperse faster in areas with higher temperatures and we identify temporal variation in temperature as a main predictor of viral genetic diversity through time. By contrasting inference with simulation, we find no evidence for viral lineages to preferentially circulate within the same migratory bird flyway, suggesting a substantial role for non-migratory birds or mosquito dispersal along the longitudinal gradient.

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus dissemination across pig production systems in the United States

Porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome virus (PRRSV) remains widespread in the North American pig population. Despite improvements in virus characterization, it is unclear whether PRRSV infections are a product of viral circulation within production systems (local) or across production systems (external). Here, we examined the local and external dissemination dynamics of PRRSV and the processes facilitating its spread in three production systems. Overall, PRRSV genetic diversity has declined since 2018, while phylodynamic results support frequent external transmission. We found that PRRSV dissemination predominantly occurred mostly through transmission between farms of different production companies for several months, especially from November until May, a timeframe already established as PRRSV season. Although local PRRSV dissemination occurred mainly through regular pig flow (from sow to nursery and then to finisher farms), an important flux of PRRSV dissemination also occurred in the opposite direction, from finisher to sow and nursery farms, highlighting the importance of downstream farms as sources of the virus. Our results also showed that farms with pig densities of 500 to 1,000 pig/km² and farms located at a range within 0.5 km and 0.7 km from major roads were more likely to be infected by PRRSV, whereas farms at an elevation of 41 to 61 meters and surrounded by denser vegetation were less likely to be infected, indicating their role as dissemination barriers. In conclusion, our results demonstrate that external dissemination was intense, and reinforce the importance of farm proximity on PRRSV spread. Thus, consideration of farm location, geographic characteristics and animal densities across production systems may help to forecast PRRSV collateral dissemination.

Introduction, Spread, and Establishment of West Nile Virus in the Americas

The introduction of West Nile virus (WNV) to North America in 1999 and its subsequent rapid spread across the Americas demonstrated the potential impact of arboviral introductions to new regions, and this was reinforced by the subsequent introductions of chikungunya and Zika viruses. Extensive studies of host-pathogen-vector-environment interactions over the past two decades have illuminated many aspects of the ecology and evolution of WNV and other arboviruses, including the potential for pathogen adaptation to hosts and vectors, the influence of climate, land use and host immunity on transmission ecology, and the difficulty in preventing the establishment of a zoonotic pathogen with abundant wildlife reservoirs. Here, we focus on outstanding questions concerning the introduction, spread, and establishment of WNV in the Americas, and what it can teach us about the future of arboviral introductions. Key gaps in our knowledge include the following: viral adaptation and coevolution of hosts, vectors and the virus; the mechanisms and species involved in the large-scale spatial spread of WNV; how weather modulates WNV transmission; the drivers of large-scale variation in enzootic transmission; the ecology of WNV transmission in Latin America; and the relative roles of each component of host-virus-vector interactions in spatial and temporal variation in WNV transmission. Integrative studies that examine multiple factors and mechanisms simultaneously are needed to advance our knowledge of mechanisms driving transmission.

Overwintering of West Nile Virus in the United States

The establishment of a tropical virus such as West Nile (WNV; Flaviviridae: Flavivirus) within the temperate latitudes of the continental United States was unexpected and perhaps contingent, in part, upon the ability of this invasive virus to persist during winter when temperatures become too cold for replication and vector mosquito gonotrophic activity. Our Forum article reviews research examining possible overwintering mechanisms that include consistent reintroduction and local persistence in vector mosquitoes and avian hosts, mostly using examples from research conducted in California. We conclude that the transmission of WNV involves so many vectors and hosts within different landscapes that multiple overwintering pathways are possible and collectively may be necessary to allow this virus to overwinter consistently within the United States.

Twenty years of West Nile virus spread and evolution in the Americas visualized by Nextstrain

It has been 20 years since West Nile virus first emerged in the Americas, and since then, little progress has been made to control outbreaks caused by this virus. After its first detection in New York in 1999, West Nile virus quickly spread across the continent, causing an epidemic of human disease and massive bird die-offs. Now the virus has become endemic to the United States, where an estimated 7 million human infections have occurred, making it the leading mosquito-borne virus infection and the most common cause of viral encephalitis in the country. To bring new attention to one of the most important mosquito-borne viruses in the Americas, we provide an interactive review using Nextstrain: a visualization tool for real-time tracking of pathogen evolution (nextstrain.org/WNV/NA). Nextstrain utilizes a growing database of more than 2,000 West Nile virus genomes and harnesses the power of phylogenetics for students, educators, public health workers, and researchers to visualize key aspects of virus spread and evolution. Using Nextstrain, we use virus genomics to investigate the emergence of West Nile virus in the U S, followed by its rapid spread, evolution in a new environment, establishment of endemic transmission, and subsequent international spread. For each figure, we include a link to Nextstrain to allow the readers to directly interact with and explore the underlying data in new ways. We also provide a brief online narrative that parallels this review to further explain the data and highlight key epidemiological and evolutionary features (nextstrain.org/narratives/twenty-years-of-WNV). Mirroring the dynamic nature of outbreaks, the Nextstrain links provided within this paper are constantly updated as new West Nile virus genomes are shared publicly, helping to stay current with the research. Overall, our review showcases how genomics can track West Nile virus spread and evolution, as well as potentially uncover novel targeted control measures to help alleviate its public health burden.

Evolution of dispersal syndrome and its corresponding metabolomic changes

Dispersal is one of the strategies for organisms to deal with climate change and habitat degradation. Therefore, investigating the effects of dispersal evolution on natural populations is of considerable interest to ecologists and conservation biologists. Although it is known that dispersal itself can evolve due to selection, the behavioral, life-history and metabolic consequences of dispersal evolution are not well understood. Here, we explore these issues by subjecting four outbred laboratory populations of Drosophila melanogaster to selection for increased dispersal. The dispersal-selected populations had similar values of body size, fecundity, and longevity as the nonselected lines (controls), but evolved significantly greater locomotor activity, exploratory tendency, and aggression. Untargeted metabolomic fingerprinting through NMR spectroscopy suggested that the selected flies evolved elevated cellular respiration characterized by greater amounts of glucose, AMP, and NAD. Concurrent evolution of higher level of Octopamine and other neurotransmitters indicate a possible mechanism for the behavioral changes in the selected lines. We discuss the generalizability of our findings in the context of observations from natural populations. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first report of the evolution of metabolome due to selection for dispersal and its connection to dispersal syndrome evolution.

An Integrative Eco-Epidemiological Analysis of West Nile Virus Transmission

West Nile disease, caused by the West Nile virus (WNV), is a mosquito-borne zoonotic disease affecting humans and horses that involves wild birds as amplifying hosts. The mechanisms of WNV transmission remain unclear in Europe where the occurrence of outbreaks has dramatically increased in recent years. We used a dataset on the competence, distribution, abundance, diversity and dispersal of wild bird hosts and mosquito vectors to test alternative hypotheses concerning the transmission of WNV in Southern France. We modelled the successive processes of introduction, amplification, dispersal and spillover of WNV to incidental hosts based on host-vector contact rates on various land cover types and over four seasons. We evaluated the relative importance of the mechanisms tested using two independent serological datasets of WNV antibodies collected in wild birds and horses. We found that the same transmission processes (seasonal virus introduction by migratory birds, Culex modestus mosquitoes as amplifying vectors, heterogeneity in avian host competence, absence of 'dilution effect') best explain the spatial variations in WNV seroprevalence in the two serological datasets. Our results provide new insights on the pathways of WNV introduction, amplification and spillover and the contribution of bird and mosquito species to WNV transmission in Southern France.

Forests of opportunities and mischief: disentangling the interactions between forests, parasites and immune responses

Habitat characteristics determine the presence of individuals through resource availability, but at the same time, such features also influence the occurrence of parasites. We analyzed how birds respond to changes in interior forest structures, to forest management regimes, and to the risk of haemosporidian infections. We captured and took blood samples from blackcaps (Sylvia atricapilla) and chaffinches (Fringilla coelebs) in three different forest types (beech, mixed deciduous, spruce). We measured birds' body asymmetries, detected avian haemosporidians, and counted white blood cells as an immune measure of each individual per forest type. We used, to our knowledge for the first time, continuous forest structural parameters to quantify habitat structure, and found significant effects of habitat structure on parasite prevalence that previously have been undetected. We found three times higher prevalence for blackcaps compared with chaffinches. Parasite intensity varied significantly within host species depending on forest type, being lowest in beech forests for both host species. Structurally complex habitats with a high degree of entropy had a positive effect on the likelihood of acquiring an infection, but the effect on prevalence was negative for forest sections with a south facing aspect. For blackcaps, forest gaps also had a positive effect on prevalence, but canopy height had a negative one. Our results suggest that forest types and variations in forest structure influence the likelihood of acquiring an infection, which subsequently has an influence on host health status and body condition; however, responses to some environmental factors are host-specific.

Genotype-specific variation in West Nile virus dispersal in California

West Nile virus (WNV) is an arbovirus that was first reported in North America in New York in 1999 and, by 2003, had spread more than 4000 km to California. However, variation in viral genetics associated with spread is not well understood. Herein, we report sequences for more than 100 WNV isolates made from mosquito pools that were collected from 2003 to 2011 as part of routine surveillance by the California Mosquito-borne Virus Surveillance System. We performed phylogeographic analyses and demonstrated that 5 independent introductions of WNV (1 WN02 genotype strain and 4 SW03 genotype strains) occurred in California. The SW03 genotype of WNV was constrained to the southwestern U.S. and had a more rapid rate of spread. In addition, geographic constraint of WNV strains within a single region for up to 6 years suggest viral maintenance has been driven by resident, rather than migratory, birds and overwintering in mosquitoes.

Evidence for co-evolution of West Nile Virus and house sparrows in North America

West Nile virus (WNV) has been maintained in North America in enzootic cycles between mosquitoes and birds since it was first described in North America in 1999. House sparrows (HOSPs; Passer domesticus) are a highly competent host for WNV that have contributed to the rapid spread of WNV across the U.S.; however, their competence has been evaluated primarily using an early WNV strain (NY99) that is no longer circulating. Herein, we report that the competence of wild HOSPs for the NY99 strain has decreased significantly over time, suggesting that HOSPs may have developed resistance to this early WNV strain. Moreover, recently isolated WNV strains generate higher peak viremias and mortality in contemporary HOSPs compared to NY99. These data indicate that opposing selective pressures in both the virus and avian host have resulted in a net increase in the level of host competence of North American HOSPs for currently circulating WNV strains.

West nile virus and its theories, a big puzzle in Mexico and latin america

It has been 13 years since the first outbreak of West Nile Virus (WNV) occurred in the Americas. Since then, thousands of human cases have been reported in the United States. In contrast, there has not yet been an outbreak of WNV in any Latin American countries, including Mexico where <20 cases have been reported. We aimed to review publications to gather the main theories related to the fact that not all the countries of the continent reported human cases or that they have reported few cases since the introduction of WNV in the Western Hemisphere. We identified relevant publications using the PubMed database. Furthermore, we present on-line published information from Mexico. We found that researchers have tried to explain this phenomenon using several theories, like pre-existing antibodies against a heterotypical virus that have conferred cross protection in the population. Another explanation is that the strains circulating in Latin America are attenuated or that they came from a different origin of introduction in the continent. Another theory is that a conclusive diagnostic in regions where more than one Flavivirus is circulating results in cross-reaction in serological tests. Probably the sum of factors described by researchers in these theories in order to explain the behavior of the virus has resulted in the low number of reported cases in Latin America.

Predictive modeling of West Nile virus transmission risk in the Mediterranean Basin: how far from landing?

The impact on human and horse health of West Nile fever (WNF) recently and dramatically increased in Europe and neighboring countries. Involving several mosquito and wild bird species, WNF epidemiology is complex. Despite the implementation of surveillance systems in several countries of concern, and due to a lack of knowledge, outbreak occurrence remains unpredictable. Statistical models may help identifying transmission risk factors. When spatialized, they provide tools to identify areas that are suitable for West Nile virus transmission. Mathematical models may be used to improve our understanding of epidemiological process involved, to evaluate the impact of environmental changes or test the efficiency of control measures. We propose a systematic literature review of publications aiming at modeling the processes involved in WNF transmission in the Mediterranean Basin. The relevance of the corresponding models as predictive tools for risk mapping, early warning and for the design of surveillance systems in a changing environment is analyzed.

Differential virulence and pathogenesis of West Nile viruses

West Nile virus (WNV) is a neurotropic flavivirus that cycles between mosquitoes and birds but that can also infect humans, horses, and other vertebrate animals. In most humans, WNV infection remains subclinical. However, 20%-40% of those infected may develop WNV disease, with symptoms ranging from fever to meningoencephalitis. A large variety of WNV strains have been described worldwide. Based on their genetic differences, they have been classified into eight lineages; the pathogenic strains belong to lineages 1 and 2. Ten years ago, Beasley et al. (2002) found that dramatic differences exist in the virulence and neuroinvasion properties of lineage 1 and lineage 2 WNV strains. Further insights on how WNV interacts with its hosts have recently been gained; the virus acts either at the periphery or on the central nervous system (CNS), and these observed differences could help explain the differential virulence and neurovirulence of WNV strains. This review aims to summarize the current state of knowledge on factors that trigger WNV dissemination and CNS invasion as well as on the inflammatory response and CNS damage induced by WNV. Moreover, we will discuss how WNV strains differentially interact with the innate immune system and CNS cells, thus influencing WNV pathogenesis.

Ecology of West Nile virus in North America

The introduction, dispersal and establishment of West Nile virus in North America were reviewed, focusing on factors that may have enhanced receptivity and enabled the invasion process. The overwintering persistence of this tropical virus within temperate latitudes was unexpected, but was key in the transition from invasion to endemic establishment. The cascade of temporal events allowing sporadic amplification to outbreak levels was discussed within a future perspective.

Pathology and tissue tropism of natural West Nile virus infection in birds: a review

West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed arthropod-borne flavivirus capable of infecting a wide variety of vertebrates, with birds as its natural reservoir. Although it had been considered a pathogen of little importance for birds, from the 1990's, and especially after its introduction in the North American continent in 1999, thousands of birds have succumbed to West Nile infection. This review summarizes the pathogenesis and pathology of WNV infection in birds highlighting differences in lesion and antigen distribution and severity among bird orders and families. Despite significant species differences in susceptibility to infection, WNV associated lesions and viral antigen are present in the majority of organs of infected birds. The non-progressive, acute or more prolonged course of the disease accounts for part of the differences in lesion and viral antigen distribution and lesion severity. Most likely a combination of host variables and environmental factors in addition to the intrinsic virulence and pathogenicity of the infecting WNV strain influence the pathogenesis of the infection.

Host preference of the arbovirus vector Culex erraticus (Diptera: Culicidae) at Sonso Lake, Cauca Valley Department, Colombia

Culex erraticus (Dyar & Knab) is a competent vector of Eastern equine encephalitis virus and subtype IC Venezuelan equine encephalitis virus, and both St. Louis encephalitis virus and West Nile virus have been isolated from field-collected specimens. Previous bloodmeal analysis studies have shown this species to be a generalist, feeding on a variety of mammals, birds, reptiles, and amphibians. This behavior can bridge arboviral transmission across different vertebrate groups. Our study examined the host preference of Cx. erraticus at Sonso Lake in Colombia. From July to August 2008, blood-engorged mosquitoes were collected from resting boxes, while vertebrate abundance was determined to calculate host preference. Based on mitochondrial DNA analysis of bloodmeals, birds were the predominant hosts (57.6%), followed by mammals (30.8%), and reptiles (6.7%); 9.5% of the bloodmeals were mixed. The most commonly fed upon species were: limpkin, black-crowned night-heron, striated heron, human, and capybara. Forage ratios showed the least bittern, limpkin, Cocoi heron, striated heron, capybara, and black-crowned night heron were preferred hosts across all vertebrates. Of the available avifauna, the least bittern, limpkin, striated heron, Cocoi heron, and black-crowned night heron were preferred, whereas the bare faced ibis, great egret, snowy egret, and cattle egret were under-used. This study shows that while Cx. erraticus is an opportunistic feeder, using diverse vertebrate hosts in the environment, certain avian species are targeted preferentially for bloodmeals.

Unifying the spatial epidemiology and molecular evolution of emerging epidemics

We introduce a conceptual bridge between the previously unlinked fields of phylogenetics and mathematical spatial ecology, which enables the spatial parameters of an emerging epidemic to be directly estimated from sampled pathogen genome sequences. By using phylogenetic history to correct for spatial autocorrelation, we illustrate how a fundamental spatial variable, the diffusion coefficient, can be estimated using robust nonparametric statistics, and how heterogeneity in dispersal can be readily quantified. We apply this framework to the spread of the West Nile virus across North America, an important recent instance of spatial invasion by an emerging infectious disease. We demonstrate that the dispersal of West Nile virus is greater and far more variable than previously measured, such that its dissemination was critically determined by rare, long-range movements that are unlikely to be discerned during field observations. Our results indicate that, by ignoring this heterogeneity, previous models of the epidemic have substantially overestimated its basic reproductive number. More generally, our approach demonstrates that easily obtainable genetic data can be used to measure the spatial dynamics of natural populations that are otherwise difficult or costly to quantify.

Effects of temperature on emergence and seasonality of West Nile virus in California

Temperature has played a critical role in the spatiotemporal dynamics of West Nile virus transmission throughout California from its introduction in 2003 through establishment by 2009. We compared two novel mechanistic measures of transmission risk, the temperature-dependent ratio of virus extrinsic incubation period to the mosquito gonotrophic period (BT), and the fundamental reproductive ratio (R(0)) based on a mathematical model, to analyze spatiotemporal patterns of receptivity to viral amplification. Maps of BT and R(0) were created at 20-km scale and compared throughout California to seroconversions in sentinel chicken flocks at half-month intervals. Overall, estimates of BT and R(0) agreed with intensity of transmission measured by the frequency of sentinel chicken seroconversions. Mechanistic measures such as these are important for understanding how temperature affects the spatiotemporal dynamics of West Nile virus transmission and for delineating risk estimates useful to inform vector control agency intervention decisions and communicate outbreak potential.

West Nile virus population genetics and evolution

West Nile virus (WNV) (Flaviviridae: Flavivirus) is transmitted from mosquitoes to birds, but can cause fatal encephalitis in infected humans. Since its introduction into North America in New York in 1999, it has spread throughout the western hemisphere. Multiple outbreaks have also occurred in Europe over the last 20 years. This review highlights recent efforts to understand how host pressures impact viral population genetics, genotypic and phenotypic changes which have occurred in the WNV genome as it adapts to this novel environment, and molecular epidemiology of WNV worldwide. Future research directions are also discussed.

Vector host-feeding preferences drive transmission of multi-host pathogens: West Nile virus as a model system

Seasonal epizootics of vector-borne pathogens infecting multiple species are ecologically complex and difficult to forecast. Pathogen transmission potential within the host community is determined by the relative abilities of host species to maintain and transmit the pathogen and by ecological factors influencing contact rates between hosts and vectors. Increasing evidence of strong feeding preferences by a number of vectors suggests that the host community experienced by the pathogen may be very different from the local host community. We developed an empirically informed transmission model for West Nile virus (WNV) in four sites using one vector species (Culex pipiens) and preferred and non-preferred avian hosts. We measured strong feeding preferences for American robins (Turdus migratorius) by Cx. pipiens, quantified as the proportion of Cx. pipiens blood meals from robins in relation to their abundance (feeding index). The model accurately predicted WNV prevalence in Cx. pipiens at three of four sites. Sensitivity analysis revealed feeding preference was the most influential parameter on intensity and timing of peak WNV infection in Cx. pipiens and a threshold feeding index for transmission was identified. Our findings indicate host preference-induced contact heterogeneity is a key mediator of vector-borne pathogen epizootics in multi-species host communities, and should be incorporated into multi-host transmission models.

West Nile virus range expansion into British Columbia

In 2009, an expansion of West Nile virus (WNV) into the Canadian province of British Columbia was detected. Two locally acquired cases of infection in humans and 3 cases of infection in horses were detected by ELISA and plaque-reduction neutralization tests. Ten positive mosquito pools were detected by reverse transcription PCR. Most WNV activity in British Columbia in 2009 occurred in the hot and dry southern Okanagan Valley. Virus establishment and amplification in this region was likely facilitated by above average nightly temperatures and a rapid accumulation of degree-days in late summer. Estimated exposure dates for humans and initial detection of WNV-positive mosquitoes occurred concurrently with a late summer increase in Culex tarsalis mosquitoes (which spread western equine encephalitis) in the southern Okanagan Valley. The conditions present during this range expansion suggest that temperature and Cx. tarsalis mosquito abundance may be limiting factors for WNV transmission in this portion of the Pacific Northwest.

Population genetic data suggest a role for mosquito-mediated dispersal of West Nile virus across the western United States

After introduction, West Nile virus (WNV) spread rapidly across the western United States between the years 2001 and 2004. This westward movement is thought to have been mediated by random dispersive movements of resident birds. Little attention has been placed on the role of mosquito vectors in virus dispersal across North America. The mosquito vector largely responsible for WNV amplification and transmission of WNV in the western USA is Culex tarsalis. Here we present population genetic data that suggest a potential role for C. tarsalis in the dispersal of WNV across the western USA. Population genetic structure across the species range of C. tarsalis in the USA was characterized in 16 states using 12 microsatellite loci. structure and geneland analyses indicated the presence of three broad population clusters. Barriers to gene flow were resolved near the Sonoran desert in southern Arizona and between the eastern Rocky Mountains and High Plains plateau. Small genetic distances among populations within clusters indicated that gene flow was not obstructed over large portions of the West Coast and within the Great Plains region. Overall, gene flow in C. tarsalis appears to be extensive, potentially mediated by movement of mosquitoes among neighbouring populations and hindered in geographically limited parts of its range. The pattern of genetic clustering in C. tarsalis is congruent with the pattern of invasion of WNV across the western United States, raising the possibility that movement of this important vector may be involved in viral dispersal.

A metapopulation model to simulate West Nile virus circulation in Western Africa, Southern Europe and the Mediterranean basin

In Europe, virological and epidemiological data collected in wild birds and horses suggest that a recurrent circulation of West Nile virus (WNV) could exist in some areas. Whether this circulation is permanent (due to overwintering mechanisms) or not remains unknown. The current conception of WNV epidemiology suggests that it is not: this conception combines an enzootic WNV circulation in tropical Africa with seasonal introductions of the virus in Europe by migratory birds. The objectives of this work were to (i) model this conception of WNV global circulation; and (ii) evaluate whether the model could reproduce data and patterns observed in Europe and Africa in vectors, horses, and birds. The model was calibrated using published seroprevalence data obtained from African (Senegal) and European (Spain) wild birds, and validated using independent, published data: seroprevalence rates in migratory and resident wild birds, minimal infection rates in vectors, as well as seroprevalence and incidence rates in horses. According to this model, overwintering mechanisms are not needed to reproduce the observed data. However, the existence of such mechanisms cannot be ruled out.

Landscape epidemiology of vector-borne diseases

Landscape epidemiology describes how the temporal dynamics of host, vector, and pathogen populations interact spatially within a permissive environment to enable transmission. The spatially defined focus, or nidus, of transmission may be characterized by vegetation as well as by climate, latitude, elevation, and geology. The ecological complexity, dimensions, and temporal stability of the nidus are determined largely by pathogen natural history and vector bionomics. Host populations, transmission efficiency, and therefore pathogen amplification vary spatially, thereby creating a heterogeneous surface that may be defined by remote sensing and statistical tools. The current review describes the evolution of landscape epidemiology as a science and exemplifies selected aspects by contrasting the ecology of two different recent disease outbreaks in North America caused by West Nile virus, an explosive, highly virulent mosquito-borne virus producing ephemeral nidi, and Borrelia burgdorferi, a slowly amplifying chronic pathogen producing semipermanent nidi.

Avian host-selection by Culex pipiens in experimental trials

Evidence from field studies suggests that Culex pipiens, the primary mosquito vector of West Nile virus (WNV) in the northeastern and north central United States, feeds preferentially on American robins (Turdus migratorius). To determine the contribution of innate preferences to observed preference patterns in the field, we conducted host preference trials with a known number of adult female C. pipiens in outdoor cages comparing the relative attractiveness of American robins with two common sympatric bird species, European starling, Sternus vulgaris and house sparrow, Passer domesticus. Host seeking C. pipiens were three times more likely to enter robin-baited traps when with the alternate host was a European starling (n = 4 trials; OR = 3.06; CI [1.42–6.46]) and almost twice more likely when the alternative was a house sparrow (n = 8 trials; OR = 1.80; CI = [1.22–2.90]). There was no difference in the probability of trap entry when two robins were offered (n = 8 trials). Logistic regression analysis determined that the age, sex and weight of the birds, the date of the trial, starting-time, temperature, humidity, wind-speed and age of the mosquitoes had no effect on the probability of a choosing a robin over an alternate bird. Findings indicate that preferential feeding by C. pipiens mosquitoes on certain avian hosts is likely to be inherent, and we discuss the implications innate host preferences may have on enzootic WNV transmission.

Emerging viral infections of the central nervous system: part 1

In this 2-part review, I will focus on emerging virus infections of the central nervous system (CNS). Part 1 will introduce the basic features of emerging infections, including their definition, epidemiology, and the frequency of CNS involvement. Important mechanisms of emergence will be reviewed, including viruses spreading into new host ranges as exemplified by West Nile virus (WNV), Japanese encephalitis (JE) virus, Toscana virus, and enterovirus 71 (EV71). Emerging infections also result from opportunistic spread of viruses into known niches, often resulting from attenuated host resistance to infection. This process is exemplified by transplant-associated cases of viral CNS infection caused by WNV, rabies virus, lymphocytic choriomeningitis, and lymphocytic choriomeningitis-like viruses and by the syndrome of human herpesvirus 6 (HHV6)-associated posttransplantation acute limbic encephalitis. The second part of this review begins with a discussion of JC virus and the occurrence of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy in association with novel immunomodulatory therapies and then continues with an overview of the risk of infection introduced by imported animals (eg, monkeypox virus) and examples of emerging diseases caused by enhanced competence of viruses for vectors and the spread of vectors (eg, chikungunya virus) and then concludes with examples of novel viruses causing CNS infection as exemplified by Nipah and Hendra viruses and bat lyssaviruses.

Changing patterns of West Nile virus transmission: altered vector competence and host susceptibility

West Nile virus (WNV) is a flavivirus (Flaviviridae) transmitted between Culex spp. mosquitoes and avian hosts. The virus has dramatically expanded its geographic range in the past ten years. Increases in global commerce, climate change, ecological factors and the emergence of novel viral genotypes likely play significant roles in the emergence of this virus; however, the exact mechanism and relative importance of each is uncertain. Previously WNV was primarily associated with febrile illness of children in endemic areas, but it was identified as a cause of neurological disease in humans in 1994. This modulation in disease presentation could be the result of the emergence of a more virulent genotype as well as the progression of the virus into areas in which the age structure of immunologically naïve individuals makes them more susceptible to severe neurological disease. Since its introduction to North America in 1999, a novel WNV genotype has been identified that has been demonstrated to disseminate more rapidly and with greater efficiency at elevated temperatures than the originally introduced strain, indicating the potential importance of temperature as a selective criteria for the emergence of WNV genotypes with increased vectorial capacity. Even prior to the North American introduction, a mutation associated with increased replication in avian hosts, identified to be under adaptive evolutionary pressure, has been identified, indicating that adaptation for increased replication within vertebrate hosts could play a role in increased transmission efficiency. Although stable in its evolutionary structure, WNV has demonstrated the capacity for rapidly adapting to both vertebrate hosts and invertebrate vectors and will likely continue to exploit novel ecological niches as it adapts to novel transmission foci.

Prevalence of West Nile virus neutralizing antibodies in Spain is related to the behavior of migratory birds

West Nile virus (WNV) is a bird flavivirus capable of infecting horses and humans that is transmitted by blood-sucking vectors. In Europe and Africa, sporadic infections and outbreaks causing human illness and deaths have occurred and have led to 2 mutually nonexclusive hypotheses regarding the circulation of WNV in Europe: (1) the occurrence of endemic sylvatic cycles that occasionally result in human or equine infection, or (2) sporadic seeding of WNV by migratory birds from areas where the virus is endemic in Africa or elsewhere that cause local epizootic foci and eventually lead to infection in humans. To investigate these 2 possibilities, we used a micro virus-neutralization test to examine the prevalence of WNV neutralizing antibodies in 574 individuals belonging to 25 species of birds captured in spring 2004 in Seville (southern Spain). Trans-Saharan migrant species had both higher prevalences and antibody titers than resident and short-distance migrants. This result suggests that trans-Saharan migrants spend part of their life cycles in areas with greater circulation of WNV, or a closely related flavivirus, before their arrival in Spain. On the other hand, seroprevalences assessed in resident birds suggest a low level of WNV circulation in the studied locality. Aside from the question of local circulation, it thus seems that the risk for introduction of strains of WNV from Africa by migratory birds merits further field and experimental studies in Spain.

Importance of bird-to-bird transmission for the establishment of West Nile virus

West Nile virus (WNV) is principally considered to be maintained in a mosquito-bird transmission cycle. Under experimental conditions, several other transmission routes have been observed, but the significance of these additional routes in nature is unknown. Here, we derive an expression for the basic reproduction number (R0) for WNV including all putative routes of transmission between birds and mosquitoes to gauge the relative importance of these routes for the establishment of WNV. Parameters were estimated from published experimental results. Sensitivity analysis reveals that R0 is sensitive to transmission between birds via close contact, but not to mosquito-to-mosquito transmission. In seasons or in areas where the mosquito-to-bird ratio is low, bird-to-bird transmission may be crucial in determining whether WNV can establish or not. We explain the use of R0 as a flexible tool to measure the risk of establishment of vector-borne diseases.

Serum antibodies to West Nile virus in naturally exposed and vaccinated horses

A polyvalent ELISA and plaque reduction neutralization tests (PRNTs) were used to measure serum antibodies to West Nile virus (WNV) in horses naturally exposed to or vaccinated against this flavivirus in Connecticut and New York State, USA. Relying on a PRNT as a 'gold standard', the main objective was to validate a modified ELISA containing a recombinant WNV envelope protein antigen. It was also important to assess specificity by testing sera from horses that had other, undiagnosed illnesses. Sera for the latter study were obtained from 43 privately owned horses during 1995-1996. Analyses by an ELISA and a PRNT confirmed the presence of WNV antibodies in 21 (91%) of 23 sera from naturally exposed horses and in 85% of the 20 vaccinated subjects; overall results for both study groups were highly concordant (91% agreement). Humoral responses of naturally exposed and immunized horses were similar. Both serological tests were useful in confirming past infections with WNV, but there was no evidence that horses with undiagnosed illnesses were exposed to WNV prior to a 1999 outbreak in Connecticut, USA.

Transmission dynamics and changing epidemiology of West Nile virus

West Nile virus (WNV) is a flavivirus that is maintained in a bird-mosquito transmission cycle. Humans, horses and other non-avian vertebrates are usually incidental hosts, but evidence is accumulating that this might not always be the case. Historically, WNV has been associated with asymptomatic infections and sporadic disease outbreaks in humans and horses in Africa, Europe, Asia and Australia. However, since 1994, the virus has caused frequent outbreaks of severe neuroinvasive disease in humans and horses in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. In 1999, WNV underwent a dramatic expansion of its geographic range, and was reported for the first time in the Western Hemisphere during an outbreak of human and equine encephalitis in New York City. The outbreak was accompanied by extensive and unprecedented avian mortality. Since then, WNV has dispersed across the Western Hemisphere and is now found throughout the USA, Canada, Mexico and the Caribbean, and parts of Central and South America. WNV has been responsible for >27,000 human cases, >25,000 equine cases and hundreds of thousands of avian deaths in the USA but, surprisingly, there have been only sparse reports of WNV disease in vertebrates in the Caribbean and Latin America. This review summarizes our current understanding of WNV with particular emphasis on its transmission dynamics and changing epidemiology.

A global perspective on the epidemiology of West Nile virus

West Nile virus (WNV) (Flavivirus: Flaviviridae) is the most widespread arbovirus in the world. A significant range expansion occurred beginning in 1999 when the virus was introduced into New York City. This review highlights recent research into WNV epizootiology and epidemiology, including recent advances in understanding of the host-virus interaction at the molecular, organismal, and ecological levels. Vector control strategies, vaccines, and antivirals, which now must be considered on a global scale, are also discussed.