Misconceptions About the Direction of Bias From Nondifferential Misclassification

Lipid Levels and Risk of Diabetic Polyneuropathy in 2 Danish Type 2 Diabetes Cohorts

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Reduction of blood lipids may aid in preventing diabetic polyneuropathy (DPN), but evidence remains conflicting. We investigated the association between lipid parameters and DPN risk in individuals with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

We conducted a population-based cohort study of individuals with newly diagnosed T2DM and a cross-sectional study using a clinically recruited T2DM cohort. Triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein (HDL), low-density lipoprotein (LDL), and non-HDL cholesterol were measured in routine diabetes care. Each lipid parameter was categorized according to the latest cutoffs in clinical guidelines on dyslipidemia. DPN was assessed with validated hospital diagnosis codes in the population-based cohort and with the Michigan Neuropathy Screening Instrument questionnaire in the clinical cohort. We calculated hazard ratios (HRs) using Cox regression and prevalence ratios (PRs) using Poisson regression.

RESULTS

We included 61,853 individuals in the population-based cohort (median age 63 [quartiles 54-72] years) and 4,823 in the clinical cohort (median age 65 [quartiles 57-72] years). The incidence rate of hospital-diagnosed DPN in the population-based cohort was 3.6 per 1000 person-years during a median follow-up of 7.3 years. Achieving guideline targets for HDL, LDL, and non-HDL cholesterol showed no association with DPN risk. By contrast, adjusted HRs (95% CI) for DPN were 1.02 (0.89-1.18) for triglyceride levels between 150 and 204 mg/dL (1.7-2.3 mmol/L) and 1.28 (1.13-1.45) for levels >204 mg/dL (2.3 mmol/L). In the clinical cohort with a DPN prevalence of 18%, DPN associated strongly with triglycerides >204 mg/dL (2.3 mmol/L) with an adjusted PR (95% CI) of 1.40 (1.21-1.62). The prevalence of DPN was modestly elevated for individuals with HDL cholesterol <39 mg/dL (1.0/1.3 mmol/L) in men and <50 mg/dL (1.3 mmol/L) in women (PR 1.13 [0.99-1.28]) and for individuals with non-HDL cholesterol >131 mg/dL (3.4 mmol/L) (PR 1.27 [1.05-1.52]). In both cohorts, spline models showed an increasing risk of DPN starting from triglyceride levels >124 mg/dL (1.4 mmol/L). All results were similar among statin users.

DISCUSSION

High triglyceride levels are a strong DPN risk factor. Future intervention studies shall determine whether triglyceride reduction is more important for DPN prevention than reduction of other lipids.

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS), perceived stress, and depressive symptoms in a prospective cohort study of black women

BACKGROUND

Per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS) are endocrine-disrupting chemicals with neurotoxic properties. PFAS have been associated with depressive symptoms among women in some studies, but little research has evaluated the effects of PFAS mixtures. Further, no study has investigated interactions of PFAS-depression associations by perceived stress, which has been shown to modify the effects of PFAS on other health outcomes.

OBJECTIVE

In a prospective cohort study of reproductive-aged Black women, we investigated associations between PFAS and depressive symptoms and the extent to which perceived stress modified these associations.

METHODS

We analyzed data from 1499 participants (23-35 years) in the Study of Environment, Lifestyle, and Fibroids. We quantified concentrations of nine PFAS in baseline plasma samples using online solid-phase extraction-liquid chromatography-isotope dilution tandem mass spectrometry. Participants reported perceived stress via the Perceived Stress Scale (PSS-4; range = 0-16) at baseline and depressive symptoms via the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale (CESD; range = 0-44) at the 20-month follow-up visit. We used Bayesian Kernel Machine Regression to estimate associations between PFAS concentrations, individually and as a mixture, and depressive symptoms, and to assess effect modification by PSS-4 scores, adjusting for confounders.

RESULTS

Baseline perfluorodecanoic acid concentrations were associated with greater depressive symptoms at the 20-month follow-up, but associations for other PFAS were null. The PFAS were not associated with depressive symptoms when evaluated as a mixture. The association between the 90th percentile (vs. 50th percentile) of the PFAS mixture with CES-D scores was null at the 10th (β = 0.03; 95 % CrI = 0.20, 0.25), 50th (β = 0.02; 95 % CrI = -0.16, 0.19), and 90th (β = 0.01; 95 % CrI = 0.18, 0.20) percentiles of PSS-4 scores, suggesting perceived stress did not modify the PFAS mixture.

CONCLUSION

In this prospective cohort study, PFAS concentrations-assessed individually or as a mixture-were not appreciably associated with depressive symptoms, and there was no evidence of effect modification by perceived stress.

Does adjustment for non-differential misclassification of dichotomous exposure induce positive bias if there is no true association?

This article is a response to an off-the-record discussion that I had at an international meeting of epidemiologists more than decade ago. It centered on a concern, perhaps widely spread, that adjustment for exposure misclassification can induce a false positive result. I trace the possible history of this supposition and test it in a simulated case-control study under the assumption of non-differential misclassification of binary exposure, in which a Bayesian adjustment is applied. Probabilistic bias analysis is also briefly considered. The main conclusion is that adjustment for the presumed non-differential exposure misclassification of dichotomous does not "induce" positive associations, especially if the focus of the interpretation of the result is taken away from the point estimate. The misconception about positive bias induced by adjustment for exposure misclassification, if more clearly explained during the training of epidemiologists, may promote appropriate (and wider) use of the adjustment techniques. The simple message that can be derived from this paper is: "Exposure misclassification as a tractable problem that deserves much more attention than just a typical qualitative throw-away discussion".

Misstatements, misperceptions, and mistakes in controlling for covariates in observational research

We discuss 12 misperceptions, misstatements, or mistakes concerning the use of covariates in observational or nonrandomized research. Additionally, we offer advice to help investigators, editors, reviewers, and readers make more informed decisions about conducting and interpreting research where the influence of covariates may be at issue. We primarily address misperceptions in the context of statistical management of the covariates through various forms of modeling, although we also emphasize design and model or variable selection. Other approaches to addressing the effects of covariates, including matching, have logical extensions from what we discuss here but are not dwelled upon heavily. The misperceptions, misstatements, or mistakes we discuss include accurate representation of covariates, effects of measurement error, overreliance on covariate categorization, underestimation of power loss when controlling for covariates, misinterpretation of significance in statistical models, and misconceptions about confounding variables, selecting on a collider, and p value interpretations in covariate-inclusive analyses. This condensed overview serves to correct common errors and improve research quality in general and in nutrition research specifically.

Area-Level Social Vulnerability and Severe COVID-19: A Case-Control Study Using Electronic Health Records from Multiple Health Systems in the Southeastern Pennsylvania Region

Knowledge about neighborhood characteristics that predict disease burden can be used to guide equity-based public health interventions or targeted social services. We used a case-control design to examine the association between area-level social vulnerability and severe COVID-19 using electronic health records (EHR) from a regional health information hub in the greater Philadelphia region. Severe COVID-19 cases (n = 15,464 unique patients) were defined as those with an inpatient admission and a diagnosis of COVID-19 in 2020. Controls (n = 78,600; 5:1 control-case ratio) were a random sample of individuals who did not have a COVID-19 diagnosis from the same geographic area. Retrospective data on comorbidities and demographic variables were extracted from EHR and linked to area-level social vulnerability index (SVI) data using ZIP codes. Models adjusted for different sets of covariates showed incidence rate ratios (IRR) ranging from 1.15 (95% CI, 1.13-1.17) in the model adjusted for individual-level age, sex, and marital status to 1.09 (95% CI, 1.08-1.11) in the fully adjusted model, which included individual-level comorbidities and race/ethnicity. The fully adjusted model indicates that a 10% higher area-level SVI was associated with a 9% higher risk of severe COVID-19. Individuals in neighborhoods with high social vulnerability were more likely to have severe COVID-19 after accounting for comorbidities and demographic characteristics. Our findings support initiatives incorporating neighborhood-level social determinants of health when planning interventions and allocating resources to mitigate epidemic respiratory diseases, including other coronavirus or influenza viruses.

Comparators in Pharmacovigilance: A Quasi-Quantification Bias Analysis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

It is unclear which comparator is the most appropriate for bias reduction in disproportionality analyses based on spontaneous reports. We conducted a quasi-quantitative bias analysis using two well-studied drug-event combinations to assess how different comparators influence the directionality of bias in pharmacovigilance.

METHODS

We used the US Food and Drug Administration Adverse Event Reporting System focusing on two drug-event combinations with a propensity for stimulated reporting: rivaroxaban and hepatotoxicity, and canagliflozin and acute kidney injury. We assessed the directionality of three disproportionality analysis estimates (reporting odds ratio, proportional reporting ratio, information component) using one unrestricted comparator (full data) and two restricted comparators (active comparator, active comparator with class exclusion). Analyses were conducted within two calendar time periods, defined based on external events (approval of direct oral anticoagulants, Food and Drug Administration safety warning on acute kidney injury with sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors) hypothesized to alter reporting rates.

RESULTS

There were no false-positive signals for rivaroxaban and hepatotoxicity irrespective of the comparator. Restricting to the initial post-approval period led to false-positive signals, with restricted comparators performing worse. There were false-positive signals for canagliflozin and acute kidney injury, with restricted comparators performing better. Restricting to the period before the Food and Drug Administration warning weakened the false-positive signal for canagliflozin and acute kidney injury across comparators.

CONCLUSIONS

We could not identify a consistent and predictable pattern to the directionality of disproportionality analysis estimates with specific comparators. Calendar time-based restrictions anchored on relevant external events had a considerable impact.

Assessing preconception exposure to environmental chemicals and fecundity: Strategies, challenges, and research priorities

In 2022, approximately one out of six people globally experienced infertility at some point in their life. Environmental chemicals, particularly those with endocrine disrupting activity, may contribute to impaired fecundity and infertility. We review existing prospective cohort studies of environmental chemicals and fecundity, identify methodological challenges and biases, and outline future research priorities. Studies of preconception environmental chemical exposures and fecundity have occurred in US, Singapore, China and Denmark with recruitment as early as 1982-1986, as recent as 2015-2017 and sample sizes ranging from 99 to 936. Higher exposure to certain chemicals (e.g. heavy metals, perfluoroalkyl substances) was associated with longer time to pregnancy; yet the literature is scarce or nonexistent for many chemicals. Furthermore, prospective studies face challenges and potential biases related to recruiting participants prior to conception, measuring environmental chemicals during critical windows of exposure, and ascertaining when pregnancy occurred. Research priorities include expanding the scope of biomonitoring data collected during the preconception period, continuing to develop and validate analytic methods for self-sampled biospecimens in traditional and novel matrices, collecting data in male partners and investigating etiologic associations according to indicators of marginalization.

Flawed MIREC fluoride and intelligence quotient publications: A failed attempt to undermine community water fluoridation

OBJECTIVE

To assess the evidence presented in a set of articles that use the Canadian Maternal-Infant Research on Environmental Chemicals (MIREC) study database to claim that community water fluoridation (CWF) is associated with harm to foetal and infant cognitive development.

METHODS

Critical appraisal of measurements and processes in the MIREC database, and articles derived therefrom. MIREC's cohort is approximately 2000 pregnant women recruited in 10 centres across Canada, 2008-2011, leading to measuring 512 children aged 3-6 years in six cities. Fluoride exposure was measured by city fluoridation status, self-reports and maternal spot urine samples. Intelligence Quotient (IQ) was measured using the Wechsler Preschool and Primary Scale of Intelligence (WPPSI-III) by different assessors in each city.

RESULTS

MIREC's fluoride and IQ measurements are invalid and therefore cannot support the claim that CWF is associated with IQ decline in children.

CONCLUSIONS

The MIREC fluoride-IQ articles' results should be considered unacceptable for legal and policy purposes; other water fluoridation studies and systematic reviews show no effect of fluoridation on cognition.

Time-resolved concentrations of serum amino acids, one-carbon metabolites and B-vitamin biomarkers during the postprandial and fasting state: the Postprandial Metabolism in Healthy Young Adults (PoMet) Study

Metabolomics has been utilised in epidemiological studies to investigate biomarkers of nutritional status and metabolism in relation to non-communicable diseases. However, little is known about the effect of prandial status on several biomarker concentrations. Therefore, the aim of this intervention study was to investigate the effect of a standardised breakfast meal followed by food abstinence for 24 h on serum concentrations of amino acids, one-carbon metabolites and B-vitamin biomarkers. Thirty-four healthy subjects (eighteen males and sixteen females) aged 20-30 years were served a breakfast meal (∼500 kcal) after which they consumed only water for 24 h. Blood samples were drawn before and at thirteen standardised timepoints after the meal. Circulating concentrations of most amino acids and metabolites linked to one-carbon metabolism peaked within the first 3 h after the meal. The branched-chain amino acids steadily increased from 6 or 8 hours after the meal, while proline decreased in the same period. Homocysteine and cysteine concentrations immediately decreased after the meal but steadily increased from 3 and 4 hours until 24 h. FMN and riboflavin fluctuated immediately after the meal but increased from 6 h, while folate increased immediately after the meal and remained elevated during the 24 h. Our findings indicate that accurate reporting of time since last meal is crucial when investigating concentrations of certain amino acids and one-carbon metabolites. Our results suggest a need for caution when interpretating studies, which utilise such biomarkers, but do not strictly control for time since the last meal.

Making causal inferences from transactional data: A narrative review of opportunities and challenges when implementing the target trial framework

The target trial framework has emerged as a powerful tool for addressing causal questions in clinical practice and in public health. In the healthcare sector, where decision-making is increasingly data-driven, transactional databases, such as electronic health records (EHR) and insurance claims, present an untapped potential for answering complex causal questions. This narrative review explores the potential of the integration of the target trial framework with real-world data to enhance healthcare decision-making processes. We outline essential elements of the target trial framework, and identify pertinent challenges in data quality, privacy concerns, and methodological limitations, proposing solutions to overcome these obstacles and optimize the framework's application.

Assessing cardiovascular disease risk in women with a history of hypertensive disorders of pregnancy: A guidance paper for studies using administrative data

BACKGROUND

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) are a major cause of maternal morbidity and mortality, and their association with increased cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk represents a major public health concern. However, assessing CVD risk in women with a history of these conditions presents unique challenges, especially when studies are carried out using routinely collected data.

OBJECTIVES

To summarise and describe key challenges related to the design and conduct of administrative studies assessing CVD risk in women with a history of HDP and provide concrete recommendations for addressing them in future research.

METHODS

This is a methodological guidance paper.

RESULTS

Several conceptual and methodological factors related to the data-generating mechanism and study conceptualisation, design/data management and analysis, as well as the interpretation and reporting of study findings should be considered and addressed when designing and carrying out administrative studies on this topic. Researchers should develop an a priori conceptual framework within which the research question is articulated, important study variables are identified and their interrelationships are carefully considered.

CONCLUSIONS

To advance our understanding of CVD risk in women with a history of HDP, future studies should carefully consider and address the conceptual and methodological considerations outlined in this guidance paper. In highlighting these challenges, and providing specific recommendations for how to address them, our goal is to improve the quality of research carried out on this topic.

Light exposure during sleep is bidirectionally associated with irregular sleep timing: The multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA)

Exposure to light at night (LAN) may influence sleep timing and regularity. Here, we test whether greater light exposure during sleep (LEDS) is bidirectionally associated with greater irregularity in sleep onset timing in a large cohort of older adults in cross-sectional and short-term longitudinal (days) analyses. Light exposure and activity patterns, measured via wrist-worn actigraphy (ActiWatch Spectrum), were analyzed in 1933 participants with 6+ valid days of data in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Exam 5 Sleep Study. Summary measures of LEDS averaged across nights were evaluated in linear and logistic regression analyses to test the association with standard deviation (SD) in sleep onset timing (continuous variable) and irregular sleep onset timing (SD > 90 min, binary). Night-to-night associations between LEDS and absolute differences in nightly sleep onset timing were also evaluated with distributed lag non-linear models and mixed models. In between-individual linear and logistic models adjusted for demographic, health, and seasonal factors, every 5-lux unit increase in LEDS was associated with a 7.8-min increase in sleep onset SD (β = 0.13 h, 95%CI:0.09-0.17) and 32% greater odds (OR = 1.32, 95%CI:1.17-1.50) of irregular sleep onset. In within-individual night-to-night mixed model analyses, every 5-lux unit increase in LEDS the night prior was associated with a 2.2-min greater deviation of sleep onset the next night (β = 0.036 h, p < 0.05). Conversely, every 1-h increase in sleep deviation was associated with a 0.35-lux increase in future LEDS (β = 0.348 lux, p < 0.05). LEDS was associated with greater irregularity in sleep onset in between-individual analyses and subsequent deviation in sleep timing in within-individual analyses, supporting a role for LEDS in irregular sleep onset timing. Greater deviation in sleep onset was also associated with greater future LEDS, suggesting a bidirectional relationship. Maintaining a dark sleeping environment and preventing LEDS may promote sleep regularity and following a regular sleep schedule may limit LEDS.

Poor oral health and dementia risk under time-varying confounding: A cohort study based on marginal structural models

BACKGROUND

Bidirectional association between oral health, including tooth loss and oral hypofunction, and cognitive impairment can induce time-varying confounding in association with dementia. This study aimed to investigate the association between oral health and the development of dementia among older adults, considering cognitive impairment as a time-varying confounder.

METHODS

This nine-year follow-up cohort study targeted independent older adults aged ≥65 years who participated in the Japan Gerontological Evaluation Study. The exposure variables were self-reported poor oral health (≤19 remaining teeth, edentulousness, chewing difficulty, swallowing problems, and xerostomia), which were assessed in 2010 and 2013. The outcome variable was the incidence of dementia between 2013 and 2019, which was obtained from the municipalities' administrative database. Furthermore, in 2010 and 2013, we considered cognitive impairment as a time-varying confounder and treated it based on a marginal structural model (MSM), including possible baseline confounders. Oral health and cognitive impairment were assessed using the items of Kihon checklist. We employed a Cox proportional hazards model with a stabilized inverse probability weight and estimated hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Among 37,556 participants (mean age: 72.8 years [1 SD = 5.5], males: 46.8%), the dementia incidence rate was 2.2/100 person-year. The proportions of those with ≤19 remaining teeth, edentulousness, chewing difficulty, swallowing problems, and xerostomia were 61.3%, 11.0%, 24.4%, 14.7%, and 19.2%, respectively. From the regression analysis based on MSM, ≤19 remaining teeth (HR = 1.12, 95% CI = 1.03-1.23), edentulousness (HR = 1.20, 95% CI = 1.09-1.32), chewing difficulty (HR = 1.11, 95% CI = 1.02-1.21), and xerostomia (HR = 1.10, 95% CI = 1.01-1.20) were significantly associated with an increased risk of dementia; however, swallowing problems were not significantly associated with dementia onset (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Even after considering time-varying confounding by cognitive function at baseline and follow-up, we observed significant associations between poor oral health and increased risk of dementia among older adults.

Risk of Dementia Among Patients With Diabetes in a Multidisciplinary, Primary Care Management Program

Importance

Although poorly controlled diabetes is associated with a higher incidence of dementia, few studies have examined the association of diabetes management interventions with dementia incidence.

Objective

To examine the association of receiving a multidisciplinary diabetes management program (the Risk Assessment and Management Program-Diabetes Mellitus [RAMP-DM]) that enables better glycemic control with subsequent risk of dementia incidence and the association of dementia with glycemic control.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This territory-wide, retrospective, matched cohort study with more than 8 years of follow-up was conducted using electronic health care records from all the patients who used public health care services in Hong Kong from 2011 to 2019. Eligible participants included all patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D) who were managed in primary care settings. Patients who received RAMP-DM were matched in a 1:1 ratio with patients who received usual care only. Data analysis occurred from April 2023 to July 2023.

Exposures

Diagnosis of T2D, hemoglobin A1C (HbA1C) level, and attendance at a general outpatient clinic or family medicine clinic. Patients received either RAMP-DM or usual care.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Incidence of all-cause dementia and subtypes of dementia were compared between the RAMP-DM and usual care participants using a Cox proportional hazard model with other baseline characteristics, biomarkers, and medication history adjusted. HbA1C levels were measured as a secondary outcome.

Results

Among the 55 618 matched participants (mean [SD] age, 62.28 [11.90] years; 28 561 female [51.4%]; 27 057 male [48.6%]), including the 27 809 patients in the RAMP-DM group and 27 809 patients in the usual care group, patients had been diagnosed with T2D for a mean (SD) of 5.90 (4.20) years. During a median (IQR) follow-up period of 8.4 (6.8-8.8) years, 1938 patients in the RAMP-DM group (6.97%) and 2728 patients in the usual care group (9.81%) received a diagnosis of dementia. Compared with those receiving usual care, RAMP-DM participants had a lower risk of developing all-cause dementia (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.72; 95% CI, 0.68-0.77; P < .001), Alzheimer disease (aHR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.76-0.96; P = .009), vascular dementia (aHR, 0.61; 95% CI, 0.51-0.73; P < .001), and other or unspecified dementia (aHR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.66-0.77; P < .001). Compared with having a mean HbA1C level during the first 3 years after cohort entry between 6.5% and 7.5%, a higher risk of dementia incidence was detected for patients with a 3-year mean HbA1C level greater than 8.5% (aHR, 1.54; 95% CI, 1.31-1.80]), between 7.5% and 8.5% (aHR, 1.33; 95% CI, 1.19-1.48), between 6% and 6.5% (aHR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.07-1.29), and 6% or less (aHR, 1.39; 95% CI, 1.24-1.57).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of patients with T2D, the findings strengthened evidence of an association of glycemic control with dementia incidence, and revealed that a multidisciplinary primary care diabetes management program was associated with beneficial outcomes for T2D patients against dementia and its major subtypes. A moderate glycemic control target of HbA1C between 6.5% and 7.5% was associated with lower dementia incidence.

Body mass index trajectories and mortality risk in Japan using a population-based prospective cohort study: the Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have found that long-term changes in weight during adulthood are associated with a high risk of mortality. The objective of this study was to characterize body mass index (BMI) trajectories during adulthood and to examine the association between BMI trajectories and risk of death in the Japanese population.

METHODS

The data were extracted from Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study-a population-based prospective cohort study in Japan with participants aged 40-69 years followed over 20 years. The participants were categorized into multiple BMI trajectory groups using the latent class growth model. The Cox proportional-hazards model was conducted using all-cause mortality and cause-specific mortality as outcomes and the identified BMI trajectory groups as a predictor. In total, 65 520 participants were included in the analysis.

RESULTS

Six BMI trajectory groups were identified: underweight stable (Group 1), low-to-high normal (Group 2), high-to-low normal (Group 3), normal to overweight (Group 4), overweight to normal (Group 5) and normal to obese (Group 6). Our Cox models showed a higher hazard (risk) of all-cause mortality among participants in the BMI-declining groups [Group 3, adjusted hazard ratio (aHR): 1.10, 95% CI: 1.05-1.16; Group 5, aHR: 1.16, 95% CI: 1.08-1.26], underweight stable group (Group 1, aHR: 1.27, 95% CI: 1.21-1.33) and normal to obese group (Group 6, aHR: 1.22, 95% CI: 1.13-1.33) than Group 2 (low-to-high normal BMI trajectory).

CONCLUSIONS

Stable underweight and weight loss were associated with a high risk of mortality, both of which were uniquely observed in a Japanese population.

Validity of individual self-report oral health measures in assessing periodontitis for causal research applications

BACKGROUND

Self-reported measures of periodontitis developed for use in population surveillance are increasingly used in causal research. Numerous studies evaluate the validity of these measures against clinical parameters of periodontitis, yet few include validation parameters outside of multivariable models. Individual item validity is necessary to adequately inform use of these measures in causal research.

METHODS

We used data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 2011-2014 in which dentate participants completed full-mouth periodontal examinations (N = 6966). We evaluated six self-report questionnaire items related to periodontal disease status against periodontitis case definitions developed by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and American Academy of Periodontology (CDC-AAP). We estimated the sensitivity and specificity of individual items using severe and moderate-to-severe periodontitis classifications. We additionally combined items to evaluate the validity of joint measures.

RESULTS

Sensitivity was highest when measures were evaluated against severe periodontitis. Self-rated oral health of fair/poor demonstrated the highest sensitivity for severe (0.60) and moderate-to-severe periodontitis (0.48). Specificity was highest when evaluated against moderate-to-severe periodontitis, with self-reported history of tooth mobility as the most specific measure (0.87 for severe disease; 0.92 for moderate-to-severe) followed by a history of bone loss (0.88 for severe; 0.91 for moderate-to-severe). Combining questions generally improved specificity at the expense of sensitivity.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings related to item-specific validity and the associated clinical profiles facilitate needed considerations for the use of self-reported measures of periodontitis in causal research. Additionally, item-specific validity can be used to inform assessments of misclassification bias within such investigations.

Short Interpregnancy Intervals Among Women Experiencing Homelessness in Colorado

Importance

Short interpregnancy intervals (SIPIs) are associated with increased risk of adverse maternal and neonatal outcomes. Disparities exist across socioeconomic status, but there is little information on SIPIs among women experiencing homelessness.

Objective

To investigate (1) differences in rates and characteristics of SIPIs between women experiencing homelessness and domiciled women, (2) whether the association of homelessness with SIPIs differs across races and ethnicities, and (3) whether the association between SIPIs of less than 6 months (very short interpregnancy interval [VSIPIs]) and maternal and neonatal outcomes differs between participant groups.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cohort study used a Colorado statewide database linking the Colorado All Payer Claims Database, Homeless Management Information System, death records, and infant birth records. Participants included all women who gave birth between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2021. Data were analyzed from September 1, 2022, to May 10, 2023.

Exposures

Homelessness and race and ethnicity.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The primary outcome consisted of SIPI, a binary variable indicating whether the interval between delivery and conception of the subsequent pregnancy was shorter than 18 months. The association of VSIPI with maternal and neonatal outcomes was also tested.

Results

A total of 77 494 women (mean [SD] age, 30.7 [5.3] years) were included in the analyses, of whom 636 (0.8%) were women experiencing homelessness. The mean (SD) age was 29.5 (5.4) years for women experiencing homelessness and 30.7 (5.3) years for domiciled women. In terms of race and ethnicity, 39.3% were Hispanic, 7.3% were non-Hispanic Black, and 48.4% were non-Hispanic White. Associations between homelessness and higher odds of SIPI (adjusted odds ratio [AOR], 1.23 [95% CI, 1.04-1.46]) were found. Smaller associations between homelessness and SIPI were found among non-Hispanic Black (AOR, 0.59 [95% CI, 0.37-0.96]) and non-Hispanic White (AOR, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.39-0.84]) women compared with Hispanic women. A greater association of VSIPI with emergency department visits and low birth weight was found among women experiencing homelessness compared with domiciled women, although no significant differences were detected.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cohort study of women who gave birth from 2016 to 2021, an association between homelessness and higher odds of SIPIs was found. These findings highlight the importance of conception management among women experiencing homelessness. Racial and ethnic disparities should be considered when designing interventions.

Association of cumulative loneliness with all-cause mortality among middle-aged and older adults in the United States, 1996 to 2019

Loneliness is a growing public health concern worldwide. We characterized the association between cumulative loneliness and subsequent all-cause mortality, using data from 9,032 participants aged 50+ in the population-based US Health and Retirement Study (HRS) from 1996 to 2019. Loneliness status (yes; no) was measured biennially from 1996 to 2004, and we categorized the experience of cumulative loneliness over the 8-y period as never, one time point, two time points, and ≥three time points. A multivariable-adjusted age-stratified Cox proportional hazards regression model was fitted to examine the association between cumulative loneliness from 1996 to 2004 and all-cause mortality from 2004 to 2019. Excess deaths due to each category of cumulative loneliness were calculated. Compared to those who never reported loneliness from 1996 to 2004, participants experiencing loneliness at one time point, two time points, and ≥three time points respectively had 1.05 (95% CI: 0.96 to 1.15), 1.06 (95% CI: 0.95 to 1.19), and 1.16 (95% CI: 1.02 to 1.33) times higher hazards of mortality from 2004 to 2019 (P trend = 0.01). These results correspond to 106 (95% CI: 68 to 144), 202 (95% CI: 146 to 259), and 288 (95% CI: 233 to 343) excess deaths per 10,000 person-years, for those experiencing loneliness at each of one, two, or ≥three time points from 1996 to 2004. Cumulative loneliness in mid-to-later life may thus be a mortality risk factor with a notable impact on excess mortality. Loneliness may be an important target for interventions to improve life expectancy in the United States.

Post hoc analysis of the SONAR trial: potential analgesic effects of atrasentan?

Chan et al. conducted a post hoc analysis of the Study of Diabetic Nephropathy with Atrasentan (SONAR) to demonstrate that atrasentan reduced chronic pain-related adverse events reported by investigators and the initiation of analgesics. This study creates an interesting hypothesis, but it is limited in that the pain information was collected as part of the adverse events and the presence/absence of pain at baseline was unknown. Thus, prospective clinical trials are required to confirm these findings.

Adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet in midlife and development in weight or waist circumference after five years in a Danish cohort

Purpose

The EAT-Lancet reference diet has been proposed as a healthy dietary pattern to reduce food-related climate impacts, but little is known regarding associations with bodyweight development. This study investigated adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet in midlife and development in weight and waist circumference (WC) after five years.

Design

The Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort recruited participants in 1993-1997. At baseline, data on diet, lifestyle, and anthropometry were collected. Participants self-reported weight and WC five years later. In total, 44,194 participants were included in analyses of weight (43,678 for WC). Baseline adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet was scored 0-14 points. Multiple linear regression was used to estimate associations between the EAT-Lancet diet and development in weight and WC after five years. Poisson regression was used to estimate risk ratios (RR) of obesity (≥30 kg/m2) or elevated WC.

Results

Adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet was not associated with follow-up weight, adjusting for baseline weight and confounders (11-14 vs 0-7 points β: -0.08, 95% CI: -0.27, 0.11 kg), but was associated with lower follow-up WC adjusting for baseline WC and confounders (β: -0.38, 95% CI: -0.69, -0.07 cm), and was associated with lower risk of obesity and elevated WC (RR 0.89, 95% CI: 0.82, 0.98, and 0.95, 95% CI: 0.93, 0.96, respectively).

Conclusion

Adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet in midlife was associated with lower WC but not weight after five years follow up, taking baseline into account. Our findings suggest that greater adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet does not contribute to development of obesity.

Association of health behaviors, dietary habits, and oral health with weight gain after 20 years of age in community-dwelling Japanese individuals aged 40 years and older: a cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

This cross-sectional study investigated the factors associated with weight gain ≥ 10 kg after 20 years of age in the general Japanese population, with a focus on the number of teeth.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

We included individuals aged ≥ 40 years from Yamagata prefecture, Japan from 2017-2021. A postal survey was conducted using a self-administered questionnaire; 5,940 participants were included in the final analysis. The questionnaire included items on lifestyle factors, medical history, physical and mental conditions, oral health, and dietary intake. A multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify independent associations between weight gain ≥ 10 kg after 20 years of age and various parameters; adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated.

RESULTS

Less than 20 teeth, male sex, drinking habit frequency, eating very fast or fast, and a higher frequency of eating-away-from-home were significant factors associated with weight gain ≥ 10 kg after 20 years of age; individuals with < 20 versus > 20 teeth exhibited a 1.35-fold higher OR (95% CI 1.15-1.59; p < 0.01).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that having < 20 teeth may affect weight gain ≥ 10 kg after 20 years of age. However, owing to the cross-sectional study design, causality could not be determined. Therefore, maintaining healthy lifestyle behaviors to avoid tooth loss may also affect weight gain ≥ 10 kg after 20 years of age.

CLINICAL RELEVANCE

Having < 20 teeth has the potential to affect long-term weight gain after 20 years of age.

Census Tracts Are Not Neighborhoods: Addressing Spatial Misalignment in Studies Examining the Impact of Historical Redlining on Present-day Health Outcomes

BACKGROUND

Research examining the effects of historical redlining on present-day health outcomes is often complicated by the misalignment of contemporary census boundaries with the neighborhood boundaries drawn by the US Home Owners' Loan Corporation (HOLC) in the 1930s. Previous studies have used different approaches to assign historical HOLC grades to contemporary geographies, but how well they capture redlining exposure is unknown.

METHODS

Our analysis included 7711 residences identified in the Multiple Listing Service database in Atlanta, Georgia (2017-2022). We evaluated the classification of HOLC grade assignment (A, B, C, D, or ungraded) when assigning exposure under four area-level approaches (centroid, majority land area, weighted score, and highest HOLC) compared with using complete address data (gold standard). We additionally compared approaches across three 2020 census geographies (tract, block group, and block).

RESULTS

When comparing the use of census tracts to complete address data, sensitivity was highest for the weighted score approach, which correctly identified 77% of residences in truly A-D graded neighborhoods as compared with the majority land area (44%), centroid (54%), and highest HOLC (59%) approaches. Regarding specificity, the majority land area approach best-classified residences in truly ungraded neighborhoods (93%) as compared with the weighted score (65%), centroid (81%), and highest HOLC (54%) approaches. Classification improved regardless of approach when using census block compared with the census tract.

CONCLUSIONS

Misclassification of historical redlining exposure is inevitable when using contemporary census geographies rather than complete address data. This study provides a framework for assessing spatial misalignment and selecting an approach for classification.

Light exposure during sleep is associated with irregular sleep timing: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Objective

Exposure to light at night (LAN) may influence sleep timing and regularity. Here, we test whether greater light exposure during sleep (LEDS) associates with greater irregularity in sleep onset timing in a large cohort of older adults.

Methods

Light exposure and activity patterns, measured via wrist-worn actigraphy (ActiWatch Spectrum), were analyzed in 1,933 participants with 6+ valid days of data in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) Exam 5 Sleep Study. Summary measures of LEDS averaged across nights were evaluated in linear and logistic regression analyses to test the association with standard deviation (SD) in sleep onset timing (continuous variable) and irregular sleep onset timing (SD≥1.36 hours, binary). Night-to-night associations between LEDS and absolute differences in nightly sleep onset timing were also evaluated with distributed lag non-linear models and mixed models.

Results

In between-individual linear and logistic models adjusted for demographic, health, and seasonal factors, every 5-lux unit increase in LEDS was associated with an increase of 7.8 minutes in sleep onset SD (β=0.13 hours, 95%CI:0.09-0.17) and 40% greater odds (OR=1.40, 95%CI:1.24-1.60) of irregular sleep onset. In within-individual night-to-night mixed model analyses, every 5-lux unit increase in LEDS the night prior (lag0) was associated with a 2.2-minute greater deviation of sleep onset the next night (β=0.036 hours, p<0.05). Conversely, every 1-hour increase in sleep deviation (lag0) was associated with a 0.35-lux increase in future LEDS (β=0.347 lux, p<0.05).

Conclusion

LEDS was associated with greater irregularity in sleep onset in between-individual analyses and subsequent deviation in sleep timing in within-individual analyses, supporting a role for LEDS in exacerbating irregular sleep onset timing. Greater deviation in sleep onset was also associated with greater future LEDS, suggesting a bidirectional relationship. Maintaining a dark sleeping environment and preventing LEDS may promote sleep regularity and following a regular sleep schedule may limit LEDS.

Leisure-Time Physical Activity and Risk of Microvascular Complications in Individuals With Type 2 Diabetes: A UK Biobank Study

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to determine dose-response associations, including the minimal effective level, between leisure-time physical activity and risk of incident neuropathy, nephropathy, and retinopathy.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

This cohort study included 18,092 individuals with type 2 diabetes from the UK Biobank. Self-reported leisure-time physical activity was converted into MET-hours per week. Participants were categorized into no physical activity (0 MET-h/week), below recommendations (0-7.49 MET-h/week), at recommendations (7.5-14.9 MET-h/week), and above recommendations (≥15 MET-h/week). Microvascular complications were identified from hospital inpatient records using diagnosis codes. We used Cox proportional hazards regression analysis to calculate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and restricted cubic splines to identify the minimal effective level of physical activity.

RESULTS

During a median follow-up of 12.1 years, 672 individuals (3.7%) were diagnosed with neuropathy, 1,839 (10.2%) with nephropathy, and 2,099 (11.7%) with retinopathy. Any level of physical activity was associated with a lower risk of neuropathy and nephropathy but not retinopathy. Compared with those reporting no physical activity, the aHR of neuropathy was 0.71 (95% CI 0.53, 0.90) below recommendations, 0.73 (0.56, 0.96) at recommendations, and 0.67 (0.52, 0.87) above recommendations. Corresponding aHRs for nephropathy were 0.79 (0.68, 0.92), 0.80 (0.67, 0.95), and 0.80 (0.68, 0.95). The association with retinopathy was weaker, with aHRs of 0.91 (0.78, 1.06), 0.91 (0.77, 1.08), and 0.98 (0.84, 1.15), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Any level of leisure-time physical activity was associated with a lower risk of neuropathy and nephropathy but not retinopathy in individuals with type 2 diabetes. For both neuropathy and nephropathy, the minimal effective physical activity level may correspond to <1.5 h of walking per week.

Healthcare use and clinical investigations before a diagnosis of ovarian cancer: a register-based study in Denmark

BACKGROUND

Ovarian cancer (OC) is associated with a poor prognosis, which calls for earlier diagnosis. This study aimed to analyse the health care use in primary care and at hospitals among women with OC compared to non-cancerous women to identify a window of opportunity for earlier diagnosis.

METHODS

This nationwide register-based observational cohort study included all Danish women aged ≥ 40 years who were diagnosed with a first-time OC or borderline ovarian tumour in 2012-2018 and with no previous cancer diagnosis (n = 4,255). For each case, ten non-cancerous women were identified (n = 42,550). We estimated monthly incidence rate ratios using a negative binomial regression model to assess the use of health care services. We calculated risk ratios of having multiple contacts to general practice before a diagnosis using a binary regression model.

RESULTS

Cases had statistically significantly higher contact rates to general practice from five months prior to the diagnosis compared to references. From six to eight months prior to diagnosis, an increased use of transvaginal ultrasound and gynaecologist was seen for cases compared to references.

CONCLUSIONS

Increased healthcare use was seen relatively closely to the time of diagnosis for women with OC. This indicates a narrow window of opportunity for a timelier diagnosis. Still, the use of specialised assessment increased at six to eight months before the diagnosis. When women present unspecific symptoms, awareness of potential ovarian malignancies and safety-netting by the general practitioner may be pivotal.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Not relevant.

Association of male fatty acid intake with fecundability among couples planning pregnancy

STUDY QUESTION

To what extent is male fatty acid intake associated with fecundability among couples planning pregnancy?

SUMMARY ANSWER

We observed weak positive associations of male dietary intakes of total and saturated fatty acids with fecundability; no other fatty acid subtypes were appreciably associated with fecundability.

WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY

Male fatty acid intake has been associated with semen quality in previous studies. However, little is known about the extent to which male fatty acid intake is associated with fecundability among couples attempting spontaneous conception.

STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION

We conducted an internet-based preconception prospective cohort study of 697 couples who enrolled during 2015-2022. During 12 cycles of observation, 53 couples (7.6%) were lost to follow-up.

PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS

Participants were residents of the USA or Canada, aged 21-45 years, and not using fertility treatment at enrollment. At baseline, male participants completed a food frequency questionnaire from which we estimated intakes of total fat and fatty acid subtypes. We ascertained time to pregnancy using questionnaires completed every 8 weeks by female participants until conception or up to 12 months. We used proportional probabilities regression models to estimate fecundability ratios (FRs) and 95% CIs for the associations of fat intakes with fecundability, adjusting for male and female partner characteristics. We used the multivariate nutrient density method to account for energy intake, allowing for interpretation of results as fat intake replacing carbohydrate intake. We conducted several sensitivity analyses to assess the potential for confounding, selection bias, and reverse causation.

MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE

Among 697 couples, we observed 465 pregnancies during 2970 menstrual cycles of follow-up. The cumulative incidence of pregnancy during 12 cycles of follow-up after accounting for censoring was 76%. Intakes of total and saturated fatty acids were weakly, positively associated with fecundability. Fully adjusted FRs for quartiles of total fat intake were 1.32 (95% CI 1.01-1.71), 1.16 (95% CI 0.88-1.51), and 1.43 (95% CI 1.09-1.88) for the second, third, and fourth vs the first quartile, respectively. Fully adjusted FRs for saturated fatty acid intake were 1.21 (95% CI 0.94-1.55), 1.16 (95% CI 0.89-1.51), and 1.23 (95% CI 0.94-1.62) for the second, third, and fourth vs the first quartile, respectively. Intakes of monounsaturated, polyunsaturated, trans-, omega-3, and omega-6 fatty acids were not strongly associated with fecundability. Results were similar after adjustment for the female partner's intakes of trans- and omega-3 fats.

LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION

Dietary intakes estimated from the food frequency questionnaire may be subject to non-differential misclassification, which is expected to bias results toward the null in the extreme categories when exposures are modeled as quartiles. There may be residual confounding by unmeasured dietary, lifestyle, or environmental factors. Sample size was limited, especially in subgroup analyses.

WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS

Our results do not support a strong causal effect of male fatty acid intakes on fecundability among couples attempting to conceive spontaneously. The weak positive associations we observed between male dietary fat intakes and fecundability may reflect a combination of causal associations, measurement error, chance, and residual confounding.

STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S)

The study was funded by the National Institutes of Health, grant numbers R01HD086742 and R01HD105863. In the last 3 years, PRESTO has received in-kind donations from Swiss Precision Diagnostics (home pregnancy tests) and Kindara.com (fertility app). L.A.W. is a consultant for AbbVie, Inc. M.L.E. is an advisor to Sandstone, Ro, Underdog, Dadi, Hannah, Doveras, and VSeat. The other authors have no competing interests to report.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

N/A.

Triglycerides and risk of cardiovascular events in statin-treated patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes: a Danish cohort study

BACKGROUND

Elevated triglyceride levels are a clinically useful marker of remnant cholesterol. It is unknown whether triglycerides are associated with residual cardiovascular risk in CVD-naïve patients with newly diagnosed type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), who are already on statin therapy. We aimed to assess the association between triglyceride levels and risk of major cardiovascular events (MACE) in statin-treated patients with newly diagnosed T2DM managed in routine clinical care.

METHODS

This cohort study included newly diagnosed T2DM patients without a previous diagnosis of cardiovascular disease in Northern Denmark during 2005-2017. Individual triglyceride levels while on statin treatment were assessed within 1 year after T2DM diagnosis. The primary outcome was a composite of myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or cardiac death (MACE). Patients were followed from one year after T2DM diagnosis until 30 April 2021, MACE, emigration, or death. We used Cox regression to compute hazard ratios (HRs) controlling for confounding factors.

RESULTS

Among 27,080 statin-treated patients with T2DM (median age 63 years; 53% males), triglyceride levels were < 1.0 mmol/L in 17%, 1.0-1.9 mmol/L in 52%, 2.0-2.9 mmol/L in 20%, and ≥ 3.0 mmol/L in 11%. During follow-up, 1,957 incident MACE events occurred (11.0 per 1000 person-years). Compared with triglyceride levels < 1.0 mmol/L, confounder-adjusted HRs for incident MACE were 1.14 (95% CI 1.00-1.29) for levels between 1.0 and 1.9 mmol/L, 1.30 (95% CI 1.12-1.51) for levels between 2.0 and 2.9 mmol/L, and 1.44 (95% CI 1.20-1.73) for levels ≥ 3.0 mmol/L. This association was primarily driven by higher rates of myocardial infarction and cardiac death and attenuated only slightly after additional adjustment for LDL cholesterol. Spline analyses confirmed a linearly increasing risk of MACE with higher triglyceride levels. Stratified analyses showed that the associations between triglyceride levels and MACE were stronger among women.

CONCLUSIONS

In statin-treated patients with newly diagnosed T2DM, triglyceride levels are associated with MACE already from 1.0 mmol/L. This suggests that high triglyceride levels are a predictor of residual cardiovascular risk in early T2DM and could be used to guide allocation of additional lipid-lowering therapies for CVD prevention.

Use of Chemical Hair Straighteners and Fecundability in a North American Preconception Cohort

Chemical hair straighteners ("relaxers") are used by millions of North Americans, particularly women of color. Hair relaxers may contain endocrine-disrupting compounds, which can harm fertility. We evaluated the association between hair relaxer use and fecundability among 11,274 participants from Pregnancy Study Online (PRESTO), a North American preconception cohort study. During 2014-2022, participants completed a baseline questionnaire in which they reported their history of relaxer use and completed follow-up questionnaires every 8 weeks for 12 months or until pregnancy, whichever came first. We used multivariable-adjusted proportional probabilities regression models to estimate fecundability ratios (FRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Relative to never use, fecundability was lower among current (FR = 0.81, 95% CI: 0.64, 1.03) and former (FR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.81, 0.98) users of hair relaxers. FRs for first use of hair relaxers at ages <10, 10-19, and ≥20 years were 0.73 (95% CI: 0.55, 0.96), 0.93 (95% CI: 0.83, 1.04), and 0.85 (95% CI: 0.74, 0.98), respectively. Fecundability was lowest among those with longer durations of use (≥10 years vs. never: FR = 0.71, 95% CI: 0.54, 0.91) and more frequent use (≥5 times/year vs. never: FR = 0.82, 95% CI: 0.60, 1.11), but associations were nonmonotonic. In this preconception cohort study, use of chemical hair straighteners was associated with slightly reduced fecundability.

Maternal and Paternal Household Pesticide Exposure During Pregnancy and Risk of Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate whether risk estimates for childhood acute lymphoblastic leukemia change when restricting model comparison groups to "nonpesticide exposure" (NPE10) households.

METHODS

Cases ( n = 1810) 15 years or younger were identified through Children's Cancer Group institutions between 1989 and 1993 and age-/sex-matched to controls ( n = 1951). Household pesticide use during pregnancy/month prior was collected via telephone. NPE10 comparison group reporting no parental exposure to 10 pesticide classes was identified.

RESULTS

Adjusted odds ratios increased from 15% to 49% when limiting the comparison to NPE10. Maternal termite insecticide exposure was associated with greatest risk (adjusted odds ratio, 4.21; 95% confidence interval, 2.00-8.88). There was minimal evidence of interaction by child sex or occupational pesticide exposure, and no monotonic dose-response pattern with frequency of use (times per year).

CONCLUSIONS

Elevated risks are consistent with published pooled-/meta-analyses and DNA damage. The consistency and magnitude of these associations warrant product labeling, exposure reduction interventions, or both.

Concordance between clinical outcomes in the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial and in the electronic health record

BACKGROUND

Randomized trials are the gold standard for generating clinical practice evidence, but follow-up and outcome ascertainment are resource-intensive. Electronic health record (EHR) data from routine care can be a cost-effective means of follow-up, but concordance with trial-ascertained outcomes is less well-studied.

METHODS

We linked EHR and trial data for participants of the Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial (SPRINT), a randomized trial comparing intensive and standard blood pressure targets. Among participants with available EHR data concurrent to trial-ascertained outcomes, we calculated sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value for EHR-recorded cardiovascular disease (CVD) events, using the gold standard of SPRINT-adjudicated outcomes (myocardial infarction (MI)/acute coronary syndrome (ACS), heart failure, stroke, and composite CVD events). We additionally compared the incidence of non-CVD adverse events (hyponatremia, hypernatremia, hypokalemia, hyperkalemia, bradycardia, and hypotension) in trial versus EHR data.

RESULTS

2468 SPRINT participants were included (mean age 68 (SD 9) years; 26% female). EHR data demonstrated ≥80% sensitivity and specificity, and ≥ 99% negative predictive value for MI/ACS, heart failure, stroke, and composite CVD events. Positive predictive value ranged from 26% (95% CI; 16%, 38%) for heart failure to 52% (95% CI; 37%, 67%) for MI/ACS. EHR data uniformly identified more non-CVD adverse events and higher incidence rates compared with trial ascertainment.

CONCLUSIONS

These results support a role for EHR data collection in clinical trials, particularly for capturing laboratory-based adverse events. EHR data may be an efficient source for CVD outcome ascertainment, though there is clear benefit from adjudication to avoid false positives.

Adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet is associated with a lower risk of type 2 diabetes: the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort

PURPOSE

Type 2 diabetes is a global health problem. While a healthy diet lowers risk of type 2 diabetes, less is known about diets with low climate impact. This study aimed to investigate adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet and risk of type 2 diabetes in a Danish setting.

METHODS

In the Danish Diet, Cancer and Health cohort, dietary data were collected using a validated 192-item food frequency questionnaire, at recruitment in 1993-1997. In total, 54,232 participants aged 50-64 years at baseline with no previous cancer or diabetes diagnoses were included in the current analyses. The EAT-Lancet diet score was used to assess adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet. Participants scored 0 (non-adherence) or 1 (adherence) point for each of the 14 dietary components of the diet score (range 0-14 points). Participants were followed through register linkage until type 2 diabetes diagnosis or censoring. Hazard ratios and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models.

RESULTS

During a median 15-year follow-up period, 7130 participants developed type 2 diabetes. The hazard ratio for developing type 2 diabetes was 0.78 (95% CI 0.71; 0.86) for those with highest EAT-Lancet diet scores (11-14 points) compared to those with lowest scores (0-7 points) after adjusting for potential confounders. After further adjusting for potential mediators, including BMI, the corresponding hazard ratio was 0.83 (95% CI 0.76; 0.92).

CONCLUSION

Greater adherence to the EAT-Lancet diet was associated with a lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes in a middle-aged Danish population.

Estimating the effect of anticipated depression treatment-related stigma on depression remission among people with noncommunicable diseases and depressive symptoms in Malawi

PURPOSE

While mental health stigma research is sparse in Malawi, research in other settings suggests that stigma represents a barrier to mental health treatment and recovery. Accordingly, we conducted an analysis to understand the role of treatment-related stigma in depression care in Malawi by estimating the effect of patients' baseline anticipated treatment-related stigma on their 3-month probability of depression remission when newly identified with depression.

METHODS

We conducted depression screening and treatment at 10 noncommunicable disease (NCD) clinics across Malawi from April 2019 through December 2021. Eligible cohort participants were 18-65 years with depressive symptoms indicated by a PHQ-9 score ≥5. Questionnaires at the baseline and 3-month interviews included a vignette-based quantitative stigma instrument that measured treatment-related stigma, i.e., concerns about external stigma because of receiving depression treatment. Using inverse probability weighting to adjust for confounding and multiple imputation to account for missing data, this analysis relates participants' baseline levels of anticipated treatment stigma to the 3-month probability of achieving depression remission (i.e., PHQ-9 score < 5).

RESULTS

Of 743 included participants, 273 (37%) achieved depression remission by their 3-month interview. The probability of achieving depression remission at the 3-month interview among participants with high anticipated treatment stigma (0.31; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.23, 0.39)) was 10 percentage points lower than among the low/neutral stigma group (risk: 0.41; 95% CI: 0.36, 0.45; RD: -0.10; 95% CI: -0.19, -0.003).

CONCLUSION

In Malawi, a reduction in anticipated depression treatment-related stigma among NCD patients initiating depression treatment could improve depression outcomes. Further investigation is necessary to understand the modes by which stigma can be successfully reduced to improve mental health outcomes and quality of life among people living with depression.

Prenatal and postnatal exposure to PM2 .5 and the risk of tic disorders

BACKGROUND

Tic disorders are common neurodevelopmental disorders during childhood. Whether prenatal and postnatal exposure to particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 μm (PM_2.5 ) plays a role in the development of tic disorders remains unexplored.

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the association of exposure between PM_2.5 during the pregnancy and infancy periods and the risk of tic disorders.

METHODS

This birth cohort study recruited singleton live births at term gestations in central Taiwan from the Taiwan Maternal and Child Health Database between 2004 and 2012 and followed up to the end of 2017. New cases of tic disorders were defined using the ICD-9-CM (307.2) and ICD-10-CM (F95), which include all tic spectrum disorders. We assigned daily PM_2.5 concentrations derived from a satellite-based model to individuals based on maternal residential addresses at delivery. We fit Cox proportional hazard model and distributed lag non-linear model to estimate the associations between PM_2.5 and tic disorders, with hazard ratio (HR) with 95% confidence interval (CI) as the effect measure.

RESULTS

Of the 309,376 singleton live births at term gestations, we identified 5902 (1.9%) tic disorder cases. The HR of tic disorders was positively associated with a 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 : during pregnancy HR 1.09, 95% CI 1.04, 1.15 and during infancy HR 1.12, 95% CI 1.06, 1.18. The vulnerable time window for infants with increased risk of tic disorders was 6-52 weeks after birth. We observed a nonlinear relationship between PM_2.5 and the risk of tic disorders, with exposure to PM_2.5 between 16 and 64 μg/m³ being associated with the risk of tic disorders. The association was restricted to Tourette's disorder group. Infant sex did not modify these associations.

CONCLUSIONS

Infants delivered at term and exposed to PM2.5 are associated with an increased risk of tic disorders (6-52 weeks). Further studies are needed to confirm these associations.

Long-term adherence to healthful and unhealthful plant-based diets and breast cancer risk overall and by hormone receptor and histologic subtypes among postmenopausal females

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies assessing the influence of vegetarian diets on breast cancer (BC) risk have produced inconsistent results. Few studies have assessed how the incremental decrease in animal foods and the quality of plant foods are linked with BC.

OBJECTIVES

Disentangle the influence of plant-based diet quality on BC risk between postmenopausal females.

METHODS

Total of 65,574 participants from the E3N (Etude Epidémiologique auprès de femmes de la Mutuelle Générale de l'Education Nationale) cohort were followed from 1993-2014. Incident BC cases were confirmed through pathological reports and classified into subtypes. Cumulative average scores for healthful (hPDI) and unhealthful (uPDI) plant-based diet indices were developed using self-reported dietary intakes at baseline (1993) and follow-up (2005) and divided into quintiles. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate adjusted HR and 95% CI.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 21 y, 3968 incident postmenopausal BC cases were identified. There was a nonlinear association between adherence to hPDI and BC risk (Pnonlinear < 0.01). Compared to participants with low adherence to hPDI, those with high adherence had a lower BC risk [HRQ3 compared withQ1 (95% CI): 0.79 (0.71, 0.87) and HRQ4 compared with Q1 (95% CI): 0.78 (0.70, 0.86)]. In contrast, higher adherence to unhealthful was associated with a linear increase in BC risk [Pnonlinear = 0.18; HRQ5 compared with Q1 (95% CI): 1.20 (1.08, 1.33); Ptrend < 0.01]. Associations were similar according to BC subtypes (Pheterogeneity > 0.05 for all).

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term adherence to healthful plant foods with some intake of unhealthy plant and animal foods may reduce BC risk with an optimal risk reduction in the moderate intake range. Adherence to an unhealthful plant-based diet may increase BC risk. These results emphasize the importance of the quality of plant foods for cancer prevention. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov (NCT03285230).

Association between household composition and severe COVID-19 outcomes in older people by ethnicity: an observational cohort study using the OpenSAFELY platform

BACKGROUND

Ethnic differences in the risk of severe COVID-19 may be linked to household composition. We quantified the association between household composition and risk of severe COVID-19 by ethnicity for older individuals.

METHODS

With the approval of NHS England, we analysed ethnic differences in the association between household composition and severe COVID-19 in people aged 67 or over in England. We defined households by number of age-based generations living together, and used multivariable Cox regression stratified by location and wave of the pandemic and accounted for age, sex, comorbidities, smoking, obesity, housing density and deprivation. We included 2 692 223 people over 67 years in Wave 1 (1 February 2020-31 August 2020) and 2 731 427 in Wave 2 (1 September 2020-31 January 2021).

RESULTS

Multigenerational living was associated with increased risk of severe COVID-19 for White and South Asian older people in both waves [e.g. Wave 2, 67+ living with three other generations vs 67+-year-olds only: White hazard ratio (HR) 1.61 95% CI 1.38-1.87, South Asian HR 1.76 95% CI 1.48-2.10], with a trend for increased risks of severe COVID-19 with increasing generations in Wave 2. There was also an increased risk of severe COVID-19 in Wave 1 associated with living alone for White (HR 1.35 95% CI 1.30-1.41), South Asian (HR 1.47 95% CI 1.18-1.84) and Other (HR 1.72 95% CI 0.99-2.97) ethnicities, an effect that persisted for White older people in Wave 2.

CONCLUSIONS

Both multigenerational living and living alone were associated with severe COVID-19 in older adults. Older South Asian people are over-represented within multigenerational households in England, especially in the most deprived settings, whereas a substantial proportion of White older people live alone. The number of generations in a household, number of occupants, ethnicity and deprivation status are important considerations in the continued roll-out of COVID-19 vaccination and targeting of interventions for future pandemics.

Invited Commentary: Is Bias Towards the Null From Nondifferential Misclassification Wishful Thinking?

In their article, Yland et al. (Am J Epidemiol. 2022;191(8):1485-1495) bring renewed attention to the oft-cited heuristic "nondifferential misclassification biases results towards the null." They make a compelling case, as others have before, that this heuristic is misguided. Herein, I briefly discuss the history of this heuristic, discuss why I believe it became and stayed popular, and note the very limited circumstances for which it may be appropriate.

A Case of Asthenozoospermia Following COVID-19 Infection

Purpose

Studies pertaining to the effect of COVID-19 infection on male fertility are scarce. This case report describes a case of transient asthenozoospermia, absence of sperm motility, following a moderately severe COVID-19 infection.

Case

A couple presenting for infertility treatment due to low ovarian reserve presented for their second intrauterine insemination (IUI). Their first IUI was performed 1 month earlier when the semen parameters were normal. A couple of weeks before the second IUI, the unvaccinated 48-year-old male partner contracted COVID-19 and was admitted to the hospital for several days. He received IV Remdesivir and continuous oxygen by nasal cannula. His hospitalization did not require intubation or intensive care unit admission. He was discharged after 12 days of hospitalization without home oxygen treatment. On the day of the second IUI, the semen analysis showed a normal sperm count with 0% motility. Three months following his COVID-19 diagnosis, a repeat semen analysis showed restored normal parameters with more than 40% motility.

Conclusion

This aim of this report is to increase awareness that moderate COVID-19 requiring hospitalization could affect, though temporarily, sperm motility and should be considered in the differential diagnosis when male infertility is encountered.