Does temperature modify the association between air pollution and mortality? A multicity case-crossover analysis in Italy

Methods to Advance Climate Science in Respiratory Health: Satellite-Based Environmental Modeling for Temperature Exposure Assessment in Epidemiological Studies

Climate change is a major concern with significant impacts on human health including respiratory outcomes, particularly through changes in air temperature. The rise in global temperature has led to an increase in heat waves and extreme weather events, which pose serious risks to respiratory health. Accurately assessing the effects of air temperature on respiratory health requires a comprehensive approach that incorporates fine-scale exposure assessment to characterize the geospatial environment impacting population health. Recent advances in open-source earth observation data have allowed for improved exposure assessment through temperature modeling.

Modification of heat-related effects on mortality by air pollution concentration, at small-area level, in the Attica prefecture, Greece

BACKGROUND

The independent effects of short-term exposure to increased air temperature and air pollution on mortality are well-documented. There is some evidence indicating that elevated concentrations of air pollutants may lead to increased heat-related mortality, but this evidence is not consistent. Most of these effects have been documented through time-series studies using city-wide data, rather than at a finer spatial level. In our study, we examined the possible modification of the heat effects on total and cause-specific mortality by air pollution at municipality level in the Attica region, Greece, during the warm period of the years 2000 to 2016.

METHODS

A municipality-specific over-dispersed Poisson regression model during the warm season (May-September) was used to investigate the heat effects on mortality and their modification by air pollution. We used the two-day average of the daily mean temperature and daily mean PM10, NO2 and 8 hour-max ozone (O3), derived from models, in each municipality as exposures. A bivariate tensor smoother was applied for temperature and each pollutant alternatively, by municipality. Α random-effects meta-analysis was used to obtain pooled estimates of the heat effects at different pollution levels. Heterogeneity of the between-levels differences of the heat effects was evaluated with a Q-test.

RESULTS

A rise in mean temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile of the municipality-specific temperature distribution resulted in an increase in total mortality of 12.4% (95% Confidence Interval (CI):7.76-17.24) on low PM10 days, and 21.25% (95% CI: 17.83-24.76) on high PM10 days. The increase on mortality was 10.09% (95% CI: - 5.62- 28.41) on low ozone days, and 14.95% (95% CI: 10.79-19.27) on high ozone days. For cause-specific mortality an increasing trend of the heat effects with increasing PM10 and ozone levels was also observed. An inconsistent pattern was observed for the modification of the heat effects by NO2, with higher heat effects estimated in the lower level of the pollutant.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results support the evidence of elevated heat effects on mortality at higher levels of PM10 and 8 h max O3. Under climate change, any policy targeted at lowering air pollution levels will yield significant public health benefits.

How does global warming contribute to disorders originating from an impaired epithelial barrier?

The epithelial barrier represents the point of contact between the host and the external environment. It is the first line of defense against external insults in the skin and in the gastrointestinal and upper and lower respiratory tracts. The steep increase in chronic disorders in recent decades, including allergies and autoimmune disorders, has prompted studies to investigate the immune mechanisms of their underlying pathogeneses, all of which point to a thought-provoking shared finding: disrupted epithelial barriers. Climate change with global warming has increased the frequency of unpredictable extreme weather events, such as wildfires, droughts, floods, and aberrant and longer pollination seasons, among many others. These increasingly frequent natural disasters can synergistically damage the epithelial barrier integrity in the presence of environmental pollution. A disrupted epithelial barrier induces proinflammatory activation of epithelial cells and alarmin production, namely, epithelitis. The "opened" epithelial barrier facilitates the entry of the external exposome into and underneath the epithelium, triggering an expulsion response driven by inflammatory cells in the area and chronic inflammation. These changes are associated with microbial dysbiosis with colonizing opportunistic pathogens and decreased commensals. These cellular and molecular events are key mechanisms in the pathogenesis of numerous chronic inflammatory disorders. This review summarizes the impact of global warming on epithelial barrier functions in the context of allergic diseases. Further studies in the impact of climate change on the dysfunction of the epithelial barriers are warranted to improve our understanding of epithelial barrier-related diseases and raise awareness of the environmental insults that pose a threat to our health.

Global warming and heat wave risks for cardiovascular diseases: A position paper from the Portuguese Society of Cardiology

Global warming is a result of the increased emission of greenhouse gases. The consequences of this climate change threaten society, biodiversity, food and resource availability. The consequences include an increased risk of cardiovascular (CV) disease and cardiovascular mortality. In this position paper, we summarize the data from the main studies that assess the risks of a temperature increase or heat waves in CV events (CV mortality, myocardial infarction, heart failure, stroke, and CV hospitalizations), as well as the data concerning air pollution as an enhancer of temperature-related CV risks. The data currently support global warming/heat waves (extreme temperatures) as cardiovascular threats. Achieving neutrality in emissions to prevent global warming is essential and it is likely to have an effect in the global health, including the cardiovascular health. Simultaneously, urgent steps are required to adapt the society and individuals to this new climatic context that is potentially harmful for cardiovascular health. Multidisciplinary teams should plan and intervene healthcare related to temperature changes and heat waves and advocate for a change in environmental health policy.

The association of long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution with all-cause GP visits and hospital admissions by ethnicity and country of birth in the United Kingdom

BACKGROUND

Air pollution is associated with poor health. Yet, more research is needed to reveal the association of long-term exposure to outdoor air pollution with less studied health outcomes like hospital admissions and general-practitioner (GP) visits and whether this association is stronger for ethnic minorities compared to the rest of population. This study investigates the association between air pollution and all-cause GP visits and hospital admissions by ethnicity in the United-Kingdom (UK).

METHODS

We used individual-level longitudinal data from the "UK Household Longitudinal Study" including 46,442 adult individuals who provided 140,466 responses across five years (2015-2019). This data was linked to yearly concentrations of NO2, SO2, and particulate-matter (PM10, PM2.5) outdoor pollution using the Lower Super Output Area (LSOA) of residence for each individual. Multilevel mixed-effects ordered logistic models were used to assess the association between air pollution and all-cause GP visits and hospital admissions.

RESULTS

We found higher odds of hospital admissions per 1 μg/m3 increase in annual concentrations of NO2 (OR = 1.008; 95%CI = 1.004-1.012), SO2 (OR = 1.048; 95%CI = 1.014-1.083), PM10 (OR = 1.011; 95%CI = 1.003-1.018), and PM2.5 (OR = 1.018; 95%CI = 1.007-1.029) pollutants. Higher odds of GP visits were also observed with increased exposure to NO2 (OR = 1.010; 95%CI = 1.006-1.014) and SO2 (OR = 1.114; 95%CI = 1.077-1.152) pollutants. The observed associations did not differ across ethnic groups, but by country of birth, they were more pronounced in individuals born outside UK than those born in UK.

CONCLUSION

This study supports an association between higher exposure to outdoor air pollution and increased all-cause hospital admissions and GP visits. Further longitudinal studies with longer follow-up time periods may be able to reveal more definite conclusions on the influence of ethnicity on the association between long-term outdoor air pollution and both hospital admissions and GP visits.

Coupling the effects of extreme temperature and air pollution on non-accidental mortality in Rencheng, China

Background

Extreme temperatures and air pollution have raised widespread concerns about their impact on population health.

Aim

To explore the quantitative exposure risks of high/low temperatures and types of air pollutants on the health of various populations in urban areas in China, this study assessed the effects of temperature and air pollutants on daily non-accidental deaths in Rencheng District, Jining City, China from 2019 to 2021.

Methods

A combination of Poisson regression models and distributed lag non-linear models was used to examine the relationships between temperature, air pollutants, and daily non-accidental deaths. We found that temperature and air pollutants had a significant non-linear effect on non-accidental mortality. Both high and low temperatures had a noticeable impact on non-accidental deaths, with heat effects occurring immediately and lasting 2-3 days, while cold effects lasted for 6-12 days. The relative risks of non-accidental deaths from PM2.5, NO2, and SO2 were highest in winter and lowest in autumn. The relative risk of non-accidental deaths from O3 was highest in spring, with no significant variations in other seasons. Older adults (≥75) and outdoor workers were at the greatest risk from temperature and air pollutant exposure.

Conclusions/interpretation

Exposure to extreme temperatures and air pollutants in the Rencheng District was associated with an increased mortality rate. Under the influence of climate change, it is necessary for policymakers to take measures to reduce the risk of non-accidental deaths among residents.

Climate change and respiratory disease: clinical guidance for healthcare professionals

Climate change is one of the major public health emergencies with already unprecedented impacts on our planet, environment and health. Climate change has already resulted in substantial increases in temperatures globally and more frequent and extreme weather in terms of heatwaves, droughts, dust storms, wildfires, rainstorms and flooding, with prolonged and altered allergen and microbial exposure as well as the introduction of new allergens to certain areas. All these exposures may have a major burden on patients with respiratory conditions, which will pose increasing challenges for respiratory clinicians and other healthcare providers. In addition, complex interactions between these different factors, along with other major environmental risk factors (e.g. air pollution), will exacerbate adverse health effects on the lung. For example, an increase in heat and sunlight in urban areas will lead to increases in ozone exposure among urban populations; effects of very high exposure to smoke and pollution from wildfires will be exacerbated by the accompanying heat and drought; and extreme precipitation events and flooding will increase exposure to humidity and mould indoors. This review aims to bring respiratory healthcare providers up to date with the newest research on the impacts of climate change on respiratory health. Respiratory clinicians and other healthcare providers need to be continually educated about the challenges of this emerging and growing public health problem and be equipped to be the key players in solutions to mitigate the impacts of climate change on patients with respiratory conditions.

Educational aims

To define climate change and describe major related environmental factors that pose a threat to patients with respiratory conditions.To provide an overview of the epidemiological evidence on climate change and respiratory diseases.To explain how climate change interacts with air pollution and other related environmental hazards to pose additional challenges for patients.To outline recommendations to protect the health of patients with respiratory conditions from climate-related environmental hazards in clinical practice.To outline recommendations to clinicians and patients with respiratory conditions on how to contribute to mitigating climate change.

Temperature modifies the effects of air pollutants on respiratory diseases

Increasing studies have reported temperature modification effects on air pollutants-induced respiratory diseases. In the current study, daily data of respiratory emergency room visits (ERVs), meteorological factors, and concentrations of air pollutants were collected from 2013 to 2016 in Lanzhou, a northwest city in China. Daily average temperature was stratified into low (≤ 25 percentile, P₂₅), medium (25-75 percentile, P₂₅-P₇₅) and high (≥ 75 percentile, P₇₅) to explore how temperature modifies the effects of air pollutants (PM_2.5, PM₁₀, SO₂, and NO₂) on respiratory ERVs by using generalized additive Poisson regression model (GAM). Seasonal modification was also investigated. Results showed that (a) PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and NO₂ had the strongest effects on respiratory ERVs in low temperature; (b) males and 15-and-younger were more vulnerable in low temperature while females and those older than 46 years were highly affected in high temperature; (c) PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and NO₂ were mostly associated with the total and both males and females in winter, while SO₂ resulted in the highest risk for the total and males in autumn and females in spring. In conclusion, this study found significant temperature modification effects and seasonal differences on the risks of respiratory ERVs due to air pollutants in Lanzhou, China.

Daily changes in ambient air pollution concentrations and temperature and suicide mortality in Canada: Findings from a national time-stratified case-crossover study

INTRODUCTION

Worldwide, approximately 1900 people die by suicide daily. Daily elevations in air pollution and temperature have previously been linked to a higher risk of death from suicide. To date, there have been relatively few studies of air pollution and suicide, particularly at a national level. National analyses play an important role in shaping health policy to mitigate against adverse health outcomes.

METHODS

We used a time-stratified case-crossover study design to investigate the influence of short-term (i.e., day to day) interquartile range (IQR) increases in air pollutants (nitrogen dioxide [NO₂], ozone [O₃], and fine particulate matter [PM_2.5]) and temperature on suicide mortality in Canada between 2002 and 2015. For air pollution models, odds ratios (ORs) derived from conditional logistic regression models were adjusted for average daily temperature, and holidays. For temperature models, ORs were adjusted for holidays. Stratified analyses were undertaken by suicide type (non-violent and violent), sex, age, and season.

RESULTS

Analyses are based on 50,800 suicide deaths. Overall, temperature effects were stronger than those for air pollution. A same day IQR increase in temperature (9.6 °C) was associated with a 10.1% increase (95% confidence interval (CI): 9.0%-11.2%) of death from suicide. For 3-day average increase of O₃ (IQR = 14.1 ppb), PM_2.5 (IQR = 5.6 μg/m³) and NO₂ (IQR = 9.7 ppb) the corresponding risks were 4.7% (95% CI: 3.9, 5.6), 3.4% (95% CI: 3.0, 3.8), and 2.0% (95% CI: 1.1, 2.8), respectively. All pollutants showed stronger associations with suicide during the warmer season (April-September). Stratified analyses revealed stronger associations for both temperature and air pollution in women.

CONCLUSIONS

Daily increases in air pollution and temperature were found to increase the risk of death from suicide. Females, particularly during warmer season, were most vulnerable to these exposures. Policy decisions related to air pollution and climate change should consider effects on mental health.

Heat-related cardiorespiratory mortality: Effect modification by air pollution across 482 cities from 24 countries

BACKGROUND

Evidence on the potential interactive effects of heat and ambient air pollution on cause-specific mortality is inconclusive and limited to selected locations.

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the effects of heat on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality and its modification by air pollution during summer months (six consecutive hottest months) in 482 locations across 24 countries.

METHODS

Location-specific daily death counts and exposure data (e.g., particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 µm [PM2.5]) were obtained from 2000 to 2018. We used location-specific confounder-adjusted Quasi-Poisson regression with a tensor product between air temperature and the air pollutant. We extracted heat effects at low, medium, and high levels of pollutants, defined as the 5th, 50th, and 95th percentile of the location-specific pollutant concentrations. Country-specific and overall estimates were derived using a random-effects multilevel meta-analytical model.

RESULTS

Heat was associated with increased cardiorespiratory mortality. Moreover, the heat effects were modified by elevated levels of all air pollutants in most locations, with stronger effects for respiratory than cardiovascular mortality. For example, the percent increase in respiratory mortality per increase in the 2-day average summer temperature from the 75th to the 99th percentile was 7.7% (95% Confidence Interval [CI] 7.6-7.7), 11.3% (95%CI 11.2-11.3), and 14.3% (95% CI 14.1-14.5) at low, medium, and high levels of PM2.5, respectively. Similarly, cardiovascular mortality increased by 1.6 (95%CI 1.5-1.6), 5.1 (95%CI 5.1-5.2), and 8.7 (95%CI 8.7-8.8) at low, medium, and high levels of O3, respectively.

DISCUSSION

We observed considerable modification of the heat effects on cardiovascular and respiratory mortality by elevated levels of air pollutants. Therefore, mitigation measures following the new WHO Air Quality Guidelines are crucial to enhance better health and promote sustainable development.

Exploring the impact of particulate matter on mortality in coastal Mediterranean environments

Air pollution is one of the most important problems the world is facing nowadays, adversely affecting public health and causing millions of deaths every year. Particulate matter is a criteria pollutant that has been linked to increased morbidity, as well as all-cause and cause-specific mortality. However, this association remains under-investigated in smaller-size cities in the Eastern Mediterranean, which are also frequently affected by heat waves and dust storms. This study explores the impact of particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter ≤ 10 μm (PM₁₀) and ≤ 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) on mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular, respiratory) in two coastal cities in the Eastern Mediterranean; Thessaloniki, Greece and Limassol, Cyprus. Generalized additive Poisson models were used to explore overall and gender-specific associations, controlling for long- and short-term patterns, day of week and the effect of weather variables. Moreover, the effect of different lags, season, co-pollutants and dust storms on primary associations was investigated. A 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 resulted in 1.10 % (95 % CI: -0.13, 2.34) increase in cardiovascular mortality in Thessaloniki, and in 3.07 % (95 % CI: -0.90, 7.20) increase in all-cause mortality in Limassol on the same day. Additionally, significant positive associations were observed between PM_2.5 as well as PM₁₀ and mortality at different lags up to seven days. Interestingly, an association with dust storms was observed only in Thessaloniki, having a protective effect, while the gender-specific analysis revealed significant associations only for the males in both cities. The outcome of this study highlights the need of city- or county-specific public health interventions to address the impact of climate, population lifestyle behaviour and other socioeconomic factors that affect the exposure to air pollution and other synergistic effects that alter the effect of PM on population health.

Hourly personal temperature exposure and heart rate variability: A multi-center panel study in populations at intermediate to high-risk of cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Several studies reported temperature exposure was associated with altered cardiac automatic function, while this effect of temperature on hourly heart rate variability (HRV) among populations with cardiovascular risks was seldom addressed.

METHODS

We conducted this panel study in four Chinese cities with three repeated visits among 296 participants at intermediate to high-risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Real-time temperature level and 24-h ambulatory electrocardiogram were monitored during each seasonal visit. Linear mixed-effects models were used to investigate associations between individual temperature and HRV parameters, and the seasonal effects and circadian effect were also evaluated.

RESULTS

We found the overall downward trend of hourly HRV associated with acute exposure to higher temperature. For each 1 °C increment in temperature of 1-3 h prior to HRV measurements (lag 1-3 h), hourly standard deviation of normal-to-normal intervals (SDNN) decreased by 0.38% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.22, 0.54), 0.28% (95% CI: 0.12, 0.44), and 0.20% (95% CI: 0.04, 0.36), respectively. Similar inverse associations between temperature and HRV were observed in stratified analyses by temperature level. Inverse associations for cold and warm seasons were also observed, despite some effects gradually decreased and reversed in the warm season as lag times extended. Moreover, HRV showed a more significant reduction with increased temperature during daytime than nighttime. Percent change of hourly SDNN was -0.41% (95% CI: -0.62, -0.21) with 1 °C increment of lag 1 h during daytime, while few obvious changes were revealed during nighttime.

CONCLUSIONS

Generally, increasing temperature was significantly associated with reduced HRV. Inverse relationships for cold and warm seasons were also observed. Associations during daytime were much more prominent than nighttime. Our findings clarified the relationship of temperature with HRV and provided evidence for prevention approaches to alleviate cardiac automatic dysfunction among populations at intermediate to high-risk of CVD.

Identification of Health Effects of Complex Air Pollution in China

After the Chinese government introduced a series of policies to strengthen the control of air pollution, the concentration of particulate matter has decreased, but the concentration of ozone has increased, and the problem of complex air pollution still exists, posing a serious threat to public health. Therefore, disentangling the health effect of multi-pollutants has been a long-discussed challenge in China. To evaluate the adverse effects of complex air pollution, a generalized additive model was used to assess the health risks of different pollution types in eight metropolises in different climates in China from 2013 to 2016. Instead of directly introducing multiple pollutant concentrations, we integrated the concentration levels of PM_2.5, NO₂, and O₃ into a set of predictors by grouping methods and divided air pollution into three high single-pollutant types and four high multi-pollutant types to calculate mortality risk in different types. The comprehensive results showed that the impact of high multi-pollutant types on mortality risk was greater than that of high single-pollutant types. Throughout the study period, the high multi-pollutant type with high PM_2.5, NO₂, and O₃ and the high multi-pollutant type with high PM_2.5 and NO₂ were more associated with death, and the highest RRs were 1.129 (1.080, 1.181) and 1.089 (1.066, 1.113), respectively. In addition, the pollution types that most threaten people are different in different cities. These differences may be related to different pollution conditions, pollutant composition, and indoor-outdoor activity patterns in different cities. Seasonally, the risk of complex air pollution is greater in most cities in the warm season than in the cold season. This may be caused by the modifying effects of high temperature on pollutants in addition to different indoor-outdoor activity patterns in different seasons. The results also show that calculating the effect of individual air pollutants separately and adding them together may lead to an overestimation of the combined effect. It further highlights the urgency and need for air pollution health research to move towards a multi-pollutant approach that considers air pollution as a whole in the context of atmospheric abatement and global warming.

Impact of environmental factors on heat-associated mortalities in an urban desert region

The troubling trend of rising heat-associated mortalities in an urban desert region (Maricopa County, AZ, USA) has motivated us to explore the extent to which environmental factors may contribute to increased heat-health risks. Summertime data from 2010 to 2019 were used to construct a suite of models for daily heat-associated mortalities. The best-performing full model included the following predictors, ordered from strongest to weakest influence: daily average air temperature, average of previous 5 days daily average air temperature, year, day of year, average of previous 5 days daily average dew point temperature, average of previous 5 days daily average PM_2.5, and daily average PM₁₀. This full model exhibited a 5.39% reduction in mean absolute error in daily heat-associated mortalities as compared to the best-performing model that included only air temperature as an environmental predictor. The extent to which issued and modeled excessive heat warnings (from both the temperature only and full models) corresponded with heat-associated mortalities was also examined. Model hindcasts for 2020 and 2021 showed that the models were able to capture the high number of heat-associated mortalities in 2020, but greatly undercounted the highest yet observed number of heat-associated mortalities in 2021. Results from this study lend insights into environmental factors corresponding to an increased number of heat-associated mortalities and can be used for informing strategies towards reducing heat-health risks. However, as the best-performing model was unable to fully capture the observed number of heat-associated mortalities, continued scrutiny of both environmental and non-environmental factors affecting these observations is needed.

Roles of Ambient Temperature and PM2.5 on Childhood Acute Bronchitis and Bronchiolitis from Viral Infection

Studies have associated the human respiratory syncytial virus which causes seasonal childhood acute bronchitis and bronchiolitis (CABs) with climate change and air pollution. We investigated this association using the insurance claims data of 3,965,560 children aged ≤ 12 years from Taiwan from 2006−2016. The monthly average incident CABs increased with increasing PM2.5 levels and exhibited an inverse association with temperature. The incidence was 1.6-fold greater in January than in July (13.7/100 versus 8.81/100), declined during winter breaks (February) and summer breaks (June−August). The highest incidence was 698 cases/day at <20 °C with PM2.5 > 37.0 μg/m3, with an adjusted relative risk (aRR) of 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.97−1.04) compared to 568 cases/day at <20 °C with PM2.5 < 15.0 μg/m3 (reference). The incidence at ≥30 °C decreased to 536 cases/day (aRR = 0.95, 95% CI = 0.85−1.06) with PM2.5 > 37.0 μg/m3 and decreased further to 392 cases/day (aRR = 0.61, 95% CI = 0.58−0.65) when PM2.5 was <15.0 μg/m3. In conclusion, CABs infections in children were associated with lowered ambient temperatures and elevated PM2.5 concentrations, and the high PM2.5 levels coincided with low temperature levels. The role of temperature should be considered in the studies of association between PM2.5 and CABs.

Modification effects of seasonal and temperature variation on the association between exposure to nitrogen dioxide and ischemic stroke onset in Shenzhen, China

The independent associations of extreme temperature and ambient air pollutant with the admission to hospital and mortality of ischemic stroke have been widely investigated. However, knowledge about the modification effects of variation in season and temperature on the association between exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) and ischemic stroke onset is still limited. This study purposed to explore the effect of NO₂ on daily ischemic stroke onset modified by season and ambient temperature, and identify the potential population that susceptible to ischemic stroke onset connected with NO₂ and ambient temperature. Data on daily ischemic stroke counts, weather conditions, and ambient air pollutant concentrations in Shenzhen were collected between January 1, 2008, and December 31, 2014. The seasonal effect on the NO₂-associated onset was measured by a distributed-lag linear model. Furthermore, a generalized additive model that incorporated with stratification analyses was used to calculate the interactive effects between NO₂ and ambient temperature. During the winter, the average percentage increase in daily ischemic stroke onset for each 10 μg/m³ increment in NO₂ concentration on lagged 2 days was 3.05% (95% CI: 1.31-4.82%), while there was no statistically significant effect of NO₂ during summer. And the low-temperature days ([Formula: see text] mean temperature), with a 2.23% increase in incidence (95% CI: 1.18-3.29%) for the same concentration increase in NO₂, were significant higher than high temperature days ([Formula: see text] mean temperature). The modification effects of temperature on the study association were more pronounced in individuals aged 65 years or more and in males. The adverse health effects of NO₂ on ischemic stroke are more pronounced during winter or low temperature periods. Elderly adults or males presented higher risks with these exposures.

Clustering of Environmental Parameters and the Risk of Acute Myocardial Infarction

The association between days with similar environmental parameters and cardiovascular events is unknown. We investigate the association between clusters of environmental parameters and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) risk in Singapore. Using k-means clustering and conditional Poisson models, we grouped calendar days from 2010 to 2015 based on rainfall, temperature, wind speed and the Pollutant Standards Index (PSI) and compared the incidence rate ratios (IRR) of AMI across the clusters using a time-stratified case-crossover design. Three distinct clusters were formed with Cluster 1 having high wind speed, Cluster 2 high rainfall, and Cluster 3 high temperature and PSI. Compared to Cluster 1, Cluster 3 had a higher AMI incidence with IRR 1.04 (95% confidence interval 1.01–1.07), but no significant difference was found between Cluster 1 and Cluster 2. Subgroup analyses showed that increased AMI incidence was significant only among those with age ≥65, male, non-smokers, non-ST elevation AMI (NSTEMI), history of hyperlipidemia and no history of ischemic heart disease, diabetes or hypertension. In conclusion, we found that AMI incidence, especially NSTEMI, is likely to be higher on days with high temperature and PSI. These findings have public health implications for AMI prevention and emergency health services delivery during the seasonal Southeast Asian transboundary haze.

Effects of environmental parameters and their interactions on the spreading of SARS-CoV-2 in North Italy under different social restrictions. A new approach based on multivariate analysis

In 2020 North Italy suffered the SARS-CoV-2-related pandemic with a high number of deaths and hospitalization. The effect of atmospheric parameters on the amount of hospital admissions (temperature, solar radiation, particulate matter, relative humidity and wind speed) is studied through about 8 months (May-December). Two periods are considered depending on different conditions: a) low incidence of COVID-19 and very few regulations concerning personal mobility and protection ("free/summer period"); b) increasing incidence of disease, social restrictions and use of personal protections ("confined/autumn period"). The "hospitalized people in medical area wards/100000 residents" was used as a reliable measure of COVID-19 spreading and load on the sanitary system. We developed a chemometric approach (multiple linear regression analysis) using the daily incidence of hospitalizations as a function of the single independent variables and of their products (interactions). Eight administrative domains were considered (altogether 26 million inhabitants) to account for relatively homogeneous territorial and social conditions. The obtained models very significantly match the daily variation of hospitalizations, during the two periods. Under the confined/autumn period, the effect of non-pharmacologic measures (social distances, personal protection, etc.) possibly attenuates the virus diffusion despite environmental factors. On the contrary, in the free/summer conditions the effects of atmospheric parameters are very significant through all the areas. Particulate matter matches the growth of hospitalizations in areas with low chronic particulate pollution. Fewer hospitalizations strongly correspond to higher temperature and solar radiation. Relative humidity plays the same role, but with a lesser extent. The interaction between solar radiation and high temperature is also highly significant and represents surprising evidence. The solar radiation alone and combined with high temperature exert an anti-SARS-CoV-2 effect, via both the direct inactivation of virions and the stimulation of vitamin D synthesis, improving immune system function.

Ambient temperature and Covid-19 transmission: An evidence from a region of Iran based on weather station and satellite data

BACKGROUND

The SARS-CoV-2 virus pandemic is primarily transmitted by direct contact between infected and uninfected people, though, there are still many unknown factors influencing the survival and transmission of the virus. Air temperature is one of the main susceptible factors. This study aimed to explore the impact of air and land surface temperatures on Covid-19 transmission in a region of Iran.

METHOD

Daily Land Surface Temperature (LST) measured by satellite and Air Temperature measured by weather station were used as the predictors of Covid-19 transmission. The data were obtained from February 2020 to April 2021. Spatio-temporal kriging was used in order to predict LST in some days in which no image was recorded by the satellite. The validity of the predicted values was assessed by Bland-Altman technique. The impact of the predictors was analyzed by Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM). In addition to main effect of temperature, its linear as well as non-linear interaction effect with relative humidity were considered using Generalized Additive Model (GAM) and a bivariate response surface model. Sensitivity analyses were done to select models' parameters, autocorrelation model and function of associations.

RESULTS

The dose-response curve revealed that the impact of both predictors was not obvious, though, the risk of transmission tended to be positive due to low values of temperatures. Although the linear interaction effect was not statistically significant, but joint patterns showed that the impact of both LST and AT tended to be different when humidity values were changed.

CONCLUSION

However the findings suggested that both LST and AT were not statistically important predictors, but they tended to predict the Covid-19 transmission in some lags. Because of local based evidence, the wide confidence intervals and then non-significant values should be cautiously interpreted.

Cows as canaries: The effects of ambient air pollution exposure on milk production and somatic cell count in dairy cows

Exposure to air pollution, including criteria pollutants such as fine particulate matter (PM_2.5) and ozone (O₃), has been associated with morbidity and mortality in mammals. As a genetically homogenous population that is closely monitored for health, dairy cattle present a unique opportunity to assess the association between changes in air pollution and mammalian health. Milk yield decreases in the summer if temperature and humidity, measured by the Temperature Humidity Index (THI). As O₃ levels increase with warmer temperatures, and summer PM_2.5 may increase with wildfire smoke, dairy cows may serve as a useful sentinel species to evaluate subacute markers of inflammation and metabolic output and ambient pollution. Over two years, we assessed summertime O₃ and PM_2.5 concentrations from local US EPA air quality monitors into an auto-regressive mixed model of the association between THI and daily milk production data and bulk tank somatic cell count (SCC). In unadjusted models, a 10 unit increase THI was associated with 28,700 cells/mL (95% CI: 17,700, 39,690) increase in SCC. After controlling for ambient air pollutants, THI was associated with a 14,500 SCC increase (95% CI: 3,400, 25,680), a 48% decrease in effect compared to the crude model. Further, in fully adjusted models, PM_2.5 was associated with a 105,500 cells/mL (95% CI: 90,030, 121,050) increase in SCC. Similar results were found for milk production. Results were amplified when high PM_2.5 days (95th percentile of observed values) associated with wildfire smoke were removed from the analyses. Our results support the hypothesis that PM_2.5 confounds the relationships between THI and milk yield and somatic cell count. The results of this study can be used to inform strategies for intervention to mitigate these impacts at the dairy level and potentially contribute to a model where production animals can act as air quality sentinels.

Spatialization and Prediction of Seasonal NO2 Pollution Due to Climate Change in the Korean Capital Area through Land Use Regression Modeling

Urbanization is causing an increase in air pollution leading to serious health issues. However, even though the necessity of its regulation is acknowledged, there are relatively few monitoring sites in the capital metropolitan city of the Republic of Korea. Furthermore, a significant relationship between air pollution and climate variables is expected, thus the prediction of air pollution under climate change should be carefully attended. This study aims to predict and spatialize present and future NO₂ distribution by using existing monitoring sites to overcome deficiency in monitoring. Prediction was conducted through seasonal Land use regression modeling using variables correlated with NO₂ concentration. Variables were selected through two correlation analyses and future pollution was predicted under HadGEM-AO RCP scenarios 4.5 and 8.5. Our results showed a relatively high NO₂ concentration in winter in both present and future predictions, resulting from elevated use of fossil fuels in boilers, and also showed increments of NO₂ pollution due to climate change. The results of this study could strengthen existing air pollution management strategies and mitigation measures for planning concerning future climate change, supporting proper management and control of air pollution.

Combined effects of air pollution and extreme heat events among ESKD patients within the Northeastern United States

BACKGROUND

Increasing number of studies have linked air pollution exposure with renal function decline and disease. However, there is a lack of data on its impact among end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) patients and its potential modifying effect from extreme heat events (EHE).

METHODS

Fresenius Kidney Care records from 28 selected northeastern US counties were used to pool daily all-cause mortality (ACM) and all-cause hospital admissions (ACHA) counts. County-level daily ambient PM_2.5 and ozone (O₃) were estimated using a high-resolution spatiotemporal coupled climate-air quality model and matched to ESKD patients based on ZIP codes of treatment sites. We used time-stratified case-crossover analyses to characterize acute exposures using individual and cumulative lag exposures for up to 3 days (Lag 0-3) by using a distributed lag nonlinear model framework. We used a nested model comparison hypothesis test to evaluate for interaction effects between air pollutants and EHE and stratification analyses to estimate effect measures modified by EHE days.

RESULTS

From 2001 to 2016, the sample population consisted of 43,338 ESKD patients. We recorded 5217 deaths and 78,433 hospital admissions. A 10-unit increase in PM_2.5 concentration was associated with a 5% increase in ACM (rate ratio [RR_Lag0-3]: 1.05, 95% CI: 1.00-1.10) and same-day O₃ (RR_Lag0: 1.02, 95% CI: 1.01-1.03) after adjusting for extreme heat exposures. Mortality models suggest evidence of interaction and effect measure modification, though not always simultaneously. ACM risk increased up to 8% when daily ozone concentrations exceeded National Ambient Air Quality Standards established by the United States, but the increases in risk were considerably higher during EHE days across lag periods.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest interdependent effects of EHE and air pollution among ESKD patients for all-cause mortality risks. National level assessments are needed to consider the ESKD population as a sensitive population and inform treatment protocols during extreme heat and degraded pollution episodes.

The effect of air pollution when modified by temperature on respiratory health outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Respiratory diseases are a leading cause of mortality and morbidity, and are exacerbated by air pollution and temperature.

AIM

To assess published literature on the effect of air pollution modified by temperature on respiratory mortality and hospital admissions.

METHODS

We identified 26,656 papers in PubMed and Web of Science, up to March 2021, and selected for analysis; inclusion criteria included observational studies, short-term air pollution, and temperature exposure. Air pollutants considered were particulate matter with a diameter of 2.5 μg/m³, and 10 μg/m³ (PM_2.5, and PM₁₀), ozone (O₃), and nitrogen dioxide (NO₂). A random-effects model was used for our meta-analysis.

RESULTS

For respiratory mortality we found that when the effect PM₁₀ is modified by high temperatures there is an increased pooled Odds Ratio [OR, 95% Confidence Interval (CI)] of 1.021 (1.008 to 1.034) and for the effect of O₃ the pooled OR is 1.006 (1.001-1.012) during the warm season. For hospital admissions, the effects of PM₁₀ and O₃ respectively, during the warm season found an increased pooled OR of 1.011 (0.999-1.024), and 1.015 (0.995-1.036). In our analysis for low temperatures, results were inconsistent.

CONCLUSIONS

Exposure to air pollution when modified by high temperature is likely to increase the odds of respiratory mortality and hospital admissions. Analysis on the interaction effect of air pollution and temperature on health outcomes is a relatively new research field and results are largely inconsistent; therefore, further research is encouraged to establish a more conclusive conclusion on the strength and direction of this effect.

Modeling complex effects of exposure to particulate matter and extreme heat during pregnancy on congenital heart defects: A U.S. population-based case-control study in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVE

Research suggests gestational exposure to particulate matter ≤2.5 μm (PM2.5) and extreme heat may independently increase risk of birth defects. We investigated whether duration of gestational extreme heat exposure modifies associations between PM2.5 exposure and specific congenital heart defects (CHDs). We also explored nonlinear exposure-outcome relationships.

METHODS

We identified CHD case children (n = 2824) and non-malformed live-birth control children (n = 4033) from pregnancies ending between 1999 and 2007 in the National Birth Defects Prevention Study, a U.S. population-based multicenter case-control study. We assigned mothers 6-week averages of PM2.5 exposure during the cardiac critical period (postconceptional weeks 3-8) using the closest monitor within 50 km of maternal residence. We assigned a count of extreme heat days (EHDs, days above the 90th percentile of daily maximum temperature for year, season, and weather station) during this period using the closest weather station. Using generalized additive models, we explored logit-nonlinear exposure-outcome relationships, concluding logistic models were reasonable. We estimated joint effects of PM2.5 and EHDs on six CHDs using logistic regression models adjusted for mean dewpoint and maternal age, education, and race/ethnicity. We assessed multiplicative and additive effect modification.

RESULTS

Conditional on the highest observed EHD count (15) and at least one critical period day during spring/summer, each 5 μg/m3 increase in average PM2.5 exposure was significantly associated with perimembranous ventricular septal defects (VSDpm; OR: 1.54 [95% CI: 1.01, 2.41]). High EHD counts (8+) in the same population were positively, but non-significantly, associated with both overall septal defects and VSDpm. Null or inverse associations were observed for lower EHD counts. Multiplicative and additive effect modification estimates were consistently positive in all septal models.

CONCLUSIONS

Results provide limited evidence that duration of extreme heat exposure modifies the PM2.5-septal defects relationship. Future research with enhanced exposure assessment and modeling techniques could clarify these relationships.

Heat and cold-related morbidity risk in north-east of Iran: a time-stratified case crossover design

This study aimed to estimate morbidity risk/number attributed to air extreme temperatures using time-stratified case crossover study and distributed lag non-linear model in a region of Iran during 2015-2019. A time-stratified case crossover design based on aggregated exposure data was used in this study. In order to have no overlap bias in the estimations, a fixed and disjointed window by using 1-month strata was used in the design. A conditional Poisson regression model allowing for over dispersion (Quasi-Poisson) was applied into Distributed Lag Non-linear Model (DLNM). Different approaches were applied to estimate Optimum Temperature (OT). In the model, the interaction effect between temperature and humidity was assessed to see if the impact of heat or cold on Hospital Admissions (HAs) are different between different levels of humidity. The cumulative effect of heat during 21 days was not significant and it was the cold that had significant cumulative adverse effect on all groups. While the number of HAs attributed to any ranges of heat, including medium, high, extreme, and even all values were negligible, but a large number was attributable to cold values; about 10000 HAs were attributable to all values of cold temperature, of which about 9000 were attributed to medium range and about 1000 and less than 500 were attributed to high and extreme values of cold, respectively. This study highlights the need for interventions in cold seasons by policymakers. The results inform researchers as well as policy makers to address both men and women and elderly when any plan or preventive program is developed in the area under study.

The association between temperature and cause-specific mortality in the Klang Valley, Malaysia

This study aims to examine the relationship between daily temperature and mortality in the Klang Valley, Malaysia, over the period 2006-2015. A quasi-Poisson generalized linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) was used to estimate the association between the mean temperature and mortality categories (natural n=69,542, cardiovascular n= 15,581, and respiratory disease n=10,119). Particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter below 10 μm (PM₁₀) and surface ozone (O₃) was adjusted as a potential confounding factor. The relative risk (RR) of natural mortality associated with extreme cold temperature (1st percentile of temperature, 25.2 °C) over lags 0-28 days was 1.26 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.00, 1.60), compared with the minimum mortality temperature (28.2 °C). The relative risk associated with extremely hot temperature (99th percentile of temperature, 30.2 °C) over lags 0-3 days was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.02, 1.17). Heat effects were immediate whereas cold effects were delayed and lasted longer. People with respiratory diseases, the elderly, and women were the most vulnerable groups when it came to the effects of extremely high temperatures. Extreme temperatures did not dramatically change the temperature-mortality risk estimates made before and after adjustments for air pollutant (PM₁₀ and O₃) levels.

The Potential Impact of Smog Spell on Humans' Health Amid COVID-19 Rages

Rapid and unchecked industrialization and the combustion of fossil fuels have engendered a state of fear in urban settlements. Smog is a visible form of air pollution that arises due to the over-emissions of some primary pollutants like volatile organic compounds (VOCs), hydrocarbons, SO₂, NO, and NO₂ which further react in the atmosphere and give rise to toxic and carcinogenic secondary smog components. Smog reduces the visibility on roads and results in road accidents and cancellation of flights. Uptake of primary and secondary pollutants of smog is responsible for several deleterious diseases of which respiratory disorders, cardiovascular dysfunction, neurological disorders, and cancer are discussed here. Children and pregnant women are more prone to the hazards of smog. The worsening menace of smog on one hand and occurrence of pandemic i.e., COVID-19 on the other may increase the mortality rate. But the implementation of lockdown during pandemics has favored the atmosphere in some ways, which will be highlighted in the article. On the whole, the focus of this article will be on the dubious relationship between smog and coronavirus.

Suicide and Associations with Air Pollution and Ambient Temperature: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Given health threats of climate change, a comprehensive review of the impacts of ambient temperature and ar pollution on suicide is needed. We performed systematic literature review and meta-analysis of suicide risks associated with short-term exposure to ambient temperature and air pollution. Pubmed, Scopus, and Web of Science were searched for English-language publications using relevant keywords. Observational studies assessing risks of daily suicide and suicide attempts associated with temperature, particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤10 μm (PM₁₀) and ≤2.5 mm (PM_2.5), ozone (O₃), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), and carbon monoxide (CO) were included. Data extraction was independently performed in duplicate. Random-effect meta-analysis was applied to pool risk ratios (RRs) for increases in daily suicide per interquartile range (IQR) increase in exposure. Meta-regression analysis was applied to examine effect modification by income level based on gross national income (GNI) per capita, national suicide rates, and average level of exposure factors. In total 2274 articles were screened, with 18 studies meeting inclusion criteria for air pollution and 32 studies for temperature. RRs of suicide per 7.1 °C temperature was 1.09 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.13). RRs of suicide per IQR increase in PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and NO₂ were 1.02 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.05), 1.01 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.03), and 1.03 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.07). O₃, SO₂, and CO were not associated with suicide. RR of suicide was significantly higher in higher-income than lower-income countries (1.09, 95% CI: 1.07, 1.11 and 1.20, 95% CI: 1.14, 1.26 per 7.1 °C increased temperature, respectively). Suicide risks associated with air pollution did not significantly differ by income level, national suicide rates, or average exposure levels. Research gaps were found for interactions between air pollution and temperature on suicide risks.

Combined Effect of Hot Weather and Outdoor Air Pollution on Respiratory Health: Literature Review

Association between short-term exposure to ambient air pollution and respiratory health is well documented. At the same time, it is widely known that extreme weather events intrinsically exacerbate air pollution impact. Particularly, hot weather and extreme temperatures during heat waves (HW) significantly affect human health, increasing risks of respiratory mortality and morbidity. Concurrently, a synergistic effect of air pollution and high temperatures can be combined with weather–air pollution interaction during wildfires. The purpose of the current review is to summarize literature on interplay of hot weather, air pollution, and respiratory health consequences worldwide, with the ultimate goal of identifying the most dangerous pollution agents and vulnerable population groups. A literature search was conducted using electronic databases Web of Science, Pubmed, Science Direct, and Scopus, focusing only on peer-reviewed journal articles published in English from 2000 to 2021. The main findings demonstrate that the increased level of PM10 and O3 results in significantly higher rates of respiratory and cardiopulmonary mortality. Increments in PM2.5 and PM10, O3, CO, and NO2 concentrations during high temperature episodes are dramatically associated with higher admissions to hospital in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, daily hospital emergency transports for asthma, acute and chronic bronchitis, and premature mortality caused by respiratory disease. Excessive respiratory health risk is more pronounced in elderly cohorts and small children. Both heat waves and outdoor air pollution are synergistically linked and are expected to be more serious in the future due to greater climate instability, being a crucial threat to global public health that requires the responsible involvement of researchers at all levels. Sustainable urban planning and smart city design could significantly reduce both urban heat islands effect and air pollution.

Short-term exposure to air pollution and hospital admission for heart failure among older adults in metropolitan cities: a time-series study

PURPOSE

We aimed to investigate the association between air pollution concentration levels and hospital admissions for heart failure (HF) among older adults in metropolitan cities in South Korea.

METHODS

We used hospital admission data of 1.8 million older adults in seven metropolitan cities from 2008 to 2016, derived from the National Health Insurance Service of South Korea. Daily HF admission data were linked to air pollutants concentrations for the respective dates, including particulate matter less than 2.5 μm in size (PM_2.5), 10 μm (PM₁₀), sulfur dioxide (SO₂), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂), carbon monoxide (CO), and ozone. We estimated the association between air pollutants and daily HF admissions using quasi-Poisson generalized additive models for each city.

RESULTS

During the study period, 142,490 hospital admissions for HF were noted. Increases of 10 μg/m³ of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀, and 10 ppb of SO₂, NO₂, and CO were associated with an increased risk of HF admission by 0.93% ([95% confidence intervals 0.51-1.36], 0.55% [0.31-0.80], 6.04% [2.15-10.08], 1.10% [0.38-1.82], and 0.05% [0.01-0.09]), respectively, on the same day. Increases in mean exposure to PM_2.5, PM₁₀, and SO₂ for 8 days from the concurrent day were also significantly associated with HF admissions. During the warm season, the risk of HF admissions increased shortly after an increase in PM_2.5, whereas prolonged effects were observed during the cold season.

CONCLUSION

Our study suggests the adverse effects of air pollution on HF. Moreover, the evidence of seasonality may help tailor protection guidelines for older adults.

Climatic modification effects on the association between PM1 and lung cancer incidence in China

Background

Nationwide studies that examine climatic modification effects on the association between air pollution and health outcome are limited in developing countries. Moreover, few studies focus on PM1 pollution despite its greater health effect.

Objectives

This study aims to determine the modification effects of climatic factors on the associations between PM1 and the incidence rates of lung cancer for males and females in China.

Methods

We conducted a nationwide analysis in 345 Chinese counties (districts) from 2014 to 2015. Mean air temperature and relative humidity over the study period were used as the proxies of climatic conditions. In terms of the multivariable linear regression model, we examined climatic modification effects in the stratified and combined datasets according to the three-category and binary divisions of climatic factors. Moreover, we performed three sensitivity analyses to test the robustness of climatic modification effects.

Results

We found a stronger association between PM1 and the incidence rate of male lung cancer in counties with high levels of air temperature or relative humidity. If there is a 10 μg/m³ shift in PM1, then the change in male incidence rate relative to its mean was higher by 4.39% (95% CI: 2.19, 6.58%) and 8.37% (95% CI: 5.18, 11.56%) in the middle and high temperature groups than in the low temperature group, respectively. The findings of climatic modification effects were robust in the three sensitivity analyses. No significant modification effect was discovered for female incidence rate.

Conclusions

Male residents in high temperature or humidity counties suffer from a larger effect of PM1 on the incidence rate of lung cancer in China. Future research on air pollution-related health impact assessment should consider the differential air pollution effects across different climatic conditions.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-10912-8.

Synergistic health effects of air pollution, temperature, and pollen exposure: a systematic review of epidemiological evidence

BACKGROUND

Exposure to heat, air pollution, and pollen are associated with health outcomes, including cardiovascular and respiratory disease. Studies assessing the health impacts of climate change have considered increased exposure to these risk factors separately, though they may be increasing simultaneously for some populations and may act synergistically on health. Our objective is to systematically review epidemiological evidence for interactive effects of multiple exposures to heat, air pollution, and pollen on human health.

METHODS

We systematically searched electronic literature databases (last search, April 29, 2019) for studies reporting quantitative measurements of associations between at least two of the exposures and mortality from any cause and cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and mortality specifically. Following the Navigation Guide systematic review methodology, we evaluated the risk of bias of individual studies and the overall quality and strength of evidence.

RESULTS

We found 56 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Of these, six measured air pollution, heat, and pollen; 39 measured air pollution and heat; 10 measured air pollution and pollen; and one measured heat and pollen. Nearly all studies were at risk of bias from exposure assessment error. However, consistent exposure-response across studies led us to conclude that there is overall moderate quality and sufficient evidence for synergistic effects of heat and air pollution. We concluded that there is overall low quality and limited evidence for synergistic effects from simultaneous exposure to (1) air pollution, pollen, and heat; and (2) air pollution and pollen. With only one study, we were unable to assess the evidence for synergistic effects of heat and pollen.

CONCLUSIONS

If synergistic effects between heat and air pollution are confirmed with additional research, the health impacts from climate change-driven increases in air pollution and heat exposure may be larger than previously estimated in studies that consider these risk factors individually.

Interaction Effects of Air Pollution and Climatic Factors on Circulatory and Respiratory Mortality in Xi'an, China between 2014 and 2016

Several studies have reported that air pollution and climatic factors are major contributors to human morbidity and mortality globally. However, the combined interactive effects of air pollution and climatic factors on human health remain largely unexplored. This study aims to investigate the interactive effects of air pollution and climatic factors on circulatory and respiratory mortality in Xi’an, China. Time-series analysis and the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM) were employed as the study design and core statistical method. The interaction relative risk (IRR) and relative excess risk due to interaction (RERI) for temperature and Air Quality Index (AQI) interaction on circulatory mortality were 0.973(0.969, 0.977) and −0.055(−0.059, −0.048), respectively; while for relative humidity and AQI interaction, 1.098(1.011, 1.072) and 0.088(0.081, 0.107) respectively, were estimated. Additionally, the IRR and RERI for temperature and AQI interaction on respiratory mortality were 0.805(0.722, 0.896) and −0.235(−0.269, −0.163) respectively, while 1.008(0.965, 1.051) and −0.031(−0.088, 0.025) respectively were estimated for relative humidity and AQI interaction. The interaction effects of climatic factors and AQI were synergistic and antagonistic in relation to circulatory and respiratory mortality, respectively. Interaction between climatic factors and air pollution contributes significantly to circulatory and respiratory mortality.

Population exposure to particulate-matter and related mortality due to the Portuguese wildfires in October 2017 driven by storm Ophelia

In October 2017, hundreds of wildfires ravaged the forests of the north and centre of Portugal. The fires were fanned by strong winds as tropical storm Ophelia swept the Iberian coast, dragging up smoke (together with Saharan dust from north-western Africa) into higher western European latitudes. Here we analyse the long-range transport of particulate matter (PM₁₀) and study associations between PM₁₀ and short-term mortality in the Portuguese population exposed to PM₁₀ due to the October 2017 wildfires, the worst fire sequence in the country over the last decades. We analysed space- and ground-level observations to track the smoke plume and dust trajectory over Portugal and Europe, and to access PM₁₀ concentrations during the wildfires. The effects of PM₁₀ on mortality were evaluated using satellite data for exposure and Poisson regression models. The smoke plume covered most western European countries (including Spain, France, Belgium and the Netherlands), and reached the United Kingdom, where the population was exposed in average to an additional PM₁₀ level of 11.7 µg/m³ during seven smoky days (three with dust) in relation to the reference days (days without smoke or dust), revealing the impact of the wildfires on distant populations. In Portugal, the population was exposed in average to additional PM₁₀ levels that varied from 16.2 to 120.6 µg/m³ in smoky days with dust and from 6.1 to 20.9 µg/m³ in dust-free smoky days. Results suggest that PM₁₀ had a significant effect on the same day natural and cardiorespiratory mortalities during the month of October 2017. For every additional 10 µg/m³ of PM₁₀, there was a 0.89% (95% confidence interval, CI, 0-1.77%) increase in the number of natural deaths and a 2.34% (95% CI, 0.99-3.66%) increase in the number of cardiorespiratory-related deaths. With rising temperatures and a higher frequency of storms due to climate change, PM from Iberian wildfires together with NW African dust will tend to be more often transported into Northern European countries, which may carry health threats to areas far from the ignition sites.

The Mortality Risk and Socioeconomic Vulnerability Associated with High and Low Temperature in Hong Kong

(1) Background: The adverse health effect associated with extreme temperature has been extensively reported in the current literature. Some also found that temperature effect may vary among the population with different socioeconomic status (SES), but found inconsistent results. Previous studies on the socioeconomic vulnerability of temperature effect were mainly achieved by multi-city or country analysis, but the large heterogeneity between cities may introduce additional bias to the estimation. The linkage between death registry and census in Hong Kong allows us to perform a city-wide analysis in which the study population shares virtually the same cultural, lifestyle and policy environment. This study aims to examine and compare the high and low temperature on morality in Hong Kong, a city with a subtropical climate and address a key research question of whether the extreme high and low temperature disproportionally affects population with lower SES. (2) Methods: Poisson-generalized additive models and distributed-lagged nonlinear models were used to examine the association between daily mortality and daily mean temperature between 2007–2015 with other meteorological and confounding factors controlled. Death registry was linked with small area census and area-level median household income was used as the proxy for socioeconomic status. (3) Results: 362,957 deaths during the study period were included in the analysis. The minimum mortality temperature was found to be 28.9 °C (82nd percentile). With a subtropical climate, the low temperature has a stronger effect than the high temperature on non-accidental, cardiovascular, respiratory and cancer deaths in Hong Kong. The hot effect was more pronounced in the first few days, while cold effect tended to last up to three weeks. Significant heat effect was only observed in the lower SES groups, whilst the extreme low temperature was associated with significantly higher mortality risk across all SES groups. The older population were susceptible to extreme temperature, especially for cold. (4) Conclusions: This study raised the concern of cold-related health impact in the subtropical region. Compared with high temperature, low temperature may be considered a universal hazard to the entire population in Hong Kong rather than only disproportionally affecting people with lower SES. Future public health policy should reconsider the strategy at both individual and community levels to reduce temperature-related mortality.

Land Cover Change Dynamics and their Impacts on Thermal Environment of Dadri Block, Gautam Budh Nagar, India

Land use / land cover (LULC) has been considered as one of the important bio-physical parameters and have significant affect on local environmental change, particularly increasing anthropogenic temperature. Remote sensing images from Landsat series satellites are a major information source for LULC change analysis. In the present investigation, long term changes in LULC and its negative impact on land surface temperature (LST) were analyzed using multi-temporal Landsat satellite images between 2000 to 2016. firstly LULC of the study area has been classified and temporal changes in land use classes were quantify, and observed that in most of the land use classes such as vegetation (-1.28 %), water bodies (-1.65 %), agriculture (-3.52) and open land (-2.43 %) have shown negative change, however large scale positive changes in built-up area (+8.87 %) has been observed during the analysis, which is mainly due to continuous urbanization and growth of population in the area. The classified thermal images from the same period also show mean temperature of the area has increased by 1.60 °C since last 16 years. The observation from the present study reveals that due to the large-scale land use change practices in urban and peri-urban area witnessed for the rising temperature due to loss natural vegetation and other natural resources.

Possible environmental effects on the spread of COVID-19 in China

At the end of 2019, a novel coronavirus, designated as SARS-CoV-2, emerged in Wuhan, China and was identified as the causal pathogen of COVID-19. The epidemic scale of COVID-19 has increased dramatically, with confirmed cases increasing across China and globally. Understanding the potential affecting factors involved in COVID-19 transmission will be of great significance in containing the spread of the epidemic. Environmental and meteorological factors might impact the occurrence of COVID-19, as these have been linked to various diseases, including severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), whose causative pathogens belong to the same virus family as SARS-CoV-2. We collected daily data of COVID-19 confirmed cases, air quality and meteorological variables of 33 locations in China for the outbreak period of 29 January 2020 to 15 February 2020. The association between air quality index (AQI) and confirmed cases was estimated through a Poisson regression model, and the effects of temperature and humidity on the AQI-confirmed cases association were analyzed. The results show that the effect of AQI on confirmed cases associated with an increase in each unit of AQI was statistically significant in several cities. The lag effect of AQI on the confirmed cases was statistically significant on lag day 1 (relative risk (RR) = 1.0009, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.0004, 1.0013), day 2 (RR = 1.0007, 95% CI: 1.0003, 1.0012) and day 3 (RR = 1.0008, 95% CI: 1.0003, 1.0012). The AQI effect on the confirmed cases might be stronger in the temperature range of 10 °C ≤ T < 20 °C than in other temperature ranges, while the RR of COVID-19 transmission associated with AQI was higher in the relative humidity (RH) range of 10% ≤ RH < 20%. Results may suggest an enhanced impact of AQI on the COVID-19 spread under low RH.

The Interactive Effects between Particulate Matter and Heat Waves on Circulatory Mortality in Fuzhou, China

The interactive effects between particulate matter (PM) and heat waves on circulatory mortality are under-researched in the context of global climate change. We aimed to investigate the interaction between heat waves and PM on circulatory mortality in Fuzhou, a city characterized by a humid subtropical climate and low level of air pollution in China. We collected data on deaths, pollutants, and meteorology in Fuzhou between January 2016 and December 2019. Generalized additive models were used to examine the effect of PM on circulatory mortality during the heat waves, and to explore the interaction between different PM levels and heat waves on the circulatory mortality. During heat waves, circulatory mortality was estimated to increase by 8.21% (95% confidence intervals (CI): 0.32–16.72) and 3.84% (95% CI: 0.28–7.54) per 10 μg/m³ increase of PM_2.5 and PM₁₀, respectively, compared to non-heat waves. Compared with low-level PM_2.5 concentration on non-heat waves layer, the high level of PM_2.5 concentration on heat waves layer has a significant effect on the cardiovascular mortality, and the effect value was 48.35% (95% CI: 6.37–106.89). Overall, we found some evidence to suggest that heat waves can significantly enhance the impact of PM on circulatory mortality.

Interactive Effect of Diurnal Temperature Range and Temperature on Mortality, Northeast Asia

BACKGROUND

The diurnal temperature range (DTR) represents temperature variability within a day and has been reported as a potential risk factor for mortality. Previous studies attempted to identify the role of temperature in the DTR-mortality association, but results are inconclusive. The aim of this study was to investigate the interactive effect of temperature and DTR on mortality using a multicountry time series analysis.

METHODS

We collected time series data for mortality and weather variables for 57 communities of three countries (Taiwan, Korea, and Japan) in Northeast Asia (1972-2012). Two-stage time series regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model and meta-analysis was used to estimate the DTR-mortality association changing over temperature strata (six strata were defined based on community-specific temperature percentiles). We first investigated the whole population and then, the subpopulations defined by temperature distribution (cold and warm regions), sex, and age group (people <65 and ≥65 years of age), separately.

RESULTS

The DTR-mortality association changed over temperature strata. The relative risk (RR) of mortality for 10°C increase in DTR was larger for high-temperature strata compared with cold-temperature strata (e.g., = 1.050; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.040, 1.060 at extreme-hot stratum and RR = 1.040; 95% CI = 1.031, 1.050 at extreme-cold stratum); extreme-hot and -cold strata were defined as the days with daily mean temperature above 90th and below 10th percentiles each community's temperature distribution. Such increasing pattern was more pronounced in cold region and in people who were 65 years or older.

CONCLUSIONS

We found evidence that the DTR-related mortality may increase as temperature increases.

Source-related components of fine particulate matter and risk of adverse birth outcomes in Northern Italy

BACKGROUND/AIM

The aim of the present study was to assess the association between PM_2.5, its sources, and preterm birth (PTB), low birth weight (LBW), and small for gestational age (SGA) in a large open residential cohort (Supersito Project in the Emilia-Romagna Region - Northern Italy).

METHODS

We collected 2012-2014 pregnancy and childbirth data from Birth Assistance Certificates and selected the pregnancies of interest. PTBs (gestational age < 37 weeks), LBW (weight < 2500 g), and SGA (newborns weighing ≤ 10th age and pregnancy week-specific percentile) were considered. Three-year measurements of daily concentrations and constituents of PM_2.5 were available at four sites and were analyzed through a source apportionment approach identifying 6 sources (traffic, biomass burning, oil combustion, anthropogenic mix, and two secondary factors). Exposure to PM_2.5 and sources was calculated at address level. Using logistic regression models, associations between exposure and outcomes were derived, applying single-pollutant and two-pollutant models, to verify the independent effect of each source.

RESULTS

The study included 23,708 neonates born to 23,415 women, among whom 1,311 PTB, 424 LBW, and 1,354 SGA occurred. PTB was the only outcome associated with PM_2.5 mass (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.002-1.058 per 1 μg/m³). Traffic, oil combustion and secondary sulfates and organics showed independent effects on PTB. Exposure to secondary nitrates was associated with a lower risk of PTB. There was no association between LBW or SGA and source-specific PM_2.5 components or the residual PM_2.5 related to all other sources.

CONCLUSION

This study found an association between PTB and PM_2.5. Traffic, secondary sulfates, and organic and oil combustion were the sources with most consistent association.

Developing Vulnerability Index to Quantify Urban Heat Islands Effects Coupled with Air Pollution: A Case Study of Camden, NJ

Extreme heat events at urban centers in combination with air pollution pose a serious risk to human health. Among these are financially distressed cities and neighborhoods that are facing enormous challenges without the scientific and technical capacity for planning and mitigation. The city of Camden is one of those economically distressed areas with a predominantly minority population, a high unemployment rate, high poverty rates, and poor air quality (PM2.5 and ozone), and it remains vulnerable to heat events. This paper focuses on studying a coupled effect of Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) and Ozone-PM2.5 pollution at the neighborhood-scale in the city of Camden, using fine scale remotely sensed land-surface temperature and air quality data from the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) Modelling System in the Geographic Information Systems (GIS) platform. To assess the impact of urban microclimate on the city of Camden, NJ, residents’ health, we identified several environmental and social parameters as the root causes of vulnerability imposed by extreme-heat and poor air quality. Vulnerability in terms of environment and social wellbeing was spatially quantified as two conceptual vulnerability-index models (i.e., environmental vulnerability index (EVI) and a social vulnerability index (SVI)) using multiple linear regression algorithm. Factors such as remotely sensed earth surface properties, built-environment components, air quality, and socio-economic data were incorporated in a holistic geographic approach to quantify the combined effect. Surface temperature gradient and Proportional Vegetation (Pv) generated from 30 m resolution Landsat 8 were sampled along with other variables in the city of Camden, NJ. Models incorporating Pv suggest better fit than models with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Water fraction (33.5%, 32.4%), percentage imperviousness (32.5%, 32%), Pv (20.5%, 19.6%), and digital elevation model (DEM) (9%, 8%) have the highest contributions in both models. Two output maps identified the vulnerable neighborhoods in the city through comprehensive GIS analysis: Lanning Square, Bergen Square, Central Waterfront, Gateway, Liberty Park, and Parkside. This can provide useful information for planners and health officials in targeting areas for future interventions and mitigations.

Temperature as a modifier of the effects of air pollution on cardiovascular disease hospital admissions in Cape Town, South Africa

Climate change and air pollution are two independent risk factors to cardiovascular diseases (CVD). Few studies investigated their interaction and potential effect modification of one another in developing countries. Individual level CVD hospital admission (ICD10: I00-I99) data for 1 January 2011 to 31 October 2016 were obtained from seven private hospitals in Cape Town. NO₂, SO₂, PM₁₀, temperature and relative humidity data were obtained from the South African Weather Services and the City of Cape Town. A case-crossover epidemiological study design and conditional logistic regression model were applied. Various cut-off values were applied to classify cold and warm days. In total, 54,818 CVD hospital admissions were included in the study. In general, on warm and cold days the 15-64 years old group was more at risk for CVD hospitalization with increasing air pollution levels compared to all ages combined or the ≥ 65 years old group. Females appeared to be more at risk than males with increasing PM₁₀ levels. In contrast, males were more vulnerable to the effects of NO₂ and SO₂ than females. The study showed the modification effect of temperature on air pollution associated with CVD hospital admissions. The consideration of such interaction will help in policy making and public health interventions dealing with climate change-related health risks.

Health impact assessment by the implementation of Madrid City air-quality plan in 2020

OBJECTIVES

Air pollutant concentrations in many urban areas are still above the legal and recommended limits that are set to protect the citizens' health. Madrid is one of the cities where traffic causes high NO₂ levels. In this context, Madrid City Council launched the Air Quality and Climate Change Plan for the city of Madrid (Plan A), a local strategy approved by the previous government in 2017. The aim of this study was to conduct a quantitative health impact assessment to evaluate the number of premature deaths that could potentially be prevented by the implementation of Plan A in Madrid in 2020, at both citywide and within-city level. The main purpose was to support decision-making processes in order to maximize the positive health impacts from the implementation of Plan A measures.

METHODS

The Regional Statistical Office provided information on population and daily mortality in Madrid. For exposure assessment, we estimated PM_2.5, NO₂ and O₃ concentration levels for Madrid city in 2012 (baseline air-quality scenario) and 2020 (projected air-quality scenario based on the implementation of Plan A), by means of an Eulerian chemical-transport model with a spatial resolution of 1 km × 1 km and 30 vertical levels. We used the concentration-response functions proposed by two relevant WHO projects to calculate the number of attributable annual deaths corresponding to all non-accidental causes (ICD-10: A00-R99) among all-ages and the adult population (>30 years old) for each district and for Madrid city overall. This health impact assessment was conducted dependant on health-data availability.

RESULTS

In 2020, the implementation of Plan A would imply a reduction in the Madrid citywide annual mean PM_2.5 concentration of 0.6 μg/m³ and 4.0 μg/m³ for NO₂. In contrast, an increase of 1 μg/m³ for O₃ would be expected. The annual number of all-cause deaths from long-term exposure (95% CI) that could be postponed in the adult population by the expected air-pollutant concentration reduction was 88 (57-117) for PM_2.5 and 519 (295-750) for NO₂; short-term exposure accounted for 20 (7-32) for PM_2.5 and 79 (47-111) for NO₂ in the total population. According to the spatial distribution of air pollutants, the highest mortality change estimations were for the city centre - including Madrid Central and mainly within the M-30 ring road -, as compared to peripheral districts. The positive health impacts from the reductions in PM_2.5 and NO₂ far exceeded the adverse mortality effects expected from the increase in O₃.

CONCLUSIONS

Effective implementation of Plan A measures in Madrid city would bring about an appreciable decline in traffic-related air-pollutant concentrations and, in turn, would lead to significant health-related benefits.

Air pollution by NO2 is associated with the risk of Bell's palsy: A nested case-controlled study

This study investigated the relationship of weather and air pollution with the onset of Bell’s palsy. The Korean Health Insurance Review and Assessment Service-National Sample Cohort (HIRA-NSC) data from 2002 through 2013 were used. The 3,935 Bell’s palsy patients were matched with 15,740 control participants. The meteorological data, including daily mean temperature (°C), daily mean highest temperature (°C), daily mean lowest temperature (°C), daily mean temperature difference (°C), relative humidity (%), spot atmospheric pressure (hPa), sulfur dioxide (SO₂) (ppm), nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) (ppm), ozone (O₃) (ppm), carbon monoxide (CO) (ppm), and PM₁₀ (particulate matter ≤ 10 μg/m³) for 60 days, 30 days, 14 days, 7 days, and 3 days prior to the index date were analyzed for Bell’s palsy cases and controls. Conditional logistic regression analysis was used to estimate the odds ratios (ORs) of the association between the meteorological data and Bell’s palsy. The mean NO₂ and PM₁₀ concentrations for 60 days were higher, while that of O₃ was lower in the Bell’s palsy group than in the control group (both P < 0.001). The Bell’s palsy group showed 16.63-fold higher odds of NO₂ for 60 days (0.1 ppm) than the control group (95% CI = 10.18–27.16, P < 0.001). The ORs of PM₁₀, and O₃ for 60 days showed inconsistent results according to the included variables. Bell’s palsy was related to high concentrations of NO₂.

Ambient PM2.5 and Annual Lung Cancer Incidence: A Nationwide Study in 295 Chinese Counties

Most studies have examined PM2.5 effects on lung cancer mortalities, while few nationwide studies have been conducted in developing countries to estimate the effects of PM2.5 on lung cancer incidences. To fill this gap, this work aims to examine the effects of PM2.5 exposure on annual incidence rates of lung cancer for males and females in China. We performed a nationwide analysis in 295 counties (districts) from 2006 to 2014. Two regression models were employed to analyse data controlling for time, location and socioeconomic characteristics. We also examined whether the estimates of PM2.5 effects are sensitive to the adjustment of health and behaviour covariates, and the issue of the changing cancer registries each year. We further investigated the modification effects of region, temperature and precipitation. Generally, we found significantly positive associations between PM2.5 and incidence rates of lung cancer for males and females. If concurrent PM2.5 changes by 10 g/m³, then the incidence rate relative to its baseline significantly changes by 4.20% (95% CI: 2.73%, 5.88%) and 2.48% (95% CI: 1.24%, 4.14%) for males and females, respectively. The effects of exposure to PM2.5 were still significant when further controlling for health and behaviour factors or using 5 year consecutive data from 91 counties. We found the evidence of long-term lag effects of PM2.5. We also found that temperature appeared to positively modify the effects of PM2.5 on the incidence rates of lung cancer for males. In conclusion, there were significantly adverse effects of PM2.5 on the incidence rates of lung cancer for both males and females in China. The estimated effect sizes might be considerably lower than those reported in developed countries. There were long-term lag effects of PM2.5 on lung cancer incidence in China.

Ambulance Services Associated with Extreme Temperatures and Fine Particles in a Subtropical Island

This study evaluated the association between the risk of events requiring ambulance services and the ambient temperature and particulate matter of 2.5 μm (PM_2.5) and 10 μm (PM₁₀) for populations living in subtropical Taiwan. We used a distributed lag nonlinear model with a quasi-Poisson function to assess the roles of ambient temperature, PM₁₀ and PM_2.5 in the use of ambulance services for respiratory distress, coma and unconsciousness, chest pain, lying down in public, headaches/dizziness/vertigo/fainting/syncope and out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). The relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of each specific event were calculated in association with the ambient conditions. In general, the events that required ambulance services had a V-shaped or J-shaped association with the temperature, where the risks were higher at extreme temperatures. The RR of each event was significant when the patients were exposed to temperatures in the 5^th percentile (<15 °C); patients with OHCA had the highest adjusted RR of 1.61 (95% CI = 1.47–1.77). The risks were also significant for coma/unconsciousness, headaches/dizziness/vertigo/fainting/syncope, and OHCA but not for respiratory distress, chest pain and lying down in public, after exposure to the 99^th percentile temperatures of >30 °C. The risks for use of ambulance services increased with PM exposure and were significant for events of respiratory distress, chest pain and OHCA after exposure to the 99^th percentile PM_2.5 after controlling for temperatures. Events requiring ambulance services were more likely to occur when the ambient temperature was low than when it was high for the population on the subtropical island of Taiwan. The association of the risk of events requiring ambulance services with PM were not as strong as the association with low temperatures.

The association between high particulate matter pollution and daily cause-specific hospital admissions: a time-series study in Yichang, China

Particulate matter (PM) air pollution is one of the major causes of morbidity and mortality in China. In this study, we estimated the short-term effects of PM on cause-specific hospitalization in Yichang, China. Daily data for PM level, meteorological factors, and hospital admissions (total hospitalization counts = 391,960) in Yichang between 2015 and 2017 were collected. We conducted a time-series study and applied a generalized additive model to evaluate the association between every 10 μg/m³ increment of PM and percent increase of hospitalization. We found positive and statistically significant associations between PM and hospital admissions for multiple outcomes, including all-cause, total respiratory, total cardiovascular diseases, and disease subcategories (hypertensive disease, coronary heart disease, stroke and the stroke subtype, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and lower respiratory infection). Each 10 μg/m³ increase in PM_2.5 at Lag01 (a moving average of Lag0 to Lag1), was significantly associated with an increase of 1.31% (95% CI: 0.79%, 1.83%), 1.12% (95% CI: 0.40%, 1.84%), and 1.14% (95% CI: 0.53%, 1.75%) in hospitalizations for all-cause, CVD, and respiratory, respectively. The association for PM₁₀ with all-cause, CVD, and respiratory admissions was similar but weaker than PM_2.5. The effect on admissions persisted for up to 7 days, and peaked at Lag01. The associations between PM and all-cause hospitalizations were stronger among older individuals and in cold seasons. It is therefore important to continue implementation of emission abatement and other effective measures in Yichang and other cities in China.

Effect of changes in season and temperature on cardiovascular mortality associated with nitrogen dioxide air pollution in Shenzhen, China

BACKGROUND

The intricate association of mortality risk with ambient air pollution and temperature is of growing concern. Little is known regarding effect of changes in season and temperature on daily cardiovascular mortality associated with air pollutant nitrogen dioxide (NO₂).

OBJECTIVES

Our study aimed to assess the effect of NO₂ on cardiovascular mortality modified by season and daily air temperature in the effect, and further to identify the population highly susceptible to cardiovascular mortality associated with NO₂ and air temperature.

METHODS

We collected daily cause-specific death data, weather conditions, and air pollutant concentrations in Shenzhen from 2013 to 2017. Distributed-lag linear models were employed to analyze the effect of season on the NO₂-associated mortality. Furthermore, generalized additive models were combined with stratification parametric analysis to estimate the interaction effect of NO₂ with air temperature on cardiovascular mortality.

RESULTS

In the cold season, the percentage increase in daily mortality for every 10 μg/m³ increment in NO₂ concentration over lags of 0-2 days was 4.45% (95% CI: 2.71-6.21%). However, no statistically significant effect of NO₂ was observed in the warm season. Compared with high-temperature days (>median temperature), a 3.51% increase in mortality (95% CI: 2.04-5.01%) over low-temperature days (≤median temperature) for the same increase in NO₂ was significant. Air temperature modified the effect of NO₂ on daily mortality by 4.08% (95% CI: 2.28-5.91%) for the elderly (age ≥ 65 years) on low-temperature days vs. -0.82% (95% CI: -3.88-2.34%) on high-temperature days, and 3.38% (95% CI: 1.50-5.29%) for males on low-temperature days vs. -0.73% (95% CI: -3.83-2.47%) on high air temperature days.

CONCLUSIONS

The cold season and low temperatures could significantly enhance the effect of NO₂ on cardiovascular mortality. The elderly and males suffering from cardiovascular disease should take precautions against low temperature and NO₂ air pollution.

Impact of weather changes on air quality and related mortality in Spain over a 25 year period [1993-2017]

Climate change is a major public health concern. In addition to its direct impacts on temperature patterns and extreme weather events, climate change affects public health indirectly through its influence on air quality. Pollution trends are not only affected by emissions changes but also by weather changes. In this paper we analyze air quality trends in Spain of important air pollutants (C₆H₆, CO, NO₂, NO_x, O₃, PM₁₀, PM_2.5, and SO₂) recorded during the last 25 years, from 1993 to 2017. We found substantial reductions in ambient concentration levels for all the pollutants studied except for O₃. To assess the influence of recent weather changes on air quality trends we applied generalized additive models (GAMs) using nonparametric smoothing; with and without adjusting for weather parameters including temperature, wind speed, humidity and precipitation frequency. The difference of annual slopes estimated by the models without and with adjusting for these meteorological variables represents the impact of weather changes on pollutant trends, i.e. the 'weather penalty'. The analyses were seasonally and geographically stratified to account for temporal and regional differences across Spain. The results were meta-analyzed to estimate weather penalties on ambient concentration trends at a national level as well as the impact on mortality for the most relevant pollutants. We found significant penalties for most pollutants, implying that air quality would have improved even more during our study period if weather conditions had remained constant. The largest weather influences were found for PM₁₀, with seasonal penalties up to 22 μg⋅m^-3 accumulated over the 25-year period in some regions. The national meta-analysis shows penalties of 0.060 μg⋅m^-3 per year (95% Confidence Interval, CI: 0.004, 0.116) in cold months and 0.127 μg⋅m^-3 per year (95% CI: 0.089, 0.164) in warm months. Penalties of this magnitude would correspond to 129 annual deaths (95% CI: 25, 233), i.e. approximately 3200 deaths over the 25-year period in Spain. According to our results, the health benefits of recent emission abatements for this pollutant in Spain would have been up to 10% greater if weather conditions had remained constant during the last 25 years.