Reassessing Serosurvey-Based Estimates of the Symptomatic Proportion of Zika Virus Infections

Zika virus: advancing a priority research agenda for preparedness and response

The 2015-16 Zika virus epidemic emerged in the Americas and rapidly spread throughout the region and beyond, showing the epidemic potential of this mosquito-borne Orthoflavivirus and its capacity to cause severe congenital malformations and neurological sequelae. WHO declared the Zika virus epidemic a public health emergency of international concern in 2016. Despite this declaration, there are no licensed Zika virus vaccines, therapeutics, or diagnostic tests appropriate for routine antenatal screening. To address this absence of essential tools to detect and mitigate the threat of future Zika virus outbreaks, a group of global experts developed a priority agenda for Zika virus research and development. This Series paper summarises crucial challenges and knowledge gaps and outlines a comprehensive strategy to advance research, surveillance, global capacity, policy, and investment for Zika virus preparedness and response.

Neonatal Microcephaly and Central Nervous System Abnormalities During the Zika Outbreak in Rio de Janeiro

This retrospective cohort study analyzed 7870 pregnant women, including 2269 with confirmed Zika virus (ZIKV) infection and 5601 without Zika infection, along with their fetuses and newborns. Data were sourced from multiple databases in the state of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. A propensity score model was employed to control confounding factors and stratify outcomes by pregnancy trimester. Among ZIKV+ pregnant women, 49 cases of congenital microcephaly or congenital nervous system (CNS) abnormalities were identified (2.16%, or 193.9 cases in 10,000 live births), whereas 44 cases were identified among ZIKV- women (0.78%, or 71.4 cases in 10,000 live births). Multivariable analysis yielded an odds ratio of 2.46 (95% CI 1.30-4.64) overall, with 4.29 (95% CI 1.93-9.53) in the first trimester, 5.29 (95% CI 1.08-25.95) in the second trimester, and 0.68 (95% CI 0.21-2.14) in the third trimester. The most frequent findings among ZIKV+ cases included intracranial calcifications, ventriculomegaly, posterior fossa malformations, reduced brain volume, corpus callosum malformations, cortex dysplasia, lissencephaly, and pachygyria. Ophthalmologic abnormalities were detected in 55.5% of cases, and brainstem auditory evoked potential anomalies were reported in 33.3%. ZIKV infection can result in structural or functional anomalies. Given the absence of specific treatment for congenital Zika syndrome (CZS), clinical care should prioritize monitoring and managing neurological, motor, auditory, visual, and orthopedic disorders in all children with in utero ZIKV exposure, especially during the first and second trimesters of pregnancy.

The effectiveness of putative wearable repellent technologies to protect against mosquito biting and Aedes-borne diseases, and their economic impact

Viruses transmitted by mosquitoes threaten the health of millions of people worldwide. There is an urgent need for new tools for personal protection to ensure that vulnerable individuals are protected from infectious bites when outdoors. Here, we test the efficacy of wash-in and spray-on repellents against Aedes aegypti. When applied as a treatment on clothing as well as skin, the novel repellent compound delta-undecalactone provided up to 100% protection initially, and over 50% bite prevention for more than 7 hours. Mathematical modelling indicated that if such a repellent, with 100% initial efficacy, were to be applied twice daily by 80% of the population, more than 30% of Zika virus infections could be averted in an outbreak scenario with a basic reproduction number R0 = 2.2. In a less severe outbreak (R0 = 1.6), the same repellent regimen could avert 96% of infections. If there was much lower uptake, with only 40% of people using the repellent twice per day, just 4% of Zika cases would be averted (outbreak R0 = 2.2). Similar results were found in other scenarios tested for dengue and chikungunya outbreaks. Our model can be extrapolated to other repellents and guide future product development, and provides support to the concept that effective repellents that are used regularly and appropriately could be cost-effective interventions to prevent ill health from arboviral diseases.

Advances in Zika virus vaccines and therapeutics: A systematic review

Zika virus (ZIKV) is the causative agent of a viral infection that causes neurological complications in newborns and adults worldwide. Its wide transmission route and alarming spread rates are of great concern to the scientific community. Numerous trials have been conducted to develop treatment options for ZIKV infection. This review highlights the latest developments in the fields of vaccinology and pharmaceuticals developments for ZIKV infection. A systematic and comprehensive approach was used to gather relevant and up-to-date data so that inferences could be made about the gaps in therapeutic development. The results indicate that several therapeutic interventions are being tested against ZIKV infection, such as DNA vaccines, subunit vaccines, live-attenuated vaccines, virus-vector-based vaccines, inactivated vaccines, virus-like particles, and mRNA-based vaccines. In addition, approved anti-ZIKV drugs that can reduce the global burden are discussed. Although many vaccine candidates for ZIKV are at different stages of development, none of them have received Food and Drug Authority approval for use up to now. The issue of side effects associated with these drugs in vulnerable newborns and pregnant women is a major obstacle in the therapeutic pathway.

High seroprevalence of antibodies against arboviruses in postpartum women in Salvador, Brazil

Objectives

Arboviruses represent a major challenge to public health in Brazil. Dengue (DENV) virus has been endemic for decades, and the introduction of Zika (2015) and Chikungunya (2014) viruses (CHIKV) has imposed a significant burden on the country. The present study aimed to investigate the seroprevalence of Zika virus (ZIKV), DENV and CHIKV in women in Salvador, Bahia-Brazil.

Methods

Cross-sectional study involving postpartum women admitted to a maternity hospital in Salvador, Brazil. Anti-ZIKV, anti-DENV and anti-CHIKV immunoglobulin G was measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay.

Results

A total of 302 women were enrolled with a median age: 26 years, interquartile range (21-33). Most self-declared as mixed-race or black skin color (92.4%). The seroprevalence was 57% for ZIKV); 91.4% for DENV, and 7.6% for CHIKV. Most participants denied awareness of previous arboviral infection, although 67 (22.3%) reported a previous history of ZIKV infection, 34 (11.1%) DENV infection and 9 (3%) CHIKV infection.

Conclusion

Our data indicate a high prevalence of past ZIKV and DENV infections in the population studied. Most of the participants remain susceptible to future CHIKV infection, highlighting the need for preventive and educational interventions. Our results suggest the need for continuous epidemiological surveillance of arboviral diseases, particularly among women residing in at-risk regions.

Evaluation and monitoring of eye findings in children exposed to Zika virus during gestation: 3 years of follow-up

INTRODUCTION

Congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) is a recently described disease. Our main objective was to evaluate and monitor, over 3 years, the ophthalmoscopic findings in children exposed to zika virus (ZIKV) during gestation.

METHODS

This prospective observational study was conducted in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, between April 2016 and May 2019. We evaluated two groups with exanthema serving as a proxy for viremia: (i) children whose mothers had exanthema during pregnancy and (ii) children who had microcephaly without maternal exanthema during pregnancy. We performed indirect ophthalmoscopy at recruitment and every 6 months thereafter. We also tested the association between ocular findings with maternal exanthema, microcephaly, CZS and maternal infection confirmed by reverse transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction and gender.

RESULTS

Of the 72 children included, 16 (22.2%) had optic nerve and/or retinal lesions. All 16 had CZS and 15 (93.7%) had microcephaly (14 at birth and 1 postnatally). The child with postnatally acquired microcephaly was born to a mother without exanthema during pregnancy. Fifty-six (77.8%) of the 72 children were followed for a median time of 24 months and none exhibited differences between admission and follow-up examinations. After logistic regression, only microcephaly at birth was associated with eye abnormalities (odds ratio, 77.015; 95% confidence interval, 8.85-670.38; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

We observed that there was no progression of the lesions over the follow-up period. We also showed that the eye findings were associated only with microcephaly at birth. Attention should be paid to all children born during a ZIKV epidemic, regardless of maternal exanthema and/or microcephaly at birth.

The Hip of Children with Congenital Zika Syndrome: A Prospective Observational Study

OBJECTIVE

To assess the clinical and radiographic characteristics of hip joint deformities in children with congenital Zika syndrome (CZS), and the evolution of hip joint deformities in affected infants for the first 3 years of life.

STUDY DESIGN

This prospective observational study evaluated orthopedic clinical examinations performed every 3 months to assess hip flexion and extension, lateral and medial rotation, and abduction and adduction, as well as lower limb muscle length and tone. The biannual radiograph comprised anteroposterior panoramic pelvic radiographs with the lower limbs in extension. Percentage of migration was used as a radiographic study tool to measure and evaluate linear hip displacement.

RESULTS

From November 2018 to March 2020, we followed 30 children with CZS, of whom 15 (50%) had normal pelvic radiographs on admission; 5 (33.3%) developed hip displacement by the second radiograph examination. During follow-up radiographic examinations, 20 of the 30 children (66.7%) were diagnosed with hip displacement and/or dislocation of at least 1 side, and 10 of the 30 (33.3%) remained normal. Among 30 affected patients, 13 (43.3%) had hip displacement on the right side and 9 (30%) on the left side. Logistic regression analysis revealed that spasticity (P = .0033; OR, 15.9) and ophthalmologic abnormalities (P = .0163; OR, 16.9) were associated with hip dislocation during follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Pelvic radiographic follow-up for all children with CZS will complement physical examination, diagnosis, and monitoring for hip joint deformities.

Monitoring human arboviral diseases through wastewater surveillance: Challenges, progress and future opportunities

Arboviral diseases are caused by a group of viruses spread by the bite of infected arthropods. Amongst these, dengue, Zika, west nile fever and yellow fever cause the greatest economic and social impact. Arboviral epidemics have increased in frequency, magnitude and geographical extent over the past decades and are expected to continue increasing with climate change and expanding urbanisation. Arboviral prevalence is largely underestimated, as most infections are asymptomatic, nevertheless existing surveillance systems are based on passive reporting of loosely defined clinical syndromes with infrequent laboratory confirmation. Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS), which has been demonstrated to be useful for monitoring diseases with significant asymptomatic populations including COVID19 and polio, could be a useful complement to arboviral surveillance. We review the current state of knowledge and identify key factors that affect the feasibility of monitoring arboviral diseases by WBS to include viral shedding loads by infected persons, the persistence of shed arboviruses and the efficiency of their recovery from sewage. We provide a simple model on the volume of wastewater that needs to be processed for detection of arboviruses, in face of lower arboviral shedding rates. In all, this review serves to reflect on the key challenges that need to be addressed and overcome for successful implementation of arboviral WBS.

Two-year follow-up of children with congenital Zika syndrome: the evolution of clinical patterns

The aim of the study was to describe neurological manifestations in children with congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) in the first 2 years of age. In this prospective observational study, children with CZS treated at a university hospital received a neurological assessment and were evaluated using two neurodevelopmental scales (the Denver II test and the assessment of gross motor development of the World Health Organization) by a pediatric neurologist on admission to the study and at 4, 8, 12, 18, and 24 months of age. The data collected were stored in Microsoft Excel version 14.6.3. Thirty-eight children (27 males and 11 females; a median age of 4.3 months (interquartile range (IQR): 1.6-11.4)) with CZS were evaluated. Irritability was present in 50% and 27% of the children at 8 months and 24 months, respectively. Axial hypertonia was highly prevalent at 4 months (77%), with a decrease to 50% at 24 months. At all ages, spastic tetraparesis was the most common motor abnormality (> 80%). Twenty-seven (71%) participants were diagnosed with epilepsy, and the median age at seizure onset was 6 months (IQR: 3.5-8). The most frequent types of seizures were focal seizures and spasms, with spasms being the most frequent in the first year of life (52%) and focal crises being the most frequent in the second year of life (50%).Conclusion: This study allowed observation of neurological abnormalities over time, the evolution of epileptic manifestations, and recognition of new patterns of clinical neurological abnormalities, helping clinicians to recognize CZS earlier, minimizing the impact of new outbreaks. What is Known: • Clinical patterns of SZC patients at pre-established ages or date of data collection • More frequent studies with data collection of clinical-radiological features of patient's over his first year of life What is New: • Comprehensive clinical neurological progression data regarding CZS in the first 2 years of life, recognizing patterns • Hypothesis including a new CZS spectrum with milder clinical-radiological features.

In Utero Exposure to Zika Virus Results in sex-Specific Memory Deficits and Neurological Alterations in Adult Mice

SUMMARY STATEMENT

In utero exposure to ZIKV leads to decreased number of neurons in adult mice. Female mice exposed to ZIKV in utero exhibit lower levels of BDNF, a decrease in synaptic markers, memory deficits, and risk-taking behavior during adulthood.

Estimating incidence of infection from diverse data sources: Zika virus in Puerto Rico, 2016

Emerging epidemics are challenging to track. Only a subset of cases is recognized and reported, as seen with the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic where large proportions of infection were asymptomatic. However, multiple imperfect indicators of infection provide an opportunity to estimate the underlying incidence of infection. We developed a modeling approach that integrates a generic Time-series Susceptible-Infected-Recovered epidemic model with assumptions about reporting biases in a Bayesian framework and applied it to the 2016 Zika epidemic in Puerto Rico using three indicators: suspected arboviral cases, suspected Zika-associated Guillain-Barré Syndrome cases, and blood bank data. Using this combination of surveillance data, we estimated the peak of the epidemic occurred during the week of August 15, 2016 (the 33^rd week of year), and 120 to 140 (50% credible interval [CrI], 95% CrI: 97 to 170) weekly infections per 10,000 population occurred at the peak. By the end of 2016, we estimated that approximately 890,000 (95% CrI: 660,000 to 1,100,000) individuals were infected in 2016 (26%, 95% CrI: 19% to 33%, of the population infected). Utilizing multiple indicators offers the opportunity for real-time and retrospective situational awareness to support epidemic preparedness and response.

Zika virus (ZIKV) infections, like many infections, are generally underreported due to asymptomatic, mild, or unrecognized cases. Using available surveillance indicators reflecting imperfect proxies of infection, we developed a modeling approach to estimate the weekly incidence of infection by combining independent surveillance indicators and assumptions about system-specific reporting biases in a Bayesian framework. Using our approach, we estimated that approximately 890,000 people in the population were infected with Zika in Puerto Rico in 2016, much higher than the 36,316 reported confirmed infections. Our framework has broad application to other diseases where cases may be underreported through traditional disease surveillance and can provide near real-time changes in incidences.

Interactions between timing and transmissibility explain diverse flavivirus dynamics in Fiji

Zika virus (ZIKV) has caused large, brief outbreaks in isolated populations, however ZIKV can also persist at low levels over multiple years. The reasons for these diverse transmission dynamics remain poorly understood. In Fiji, which has experienced multiple large single-season dengue epidemics, there was evidence of multi-year transmission of ZIKV between 2013 and 2017. To identify factors that could explain these differences in dynamics between closely related mosquito-borne flaviviruses, we jointly fit a transmission dynamic model to surveillance, serological and molecular data. We estimate that the observed dynamics of ZIKV were the result of two key factors: strong seasonal effects, which created an ecologically optimal time of year for outbreaks; and introduction of ZIKV after this optimal time, which allowed ZIKV transmission to persist over multiple seasons. The ability to jointly fit to multiple data sources could help identify a similar range of possible outbreak dynamics in other settings.

Changes in SARS CoV-2 Seroprevalence Over Time in Ten Sites in the United States, March - August, 2020

Background

Monitoring of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) antibody prevalence can complement case reporting to inform more accurate estimates of SARS-CoV-2 infection burden, but few studies have undertaken repeated sampling over time on a broad geographic scale.

Methods

We performed serologic testing on a convenience sample of residual sera obtained from persons of all ages, at ten sites in the United States from March 23 through August 14, 2020, from routine clinical testing at commercial laboratories. We age-sex-standardized our seroprevalence rates using census population projections and adjusted for laboratory assay performance. Confidence intervals were generated with a two-stage bootstrap. We used Bayesian modeling to test whether seroprevalence changes over time were statistically significant.

Results

Seroprevalence remained below 10% at all sites except New York and Florida, where it reached 23.2% and 13.3%, respectively. Statistically significant increases in seroprevalence followed peaks in reported cases in New York, South Florida, Utah, Missouri and Louisiana. In the absence of such peaks, some significant decreases were observed over time in New York, Missouri, Utah, and Western Washington. The estimated cumulative number of infections with detectable antibody response continued to exceed reported cases in all sites.

Conclusions

Estimated seroprevalence was low in most sites, indicating that most people in the U.S. have not been infected with SARS-CoV-2 as of July 2020. The majority of infections are likely not reported. Decreases in seroprevalence may be related to changes in healthcare-seeking behavior, or evidence of waning of detectable anti-SARS CoV-2 antibody levels at the population level. Thus, seroprevalence estimates may underestimate the cumulative incidence of infection.

Evolving viral and serological stages of Zika virus RNA-positive blood donors and estimation of incidence of infection during the 2016 Puerto Rican Zika epidemic: an observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Puerto Rico began screening blood donations for Zika virus RNA with nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) on April 3, 2016, because of an emerging Zika virus outbreak. We followed up positive donors to assess the dynamics of viral and serological markers during the early stages of Zika virus infection and update the estimate of infection incidence in the Puerto Rican population during the outbreak.

METHODS

Blood donations from volunteer donors in Puerto Rico were screened for the presence of Zika virus RNA using the cobas Zika NAAT. Positive donations were further tested to confirm infection, estimate viral load, and identify Zika virus-specific IgM antibodies. Individuals with positive blood donations were invited to attend follow-up visits. Donations with confirmed infection (defined as detection of Zika virus RNA or IgM on additional testing of index or follow-up samples) were assessed for stage of infection according to Zika virus RNA detectability in simulated minipools, viral load, and Zika virus IgM status. A three-step process was used to estimate the mean duration of NAAT reactivity of Zika virus in human plasma from individuals identified pre-seroconversion with at least one follow up visit and to update the 2016 incidence estimate of Zika virus infection.

FINDINGS

Between April 3 and Dec 31, 2016, 53 112 blood donations were screened for Zika virus, of which 351 tested positive, 339 had confirmed infections, and 319 could be staged. Compared with IgM-positive index donations (n=110), IgM-negative index donations (n=209) had higher mean viral loads (1·1 × 10⁶vs 8·3 × 10⁴ international units per mL) and were more likely to be detected in simulated minipools (93% [n=194] vs 26% [n=29]). The proportions of donations with confirmed infections that had viral RNA detected only in individual-donation NAATs (ie, not in simulated minipools) and were IgM positive increased as the epidemic evolved. The estimated mean duration of NAAT detectability in the 140 donors included in the follow-up study was 11·70 days (95% CI 10·06-14·36). Applying this detection period to the observed proportion of donations that were confirmed NAAT positive yielded a Zika virus seasonal incidence estimate of 21·1% (95% CI 18·1-24·1); 768 101 infections in a population of 3 638 773 in 2016.

INTERPRETATION

Characterisation of early Zika virus infection has implications for blood safety because infectivity of blood donations and utility of screening methods likely correlate with viral load and serological stage of infection. Our findings also have implications for diagnostic testing, public health surveillance, and epidemiology, and we estimate that around 21% of the Puerto Rican population was infected during the 2016 outbreak.

FUNDING

Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute.

Leveraging multiple data types to estimate the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas

Several hundred thousand Zika cases have been reported across the Americas since 2015. Incidence of infection was likely much higher, however, due to a high frequency of asymptomatic infection and other challenges that surveillance systems faced. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model with empirically-informed priors, we leveraged multiple types of Zika case data from 15 countries to estimate subnational reporting probabilities and infection attack rates (IARs). Zika IAR estimates ranged from 0.084 (95% CrI: 0.067-0.096) in Peru to 0.361 (95% CrI: 0.214-0.514) in Ecuador, with significant subnational variability in every country. Totaling infection estimates across these and 33 other countries and territories, our results suggest that 132.3 million (95% CrI: 111.3-170.2 million) people in the Americas had been infected by the end of 2018. These estimates represent the most extensive attempt to determine the size of the Zika epidemic in the Americas, offering a baseline for assessing the risk of future Zika epidemics in this region.

Age and geographic dependence of Zika virus infection during the outbreak on Yap island, 2007

Intensive surveillance of Zika virus infection conducted on Yap Island has provided crucial information on the epidemiological characteristics of the virus, but the rate of infection and medical attendance stratified by age and geographical location of the epidemic have yet to be fully clarified. In the present study, we reanalyzed surveillance data reported in a previous study. Likelihood-based Bayesian inference was used to gauge the age and geographically dependent force of infection and age-dependent reporting rate, with unobservable variables imputed by the data augmentation method. The inferred age-dependent component of the force of infection was suggested to be up to 3-4 times higher among older adults than among children. The age-dependent reporting rate ranged from 0.7% (5-9 years old) to 3.3% (50-54 years old). The proportion of serologically confirmed cases among total probable or confirmed cases was estimated to be 44.9%. The cumulative incidence of infection varied by municipality: Median values were over 80% in multiple locations (Gagil, Tomil, and Weloy), but relatively low values (below 50%) were derived in other locations. However, the possibility of a comparably high incidence of infection was not excluded even in municipalities with the lowest estimates. The results suggested a high degree of heterogeneity in the Yap epidemic. The force of infection and reporting rate were higher among older age groups, and this discrepancy implied that the demographic patterns were remarkably different between all infected and medically attended individuals. A higher reporting rate may have reflected more severe clinical presentation among adults. The symptomatic ratio in dengue cases is known to correlate with age, and our findings presumably indicate a similar tendency in Zika virus disease.

Another piece of the Zika puzzle: assessing the associated factors to microcephaly in a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Although it is known that Zika virus (ZIKV) infection during pregnancy may lead to microcephaly in the fetus, the prognostic factors associated with this tragic disorder remain unclear. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to assess the prognostic factors associated with the incidence of microcephaly in congenital ZIKV infection.

METHODS

We conducted a comprehensive search in Ovid MEDLINE, Ovid MEDLINE (R) Epub ahead of print, Embase, Embase Classic, Web of Science, CINAHL, Cochrane CENTRAL, LILACS, and various thesis databases to identify human studies reporting microcephaly associated with congenital ZIKV infection. We requested primary data from the authors of the included studies to calculate summary estimates and conduct the meta-analysis of the most prevalent factors.

RESULTS

We screened 4106 titles and abstracts, and identified 12 studies for inclusion in the systematic review. The assessment of ZIKV infection and the definition of microcephaly varied among studies. A total of 6154 newborns/fetuses were enrolled; of those, 1120 (18.20%) had a diagnostic of ZIKV infection, of which 509 (45.45%) were diagnosed with microcephaly. Nine studies addressed the link between congenital ZIKV infection and neurological findings in newborns/fetuses. Half of the studies provided primary data. Three out of 11 factors of interest seem to be prognostic factors of microcephaly: infant's sex - males compared to females: Relative Risk (RR) 1.30, 95% Confidence Interval (95% CI) 1.14 to 1.49; the stage of pregnancy when infection occurred - infection in the first trimester of pregnancy compared to infection at other stages of pregnancy: RR 1.41, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.82; and asymptomatic infection compared to symptomatic infection during pregnancy: RR 0.68; 95% CI 0.60 to 0.77.

CONCLUSION

Our findings support the female-biased resistance hypothesis and reinforce the risk associated with the stage of pregnancy when ZIKV infection occurs. Continued surveillance of ZIKV infection during pregnancy is needed to identify additional factors that could contribute to developing microcephaly in affected fetuses.

PROTOCOL REGISTRATION

This systematic review was registered with the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (PROSPERO), registration no. CRD 42018088075.

Experience in diagnosing congenital Zika syndrome in Brazilian children born to asymptomatic mothers

INTRODUCTION

Typical symptoms of primary Zika virus infection are not specific and share similarities with other arbovirus infections such as dengue fever and chikungunya. As acute infection can be asymptomatic in up to 73% of cases, infants with microcephaly represent a diagnostic challenge for pediatricians. We describe the frequency of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) in Brazilian children born to asymptomatic pregnant mothers and its differential diagnosis.

METHODS

This longitudinal, observational study was conducted on children with suspected CZS whose mothers did not report rash during pregnancy, referred to the reference hospital in a metropolitan area of ​ Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The diagnosis of suspected CZS was based on Brazilian Ministry of Health protocol.

RESULTS

Forty-three (17%) of 246 referred children were born to mothers without rash history during pregnancy. Thirteen (30%) of 43 children met the Brazilian Ministry of Health criteria for CZS, all with microcephaly (two post-natal). The other children included 11 cases with post-natal microcephaly due to hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (6), non-progressive encephalopathy of unknown etiology (2), microcephaly under investigation (2) and congenital toxoplasmosis (1); 17 children were misdiagnosed with microcephaly and progressed with normal head circumference during the follow-up period; one child was included because of epidemiological link and one was loss to follow-up. All children who underwent laboratory investigation for ZIKV infection during neonatal period had negative RT-qPCR tests.

CONCLUSION

We emphasize the increasing importance of CZS in differential diagnosis of microcephaly at birth or post-natal period. Detailed clinical investigation assisted by neuroimaging tests may clarify the diagnosis of CZS when laboratory tests are not available during the acute phase of the disease.

Comparing vector and human surveillance strategies to detect arbovirus transmission: A simulation study for Zika virus detection in Puerto Rico

Background

Detecting and monitoring the transmission of arboviruses such as Zika virus (ZIKV), dengue virus, and chikungunya virus is critical for prevention and control activities. Previous work has compared the ability of different human-focused surveillance strategies to detect ZIKV transmission in U.S. counties where no known transmission had occurred, but whether virological surveillance in mosquitoes could represent an effective surveillance system is unclear.

Objectives

We leveraged a unique set of data from human and virological surveillance in Ae. aegypti during the 2016 ZIKV epidemic in Caguas, Puerto Rico, to compare alternative strategies for detecting and monitoring ZIKV activity.

Methods

We developed a simulation model for mosquito and human surveillance strategies and simulated different transmission scenarios with varying infection rates and mosquito trap densities. We then calculated the expected weekly number of detected infections, the probability of detecting transmission, and the number of tests needed and compared the simulations with observed data from Caguas.

Results

In simulated high transmission scenarios (1 infection per 1,000 people per week), the models demonstrated that both approaches had estimated probabilities of detection of greater than 78%. In simulated low incidence scenarios, vector surveillance had higher sensitivity than human surveillance and sensitivity increased with more traps, more trapping effort, and testing. In contrast, the actual data from Caguas indicated that human virological surveillance was more sensitive than vector virological surveillance during periods of both high and low transmission.

Conclusion

In scenarios where human surveillance is not possible or when transmission intensity is very low, virological surveillance in Ae. aegypti may be able to detect and monitor ZIKV epidemic activity. However, surveillance for humans seeking care for Zika-like symptoms likely provides an equivalent or more sensitive indicator of transmission intensity in most circumstances.

Control of Zika virus and other mosquito-borne viruses is dependent on timely and accurate detection of viral activity. A previous assessment of surveillance strategies for U.S. counties where no known transmission had occurred, found that testing people seeking medical care with signs of Zika virus was a more effective strategy than testing blood donors or pregnant women. An alternative strategy to testing humans is to test the mosquitoes directly for viruses. In this study, we used data from human and mosquito surveillances during the Zika epidemic of 2016 in Caguas, Puerto Rico to compare these strategies for detecting and monitoring Zika virus activity. Using simulation models for human and mosquito surveillance strategies, we examined different transmission scenarios with varying Zika virus infection rates. The results suggest that in high Zika virus transmission scenarios, both approaches effectively identified transmission. In low transmission scenarios, routine mosquito surveillance had the potential for increased sensitivity compared to human-based surveillance. However, resource availability may also be an important factor when considering the most effective approach.

When could human challenge trials be deployed to combat emerging infectious diseases? Lessons from the case of a Zika virus human challenge trial

Human challenge trials (HCTs) deliberately infect participants in order to test vaccines and treatments in a controlled setting, rather than enrolling individuals with natural exposure to a disease. HCTs are therefore potentially powerful tools to prepare for future outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases. Yet when an infectious disease is emerging, there is often substantial risk and uncertainty about its complications, and few available interventions, making an HCT ethically complex. In light of the need to consider ethical issues proactively as a part of epidemic preparedness, we use the case of a Zika virus HCT to explore whether and when HCTs might be ethically justified to combat emerging infectious diseases. We conclude that emerging infectious diseases could be appropriate candidates for HCTs and we identify relevant considerations and provide a case example to illustrate when they might be ethically acceptable.

Children Born to Mothers with Rash During Zika Virus Epidemic in Brazil: First 18 Months of Life

OBJECTIVE

To better understand the clinical spectrum and course of congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) during the first 18 months of life of children whose mothers had rash during pregnancy.

METHODS

This longitudinal observational study evaluated the clinical progress from birth until 18 months of life of children of mothers who developed rash during or up to 3 months before gestation. Maternal rash occurred from November 2015 to May 2017. The study subjects were divided into three groups: children whose mothers tested positive by RT-qPCR for Zika virus (ZIKV) (Group 1), children whose mothers tested negative by RT-qPCR for ZIKV (Group 2), and children whose mothers did not undergo any testing for ZIKV (Group 3) but tested negative for other congenital infections.

RESULTS

Between April 2016 and July 2018, we studied 108 children: 43 in Group 1, 26 in Group 2 and 39 in Group 3. The majority of children were admitted into the study within 6 months of life. CZS was diagnosed in 26 children, equally distributed in Groups 1 and 3. Of 18 children with microcephaly, 6 were in Group 1 (1 postnatal) and 12 were in Group 3 (5 postnatal). Maternal rash frequency was 10 times higher during the first trimester than in the other trimesters (OR: 10.35; CI 95%: 3.52-30.41). CZS was diagnosed during the follow-up period in 14 (54%) cases. Developmental delays and motor abnormalities occurred in all children and persisted up to 18 months. Epilepsy occurred in 18 (69%) of the cases.

CONCLUSIONS

Infants born of mothers exposed to ZIKV during pregnancy showed progression of developmental, motor and neurologic abnormalities even if they were born asymptomatic. Continued postnatal monitoring of such newborns is necessary to preclude disability-associated complications.

Efficient transplacental IgG transfer in women infected with Zika virus during pregnancy

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a newly-identified infectious cause of congenital disease. Transplacental transfer of maternal IgG to the fetus plays an important role in preventing many neonatal infections. However, antibody transfer may also have negative consequences, such as mediating enhancement of flavivirus infections in early life, or trafficking of virus immune complexes to the fetal compartment. ZIKV infection produces placental pathology which could lead to impaired IgG transfer efficiency as occurs in other maternal infections, such as HIV-1 and malaria. In this study, we asked whether ZIKV infection during pregnancy impairs transplacental transfer of IgG. We enrolled pregnant women with fever or rash in a prospective cohort in Vitoria, Brazil during the recent ZIKV epidemic. ZIKV and dengue virus (DENV)-specific IgG, ZIKV and DENV neutralizing antibodies, and routine vaccine antigen-specific IgG were measured in maternal samples collected around delivery and 20 paired cord blood samples. We concluded that 8 of these mothers were infected with ZIKV during pregnancy and 12 were ZIKV-uninfected. The magnitude of flavivirus-specific IgG, neutralizing antibody, and vaccine-elicited IgG were highly correlated between maternal plasma and infant cord blood in both ZIKV-infected and -uninfected mother-infant pairs. Moreover, there was no difference in the magnitude of plasma flavivirus-specific IgG levels between mothers and infants regardless of ZIKV infection status. Our data suggests that maternal ZIKV infection during pregnancy does not impair the efficiency of placental transfer of flavivirus-specific, functional, and vaccine-elicited IgG. These findings have implications for the neonatal outomes of maternal ZIKV infection and optimal administration of antibody-based ZIKV vaccines and therapeutics.

Travel Surveillance and Genomics Uncover a Hidden Zika Outbreak during the Waning Epidemic

The Zika epidemic in the Americas has challenged surveillance and control. As the epidemic appears to be waning, it is unclear whether transmission is still ongoing, which is exacerbated by discrepancies in reporting. To uncover locations with lingering outbreaks, we investigated travel-associated Zika cases to identify transmission not captured by reporting. We uncovered an unreported outbreak in Cuba during 2017, a year after peak transmission in neighboring islands. By sequencing Zika virus, we show that the establishment of the virus was delayed by a year and that the ensuing outbreak was sparked by long-lived lineages of Zika virus from other Caribbean islands. Our data suggest that, although mosquito control in Cuba may initially have been effective at mitigating Zika virus transmission, such measures need to be maintained to be effective. Our study highlights how Zika virus may still be "silently" spreading and provides a framework for understanding outbreak dynamics. VIDEO ABSTRACT.

Pathophysiology and Mechanisms of Zika Virus Infection in the Nervous System

In 2015, public awareness of Zika virus (ZIKV) rose in response to alarming statistics of infants with microcephaly being born to women who were infected with the virus during pregnancy, triggering global concern over these potentially devastating consequences. Although we have discovered a great deal about the genome and pathogenesis of this reemergent flavivirus since this recent outbreak, we still have much more to learn, including the nature of the virus-host interactions and mechanisms that determine its tropism and pathogenicity in the nervous system, which are in turn shaped by the continual evolution of the virus. Inevitably, we will find out more about the potential long-term effects of ZIKV exposure on the nervous system from ongoing longitudinal studies. Integrating clinical and epidemiological data with a wider range of animal and human cell culture models will be critical to understanding the pathogenetic mechanisms and developing more specific antiviral compounds and vaccines.

Understanding the survival of Zika virus in a vector interconnected sexual contact network

The recent outbreaks of the insect-vectored Zika virus have demonstrated its potential to be sexually transmitted, which complicates modeling and our understanding of disease dynamics. Autochthonous outbreaks in the US mainland may be a consequence of both modes of transmission, which affect the outbreak size, duration, and virus persistence. We propose a novel individual-based interconnected network model that incorporates both insect-vectored and sexual transmission of this pathogen. This model interconnects a homogeneous mosquito vector population with a heterogeneous human host contact network. The model incorporates the seasonal variation of mosquito abundance and characterizes host dynamics based on age group and gender in order to produce realistic projections. We use a sexual contact network which is generated on the basis of real world sexual behavior data. Our findings suggest that for a high relative transmissibility of asymptomatic hosts, Zika virus shows a high probability of sustaining in the human population for up to 3 months without the presence of mosquito vectors. Zika outbreaks are strongly affected by the large proportion of asymptomatic individuals and their relative transmissibility. The outbreak size is also affected by the time of the year when the pathogen is introduced. Although sexual transmission has a relatively low contribution in determining the epidemic size, it plays a role in sustaining the epidemic and creating potential endemic scenarios.