Adding Tree Rings to North America's National Forest Inventories: An Essential Tool to Guide Drawdown of Atmospheric CO2

Evaluating tree-ring proxies for representing the ecosystem productivity in India

Terrestrial ecosystems are one of the major sinks of atmospheric CO2 and play a key role in climate change mitigation. Forest ecosystems offset nearly 25% of the global annual CO2 emissions, and a large part of this is stored in the aboveground woody biomass. Several studies have focused on understanding the carbon sequestration processes in forest ecosystems and their response to climate change using the eddy covariance (EC) technique and remotely sensed vegetation indices. However, very few of them address the linkage of tree-ring growth with the ecosystem-atmosphere carbon exchange, and nearly none have tested this linkage over a long-term (> 100 years) - limited by the short-term (< 50 years) availability of measured ecosystem carbon flux. Nevertheless, tree-ring indices can potentially act as proxies for ecosystem productivity. We utilise the Coupled Climate Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project (C4MIP) model outputs for its 140-year-long simulated records of mean monthly gross primary productivity (GPP) and compare them with the tree-ring growth indices over the northwestern Himalayan region in India. In this study, we examine three coniferous tree species: Pinus roxburghii and Picea smithiana wall. Boiss and Cedrus deodara and find that the strength of the correlation between GPP and tree ring growth indices (RWI) varies among the species.

Contrasting Future Growth of Norway Spruce and Scots Pine Forests Under Warming Climate

Forests are essential to climate change mitigation through carbon sequestration, transpiration, and turnover. However, the quantification of climate change impacts on forest growth is uncertain and even contradictory in some regions, which is the result of spatially constrained studies. Here, we use an unprecedented network of 1.5 million tree growth records from 493 Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris stands across Europe to predict species-specific tree growth variability from 1950 to 2016 (R2 > 0.82) and develop 21st-century gridded projections considering different climate change scenarios. The approach demonstrates overall positive effects of warming temperatures leading to 25% projected conifer growth increases under the SPP370 scenario, but these additional carbon gains are spatially inhomogeneous and associated with geographic climate gradients. Maximum gains are projected for pines in Scandinavia, where growth trajectories indicate 50% increases by 2071-2100. Smaller but significant growth reductions are projected in Mediterranean Europe, where conifer growth shrinks by 25% in response to warmer temperatures. Our results reveal potential mitigating effects via forest carbon sequestration increases in response to global warming and stress the importance of effective forest management.

No Future Growth Enhancement Expected at the Northern Edge for European Beech due to Continued Water Limitation

With ongoing global warming, increasing water deficits promote physiological stress on forest ecosystems with negative impacts on tree growth, vitality, and survival. How individual tree species will react to increased drought stress is therefore a key research question to address for carbon accounting and the development of climate change mitigation strategies. Recent tree-ring studies have shown that trees at higher latitudes will benefit from warmer temperatures, yet this is likely highly species-dependent and less well-known for more temperate tree species. Using a unique pan-European tree-ring network of 26,430 European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees from 2118 sites, we applied a linear mixed-effects modeling framework to (i) explain variation in climate-dependent growth and (ii) project growth for the near future (2021-2050) across the entire distribution of beech. We modeled the spatial pattern of radial growth responses to annually varying climate as a function of mean climate conditions (mean annual temperature, mean annual climatic water balance, and continentality). Over the calibration period (1952-2011), the model yielded high regional explanatory power (R2 = 0.38-0.72). Considering a moderate climate change scenario (CMIP6 SSP2-4.5), beech growth is projected to decrease in the future across most of its distribution range. In particular, projected growth decreases by 12%-18% (interquartile range) in northwestern Central Europe and by 11%-21% in the Mediterranean region. In contrast, climate-driven growth increases are limited to around 13% of the current occurrence, where the historical mean annual temperature was below ~6°C. More specifically, the model predicts a 3%-24% growth increase in the high-elevation clusters of the Alps and Carpathian Arc. Notably, we find little potential for future growth increases (-10 to +2%) at the poleward leading edge in southern Scandinavia. Because in this region beech growth is found to be primarily water-limited, a northward shift in its distributional range will be constrained by water availability.

Drought alters aboveground biomass production efficiency: Insights from two European beech forests

The fraction of photosynthetically assimilated carbon that trees allocate to long-lasting woody biomass pools (biomass production efficiency - BPE), is a key metric of the forest carbon balance. Its apparent simplicity belies the complex interplay between underlying processes of photosynthesis, respiration, litter and fruit production, and tree growth that respond differently to climate variability. Whereas the magnitude of BPE has been routinely quantified in ecological studies, its temporal dynamics and responses to extreme events such as drought remain less well understood. Here, we combine long-term records of aboveground carbon increment (ACI) obtained from tree rings with stand-level gross primary productivity (GPP) from eddy covariance (EC) records to empirically quantify aboveground BPE (= ACI/GPP) and its interannual variability in two European beech forests (Hainich, DE-Hai, Germany; Sorø, DK-Sor, Denmark). We found significant negative correlations between BPE and a daily-resolved drought index at both sites, indicating that woody growth is de-prioritized under water limitation. During identified extreme years, early-season drought reduced same-year BPE by 29 % (Hainich, 2011), 31 % (Sorø, 2006), and 14 % (Sorø, 2013). By contrast, the 2003 late-summer drought resulted in a 17 % reduction of post-drought year BPE at Hainich. Across the entire EC period, the daily-to-seasonal drought response of BPE resembled that of ACI, rather than that of GPP. This indicates that BPE follows sink dynamics more closely than source dynamics, which appear to be decoupled given the distinctive climate response patterns of GPP and ACI. Based on our observations, we caution against estimating the magnitude and variability of the carbon sink in European beech (and likely other temperate forests) based on carbon fluxes alone. We also encourage comparable studies at other long-term EC measurement sites from different ecosystems to further constrain the BPE response to rare climatic events.

Global pattern of forest disturbances and its shift under climate change

Forests are continuously altered by disturbances. Yet, knowledge of global pattern of forest disturbance agents, its drivers, and shifts under changing climate remain scarce. Here we present a meta-analysis of current and projected (+2° and + 4 °C) distribution of forest disturbance agents causing immediate tree mortality (i.e., fire, pest outbreak, hydro-geomorphic, and wind) at country, continental, biome, and global scales. The model including combination of climatic (precipitation of driest quarter, actual evapotranspiration, and minimum temperature), geographical (distance to coast and topography complexity), and forest characteristics (tree density) performs better than any other model in explaining the distribution of disturbance agents (R2 = 0.74). We provide global maps (0.5° × 0.5°) of current and potential future distribution of forest disturbance agents. Globally, the most frequent disturbance agent was fire (46.09 %), followed by pest outbreak (23.27 %), hydro-geomorphic disturbances (18.97 %), and wind (11.67 %). Our projections indicate spatially contrasting shifts in disturbance agents, with fire and wind risk increase between ~50°S and ~ 40°N under warming climate. In particular, the substantial increase in fire risk, exceeding 31 % in the most affected areas, is projected over Mediterranean, the western and southeast USA, African, Oceanian, and South American forests. On the other hand, pest outbreak and hydro-geomorphic disturbances are projected to increase in more southern (> ~ 50°S) and northern (> ~ 40°N) latitudes. Our findings are critical for understanding ongoing changes and developing mitigation strategies to maintain the ecological integrity and ecosystem services under shifts in forest disturbances. We suggest that projected shifts in the global distribution of forest disturbance agents needs to be considered to future models of vegetation or carbon sink dynamics under projected climate change.

Forest inventory tree core archive reveals changes in boreal wood traits over seven decades

Boreal forests play an important role in the global carbon (C) cycle, and there is great interest in understanding how they respond to environmental change, including nitrogen (N) and water limitation, which could impact future forest growth and C storage. Utilizing tree cores archived by the Swedish National Forest Inventory, we measured stemwood traits, including stable N and C isotope composition which provides valuable information related to N availability and water stress, respectively, as well as N and C content, and C/N ratio over 1950-2017 in two central Swedish counties covering an area of ca. 55,000 sq. km (n = 1038). We tested the hypothesis that wood traits are changing over time, and that temporal patterns would differ depending on alternative dendrochronological reconstruction methods, i.e. the commonly applied "single tree method" (STM) or a conceptually stronger "multiple tree method" (MTM). Averaged across all MTMs, our data showed that all five wood traits for Picea abies and Pinus sylvestris changed over time. Wood δ15N strongly declined, indicating progressive nitrogen limitation. The decline in δ13C tracked the known atmospheric δ13CO2 signal, suggesting no change in water stress occurred. Additionally, wood N significantly increased, while C and C/N ratios declined over time. Furthermore, wood trait patterns sometimes differed between dendrochronological methods. The most notable difference was for δ15N, where the slope was much shallower for the STM compared to MTMs for both species, indicating that mobility of contemporary N is problematic when using the STM, resulting in substantially less sensitivity to detect historical signals. Our study indicates strong temporal changes in boreal wood traits and also indicates that the field of dendroecology should adopt new methods and archiving practices for studying highly mobile element cycles, such as nitrogen, which are critical for understanding environmental change in high latitude ecosystems.

Increasing atmospheric dryness reduces boreal forest tree growth

Rising atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) associated with climate change affects boreal forest growth via stomatal closure and soil dryness. However, the relationship between VPD and forest growth depends on the climatic context. Here we assess Canadian boreal forest responses to VPD changes from 1951-2018 using a well-replicated tree-growth increment network with approximately 5,000 species-site combinations. Of the 3,559 successful growth models, we observed a relationship between growth and concurrent summer VPD in one-third of the species-site combinations, and between growth and prior summer VPD in almost half of those combinations. The relationship between previous year VPD and current year growth was almost exclusively negative, while current year VPD also tended to reduce growth. Tree species, age, annual temperature, and soil moisture primarily determined tree VPD responses. Younger trees and species like white spruce and Douglas fir exhibited higher VPD sensitivity, as did areas with high annual temperature and low soil moisture. Since 1951, summer VPD increases in Canada have paralleled tree growth decreases, particularly in spruce species. Accelerating atmospheric dryness in the decades ahead will impair carbon storage and societal-economic services.

Declining tree growth resilience mediates subsequent forest mortality in the US Mountain West

Climate change-triggered forest die-off is an increasing threat to global forests and carbon sequestration but remains extremely challenging to predict. Tree growth resilience metrics have been proposed as measurable proxies of tree susceptibility to mortality. However, it remains unclear whether tree growth resilience can improve predictions of stand-level mortality. Here, we use an extensive tree-ring dataset collected at ~3000 permanent forest inventory plots, spanning 13 dominant species across the US Mountain West, where forests have experienced strong drought and extensive die-off has been observed in the past two decades, to test the hypothesis that tree growth resilience to drought can explain and improve predictions of observed stand-level mortality. We found substantial increases in growth variability and temporal autocorrelation as well declining drought resistance and resilience for a number of species over the second half of the 20th century. Declining resilience and low tree growth were strongly associated with cross- and within-species patterns of mortality. Resilience metrics had similar explicative power compared to climate and stand structure, but the covariance structure among predictors implied that the effect of tree resilience on mortality could partially be explained by stand and climate variables. We conclude that tree growth resilience offers highly valuable insights on tree physiology by integrating the effect of stressors on forest mortality but may have only moderate potential to improve large-scale projections of forest die-off under climate change.

A comprehensive resilience assessment of Mexican tree species and their relationship with drought events over the last century

The resilience of forests to drought events has become a major natural resource sustainability concern, especially in response to climate change. Yet, little is known about the legacy effects of repeated droughts, and tree species ability to respond across environmental gradients. In this study, we used a tree-ring database (121 sites) to evaluate the overall resilience of tree species to drought events in the last century. We investigated how climate and geography affected the response at the species level. We evaluated temporal trends of resilience using a predictive mixed linear modeling approach. We found that pointer years (e.g., tree growth reduction) occurred during 11.3% of the 20th century, with an average decrease in tree growth of 66% compared to the previous period. The occurrence of pointer years was associated with negative values of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI, 81.6%) and Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI, 77.3%). Tree species differed in their resilience capacity, however, species inhabiting xeric conditions were less resistant but with higher recovery rates (e.g., Abies concolor, Pinus lambertiana, and Pinus jeffreyi). On average, tree species needed 2.7 years to recover from drought events, with extreme cases requiring more than a decade to reach pre-drought tree growth rates. The main abiotic factor related to resilience was precipitation, confirming that some tree species are better adapted to resist the effects of droughts. We found a temporal variation for all tree resilience indices (scaled to 100), with a decreasing resistance (-0.56 by decade) and resilience (-0.22 by decade), but with a higher recovery (+1.72 by decade) and relative resilience rate (+0.33 by decade). Our results emphasize the importance of time series of forest resilience, particularly by distinguishing the species-level response in the context of legacy of droughts, which are likely to become more frequent and intense under a changing climate.

New tree-ring data from Canadian boreal and hemi-boreal forests provide insight for improving the climate sensitivity of terrestrial biosphere models

Understanding boreal/hemi-boreal forest growth sensitivity to seasonal variations in temperature and water availability provides important basis for projecting the potential impacts of climate change on the productivity of these ecosystems. Our best available information currently comes from a limited number of field experiments and terrestrial biosphere model (TBM) simulations of varying predictive accuracy. Here, we assessed the sensitivity of annual boreal/hemi-boreal forest growth in Canada to yearly fluctuations in seasonal climate variables using a large tree-ring dataset and compared this to the climate sensitivity of annual net primary productivity (NPP) estimates obtained from fourteen TBMs. We found that boreal/hemi-boreal forest growth sensitivity to fluctuations in seasonal temperature and precipitation variables changed along a southwestern to northeastern gradient, with growth limited almost entirely by temperature in the northeast and west and by water availability in the southwest. We also found a lag in growth climate sensitivity, with growth largely determined by the climate during the summer prior to ring formation. Analyses of NPP sensitivity to the same climate variables produced a similar southwest to northeast gradient in growth climate sensitivity for NPP estimates from all but three TBMs. However, analyses of growth from tree-ring data and analyses of NPP from TBMs produced contrasting evidence concerning the key climate variables limiting growth. While analyses of NPP primarily indicated a positive relationship between growth and seasonal temperature, tree-ring analyses indicated negative growth relationships to temperature. Also, the positive effect of precipitation on NPP derived from most TBMs was weaker than the positive effect of precipitation on tree-ring based growth: temperature had a more important limiting effect on NPP than tree-ring data indicated. These mismatches regarding the key climate variables limiting growth suggested that characterization of tree growth in TBMs might need revision, particularly regarding the effects of stomatal conductance and carbohydrate reserve dynamics.

Long-term soil water limitation and previous tree vigor drive local variability of drought-induced crown dieback in Fagus sylvatica

Ongoing climate warming is increasing evapotranspiration, a process that reduces plant-available water and aggravates the impact of extreme droughts during the growing season. Such an exceptional hot drought occurred in Central Europe in 2018 and caused widespread defoliation in mid-summer in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) forests. Here, we recorded crown damage in 2021 in nine mature even-aged beech-dominated stands in northwestern Switzerland along a crown damage severity gradient (low, medium, high) and analyzed tree-ring widths of 21 mature trees per stand. We aimed at identifying predisposing factors responsible for differences in crown damage across and within stands such as tree growth characteristics (average growth rates and year-to-year variability) and site-level variables (mean canopy height, soil properties). We found that stand-level crown damage severity was strongly related to soil water availability, inferred from tree canopy height and plant available soil water storage capacity (AWC). Trees were shorter in drier stands, had higher year-to-year variability in radial growth, and showed higher growth sensitivity to moisture conditions of previous late summer than trees growing on soils with sufficient AWC, indicating that radial growth in these forests is principally limited by soil water availability. Within-stand variation of post-drought crown damage corresponded to growth rate and tree size (diameter at breast height, DBH), i.e., smaller and slower-growing trees that face more competition, were associated with increased crown damage after the 2018 drought. These findings point to tree vigor before the extreme 2018 drought (long-term relative growth rate) as an important driver of damage severity within and across stands. Our results suggest that European beech is less likely to be able to cope with future climate change-induced extreme droughts on shallow soils with limited water retention capacity.

New tree-level temperature response curves document sensitivity of tree growth to high temperatures across a US-wide climatic gradient

Temperature is a key climate indicator, whose distribution is expected to shift right in a warming world. However, the high-temperature tolerance of trees is less widely understood than their drought tolerance, especially when it comes to sub-lethal impacts of temperature on tree growth. I use a large data set of annual tree ring widths, combined with a flexible degree day model, to estimate the relationship between temperature and tree radial growth. I find that tree radial growth responds non-linearly to temperature across many ecoregions of the United States: across temperate and/or dry ecoregions, spring-summer temperature increases are beneficial or mostly neutral for tree growth up to around 25-30°C in humid climates and 10-15°C in dry climates, beyond which temperature increases suppress growth. Thirty additional degree days above the optimal temperature breakpoint lead to an average decrease in tree ring width of around 1%-5%, depending on ecoregions, seasons, and inclusion or exclusion of temperature-mediated drought impacts. High temperatures have legacy effects across a 5-year horizon in dry ecoregions, but none in the temperate-humid South-East or among temperature-sensitive trees. I find limited evidence that trees acclimatize to high temperatures within their lifetime: local variation in early exposure to high temperatures, which stems from local variation in the timing of tree birth, does not significantly impact the response to high temperatures, although temperature-sensitive trees acquire some heightened sensitivity from early exposure. I also find some evidence that trees adapt to high temperatures in the long run: across humid ecoregions of the United States, high temperatures are 40% less harmful to tree growth, where their average incidence is one standard deviation above average. Overall, these results highlight the strength of a new methodology which, applied to representative tree ring data, could contribute to predicting forest carbon uptake potential and composition under global change.