Uncertainty in Decision Making in Medicine: A Scoping Review and Thematic Analysis of Conceptual Models

The Chinese version of the autonomy preference index for advanced cancer patients: a study on cultural adaptation based on cognitive interview

BACKGROUND

The global cancer burden is becoming increasingly severe. In the context of patient-centred medicine, respecting patients' autonomy and preferences is of paramount importance. However, there is currently a lack of scientific tools in China to measure the autonomous preferences of advanced cancer patients. We aim to optimise assessment tools for patients' autonomous preferences and validate their effectiveness, thereby filling a gap in related research, in hopes of improving the quality of medical care in China.

OBJECTIVES

① To assess the semantic clarity of entries of the Chinese Autonomy Preference Index (API) and determine whether patients can accurately comprehend their content. ② To validate the application effect of cognitive interviews in the translation of the scale into the Chinese culture and context.

METHODS

In March and April 2023, we selected 17 advanced cancer patients by convenience sampling in Zunyi, Guizhou, China, to participate in this study. We assessed their understanding of each item in the Chinese API scale through cognitive interviews and made the corresponding revisions to the scale items based on the interview results.

RESULTS

The respondents' understanding of various API entries after translation and adaptation was assessed. Based on the interview results, ambiguous entries were revised to create a refined Chinese version of the API. Ultimately, the API comprises two dimensions and 23 entries. The results of the first round of interviews revealed doubts or ambiguities in the semantic expression and understanding of 5 items, which were then revised following discussions by the research team. The second round of interviews confirmed that the interviewees could correctly understand the content of the entries without further modifications.

CONCLUSIONS

① Cognitive interviews can address discrepancies in the understanding of scale items among the target population and mitigate measurement errors stemming from item content ambiguity. ② Targeted questionnaire revisions have improved the accuracy, reliability, and applicability of the Chinese version of the API questionnaire. The Chinese version of the Autonomy-Preference-Index offers clinical healthcare professionals an effective measurement tool to assess the autonomous preferences of advanced cancer patients.

Improving clinical decision making by creating surrogate models from health technology assessment models: A case study on Type 1 Diabetes Melitus

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

Computerized clinical decision support systems (CDSS) that incorporate the latest scientific evidence are essential for enhancing patient care quality. Such systems typically rely on some kind of model to accurately represent the knowledge required to assess the clinicians. Although the use of complex and computationally demanding simulation models is common in this field, such models limit the potential applications of CDSSs, both in real-time applications and in simulation-in-the-loop optimization tools. This paper presents a case study on Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus (T1DM) to demonstrate the development of surrogate models from health technology assessment models, with the aim of enhancing the potential of CDSSs.

METHODS

The paper details the process of developing machine learning (ML) based surrogate models, including the generation of a dataset for training and testing, and the comparison of different ML techniques. A number of distinct groupings of comorbidities were utilized in the creation of models, which were trained to predict confidence intervals for the time to develop each complication.

RESULTS

The results of the intersection over union (IoU) analysis between the simulation model output and the surrogate models output for the comorbidities under study were greater than 0.9.

CONCLUSION

The study concludes that ML-based surrogate models are a viable solution for real-time clinical decision-making, offering a substantial speedup in execution time compared to traditional simulation models.

Exploring emergency department providers' uncertainty in neurological clinical reasoning

OBJECTIVES

Diagnostic and management reasoning of neurological disorders may present unique challenges and uncertainty for clinicians, particularly in emergency department settings. This study aims to assess the level of uncertainty emergency department physicians experience when diagnosing neurological versus non-neurological conditions, and whether this uncertainty extends to the management of neurological conditions. Additionally, the study explores whether clinical experience is related to perceived diagnostic and/or management uncertainty.

METHODS

Fifty-three emergency department physicians completed a survey measuring diagnostic uncertainty, management uncertainty, and associated anxiety. The survey included clinical vignettes depicting neurological and non-neurological cases, as well as items which assessed perceived diagnostic and management uncertainty across eight different specialties. Statistical analyses included paired samples t-test for comparing uncertainty between neurology and non-neurology cases and a general linear model to assess relationship between clinical experience and uncertainty.

RESULTS

Emergency department physicians reported greater diagnostic uncertainty for neurological vignettes compared to non-neurological vignettes (Cohen's d=1.37), as well as greater management uncertainty (Cohen's d=1.41). They also reported greater anxiety when diagnosing neurological cases compared to non-neurological cases (Cohen's d=1.33), as well as greater anxiety when managing them (Cohen's d=0.69). Exploratory analyses indicated that with greater experience, management uncertainty of neurology cases decreased, while diagnostic uncertainty remained unchanged.

CONCLUSIONS

The results suggest unique diagnostic and management challenges posed by neurological cases in emergency departments, particularly for less experienced providers. Future research could focus on developing interventions to reduce diagnostic and management uncertainty in neurological conditions.

A Roadmap for Disaster Risk Reduction and Management in Kidney Care: A Scoping Review and Content Analysis

Key Points

Background

Natural, technological, and other disasters cause significant human suffering, and kidney patients are uniquely vulnerable. The safe provision of KRTs necessitates the consistent provision of resources. Robust disaster risk reduction and management (DRRM) can mitigate risks associated with resource disruption. Individual kidney care programs may benefit from an organized approach to developing context-specific protocols. We aimed to synthesize contemporary literature in kidney care to create a roadmap in DRRM.

Methods

We conducted a scoping review followed by a content analysis using the Framework Method. Literature that focused on lessons learned and proposed strategies or recommendations in DRRM was eligible. We contextualized this roadmap within the domains of disaster preparedness, response, and recovery.

Results

Of 3973 titles and abstracts screened, 52 articles were included. We developed the following roadmap: (1) the “ABC4s” of disaster preparedness: assess needs, risks, and vulnerabilities (regional risks and patients at risk); build a task force network; capacity building (tangible resources, intangible resources, monetary considerations, and transportation); communication (network and protocol, patients' medical and dialysis information, contact information of all stakeholders, inclusive approach, and reliable medium); coaching (patients, caregivers, health care personnel, and reinforce and repeat); contingency planning (surge capacity, rationing care, and resource distribution); and strategic partnerships. (2) The DIAL response: damage and scope assessment; initiate action plan (choose the plan, apply preparedness tenets, and implications for receiving facilities); appraise the action plan regularly (reassess, maintain ethical standards, and address psychosocial needs); and liaise, engage, and update. (3) The ARC to recovery: assess damage; return to the (new) norm; and collect data to evaluate, improve, and share.

Conclusions

We propose a roadmap to disaster preparedness, response, and recovery that can guide individual kidney care programs globally to develop context-specific protocols aimed at building capacities and facilitating processes toward DRRM.

Validity and reliability of Brier scoring for assessment of probabilistic diagnostic reasoning

OBJECTIVES

Educators need tools for the assessment of clinical reasoning that reflect the ambiguity of real-world practice and measure learners' ability to determine diagnostic likelihood. In this study, the authors describe the use of the Brier score to assess and provide feedback on the quality of probabilistic diagnostic reasoning.

METHODS

The authors describe a novel format called Diagnostic Forecasting (DxF), in which participants read a brief clinical case and assign a probability to each item on a differential diagnosis, order tests and select a final diagnosis. DxF was piloted in a cohort of senior medical students. DxF evaluated students' answers with Brier scores, which compare probabilistic forecasts with case outcomes. The validity of Brier scores in DxF was assessed by comparison to subsequent decision-making in the game environment of DxF, as well as external criteria including medical knowledge tests and performance on clinical rotations.

RESULTS

Brier scores were statistically significantly correlated with diagnostic accuracy (95 % CI -4.4 to -0.44) and with mean scores on the National Board of Medical Examiners (NBME) shelf exams (95 % CI -474.6 to -225.1). Brier scores did not correlate with clerkship grades or performance on a structured clinical skills exam. Reliability as measured by within-student correlation was low.

CONCLUSIONS

Brier scoring showed evidence for validity as a measurement of medical knowledge and predictor of clinical decision-making. Further work must evaluated the ability of Brier scores to predict clinical and workplace-based outcomes, and develop reliable approaches to measuring probabilistic reasoning.

Survey and perspective on verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification of digital twins for precision medicine

Digital twins in precision medicine provide tailored health recommendations by simulating patient-specific trajectories and interventions. We examine the critical role of Verification, Validation, and Uncertainty Quantification (VVUQ) for digital twins in ensuring safety and efficacy, with examples in cardiology and oncology. We highlight challenges and opportunities for developing personalized trial methodologies, validation metrics, and standardizing VVUQ processes. VVUQ frameworks are essential for integrating digital twins into clinical practice.

Unclear Trajectory and Uncertain Benefit: Creating a Lexicon for Clinical Uncertainty in Patients with Critical or Advanced Illness Using a Delphi Consensus Process

BACKGROUND

Clinical uncertainty is associated with increased resource utilization, worsened health-related quality of life for patients, and provider burnout, particularly during critical illness. Existing data are limited, because determining uncertainty from notes typically requires manual, qualitative review. We sought to develop a consensus list of descriptors of clinical uncertainty and then, using a thematic analysis approach, describe how respondents consider their use in intensive care unit (ICU) notes, such that future work can extract uncertainty data at scale.

DESIGN

We conducted a Delphi consensus study with physicians across multiple institutions nationally who care for critically ill patients or patients with advanced illnesses. Participants were given a definition for clinical uncertainty and collaborated through multiple rounds to determine which words represent uncertainty in clinician notes. We also administered surveys that included open-ended questions to participants about clinical uncertainty. Following derivation of a consensus list, we analyzed participant responses using thematic analysis to understand the role of uncertainty in clinical documentation.

RESULTS

Nineteen physicians participated in at least 2 of the Delphi rounds. Consensus was achieved for 44 words or phrases over 5 rounds of the Delphi process. Clinicians described comfort with using uncertainty terms and used them in a variety of ways: documenting and processing the diagnostic thinking process, enlisting help, identifying incomplete information, and practicing transparency to reflect uncertainty that was present.

CONCLUSIONS

Using a consensus process, we created an uncertainty lexicon that can be used for uncertainty data extraction from the medical record. We demonstrate that physicians, particularly in the ICU, are comfortable with uncertainty and document uncertainty terms frequently to convey the complexity and ambiguity that is pervasive in critical illness.

HIGHLIGHTS

Question: What words do physicians caring for critically ill patients use to document clinical uncertainty, and why?Findings: A consensus list of 44 words or phrases was identified by a group of experts. Physicians expressed comfort with using these words in the electronic health record.Meaning: Physicians are comfortable with uncertainty words and document them frequently to convey the complexity and ambiguity that is pervasive in critical illness.

"With Great Responsibility Comes Great Uncertainty"

BACKGROUND

Uncertainty is inherent in medicine, and trainees are particularly exposed to the adverse effects of uncertainty. Previous work suggested that junior residents seek to leverage the support of supervisors to regulate the uncertainty encountered in clinical placements. However, a broader conceptual framework addressing uncertainty experience, from the sources of uncertainty to residents' responses, is still needed.

OBJECTIVE

To capture the spectrum of uncertainty experiences in medical residents, providing an integrative framework that considers the influence of specialties and training stages on their experience with clinical uncertainty.

DESIGN

We used Hillen's uncertainty tolerance framework to conduct a thematic template analysis of individual and focus group interviews, identifying themes and subthemes reflecting residents' experience of clinical uncertainty.

PARTICIPANTS

Medical residents from diverse medical specialty training programs, across five French medical schools.

APPROACH

Qualitative study driven by an interpretivist research paradigm.

RESULTS

Twenty residents from all years of medical residency and diverse medical specialties were interviewed during three focus groups and five individual interviews. They described managing treatments, making ethical decisions, and communicating uncertainty, as their major sources of uncertainty. We identified residents' delayed response to uncertainty as a key theme, fostering the development of experiential learnings. Prior clinical experience was a key determinant of uncertainty tolerance in medical residents. Entrusting residents with responsibilities in patient management promoted their perception of self-efficacy, although situations of loneliness resulted in stress and anxiety.

CONCLUSION

Residents face significant uncertainty in managing treatments, ethical decisions, and communication due to limited clinical experience and growing responsibilities. Scaffolding their responsibilities and clearly defining their roles can improve their comfort with uncertainty. To that extent, effective supervision and debriefing are crucial for managing emotional impacts and fostering reflection to learn from their uncertain experiences.

"What's Going to Happen?": Internal Medicine Resident Experiences of Uncertainty in the Care of Older Adults

PURPOSE

Internal medicine residents care for clinically complex older adults and may experience increased moral distress due to knowledge gaps, time constraints, and institutional barriers. We conducted a phenomenological study to explore residents' experiences and challenges through the lens of uncertainty.

METHODS

Between January and March 2022, six focus groups were conducted comprising a total of 13 internal medicine residents in postgraduate years 2 and 3, who had completed a required 2-week geriatrics rotation. Applying the Beresford taxonomy of uncertainty as a conceptual model, data were analyzed using the framework method.

RESULTS

All challenging experiences described by residents caring for older adults were linked to uncertainty. Sources of uncertainty were categorized and mapped to the Beresford taxonomy: (1) lack of geriatrics knowledge or clinical guidelines (technical); (2) difficulty applying knowledge to complex older adults (conceptual); and (3) lack of longitudinal relationship with the older patient (personal). Residents identified capacity evaluation and discharge planning as two major geriatric knowledge areas linked with uncertainty. While the majority of residents reacted to uncertainty with some degree of distress, several reported positive coping strategies.

CONCLUSIONS

Internal medicine residents face uncertainty when caring for older adults, particularly related to technical and conceptual factors. Strategies for mitigating uncertainty in the care of older adults are needed given links with moral distress and trainee well-being.

Healthcare providers' psychological investment in clinical recommendations: Investigating the role of implicit racial attitudes

Racial disparities in clinical recommendations can result in racial disparities in health. While healthcare providers' implicit racial attitudes (affective component of bias) are theorized to be one major factor contributing to racial disparities in clinical recommendations, empirical evidence to support the link is lacking. This study aimed to bridge this gap by moving beyond the standard approach of operationalizing the quality of clinical recommendations as a guideline-consistent vs. -inconsistent dichotomy. The present secondary study examined the role of provider implicit racial attitudes in the quality of clinical recommendations, operationalized as behaviors reflecting providers' psychological investment in patient care (i.e., number of words used to describe clinical recommendations, and number of treatment options recommended). Two-hundred-and-ten White medical trainees reviewed a clinical vignette of either a White or Black male patient and provided clinical recommendations. Their implicit racial attitudes were evaluated using the Implicit Association Test. Participants with more biased implicit racial attitudes (i.e., stronger implicit preference for White vs. Black individuals) used fewer words to describe their clinical recommendations and provided fewer clinical recommendations for the Black (vs. White) patient, while there were no significant differences between Black and White patients among participants with less biased implicit racial attitudes. These results illustrate the insidious impact of implicit racial attitudes in healthcare provision and underscore the need for researchers to consider the complex, nuanced ways in which provider implicit racial attitudes might manifest in clinical decision-making.

The Co-Piloting Model for Using Artificial Intelligence Systems in Medicine: Implementing the Constrained-Disorder-Principle-Based Second-Generation System

The development of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML)-based systems in medicine is growing, and these systems are being used for disease diagnosis, drug development, and treatment personalization. Some of these systems are designed to perform activities that demand human cognitive function. However, use of these systems in routine care by patients and caregivers lags behind expectations. This paper reviews several challenges that healthcare systems face and the obstacles of integrating digital systems into routine care. This paper focuses on integrating digital systems with human physicians. It describes second-generation AI systems designed to move closer to biology and reduce complexity, augmenting but not replacing physicians to improve patient outcomes. The constrained disorder principle (CDP) defines complex biological systems by their degree of regulated variability. This paper describes the CDP-based second-generation AI platform, which is the basis for the Digital Pill that is humanizing AI by moving closer to human biology via using the inherent variability of biological systems for improving outcomes. This system augments physicians, assisting them in decision-making to improve patients' responses and adherence but not replacing healthcare providers. It restores the efficacy of chronic drugs and improves adherence while generating data-driven therapeutic regimens. While AI can substitute for many medical activities, it is unlikely to replace human physicians. Human doctors will continue serving patients with capabilities augmented by AI. The described co-piloting model better reflects biological pathways and provides assistance to physicians for better care.

From Calculation to Communication: Using Risk Score Calculators to Inform Clinical Decision Making and Facilitate Patient Engagement

BACKGROUND

Risk score calculators are a widely developed tool to support clinicians in identifying and managing risk for certain diseases. However, little is known about physicians' applied experiences with risk score calculators and the role of risk score estimates in clinical decision making and patient communication.

METHODS

Physicians providing care in outpatient community-based clinical settings (N = 20) were recruited to participate in semi-structured individual interviews to assess their use of risk score calculators in practice. Two study team members conducted an inductive thematic analysis using a consensus-based coding approach.

RESULTS

Participants referenced at least 20 risk score calculators, the most common being the Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Risk Calculator. Ecological factors related to the clinical system (e.g., time), patient (e.g., receptivity), and physician (e.g., experience) influenced conditions and patterns of risk score calculator use. For example, compared with attending physicians, residents tended to use a greater variety of risk score calculators and with higher frequency. Risk score estimates were generally used in clinical decision making to improve or validate clinical judgment and in patient communication to serve as a motivational tool.

CONCLUSIONS

The degree to which risk score estimates influenced physician decision making and whether and how these scores were communicated to patients varied, reflecting a nuanced role of risk score calculator use in clinical practice. The theory of planned behavior can help explain how attitudes, beliefs, and norms shape the use of risk score estimates in clinical decision making and patient communication. Additional research is needed to evaluate best practices in the use of risk score calculators and risk score estimates.

HIGHLIGHTS

The risk score calculators and estimates that participants referenced in this study represented a range of conditions (e.g., heart disease, anxiety), levels of model complexity (e.g., probability calculations, scales of severity), and output formats (e.g., point estimates, risk intervals).Risk score calculators that are easily accessed, have simple inputs, and are trusted by physicians appear more likely to be used.Risk score estimates were generally used in clinical decision making to improve or validate clinical judgment and in patient communication to serve as a motivational tool.Risk score estimates helped participants manage the uncertainty and complexity of various clinical situations, yet consideration of the limitations of these estimates was relatively minimal.Developers of risk score calculators should consider the patient- (e.g., response to risk score estimates) and physician- (e.g., training status) related characteristics that influence risk score calculator use in addition to that of the clinical system.

How Do Paediatricians Manage Comfort with Uncertainty in Clinical Decision-Making

Background

While healthcare practice is inherently characterised by uncertainty, there is a paucity of formal curricular training to support comfort with uncertainty (CWU) in postgraduate training. Indeed, some evidence suggests medical training inherently conflicts with CWU in emphasizing pedagogies focussing on "fixing" the problem. While referral patterns increase significantly, dealing with uncertainty has direct implications for patient referral rates and use of valuable healthcare resources.

Methods

Paediatricians in Ireland were invited to participate. Face-to-face interviews were conducted after participants watched videos of varied clinician-patient interactions.. Two researchers independently analysed the collected data using thematic analysis. Triangulation and member checking was performed to ensure validity of findings. A reflection journal documented the research journey.

Results

Thirty four paediatricians participated. Five themes were identified: the interplay between quality of information, uncertainty and decision-making, confidence in clinical assessment and first-hand patient evaluation, anxiety and fear experienced by medical professionals when dealing with complex and serious conditions, strategies employed by medical professionals in managing their own uncertainty and the impact of societal and parental expectations on medical decision-making. These are moderated by a number of factors, most significantly the child's caregivers' comfort with doctors reassurance (CDR). Enacted management will diverge from the consultant's clinical plan when the caregiver's CDR cannot be satisfactorily supported.

Discussion

Clinician CWU in the paediatric context is inextricably linked to caregiver CDR. The complexities and central importance of social context in understanding CWU has important implications for how we develop educational activities to support clinician CWU and patient/care-giver CDR. This may translate to efficient use of limited resources in healthcare settings.

Residents' Communication With Attendings About Uncertainty: A Single-Site Longitudinal Survey

OBJECTIVE

Managing uncertainty is a core competency of pediatric residents. However, discussing uncertainty with attending physicians can be challenging. Research is needed to understand residents' goals when communicating about uncertainty with attending physicians and how residents' perceptions of communication change during residency. Therefore, we assessed changes in residents' perceptions of their own ability to communicate uncertainty and their perceptions of attending physicians' willingness to discuss uncertainty effectively. We also identify residents' goals and challenges communicating uncertainty.

METHODS

We conducted a 3-year (2018-2021) survey with 2 cohorts of residents at a US children's hospital. Of the 106 eligible residents, 100 enrolled and completed Phase I (94% response rate), 61 of the enrolled residents completed Phase II (61% response rate), and 53 completed Phase III (53% response rate). We employed hierarchical linear modeling to account for clustering of the data (Phases within residents) and to assess changes in communication efficacy and target efficacy over time. We coded open-ended responses to identify residents' communication goals and challenges.

RESULTS

Communication efficacy and target efficacy significantly increased over time. Open-ended responses indicated that residents managed multiple task, identity, and relational goals. Residents described persistent challenges related to wanting to appear competent and working with attending physicians who were unwilling to discuss uncertainty.

CONCLUSIONS

Although residents may grow more confident communicating uncertainty, such conversations are complex and can present challenges throughout residency. Our results support the value of training on communication about uncertainty, not only for residents, but also attending physicians.

Beliefs and experiences of educators when involved in the design of a Learning-by-concordance tool: A qualitative interpretative study

BACKGROUND

Based on the involvement of qualified educators in its design, the Learning-by-Concordance tool aims to promote the learning of reasoning in contexts of uncertainty. However, data are still scarce on the experience of educators in terms of sharing and exposing their reasoning processes using this tool.

PURPOSE

This study sought to explore the beliefs and experiences of educators when involved in the design of a Learning-by-Concordance tool.

METHOD

This research used a descriptive qualitative design. Four dialogue groups were conducted with educators with different roles and responsibilities while designing a Learning-by-Concordance tool. A descriptive interpretative analysis of educators' verbatim quotes was done.

FINDINGS

A total of 14 participants took part in the study. The results show the discomfort of educators despite their recognized expertise. Three themes emerged: 1- the need to be reassured by the opinions of colleagues; 2-feeling like impostors; and 3- concerns for the quality of instructional supports.

CONCLUSIONS

The role taken by educators for teaching reasoning in contexts of uncertainty is to draw on practical experience where different types of knowledge intersect and are mobilized, to overcome feelings of insecurity, and to engage in close and authentic conversation with learners.

Nurses' perception of uncertainty in clinical decision-making: A qualitative study

Background

Uncertainty is a common challenge for nurses in clinical decision-making, which can compromise patient care quality and safety. To address this issue, it is essential to understand how nurses perceive and cope with uncertainty in their practice.

Aim

This study aimed to explore nurses' perceptions of uncertainty in clinical decision-making using a qualitative approach.

Methods

This study was conducted with a qualitative approach and conventional content analysis in 2020. Participants consisted of 17 nurses from different wards of teaching hospitals in Northwestern Iran, recruited using the purposive sampling method. Data were collected through semi-structured interviews and analyzed simultaneously with data collection (June to December 2020). The data were analyzed using the content analysis approach suggested by Wildemuth. Data were managed with MAXQDA10 software. The analysis revealed four main themes and ten subthemes that described the nurses' experiences of uncertainty in clinical decision-making.

Results

The main themes were: difficult choice, difficult situation, insufficient judgment, and emotional burden.

Conclusions

The study participants defined uncertainty in clinical decision-making as a difficult choice that occurs in difficult situations, which influenced their clinical judgment and emotional well-being. These findings provide valuable insights for developing interventions to help nurses manage uncertainty and improve their decision-making skills and safety.

Time to diagnosis for a rare disease: managing medical uncertainty. A qualitative study

BACKGROUND

People with a rare disease commonly experience long delays from the onset of symptoms to diagnosis. Rare diseases are challenging to diagnose because they are clinically heterogeneous, and many present with non-specific symptoms common to many diseases. We aimed to explore the experiences of people with myositis, primary immunodeficiency (PID), and sarcoidosis from symptom onset to diagnosis to identify factors that might impact receipt of a timely diagnosis.

METHODS

This was a qualitative study using semi-structured interviews. Our approach was informed by Interpretive Phenomenological Analysis (IPA). We applied the lens of uncertainty management theory to tease out how patients experience, assess, manage and cope with puzzling and complex health-related issues while seeking a diagnosis in the cases of rare diseases.

RESULTS

We conducted interviews with 26 people with a rare disease. Ten participants had been diagnosed with a form of myositis, 8 with a primary immunodeficiency, and 8 with sarcoidosis. Time to diagnosis ranged from 6 months to 12 years (myositis), immediate to over 20 years (PID), and 6 months to 15 years (sarcoidosis). We identified four themes that described the experiences of participants with a rare disease as they sought a diagnosis for their condition: (1) normalising and/or misattributing symptoms; (2) particularising by clinicians; (3) asserting patients' self-knowledge; and (4) working together through the diagnosable moment.

CONCLUSIONS

Managing medical uncertainty in the time before diagnosis of a rare disease can be complicated by patients discounting their own symptoms and/or clinicians discounting the scale and impact of those symptoms. Persistence on the part of both clinician and patient is necessary to reach a diagnosis of a rare disease. Strategies such as recognising pattern failure and accommodating self-labelling are key to diagnosis.

Uncertainty in tuberculosis clinical decision-making: An umbrella review with systematic methods and thematic analysis

Tuberculosis is a major infectious disease worldwide, but currently available diagnostics have suboptimal accuracy, particularly in patients unable to expectorate, and are often unavailable at the point-of-care in resource-limited settings. Test/treatment decision are, therefore, often made on clinical grounds. We hypothesized that contextual factors beyond disease probability may influence clinical decisions about when to test and when to treat for tuberculosis. This umbrella review aimed to identify such factors, and to develop a framework for uncertainty in tuberculosis clinical decision-making. Systematic reviews were searched in seven databases (MEDLINE, CINAHL Complete, Embase, Scopus, Cochrane, PROSPERO, Epistemonikos) using predetermined search criteria. Findings were classified as barriers and facilitators for testing or treatment decisions, and thematically analysed based on a multi-level model of uncertainty in health care. We included 27 reviews. Study designs and primary aims were heterogeneous, with seven meta-analyses and three qualitative evidence syntheses. Facilitators for decisions to test included providers' advanced professional qualification and confidence in tests results, availability of automated diagnostics with quick turnaround times. Common barriers for requesting a diagnostic test included: poor provider tuberculosis knowledge, fear of acquiring tuberculosis through respiratory sampling, scarcity of healthcare resources, and complexity of specimen collection. Facilitators for empiric treatment included patients' young age, severe sickness, and test inaccessibility. Main barriers to treatment included communication obstacles, providers' high confidence in negative test results (irrespective of negative predictive value). Multiple sources of uncertainty were identified at the patient, provider, diagnostic test, and healthcare system levels. Complex determinants of uncertainty influenced decision-making. This could result in delayed or missed diagnosis and treatment opportunities. It is important to understand the variability associated with patient-provider clinical encounters and healthcare settings, clinicians' attitudes, and experiences, as well as diagnostic test characteristics, to improve clinical practices, and allow an impactful introduction of novel diagnostics.

Factors Influencing COVID-19 Vaccine Hesitancy in Pregnant and Breastfeeding/Puerperium Women: A Cross-Sectional Study

Vaccination among pregnant and breastfeeding women is critical for protecting this vulnerable population and their children. COVID-19 vaccination is recommended both during pregnancy and breastfeeding; however, we still do not fully understand the determinants that influence hesitancy towards COVID-19 vaccination. This study aimed to identify the determinants of vaccine hesitancy in pregnant and breastfeeding, puerperium women. A multicenter, cross-sectional study, involving 435 pregnant and breastfeeding women, was conducted. Vaccination hesitancy was evaluated by administering the Vaccination Attitudes (VAX) Scale and the Zung Anxiety Self-Assessment Scale (SAS) was adopted to measure anxiety levels. Overall, 14% of the participants reported that they did not receive the COVID-19 vaccine, and 78.3% received their first dose during pregnancy or while breastfeeding. The descriptive statistics for the VAX scale showed a total mean score of 3.35 (±1.6), and 75% of participants reported an anxiety index equal to or lower than the threshold. Vaccine hesitancy increased as "adverse events after vaccination" increased (p < 0.01), while SAS levels positively correlated with the participants' mean age (p < 0.05). Investigating the factors influencing vaccine hesitancy enables the development of targeted health policies and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination programs.

Interdisciplinary fetal-neonatal neurology training improves brain health across the lifespan

Integrated fetal, neonatal, and pediatric training constitute an interdisciplinary fetal-neonatal neurology (FNN) program. A dynamic neural exposome concept strengthens curriculum content. Trainees participate in mentoring committee selection for guidance during a proposed two-year program. Prenatal to postnatal clinical learning re-enforces early toxic stressor interplay that influences gene-environment interactions. Maternal-placental-fetal triad, neonatal, or childhood diseases require diagnostic and therapeutic decisions during the first 1,000 days when 80 % of neural connections contribute to life-course phenotypic expression. Pediatric follow-up through 3 years adjusts to gestational ages of preterm survivors. Cumulative reproductive, pregnancy, pediatric and adult exposome effects require educational experiences that emphasize a principle-to-practice approach to a brain capital strategy across the lifespan. More rigorous training during fetal, neonatal, and pediatric rotations will be offered to full time trainees. Adult neurology residents, medical students, and trainees from diverse disciplines will learn essential topics during time-limited rotations. Curriculum content will require periodic re-assessments using educational science standards that maintain competence while promoting creative and collaborative problem-solving. Continued career-long learning by FNN graduates will strengthen shared healthcare decisions by all stakeholders. Recognition of adaptive or maladaptive neuroplasticity mechanisms requires analytic skills that identify phenotypes associated with disease pathways. Developmental origins and life-course concepts emphasize brain health across the developmental-aging continuum, applicable to interdisciplinary research collaborations. Social determinants of health recognize diversity, equity, and inclusion priorities with each neurological intervention, particularly for those challenged with disparities. Diagnostic and therapeutic strategies must address resource challenges particularly throughout the Global South to effectively lower the worldwide burden of neurologic disease. Sustainable development goals proposed by the World Health Organization offer universally applicable guidelines in response to ongoing global and regional polycrises. Gender, race, ethnicity, and socio-economic equality promote effective preventive, rescue and reparative neuroprotective interventions. Global synergistic efforts can be enhanced by establishing leadership within academic teaching hubs in FNN training to assist with structure and guidance for smaller healthcare facilities in each community that will improve practice, education and research objectives. Reduced mortality with an improved quality of life must prioritize maternal-pediatric health and well-being to sustain brain health across each lifespan with transgenerational benefits.

Navigating Uncertainty in Clinical Practice: A Structured Approach

The practice of clinical medicine is imbued with uncertainty. The ways in which clinicians and patients think about, communicate about, and act within situations of heightened uncertainty can have significant implications for the therapeutic alliance and for the trajectory and outcomes of clinical care. Despite this, there is limited guidance about the best methods for physicians to recognize, acknowledge, communicate about, and manage uncertainty in clinical settings. In this paper, we propose a structured approach for discussing and managing uncertainty within the context of a clinician-patient relationship. The approach involves four steps: Recognize, Acknowledge, Partner, and Seek Support (i.e., the RAPS framework). The approach is guided by existing literature on uncertainty as well as our own experience as clinicians working at different stages of career. We define each component of the approach and present sample language and actions for how to implement it in practice. Our aim is to empower clinicians to regard situations of high uncertainty as an opportunity to deepen the therapeutic alliance with the patient, and simultaneously to grow and learn as practitioners.

Maintaining Community During Disruption: Lessons From the Accelerating Change in Medical Education Consortium

ABSTRACT

When the COVID-19 pandemic emerged early in 2020, the American Medical Association's (AMA) Accelerating Change in Medical Education Consortium focused on maintaining its community of 37 medical schools and 11 graduate medical education projects along with the core substance of its work. The initial response was to cancel events and reduce the workload of consortium members, but it quickly became clear that the consortium needed additional strategies. The constituents needed resources, support, and community. The authors, along with the rest of the AMA team, learned to maximize the benefits and minimize the drawbacks of operating virtually. These insights supported the continuation, and even expansion, of the consortium's innovations despite extremely stressful circumstances. In this Scholarly Perspective, the authors outline the actions that they and the AMA team took in 2020 and 2021 at the beginning of the pandemic and as that crisis progressed and was further intensified by the significant distress reflected in the protests after the murder of George Floyd. The goal of these actions was to maintain the consortium's core substance, innovation, momentum, and sense of community. The authors describe lessons learned in 2020 and 2021 via a novel model developed to facilitate ongoing collaboration and respond rapidly to the needs of overwhelmed medical educators. This model is composed of 4 phases: assessing needs, mining experts, convening people, and generating products. This model for leveraging a community of practice can help educators optimize collaboration, whether educators are pursuing innovation in the training of physicians or other health care professionals and whether in times of extreme stress or stability, the model provides a pathway for maintaining community. The prepandemic way of working will not return. Virtual participation and collaboration will remain a part of work and daily life for the foreseeable future and beyond.

A vision for implementing equitable early mental health and resilience support in pediatric primary care: A transdiagnostic, developmental approach

INTRODUCTION

Primary care is at the forefront of addressing the pediatric mental health (MH) crisis due to its broad reach to young children and prevention and health promotion orientation. However, the promise of the delivery system for population impact remains unrealized due to several barriers, including pragmatic screening, decisional uncertainty, and limited access to evidence-based services.

METHOD

This article lays the conceptual foundations for the articles in this Special Section on Mental Health, Earlier in Pediatric Primary Care, which all apply a translational mindset to proposed strategies and solutions to overcome the barriers that have limited the potential of pediatric primary care for improving the MH and wellbeing of all children.

RESULTS

Valid, pragmatic, transdiagnostic, developmentally-based screening measures to identify children at heightened risk are needed. Risk screening for MH problems should assess and empirically weight socioecological risk and protective factors, as well as the child's own assets for resilience to determine probabilistic risk. Pediatric clinicians require clear clinical cutoffs and guidelines for action when risk for MH problems is identified.

DISCUSSION

These strategies-a developmentally-based screener with associated risk calculator that offers clear guidance to pediatric clinicians-address decisional uncertainty regarding when to worry and when to act. The communication of probabilistic risk requires additional client-centered communication skills to overcome different types of biases (e.g., implicit, benevolent, and cognitive) that contribute to MH inequities and decisional uncertainty in acting on identified risk. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2024 APA, all rights reserved).

Complex decision making in an intensive care environment: Perceived practice versus observed reality

RATIONALE

Advancing our understanding of how decisions are made in cognitively, socially and technologically complex hospital environments may reveal opportunities to improve healthcare delivery, medical education and the experience of patients, families and clinicians.

AIMS AND OBJECTIVES

Explore factors impacting clinician decision making in the Boston Children's Hospital Cardiac Intensive Care Unit.

METHODS

A convergent mixed methods design was used. Quantitative and qualitative data sources consisted of a faculty survey, direct observations of clinical rounds in a specific patient population identified by a clinical decision support system (CDSS) and semistructured interviews (SSIs). Deductive and inductive coding was used for qualitative data. Qualitative data were translated into images using social network analysis which illustrate the frequency and connectivity of the codes in each data set.

RESULTS

A total of 25 observations of eight faculty-led interprofessional teams were performed between 12 February and 31 March 2021. Individual patient characteristics were noted by faculty in SSIs to be the most important factor in their decision making, yet ethnographic observations suggested faculty cognitive traits, team expertise and value-based decisions were more heavily weighted. The development of expertise was impacted by role modeling. Decisions were perceived to be influenced by the system and environment.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinician perception of decision making was not congruent with the observed behaviours in a complicated and dynamic system. This study identifies important considerations in clinical curricula as well as the design and implementation of CDSS. Our method of using social network analysis to visualize components of decision making could be adopted to explore other complex environments.

Clinical decisions in fetal-neonatal neurology II: Gene-environment expression over the first 1000 days presenting as "four great neurological syndromes"

Interdisciplinary fetal-neonatal neurology (FNN) training considers a woman's reproductive and pregnancy health histories when assessing the "four great neonatal neurological syndromes". This maternal-child dyad exemplifies the symptomatic neonatal minority, compared with the silent majority of healthy children who experience preclinical diseases with variable expressions over the first 1000 days. Healthy maternal reports with reassuring fetal surveillance testing preceded signs of fetal distress during parturition. An encephalopathic neonate with seizures later exhibited childhood autistic spectrum behaviors and intractable epilepsy correlated with identified genetic biomarkers. A systems biology approach to etiopathogenesis guides the diagnostic process to interpret phenotypic form and function. Evolving gene-environment interactions expressed by changing phenotypes reflect a dynamic neural exposome influenced by reproductive and pregnancy health. This strategy considers critical/sensitive periods of neuroplasticity beyond two years of life to encompass childhood and adolescence. Career-long FNN experiences reenforce earlier training to strengthen the cognitive process and minimize cognitive biases when assessing children or adults. Prioritizing social determinants of healthcare for persons with neurologic disorders will help mitigate the global burden of brain diseases for all women and children.

Training in neonatal neurocritical care: A case-based interdisciplinary approach

Interdisciplinary fetal-neonatal neurology (FNN) training strengthens neonatal neurocritical care (NNCC) clinical decisions. Neonatal neurological phenotypes require immediate followed by sustained neuroprotective care path choices through discharge. Serial assessments during neonatal intensive care unit (NICU) rounds are supplemented by family conferences and didactic interactions. These encounters collectively contribute to optimal interventions yielding more accurate outcome predictions. Maternal-placental-fetal (MPF) triad disease pathways influence postnatal medical complications which potentially reduce effective interventions and negatively impact outcome. The science of uncertainty regarding each neonate's clinical status must consider timing and etiologies that are responsible for fetal and neonatal brain disorders. Shared clinical decisions among all stakeholders' balance "fast" (heuristic) and "slow" (analytic) thinking as more information is assessed regarding etiopathogenetic effects that impair the developmental neuroplasticity process. Two case vignettes stress the importance of FNN perspectives during NNCC that integrates this dual cognitive approach. Clinical care paths evaluations are discussed for an encephalopathic extremely preterm and full-term newborn. Recognition of cognitive errors followed by debiasing strategies can improve clinical decisions during NICU care. Re-evaluations with serial assessments of examination, imaging, placental-cord, and metabolic-genetic information improve clinical decisions that maintain accuracy for interventions and outcome predictions. Discharge planning includes shared decisions among all stakeholders when coordinating primary care, pediatric subspecialty, and early intervention participation. Prioritizing social determinants of healthcare during FNN training strengthens equitable career long NNCC clinical practice, education, and research goals. These perspectives contribute to a life course brain health capital strategy that will benefit all persons across each and successive lifespans.

The science of uncertainty guides fetal-neonatal neurology principles and practice: diagnostic-prognostic opportunities and challenges

Fetal-neonatal neurologists (FNNs) consider diagnostic, therapeutic, and prognostic decisions strengthened by interdisciplinary collaborations. Bio-social perspectives of the woman's health influence evaluations of maternal-placental-fetal (MPF) triad, neonate, and child. A dual cognitive process integrates "fast thinking-slow thinking" to reach shared decisions that minimize bias and maintain trust. Assessing the science of uncertainty with uncertainties in science improves diagnostic choices across the developmental-aging continuum. Three case vignettes highlight challenges that illustrate this approach. The first maternal-fetal dyad involved a woman who had been recommended to terminate her pregnancy based on an incorrect diagnosis of an encephalocele. A meningocele was subsequently identified when she sought a second opinion with normal outcome for her child. The second vignette involved two pregnancies during which fetal cardiac rhabdomyoma was identified, suggesting tuberous sclerosis complex (TSC). One woman sought an out-of-state termination without confirmation using fetal brain MRI or postmortem examination. The second woman requested pregnancy care with postnatal evaluations. Her adult child experiences challenges associated with TSC sequelae. The third vignette involved a prenatal diagnosis of an open neural tube defect with arthrogryposis multiplex congenita. The family requested prenatal surgical closure of the defect at another institution at their personal expense despite receiving a grave prognosis. The subsequent Management of Myelomeningocele Study (MOMS) would not have recommended this procedure. Their adult child requires medical care for global developmental delay, intractable epilepsy, and autism. These three evaluations involved uncertainties requiring shared clinical decisions among all stakeholders. Falsely negative or misleading positive interpretation of results reduced chances for optimal outcomes. FNN diagnostic skills require an understanding of dynamic gene-environment interactions affecting reproductive followed by pregnancy exposomes that influence the MPF triad health with fetal neuroplasticity consequences. Toxic stressor interplay can impair the neural exposome, expressed as anomalous and/or destructive fetal brain lesions. Functional improvements or permanent sequelae may be expressed across the lifespan. Equitable and compassionate healthcare for women and families require shared decisions that preserve pregnancy health, guided by person-specific racial-ethnic, religious, and bio-social perspectives. Applying developmental origins theory to neurologic principles and practice supports a brain health capital strategy for all persons across each generation.

Interdisciplinary fetal-neonatal neurology training applies neural exposome perspectives to neurology principles and practice

An interdisciplinary fetal-neonatal neurology (FNN) program over the first 1,000 days teaches perspectives of the neural exposome that are applicable across the life span. This curriculum strengthens neonatal neurocritical care, pediatric, and adult neurology training objectives. Teaching at maternal-pediatric hospital centers optimally merges reproductive, pregnancy, and pediatric approaches to healthcare. Phenotype-genotype expressions of health or disease pathways represent a dynamic neural exposome over developmental time. The science of uncertainty applied to FNN training re-enforces the importance of shared clinical decisions that minimize bias and reduce cognitive errors. Trainees select mentoring committee participants that will maximize their learning experiences. Standardized questions and oral presentations monitor educational progress. Master or doctoral defense preparation and competitive research funding can be goals for specific individuals. FNN principles applied to practice offer an understanding of gene-environment interactions that recognizes the effects of reproductive health on the maternal-placental-fetal triad, neonate, child, and adult. Pre-conception and prenatal adversities potentially diminish life-course brain health. Endogenous and exogenous toxic stressor interplay (TSI) alters the neural exposome through maladaptive developmental neuroplasticity. Developmental disorders and epilepsy are primarily expressed during the first 1,000 days. Communicable and noncommunicable illnesses continue to interact with the neural exposome to express diverse neurologic disorders across the lifespan, particularly during the critical/sensitive time periods of adolescence and reproductive senescence. Anomalous or destructive fetal neuropathologic lesions change clinical expressions across this developmental-aging continuum. An integrated understanding of reproductive, pregnancy, placental, neonatal, childhood, and adult exposome effects offers a life-course perspective of the neural exposome. Exosome research promises improved disease monitoring and drug delivery starting during pregnancy. Developmental origins of health and disease principles applied to FNN practice anticipate neurologic diagnoses with interventions that can benefit successive generations. Addressing health care disparities in the Global South and high-income country medical deserts require constructive dialogue among stakeholders to achieve medical equity. Population health policies require a brain capital strategy that reduces the global burden of neurologic diseases by applying FNN principles and practice. This integrative neurologic care approach will prolong survival with an improved quality of life for persons across the lifespan confronted with neurological disorders.

The Effect of Uncertainty Training on the Improvement of Diagnostic Ability in Chinese Medical Students

Objective

To evaluate the effect of the uncertainty training on improvement of students' diagnostic ability.

Methods

Data were collected on 70 fifth-year medical students enrolled in the Case Discussion courses on Obstetrics and Gynecology in the spring of 2020. Of these students, 36 were in the uncertainty training group and 34 in the control group. The effect of training was evaluated by cognitively diagnostic assessment which mapped exam questions to 4 attributes assessing clinical reasoning and basic science knowledge.

Results

Uncertainty training was able to improve students' ability to use basic science concepts for inference and problem solving, and the ability to integrate complex clinical information to arrive at a diagnosis. But it could not improve students' ability on the basic recall of foundational concepts and the ability to use basic science concepts in clinical reasoning. Medical students could do well in integrating complex clinical information although they didn't recall basic science knowledge well.

Conclusion

Uncertainty training could be used as an effective teaching method in Case Discussion course on Obstetrics and Gynecology. However, students still need to improve their basic knowledge besides the training.

Pharmacists' perspectives and attitudes towards the 2021 down-scheduling of melatonin in Australia using the Theoretical Domains Framework: a mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

In Australia, prescription melatonin became a 'Pharmacist Only Medicine' for people over 55 with insomnia from June 2021. However, little is known about pharmacists' views on melatonin down-scheduling and perceived impacts on practice.

AIM

To explore Australian community pharmacists' views on and attitudes towards the down-scheduling of melatonin.

METHOD

A convenience sample of community pharmacists and pharmacy interns were recruited. Participants completed a survey capturing demographic and professional practice details, and rated their knowledge, beliefs and attitudes towards melatonin. This was followed by an online semi-structured interview. Interviews were guided by a schedule of questions developed using the Theoretical Domains Framework and explored the perceived role of melatonin, preparation/response to down-scheduling, practice changes and patient interactions. Interviews continued until data saturation and were digitally recorded, transcribed verbatim and analysed using the Framework Approach.

RESULTS

Twenty-four interviews were conducted with community pharmacists (n = 19) and intern pharmacists (n = 5), all practicing in metropolitan areas. Pharmacists/intern pharmacists welcomed the increased accessibility of melatonin for patients. However, pharmacists perceived a disconnect between the guidelines, supply protocols and pack sizes with practice, making it difficult to monitor patient use of melatonin. The miscommunication of eligibility also contributed to patient-pharmacist tension when supply was denied. Importantly, most participants indicated their interest in upskilling their knowledge in melatonin use in sleep, specifically formulation differences and dosage titration.

CONCLUSION

While pharmacists welcomed the down-scheduling of melatonin, several challenges were noted, contributing to pharmacist-patient tensions in practice. Findings highlight the need to refine and unify melatonin supply protocols and amend pack sizes to reflect guideline recommendations as well as better educating the public about the risk-benefits of melatonin.

"You may think that the consultants are great, and they know everything, but they don't": exploring how new emergency medicine consultants experience uncertainty

BACKGROUND

Uncertainty is particularly obvious in emergency medicine (EM) due to the characteristics of the patient cohort, time constraints, and busy environment. Periods of transition are thought to add to uncertainty. Managing uncertainty is recognised as a key ability for medical practice, but is often not addressed explicitly. This study explored how new consultants in EM experience uncertainty, with the aim of making explicit what is often hidden and potentially informing support for doctors to manage the uncertainty they face.

METHODS

This was a qualitative study using interpretive phenomenological analysis (IPA). Five consultants working in the UK within one year of achieving a certificate of completion of training were interviewed online during 2021, these were transcribed and analysed using IPA.

RESULTS

Three superordinate themes were identified: 'transition and performance as a source of uncertainty', 'uncertainty and decision-making in the context of the emergency department' and 'sharing uncertainty and asking for help'. The transition created uncertainty related to their professional identity that was compounded by a lack of useful feedback. There was tension between perceived expectations of certainty and the recognition of uncertainty in practice. EM doctors were seen as experts in managing uncertainty, with responses to uncertainty including gathering information, sharing uncertainty and seeking help. Expressing uncertainty was viewed as necessary for good patient care but could be risky to credibility, with psychological safety and role modelling behaviour making it easier for the participants to express uncertainty.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights the need for new consultants to have psychologically safe, reflective spaces to think through uncertainties with others. This appears to reduce uncertainty, and also act as a source of feedback. The study adds to the existing calls to address uncertainty more explicitly in training, and challenge the expectations of certainty that exist within medicine.

The experiences of uncertainty amongst musculoskeletal physiotherapists in first contact practitioner roles within primary care

AIM

The aim of this research was to explore the experiences of uncertainty amongst Musculoskeletal First Contact Practitioners working in primary care.

BACKGROUND

The Musculoskeletal First Contact Practitioner role involves advanced physiotherapists providing an alternative to the GP by acting as first point of contact for people presenting to primary care with musculoskeletal conditions. Limited research into the role exists but the first-contact aspect, clinical complexity and time pressures are deemed to contribute to uncertainty within the role.

METHOD

A qualitative research design was undertaken using a hermeneutic interpretative phenomenological approach. Data was collected using semi-structured interviews with subsequent thematic analysis of the data.

FINDINGS

Eight participants working as Musculoskeletal First Contact Practitioners across England were recruited using purposive sampling. Five themes were identified: (1) Role clarity within primary care, (2) Burden of responsibility, (3) Preparedness for the primary care environment, (4) 'I'm not really sure how long I am going to stay in this role', (5) Mitigating uncertainty.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates the multifaceted phenomenon of uncertainty amongst Musculoskeletal First Contact Practitioners. Uncertainty appeared to be influenced by the primary care environment, preparedness for the role and perceived burden of responsibility. Diagnostic uncertainty was prevalent with concerns of missing serious pathology evident. The impact of uncertainty on wellbeing was linked to possible burnout and retention issues. Consultation approaches, access to support networks and a cultural shift in tolerating uncertainty were reported to mitigate uncertainty. Further research into possible differences in experiences related to employment models appears warranted.

Developing a Framework and Electronic Tool for Communicating Diagnostic Uncertainty in Primary Care: A Qualitative Study

IMPORTANCE

Communication of information has emerged as a critical component of diagnostic quality. Communication of diagnostic uncertainty represents a key but inadequately examined element of diagnosis.

OBJECTIVE

To identify key elements facilitating understanding and managing diagnostic uncertainty, examine optimal ways to convey uncertainty to patients, and develop and test a novel tool to communicate diagnostic uncertainty in actual clinical encounters.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

A 5-stage qualitative study was performed between July 2018 and April 2020, at an academic primary care clinic in Boston, Massachusetts, with a convenience sample of 24 primary care physicians (PCPs), 40 patients, and 5 informatics and quality/safety experts. First, a literature review and panel discussion with PCPs were conducted and 4 clinical vignettes of typical diagnostic uncertainty scenarios were developed. Second, these scenarios were tested during think-aloud simulated encounters with expert PCPs to iteratively draft a patient leaflet and a clinician guide. Third, the leaflet content was evaluated with 3 patient focus groups. Fourth, additional feedback was obtained from PCPs and informatics experts to iteratively redesign the leaflet content and workflow. Fifth, the refined leaflet was integrated into an electronic health record voice-enabled dictation template that was tested by 2 PCPs during 15 patient encounters for new diagnostic problems. Data were thematically analyzed using qualitative analysis software.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Perceptions and testing of content, feasibility, usability, and satisfaction with a prototype tool for communicating diagnostic uncertainty to patients.

RESULTS

Overall, 69 participants were interviewed. A clinician guide and a diagnostic uncertainty communication tool were developed based on the PCP interviews and patient feedback. The optimal tool requirements included 6 key domains: most likely diagnosis, follow-up plan, test limitations, expected improvement, contact information, and space for patient input. Patient feedback on the leaflet was iteratively incorporated into 4 successive versions, culminating in a successfully piloted prototype tool as an end-of-visit voice recognition dictation template with high levels of patient satisfaction for 15 patients with whom the tool was tested.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this qualitative study, a diagnostic uncertainty communication tool was successfully designed and implemented during clinical encounters. The tool demonstrated good workflow integration and patient satisfaction.

Choosing between the red and the blue pill. How do people decide when they face uncertainty regarding different treatment alternatives?

BACKGROUND

When we are faced with health challenges, we have to choose a treatment from several alternatives. Most of the time, we must make a choice even though some information regarding the options is missing. Previous research found that missing information systematically impacts our choices.

AIM

The present study investigated if context-related variables (type of information: advantages or costs, the label of the alternatives) and individual differences (moral purity, thinking style) have an impact on the way people make these kinds of choices. Methods: One hundred twenty-three students (52% males) had to make 27 decisions regarding their preferred alternative for treating various medical conditions. We manipulated the type of comparable information (i.e., regarding advantages, disadvantages, or costs), and the label of the treatment alternatives (i.e., abstract vs. recognizabletreatments). Additionally, we measured the participants' moral purity endorsement and thinking style via self-report questionnaires.

RESULTS

The results showed that context variables like the type of comparable information and the label of the alternatives are significant predictors of people's medical treatment choices. At the same time, self-reported measures were unrelated to the way people choose medical treatment.

CONCLUSION

The results highlight the importance of discussing the issue of missing information with healthcare consumers and patients.

Teaching the science of uncertainty

As we increasingly acknowledge the ubiquitous nature of uncertainty in clinical practice (Meyer AN, Giardina TD, Khawaja L, Singh H. Patient and clinician experiences of uncertainty in the diagnostic process: current understanding and future directions. Patient Educ Counsel 2021;104:2606-15; Han PK, Klein WM, Arora NK. Varieties of uncertainty in health care: a conceptual taxonomy. Med Decis Making 2011;31:828-38) and strive to better define this entity (Lee C, Hall K, Anakin M, Pinnock R. Towards a new understanding of uncertainty in medical education. J Eval Clin Pract 2020; Bhise V, Rajan SS, Sittig DF, Morgan RO, Chaudhary P, Singh H. Defining and measuring diagnostic uncertainty in medicine: a systematic review. J Gen Intern Med 2018;33:103-15), as educators we should also design, implement, and evaluate curricula addressing clinical uncertainty. Although frequently encountered, uncertainty is often implicitly referred to rather than explicitly discussed (Gärtner J, Berberat PO, Kadmon M, Harendza S. Implicit expression of uncertainty - suggestion of an empirically derived framework. BMC Med Educ 2020;20:83). Increasing explicit discussion of - and comfort with -uncertainty has the potential to improve diagnostic reasoning and accuracy and improve patient care (Dunlop M, Schwartzstein RM. Reducing diagnostic error in the intensive care unit. Engaging. Uncertainty when teaching clinical reasoning. Scholar;1:364-71). Discussion of both diagnostic and prognostic uncertainty with patients is central to shared decision-making in many contexts as well, (Simpkin AL, Armstrong KA. Communicating uncertainty: a narrative review and framework for future research. J Gen Intern Med 2019;34:2586-91) from the outpatient setting to the inpatient setting, and from undergraduate medical education (UME) trainees to graduate medical education (GME) trainees. In this article, we will explore the current status of how the science of uncertainty is taught from the UME curriculum to the GME curriculum, and describe strategies how uncertainty can be explicitly discussed for all levels of trainees.

Clinical decision-making and adaptive expertise in residency: a think-aloud study

Clinical decision-making (CDM) is the ability to make clinical choices based on the knowledge and information available to the physician. It often refers to individual cognitive processes that becomes more dependent with the acquisition of experience and knowledge. Previous research has used dual-process theory to explain the cognitive processes involved in how physicians acquire experiences that help them develop CDM. However, less is known about how CDM is shaped by the physicians' situated cognition in the clinical environment. This is especially challenging for novice physicians, as they need to be adaptive to compensate for the lack of experience. The adaptive expert framework has been used to explain how novice physicians learn, but it has not yet been explored, how adaptive expertise is linked to clinical decision-making amongst novice physicians.This study aimed to analyse how residents utilize and develop adaptive expert cognition in a natural setting. By describing cognitive processes through verbalization of thought processes, we sought to explore their CDM strategies considering the adaptive expert framework.We used concurrent and retrospective think-aloud interviews in a natural setting of an emergency department (ED) at a university hospital, to query residents about their reasoning during a patient encounter. We analysed data using protocol analysis to map cognitive strategies from these verbalizations. Subsequently in a narrative analysis, we compared these strategies with the literature on adaptive expertise.Fourteen interviews were audio recorded over the course for 17 h of observation. We coded 78 informational concepts and 46 cognitive processes. The narrative analysis demonstrated how epistemic distance was prevalent in the initial CDM process and self-regulating processes occurred during hypothesis testing. However, residents who too quickly moved on to hypothesis testing tended to have to redirect their hypothesis more often, and thus be more laborious in their CDM. Uncertainty affected physicians' CDM when they did not reconcile their professional role with being allowed to be uncertain. This allowance is an important feature of orientation to new knowledge as it facilitates the evaluation of what the physician does not know.For the resident to learn to act as an adaptive decision-maker, she relied on contextual support. The professional role was crucial in decisional competency. This supports current literature, which argues that role clarification helps decisional competency. This study adds that promoting professional development by tolerating uncertainty may improve adaptive decisional competency.

Supporting Individuals with Mental Health and/or Addictions Issues Through Patient Navigation: A Scoping Review

Pathways through the mental health care system can be complex and laden with barriers that prevent individuals from finding the most appropriate care. Navigation has been proposed as a solution for improving access to and transition through complex health care systems. While several MHA navigation programs have emerged in the past decade, no study has explored the core themes of MHA navigation, which was the goal of the current review. A scoping review was conducted; the search yielded 11,525 unique results, of which 26 were entered into extraction and subsequent descriptive and thematic analysis. Barrier reduction, client-centered support, and integrated care emerged as the distinct themes underlying MHA services, and overall, navigation significantly improved outcomes for individuals experiencing MHA issues. These findings may support evidence-based implementation of navigation services and point to a need for increased exploration and reporting of MHA navigation outcomes in the literature.

Managing uncertainty in decision-making of common congenital cardiac defects

Decision-making in congenital cardiac care, although sometimes appearing simple, may prove challenging due to lack of data, uncertainty about outcomes, underlying heuristics, and potential biases in how we reach decisions. We report on the decision-making complexities and uncertainty in management of five commonly encountered congenital cardiac problems: indications for and timing of treatment of subaortic stenosis, closure or observation of small ventricular septal defects, management of new-onset aortic regurgitation in ventricular septal defect, management of anomalous aortic origin of a coronary artery in an asymptomatic patient, and indications for operating on a single anomalously draining pulmonary vein. The strategy underpinning each lesion and the indications for and against intervention are outlined. Areas of uncertainty are clearly delineated. Even in the presence of "simple" congenital cardiac lesions, uncertainty exists in decision-making. Awareness and acceptance of uncertainty is first required to facilitate efforts at mitigation. Strategies to circumvent uncertainty in these scenarios include greater availability of evidence-based medicine, larger datasets, standardised clinical assessment and management protocols, and potentially the incorporation of artificial intelligence into the decision-making process.

A non-randomised feasibility study of the Rehabilitation Potential Assessment Tool (RePAT) in frail older people in the acute healthcare setting

BACKGROUND

Rehabilitation potential involves predicting who will benefit from rehabilitation. Decisions about rehabilitation potential must take into account personal, clinical and contextual factors, a process which is complicated in the presence of acute ill-health and frailty. This study aimed to evaluate the feasibility and acceptability of the Rehabilitation Potential Assessment Tool (RePAT) - a 15 item holistic, person-centred assessment tool and training package - in the acute hospital setting.

METHODS

A non-randomised feasibility study with nested semi-structured interviews explored whether RePAT was feasible and acceptable. Feasibility was tested by recruiting physiotherapy and occupational therapy participants delivering the RePAT intervention to patients alongside usual clinical care. Acceptability was tested by conducting semi-structured interviews with staff, patient and carer participants. Staff and patient characteristics were analysed using descriptive statistics. Interview data were analysed thematically. Fidelity of completed RePAT items was assessed against a priori criteria on how closely they matched tool guidance by two researchers. Mean values of the two scores were calculated. RePAT content was analysed and supported with verbatim quotes.

RESULTS

Six staff participants were recruited and trained. They assessed 26 patient participants using RePAT. Mean (SD) patient age was 86.16 (±6.39) years. 32% were vulnerable or mildly frail, 42% moderately frail and 26% severely or very severely frail using the Clinical Frailty Scale. Mean (SD) time to complete RePAT was 32.7 (±9.6) minutes. RePAT fidelity was good where 13 out of 15 items achieved a priori fidelity. RePAT was acceptable and tolerated by staff and patients. Staff participants reported RePAT enabled them to consider rehabilitation decisions in a more structured and consistent way. Patients and carer participants, although unable to comment directly on RePAT, reported being satisfied with their rehabilitation assessments which were found to embrace a person-centred approach.

CONCLUSIONS

RePAT was found to be acceptable and feasible by staff, carers and patients. It allowed clinicians to make explicit their reasoning behind rehabilitation assessments and encouraged them to become more cognisant of factors which affected their clinical decision-making.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ID ISRCTN31938453 . Registered 05/10/2021.

Understanding the value of art prompts in an online narrative medicine workshop: an exploratory-descriptive focus group study

Narrative medicine is an interdisciplinary field that complements and expands on conventional healthcare training by supporting narrative competence skills and creativity derived from the arts and humanities domains to address the needs of healthcare providers and receivers. With the COVID-19 pandemic having had a profound impact on the healthcare workforce with an already high burn-out rate, multimodal arts interventions may help address the holistic dimensions of well-being. While empirical evidence supports the use of arts-based interventions in promoting healthcare workers' well-being and personal growth, art prompts are underexplored and underused in narrative medicine. Moreover, protocols and frameworks adopted in extant research on this topic are inconsistent, resulting in replication and validation challenges. These issues have motivated this exploratory-descriptive study with 11 narrative medicine practitioners to examine the use of short art prompts in an online narrative medicine workshop.The art prompts leveraged art therapy's Expressive Therapies Continuum (ETC) model, which uses the inherent properties of art materials, media and methods to elicit specific levels of information processing and creative experiences. The study aimed to understand how art prompts differ from writing prompts and explore the value art prompts could add to narrative medicine if any. Qualitative analyses revealed that art prompts in narrative medicine increase positive feelings and promote creativity and insight. Specifically, art prompts allowed participants to use sensorimotor functions, enter a flow-like state, be challenged and inspired by novelty and uncertainty, and experience a sense of play and personal discovery.

The impact of clinical uncertainty in the graduate medical education (GME) learning environment: A mixed-methods study

BACKGROUND

Uncertainty is ubiquitous in medicine. Studies link intolerance of uncertainty to burnout, ineffective communication, cognitive bias, and inappropriate resource use. Little is known about how uncertainty manifests in the clinical learning environment. We aimed to explore the perceptions and experiences of uncertainty among residents and attendings.

METHODS

We conducted a mixed-methods study including a survey, semi-structured interviews, and ethnographic observations during rounds with residents and attendings at an academic medical center. The survey included three validated instruments: Physicians' Reaction to Uncertainty Scale; Maslach Burnout Inventory 2-item; and Educational Climate Inventory.

RESULTS

35/60 (58%) of eligible residents and 14/21 (67%) attendings completed the survey. Residents reported higher anxiety due to uncertainty than attendings, higher concern about bad outcomes, and greater reluctance to disclose uncertainty to patients. Residents reported increased symptoms of burnout (p < .05). Perceiving the learning environment as more competitive correlated with reluctance to disclose uncertainty (r = -0.44; p < .01). Qualitative themes included: recognizing and facing uncertainty, and consequences for the learning environment. Observations revealed senior clinicians have greater comfort acknowledging uncertainty.

CONCLUSIONS

Medical curricula should be developed to promote recognition and acknowledgement of uncertainty. Greater acknowledgement of uncertainty, specifically by attendings and senior residents, may positively impact the clinical learning environment.

Risk-benefit analysis of emergency vaccine use

Emergency vaccine use requires weighing a large number of uncertain risks and possible benefits. In the COVID-19 pandemic, decisions about what evidence is necessary to authorize emergency use have proven controversial, and vary between countries. We construct a simple mathematical model of the risks and benefits of emergency vaccination to an individual, and apply this to the hypothetical scenario of individual decision-making between emergency use of a COVID-19 vaccine without safety and efficacy data, versus waiting for efficacy and safety to be established. Even with conservative modelling assumptions and uncertainty distributions for vaccine efficacy (mean expectation = 17%) and serious adverse event risk (mean expectation = 0.3%), high risk individuals (e.g. those who are elderly and have a household contact with COVID-19) are better off using the ’emergency vaccine’ rather than waiting for more information (absolute risk reduction for mortality up to 2%). Very early emergency authorization of vaccines despite very limited data may be the better public health strategy when confronted with a dangerous emerging infectious disease.

Developing an integrated multilevel model of uncertainty in health care: a qualitative systematic review and thematic synthesis

Introduction

Uncertainty is an inevitable part of healthcare and a source of confusion and challenge to decision-making. Several taxonomies of uncertainty have been developed, but mainly focus on decisions in clinical settings. Our goal was to develop a holistic model of uncertainty that can be applied to both clinical as well as public and global health scenarios.

Methods

We searched Medline, Embase, CINAHL, Scopus and Google scholar in March 2021 for literature reviews, qualitative studies and case studies related to classifications or models of uncertainty in healthcare. Empirical articles were assessed for study limitations using the Critical Appraisal Skills Programme (CASP) checklist. We synthesised the literature using a thematic analysis and developed a dynamic multilevel model of uncertainty. We sought patient input to assess relatability of the model and applied it to two case examples.

Results

We screened 4125 studies and included 15 empirical studies, 13 literature reviews and 5 case studies. We identified 77 codes and organised these into 26 descriptive and 11 analytical themes of uncertainty. The themes identified are global, public health, healthcare system, clinical, ethical, relational, personal, knowledge exchange, epistemic, aleatoric and parameter uncertainty. The themes were included in a model, which captures the macro, meso and microlevels and the inter-relatedness of uncertainty. We successfully piloted the model on one public health example and an environmental topic. The main limitations are that the research input into our model predominantly came from North America and Europe, and that we have not yet tested the model in a real-life setting.

Conclusion

We developed a model that can comprehensively capture uncertainty in public and global health scenarios. It builds on models that focus solely on clinical settings by including social and political contexts and emphasising the dynamic interplay between different areas of uncertainty.

The use of cognitive task analysis in clinical and health services research — a systematic review

Background

At times, clinical case complexity and different types of uncertainty present challenges to less experienced clinicians or the naive application of clinical guidelines where this may not be appropriate. Cognitive task analysis (CTA) methods are used to elicit, document and transfer tacit knowledge about how experts make decisions.

Methods

We conducted a methodological review to describe the use of CTA methods in understanding expert clinical decision-making. We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE and PsycINFO from inception to 2019 for primary research studies which described the use of CTA methods to understand how qualified clinicians made clinical decisions in real-world clinical settings.

Results

We included 81 articles (80 unique studies) from 13 countries, published from 1993 to 2019, most commonly from surgical and critical care settings. The most common aims were to understand expert decision-making in particular clinical scenarios, using expert decision-making in the development of training programmes, understanding whether decision support tools were warranted and understanding procedural variability and error identification or reduction. Critical decision method (CDM) and CTA interviews were most frequently used, with hierarchical task analysis, task knowledge structures, think-aloud protocols and other methods less commonly used. Studies used interviews, observation, think-aloud exercises, surveys, focus groups and a range of more CTA-specific methodologies such as the systematic human error reduction and prediction approach. Researchers used CTA methods to investigate routine/typical (n = 64), challenging (n = 13) or more uncommon, rare events and anomalies (n = 3).

Conclusions

In conclusion, the elicitation of expert tacit knowledge using CTA has seen increasing use in clinical specialties working under challenging time pressures, complexity and uncertainty. CTA methods have great potential in the development, refinement, modification or adaptation of complex interventions, clinical protocols and practice guidelines.

Registration

PROSPERO ID CRD42019128418.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40814-022-01002-6.

Managing uncertainty: Physicians’ decision-making for stroke prevention for patients with atrial fibrillation and intracerebral haemorrhage

Background Stroke prevention in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) post-intracerebral haemorrhage (ICH) is an area of clinical equipoise. Little is known about the tools and processes that physicians use to make decisions regarding anticoagulation in this high-risk patient population. Objective To explore physicians’ decision-making process regarding stroke prevention in patients with AF and a recent history of ICH. Method Qualitative study, utilising semi-structured interviews and analysed using Framework analysis. Results Twenty physicians from five European countries (Austria, France, Germany, Spain, United Kingdom) participated. The over-arching theme ‘Managing uncertainty’, addressed the process of making high-risk clinical decisions in the context of little available robust clinical evidence for best practice. Three sub-themes were identified under the umbrella theme: (1) ‘Computing the Risks’, captured the challenge of balancing the risks of ischaemic stroke with the risk of recurrent ICH in a complex patient population; (2) ‘Patient Factors’ highlighted the influence that patients’ beliefs and previous experience of stroke had on physicians’ decisions; and (3) ‘Making a Decision’ explored the process of reaching a final decision regarding initiation of OAC therapy or not. Conclusion Physicians described the process of deciding on stroke prevention in patients with AF post-ICH as ‘challenging’ due to considerable ‘clinical equipoise’. Key factors that affected decision-making was patient comorbidities, functional status, and patient willingness to engage with oral anticoagulation therapy. Shared decision-making was believed to be beneficial, but physicians believed that the ultimate responsibility to decide on stroke prevention lay with the clinician.

What palliative care physicians wish neurologists knew

This chapter describes several features of palliative care that we believe can assist neurologists in caring for patients with serious illness. These features include the importance of recognizing suffering, the central of total pain (including physical, emotional, spiritual, and existential aspects), structural features of palliative care such as the distinction been palliative care and hospice, and the concept of primary and specialty palliative care. Structural features of palliative care such as interdisciplinary teamwork, approaches to self-care, and a perspective on prognostic uncertainty are also considered. Throughout this chapter, the focus is on ways in which neurologists can integrate these approaches in caring for patients and their families.

Embracing uncertainty in mass casualty incidents

Uncertainty is the defining state of the first minutes and hours of a mass casualty event, yet decisions must be taken and actions must happen before the picture is complete. To move forwards in face of uncertainty, we must acknowledge that there will be insufficient information for us to be comfortable in our decisions and actions. We discuss here a range of solutions that allow us to tolerate, even flourish, in the midst of uncertainty.