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Blanvillain G, Lorch JM, Joudrier N, Bury S, Cuenot T, Franzen M, Martínez-Freiría F, Guiller G, Halpern B, Kolanek A, Kurek K, Lourdais O, Michon A, Musilová R, Schweiger S, Szulc B, Ursenbacher S, Zinenko O, Hoyt JR. Contribution of host species and pathogen clade to snake fungal disease hotspots in Europe. Commun Biol 2024; 7:440. [PMID: 38600171 PMCID: PMC11006896 DOI: 10.1038/s42003-024-06092-x] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/10/2023] [Accepted: 03/22/2024] [Indexed: 04/12/2024] Open
Abstract
Infectious diseases are influenced by interactions between host and pathogen, and the number of infected hosts is rarely homogenous across the landscape. Areas with elevated pathogen prevalence can maintain a high force of infection and may indicate areas with disease impacts on host populations. However, isolating the ecological processes that result in increases in infection prevalence and intensity remains a challenge. Here we elucidate the contribution of pathogen clade and host species in disease hotspots caused by Ophidiomyces ophidiicola, the pathogen responsible for snake fungal disease, in 21 species of snakes infected with multiple pathogen strains across 10 countries in Europe. We found isolated areas of disease hotspots in a landscape where infections were otherwise low. O. ophidiicola clade had important effects on transmission, and areas with multiple pathogen clades had higher host infection prevalence. Snake species further influenced infection, with most positive detections coming from species within the Natrix genus. Our results suggest that both host and pathogen identity are essential components contributing to increased pathogen prevalence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gaëlle Blanvillain
- Biological Sciences Department, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA.
| | - Jeffrey M Lorch
- U.S. Geological Survey, National Wildlife Health Center, Madison, WI, USA
| | - Nicolas Joudrier
- Institute of Biology, University of Neuchâtel, Neuchâtel, Switzerland
- Institute of Animal Pathology, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland
- Info fauna-Karch, Centre Suisse de Cartographie de la Faune (CSCF) and Centre de coordination pour la protection des reptiles et des amphibiens de Suisse (karch), Neuchâtel, Switzerland
| | - Stanislaw Bury
- Department of Comparative Anatomy, Institute of Zoology and Biomedical Research, Jagiellonian University, Cracow, Poland
- NATRIX Herpetological Association, Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Thibault Cuenot
- LPO Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, Site de Franche-Comté, Maison de l'environnement de BFC, Besançon, France
| | - Michael Franzen
- Bavarian State Collection of Zoology (ZSM-SNSB), Munich, Germany
| | - Fernando Martínez-Freiría
- CIBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, InBIO Laboratório Associado, Campus de Vairão, University of Porto, Vairão, Portugal
- BIOPOLIS Program in Genomics, Biodiversity and Land Planning, CIBIO, Campus de Vairão, Vairão, Portugal
| | | | - Bálint Halpern
- MME BirdLife Hungary, Budapest, Hungary
- Department of Systematic Zoology and Ecology, Institute of Biology, Eötvös Loránd University, Budapest, Hungary
- HUN-REN-ELTE-MTM, Integrative Ecology Research Group, Budapest, Hungary
| | - Aleksandra Kolanek
- NATRIX Herpetological Association, Wroclaw, Poland
- Department of Geoinformatics and Cartography, Institute of Geography and Regional Development, Faculty of Earth Sciences and Environmental Management, University of Wroclaw, Wroclaw, Poland
| | - Katarzyna Kurek
- Department of Wildlife Conservation, Institute of Nature Conservation Polish Academy of Science, Cracow, Poland
| | - Olivier Lourdais
- Centre d'Etudes Biologiques de Chizé, ULR CNRS UMR 7372, Villiers en Bois, France
- School of Life Sciences, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ, USA
| | - Alix Michon
- LPO Bourgogne-Franche-Comté, Site de Franche-Comté, Maison de l'environnement de BFC, Besançon, France
| | | | - Silke Schweiger
- First Zoological Department, Herpetological Collection, Natural History Museum, Vienna, Austria
| | - Barbara Szulc
- NATRIX Herpetological Association, Wroclaw, Poland
- Department of Genetics, Kazimierz Wielki University, Bydgoszcz, Poland
| | - Sylvain Ursenbacher
- Info fauna-Karch, Centre Suisse de Cartographie de la Faune (CSCF) and Centre de coordination pour la protection des reptiles et des amphibiens de Suisse (karch), Neuchâtel, Switzerland
- Department of Environmental Sciences, Section of Conservation Biology, University of Basel, Basel, Switzerland
- Balaton Limnological Research Institute, Tihany, Hungary
| | | | - Joseph R Hoyt
- Biological Sciences Department, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA, USA
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Prosser DJ, Teitelbaum CS, Yin S, Hill NJ, Xiao X. Climate change impacts on bird migration and highly pathogenic avian influenza. Nat Microbiol 2023; 8:2223-2225. [PMID: 38030910 DOI: 10.1038/s41564-023-01538-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/01/2023]
Affiliation(s)
- Diann J Prosser
- US Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Laurel, MD, USA.
| | - Claire S Teitelbaum
- NASA Ames Research Center and Bay Area Environmental Research Institute, Moffett Field, CA, USA
| | - Shenglai Yin
- US Geological Survey, Eastern Ecological Science Center, Laurel, MD, USA
- Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, Center for Earth Observation and Modeling, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA
| | - Nichola J Hill
- Biology Department, University of Massachusetts, Boston, MA, USA
| | - Xiangming Xiao
- Department of Microbiology and Plant Biology, Center for Earth Observation and Modeling, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK, USA
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3
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Pepin KM, Leach CB, Barrett NL, Ellis JW, VanDalen KK, Webb CT, Shriner SA. Environmental transmission of influenza A virus in mallards. mBio 2023; 14:e0086223. [PMID: 37768062 PMCID: PMC10653830 DOI: 10.1128/mbio.00862-23] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2023] [Accepted: 08/07/2023] [Indexed: 09/29/2023] Open
Abstract
IMPORTANCE Wild birds are the natural reservoir hosts of influenza A viruses. Highly pathogenic strains of influenza A viruses pose risks to wild birds, poultry, and human health. Thus, understanding how these viruses are transmitted between birds is critical. We conducted an experiment where we experimentally infected mallards which are ducks that are commonly exposed to influenza viruses. We exposed several contact ducks to the experimentally infected duck to estimate the probability that a contact duck would become infected from either exposure to the virus shed directly from the infected duck or shared water contaminated with the virus from the infected duck. We found that environmental transmission from contaminated water best predicted the probability of transmission to naïve contact ducks, relatively low levels of virus in the water were sufficient to cause infection, and the probability of a naïve duck becoming infected varied over time.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kim M. Pepin
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, National Wildlife Research Center, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Clinton B. Leach
- Department of Fish Wildlife and Conservation Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Nicole L. Barrett
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, National Wildlife Research Center, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Jeremy W. Ellis
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, National Wildlife Research Center, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Kaci K. VanDalen
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, National Wildlife Research Center, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Colleen T. Webb
- Department of Biology and Graduate Degree Program in Ecology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
| | - Susan A. Shriner
- United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, National Wildlife Research Center, Fort Collins, Colorado, USA
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4
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Ayala AJ, Ogbunugafor CB. When Vibrios Take Flight: A Meta-Analysis of Pathogenic Vibrio Species in Wild and Domestic Birds. ADVANCES IN EXPERIMENTAL MEDICINE AND BIOLOGY 2023; 1404:295-336. [PMID: 36792882 DOI: 10.1007/978-3-031-22997-8_15] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 02/17/2023]
Abstract
Of the over 100 species in the genus Vibrio, approximately twelve are associated with clinical disease, such as cholera and vibriosis. Crucially, eleven of those twelve, including Vibrio cholerae and Vibrio vulnificus, have been isolated from birds. Since 1965, pathogenic Vibrio species have been consistently isolated from aquatic and ground-foraging bird species, which has implications for public health, as well as the One Health paradigm defined as an ecology-inspired, integrative framework for the study of health and disease, inclusive of environmental, human, and animal health. In this meta-analysis, we identified 76 studies from the primary literature which report on or examine birds as hosts for pathogenic Vibrio species. We found that the burden of disease in birds was most commonly associated with V. cholerae, followed by V. metschnikovii and V. parahaemolyticus. Meta-analysis wide prevalence of our Vibrio pathogens varied from 19% for V. parahaemolyticus to 1% for V. mimicus. Wild and domestic birds were both affected, which may have implications for conservation, as well as agriculturally associated avian species. As pathogenic Vibrios become more abundant throughout the world as a result of warming estuaries and oceans, susceptible avian species should be continually monitored as potential reservoirs for these pathogens.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andrea J Ayala
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA
| | - C Brandon Ogbunugafor
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, New Haven, CT, USA.
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5
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Wilber MQ, Ohmer MEB, Altman KA, Brannelly LA, LaBumbard BC, Le Sage EH, McDonnell NB, Muñiz Torres AY, Nordheim CL, Pfab F, Richards-Zawacki CL, Rollins-Smith LA, Saenz V, Voyles J, Wetzel DP, Woodhams DC, Briggs CJ. Once a reservoir, always a reservoir? Seasonality affects the pathogen maintenance potential of amphibian hosts. Ecology 2022; 103:e3759. [PMID: 35593515 DOI: 10.1002/ecy.3759] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/15/2021] [Revised: 03/18/2022] [Accepted: 03/31/2022] [Indexed: 11/10/2022]
Abstract
Host species that can independently maintain a pathogen in a host community and contribute to infection in other species are important targets for disease management. However, the potential of host species to maintain a pathogen is not fixed over time, and an important challenge is understanding how within- and across-season variability in host maintenance potential affects pathogen persistence over longer time scales relevant for disease management (e.g., years). Here, we sought to understand the causes and consequences of seasonal infection dynamics in leopard frogs (Rana sphenocephala and R. pipiens) infected with the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd). We addressed three questions broadly applicable to seasonal host-parasite systems. First, to what degree are observed seasonal patterns in infection driven by temperature-dependent infection processes compared to seasonal host demographic processes? Second, how does seasonal variation in maintenance potential affect long-term pathogen persistence in multihost communities? Third, does high deterministic maintenance potential relate to the long-term stochastic persistence of pathogens in host populations with seasonal infection dynamics? To answer these questions, we used field data collected over three years on >1400 amphibians across four geographic locations, laboratory and mesocosm experiments, and a novel mathematical model. We found that the mechanisms that drive seasonal prevalence were different than those driving seasonal infection intensity. Seasonal variation in Bd prevalence was driven primarily by changes in host contact rates associated with breeding migrations to and from aquatic habitat. In contrast, seasonal changes in infection intensity were driven by temperature-induced changes in Bd growth rate. Using our model, we found that the maintenance potential of leopard frogs varied significantly throughout the year and that seasonal troughs in infection prevalence made it unlikely that leopard frogs were responsible for long-term Bd persistence in these seasonal amphibian communities, highlighting the importance of alternative pathogen reservoirs for Bd persistence. Our results have broad implications for management in seasonal host-pathogen systems, showing that seasonal changes in host and pathogen vital rates, rather than the depletion of susceptible hosts, can lead to troughs in pathogen prevalence and stochastic pathogen extirpation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mark Q Wilber
- Department of Forestry, Wildlife, and Fisheries, University of Tennessee, Institute of Agriculture, Knoxville, TN.,Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA
| | - Michel E B Ohmer
- Living Earth Collaborative, Washington University in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO.,Department of Biological Sciences, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA.,Department of Biology, University of Mississippi, Oxford, MS
| | - Karie A Altman
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA.,Department of Biology, St. Bonaventure University, St Bonaventure, NY
| | - Laura A Brannelly
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA.,Melbourne Veterinary School, Faculty of Veterinary and Agricultural Sciences, The University of Melbourne, Werribee, Victoria, Australia
| | - Brandon C LaBumbard
- Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts Boston, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Emily H Le Sage
- Department of Pathology Microbiology, and Immunology, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN
| | - Nina B McDonnell
- Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts Boston, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Aura Y Muñiz Torres
- Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts Boston, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Caitlin L Nordheim
- Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA.,Department of Biological Sciences, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
| | - Ferdinand Pfab
- Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA
| | | | - Louise A Rollins-Smith
- Department of Pathology Microbiology, and Immunology, Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, TN
| | - Veronica Saenz
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
| | - Jamie Voyles
- Department of Biology, University of Nevada, Reno, Reno, NV
| | - Daniel P Wetzel
- Department of Biological Sciences, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, PA
| | - Douglas C Woodhams
- Department of Biology, University of Massachusetts Boston, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Cheryl J Briggs
- Ecology, Evolution and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA
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6
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Huang Y, Kausrud K, Hassim A, Ochai SO, van Schalkwyk OL, Dekker EH, Buyantuev A, Cloete CC, Kilian JW, Mfune JKE, Kamath PL, van Heerden H, Turner WC. Environmental drivers of biseasonal anthrax outbreak dynamics in two multihost savanna systems. ECOL MONOGR 2022. [DOI: 10.1002/ecm.1526] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/06/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Yen‐Hua Huang
- Wisconsin Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison WI USA
| | - Kyrre Kausrud
- Norwegian Veterinary Institute, PO. box 64 Ås Norway
| | - Ayesha Hassim
- Department of Veterinary Tropical Diseases University of Pretoria Onderstepoort South Africa
| | - Sunday O. Ochai
- Department of Veterinary Tropical Diseases University of Pretoria Onderstepoort South Africa
| | - O. Louis van Schalkwyk
- Department of Veterinary Tropical Diseases University of Pretoria Onderstepoort South Africa
- Office of the State Veterinarian, Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development Government of South Africa Skukuza South Africa
- Department of Migration Max Planck Institute of Animal Behavior Radolfzell Germany
| | - Edgar H. Dekker
- Office of the State Veterinarian, Department of Agriculture, Land Reform and Rural Development Government of South Africa Skukuza South Africa
| | - Alexander Buyantuev
- Department of Geography and Planning, University at Albany State University of New York Albany NY USA
| | - Claudine C. Cloete
- Etosha Ecological Institute, Etosha National Park, Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Tourism Namibia
| | - J. Werner Kilian
- Etosha Ecological Institute, Etosha National Park, Ministry of Environment, Forestry and Tourism Namibia
| | - John K. E. Mfune
- Department of Environmental Science University of Namibia Windhoek Namibia
| | | | - Henriette van Heerden
- Department of Veterinary Tropical Diseases University of Pretoria Onderstepoort South Africa
- Faculty of Veterinary Science, Department of Veterinary Tropical Diseases University of Pretoria Onderstepoort South Africa
| | - Wendy C. Turner
- U.S. Geological Survey, Wisconsin Cooperative Wildlife Research Unit, Department of Forest and Wildlife Ecology University of Wisconsin‐Madison Madison WI USA
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7
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Reassortment and Persistence of Influenza A Viruses from Diverse Geographic Origins within Australian Wild Birds: Evidence from a Small, Isolated Population of Ruddy Turnstones. J Virol 2021; 95:JVI.02193-20. [PMID: 33627387 DOI: 10.1128/jvi.02193-20] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2020] [Accepted: 02/10/2021] [Indexed: 12/28/2022] Open
Abstract
Australian lineages of avian influenza A viruses (AIVs) are thought to be phylogenetically distinct from those circulating in Eurasia and the Americas, suggesting the circulation of endemic viruses seeded by occasional introductions from other regions. However, processes underlying the introduction, evolution and maintenance of AIVs in Australia remain poorly understood. Waders (order Charadriiformes, family Scolopacidae) may play a unique role in the ecology and evolution of AIVs, particularly in Australia, where ducks, geese, and swans (order Anseriformes, family Anatidae) rarely undertake intercontinental migrations. Across a 5-year surveillance period (2011 to 2015), ruddy turnstones (Arenaria interpres) that "overwinter" during the Austral summer in southeastern Australia showed generally low levels of AIV prevalence (0 to 2%). However, in March 2014, we detected AIVs in 32% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25 to 39%) of individuals in a small, low-density, island population 90 km from the Australian mainland. This epizootic comprised three distinct AIV genotypes, each of which represent a unique reassortment of Australian-, recently introduced Eurasian-, and recently introduced American-lineage gene segments. Strikingly, the Australian-lineage gene segments showed high similarity to those of H10N7 viruses isolated in 2010 and 2012 from poultry outbreaks 900 to 1,500 km to the north. Together with the diverse geographic origins of the American and Eurasian gene segments, these findings suggest extensive circulation and reassortment of AIVs within Australian wild birds over vast geographic distances. Our findings indicate that long-term surveillance in waders may yield unique insights into AIV gene flow, especially in geographic regions like Oceania, where Anatidae species do not display regular inter- or intracontinental migration.IMPORTANCE High prevalence of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) was detected in a small, low-density, isolated population of ruddy turnstones in Australia. Analysis of these viruses revealed relatively recent introductions of viral gene segments from both Eurasia and North America, as well as long-term persistence of introduced gene segments in Australian wild birds. These data demonstrate that the flow of viruses into Australia may be more common than initially thought and that, once introduced, these AIVs have the potential to be maintained within the continent. These findings add to a growing body of evidence suggesting that Australian wild birds are unlikely to be ecologically isolated from the highly pathogenic H5Nx viruses circulating among wild birds throughout the Northern Hemisphere.
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Gorsich EE, Webb CT, Merton AA, Hoeting JA, Miller RS, Farnsworth ML, Swafford SR, DeLiberto TJ, Pedersen K, Franklin AB, McLean RG, Wilson KR, Doherty PF. Continental-scale dynamics of avian influenza in U.S. waterfowl are driven by demography, migration, and temperature. ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS : A PUBLICATION OF THE ECOLOGICAL SOCIETY OF AMERICA 2021; 31:e2245. [PMID: 33098602 PMCID: PMC7988533 DOI: 10.1002/eap.2245] [Citation(s) in RCA: 5] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/24/2020] [Revised: 06/20/2020] [Accepted: 08/16/2020] [Indexed: 06/11/2023]
Abstract
Emerging diseases of wildlife origin are increasingly spilling over into humans and domestic animals. Surveillance and risk assessments for transmission between these populations are informed by a mechanistic understanding of the pathogens in wildlife reservoirs. For avian influenza viruses (AIV), much observational and experimental work in wildlife has been conducted at local scales, yet fully understanding their spread and distribution requires assessing the mechanisms acting at both local, (e.g., intrinsic epidemic dynamics), and continental scales, (e.g., long-distance migration). Here, we combined a large, continental-scale data set on low pathogenic, Type A AIV in the United States with a novel network-based application of bird banding/recovery data to investigate the migration-based drivers of AIV and their relative importance compared to well-characterized local drivers (e.g., demography, environmental persistence). We compared among regression models reflecting hypothesized ecological processes and evaluated their ability to predict AIV in space and time using within and out-of-sample validation. We found that predictors of AIV were associated with multiple mechanisms at local and continental scales. Hypotheses characterizing local epidemic dynamics were strongly supported, with age, the age-specific aggregation of migratory birds in an area and temperature being the best predictors of infection. Hypotheses defining larger, network-based features of the migration processes, such as clustering or between-cluster mixing explained less variation but were also supported. Therefore, our results support a role for local processes in driving the continental distribution of AIV.
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Affiliation(s)
- Erin E. Gorsich
- School of Life SciencesUniversity of WarwickCoventryCV4 7ALUnited Kingdom
- The Zeeman Institute: Systems Biology and Infectious Disease Epidemiology Research (SBIDER)University of WarwickCoventryCV4 7ALUnited Kingdom
- Department of BiologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColorado80521USA
- Graduate Degree Program in EcologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColorado80521USA
| | - Colleen T. Webb
- Department of BiologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColorado80521USA
- Graduate Degree Program in EcologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColorado80521USA
| | - Andrew A. Merton
- Department of StatisticsColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColorado80521USA
| | - Jennifer A. Hoeting
- Department of StatisticsColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColorado80521USA
| | - Ryan S. Miller
- Centers for Epidemiology and Animal HealthUSDA APHIS Veterinary ServicesFort CollinsColorado80526USA
| | - Matthew L. Farnsworth
- Centers for Epidemiology and Animal HealthUSDA APHIS Veterinary ServicesFort CollinsColorado80526USA
| | - Seth R. Swafford
- National Wildlife Disease ProgramUSDA APHIS Wildlife ServicesFort CollinsColorado80521USA
- National Wildlife Refuge SystemUS Fish and Wildlife ServiceYazoo CityMississippi39194USA
| | - Thomas J. DeLiberto
- National Wildlife Disease ProgramUSDA APHIS Wildlife ServicesFort CollinsColorado80521USA
| | - Kerri Pedersen
- National Wildlife Disease ProgramUSDA APHIS Wildlife ServicesFort CollinsColorado80521USA
- USDA APHIS Wildlife ServicesRaleighNorth Carolina27606USA
| | - Alan B. Franklin
- National Wildlife Research CenterUSDA APHIS Wildlife ServicesFort CollinsColorado80521USA
| | - Robert G. McLean
- National Wildlife Research CenterUSDA APHIS Wildlife ServicesFort CollinsColorado80521USA
| | - Kenneth R. Wilson
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation BiologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColorado80521USA
| | - Paul F. Doherty
- Department of Fish, Wildlife, and Conservation BiologyColorado State UniversityFort CollinsColorado80521USA
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9
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Root JJ, Shriner SA. Avian Influenza A Virus Associations in Wild, Terrestrial Mammals: A Review of Potential Synanthropic Vectors to Poultry Facilities. Viruses 2020; 12:E1352. [PMID: 33256041 PMCID: PMC7761170 DOI: 10.3390/v12121352] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/29/2020] [Revised: 11/18/2020] [Accepted: 11/20/2020] [Indexed: 12/24/2022] Open
Abstract
The potential role of wild mammals in the epidemiology of influenza A viruses (IAVs) at the farm-side level has gained increasing consideration over the past two decades. In some instances, select mammals may be more likely to visit riparian areas (both close and distant to farms) as well as poultry farms, as compared to traditional reservoir hosts, such as waterfowl. Of significance, many mammalian species can successfully replicate and shed multiple avian IAVs to high titers without prior virus adaptation and often can shed virus in greater quantities than synanthropic avian species. Within this review, we summarize and discuss the potential risks that synanthropic mammals could pose by trafficking IAVs to poultry operations based on current and historic literature.
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Affiliation(s)
- J. Jeffrey Root
- U.S. Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, National Wildlife Research Center, Fort Collins, CO 80521, USA;
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10
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SUSCEPTIBILITY OF LAUGHING GULLS (LEUCOPHAEUS ATRICILLA) AND MALLARDS (ANAS PLATYRHYNCHOS) TO RUDDY TURNSTONE (ARENARIA INTERPRES MORINELLA) ORIGIN TYPE A INFLUENZA VIRUSES. J Wildl Dis 2020. [DOI: 10.7589/2019-03-065] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/20/2022]
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11
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Abstract
During recent years, serological evidence has shown that a number of peridomestic mammals (e.g., those commonly found in or around human structures) are naturally exposed to influenza A viruses (IAVs). In addition, experimental studies have demonstrated that many of these species can successfully replicate several different IAVs, including IAVs of high consequence to public or agricultural health. The replication of some IAVs within this group of mammals could have implications for biosecurity associated with poultry production and live bird markets in some regions of the world. Given this evidence, the need for further study and understanding of the role that peridomestic mammals may play in IAV dynamics is increasingly being recognized. This chapter will provide a general overview on IAV associations in peridomestic mammals, especially as they pertain to avian IAVs, and provide some general views and guidelines for sampling these species in various situations.
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12
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Bahnson CS, Poulson RL, Hollander LP, Bradley JAC, Stallknecht DE. SUSCEPTIBILITY OF LAUGHING GULLS ( LEUCOPHAEUS ATRICILLA) AND MALLARDS ( ANAS PLATYRHYNCHOS) TO RUDDY TURNSTONE ( ARENARIA INTERPRES MORINELLA) ORIGIN TYPE A INFLUENZA VIRUSES. J Wildl Dis 2020; 56:167-174. [PMID: 31532732 PMCID: PMC9202238] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 06/10/2023]
Abstract
Delaware Bay, US is the only documented location where influenza A virus (IAV) is consistently detected in a shorebird species, the Ruddy Turnstone (RUTU; Arenaria interpres morinella). Although IAV in shorebirds has been well studied at this site for decades, the importance of other species in the avian community as potential sources for the IAVs that infect RUTUs each spring remains unclear. We determined the susceptibility of Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and Laughing Gulls (Leucophaeus atricilla), to IAVs isolated from RUTUs in order to gain insight into the potential host range of these viruses. Captive-reared gulls were challenged with RUTU-origin H6N1, H10N7, H11N9, H12N4, and H13N6 IAV, as well as Mallard-origin H6N1 and H11N9. We challenged captive-reared Mallards with the same viruses, except for H13N6. At a biologically plausible challenge dose (104 50% embryo infective doses/0.1 mL), one of five gulls challenged with both H6N1 IAVs shed virus. The remaining gulls were resistant to infection with all viruses. In contrast, all Mallards were infected and shed virus. The H12N4 Mallard challenge group was an exception with no birds infected. These results indicated that Mallards are permissive to infection with viruses originating from a shorebird host and that interspecies transmission could occur. In contrast, host adaptation of IAVs to RUTUs may compromise their ability to be transmitted back to gulls.
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Affiliation(s)
- Charlie S. Bahnson
- Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study, 589 D. W. Brooks Drive, College of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Population Health, The University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602, USA
| | - Rebecca L. Poulson
- Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study, 589 D. W. Brooks Drive, College of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Population Health, The University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602, USA
| | - Laura P. Hollander
- Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study, 589 D. W. Brooks Drive, College of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Population Health, The University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602, USA
| | - Jo A. Crum Bradley
- Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study, 589 D. W. Brooks Drive, College of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Population Health, The University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602, USA
| | - David E. Stallknecht
- Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study, 589 D. W. Brooks Drive, College of Veterinary Medicine, Department of Population Health, The University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia 30602, USA
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13
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Predicting Ebola virus disease risk and the role of African bat birthing. Epidemics 2019; 29:100366. [PMID: 31744768 DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2019.100366] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/14/2019] [Revised: 08/19/2019] [Accepted: 08/22/2019] [Indexed: 02/03/2023] Open
Abstract
Ebola virus disease (EVD) presents a threat to public health throughout equatorial Africa. Despite numerous 'spillover' events into humans and apes, the maintenance reservoirs and mechanism of spillover are poorly understood. Evidence suggests fruit bats play a role in both instances, yet data remain sparse and bats exhibit a wide range of life history traits. Here we pool sparse data and use a mechanistic approach to examine how birthing cycles of African fruit bats, molossid bats, and non-molossid microbats inform the spatio-temporal occurrence of EVD spillover. We create ensemble niche models to predict spatio-temporally varying bat birthing and model outbreaks as spatio-temporal Poisson point processes. We predict three distinct annual birthing patterns among African bats along a latitudinal gradient. Of the EVD spillover models tested, the best by quasi-Akaike information criterion (qAIC) and by out of sample prediction included significant African bat birth-related terms. Temporal bat birthing terms fit in the best models for both human and animal outbreaks were consistent with hypothesized viral dynamics in bat populations, but purely spatial models also performed well. Our best model predicted risk of EVD spillover at locations of the two 2018 EVD outbreaks in the Democratic Republic of the Congo was within the top 12-35% and 0.1% of all 25 × 25 km spatial cells analyzed in sub-Saharan Africa. Results suggest that sparse data can be leveraged to help understand complex systems.
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14
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Blackburn JK, Ganz HH, Ponciano JM, Turner WC, Ryan SJ, Kamath P, Cizauskas C, Kausrud K, Holt RD, Stenseth NC, Getz WM. Modeling R₀ for Pathogens with Environmental Transmission: Animal Movements, Pathogen Populations, and Local Infectious Zones. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2019; 16:E954. [PMID: 30884913 PMCID: PMC6466347 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph16060954] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/22/2018] [Revised: 03/04/2019] [Accepted: 03/07/2019] [Indexed: 01/24/2023]
Abstract
How a disease is transmitted affects our ability to determine R₀, the average number of new cases caused by an infectious host at the onset of an epidemic. R₀ becomes progressively more difficult to compute as transmission varies from directly transmitted diseases to diseases that are vector-borne to environmentally transmitted diseases. Pathogens responsible for diseases with environmental transmission are typically maintained in environmental reservoirs that exhibit a complex spatial distribution of local infectious zones (LIZs). Understanding host encounters with LIZs and pathogen persistence within LIZs is required for an accurate R₀ and modeling these contacts requires an integrated geospatial and dynamical systems approach. Here we review how interactions between host and pathogen populations and environmental reservoirs are driven by landscape-level variables, and synthesize the quantitative framework needed to formulate outbreak response and disease control.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jason K Blackburn
- Spatial Epidemiology and Ecology Research Laboratory, Department of Geography, University of Florida, 3141 Turlington Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, 2055 Mowry Road, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
| | - Holly H Ganz
- Davis Genome Center, University of California, 451 Health Sciences Dr., Davis, CA 95616, USA.
| | | | - Wendy C Turner
- Department of Biological Sciences, State University of New York, 1400 Washington Avenue, Albany, NY 12222, USA.
| | - Sadie J Ryan
- Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, 2055 Mowry Road, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
- Quantitative Disease Ecology & Conservation Lab, Department of Geography, University of Florida, 3141 Turlington Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
- School of Life Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4041, South Africa.
| | - Pauline Kamath
- School of Food and Agriculture, University of Maine, 5763 Rogers Hall, Room 210, Orono, ME 04469, USA.
| | - Carrie Cizauskas
- Department of Environmental Science, Policy, and Management, University of California, Berkeley, 130 Mulford Hall, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA.
| | - Kyrre Kausrud
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, 0361 Oslo, Norway.
| | - Robert D Holt
- Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA.
| | - Nils Chr Stenseth
- Centre for Ecological and Evolutionary Synthesis (CEES), Department of Biosciences, University of Oslo, P.O. Box 1066 Blindern, 0361 Oslo, Norway.
| | - Wayne M Getz
- School of Food and Agriculture, University of Maine, 5763 Rogers Hall, Room 210, Orono, ME 04469, USA.
- School of Mathematical Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban 4041, South Africa.
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15
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Torrontegi O, Alvarez V, Acevedo P, Gerrikagoitia X, Höfle U, Barral M. Long-term avian influenza virus epidemiology in a small Spanish wetland ecosystem is driven by the breeding Anseriformes community. Vet Res 2019; 50:4. [PMID: 30654831 PMCID: PMC6337815 DOI: 10.1186/s13567-019-0623-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/09/2018] [Accepted: 11/20/2018] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
During 2007-2009 and 2012-2014, avian influenza virus (AIV) was studied in a wild avian community of a northern Spanish wetland using non-invasive sampling methods and host identification by COI barcoding. The aim of this longitudinal study was to evaluate AIV dynamics in a natural wetland ecosystem, taking into account both virological aspects and ecological traits of hosts. Global AIV prevalence decreased significantly during the second sampling period (0.3%) compared to the first (6.6%). Circulating subtype distributions were also different between periods, with a noteworthy H5 and H7 subtype richness during the first sampling period. Mallard Anas platyrhynchos was identified as the main AIV host, although not all positive samples could be ascribed to the host. We modelled AIV prevalence with regard to the avian host community composition and meteorological data from the wetland. Statistical analysis revealed seasonal differences in AIV detection, with higher prevalence during the breeding season compared to other phenological events. The model also shows that the lower AIV prevalence during the second study period was associated with a significant reduction of breeding Anseriformes in the wetland, revealing a long-term fluctuation of AIV prevalence driven by the breeding Anseriformes community. This longitudinal study on AIV epidemiology in a natural ecosystem reveals that although prevalence follows seasonal and annual patterns, long-term prevalence fluctuation is linked to the breeding community composition and size. These results are relevant to understanding the influence of host ecology on pathogen transmission for preventing and managing influenza emergence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Olalla Torrontegi
- Animal Health Department, NEIKER-Instituto Vasco de Investigación y Desarrollo Agrario, Parque tecnológico de Bizkaia P-812, 48160 Derio, Bizkaia Spain
| | - Vega Alvarez
- Animal Health Department, NEIKER-Instituto Vasco de Investigación y Desarrollo Agrario, Parque tecnológico de Bizkaia P-812, 48160 Derio, Bizkaia Spain
| | - Pelayo Acevedo
- Grupo SaBio, Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos, IREC (CSIC-UCLM-JCCM), Ronda de Toledo 12, 13071 Ciudad Real, Spain
| | - Xeider Gerrikagoitia
- Animal Health Department, NEIKER-Instituto Vasco de Investigación y Desarrollo Agrario, Parque tecnológico de Bizkaia P-812, 48160 Derio, Bizkaia Spain
| | - Ursula Höfle
- Grupo SaBio, Instituto de Investigación en Recursos Cinegéticos, IREC (CSIC-UCLM-JCCM), Ronda de Toledo 12, 13071 Ciudad Real, Spain
| | - Marta Barral
- Animal Health Department, NEIKER-Instituto Vasco de Investigación y Desarrollo Agrario, Parque tecnológico de Bizkaia P-812, 48160 Derio, Bizkaia Spain
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16
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Becker DJ, Teitelbaum CS, Murray MH, Curry SE, Welch CN, Ellison T, Adams HC, Rozier RS, Lipp EK, Hernandez SM, Altizer S, Hall RJ. Assessing the contributions of intraspecific and environmental sources of infection in urban wildlife: Salmonella enterica and white ibis as a case study. J R Soc Interface 2018; 15:20180654. [PMID: 30958239 PMCID: PMC6303792 DOI: 10.1098/rsif.2018.0654] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.2] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/30/2018] [Accepted: 11/15/2018] [Indexed: 01/11/2023] Open
Abstract
Conversion of natural habitats into urban landscapes can expose wildlife to novel pathogens and alter pathogen transmission pathways. Because transmission is difficult to quantify for many wildlife pathogens, mathematical models paired with field observations can help select among competing transmission pathways that might operate in urban landscapes. Here we develop a mathematical model for the enteric bacteria Salmonella enterica in urban-foraging white ibis ( Eudocimus albus) in south Florida as a case study to determine (i) the relative importance of contact-based versus environmental transmission among ibis and (ii) whether transmission can be supported by ibis alone or requires external sources of infection. We use biannual field prevalence data to restrict model outputs generated from a Latin hypercube sample of parameter space and select among competing transmission scenarios. We find the most support for transmission from environmental uptake rather than between-host contact and that ibis-ibis transmission alone could maintain low infection prevalence. Our analysis provides the first parameter estimates for Salmonella shedding and uptake in a wild bird and provides a key starting point for predicting how ibis response to urbanization alters their exposure to a multi-host zoonotic enteric pathogen. More broadly, our study provides an analytical roadmap to assess transmission pathways of multi-host wildlife pathogens in the face of scarce infection data.
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Affiliation(s)
- Daniel J. Becker
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Disease, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
- Department of Biology, Indiana University, Bloomington, IN, USA
| | - Claire S. Teitelbaum
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Disease, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | - Maureen H. Murray
- Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
- Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | - Shannon E. Curry
- Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
- Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | - Catharine N. Welch
- Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
- Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | - Taylor Ellison
- Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
- Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | - Henry C. Adams
- Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
- Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | - R. Scott Rozier
- Department of Environmental Health Science, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | - Erin K. Lipp
- Department of Environmental Health Science, College of Public Health, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | - Sonia M. Hernandez
- Warnell School of Forestry and Natural Resources, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
- Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | - Sonia Altizer
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Disease, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | - Richard J. Hall
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
- Center for the Ecology of Infectious Disease, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
- Department of Infectious Disease, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
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17
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Pinsent A, Pepin KM, Zhu H, Guan Y, White MT, Riley S. The persistence of multiple strains of avian influenza in live bird markets. Proc Biol Sci 2017; 284:rspb.2017.0715. [PMID: 29212718 PMCID: PMC5740266 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2017.0715] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/05/2017] [Accepted: 11/06/2017] [Indexed: 02/05/2023] Open
Abstract
Multiple subtypes of avian influenza (AI) and novel reassortants are frequently isolated from live bird markets (LBMs). However, our understanding of the drivers of persistence of multiple AI subtypes is limited. We propose a stochastic model of AI transmission within an LBM that incorporates market size, turnover rate and the balance of direct versus environmental transmissibility. We investigate the relationship between these factors and the critical community size (CCS) for the persistence of single and multiple AI strains within an LBM. We fit different models of seeding from farms to two-strain surveillance data collected from Shantou, China. For a single strain and plausible estimates for continuous turnover rates and transmissibility, the CCS was approximately 11 800 birds, only a 4.2% increase in this estimate was needed to ensure persistence of the co-infecting strains (two strains in a single host). Precise values of CCS estimates were sensitive to changes in market turnover rate and duration of the latent period. Assuming a gradual daily sell rate of birds the estimated CCS was higher than when an instantaneous selling rate was assumed. We were able to reproduce prevalence dynamics similar to observations from a single market in China with infection seeded every 5-15 days, and a maximum non-seeding duration of 80 days. Our findings suggest that persistence of co-infections is more likely to be owing to sequential infection of single strains rather than ongoing transmission of both strains concurrently. In any given system for a fixed set of ecological and epidemiological conditions, there is an LBM size below which the risk of sustained co-circulation is low and which may suggest a clear policy opportunity to reduce the frequency of influenza co-infection in poultry.
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Affiliation(s)
- Amy Pinsent
- MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Kim M Pepin
- National Wildlife Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, Wildlife Services, Fort Collins, CO, USA
| | - Huachen Zhu
- Joint Influenza Research Centre (SUMC/HKU), Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, People's Republic of China
- State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases/Centre of Influenza Research, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, People's Republic of China
| | - Yi Guan
- Joint Influenza Research Centre (SUMC/HKU), Shantou University Medical College, Shantou, People's Republic of China
- State Key Laboratory of Emerging Infectious Diseases/Centre of Influenza Research, School of Public Health, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, SAR, People's Republic of China
| | - Michael T White
- MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Steven Riley
- MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
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18
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Impact of metric and sample size on determining malaria hotspot boundaries. Sci Rep 2017; 7:45849. [PMID: 28401903 PMCID: PMC5388846 DOI: 10.1038/srep45849] [Citation(s) in RCA: 13] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/25/2016] [Accepted: 03/06/2017] [Indexed: 11/13/2022] Open
Abstract
The spatial heterogeneity of malaria suggests that interventions may be targeted for maximum impact. It is unclear to what extent different metrics lead to consistent delineation of hotspot boundaries. Using data from a large community-based malaria survey in the western Kenyan highlands, we assessed the agreement between a model-based geostatistical (MBG) approach to detect hotspots using Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence and serological evidence for exposure. Malaria transmission was widespread and highly heterogeneous with one third of the total population living in hotspots regardless of metric tested. Moderate agreement (Kappa = 0.424) was observed between hotspots defined based on parasite prevalence by polymerase chain reaction (PCR)- and the prevalence of antibodies to two P. falciparum antigens (MSP-1, AMA-1). While numerous biologically plausible hotspots were identified, their detection strongly relied on the proportion of the population sampled. When only 3% of the population was sampled, no PCR derived hotspots were reliably detected and at least 21% of the population was needed for reliable results. Similar results were observed for hotspots of seroprevalence. Hotspot boundaries are driven by the malaria diagnostic and sample size used to inform the model. These findings warn against the simplistic use of spatial analysis on available data to target malaria interventions in areas where hotspot boundaries are uncertain.
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19
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Buhnerkempe MG, Prager KC, Strelioff CC, Greig DJ, Laake JL, Melin SR, DeLong RL, Gulland FMD, Lloyd-Smith JO. Detecting signals of chronic shedding to explain pathogen persistence: Leptospira interrogans in California sea lions. J Anim Ecol 2017; 86:460-472. [PMID: 28207932 PMCID: PMC7166352 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12656] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/07/2016] [Accepted: 02/02/2017] [Indexed: 01/12/2023]
Abstract
Identifying mechanisms driving pathogen persistence is a vital component of wildlife disease ecology and control. Asymptomatic, chronically infected individuals are an oft‐cited potential reservoir of infection, but demonstrations of the importance of chronic shedding to pathogen persistence at the population‐level remain scarce. Studying chronic shedding using commonly collected disease data is hampered by numerous challenges, including short‐term surveillance that focuses on single epidemics and acutely ill individuals, the subtle dynamical influence of chronic shedding relative to more obvious epidemic drivers, and poor ability to differentiate between the effects of population prevalence of chronic shedding vs. intensity and duration of chronic shedding in individuals. We use chronic shedding of Leptospira interrogans serovar Pomona in California sea lions (Zalophus californianus) as a case study to illustrate how these challenges can be addressed. Using leptospirosis‐induced strands as a measure of disease incidence, we fit models with and without chronic shedding, and with different seasonal drivers, to determine the time‐scale over which chronic shedding is detectable and the interactions between chronic shedding and seasonal drivers needed to explain persistence and outbreak patterns. Chronic shedding can enable persistence of L. interrogans within the sea lion population. However, the importance of chronic shedding was only apparent when surveillance data included at least two outbreaks and the intervening inter‐epidemic trough during which fadeout of transmission was most likely. Seasonal transmission, as opposed to seasonal recruitment of susceptibles, was the dominant driver of seasonality in this system, and both seasonal factors had limited impact on long‐term pathogen persistence. We show that the temporal extent of surveillance data can have a dramatic impact on inferences about population processes, where the failure to identify both short‐ and long‐term ecological drivers can have cascading impacts on understanding higher order ecological phenomena, such as pathogen persistence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Michael G Buhnerkempe
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California - Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.,Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Katherine C Prager
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California - Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.,Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
| | - Christopher C Strelioff
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California - Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA
| | | | - Jeff L Laake
- National Marine Mammal Laboratory, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Sharon R Melin
- National Marine Mammal Laboratory, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, USA
| | - Robert L DeLong
- National Marine Mammal Laboratory, Alaska Fisheries Science Center, National Marine Fisheries Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Seattle, WA, USA
| | | | - James O Lloyd-Smith
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California - Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA, USA.,Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA
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20
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Avril A, Grosbois V, Latorre-Margalef N, Gaidet N, Tolf C, Olsen B, Waldenström J. Capturing individual-level parameters of influenza A virus dynamics in wild ducks using multistate models. J Appl Ecol 2016. [DOI: 10.1111/1365-2664.12699] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 12/13/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Alexis Avril
- Centre for Ecology and Evolution in Microbial Model Systems (EEMiS); Linnaeus University; SE-39182 Kalmar Sweden
| | - Vladimir Grosbois
- CIRAD; Campus International de Baillarguet; 34398 Montpellier France
| | - Neus Latorre-Margalef
- Centre for Ecology and Evolution in Microbial Model Systems (EEMiS); Linnaeus University; SE-39182 Kalmar Sweden
- Department of Population Health; College of Veterinary Medicine; Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study; University of Georgia; Athens GA 30602 USA
| | - Nicolas Gaidet
- CIRAD; Campus International de Baillarguet; 34398 Montpellier France
| | - Conny Tolf
- Centre for Ecology and Evolution in Microbial Model Systems (EEMiS); Linnaeus University; SE-39182 Kalmar Sweden
| | - Björn Olsen
- Zoonosis Science Centre; Department of Medical Biochemistry and Microbiology; Uppsala University; SE-751 85 Uppsala Sweden
| | - Jonas Waldenström
- Centre for Ecology and Evolution in Microbial Model Systems (EEMiS); Linnaeus University; SE-39182 Kalmar Sweden
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21
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Dalziel AE, Peck HA, Hurt AC, Cooke J, Cassey P. Proposed Surveillance for Influenza A in Feral Pigs. ECOHEALTH 2016; 13:410-414. [PMID: 27174429 DOI: 10.1007/s10393-016-1126-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/29/2015] [Revised: 04/03/2016] [Accepted: 04/08/2016] [Indexed: 06/05/2023]
Abstract
Pigs carry receptors for both avian- and human-adapted influenza viruses and have previously been proposed as a mixing and amplification vessel for influenza. Until now, there has been no investigation of influenza A viruses within feral pigs in Australia. We collected samples from feral pigs in Ramsar listed wetlands of South Australia and demonstrated positive antibodies to influenza A viruses. We propose feral pigs, and their control programs, as an available resource for future surveillance for influenza A viruses.
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Affiliation(s)
- Antonia E Dalziel
- Benham Laboratories, School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, 5005, Australia.
| | - Heidi A Peck
- World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, VIDRL, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia
| | - Aeron C Hurt
- World Health Organization (WHO) Collaborating Centre for Reference and Research on Influenza, VIDRL, at the Peter Doherty Institute, Melbourne, VIC, 3000, Australia
| | - Julie Cooke
- Diagnostic and Surveillance Response Laboratory, Australian Animal Health Laboratory, CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation), Geelong, VIC, 3220, Australia
| | - Phillip Cassey
- Benham Laboratories, School of Biological Sciences, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, 5005, Australia
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22
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Guinn K, Fojtik A, Davis-Fields N, Poulson RL, Krauss S, Webster RG, Stallknecht DE. Antibodies to Influenza A Viruses in Gulls at Delaware Bay, USA. Avian Dis 2016; 60:341-5. [DOI: 10.1637/11103-042115-reg] [Citation(s) in RCA: 7] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/05/2022]
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23
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Handel A, Lebarbenchon C, Stallknecht D, Rohani P. Trade-offs between and within scales: environmental persistence and within-host fitness of avian influenza viruses. Proc Biol Sci 2015; 281:rspb.2013.3051. [PMID: 24898369 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.3051] [Citation(s) in RCA: 26] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.9] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 01/12/2023] Open
Abstract
Trade-offs between different components of a pathogen's replication and transmission cycle are thought to be common. A number of studies have identified trade-offs that emerge across scales, reflecting the tension between strategies that optimize within-host proliferation and large-scale population spread. Most of these studies are theoretical in nature, with direct experimental tests of such cross-scale trade-offs still rare. Here, we report an analysis of avian influenza A viruses across scales, focusing on the phenotype of temperature-dependent viral persistence. Taking advantage of a unique dataset that reports both environmental virus decay rates and strain-specific viral kinetics from duck challenge experiments, we show that the temperature-dependent environmental decay rate of a strain does not impact within-host virus load. Hence, for this phenotype, the scales of within-host infection dynamics and between-host environmental persistence do not seem to interact: viral fitness may be optimized on each scale without cross-scale trade-offs. Instead, we confirm the existence of a temperature-dependent persistence trade-off on a single scale, with some strains favouring environmental persistence in water at low temperatures while others reduce sensitivity to increasing temperatures. We show that this temperature-dependent trade-off is a robust phenomenon and does not depend on the details of data analysis. Our findings suggest that viruses might employ different environmental persistence strategies, which facilitates the coexistence of diverse strains in ecological niches. We conclude that a better understanding of the transmission and evolutionary dynamics of influenza A viruses probably requires empirical information regarding both within-host dynamics and environmental traits, integrated within a combined ecological and within-host framework.
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Affiliation(s)
- Andreas Handel
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, The University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
| | - Camille Lebarbenchon
- University of Reunion Island, Avenue René Cassin, Saint-Denis Cedex 97715, Reunion Island
| | - David Stallknecht
- Department of Population Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, The University of Georgia, Athens, GA 30602, USA
| | - Pejman Rohani
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA
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24
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Peel AJ, Pulliam JRC, Luis AD, Plowright RK, O'Shea TJ, Hayman DTS, Wood JLN, Webb CT, Restif O. The effect of seasonal birth pulses on pathogen persistence in wild mammal populations. Proc Biol Sci 2015; 281:rspb.2013.2962. [PMID: 24827436 PMCID: PMC4046395 DOI: 10.1098/rspb.2013.2962] [Citation(s) in RCA: 73] [Impact Index Per Article: 8.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/21/2022] Open
Abstract
The notion of a critical community size (CCS), or population size that is likely to result in long-term persistence of a communicable disease, has been developed based on the empirical observations of acute immunizing infections in human populations, and extended for use in wildlife populations. Seasonal birth pulses are frequently observed in wildlife and are expected to impact infection dynamics, yet their effect on pathogen persistence and CCS have not been considered. To investigate this issue theoretically, we use stochastic epidemiological models to ask how host life-history traits and infection parameters interact to determine pathogen persistence within a closed population. We fit seasonal birth pulse models to data from diverse mammalian species in order to identify realistic parameter ranges. When varying the synchrony of the birth pulse with all other parameters being constant, our model predicted that the CCS can vary by more than two orders of magnitude. Tighter birth pulses tended to drive pathogen extinction by creating large amplitude oscillations in prevalence, especially with high demographic turnover and short infectious periods. Parameters affecting the relative timing of the epidemic and birth pulse peaks determined the intensity and direction of the effect of pre-existing immunity in the population on the pathogen's ability to persist beyond the initial epidemic following its introduction.
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Affiliation(s)
- A J Peel
- Disease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London NW1 4RY, UK Environmental Futures Research Institute, Griffith University, Brisbane, 4111, Australia
| | - J R C Pulliam
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA Department of Biology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611, USA Emerging Pathogens Institute, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610, USA
| | - A D Luis
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
| | - R K Plowright
- Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802, USA
| | - T J O'Shea
- US Geological Survey (retired), PO Box 65, Glen Haven, CO 80532, USA
| | - D T S Hayman
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
| | - J L N Wood
- Disease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK
| | - C T Webb
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA
| | - O Restif
- Disease Dynamics Unit, Department of Veterinary Medicine, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB3 0ES, UK
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Brown VL, Drake JM, Barton HD, Stallknecht DE, Brown JD, Rohani P. Neutrality, cross-immunity and subtype dominance in avian influenza viruses. PLoS One 2014; 9:e88817. [PMID: 24586401 PMCID: PMC3934864 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0088817] [Citation(s) in RCA: 6] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.6] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/18/2012] [Accepted: 01/16/2014] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are considered a threat for their potential to seed human influenza pandemics. Despite their acknowledged importance, there are significant unknowns regarding AIV transmission dynamics in their natural hosts, wild birds. Of particular interest is the difference in subtype dynamics between human and bird populations-in human populations, typically only two or three subtypes cocirculate, while avian populations are capable of simultaneously hosting a multitude of subtypes. One species in particular-ruddy turnstones (Arenaria interpres)--has been found to harbour a very wide range of AIV subtypes, which could make them a key player in the spread of new subtypes in wild bird populations. Very little is known about the mechanisms that drive subtype dynamics in this species, and here we address this gap in our knowledge. Taking advantage of two independent sources of data collected from ruddy turnstones in Delaware Bay, USA, we examine patterns of subtype diversity and dominance at this site. We compare these patterns to those produced by a stochastic, multi-strain transmission model to investigate possible mechanisms that are parsimonious with the observed subtype dynamics. We find, in agreement with earlier experimental work, that subtype differences are unnecessary to replicate the observed dynamics, and that neutrality alone is sufficient. We also evaluate the role of subtype cross-immunity and find that it is not necessary to generate patterns consistent with observations. This work offers new insights into the mechanisms behind subtype diversity and dominance in a species that has the potential to be a key player in AIV dynamics in wild bird populations.
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Affiliation(s)
- Vicki L. Brown
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
- Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
| | - John M. Drake
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Heather D. Barton
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
| | - David E. Stallknecht
- Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Justin D. Brown
- Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study, University of Georgia, Athens, Georgia, United States of America
| | - Pejman Rohani
- Department of Ecology & Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
- Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, Michigan, United States of America
- Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland, United States of America
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Barton HD, Rohani P, Stallknecht DE, Brown J, Drake JM. Subtype diversity and reassortment potential for co-circulating avian influenza viruses at a diversity hot spot. J Anim Ecol 2014; 83:566-75. [PMID: 24164627 DOI: 10.1111/1365-2656.12167] [Citation(s) in RCA: 8] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/08/2012] [Accepted: 10/21/2013] [Indexed: 12/25/2022]
Abstract
Biological diversity has long been used to measure ecological health. While evidence exists from many ecosystems that declines in host biodiversity may lead to greater risk of disease emergence, the role of pathogen diversity in the emergence process remains poorly understood. Particularly, because a more diverse pool of pathogen types provides more ways in which evolutionary innovations may arise, we suggest that host-pathogen systems with high pathogen diversity are more prone to disease emergence than systems with relatively homogeneous pathogen communities. We call this prediction the diversity-emergence hypothesis. To show how this hypothesis could be tested, we studied a system comprised of North American shorebirds and their associated low-pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) viruses. These viruses are important as a potential source of genetic innovations in influenza. A theoretical contribution of this study is an expression predicting the rate of viral subtype reassortment to be proportional to both prevalence and Simpson's Index, a formula that has been used traditionally to quantify biodiversity. We then estimated prevalence and subtype diversity in host species at Delaware Bay, a North American AIV hotspot, and used our model to extrapolate from these data. We estimated that 4 to 39 virus subtypes circulated at Delaware Bay each year between 2000 and 2008, and that surveillance coverage (percentage of co-circulating subtypes collected) at Delaware Bay is only about 63.0%. Simpson's Index in the same period varied more than fourfold from 0.22 to 0.93. These measurements together with the model provide an indirect, model-based estimate of the reassortment rate. A proper test of the diversity-emergence hypothesis would require these results to be joined to independent and reliable estimates of reassortment, perhaps obtained through molecular surveillance. These results suggest both that subtype diversity (and therefore reassortment) varies from year to year and that several subtypes contributing to reassortment are going undetected. The similarity between these results and more detailed studies of one host, ruddy turnstone (Arenaria interpres), further suggests that this species may be the primary host for influenza reassortment at Delaware Bay. Biological diversity has long been quantified using Simpson's Index. Our model links this formula to a mechanistic account of reassortment in multipathogen systems in the form of subtype diversity at Delaware Bay, USA. As a theory of how pathogen diversity may influence the evolution of novel pathogens, this work is a contribution to the larger project of understanding the connections between biodiversity and disease.
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Affiliation(s)
- Heather D Barton
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA
| | - Pejman Rohani
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology and the Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, 48109, USA
| | - David E Stallknecht
- Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA
| | - Justin Brown
- Southeastern Cooperative Wildlife Disease Study, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA
| | - John M Drake
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, 30602, USA
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Pepin KM, Spackman E, Brown JD, Pabilonia KL, Garber LP, Weaver JT, Kennedy DA, Patyk KA, Huyvaert KP, Miller RS, Franklin AB, Pedersen K, Bogich TL, Rohani P, Shriner SA, Webb CT, Riley S. Using quantitative disease dynamics as a tool for guiding response to avian influenza in poultry in the United States of America. Prev Vet Med 2013; 113:376-97. [PMID: 24462191 PMCID: PMC3945821 DOI: 10.1016/j.prevetmed.2013.11.011] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/18/2013] [Revised: 11/22/2013] [Accepted: 11/24/2013] [Indexed: 02/02/2023]
Abstract
Wild birds are the primary source of genetic diversity for influenza A viruses that eventually emerge in poultry and humans. Much progress has been made in the descriptive ecology of avian influenza viruses (AIVs), but contributions are less evident from quantitative studies (e.g., those including disease dynamic models). Transmission between host species, individuals and flocks has not been measured with sufficient accuracy to allow robust quantitative evaluation of alternate control protocols. We focused on the United States of America (USA) as a case study for determining the state of our quantitative knowledge of potential AIV emergence processes from wild hosts to poultry. We identified priorities for quantitative research that would build on existing tools for responding to AIV in poultry and concluded that the following knowledge gaps can be addressed with current empirical data: (1) quantification of the spatio-temporal relationships between AIV prevalence in wild hosts and poultry populations, (2) understanding how the structure of different poultry sectors impacts within-flock transmission, (3) determining mechanisms and rates of between-farm spread, and (4) validating current policy-decision tools with data. The modeling studies we recommend will improve our mechanistic understanding of potential AIV transmission patterns in USA poultry, leading to improved measures of accuracy and reduced uncertainty when evaluating alternative control strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- K M Pepin
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
| | - E Spackman
- Southeast Poultry Research Laboratory, Agricultural Research Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Athens, GA, USA.
| | - J D Brown
- Department of Population Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
| | - K L Pabilonia
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Pathology, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - L P Garber
- Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - J T Weaver
- Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - D A Kennedy
- Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Center for Infectious Disease Dynamics, Department of Biology, Pennsylvania State University, State College, PA, USA.
| | - K A Patyk
- Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - K P Huyvaert
- Warner College of Natural Resources, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - R S Miller
- Centers for Epidemiology and Animal Health, Veterinary Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - A B Franklin
- National Wildlife Research Center, Wildlife Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - K Pedersen
- National Wildlife Research Center, Wildlife Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - T L Bogich
- Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
| | - P Rohani
- Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Center for the Study of Complex Systems, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
| | - S A Shriner
- National Wildlife Research Center, Wildlife Services, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO, USA.
| | - C T Webb
- Department of Biology, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO, USA; Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA.
| | - S Riley
- Fogarty International Center, National Institute of Health, Bethesda, MD, USA; MRC Centre for Outbreak Analysis and Disease Modelling, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Norfolk Place, London, UK.
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28
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Brown VL, Rohani P. The consequences of climate change at an avian influenza 'hotspot'. Biol Lett 2012; 8:1036-9. [PMID: 22933039 PMCID: PMC3497130 DOI: 10.1098/rsbl.2012.0635] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2012] [Accepted: 08/02/2012] [Indexed: 11/12/2022] Open
Abstract
Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) pose significant danger to human health. A key step in managing this threat is understanding the maintenance of AIVs in wild birds, their natural reservoir. Ruddy turnstones (Arenaria interpres) are an atypical bird species in this regard, annually experiencing high AIV prevalence in only one location-Delaware Bay, USA, during their spring migration. While there, they congregate on beaches, attracted by the super-abundance of horseshoe crab eggs. A relationship between ruddy turnstone and horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) population sizes has been established, with a declining horseshoe crab population linked to a corresponding drop in ruddy turnstone population sizes. The effect of this interaction on AIV prevalence in ruddy turnstones has also been addressed. Here, we employ a transmission model to investigate how the interaction between these two species is likely to be altered by climate change. We explore the consequences of this modified interaction on both ruddy turnstone population size and AIV prevalence and show that, if climate change leads to a large enough mismatch in species phenology, AIV prevalence in ruddy turnstones will increase even as their population size decreases.
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Affiliation(s)
- V L Brown
- Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA.
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