Dynamics and ecological consequences of avian influenza virus infection in greater white-fronted geese in their winter staging areas

A unified evolutionary framework for understanding parasite infection and host migratory behaviour

Animal migration impacts organismal health and parasite transmission: migrants are simultaneously exposed to parasites and able to reduce infection for both individuals and populations. However, these dynamics are difficult to study; empirical studies reveal disparate results while existing theory makes assumptions that simplify natural complexity. Here, we systematically review empirical studies of migration and infection across taxa, highlighting key gaps in our understanding. Next, we develop a unified evolutionary framework incorporating different selective pressures of parasite-migration interactions while accounting for ecological complexity that goes beyond previous theory. Our framework generates diverse migration-infection patterns paralleling those seen in empirical systems, including partial and differential migration. Finally, we generate predictions about which mechanisms dominate which empirical systems to guide future studies. Our framework provides an overarching understanding of selective pressures shaping migration patterns in the context of animal health and disease, which is critical for predicting how environmental change may threaten migration.

Habitat loss exacerbates pathogen spread: An Agent-based model of avian influenza infection in migratory waterfowl

Habitat availability determines the distribution of migratory waterfowl along their flyway, which further influences the transmission and spatial spread of avian influenza viruses (AIVs). The extensive habitat loss in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway (EAAF) may have potentially altered the virus spread and transmission, but those consequences are rarely studied. We constructed 6 fall migration networks that differed in their level of habitat loss, wherein an increase in habitat loss resulted in smaller networks with fewer sites and links. We integrated an agent-based model and a susceptible-infected-recovered model to simulate waterfowl migration and AIV transmission. We found that extensive habitat loss in the EAAF can 1) relocate the outbreaks northwards, responding to the distribution changes of wintering waterfowl geese, 2) increase the outbreak risk in remaining sites due to larger goose congregations, and 3) facilitate AIV transmission in the migratory population. In addition, our modeling output was in line with the predictions from the concept of "migratory escape", i.e., the migration allows the geese to "escape" from the location where infection risk is high, affecting the pattern of infection prevalence in the waterfowl population. Our modeling shed light on the potential consequences of habitat loss in spreading and transmitting AIV at the flyway scale and suggested the driving mechanisms behind these effects, indicating the importance of conservation in changing spatial and temporal patterns of AIV outbreaks.

Movement can mediate temporal mismatches between resource availability and biological events in host-pathogen interactions

Global change is shifting the timing of biological events, leading to temporal mismatches between biological events and resource availability. These temporal mismatches can threaten species' populations. Importantly, temporal mismatches not only exert strong pressures on the population dynamics of the focal species, but can also lead to substantial changes in pairwise species interactions such as host-pathogen systems. We adapted an established individual-based model of host-pathogen dynamics. The model describes a viral agent in a social host, while accounting for the host's explicit movement decisions. We aimed to investigate how temporal mismatches between seasonal resource availability and host life-history events affect host-pathogen coexistence, that is, disease persistence. Seasonal resource fluctuations only increased coexistence probability when in synchrony with the hosts' biological events. However, a temporal mismatch reduced host-pathogen coexistence, but only marginally. In tandem with an increasing temporal mismatch, our model showed a shift in the spatial distribution of infected hosts. It shifted from an even distribution under synchronous conditions toward the formation of disease hotspots, when host life history and resource availability mismatched completely. The spatial restriction of infected hosts to small hotspots in the landscape initially suggested a lower coexistence probability due to the critical loss of susceptible host individuals within those hotspots. However, the surrounding landscape facilitated demographic rescue through habitat-dependent movement. Our work demonstrates that the negative effects of temporal mismatches between host resource availability and host life history on host-pathogen coexistence can be reduced through the formation of temporary disease hotspots and host movement decisions, with implications for disease management under disturbances and global change.

Influenza A virus surveillance, infection and antibody persistence in snow geese (Anser caerulescens)

Some snow geese (Anser caerulescens) migrate between Eurasia and North America and exhibit high seroprevalence for influenza A viruses (IAVs). Hence, these birds might be expected to play a role in intercontinental dispersal of IAVs. Our objective in this manuscript was to characterize basic incidence and infection characteristics for snow geese to assess whether these birds are likely to significantly contribute to circulation of IAVs. Thus, we 1) estimated snow goose infection prevalence by summarizing > 5,000 snow goose surveillance records, 2) experimentally infected snow geese with a low pathogenic IAV (H4N6) to assess susceptibility and infection dynamics and 3) characterized long-term antibody kinetics. Infection prevalence based on surveillance data for snow geese was 7.88%, higher than the infection rates found in other common North American goose species. In the experimental infection study, only 4 of 7 snow geese shed viral RNA. Shedding in infected birds peaked at moderate levels (mean peak 10^2.62 EID₅₀ equivalents/mL) and was exclusively associated with the oral cavity. Serological testing across a year post-exposure showed all inoculated birds seroconverted regardless of detectable shedding. Antibody levels peaked at 10 days post-exposure and then waned to undetectable levels by 6 months. In sum, while broad-scale surveillance results showed comparatively high infection prevalence, the experimental infection study showed only moderate susceptibility and shedding. Consequently, additional work is needed to assess whether snow geese might exhibit higher levels of susceptibility and shedding rates when exposed to other IAV strains.

Comparative micro-epidemiology of pathogenic avian influenza virus outbreaks in a wild bird population

Understanding the epidemiological dynamics of highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIV) in wild birds is crucial for guiding effective surveillance and control measures. The spread of H5 HPAIV has been well characterized over large geographical and temporal scales. However, information about the detailed dynamics and demographics of individual outbreaks in wild birds is rare and important epidemiological parameters remain unknown. We present data from a wild population of long-lived birds (mute swans; Cygnus olor) that has experienced three outbreaks of related H5 HPAIVs in the past decade, specifically, H5N1 (2007), H5N8 (2016) and H5N6 (2017). Detailed demographic data were available and intense sampling was conducted before and after the outbreaks; hence the population is unusually suitable for exploring the natural epidemiology, evolution and ecology of HPAIV in wild birds. We show that key epidemiological features remain remarkably consistent across multiple outbreaks, including the timing of virus incursion and outbreak duration, and the presence of a strong age-structure in morbidity that likely arises from an equivalent age-structure in immunological responses. The predictability of these features across a series of outbreaks in a complex natural population is striking and contributes to our understanding of HPAIV in wild birds.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: approaches and important themes’. This issue is linked with the subsequent theme issue ‘Modelling infectious disease outbreaks in humans, animals and plants: epidemic forecasting and control’.

Experimental Malaria Infection Affects Songbirds' Nocturnal Migratory Activity

Migratory animals encounter multiple parasite communities, raising concerns that migration may aid transport of infectious disease. How migration affects disease spread depends fundamentally on how disease affects migration, specifically whether infection alters individuals' migratory physiology and behavior. We inoculated white-throated sparrows (Zonotrichia albicollis) with avian malaria parasites (Plasmodium sp.), monitored parasite loads for 5 wk as the birds reached spring migratory condition, and compared nocturnal migratory restlessness (Zugunruhe), body composition (fat, lean, and whole-body mass), and hematocrit among experimentally infected birds, sham-inoculated birds, and birds that were exposed to parasites but resisted infection. Migratory restlessness increased over time in the study, but the rate of change varied between sham (control) birds, infected birds, and birds that resisted infection. We were unable to detect any effects of malaria exposure on body condition. Our findings suggest that encountering parasites affects migratory activity, regardless of whether infection occurs or is resisted.

Circulation of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in wild birds and poultry in the Netherlands, 2006-2016

In this study, we explore the circulation of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) viruses in wild birds and poultry in the Netherlands. Surveillance data collected between 2006 and 2016 was used to evaluate subtype diversity, spatiotemporal distribution and genetic relationships between wild bird and poultry viruses. We observed close species-dependent associations among hemagglutinin and neuraminidase subtypes. Not all subtypes detected in wild birds were found in poultry, suggesting transmission to poultry is selective and likely depends on viral factors that determine host range restriction. Subtypes commonly detected in poultry were in wild birds most frequently detected in mallards and geese. Different temporal patterns in virus prevalence were observed between wild bird species. Virus detections in domestic ducks coincided with the prevalence peak in wild ducks, whereas virus detections in other poultry types were made throughout the year. Genetic analysis of the surface genes demonstrated that most poultry viruses were related to locally circulating wild bird viruses, but no direct spatiotemporal link was observed. Results indicate prolonged undetected virus circulation and frequent reassortment events with local and newly introduced viruses within the wild bird population. Increased knowledge on LPAI virus circulation can be used to improve surveillance strategies.

Emperor geese (Anser canagicus) are exposed to a diversity of influenza A viruses, are infected during the non-breeding period and contribute to intercontinental viral dispersal

Emperor geese (Anser canagicus) are endemic to coastal areas within Beringia and have previously been found to have antibodies to or to be infected with influenza A viruses (IAVs) in Alaska. In this study, we use virological, serological and tracking data to further elucidate the role of emperor geese in the ecology of IAVs in Beringia during the non-breeding period. Specifically, we assess evidence for: (a) active IAV infection during spring staging, autumn staging and wintering periods; (b) infection with novel Eurasian-origin or interhemispheric reassortant viruses; (c) contemporary movement of geese between East Asia and North America; (d) previous exposure to viruses of 14 haemagglutinin subtypes, including Eurasian lineage highly pathogenic (HP) H5 IAVs; and (e) subtype-specific antibody seroconversion and seroreversion. Emperor geese were found to shed IAVs, including interhemispheric reassortant viruses, throughout the non-breeding period; migrate between Alaska and the Russian Far East prior to and following remigial moult; have antibodies reactive to a diversity of IAVs including, in a few instances, Eurasian lineage HP H5 IAVs; and exhibit relatively broad and stable patterns of population immunity among breeding females. Results of this study suggest that emperor geese may play an important role in the maintenance and dispersal of IAVs within Beringia during the non-breeding period and provide information that may be used to further optimize surveillance activities focused on the early detection of Eurasian-origin IAVs in North America.

Long-term avian influenza virus epidemiology in a small Spanish wetland ecosystem is driven by the breeding Anseriformes community

During 2007-2009 and 2012-2014, avian influenza virus (AIV) was studied in a wild avian community of a northern Spanish wetland using non-invasive sampling methods and host identification by COI barcoding. The aim of this longitudinal study was to evaluate AIV dynamics in a natural wetland ecosystem, taking into account both virological aspects and ecological traits of hosts. Global AIV prevalence decreased significantly during the second sampling period (0.3%) compared to the first (6.6%). Circulating subtype distributions were also different between periods, with a noteworthy H5 and H7 subtype richness during the first sampling period. Mallard Anas platyrhynchos was identified as the main AIV host, although not all positive samples could be ascribed to the host. We modelled AIV prevalence with regard to the avian host community composition and meteorological data from the wetland. Statistical analysis revealed seasonal differences in AIV detection, with higher prevalence during the breeding season compared to other phenological events. The model also shows that the lower AIV prevalence during the second study period was associated with a significant reduction of breeding Anseriformes in the wetland, revealing a long-term fluctuation of AIV prevalence driven by the breeding Anseriformes community. This longitudinal study on AIV epidemiology in a natural ecosystem reveals that although prevalence follows seasonal and annual patterns, long-term prevalence fluctuation is linked to the breeding community composition and size. These results are relevant to understanding the influence of host ecology on pathogen transmission for preventing and managing influenza emergence.

Where do all the subtypes go? Temporal dynamics of H8-H12 influenza A viruses in waterfowl

Influenza A virus (IAV) is ubiquitous in waterfowl. In the northern hemisphere IAV prevalence is highest during the autumn and coincides with a peak in viral subtype diversity. Although haemagglutinin subtypes H1-H12 are associated with waterfowl hosts, subtypes H8-H12 are detected very infrequently. To better understand the role of waterfowl in the maintenance of these rare subtypes, we sequenced H8-H12 viruses isolated from Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) from 2002 to 2009. These rare viruses exhibited varying ecological and phylodynamic features. The Eurasian clades of H8 and H12 phylogenies were dominated by waterfowl sequences; mostly viruses sequenced in this study. H11, once believed to be a subtype that infected charadriiformes (shorebirds), exhibited patterns more typical of common virus subtypes. Finally, subtypes H9 and H10, which have maintained lineages in poultry, showed markedly different patterns: H10 was associated with all possible NA subtypes and this drove HA lineage diversity within years. Rare viruses belonging to subtypes H8-H12 were highly reassorted, indicating that these rare subtypes are part of the broader IAV pool. Our results suggest that waterfowl play a role in the maintenance of these rare subtypes, but we recommend additional sampling of non-traditional hosts to better understand the reservoirs of these rare viruses.

Exposing migratory sparrows to Plasmodium suggests costs of resistance, not necessarily of infection itself

Migratory birds move through multiple habitats and encounter a diverse suite of parasites. This raises concern over migrants' role in transporting infectious disease between breeding and wintering grounds, and along migratory flyways. Trade-offs between flight and immune defenses could interfere with infected individuals' migratory timing and success, potentially affecting infection dynamics. However, experimental evidence that parasitic infection affects migratory preparation or timing remains scant. We hypothesized that birds encountering hematozoan parasites shortly before migration incur physical costs (reduced body condition) and behavioral costs (delayed migration), due to the infection itself and/or to the demands of mounting an immune response. We experimentally inoculated song sparrows (Melospiza melodia) with Plasmodium shortly before fall migration. We monitored infection and body composition for 2 weeks after inoculation, and used radiotelemetry to track timing of migratory departure for another 7 weeks after release. Inoculated individuals that resisted infection had lower lean mass 12 days post exposure, relative to controls and infected individuals. This suggests trade-offs between body composition and immune defenses that might reduce migration success of resistant individuals. Despite group differences in body composition prior to release, we did not detect significant differences in timing of migration departure several weeks later. Thus, malarial infection did not appear to incur detectable costs to body composition or to migratory timing, at least when exposure occurs several weeks before migration. This study is novel considering not only the costs of infection, but also the costs of resisting infection, in an experimental context.

Antibody responses to avian influenza viruses in wild birds broaden with age

For viruses such as avian influenza, immunity within a host population can drive the emergence of new strains by selecting for viruses with novel antigens that avoid immune recognition. The accumulation of acquired immunity with age is hypothesized to affect how influenza viruses emerge and spread in species of different lifespans. Despite its importance for understanding the behaviour of avian influenza viruses, little is known about age-related accumulation of immunity in the virus's primary reservoir, wild birds. To address this, we studied the age structure of immune responses to avian influenza virus in a wild swan population (Cygnus olor), before and after the population experienced an outbreak of highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza in 2008. We performed haemagglutination inhibition assays on sampled sera for five avian influenza strains and show that breadth of response accumulates with age. The observed age-related distribution of antibody responses to avian influenza strains may explain the age-dependent mortality observed during the highly pathogenic H5N1 outbreak. Age structures and species lifespan are probably important determinants of viral epidemiology and virulence in birds.

No evidence that migratory geese disperse avian influenza viruses from breeding to wintering ground

Low pathogenic avian influenza virus can mutate to a highly pathogenic strain that causes severe clinical signs in birds and humans. Migratory waterfowl, especially ducks, are considered the main hosts of low pathogenic avian influenza virus, but the role of geese in dispersing the virus over long-distances is still unclear. We collected throat and cloaca samples from three goose species, Bean goose (Anser fabalis), Barnacle goose (Branta leucopsis) and Greater white-fronted goose (Anser albifrons), from their breeding grounds, spring stopover sites, and wintering grounds. We tested if the geese were infected with low pathogenic avian influenza virus outside of their wintering grounds, and analysed the spatial and temporal patterns of infection prevalence on their wintering grounds. Our results show that geese were not infected before their arrival on wintering grounds. Barnacle geese and Greater white-fronted geese had low prevalence of infection just after their arrival on wintering grounds in the Netherlands, but the prevalence increased in successive months, and peaked after December. This suggests that migratory geese are exposed to the virus after their arrival on wintering grounds, indicating that migratory geese might not disperse low pathogenic avian influenza virus during autumn migration.

Impact of body condition on influenza A virus infection dynamics in mallards following a secondary exposure

Migratory waterfowl are often viewed as vehicles for the global spread of influenza A viruses (IAVs), with mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) implicated as particularly important reservoir hosts. The physical demands and energetic costs of migration have been shown to influence birds' body condition; poorer body condition may suppress immune function and affect the course of IAV infection. Our study evaluated the impact of body condition on immune function and viral shedding dynamics in mallards naturally exposed to an H9 IAV, and then secondarily exposed to an H4N6 IAV. Mallards were divided into three treatment groups of 10 birds per group, with each bird's body condition manipulated as a function of body weight by restricting food availability to achieve either a -10%, -20%, or control body weight class. We found that mallards exhibit moderate heterosubtypic immunity against an H4N6 IAV infection after an infection from an H9 IAV, and that body condition did not have an impact on shedding dynamics in response to a secondary exposure. Furthermore, body condition did not affect aspects of the innate and adaptive immune system, including the acute phase protein haptoglobin, heterophil/lymphocyte ratios, and antibody production. Contrary to recently proposed hypotheses and some experimental evidence, our data do not support relationships between body condition, infection and immunocompetence following a second exposure to IAV in mallards. Consequently, while annual migration may be a driver in the maintenance and spread of IAVs, the energetic demands of migration may not affect susceptibility in mallards.

Potential disease transmission from wild geese and swans to livestock, poultry and humans: a review of the scientific literature from a One Health perspective

There are more herbivorous waterfowl (swans and geese) close to humans, livestock and poultry than ever before. This creates widespread conflict with agriculture and other human interests, but also debate about the role of swans and geese as potential vectors of disease of relevance for human and animal health. Using a One Health perspective, we provide the first comprehensive review of the scientific literature about the most relevant viral, bacterial, and unicellular pathogens occurring in wild geese and swans. Research thus far suggests that these birds may play a role in transmission of avian influenza virus, Salmonella, Campylobacter, and antibiotic resistance. On the other hand, at present there is no evidence that geese and swans play a role in transmission of Newcastle disease, duck plague, West Nile virus, Vibrio, Yersinia, Clostridium, Chlamydophila, and Borrelia. Finally, based on present knowledge it is not possible to say if geese and swans play a role in transmission of Escherichia coli, Pasteurella, Helicobacter, Brachyspira, Cryptosporidium, Giardia, and Microsporidia. This is largely due to changes in classification and taxonomy, rapid development of identification methods and lack of knowledge about host specificity. Previous research tends to overrate the role of geese and swans as disease vectors; we do not find any evidence that they are significant transmitters to humans or livestock of any of the pathogens considered in this review. Nevertheless, it is wise to keep poultry and livestock separated from small volume waters used by many wild waterfowl, but there is no need to discourage livestock grazing in nature reserves or pastures where geese and swans are present. Under some circumstances it is warranted to discourage swans and geese from using wastewater ponds, drinking water reservoirs, and public beaches. Intensified screening of swans and geese for AIV, West Nile virus and anatid herpesvirus is warranted.

Of Ducks and Men: Ecology and Evolution of a Zoonotic Pathogen in a Wild Reservoir Host

A hallmark of disease is that most pathogens are able to infect more than one host species. However, for most pathogens, we still have a limited understanding of how this affects epidemiology, persistence and virulence of infections—including several zoonotic pathogens that reside in wild animal reservoirs and spillover into humans. In this chapter, we review the current knowledge of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) as host for pathogens. This species is widely distributed, often occupying habitats close to humans and livestock, and is an important game bird species and the ancestor to domestic ducks—thereby being an excellent model species to highlight aspects of the wildlife, domestic animal interface and the relevance for human health. We discuss mallard as host for a range of pathogens but focus more in depth of it as a reservoir host for influenza A virus (IAV). Over the last decades, IAV research has surged, prompted in part to the genesis and spread of highly pathogenic virus variants that have been devastating to domestic poultry and caused a number of human spillover infections. The aim of this chapter is to synthesise and review the intricate interactions of virus, host and environmental factors governing IAV epidemiology and evolution.

Hampered performance of migratory swans: intra- and inter-seasonal effects of avian influenza virus

The extent to which animal migrations shape parasite transmission networks is critically dependent on a migrant's ability to tolerate infection and migrate successfully. Yet, sub-lethal effects of parasites can be intensified through periods of increased physiological stress. Long-distance migrants may, therefore, be especially susceptible to negative effects of parasitic infection. Although a handful of studies have investigated the short-term, transmission-relevant behaviors of wild birds infected with low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIV), the ecological consequences of LPAIV for the hosts themselves remain largely unknown. Here, we assessed the potential effects of naturally-acquired LPAIV infections in Bewick's swans, a long-distance migratory species that experiences relatively low incidence of LPAIV infection during early winter. We monitored both foraging and movement behavior in the winter of infection, as well as subsequent breeding behavior and inter-annual resighting probability over 3 years. Incorporating data on infection history we hypothesized that any effects would be most apparent in naïve individuals experiencing their first LPAIV infection. Indeed, significant effects of infection were only seen in birds that were infected but lacked antibodies indicative of prior infection. Swans that were infected but had survived a previous infection were indistinguishable from uninfected birds in each of the ecological performance metrics. Despite showing reduced foraging rates, individuals in the naïve-infected category had similar accumulated body stores to re-infected and uninfected individuals prior to departure on spring migration, possibly as a result of having higher scaled mass at the time of infection. And yet individuals in the naïve-infected category were unlikely to be resighted 1 year after infection, with 6 out of 7 individuals that never resighted again compared to 20 out of 63 uninfected individuals and 5 out of 12 individuals in the re-infected category. Collectively, our findings indicate that acute and superficially harmless infection with LPAIV may have indirect effects on individual performance and recruitment in migratory Bewick's swans. Our results also highlight the potential for infection history to play an important role in shaping ecological constraints throughout the annual cycle.

Transmission of influenza reflects seasonality of wild birds across the annual cycle

Influenza A Viruses (IAV) in nature must overcome shifting transmission barriers caused by the mobility of their primary host, migratory wild birds, that change throughout the annual cycle. Using a phylogenetic network of viral sequences from North American wild birds (2008-2011) we demonstrate a shift from intraspecific to interspecific transmission that along with reassortment, allows IAV to achieve viral flow across successive seasons from summer to winter. Our study supports amplification of IAV during summer breeding seeded by overwintering virus persisting locally and virus introduced from a wide range of latitudes. As birds migrate from breeding sites to lower latitudes, they become involved in transmission networks with greater connectivity to other bird species, with interspecies transmission of reassortant viruses peaking during the winter. We propose that switching transmission dynamics may be a critical strategy for pathogens that infect mobile hosts inhabiting regions with strong seasonality.

Does influenza A virus infection affect movement behaviour during stopover in its wild reservoir host?

The last decade has seen a surge in research on avian influenza A viruses (IAVs), in part fuelled by the emergence, spread and potential zoonotic importance of highly pathogenic virus subtypes. The mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) is the most numerous and widespread dabbling duck in the world, and one of the most important natural hosts for studying IAV transmission dynamics. In order to predict the likelihood of IAV transmission between individual ducks and to other hosts, as well as between geographical regions, it is important to understand how IAV infection affects the host. In this study, we analysed the movements of 40 mallards equipped with GPS transmitters and three-dimensional accelerometers, of which 20 were naturally infected with low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV), at a major stopover site in the Northwest European flyway. Movements differed substantially between day and night, as well as between mallards returning to the capture site and those feeding in natural habitats. However, movement patterns did not differ between LPAIV infected and uninfected birds. Hence, LPAIV infection probably does not affect mallard movements during stopover, with high possibility of virus spread along the migration route as a consequence.

Do Healthy Monarchs Migrate Farther? Tracking Natal Origins of Parasitized vs. Uninfected Monarch Butterflies Overwintering in Mexico

Long-distance migration can lower parasite prevalence if strenuous journeys remove infected animals from wild populations. We examined wild monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) to investigate the potential costs of the protozoan Ophryocystis elektroscirrha on migratory success. We collected monarchs from two wintering sites in central Mexico to compare infection status with hydrogen isotope (δ²H) measurements as an indicator of latitude of origin at the start of fall migration. On average, uninfected monarchs had lower δ²H values than parasitized butterflies, indicating that uninfected butterflies originated from more northerly latitudes and travelled farther distances to reach Mexico. Within the infected class, monarchs with higher quantitative spore loads originated from more southerly latitudes, indicating that heavily infected monarchs originating from farther north are less likely to reach Mexico. We ruled out the alternative explanation that lower latitudes give rise to more infected monarchs prior to the onset of migration using citizen science data to examine regional differences in parasite prevalence during the summer breeding season. We also found a positive association between monarch wing area and estimated distance flown. Collectively, these results emphasize that seasonal migrations can help lower infection levels in wild animal populations. Our findings, combined with recent declines in the numbers of migratory monarchs wintering in Mexico and observations of sedentary (winter breeding) monarch populations in the southern U.S., suggest that shifts from migratory to sedentary behavior will likely lead to greater infection prevalence for North American monarchs.

Minor differences in body condition and immune status between avian influenza virus-infected and noninfected mallards: a sign of coevolution?

Wildlife pathogens can alter host fitness. Low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) infection is thought to have negligible impacts on wild birds; however, effects of infection in free-living birds are largely unstudied. We investigated the extent to which LPAIV infection and shedding were associated with body condition and immune status in free-living mallards (Anas platyrhynchos), a partially migratory key LPAIV host species. We sampled mallards throughout the species' annual autumn LPAIV infection peak, and we classified individuals according to age, sex, and migratory strategy (based on stable hydrogen isotope analysis) when analyzing data on body mass and five indices of immune status. Body mass was similar for LPAIV-infected and noninfected birds. The degree of virus shedding from the cloaca and oropharynx was not associated with body mass. LPAIV infection and shedding were not associated with natural antibody (NAbs) and complement titers (first lines of defense against infections), concentrations of the acute phase protein haptoglobin (Hp), ratios of heterophils to lymphocytes (H:L ratio), and avian influenza virus (AIV)-specific antibody concentrations. NAbs titers were higher in LPAIV-infected males and local (i.e., short distance) migrants than in infected females and distant (i.e., long distance) migrants. Hp concentrations were higher in LPAIV-infected juveniles and females compared to infected adults and males. NAbs, complement, and Hp levels were lower in LPAIV-infected mallards in early autumn. Our study demonstrates weak associations between infection with and shedding of LPAIV and the body condition and immune status of free-living mallards. These results may support the role of mallards as asymptomatic carriers of LPAIV and raise questions about possible coevolution between virus and host.

Adaptive evolution and environmental durability jointly structure phylodynamic patterns in avian influenza viruses

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have been pivotal to the origination of human pandemic strains. Despite their scientific and public health significance, however, there remains much to be understood about the ecology and evolution of AIVs in wild birds, where major pools of genetic diversity are generated and maintained. Here, we present comparative phylodynamic analyses of human and AIVs in North America, demonstrating (i) significantly higher standing genetic diversity and (ii) phylogenetic trees with a weaker signature of immune escape in AIVs than in human viruses. To explain these differences, we performed statistical analyses to quantify the relative contribution of several potential explanations. We found that HA genetic diversity in avian viruses is determined by a combination of factors, predominantly subtype-specific differences in host immune selective pressure and the ecology of transmission (in particular, the durability of subtypes in aquatic environments). Extending this analysis using a computational model demonstrated that virus durability may lead to long-term, indirect chains of transmission that, when coupled with a short host lifespan, can generate and maintain the observed high levels of genetic diversity. Further evidence in support of this novel finding was found by demonstrating an association between subtype-specific environmental durability and predicted phylogenetic signatures: genetic diversity, variation in phylogenetic tree branch lengths, and tree height. The conclusion that environmental transmission plays an important role in the evolutionary biology of avian influenza viruses-a manifestation of the "storage effect"-highlights the potentially unpredictable impact of wildlife reservoirs for future human pandemics and the need for improved understanding of the natural ecology of these viruses.

A 4-year study of avian influenza virus prevalence and subtype diversity in ducks of Newfoundland, Canada

The island of Newfoundland, Canada, is at the eastern edge of North America and has migratory bird connections with the continental mainland as well as across the North Atlantic Ocean. Here, we report a 4-year avian influenza virus (AIV) epidemiological study in ducks in the St. John's region of Newfoundland. The overall prevalence of AIV detection in ducks during this study was 7.2%, with American Black Ducks contributing the vast majority of the collected samples and the AIV positives. The juvenile ducks showed a significantly higher AIV detection rate (10.6%) compared with adults (3.4%). Seasonally, AIV prevalence rates were higher in the autumn (8.4%), but positives were still detected in the winter (4.6%). Preliminary serology tests showed a high incidence of previous AIV infection (20/38, 52.6%). A total of 43 viruses were characterized for their HA-NA or HA subtypes, which revealed a large diversity of AIV subtypes and little recurrence of subtypes from year to year. Investigation of the movement patterns of ducks in this region showed that it is a largely non-migratory duck population, which may contribute to the observed pattern of high AIV subtype turnover. Phylogenetic analysis of 4 H1N1 and one H5N4 AIVs showed these viruses were highly similar to other low pathogenic AIV sequences from waterfowl in North America and assigned all gene segments into American-avian clades. Notably, the H1N1 viruses, which were identified in consecutive years, possessed homologous genomes. Such detection of homologous AIV genomes across years is rare, but indicates the role of the environmental reservoir in viral perpetuation.

Is low pathogenic avian influenza virus virulent for wild waterbirds?

Although low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) is traditionally considered to have adapted to its wild waterbird host to become avirulent, recent studies have suggested that LPAIV infection might after all have clinical effects. Therefore, I reviewed the literature on LPAIV infections in wild waterbirds. The virulence of LPAIV was assessed in 17 studies on experimental infections and nine studies on natural infections. Reported evidence for virulence were reductions in return rate, feeding rate, body weight, long-range movement and reproductive success, as well as pathological changes in infected organs. However, major caveats in studies of experimental infections were unnatural route of LPAIV inoculation, animal husbandry not simulating natural stressors and low sensitivity of clinical assessment. Major caveats in studies of natural infections were incomplete measurement of LPAIV infection burden, quasi-experimental design and potential misclassification of birds. After taking these caveats into account, the only remaining evidence for virulence was that presence and intensity of LPAIV infection were negatively correlated with body weight. Based on this correlation, together with the demonstrated LPAIV tropism for the intestinal tract, I hypothesize that LPAIV reduces digestive tract function, and suggest how future studies could be directed to test this hypothesis.

Evidence that life history characteristics of wild birds influence infection and exposure to influenza A viruses

We report on life history characteristics, temporal, and age-related effects influencing the frequency of occurrence of avian influenza (AI) viruses in four species of migratory geese breeding on the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta, Alaska. Emperor geese (Chen canagica), cackling geese (Branta hutchinsii), greater white-fronted geese (Anser albifrons), and black brant (Branta bernicla), were all tested for active infection of AI viruses upon arrival in early May, during nesting in June, and while molting in July and August, 2006–2010 (n = 14,323). Additionally, prior exposure to AI viruses was assessed via prevalence of antibodies from sera samples collected during late summer in 2009 and 2010. Results suggest that geese are uncommonly infected by low pathogenic AI viruses while in Alaska. The percent of birds actively shedding AI viruses varied annually, and was highest in 2006 and 2010 (1–3%) and lowest in 2007, 2008, and 2009 (<0.70%). Contrary to findings in ducks, the highest incidence of infected birds was in late spring when birds first arrived from staging and wintering areas. Despite low prevalence, most geese were previously exposed to AI viruses, as indicated by high levels of seroprevalence during late summer (47%–96% across species; n = 541). Seroprevalence was >95% for emperor geese, a species that spends part of its life cycle in Asia and is endemic to Alaska and the Bering Sea region, compared to 40–60% for the other three species, whose entire life cycles are within the western hemisphere. Birds <45 days of age showed little past exposure to AI viruses, although antibodies were detected in samples from 5-week old birds in 2009. Seroprevalence of known age black brant revealed that no birds <4 years old had seroconverted, compared to 49% of birds ≥4 years of age.

Annual survival of ruddy turnstones is not affected by natural infection with low pathogenicity avian influenza viruses

The population of ruddy turnstones (Arenaria interpres morinella) that migrates through Delaware Bay has undergone severe declines in recent years, attributable to reduced availability of horseshoe crab (Limulus polyphemus) eggs at this critical spring migration stopover site. Concurrently, this population has experienced annual low pathogenicity avian influenza virus (AIV) epidemics at this same site. Using a prospective cohort study design with birds individually flagged during May-June 2006-2008, we evaluated resighting rates (a proxy for annual survival) between AIV-infected and uninfected birds at 1 yr after capture, testing, and measurement. Overall resighting rate was 46%, which varied by year and increased with relative mass of the bird when captured. Resighting rates were not different between AIV-infected and uninfected birds in any period. In multivariate analyses, infection status was also unrelated to resighting rate after controlling for year, day, state, sex, body size, mass index, or whether the bird was blood-sampled. Thus, apparent annual survival in ruddy turnstones was not reduced by AIV infection at this migratory stopover. However, it is unknown whether intestinal AIV infection might cause subtle reductions in weight gain which could negatively influence reproduction.

Reassortant influenza A viruses in wild duck populations: effects on viral shedding and persistence in water

Wild ducks of the genus Anas represent the natural hosts for a large genetic diversity of influenza A viruses. In these hosts, co-infections with different virus genotypes are frequent and result in high rates of genetic reassortment. Recent genomic data have provided information regarding the pattern and frequency of these reassortant viruses in duck populations; however, potential consequences on viral shedding and maintenance in the environment have not been investigated. On the basis of full-genome sequencing, we identified five virus genotypes, in a wild duck population in northwestern Minnesota (USA), that naturally arose from genetic reassortments. We investigated the effects of influenza A virus genotype on the viral shedding pattern in Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) and the duration of infectivity in water, under different temperature regimens. Overall, we found that variation in the viral genome composition of these isolates had limited effects on duration, extent and pattern of viral shedding, as well as on the reduction of infectivity in water over time. These results support that, in wild ducks, functionally equivalent gene segments could be maintained in virus populations with no fitness costs when genetic reassortments occur.

Disease dynamics and bird migration--linking mallards Anas platyrhynchos and subtype diversity of the influenza A virus in time and space

The mallard Anas platyrhynchos is a reservoir species for influenza A virus in the northern hemisphere, with particularly high prevalence rates prior to as well as during its prolonged autumn migration. It has been proposed that the virus is brought from the breeding grounds and transmitted to conspecifics during subsequent staging during migration, and so a better understanding of the natal origin of staging ducks is vital to deciphering the dynamics of viral movement pathways. Ottenby is an important stopover site in southeast Sweden almost halfway downstream in the major Northwest European flyway, and is used by millions of waterfowl each year. Here, mallards were captured and sampled for influenza A virus infection, and positive samples were subtyped in order to study possible links to the natal area, which were determined by a novel approach combining banding recovery data and isotopic measurements (δ²H) of feathers grown on breeding grounds. Geographic assignments showed that the core natal areas of studied mallards were in Estonia, southern and central Finland, and northwestern Russia. This study demonstrates a clear temporal succession of latitudes of natal origin during the course of autumn migration. We also demonstrate a corresponding and concomitant shift in virus subtypes. Acknowledging that these two different patterns were based in part upon different data, a likely interpretation worth further testing is that the early arriving birds with more proximate origins have different influenza A subtypes than the more distantly originating late autumn birds. If true, this knowledge would allow novel insight into the origins and transmission of the influenza A virus among migratory hosts previously unavailable through conventional approaches.

Genetic structure of Pacific Flyway avian influenza viruses is shaped by geographic location, host species, and sampling period

The eight gene segments of avian influenza virus (AIV) reassort frequently and rapidly to generate novel genotypes and subtypes that are transmissible to a broad range of hosts. There is evidence that AIV can have a restricted host range and can segregate in space and time. Host-virus relationships at the species, geographic, and spatial scales have not been fully defined for AIV populations of the Pacific Flyway, particularly among the diverse waterfowl that occupy the Flyway in Alaska and California. Using the sequence analysis program Bayesian Tip-association Significance testing (BaTS) created for analysis of phylogeny-trait associations, we determined whether the genetic structure of Pacific Flyway AIVs sampled between 2006 and 2008 was influenced by the host species, geographic location of virus collection, and time of sampling. In posterior sets of trees, genetically similar viruses clustered by host species for thick-billed murres and glaucous gulls (order Charadriiformes), and for northern shovelers, northern pintails, and mallards (order Anseriformes). AIVs from Alaska and California were strongly spatially structured, clustering separately by region across all segments. The timing of sampling influenced the genetic structure of California AIV gene segments, possibly reflecting waves of host species movement into wintering areas. The strength of phylogeny-trait association varied by virus segment and by trait of interest, which we hypothesize is related to the frequent genetic reassortment and interspecies transmission in waterfowl.

Understanding the ecological drivers of avian influenza virus infection in wildfowl: a continental-scale study across Africa

Despite considerable effort for surveillance of wild birds for avian influenza viruses (AIVs), empirical investigations of ecological drivers of AIV prevalence in wild birds are still scarce. Here we used a continental-scale dataset, collected in tropical wetlands of 15 African countries, to test the relative roles of a range of ecological factors on patterns of AIV prevalence in wildfowl. Seasonal and geographical variations in prevalence were positively related to the local density of the wildfowl community and to the wintering period of Eurasian migratory birds in Africa. The predominant influence of wildfowl density with no influence of climatic conditions suggests, in contrast to temperate regions, a predominant role for inter-individual transmission rather than transmission via long-lived virus persisting in the environment. Higher prevalences were found in Anas species than in non-Anas species even when we account for differences in their foraging behaviour (primarily dabbling or not) or their geographical origin (Eurasian or Afro-tropical), suggesting the existence of intrinsic differences between wildfowl taxonomic groups in receptivity to infection. Birds were found infected as often in oropharyngeal as in cloacal samples, but rarely for both types of sample concurrently, indicating that both respiratory and digestive tracts may be important for AIV replication.

The pattern of influenza virus attachment varies among wild bird species

The ability to attach to host cells is one of the main determinants of the host range of influenza A viruses. By using virus histochemistry, we investigate the pattern of virus attachment of both a human and an avian influenza virus in colon and trachea sections from 12 wild bird species. We show that significant variations exist, even between closely related avian species, which suggests that the ability of wild birds to serve as hosts for influenza viruses strongly varies among species. These results will prove valuable to assess the possibilities of interspecies transmission of influenza viruses in natural environments and better understand the ecology of influenza.

Evidence for limited exchange of avian influenza viruses between seaducks and dabbling ducks at Alaska Peninsula coastal lagoons

Avian influenza virus (AIV) prevalence and sequence data were analyzed for Steller's eiders (Polysticta stelleri) to assess the role of this species in transporting virus genes between continents and maintaining a regional viral reservoir with sympatric northern pintails (Anas acuta). AIV prevalence was 0.2% at Izembek Lagoon and 3.9% at Nelson Lagoon for Steller's eiders and 11.2% for northern pintails at Izembek Lagoon. Phylogenetic analysis of 13 AIVs from Steller's eiders revealed that 4.9% of genes were of Eurasian origin. Seven subtypes were detected, including two also observed in northern pintails. No AIV strains were highly similar (> 99%) at all gene segments between species; however, highly similar individual genes were detected. The proportion of highly similar genes was greater within rather than between species. Steller's eiders likely transport AIV genes between continents through long-distance migratory movements. Differences in AIV prevalence, subtype distribution, and the proportion of highly similar genes suggest limited AIV exchange between Steller's eiders and northern pintails at Alaska Peninsula coastal lagoons during autumn.

Surveillance of wild birds for avian influenza virus

TOC Summary: A targeted, hypothesis-based approach and local surveys over broad geographic areas are needed.

Recent demand for increased understanding of avian influenza virus in its natural hosts, together with the development of high-throughput diagnostics, has heralded a new era in wildlife disease surveillance. However, survey design, sampling, and interpretation in the context of host populations still present major challenges. We critically reviewed current surveillance to distill a series of considerations pertinent to avian influenza virus surveillance in wild birds, including consideration of what, when, where, and how many to sample in the context of survey objectives. Recognizing that wildlife disease surveillance is logistically and financially constrained, we discuss pragmatic alternatives for achieving probability-based sampling schemes that capture this host–pathogen system. We recommend hypothesis-driven surveillance through standardized, local surveys that are, in turn, strategically compiled over broad geographic areas. Rethinking the use of existing surveillance infrastructure can thereby greatly enhance our global understanding of avian influenza and other zoonotic diseases.

Animal migration and infectious disease risk

Animal migrations are often spectacular, and migratory species harbor zoonotic pathogens of importance to humans. Animal migrations are expected to enhance the global spread of pathogens and facilitate cross-species transmission. This does happen, but new research has also shown that migration allows hosts to escape from infected habitats, reduces disease levels when infected animals do not migrate successfully, and may lead to the evolution of less-virulent pathogens. Migratory demands can also reduce immune function, with consequences for host susceptibility and mortality. Studies of pathogen dynamics in migratory species and how these will respond to global change are urgently needed to predict future disease risks for wildlife and humans alike.

Environmental transmission scrambles coexistence patterns of avian influenza viruses

Despite the recent accumulation of theoretical and empirical studies on avian influenza viruses (AIVs), the interactions among the diverse pool of strains remain poorly understood. One potential reason is multiple transmission routes. In this paper, we explore the behavior of a two-strain mathematical model of AIV dynamics with lifelong immunity to understand how the combination of direct and environmental transmission (via a persistent viral reservoir) determines strains coexistence and dominance. We find that coexistence requires the magnitude of basic reproductive ratios of the strains to be identical for each transmission route (R(0)(dir) and R(0)(env)) when cross-immunity is assumed to be perfect. Coexistence may be also possible when one strain is only directly transmitted and the contribution by environmental transmission is high. When we relax this assumption, the level of cross-protection does not modify coexistence criteria when strains are mainly environmentally transmitted, in contrast to the case where direct transmission dominates. Finally, when competitive exclusion is observed, the strain with the largest contribution from direct transmission outcompetes the other through competition for viral particle acquisition. Overall, we conclude that environmental transmission can affect the patterns of coexistence predicted by direct transmission models in complex ways.