The projected degradation of subtropical coral assemblages by recurrent thermal stress

Decadal demographic shifts and size-dependent disturbance responses of corals in a subtropical warming hotspot

Long-term demographic studies at biogeographic transition zones can elucidate how body size mediates disturbance responses. Focusing on subtropical reefs in eastern Australia, we examine trends in the size-structure of corals with contrasting life-histories and zoogeographies surrounding the 2016 coral bleaching event (2010-2019) to determine their resilience and recovery capacity. We document demographic shifts, with disproportionate declines in the number of small corals and long-term persistence of larger corals. The incidence of bleaching (Pocillopora, Turbinaria) and partial mortality (Acropora, Pocillopora) increased with coral size, and bleached corals had greater risk of partial mortality. While endemic Pocillopora experienced marked declines, decadal stability of Turbinaria despite bleaching, coupled with abundance increase and bleaching resistance in Acropora indicate remarkable resilience of these taxa in the subtropics. Declines in the number of small corals and variable associations with environmental drivers indicate bottlenecks to recovery mediated by inhibitory effects of thermal extremes for Pocillopora (heat stress) and Acropora (heat and cold stress), and stimulatory effects of chlorophyll-a for Turbinaria. Although our study reveals signs of resilience, it foreshadows the vulnerability of subtropical corals to changing disturbance regimes that include marine heatwaves. Disparity in population dynamics suggest that subtropical reefs are ecologically distinct from tropical coral reefs.

Microbial shifts associated to ENSO-derived thermal anomalies reveal coral acclimation at holobiont level

The coral microbiome conforms a proxy to study effects of changing environmental conditions. However, scarce information exists regarding microbiome dynamics and host acclimation in response to environmental changes associated to global-scale disturbances. We assessed El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-derived thermal anomalies shifts in the bacterial microbiome of Pacifigorgia cairnsi (Gorgoniidae: Octocorallia) from the remote island of Malpelo in the Tropical Eastern Pacific. Malpelo is a hot spot of biodiversity and lacks direct coastal anthropogenic impacts. We evaluated the community composition and predicted functional profiles of the microbiome during 2015, 2017 and 2018, including different phases of ENSO cycle. The bacterial community diversity and composition between the warming and cooling phase were similar, but differed from the neutral phase. Relative abundances of different microbiome core members such as Endozoicomonas and Mycoplasma mainly drove these differences. An acclimated coral holobiont is suggested not just to warm but also to cold stress by embracing similar microbiome shifts and functional redundancy that allow maintaining coral's viability under thermal stress. Responses of the microbiome of unperturbed sea fans such as P. cairnsi in Malpelo could be acting as an extended phenotype facilitating the acclimation at the holobiont level.

Coral recruitment: patterns and processes determining the dynamics of coral populations

Coral recruitment describes the addition of new individuals to populations, and it is one of the most fundamental demographic processes contributing to population size. As many coral reefs around the world have experienced large declines in coral cover and abundance, there has been great interest in understanding the factors causing coral recruitment to vary and the conditions under which it can support community resilience. While progress in these areas is being facilitated by technological and scientific advances, one of the best tools to quantify recruitment remains the humble settlement tile, variants of which have been in use for over a century. Here I review the biology and ecology of coral recruits and the recruitment process, largely as resolved through the use of settlement tiles, by: (i) defining how the terms 'recruit' and 'recruitment' have been used, and explaining why loose terminology has impeded scientific advancement; (ii) describing how coral recruitment is measured and why settlement tiles have value for this purpose; (iii) summarizing previous efforts to review quantitative analyses of coral recruitment; (iv) describing advances from hypothesis-driven studies in determining how refuges, seawater flow, and grazers can modulate coral recruitment; (v) reviewing the biology of small corals (i.e. recruits) to understand better how they respond to environmental conditions; and (vi) updating a quantitative compilation of coral recruitment studies extending from 1974 to present, thus revealing long-term global declines in density of recruits, juxtaposed with apparent resilience to coral bleaching. Finally, I review future directions in the study of coral recruitment, and highlight the need to expand studies to deliver taxonomic resolution, and explain why time series of settlement tile deployments are likely to remain pivotal in quantifying coral recruitment.

Coral assemblages at higher latitudes favor short-term potential over long-term performance

The persistent exposure of coral assemblages to more variable abiotic regimes is assumed to augment their resilience to future climatic variability. Yet, while the determinants of coral population resilience across species remain unknown, we are unable to predict the winners and losers across reef ecosystems exposed to increasingly variable conditions. Using annual surveys of 3171 coral individuals across Australia and Japan (2016-2019), we explore spatial variation across the short- and long-term dynamics of competitive, stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages to evaluate how abiotic variability mediates the structural composition of coral assemblages. We illustrate how, by promoting short-term potential over long-term performance, coral assemblages can reduce their vulnerability to stochastic environments. However, compared to stress-tolerant, and weedy assemblages, competitive coral taxa display a reduced capacity for elevating their short-term potential. Accordingly, future climatic shifts threaten the structural complexity of coral assemblages in variable environments, emulating the degradation expected across global tropical reefs.

Ploidy Variation and Its Implications for Reproduction and Population Dynamics in Two Sympatric Hawaiian Coral Species

Standing genetic variation is a major driver of fitness and resilience and therefore of fundamental importance for threatened species such as stony corals. We analyzed RNA-seq data generated from 132 Montipora capitata and 119 Pocillopora acuta coral colonies collected from Kāne'ohe Bay, O'ahu, Hawai'i. Our goals were to determine the extent of colony genetic variation and to study reproductive strategies in these two sympatric species. Surprisingly, we found that 63% of the P. acuta colonies were triploid, with putative independent origins of the different triploid clades. These corals have spread primarily via asexual reproduction and are descended from a small number of genotypes, whose diploid ancestor invaded the bay. In contrast, all M. capitata colonies are diploid and outbreeding, with almost all colonies genetically distinct. Only two cases of asexual reproduction, likely via fragmentation, were identified in this species. We report two distinct strategies in sympatric coral species that inhabit the largest sheltered body of water in the main Hawaiian Islands. These data highlight divergence in reproductive behavior and genome biology, both of which contribute to coral resilience and persistence.

Corals at the edge of environmental limits: A new conceptual framework to re-define marginal and extreme coral communities

The worldwide decline of coral reefs has renewed interest in coral communities at the edge of environmental limits because they have the potential to serve as resilience hotspots and climate change refugia, and can provide insights into how coral reefs might function in future ocean conditions. These coral communities are often referred to as marginal or extreme but few definitions exist and usage of these terms has therefore been inconsistent. This creates significant challenges for categorising these often poorly studied communities and synthesising data across locations. Furthermore, this impedes our understanding of how coral communities can persist at the edge of their environmental limits and the lessons they provide for future coral reef survival. Here, we propose that marginal and extreme coral communities are related but distinct and provide a novel conceptual framework to redefine them. Specifically, we define coral reef extremeness solely based on environmental conditions (i.e., large deviations from optimal conditions in terms of mean and/or variance) and marginality solely based on ecological criteria (i.e., altered community composition and/or ecosystem functioning). This joint but independent assessment of environmental and ecological criteria is critical to avoid common pitfalls where coral communities existing outside the presumed optimal conditions for coral reef development are automatically considered inferior to coral reefs in more traditional settings. We further evaluate the differential potential of marginal and extreme coral communities to serve as natural laboratories, resilience hotspots and climate change refugia, and discuss strategies for their conservation and management as well as priorities for future research. Our new classification framework provides an important tool to improve our understanding of how corals can persist at the edge of their environmental limits and how we can leverage this knowledge to optimise strategies for coral reef conservation, restoration and management in a rapidly changing ocean.

Net effects of life-history traits explain persistent differences in abundance among similar species

Life-history traits are promising tools to predict species commonness and rarity because they influence a population's fitness in a given environment. Yet, species with similar traits can have vastly different abundances, challenging the prospect of robust trait-based predictions. Using long-term demographic monitoring, we show that coral populations with similar morphological and life-history traits show persistent (decade-long) differences in abundance. Morphological groups predicted species positions along two, well known life-history axes (the fast-slow continuum and size-specific fecundity). However, integral projection models revealed that density-independent population growth (λ) was more variable within morphological groups, and was consistently higher in dominant species relative to rare species. Within-group λ differences projected large abundance differences among similar species in short timeframes, and were generated by small but compounding variation in growth, survival, and reproduction. Our study shows that easily measured morphological traits predict demographic strategies, yet small life-history differences can accumulate into large differences in λ and abundance among similar species. Quantifying the net effects of multiple traits on population dynamics is therefore essential to anticipate species commonness and rarity.

Learning from the past is not enough to survive present and future bleaching threshold temperatures

In the past decade, the frequency of mass coral bleaching events has increased due to seawater temperature anomalies persisting for longer periods. Coral survival from temperature anomalies has been based on how each species in each location responds to stress, which is unique to individual species and may be due to the way stressful experiences accumulate through time in the form of ecological and physiological memory. A deeper understanding of ecological and physiological memory in corals is necessary to understand their survival strategies into the future. Laboratory experiments can help us simulate seawater temperatures experienced by corals in the past and compare their responses to those of the present and future. In this study, we sampled corals with different life history traits from one location perturbed by seawater temperature incursions (variable site) and from a second, relatively undisturbed location (stable site). We sampled across two seasons to observe the responses to bleaching threshold temperatures in the past (1998-29 °C), present (2018-31 °C), and future (2050-33 °C). Corals were healthy at 29 °C and 31 °C, but a fast-growing, temperature-susceptible coral species experienced high mortality at 33 °C compared to a slow-growing, temperature-resistant coral species. Moreover, corals from the variable site and during the spring season fared better under temperature stress. The results of this study provide insight into the possible role of life-history traits on coral's response to seasons and locations in terms of memory to long-term and short-term thermal anomalies and climate change.

Coral-bleaching responses to climate change across biological scales

The global impacts of climate change are evident in every marine ecosystem. On coral reefs, mass coral bleaching and mortality have emerged as ubiquitous responses to ocean warming, yet one of the greatest challenges of this epiphenomenon is linking information across scientific disciplines and spatial and temporal scales. Here we review some of the seminal and recent coral-bleaching discoveries from an ecological, physiological, and molecular perspective. We also evaluate which data and processes can improve predictive models and provide a conceptual framework that integrates measurements across biological scales. Taking an integrative approach across biological and spatial scales, using for example hierarchical models to estimate major coral-reef processes, will not only rapidly advance coral-reef science but will also provide necessary information to guide decision-making and conservation efforts. To conserve reefs, we encourage implementing mesoscale sanctuaries (thousands of km² ) that transcend national boundaries. Such networks of protected reefs will provide reef connectivity, through larval dispersal that transverse thermal environments, and genotypic repositories that may become essential units of selection for environmentally diverse locations. Together, multinational networks may be the best chance corals have to persist through climate change, while humanity struggles to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases to net zero.

SizeExtractR: A workflow for rapid reproducible extraction of object size metrics from scaled images

Size is a biological characteristic that drives ecological processes from microscopic to geographic spatial scales, influencing cellular energetics, species fitness, population dynamics, and ecological interactions. Methods to measure size from images (e.g., proxies of body size, leaf area, and cell area) occur along a gradient from manual approaches to fully automated technologies (e.g., machine learning). These methods differ in terms of time investment, expertise required, and data or resource availability. While manual methods can improve accuracy through human recognition, they can be labor intensive, highlighting the need for semi‐automated, and user‐friendly software or workflows to increase the efficiency of manual techniques.

Here, we present SizeExtractR, an open‐source workflow that enables faster extraction of size metrics from scaled images (e.g., each image includes a ruler) using semi‐automated protocols. It comprises a set of ImageJ macros to speed up size extraction and annotation, and an R‐package for the quality control of annotations, data collation, calibration, and visualization.

SizeExtractR extracts seven common size dimensions, including planar area, min/max diameter, and perimeter. Users can record additional categorical variables relating to their own study, for example species ID, by simply adding alphanumeric annotations to individual objects when prompted. Using a population size structure case study for hard corals as an example, we show how SizeExtractR was used to quantify the impact of mass coral bleaching on coral population dynamics. Lastly, the time saving benefit of using SizeExtractR was quantified during a series of timed image analyses, revealing up to a 49% reduction in image analysis time compared to a fully manual approach.

SizeExtractR automatically archives results, allowing re‐analysis of size extraction and promoting quality control and reproducibility. It has already been employed in marine and terrestrial sciences to assess population dynamics and demography, energy investment in eggs, and growth of nursery reared corals, with potential to be applied to a wide range of other research fields.

Learning from differences: Abiotic determinism of benthic communities in Northern Taiwan

Differences in the initial configuration of ecological communities may lead to contrasting trajectories when facing environmental changes. Here, we propose to uncover the determinism of benthic communities by carrying out a detailed investigation of their response to small-scale modification of environmental conditions, including physical, chemical, and geological factors. At ten locations (confounding site and depth) in Northern Taiwan, communities were delineated using a morpho-functional classification of the organisms. A k-means clustering was used to identify k homogenous groups among transects. Their environmental determinism was examined by combining this result with 16 environmental variables of transect conditions into a regression tree framework. Biotic and abiotic data were further analyzed with a Multivariate Regression Tree (MRT) to ascertain the hierarchical environmental determinism. The classifications produced by both approaches were compared using the Adjusted Rand index (ARI) to assess the predictive power of unsupervised clustering on its missing explanatory components (abiotic variables). k-means and MRT produced five clusters, respectively, with a similarity of 0.82 in ARI. Wave motion, followed by substrate types resolved most of the variance, while chemical factors in this study were uniform throughout the region. Comparable structures for both methods (clustering groups) demonstrated that the delineated clusters matched with contrasting environmental conditions which could be explained by the existence of various benthic communities. Further consideration of these different communities and their environmental context will be important in determining their trajectories under global changes and may help in the interpretation of community modifications with changing environmental conditions.

Different population trajectories of two reef-building corals with similar life-history traits

Increases in the frequency and intensity of acute and chronic disturbances are causing declines of coral reefs world‐wide. Although quantifying the responses of corals to acute disturbances is well documented, detecting subtle responses of coral populations to chronic disturbances is less common, but can also result in altered population and community structures.

We investigated the population dynamics of two key reef‐building Merulinid coral species, Dipsastraea favus and Platygyra lamellina, with similar life‐history traits, in the Gulf of Eilat and Aqaba, Red Sea from 2015 to 2018, to assess potential differences in their population trajectories.

Demographic processes, which included rates of survival, growth, reproduction and recruitment were used to parametrize integral projection models and estimate population growth rates and the likely population trajectories of both coral species.

The survival and reproduction rates of both D. favus and P. lamellina were positively related to coral colony size, and elasticity analyses showed that large colonies most influenced population dynamics. Although both species have similar life‐history traits and growth morphologies and are generally regarded as ‘stress‐tolerant’, the populations showed contrasting trajectories—D. favus appears to be increasing whereas P. lamellina appears to be decreasing.

As many corals have long‐life expectancies, the process of local and regional decline might be subtle and slow. Ecological assessments based on total living coral coverage, morphological groups or functional traits might overlook subtle, species‐specific trends. However, demographic approaches capable of detecting subtle species‐specific population changes can augment ecological studies and provide valuable early warning signs of decline before major coral loss becomes evident.