ENMeval: An R package for conducting spatially independent evaluations and estimating optimal model complexity forMaxentecological niche models

Barriers and corridors: Assessment of gene flow and movement among red panda populations in eastern Himalayas

Landscape features can impede dispersal, gene flow, and population demography, resulting in the formation of several meta-populations within a continuous landscape. Understanding a species' ability to overcome these barriers is critical for predicting genetic connectivity and population persistence, and implementing effective conservation strategies. In the present study, we conducted a fine-scale spatial genetic analysis to understand the contemporary gene flow within red panda populations in the Eastern Himalayas. Employing geometric aspects of reserve design, we delineated the critical core habitats for red pandas, which comprise 14.5 % of the landscape (12,189.75 Km2), with only a mere 443 Km2 falling within the protected areas. We identified corridors among the core habitats, which may be vital for the species' long-term genetic viability. Furthermore, we identified substantial landscape barriers, including Sela Pass in the western region, Siang river in the central region, and the Dibang river, Lohit river, along with Dihang, Dipher, and Kumjawng passes in the eastern region, which hinder gene flow. We suggest managing red panda populations through the creation of Community Conservation Reserves in the identified core habitats, following landscape-level management planning based on the core principles of geometric reserve design. This includes a specific emphasis on identified core habitats of red panda (CH-RP 5 and CH-RP 8) to facilitate corridors and implement meta-population dynamics. We propose the development of a comprehensive, long-term conservation and management plan for red pandas in the transboundary landscape, covering China, Nepal, and Bhutan.

Shared phylogeographic patterns and environmental responses of co-distributed soybean pests: Insights from comparative phylogeographic studies of Riptortus pedestris and Riptortus linearis in the subtropics of East Asia

Comparative phylogeographic studies of closely related species sharing co-distribution areas can elucidate the role of shared historical factors and environmental changes in shaping their phylogeographic pattern. The bean bugs, Riptortus pedestris and Riptortus linearis, which both inhabit subtropical regions in East Asia, are recognized as highly destructive soybean pests. Many previous studies have investigated the biological characteristics, pheromones, chemicals and control mechanisms of these two pests, but few studies have explored their phylogeographic patterns and underlying factors. In this study, we generated a double-digest restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (ddRAD-seq) dataset to investigate phylogeographic patterns and construct ecological niche models (ENM) for both Riptortus species. Our findings revealed similar niche occupancies and population genetic structures between the two species, with each comprising two phylogeographic lineages (i.e., the mainland China and the Indochina Peninsula clades) that diverged approximately 0.1 and 0.3 million years ago, respectively. This divergence likely resulted from the combined effects of temperatures variation and geographical barriers in the mountainous regions of Southwest China. Further demographic history and ENM analyses suggested that both pests underwent rapid expansion prior to the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Furthermore, ENM predicts a northward shift of both pests into new soybean-producing regions due to global warming. Our study indicated that co-distribution soybean pests with overlapping ecological niches and similar life histories in subtropical regions of East Asia exhibit congruent phylogeographic and demographic patterns in response to shared historical biogeographic drivers.

Predicted range expansion of Prostephanus truncatus (Coleoptera: Bostrichidae) under projected climate change scenarios

The larger grain borer (Prostephanus truncatus [Horn] [Coleoptera: Bostrichidae]) is a wood-boring insect native to Central America and adapted to stored maize and cassava. It was accidentally introduced to Tanzania and became a pest across central Africa. Unlike many grain pests, P. truncatus populations can establish and move within forests. Consequently, novel infestations can occur without human influence. The objectives of our study were to (i) develop an updated current suitability projection for P. truncatus, (ii) assess its potential future distribution under different climate change scenarios, and (iii) identify climate variables that best inform the model. We used WALLACE and MaxEnt to predict potential global distribution by incorporating bioclimatic variables and occurrence records. Future models were projected for 2050 and 2070 with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6 (low change) and 8.5 (high change). Distribution was most limited by high precipitation and cold temperatures. Globally, highly suitable areas (> 75%) primarily occurred along coastal and equatorial regions with novel areas in northern South America, India, southeastern Asia, Indonesia, and the Philippines, totaling 7% under current conditions. Highly suitable areas at RCPs 2.6 and 8.5 are estimated to increase to 12% and 15%, respectively, by 2050 and increase to 19% in 2070 under RCP 8.5. Centroids of highly suitable areas show distribution centers moving more inshore and away from the equator. Notably, the result is a range expansion, not a shift. Results can be used to decrease biosecurity risks through more spatially explicit and timely surveillance programs for targeting the exclusion of this pest.

Unraveling the unknown: Adaptive spatial planning to enhance climate resilience for the endangered Swamp Grass-babbler (Laticilla cinerascens) with habitat connectivity and complexity approach

The endangered and poorly known Swamp Grass-babbler, Laticilla cinerascens (Passeriformes: Pellorneidae), confronts critical threats and vulnerability due to its specific habitat requirements and restricted populations in the northeastern region of the Indian Subcontinent. This study investigates the distribution of the species, habitat quality, geometry and shape complexity of connectivity among the protected areas (PAs), and responses to climate change in Northeast India under different climate change pathways by utilizing ensemble distribution models, and ecological metrics. From the total distribution extent (1,42,000 km2), approximately 9366 km2 (6.59 %) is identified as the suitable habitat for this threatened species. Historically centered around Dibru Saikhowa National Park (DSNP), the species faced a drastic decline due to anthropogenic activities and alteration in land use and lover cover. The study also reveals a significant decline in suitable habitat for L. cinerascens in future climate scenarios, with alarming reductions under SSP126 (>10 % in the timeframe 2041-2060 and > 30 % from 2061 to 2080), SSP245 (>90 % in both time periods), and SSP585 (>90 % in both timeframes) from the present scenario. At present, DSNP has the most suitable habitat within the distribution range but is projected to decline (>90 %) under more severe climate change scenarios, as observed in other PAs. Landscape fragmentation analysis indicates a shift in habitat geometry, highlighting the intricate impact of climate change. It predicts a substantial 343 % increase (in the SSP126) in small habitat patches in the future. Connectivity analysis among PAs shows a significant shift, with a decline exceeding 20 %. The analysis of shape complexity and connectivity geometry reveals a significant increase of over 220 % in the fragmentation of connectivity among PAs between 2061 and 2080 under the SSP585 climate change scenario compared to the present conditions. The study underscores the urgent need for conservation actions, emphasizing the complex interplay of climate change, habitat suitability, and fragmentation. Prioritizing PAs with suitable habitats and assessing their connectivity is crucial. Adaptive management strategies are essential to address ongoing environmental changes and safeguard biodiversity. Future research in critical areas is needed to establish long-term monitoring programs to lead/extend effective conservation strategies.

Novel insights into hotspots of insect vectors of GLRaV-3: Dynamics and global distribution

Grapevine leafroll-associated virus 3 (GLRaV-3) is the most prevalent and economically damaging virus in grapevines and is found on nearly all continents, except Antarctica. Ten mealybugs act as vector insects transmitting the GLRaV-3. Understanding the potential distribution range of vector insects under climate change is crucial for preventing and managing vector insects and controlling and delaying the spread of GLRaV-3. This study investigated the potential geographical range of insect vectors of GLRaV-3 worldwide using MaxEnt (maximum entropy) based on occurrence data under environmental variables. The potential distributions of these insects were projected for the 2030s, 2050s, 2070s, and 2090s under the three climate change scenarios. The results showed that the potential distribution range of most vector insects is concentrated in Southeastern North America, Europe, Asia, and Southeast Australia. Most vector insects contract their potential distribution ranges under climate-change conditions. The stacked model suggested that potential distribution hotspots of vector insects were present in Southeastern North America, Europe, Southeast Asia, and Southeast Australia. The potential distribution range of hotspots would shrink with climate change. These results provide important information for governmental decision-makers and farmers in developing control and management strategies against vector insects of GLRaV-3. They can also serve as references for studies on other insect vectors.

Cryptic diversity in southern African kelp

The southern coast of Africa is one of the few places in the world where water temperatures are predicted to cool in the future. This endemism-rich coastline is home to two sister species of kelps of the genus Ecklonia maxima and Ecklonia radiata, each associated with specific thermal niches, and occuring primarily on opposite sides of the southern tip of Africa. Historical distribution records indicate that E. maxima has recently shifted its distribution ~ 70 km eastward, to sites where only E. radiata was previously reported. The contact of sister species with contrasting thermal affinities and the occurrence of mixed morphologies raised the hypothesis that hybridization might be occurring in this contact zone. Here we describe the genetic structure of the genus Ecklonia along the southern coast of Africa and investigate potential hybridization and cryptic diversity using a combination of nuclear microsatellites and mitochondrial markers. We found that both species have geographically discrete genetic clusters, consistent with expected phylogeographic breaks along this coastline. In addition, depth-isolated populations were found to harbor unique genetic diversity, including a third Ecklonia lineage. Mito-nuclear discordance and high genetic divergence in the contact zones suggest multiple hybridization events between Ecklonia species. Discordance between morphological and molecular identification suggests the potential influence of abiotic factors leading to convergent phenotypes in the contact zones. Our results highlight an example of cryptic diversity and hybridization driven by contact between two closely related keystone species with contrasting thermal affinities.

Risk Assessment of Spodoptera exempta against Food Security: Estimating the Potential Global Overlapping Areas of Wheat, Maize, and Rice under Climate Change

Spodoptera exempta, known as the black armyworm, has been extensively documented as an invasive agricultural pest prevalent across various crop planting regions globally. However, the potential geographical distribution and the threat it poses to host crops of remains unknown at present. Therefore, we used an optimized MaxEnt model based on 841 occurrence records and 19 bioclimatic variables to predict the potential suitable areas of S. exempta under current and future climatic conditions, and the overlap with wheat, rice, and maize planting areas was assessed. The optimized model was highly reliable in predicting potential suitable areas for this pest. The results showed that high-risk distribution areas for S. exempta were mainly in developing countries, including Latin America, central South America, central Africa, and southern Asia. Moreover, for the three major global food crops, S. exempta posed the greatest risk to maize planting areas (510.78 × 104 km2), followed by rice and wheat planting areas. Under future climate scenarios, global warming will limit the distribution of S. exempta. Overall, S. exempta had the strongest effect on global maize production areas and the least on global wheat planting areas. Our study offers a scientific basis for global prevention of S. exempta and protection of agricultural crops.

Suitable habitat shifts and ecological niche overlay assessments among benthic Oplegnathus species in response to climate change

Climate change has had a significant impact on many marine organisms. To investigate the effects of environmental changes on deep-water benthic fishes, we selected the genus Oplegnathus and applied species distribution modeling and ecological niche modeling. From the last glacial maximum to the present, the three Oplegnathus species (O. conwayi, O. robinsoni, and O. peaolopesi) distributed in the Cape of Good Hope region of southern Africa experienced fitness zone fluctuations of 39.9%, 13%, and 5.7%, respectively. In contrast, O. fasciatus and O. punctatus, which were primarily distributed in the western Pacific Ocean, had fitness zone fluctuations of -6.5% and 11.7%, respectively. Neither the O. insignis nor the O. woodward varied by more than 5% over the period. Under future environmental conditions, the range of variation in fitness zones for the three southern African Oplegnathus species was expected to be between -30.8% and -26.5%, while the range of variation in fitness zones for the two western Pacific stonefish species was expected to remain below 13%. In addition, the range of variation in the fitness zones of the O. insignis was projected to be between -2.3% and 7.1%, and the range of variation in the fitness zones of the O. woodward is projected to be between -5.7% and -2%. The results indicated that O. fasciatus and O. punctatus had a wide distribution and high expansion potential, while Oplegnathus species might have originated in western Pacific waters. Our results showed that benthic fishes were highly adaptable to extreme environments, such as the last glacial maximum. The high ecological niche overlap between Oplegnathus species in the same region suggested that they competed with each other. Future research could explore the impacts of environmental change on marine organisms and make conservation and management recommendations.

Prediction of Potential Suitable Distribution Areas for an Endangered Salamander in China

Climate change has been considered to pose critical threats for wildlife. During the past decade, species distribution models were widely used to assess the effects of climate change on the distribution of species' suitable habitats. Among all the vertebrates, amphibians are most vulnerable to climate change. This is especially true for salamanders, which possess some specific traits such as cutaneous respiration and low vagility. The Wushan salamander (Liua shihi) is a threatened and protected salamander in China, with its wild population decreasing continuously. The main objective of this study was to predict the distribution of suitable habitat for L. shihi using the ENMeval parameter-optimized MaxEnt model under current and future climate conditions. Our results showed that precipitation, cloud density, vegetation type, and ultraviolet radiation were the main environmental factors affecting the distribution of L. shihi. Currently, the suitable habitats for L. shihi are mainly concentrated in the Daba Mountains, including northeastern Chongqing and western Hubei Provinces. Under the future climate conditions, the area of suitable habitats increased, which mainly occurred in central Guizhou Province. This study provided important information for the conservation of L. shihi. Future studies can incorporate more species distribution models to better understand the effects of climate change on the distribution of L. shihi.

Predicting suitable habitat for the endangered tree Ormosia microphylla in China

Climate change has significantly influenced the growth and distribution of plant species, particularly those with a narrow ecological niche. Understanding climate change impacts on the distribution and spatial pattern of endangered species can improve conservation strategies. The MaxEnt model is widely applied to predict species distribution and environmental tolerance based on occurrence data. This study investigated the suitable habitats of the endangered Ormosia microphylla in China and evaluated the importance of bioclimatic factors in shaping its distribution. Occurrence data and environmental variables were gleaned to construct the MaxEnt model, and the resulting suitable habitat maps were evaluated for accuracy. The results showed that the MaxEnt model had an excellent simulation quality (AUC = 0.962). The major environmental factors predicting the current distribution of O. microphylla were the mean diurnal range (bio2) and precipitation of the driest month (bio14). The current core potential distribution areas were concentrated in Guangxi, Fujian, Guizhou, Guangdong, and Hunan provinces in south China, demonstrating significant differences in their distribution areas. Our findings contribute to developing effective conservation and management measures for O. microphylla, addressing the critical need for reliable prediction of unfavorable impacts on the potential suitable habitats of the endangered species.

Predicting suitable areas for Metcalfa pruinosa (Hemiptera: Flatidae) under climate change and implications for management

Climate change is a prominent factor reshaping the distribution of invasive species. Metcalfa pruinosa (Say 1830) (Hemiptera: Flatidae), native to North America, has invaded other continents and poses a serious threat to various agricultural crops and the human residential environment. Understanding the distribution of M. pruinosa based on climatic conditions is a critical first step to prevent its further invasion. Therefore, based on its occurrence records and associated environmental variables, a Maxent model was developed to predict suitable areas for this species in the present and future on a global scale. The model exhibited outstanding performance, with a mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and true skill statistic values of 0.9329 and 0.926, respectively. The model also indicated that annual precipitation (Bio12) and max temperature of the warmest month (Bio5) were the key environmental variables limiting the distribution of M. pruinosa. Moreover, the model revealed that the current suitable area is 1.01 × 107 km2 worldwide, with southern China, southern Europe, and the eastern United States predicted to be the primary and highly suitable areas in the latter 2 regions. This area is expected to increase under future climate scenarios, mainly in the northern direction. The study's findings contribute to our understanding of climate change's impact on M. pruinosa distribution, and they will aid governments in developing appropriate pest management strategies, including global monitoring and strict quarantine measures.

Rethinking ecological niches and geographic distributions in face of pervasive human influence in the Anthropocene

Species are distributed in predictable ways in geographic spaces. The three principal factors that determine geographic distributions of species are biotic interactions (B), abiotic conditions (A), and dispersal ability or mobility (M). A species is expected to be present in areas that are accessible to it and that contain suitable sets of abiotic and biotic conditions for it to persist. A species' probability of presence can be quantified as a combination of responses to B, A, and M via ecological niche modeling (ENM; also frequently referred to as species distribution modeling or SDM). This analytical approach has been used broadly in ecology and biogeography, as well as in conservation planning and decision-making, but commonly in the context of 'natural' settings. However, it is increasingly recognized that human impacts, including changes in climate, land cover, and ecosystem function, greatly influence species' geographic ranges. In this light, historical distinctions between natural and anthropogenic factors have become blurred, and a coupled human-natural landscape is recognized as the new norm. Therefore, B, A, and M (BAM) factors need to be reconsidered to understand and quantify species' distributions in a world with a pervasive signature of human impacts. Here, we present a framework, termed human-influenced BAM (Hi-BAM, for distributional ecology that (i) conceptualizes human impacts in the form of six drivers, and (ii) synthesizes previous studies to show how each driver modifies the natural BAM and species' distributions. Given the importance and prevalence of human impacts on species distributions globally, we also discuss implications of this framework for ENM/SDM methods, and explore strategies by which to incorporate increasing human impacts in the methodology. Human impacts are redefining biogeographic patterns; as such, future studies should incorporate signals of human impacts integrally in modeling and forecasting species' distributions.

Range-Wide Phylogeography and Ecological Niche Modeling Provide Insights into the Evolutionary History of the Mongolian Racerunner (Eremias argus) in Northeast Asia

The Mongolian racerunner, Eremias argus, is a small lizard endemic to Northeast Asia that can serve as an excellent model for investigating how geography and past climate change have jointly influenced the evolution of biodiversity in this region. To elucidate the processes underlying its diversification and demography, we reconstructed the range-wide phylogeographic pattern and evolutionary trajectory, using phylogenetic, population genetic, landscape genetic, Bayesian phylogeographic reconstruction and ecological niche modeling approaches. Phylogenetic analyses of the mtDNA cyt b gene revealed eight lineages that were unbounded by geographic region. The genetic structure of E. argus was mainly determined by geographic distance. Divergence dating indicated that E. argus and E. brenchleyi diverged during the Mid-Pliocene Warm Period. E. argus was estimated to have coalesced at~0.4351 Ma (Marine Isotope Stage 19). Bayesian phylogeographic diffusion analysis revealed out-of-Inner Mongolia and rapid colonization events from the end of the Last Interglacial to the Last Glacial Maximum, which is consistent with the expanded suitable range of the Last Glacial Maximum. Pre-Last Glacial Maximum growth of population is presented for most lineages of E. argus. The Glacial Maximum contraction model and the previous multiple glacial refugia hypotheses are rejected. This may be due to an increase in the amount of climatically favorable habitats in Northeast Asia. Furthermore, E. argus barbouri most likely represents an invalid taxon. The present study is the first to report a range-wide phylogeography of reptiles over such a large region in Northeast Asia. Our results make a significant contribution towards understanding the biogeography of the entire Northeast Asia.

Response of Extremely Small Populations to Climate Change-A Case of Trachycarpus nanus in Yunnan, China

Climate change affects the geographical distribution of plant species. Rare Trachycarpus nanus with a narrow distribution range, high medicinal value and extremely small population is facing increasing extinction risks under global climate change. In this study, 96 recorded occurrences and 23 environmental factors are used to predict the potential suitable area of T. nanus based on the optimized MaxEnt (3.4.4) model and ArcGIS (10.7) software. The results show that when the parameters are FC = LQ and RM = 1, the MaxEnt model is optimal and AUC = 0.946. The distribution patterns were predicted in the past, present, and four future phases, i.e., 2021-2040 (2030), 2041-2060 (2050), 2061-2080 (2070), and 2081-2100 (2090). The main factors are the annual precipitation (bio12), mean temperature of the coldest quarter (bio11), temperature seasonality (bio4), precipitation of the wettest quarter (bio16), and isothermality (bio3). The potential distribution of T. nanus is primarily concentrated in central Chuxiong, encompassing a total potential suitable area of 5.65 × 104 km2. In historical periods, the total habitat area is smaller than that in the present. In the future, the potential suitable area is generally increased. The centroid analysis shows that T. nanus will move to a high-altitude area and to the southeast. But its dispersal capacity may not keep up with the climate change rate. Therefore, additional protection sites for this species should be appropriately established and the habitat connectivity should be enhanced.

Genetic structure and landscape effects on gene flow in the Neotropical lizard Norops brasiliensis (Squamata: Dactyloidae)

One key research goal of evolutionary biology is to understand the origin and maintenance of genetic variation. In the Cerrado, the South American savanna located primarily in the Central Brazilian Plateau, many hypotheses have been proposed to explain how landscape features (e.g., geographic distance, river barriers, topographic compartmentalization, and historical climatic fluctuations) have promoted genetic structure by mediating gene flow. Here, we asked whether these landscape features have influenced the genetic structure and differentiation in the lizard species Norops brasiliensis (Squamata: Dactyloidae). To achieve our goal, we used a genetic clustering analysis and estimate an effective migration surface to assess genetic structure in the focal species. Optimized isolation-by-resistance models and a simulation-based approach combined with machine learning (convolutional neural network; CNN) were then used to infer current and historical effects on population genetic structure through 12 unique landscape models. We recovered five geographically distributed populations that are separated by regions of lower-than-expected gene flow. The results of the CNN showed that geographic distance is the sole predictor of genetic variation in N. brasiliensis, and that slope, rivers, and historical climate had no discernible influence on gene flow. Our novel CNN approach was accurate (89.5%) in differentiating each landscape model. CNN and other machine learning approaches are still largely unexplored in landscape genetics studies, representing promising avenues for future research with increasingly accessible genomic datasets.

The Neanderthal niche space of Western Eurasia 145 ka to 30 ka ago

Neanderthals occupied Western Eurasia between 350 ka and 40 ka ago, during the climatically volatile Pleistocene. A key issue is to what extent Neanderthal populations expanded into areas of Western Eurasia and what conditions facilitated such range expansions. The range extent of Neanderthals is generally based on the distribution of Neanderthal material, but the land-altering nature of glacial periods has erased much of the already sparse material evidence of Neanderthals, particularly in the northern latitudes. To overcome this obstacle species distribution models can estimate past distributions of Neanderthals, however, most implementations are generally constrained spatially and temporally and may be artificially truncating the Neanderthal niche space. Using dated contexts from Neanderthal sites from across Western Eurasia, millennial-scale paleoclimate reconstructions, and a spatiotemporal species distribution model, we infer the fundamental climatic niche space of Neanderthals and estimate the extent of Neanderthal occupation. We find that (a.) despite the long timeframe, Neanderthals occupy a relatively narrow fundamental climatic niche space, (b.) the estimated projected potential Neanderthal niche space suggests a larger geographic range than the material record suggests, and (c.) that there was a general decline in the size of the projected potential Neanderthal niche from 145 ka ago onward, possibly contributing to their extinction.

Predicting Quercus gilva distribution dynamics and its response to climate change induced by GHGs emission through MaxEnt modeling

Quercus gilva, an evergreen tree species in Quercus section Cyclobalanopsis, is an ecologically and economically valuable species in subtropical regions of East Asia. Predicting the impact of climate change on potential distribution of Q. gilva can provide a scientific basis for the conservation and utilization of its genetic resources, as well as for afforestation. In this study, 74 distribution records of Q. gilva and nine climate variables were obtained after data collection and processing. Current climate data downloaded from WorldClim and future climate data predicted by four future climate scenarios (2040s SSP1-2.6, 2040s SSP5-8.5, 2060s SSP1-2.6, and 2060s SSP5-8.5) mainly based on greenhouse gases emissions of distribution sites were used in MaxEnt model with optimized parameters to predict distribution dynamics of Q. gilva and its response to climate change. The results showed that the predicted current distribution was consistent with natural distribution of Q. gilva, which was mainly located in Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guizhou, and Taiwan provinces of China, as well as Japan and Jeju Island of South Korea. Under current climate conditions, precipitation factors played a more significant role than temperature factors on distribution of Q. gilva, and precipitation of driest quarter (BIO17) is the most important restriction factor for its current distribution (contribution rate of 57.35%). Under future climate conditions, mean temperature of driest quarter (BIO9) was the essential climate factor affecting future change in potential distribution of Q. gilva. As the degree of climatic anomaly increased in the future, the total area of predicted distribution of Q. gilva showed a shrinking trend (decreased by 12.24%-45.21%) and Q. gilva would migrate to high altitudes and latitudes. The research results illustrated potential distribution range and suitable climate conditions of Q. gilva, which can provide essential theoretical references for the conservation, development, and utilization of Q. gilva and other related species.

Setting restorative goals with a regional outlook: Mine-rehabilitation outcomes influence landscape connectivity

Mining is increasing worldwide and is typically associated with highly negative environmental impacts, such as habitat loss and fragmentation. To counteract these effects and improve restoration practices, decisions, such as setting mine rehabilitation goals, could incorporate the assessment and restoration of landscape connectivity into their regional and local-scale planning. The overarching goal of this work was to assess landscape connectivity for flora and fauna and explore mine-rehabilitation scenarios that can be used as a tool for prioritising biodiversity outcomes. Our study area comprised the Fitzroy Basin (Queensland, Australia), where the disturbance footprints from mining cover a cumulative area of 121,239 ha. We considered two scenarios: rehabilitation to agriculture and restoration to native ecosystems. To compare these scenarios, we created differential maps, which highlighted that restoring to native ecosystems represented connectivity gains over agricultural rehabilitation goals. These maps revealed three ways to prioritise rehabilitation outcomes, giving priority to mines that: 1) presented medium to high connectivity values, 2) covered a large area of influence (contributing to connectivity on a larger scale, regardless of current flow values), and 3) showed a gain of important paths/corridors. We explored four case studies and found that three benefited from restoration outcomes, while the fourth did not benefit by either scenario. Our methods can be used for decision-making in restoration ecology and conservation, including mine rehabilitation priorities and goals, as well as for evaluating connectivity gains or losses.

The great urban shift: Climate change is predicted to drive mass species turnover in cities

Human experiences with nature are important for our culture, economy, and health. Anthropogenically-driven climate change is causing widespread shifts in biodiversity and resident urban wildlife are no exception. We modelled over 2,000 animal species to predict how climate change will impact terrestrial wildlife within 60 Canadian and American cities. We found evidence of an impending great urban shift where thousands of species will disappear across the selected cities, being replaced by new species, or not replaced at all. Effects were largely species-specific, with the most negatively impacted taxa being amphibians, canines, and loons. These predicted shifts were consistent across scenarios of greenhouse gas emissions, but our results show that the severity of change will be defined by our action or inaction to mitigate climate change. An impending massive shift in urban wildlife will impact the cultural experiences of human residents, the delivery of ecosystem services, and our relationship with nature.

Evolution of the ecological niche behind the largest disjunct freshwater fish distribution in the world

Ecological processes that are behind distributions of species that inhabit isolated localities, complex disjunct distributions, remain poorly understood. Traditionally, vicariance and dispersion have been proposed as explanatory mechanisms that drive such distributions. However, to date, our understanding of the ecological processes driving evolution of ecological niches associated with disjunct distributions remains rudimentary. Here, we propose a framework to deconstruct drivers of such distribution using World's most widespread freshwater fish Galaxias maculatus as a model and integrating marine and freshwater environments where its life cycle may occur. Specifically, we assessed ecological and historical factors (Gondwanan vicariance, marine dispersion) and potential dispersion (niche-tracking) that explain its distribution in the Southern Hemisphere. Estimated distribution was consistent with previously reported distribution and mainly driven by temperature and topography in freshwater environments and by primary productivity and nitrate in marine environments. Niche dynamics of G. maculatus provided evidence of synergy between vicariance and marine dispersion as explanatory mechanisms of its disjunct distribution, suggesting that its ecological niche was conserved since approximately 30 Ma ago. This integrated assessment of ecological niche in marine and freshwater environments serves as a generic framework that may be applied to understand processes underpinning complex distributions of diadromous species.

Preserving the spots: Jaguar (Panthera onca) distribution and priority conservation areas in Colombia

The jaguar (Panthera onca) is a charismatic species considered Vulnerable in Colombia but yet largely unknown in the country. The species is mostly threatened by the continuous decline in its habitats, mostly derived from deforestation and habitat loss, additional to hunting and conflicts with humans. Thus, the future of jaguars in Colombia depends on protecting and recovering existing habitats. The aims of this study were to 1) evaluate jaguar distribution and identify the remnant patches of habitat in Colombia, 2) define an ecological connectivity network within the country, and 3) propose a priority areas portfolio for the conservation and recovery of jaguars. We used a presence background model for estimating species potential distribution and subsequently identified remaining habitat patches across the country based on land cover and species-specific ecological attributes. We then created an ecological connectivity network based on circuit theory and following a multi-criteria approach identified jaguar priority areas for conservation (JPCA) and recovery (JPRA). Jaguar potential distribution comprises 1103122.43 km2, from which 56.71% maintain suitable patches of potential habitat. We identified 960 corridors between remnant patches of natural or semi-natural vegetation. Based on the criteria, JPCAs with greater importance were identified in each of the five Colombian regions. JPRAs were located mainly towards the Andean and Caribbean regions. These JPCAs and JPRAs could serve as a guide for designing and implementing management strategies for the long-term conservation and recovery of the species in Colombia.

A cost-effective, machine learning-driven approach for screening arterial functional aging in a large-scale Chinese population

Introduction

An easily accessible and cost-free machine learning model based on prior probabilities of vascular aging enables an application to pinpoint high-risk populations before physical checks and optimize healthcare investment.

Methods

A dataset containing questionnaire responses and physical measurement parameters from 77,134 adults was extracted from the electronic records of the Health Management Center at the Third Xiangya Hospital. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator and recursive feature elimination-Lightweight Gradient Elevator were employed to select features from a pool of potential covariates. The participants were randomly divided into training (70%) and test cohorts (30%). Four machine learning algorithms were applied to build the screening models for elevated arterial stiffness (EAS), and the performance of models was evaluated by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.

Results

Fourteen easily accessible features were selected to construct the model, including "systolic blood pressure" (SBP), "age," "waist circumference," "history of hypertension," "sex," "exercise," "awareness of normal blood pressure," "eat fruit," "work intensity," "drink milk," "eat bean products," "smoking," "alcohol consumption," and "Irritableness." The extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model outperformed the other three models, achieving AUC values of 0.8722 and 0.8710 in the training and test sets, respectively. The most important five features are SBP, age, waist, history of hypertension, and sex.

Conclusion

The XGBoost model ideally assesses the prior probability of the current EAS in the general population. The integration of the model into primary care facilities has the potential to lower medical expenses and enhance the management of arterial aging.

Grass species with potential for rangelands restoration in northern Mexico: an assessment with environmental niche modeling

Environmental niche modeling (ENM) has emerged as a promising tool for identifying grass species with potential for rangeland restoration. This approach can detect suitable areas and environments where these species can be planted. In this study, we employed ENM to estimate the potential distribution range of 50 grass species of the grasslands and shrublands of northern Mexico. The outcome of the ENM served to identify grass species with potential for restoration in Mexico, especially those not commonly used for that purpose in the past. Results suggested the possibility of selecting seven grass species with the potential for revegetating degraded grasslands, nine for shrublands, and six for alkaline soils. This research provides insights into the environmental adaptations of different grass species distributed in the rangelands of northern Mexico. Ecologists, conservation planners, researchers, and range managers could use these outcomes and the maps of the potential distribution ranges as supportive information to conduct effective restoration efforts. In turn, this can assist in increasing the probability of success of future rangelands restoration programs, which are often costly in terms of financial investments and labor.

Potential habitat areas and priority protected areas of Tilia amurensis Rupr in China under the context of climate change

Introduction

Tilia amurensis Rupr (T. amurensis) is one endangered and national class II key protected wild plant in China. It has ornamental, material, economic, edible and medicinal values. At present, the resources of T. amurensis are decreasing, and the prediction of the distribution of its potential habitat in China can provide a theoretical basis for the cultivation and rational management of this species.

Methods

In this study, the R language was used to evaluate 358 distribution records and 38 environment variables. The MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution areas of T. amurensis under the current and future climate scenarios. The dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. amurensis were analyzed and the Marxan model was used to plan the priority protected areas of this species.

Results

The results showed that Bio18, Slope, Elev, Bio1, Bio9 and Bio2 were the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of T. amurensis. Under the future climatic scenarios, the potential suitable areas for T. amurensis will mainly distribute in the Northeast China, the total suitable area will reduce compared with the current climate scenarios, and the general trend of the centroid of suitable habitat will be towards higher latitudes. The SPF value of the best plan obtained from the priority conservation area planning was 1.1, the BLM value was 127,616, and the priority conservation area was about 57.61×104 km2. The results suggested that climate, soil and topographic factors jointly affected the potential geographical distribution of T. amurensis, and climate and topographic factors had greater influence than soil factors.

Discussion

The total suitable area of T. amurensis in China under different climate scenarios in the future will decrease, so more effective protection should be actively adopted.

Unravelling the role of tropical cyclones in shaping present species distributions

Driven by climate change, tropical cyclones (TCs) are predicted to change in intensity and frequency through time. Given these forecasted changes, developing an understanding of how TCs impact insular wildlife is of heightened importance. Previous work has shown that extreme weather events may shape species distributions more strongly than climatic averages; however, given the coarse spatial and temporal scales at which TC data are often reported, the influence of TCs on species distributions has yet to be explored. Using TC data from the National Hurricane Center, we developed spatially and temporally explicit species distribution models (SDMs) to examine the role of TCs in shaping present-day distributions of Puerto Rico's 10 Anolis lizard species. We created six predictor variables to represent the intensity and frequency of TCs. For each occurrence of a species, we calculated these variables for TCs that came within 500 km of the center of Puerto Rico and occurred within the 1-year window prior to when that occurrence was recorded. We also included predictor variables related to landcover, climate, topography, canopy cover and geology. We used random forests to assess model performance and variable importance in models with and without TC variables. We found that the inclusion of TC variables improved model performance for the majority of Puerto Rico's 10 anole species. The magnitude of the improvement varied by species, with generalist species that occur throughout the island experiencing the greatest improvements in model performance. Range-restricted species experienced small, almost negligible, improvements but also had more predictive models both with and without the inclusion of TC variables compared to generalist species. Our findings suggest that incorporating data on TCs into SDMs may be important for modeling insular species that are prone to experiencing these types of extreme weather events.

Prediction of potential suitable habitats in the 21st century and GAP analysis of priority conservation areas of Chionanthus retusus based on the MaxEnt and Marxan models

Chionanthus retusus (C. retusus) has a high economic and medicinal value, but in recent years it has been included in the list of China's major protected plants and China's Red List of Biodiversity due to the serious destruction of its wild germplasm resources. Based on 131 sample points of C. retusus, this study simulated potential habitats and spatial changes of C. retusus in the 21st century using the Maxent model combined with the geographic information system ArcGIS, predicted prioritized protected areas by the Marxan model, and assessed current conservation status through GAP analysis. The results showed that (1) when the regularization multiplier was 1.5 and the feature combinations were linear, quadratic, and fragmented, the area under the curve of the subjects in the training and test sets were both above 0.9, the true skill statistic value was 0.80, and the maximum Kappa value was 0.62, meaning that the model had high accuracy; (2) Temperature seasonality, annual precipitation, min temperature for coldest month, and precipitation of wettest month had relatively strong influences on species' ranges. (3) The moderately and optimally suitable habitats of C. retusus were primly located in the areas of southwestern Shanxi, central Hebei, western Henan, Shandong, Shaanxi, Anhui and Hubei; (4) Under different future climate scenarios, the area of each class of suitable habitat will increase for varied amounts compared to the current period, with a general trend of expansion to the south; (5) The C. retusus priority protected areas were mainly located in most of Shandong, southern Liaoning, southwestern Shanxi, western Henan, and central Hebei, and its conservation vacancy area was relatively large compared to its protected area. These results will provide scientific strategies for implementing long-term conservation of C. retusus in China and similar regions under warming conditions in the 21st century.

Modelling climate change impacts on the spatial distribution of anthrax in Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

In Zimbabwe, anthrax is endemic with outbreaks being reported almost annually in livestock, wildlife, and humans over the past 40 years. Accurate modelling of its spatial distribution is key in formulating effective control strategies. In this study, an Ensemble Species Distribution Model was used to model the current and future distribution of anthrax occurrence in Zimbabwe.

METHODS

Bioclimatic variables derived from the Beijing Climate Centre Climate System Model were used to model the disease. Collinearity testing was conducted on the 19 bioclimatic variables and elevation to remove redundancy. Variables that had no collinearity were used for anthrax habitat suitability modelling. Two future climate change scenarios for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 were used. Model evaluation was done using true skill, Kappa statistics and receiver operating characteristics.

RESULTS

The results showed that under current bioclimatic conditions, eastern and western districts of Zimbabwe were modelled as highly suitable, central districts moderately suitable and southern parts marginally suitable for anthrax occurrence. Future predictions demonstrated that the suitable (8%) and highly suitable (7%) areas for anthrax occurrence would increase under RCP4.5 scenario. In contrast, a respective decrease (11%) and marginal increase (0.6%) of suitable and highly suitable areas for anthrax occurrence were predicted under the RCP8.5 scenario. The percentage contribution of the predictors varied for the different scenarios; Bio6 and Bio18 for the current scenario, Bio2, Bio4 and Bio9 for the RCP4.5 and Bio3 and Bio15 for the RCP8.5 scenarios.

CONCLUSIONS

The study revealed that areas currently suitable for anthrax should be targeted for surveillance and prevention. The predicted future anthrax distribution can be used to guide and prioritise surveillance and control activities and optimise allocation of limited resources. In the marginally to moderately suitable areas, effective disease surveillance systems and awareness need to be put in place for early detection of outbreaks. Targeted vaccinations and other control measures including collaborative 'One Health' strategies need to be implemented in the predicted highly suitable areas. In the southern part where a high decrease in suitability was predicted, continued monitoring would be necessary to detect incursions early.

Prediction of Historical, Current, and Future Configuration of Tibetan Medicinal Herb Gymnadenia orchidis Based on the Optimized MaxEnt in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Climate change plays a pivotal role in shaping the shifting patterns of plant distribution, and gaining insights into how medicinal plants in the plateau region adapt to climate change will be instrumental in safeguarding the rich biodiversity of the highlands. Gymnosia orchidis Lindl. (G. orchidis) is a valuable Tibetan medicinal resource with significant medicinal, ecological, and economic value. However, the growth of G. orchidis is severely constrained by stringent natural conditions, leading to a drastic decline in its resources. Therefore, it is crucial to study the suitable habitat areas of G. orchidis to facilitate future artificial cultivation and maintain ecological balance. In this study, we investigated the suitable zones of G. orchidis based on 79 occurrence points in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) and 23 major environmental variables, including climate, topography, and soil type. We employed the Maximum Entropy model (MaxEnt) to simulate and predict the spatial distribution and configuration changes in G. orchidis during different time periods, including the last interglacial (LIG), the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the Mid-Holocene (MH), the present, and future scenarios (2041-2060 and 2061-2080) under three different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585). Our results indicated that annual precipitation (Bio12, 613-2466 mm) and mean temperature of the coldest quarter (Bio11, -5.8-8.5 °C) were the primary factors influencing the suitable habitat of G. orchidis, with a cumulative contribution of 78.5%. The precipitation and temperature during the driest season had the most significant overall impact. Under current climate conditions, the suitable areas of G. orchidis covered approximately 63.72 × 104/km2, encompassing Yunnan, Gansu, Sichuan, and parts of Xizang provinces, with the highest suitability observed in the Hengduan, Yunlin, and Himalayan mountain regions. In the past, the suitable area of G. orchidis experienced significant changes during the Mid-Holocene, including variations in the total area and centroid migration direction. In future scenarios, the suitable habitat of G. orchidis is projected to expand significantly under SSP370 (30.33-46.19%), followed by SSP585 (1.41-22.3%), while contraction is expected under SSP126. Moreover, the centroids of suitable areas exhibited multidirectional movement, with the most extensive displacement observed under SSP585 (100.38 km2). This study provides a theoretical foundation for the conservation of biodiversity and endangered medicinal plants in the QTP.

Modeling the pest-pathogen threats in a warming world for the red turpentine beetle (Dendroctonus valens) and its symbiotic fungus (Leptographium procerum)

BACKGROUND

Dendroctonus valens along with its symbiotic fungi have caused unprecedented damage to pines in China. Leptographium procerum, its primary symbiotic fungus, facilitates the invasion and colonization of the pest, thereby aggravating ecological threats. Assessing shifts in the niches and ranges of D. valens and its symbiotic fungus could provide a valuable basis for pest control. Here, we conducted niche comparisons between native and invasive populations of D. valens. Then, we employed standard ecological niche models and ensembles of small models to predict the potential distributions of D. valens and L. procerum under climate change conditions and to estimate areas of overlap.

RESULTS

The niche of invasive population of D. valens in Chinese mainland only occupied a limited portion of the niche of native population in North America, leaving a substantial native niche unfilled and without any niche expansion. The suitable regions for D. valens are predicted in central and southern North America and central and northeastern Chinese mainland. The overlap with the suitable regions of L. procerum included eastern North America and the central and northeastern Chinese mainland under historical climatic scenarios. The regions susceptible to their symbiotic damage will shift northward in response to future climate change.

CONCLUSIONS

Projected distributions of D. valens and its symbiotic fungus, along with areas vulnerable to their symbiotic damage, provide essential insights for devising strategies against this association. Additionally, our study contributes to comprehending how biogeographic approaches aid in estimating potential risks of pest-pathogen interactions in forests within a warming world. © 2024 Society of Chemical Industry.

Using social media records to inform conservation planning

Citizen science plays a crucial role in helping monitor biodiversity and inform conservation. With the widespread use of smartphones, many people share biodiversity information on social media, but this information is still not widely used in conservation. Focusing on Bangladesh, a tropical megadiverse and mega-populated country, we examined the importance of social media records in conservation decision-making. We collated species distribution records for birds and butterflies from Facebook and Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF), grouped them into GBIF-only and combined GBIF and Facebook data, and investigated the differences in identifying critical conservation areas. Adding Facebook data to GBIF data improved the accuracy of systematic conservation planning assessments by identifying additional important conservation areas in the northwest, southeast, and central parts of Bangladesh, extending priority conservation areas by 4,000-10,000 km2 . Community efforts are needed to drive the implementation of the ambitious Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework targets, especially in megadiverse tropical countries with a lack of reliable and up-to-date species distribution data. We highlight that conservation planning can be enhanced by including available data gathered from social media platforms.

Potential Global Distribution of Paracoccus marginatus, under Climate Change Conditions, Using MaxEnt

The papaya mealybug, Paracoccus marginatus, is an invasive pest species found all over the world. It is native to Mexico and Central America, but is now present in more than 50 countries and regions, seriously threatening the economic viability of the agricultural and forestry industry. In the current study, the global potential distribution of P. marginatus was predicted under current and future climatic conditions using MaxEnt. The results of the model assessment indicated that the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic ( ROC-AUC) was 0.949, while the TSS value was 0.820. The results also showed that the three variables with the greatest impact on the model were min temperature of coldest month (bio6), precipitation of wettest month (bio13), and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19), with corresponding contributions of 46.8%, 31.1%, and 13.1%, respectively. The results indicated that the highly suitable areas were mainly located in tropical and subtropical regions, including South America, southern North America, Central America, Central Africa, Australia, the Indian subcontinent, and Southeast Asia. Under four climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s, the area of suitability will change very little. Moreover, the results showed that the area of suitable areas in 2070s increased under all four climate scenarios compared to the current climate. In contrast, the area of suitable habitat increases from the current to the 2050s under the SSP370 and SSP585 climate scenarios. The current study could provide a reference framework for the future control and management of papaya mealybug and other invasive species.

The effectiveness of species distribution models in predicting local abundance depends on model grain size

The use of species distribution models (SDMs) to predict local abundance has been often proposed and contested. We tested whether SDMs at different spatiotemporal resolutions may predict the local density of 14 bird species of open/semi-open habitats. SDMs were built at 1 ha and 1 km, and with long-term versus a mix of current and long-term climatic variables. The estimated environmental suitability was used to predict local abundance obtained by means of 275 linear transects. We tested SDM ability to predict abundance for all sampled sites versus occurrence sites, using N-mixture models to account for imperfect detection. Then, we related the R2 of N-mixture models to SDM traits. Fine-grain SDMs appeared generally more robust than large-grain ones. Considering the all-transects models, for all species environmental suitability displayed a positive and highly significant effect at all the four combinations of spatial and temporal grains. When focusing only on occurrence transects, at the 1 km grain only one species showed a significant and positive effect. At the 1 ha grain, 62% of species models showed (over both climatic sets) a significant or nearly significant positive effect of environmental suitability on abundance. Grain was the only factor significantly affecting the model's explanatory power: 1 km grain led to lower amounts of variation explained by models. Our work re-opens the debate about predicting abundance using SDM-derived suitability, emphasizing the importance of grains and of spatiotemporal resolution more in general. The incorporation of local variables into SDMs at fine grains is key to predict local abundance. SDMs worked out at really fine grains, approaching the average size of territory or home range of target species, are needed to predict local abundance effectively. This may result from the fact that each single cell may represent a potential territory/home range, and hence a higher suitability over a given area means that more potential territories occur there.

Disentangling the contemporary and historical effects of landscape on the population genomic variation of two bird species restricted to the highland forest enclaves of northeastern Brazil

Investigating the impact of landscape features on patterns of genetic variation is crucial to understand spatially dependent evolutionary processes. Here, we assess the population genomic variation of two bird species (Conopophaga cearae and Sclerurus cearensis) through the Caatinga moist forest enclaves in northeastern Brazil. To infer the evolutionary dynamics of bird populations through the Late Quaternary, we used genome-wide polymorphism data obtained from double-digestion restriction-site-associated DNA sequencing (ddRADseq), and integrated population structure analyses, historical demography models, paleodistribution modeling, and landscape genetics analyses. We found the population differentiation among enclaves to be significantly related to the geographic distance and historical resistance across the rugged landscape. The climate changes at the end of the Pleistocene to the Holocene likely triggered synchronic population decline in all enclaves for both species. Our findings revealed that both geographic distance and historical connectivity through highlands are important factors that can explain the current patterns of genetic variation. Our results further suggest that levels of population differentiation and connectivity cannot be explained purely on the basis of contemporary environmental conditions. By combining historical demographic analyses and niche modeling predictions in a historical framework, we provide strong evidence that climate fluctuations of the Quaternary promoted population differentiation and a high degree of temporal synchrony among population size changes in both species.

Comparative Study of Potential Habitats for Simulium qinghaiense (Diptera: Simuliidae) in the Huangshui River Basin, Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: An Analysis Using Four Ecological Niche Models and Optimized Approaches

The Huangshui River, a vital tributary in the upper reaches of the Yellow River within the eastern Qinghai-Tibet Plateau, is home to the endemic black fly species S. qinghaiense. In this study, we conducted a systematic survey of the distribution of the species in the Huangshui River basin, revealing its predominant presence along the river's main stem. Based on four ecological niche models-MaxEnt with parameter optimization; GARP; BIOCLIM; and DOMAIN-we conduct a comparative analysis; evaluating the accuracy of AUC and Kappa values. Our findings indicate that optimizing parameters significantly improves the MaxEnt model's predictive accuracy by reducing complexity and overfitting. Furthermore, all four models exhibit higher accuracy compared to a random model, with MaxEnt demonstrating the highest AUC and Kappa values (0.9756 and 0.8118, respectively), showcasing significant superiority over the other models (p < 0.05). Evaluation of predictions from the four models elucidates that potential areas of S. qinghaiense in the Huangshui River basin are primarily concentrated in the central and southern areas, with precipitation exerting a predominant influence. Building upon these results, we utilized the MaxEnt model to forecast changes in suitable areas and distribution centers during the Last Interglacial (LIG), Mid-Holocene (MH), and future periods under three climate scenarios. The results indicate significantly smaller suitable areas during LIG and MH compared to the present, with the center of distribution shifting southeastward from the Qilian Mountains to the central part of the basin. In the future, suitable areas under different climate scenarios are expected to contract, with the center of distribution shifting southeastward. These findings provide important theoretical references for monitoring, early warning, and control measures for S. qinghaiense in the region, contributing to ecological health assessment.

Differential distribution shifts in two subregions of East Asian subtropical evergreen broadleaved forests-a case of Magnoliaceae

Aim

East Asian subtropical evergreen broad-leaved forests (EBLFs) are composed of western and eastern subregions with different topographical and environmental conditions. The distribution shifts over time of plants in the two subregions are predicted to be different, but the difference has seldom been investigated.

Methods

Potential distributions of 53 Magnoliaceae species (22 in the western and 31 in the eastern subregion) during the last glacial maximum (LGM), present, and the 2070s were predicted using MaxEnt based on 58 environmental variables. The changes in the distribution range size and centroid over time were analyzed. Species-level potential habitats were overlaid to uncover species diversity distribution, and the distributions over time were overlaid to discover long-term refugia.

Results

At present, the potential distributions are significantly larger than those shown by the occurrence points. During the LGM, 20/22 species in the western subregion experienced increases in range size through downwards and southward migrations, while decreases in range size in the eastern subregion (27/31 species) were accompanied by northward and eastward migrations. In the future, range size declines and northward shifts will both be found; northwestward shifts will exist in most (20/22 species) species in the western subregion, while both northwest- and northeastward shifts will occur in the eastern subregion. The diversity hotspots experienced a slight southward shift in the past and upwards to the mountain region in the future in the western subregion; in the eastern subregion, shrinks occurred in eastern China in the past and shrinks were shown in all regions in the future. Long-term refugia-preserving diversity was found in the mountains across the entire EBLFs region.

Main conclusions

Significant differences in distribution shifts from past to present and similar distribution shifts from present to future are revealed in the two subregions. Species diversity in both subregions experienced no significant shifts from past to future, and Magnoliaceae plants could be preserved in mountainous regions throughout the EBLFs.

The owls are coming: positive effects of climate change in Northern ecosystems depend on grassland protection

Climate-driven migrations towards Northern latitudes are expected to reorganize biotic communities as result of range shift dynamics. However, the establishment of healthy populations of migrating species depends on habitat provision by receptor landscapes. Here, we ask if the rising temperatures and changes in precipitation regimes in western North America are likely to lead to an expansion of warm and dry-affiliated species, using the burrowing owl (Athene cunicularia) as a study case. This migratory species depends on grassland habitats for nesting and breeding, so we test for the effect of the lack of grasslands on the occupancy of future suitable environments. To estimate the burrowing owl's potential distribution, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) calibrated with climate and soil information and projected onto future scenarios of climate change (low versus high greenhouse gas emission). Then, we simulated environmental sorting using habitat filter masks derived from information on habitat use and forecasts of future land use change, focusing on grasslands as nesting and breeding habitat. We found that the burrowing owl could expand its geographic distribution by 3 to 10-fold towards Northern latitudes, especially under high-emission scenarios of climate change. However, nearly half of the suitable environments (up to 53,593 km2 of locations with suitable climate and soil) might not be covered by grasslands, due to conversion to agriculture and other human land uses which may prevent the establishment of breeding populations. Our results shed light on the pervasive effects of neglecting the preservation of grasslands across western North America, which could provide critically needed habitat for migrating species from lower latitudes. Enhancing and facilitating the colonization of novel species is a shift in the static paradigm of biodiversity conservation and a proactive measure for climate change adaptation.

Potentially suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change

Introduction

Goji berry (Lycium barbarum L.) is a famous edible and medicinal herb worldwide with considerable consumption. The recent cultivation of goji berries in the Daodi region was seriously reduced due to increased production costs and the influence of policy on preventing nongrain use of arable land in China. Consequently, production of Daodi goji berry was insufficient to meet market demands for high-quality medicinal materials. Searching for regions similar to the Daodi region was necessary.

Methods

The MaxEnt model was used to predicted the current and future potential regions suitable for goji berry in China based on the environmental characteristics of the Daodi region (including Zhongning County of Zhongwei prefecture-level city, and its surroundings), and the ArcGIS software was used to analyze the changes in its suitable region.

Results

The results showed that when the parameters were FC = LQHP and RM = 2.1, the MaxEnt model was optimal, and the AUC and TSS values were greater than 0.90. The mean temperature and precipitation of the coldest quarter were the most critical variables shaping the distribution of Daodi goji berries. Under current climate conditions, the suitable habitats of the Daodi goji berry were 45,973.88 km2, accounting for 0.48% of China's land area, which were concentrated in the central and western Ningxia Province (22,589.42 km2), and the central region of Gansu Province (18,787.07 km2) bordering western Ningxia. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable area was higher than that under current climate conditions and reached the maximum under RCP 6.0 (91,256.42 km2) in the 2050s and RCP 8.5 (82,459.17 km2) in the 2070s. The expansion regions were mainly distributed in the northeast of the current suitable ranges, and the distributional centroids were mainly shifted to the northeast. The moderately and highly suitable overlapping habitats were mainly distributed in Baiyin (7,241.75 km2), Zhongwei (6,757.81 km2), and Wuzhong (5, 236.87 km2) prefecture-level cities.

Discussion

In this stduy, MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to predict and analyze the suitable habitats of Daodi goji berry in China under climate change. Our results indicate that climate warming is conducive to cultivating Daodi goji berry and will not cause a shift in the Daodi region. The goji berry produced in Baiyin could be used to satisfy the demand for high-quality medicinal materials. This study addresses the insufficient supply and guides the cultivation of Daodi goji berry.

Genetic Structure and Population History of the Zaisan Toad-Headed Agama (Phrynocephalus melanurus) Inferred from Mitochondrial DNA

The agamid lizard Phrynocephalus melanurus is restricted to Northwest China (Dzungar Basin) and the adjacent Eastern Kazakhstan (Zaisan and Alakol basins). To elucidate the phylogeography of P. melanurus, we obtained the mitochondrial DNA COI segments of 175 sampled lizards from 44 localities across the whole distribution. Phylogenetic analyses revealed two main Clades comprising five geographically structured lineages (I, IIa, IIb1, IIb2, and IIb3) that fit an isolation-by-distance (IBD) model. The divergence from the most recent common ancestor was dated to ~1.87 million years ago (Ma). Demographic analyses demonstrated lineage-specific response to past climate change: stable population for Clade I, Subclade IIb1; past population expansion for IIb3 since 0.18 Ma, respectively. Bayesian phylogeographic diffusion analyses detected initial spreading at the Saur Mount vicinity, approximately 1.8 Ma. Historical species distribution model (SDM) projected expansion of the suitable habitat in the last interglacial and shift and contraction in the last glacial maximum and Holocene epochs. The SDM predicted a drastic reduction in suitable area throughout the range as a response to future climate change. Our findings suggest that the evolution of P. melanurus followed a parapatric divergence with subsequent dispersal and adaptation to cold and dry environments during the Quaternary. Overall, this work improves our understanding of the lineage diversification and population dynamics of P. melanurus, providing further insights into the evolutionary processes that occurred in Northwest China and adjacent Eastern Kazakhstan.

Habitat Suitability, Distribution Modelling and GAP Analysis of Przewalski's Gazelle Conservation

Although the population of Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii) has increased, this species is still threatened by a variety of risk factors, such as habitat loss and fragmentation, grassland fencing, grazing conflict, the segmentation of different populations, and declines in population genetic diversity. In order to determine the potential suitable habitat of Przewalski's gazelle and find a new suitable location for its conservation translocation, we used the MaxEnt model to predict the suitable habitats in Qinghai Province, Gansu Province, and the Ordos Plateau in Inner Mongolia and other regions with historical distribution records. On the basis of the MaxEnt model's prediction of the potential suitable habitat of Przewalski's gazelle, we used GAP analysis to determine the existing protection gaps and provide a new reference for the future protection of Przewalski's gazelle. We found that altitude, temperature, vegetation type, and distance from roads were the main environmental factors affecting the geographical distribution of Przewalski's gazelle. Most of the suitable habitat of Przewalski's gazelle is confined around Qinghai Lake. GAP analysis revealed that most of the suitable habitats of Przewalski's gazelle are not included in the established reserves, and Qinghai Lake National Nature Reserve only covers a small area around Qinghai Lake. The whole reserve only accounts for 7.11% of the area of the suitable habitat for Przewalski's gazelle and 15.79% of the area of the highly suitable habitat for Przewalski's gazelle. We suggest that conservation translocation for Przewalski's gazelle should be put on the agenda. It is necessary to consider reintroducing these gazelles into their potential suitable habitats as a feasible way of establishing new populations and saving this species.

Possibility of Wild Boar Harm Occurring in Five Provinces of Northwest China

With the implementation of ecological engineering projects and related policies in China, wild boar (Sus scrofa) populations have surged, leading to increasingly serious conflicts with humans. We evaluated their potential habitat changes from the perspective of environmental suitability. To elucidate the suitable habitat characteristics for wild boars, we obtained data from 79 sites in five provinces in northwest China using database retrieval, human-wildlife conflict (HWC) incident questionnaires, and document retrieval. Thus, 10 environmental variables with lower correlation were selected, and potentially suitable distribution areas for wild boars under the current climate scenario were predicted based on the maximum entropy model. These areas were superimposed with different land use types in different periods to explore habitat selection. Precipitation seasonality (26.40%), human footprint index (16.50%), and elevation (11.90%) were the main environmental factors affecting wild boar distribution. The areas with high potential suitability for wild boars were mainly in the southeast and northwest of the region (total area of 2.63 × 105 km2). The land use types in the high-suitability zones are mainly woodland and grassland with high coverage, canopy density, and cultivated land borders. This study provides a reference for the effective prevention of HWC and management of wild boars.

Increase of nesting habitat suitability for green turtles in a warming Mediterranean Sea

Climate change is reshaping global ecosystems at an unprecedented rate, with major impacts on biodiversity. Therefore, understanding how organisms can withstand change is key to identify priority conservation objectives. Marine ectotherms are being extremely impacted because their biology and phenology are directly related to temperature. Among these species, sea turtles are particularly problematic because they roam over both marine and terrestrial habitats throughout their life cycles. Focusing on green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in the Mediterranean Sea, we investigated the future potential changes of nesting grounds through time, assuming that marine turtles would shift their nesting locations. We modeled the current distribution of nesting grounds including both terrestrial and marine variables, and we projected the potential nesting distribution across the Mediterranean basin under alternative future greenhouse gas emission scenario (2000-2100). Our models show an increase in nesting probability in the western Mediterranean Sea, irrespective of the climate scenario we consider. Contrary to what is found in most global change studies, the worse the climate change scenario, the more suitable areas for green turtles will potentially increase. The most important predictors were anthropogenic variables, which negatively affect nesting probability, and sea surface temperature, positively linked to nesting probability, up to a maximum of 24-25 °C. The importance of the western Mediterranean beaches as potential nesting areas for sea turtles in the near future clearly call for a proactive conservation and management effort, focusing on monitoring actions (to document the potential range expansion) and threat detection.

An Integrated Ecological Niche Modelling Framework for Risk Mapping of Peste des Petits Ruminants Virus Exposure in African Buffalo (Syncerus caffer) in the Greater Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem

Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) is a highly contagious viral disease of small ruminants that threatens livelihoods and food security in developing countries and, in some cases, wild ungulate species conservation. The Greater Serengeti-Mara Ecosystem (GSME) encompasses one of the major wildlife populations of PPR virus (PPRV)-susceptible species left on earth, although no clinical disease has been reported so far. This study aimed to gain further knowledge about PPRV circulation in the GSME by identifying which factors predict PPRV seropositivity in African buffalo (Syncerus caffer). Following an ecological niche modeling framework to map host-pathogen distribution, two models of PPRV exposure and buffalo habitat suitability were performed using serological data and buffalo censuses. Western Maasai Mara National Reserve and Western Serengeti National Park were identified as high-risk areas for PPRV exposure in buffalo. Variables related to wildlife-livestock interaction contributed to the higher risk of PPRV seropositivity in buffalo, providing supportive evidence that buffalo acquire the virus through contact with infected livestock. These findings can guide the design of cost-effective PPRV surveillance using buffalo as a sentinel species at the identified high-risk locations. As more intensive studies have been carried out in Eastern GSME, this study highlights the need for investigating PPRV dynamics in Western GSME.

Worldwide comparison between the potential distribution of Rhipicephalus microplus (Acari: Ixodidae) under climate change scenarios

The cattle tick Rhipicephalus microplus (Acari: Ixodidae) has demonstrated its ability to increase its distribution raising spatially its importance as a vector for zoonotic hemotropic pathogens. In this study, a global ecological niche model of R. microplus was built in different scenarios using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP), Socio-Economic Pathway (SSP), and a climatic dataset to determine where the species could establish itself and thus affect the variability in the presentation of the hemotropic diseases they transmit. America, Africa and Oceania showed a higher probability for the presence of R. microplus in contrast to some countries in Europe and Asia in the ecological niche for the current period (1970-2000), but with the climate change, there was an increase in the ratio between the geographic range preserved between the RCP and SSP scenarios obtaining the greatest gain in the interplay of RCP4.5-SSP245. Our results allow to determine future changes in the distribution of the cattle tick according to the increase in environmental temperature and socio-economic development influenced by human development activities and trends; this work explores the possibility of designing integral maps between the vector and specific diseases.

Climate change effects on the distribution of yellow-breasted capuchin monkey (Sapajus xanthosternos (Wied-Neuwied, 1826))

The magnitude of recent climatic changes has no historical precedent and impacts biodiversity. Climatic changes may displace suitable habitats (areas with suitable climates), leading to global biodiversity decline. Primates are among the most affected groups. Most primates depend on forests and contribute to their maintenance. We evaluated the potential effects of climatic change on the distribution of Sapajus xanthosternos, a critically endangered primate whose geographical range encompasses three Brazilian biomes. We evaluated changes between baseline (1970-2000) and future (2081-2100) climates using multivariate analysis. Then, we compared current and future (2100) climatic suitability projections for the species. The climatic changes predicted throughout the S. xanthosternos range differed mostly longitudinally, with higher temperature increases in the west and higher precipitation reductions in the east. Climatic suitability for S. xanthosternos is predicted to decline in the future. Areas with highest current climatic suitability occur as a narrow strip in the eastern part of the geographic range throughout the latitudinal range. In the future, areas with highest values are projected to be located as an even narrower strip in the eastern part of the geographical range. A small portion of forest remnants larger than 150 ha located in the east has larger current and future suitability values. At this large scale, the spatial heterogeneity of the climate effects reinforce the importance of maintenance of current populations in different areas of the range. The possibility that phenotypic plasticity helps primates cope with reduced climatic suitability may be mediated by habitat availability, quality, and connectivity.

Impacts of climate change and habitat loss on the distribution of the endangered crested capuchin monkey (Sapajus robustus)

The crested capuchin monkey (Sapajus robustus) is endemic to the Atlantic Forest and its transition areas within Cerrado in Brazil. The species is currently threatened by habitat loss and has been classified as endangered by the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species since 2015. We used ecological niche models built with MaxEnt to predict the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of this species. The models were projected onto the reference climate, considering six climate scenarios (three Global Climate Models and two Representative Concentration Pathways) from IPCC for 2050 and 2070. We showed that while the amount of suitable area is expected to change little across the species' range in most evaluated climate scenarios, climatic conditions may significantly deteriorate by 2070 in the pessimistic scenario, especially in currently warmer and dryer areas to the west. As seen on other capuchin monkeys, the potential use of tools by crested capuchins may increase the chances of the species adaptation to novel harsher environmental conditions. The major negative impacts across the species range also include habitat loss and fragmentation so that the conservation of the species relies on the protection of the forest remnants in the center of its distribution, which can harbor populations of the species in current and future climate scenarios.

Meta-analysis reveals less sensitivity of non-native animals than natives to extreme weather worldwide

Extreme weather events (EWEs; for example, heatwaves, cold spells, storms, floods and droughts) and non-native species invasions are two major threats to global biodiversity and are increasing in both frequency and consequences. Here we synthesize 443 studies and apply multilevel mixed-effects metaregression analyses to compare the responses of 187 non-native and 1,852 native animal species across terrestrial, freshwater and marine ecosystems to different types of EWE. Our results show that marine animals, regardless of whether they are non-native or native, are overall insensitive to EWEs, except for negative effects of heatwaves on native mollusks, corals and anemone. By contrast, terrestrial and freshwater non-native animals are only adversely affected by heatwaves and storms, respectively, whereas native animals negatively respond to heatwaves, cold spells and droughts in terrestrial ecosystems and are vulnerable to most EWEs except cold spells in freshwater ecosystems. On average, non-native animals displayed low abundance in terrestrial ecosystems, and decreased body condition and life history traits in freshwater ecosystems, whereas native animals displayed declines in body condition, life history traits, abundance, distribution and recovery in terrestrial ecosystems, and community structure in freshwater ecosystems. By identifying areas with high overlap between EWEs and EWE-tolerant non-native species, we also provide locations where native biodiversity might be adversely affected by their joint effects and where EWEs might facilitate the establishment and/or spread of non-native species under continuing global change.

Approximate Bayesian computation and ecological niche models elucidate the demographic history and current fragmented population distribution of a Korean endemic shrub

Climatic fluctuations and geological events since the LGM are believed to have significantly impacted the population size, distribution, and mobility of many species that we observe today. In this paper, we determined the processes driving the phylogeographic structure of the Korean endemic white forsythia by combining the use of genome-wide SNPs and predicting paleoclimatic habitats during the LGM (21 kya), Early Holocene (10 kya), Mid-Holocene (6 kya), and Late Holocene (3 kya). Using a maximum of 1897 SNPs retrieved from 124 samples across nine wild populations, five environmental predictors, and the species' natural occurrence records, we aimed to infer the species' demographic history and reconstruct its possible paleodistributions with the use of approximate Bayesian computation and ecological niche models, respectively. Under this integrated framework, we found strong evidence for patterns of range shift and expansion, and population divergence events from the onset of the Holocene, resulting in the formation of its five distinct genetic units. The most highly supported model inferred that after the split of an ancestral population into the southern group and a larger central metapopulation lineage, the latter gave rise to the eastern and northern clusters, before finally dividing into two sub-central groups. While the use of molecular data allowed us to identify and refine the (phylo)genetic relationships of the species' lineages and populations, the use of ecological data helped us infer a past LGM refugium and the directions of post-glacial range dynamics. The time frames of these demographic events were shown to be congruent with climatic and geological events that affected the central Korean Peninsula during these periods. These findings gave us a better understanding of the consequences of past spatiotemporal factors that may have resulted in the current fragmented population distribution of this endangered plant.

Invasion risks presented by Gonopsis affinis and the use of Trissolcus mitsukurii as a biological control agent under present and future climate conditions

BACKGROUND

Gonopsis affinis (Uhler) is a stinkbug that represents a significant threat to the production of rice (Oryza sativa L.), sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum L.) and eulalia (Miscanthus sinensis (Andersson)), and has been listed as a sugarcane pest in Japan. Trissolcus mitsukurii Ashmead is an egg parasitoid of G. affinis. To determine the potential of T. mitsukurii to be a biological control agent for G. affinis, we aim to predict the current and future areas of suitable habitat for these two species and their overlap with areas of present crop production. We developed MaxEnt models using two different variable selection methods and compared the two for T. mitsukurii with a CLIMEX model.

RESULTS

The results showed extensive suitable areas for G. affinis under current climate conditions in East Asia, West Africa, Madagascar, and South America. These ranges overlap with areas currently being used for the production of the three crops in question. More than half overlap with areas of suitable habitat for T. mitsukurii. The most critical environmental variable determining habitat suitability for G. affinis was showed to be precipitation of warmest quarter, whilst for T. mitsukurii it was minimum temperature of the coldest month.

CONCLUSION

Based on our assessment we recommend the immediate implementation of monitoring and invasion prevention measures for G. affinis in southwest China, the Malay Archipelago and West Africa. We suggest that T. mitsukurii be considered for use as a biological control agent in East Asia, Madagascar, Florida and Brazil in the case of future invasions by G. affinis. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry.

Modeling potential distribution and above-ground biomass of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forests in the Inner Anatolian Region, Türkiye

Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) holds a substantial position as a tree species designated for biomass energy within European forests, covering a significant part of Türkiye's forests. We used the machine learning technique, namely, maximum entropy (MaxEnt), to estimate the suitable areas for Scots pine and to investigate its potential future distribution under various climate change scenarios in Inner Anatolian Region, Türkiye. The distribution data of Scots pine was utilized, and a set of 20 variables was chosen from spectral, topographic, and bioclimatic datasets to train the MaxEnt model. A map depicting the potential distribution of Scots pine in the area was generated, and alterations in its spatial distribution under SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate change scenarios were predicted. The results showed that the most effective factors for the distribution of Scots pine in the region were normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), Red band of the imagery, and Bio19 variables, and the contribution percentages were 45.6%, 18.5%, and 18.1%, respectively. Current conditions have indicated that 81.11% of the region is not suitable for Scots pine. Highly suitable areas for Scots pine constituted 0.88% of the total area in the east and southeast parts of the region. Considering the SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, it has been determined that there may be a partial increase in highly suitable areas. The above-ground biomass (AGB) data generated based on potential distribution areas were predicted between 0.04 and 168.76 t ha-1, and the areas with dense biomass over 120 t ha-1 were identified in the west, north, and northeast parts of the region. While actual AGB of Scots pine was 6.92 MT, its potential AGB was estimated 125.93 MT in total area. The difference may well be attributed to the wide potential distribution of Scots pine stands in the area apart from the current forest lands. Nevertheless, this research contributes to the holistic management of forests and provides substantial values for formulating well-suited silvicultural interventions, developing sustainable forest management strategies, and furthering research aimed at estimating biomass reserves.

Classification and distribution of functional groups of birds and mammals in Mexico

There has been a recent exponential growth in the study of functional trait ecology. Nonetheless, the study of functional traits and functional groups has been limited for terrestrial vertebrates. We conducted a classification update of functional groups (FG) of birds and mammals in Mexico, and determined the distribution patterns of FG species richness in different ecosystems nationwide. We selected six functional traits (feeding habit, locomotion, feeding substrate and technique, activity period, seasonality, and body size) obtained for 987 and 496 species of birds and mammals, respectively. A cophenetic correlation analyses resulted in values of 0.82 for the bird species dendrogram, and 0.79 for the mammal species dendrogram showing that the structures adequately reflected the similarity between observations. We obtained 52 FG for birds, assembled into 9 broader groups based on their feeding habits (16 invertivores, 6 carnivores: 5 herbivores, 9 aquatic vertivore/invertivore, 5 granivores, 1 scavenger, 3 nectarivores, 4 frugivores, and 3 omnivores). We obtained 35 FG for mammals, assembled into 9 broader groups based on their feeding habits (4 granivores, 10 herbivores, 1 nectarivore, 4 frugivores, 8 invertivores, 3 omnivores, 2 aquatic vertivore/invertivore, 1 hematophagous, and 2 carnivores). Overall, the distribution of FG species richness for birds and mammals gradually increased from the Nearctic to the Neotropical region, following a typical latitudinal species richness pattern. Few FG of migratory birds, and FG of granivore and herbivore mammals showed more species in the Nearctic and in the transitional regions. Our study provides a baseline for identifying ecological functions of species of birds and mammals in different ecosystems in Mexico, and contributes to understand the relationship between species diversity, community structure and ecosystem functioning. Identifying spatial patterns of functional trait diversity is important as biodiversity loss has a negative impact on ecosystem functioning and provision of environmental services.