Estimating the impact of better management of glycaemic control in adults with Type 1 and Type 2 diabetes on the number of clinical complications and the associated financial benefit

Progression from Prediabetes to Diabetes in a Diverse U.S. Population: A Machine Learning Model

Objective: To date, there are no widely implemented machine learning (ML) models that predict progression from prediabetes to diabetes. Addressing this knowledge gap would aid in identifying at-risk patients within this heterogeneous population who may benefit from targeted treatment and management in order to preserve glucose metabolism and prevent adverse outcomes. The objective of this study was to utilize readily available laboratory data to train and test the performance of ML-based predictive risk models for progression from prediabetes to diabetes. Methods: The study population was composed of laboratory information services data procured from a large U.S. outpatient laboratory network. The retrospective dataset was composed of 15,029 adults over a 5-year period with initial hemoglobin A1C (A1C) values between 5.0% and 6.4%. ML models were developed using random forest survival methods. The ground truth outcome was progression to A1C values indicative of diabetes (i.e., ≥6.5%) within 5 years. Results: The prediabetes risk classifier model accurately predicted A1C ≥6.5% within 5 years and achieved an area under the receiver-operator characteristic curve of 0.87. The most important predictors of progression from prediabetes to diabetes were initial A1C, initial serum glucose, A1C slope, serum glucose slope, initial HDL, HDL slope, age, and sex. Conclusions: Leveraging readily obtainable laboratory data, our ML risk classifier accurately predicts elevation in A1C associated with progression from prediabetes to diabetes. Although prospective studies are warranted, the results support the clinical utility of the model to improve timely recognition, risk stratification, and optimal management for patients with prediabetes.

Examining the Impact of Structural Uncertainty Across 10 Type 2 Diabetes Models: Results From the 2022 Mount Hood Challenge

OBJECTIVES

The Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge Network aimed to examine the impact of model structural uncertainty on the estimated cost-effectiveness of interventions for type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

Ten independent modeling groups completed a blinded simulation exercise to estimate the cost-effectiveness of 3 interventions in 2 type 2 diabetes populations. Modeling groups were provided with a common baseline population, cost and utility values associated with different model health states, and instructions regarding time horizon and discounting. We collated the results to identify variation in predictions of net monetary benefit (NMB) and the drivers of those differences.

RESULTS

Overall, modeling groups agreed which interventions had a positive NMB (ie, were cost-effective), Although estimates of NMB varied substantially-by up to £23 696 for 1 intervention. Variation was mainly driven through differences in risk equations for complications of diabetes and their implementation between models. The number of modeled health states was also a significant predictor of NMB.

CONCLUSIONS

This exercise demonstrates that structural uncertainty between different health economic models affects cost-effectiveness estimates. Although it is reassuring that a decision maker would likely reach similar conclusions on which interventions were cost-effective using most models, the range in numerical estimates generated across different models would nevertheless be important for price-setting negotiations with intervention developers. Minimizing the impact of structural uncertainty on healthcare decision making therefore remains an important priority. Model registries, which record and compare the impact of structural assumptions, offer one potential avenue to improve confidence in the robustness of health economic modeling.

Estimation of the direct health and indirect societal costs of diabetes in the UK using a cost of illness model

AIMS

The direct cost of diabetes to the UK health system was estimated at around £10 billion in 2012. This analysis updates that estimate using more recent and accurate data sources.

METHODS

A pragmatic review of relevant data sources for UK nations was conducted, including population-level data sets and published literature, to generate estimates of costs separately for Type 1, Type 2 and gestational diabetes. A comprehensive cost framework, developed in collaboration with experts, was used to create a population-based cost of illness model. The key driver of the analysis was prevalence of diabetes and its complications. Estimates were made of the excess costs of diagnosis, treatment and diabetes-related complications compared with the general UK population. Estimates of the indirect costs of diabetes focused on productivity losses due to absenteeism and premature mortality.

RESULTS

The direct costs of diabetes in 2021/22 for the UK were estimated at £10.7 billion, of which just over 40% related to diagnosis and treatment, with the rest relating to the excess costs of complications. Indirect costs were estimated at £3.3 billion.

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes remains a considerable cost burden in the UK, and the majority of those costs are still spent on potentially preventable complications. Although rates of some complications are reducing, prevalence continues to increase and effective approaches to primary and secondary prevention continue to be needed. Improvements in data capture, data quality and reporting, and further research on the human and financial implications of increasing incidence of Type 2 diabetes in younger people are recommended.

Current Position of Gliclazide and Sulfonylureas in the Contemporary Treatment Paradigm for Type 2 Diabetes: A Scoping Review

The increasing burden of type 2 diabetes (T2D), in relation to alarming rise in the prevalence; challenges in the diagnosis, prevention, and treatment; as well as the substantial impact of disease on longevity and quality of life, is a major concern in healthcare worldwide. Sulfonylureas (SUs) have been a cornerstone of T2D pharmacotherapy for over 60 years as oral antidiabetic drugs (OADs), while the newer generation SUs, such as gliclazide modified release (MR), are known to be associated with low risk of hypoglycemia in addition to the cardiovascular neutrality. This scoping review aimed to specifically address the current position of gliclazide MR among other SUs in the contemporary treatment paradigm for T2D and to provide a practical guidance document to assist clinicians in using gliclazide MR in real-life clinical practice. The main topics addressed in this paper include the role of early and sustained glycemic control and use of SUs in T2D management, the properties of gliclazide MR in relation to its effectiveness and safety, the use of gliclazide therapy in special populations, and the place of SUs as a class and gliclazide MR specifically in the current T2D treatment algorithm.

An Effectiveness Study of a Primary Care-embedded Clinical Pharmacist-Led Intervention Among Patients With Diabetes and Medicaid Coverage

Objective: Examine the impact of a primary care-embedded clinical pharmacist-led intervention (UCMyRx) on hemoglobin A1C and blood pressure control, relative to usual care, among patients with Type 2 diabetes (TD2) and Medicaid, in a large healthcare system. Methods: We used data extracted from the Electronic Health Records system and a Difference-In-Differences study design with a 2:1 propensity-matched comparison group to evaluate the impact of UCMyRx on HbA1c and systolic blood pressure among patients with TD2 and Medicaid, relative to usual care. Results: Having at least one UCMyRx clinical pharmacist visit was associated with a significant reduction in HbA1c; (-.27%, P-value= .03) but no impact on SBP. We do not find differential UCMyRx effects on HbA1c or SBP among the subpopulations with baseline HbA1C ≥9% or SBP ≥150 mmHg, respectively. In Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI)-stratified analyses we found stronger UCMyRx effects on HbA1C (-.47%, P-value< .02) among the CCI tercile with the lowest comorbidity score (CC1 ≤ 5). Significant UCMyRx effects are only observed among the subpopulation of Medicaid beneficiaries without Medicare (-.35%, P-value= .02). Conclusions: The UCMyRx intervention is a useful strategy for improving HbA1c control among patients with TD2 and Medicaid.

Case Report: Abruptio placentae and epileptic seizure after occurrence of perinatal hyperglycaemia in woman with gestational diabetes mellitus and hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis

Hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis seldom occurs in the second trimester of pregnancy with gestational diabetes mellitus. For these patients, the existing knowledge on concomitant hyperglycemia is not sufficient. We report a case of abruptio placentae and epileptic seizure following perinatal hyperglycaemia in woman with gestational diabetes mellitus and hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis. The occurrence of abruptio placentae and epileptic seizure may be associated with concomitant hyperglycemia, and the epileptic seizure was terminated after she underwent treatment with insulin. We should pay more attention to the adverse effects of perinatal hyperglycemia and continue to give appropriate insulin treatment even if patients have passed the acute phase of hypertriglyceridemia-induced acute pancreatitis.

Healthcare Resource Utilization in Controlled Versus Uncontrolled Adults Living With Type 1 Diabetes in the South African Public Healthcare Sector

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to understand the cost implications of managing people living with type 1 diabetes mellitus in the South African public healthcare system.

METHODS

A multicenter, noninterventional retrospective chart review study was performed. Data on healthcare resource consumption, demographics, risk factors, clinical history, and acute events were collected. Direct medical costs were collected over a 1-year period, stratified by controlled versus uncontrolled patients. In addition, the costs in people with controlled (glycated hemoglobin < 7%) versus uncontrolled glycated hemoglobin (≥ 7%) at time horizons of 1, 5, 10, and 25 years were modeled using the IQVIA Core Diabetes Model.

RESULTS

The costs based on the retrospective chart review were $630 versus $1012 (controlled versus uncontrolled population). The modeled costs at various time horizons were as follows: at 1 year, $900 versus $1331; at 5 years, $4163 versus $6423; at 10 years, $7759 versus $16 481; and at 25 years, $16 969 versus $66 268. The largest cost in the controlled population was severe hypoglycemia requiring nonmedical assistance, severe hypoglycemia requiring medical assistance, and treatment costs. In the uncontrolled population, the largest cost was the cost of diabetic ketoacidosis, severe hypoglycemia requiring nonmedical assistance, severe hypoglycemia requiring medical assistance, and foot complications.

CONCLUSIONS

Strict glycemic control reduces healthcare resource use overall. Patients in the controlled group still experienced high resource use related to hypoglycemic events. The introduction of a structured patient education program and analog insulins may result in less episodes of hypoglycemia and potential cost savings.

Improvements in Glycemic Outcomes in 4738 Children, Adolescents, and Adults with Type 1 Diabetes Initiating a Tubeless Insulin Management System

INTRODUCTION

Despite recent advances in diabetes technology, most people living with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D) are unable to meet glycemic targets. Real-world evidence can provide insight into outcomes achieved with specific treatment devices when used in clinical practice. The aim of this study was to analyze real-world outcomes collected from a large cohort of people living with T1D and initiating treatment with the Omnipod DASH System.

METHODS

In this retrospective observational study, real-world outcomes were analyzed from a database of information collected from people with T1D initiating the Omnipod DASH System. Information in the database was either taken directly from the patient's medical record or self-reported if medical records were unavailable. The primary outcome was change in glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) from baseline (before initiation) to 3 months after initiation. Secondary outcomes were changes in total daily dose of insulin (TDD) and self-reported frequency of hypoglycemic events (< 70 mg/dL). Results are separated for the adult (≥ 18 years, N = 3341) and pediatric (< 18 years, N = 1397) cohorts.

RESULTS

The change in HbA1c from baseline was  - 0.9 ± 1.6% ( - 10 ± 18 mmol/mol; p < 0.0001) in adults and   - 0.9 ± 2.0% ( - 10 ± 22 mmol/mol; p < 0.0001) in the pediatric cohort. For those previously using multiple daily injections, HbA1c decreased by  - 1.0 ± 1.7% ( - 11 ± 19 mmol/mol) in adults and   - 1.0 ± 2.1% ( - 11 ± 23 mmol/mol) in the pediatric cohort (both p < 0.0001). Hypoglycemic events decreased in adults from 2.9 to 1.3 episodes per week ( - 1.6 ± 3.2 events/week; p < 0.0001), and in the pediatric cohort from 2.8 to 1.5 episodes per week ( - 1.3 ± 2.7 events/week; p < 0.0001). In adults, TDD decreased by 19.9% (p < 0.0001), and it remained stable in the pediatric cohort (p > 0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Real-world outcomes from this large cohort of people initiating therapy with the Omnipod DASH System showed significant improvement in HbA1c and a substantial reduction in hypoglycemic events after 3 months of use.

Determining Dietary Patterns to Recommend for Type 2 Diabetes: An Umbrella Review

Some specific dietary patterns improve glycaemic levels and cardiovascular risk factors better than others. We aimed to identify the most effective dietary patterns using a food-focused approach to improve blood glucose management (primary outcome) and cardiovascular risk factors (secondary outcome) in people with type 2 diabetes. An umbrella review was conducted comparing dietary patterns for the management of these outcomes. Studies published between 2012 and 2022 were identified using PubMed Central, ProQuest, Web of Science, and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews. Thirty systematic reviews met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-two of thirty reviews quantitated (via meta-analyses of over 212 randomised control trials) the effect size of different dietary patterns. Twelve reviews found Low-carbohydrate (LC), Mediterranean (M), Plant-based (PB), and/or Low-glycaemic Index (LGI) diets reduced HbA1c moderately more than control diets (typically a high-carbohydrate, low-fat diet) (i.e., LC: -0.1 to -0.5%; M: -0.3 to -0.5%; PB: -0.2 to -0.4%; LGI -0.2 to -0.5%; all p-value < 0.01). We conclude that Low-carbohydrate, Mediterranean, Plant-based, and Low-glycaemic Index dietary patterns are all clinically effective for people with type 2 diabetes as alternatives to high-carbohydrate, low-fat diets typically used for managing glycaemic levels and CVD risk. However, quality evidence about the sustainability of effects and safety remains limited, warranting future research.

Family-integrated diabetes education for individuals with diabetes in South-west Nigeria

Objectives

This study aimed to determine the effects of family-integrated diabetes education on diabetes knowthe ledge of patients and family members, as well as its impact on patients' glycosylated haemoglobin (A1C).

Design

The design was a two-group Pretest Posttest quasi-experimental.

Setting

The study took place at the diabetes clinics of two tertiary hospitals in southwestern Nigeria.

Participants

People Living with Diabetes (PLWD) and family members aged 18 years and over and without cognitive impairment were placed, as clusters, into either a control group (CG) or an intervention group (IG) The CG comprised 88 patients and 88 family members while IG comprised 82 patients and 82 family members. Of these, 78 and 74 patients completed the study in CG and IG, respectively.

Interventions

PLWD in IG along with their family members were given an educational intervention on diabetes management and collaborative support with an information booklet provided. This was followed by three (3) complimentary Short Messaging Service (SMS).

Main outcome measures

A1C and diabetes knowledge.

Results

Over half (52.4%) and about a fifth (18.2%) of family members and patients, respectively, had never had diabetes education. There was a statistically significant increase in the knowledge of patients and family members in IG. Unlike CG, the A1C of patients in IG improved significantly at three and six-month post-intervention, (p<0.01). Regression showed an independent effect of family members' knowledge on IG's A1C.

Conclusions

Improved family members' diabetes knowledge positively impacted patients' glucose level. There is a need to integrate family members into diabetes care better.

Funding

African Doctoral Dissertation Research Fellowship (ADDRF) award offered by the Africa Population and Health Research Center (APHRC) in partnership with the International Development Research Centre.

Long-Term Cost Effectiveness of Oral Semaglutide Versus Empagliflozin and Sitagliptin for the Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes in the Swedish Setting

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to assess the cost effectiveness of oral semaglutide versus other oral glucose-lowering drugs for the management of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Sweden.

METHODS

The Swedish Institute for Health Economics Diabetes Cohort Model was used to assess the cost effectiveness of oral semaglutide 14 mg versus empagliflozin 25 mg and oral semaglutide 14 mg versus sitagliptin 100 mg, using data from the head-to-head PIONEER 2 and 3 trials, respectively, in which these treatments were added to metformin (± sulphonylurea). Base-case and scenario analyses were conducted. Robustness was evaluated with deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

In the base-case analyses, greater initial lowering of glycated haemoglobin levels with oral semaglutide versus empagliflozin and oral semaglutide versus sitagliptin, respectively, resulted in reduced incidences of micro- and macrovascular complications and was associated with lower costs of complications and indirect costs. Treatment costs were higher for oral semaglutide, resulting in higher total lifetime costs than with empagliflozin (Swedish Krona [SEK] 1,245,570 vs. 1,210,172) and sitagliptin (SEK1,405,789 vs. 1,377,381). Oral semaglutide was shown to be cost effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of SEK239,001 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) compared with empagliflozin and SEK120,848 per QALY compared with sitagliptin, from a payer perspective. ICERs were lower at SEK191,721 per QALY compared with empagliflozin and SEK95,234 per QALY compared with sitagliptin from a societal perspective. Results were similar in scenario analyses that incorporated cardiovascular effects, and also in sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSIONS

In a Swedish setting, oral semaglutide was cost effective compared with empagliflozin and sitagliptin for patients with T2D inadequately controlled on oral glucose-lowering drugs.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT02863328 (PIONEER 2; registered 11 August 2016) and NCT02607865 (PIONEER 3; registered 18 November 2015).

Development of an information system and mobile application for the care of type 2 diabetes patients at the primary care level for the health sector in Mexico: study protocol for a randomized controlled, open-label trial

Background

Providing optimal care for type 2 diabetes (DM2) patients remains a challenge for all healthcare systems. Patients often encounter various barriers in adhering to self-management programs due to lack of knowledge and understanding of self-care activities, lack of individualized and coordinated care, inconvenient and costly education sessions, and poor patient-provider communication. Mobile technologies such as cell phones/smartphones, handheld tablets, and other wireless devices offer new and exciting opportunities for addressing some of these challenges. The purpose of this study is to compare a diabetes management strategy using an information board and a mobile application versus standard care in patients with uncontrolled DM2.

Method

The SANENT (Sistema de Análisis de Enfermedades No Transmisibles) trial is a primary care-based, prospective, two-arm, randomized controlled, open-label, blinded-endpoint study. We aim to recruit 1440 DM2 patients during a period of 6 months until the requested number of participants has been achieved. The total length of the intervention will be 1 year. Both men and women treated for DM2 with an HbA1c > 8.5% and ≥ 20 years of age are eligible to participate in the study. The primary outcome of the study is improved diabetes control measured by changes in HbA1c in the study participants. HbA1c will be measured at baseline, 3-month, 6-month, 9-month, and 12-month follow-up visits in all participants. The main analysis will be based on the intention-to-treat principle. The primary endpoint of the study will be the change in HbA1C within the groups and the differences between the groups. This will be assessed by a repeated measurement approach based on mixed models which contain both fixed effects and random effects.

Discussion

The overall goal of this project is to contribute to the evidence for the use of mobile technology to improve the treatment and regulation of poorly controlled DM2 patients living in Mexico. Our proposed project will show how mobile health technology tools can be used in the treatment of patients with uncontrolled DM2 in primary health care in a Latin American population, and particularly how they could help diabetes patients take better care of themselves.

Trial registration

ClinicalTrials.gov, US National Institutes of Health NCT04974333. Prospectively registered on July 13, 2021. Protocol version number 1, dated August 15th, 2021.

Systematic review and meta-analysis of diabetes specialist delivered insulin education for adults with type 2 diabetes in outpatient settings

OBJECTIVE

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of insulin education for people with type 2 diabetes to assess its effectiveness in improving glycaemic levels.

METHODS

We searched the following online databases from the earliest record to 17 February 2020: MEDLINE, EMBASE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, Web of science, Cochrane Library and https://clinicaltrials.gov. Data was extracted on publication status, participants' characteristics at baseline, intervention and control group, study design, and data for primary and secondary outcomes, change in HbA1c(%), change in weight (Kilogram). The review was registered with international prospective register of systematic reviews registration (PROSPERO):CRD42020167769.

RESULTS

Eighteen papers were included in the systematic review. In the meta-analysis there was a small statistically significant improvement in HbA1c (0.39% points/4.4 mmol/mol reduction) in the insulin education group compared to control conditions (N = 10 studies, n = 3307 participants, SMD = -0.22, 95% CI = -0.34, -0.10, I² = 66% p = 0.002). There was a small non-significant increase in weight (0.54 Kg) in the insulin education group compared to control conditions (N = 6 studies, n = 470 participants, SMD = 0.03, 95% CI = -0.10, 0.17, I² = 0.0%, p = 0.82). Quality of evidence was rated low to very low.

CONCLUSIONS

Enhanced insulin education delivered by diabetes specialists is potentially more effective than standard care. Further research is required to reach robust conclusions.

FreeStyle Libre Flash Glucose Monitoring system for people with type 1 diabetes in the UK: a budget impact analysis

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to estimate the budget impact of increased uptake of the FreeStyle Libre Flash Glucose Monitoring system in people with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) in the UK.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A budget impact model was developed, applying real-world data collected in the Association of British Clinical Diabetologists (ABCD) FreeStyle Libre Nationwide Audit. Costs of diabetes glucose monitoring in a T1DM population (n=1790) using self-monitoring of blood glucose (SMBG) or the FreeStyle Libre system were compared with a scenario with increased use of the FreeStyle Libre system.

RESULTS

The ABCD audit demonstrates FreeStyle Libre system use reduces diabetes-related resource utilization. The cost analysis found that higher acquisition costs are offset by healthcare costs avoided (difference £168 per patient per year (PPPY)). Total costs were £1116 PPPY with FreeStyle Libre system compared with £948 PPPY with SMBG. In an average-sized UK local health economy, increasing FreeStyle Libre system uptake from 30% to 50% increased costs by 3.4% (£1 787 345-£1 847 618) and when increased to 70% increased by a further 3.3%.

CONCLUSION

Increased uptake of the FreeStyle Libre system in the T1DM population marginally increases the cost to UK health economies and offers many system benefits.

Food as medicine? Exploring the impact of providing healthy foods on adherence and clinical and economic outcomes

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Long-term clinical and cost-effectiveness of collaborative care in people with uncontrolled type 2 diabetes mellitus and polypharmacy: A multicenter randomized controlled trial

AIMS

This study examined the effectiveness of a collaborative care model on clinical and humanistic outcomes, medical cost, productivity loss, and its cost-effectiveness in managing uncontrolled Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM).

METHODS

A randomized controlled study was conducted in two outpatient health institutions in Singapore. Patients aged above 21 years with HbA1c > 7% and polypharmacy were included. Eligible patients were randomized into the intervention (collaborative care) and control (usual care) arms.

RESULTS

A total of 255 patients were included in the analysis. Compared to the control arm, the intervention arm achieved significantly greater glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) reduction (mean difference: 0.25, 95%CI: [0.001, 0.50], p = 0.049) and quality-adjusted life year (QALY) (+0.011, 95%CI: [0.003, 0.019], p = 0.011) at 12 months. The costs per additional HbA1c and QALY improvements over one year were $40.52 and $920.91 respectively. Activity impairment was lower in the intervention group both at 6 months (12.7% vs 19.0%; p = 0.022) and at 12 months (6.7% vs 14.0%; p = 0.008).

CONCLUSIONS

The collaborative care model achieved earlier HbA1c reduction and reduced patients' activity impairment without decreasing work productivity or increasing medical costs. This intervention is cost-effective for improving glycemic control and quality of life in patients with T2DM.

Monitoring of blood glucose levels, ketones and insulin bolus advice using 4SURE products and app-based technology

With more people being diagnosed with diabetes and requiring insulin therapy as they live longer, an increasing number of individuals are needing access to blood and ketone monitoring that is simple to use and provides accurate results. Having access to a bolus advisor is equally important in order for people with diabetes to calculate accurate insulin doses based on the foods that they are eating. The use of app-based technology for healthcare purposes has increased over recent years and now includes the Diabetes:M application that can be used in conjunction with the 4SURE smart meters with no additional cost to the individual.

Cost-Utility of an Online Education Platform and Diabetes Personal Health Record: Analysis Over Ten Years

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

My Diabetes My Way (MDMW) is Scotland's interactive website and mobile app for people with diabetes and their caregivers. It contains multimedia resources for diabetes education and offers access to electronic personal health records. This study aims to assess the cost-utility of MDMW compared with routine diabetes care in people with type 2 diabetes who do not use insulin.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Analysis used the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model 2. Clinical parameters of MDMW users (n = 2576) were compared with a matched cohort of individuals receiving routine care alone (n = 11 628). Matching criteria: age, diabetes duration, sex, and socioeconomic status. Impact on life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs of treatment and complications were simulated over ten years, including a 10% sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

MDMW cohort: 1670 (64.8%) men; average age 64.3 years; duration of diabetes 5.5 years. 906 (35.2%) women: average age 61.6 years; duration 4.7 years. The cumulative mean QALY (95% CI) gain: 0.054 (0.044-0.062) years. Mean difference in cost: -£118.72 (-£150.16 to -£54.16) over ten years. Increasing MDMW costs (10%): -£50.49 (-£82.24-£14.14). Decreasing MDMW costs (10%): -£186.95 (-£218.53 to -£122.51).

CONCLUSIONS

MDMW is "dominant" over usual care (cost-saving and life improving) in supporting self-management in people with type 2 diabetes not treated with insulin. Wider use may result in significant cost savings through delay or reduction of long-term complications and improved QALYs in Scotland and other countries. MDMW may be among the most cost-effective interventions currently available to support diabetes.

Development and validation of a machine learning-augmented algorithm for diabetes screening in community and primary care settings: A population-based study

BACKGROUND

Opportunely screening for diabetes is crucial to reduce its related morbidity, mortality, and socioeconomic burden. Machine learning (ML) has excellent capability to maximize predictive accuracy. We aim to develop ML-augmented models for diabetes screening in community and primary care settings.

METHODS

8425 participants were involved from a population-based study in Hubei, China since 2011. The dataset was split into a development set and a testing set. Seven different ML algorithms were compared to generate predictive models. Non-laboratory features were employed in the ML model for community settings, and laboratory test features were further introduced in the ML+lab models for primary care. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), area under the precision-recall curve (auPR), and the average detection costs per participant of these models were compared with their counterparts based on the New China Diabetes Risk Score (NCDRS) currently recommended for diabetes screening.

RESULTS

The AUC and auPR of the ML model were 0·697and 0·303 in the testing set, seemingly outperforming those of NCDRS by 10·99% and 64·67%, respectively. The average detection cost of the ML model was 12·81% lower than that of NCDRS with the same sensitivity (0·72). Moreover, the average detection cost of the ML+FPG model is the lowest among the ML+lab models and less than that of the ML model and NCDRS+FPG model.

CONCLUSION

The ML model and the ML+FPG model achieved higher predictive accuracy and lower detection costs than their counterpart based on NCDRS. Thus, the ML-augmented algorithm is potential to be employed for diabetes screening in community and primary care settings.

Eight-Year Retrospective Study of Young Adults in a Diabetes Transition Clinic

The transition of people from paediatric to adult diabetes services is associated with worsening glycaemia and increased diabetes-related hospitalisation. This study compared the clinical characteristics of those with and without mental health conditions among attenders at a diabetes young adult clinic diabetes before and after changes in service delivery. Retrospective audit of 200 people with diabetes attending a Sydney public hospital over eight years corresponding to the period before (2012–2016) and after (2017–2018) restructuring of a clinic for young adults aged 16–25 years. Characteristics of those with and without mental health conditions (depression, anxiety, diabetes related distress, eating disorders), were compared. Among clinic attenders (type 1 diabetes n = 184, 83.2%), 40.5% (n = 89) had a mental health condition particularly, depression (n = 57, 64%), which was higher among Indigenous than non-Indigenous people (5.6% vs. 0.8%, p = 0.031) but similar between diabetes type. Over eight years, those with, compared with those without a mental health condition had higher haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c) at the last visit (9.4% (79 mmol/mol) vs. 8.7% (71 mmol/mol), p = 0.027), the proportion with diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA 60.7% vs. 42.7%, p = 0.009), smoking (38.4 vs. 13.6%, p = 0.009), retinopathy (9.0 vs. 2.3%, p = 0.025), multiple DKAs (28.4 vs. 16.0%, p = 0.031) were significantly higher. Having a mental health condition was associated with 2.02 (95% confidence intervals 1.1–3.7) fold increased risk of HbA1c ≥9.0% (75 mmol/mol). Changes to the clinic were not associated with improvements in mental health condition (39.0% vs. 32.4%, p = 0.096). In conclusion, we found that mental health conditions, particularly depression, are common in this population and are associated with diabetes complications. Diabetes type and clinic changes did not affect the reported mental health conditions. Additional strategies including having an in-house psychologist are required to reduce complication risks among those with mental health conditions.

Estimating the burden of type 2 diabetes in the UK prison environment for the next decade

Although limited, global evidence suggests that the cardiometabolic health of those in prison is poorer than their community peers. Type 2 diabetes (T2DM) is a public health challenge and community rates are continuing to rise. Given that cardiometabolic risk factors are prevalent amongst younger individuals within the prison population, it is reasonable to assume that the prison environment will also experience an increase in new cases of T2DM. Therefore, the aim of this study was, to predict in a current prison population, how many potential new cases of T2DM could develop in the next 10 years. This study used health data collected from a prison sample (n = 299) aged 25-84 years in HMP Parc, UK, and the Diabetes UK Risk Score was used to predict T2DM risk. In terms of projecting new cases, it was estimated that in the next decade 6.4 individuals per 100 would develop T2DM, and this value increased to 16.4 individuals per 100 in those aged 50 years and older. The development of new cases across all age groups is a concern, and it appears that the prison community are a 'target population' for prevention opportunities.

Advances in GLP-1 treatment: focus on oral semaglutide

BACKGROUND

There is currently a large arsenal of antidiabetic drugs available to treat type 2 diabetes (T2D). However, this is a serious chronic disease that affects millions of adults worldwide and is responsible for severe complications, comorbidities, and low quality of life when uncontrolled due mainly to delays in initiating treatment or inadequate therapy. This review article aims to clarify the therapeutic role of the oral formulation of the glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP-1 RA) semaglutide in treating typical T2D patients. The discussion focused on metabolic, glycemic, and weight alteration effects and the safety of the therapy with this drug.

MAIN TEXT

Therapy with glucagon-like peptide 1 receptor agonist (GLP-1 RA) promotes strategic changes in the pathophysiological pathway of T2D and improves the secretion of glucagon and insulin, which results in a reduction in blood glucose levels and the promotion of weight loss. Until recently, the only route for semaglutide administration was parenteral. However, an oral formulation of GLP-1 RA was recently developed and approved by the Brazilian Health Regulatory Agency (ANVISA) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) based on the Peptide Innovation for Early Diabetes Treatment (PIONEER) program results. A sequence of 10 clinical studies compared oral semaglutide with placebo or active standard-of-care medications (empagliflozin 25 mg, sitagliptin 100 mg, or liraglutide 1.8 mg) in different T2D populations.

CONCLUSIONS

Oral semaglutide effectively reduces glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels and body weight in a broad spectrum of patients with T2D and shows cardiovascular safety. Oral semaglutide broadens therapy options and facilitates the adoption of earlier GLP-1 RA treatment once T2D patients present low rates of treatment discontinuation. The main adverse events reported were related to the gastrointestinal tract, common to GLP-1 RA class drugs.

Psychological interventions to improve self-management of type 1 and type 2 diabetes: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

For people with diabetes mellitus to achieve optimal glycaemic control, motivation to perform self-management is important. The research team wanted to determine whether or not psychological interventions are clinically effective and cost-effective in increasing self-management and improving glycaemic control.

OBJECTIVES

The first objective was to determine the clinical effectiveness of psychological interventions for people with type 1 diabetes mellitus and people with type 2 diabetes mellitus so that they have improved (1) glycated haemoglobin levels, (2) diabetes self-management and (3) quality of life, and fewer depressive symptoms. The second objective was to determine the cost-effectiveness of psychological interventions.

DATA SOURCES

The following databases were accessed (searches took place between 2003 and 2016): MEDLINE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), Cochrane Library, PsycINFO, EMBASE, Cochrane Controlled Trials Register, Web of Science, and Dissertation Abstracts International. Diabetes conference abstracts, reference lists of included studies and Clinicaltrials.gov trial registry were also searched.

REVIEW METHODS

Systematic review, aggregate meta-analysis, network meta-analysis, individual patient data meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness modelling were all used. Risk of bias of randomised and non-randomised controlled trials was assessed using the Cochrane Handbook (Higgins JP, Altman DG, Gøtzsche PC, Jüni P, Moher D, Oxman AD, et al. The Cochrane Collaboration's tool for assessing risk of bias in randomised trials. BMJ 2011;343:d5928).

DESIGN

Systematic review, meta-analysis, cost-effectiveness analysis and patient and public consultation were all used.

SETTING

Settings in primary or secondary care were included.

PARTICIPANTS

Adolescents and children with type 1 diabetes mellitus and adults with types 1 and 2 diabetes mellitus were included.

INTERVENTIONS

The interventions used were psychological treatments, including and not restricted to cognitive-behavioural therapy, counselling, family therapy and psychotherapy.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Glycated haemoglobin levels, self-management behaviours, body mass index, blood pressure levels, depressive symptoms and quality of life were all used as outcome measures.

RESULTS

A total of 96 studies were included in the systematic review (n = 18,659 participants). In random-effects meta-analysis, data on glycated haemoglobin levels were available for seven studies conducted in adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus (n = 851 participants) that demonstrated a pooled mean difference of -0.13 (95% confidence interval -0.33 to 0.07), a non-significant decrease in favour of psychological treatment; 18 studies conducted in adolescents/children with type 1 diabetes mellitus (n = 2583 participants) that demonstrated a pooled mean difference of 0.00 (95% confidence interval -0.18 to 0.18), indicating no change; and 49 studies conducted in adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (n = 12,009 participants) that demonstrated a pooled mean difference of -0.21 (95% confidence interval -0.31 to -0.10), equivalent to reduction in glycated haemoglobin levels of -0.33% or ≈3.5 mmol/mol. For type 2 diabetes mellitus, there was evidence that psychological interventions improved dietary behaviour and quality of life but not blood pressure, body mass index or depressive symptoms. The results of the network meta-analysis, which considers direct and indirect effects of multiple treatment comparisons, suggest that, for adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus (7 studies; 968 participants), attention control and cognitive-behavioural therapy are clinically effective and cognitive-behavioural therapy is cost-effective. For adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (49 studies; 12,409 participants), cognitive-behavioural therapy and counselling are effective and cognitive-behavioural therapy is potentially cost-effective. The results of the individual patient data meta-analysis for adolescents/children with type 1 diabetes mellitus (9 studies; 1392 participants) suggest that there were main effects for age and diabetes duration. For adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (19 studies; 3639 participants), baseline glycated haemoglobin levels moderated treatment outcome.

LIMITATIONS

Aggregate meta-analysis was limited to glycaemic control for type 1 diabetes mellitus. It was not possible to model cost-effectiveness for adolescents/children with type 1 diabetes mellitus and modelling for type 2 diabetes mellitus involved substantial uncertainty. The individual patient data meta-analysis included only 40-50% of studies.

CONCLUSIONS

This review suggests that psychological treatments offer minimal clinical benefit in improving glycated haemoglobin levels for adults with type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, there was no evidence of benefit compared with control interventions in improving glycated haemoglobin levels for people with type 1 diabetes mellitus.

FUTURE WORK

Future work should consider the competency of the interventionists delivering a therapy and psychological approaches that are matched to a person and their life course.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016033619.

FUNDING

This project was funded by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 24, No. 28. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

The Effectiveness of Behavior Change Techniques Underpinning Psychological Interventions to Improve Glycemic Levels for Adults With Type 2 Diabetes: A Meta-Analysis

An existing systematic review and meta-analysis found a significant reduction in glycemic levels for adults with type 2 diabetes who received a psychological intervention over control conditions. To help develop effective interventions in the future, there is a need to understand the active ingredients which underpin these psychological interventions. We conducted a secondary meta-analysis including 67 randomized controlled trials (RCTs) reported in English. We reviewed the psychological intervention descriptions of the included studies of the existing review and extracted the behavior change techniques (BCTs) according to the BCT taxonomy (BCTTv1). We also extracted information on primary behavioral target versus primary outcome, and presence of fidelity assessment. The most frequent BCTs across RCTs were ‘social support (unspecified)’ (n=50), ‘problem solving’ (n=38) and ‘goal setting (behavior’) (n=30). These BCTs were independently associated with a significant reduction in glycemic levels (HbA1c) compared to control conditions, but not significantly different from studies that did not include these BCTs. Meta-regressions revealed no significant associations between HbA1c, and psychological intervention category (counselling versus cognitive behavioral therapy interventions) (p=0.84), frequency of BCTs per psychological intervention (p=0.29), primary behavioral target versus primary outcome (p=0.48), or presence of fidelity assessment (p=0.15). Social support (unspecified), problem solving, and goal setting (behavior) could be useful BCTs to develop psychological interventions for people with type 2 diabetes to improve glycemic levels. However, more research is required to understand which combination of individual BCTs are most effective for this population.

Systematic Review Registration

Registered with the international prospective register of systematic reviews registration (PROSPERO) CRD42016033619.

Jabuticaba [Plinia trunciflora (O. Berg) Kausel] Protects Liver of Diabetic Rats Against Mitochondrial Dysfunction and Oxidative Stress Through the Modulation of SIRT3 Expression

Complications generated by hyperglycemia present in diabetes mellitus (DM) have been constantly related to oxidative stress and dysfunction in the mitochondrial electron transport chain (ETC). Sirtuin 3 (SIRT3), which is present in mitochondria, is responsible for regulating several proteins involved in metabolic homeostasis and oxidative stress. Studies have suggested alterations in the expression of SIRT3 in DM. The objective of this study was to evaluate the effects of phenolic compounds in jabuticaba (Plinia trunciflora), a berry native to Brazil, on the activity of mitochondrial ETC complexes, SIRT3 protein expression, and oxidative stress parameters in liver of diabetic rats induced by streptozotocin. After type 1 DM induction (streptozotocin 65 mg/kg), diabetic and healthy rats were treated with jabuticaba peel extract (JPE) by gavage (0.5 g/kg of weight) for 30 days. After treatments, those diabetic rats presented impaired activities of complexes I, II, and III of ETC along with an overexpression of SIRT3. In addition, an increase in lipid peroxidation and superoxide dismutase and catalase activities was observed in the diabetic group. The treatment with JPE was able to recover the activity of the mitochondrial complexes and reduce the expression of SIRT3. Furthermore, JPE treatment reduced oxidative damage to lipids and brought the antioxidants enzyme activities to basal levels in diabetic rats. Together, these results demonstrate that JPE can reduce oxidative stress related to DM by restoring mitochondrial complexes activity and regulating SIRT3 expression. Thus, JPE could become an alternative to reduce the development of complications related to DM.

One Hundred Years of Insulin: Value Beyond Price in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus

Type 2 diabetes mellitus is a chronic, progressive disease that frequently necessitates treatment with basal insulin to maintain adequate glycaemic control. In considering the value of different basal insulin therapies, although acquisition costs are of increasing importance to budget-constrained healthcare systems, value beyond simple price considerations should be taken into account. Whilst human basal insulins are of lower acquisition cost compared to long-acting insulin analogues, this difference in price has the potential to be offset in terms of total healthcare system value through the ultra-long duration of action and low variability in glucose-lowering activity which have been translated into real clinical benefits, in particular a reduced risk of hypoglycaemic events. The maintenance of glycaemic targets and avoidance of hypoglycaemia that have been associated with insulin analogues represent a significant value consideration, beyond price, for the use of basal insulin analogues to manage type 2 diabetes mellitus from the perspective of all stakeholders within the healthcare system, including payers, healthcare professionals, patients and society.

The economic burden of poor glycemic control associated with therapeutic inertia in patients with type 2 diabetes in Denmark

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the economic burden associated with therapeutic inertia in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D) in Denmark.

METHODS

The economic burden for a newly diagnosed Danish T2D population was estimated using a validated diabetes model (The Swedish Institute for Health Economics (IHE) Cohort model), based on achieving varying levels of glycemic control. The analyses were based on clinical data from the Danish Centre for Strategic Research (DD2) and supplemented with relevant Swedish data where variables were missing. The analysis estimated the economic burden for populations achieving different guideline-recommended targets for glycated hemoglobin (HbA_1c) and for a number of therapeutic inertia scenarios. To estimate the population-level burden Danish specific epidemiology data were incorporated. All costs are reported in 2020 Danish kroner (DKK) and 2020 Euros (€).

RESULTS

The baseline HbA_1c level used for this analysis was 7.9% (63 mmol/mol), which was observed in newly diagnosed Danish T2D patients prior to their first anti-diabetic treatment. Therapeutic inertia was associated with substantial economic burden compared to achieving immediate glycemic control (target < 6.5% (< 48 mmol/mol)). Per patient burdens were between 3562 DKK and 20,160 DKK (€477- €2701) dependent on the duration of therapeutic inertia (1-7 years), with this further increased when indirect costs were included (9649 DKK to 51,585 DKK [€1393-€6912]). The economic burden at a population level was between 27 million DKK to 150 million DKK (€3.6 million to €20 million), dependent on the duration of therapeutic inertia, rising to 72 million DKK to 384 million DKK (€9.6 million to €51.4 million) when indirect costs were included.

CONCLUSION

Achieving early and intensive glycemic control, thereby minimizing therapeutic inertia can lead to substantial savings for the Danish society, ranging between 72 million DKK and 384 million DKK (€9.6 million to €51.4 million) (1-7 years of therapeutic inertia). This study highlights that efforts to minimize therapeutic inertia, by securing timely intensification before individual HbA_1c targets are exceeded, results in significant long-term cost savings in Denmark.

Participation in physical activity is associated with reduced nocturnal hypoxaemia in males

Moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) interventions reduce the severity of obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA); however, little epidemiological research exists to confirm these findings.

789 participants from the population-based Men Androgen Inflammation Lifestyle Environment and Stress (MAILES) Study underwent polysomnography. MVPA was assessed using the Active Australia questionnaire, which was completed when participants were first recruited to the MAILES study (2002–2006), and again in 2010. Multinomial logistic regressions established odds ratio between OSA severity categories with MVPA, whilst adjusted linear models determined associations between OSA metrics with MVPA.

Cross-sectionally, each hour of MVPA was associated with reduced severity of mean oxygen desaturation (unstandardised β (B)=−0.002, p=0.043) and reduced time below 90% oxygen saturation (B=−0.03, p=0.034).

Longitudinally, each hour increase in MVPA was associated with a 4% reduction in the odds of severe OSA and less severe mean oxygen desaturation (B=−0.003, p=0.014), time below 90% oxygen saturation (B=−0.02, p=0.02), and mean duration of apnoeas (B=−0.004, p=0.016).

MVPA is associated with reduced hypoxaemia in a cohort of community dwelling males, approximately half of whom had untreated OSA. As nocturnal intermittent hypoxaemia is associated with cardiometabolic disorders, MVPA may offer protection for patients with OSA.

This study provides epidemiological evidence that moderate to vigorous physical activity is associated with less severe OSA-induced hypoxaemia. This result suggests that MVPA should be actively implemented in treatment regimens for people with OSA.https://bit.ly/3a9asiZ

The cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin in treating high-risk patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus: An economic evaluation using data from the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial

AIM

To undertake a cost-effectiveness analysis of dapagliflozin in treating high-risk patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using both directly observed events in the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial and surrogate risk factors to predict endpoints not captured within the trial.

METHODS

An established T2DM model was adapted to integrate survival curves derived from the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial, and extrapolated over a lifetime for all-cause mortality, hospitalization for heart failure, stroke, myocardial infarction, hospitalization for unstable angina, and end-stage kidney disease. The economic analysis considered the overall DECLARE trial population, as well as reported patient subgroups. Total and incremental costs, life-years and quality-adjusted life-years associated with dapagliflozin versus placebo were estimated from the perspective of the UK healthcare payer.

RESULTS

In the UK setting, treatment with dapagliflozin compared to placebo was estimated to be dominant, with an expected increase in quality-adjusted life-years from 10.43 to 10.48 (+0.06) and a reduction in lifetime total costs from £39 451 to £36 899 (-£2552). Across all patient subgroups, dapagliflozin was estimated to be dominant, with the greatest absolute benefit in the prior heart failure subgroup (incremental lifetime costs -£4150 and quality-adjusted life-years +0.11).

CONCLUSIONS

The results of this study demonstrate that dapagliflozin compared to placebo appears to be cost-effective, when considering evidence reported from the DECLARE-TIMI 58 trial, at established UK willingness-to-pay thresholds. The findings highlight the potential of dapagliflozin to have a meaningful impact in reducing the economic burden of T2DM and its associated complications across a broad T2DM population.

Use of Insulin Degludec/Insulin Aspart in the Management of Diabetes Mellitus: Expert Panel Recommendations on Appropriate Practice Patterns

Insulin degludec/insulin aspart (IDegAsp) is a fixed-ratio co-formulation of insulin degludec (IDeg), which provides long-lasting basal insulin coverage, and insulin aspart (IAsp), which targets post-prandial glucose. This expert panel aimed to provide a practical and implementable guidance document to assist clinicians in prescribing IDegAsp in the diabetes management with respect to different patient populations including children and adults with type 1 diabetes (T1D) or type 2 diabetes (T2D) as well as pregnant, elderly and hospitalized patients and varying practice patterns (insulin-naive, insulin-treated, switching from basal, basal bolus and premix regimens). The experts recommended that IDegAsp can be used in insulin-naive T2D patients with poor glycemic control (HbA1c >8.5%) despite optimal oral antidiabetic drugs (OADs) as well as in insulin-treated T2D patients by switching from basal insulin, basal-bolus therapy or premixed insulins in relation to lower risk of nocturnal hypoglycemia, fewer injections and lower intraday glycemic variability, respectively. The experts considered the use of IDegAsp in children with T2D as a basal bolus alternative rather than as an alternative to basal insulin after metformin failure, use of IDegAsp in adult T1D patients as a simplified basal bolus regimen with lesser nocturnal hypoglycemia, fewer injections and better fasting plasma glucose control and in children with T1D as an alternative insulin regimen with fewer injection to increase treatment adherence. The proposed expert opinion provides practical information on use of IDegAsp in different patient populations and practice patterns to assist clinicians, which seems to compensate the need for easily implementable guidance on this novel insulin regimen.

Flash Continuous Glucose Monitoring: A Summary Review of Recent Real-World Evidence

Optimizing glycemic control remains a shared challenge for clinicians and their patients with diabetes. Flash continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) provides immediate information about an individual's current and projected glucose level, allowing users to respond promptly to mitigate or prevent pending hypoglycemia or hyperglycemia. Large randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have demonstrated the glycemic benefits of flash CGM use in both type 1 and type 2 diabetes. However, whereas RCTs are mostly focused on the efficacy of this technology in defined circumstances, real-world studies can assess its effectiveness in wider clinical settings. This review assesses the most recent real-world studies demonstrating the effectiveness of flash CGM use to improve clinical outcomes and health care resource utilization in populations with diabetes.

Assessing the cost-effectiveness of sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors in type 2 diabetes mellitus: A comprehensive economic evaluation using clinical trial and real-world evidence

AIMS

The economic burden of diabetes is driven by the management of vascular complications. Sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) have demonstrated reductions in cardiovascular and renal complications, including hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) and renal disease progression, in randomized clinical trials. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the SGLT2i class versus standard of care in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), using evidence from both clinical trial and real-world studies.

METHODS

An established T2DM model was adapted to use contemporary outcomes evidence from real-world studies and randomized controlled trial evaluations of SGLT2i, and extrapolated over a lifetime for HHF, myocardial infarction, stroke, end-stage renal disease and all-cause mortality. The economic analysis considered adults with T2DM, with and without established cardiovascular disease, and was conducted over a lifetime from the perspective of the health care payer in the United Kingdom, United States and China, discounted at country-specific rates.

RESULTS

SGLT2i were consistently associated with increased treatment costs, reduced complication costs and gains in quality-adjusted life years driven by differences in projected life expectancy, cardiovascular and microvascular morbidity and weight loss. SGLT2i were estimated to be cost-saving or cost-effective at relevant thresholds for the overall population in the United Kingdom, United States and China, with cost-effectiveness being the greatest in higher risk subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings highlight the need to take into account cost savings from reducing common, morbid and preventable T2DM complications when considering the cost of diabetes medications.

Healthcare resource utilization and cost among patients with type 1 diabetes in the United States

BACKGROUND: Approximately 5%-10% of patients with diabetes are diagnosed with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), the incidence and prevalence of which is projected to increase through 2050. Despite this, T1DM-related health care resource utilization (HCRU) and economic burden in the United States have not been adequately assessed, since previous studies used various cost definitions and underlying methods to examine these outcomes. OBJECTIVE: To assess HCRU and costs incurred by patients with T1DM in the United States. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used IBM Watson MarketScan data from 2011 to 2015 and Optum's electronic medical record (EMR) and integrated data (i.e., linked EMR and administrative claims data) from 2011 to 2016. Included patients had ≥ 1 T1DM diagnosis (the earliest diagnosis date was designated as the index date), were continuously enrolled for ≥ 6 months during their pre-index baseline periods, and had ≥ 1 pharmacy claim for insulin or an insulin pump within ± 90 days of the index date. Baseline demographic and clinical characteristics were summarized descriptively. Average monthly HCRU and costs per patient per month (PPPM) paid by the health plan and patient were assessed. Costs were adjusted for inflation to 2018 U.S. dollars. RESULTS: We identified 181,423 patients with T1DM who met the selection criteria in MarketScan, 84,759 in the Optum EMR, and 8,948 in the Optum integrated databases. Most patients were male (range across databases: 52.6%-53.1%), relatively young (medians: 33-35 years, overall range: 0-100 years), and had a Charlson Comorbidity Index score of 1 (69.2%-73.0%) across all databases. Total all-cause and diabetes-related costs ranged from $1,482 to $1,522 and $733 to $780 PPPM, respectively, during the follow-up period. Pharmacy costs contributed most to the total cost of care, accounting for 55.3% ($431) to 61.1% ($448) of total diabetes-related costs. On an annualized basis, patients had an average of 0.2-0.9 all-cause hospitalizations and 0.1-0.3 diabetes-related hospitalizations during follow-up. The median costs per diabetes-related hospitalization ranged from $6,548 to $8,439, accounting for 4%-7% of total monthly diabetes-related costs. Patients had an average of 0.4-0.5 all-cause and 0.1-0.2 diabetes-related emergency department (ED) visits annually; the median costs of ED visits were $972-$1,499, contributing about 2% of monthly diabetes-related costs during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, retrospective, observational study of pediatric and adult patients with T1DM, diabetes-related costs totaled nearly $800 per month. Pharmacy costs contributed to over half of diabetes-related costs, indicating the substantial economic burden associated with the treatment of T1DM. Additional research is needed to determine risk factors associated with costly events (e.g., hospitalizations and ED visits) and indirect costs associated with T1DM. DISCLOSURES: JDRF International provided funding for this project and manuscript. JDRF International also contracted with Evidera, a research and consulting firm for the biopharma industry, for its participation in the project and in the development of this manuscript. The Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust provided JDRF International with funding. Simeone, Shah, and Ganz are employed by Evidera and do not receive any payment or honoraria directly from Evidera's clients. LeGrand is an employee of JDRF International. Bushman was employed by JDRF International during the conduct of the study and development of this manuscript. Sullivan and Koralova are employees of The Leona M. and Harry B. Helmsley Charitable Trust.

An Effectiveness Evaluation of a Primary Care-Embedded Clinical Pharmacist-Led Intervention Among Blacks with Diabetes

BACKGROUND

Black individuals with type 2 diabetes suffer disproportionate morbidity and mortality relative to whites with type 2 diabetes, irrespective of health insurance coverage.

OBJECTIVE

Examine the impact of a primary care-embedded clinical pharmacist-led intervention (UCMyRx) on cardiovascular risk factor control among blacks with type 2 diabetes in a large healthcare system.

DESIGN

We used data extracted from the electronic health records (EHR) system and a difference-in-differences study design with a propensity-matched comparison group to evaluate the impact of UCMyRx on HbA1c and systolic blood pressure (SBP) among black patients with type 2 diabetes, relative to usual care.

PARTICIPANTS

Individuals with type 2 diabetes identified as either black or African American in the EHR that were ≥ 18 years of age that had the following observations during the study window (03/02/2013-12/31/18: (1) HbA1C ≥ 8%, at least once, anywhere between 365 days before and 14 days after the UCMyRx visit and a follow-up HbA1c measure within 120 to 365 days after the visit and/or (2) SBP ≥ 140 mmHg at least once between 365 days before and 14 days after the UCMyRx visit that had a follow-up SBP measure within 120 to 450 days after the visit.

INTERVENTION

UCMyRx pharmacists review labs and vital signs, perform medication reconciliation, use a standardized survey to assess barriers to medication adherence, and develop tailored interventions to improve medication adherence.

MAIN MEASURES

Change in HbA1c and change in SBP from before to after the first UCMyRx visit.

KEY RESULTS

Having at least one visit with a UCMyRx clinical pharmacist was associated with a significant reduction in HbA1c (- 0.4%, p value = .01); however, there was no significant impact on SBP (- .051 mmHg, p value = 0.74).

CONCLUSIONS

The UCMyRx intervention is a useful strategy for improving HbA1c control among blacks with type 2 diabetes.

Long-Term Cost-Effectiveness Analyses of Empagliflozin Versus Oral Semaglutide, in Addition to Metformin, for the Treatment of Type 2 Diabetes in the UK

INTRODUCTION

International guidelines recommend treatment with a sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 (SGLT-2) inhibitor or glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist for treatment intensification in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) patients with progression on metformin. In the randomised, controlled, Peptide Innovation for Early Diabetes Treatment (PIONEER) 2 trial, the SGLT-2 inhibitor empagliflozin was compared with the GLP-1 receptor agonist oral semaglutide, in addition to metformin. The aim of the current study was to assess the long-term cost-effectiveness of empagliflozin 25 mg versus oral semaglutide 14 mg, in addition to metformin, for T2DM patients in the UK.

METHODS

Analyses were conducted from the UK healthcare payer perspective, using the IQVIA Core Diabetes model, with a time horizon of 50 years. Patients received either empagliflozin or oral semaglutide, in addition to metformin, until Hba1c threshold of 7.5% (58 mmol/mol) was exceeded, following which treatment intensification with insulin glargine in addition to empagliflozin or oral semaglutide plus metformin was assumed. Baseline cohort characteristics and 52-week treatment effects were derived from the PIONEER 2 trial. Treatment effects of empagliflozin and GLP-1 receptor agonists on hospitalisation for heart failure (hHF) were based on the Empagliflozin Comparative Effectiveness and Safety (EMPRISE) real-world study. Utilities, treatment costs and costs of diabetes-related complications were obtained from published sources.

RESULTS

Direct costs for empagliflozin plus metformin were considerably lower than those for oral semaglutide plus metformin (by more than GBP 6000). Compared with oral semaglutide plus metformin, empagliflozin plus metformin was a cost-effective treatment for T2DM patients in all scenarios tested. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis showed cost-effectiveness in > 95% of the iterations using a threshold of 20,000 GBP/QALY.

CONCLUSION

Empagliflozin 25 mg is a cost-effective treatment option versus oral semaglutide 14 mg, when used in addition to metformin, for the treatment of T2DM patients in the UK.

Improving management of glycaemic control in people with T2DM in primary care: estimation of the impact on the clinical complications and associated costs

BACKGROUND

To estimate the potential benefits in terms of avoided complications and cost reduction if the Spanish health system would encourage the intensification of treatment for better glycaemic control in adults with Type 2 diabetes from the current HbA1c target used in clinical practice of 68 mmol/mol to a target of 53 mmol/mol.

METHODS

The IQVIA Core Diabetes Model (version 9.0) was used to model the impact of these changes in respect of micro- and macrovascular complications and the associated costs. The modelling was based on data derived from the SIDIAP-Q population database from Catalonia, taking a random cohort of 10,000 people with type 2 diabetes and dividing it into sub-groups based on their baseline HbA1c.

RESULTS

The CDM modelling showed that the average cost reduction per person varies depending on baseline HbA1c. The model estimates that after 25 years, people with a baseline HbA1c between 48 and 58 mmol/mol and > 75 mmol/mol show an average cost reduction of €6027 and €11,966, respectively. Applying the per-person cost reduction to the cohorts of the prevalent population in Spain (1,910,374) the overall estimated cost reduction was €14.7 billion over 25 years. The improvements in outcomes resulted in an estimated reduction of more than 1.2 million complications cumulatively over 25 years, of which more than 550,000 relate to diabetic foot and more than 170,000 related to renal disease.

CONCLUSION

Over a 25 year period, Spain could considerably reduce costs and avoid major complications if, on a population level, more ambitious glycaemic control, according to Spanish or EU guidelines, could be achieved among people with type 2 diabetes by reducing the HbA1c threshold for treatment intensification. Although there is a slower trajectory for benefits in earlier years, there is a much more rapid benefit gain between years 5 and 15.

Relationship between sleep disturbances, lipid profile and insulin sensitivity in type 1 diabetic patients: a cross-sectional study

Objective The consequences of sleep deprivation in type 1 diabetes (T1D) patients are poorly understood. Our aim was to determine how sleep disorders influence lipid profile and insulin sensitivity in T1D patients. Materials and methods This was a cross-sectional study at a public university hospital. Demographic information and medical histories were obtained during regular scheduled visit of T1D patients to the outpatient clinic. Insulin sensitivity was obtained using the estimated glucose disposal rate (eGDR) formula. Sleep quality was assessed using the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index, Epworth Sleepiness Scale and Berlin Questionnaire. Results The adult participants (n = 66, 62% women) had a median age of 28.0 years (interquartile range 21.8-33.0). Six patients (9%) had metabolic syndrome according to the International Diabetes Federation criteria. Thirty patients (46%) were considered poor sleepers according to the Pittsburgh Sleep Quality Index. The LDL-c and total cholesterol levels of poor sleepers were higher than those of good sleepers (103 v. 81; p = 0.003 and 178.0 v. 159.5 mg/dL; p = 0.009, respectively). Three patients (4%) were at high risk of obstructive sleep apnea syndrome (OSAS) according to the Berlin Questionnaire. The eGDR was lower in the group of patients with high probability of having OSAS (6.0 v. 9.1 mg.kg-1.min-1;p = .03). Conclusions Poor subjective quality of sleep and higher risk of OSAS were correlated with a worsened lipid profile and decreased insulin sensitivity, respectively. Therefore, T1D patients with sleep disturbances might have an increased cardiovascular risk in the future.

Cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin as an adjunct to insulin for the treatment of type 1 diabetes mellitus in the United Kingdom

AIMS

To assess the cost-effectiveness of dapagliflozin, a sodium-glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitor, as an adjunct to insulin in adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) inadequately controlled by insulin alone in the UK setting.

METHODS

A cost-utility analysis was conducted to compare dapagliflozin (5 mg or 10 mg) added to insulin versus insulin monotherapy (standard of care) over a lifetime horizon. Treatment efficacy and safety data were obtained from 52-week results of the DEPICT-1 and DEPICT-2 trials and a network meta-analysis of SGLT2 inhibitors in T1DM. Direct healthcare costs, life-years, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were estimated from a UK payer perspective and discounted at 3.5% annually, using the Cardiff T1DM Model. Sensitivity analyses assessed uncertainty in estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs).

RESULTS

Dapagliflozin 5 mg was associated with gains of 0.23 life-years and 0.42 QALYs, at an additional cost of £4240 per person; corresponding to an ICER of £10 143 versus standard of care. For dapagliflozin 10 mg, incremental life-years, QALYs and costs were 0.24, 0.49 and £2964, respectively; corresponding to an ICER of £6103 versus standard of care. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, ICER estimates fell below £20 000/QALY in 78% to 90% of simulations. Cost-effectiveness results were sensitive to changes in baseline patient characteristics and treatment effects on glycated haemoglobin; however, ICERs remained below £20 000.

CONCLUSIONS

At cost-effectiveness thresholds conventionally applied in the UK, dapagliflozin as an adjunct to insulin appears to be a cost-effective treatment option for people with T1DM inadequately controlled by insulin alone.

Management of adult patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus in Africa: A post-hoc cohort analysis of 12 African countries participating in the International Diabetes Management Practices Study (Wave 7)

There is a paucity of information on real world management of African adult patients with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM). We aimed to describe a cohort of African adults with T1DM.The International Diabetes Management Practices Study is an observational survey conducted from 2005 to 2017. Data were collected in seven individual waves from countries in Asia, Africa, East Europe, and Latin America. Wave 7 was conducted from 2016 to 2017 and the African cohort included 12 countries. Questionnaires were administered to clinicians and patients. Analyses were mainly descriptive. Logistic regressions were performed to identify predictive factors for glycaemic control.A total of 788 patients were enrolled in the study. HbA1c values were available for 712 patients; only 16.6% had HbA1c values <7%. A total of 196 (24.9%) reported being hospitalized in the preceding year, with the most common reasons being diabetic ketoacidosis (58.1%, 93/160) and hypoglycaemia (31.1%; 52/167). Over half of the patients (55.4%) stated that the cost of test strips limited regular glycemic monitoring; a minority of patients (15%, 120/788) received structured diabetes education. Predictors of HbA1c <7% included patients receiving diabetes education (odds ratio [OR] [95% confidence interval, CI] = 2.707 [1.157-6.335] P = .022), following a healthy diet and exercise plan (OR [95% CI] = 2.253 [1.206-4.209], P < .001) and self-managing (monitoring glucose levels and adjusting insulin accordingly) (OR [95% CI] 2.508 [1.500-4.191] P < .001).African adults with T1DM have suboptimal glycemic control with almost one-quarter reporting hospitalization within the preceding year. Most patients felt comfortable with self-adjustment of insulin dose but said that the cost of test strips was the main factor that limited regular monitoring. Reducing direct costs of testing strips and insulin, and improving education will address major challenges within these settings.

Economic Simulation Modeling in Type 2 Diabetes

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This paper provides an overview of type 2 diabetes economic simulation modeling and reviews current topics of discussion and major challenges in the field.

RECENT FINDINGS

Important challenges in the field include increasing the generalizability of models and improving transparency in model reporting. To identify and address these issues, modeling groups have organized through the Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge meetings and developed tools (i.e., checklist, impact inventory) to standardize modeling methods and reporting of results. Accordingly, many newer diabetes models have begun utilizing these tools, allowing for improved comparability between diabetes models. In the last two decades, type 2 diabetes simulation models have improved considerably, due to the collaborative work performed through the Mount Hood Diabetes Challenge meetings. To continue to improve diabetes models, future work must focus on clarifying diabetes progression in racial/ethnic minorities and incorporating equity considerations into health economic analysis.

Towards implementation of AI in New Zealand national diabetic screening program: Cloud-based, robust, and bespoke

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have become a prominent method of AI implementation in medical classification tasks. Grading Diabetic Retinopathy (DR) has been at the forefront of the development of AI for ophthalmology. However, major obstacles remain in the generalization of these CNNs onto real-world DR screening programs. We believe these difficulties are due to use of 1) small training datasets (<5,000 images), 2) private and 'curated' repositories, 3) locally implemented CNN implementation methods, while 4) relying on measured Area Under the Curve (AUC) as the sole measure of CNN performance. To address these issues, the public EyePACS Kaggle Diabetic Retinopathy dataset was uploaded onto Microsoft Azure™ cloud platform. Two CNNs were trained; 1 a "Quality Assurance", and 2. a "Classifier". The Diabetic Retinopathy classifier CNN (DRCNN) performance was then tested both on 'un-curated' as well as the 'curated' test set created by the "Quality Assessment" CNN model. Finally, the sensitivity of the DRCNNs was boosted using two post-training techniques. Our DRCNN proved to be robust, as its performance was similar on 'curated' and 'un-curated' test sets. The implementation of 'cascading thresholds' and 'max margin' techniques led to significant improvements in the DRCNN's sensitivity, while also enhancing the specificity of other grades.

Psychological interventions to improve glycemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes: a systematic review and meta-analysis

The quality of evidence that psychological interventions are effective in improving glycemic control in adults with type 2 diabetes (T2D) is weak.We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of psychological interventions in T2D to assess whether their effectiveness in improving glycemic levels has improved over the past 30 years. We applied the protocol of a systematic review and aggregate meta-analysis conducted to January 2003. We added network meta-analysis (NMA) to compare intervention and control group type against usual care. MEDLINE, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, PsycINFO, EMBASE, Cochrane Controlled Trials Database, Web of Science, and Dissertation Abstracts International were searched from January 2003 to July 2018. Only randomized controlled trials (RCT) of psychological interventions for adults with T2D reported in any language were included. The primary outcome was change in glycemic control (glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) in mmol/mol). Data were extracted from study reports and authors were contacted for missing data.94 RCTs were eligible for inclusion in the systematic review since the last review. In 70 RCTs (n=14 796 participants) the pooled mean difference in HbA1c in those randomized to psychological intervention compared with control group was -0.19 (95% CI -0.25 to -0.12), equivalent to a reduction in HbA1c of 3.7 mmol/mol, with moderate heterogeneity across studies (I²=64.7%, p<0.001). NMA suggested the probability of intervention effectiveness is highest for self-help materials, cognitive-behavioral therapy, and counseling, compared with usual care. Limitations of this study include that there is a possibility that some studies may have been missed if diabetes did not appear in the title or abstract.The effectiveness of psychological interventions for adults with T2D have minimal clinical benefit in improving glycemic control. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42016033619.

The burden of type 2 diabetes in Europe: Current and future aspects of insulin treatment from patient and healthcare spending perspectives

Due to the progressive nature of type 2 diabetes (T2DM), initiation of insulin therapy is very likely in the disease continuum. This article aims at highlighting the current situation with regard to insulin therapy in people with T2DM in Europe and at presenting the associated unmet need. Challenges for both people with T2DM and healthcare professionals include clinical inertia also derived from fear of hypoglycaemia, weight gain and injections as well as increased need for a comprehensive diabetes management. We compare national and international guidelines and recommendations for the initiation and intensification of insulin therapy with the real-world situation in six European countries, demonstrating that glycaemic targets are only met in a minority of people with T2DM on insulin therapy. Furthermore, this work evaluates currently recorded numbers of people with T2DM treated with insulin in Europe, the proportion not achieving the stated glycaemic targets and thus in need to enhance insulin therapy e.g. by a change in means of insulin delivery including, but not limited to, insulin pens, wearable mealtime insulin delivery patches, patch pumps, and conventional insulin pumps with continuous subcutaneous insulin infusion.

Association Between Cognitive Impairment and Blood Pressure Among Patients with Type II Diabetes Mellitus in Southern Iran

PURPOSE

Both type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and hypertension are regarded as life-threatening diseases known to be risk factors for vascular diseases. They may be associated with the increased risk of cognitive impairment (CI), although there are conflicting data relating hypertension to the risk of CI. Therefore, this study aimed to explore the probable association between hypertension and CI in patients with T2DM.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This cross-sectional study assessed the degree of CI of a total of 350 patients with T2DM using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE). In clinical examinations, the mean of the first, second, and third measurements of systolic and diastolic blood pressure (SBP and DBP) was recorded.

RESULTS

The mean of subjects' MMSE scores was 25.48 ± 3.73. Additionally, the means of SBPSs and DBPs were found to be 118.50 ± 17.27 and 73.47 ± 10.25 mmHg, respectively. The Spearman correlation coefficient showed a mild, significant, negative correlation between MMSE scores and those of SBP (r = -0.199, p <0.001) and DBP (r = -0.233, p <0.001). Accordingly, a 1-unit increase in one's SBP would lead to a significant rise in mild CI (2.8%) in comparison with subjects who have normal CIs. However, it was shown that if one's DBP increased by 1 unit, the odds of mild CI occurring would increase significantly by 6.7% compared with those who have normal CIs.

CONCLUSION

The present findings revealed that hypertension might be related to the development of CI in people with a diabetic condition, thus emphasizing the fact that the prevention and treatment of these highly prevalent diseases assume the utmost significance.

A review of the NG17 recommendations for the use of basal insulin in type 1 diabetes

AIMS

To revisit the data analysis used to inform National Institute of Health and Care Excellence (NICE) NG17 guidance for initiating basal insulin in adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus (diabetes).

METHODS

We replicated the data, methodology and analysis used by NICE diabetes in the NG17 network meta-analysis (NMA). We expanded this data cohort to a more contemporary data set (extended 2017 NMA) and restricted the studies included to improve the robustness of the data set (restricted 2017 NMA) and in a post hoc analysis, changed the index comparator from neutral protamine Hagedorn (NPH) insulin twice daily to insulin detemir twice daily.

RESULTS

The absolute changes in HbA1c were similar to those reported in the NG17. However, all 95% credible intervals for change in HbA1c point estimates crossed the line of null effect, except for detemir twice daily (in the NICE and extended 2017 NMAs) and NPH four times daily. In the detemir twice-daily centred post hoc analysis, the 95% credible intervals for change in HbA1c crossed the line of null effect for all basal therapies, except NPH.

CONCLUSIONS

In NG17, comparisons of basal insulins were based solely on efficacy of glycaemic control. Many of the trials used in this analysis were treat-to-target, which minimize differences in HbA1c . In the NMAs, statistical significance was severely undermined by the wide credible intervals. Despite these limitations, point estimates of HbA1c were used to rank the insulins and formed the basis of NG17 guidance. This study queries whether such analyses should be used to make specific clinical recommendations.

Evaluating the burden of poor glycemic control associated with therapeutic inertia in patients with type 2 diabetes in the UK

Background and aims: Effective glycemic control is the cornerstone of successful type 2 diabetes management. However, many patients fail to reach glycemic control targets, and therapeutic inertia (failure to intensify therapy to address poor glycemic control in a timely manner) has been widely reported. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the economic burden associated with diabetes-related complications due to poor glycemic control for patients with type 2 diabetes in the UK.Methods: A validated long-term model of type 2 diabetes (IQVIA CORE Diabetes Model) was used to project cost outcomes for a UK population with type 2 diabetes, based on data from The Health Improvement Network primary care database, at different levels of glycemic control. Costs associated with diabetes-related complications were accounted in 2017 Pounds Sterling (GBP). Complication costs were estimated for populations achieving different glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) targets, in a number of delayed treatment intensification scenarios, and across a range of time horizons.Results: For patients with an HbA1c level of 8.2% (66 mmol/mol), 7 years in poor control could increase mean costs associated with diabetes-related complications by over GBP 690 per patient and lead to costs of over GBP 1,500 in lost workplace productivity compared with achieving good glycemic control (HbA1c 7.0%, 53 mmol/mol) over a 10-year time horizon. Based on published estimates of the proportion of type 2 diabetes patients failing to meet glycemic targets in the UK, this corresponds to an additional economic burden of ∼GBP 2,600 million (complication costs plus lost productivity costs).Conclusions: The economic burden of poor glycemic control in type 2 diabetes in the UK is substantial. Efforts to avoid therapeutic inertia could substantially reduce diabetes-related complication costs even in the short-term.

Can You Repeat That? Exploring the Definition of a Successful Model Replication in Health Economics

The International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) modelling taskforce suggests decision models should be thoroughly reported and transparent. However, the level of transparency and indeed how transparency should be assessed are yet to be defined. One way may be to attempt to replicate the model and its outputs. The ability to replicate a decision model could demonstrate adequate reporting transparency. This review aims to explore published definitions of replication success across all scientific disciplines and to consider how such a definition should be tailored for use in health economic models. A literature review was conducted to identify published definitions of a 'successful replication'. Using these as a foundation, several definitions of replication success were constructed, to be applicable to replications of economic decision models, with the associated strengths and weaknesses of such definitions discussed. A substantial body of literature discussing replicability was found; however, relatively few studies, ten, explicitly defined a successful replication. These definitions varied from subjective assessments to expecting exactly the same results to be reproduced. Whilst the definitions that have been found may help to construct a definition specific to health economics, no definition was found that completely encompassed the unique requirements for decision models. Replication is widely discussed in other scientific disciplines; however, as of yet, there is no consensus on how replicable models should be within health economics or what constitutes a successful replication. Replication studies can demonstrate how transparently a model is reported, identify potential calculation errors and inform future reporting practices. It may therefore be a useful adjunct to other transparency or quality measures.

A modelling study of the budget impact of improved glycaemic control in adults with Type 1 diabetes in the UK

AIMS

To develop a novel interactive budget impact model that assesses affordability of diabetes treatments in specific populations, and to test the model in a hypothetical scenario by estimating cost savings resulting from reduction in HbA_1c from ≥69 mmol/mol (8.5%) to a target of 53 mmol/mol (7.0%) in adults with Type 1 diabetes in the UK.

METHODS

A dynamic, interactive model was created using the projected incidence and progression over a 5-year horizon of diabetes-related complications (micro- and macrovascular disease, severe hypoglycaemia and diabetic ketoacidosis) for different HbA_1c levels, with flexible input of population size, complications and therapy costs, HbA_1c distribution and other variables. The model took a National Health Service and societal perspective.

RESULTS

The model was developed, and in the proposed hypothetical situation, reductions in complications and expected costs evaluated. Achievement of target HbA_1c in individuals with HbA_1c ≥69 mmol/mol (8.5%) would reduce expected chronic complications from 6.8 to 1.2 events per 100 person-years, and diabetic ketoacidosis from 14.5 to 1.0 events per 100 person-years. Potential cumulative direct cost savings achievable in the modelled population were estimated at £687 m over 5 years (£5,585/person), with total (direct and indirect) savings of £1,034 m (£8,400/person).

CONCLUSIONS

Implementation of strategies aimed at achieving target glucose levels in people with Type 1 diabetes in the UK has the potential to drive a significant reduction in complication costs. This estimate may provide insights into the potential for investment in achieving savings through improved diabetes care in the UK.