Refugia and connectivity sustain amphibian metapopulations afflicted by disease

The importance of peripheral populations in the face of novel environmental change

Anthropogenically driven environmental change has imposed substantial threats on biodiversity, including the emergence of infectious diseases that have resulted in declines of wildlife globally. In response to pathogen invasion, maintaining diversity within host populations across heterogenous environments is essential to facilitating species persistence. White-nose syndrome is an emerging fungal pathogen that has caused mass mortalities of hibernating bats across North America. However, in the northeast, peripheral island populations of the endangered northern myotis (Myotis septentrionalis) appear to be persisting despite infection while mainland populations in the core of the species range have experienced sharp declines. Thus, this study investigated host and environmental factors that may contribute to divergent population responses. We compared patterns of pathogen exposure and infection intensity between populations and documented the environmental conditions and host activity patterns that may promote survival despite disease invasion. For island populations, we found lower prevalence and less severe infections, possibly due to a shorter hibernation duration compared to the mainland, which may reduce the time for disease progression. The coastal region of the northern myotis range may serve as habitat refugia that enables this species to persist despite pathogen exposure; however, conservation efforts could be critical to supporting species survival in the long term.

Evidence for a metal disease refuge: The amphibian-killing fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis) is inhibited by environmentally-relevant concentrations of metals tolerated by amphibians

The amphibian-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has caused substantial declines in Bd-susceptible amphibian species worldwide. However, some populations of Bd-susceptible frogs have managed to survive at existing metal-polluted sites, giving rise to the hypothesis that frogs might persist in the presence of Bd if Bd is inhibited by metals at concentrations that frogs can tolerate. We tested this hypothesis by measuring the survival of Bd zoospores, the life stage that infects amphibians, and calculated the LC50 after exposure to environmentally-relevant elevated concentrations of copper (Cu), zinc (Zn), and their combination (Cu + Zn) in two repeated 4-day acute exposure runs. We also measured the chronic sensitivity of Bd to these metals over three generations by measuring the number of colonies and live zoospores and calculating EC50 concentrations after 42 days of exposure. We then compared acute and chronic sensitivity of Bd with amphibian sensitivities by constructing species sensitivity distributions (SSDs) using LC50 and EC50 data obtained from the literature. Acute sensitivity data showed that Bd zoospore survival decreased with increasing metal concentrations and exposure durations relative to the control, with the highest LC50 values for Cu and Zn being 2.5 μg/L and 250 μg/L, respectively. Chronic exposures to metals resulted in decreased numbers of Bd colonies and live zoospores after 42 days, with EC50 values of 0.75 μg/L and 1.19 μg/L for Cu and Zn, respectively. Bd zoospore survival was 10 and 8 times more sensitive to Cu and Zn, respectively in acute, and 2 and 5 times more sensitive to Cu and Zn in chronic exposure experiments than the most sensitive amphibian species recorded. Our findings are consistent with the hypothesis that metals in existing metal-polluted sites may have a greater impact on Bd relative to amphibians' performance, potentially enabling Bd-susceptible amphibians to persist with Bd at these sites.

Reintroduction of resistant frogs facilitates landscape-scale recovery in the presence of a lethal fungal disease

Vast alteration of the biosphere by humans is causing a sixth mass extinction, driven in part by an increase in infectious diseases. The emergence of the lethal fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) has devastated global amphibian biodiversity. Given the lack of any broadly applicable methods to reverse these impacts, the future of many amphibians appears grim. The Sierra Nevada yellow-legged frog (Rana sierrae) is highly susceptible to Bd infection and most R. sierrae populations are extirpated following disease outbreaks. However, some populations persist and eventually recover, and frogs in these recovering populations have increased resistance against infection. Here, we conduct a 15-year reintroduction study and show that frogs collected from recovering populations and reintroduced to vacant habitats can reestablish populations despite the presence of Bd. In addition, the likelihood of establishment is influenced by site, cohort, and frog attributes. Results from viability modeling suggest that many reintroduced populations have a low probability of extinction over 50 years. These results provide a rare example of how reintroduction of resistant individuals can allow the landscape-scale recovery of disease-impacted species, and have broad implications for amphibians and other taxa that are threatened with extinction by novel pathogens.

Age truncation due to disease shrinks metapopulation viability for amphibians

Metapopulations often exist in a fragile balance between local extinctions and (re)colonisations, in which case emerging threats that alter species vital rates may drastically increase metapopulation extinction risk. We combined empirical data with metapopulation simulations to examine how demographic shifts associated with amphibian chytrid fungus (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, Bd) have altered metapopulation viability for threatened amphibians in Australia. Comparing the ages of museum specimens collected before Bd emerged in Australia with individuals from geographically matched remnant populations revealed significant truncation of age structures post-Bd, with a halving of annual adult survival probabilities. Spatially realistic metapopulation modelling demonstrated that reduced adult survival led to major reductions in the parameter space over which persistence was possible for the focal species, with contractions to landscapes with higher landscape connectivity, lower environmental stochasticity and considerably higher recruitment rates. Metapopulation persistence post-Bd required greater landscape connectivity than pre-Bd. This arises from a landscape-level analogue of compensatory recruitment at the population level, in which higher (re)colonisation rates can offset more frequent local extinctions, enabling persistence of amphibians susceptible to Bd. Interactions between recruitment rate, environmental stochasticity and landscape connectivity were also more important for metapopulation persistence post-Bd. Higher recruitment was required to mitigate the impacts of environmental stochasticity, and higher landscape connectivity was required to mitigate the impacts of environmental stochasticity and poor recruitment. Increased reliance on these interdependencies shrunk the parameter space over which metapopulations could persist post-Bd. Our study demonstrates that emerging threats that alter species vital rates can drastically reduce the capacity of certain environments to support metapopulations. For our focal species, reductions in adult survival rates due to Bd produced major reductions in the conditions under which persistence was possible, providing a mechanistic insight into the processes underpinning observed range and niche contractions of amphibians impacted by this pathogen. More broadly, our study illustrates how environmentally mediated host resilience can enable persistence following the emergence of novel pathogens. This pathway to persistence is worthy of greater attention on both conceptual and applied grounds.

Source-Sink Dynamics in a Two-Patch SI Epidemic Model with Life Stages and No Recovery from Infection

This study presents a comprehensive analysis of a two-patch, two-life stage SI model without recovery from infection, focusing on the dynamics of disease spread and host population viability in natural populations. The model, inspired by real-world ecological crises like the decline of amphibian populations due to chytridiomycosis and sea star populations due to Sea Star Wasting Disease, aims to understand the conditions under which a sink host population can present ecological rescue from a healthier, source population. Mathematical and numerical analyses reveal the critical roles of the basic reproductive numbers of the source and sink populations, the maturation rate, and the dispersal rate of juveniles in determining population outcomes. The study identifies basic reproduction numbers R 0 for each of the patches, and conditions for the basic reproduction numbers to produce a receiving patch under which its population. These findings provide insights into managing natural populations affected by disease, with implications for conservation strategies, such as the importance of maintaining reproductively viable refuge populations and considering the effects of dispersal and maturation rates on population recovery. The research underscores the complexity of host-pathogen dynamics in spatially structured environments and highlights the need for multi-faceted approaches to biodiversity conservation in the face of emerging diseases.

Hotspot shelters stimulate frog resistance to chytridiomycosis

Many threats to biodiversity cannot be eliminated; for example, invasive pathogens may be ubiquitous. Chytridiomycosis is a fungal disease that has spread worldwide, driving at least 90 amphibian species to extinction, and severely affecting hundreds of others1-4. Once the disease spreads to a new environment, it is likely to become a permanent part of that ecosystem. To enable coexistence with chytridiomycosis in the field, we devised an intervention that exploits host defences and pathogen vulnerabilities. Here we show that sunlight-heated artificial refugia attract endangered frogs and enable body temperatures high enough to clear infections, and that having recovered in this way, frogs are subsequently resistant to chytridiomycosis even under cool conditions that are optimal for fungal growth. Our results provide a simple, inexpensive and widely applicable strategy to buffer frogs against chytridiomycosis in nature. The refugia are immediately useful for the endangered species we tested and will have broader utility for amphibian species with similar ecologies. Furthermore, our concept could be applied to other wildlife diseases in which differences in host and pathogen physiologies can be exploited. The refugia are made from cheap and readily available materials and therefore could be rapidly adopted by wildlife managers and the public. In summary, habitat protection alone cannot protect species that are affected by invasive diseases, but simple manipulations to microhabitat structure could spell the difference between the extinction and the persistence of endangered amphibians.

The impacts of water quality on the amphibian chytrid fungal pathogen: A systematic review

The pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis has caused declines of amphibians worldwide. Yet our understanding of how water quality influences fungal pathogenicity is limited. Here, we reviewed experimental studies on the effect of water quality on this pathogen to determine which parameters impacted disease dynamics consistently. The strongest evidence for protective effects is salinity which shows strong antifungal properties in hosts at natural levels. Although many fungicides had detrimental effects on the fungal pathogen in vitro, their impact on the host is variable and they can worsen infection outcomes. However, one fungicide, epoxiconazole, reduced disease effects experimentally and likely in the field. While heavy metals are frequently studied, there is weak evidence that they influence infection outcomes. Nitrogen and phosphorous do not appear to impact pathogen growth or infection in the amphibian host. The effects of other chemicals, like pesticides and disinfectants on infection were mostly unclear with mixed results or lacking an in vivo component. Our study shows that water chemistry does impact disease dynamics, but the effects of specific parameters require more investigation. Improving our understanding of how water chemistry influences disease dynamics will help predict the impact of chytridiomycosis, especially in amphibian populations affected by land use changes.

Advances in Managing Chytridiomycosis for Australian Frogs: Gradarius Firmus Victoria

Extensive knowledge gains from research worldwide over the 25 years since the discovery of chytridiomycosis can be used for improved management. Strategies that have saved populations in the short term and/or enabled recovery include captive breeding, translocation into disease refugia, translocation from resistant populations, disease-free exclosures, and preservation of disease refuges with connectivity to previous habitat, while antifungal treatments have reduced mortality rates in the wild. Increasing host resistance is the goal of many strategies under development, including vaccination and targeted genetic interventions. Pathogen-directed strategies may be more challenging but would have broad applicability. While the search for the silver bullet solution continues, we should value targeted local interventions that stop extinction and buy time for evolution of resistance or development of novel solutions. As for most invasive species and infectious diseases, we need to accept that ongoing management is necessary. For species continuing to decline, proactive deployment and assessment of promising interventions are more valid than a hands-off, do-no-harm approach that will likely allow further extinctions.

An invasive pathogen drives directional niche contractions in amphibians

Global change is causing an unprecedented restructuring of ecosystems, with the spread of invasive species being a key driver. While population declines of native species due to invasives are well documented, much less is known about whether new biotic interactions reshape niches of native species. Here we quantify geographic range and realized-niche contractions in Australian frog species following the introduction of amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, a pathogen responsible for catastrophic amphibian declines worldwide. We show that chytrid-impacted species experienced proportionately greater contractions in niche breadth than geographic distribution following chytrid emergence. Furthermore, niche contractions were directional, with contemporary distributions of chytrid-impacted species characterized by higher temperatures, lower diurnal temperature range, higher precipitation and lower elevations. Areas with these conditions may enable host persistence with chytrid through lower pathogenicity of the fungus and/or greater demographic resilience. Nevertheless, contraction to a narrower subset of environmental conditions could increase host vulnerability to other threatening processes and should be considered in assessments of extinction risk and during conservation planning. More broadly, our results emphasize that biotic interactions can strongly shape species realized niches and that large-scale niche contractions due to new species interactions-particularly emerging pathogens-could be widespread.

The effect of salt dosing for chytrid mitigation on tadpoles of a threatened frog, Litoria aurea

The novel fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (chytrid) is one of the greatest threats to amphibians worldwide. Small increases in water salinity (up to ca. 4 ppt) have been shown to limit chytrid transmission between frogs, potentially providing a way to create environmental refugia to reduce its impact at a landscape scale. However, the effect of increasing water salinity on tadpoles, a life stage confined to water, is highly variable. Increased water salinity can lead to reduced size and altered growth patterns in some species, with flow-on effects to vital rates such as survival and reproduction. It is thus important to assess potential trade-offs caused by increasing salinity as a tool to mitigate chytrid in susceptible frogs. We conducted laboratory experiments to examine the effects of salinity on the survival and development of tadpoles of a threatened frog (Litoria aurea), previously demonstrated as a suitable candidate for trialling landscape manipulations to mitigate chytrid. We exposed tadpoles to salinity ranging from 1 to 6 ppt and measured survival, time to metamorphosis, body mass and locomotor performance of post-metamorphic frogs as a measure of fitness. Survival and time to metamorphosis did not differ between salinity treatments or controls reared in rainwater. Body mass was positively associated with increasing salinity in the first 14 days. Juvenile frogs from three salinity treatments also showed the same or better locomotor performance compared to rainwater controls, confirming that environmental salinity may influence life history traits in the larval stage, potentially as a hormetic response. Our research suggests that salt concentrations in the range previously shown to improve survival of frogs in the presence of chytrid are unlikely to impact larval development of our candidate threatened species. Our study lends support to the idea of manipulating salinity to create environmental refugia from chytrid for at least some salt-tolerant species.

Demystifying ecological connectivity for actionable spatial conservation planning

Connectivity underpins the persistence of life; it needs to inform biodiversity conservation decisions. Yet, when prioritising conservation areas and developing actions, connectivity is not being operationalised in spatial planning. The challenge is the translation of flows associated with connectivity into conservation objectives that lead to actions. Connectivity is nebulous, it can be abstract and mean different things to different people, making it difficult to include in conservation problems. Here, we show how connectivity can be included in mathematically defining conservation planning objectives. We provide a path forward for linking connectivity to high-level conservation goals, such as increasing species' persistence. We propose ways to design spatial management areas that gain biodiversity benefit from connectivity.

Wetland cohesion is associated with increased probability of infection by the amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

The amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) poses a substantial threat to amphibian populations. Understanding the landscape conditions that facilitate Bd transmission and persistence is crucial for predicting Bd trends in amphibian populations. Here, we investigated the interactions between land use, wetland connectivity, and Bd occurrence and infection intensity. In northeastern Massachusetts, we sampled Pseudacris crucifer, Lithobates sylvaticus, L. clamitans, and L. pipiens from 24 sites. We found an overall 30.6% Bd prevalence at our sites, with prevalence differing among species. Bd occurrence increased with wetland-patch cohesion, potentially due to microclimate shifts from decreased forest or changes in host movement. Bd infection intensity was not mediated by landscape context. Overall, our results highlight the importance of landscape structure for Bd dynamics, suggesting that certain landscapes may facilitate transmission and harbor Bd more than others. To mitigate the impacts of Bd on amphibian populations, conservation efforts should account for interactions between Bd and landscape variables.

Age structure of amphibian populations with endemic chytridiomycosis, across climatic regions with markedly different infection risk

Threatening processes, such as disease, can drive major changes in population demographics of the host. Chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has led to the decline of at least 500 amphibian species across the globe and has been shown to truncate host age structure by lowering adult survival rates. This results in heavy reliance on annual recruitment and the inability to recover in the event of periodic recruitment failure. We used skeletochronology to determine the age structure, growth, and survival rates of populations of an endangered amphibian, Litoria raniformis, with endemic chytridiomycosis, across two climatically disparate regions in south-eastern Australia: semi-arid and temperate. Contrary to predictions, populations in the semi-arid region (in which chytrid prevalence is substantially lower due to high temperatures) displayed a more truncated age structure than populations in the temperate study regions. Maximum recorded age was only two years in the semi-arid region compared with up to four years in the temperate region. Wetland hydroperiod and average seasonal air temperature were correlated with age, and males had a slightly higher survival rate than females (0.31 for males and 0.27 for females). Despite the previously documented differences in chytrid prevalence between the two climatic regions, water availability and wetland hydroperiods appear the over-riding determinants of the age structure and survival rates of L. raniformis. Targeted management which ensures water availability and improves survival of 1-year-old frogs into their second and third breeding season would reduce the impact of stochastic events on L. raniformis, and this may be true for numerous frog species susceptible to chytridiomycosis.

Host traits and environment interact to determine persistence of bat populations impacted by white-nose syndrome

Emerging infectious diseases have resulted in severe population declines across diverse taxa. In some instances, despite attributes associated with high extinction risk, disease emergence and host declines are followed by host stabilisation for unknown reasons. While host, pathogen, and the environment are recognised as important factors that interact to determine host-pathogen coexistence, they are often considered independently. Here, we use a translocation experiment to disentangle the role of host traits and environmental conditions in driving the persistence of remnant bat populations a decade after they declined 70-99% due to white-nose syndrome and subsequently stabilised. While survival was significantly higher than during the initial epidemic within all sites, protection from severe disease only existed within a narrow environmental space, suggesting host traits conducive to surviving disease are highly environmentally dependent. Ultimately, population persistence following pathogen invasion is the product of host-pathogen interactions that vary across a patchwork of environments.

Resilience of native amphibian communities following catastrophic drought: Evidence from a decade of regional-scale monitoring

The increasing frequency and severity of drought may exacerbate ongoing global amphibian declines. However, interactions between drought and coincident stressors, coupled with high interannual variability in amphibian abundances, can mask the extent and underlying mechanisms of drought impacts. We synthesized a decade (2009 - 2019) of regional-scale amphibian monitoring data (2273 surveys, 233 ponds, and seven species) from across California's Bay Area and used dynamic occupancy modeling to estimate trends and drivers of species occupancy. An extreme drought during the study period resulted in substantial habitat loss, with 51% of ponds drying in the worst year of drought, compared to <20% in pre-drought years. Nearly every species exhibited reduced breeding activity during the drought, with the occupancy of some species (American bullfrogs and California newts) declining by >25%. Invasive fishes and bullfrogs were also associated with reduced amphibian occupancy, and these taxa were locally extirpated from numerous sites during drought, without subsequent recovery-suggesting that drought may present an opportunity to remove invaders. Despite a historic, multi-year drought, native amphibians rebounded quickly to pre-drought occupancy levels, demonstrating evidence of resilience. Permanent waterbodies supported higher persistence of native species during drought years than did temporary waterbodies, and we therefore highlight the value of hydroperiod diversity in promoting amphibian stability.

Can dynamic occupancy models improve predictions of species' range dynamics? A test using Swiss birds

Predictions of species' current and future ranges are needed to effectively manage species under environmental change. Species ranges are typically estimated using correlative species distribution models (SDMs), which have been criticized for their static nature. In contrast, dynamic occupancy models (DOMs) explicitily describe temporal changes in species' occupancy via colonization and local extinction probabilities, estimated from time series of occurrence data. Yet, tests of whether these models improve predictive accuracy under current or future conditions are rare. Using a long-term data set on 69 Swiss birds, we tested whether DOMs improve the predictions of distribution changes over time compared to SDMs. We evaluated the accuracy of spatial predictions and their ability to detect population trends. We also explored how predictions differed when we accounted for imperfect detection and parameterized models using calibration data sets of different time series lengths. All model types had high spatial predictive performance when assessed across all sites (mean AUC > 0.8), with flexible machine learning SDM algorithms outperforming parametric static and DOMs. However, none of the models performed well at identifying sites where range changes are likely to occur. In terms of estimating population trends, DOMs performed best, particularly for species with strong population changes and when fit with sufficient data, while static SDMs performed very poorly. Overall, our study highlights the importance of considering what aspects of performance matter most when selecting a modelling method for a particular application and the need for further research to improve model utility. While DOMs show promise for capturing range dynamics and inferring population trends when fitted with sufficient data, computational constraints on variable selection and model fitting can lead to reduced spatial accuracy of predictions, an area warranting more attention.

TEMPERATURE AS A DRIVER OF THE PATHOGENICITY AND VIRULENCE OF AMPHIBIAN CHYTRID FUNGUS BATRACHOCHYTRIUM DENDROBATIDIS: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW

Chytridiomycosis, caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), is a leading cause of global amphibian declines. Severe infections with Bd can lead to cardiac arrest, and mass deaths during epidemics have been reported. Temperature, pH, salinity, and moisture are important determinants of the survival, growth, reproduction, and pathogenicity of Bd, as well as its effect on amphibian populations. Here, we synthesize current knowledge on the role of temperature as a driver of the pathogenicity and virulence of Bd to better understand the effects of temperature on amphibian defense mechanisms against infection. This review advises on research direction and management approaches to benefit amphibian populations affected by Bd. We conclude by offering guidelines for four levels of temperature monitoring in amphibian field studies to improve consistency between studies: regional climate, habitat, microhabitat, and amphibian host.

HIGHER INFECTION PREVALENCE IN AMPHIBIANS INHABITING HUMAN-MADE COMPARED TO NATURAL WETLANDS

It is unclear how suitable human-made wetlands are for supporting wildlife and how they impact wildlife disease risk. Natural wetlands (those that were created without human actions) can support more diverse and resilient communities that are at lower risk of disease outbreaks. We compared frog community composition and infection with the pathogenic fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) between human-made and natural wetlands in Tippecanoe County, Indiana, US. We conducted visual encounter surveys of frog communities and quantified Bd infection prevalence at four natural and five human-made wetlands. Water parameters associated with human practices (e.g., pH, salinity) and surrounding land use were also compared across sites. We found higher Bd infection prevalence at human-made sites than at natural sites, with monthly differences showing highest infection in spring and fall, and decreasing infection with increasing water temperature. However, we found no differences between human-made and natural sites regarding amphibian community composition, water quality, or surrounding land use. Further, we found frog density increased with distance to nearest roads among both human-made and natural sites. These findings might suggest that human-made wetlands can support frog communities similar to natural wetlands, but pose a greater risk of Bd infection.

Niche Contraction of an Endangered Frog Driven by the Amphibian Chytrid Fungus

Introduced pathogens can alter the geographic distribution of susceptible host species. For example, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a fungal pathogen that has been linked to the global decline and extinction of numerous amphibian species during the last four decades. A growing number of studies have described the distribution of Bd and susceptible hosts across the globe; however, knowledge on how Bd may shape the climatic niche of susceptible species is still missing. We estimated the effect of Bd on the geographic distribution and niche dynamics of the critically endangered lowland robber frog (Craugastor ranoides) in Costa Rica. We found a reduction of 98% in the geographic range of this species by 1995, following the epizootic outbreaks of Bd that affected Costa Rica in the 1980 and early 1990s. We also quantified niche contraction and found that the species is currently restricted to dry and warm environments that have been considered unsuitable for Bd. Our results contribute to the understanding of how emerging pathogens shape the climatic niches and geographic distribution of susceptible species.

Metapopulation ecology links antibiotic resistance, consumption, and patient transfers in a network of hospital wards

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global threat. A better understanding of how antibiotic use and between-ward patient transfers (or connectivity) impact population-level AMR in hospital networks can help optimize antibiotic stewardship and infection control strategies. Here, we used a metapopulation framework to explain variations in the incidence of infections caused by seven major bacterial species and their drug-resistant variants in a network of 357 hospital wards. We found that ward-level antibiotic consumption volume had a stronger influence on the incidence of the more resistant pathogens, while connectivity had the most influence on hospital-endemic species and carbapenem-resistant pathogens. Piperacillin-tazobactam consumption was the strongest predictor of the cumulative incidence of infections resistant to empirical sepsis therapy. Our data provide evidence that both antibiotic use and connectivity measurably influence hospital AMR. Finally, we provide a ranking of key antibiotics by their estimated population-level impact on AMR that might help inform antimicrobial stewardship strategies.

Mechanisms underlying host persistence following amphibian disease emergence determine appropriate management strategies

Emerging infectious diseases have caused many species declines, changes in communities and even extinctions. There are also many species that persist following devastating declines due to disease. The broad mechanisms that enable host persistence following declines include evolution of resistance or tolerance, changes in immunity and behaviour, compensatory recruitment, pathogen attenuation, environmental refugia, density-dependent transmission and changes in community composition. Here we examine the case of chytridiomycosis, the most important wildlife disease of the past century. We review the full breadth of mechanisms allowing host persistence, and synthesise research on host, pathogen, environmental and community factors driving persistence following chytridiomycosis-related declines and overview the current evidence and the information required to support each mechanism. We found that for most species the mechanisms facilitating persistence have not been identified. We illustrate how the mechanisms that drive long-term host population dynamics determine the most effective conservation management strategies. Therefore, understanding mechanisms of host persistence is important because many species continue to be threatened by disease, some of which will require intervention. The conceptual framework we describe is broadly applicable to other novel disease systems.

Connectivity over a disease risk gradient enables recovery of rainforest frogs

Chytridiomycosis has been a key driver of global frog declines and extinctions, particularly for high-altitude populations across Australia and the Americas. While recent evidence shows some species are recovering, the extent of such recoveries and the mechanisms underpinning them remain poorly resolved. We surveyed the historical latitudinal and elevational range of four Australian rainforest frogs that disappeared from upland sites between 1989 and 1994 to establish their contemporary distribution and elevational limits, and investigate factors affecting population recovery. Five rainforest streams were surveyed from mountain-base to summit (30 sites in total), with swabs collected from the target species (Litoria dayi, L. nannotis, L. rheocola, and L. serrata) to determine their infection status, and data loggers deployed to measure microclimatic variation across the elevational gradient. Infection probability increased with elevation and canopy cover as it was tightly and inversely correlated with stream-side air temperature. Occupancy patterns suggest varying responses to this disease threat gradient. Two species, L. rheocola and L. serrata, were found over their full historical elevational range (≥1,000 m above sea level [asl]), while L. dayi was not detected above 400 m (formerly known up to 900 m asl) and L. nannotis was not detected above 800 m (formerly known up to 1,200 m asl). Site occupancy probability was negatively related to predicted infection prevalence for L. dayi, L. nannotis, and L. rheocola, but not L. serrata, which appears to now tolerate high fungal burdens. This study highlights the importance of environmental refuges and connectivity across disease risk gradients for the persistence and natural recovery of frogs susceptible to chytridiomycosis. Likewise, in documenting both interspecific variation in recovery rates and intraspecific differences between sites, this study suggests interactions between disease threats and host selection exist that could be manipulated. For example, translocations may be warranted where connectivity is poor or the increase in disease risk is too steep to allow recolonization, combined with assisted selection or use of founders from populations that have already undergone natural selection.

Fish out of water: Aquatic parasites in a drying world

Although freshwater ecosystems are among the most diverse and endangered in the world, little attention has been paid to either the importance of parasitic disease as a threatening process for freshwater organisms, or the co-extinction risk of freshwater parasites. In this review, we use theoretical and empirical studies of host/parasite interactions to examine these issues, particularly with respect to the threat posed by climate change to fish and parasite communities in intermittent rivers. Intermittent rivers are those that cease to flow at any point in time or space, with isolated pools providing ecological refuges for freshwater biota between streamflow events. Intermittent rivers are the dominant river type in arid, semi-arid and Mediterranean regions; areas of the world that have experienced dramatic decreases in streamflow as a result of climate change. Reduced streamflow decreases the number, size and connectivity of refuge pools in intermittent rivers, with important consequences for free-living aquatic organisms, particularly fishes, and their parasitic fauna. As a result of more frequent and sustained periods of no flow, parasite diversity within refuge pools is expected to decrease, with a concomitant increase in the prevalence and intensity of those parasite species which do survive, particularly host generalists. Decreased connectivity between refuge pool communities should increase the spatial modularity of host/parasite interactions, leading to a greater structuring of host and parasite communities along the river. This increases the probability of species loss (for both hosts and their parasites), as local extinctions cannot be reversed by colonisation from other localities.

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Parasites in intermittent rivers must adapt to alternating lotic and lentic conditions.

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A drying climate will decrease number, size and connectivity of lentic refuges.

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As a result, parasite α-diversity will decrease, but β-diversity will increase.

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Increased parasite abundance in refuge pools may drive hosts to local extinction.

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Increased modularity of interactions increases host and parasite extinction risk.

Habitat fragmentation changes top-down and bottom-up controls of food webs

Top-down and bottom-up controls regulate the structure and stability of ecosystems, but their relative roles in terrestrial systems have been debated. Here we studied a hydro-inundated land-bridge system in subtropical China and tested the relative importance of these two controls in determining the rodent-mediated regeneration of a locally dominant tree species. Our results showed that both controls operated in terrestrial habitats and that their relative importance switched as habitat size changed. Habitat loss initially removed predators of rodents that released rodent populations and triggered massive seed predation (top-down control), leading to reduced seedling establishment. A further reduction in habitat size led to decrease in rodent population that was supposed to increase seedling survival of the tree species, but the decline in habitat size deteriorated the abiotic environments (bottom-up control) that severely prevented seedling recruitment. As the ongoing global land use change is creating increasing number of small-sized forest fragments, our findings provide novel insights into the restoration of seriously fragmented forests.

Population stability in an unmanaged population of the green and golden bell frog in northern New South Wales, Australia

Population monitoring is required to guide conservation programs. We conducted a capture–mark–recapture study of a population of the vulnerable green and golden bell frog (Litoria aurea) at the northern end of its range. Frogs were captured and marked over three breeding seasons (2015/16, 2016/17, 2017/18) in a large coastal lagoon. We aimed to: (1) produce annual estimates of population size to describe population trajectory, and (2) investigate monthly variation in abundance, capture probability, and temporary emigration to understand how these factors change at a finer temporal scale. Frog abundance varied across the three annual breeding seasons: 60–280 adult males, 120–190 adult females, and 90–420 subadults. We infer that the population is stable because adult abundance estimates were higher after 2015/16. Because our study sampled only half the available breeding habitat, the overall population may number 350–850 adults. Our modelling revealed &gt;40 males but &lt;20 females were detected in the sample area in our monthly samples. Estimates of temporary emigration were high (males: 0.54; females: 0.79), suggesting behaviour that made frogs unavailable for capture between months. Our results suggest that monitoring at greater than annual intervals should be adequate to monitor the future trend of this population.

Amphibian fungal panzootic causes catastrophic and ongoing loss of biodiversity

Anthropogenic trade and development have broken down dispersal barriers, facilitating the spread of diseases that threaten Earth's biodiversity. We present a global, quantitative assessment of the amphibian chytridiomycosis panzootic, one of the most impactful examples of disease spread, and demonstrate its role in the decline of at least 501 amphibian species over the past half-century, including 90 presumed extinctions. The effects of chytridiomycosis have been greatest in large-bodied, range-restricted anurans in wet climates in the Americas and Australia. Declines peaked in the 1980s, and only 12% of declined species show signs of recovery, whereas 39% are experiencing ongoing decline. There is risk of further chytridiomycosis outbreaks in new areas. The chytridiomycosis panzootic represents the greatest recorded loss of biodiversity attributable to a disease.

Fitter frogs from polluted ponds: The complex impacts of human-altered environments

Human-modified habitats rarely yield outcomes that are aligned with conservation ideals. Landscapes that are subdivided by roads are no exception, precipitating negative impacts on populations due to fragmentation, pollution, and road kill. Although many populations in human-modified habitats show evidence for local adaptation, rarely does environmental change yield outright benefits for populations of conservation interest. Contrary to expectations, we report surprising benefits experienced by amphibian populations breeding and dwelling in proximity to roads. We show that roadside populations of the wood frog, Rana sylvatica, exhibit better locomotor performance and higher measures of traits related to fitness compared with frogs from less disturbed environments located further away from roads. These results contrast previous evidence for maladaptation in roadside populations of wood frogs studied elsewhere. Our results indicate that altered habitats might not be unequivocally detrimental and at times might contribute to metapopulation success. While the frequency of such beneficial outcomes remains unknown, their occurrence underscores the complexity of inferring consequences of environmental change.

The role of spatial structure in the collapse of regional metapopulations

Many wildlife populations are either naturally, or as a result of human land use, patchily distributed in space. The degree of fragmentation-specifically the remaining patch sizes and habitat configuration-is an important part of population dynamics. Demographic stochasticity is also likely to play an important role in patchy habitats that host small local populations. We develop a simulation model to evaluate the significance of demographic stochasticity and the role fragmentation plays in the determination of population dynamics and the risk of extinction of populations on habitat patches. Our model is formulated as a Markov-chain stochastic process on a finite, spatially explicit array of patches in which probability of successful dispersal is a function of interpatch distance. Unlike past work, we explicitly model local population dynamics and examine how these scale up to the entire population. As a test case, we apply the model to the American pika (Ochotona princeps) population living on the ore dumps in the ghost mining town of Bodie, California. This population has been studied nearly continuously for over four decades and has been of conservation concern as the southern half of the population declined precipitously beginning in 1989. Our model suggests that both the specific configuration of habitat and landscape heterogeneity are necessary and sufficient predictors of the eventual extinction of the southern constellation of patches. This example has important implications, as it suggests that fragmentation alone can lead to regional extinctions within metapopulations.

Effects of host species and environmental factors on the prevalence of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis in northern Europe

The fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) poses a major threat to amphibian populations. To assist efforts to address such threats, we examined differences in Bd host infection prevalence among amphibian species and its relations to both local environmental factors in breeding habitats and landscape variables measured at three scales (500, 2000 and 5000 m radii) around breeding sites in southernmost Sweden. We sampled 947 anurans of six species in 31 ponds and assessed their infection status. We then examined correlations of infection prevalence with canopy cover, pond perimeter and pH (treated as local-scale pond characteristics), and the number of ponds, area of arable land, area of mature forest, number of resident people and presence of sea within the three radii (treated as landscape variables). The Bd infection prevalence was very low, 0.5–1.0%, in two of the six anuran species (Bufo bufo and Rana temporaria), and substantially higher (13–64%) in the other four (Bombina bombina, Bufotes variabilis, Epidalea calamita, Rana arvalis). In the latter four species Bd infection prevalence was positively associated with ponds’ pH (site range: 5.3–8.1), and negatively associated with areas of mature forest and/or wetlands in the surroundings. Our results show that the infection dynamics of Bd are complex and associated with host species, local pond characteristics and several landscape variables at larger spatial scales. Knowledge of environmental factors associated with Bd infections and differences in species’ susceptibility may help to counter further spread of the disease and guide conservation action plans, especially for the most threatened species.

Climate structuring of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis infection in the threatened amphibians of the northern Western Ghats, India

Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is a pathogen killing amphibians worldwide. Its impact across much of Asia is poorly characterized. This study systematically surveyed amphibians for Bd across rocky plateaus in the northern section of the Western Ghats biodiversity hotspot, India, including the first surveys of the plateaus in the coastal region. These ecosystems offer an epidemiological model system since they are characterized by differing levels of connectivity, edaphic and climatic conditions, and anthropogenic stressors. One hundred and eighteen individuals of 21 species of Anura and Apoda on 13 plateaus ranging from 67 to 1179 m above sea level and 15.89 to 17.92° North latitude were sampled. Using qPCR protocols, 79% of species and 27% of individuals tested were positive for Bd. This is the first record of Bd in caecilians in India, the Critically Endangered Xanthophryne tigerina and Endangered Fejervarya cf. sahyadris. Mean site prevalence was 28.15%. Prevalence below the escarpment was 31.2% and 25.4% above. The intensity of infection (GE) showed the reverse pattern. Infection may be related to elevational temperature changes, thermal exclusion, inter-site connectivity and anthropogenic disturbance. Coastal plateaus may be thermal refuges from Bd. Infected amphibians represented a wide range of ecological traits posing interesting questions about transmission routes.

Increasing connectivity between metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology

Metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology aim to understand how spatial structure influences ecological processes, yet these disciplines address the problem using fundamentally different modeling approaches. Metapopulation models describe how the spatial distribution of patches affects colonization and extinction, but often do not account for the heterogeneity in the landscape between patches. Models in landscape ecology use detailed descriptions of landscape structure, but often without considering colonization and extinction dynamics. We present a novel spatially explicit modeling framework for narrowing the divide between these disciplines to advance understanding of the effects of landscape structure on metapopulation dynamics. Unlike previous efforts, this framework allows for statistical inference on landscape resistance to colonization using empirical data. We demonstrate the approach using 11 yr of data on a threatened amphibian in a desert ecosystem. Occupancy data for Lithobates chiricahuensis (Chiricahua leopard frog) were collected on the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR), Arizona, USA from 2007 to 2017 following a reintroduction in 2003. Results indicated that colonization dynamics were influenced by both patch characteristics and landscape structure. Landscape resistance increased with increasing elevation and distance to the nearest streambed. Colonization rate was also influenced by patch quality, with semi-permanent and permanent ponds contributing substantially more to the colonization of neighboring ponds relative to intermittent ponds. Ponds that only hold water intermittently also had the highest extinction rate. Our modeling framework can be widely applied to understand metapopulation dynamics in complex landscapes, particularly in systems in which the environment between habitat patches influences the colonization process.

Optimal timing of biodiversity offsetting for metapopulations

Biodiversity offsetting schemes permit habitat destruction, provided that losses are compensated by gains elsewhere. While hundreds of offsetting schemes are used around the globe, the optimal timing of habitat creation in such projects is poorly understood. Here, we developed a spatially explicit metapopulation model for a single species subject to a habitat compensation scheme. Managers could compensate for destruction of a patch by creating a new patch either before, at the time of, or after patch loss. Delaying patch creation is intuitively detrimental to species persistence, but allowed managers to invest financial compensation, accrue interest, and create a larger patch at a later date. Using stochastic dynamic programming, we found the optimal timing of patch creation that maximizes the number of patches occupied at the end of a 50-yr habitat compensation scheme when a patch is destroyed after 10 yr. Two case studies were developed for Australian species subject to habitat loss but with very different traits: the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis) and the critically endangered Mount Lofty Ranges Southern Emu-wren (Spititurus malachurus intermedius). Our results show that adding a patch either before or well after habitat destruction can be optimal, depending on the occupancy state of the metapopulation, the interest rate, the area of the destroyed patch and metapopulation parameters of the focal species. Generally, it was better to delay patch creation when the interest rate was high, when the species had a relatively high colonization rate, when the patch nearest the new patch was occupied, and when the destroyed patch was small. Our framework can be applied to single-species metapopulations subject to habitat loss, and demonstrates that considering the timing of habitat compensation could improve the effectiveness of offsetting schemes.

Connectivity and systemic resilience of the Great Barrier Reef

Australia’s iconic Great Barrier Reef (GBR) continues to suffer from repeated impacts of cyclones, coral bleaching, and outbreaks of the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish (COTS), losing much of its coral cover in the process. This raises the question of the ecosystem’s systemic resilience and its ability to rebound after large-scale population loss. Here, we reveal that around 100 reefs of the GBR, or around 3%, have the ideal properties to facilitate recovery of disturbed areas, thereby imparting a level of systemic resilience and aiding its continued recovery. These reefs (1) are highly connected by ocean currents to the wider reef network, (2) have a relatively low risk of exposure to disturbances so that they are likely to provide replenishment when other reefs are depleted, and (3) have an ability to promote recovery of desirable species but are unlikely to either experience or spread COTS outbreaks. The great replenishment potential of these ‘robust source reefs’, which may supply 47% of the ecosystem in a single dispersal event, emerges from the interaction between oceanographic conditions and geographic location, a process that is likely to be repeated in other reef systems. Such natural resilience of reef systems will become increasingly important as the frequency of disturbances accelerates under climate change.

Australia’s Great Barrier Reef is a large coral ecosystem consisting of more than 3,800 reefs. Coral populations inhabiting these reefs are connected by larvae that are dispersed by ocean currents. Modelling regional connectivity patterns reveals reefs that can act as prominent larval sources and supply larvae to other coral populations in the area. Coral populations on reefs are also subject to various disturbances, such as bleaching and outbreaks of the coral-eating crown-of-thorns starfish. These disturbances tend to have spatially explicit patterns, resulting in different levels of impact among reefs. In this study, we first use high-resolution dispersal simulations of larvae to identify the reefs most likely to support regional recovery processes due to their high connectivity. We then use oceanographic and climate models to show which reefs are likely to have a lower risk of exposure to coral bleaching and starfish outbreaks. Finally, we combine these results to find reefs that are not only likely to be good sources by being well connected but also more likely to have adult breeding stocks needed to provide the necessary larval supply. This information can support decision-making that aims to allocate management resources and prioritise sites important for the resilience of the entire reef system.

Dynamic, spatial models of parasite transmission in wildlife: Their structure, applications and remaining challenges

Individual differences in contact rate can arise from host, group and landscape heterogeneity and can result in different patterns of spatial spread for diseases in wildlife populations with concomitant implications for disease control in wildlife of conservation concern, livestock and humans. While dynamic disease models can provide a better understanding of the drivers of spatial spread, the effects of landscape heterogeneity have only been modelled in a few well-studied wildlife systems such as rabies and bovine tuberculosis. Such spatial models tend to be either purely theoretical with intrinsic limiting assumptions or individual-based models that are often highly species- and system-specific, limiting the breadth of their utility. Our goal was to review studies that have utilized dynamic, spatial models to answer questions about pathogen transmission in wildlife and identify key gaps in the literature. We begin by providing an overview of the main types of dynamic, spatial models (e.g., metapopulation, network, lattice, cellular automata, individual-based and continuous-space) and their relation to each other. We investigate different types of ecological questions that these models have been used to explore: pathogen invasion dynamics and range expansion, spatial heterogeneity and pathogen persistence, the implications of management and intervention strategies and the role of evolution in host-pathogen dynamics. We reviewed 168 studies that consider pathogen transmission in free-ranging wildlife and classify them by the model type employed, the focal host-pathogen system, and their overall research themes and motivation. We observed a significant focus on mammalian hosts, a few well-studied or purely theoretical pathogen systems, and a lack of studies occurring at the wildlife-public health or wildlife-livestock interfaces. Finally, we discuss challenges and future directions in the context of unprecedented human-mediated environmental change. Spatial models may provide new insights into understanding, for example, how global warming and habitat disturbance contribute to disease maintenance and emergence. Moving forward, better integration of dynamic, spatial disease models with approaches from movement ecology, landscape genetics/genomics and ecoimmunology may provide new avenues for investigation and aid in the control of zoonotic and emerging infectious diseases.

Navigating the pitfalls and promise of landscape genetics

The field of landscape genetics has been evolving rapidly since its emergence in the early 2000s. New applications, techniques and criticisms of techniques appear like clockwork with each new journal issue. The developments are an encouraging, and at times bewildering, sign of progress in an exciting new field of study. However, we suggest that the rapid expansion of landscape genetics has belied important flaws in the development of the field, and we add an air of caution to this breakneck pace of expansion. Specifically, landscape genetic studies often lose sight of the fundamental principles and complex consequences of gene flow, instead favouring simplistic interpretations and broad inferences not necessarily warranted by the data. Here, we describe common pitfalls that characterize such studies, and provide practical guidance to improve landscape genetic investigation, with careful consideration of inferential limits, scale, replication, and the ecological and evolutionary context of spatial genetic patterns. Ultimately, the utility of landscape genetics will depend on translating the relationship between gene flow and landscape features into an understanding of long-term population outcomes. We hope the perspective presented here will steer landscape genetics down a more scientifically sound and productive path, garnering a field that is as informative in the future as it is popular now.