Process-explicit models reveal pathway to extinction for woolly mammoth using pattern-oriented validation

Was extinction of New Zealand's avian megafauna an unavoidable consequence of human arrival?

Human overexploitation contributed strongly to the loss of hundreds of bird species across Oceania, including nine giant, flightless birds called moa. The inevitability of anthropogenic moa extinctions in New Zealand has been fiercely debated. However, we can now rigorously evaluate their extinction drivers using spatially explicit demographic models capturing species-specific interactions between moa, natural climates and landscapes, and human colonists. By modelling the spatial abundance and extinction dynamics of six species of moa, validated against demographic and distributional inferences from the fossil record, we test whether their extinctions could have been avoided if human colonists moderated their hunting behaviours. We show that harvest rates of both moa birds (adults and subadults) and eggs are likely to have been low, varying between 4.0-6.0 % for birds and 2.5-12.0 % for eggs, annually. Our modelling, however, indicates that extinctions of moa could only have been avoided if Polynesian colonists maintained unrealistically expansive no-take zones (covering at least half of New Zealand's land area) and held their annual harvest rates to implausible levels (just 1 % of bird populations per annum). Although too late for moa, these insights provide valuable lessons and new computational approaches for conserving today's endangered megafauna.

Identifying species traits that predict vulnerability to climate change

Accurately predicting the vulnerabilities of species to climate change requires a more detailed understanding of the functional and life-history traits that make some species more susceptible to declines and extinctions in shifting climates. This is because existing trait-based correlates of extinction risk from climate and environmental disturbances vary widely, often being idiosyncratic and context dependent. A powerful solution is to analyse the growing volume of biological data on changes in species ranges and abundances using process-explicit ecological models that run at fine temporal and spatial scales and across large geographical extents. These simulation-based approaches can unpack complex interactions between species' traits and climate and other threats. This enables species-responses to climatic change to be contextualised and integrated into future biodiversity projections and to be used to formulate and assess conservation policy goals. By providing a more complete understanding of the traits and contexts that regulate different responses of species to climate change, these process-driven approaches are likely to result in more certain predictions of the species that are most vulnerable to climate change.

Large-scale fossil records analysis reveals prehistoric extinction mechanisms of woolly rhinoceros (Coelodonta antiquitatis)

Climate oscillations and prehistoric human activity during the Middle-Late Pleistocene profoundly affected the population fluctuations and extinctions of megafauna, especially the extinct woolly rhinoceros. Fordham et al. (2024) recently proposed new solutions based on fossil records, paleoclimates, and prehistoric human activities data to reconstruct an explicit process-driven model, resulting in high-resolution population dynamics of the woolly rhinoceros. This study revealed the mechanisms of the woolly rhinoceros extinction: climate-driven habitat fragmentation combined with low but persistent levels of human hunting weakened metapopulation processes, leading to their extinction.

On the Dynamics of Mortality and the Ephemeral Nature of Mammalian Megafauna

AbstractEnergy flow through consumer-resource interactions is largely determined by body size. Allometric relationships govern the dynamics of populations by impacting rates of reproduction as well as alternative sources of mortality, which have differential impacts on smaller to larger organisms. Here we derive and investigate the timescales associated with four alternative sources of mortality for terrestrial mammals: mortality from starvation, mortality associated with aging, mortality from consumption by predators, and mortality introduced by anthropogenic subsidized harvest. The incorporation of these allometric relationships into a minimal consumer-resource model illuminates central constraints that may contribute to the structure of mammalian communities. Our framework reveals that while starvation largely impacts smaller-bodied species, the allometry of senescence is expected to be more difficult to observe. In contrast, external predation and subsidized harvest have greater impacts on the populations of larger-bodied species. Moreover, the inclusion of predation mortality reveals mass thresholds for mammalian herbivores, where dynamic instabilities may limit the feasibility of megafaunal populations. We show how these thresholds vary with alternative predator-prey mass relationships, which are not well understood within terrestrial systems. Finally, we use our framework to predict the harvest pressure required to induce mass-specific extinctions, which closely align with previous estimates of anthropogenic megafaunal exploitation in both paleontological and historical contexts. Together our results underscore the tenuous nature of megafaunal populations and how different sources of mortality may contribute to their ephemeral nature over evolutionary time.

Ecological dynamics of moa extinctions reveal convergent refugia that today harbour flightless birds

Human settlement of islands across the Pacific Ocean was followed by waves of faunal extinctions that occurred so rapidly that their dynamics are difficult to reconstruct in space and time. These extinctions included large, wingless birds called moa that were endemic to New Zealand. Here we reconstructed the range and extinction dynamics of six genetically distinct species of moa across New Zealand at a fine spatiotemporal resolution, using hundreds of thousands of process-explicit simulations of climate-human-moa interactions, which were validated against inferences of occurrence and range contraction from an extensive fossil record. These process-based simulations revealed important interspecific differences in the ecological and demographic attributes of moa and established how these differences influenced likely trajectories of geographic and demographic declines of moa following Polynesian colonization of New Zealand. We show that despite these interspecific differences in extinction dynamics, the spatial patterns of geographic range collapse of moa species were probably similar. It is most likely that the final populations of all moa species persisted in suboptimal habitats in cold, mountainous areas that were generally last and least impacted by people. We find that these refugia for the last populations of moa continue to serve as isolated sanctuaries for New Zealand's remaining flightless birds, providing fresh insights for conserving endemic species in the face of current and future threats.

Neutral markers reveal complex population structure across the range of a widespread songbird

Understanding how both contemporary and historical physical barriers influence gene flow is key to reconstructing evolutionary histories and can allow us to predict species' resilience to changing environmental conditions. During the last glacial maximum (LGM), many high latitude North American bird species were forced into glacial refugia, including mountain bluebirds (Silia currucoides). Within their current breeding range, mountain bluebirds still experience a wide variety of environmental conditions and barriers that may disrupt gene flow and isolate populations. Using single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) obtained through restriction site-associated DNA sequencing, we detected at least four genetically distinct mountain bluebird populations. Based on this structure, we determined that isolation-by-distance, the northern Rocky Mountains, and discontinuous habitat are responsible for the low connectivity and the overall history of each population going back to the last glacial maximum. Finally, we identified five candidate genes under balancing selection and three loci under diversifying selection. This study provides the first look at connectivity and gene flow across the range of these high-altitude and high latitude songbirds.

52,000 years of woolly rhinoceros population dynamics reveal extinction mechanisms

The extinction of the woolly rhinoceros (Coelodonta antiquitatis) at the onset of the Holocene remains an enigma, with conflicting evidence regarding its cause and spatiotemporal dynamics. This partly reflects challenges in determining demographic responses of late Quaternary megafauna to climatic and anthropogenic causal drivers with available genetic and paleontological techniques. Here, we show that elucidating mechanisms of ancient extinctions can benefit from a detailed understanding of fine-scale metapopulation dynamics, operating over many millennia. Using an abundant fossil record, ancient DNA, and high-resolution simulation models, we untangle the ecological mechanisms and causal drivers that are likely to have been integral in the decline and later extinction of the woolly rhinoceros. Our 52,000-y reconstruction of distribution-wide metapopulation dynamics supports a pathway to extinction that began long before the Holocene, when the combination of cooling temperatures and low but sustained hunting by humans trapped woolly rhinoceroses in suboptimal habitats along the southern edge of their range. Modeling indicates that this ecological trap intensified after the end of the last ice age, preventing colonization of newly formed suitable habitats, weakening stabilizing metapopulation processes, triggering the extinction of the woolly rhinoceros in the early Holocene. Our findings suggest that fragmentation and resultant metapopulation dynamics should be explicitly considered in explanations of late Quaternary megafauna extinctions, sending a clarion call to the fragility of the remaining large-bodied grazers restricted to disjunct fragments of poor-quality habitat due to anthropogenic environmental change.

The late-Quaternary megafauna extinctions: Patterns, causes, ecological consequences and implications for ecosystem management in the Anthropocene

Across the last ~50,000 years (the late Quaternary) terrestrial vertebrate faunas have experienced severe losses of large species (megafauna), with most extinctions occurring in the Late Pleistocene and Early to Middle Holocene. Debate on the causes has been ongoing for over 200 years, intensifying from the 1960s onward. Here, we outline criteria that any causal hypothesis needs to account for. Importantly, this extinction event is unique relative to other Cenozoic (the last 66 million years) extinctions in its strong size bias. For example, only 11 out of 57 species of megaherbivores (body mass ≥1,000 kg) survived to the present. In addition to mammalian megafauna, certain other groups also experienced substantial extinctions, mainly large non-mammalian vertebrates and smaller but megafauna-associated taxa. Further, extinction severity and dates varied among continents, but severely affected all biomes, from the Arctic to the tropics. We synthesise the evidence for and against climatic or modern human (Homo sapiens) causation, the only existing tenable hypotheses. Our review shows that there is little support for any major influence of climate, neither in global extinction patterns nor in fine-scale spatiotemporal and mechanistic evidence. Conversely, there is strong and increasing support for human pressures as the key driver of these extinctions, with emerging evidence for an initial onset linked to pre-sapiens hominins prior to the Late Pleistocene. Subsequently, we synthesize the evidence for ecosystem consequences of megafauna extinctions and discuss the implications for conservation and restoration. A broad range of evidence indicates that the megafauna extinctions have elicited profound changes to ecosystem structure and functioning. The late-Quaternary megafauna extinctions thereby represent an early, large-scale human-driven environmental transformation, constituting a progenitor of the Anthropocene, where humans are now a major player in planetary functioning. Finally, we conclude that megafauna restoration via trophic rewilding can be expected to have positive effects on biodiversity across varied Anthropocene settings.

Mitochondrial genomes of Pleistocene megafauna retrieved from recent sediment layers of two Siberian lakes

Ancient environmental DNA (aeDNA) from lake sediments has yielded remarkable insights for the reconstruction of past ecosystems, including suggestions of late survival of extinct species. However, translocation and lateral inflow of DNA in sediments can potentially distort the stratigraphic signal of the DNA. Using three different approaches on two short lake sediment cores of the Yamal peninsula, West Siberia, with ages spanning only the past hundreds of years, we detect DNA and identified mitochondrial genomes of multiple mammoth and woolly rhinoceros individuals-both species that have been extinct for thousands of years on the mainland. The occurrence of clearly identifiable aeDNA of extinct Pleistocene megafauna (e.g. >400 K reads in one core) throughout these two short subsurface cores, along with specificities of sedimentology and dating, confirm that processes acting on regional scales, such as extensive permafrost thawing, can influence the aeDNA record and should be accounted for in aeDNA paleoecology.

Reconstructing colonization dynamics to establish how human activities transformed island biodiversity

Drivers and dynamics of initial human migrations across individual islands and archipelagos are poorly understood, hampering assessments of subsequent modification of island biodiversity. We developed and tested a new statistical-simulation approach for reconstructing the pattern and pace of human migration across islands at high spatiotemporal resolutions. Using Polynesian colonisation of New Zealand as an example, we show that process-explicit models, informed by archaeological records and spatiotemporal reconstructions of past climates and environments, can provide new and important insights into the patterns and mechanisms of arrival and establishment of people on islands. We find that colonisation of New Zealand required there to have been a single founding population of approximately 500 people, arriving between 1233 and 1257 AD, settling multiple areas, and expanding rapidly over both North and South Islands. These verified spatiotemporal reconstructions of colonisation dynamics provide new opportunities to explore more extensively the potential ecological impacts of human colonisation on New Zealand's native biota and ecosystems.

A female woolly mammoth's lifetime movements end in an ancient Alaskan hunter-gatherer camp

Woolly mammoths in mainland Alaska overlapped with the region's first people for at least a millennium. However, it is unclear how mammoths used the space shared with people. Here, we use detailed isotopic analyses of a female mammoth tusk found in a 14,000-year-old archaeological site to show that she moved ~1000 kilometers from northwestern Canada to inhabit an area with the highest density of early archaeological sites in interior Alaska until her death. DNA from the tusk and other local contemporaneous archaeological mammoth remains revealed that multiple mammoth herds congregated in this region. Early Alaskans seem to have structured their settlements partly based on mammoth prevalence and made use of mammoths for raw materials and likely food.

Millennial processes of population decline, range contraction and near extinction of the European bison

European bison (Bison bonasus) were widespread throughout Europe during the late Pleistocene. However, the contributions of environmental change and humans to their near extinction have never been resolved. Using process-explicit models, fossils and ancient DNA, we disentangle the combinations of threatening processes that drove population declines and regional extinctions of European bison through space and across time. We show that the population size of European bison declined abruptly at the termination of the Pleistocene in response to rapid environmental change, hunting by humans and their interaction. Human activities prevented populations of European bison from rebounding in the Holocene, despite improved environmental conditions. Hunting caused range loss in the north and east of its distribution, while land use change was responsible for losses in the west and south. Advances in hunting technologies from 1500 CE were needed to simulate low abundances observed in 1870 CE. While our findings show that humans were an important driver of the extinction of the European bison in the wild, vast areas of its range vanished during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition because of post-glacial environmental change. These areas of its former range have been climatically unsuitable for millennia and should not be considered in reintroduction efforts.

Strengthening global-change science by integrating aeDNA with paleoecoinformatics

Ancient environmental DNA (aeDNA) data are close to enabling insights into past global-scale biodiversity dynamics at unprecedented taxonomic extent and resolution. However, achieving this potential requires solutions that bridge bioinformatics and paleoecoinformatics. Essential needs include support for dynamic taxonomic inferences, dynamic age inferences, and precise stratigraphic depth. Moreover, aeDNA data are complex and heterogeneous, generated by dispersed researcher networks, with methods advancing rapidly. Hence, expert community governance and curation are essential to building high-value data resources. Immediate recommendations include uploading metabarcoding-based taxonomic inventories into paleoecoinformatic resources, building linkages among open bioinformatic and paleoecoinformatic data resources, harmonizing aeDNA processing workflows, and expanding community data governance. These advances will enable transformative insights into global-scale biodiversity dynamics during large environmental and anthropogenic changes.

Mechanistic forecasts of species responses to climate change: The promise of biophysical ecology

A core challenge in global change biology is to predict how species will respond to future environmental change and to manage these responses. To make such predictions and management actions robust to novel futures, we need to accurately characterize how organisms experience their environments and the biological mechanisms by which they respond. All organisms are thermodynamically connected to their environments through the exchange of heat and water at fine spatial and temporal scales and this exchange can be captured with biophysical models. Although mechanistic models based on biophysical ecology have a long history of development and application, their use in global change biology remains limited despite their enormous promise and increasingly accessible software. We contend that greater understanding and training in the theory and methods of biophysical ecology is vital to expand their application. Our review shows how biophysical models can be implemented to understand and predict climate change impacts on species' behavior, phenology, survival, distribution, and abundance. It also illustrates the types of outputs that can be generated, and the data inputs required for different implementations. Examples range from simple calculations of body temperature at a particular site and time, to more complex analyses of species' distribution limits based on projected energy and water balances, accounting for behavior and phenology. We outline challenges that currently limit the widespread application of biophysical models relating to data availability, training, and the lack of common software ecosystems. We also discuss progress and future developments that could allow these models to be applied to many species across large spatial extents and timeframes. Finally, we highlight how biophysical models are uniquely suited to solve global change biology problems that involve predicting and interpreting responses to environmental variability and extremes, multiple or shifting constraints, and novel abiotic or biotic environments.

Extinction: A synthesis of disciplines for theoretical and practical advances

Extinction is a new open-access journal focused on the patterns and processes underlying the loss of biodiversity. It aims to inform conservation efforts, with a broad spatial and temporal scope. Extinction biology - the scientific study of species loss - has a long history and has recently become a more interdisciplinary and integrated field. This journal offers a unique, synthetic forum in which to present cutting-edge research and discuss its implications. This includes ecological, molecular, paleontological, and social perspectives, based on empirical data, theory, and modelling, to understand extinction processes. By tackling the big challenges, the research published in Extinction will be valuable for researchers and practitioners concerned with extinction and its role in shaping the history and future of life on Earth.

Spatiotemporal influences of climate and humans on muskox range dynamics over multiple millennia

Processes leading to range contractions and population declines of Arctic megafauna during the late Pleistocene and early Holocene are uncertain, with intense debate on the roles of human hunting, climatic change, and their synergy. Obstacles to a resolution have included an overreliance on correlative rather than process-explicit approaches for inferring drivers of distributional and demographic change. Here, we disentangle the ecological mechanisms and threats that were integral in the decline and extinction of the muskox (Ovibos moschatus) in Eurasia and in its expansion in North America using process-explicit macroecological models. The approach integrates modern and fossil occurrence records, ancient DNA, spatiotemporal reconstructions of past climatic change, species-specific population ecology, and the growth and spread of anatomically modern humans. We show that accurately reconstructing inferences of past demographic changes for muskox over the last 21,000 years require high dispersal abilities, large maximum densities, and a small Allee effect. Analyses of validated process-explicit projections indicate that climatic change was the primary driver of muskox distribution shifts and demographic changes across its previously extensive (circumpolar) range, with populations responding negatively to rapid warming events. Regional analyses show that the range collapse and extinction of the muskox in Europe (~13,000 years ago) was likely caused by humans operating in synergy with climatic warming. In Canada and Greenland, climatic change and human activities probably combined to drive recent population sizes. The impact of past climatic change on the range and extinction dynamics of muskox during the Pleistocene-Holocene transition signals a vulnerability of this species to future increased warming. By better establishing the ecological processes that shaped the distribution of the muskox through space and time, we show that process-explicit macroecological models have important applications for the future conservation and management of this iconic species in a warming Arctic.

Process-explicit models reveal the structure and dynamics of biodiversity patterns

With ever-growing data availability and computational power at our disposal, we now have the capacity to use process-explicit models more widely to reveal the ecological and evolutionary mechanisms responsible for spatiotemporal patterns of biodiversity. Most research questions focused on the distribution of diversity cannot be answered experimentally, because many important environmental drivers and biological constraints operate at large spatiotemporal scales. However, we can encode proposed mechanisms into models, observe the patterns they produce in virtual environments, and validate these patterns against real-world data or theoretical expectations. This approach can advance understanding of generalizable mechanisms responsible for the distributions of organisms, communities, and ecosystems in space and time, advancing basic and applied science. We review recent developments in process-explicit models and how they have improved knowledge of the distribution and dynamics of life on Earth, enabling biodiversity to be better understood and managed through a deeper recognition of the processes that shape genetic, species, and ecosystem diversity.

Ancient mitochondrial and modern whole genomes unravel massive genetic diversity loss during near extinction of Alpine ibex

Population bottlenecks can have dramatic consequences for the health and long-term survival of a species. Understanding of historic population size and standing genetic variation prior to a contraction allows estimating the impact of a bottleneck on the species genetic diversity. Although historic population sizes can be modelled based on extant genomics, uncertainty is high for the last 10-20 millenia. Hence, integrating ancient genomes provides a powerful complement to retrace the evolution of genetic diversity through population fluctuations. Here, we recover 15 high-quality mitogenomes of the once nearly extinct Alpine ibex spanning 8601 BP to 1919 CE and combine these with 60 published modern whole genomes. Coalescent demography simulations based on modern whole genomes indicate population fluctuations coinciding with the last major glaciation period. Using our ancient and historic mitogenomes, we investigate the more recent demographic history of the species and show that mitochondrial haplotype diversity was reduced to a fifth of the pre-bottleneck diversity with several highly differentiated mitochondrial lineages having co-existed historically. The main collapse of mitochondrial diversity coincides with elevated human population growth during the last 1-2 kya. After recovery, one lineage was spread and nearly fixed across the Alps due to recolonization efforts. Our study highlights that a combined approach integrating genomic data of ancient, historic and extant populations unravels major long-term population fluctuations from the emergence of a species through its near extinction up to the recent past.