Detecting past changes of effective population size

Inferring the historical demography of southern African cheetahs (Acinonyx jubatus) using Bayesian analyses of molecular genetic data

The contemporary genetic diversity of the cheetah (Acinonyx jubatus) has been the focus of several studies, which have revealed very low levels of variation. Different hypotheses have been proposed to explain this pattern of low diversity, and require additional scrutiny. Here, we used published microsatellite data and coalescence-based analytical methods to explore the historical demography of the largest free-ranging cheetah population, aiming to assess whether present-day diversity may have been impacted by a historical demographic decline. Our results support the hypothesis of a historical (and most likely gradual) demographic decline over the past ~10,000 years, leading to a present-day N e ranging from 700 to 1,600 individuals. This decline was likely induced by climate-driven vegetational shifts affecting habitat suitability and possibly also interspecies interactions with prey and competitors. These results help clarify the demographic history of cheetahs in southern Africa and its impact on the current genetic diversity of this population.

Species-Specific Traits Shape Genetic Diversity During an Expansion-Contraction Cycle and Bias Demographic History Reconstruction

Species ranges are dynamic, experiencing expansions, contractions or shifts in response to habitat changes driven by extrinsic factors such as climate change or human activities. While existing research examines the genetic consequences of spatial processes, few studies integrate species-specific traits to analyse how habitat changes affect co-existing species. In this study, we address this gap by investigating how genetic diversity patterns vary among species with different traits (such as generation length, population density and dispersal) experiencing similar habitat changes. Using spatial simulations and a simpler panmictic population model, we investigate the temporal genetic diversity in refugium populations undergoing range expansion of their habitat, followed by stationary and contraction periods. By varying habitat contraction speed and species traits, we identified three distinct temporal dynamics of genetic diversity during contraction: (i) a decrease in genetic diversity, (ii) an initial increase followed by a decrease and (iii) a continuous increase throughout the contraction period. We show that genetic diversity trajectories during population decline can be predicted by comparing sampled population diversity to equilibrium values expected under expanded and contracted habitat ranges. Our study also challenges the belief that high genetic diversity in a refugium population is due to a recent and rapid habitat loss. Instead, we found contrasting effects of contraction speed on genetic diversity depending on the interaction between species-specific traits and the dynamics of habitat change. Finally, using simulated genetic data, we found that demographic histories inferred from effective population size estimates may vary across species, even when they experience similar habitat changes.

Genetic diversity of a recovering European roller (Coracias garrulus) population from Serbia

The European Roller (Coracias garrulus), a long-distance migratory bird, faced a considerable decline in breeding pairs throughout Europe at the end of the 20th century. Due to conservation efforts and the installation of nesting boxes, the population of the European Roller in Serbia has made a remarkable recovery. Here, we used the variability of nucleotide sequences of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region and 10 microsatellite loci to assess the genetic diversity and structuring, phylogeographic patterns and demographic history of this species using 224 individuals from Serbia. Our results showed moderate level of genetic diversity (HO = 0.392) and a slightly elevated level of inbreeding and homozygosity (FIS = 0.393). Genetic structuring based on microsatellite data indicated three genetic clusters, but without a clear spatial pattern. High haplotype diversity (Hd = 0.987) of the mtDNA control region sequences was detected, and neutrality tests indicated a recent demographic expansion. The phylogeographic analysis, which also included previously published sequences of the mtDNA control region, supported the subdivision into two distinct European and Asian haplogroups (ΦST = 0.712). However, the results of our study showed that a larger number of haplotypes sampled in Serbia are clustered in the Asian haplogroup as compared to previous studies, indicating a historically continuous distribution of this species and possibly a wider distribution of the subspecies Coracias garrulus semenovwi. Our results suggest that the European Roller population in Serbia is genetically stable, with no evidence of recent bottlenecks, and emphasize the importance of artificial nest boxes for promoting and maintaining population dynamics of European Rollers.

Genetic erosion reduces biomass temporal stability in wild fish populations

Genetic diversity sustains species adaptation. However, it may also support key ecosystems functions and services, for example biomass production, that can be altered by the worldwide loss of genetic diversity. Despite extensive experimental evidence, there have been few attempts to empirically test whether genetic diversity actually promotes biomass and biomass stability in wild populations. Here, using long-term demographic wild fish data from two large river basins in southwestern France, we demonstrate through causal modeling analyses that populations with high genetic diversity do not reach higher biomasses than populations with low genetic diversity. Nonetheless, populations with high genetic diversity have much more stable biomasses over recent decades than populations having suffered from genetic erosion, which has implications for the provision of ecosystem services and the risk of population extinction. Our results strengthen the importance of adopting prominent environmental policies to conserve this important biodiversity facet.

Eco-evolutionary factors that influence its demographic oscillations in Prochilodus costatus (Actinopterygii: Characiformes) populations evidenced through a genetic spatial-temporal evaluation

The human activity impact on wild animal populations is indicated by eco-evolutionary and demographic processes, along with their survival and capacity to evolve; consequently, such data can contribute toward enhancing genetic-based conservation programs. In this context, knowledge on the life-history and the eco-evolutionary processes is required to understand extant patterns of population structure in Prochilodus costatus a Neotropical migratory fish that has been threatened due to loss and fragmentation of its natural habitat since 1960s promoted by the expansion of hydroelectric power plant construction programs. This study evaluated the eco-evolutionary parameters that cause oscillations in the demography and structure of P. costatus populations. An integrated approach was used, including temporal and spatial sampling, next-generation sequencing of eight microsatellite loci, multivariate genetic analysis, and demographic life-history reconstruction. The results provided evidence of the complex interplay of ecological-evolutionary and human-interference events on the life history of this species in the upper basin. In particular, spawning wave behavior might have ecological triggers resulting in an overlapping of distinct genetic generations, and arising distinct migratory and nonmigratory genetic patterns living in the same area. An abrupt decrease in the effective population size of the P. costatus populations in the recent past (1960-80) was likely driven by environment fragmentation promoted by the construction of the Três Marias hydropower dam. The low allelic diversity that resulted from this event is still detected today; thus, active stocking programs are not effective at expanding the genetic diversity of this species in the river basin. Finally, this study highlights the importance of using mixed methods to understand spatial and temporal variation in genetic structure for effective mitigation and conservation programs for threatened species that are directly affected by human actions.

Species-landscape interactions drive divergent population trajectories in four forest-dependent Afromontane forest songbird species within a biodiversity hotspot in South Africa

Species confined to naturally fragmented habitats may exhibit intrinsic population complexity which may challenge interpretations of species response to anthropogenic landscape transformation. In South Africa, where native forests are naturally fragmented, forest-dependent birds have undergone range declines since 1992, most notably among insectivores. These insectivores appear sensitive to the quality of natural matrix habitats, and it is unknown whether transformation of the landscape matrix has disrupted gene flow in these species. We undertook a landscape genetics study of four forest-dependent insectivorous songbirds across southeast South Africa. Microsatellite data were used to conduct a priori optimization of landscape resistance surfaces (land cover, rivers and dams, and elevation) using cost-distances along least-cost pathway (LCP), and resistance distances (IBR). We detected pronounced declines in effective population sizes over the past two centuries for the endemic forest specialist Cossypha dichroa and Batis capensis, alongside recent gene flow disruption in B. capensis, C. dichroa and Pogonocichla stellata. Landscape resistance modelling showed both native forest and dense thicket configuration facilitates gene flow in P. stellata, B. capensis and C. dichroa. Facultative dispersal of P. stellata through dense thicket likely aided resilience against historic landscape transformation, whereas combined forest-thicket degradation adversely affected the forest generalist B. capensis. By contrast, Phylloscopus ruficapilla appears least reliant upon landscape features to maintain gene flow and was least impacted by anthropogenic landscape transformation. Collectively, gene flow in all four species is improved at lower elevations, along river valleys, and riparian corridors- where native forest and dense thicket better persist. Consistent outperformance of LCP over IBR land-cover models for P. stellata, B. capensis and C. dichroa demonstrates the benefits of wildlife corridors for South African forest-dependent bird conservation, to ameliorate the extinction debts from past and present anthropogenic forest exploitation.

Genetic analyses reveal demographic decline and population differentiation in an endangered social carnivore, Asiatic wild dog

Deforestation and agricultural intensification have resulted in an alarming change in the global land cover over the past 300 years, posing a threat to species conservation. Dhole is a monophyletic, social canid and, being an endangered and highly forest-dependent species, is more prone to the loss of favorable habitat in the Anthropocene. We determined the genetic differentiation and demographic history of dhole across the tiger reserves of Maharashtra using the microsatellite data of 305 individuals. Simulation-based analyses revealed a 77-85% decline in the major dhole sub-populations. Protected areas have provided refuge to the historically declining dhole population resulting in clustering with strong genetic structure in the remnant dhole population. The historical population decline coincides with the extreme events in the landscape over the past 300 years. The study highlights the pattern of genetic differentiation and diversity of a highly forest-dependent species which can be associated with the loss of forest cover outside tiger reserves. It also warrants attention to develop conservation plans for the remnant surviving population of dholes in India.

Recent demographic histories of temperate deciduous trees inferred from microsatellite markers

Background

Accurate inference of demographic histories for temperate tree species can aid our understanding of current climate change as a driver of evolution. Microsatellites are more suitable for inferring recent historical events due to their high mutation rates. However, most programs analyzing microsatellite data assume a strict stepwise mutation model (SMM), which could cause false detection of population shrinkage when microsatellite mutation does not follow SMM.

Results

This study aims to reconstruct the recent demographic histories of five cool-temperate tree species in Eastern Asia, Quercus mongolica, Q. liaotungensis, Juglans cathayensis, J. mandshurica and J. ailantifolia, by using 19 microsatellite markers with two methods considering generalized stepwise mutation model (GSM) (MIGRAINE and VarEff). Both programs revealed that all the five species experienced expansions after the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Within butternuts, J. cathayensis experienced a more serious bottleneck than the other species, and within oaks, Q. mongolica showed a moderate increase in population size and remained stable after the expansion. In addition, the point estimates of the multistep mutation proportion in the GSM model (p_GSM) for all five species were between 0.50 and 0.65, indicating that when inferring population demographic history of the cool-temperate forest species using microsatellite markers, it is better to assume a GSM rather than a SMM.

Conclusions

This study provides the first direct evidence that five cool-temperate tree species in East Asia have experienced expansions after the LGM with microsatellite data. Considering the mutation model of microsatellite has a vital influence on demographic inference, combining multiple programs such as MIGRAINE and VarEff can effectively reduce errors caused by inappropriate model selection and prior setting.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12862-021-01805-w.

Extreme philopatry and genetic diversification at unprecedented scales in a seabird

Effective conservation requires maintenance of the processes underlying species divergence, as well as understanding species' responses to episodic disturbances and long-term change. We explored genetic population structure at a previously unrecognized spatial scale in seabirds, focusing on fine-scale isolation between colonies, and identified two distinct genetic clusters of Barau's Petrels (Pterodroma baraui) on Réunion Island (Indian Ocean) corresponding to the sampled breeding colonies separated by 5 km. This unexpected result was supported by long-term banding and was clearly linked to the species' extreme philopatric tendencies, emphasizing the importance of philopatry as an intrinsic barrier to gene flow. This implies that loss of a single colony could result in the loss of genetic variation, impairing the species' ability to adapt to threats in the long term. We anticipate that these findings will have a pivotal influence on seabird research and population management, focusing attention below the species level of taxonomic organization.

Population genetics and evolutionary history of the endangered Eld's deer (Rucervus eldii) with implications for planning species recovery

Eld's deer (Rucervus eldii) with three recognised subspecies (R. e. eldii, R. e. thamin, and R. e. siamensis) represents one of the most threatened cervids found in Southeast Asia. The species has experienced considerable range contractions and local extinctions owing to habitat loss and fragmentation, hunting, and illegal trade across its distribution range over the last century. Understanding the patterns of genetic variation is crucial for planning effective conservation strategies. This study investigated the phylogeography, divergence events and systematics of Eld's deer subspecies using the largest mtDNA dataset compiled to date. We also analysed the genetic structure and demographic history of R. e. eldii using 19 microsatellite markers. Our results showed that R. e. siamensis exhibits two divergent mtDNA lineages (mainland and Hainan Island), which diverged around 0.2 Mya (95% HPD 0.1-0.2), possibly driven by the fluctuating sea levels of the Early Holocene period. The divergence between R. e. eldii and R. e. siamensis occurred around 0.4 Mya (95% HPD 0.3-0.5), potentially associated with the adaptations to warm and humid climate with open grassland vegetation that predominated the region. Furthermore, R. e. eldii exhibits low levels of genetic diversity and small contemporary effective population size (median = 7, 4.7-10.8 at 95% CI) with widespread historical genetic bottlenecks which accentuates its vulnerability to inbreeding and extinction. Based on the observed significant evolutionary and systematic distance between Eld's deer and other species of the genus Rucervus, we propose to classify Eld's deer (Cervus eldii) in the genus Cervus, which is in congruent with previous phylogenetic studies. This study provides important conservation implications required to direct the ongoing population recovery programs and planning future conservation strategies.

Long-term urbanization impacts the eastern golden frog (Pelophylax plancyi) in Shanghai City: Demographic history, genetic structure, and implications for amphibian conservation in intensively urbanizing environments

Understanding the mechanisms of how urbanization influences the evolution of native species is vital for urban wildlife ecology and conservation in the Anthropocene. With thousands of years of agriculture-dominated historical urbanization followed by 40 years of intensive and rapid urbanization, Shanghai provides an ideal environment to study how the two-stage urbanization process influences the evolution of indigenous wildlife, especially of anuran species. Therefore, in this study, we used mitochondrial Cyt-b gene, microsatellite (SSR), and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) data to evaluate the demographic history and genetic structure of the eastern golden frog (Pelophylax plancyi), by sampling 407 individuals from 15 local populations across Shanghai, China. All local populations experienced bottlenecks during historical urbanization, while the local populations in urban areas maintained comparable contemporary effective population sizes (N e) and genetic diversity with suburban and rural populations. Nevertheless, the rapid modern urbanization has already imposed significant negative effects to the integrity of populations. The 15 local populations were differentiated into eight genetic clusters, showing a spatial distribution pattern consistent with the current urbanization gradient and island-mainland geography. Although moderate gene flow still occurred from the rural peripheral cluster to urban and suburban clusters, population fragmentation was more serious in the urban and suburban populations, where higher urbanization levels within 2-km radius areas showed significant negative relationships to the N e and genetic diversity of local populations. Therefore, to protect urban wildlife with limited dispersal ability, improving conditions in fragmented habitat remnants might be most essential for local populations living in more urbanized areas. Meanwhile, we highlight the need to preserve large unfragmented rural habitats and to construct corridor networks to connect discrete urban habitat remnants for the long-term wildlife conservation in intensively urbanizing environments.

The role of environment, local adaptation, and past climate fluctuation on the amount and distribution of genetic diversity in two subspecies of Mexican wild Zea mays

PREMISE

Past climate fluctuations during the Holocene and Pleistocene shaped the distribution of several plant species in temperate areas over the world. Wild maize, commonly known as teosinte, is a good system to evaluate the effects of historical climate fluctuations on genetic diversity due to its wide distribution in Mexico with contrasting environmental conditions. We explored the influence of contemporary factors and historical environmental shifts on genetic diversity, including present and three historical periods using neutral markers.

METHODS

We used 22 nuclear microsatellite loci to examine the genetic diversity of 14 populations of Zea mays subsp. parviglumis and 15 populations of Zea mays subsp. mexicana (527 individuals total). We implemented genetic structure analyses to evaluate genetic differentiation between and within subspecies. We applied coalescent-based demographic analysis and species distribution modeling to evaluate the effects of historical environmental shifts.

RESULTS

We found 355 alleles in total for the two subspecies and variable levels of diversity in each (Z. mays subsp. parviglumis expected heterozygosity H_E = 0.3646-0.7699; Z. mays subsp. mexicana H_E = 0.5885-0.7671). We detected significant genetic structure among populations (D_EST = 0.4332) with significant heterozygote deficiency (F_IS = 0.1796), and variable selfing rates (sg₂ = 0.0-0.3090). The Bayesian assignment analysis differentiated four genetic groups. Demographic and species distribution modeling analysis suggested that environmental shifts were influential in the amount of genetic diversity.

CONCLUSIONS

Our analyses suggest that the current genetic diversity in teosinte is shaped by factors such as local adaptation and genetic isolation, along with historical environmental fluctuations.

Whole-genome resequencing reveals the pleistocene temporal dynamics of Branchiostoma belcheri and Branchiostoma floridae populations

Global climatic fluctuations governed the ancestral demographic histories of species and contributed to place the current population status into a more extensive ecological and evolutionary context. Genetic variations will leave unambiguous signatures in the patterns of intraspecific genetic variation in extant species since the genome of each individual is an imperfect mosaic of the ancestral genomes. Here, we report the genome sequences of 20 Branchiostoma individuals by whole-genome resequencing strategy. We detected over 140 million genomic variations for each Branchiostoma individual. In particular, we applied the pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) method to estimate the trajectories of changes in the effective population size (N e) of Branchiostoma population during the Pleistocene. We evaluated the threshold of sequencing depth for proper inference of demographic histories using PSMC was ≥25×. The PSMC results highlight the role of historical global climatic fluctuations in the long-term population dynamics of Branchiostoma. The inferred ancestral N e of the Branchiostoma belcheri populations from Zhanjiang and Xiamen (China) seawaters was different in amplitude before the first (mutation rate = 3 × 10-9) or third glaciation (mutation rate = 9 × 10-9) of the Pleistocene, indicating that the two populations most probably started to evolve in isolation in their respective seas after the first or third glaciation of the Pleistocene. A pronounced population bottleneck coinciding with the last glacial maximum was observed in all Branchiostoma individuals, followed by a population expansion occurred during the late Pleistocene. Species that have experienced long-term declines may be especially vulnerable to recent anthropogenic activities. Recently, the industrial pollution and the exploitation of sea sand have destroyed the harmonious living environment of amphioxus species. In the future, we need to protect the habitat of Branchiostoma and make full use of these detected genetic variations to facilitate the functional study of Branchiostoma for adaptation to local environments.

Evolutionary history of a Scottish harbour seal population

Efforts to conserve marine mammals are often constrained by uncertainty over their population history. Here, we examine the evolutionary history of a harbour seal (Phoca vitulina) population in the Moray Firth, northeast Scotland using genetic tools and microsatellite markers to explore population change. Previous fine-scale analysis of UK harbour seal populations revealed three clusters in the UK, with a northeastern cluster that included our Moray Firth study population. Our analysis revealed that the Moray Firth cluster is an independent genetic group, with similar levels of genetic diversity across each of the localities sampled. These samples were used to assess historic abundance and demographic events in the Moray Firth population. Estimates of current genetic diversity and effective population size were low, but the results indicated that this population has remained at broadly similar levels following the population bottleneck that occurred after post-glacial recolonization of the area.

Small coastal streams-Critical reservoirs of genetic diversity for trout (Salmo trutta L.) in the face of increasing anthropogenic stressors

We used microsatellite markers to investigate levels and structuring of genetic diversity in trout (Salmo trutta L.) sampled from 16 rivers along the south coast of Cornwall in southwest England. This region is characterized by many small coastal streams with a few larger catchments. At a regional level, genetic structuring of contemporary populations has been influenced by a combination of events, including the last Ice Age and also more recent human activities over the last millennium. All populations are shown to have gone through strong genetic bottlenecks, coinciding with increased exploitation of mineral resources within catchments, beginning during the Medieval period. At more local levels, contemporary human-induced habitat fragmentation, such as weir and culvert construction, has disproportionally affected trout populations in the smaller catchments within the study area. However, where small catchments are relatively unaffected by such activities, they can host trout populations with diversity levels comparable to those found in larger rivers in the region. We also predict significant future loses of diversity and heterozygosity in the trout populations inhabiting small, isolated catchments. Our study highlights how multiple factors, especially the activity of humans, have and continue to affect the levels and structuring of genetic diversity in trout over long timescales.

Demographic expansion of an African opportunistic carnivore during the Neolithic revolution

The diffusion of Neolithic technology together with the Holocene Climatic Optimum fostered the spread of human settlements and pastoral activities in North Africa, resulting in profound and enduring consequences for the dynamics of species, communities and landscapes. Here, we investigate the demographic history of the African wolf (Canis lupaster), a recently recognized canid species, to understand if demographic trends of this generalist and opportunistic carnivore reflect the increase in food availability that emerged after the arrival of the Neolithic economy in North Africa. We screened nuclear and mitochondrial DNA in samples collected throughout Algeria and Tunisia, and implemented coalescent approaches to estimate the variation of effective population sizes from present to ancestral time. We have found consistent evidence supporting the hypothesis that the African wolf population experienced a meaningful expansion concurring with a period of rapid population expansion of domesticates linked to the advent of agricultural practices.

Speciation and subsequent secondary contact in two edaphic endemic primroses driven by Pleistocene climatic oscillation

Climatic perturbation during the Pleistocene era has played a major role in plant evolutionary history by altering species distribution range. However, the relative roles of climatic and geographic factors in the distribution dynamics remain poorly understood; in particular, the edaphic endemics. In this paper, we examine the evolutionary history of two ultramafic primroses, Primula hidakana and Primula takedana. These species are ecologically and morphologically distinct with disjunct distributions on Hokkaido Island, Japan. Primula hidakana is found on various rocks in southern Hokkaido and P. takedana in serpentine areas in northern Hokkaido. We performed population genetics analyses on nuclear and chloroplast data sets and tested alternative phylogenetic models of divergence using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) analyses. Nuclear microsatellite loci clearly distinguished the two sister taxa. In contrast, chloroplast sequence variations were shared between P. takedana and P. hidakana. ABC analyses based on nuclear data supported a secondary contact scenario involving asymmetrical gene flow from P. hidakana to P. takedana. Paleodistribution modeling also supported the divergence model, and predicted their latitudinal range shifts leading to past secondary contact. Our findings highlight the importance of the distribution dynamics during the Pleistocene climatic oscillations in the evolution of serpentine plants, and demonstrate that tight species cohesion between serpentine and nonserpentine sister taxa has been maintained despite past interspecific gene flow across soil boundaries.

Late Miocene origin and recent population collapse of the Malagasy savanna olive tree (Noronhia lowryi)

Debates regarding the origin of tropical savannas have attempted to disentangle the role of human, biotic and abiotic factors. Understanding the origins of savanna remains essential to identifying processes that gave rise to habitat mosaics, particularly those found in the Central Plateau of Madagascar. Documenting the evolutionary history and demography of native trees occurring in open habitats may reveal footprints left by past and recent environmental changes. We conducted a population genetic analysis of an endangered Malagasy shrub (Noronhia lowryi, Oleaceae) of the Central Plateau. Seventy-seven individuals were sampled from three sites and genotyped at 14 nuclear and 24 chloroplast microsatellites. We found a highly contrasting nuclear and plastid genetic structure, suggesting that pollen-mediated gene flow allows panmixia, while seed-based dispersal may rarely exceed tens of metres. From a phylogeny based on full plastomes, we dated the surprisingly old crown age of maternal lineages back to ~6.2 Mya, perhaps co-occurring with the global expansion of savanna. In contrast, recent demographic history inferred from nuclear data shows a bottleneck signature ~350 generations ago, probably reflecting an environmental shift during the Late Pleistocene or the Holocene. Ancient in situ adaptation and recent demographic collapse of an endangered woody plant highlight the unique value and vulnerability of the Malagasy savannas.

Conservation Genetic Assessment of Savannah Elephants (Loxodonta africana) in the Greater Kruger Biosphere, South Africa

Savannah elephant populations have been severely reduced and fragmented throughout its remaining range. In general, however, there is limited information regarding their genetic status, which is essential knowledge for conservation. We investigated patterns of genetic variation in savannah elephants from the Greater Kruger Biosphere, with a focus on those in previously unstudied nature reserves adjacent to Kruger National Park, using dung samples from 294 individuals and 18 microsatellites. The results of genetic structure analyses using several different methods of ordination and Bayesian clustering strongly suggest that elephants throughout the Greater Kruger National Park (GKNP) constitute a single population. No evidence of a recent genetic bottleneck was detected using three moment-based approaches and two coalescent likelihood methods. The apparent absence of a recent genetic bottleneck associated with the known early 1900s demographic bottleneck may result from a combination of rapid post-bottleneck population growth, immigration and long generation time. Point estimates of contemporary effective population size (Ne) for the GKNP were ~ 500-700, that is, at the low end of the range of Ne values that have been proposed for maintaining evolutionary potential and the current ratio of Ne to census population size (Nc) may be quite low (<0.1). This study illustrates the difficulties in assessing the impacts on Ne in populations that have suffered demographic crashes but have recovered rapidly and received gene flow, particularly in species with long generation times in which genetic time lags are longer. This work provides a starting point and baseline information for genetic monitoring of the GKNP elephants.

The IICR and the non-stationary structured coalescent: towards demographic inference with arbitrary changes in population structure

In the last years, a wide range of methods allowing to reconstruct past population size changes from genome-wide data have been developed. At the same time, there has been an increasing recognition that population structure can generate genetic data similar to those produced under models of population size change. Recently, Mazet et al. (Heredity 116:362-371, 2016) showed that, for any model of population structure, it is always possible to find a panmictic model with a particular function of population size changes, having exactly the same distribution of T₂ (the coalescence time for a sample of size two) as that of the structured model. They called this function IICR (Inverse Instantaneous Coalescence Rate) and showed that it does not necessarily correspond to population size changes under non-panmictic models. Besides, most of the methods used to analyse data under models of population structure tend to arbitrarily fix that structure and to minimise or neglect population size changes. Here, we extend the seminal work of Herbots (PhD thesis, University of London, 1994) on the structured coalescent and propose a new framework, the Non-Stationary Structured Coalescent (NSSC) that incorporates demographic events (changes in gene flow and/or deme sizes) to models of nearly any complexity. We show how to compute the IICR under a wide family of stationary and non-stationary models. As an example we address the question of human and Neanderthal evolution and discuss how the NSSC framework allows to interpret genomic data under this new perspective.

Effective Population Size Differences in Calomys musculinus, the Host of Junín Virus: Their Relationship with the Epidemiological History of Argentine Hemorrhagic Fever

Argentine hemorrhagic fever (AHF) is a serious endemic disease in Argentina, produced by Junín virus, whose host is the Sigmodontinae rodent Calomys musculinus. Within the endemic area, human incidence and proportion of infected rodents remains high for 5-10 years after the first appearance of the disease (epidemic [E] zone) and then gradually declines to sporadic cases (historic [H] zone). We tested the hypothesis that host populations within the E zone are large and well connected by gene flow, facilitating the transmission and maintenance of the virus, whereas those in the H and nonendemic (NE) zones are small and isolated, with the opposite effect. We estimated parameters affected by levels of gene flow and population size in 14 populations of C. musculinus: population effective size (Ne), genetic variability, and mean relatedness. Our hypothesis was not supported: the lowest levels of variability and of Ne and the highest genetic relatedness among individuals were found in the H zone. Populations from the NE zone displayed opposite results, whereas those in the E zone showed intermediate values. If we consider that populations are first NE, then E, and finally H, a correlative decrease in Ne was observed. Chronically infected females have a low reproductive success. We propose that this would lower Ne because each cohort would originate from a fraction of females of the previous generation, and affect other factors such as proportion of individuals that develop acute infection, probability of viral transmission, and evolution of virulence, which would explain, at least partly, the changing incidence of AHF.

Genetic population structure of fishers (Pekania pennanti) in the Great Lakes region: remnants and reintroductions

Reintroduction programs have been pivotal in augmenting populations of fishers (Pekania pennanti (Erxleben, 1777)) and re-establishing them to their former range in North America. The majority of reintroduction efforts in fishers have been considered demographically successful, but reintroductions can alter genetic population structure and success has rarely been evaluated in fishers from a genetic standpoint. We used microsatellite data (n = 169) to examine genetic population structure of fishers in the Great Lakes region and comment on the success of past reintroductions at two different spatial scales. We found significant genetic population structure among source and reintroduced populations within the Great Lakes region and large-scale genetic structure between fisher populations located in two geographically distant regions (Great Lakes and Northeast) in the eastern United States. Reintroductions associated with the Great Lakes produced results that were largely consistent with other studies of fisher reintroductions in the Northeast. However, our data are the first to support a measurable impact on genetic population structure in Pekania pennanti pennanti (Erxleben, 1777) from a reintroduction using geographically distant source and reintroduced populations. When feasible, we strongly recommend that reintroduction programs include an investigation of the underlying genetic structure to better define intended goals and supplement measures of demographic success.

Did Late Pleistocene climate change result in parallel genetic structure and demographic bottlenecks in sympatric Central African crocodiles, Mecistops and Osteolaemus?

The mid-Holocene has had profound demographic impacts on wildlife on the African continent, although there is little known about the impacts on species from Central Africa. Understanding the impacts of climate change on codistributed species can enhance our understanding of ecosystem dynamics and for formulating restoration objectives. We took a multigenome comparative approach to examine the phylogeographic structure of two poorly known Central African crocodile species-Mecistops sp. aff. cataphractus and Osteolaemus tetraspis. In addition, we conducted coalescent-based demographic reconstructions to test the hypothesis that population decline was driven by climate change since the Last Glacial Maximum, vs. more recent anthropogenic pressures. Using a hierarchical Bayesian model to reconstruct demographic history, we show that both species had dramatic declines (>97%) in effective population size in the 'period following the Last Glacial Maximum 1,500-18,000 YBP. Identification of genetic structuring showed both species have similar regional structure corresponding to major geological features (i.e., hydrologic basin) and that small observed differences between them are best explained by the differences in their ecology and the likely impact that climate change had on their habitat needs. Our results support our hypothesis that climatic effects, presumably on forest and wetland habitat, had a congruent negative impact on both species.

Demographic inference through approximate-Bayesian-computation skyline plots

The skyline plot is a graphical representation of historical effective population sizes as a function of time. Past population sizes for these plots are estimated from genetic data, without a priori assumptions on the mathematical function defining the shape of the demographic trajectory. Because of this flexibility in shape, skyline plots can, in principle, provide realistic descriptions of the complex demographic scenarios that occur in natural populations. Currently, demographic estimates needed for skyline plots are estimated using coalescent samplers or a composite likelihood approach. Here, we provide a way to estimate historical effective population sizes using an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework. We assess its performance using simulated and actual microsatellite datasets. Our method correctly retrieves the signal of contracting, constant and expanding populations, although the graphical shape of the plot is not always an accurate representation of the true demographic trajectory, particularly for recent changes in size and contracting populations. Because of the flexibility of ABC, similar approaches can be extended to other types of data, to multiple populations, or to other parameters that can change through time, such as the migration rate.

Estimation of genetic diversity in Gute sheep: pedigree and microsatellite analyses of an ancient Swedish breed

Background

Breeds with small population size are in danger of an increased inbreeding rate and loss of genetic diversity, which puts them at risk for extinction. In Sweden there are a number of local breeds, native breeds which have adapted to specific areas in Sweden, for which efforts are being made to keep them pure and healthy over time. One example of such a breed is the Swedish Gute sheep. The objective of this study was to estimate inbreeding and genetic diversity of Swedish Gute sheep.

Results

Three datasets were analysed: pedigree information of the whole population, pedigree information for 100 animals of the population, and microsatellite genotypes for 94 of the 100 animals. The average inbreeding coefficient for lambs born during a six year time period (2007–2012) did not increase during that time period. The inbreeding calculated from the entire pedigree (0.038) and for a sample of the population (0.018) was very low. Sheep were more heterozygous at the microsatellite markers than expected (average multilocus heterozygosity and Ritland inbreeding estimates 1.01845 and -0.03931) and five of seven microsatellite markers were not in Hardy Weinberg equilibrium due to heterozygosity excess. The total effective population size estimated from the pedigree information was 155.4 and the average harmonic mean effective population size estimated from microsatellites was 88.3. Pedigree and microsatellite genotype estimations of inbreeding were consistent with a breeding program with the purpose of reducing inbreeding.

Conclusion

Our results showed that current breeding programs of the Swedish Gute sheep are consistent with efforts of keeping this breed viable and these breeding programs are an example for other small local breeds in conserving breeds for the future.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s41065-017-0026-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Spatio-temporal genetic structure and the effects of long-term fishing in two partially sympatric offshore demersal fishes

Environmental gradients have been shown to disrupt gene flow in marine species, yet their influence in structuring populations at depth remains poorly understood. The Cape hakes (Merluccius paradoxus and M. capensis) are demersal species co-occurring in the Benguela Current system, where decades of intense fishing resulted in severely depleted stocks in the past. Previous studies identified conflicting mtDNA genetic substructuring patterns and thus contrasting evolutionary trajectories for both species. Using 10 microsatellite loci, the control region of mtDNA and employing a seascape genetics approach, we investigated genetic connectivity and the impact of prolonged exploitation in the two species, which are characterized by different patterns of fishing pressure. Three consecutive years were sampled covering the entire distribution (N = 2100 fishes). Despite large estimated population sizes, both species exhibited low levels of contemporary genetic diversity (0.581 < H_E  < 0.692), implying that fishing has had a significant impact on their genetic composition and evolutionary trajectories. Further, for M. paradoxus, significant temporal, but not spatial, divergence points to the presence of genetic chaotic patchiness. In contrast, M. capensis exhibited a clear latitudinal cline in genetic differentiation between Namibia and South Africa (F_ST  = 0.063, P < 0.05), with low (0.2% per generation) estimates of contemporary gene flow. Seascape analyses reveal an association with bathymetry and upwelling events, suggesting that adaptation to local environmental conditions may drive genetic differentiation in M. capensis. Importantly, our results highlight the need for temporal sampling in disentangling the complex factors that impact population divergence in marine fishes.

Inferring Population Size History from Large Samples of Genome-Wide Molecular Data - An Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach

Inferring the ancestral dynamics of effective population size is a long-standing question in population genetics, which can now be tackled much more accurately thanks to the massive genomic data available in many species. Several promising methods that take advantage of whole-genome sequences have been recently developed in this context. However, they can only be applied to rather small samples, which limits their ability to estimate recent population size history. Besides, they can be very sensitive to sequencing or phasing errors. Here we introduce a new approximate Bayesian computation approach named PopSizeABC that allows estimating the evolution of the effective population size through time, using a large sample of complete genomes. This sample is summarized using the folded allele frequency spectrum and the average zygotic linkage disequilibrium at different bins of physical distance, two classes of statistics that are widely used in population genetics and can be easily computed from unphased and unpolarized SNP data. Our approach provides accurate estimations of past population sizes, from the very first generations before present back to the expected time to the most recent common ancestor of the sample, as shown by simulations under a wide range of demographic scenarios. When applied to samples of 15 or 25 complete genomes in four cattle breeds (Angus, Fleckvieh, Holstein and Jersey), PopSizeABC revealed a series of population declines, related to historical events such as domestication or modern breed creation. We further highlight that our approach is robust to sequencing errors, provided summary statistics are computed from SNPs with common alleles.

Molecular data sampled from extant individuals contains considerable information about their demographic history. In particular, one classical question in population genetics is to reconstruct past population size changes from such data. Relating these changes to various climatic, geological or anthropogenic events allows characterizing the main factors driving genetic diversity and can have major outcomes for conservation. Until recently, mostly very simple histories, including one or two population size changes, could be estimated from genetic data. This has changed with the sequencing of entire genomes in many species, and several methods allow now inferring complex histories consisting of several tens of population size changes. However, analyzing entire genomes, while accounting for recombination, remains a statistical and numerical challenge. These methods, therefore, can only be applied to small samples with a few diploid genomes. We overcome this limitation by using an approximate estimation approach, where observed genomes are summarized using a small number of statistics related to allele frequencies and linkage disequilibrium. In contrast to previous approaches, we show that our method allows us to reconstruct also the most recent part (the last 100 generations) of the population size history. As an illustration, we apply it to large samples of whole-genome sequences in four cattle breeds.

PSMC analysis of effective population sizes in molecular ecology and its application to black-and-white Ficedula flycatchers

Climatic fluctuations during the Quaternary period governed the demography of species and contributed to population differentiation and ultimately speciation. Studies of these past processes have previously been hindered by a lack of means and genetic data to model changes in effective population size (Ne ) through time. However, based on diploid genome sequences of high quality, the recently developed pairwise sequentially Markovian coalescent (PSMC) can estimate trajectories of changes in Ne over considerable time periods. We applied this approach to resequencing data from nearly 200 genomes of four species and several populations of the Ficedula species complex of black-and-white flycatchers. Ne curves of Atlas, collared, pied and semicollared flycatcher converged 1-2 million years ago (Ma) at an Ne of ≈ 200 000, likely reflecting the time when all four species last shared a common ancestor. Subsequent separate Ne trajectories are consistent with lineage splitting and speciation. All species showed evidence of population growth up until 100-200 thousand years ago (kya), followed by decline and then start of a new phase of population expansion. However, timing and amplitude of changes in Ne differed among species, and for pied flycatcher, the temporal dynamics of Ne differed between Spanish birds and central/northern European populations. This cautions against extrapolation of demographic inference between lineages and calls for adequate sampling to provide representative pictures of the coalescence process in different species or populations. We also empirically evaluate criteria for proper inference of demographic histories using PSMC and arrive at recommendations of using sequencing data with a mean genome coverage of ≥18X, a per-site filter of ≥10 reads and no more than 25% of missing data.

Discovery of Genome-Wide Microsatellite Markers in Scombridae: A Pilot Study on Albacore Tuna

Recent developments in sequencing technologies and bioinformatics analysis provide a greater amount of DNA sequencing reads at a low cost. Microsatellites are the markers of choice for a variety of population genetic studies, and high quality markers can be discovered in non-model organisms, such as tuna, with these recent developments. Here, we use a high-throughput method to isolate microsatellite markers in albacore tuna, Thunnus alalunga, based on coupling multiplex enrichment and next-generation sequencing on 454 GS-FLX Titanium pyrosequencing. The crucial minimum number of polymorphic markers to infer evolutionary and ecological processes for this species has been described for the first time. We provide 1670 microsatellite design primer pairs, and technical and molecular genetics selection resulting in 43 polymorphic microsatellite markers. On this panel, we characterized 34 random and selectively neutral markers («neutral») and 9 «non-neutral» markers. The variability of «neutral» markers was screened with 136 individuals of albacore tuna from southwest Indian Ocean (42), northwest Indian Ocean (31), South Africa (31), and southeast Atlantic Ocean (32). Power analysis demonstrated that the panel of genetic markers can be applied in diversity and population genetics studies. Global genetic diversity for albacore was high with a mean number of alleles at 16.94; observed heterozygosity 66% and expected heterozygosity 77%. The number of individuals was insufficient to provide accurate results on differentiation. Of the 9 «non-neutral» markers, 3 were linked to a sequence of known function. The one is located to a sequence having an immunity function (ThuAla-Tcell-01) and the other to a sequence having energy allocation function (ThuAla-Hki-01). These two markers were genotyped on the 136 individuals and presented different diversity levels. ThuAla-Tcell-01 has a high number of alleles (20), heterozygosity (87–90%), and assignment index. ThuAla-Hki-01 has a lower number of alleles (9), low heterozygosity (24–27%), low assignment index and significant inbreeding. Finally, the 34 «neutral» and 3 «non-neutral» microsatellites markers were tested on four economically important Scombridae species—Thunnus albacares, Thunnus thynnus, Thunnus obesus, and Acanthocybium solandri.

Recent insertion/deletion (reINDEL) mutations: increasing awareness to boost molecular-based research in ecology and evolution

Today, the comparative analysis of DNA molecules mainly uses information inferred from nucleotide substitutions. Insertion/deletion (INDEL) mutations, in contrast, are largely considered uninformative and discarded, due to our lacking knowledge on their evolution. However, including rather than discarding INDELs would be relevant to any research area in ecology and evolution that uses molecular data. As a practical approach to better understanding INDEL evolution in general, we propose the study of recent INDEL (reINDEL) mutations – mutations where both ancestral and derived state are seen in the sample. The precondition for reINDEL identification is knowledge about the pedigree of the individuals sampled. Sound reINDEL knowledge will allow the improved modeling needed for including INDELs in the downstream analysis of molecular data. Both microsatellites, currently still the predominant marker system in the analysis of populations, and sequences generated by next-generation sequencing, a promising and rapidly developing range of technologies, offer the opportunity for reINDEL identification. However, a 2013 sample of animal microsatellite studies contained unexpectedly few reINDELs identified. As most likely explanation, we hypothesize that reINDELs are underreported rather than absent and that this underreporting stems from common reINDEL unawareness. If our hypothesis applies, increased reINDEL awareness should allow gathering data rapidly. We recommend the routine reporting of either the absence or presence of reINDELs together with standardized key information on the nature of mutations when they are detected and the use of the keyword “reINDEL” to increase visibility in both instances of successful and unsuccessful search.