Montane forest ecotones moved downslope in northeastern USA in spite of warming between 1984 and 2011

An ensemble model predicts an upward range shift of the endemic and endangered Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) under future climate change in Malawi

Climate change poses a significant threat to endemic and endangered montane bird species with limited elevation and temperature ranges. Understanding their responses to changes in climate is essential for informing conservation actions. This study focused on the montane dwelling Yellow-throated Apalis (Apalis flavigularis) in Malawi, aiming to identify key factors affecting its distribution and predicting its potential distribution under different climate change scenarios. Using an ensemble species distribution modeling approach, we found that the mean temperature of the driest quarter (Bio9), mean temperature of the wettest quarter (Bio8), and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were the most important variables that influenced the distribution of this species. Across future climate scenarios, the species' geographic range declined where range losses varied from 57.74% (2050 RCP 6.0) to 82.88% (2070 RCP 6.0). We estimate its current range size to be 549 km2 which is lower than some previous estimates of its spatial distribution. Moreover, our projections indicate that under future climate scenarios, the species will shift to higher elevations with a large proportion of suitable areas located outside forests, posing challenges for adaptation. Our results suggest that the species may be under greater threat than previously thought; hence, urgent conservation actions are required. We recommend reinforcing the protection of areas predicted to remain suitable under future climate scenarios and the development of a species conservation action plan.

Using warming tolerances to predict understory plant responses to climate change

Climate change is pushing species towards and potentially beyond their critical thermal limits. The extent to which species can cope with temperatures exceeding their critical thermal limits is still uncertain. To better assess species' responses to warming, we compute the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) as a thermal vulnerability index, using species' upper thermal limits (the temperature at the warm limit of their distribution range) minus the local habitat temperature actually experienced at a given location. This metric is useful to predict how much more warming species can tolerate before negative impacts are expected to occur. Here we set up a cross-continental transplant experiment involving five regions distributed along a latitudinal gradient across Europe (43° N-61° N). Transplant sites were located in dense and open forests stands, and at forest edges and in interiors. We estimated the warming tolerance for 12 understory plant species common in European temperate forests. During 3 years, we examined the effects of the warming tolerance of each species across all transplanted locations on local plant performance, in terms of survival, height, ground cover, flowering probabilities and flower number. We found that the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) of the 12 studied understory species was significantly different across Europe and varied by up to 8°C. In general, ΔTniche were smaller (less positive) towards the forest edge and in open stands. Plant performance (growth and reproduction) increased with increasing ΔTniche across all 12 species. Our study demonstrated that ΔTniche of understory plant species varied with macroclimatic differences among regions across Europe, as well as in response to forest microclimates, albeit to a lesser extent. Our findings support the hypothesis that plant performance across species decreases in terms of growth and reproduction as local temperature conditions reach or exceed the warm limit of the focal species.

Using composite system index to identify China's ecological and socio-economic transition zone

Regions with synthetic geographical gradients tend to exhibit distinct ecological transitions. As a compound ecosystem, transition zone can provide a basis for decision-making in the sustainable ecological management by investigating its boundary and complexity. To determine the characteristics of the transition zone where natural ecological and socio-economic factors interact, a conceptual framework and a quantitative identification method for the ecotone of coupled human and natural systems have been proposed. The composite system index can be used to ascertain the coupling intensity, coupling direction, and ecological transition of the system. Taking China as an example, this study showed evidence of the existence of a tremendous amount of ecological and socio-economic transition zone (complex coupled areas) between the east and west of China, and sporadic ecotone in other regions of the country. This transition zone accounted for about 1/4 of China's land surface area, and had a fragile environment that faced challenges of environmental protection and economic development. In the area across the Hu Line, human and natural factors jointly explain a low proportion of the variance in ecological and socio-economic transition zone (the complexity of coupled systems, with 62.01% of unexplained proportion higher than that in other regions). In this region, the topographic position index was the critical element associated with the transition zone, and accounted for nearly 20% of the variation of composite system index. The discovery and characterization of the ecological and socio-economic transition zone is crucial for understanding its uncertainty and diversity and the complex of coupled ecosystems.

Cold-air pools as microrefugia for ecosystem functions in the face of climate change

Cold-air pooling is a global phenomenon that frequently sustains low temperatures in sheltered, low-lying depressions and valleys and drives other key environmental conditions, such as soil temperature, soil moisture, vapor pressure deficit, frost frequency, and winter dynamics. Local climate patterns in areas prone to cold-air pooling are partly decoupled from regional climates and thus may be buffered from macroscale climate change. There is compelling evidence from studies across the globe that cold-air pooling impacts plant communities and species distributions, making these decoupled microclimate areas potentially important microrefugia for species under climate warming. Despite interest in the potential for cold-air pools to enable species persistence under warming, studies investigating the effects of cold-air pooling on ecosystem processes are scarce. Because local temperatures and vegetation composition are critical drivers of ecosystem processes like carbon cycling and storage, cold-air pooling may also act to preserve ecosystem functions. We review research exploring the ecological impacts of cold-air pooling with a focus on vegetation, and then present a new conceptual framework in which cold-air pooling creates feedbacks between species and ecosystem properties that generate unique hotspots for carbon accrual in some systems relative to areas more vulnerable to regional climate change impacts. Finally, we describe key steps to motivate future research investigating the potential for cold-air pools to serve as microrefugia for ecosystem functions under climate change.

Climate change effects on biodiversity, ecosystems, ecosystem services, and natural resource management in the United States

Climate change is a pervasive and growing global threat to biodiversity and ecosystems. Here, we present the most up-to-date assessment of climate change impacts on biodiversity, ecosystems, and ecosystem services in the U.S. and implications for natural resource management. We draw from the 4th National Climate Assessment to summarize observed and projected changes to ecosystems and biodiversity, explore linkages to important ecosystem services, and discuss associated challenges and opportunities for natural resource management. We find that species are responding to climate change through changes in morphology and behavior, phenology, and geographic range shifts, and these changes are mediated by plastic and evolutionary responses. Responses by species and populations, combined with direct effects of climate change on ecosystems (including more extreme events), are resulting in widespread changes in productivity, species interactions, vulnerability to biological invasions, and other emergent properties. Collectively, these impacts alter the benefits and services that natural ecosystems can provide to society. Although not all impacts are negative, even positive changes can require costly societal adjustments. Natural resource managers need proactive, flexible adaptation strategies that consider historical and future outlooks to minimize costs over the long term. Many organizations are beginning to explore these approaches, but implementation is not yet prevalent or systematic across the nation.

Non-Structural Carbohydrate Storage Strategy Explains the Spatial Distribution of Treeline Species

Environmental factors that drive carbon storage are often used as an explanation for alpine treeline formation. However, different tree species respond differently to environmental changes, which challenges our understanding of treeline formation and shifts. Therefore, we selected Picea jezoensis and Betula ermanii, the two treeline species naturally occurring in Changbai Mountain in China, and measured the concentration of non-structural carbohydrates (NSC), soluble sugars and starch in one-year-old leaves, shoots, stems and fine roots at different elevations. We found that compared with P. jezoensis, the NSC and soluble sugars concentrations of leaves and shoots of B. ermanii were higher than those of P. jezoensis, while the starch concentration of all the tissues were lower. Moreover, the concentration of NSC, soluble sugars and starch in the leaves of B. ermanii decreased with elevation. In addition, the starch concentration of B. ermanii shoots, stems and fine roots remained at a high level regardless of whether the soluble sugars concentration decreased. Whereas the concentrations of soluble sugars and starch in one-year-old leaves, shoots and stems of P. jezoensis responded similarly changes with elevation. These findings demonstrate that compared with P. jezoensis, B. ermanii has a higher soluble sugars/starch ratio, and its shoots, stems and fine roots actively store NSC to adapt to the harsh environment, which is one of the reasons that B. ermanii can be distributed at higher altitudes.

Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Tree Species of the Eastern US: Results of DISTRIB-II Modeling

Forests across the globe are faced with a rapidly changing climate and an enhanced understanding of how these changing conditions may impact these vital resources is needed. Our approach is to use DISTRIB-II, an updated version of the Random Forest DISTRIB model, to model 125 tree species individually from the eastern United States to quantify potential current and future habitat responses under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 8.5 -high emissions which is our current trajectory and RCP 4.5 -lower emissions by implementing energy conservation) and three climate models. Climate change could have large impacts on suitable habitat for tree species in the eastern United States, especially under a high emissions trajectory. On average, of the 125 species, approximately 88 species would gain and 26 species would lose at least 10% of their suitable habitat. The projected change in the center of gravity for each species distribution (i.e., mean center) between current and future habitat moves generally northeast, with 81 species habitat centers potentially moving over 100 km under RCP 8.5. Collectively, our results suggest that many species will experience less pressure in tracking their suitable habitats under a path of lower greenhouse gas emissions.

Stronger influence of anthropogenic disturbance than climate change on century-scale compositional changes in northern forests

Predicting future ecosystem dynamics depends critically on an improved understanding of how disturbances and climate change have driven long-term ecological changes in the past. Here we assembled a dataset of >100,000 tree species lists from the 19th century across a broad region (>130,000km²) in temperate eastern Canada, as well as recent forest inventories, to test the effects of changes in anthropogenic disturbance, temperature and moisture on forest dynamics. We evaluate changes in forest composition using four indices quantifying the affinities of co-occurring tree species with temperature, drought, light and disturbance. Land-use driven shifts favouring more disturbance-adapted tree species are far stronger than any effects ascribable to climate change, although the responses of species to disturbance are correlated with their expected responses to climate change. As such, anthropogenic and natural disturbances are expected to have large direct effects on forests and also indirect effects via altered responses to future climate change.

Separating anthropogenic and climatic impacts on forest compositions can be challenging due to a lack of data. Here the authors look at forest compositional changes in eastern Canada since the 19th century and find land use has most strongly shaped communities towards disturbance-adapted species.

Virtual issue: Alpine and subalpine plant communities: importance of plant growth, reproduction and community assemblage processes for changing environments

Natural plant communities are exposed to environmental changes such as global warming and increased human activities. It is thought that alpine and subalpine ecosystems with cool climatic conditions are sensitive to environmental changes. This virtual issue introduces multidisciplinary research at alpine and subalpine plant communities. The articles include research on (1) species diversity, vegetation and biomass, (2) species assembly, (3) climate and growth of alpine plants, (4) reproduction of alpine plants, (5) differences of growth traits among coexisting species, (6) vegetation changes by human activities and overgrazing of deer, and (7) differentiation of growth traits among ecotypes in relation to climatic conditions. These thirteen articles provide valuable information for future research on the effects of environmental changes on alpine and subalpine plant communities.

The surprising recovery of red spruce growth shows links to decreased acid deposition and elevated temperature

Following growth declines and increased mortality linked to acid deposition-induced calcium depletion, red spruce (Picea rubens Sarg.) in the northeastern United States are experiencing a recovery. We found that more than 75% of red spruce trees and 90% of the plots examined in this study exhibited increasing growth since 2001. To understand this change, we assessed the relationship between red spruce radial growth and factors that may influence growth: tree age and diameter, stand dynamics, plot characteristics (elevation, slope, aspect, geographical position), and a suite of environmental variables (temperature, precipitation, climate and precipitation indices (degree days, SPEI [standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index], and acid deposition [SO₄^2-, NO₃^-, pH of rainfall, cation:anion ratio of rainfall]) for 52 plots (658 trees) from five states (spanning 2.5°N × 5°W). Examining the growth relationships from 1925 to 2012, we found that while there was variability in response to climate and acid deposition (limited to 1980-2012) by elevation and location, plot and tree factors did not adequately explain growth. Higher temperatures outside the traditional growing season (e.g., fall, winter, and spring) were related to increased growth. Nitrogen deposition (1980-2012) was associated with lower growth, but the strength of this relationship has lessened over time. Overall, we predict sustained favorable conditions for red spruce in the near term as acid deposition continues to decline and non-traditional growing season (fall through spring) temperatures moderate, provided that overall temperatures and precipitation remain adequate for growth.

Warming-induced upward migration of the alpine treeline in the Changbai Mountains, northeast China

Treeline responses to environmental changes describe an important phenomenon in global change research. Often conflicting results and generally too short observations are, however, still challenging our understanding of climate-induced treeline dynamics. Here, we use a state-of-the-art dendroecological approach to reconstruct long-term changes in the position of the alpine treeline in relation to air temperature at two sides in the Changbai Mountains in northeast China. Over the past 160 years, the treeline increased by around 80 m, a process that can be divided into three phases of different rates and drives. The first phase was mainly influenced by vegetation recovery after an eruption of the Tianchi volcano in 1702. The slowly upward shift in the second phase was consistent with the slowly increasing temperature. The last phase coincided with rapid warming since 1985, and shows with 33 m per 1°C, the most intense upward shift. The spatial distribution and age structure of trees beyond the current treeline confirm the latest, warming-induced upward shift. Our results suggest that the alpine treeline will continue to rise, and that the alpine tundra may disappear if temperatures will increase further. This study not only enhances mechanistic understanding of long-term treeline dynamics, but also highlights the effects of rising temperatures on high-elevation vegetation dynamics.

Tree demography suggests multiple directions and drivers for species range shifts in mountains of Northeastern United States

Climate change is expected to lead to upslope shifts in tree species distributions, but the evidence is mixed partly due to land-use effects and individualistic species responses to climate. We examined how individual tree species demography varies along elevational climatic gradients across four states in the northeastern United States to determine whether species elevational distributions and their potential upslope (or downslope) shifts were controlled by climate, land-use legacies (past logging), or soils. We characterized tree demography, microclimate, land-use legacies, and soils at 83 sites stratified by elevation (~500 to ~1200 m above sea level) across 12 mountains containing the transition from northern hardwood to spruce-fir forests. We modeled elevational distributions of tree species saplings and adults using logistic regression to test whether sapling distributions suggest ongoing species range expansion upslope (or contraction downslope) relative to adults, and we used linear mixed models to determine the extent to which climate, land use, and soil variables explain these distributions. Tree demography varied with elevation by species, suggesting a potential upslope shift only for American beech, downslope shifts for red spruce (more so in cool regions) and sugar maple, and no change with elevation for balsam fir. While soils had relatively minor effects, climate was the dominant predictor for most species and more so for saplings than adults of red spruce, sugar maple, yellow birch, cordate birch, and striped maple. On the other hand, logging legacies were positively associated with American beech, sugar maple, and yellow birch, and negatively with red spruce and balsam fir - generally more so for adults than saplings. All species exhibited individualistic rather than synchronous demographic responses to climate and land use, and the return of red spruce to lower elevations where past logging originally benefited northern hardwood species indicates that land use may mask species range shifts caused by changing climate.

Vulnerability of eastern US tree species to climate change

Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of tree species because of critical environmental tolerances related to growth, mortality, reproduction, disturbances, and biotic interactions. How this is realized in 21st century remains uncertain, in large part due to limitations on plant migration and the impacts of landscape fragmentation. Understanding these changes is of particular concern for forest management, which requires information at an appropriately fine spatial resolution. Here we provide a framework and application for tree species vulnerability to climate change in the eastern United States that accounts for influential drivers of future distributions. We used species distribution models to project changes in habitat suitability at 800 m for 40 tree species that vary in physiology, range, and environmental niche. We then developed layers of adaptive capacity based on migration potential, forest fragmentation, and propagule pressure. These were combined into metrics of vulnerability, including an overall index and spatially explicit categories designed to inform management. Despite overall favorable changes in suitability, the majority of species and the landscape were considered vulnerable to climate change. Vulnerability was significantly exacerbated by projections of pests and pathogens for some species. Northern and high-elevation species tended to be the most vulnerable. There were, however, some notable areas of particular resilience, including most of West Virginia. Our approach combines some of the most important considerations for species vulnerability in a straightforward framework, and can be used as a tool for managers to prioritize species, areas, and actions.

Increased seedling establishment via enemy release at the upper elevational range limit of sugar maple

The enemy release hypothesis is frequently invoked to explain invasion by nonnative species, but studies focusing on the influence of enemies on natural plant range expansion due to climate change remain scarce. We combined multiple approaches to study the influence of plant-enemy interactions on the upper elevational range limit of sugar maple (Acer saccharum) in southeastern Québec, Canada, where a previous study had demonstrated intense seed predation just beyond the range limit. Consistent with the hypothesis of release from natural enemies at the range limit, data from both natural patterns of regeneration and from seed and seedling transplant experiments showed higher seedling densities at the range edge than in the core of the species' distribution. A growth chamber experiment manipulating soil origin and temperature indicated that this so-called "happy edge" was not likely caused by temperature (i.e., the possibility that climate warming has made high elevation temperatures optimal for sugar maple) or by abiotic soil factors that vary along the elevational gradient. Finally, an insect-herbivore-exclusion experiment showed that insect herbivory was a major cause of seedling mortality in the core of sugar maple's distribution, whereas seedlings transplanted at or beyond the range edge experienced minimal herbivory (i.e., enemy release). Insect herbivory did not completely explain the high levels of seedling mortality in the core of the species' distribution, suggesting that seedlings at or beyond the range edge may also experience release from pathogens. In sum, while some effects of enemies are magnified beyond range edges (e.g., seed predation), others are dampened at and beyond the range edge (e.g., insect herbivory), such that understanding the net outcome of different biotic interactions within, at and beyond the edge of distribution is critical to predicting species' responses to global change.

Population trends influence species ability to track climate change

Shifts of distributions have been attributed to species tracking their fundamental climate niches through space. However, several studies have now demonstrated that niche tracking is imperfect, that species' climate niches may vary with population trends, and that geographic distributions may lag behind rapid climate change. These reports of imperfect niche tracking imply shifts in species' realized climate niches. We argue that quantifying climate niche shifts and analyzing them for a suite of species reveal general patterns of niche shifts and the factors affecting species' ability to track climate change. We analyzed changes in realized climate niche between 1984 and 2012 for 46 species of North American birds in relation to population trends in an effort to determine whether species differ in the ability to track climate change and whether differences in niche tracking are related to population trends. We found that increasingly abundant species tended to show greater levels of niche expansion (climate space occupied in 2012 but not in 1980) compared to declining species. Declining species had significantly greater niche unfilling (climate space occupied in 1980 but not in 2012) compared to increasing species due to an inability to colonize new sites beyond their range peripheries after climate had changed at sites of occurrence. Increasing species, conversely, were better able to colonize new sites and therefore showed very little niche unfilling. Our results indicate that species with increasing trends are better able to geographically track climate change compared to declining species, which exhibited lags relative to changes in climate. These findings have important implications for understanding past changes in distribution, as well as modeling dynamic species distributions in the face of climate change.

The impacts of increasing drought on forest dynamics, structure, and biodiversity in the United States

We synthesize insights from current understanding of drought impacts at stand-to-biogeographic scales, including management options, and we identify challenges to be addressed with new research. Large stand-level shifts underway in western forests already are showing the importance of interactions involving drought, insects, and fire. Diebacks, changes in composition and structure, and shifting range limits are widely observed. In the eastern US, the effects of increasing drought are becoming better understood at the level of individual trees, but this knowledge cannot yet be confidently translated to predictions of changing structure and diversity of forest stands. While eastern forests have not experienced the types of changes seen in western forests in recent decades, they too are vulnerable to drought and could experience significant changes with increased severity, frequency, or duration in drought. Throughout the continental United States, the combination of projected large climate-induced shifts in suitable habitat from modeling studies and limited potential for the rapid migration of tree populations suggests that changing tree and forest biogeography could substantially lag habitat shifts already underway. Forest management practices can partially ameliorate drought impacts through reductions in stand density, selection of drought-tolerant species and genotypes, artificial regeneration, and the development of multistructured stands. However, silvicultural treatments also could exacerbate drought impacts unless implemented with careful attention to site and stand characteristics. Gaps in our understanding should motivate new research on the effects of interactions involving climate and other species at the stand scale and how interactions and multiple responses are represented in models. This assessment indicates that, without a stronger empirical basis for drought impacts at the stand scale, more complex models may provide limited guidance.

Predicting tree biomass growth in the temperate-boreal ecotone: Is tree size, age, competition, or climate response most important?

As global temperatures rise, variation in annual climate is also changing, with unknown consequences for forest biomes. Growing forests have the ability to capture atmospheric CO2 and thereby slow rising CO2 concentrations. Forests' ongoing ability to sequester C depends on how tree communities respond to changes in climate variation. Much of what we know about tree and forest response to climate variation comes from tree-ring records. Yet typical tree-ring datasets and models do not capture the diversity of climate responses that exist within and among trees and species. We address this issue using a model that estimates individual tree response to climate variables while accounting for variation in individuals' size, age, competitive status, and spatially structured latent covariates. Our model allows for inference about variance within and among species. We quantify how variables influence aboveground biomass growth of individual trees from a representative sample of 15 northern or southern tree species growing in a transition zone between boreal and temperate biomes. Individual trees varied in their growth response to fluctuating mean annual temperature and summer moisture stress. The variation among individuals within a species was wider than mean differences among species. The effects of mean temperature and summer moisture stress interacted, such that warm years produced positive responses to summer moisture availability and cool years produced negative responses. As climate models project significant increases in annual temperatures, growth of species like Acer saccharum, Quercus rubra, and Picea glauca will vary more in response to summer moisture stress than in the past. The magnitude of biomass growth variation in response to annual climate was 92-95% smaller than responses to tree size and age. This means that measuring or predicting the physical structure of current and future forests could tell us more about future C dynamics than growth responses related to climate change alone.