Rapid warming and drought negatively impact population size and reproductive dynamics of an avian predator in the arid southwest

Climate-related drivers of migratory bird health in the south-central USA

Migratory birds are species of concern that play important ecological roles while also supporting recreational opportunities for the hunting and birdwatching public. Direct and indirect effects of climate variability, extremes, and change on migratory bird health manifest at the individual, population, species, and community levels. This review focuses on the effects of climate on migratory birds that spend part of their life cycles in the south-central USA. Although gaps in knowledge remain, prior studies provide a solid foundation to understand how climate affects migratory birds to inform management priorities and actions.

Intermediate Habitat Fragmentation Buffers Droughts: How Individual Energy Dynamics Mediate Mammal Community Response to Stressors

Biodiversity is threatened by land-use and climate change. Although these processes are known to influence species survival and diversity, predicting their combined effects on communities remains challenging. We here aim to disentangle the combined effects of drought-induced resource shortage and habitat fragmentation on species coexistence. To understand how both fragmentation and droughts affect individual movement and physiology, and ultimately influence population and community dynamics, we use an individual-based metabolic modelling approach to simulate a community of small mammals. Individuals forage in the landscape to ingest energy, which they then allocate to basal maintenance, digestion, locomotion, growth, reproduction, and storage. If individuals of several species are able to balance their energy intake and needs, and additionally store energy as fat reserves, they may overcome stress periods and coexist. We find that species recover best after a drought when they live in moderately fragmented landscapes compared to those with low or high fragmentation. In low fragmented landscapes, high local competition during resource shortages is problematic, while in highly fragmented landscapes, low energy balance and storage often lead to high mortality during drought. Intermediately fragmented landscapes balance these effects and show the least impact of droughts on species richness, a pattern that holds also when integrating observed drought time series from monitoring data in the model simulations. Due to the interacting negative impacts, we suggest that with ongoing global change, it is increasingly important to understand stressors simultaneously to identify measures that support species coexistence and biodiversity. Including individual energy dynamics allowed us to conflate the different global change effects through energy storage and energy allocation to different processes. Our presented community model, which integrates metabolic and behavioural reactions of individuals to different stressors and scales them to the community level, offers valuable insights with great potential to support nature conservation.

Chasing the Niche: Escaping Climate Change Threats in Place, Time, and Space

Climate change is creating mismatches between species' current environments and their historical niches. Locations that once had the abiotic and biotic conditions to support the persistence of a species may now be too warm, too dry, or simply too different, to meet their niche requirements. Changes in behaviors, altered phenology, and range shifts are common responses to climate change. Though these responses are often studied in isolation by scientists from disparate subfields of ecology, they all represent variants of the same solution-strategies to realign the conditions populations experience with their niche. Here, we aim to (1) identify the physiological and ecological effects, and potential alignment, of these three ecological responses: shifts in behavior, phenology, or ranges, (2) determine the circumstances under which each type of response may be more or less effective at mitigating the effects of climate change, and (3) consider how these strategies might interact with each other. Each response has been previously reviewed, but efforts to consider relationships between ecological (or with evolutionary) responses have been limited. A synthetic perspective that considers the similarities among ecological responses and how they interact with each other and with evolutionary responses offers a more robust view on species' resilience to climate change.

Telomere Length Differences Indicate Climate Change-Induced Stress and Population Decline in a Migratory Bird

Genomic projections of (mal)adaptation under future climate change, known as genomic offset, faces limited application due to challenges in validating model predictions. Individuals inhabiting regions with high genomic offset are expected to experience increased levels of physiological stress as a result of climate change, but documenting such stress can be challenging in systems where experimental manipulations are not possible. One increasingly common method for documenting physiological costs associated with stress in individuals is to measure the relative length of telomeres-the repetitive regions on the caps of chromosomes that are known to shorten at faster rates in more adverse conditions. Here we combine models of genomic offsets with measures of telomere shortening in a migratory bird, the yellow warbler (Setophaga petechia), and find a strong correlation between genomic offset, telomere length and population decline. While further research is needed to fully understand these links, our results support the idea that birds in regions where climate change is happening faster are experiencing more stress and that such negative effects may help explain the observed population declines.

Clutch Size, but Not Egg Volume, Increases with Rainfall in an Arid-Dwelling Bird

Understanding how animals maximize reproductive success in variable environments is important in determining how populations will respond to increasingly extreme weather events predicted in the face of changing climates. Although temperature is generally considered a key factor in reproductive decisions, rainfall is also an important predictor of prey availability in arid environments. Here, we test the impact of weather (i.e., rainfall and temperature) on female reproductive investment in an arid-dwelling bird (i.e., clutch size and egg volume) and tradeoffs between the two. We predicted that female chestnut-crowned babblers (Pomatostomus ruficeps), endemic to the arid region of Australia, would increase clutch size at the expense of egg volume in response to variation in rainfall and temperature. We found that over 14 breeding seasons, clutch size decreased with increasing temperature, but increased following more rain. Egg volume, on the other hand, became larger as temperatures increased and, although not related to the amount of rain, was related to the number of days since the last rainfall. Finally, egg size decreased as clutch size increased, indicating a tradeoff between the two reproductive parameters. Our results suggest that chestnut-crowned babblers breed reactively in response to variable environments. We expect that clutch size variation in response to rain may reflect the impact of rain on arthropod abundance, whereas the effect of temperature may represent an established decline in clutch size observed in other seasonal breeders. As the tradeoff between clutch size and egg volume was modest and clutch sizes were modified to a greater extent than egg volumes in response to rainfall, we suggest selection is more likely to increase offspring number than quality, at least in favorable years. Our results support the idea that reproductive investment is variable in fluctuating environments, which has implications for species living in habitats experiencing more extreme and less predictable weather as the global climate changes.

Biological traits and biome features mediate responses of terrestrial bird demography to droughts

Changing drought regimes are a rising threat to biodiversity, yet their impacts on wildlife vary greatly. Acknowledging the factors associated with these consequences brings novel insights into species vulnerability resulting from extreme climatic events and facilitates effective mitigation of climate change risks. Based on 319 observations from 29 peer-reviewed studies on birds-a well-monitored taxonomic group-we extract the responses of demographic metrics to droughts for 204 species across eight terrestrial biomes to examine the consequences of droughts. According to relevant studies, we chose the factors potentially moderating bird demography under droughts and compiled the data for these factors from published datasets. A meta-analysis is performed to determine the drought effect on bird demography at individual and population levels, accounting for the influence of species traits, timescale and severity of droughts, as well as biome features. The results show that droughts have an overall negative effect on bird demography, and the effect is mediated by different factors at each level. For individuals exposed to droughts, declines in demographic rates are found to be related to narrower extents of occurrence of species, and a significant overall reduction in demographic rates is identified for individuals residing in deserts and xeric shrublands. At the population level, declines in abundance or reproductive performance are generally identified for invertivores, frugivores, nectarivores and omnivores; short-lived species with small clutch sizes also show greater susceptibilities under the impacts of droughts. Our findings additionally suggest that the demographic vulnerability of bird individuals and populations could be affected by the duration and magnitude of drought episodes. Although our results are subject to publication bias, these conclusions advance the assessment of vulnerability to extreme climatic events that used to be based on equally weighted species traits and support bird conservation by prioritizing the declining populations of species with drought-susceptible traits.

Spatial Nonstationarity in Phenological Responses of Nearctic Birds to Climate Variability

Climate change is shifting the phenology of migratory animals earlier; yet an understanding of how climate change leads to variable shifts across populations, species and communities remains hampered by limited spatial and taxonomic sampling. In this study, we used a hierarchical Bayesian model to analyse 88,965 site-specific arrival dates from 222 bird species over 21 years to investigate the role of temperature, snowpack, precipitation, the El-Niño/Southern Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation on the spring arrival timing of Nearctic birds. Interannual variation in bird arrival on breeding grounds was most strongly explained by temperature and snowpack, and less strongly by precipitation and climate oscillations. Sensitivity of arrival timing to climatic variation exhibited spatial nonstationarity, being highly variable within and across species. A high degree of heterogeneity in phenological sensitivity suggests diverging responses to ongoing climatic changes at the population, species and community scale, with potentially negative demographic and ecological consequences.

Sensitivity of North American grassland birds to weather and climate variability

Grassland birds in North America have declined sharply over the last 60 years, driven by the widespread loss and degradation of grassland habitats. Climate change is occurring more rapidly in grasslands relative to some other ecosystems, and exposure to extreme and novel climate conditions may affect grassland bird ecology and demographics. To determine the potential effects of weather and climate variability on grassland birds, we conducted a systematic review of relationships between temperature and precipitation and demographic responses in grassland bird species of North America. Based on 124 independent studies, we used a vote-counting approach to quantify the frequency and direction of significant effects of weather and climate variability on grassland birds. Grassland birds tended to experience positive and negative effects of higher temperatures and altered precipitation. Moderate, sustained increases in mean temperature and precipitation benefitted some species, but extreme heat, drought, and heavy rainfall often reduced abundance and nest success. These patterns varied among climate regions, temporal scales of temperature and precipitation (<1 or ≥1 month), and taxa. The sensitivity of grassland bird populations to extreme weather and altered climate variability will likely be mediated by regional climates, interaction with other stressors, life-history strategies of various species, and species' tolerances for novel climate conditions.

Avian responses to climate extremes: insights into abundance curves and species sensitivity using the UK Breeding Bird Survey

Climate change remains one of the most urgent challenges for biodiversity conservation. Recent studies have highlighted that climate extremes (CLEXs) can lead to widespread and negative effects across all taxa and ecological levels, but most of these studies are based on short-term periods and small spatial scales and lack a multi-species approach. Here, using generalised additive models (GAMs) and the UK Breeding Bird Survey (BBS), we described response curves for the abundance of 100 resident bird species over large spatial and temporal scales and identified the species showing a greater sensitivity to CLEXs. We used five climatic indices computed at 1-km spatial resolution as proxies of CLEXs during the winter or breeding season and considered both 1- and 2-year lagged effects. The results demonstrated widespread and significant effects of CLEXs on bird abundances at both time lags and in both seasons. Winter frost days (FD0), summer days (SU25) during the breeding season and simple precipitation intensity index (SDII) during the breeding season mainly showed negative effects. Daily temperature range (DTR) in both winter and breeding season and dry days (DD) during the breeding season led to diversified responses across the species, with a prevalence of positive effects. A large proportion of species showed a high sensitivity to CLEXs, highlighting that these species may deserve attention in future studies aimed at biodiversity conservation. We demonstrated that CLEXs can represent a significant driver affecting population abundances over large spatial and temporal scales, emphasising the need for understanding mechanistic processes at the basis of the observed effects.

Using GPS tracking to monitor the breeding performance of a low-density raptor improves accuracy, and reduces long-term financial and carbon costs

Traditionally, demographic monitoring of birds has been undertaken by intensive monitoring of nesting sites. However, this is challenging for low-density species, whereby the effort and costs involved in locating and monitoring remote sites can be prohibitive or even bias research findings. We show that Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking can overcome these challenges for a low-density raptor. Field monitoring of martial eagles Polemaetus bellicosus from 2013 to 2021 showed consistently poor breeding performance, with a mean productivity of 0.22 (±0.04) fledged young/pair/year. Using GPS tracking data to infer breeding performance gave a significantly higher productivity of 0.46 (±0.10) fledged young/pair/year. Breeding rate and success were also underestimated by field monitoring. These differences were likely due to logistical constraints of field monitoring, particularly relating to finding alternative nests. Comparing costs between approaches, we estimated that GPS monitoring was financially cheaper than field monitoring per sample after 10 years. Carbon costs per sample were lower for GPS-based approaches than field monitoring from the second year, and over a 10-year period GPS monitoring produced considerable savings (200% less carbon). We recommend that despite high initial costs, for long-term demographic monitoring of low-density species, or where logistical constraints make traditional field monitoring inaccurate, remote monitoring options should be considered.

Could an event of extreme drought (2019-2020) affect the feeding ecology of Bubo magellanicus (Gmelin 1788) (Strigiformes: Strigidae) in a Mediterranean region of Chile?

Global warming generates changes in environmental conditions, affecting the spatial-temporal dynamics of precipitation and temperature. Droughts, events of low rainfall, are becoming more frequent and severe. In central Chile, from 2010 to date, an unprecedented drought event has developed, affecting the ecosystem and creating pressure on the dynamics of food webs. The present study analysed the trophic ecology of Bubo magellanicus, a top predator in the Mediterranean region of Chile, between 2019 and 2020 a period with a rainfall deficit of 72.6%. Our results established a diet mainly described by invertebrates (97.75%), in particular by the Gramnostola rosea spider (87.86%), and a low contribution of small vertebrates (2.24%). The trophic niche breadth (B = 0.37) and the standardised Levin's index (BSTA = 0.01) are the lowest recorded in the species B. magellanicus. A comparative analysis of trophic ecology with other studies developed in the same region established significant differences in the composition of the diet (frequency of occurrence of prey unit). This work provides evidence that droughts and other extreme environmental scenarios restructure the food webs of an ecosystem, with direct consequences on the trophic niche of the species, specifically top predators.

Global patterns of climate change impacts on desert bird communities

The world's warm deserts are predicted to experience disproportionately large temperature increases due to climate change, yet the impacts on global desert biodiversity remain poorly understood. Because species in warm deserts live close to their physiological limits, additional warming may induce local extinctions. Here, we combine climate change projections with biophysical models and species distributions to predict physiological impacts of climate change on desert birds globally. Our results show heterogeneous impacts between and within warm deserts. Moreover, spatial patterns of physiological impacts do not simply mirror air temperature changes. Climate change refugia, defined as warm desert areas with high avian diversity and low predicted physiological impacts, are predicted to persist in varying extents in different desert realms. Only a small proportion (<20%) of refugia fall within existing protected areas. Our analysis highlights the need to increase protection of refugial areas within the world's warm deserts to protect species from climate change.

Collapse of Breeding Success in Desert-Dwelling Hornbills Evident Within a Single Decade

Rapid anthropogenic climate change potentially severely reduces avian breeding success. While the consequences of high temperatures and drought are reasonably well-studied within single breeding seasons, their impacts over decadal time scales are less clear. We assessed the effects of air temperature (Tair) and drought on the breeding output of southern yellow-billed hornbills (Tockus leucomelas; hornbills) in the Kalahari Desert over a decade (2008–2019). We aimed to document trends in breeding performance in an arid-zone bird during a time of rapid global warming and identify potential drivers of variation in breeding performance. The breeding output of our study population collapsed during the monitoring period. Comparing the first three seasons (2008–2011) of monitoring to the last three seasons (2016–2019), the mean percentage of nest boxes that were occupied declined from 52% to 12%, nest success from 58% to 17%, and mean fledglings produced per breeding attempt from 1.1 to 0.4. Breeding output was negatively correlated with increasing days on which Tmax (mean maximum daily Tair) exceeded the threshold Tair at which male hornbills show a 50% likelihood of engaging in heat dissipation behavior [i.e., panting (Tthresh; Tair = 34.5°C)] and the occurrence of drought within the breeding season, as well as later dates for entry into the nest cavity (i.e., nest initiation) and fewer days post-hatch, spent incarcerated in the nest by the female parent. The apparent effects of high Tair were present even in non-drought years; of the 115 breeding attempts that were recorded, all 18 attempts that had ≥ 72% days during the attempt on which Tmax &gt; Tthresh failed (equivalent to Tmax during the attempt ≥ 35.7°C). This suggests that global warming was likely the primary driver of the recent, rapid breeding success collapse. Based on current warming trends, the Tmax threshold of 35.7°C, above which no successful breeding attempts were recorded, will be exceeded during the entire hornbill breeding season by approximately 2027 at our study site. Therefore, our findings support the prediction that climate change may drive rapid declines and cause local extinctions despite the absence of direct lethal effects of extreme heat events.

Linking migratory performance to breeding phenology and productivity in an Afro-Palearctic long-distance migrant

Understanding the relationship between migratory performance and fitness is crucial for predicting population dynamics of migratory species. In this study, we used geolocators to explore migration performance (speed and duration of migratory movements, migratory timings) and its association with breeding phenology and productivity in an Afro-Palearctic insectivore, the European bee-eater (Merops apiaster), breeding in Iberian Peninsula. Bee-eaters migrated at higher travel speeds and had shorter travel duration in spring compared to autumn. Individuals that departed earlier or spent fewer days in-flight arrived earlier to the breeding areas. Our results show overall positive, but year-specific, linkages between arrival and laying dates. In one year, laying was earlier and productivity was higher, remaining constant throughout the season, while in the subsequent year productivity was lower and, importantly, declined with laying date. These results suggest that arriving earlier can be advantageous for bee-eaters, as in years when breeding conditions are favourable, early and late breeders produce high and similar number of fledglings, but when conditions are unfavourable only early breeders experience high productivity levels.

Direct and indirect effects of high temperatures on fledging in a cooperatively breeding bird

High temperatures and low rainfall consistently constrain reproduction in arid-zone bird species. Understanding the mechanisms underlying this pattern is critical for predicting how climate change will influence population persistence and to inform conservation and management. In this study, we analyzed Southern Pied Babbler Turdoides bicolor nestling survival, daily growth rate and adult investment behavior during the nestling period over three austral summer breeding seasons. High temperatures were associated with lower body mass, shorter tarsi, and reduced daily growth rates of nestlings. Our piecewise structural equation models suggested that direct impacts of temperature had the strongest influence on nestling size and daily growth rates for both 5-day-old and 11-day-old nestlings, followed by temperature-related adjustments to provisioning rates by adults. Rainfall and group size influenced the behavior of provisioning adults but did not influence nestling growth or survival. Adjustments to adult provisioning strategies did not compensate for direct negative effects of high air temperatures on nestling size or daily growth rates. Detailed mechanistic data like these allow us to model the pathways by which high temperature causes nest failure. In turn, this could allow us to design targeted conservation action to effectively mitigate climate effects.

Flexible breeding performance under unstable climatic conditions in a tropical passerine in Southwest China

Parents may adjust their breeding time to optimize reproductive output and reduce reproductive costs associated with unpredictable climatic conditions, especially in the context of global warming. The breeding performance of tropical bird species in response to local climate change is relatively understudied compared with that of temperate bird species. Here, based on data from 361 white-rumped munia (Lonchura striata) nests, we determined that breeding season onset, which varied from 15 February to 22 June, was delayed by drought and high temperatures. Clutch size (4.52±0.75) and daily survival rate but not egg mass (0.95±0.10 g) were negatively affected by frequent rainfall. Daily nest survival during the rainy breeding season in 2018 (0.95±0.04) was lower than that in 2017 (0.98±0.01) and 2019 (0.97±0.00). The overall nesting cycle was 40.37±2.69 days, including an incubation period of 13.10±1.18 days and nestling period of 23.22±2.40 days. The nestling period in 2018 (25.11±1.97 days) was longer than that in 2017 (22.90±2.22 days) and 2019 (22.00±2.48 days), possibly due to the cooler temperatures. Climate also affected the total number of successful fledglings, which was highest under moderate rainfall in 2017 (115 fledglings) and lowest during prolonged drought in 2019 (51 fledglings). Together, our results suggest that drought and frequent rainfall during the breeding season can decrease reproductive success. Thus, this study provides important insights into bird ecology and conservation in the context of global climate change.

Too hot to handle? Behavioural plasticity during incubation in a small, Australian passerine

Global warming and intensifying extreme heat events may affect avian reproductive success and costs, particularly in hot, arid environments. It is unclear how breeding birds alter their behaviour in response to rapid climate change, and whether such plasticity will be sufficient to offset rising temperatures. We examine whether a small, open-cup nesting, passerine - the Jacky Winter Microeca fascinans - in semi-arid Australia, exhibits similar levels of behavioural plasticity when incubating under high temperatures as low, and how heat impacts upon parental effort, body mass change and reproductive success. At high temperatures, female effort increased. Females doubled nest attendance between 28 °C and 40 °C, switching from incubating to shading eggs at approx. 30 °C. Egg-shading females panted to avoid hyperthermia. Panting increased with temperature and sun exposure. Male breeding effort was linked to temperature extremes. In cold conditions, males provisioned their mates heavily, buffering females from additional energetic costs, and males suffered a loss of body mass. In extreme heat, males helped shade eggs (although they never incubated). The likelihood of male egg-shading increased with temperature, but level of contribution was positively related to sun exposure. Hatching success declined with air temperatures >35 °C. Egg mortality reached 100 at air temperatures >42.5 °C. Parents continued to attend unviable eggs (for up to two weeks), suggesting egg-loss from heat exposure is a recent phenomenon. Although pairs exhibited considerable behavioural plasticity - including positioning nests to maximize afternoon shade - this was insufficient to counter extreme temperatures. In 2019, one hot day (45 °C) effectively terminated reproduction two months early, and was associated with a 50% decrease in reproductive success. The increasing frequency, intensity and earlier arrival of extreme heat events is likely to pose a major threat to avifauna populations in hot, arid environments, due to increased parental costs, reduced reproductive success and direct mortality.

Dehydration risk is associated with reduced nest attendance and hatching success in a cooperatively breeding bird, the southern pied babbler Turdoides bicolor

High air temperatures have measurable negative impacts on reproduction in wild animal populations, including during incubation in birds. Understanding the mechanisms driving these impacts requires comprehensive knowledge of animal physiology and behaviour under natural conditions. We used a novel combination of a non-invasive doubly labelled water (DLW) technique, nest temperature data and field-based behaviour observations to test effects of temperature, rainfall and group size on physiology and behaviour during incubation in southern pied babblers Turdoides bicolor, a cooperatively breeding passerine endemic to the arid savanna regions of southern Africa. The proportion of time that clutches were incubated declined as air temperatures increased, a behavioural pattern traditionally interpreted as a benefit of ambient incubation. However, we show that (i) clutches had a <50% chance of hatching when exposed to daily maximum air temperatures of >35.3°C; (ii) pied babbler groups incubated their nests almost constantly (99% of daylight hours) except on hot days; (iii) operative temperatures in unattended nests frequently exceeded 40.5°C, above which bird embryos are at risk of death; (iv) pied babblers incubating for long periods of time failed to maintain water balance on hot days; and (v) pied babblers from incubating groups lost mass on hot days. These results suggest that pied babblers might leave their nests during hot periods to lower the risk of dehydration associated with prolonged incubation at high operative temperatures. As mean air temperatures increase and extreme heat events become more frequent under climate change, birds will likely incur ever greater thermoregulatory costs of incubation, leading to compromised nest attendance and increased potential for eggs to overheat, with implications for nest success and, ultimately, population persistence.

Water deprivation compromises maternal physiology and reproductive success in a cold and wet adapted snake Vipera berus

Droughts are becoming more intense and frequent with climate change. These extreme weather events can lead to mass mortality and reproduction failure, and therefore cause population declines. Understanding how the reproductive physiology of organisms is affected by water shortages will help clarify whether females can adjust their reproductive strategy to dry conditions or may fail to reproduce and survive. In this study, we investigated the consequences of a short period of water deprivation (2 weeks) during early pregnancy on the physiology and behaviour of a cold- and wet-adapted ectotherm (Vipera berus). We also examined water allocation to developing embryos and embryonic survival. Water-deprived females exhibited significant dehydration, physiological stress and loss of muscle mass. These effects of water deprivation on water balance and muscle loss were correlated with the number of developing embryos. While water-deprived females maintained water transfer to embryos at the expense of their own maintenance, water deprivation also led to embryonic mortality. Overall, water deprivation amplifies the reproductive costs of water allocation to support embryonic development. The deleterious impacts of water deprivation on female current reproductive performance and on potential survival and future reproduction could lead to severe population declines in this species.

Not Singing in the Rain: Linking Migratory Songbird Declines With Increasing Precipitation and Brood Parasitism Vulnerability

Few empirical studies have quantified relationships between changing weather and migratory songbirds, but such studies are vital in a time of rapid climate change. Climate change has critical consequences for avian breeding ecology, geographic ranges, and migration phenology. Changing precipitation and temperature patterns affect habitat, food resources, and other aspects of birds’ life history strategies. Such changes may disproportionately affect species confined to rare or declining ecosystems, such as temperate grasslands, which are among the most altered and endangered ecosystems globally. We examined the influence of changing weather on the dickcissel (Spiza americana), a migratory songbird of conservation concern that is an obligate grassland specialist. Our study area in the North American Great Plains features high historic weather variability, where climate change is now driving higher precipitation and temperatures as well as higher frequencies of extreme weather events including flooding and droughts. Dickcissels share their breeding grounds with brown-headed cowbirds (Molothrus ater), brood parasites that lay their eggs in the nests of other songbirds, reducing dickcissel productivity. We used 9 years of capture-recapture data collected over an 18-year period to test the hypothesis that increasing precipitation on dickcissels’ riparian breeding grounds is associated with abundance declines and increasing vulnerability to cowbird parasitism. Dickcissels declined with increasing June precipitation, whereas cowbirds, by contrast, increased. Dickcissel productivity appeared to be extremely low, with a 3:1 ratio of breeding male to female dickcissels likely undermining reproductive success. Our findings suggest that increasing precipitation predicted by climate change models in this region may drive future declines of dickcissels and other songbirds. Drivers of these declines may include habitat and food resource loss related to flooding and higher frequency precipitation events as well as increased parasitism pressure by cowbirds. Positive correlations of June-July precipitation, temperature, and time since grazing with dickcissel productivity did not mitigate dickcissels’ declining trend in this ecosystem. These findings highlight the importance of empirical research on the effects of increasing precipitation and brood parasitism vulnerability on migratory songbird conservation to inform adaptive management under climate change.

Hot droughts compromise interannual survival across all group sizes in a cooperatively breeding bird

Climate change is affecting animal populations around the world and one relatively unexplored aspect of species vulnerability is whether and to what extent responses to environmental stressors might be mitigated by variation in group size in social species. We used a 15-year data set for a cooperatively breeding bird, the southern pied babbler Turdoides bicolor, to determine the impact of temperature, rainfall and group size on body mass change and interannual survival in both juveniles and adults. Hot and dry conditions were associated with reduced juvenile growth, mass loss in adults and compromised survival between years in both juveniles (86% reduction in interannual survival) and adults (60% reduction in interannual survival). Individuals across all group sizes experienced similar effects of climatic conditions. Larger group sizes may not buffer individual group members against the impacts of hot and dry conditions, which are expected to increase in frequency and severity in future.

High temperatures drive offspring mortality in a cooperatively breeding bird

An improved understanding of life-history responses to current environmental variability is required to predict species-specific responses to anthopogenic climate change. Previous research has suggested that cooperation in social groups may buffer individuals against some of the negative effects of unpredictable climates. We use a 15-year dataset on a cooperative breeding arid zone bird, the southern pied babbler Turdoides bicolor, to test (i) whether environmental conditions and group size correlate with survival of young during three development stages (egg, nestling, fledgling) and (ii) whether group size mitigates the impacts of adverse environmental conditions on survival of young. Exposure to high mean daily maximum temperatures (mean T_max) during early development was associated with reduced survival probabilities of young in all three development stages. No young survived when mean T_max > 38°C, across all group sizes. Low survival of young at high temperatures has broad implications for recruitment and population persistence in avian communities given the rapid pace of advancing climate change. Impacts of high temperatures on survival of young were not moderated by group size, suggesting that the availability of more helpers in a group is unlikely to buffer against compromised offspring survival as average and maximum temperatures increase with rapid anthropogenic climate change.

High temperatures drive offspring mortality in a cooperatively breeding bird

An improved understanding of life-history responses to current environmental variability is required to predict species-specific responses to anthopogenic climate change. Previous research has suggested that cooperation in social groups may buffer individuals against some of the negative effects of unpredictable climates. We use a 15-year dataset on a cooperative breeding arid zone bird, the southern pied babbler Turdoides bicolor, to test (i) whether environmental conditions and group size correlate with survival of young during three development stages (egg, nestling, fledgling) and (ii) whether group size mitigates the impacts of adverse environmental conditions on survival of young. Exposure to high mean daily maximum temperatures (mean T_max) during early development was associated with reduced survival probabilities of young in all three development stages. No young survived when mean T_max > 38°C, across all group sizes. Low survival of young at high temperatures has broad implications for recruitment and population persistence in avian communities given the rapid pace of advancing climate change. Impacts of high temperatures on survival of young were not moderated by group size, suggesting that the availability of more helpers in a group is unlikely to buffer against compromised offspring survival as average and maximum temperatures increase with rapid anthropogenic climate change.

Psychoactive compounds at environmental concentration alter burrowing behavior in the freshwater crayfish

Pharmaceutically active compounds (PhAC) have been increasingly detected in freshwater and marine waterbodies worldwide and are recognized as major emerging micropollutant threat to the aquatic environment. Despite their low concentrations in the environment, there is evidence of effects on non-target aquatic organisms in natural habitats. To assess the potential effects of PhACs on its burrowing behavior, we exposed the red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii to methamphetamine or tramadol at the environmentally relevant concentration of 1 μg/L. Methamphetamine-exposed females constructed burrows of lower depth and volume relative to individual weight than did controls. Tramadol-exposed females consistently exhibited a tendency for smaller burrows, but this difference was not significant. Exposed males showed a non-significant tendency to excavate larger burrows compared with the control. Control and tramadol-treated females maintained the natural tendency of constructing relatively deeper and/or larger-volume burrows compared with males. This sex-related pattern was not detected in the methamphetamine group. The rate of human therapeutic PhAC usage is relatively stable year-round, and impacts on crayfish burrowing can be particularly damaging during periods of drought, when the dilution of waste waters is reduced, and burrowing becomes a critical survival strategy. Our results suggest that an increasingly broad range of environmental impacts of PhACs on non-target organisms can be expected in natural ecosystems.

Avian mortality risk during heat waves will increase greatly in arid Australia during the 21st century

Intense heat waves are occurring more frequently, with concomitant increases in the risk of catastrophic avian mortality events via lethal dehydration or hyperthermia. We quantified the risks of lethal hyperthermia and dehydration for 10 Australian arid-zone avifauna species during the 21st century, by synthesizing thermal physiology data on evaporative water losses and heat tolerance limits. We evaluated risks of lethal hyperthermia or exceedance of dehydration tolerance limits in the absence of drinking during the hottest part of the day under recent climatic conditions, compared to those predicted for the end of this century across Australia. Increases in mortality risk via lethal dehydration and hyperthermia vary among the species modelled here but will generally increase greatly, particularly in smaller species (~10-42 g) and those inhabiting the far western parts of the continent. By 2100 CE, zebra finches' potential exposure to acute lethal dehydration risk will reach ~ 100 d y^-1 in the far northwest of Australia and will exceed 20 d y^-1 over > 50% of this species' current range. Risks of dehydration and hyperthermia will remain much lower for large non-passerines such as crested pigeons. Risks of lethal hyperthermia will also increase substantially for smaller species, particularly if they are forced to visit exposed water sources at very high air temperatures to avoid dehydration. An analysis of atlas data for zebra finches suggests that population declines associated with very hot conditions are already occurring in the hottest areas. Our findings suggest that the likelihood of persistence within current species ranges, and the potential for range shifts, will become increasingly constrained by temperature and access to drinking water. Our model adds to an increasing body of literature suggesting that arid environments globally will experience considerable losses of avifauna and biodiversity under unmitigated climate change scenarios.

Long-term phenology of two North American secondary cavity-nesters in response to changing climate conditions

Wildlife populations can respond to changes in climate conditions by either adapting or moving to areas with preferred climate regimes. We studied nesting responses of two bird species, western bluebird (Sialia mexicana) and ash-throated flycatcher (Myiarchus cinerascens), to changing climate conditions (i.e., rising temperatures and increased drought stress) over 21 years in northern New Mexico. We used data from 1649 nests to assess whether the two species responded to changing climate conditions through phenological shifts in breeding time or shifts in nesting elevation. We also examined changes in reproductive output (i.e., clutch size). Our data show that western bluebirds significantly increased nesting elevation over a 19-year period by approximately 5 m per year. Mean spring temperature was the best predictor of western bluebird nesting elevation. Higher nesting elevations were not correlated with hatch dates or clutch sizes in western bluebirds, suggesting that nesting at higher elevations does not affect breeding time or reproductive output. We did not observe significant changes in nesting elevation or breeding dates in ash-throated flycatchers. Nesting higher in elevation may allow western bluebirds to cope with the increased temperatures and droughts. However, this climate niche conservatism may pose a risk for the conservation of the species if climate change and habitat loss continue to occur. The lack of significant changes detected in nesting elevation, breeding dates, and reproductive output in ash-throated flycatchers suggests a higher tolerance for changing environmental conditions in this species. This is consistent with the population increases reported for flycatchers in areas experiencing dramatic climate changes.

Species-specific and temporal scale-dependent responses of birds to drought

Global climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of weather extremes, including severe droughts in many regions. Drought can impact organisms by inhibiting reproduction, reducing survival and abundance, and forcing range shifts. For birds, considering temporal scale by averaging drought-related variables over different time lengths (i.e., temporal grains) captures different hydrologic attributes which may uniquely influence food supplies, vegetation greenness/structure, and other factors affecting populations. However, studies examining drought impacts on birds often assess a single temporal grain without considering that different species have different life histories that likely determine the temporal grain of their drought response. Furthermore, while drought is known to influence bird abundance and drive between-year range shifts, less understood is whether it causes within-range changes in species distributions. Our objectives were to (a) determine which temporal grain of drought (if any) is most related to bird presence/absence and whether this response is species specific; and (b) assess whether drought alters bird distributions by quantifying probability of local colonization and extinction as a function of drought intensity. We used North American Breeding Bird Survey data collected over 16 years, generalized linear mixed models, and dynamic occupancy models to meet these objectives. Different bird species responded to drought at different temporal grains, with most showing the strongest signal at annual or near-annual grains. For all drought-responsive species, increased drought intensity at any temporal grain always correlated with decreased occupancy. Additionally, colonization/extinction analyses indicated that one species, the dickcissel (Spiza americana), is more likely to colonize novel areas within the southern/core portion of its range during drought. Considering drought at different temporal grains, along with hydrologic attributes captured by each grain, may better reveal mechanisms behind drought impacts on birds and other organisms, and therefore improve understanding of how global climate change impacts species and the landscapes they inhabit.

Drought leads to reproductive quiescence in smooth-billed anis: Phenotypic evidence for opportunistic breeding and reproductive readiness

Previous studies have suggested that the smooth-billed ani (Crotophaga ani, Linnaeus, 1758) breeds opportunistically following unpredictable rainfall in drought areas. To obtain proof of this phenomenon, the present study described and compared reproductive morphology and cell proliferation in the gonads of free-living smooth-billed anis during a wet season (April to June 2012) and the following dry season (July to September 2012) in a semiarid area using light and electron microscopy (transmission and scanning) and the AgNOR method. The morphological findings indicated distinct levels of reproductive activity related to seasonal changes. Morphological and morphometric analyses of the gonads confirmed intense gametogenic activity during the wet season, whereas gonadal involution occurred after rainfall ceased. The sizes of the testes and ovaries were significantly reduced compared to those in the wet season. The volumetric fraction of the seminiferous tubules in the testis decreased considerably, and no preovulatory follicles were detected in the ovary in the dry season. Moreover, the AgNOR count in the gonads revealed a significant decline in cell recruitment for gametogenesis after rainfall ceased. The histological findings indicated partial gonadal activation throughout the dry season. The analysis of the seminiferous epithelium confirmed the early testicular recrudescence phase, and sporadic postovulatory follicles indicated random ovulation during this time. The excurrent ducts and the oviduct also underwent remarkable involution in the dry season. Taken together, these findings confirm opportunistic breeding by smooth-billed anis in a semiarid habitat and suggest that gonadal recrudescence has been established as a reproductive strategy to cope with unexpected precipitation events.

Predator-mediated effects of severe drought associated with poor reproductive success of a seabird in a cross-ecosystem cascade

Despite the profound impacts of drought on terrestrial productivity in coastal arid ecosystems, only a few studies have addressed how drought can influence ecological cascades across ecosystem boundaries. In this study, we examine the consequences of rainfall pulses and drought that subsequently impact the breeding success of a threatened nocturnal seabird, the Scripps's Murrelet (Synthliboramphus scrippsi). On an island off the coast of southern California, the main cause of reduced nest success for one of their largest breeding colonies is egg predation by an endemic deer mouse (Peromyscus maniculatus elusus). Mice on the island have an opportunistic diet of primarily terrestrial sources, but drastic declines in terrestrial productivity from drought might be expected to increase their reliance on marine resources, including murrelet eggs. We compiled data on terrestrial and marine productivity between 1983 and 2013 to determine how conditions in these ecosystems influence murrelet nest success. We found that the severity of drought had the strongest negative impact on murrelet nest success. We calculated that the reduction in fecundity during drought years due to increased egg predation by mice was substantial enough to produce a declining population growth rate. Nest success was much higher under normal or high rainfall conditions, depending on whether oceanic conditions were favorable to murrelets. Therefore, the more frequent and severe drought that is projected for this region could lead to an increased risk of murrelet population decline on this island. Our study highlights the need for understanding how species interactions will change through the effects of increasing drought and altered rainfall regimes under global change.

Climate-driven declines in arthropod abundance restructure a rainforest food web

A number of studies indicate that tropical arthropods should be particularly vulnerable to climate warming. If these predictions are realized, climate warming may have a more profound impact on the functioning and diversity of tropical forests than currently anticipated. Although arthropods comprise over two-thirds of terrestrial species, information on their abundance and extinction rates in tropical habitats is severely limited. Here we analyze data on arthropod and insectivore abundances taken between 1976 and 2012 at two midelevation habitats in Puerto Rico's Luquillo rainforest. During this time, mean maximum temperatures have risen by 2.0 °C. Using the same study area and methods employed by Lister in the 1970s, we discovered that the dry weight biomass of arthropods captured in sweep samples had declined 4 to 8 times, and 30 to 60 times in sticky traps. Analysis of long-term data on canopy arthropods and walking sticks taken as part of the Luquillo Long-Term Ecological Research program revealed sustained declines in abundance over two decades, as well as negative regressions of abundance on mean maximum temperatures. We also document parallel decreases in Luquillo's insectivorous lizards, frogs, and birds. While El Niño/Southern Oscillation influences the abundance of forest arthropods, climate warming is the major driver of reductions in arthropod abundance, indirectly precipitating a bottom-up trophic cascade and consequent collapse of the forest food web.

Avian demographic responses to drought and fire: a community-level perspective

Drought stress is an important consideration for wildlife in arid and semiarid regions under climate change. Drought can impact plant and animal populations directly, through effects on their physiology, as well as indirectly through effects on vegetation productivity and resource availability, and by creating conditions conducive to secondary disturbance, such as wildfire. We implemented a novel approach to understanding community-level demographic responses of birds and their habitats to these stressors in the context of climate change at 14 study sites in the Four Corners region of the southwestern United States. A large wildfire affecting three of the sites provided a natural experiment for also examining fire effects on vegetation and the bird community. We assessed (1) trends in drought and end-of-century (2071-2100) predicted average drought conditions under mid-range and high greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios; (2) effects of drought and fire on habitat (vegetation greenness); and (3) effects of drought and fire on community-level avian productivity and adult apparent survival rates. Drought has increased and is expected to increase further at our study sites under climate change. Under spring drought conditions, vegetation greenness and avian productivity declined, while summer drought appeared to negatively affect adult apparent survival rates. Response to fire was mixed; in the year of the fire, avian productivity declined, but was higher than normal for several years post-fire. Our results highlight important links between environmental stressors and avian vital rates that will likely affect population trajectories in this region under climate change. We suggest that the use and continued development of community-level demographic models will provide useful tool for leveraging sparse species-level data to provide multi-species inferences and inform conservation.

Synergistic effect of land-use and vegetation greenness on vulture nestling body condition in arid ecosystems

Climate-driven environmental change and land-use change often interact in their impact on biodiversity, but these interactions have received little scientific attention. Here we study the effects of climate-driven environmental variation (i.e. vegetation greenness) and land-use (protected versus unprotected areas) on body condition of vulture nestlings in savannah landscapes. We combine ringing data on nestling measurements of two vultures (lappet-faced and African white-backed vulture) with land-use and environmental variables. We show that body condition of white-backed vulture nestlings decreased through the study period and was lowest inside protected areas. For the lappet-faced vulture, nestling condition was improved during harsh years with lower than average vegetation greenness assumed to result in increased ungulate mortality, but only within protected areas. Such interaction was not tested for the white-backed vulture due to collinearity. The species-specific effects of land-use and vegetation greenness on nestling condition of the two sympatric vulture species likely stem from their different life-histories, diet preferences and foraging behaviour. While translation of current findings on nestling conditions to their possible influence on population demography and species persistence require further studies, our findings demonstrate how environmental change may trigger selective bottom-up ecosystem responses in arid environments under global change.

Collapse of a desert bird community over the past century driven by climate change

Deserts, already defined by climatic extremes, have warmed and dried more than other regions in the contiguous United States due to climate change. Our resurveys of sites originally visited in the early 20th century found Mojave Desert birds strongly declined in occupancy and sites lost nearly half of their species. Declines were associated with climate change, particularly decreased precipitation. The magnitude of the decline in the avian community and the absence of species that were local climatological “winners” are exceptional. Our results provide evidence that bird communities in the Mojave Desert have collapsed to a new, lower baseline. Declines could accelerate with future climate change, as this region is predicted to become drier and hotter by the end of the century.

Climate change has caused deserts, already defined by climatic extremes, to warm and dry more rapidly than other ecoregions in the contiguous United States over the last 50 years. Desert birds persist near the edge of their physiological limits, and climate change could cause lethal dehydration and hyperthermia, leading to decline or extirpation of some species. We evaluated how desert birds have responded to climate and habitat change by resurveying historic sites throughout the Mojave Desert that were originally surveyed for avian diversity during the early 20th century by Joseph Grinnell and colleagues. We found strong evidence of an avian community in collapse. Sites lost on average 43% of their species, and occupancy probability declined significantly for 39 of 135 breeding birds. The common raven was the only native species to substantially increase across survey sites. Climate change, particularly decline in precipitation, was the most important driver of site-level persistence, while habitat change had a secondary influence. Habitat preference and diet were the two most important species traits associated with occupancy change. The presence of surface water reduced the loss of site-level richness, creating refugia. The collapse of the avian community over the past century may indicate a larger imbalance in the Mojave and provide an early warning of future ecosystem disintegration, given climate models unanimously predict an increasingly dry and hot future.

Avian thermoregulation in the heat: metabolism, evaporative cooling and gular flutter in two small owls

The thermoregulatory responses of owls to heat stress have been the subject of few studies. Although nocturnality buffers desert-dwelling owls from significant heat stress during activity, roost sites in tree and cactus cavities or in deep shade provide only limited refuge from high environmental temperatures during the day. We measured thermoregulatory responses to acute heat stress in two species of small owls, the elf owl (Micrathene whitneyi) and the western screech-owl (Megascops kennicottii), which occupy the Sonoran Desert of southwestern North America, an area of extreme heat and aridity. We exposed wild-caught birds to progressively increasing air temperatures (Ta) and measured resting metabolic rate (RMR), evaporative water loss (EWL), body temperature (Tb) and heat tolerance limits (HTL; the maximum Ta reached). Comparatively low RMR values were observed in both species, Tb approximated Ta at 40°C and mild hyperthermia occurred as Ta was increased toward the HTL. Elf owls and screech-owls reached HTLs of 48 and 52°C, respectively, and RMR increased to 1.5 and 1.9 times thermoneutral values. Rates of EWL at the HTL allowed for the dissipation of 167–198% of metabolic heat production (MHP). Gular flutter was used as the primary means of evaporative heat dissipation and produced large increases in evaporative heat loss (44–100%), accompanied by only small increases (&lt;5%) in RMR. These small, cavity-nesting owls have thermoregulatory capacities that are intermediate between those of the open-ground nesting nightjars and the passerines that occupy the same ecosystem.

Synchronizing biological cycles as key to survival under a scenario of global change: The Common quail (Coturnix coturnix) strategy

Breeding grounds are key areas for sustaining Common quail (Coturnix coturnix) populations as this species is characterised by short life expectancy that requires high offspring production. Annually, breeding quails make up to three breeding attempts in different places. However, the impact of climate warming on quail phenology is unknown. Here, we use a long-term study (1961-2014) of quail-ringing in Spain and data on variation in rainfall and temperature over the past 86years to evaluate how quails have responded to climate change in recent years. Our aim was to understand how this species is adapting to new farming practices and climate change. Our results suggest that increases in temperature and decreases in precipitation modify quail phenology. In hot years, an advance in mean arrival dates and stay stages but a delay in departure dates was found. However, in rainy years a delay in the mean start of the stay stage occurred. In cloudy areas, our findings show that quails advance their stay periods in hot and dry years and delay them in cold and rainy years. Accordingly, quail movements and breeding attempts are eco-synchronized sequentially in cloudy regions. Our results suggest that quails attempt to overcome the negative impacts of climate change and agricultural intensification by searching for alternative high-quality habitats. This strategy could explain how quail populations maintain viable and sustainable populations despite being legally harvested with regulated hunting.

Long-term changes in abundances of Sonoran Desert lizards reveal complex responses to climatic variation

Understanding how climatic variation affects animal populations and communities is essential for addressing threats posed by climate change, especially in systems where impacts are projected to be high. We evaluated abundance dynamics of five common species of diurnal lizards over 25 years in a Sonoran Desert transition zone where precipitation decreased and temperature increased across time, and assessed hypotheses for the influence of climatic flux on spatiotemporal variation in abundances. We repeatedly surveyed lizards in spring and summer of each year at up to 32 sites, and used hierarchical mixture models to estimate detection probabilities, abundances, and population growth rates. Among terrestrial species, abundances of a short-lived, winter-spring breeder increased markedly by an estimated 237%-285% across time, while two larger spring-summer breeders with higher thermal preferences declined by up to 64%. Abundances of two arboreal species that occupy shaded and thus sheltered microhabitats fluctuated but did not decline systematically. Abundances of all species increased with precipitation at short lag times (1-1.5 years) likely due to enhanced food availability, but often declined after periods of high precipitation at longer lag times (2-4 years) likely due to predation and other biotic pressures. Although rising maximum daily temperatures (T_max ) are expected to drive global declines of lizards, associations with T_max were variable and weak for most species. Instead, abundances of all species declined with rising daily minimum temperatures, suggesting degradation of cool refugia imposed widespread metabolic or other costs. Our results suggest climate warming and drying are having major impacts on lizard communities by driving declines in species with traits that augment exposure to abiotic extremes and by modifying species interactions. The complexity of patterns we report indicates that evaluating and responding to the influence of climate change on biodiversity must consider a broad array of ecological processes.

Model uncertainties do not affect observed patterns of species richness in the Amazon

BACKGROUND

Climate change is arguably a major threat to biodiversity conservation and there are several methods to assess its impacts on species potential distribution. Yet the extent to which different approaches on species distribution modeling affect species richness patterns at biogeographical scale is however unaddressed in literature. In this paper, we verified if the expected responses to climate change in biogeographical scale-patterns of species richness and species vulnerability to climate change-are affected by the inputs used to model and project species distribution.

METHODS

We modeled the distribution of 288 vertebrate species (amphibians, birds and mammals), all endemic to the Amazon basin, using different combinations of the following inputs known to affect the outcome of species distribution models (SDMs): 1) biological data type, 2) modeling methods, 3) greenhouse gas emission scenarios and 4) climate forecasts. We calculated uncertainty with a hierarchical ANOVA in which those different inputs were considered factors.

RESULTS

The greatest source of variation was the modeling method. Model performance interacted with data type and modeling method. Absolute values of variation on suitable climate area were not equal among predictions, but some biological patterns were still consistent. All models predicted losses on the area that is climatically suitable for species, especially for amphibians and primates. All models also indicated a current East-western gradient on endemic species richness, from the Andes foot downstream the Amazon river. Again, all models predicted future movements of species upwards the Andes mountains and overall species richness losses.

CONCLUSIONS

From a methodological perspective, our work highlights that SDMs are a useful tool for assessing impacts of climate change on biodiversity. Uncertainty exists but biological patterns are still evident at large spatial scales. As modeling methods are the greatest source of variation, choosing the appropriate statistics according to the study objective is also essential for estimating the impacts of climate change on species distribution. Yet from a conservation perspective, we show that Amazon endemic fauna is potentially vulnerable to climate change, due to expected reductions on suitable climate area. Climate-driven faunal movements are predicted towards the Andes mountains, which might work as climate refugia for migrating species.

Breeding decisions and output are correlated with both temperature and rainfall in an arid-region passerine, the sociable weaver

Animal reproductive cycles are commonly triggered by environmental cues of favourable breeding conditions. In arid environments, rainfall may be the most conspicuous cue, but the effects on reproduction of the high inter- and intra-annual variation in temperature remain poorly understood, despite being relevant to the current context of global warming. Here, we conducted a multiyear examination of the relationships between a suite of measures of temperature and rainfall, and the onset and length of the breeding season, the probability of breeding and reproductive output in an arid-region passerine, the sociable weaver (Philetairus socius). As expected, reproductive output increased with rainfall, yet specific relationships were conditional on the timing of rainfall: clutch production was correlated with rainfall throughout the season, whereas fledgling production was correlated with early summer rainfall. Moreover, we reveal novel correlations between aspects of breeding and temperature, indicative of earlier laying dates after warmer springs, and longer breeding seasons during cooler summers. These results have implications for understanding population trends under current climate change scenarios and call for more studies on the role of temperature in reproduction beyond those conducted on temperate-region species.

Extreme climatic events constrain space use and survival of a ground-nesting bird

Two fundamental issues in ecology are understanding what influences the distribution and abundance of organisms through space and time. While it is well established that broad-scale patterns of abiotic and biotic conditions affect organisms' distributions and population fluctuations, discrete events may be important drivers of space use, survival, and persistence. These discrete extreme climatic events can constrain populations and space use at fine scales beyond that which is typically measured in ecological studies. Recently, a growing body of literature has identified thermal stress as a potential mechanism in determining space use and survival. We sought to determine how ambient temperature at fine temporal scales affected survival and space use for a ground-nesting quail species (Colinus virginianus; northern bobwhite). We modeled space use across an ambient temperature gradient (ranging from -20 to 38 °C) through a maxent algorithm. We also used Andersen-Gill proportional hazard models to assess the influence of ambient temperature-related variables on survival through time. Estimated available useable space ranged from 18.6% to 57.1% of the landscape depending on ambient temperature. The lowest and highest ambient temperature categories (<-15 °C and >35 °C, respectively) were associated with the least amount of estimated useable space (18.6% and 24.6%, respectively). Range overlap analysis indicated dissimilarity in areas where Colinus virginianus were restricted during times of thermal extremes (range overlap = 0.38). This suggests that habitat under a given condition is not necessarily a habitat under alternative conditions. Further, we found survival was most influenced by weekly minimum ambient temperatures. Our results demonstrate that ecological constraints can occur along a thermal gradient and that understanding the effects of these discrete events and how they change over time may be more important to conservation of organisms than are average and broad-scale conditions as typically measured in ecological studies.

Mapping evaporative water loss in desert passerines reveals an expanding threat of lethal dehydration

Extreme high environmental temperatures produce a variety of consequences for wildlife, including mass die-offs. Heat waves are increasing in frequency, intensity, and extent, and are projected to increase further under climate change. However, the spatial and temporal dynamics of die-off risk are poorly understood. Here, we examine the effects of heat waves on evaporative water loss (EWL) and survival in five desert passerine birds across the southwestern United States using a combination of physiological data, mechanistically informed models, and hourly geospatial temperature data. We ask how rates of EWL vary with temperature across species; how frequently, over what areas, and how rapidly lethal dehydration occurs; how EWL and die-off risk vary with body mass; and how die-off risk is affected by climate warming. We find that smaller-bodied passerines are subject to higher rates of mass-specific EWL than larger-bodied counterparts and thus encounter potentially lethal conditions much more frequently, over shorter daily intervals, and over larger geographic areas. Warming by 4 °C greatly expands the extent, frequency, and intensity of dehydration risk, and introduces new threats for larger passerine birds, particularly those with limited geographic ranges. Our models reveal that increasing air temperatures and heat wave occurrence will potentially have important impacts on the water balance, daily activity, and geographic distribution of arid-zone birds. Impacts may be exacerbated by chronic effects and interactions with other environmental changes. This work underscores the importance of acute risks of high temperatures, particularly for small-bodied species, and suggests conservation of thermal refugia and water sources.

Assessing Mammal Exposure to Climate Change in the Brazilian Amazon

Human-induced climate change is considered a conspicuous threat to biodiversity in the 21^st century. Species’ response to climate change depends on their exposition, sensitivity and ability to adapt to novel climates. Exposure to climate change is however uneven within species’ range, so that some populations may be more at risk than others. Identifying the regions most exposed to climate change is therefore a first and pivotal step on determining species’ vulnerability across their geographic ranges. Here, we aimed at quantifying mammal local exposure to climate change across species’ ranges. We identified areas in the Brazilian Amazon where mammals will be critically exposed to non-analogue climates in the future with different variables predicted by 15 global circulation climate forecasts. We also built a null model to assess the effectiveness of the Amazon protected areas in buffering the effects of climate change on mammals, using an innovative and more realistic approach. We found that 85% of species are likely to be exposed to non-analogue climatic conditions in more than 80% of their ranges by 2070. That percentage is even higher for endemic mammals; almost all endemic species are predicted to be exposed in more than 80% of their range. Exposure patterns also varied with different climatic variables and seem to be geographically structured. Western and northern Amazon species are more likely to experience temperature anomalies while northeastern species will be more affected by rainfall abnormality. We also observed an increase in the number of critically-exposed species from 2050 to 2070. Overall, our results indicate that mammals might face high exposure to climate change and that protected areas will probably not be efficient enough to avert those impacts.