The relevance of food peak architecture in trophic interactions

Duration and variability of spring green-up mediate population consequences of climate change

Single phenological measures, like the average rate of phenological advancement, may be insufficient to explain how climate change is driving trends in animal populations. Here, we develop a multifactorial concept of spring phenology-including the onset of spring, spring duration, interannual variability, and their temporal changes-as a driver for population dynamics of migratory terrestrial species in seasonal environments. Using this conceptual model, we found that effects of advancing spring phenology on animal populations may be buffered or amplified depending on the duration and interannual variability of spring green-up, and those effects are modified by evolutionary and plastic adaptations of species. Furthermore, we compared our modelling results with empirical data on normalized difference vegetation index-based spring green-up phenology and population trends of 106 European landbird finding similar associations. We conclude how phenological changes are expected to affect migratory bird populations across Europe and identify regions that are particularly prone to suffer population declines.

Prehatching temperatures drive inter-annual cohort differences in great tit metabolism

Basal metabolic rate (BMR) constitutes the lowest metabolic rate in a resting animal and is, therefore, considered to reflect the energetic cost of maintenance in endotherms. BMR is a reversible plastic trait that changes with environmental and ecological circumstances, albeit being heritable and susceptible to selection. Inter-individual variation within populations of small birds is substantial, and while many of the drivers of such variation have been identified, many remain unexplained. We studied winter BMR variation of juveniles over a 15-year period in a wild population of great tits Parus major at the northern border of their distribution. BMR during winter consistently changed between years, even after controlling for environmental factors, suggestive of a non-reversible developmental plasticity shaping the adult metabolic phenotype. BMR in cohorts of wintering great tits varied among winters as a response to minimum ambient temperatures experienced early in life, during the prehatching period. This developmental plasticity might be adaptive if temperatures experienced by growing embryos would metabolically prime them to an environment that they will likely encounter in future life. However, in line with a more unpredictable future climate, the risk of phenotype-environment mismatch is likely to lead to certain cohorts being poorly adapted to prevailing winter conditions, resulting in wider annual fluctuations in population size.

Mismatch-induced growth reductions in a clade of Arctic-breeding shorebirds are rarely mitigated by increasing temperatures

In seasonal environments subject to climate change, organisms typically show phenological changes. As these changes are usually stronger in organisms at lower trophic levels than those at higher trophic levels, mismatches between consumers and their prey may occur during the consumers' reproduction period. While in some species a trophic mismatch induces reductions in offspring growth, this is not always the case. This variation may be caused by the relative strength of the mismatch, or by mitigating factors like increased temperature-reducing energetic costs. We investigated the response of chick growth rate to arthropod abundance and temperature for six populations of ecologically similar shorebirds breeding in the Arctic and sub-Arctic (four subspecies of Red Knot Calidris canutus, Great Knot C. tenuirostris and Surfbird C. virgata). In general, chicks experienced growth benefits (measured as a condition index) when hatching before the seasonal peak in arthropod abundance, and growth reductions when hatching after the peak. The moment in the season at which growth reductions occurred varied between populations, likely depending on whether food was limiting growth before or after the peak. Higher temperatures led to faster growth on average, but could only compensate for increasing trophic mismatch for the population experiencing the coldest conditions. We did not find changes in the timing of peaks in arthropod availability across the study years, possibly because our series of observations was relatively short; timing of hatching displayed no change over the years either. Our results suggest that a trend in trophic mismatches may not yet be evident; however, we show Arctic-breeding shorebirds to be vulnerable to this phenomenon and vulnerability to depend on seasonal prey dynamics.

Exploring the drivers of variation in trophic mismatches: A systematic review of long-term avian studies

Many organisms reproduce in seasonal environments, where selection on timing of reproduction is particularly strong as consumers need to synchronize reproduction with the peaked occurrence of their food. When a consumer species changes its phenology at a slower rate than its resources, this may induce a trophic mismatch, that is, offspring growing up after the peak in food availability, potentially leading to reductions in growth and survival. However, there is large variation in the degree of trophic mismatches as well as in its effects on reproductive output.Here, we explore the potential causes for variation in the strength of trophic mismatches in published studies of birds. Specifically, we ask whether the changes in the degree of mismatch that have occurred over time can be explained by a bird's (a) breeding latitude, (b) migration distance, and/or (c) life-history traits.We found that none of these three factors explain changes in the degree of mismatch over time. Nevertheless, food phenology did advance faster at more northerly latitudes, while shifts in bird phenology did not show a trend with latitude.We argue that the lack of support in our results is attributable to the large variation in the metrics used to describe timing of food availability. We propose a pathway to improve the quantification of trophic mismatches, guided by a more rigorous understanding of links between consumers and their resources.

Predicting the vulnerability of birds to trophic threat posed by phenological mismatch based on nutritional and physiological status of nestlings

Climate change induced phenological mismatches between nestlings and their optimal food resources have been found to negatively influence the survival of many bird species. Discriminating which species is vulnerable to such threat is difficult only based on the diet observation, and therefore it is necessary to establish a more reliable method to predict the vulnerability of bird species. In the case of Asian short-toed lark (Calandrella cheleensis), we predicted such vulnerability by evaluating whether nestlings can absorb equal level of nutrients from different diets and maintain equal physiological status. We compared the diet, plasma nutrients, plasma insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1), body mass and survival rate of nestlings hatched under different optimal food (grasshopper nymph) abundance conditions in two breeding seasons. Plasma glucides, amino acids, tricarboxylic acid (TCA) cycle metabolites, some fatty acids, IGF-1, body mass and survival rate of the nestlings hatched under medium or low nymph abundance conditions were significantly lower than those of nestlings hatched under high nymph abundance condition. The relative abundance of plasma amino acids, glucides, TCA cycle metabolites and fatty acids were significantly, and positively, correlated with IGF-1 levels, which, in turn, was positively correlated with nestling body mass. These results indicate that the diet with low optimal food proportion was nutritionally inferior to the diet with high optimal food proportion and inhibited the growth of nestlings. Species like Asian short-toed lark is vulnerable to the trophic threat induced by phenological mismatch because the alternative food is insufficient to satisfy the nutritional requirement of nestlings.

Mismatches between breeding phenology and resource abundance of resident alpine ptarmigan negatively affect chick survival

Phenological mismatches-defined here as the difference in reproductive timing of an individual relative to the availability of its food resources-occur in many avian species. Mistiming breeding activities in environments with constrained breeding windows may have severe fitness costs due to reduced opportunities for repeated breeding attempts. Therefore, species occurring in alpine environments may be particularly vulnerable.We studied fitness consequences of timing of breeding in an alpine-endemic species, the white-tailed ptarmigan (Lagopus leucura), to investigate its influence on chick survival. We estimated phenological mismatch by measuring plant and arthropods used by ptarmigan in relation to their timing of breeding.We monitored 120 nests and 67 broods over a three-year period (2013-2015) at three alpine study sites in the Rocky Mountains of Colorado. During this same period, we actively monitored food resource abundance in brood-use areas to develop year and site-specific resource phenology curves. We developed several mismatch indices from these curves that were then fit as covariates in mark-recapture chick survival models.A correlation analysis between seasonal changes in arthropod and food plant abundance indicated that a normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) was likely the best predictor for food available to hens and chicks. A survival model that included an interaction between NDVI mismatch and chick age received strong support and indicated young chicks were more susceptible to mismatch than older chicks.We provide evidence that individual females of a resident alpine species can be negatively affected by phenological mismatch. Our study focused on individual females and did not examine if phenological mismatch was present at the population level. Future work in animal populations occurring in mountain systems focusing on a combination of both individual- and population-level metrics of mismatch will be beneficial.

Phenological mismatch in Arctic-breeding shorebirds: Impact of snowmelt and unpredictable weather conditions on food availability and chick growth

The ecological consequences of climate change have been recognized in numerous species, with perhaps phenology being the most well-documented change. Phenological changes may have negative consequences when organisms within different trophic levels respond to environmental changes at different rates, potentially leading to phenological mismatches between predators and their prey. This may be especially apparent in the Arctic, which has been affected more by climate change than other regions, resulting in earlier, warmer, and longer summers. During a 7-year study near Utqiaġvik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, we estimated phenological mismatch in relation to food availability and chick growth in a community of Arctic-breeding shorebirds experiencing advancement of environmental conditions (i.e., snowmelt). Our results indicate that Arctic-breeding shorebirds have experienced increased phenological mismatch with earlier snowmelt conditions. However, the degree of phenological mismatch was not a good predictor of food availability, as weather conditions after snowmelt made invertebrate availability highly unpredictable. As a result, the food available to shorebird chicks that were 2-10 days old was highly variable among years (ranging from 6.2 to 28.8 mg trap-1 day-1 among years in eight species), and was often inadequate for average growth (only 20%-54% of Dunlin and Pectoral Sandpiper broods on average had adequate food across a 4-year period). Although weather conditions vary among years, shorebirds that nested earlier in relation to snowmelt generally had more food available during brood rearing, and thus, greater chick growth rates. Despite the strong selective pressure to nest early, advancement of nesting is likely limited by the amount of plasticity in the start and progression of migration. Therefore, long-term climatic changes resulting in earlier snowmelt have the potential to greatly affect shorebird populations, especially if shorebirds are unable to advance nest initiation sufficiently to keep pace with seasonal advancement of their invertebrate prey.

From feces to data: A metabarcoding method for analyzing consumed and available prey in a bird-insect food web

Diets play a key role in understanding trophic interactions. Knowing the actual structure of food webs contributes greatly to our understanding of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. The research of prey preferences of different predators requires knowledge not only of the prey consumed, but also of what is available. In this study, we applied DNA metabarcoding to analyze the diet of 4 bird species (willow tits Poecile montanus, Siberian tits Poecile cinctus, great tits Parus major and blue tits Cyanistes caeruleus) by using the feces of nestlings. The availability of their assumed prey (Lepidoptera) was determined from feces of larvae (frass) collected from the main foraging habitat, birch (Betula spp.) canopy. We identified 53 prey species from the nestling feces, of which 11 (21%) were also detected from the frass samples (eight lepidopterans). Approximately 80% of identified prey species in the nestling feces represented lepidopterans, which is in line with the earlier studies on the parids' diet. A subsequent laboratory experiment showed a threshold for fecal sample size and the barcoding success, suggesting that the smallest frass samples do not contain enough larval DNA to be detected by high-throughput sequencing. To summarize, we apply metabarcoding for the first time in a combined approach to identify available prey (through frass) and consumed prey (via nestling feces), expanding the scope and precision for future dietary studies on insectivorous birds.

Different Ultimate Factors Define Timing of Breeding in Two Related Species

Correct reproductive timing is crucial for fitness. Breeding phenology even in similar species can differ due to different selective pressures on the timing of reproduction. These selection pressures define species' responses to warming springs. The temporal match-mismatch hypothesis suggests that timing of breeding in animals is selected to match with food availability (synchrony). Alternatively, time-dependent breeding success (the date hypothesis) can result from other seasonally deteriorating ecological conditions such as intra- or interspecific competition or predation. We studied the effects of two ultimate factors on the timing of breeding, synchrony and other time-dependent factors (time-dependence), in sympatric populations of two related forest-dwelling passerine species, the great tit (Parus major) and the willow tit (Poecile montanus) by modelling recruitment with long-term capture-recapture data. We hypothesized that these two factors have different relevance for fitness in these species. We found that local recruitment in both species showed quadratic relationships with both time-dependence and synchrony. However, the importance of these factors was markedly different between the studied species. Caterpillar food played a predominant role in predicting the timing of breeding of the great tit. In contrast, for the willow tit time-dependence modelled as timing in relation to conspecifics was more important for local recruitment than synchrony. High caterpillar biomass experienced during the pre- and post-fledging periods increased local recruitment of both species. These contrasting results confirm that these species experience different selective pressures upon the timing of breeding, and hence responses to climate change may differ. Detailed information about life-history strategies is required to understand the effects of climate change, even in closely related taxa. The temporal match-mismatch hypothesis should be extended to consider subsequent critical periods when food needs to be abundantly available.