Multiple stressors, nonlinear effects and the implications of climate change impacts on marine coastal ecosystems

Climate mediates the predictability of threats to marine biodiversity

Anthropogenic climate change is driving rapid changes in marine ecosystems across the global ocean. The spatiotemporal footprints of other anthropogenic threats, such as infrastructure development, shipping, and fisheries, will also inevitably shift under climate change, but we find that these shifts are not yet accounted for in most projections of climate futures in marine systems. We summarise what is known about threat-shifting in response to climate change, and identify sources of predictability that have implications for ecological forecasting. We recommend that, where possible, the dynamics of anthropogenic threats are accounted for in nowcasts, forecasts, and projections designed for spatial management and conservation planning, and highlight key themes for future research into threat dynamics in a changing ocean.

The effects of imidacloprid and polyester microfibers on the larval development of the endangered sunflower star

Sea star wasting syndrome has affected numerous species of sea star, with populations of Pycnopodia helianthoides (Brandt, 1835) left most at risk. As their populations are struggling to recover, it is important to gain a better understanding of the impacts that the multiple stressors in their habitats can have on their populations. Contaminant stressors in particular are of increasing importance, because aquatic organisms can be exposed to a dynamic range of contaminants from nearby anthropogenic activity that may affect their future recovery efforts. This study is the first to quantify the effects of contaminant stressors on the larvae of P. helianthoides. We exposed P. helianthoides larvae to the neonicotinoid insecticide imidacloprid and polyester microfibers, both individually and in combination, at environmentally relevant concentrations (10 ng/L and 25 fibers/L, respectively) to measure the effects of these contaminants on their early life stages. Imidacloprid exposure resulted in stomach malformation in 10% of larvae and increased mortality during early development (p < 0.001), and all treatments resulted in increased larval lengths relative to controls (p < 0.001). During settlement, imidacloprid resulted in more rapid settlement responses than in the controls (p < 0.01). These findings highlight the need for further research investigating the effects of contaminant stressors to endangered organisms during reintroduction as well as a more comprehensive understanding of the effects of pesticides to nontarget organisms.

Towards ecosystem-based techniques for tipping point detection

An ecosystem shifts to an alternative stable state when a threshold of accumulated pressure (i.e. direct impact of environmental change or human activities) is exceeded. Detecting this threshold in empirical data remains a challenge because ecosystems are governed by complex interlinkages and feedback loops between their components and pressures. In addition, multiple feedback mechanisms exist that can make an ecosystem resilient to state shifts. Therefore, unless a broad ecological perspective is used to detect state shifts, it remains questionable to what extent current detection methods really capture ecosystem state shifts and whether inferences made from smaller scale analyses can be implemented into ecosystem management. We reviewed the techniques currently used for retrospective detection of state shifts detection from empirical data. We show that most techniques are not suitable for taking a broad ecosystem perspective because approximately 85% do not combine intervariable non-linear relationships and high-dimensional data from multiple ecosystem variables, but rather tend to focus on one subsystem of the ecosystem. Thus, our perception of state shifts may be limited by methods that are often used on smaller data sets, unrepresentative of whole ecosystems. By reviewing the characteristics, advantages, and limitations of the current techniques, we identify methods that provide the potential to incorporate a broad ecosystem-based approach. We therefore provide perspectives into developing techniques better suited for detecting ecosystem state shifts that incorporate intervariable interactions and high-dimensionality data.

Exploring technical improvements for environmental nucleic acids-based biodiversity assessment and management in coastal ecosystems

Assessing and conserving marine biodiversity remain critical global challenges, particularly in highly disturbed coastal regions. The use of environmental DNA (eDNA)-metabarcoding has revolutionized biodiversity assessment and management; however, the prevalence of both false positives and negatives continues to be a significant concern. To address these technical errors, we tested two potential methodological improvements in the highly disturbed Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area: (1) the use of random whole-genome amplification (WGA) to reduce false negatives derived from low eDNA concentration, and (2) the application of environmental RNA (eRNA)-metabarcoding to mitigate false positives arising from eDNA contamination by human activities. Using fish communities as our target, we found that WGA enhanced downstream PCR amplification for metabarcoding but significantly reduced the detection of rare taxa, altered community structure, and increased false negatives (p < 0.001 for all tests). Interestingly, WGA led to higher levels of false negatives in more biodiverse communities. eDNA-metabarcoding revealed that 20.9%-23.6% of detected taxa were pure freshwater species (false positives) incapable of surviving in estuarine and coastal regions, highlighting the often-overlooked eDNA contamination in disturbed coastal ecosystems. In contrast, eRNA-metabarcoding significantly reduced false positives (p < 0.001), with error taxa accounting for only 2.5%-6.3% of all detections. Comparisons between eDNA and eRNA metabarcoding further revealed differences in their rare taxa recovery capacity. The findings provide critical insights into method selection for biodiversity assessment and management in highly disturbed coastal regions and highlight the need for further technical improvement of eDNA and eRNA-based biodiversity monitoring and conservation in aquatic ecosystems.

Drivers of spatiotemporal variability in a marine foundation species

Marine foundation species are critical for the structure and functioning of ecosystems and constitute the pillar of trophic chains while also providing a variety of ecosystem services. In recent decades, many foundation species have declined in abundance, sometimes threatening their current geographical distribution. Kelps (Laminariales) are the primary foundation species in temperate coastal systems worldwide. Kelp ecosystems are notoriously variable, challenging the identification of key factors controlling their dynamics. Identification of these drivers is key to predicting the fate of kelp ecosystems under climatic change and to informing management and conservation decisions such as restoration. Here, we used in situ data from long-term monitoring programs across 1350 km of coast spanning multiple biogeographic regions in the state of California (USA) to identify the major regional drivers of density of two dominant canopy-forming kelp species and to elucidate the spatial and temporal scales over which they operate. We used generalized additive mixed models to identify the key drivers of density of two dominant kelp species (Nereocystis luetkeana and Macrocystis pyrifera) across four ecological regions of the state of California (north, central, southwest, and southeast) and for the past two decades (2004-2021). The dominant drivers of kelp density varied among regions and species but always included some combination of nitrate availability, wave energy and exposure, density of purple sea urchins, and temperature as the most important predictors. These variables explained 63% of the variability of bull kelp in the northern and central regions, and 45% and 51.4% of the variability in giant kelp for the central/southwest and southeast regions, respectively. These large-scale analyses infer that a combination of lower nutrient availability, changes in wave energy and exposure, and increases in temperature and purple sea urchin counts have contributed to the decline of kelp observed in the last decade. Understanding the drivers of kelp dynamics can be used to identify regional patterns of historical stability and periods of significant change, ultimately informing resource management and conservation decisions such as site selection for kelp protection and restoration.

Water quality-fisheries tradeoffs in a changing climate underscore the need for adaptive ecosystem-based management

Changes driven by both unanticipated human activities and management actions are creating wicked management landscapes in freshwater and marine ecosystems that require new approaches to support decision-making. By linking a predictive model of nutrient- and temperature-driven bottom hypoxia with observed commercial fishery harvest data from Lake Erie (United States-Canada) over the past century (1928-2022) and climate projections (2030-2099), we show how simple, yet robust models and routine monitoring data can be used to identify tradeoffs associated with nutrient management and guide decision-making in even the largest of aquatic ecosystems now and in the future. Our approach enabled us to assess planned nutrient load reduction targets designed to mitigate nutrient-driven hypoxia and show why they appear overly restrictive based on current fishery needs, indicating tradeoffs between water quality and fisheries management goals. At the same time, our temperature results show that projected climate change impacts on hypoxic extent will require more stringent nutrient regulations in the future. Beyond providing a rare example of bottom hypoxia driving changes in fishery harvests at an ecosystem scale, our study illustrates the need for adaptive ecosystem-based management, which can be informed by simple predictive models that can be readily applied over long time periods, account for tradeoffs across multiple management sectors (e.g., water quality, fisheries), and address ecosystem nonstationarity (e.g., climate change impacts on management targets). Such approaches will be critical for maintaining valued ecosystem services in the many aquatic systems worldwide that are vulnerable to multiple drivers of environmental change.

Integrating rapid habitat mapping with community metrics and functional traits to assess estuarine ecological conditions: A New Zealand case study

Estuarine ecosystems are under pressure from anthropogenic stressors in many parts of the world. In a New Zealand estuary, we integrated rapid habitat mapping, univariate and multivariate benthic community metrics and functional traits-based metrics to provide a holistic assessment of its ecological condition. Our integrative approach identified 11 different habitat classes across the study estuary and revealed how univariate, multivariate, and functional traits-based metrics varied spatially. Variation was driven mainly by sedimentary conditions, particularly, the sediment's organic matter and silt-clay content. Degraded conditions were apparent in several parts of the estuary, which overlapped with areas showing high concentrations of decaying algae, anoxic conditions, and low values of univariate and functional metrics. Our holistic approach, integrating mapping and quantitative community assessments, provided a more complete picture of estuarine conditions and enabled us to identify locations across the estuary with the greatest potential for restoration success.

Interpreting life-history traits, seasonal cycles, and coastal climate from an intertidal mussel species: Insights from 9000 years of synthesized stable isotope data

Understanding past coastal variability is valuable for contextualizing modern changes in coastal settings, yet existing Holocene paleoceanographic records for the North American Pacific Coast commonly originate from offshore marine sediments and may not represent the dynamic coastal environment. A potential archive of eastern Pacific Coast environmental variability is the intertidal mussel species Mytilus californianus. Archaeologists have collected copious stable isotopic (δ18O and δ13C) data from M. californianus shells to study human history at California's Channel Islands. When analyzed together, these isotopic data provide windows into 9000 years of Holocene isotopic variability and M. californianus life history. Here we synthesize over 6000 δ18O and δ13C data points from 13 published studies to investigate M. californianus shell isotopic variability across ontogenetic, geographic, seasonal, and millennial scales. Our analyses show that M. californianus may grow and record environmental information more irregularly than expected due to the competing influences of calcification, ontogeny, metabolism, and habitat. Stable isotope profiles with five or more subsamples per shell recorded environmental information ranging from seasonal to millennial scales, depending on the number of shells analyzed and the resolution of isotopic subsampling. Individual shell profiles contained seasonal cycles and an accurate inferred annual temperature range of ~ 5°C, although ontogenetic growth reduction obscured seasonal signals as organisms aged. Collectively, the mussel shell record reflected millennial-scale climate variability and an overall 0.52‰ depletion in δ18Oshell from 8800 BP to the present. The archive also revealed local-scale oceanographic variability in the form of a warmer coastal mainland δ18Oshell signal (-0.32‰) compared to a cooler offshore islands δ18Oshell signal (0.33‰). While M. californianus is a promising coastal archive, we emphasize the need for high-resolution subsampling from multiple individuals to disentangle impacts of calcification, metabolism, ontogeny, and habitat and more accurately infer environmental and biological patterns recorded by an intertidal species.

Climatic, oceanic, freshwater, and local environmental drivers of New Zealand estuarine macroinvertebrates

Understanding the responses of organisms to different environmental drivers is critical for improving ecosystem management and conservation. Estuarine ecosystems are under pressure from multiple anthropogenic stressors (e.g. increasing sediment and nutrient loads, pollution, climate change) that are affecting the functions and services these ecosystems provide. Here, we used long-term estuarine benthic invertebrate monitoring data (∼30 year time-series) to evaluate the responses of macrobenthic invertebrate communities and indicator species to climatic, oceanic, freshwater, and local environmental drivers in New Zealand estuaries. We aimed to improve our ability to predict ecosystem change and understand the effects of multiple environment drivers on benthic communities. Our analyses showed that the abundance and richness of macrobenthic fauna and four indicator taxa (bivalves known to have differing tolerances to sediment mud content: Austrovenus stutchburyi, Macomona liliana, Theora lubrica, and Arthritica bifurca) responded to unique combinations of multiple environmental drivers across sites and times. Macrobenthic responses were highly mixed (i.e., positive and negative) and site-dependent. We also show that responses of macrobenthic fauna were lagged and most strongly related to climatic and oceanic drivers. The way the macrobenthos responded has implications for predicting and understanding the ecological consequences of a rapidly changing environment and how we conserve and manage coastal ecosystems.

Responses of the coral reef cryptobiome to environmental gradients in the Red Sea

An essential component of the coral reef animal diversity is the species hidden in crevices within the reef matrix, referred to as the cryptobiome. These organisms play an important role in nutrient cycling and provide an abundant food source for higher trophic levels, yet they have been largely overlooked. Here, we analyzed the distribution patterns of the mobile cryptobiome (>2000 μm) along the latitudinal gradient of the Saudi Arabian coast of the Red Sea. Analysis was conducted based on 54 Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures. We retrieved a total of 5273 organisms, from which 2583 DNA sequences from the mitochondrially encoded cytochrome c oxidase I were generated through sanger sequencing. We found that the cryptobiome community is variable over short geographical distances within the basin. Regression tree models identified sea surface temperature (SST), percentage cover of hard coral and turf algae as determinant for the number of operational taxonomic units present per Autonomous Reef Monitoring Structures (ARMS). Our results also show that the community structure of the cryptobiome is associated with the energy available (measured as photosynthetic active radiation), sea surface temperature, and nearby reef habitat characteristics (namely hard corals, turf and macroalgae). Given that temperature and reef benthic characteristics affect the cryptobiome, current scenarios of intensive climate change are likely to modify this fundamental biological component of coral reef functioning. However, the trajectory of change is unknow and can be site specific, as for example, diversity is expected to increase above SST of 28.5°C, and with decreasing hard coral and turf cover. This study provides a baseline of the cryptobenthic community prior to major coastal developments in the Red Sea to be used for future biodiversity studies and monitoring projects. It can also contribute to better understand patterns of reef biodiversity in a period where Marine Protected Areas are being discussed in the region.

Life goes on: Spatial heterogeneity promotes biodiversity in an urbanized coastal marine ecosystem

Both human populations and marine biodiversity are concentrated along coastlines, with growing conservation interest in how these ecosystems can survive intense anthropogenic impacts. Tropical urban centres provide valuable research opportunities because these megacities are often adjacent to mega-diverse coral reef systems. The Pearl River Delta is a prime exemplar, as it encompasses one of the most densely populated and impacted regions in the world and is located just northwest of the Coral Triangle. However, the spatial and taxonomic complexity of this biodiversity, most of which is small, cryptic in habitat and poorly known, make comparative analyses challenging. We deployed standardized settlement structures at seven sites differing in the intensity of human impacts and used COI metabarcoding to characterize benthic biodiversity, with a focus on metazoans. We found a total of 7184 OTUs, with an average of 665 OTUs per sampling unit; these numbers exceed those observed in many previous studies using comparable methods, despite the location of our study in an urbanized environment. Beta diversity was also high, with 52% of the OTUs found at just one site. As expected, we found that the sites close to point sources of pollution had substantially lower diversity (44% less) relative to sites bathed in less polluted oceanic waters. However, the polluted sites contributed substantially to the total animal diversity of the region, with 25% of all OTUs occurring only within polluted sites. Further analysis of Arthropoda, Annelida and Mollusca showed that phylogenetic clustering within a site was common, suggesting that environmental filtering reduced biodiversity to a subset of lineages present within the region, a pattern that was most pronounced in polluted sites and for the Arthropoda. The water quality gradients surrounding the PRD highlight the unique role of in situ studies for understanding the impacts of complex urbanization pressures on biodiversity.

Determination of potentially toxic elements bioaccumulated in the commercially important pelagic fish narrow-barred Spanish mackerel (Scomberomorus commerson)

Anthropogenic activities have increased the discharge of marine contaminants threatening marine life. Small gulfs, such as the Arabian Gulf, are vulnerable to accumulating potentially toxic elements in marine species due to slow water exchange. The concentration of 21 elements was determined in the tissues of Scomberomorus commerson from Umm Al Quwain (United Arab Emirates) and Bandar Abbas (Iran). Chromium, Copper, and Iron exceeded internationally established maximum permissible limits. Sites could not be distinguished based on Principle Component Analyses of elements. Elevated Cu and Cr in muscle are of concern to marine species as well as humans. Metal Pollution Index showed a significant difference between sites, with 20.34 % and 100 % of individuals suffering high metal toxicity and poor body conditions, respectively. The Arabian Gulf is experiencing an increase in discharge of industrial wastes. Implementation of strict policies to reduce discharge of toxic substances is required to protect marine organisms and humans.

Influence of a changing wave climate on the quality and morphometry of the stalked barnacle Pollicipes pollicipes (Gmelin, 1789), along the coasts of NW Iberia

Wave climate is shifting over the last decades along the Atlantic coasts of Europe ultimately driven by large-scale patterns of atmospheric variability forced by anthropogenic global warming. Changes in wave height and surf zone orbital currents are hypothesized to drive marked shifts in the shape of intertidal organisms such as the stalked barnacle Pollicipes pollicipes, whose quality and market price are known to decrease non linearly with the peduncle length: width ratio S. This study evaluates wave trends in NW Iberian Peninsula, using the Spanish Port System 2006-2020 SIMAR wave hindcast. On the other hand, trends in stalked barnacle morphology and quality are estimated from 26 sites at the management regions of Baiona and A Guarda between 2011 and 2020. Results show evidence of temporal changes in barnacle quality and, especially, morphometry caused by simultaneous shifts in winter wave induced orbital currents. Because of the non linear relationship between S and the high quality threshold, large increases in S are usually translated to small reductions in quality. However, we identified a tipping point around S = 2.4 that if surpassed can lead to great drops in barnacle quality. In addition, changes in wave forcing will have different effects at each extraction site, as trends in wave climate are decoupled from barnacle morphometry at steeper sites sheltered from the predominant wave direction. In conclusion, this knowledge could be applied to develop site specific barnacle harvesting strategies based on annual wave climate forecasts.

Graphical abstract

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s11160-024-09838-2.

Combined effects of climate warming and pharmaceuticals on a tri-trophic freshwater food web

Multiple anthropogenic stressors influence the functioning of lakes and ponds, but their combined effects are often little understood. We conducted two mesocosm experiments to evaluate the effects of warming (+4 °C above ambient temperature) and environmentally relevant concentrations of a mixture of commonly used pharmaceuticals (cardiovascular, psychoactive, antihistamines, antibiotics) on tri-trophic food webs representative of communities in ponds and other small standing waters. Communities were constituted of phyto- and zooplankton and macroinvertebrates (molluscs and insects) including benthic detritivores, grazers, omnivorous scrapers, omnivorous piercers, water column predators, benthic predators, and phytophilous predators. We quantified the main and interactive effects of warming and pharmaceuticals on each trophic level in the pelagic community and attributed them to the direct effects of both stressors and the indirect effects arising through biotic interactions. Warming and pharmaceuticals had stronger effects in the summer experiment, altering zooplankton community composition and causing delayed or accelerated emergence of top insect predators (odonates). In the summer experiment, both stressors and top predators reduced the biomass of filter-feeding zooplankton (cladocerans), while warming and pharmaceuticals had opposite effects on phytoplankton. In the winter experiment, the effects were much weaker and were limited to a positive effect of warming on phytoplankton biomass. Overall, we show that pharmaceuticals can exacerbate the effects of climate warming in freshwater ecosystems, especially during the warm season. Our results demonstrate the utility of community-level studies across seasons for risk assessment of multiple emerging stressors in freshwater ecosystems.

Developmental temperature, more than long-term evolution, defines thermal tolerance in an estuarine copepod

Climate change is resulting in increasing ocean temperatures and salinity variability, particularly in estuarine environments. Tolerance of temperature and salinity change interact and thus may impact organismal resilience. Populations can respond to multiple stressors in the short-term (i.e., plasticity) or over longer timescales (i.e., adaptation). However, little is known about the short- or long-term effects of elevated temperature on the tolerance of acute temperature and salinity changes. Here, we characterized the response of the near-shore and estuarine copepod, Acartia tonsa, to temperature and salinity stress. Copepods originated from one of two sets of replicated >40 generation-old temperature-adapted lines: ambient (AM, 18°C) and ocean warming (OW, 22°C). Copepods from these lines were subjected to one and three generations at the reciprocal temperature. Copepods from all treatments were then assessed for differences in acute temperature and salinity tolerance. Development (one generation), three generations, and >40 generations of warming increased thermal tolerance compared to Ambient conditions, with development in OW resulting in equal thermal tolerance to three and >40 generations of OW. Strikingly, developmental OW and >40 generations of OW had no effect on low salinity tolerance relative to ambient. By contrast, when environmental salinity was reduced first, copepods had lower thermal tolerances. These results highlight the critical role for plasticity in the copepod climate response and suggest that salinity variability may reduce copepod tolerance to subsequent warming.

Synergistic climatic and anthropogenic effects on marine species turnover in estuarine waters

Climate and anthropogenic stressors are frequent in coastal systems, affecting biological communities in different intensities and directions. When acting synergistically, their effects may be intensified. ENSO strongly affects the climate globally, being responsible for increased rainfall in the Atlantic Southwestern during El Niño and droughts during La Niña phases. Contrasting, human-made breakwaters have static influence in decreasing estuarine salinity. Using a 23-year of fish abundance dataset, we identified that intense El Niño events and breakwater extension decreased the marine fish abundance, with potential additive synergistic effects, whereas La Niña showed no influence. Species composition changes were observed after the breakwater extension, probably related to opportunistic habits of euryhaline species. Anthropogenic and natural climatic disturbances affect habitat use, and their synergic effects must be considered to evaluate ecosystem responses in the current climate change scenario, and constant human modification of coastal zones.

Implications for the conservation of deep-water corals in the face of multiple stressors: A case study from the New Zealand region

The waters around New Zealand are a global hotspot of biodiversity for deep-water corals; approximately one sixth of the known deep-water coral species of the world have been recorded in the region. Deep-water corals are vulnerable to climate-related stressors and from the damaging effects of commercial fisheries. Current protection measures do not account for the vulnerability of deep-water corals to future climatic conditions, which are predicted to alter the distribution of suitable habitat for them. Using recently developed habitat suitability models for 12 taxa of deep-water corals fitted to current and future seafloor environmental conditions (under different future climatic conditions: SSP2 - 4.5 and SSP3 - 7.0) we explore possible levels of spatial protection using the decision-support tool Zonation. Specifically, we assess the impact of bottom trawling on predictions of current distributions of deep-water corals, and then assess the effectiveness of possible protection for deep-water corals, while accounting for habitat refugia under future climatic conditions. The cumulative impact of bottom trawling was predicted to impact all taxa, but particularly the reef-forming corals. Core areas of suitable habitat were predicted to decrease under future climatic conditions for many taxa. We found that designing protection using current day predictions alone, having accounted for the impacts of historic fishing impacts, was unlikely to provide adequate conservation for deep water-corals under future climate change. Accounting for future distributions in spatial planning identified areas which may provide climate refugia whilst still providing efficient protection for current distributions. These gains in conservation value may be particularly important given the predicted reduction in suitable habitat for deep-water corals due to bottom fishing and climate change. Finally, the possible impact that protection measures may have on deep-water fisheries was assessed using a measure of current fishing value (kg km-2 fish) and future fishing value (predicted under future climate change scenarios).

Impacts of climate change on the distribution of venomous Conus (Gastropoda: Conidae) species in the Indo-Pacific region

Climate change is affecting the distribution of marine organisms worldwide, including venomous marine gastropods that offer risks to human health, but also potential pharmacological resources, such as Conus sp. Species Distribution Models (SDMs) are valuable tools for predicting species distribution under climate change. The objective of our study was to evaluate the potential distribution of Conus geographus and C. textile in the Indo-Pacific region under different climate change scenarios for 2050 and 2090. We constructed SDMs with MaxEnt for each species, using bioclimatic variables from Bio-ORACLE and NOAA, and occurrence data from GBIF. We projected the best-fit model for the present and different future climate change scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). We obtained high accuracy SDMs for C. geographus and C. textile, with Temperature and Primary Productivity as the main explanatory variables. Our future projections reveal that both species may react differently to climate change. Southeast Asia and Micronesia will continue to provide a climatically appropriate environment for both species; however, they may become more suitable for C. geographus and less suitable for C. textile. This may lead to a higher risk of human envenomation by C. geographus, but a lower risk by C. textile. A decreased suitability for C. textile may also lead to the loss of potential pharmacological resources among its range. Our study emphasizes how SDMs can be used to assess the future distribution of species with human health implications, which can aid in the monitoring of venomous marine species.

Planktonic ecological networks support quantification of changes in ecosystem health and functioning

Plankton communities are the foundation of marine food webs and have a large effect on the dynamics of entire ecosystems. Changes in physicochemical factors strongly influence planktonic organisms and their turnover rates, making their communities useful for monitoring ecosystem health. We studied and compared the planktonic food webs of Palude della Rosa (Venice Lagoon, Italy) in 2005 and 2007. The food webs were developed using a novel approach based on the Monte Carlo random sampling of parameters within specific and realistic ranges to derive 1000 food webs for July of each year. The consumption flows involving Strombididae, Evadne spp. and Podon spp. were identified as the most important in splitting food webs of the July of the two years. Although functional nodes (FNs) differed both in presence and abundance in July of the two years, the whole system indicators showed very similar results. Sediment resuspension acted as a source of stress for the Venice Lagoon, being the most used resource by consumers while inhibiting primary producers by increasing water turbidity. Primary production in the water column was mainly generated by benthic FNs. Although the system was near an equilibrium point, it tended to increase its resilience at the expense of efficiency due to stress. This study highlights the role of plankton communities, which can serve to assess ecosystem health.

Submarine groundwater discharge interacts with creek geomorphology to affect eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica growth rates in a coastal Georgia creek

Eastern oysters, Crassostrea virginica, are commercially important coastal species that provide many ecosystem services for coastal communities. Unfortunately, 85% of oyster reefs have been lost globally, prompting investments in restoration efforts to rebuild populations. Managers often consider several well-studied environmental and water quality parameters when making restoration site decisions. However, recent research suggests that submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) may play a role in driving the distribution of oysters in some estuaries. Specifically, SGD may result in localized areas of low dissolved oxygen and low pH that could inhibit oyster recruitment and survival. However, SGD may interact with other potential oyster stressors, including creek geomorphology. On point bars, sediment accumulation could alter growth rates of oysters and physiology, and it is possible that the two factors, SGD and creek geomorphology, could interact to impact oyster growth. We conducted a field experiment to examine the effects of SGD and creek geomorphology on oyster growth rates in a marsh-lined tidal creek in Georgia, USA. High and low SGD sites were paired within point bars and cut banks. Oysters were deployed in cages for 72 days and growth rates were determined. We found a significant interaction between SGD and creek geomorphology on oyster growth rates. Oysters grew at significantly faster rates at locations on accretionary point bars regardless of SGD flux, whereas, on erosional cut banks, high SGD flux significantly reduced oyster growth rate relative to low SGD flux. It appears that SGD may negatively influence oyster growth at specific creek locations, likely due to the presence of other stressors. Therefore, it is important to consider potential interacting and confounding stressors when managing oyster populations. As SGD is still a relatively understudied potential stressor for oysters, it is critical to continue to examine how groundwater might influence oysters in other locations and in combination with other stressors. Regardless, this study provides further evidence that SGD should be considered in future management efforts.

Interaction effects of crude oil and nutrient exposure on settlement of coral reef benthos

Anthropogenic stressors increasingly cause ecosystem-level changes to sensitive marine habitats such as coral reefs. Intensification of coastal development and shipping traffic can increase nutrient and oil pollution on coral reefs, yet these two stressors have not been studied in conjunction. Here, we simulate a disturbance scenario exposing carbonate settlement tiles to nutrient and oil pollution in a full-factorial design with four treatments: control, nutrients, oil, and combination to examine community structure and net primary productivity (NPP) of pioneer communities throughout 28 weeks. Compared to the control treatment oil pollution decreased overall settlement and NPP, while nutrients increased turf algae and NPP. However, the combination of these two stressors resulted in similar community composition and NPP as the control. These results indicate that pioneer communities may experience shifts due to nutrient enrichment, and/or oil pollution. However, the timing and duration of an event will influence recovery trajectories requiring further study.

Perceived multiple stressor effects depend on sample size and stressor gradient length

Multiple stressors are continuously deteriorating surface waters worldwide, posing many challenges for their conservation and restoration. Combined effect types of multiple stressors range from single-stressor dominance to complex interactions. Identifying prevalent combined effect types is critical for environmental management, as it helps to prioritise key stressors for mitigation. However, it remains unclear whether observed single and combined stressor effects reflect true ecological processes unbiased by sample size and length of stressor gradients. Therefore, we examined the role of sample size and stressor gradient lengths in 158 paired-stressor response cases with over 120,000 samples from rivers, lakes, transitional and marine ecosystems around the world. For each case, we split the overall stressor gradient into two partial gradients (lower and upper) and investigated associated changes in single and combined stressor effects. Sample size influenced the identified combined effect types, and stressor interactions were less likely for cases with fewer samples. After splitting gradients, 40 % of cases showed a change in combined effect type, 30 % no change, and 31 % showed a loss in stressor effects. These findings suggest that identified combined effect types may often be statistical artefacts rather than representing ecological processes. In 58 % of cases, we observed changes in stressor effect directions after the gradient split, suggesting unimodal stressor effects. In general, such non-linear responses were more pronounced for organisms at higher trophic levels. We conclude that observed multiple stressor effects are not solely determined by ecological processes, but also strongly depend on sampling design. Observed effects are likely to change when sample size and/or gradient length are modified. Our study highlights the need for improved monitoring programmes with sufficient sample size and stressor gradient coverage. Our findings emphasize the importance of adaptive management, as stress reduction measures or further ecosystem degradation may change multiple stressor-effect relationships, which will then require associated changes in management strategies.

The impact of cumulative stressor effects on uncertainty and ecological risk

To enable environmental management actions to be more effectively prioritized, cumulative effects between multiple stressors need to be accounted for in risk-assessment frameworks. Ecological risk and uncertainty are generally high when multiple stressors occur. In the face of high uncertainty, transparent communication is essential to inform decision-making. The impact of stressor interactions on risk and uncertainty was assessed using generalized linear models for additive and multiplicative effect of six anthropogenic stressors on the abundance of estuarine macrofauna across New Zealand. Models that accounted for multiplicative stressor interactions demonstrated that non-additive effects dominated, had increased explanatory power (6 to 73 % relative increase between models), and thereby reduced the risk of unexpected ecological responses to stress. Secondly, 3D-plots provide important insights in the direction, magnitude and gradients of change, and aid transparency and communication of complex stressor effects. Notably, small changes in a stressor can cause a disproportionally steep gradient of change for a synergistic effect where the tolerance to stressors are lost, and would invoke precautionary management. 3D-plots were able to clearly identify directional shifts where the nature of the interaction changed from antagonistic to synergistic along increasing stressor gradients. For example, increased nitrogen load and exposure caused a shift from positive to negative effect on the abundance of a deposit-feeding polychaete (Magelona). Assessments relying on model coefficient estimates, which provide one effect term, could not capture the complexities observed in 3D-plots and are at risk of mis-identifying interaction types. Finally, visualising model uncertainty demonstrated that although error terms were higher for multiplicative models, they better captured the uncertainty caused by data availability. Together, the steep gradients of change identified in 3D-plots and the higher uncertainty in model predictions in multiplicative models urges more conservative limits to be set for management that account for risk and uncertainty in multiple stressor effects.

Integrative Approaches to Understanding Organismal Responses to Aquatic Deoxygenation

AbstractOxygen bioavailability is declining in aquatic systems worldwide as a result of climate change and other anthropogenic stressors. For aquatic organisms, the consequences are poorly known but are likely to reflect both direct effects of declining oxygen bioavailability and interactions between oxygen and other stressors, including two-warming and acidification-that have received substantial attention in recent decades and that typically accompany oxygen changes. Drawing on the collected papers in this symposium volume ("An Oxygen Perspective on Climate Change"), we outline the causes and consequences of declining oxygen bioavailability. First, we discuss the scope of natural and predicted anthropogenic changes in aquatic oxygen levels. Although modern organisms are the result of long evolutionary histories during which they were exposed to natural oxygen regimes, anthropogenic change is now exposing them to more extreme conditions and novel combinations of low oxygen with other stressors. Second, we identify behavioral and physiological mechanisms that underlie the interactive effects of oxygen with other stressors, and we assess the range of potential organismal responses to oxygen limitation that occur across levels of biological organization and over multiple timescales. We argue that metabolism and energetics provide a powerful and unifying framework for understanding organism-oxygen interactions. Third, we conclude by outlining a set of approaches for maximizing the effectiveness of future work, including focusing on long-term experiments using biologically realistic variation in experimental factors and taking truly cross-disciplinary and integrative approaches to understanding and predicting future effects.

Cascading effects of climate change on recreational marine flats fishes and fisheries

Tropical and subtropical coastal flats are shallow regions of the marine environment at the intersection of land and sea. These regions provide myriad ecological goods and services, including recreational fisheries focused on flats-inhabiting fishes such as bonefish, tarpon, and permit. The cascading effects of climate change have the potential to negatively impact coastal flats around the globe and to reduce their ecological and economic value. In this paper, we consider how the combined effects of climate change, including extremes in temperature and precipitation regimes, sea level rise, and changes in nutrient dynamics, are causing rapid and potentially permanent changes to the structure and function of tropical and subtropical flats ecosystems. We then apply the available science on recreationally targeted fishes to reveal how these changes can cascade through layers of biological organization-from individuals, to populations, to communities-and ultimately impact the coastal systems that depend on them. We identify critical gaps in knowledge related to the extent and severity of these effects, and how such gaps influence the effectiveness of conservation, management, policy, and grassroots stewardship efforts.

Benthic impact assessment of a dredge sediment disposal in a dynamic resilient environment

The eastern part of the Bay of Seine (English Channel) is highly impacted by harbour activities and the dumping of dredged sediment by the port authorities of Le Havre (GPMH) and Rouen (GPMR). Sediment dredged by the GPMH (2-2.5 millions of m³ per year) has been disposed at the subtidal Octeville site since 1947. Since the 2000s, mainly fine sediment (80% of fine particles <63 μm) has been disposed using alternate mosaic boxes with limited thickness (0.2 to 0.6 m per box per year), preventing the accumulation of disposed sediment in some parts of the dumping site. During the period August 2016 to September 2017, an experimental study was set up to identify the spatio-temporal changes of the macrobenthos collected at ten stations on six dates: three stations where different volumes of sediments were dumped (from 41,000 to 186,000 m³), two stations located within the Octeville site but without dumping operations during the study and five stations outside the disposal site (northern and southern zones). The Taxonomic Richness, total abundance and abundances of the polychaete Owenia fusiformis show negative correlations with the volumes of deposited sediment, whereas use of the AMBI (AZTI's Marine Biotic Index) and B2OA (Benthic Opportunist Annelids Amphipods) indices does not allow us to distinguish the impacted zone. Our study shows that the impact of dumping remains local and the benthic habitats display a high degree of resilience with rapid recovery of the community after the cessation of disturbance. Recommendations on the future long-term strategy are proposed to improve assessment and minimise the impact of dumping sediment on this benthic habitat.

Drawing the borders of the mesophotic zone of the Mediterranean Sea using satellite data

The 30–150 m bathymetric range is commonly adopted in the literature to constrain the mesophotic zone. However, such depth interval varies depending on sunlight penetration, which is primarily a function of solar radiation incidence and water clarity. This is especially obvious in the Mediterranean Sea with its peculiar biophysical properties. Integrating information on light regime in the estimation of the bathymetric range of the mesophotic zone would provide a more robust definition, orienting conservation actions targeting its ecosystems. We present a first assessment of the spatial and vertical extension of the mesophotic zone in the Mediterranean Sea based upon light penetration, comparing our prediction with literature data. Our study also represents a baseline to monitor future variations in the bathymetric interval associated with the mesophotic zone in the Mediterranean Sea in relation to global changes.

Dynamics of Restored and Natural Oyster Reefs After a Hurricane

Restoration of shellfish reefs has increased exponentially over the past two decades, due in part to increased awareness of widespread oyster habitat loss. Large-scale, acute disturbances such as hurricanes have the potential to influence restoration outcomes, but because storm occurrence is unpredictable with respect to restoration timelines, the responses of restored habitats are not well understood. We quantified the ecological dynamics of a newly constructed Crassostrea virginica oyster reef and nearby reference reef in a Texas estuary immediately after Hurricane Harvey, a major category 4 storm. Biophysical structure (e.g., oyster density, shell height, sediment grain size), and community composition (abundance of reef-associated epifauna, and nearby infauna) were measured for 18 months. A sharp decrease in salinity and temporary deposition of fine sediments within the first 3 months corresponded with increases in oyster and epifaunal recruitment on the restored reef, although densities were generally below those measured on restored reefs without hurricanes. Criteria for oyster reef restoration success were met within 12–18 months post-storm. Infaunal densities decreased but returned to pre-storm densities within 2 months, but bivalves were delayed, returning to pre-storm levels after 9 months. A lack of historical baseline data on the newly restored reef limited our ability to assess the magnitude of reef recovery to pre-disturbance levels or separate the direct effects of the hurricane from the dynamics of early recruitment and growth. Results provide important information about restored and natural oyster reef dynamics after large-scale disturbance and can help inform effective management and conservation measures.

Informing the management of multiple stressors on estuarine ecosystems using an expert-based Bayesian Network model

The approach of applying stressor load limits or thresholds to aid estuarine management is being explored in many global case studies. However, there is growing concern regarding the influence of multiple stressors and their cumulative effects on the functioning of estuarine ecosystems due to the considerable uncertainty around stressor interactions. Recognising that empirical data limitations hinder parameterisation of detailed models of estuarine ecosystem responses to multiple stressors (suspended sediment, sediment mud and metal content, and nitrogen inputs), an expert driven Bayesian network (BN) was developed and validated. Overall, trends in estuarine condition predicted by the BN model were well supported by field observations, including results that were markedly higher than random (71-84% concordance), providing confidence in the overall model dynamics. The general BN framework was then applied to a case study estuary to demonstrate the model's utility for informing management decisions. Results indicated that reductions in suspended sediment loading were likely to result in improvements in estuarine condition, which was further improved by reductions in sediment mud and metal content, with an increased likelihood of high abundance of ecological communities relative to baseline conditions. Notably, reductions in suspended sediment were also associated with an increased probability of high nuisance macroalgae and phytoplankton if nutrient loading was not also reduced (associated with increased water column light penetration). Our results highlight that if stressor limit setting is to be implemented, limits must incorporate ecosystem responses to cumulative stressors, consider the present and desired future condition of the estuary of interest, and account for the likelihood of unexpected ecological outcomes regardless of whether the experts (or empirical data) suggest a threshold has or has not been triggered.

Toward a conceptual framework for managing and conserving marine habitats: A case study of kelp forests in the Salish Sea

Kelp forests are in decline across much of their range due to place-specific combinations of local and global stressors. Declines in kelp abundance can lead to cascading losses of biodiversity and productivity with far-reaching ecological and socioeconomic consequences. The Salish Sea is a hotspot of kelp diversity where many species of kelp provide critical habitat and food for commercially, ecologically, and culturally important fish and invertebrate species. However, like other regions, kelp forests in much of the Salish Sea are in rapid decline. Data gaps and limited long-term monitoring have hampered attempts to identify and manage for specific drivers of decline, despite the documented urgency to protect these important habitats. To address these knowledge gaps, we gathered a focus group of experts on kelp in the Salish Sea to identify perceived direct and indirect stressors facing kelp forests. We then conducted a comprehensive literature review of peer-reviewed studies from the Salish Sea and temperate coastal ecosystems worldwide to assess the level of support for the pathways identified by the experts, and we identified knowledge gaps to prioritize future research. Our results revealed major research gaps within the Salish Sea and highlighted the potential to use expert knowledge for making informed decisions in the region. We found high support for the pathways in the global literature, with variable consensus on the relationship between stressors and responses across studies, confirming the influence of local ecological, oceanographic, and anthropogenic contexts and threshold effects on stressor-response relationships. Finally, we prioritized areas for future research in the Salish Sea. This study demonstrates the value expert opinion has to inform management decisions. These methods are readily adaptable to other ecosystem management contexts, and the results of this case study can be immediately applied to kelp management.

Macrobenthic community responses to multiple environmental stressors in a subtropical estuary

We assessed how multi- and univariate models reflect marine environmental health based on macrobenthic community responses to three environmental stressor categories: hydrodynamics, organic enrichment and metal contamination. We then compared the models with the benthic index AMBI (AZTI Marine Biotic Index). Macrobenthic community and physicochemical variables were sampled at 35 sites along Babitonga Bay, a subtropical estuary in Southern Brazil. Distance-based linear modelling identified depth, grain size and organic matter as well as Cu and Zn as key stressors affecting the macrobenthos. Using canonical analysis of principal coordinates (CAP), we developed three multivariate models based on the variability in community composition, creating stress gradients. The metal gradient showed better correlation with the benthic community. Sediment quality indices (Geoaccumulation Index and Contamination Factor) showed a low to moderate contamination status, with higher concentrations for Cr, Ni and Zn at the inner areas of the bay. According to AMBI, Babitonga Bay has a “good” environmental health status, and the AMBI values show stronger correlations with the hydrodynamic and organic enrichment gradients (r = 0.50 and r = 0.47) rather than the metal gradient (r = 0.29). Lumbrineridae polychaetes (not included in the AMBI list) and Scoloplos sp. were negatively related to the metal contamination gradient and were considered sensitive, while Sigambra sp., Magelona papillicornis, the gastropod Heleobia australis and species of the crustacean order Mysida were positively related to the gradient and considered tolerant to higher concentrations of metals in the sediment. Despite the inconsistency in the ecological classification provided by AMBI and its relationship with the metal gradient, our results suggest that the environmental quality was satisfactory for the studied gradients. The metal gradient showed the weakest correlation to AMBI. In such cases, the ecological classification of taxa by the index should be evaluated under the perspective of the action of inorganic genotoxic contaminants represented by metals.

Multinational coordination required for conservation of over 90% of marine species

Marine species are declining at an unprecedented rate, catalyzing many nations to adopt conservation and management targets within their jurisdictions. However, marine species and the biophysical processes that sustain them are naive to international borders. An understanding of the prevalence of cross-border species distributions is important for informing high-level conservation strategies, such as bilateral or regional agreements. Here, we examined 28,252 distribution maps to determine the number and locations of transboundary marine plants and animals. More than 90% of species have ranges spanning at least two jurisdictions, with 58% covering more than 10 jurisdictions. All jurisdictions have at least one transboundary species, with the highest concentrations of transboundary species in the USA, Australia, Indonesia, and the Areas Beyond National Jurisdiction. Distributions of mapped biodiversity indicate that overcoming the challenges of multinational governance is critical for a much wider suite of species than migratory megavertebrates and commercially exploited fish stocks-the groups that have received the vast majority of multinational management attention. To effectively protect marine biodiversity, international governance mechanisms (particularly those related to the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Convention on Migratory Species, and Regional Seas Organizations) must be expanded to promote multinational conservation planning, and complimented by a holistic governance framework for biodiversity beyond national jurisdiction.

Early-stage anomalies in the sea urchin (Paracentrotus lividus) as bioindicators of multiple stressors in the marine environment: Overview and future perspectives

The morphological anomalies of the early development stages of the sea urchin Paracentrotus lividus, caused by exposure to environmental stressors, are used as biomarker in ecotoxicological and ecological investigations. Here, we reviewed the available literature and classified the embryo and larval anomalies identified so far, to highlight potential commonalities or differences related to the biological action of the different stressors and their ecological impact. Morphological anomalies are influenced by a) the developmental stage of exposure to stressors; b) the intensity of the stress; c) the intra- and inter-cellular mechanisms affected by the exposure to environmental agents. The classification and analysis of embryo and larvae anomalies, either observed by the authors of this review and reported in literature, indicate that sea urchin abnormalities, caused by exposure to different stressors, can be very similar among them and classified into 18 main types, which can occur individually or mixed. All anomalies can be used to calculate an Index of Contaminant Impact to assess the impact of multiple stressors and to identify relationships between morphological anomalies and compromised biological mechanisms. This approach could be useful for a first screening of the presence of potential stressors impairing the growth and development of the early life stages of marine organisms, thus providing a relevant advancement for in future monitoring activities devoted to assess the health status in coastal marine ecosystems.

Differential Tolerance and Seasonal Adaptation to Temperature and Salinity Stress at a Dynamic Range Boundary Between Estuarine Gastropods

AbstractInsight into how coastal organisms will respond to changing temperature and salinity regimes may be derived from studies of adaptation to fluctuating estuarine environments, especially under stressful range-edge conditions. We characterized a dynamic range boundary between two estuarine sea slugs, Alderia modesta (distributed across the North Pacific and North Atlantic) and Alderia willowi, known from southern and central California. The species overlap from Bodega Bay to San Francisco Bay, where populations are dominated by A. modesta after winter rains but by A. willowi after peak summer temperatures. Laboratory assays confirmed superior tolerance to low salinity for the northern species, A. modesta: encapsulated embryos developed at 8 ppt, larvae survived at 4-6 ppt, and adults survived repeated exposure to 2 ppt, salinities that reduced development or survival for the same stages of A. willowi. Adults did not appreciably differ in their high-temperature threshold, however. Each species showed increased tolerance to either temperature or salinity stress at its range margin, indicating plasticity or local adaptation, but at the cost of reduced tolerance to the other stressor. At its northern limit, A. willowi became more tolerant of low salinity during the winter rainy season, but also less heat tolerant. Conversely, A. modesta became more heat resistant from spring to summer at its southern limit, but less tolerant of low salinity. Trade-offs in stress tolerance may generally constrain adaptation and limit biotic response to a rapidly changing environment, as well as differentiating species niches.

Semiparametric model selection for identification of environmental covariates related to adult groundfish catches and weights

Ecologists and fisheries managers are interested in monitoring economically important marine fish species and using this data to inform management strategies. Determining environmental factors that best predict changes in these populations, particularly under rapid climate change, are a priority. I illustrate the application of the least squares-based spline estimation and group LASSO (LSSGLASSO) procedure for selection of coefficient functions in single index varying coefficient models (SIVCMs) on an ecological data set that includes spatiotemporal environmental covariates suspected to play a role in the catches and weights of six groundfish species. Temporal trends in variable selection were apparent, though the selection of variables was largely unrelated to common North Pacific climate indices. These results indicate that the strength of an environmental variable’s effect on a groundfish population may change over time, and not necessarily in-step with known low-frequency patterns of ocean-climate variability commonly attributable to large-scale regime shifts in the North Pacific. My application of the LSSGLASSO procedure for SIVCMs to deep water species using environmental data from various sources illustrates how variable selection with a flexible model structure can produce informative inference for remote and hard-to-reach animal populations.

The Conservational State of Coastal Ecosystems on the Mexican Caribbean Coast: Environmental Guidelines for Their Management

The accelerated rate of environmental degradation of the Mexican Caribbean coast is alarming. In this work, spatial analysis procedures were applied to study relationships among wave and wind climates, water quality, and environmental degradation of the principal coastal ecosystems. We found an increasing North-South gradient in the preservation state of the coastal ecosystems, related to the degree of anthropization of the coastline. In the north, all analysed stressors exert high pressure on coral reefs, seagrass meadows, mangroves, and dunes, and cause chronic coastline erosion. The coastal ecosystems of the central and southern regions are more mature and healthier, and the most significant stressor is reduced water quality. The north has been most hit by high-intensity hurricanes, the frequency of which has increased in the Mexican Caribbean over recent decades. The status of conservation of the ecosystems, added to the long-term intensification of environmental pressures, particularly high-intensity hurricanes, will induce further deterioration if a coordinated management scheme is not adopted by decision-makers. To ensure effective coordinated management, plans should be made on a regional scale using shared guidelines. Spatial analysis procedures aid in prioritizing and adapting the shared guidelines depending on the identified major stressors and the preservation state of each region in the Mexican Caribbean.

Environmental stressors, complex interactions and marine benthic communities' responses

The increasing number and diversity of anthropogenic stressors in marine habitats have multiple negative impacts on biological systems, biodiversity and ecosystem functions. Methods to assess cumulative effects include experimental manipulations, which may identify non-linear responses (i.e. synergies, antagonisms). However, experiments designed to test these ideas are uncommon, generally focusing on single biological responses. We conducted a manipulative experiment to investigate the isolated and combined effects of warming (+ 6 °C), salinity variation (freshwater pulses or presses), and nutrient enrichment (natural or enriched) following one and three month's exposure, on responses measured at multiple levels of biological complexity in a simple bivalve assemblage. More specifically, we determined effects on bivalve mortality, growth, shell mineralization, and energy content, as well as microphytobenthos biomass. Salinity variation and nutrient enrichment, individually and combined, caused strong impacts on some of the measured variables and their effect varied through time. In contrast, warming had no effect. Our work highlights the prevalence of antagonistic interactions, the importance of examining effects of single and multiple stressors through time, and of considering multiple responses to understand the complexity behind stressor interactions.

Synergistic interactions among growing stressors increase risk to an Arctic ecosystem

Oceans provide critical ecosystem services, but are subject to a growing number of external pressures, including overfishing, pollution, habitat destruction, and climate change. Current models typically treat stressors on species and ecosystems independently, though in reality, stressors often interact in ways that are not well understood. Here, we use a network interaction model (OSIRIS) to explicitly study stressor interactions in the Chukchi Sea (Arctic Ocean) due to its extensive climate-driven loss of sea ice and accelerated growth of other stressors, including shipping and oil exploration. The model includes numerous trophic levels ranging from phytoplankton to polar bears. We find that climate-related stressors have a larger impact on animal populations than do acute stressors like increased shipping and subsistence harvesting. In particular, organisms with a strong temperature-growth rate relationship show the greatest changes in biomass as interaction strength increased, but also exhibit the greatest variability. Neglecting interactions between stressors vastly underestimates the risk of population crashes. Our results indicate that models must account for stressor interactions to enable responsible management and decision-making.

Season specific influence of projected ocean changes on the response to cadmium of stress-related genes in Mytilus galloprovincialis

Anthropogenic inputs of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere are driving ocean warming and acidification. The potential threat represented by these changes for marine species could be amplified in coastal areas, characterized by higher levels of pollutants. In addition, temperate organisms may exhibit a different seasonal tolerance to stressors influenced by fluctuations of environmental and physiological factors. In this study, Mediterranean mussels Mytilus galloprovincialis collected both in summer and winter were exposed to combinations of two temperatures (SST, seasonal surface temperature and SST+5 °C) and two levels of pH (8.20 and 7.40) in clean or cadmium contaminated seawater (20 μg/L Cd). mRNA levels of genes related to metal-induced stress response were investigated, including metallothionein mt-20, heat-shock protein hsp70, superoxide dismutase Cu/Zn-sod, catalase cat, glutathione peroxidase gpx1 and glutathione S-transferase gst-pi. To further elucidate if tissues with different physiological roles could exhibit different responsiveness, such analyses were carried out in digestive gland and in gills of exposed mussels. mt-20 mRNA increase after Cd-exposure was higher in the digestive gland than in the gills, with few modulations by temperature or pH only in the latter. Acidification, alone or in combination with other stressors, increased hsp70 mRNA, with seasonal- and tissue-specificities (higher in summer and in digestive gland). Among antioxidants, gpx1 mRNA was affected by Cd in both tissues and seasons, with further modulations due to pH and temperature variation tissue- and season-specific; in winter the combination of Cd, warming and acidification affected Cu/Zn-sod both in digestive gland and gills and cat only in gills, while weak seasonal variations were observed for gst-pi transcripts only in digestive gland. The overall results highlighted the importance of considering seasonality and responsiveness of different tissues to predict the effects of sudden changes in environmental parameters on responsiveness to and toxicity of chemicals in marine coastal organisms.

Long-term spatio-temporal changes of the muddy fine sand benthic community of the Bay of Seine (eastern English Channel)

In the English Channel, the eastern Bay of Seine is exposed to numerous anthropogenic disturbances, in particular major changes in sediment dynamics, which are expected to greatly impact benthic communities. To assess the long-term effects of these stressors on the muddy fine sand benthic community, an original long-term monitoring program has been implemented since 1988. It is based on the sampling of a network of 60 stations during seven surveys over 28 years from 1988 to 2016. We investigate changes of species density, species composition and species diversity at different scales (α-diversity, β-diversity and γ-diversity). Contrary to results obtained in many coastal areas, our results showed a long-term persistence of the community in terms of species composition and structure although a general shift towards muddy sediment has resulted in increased colonisation by species associated with muddy habitats and a decrease in spatial beta diversity.

Incorporating climate change adaptation into marine protected area planning

Climate change is increasingly impacting marine protected areas (MPAs) and MPA networks, yet adaptation strategies are rarely incorporated into MPA design and management plans according to the primary scientific literature. Here we review the state of knowledge for adapting existing and future MPAs to climate change and synthesize case studies (n = 27) of how marine conservation planning can respond to shifting environmental conditions. First, we derive a generalized conservation planning framework based on five published frameworks that incorporate climate change adaptation to inform MPA design. We then summarize examples from the scientific literature to assess how conservation goals were defined, vulnerability assessments performed and adaptation strategies incorporated into the design and management of existing or new MPAs. Our analysis revealed that 82% of real-world examples of climate change adaptation in MPA planning derive from tropical reefs, highlighting the need for research in other ecosystems and habitat types. We found contrasting recommendations for adaptation strategies at the planning stage, either focusing only on climate refugia, or aiming for representative protection of areas encompassing the full range of expected climate change impacts. Recommendations for MPA management were more unified and focused on adaptative management approaches. Lastly, we evaluate common barriers to adopting climate change adaptation strategies based on reviewing studies which conducted interviews with MPA managers and other conservation practitioners. This highlights a lack of scientific studies evaluating different adaptation strategies and shortcomings in current governance structures as two major barriers, and we discuss how these could be overcome. Our review provides a comprehensive synthesis of planning frameworks, case studies, adaptation strategies and management actions which can inform a more coordinated global effort to adapt existing and future MPA networks to continued climate change.

Cold-water coral (Lophelia pertusa) response to multiple stressors: High temperature affects recovery from short-term pollution exposure

There are numerous studies highlighting the impacts of direct and indirect stressors on marine organisms, and multi-stressor studies of their combined effects are an increasing focus of experimental work. Lophelia pertusa is a framework-forming cold-water coral that supports numerous ecosystem services in the deep ocean. These corals are threatened by increasing anthropogenic impacts to the deep-sea, such as global ocean change and hydrocarbon extraction. This study implemented two sets of experiments to assess the effects of future conditions (temperature: 8 °C and 12 °C, pH: 7.9 and 7.6) and hydrocarbon exposure (oil, dispersant, oil + dispersant combined) on coral health. Phenotypic response was assessed through three independent observations of diagnostic characteristics that were combined into an average health rating at four points during exposure and recovery. In both experiments, regardless of environmental condition, average health significantly declined during 24-hour exposure to dispersant alone but was not significantly altered in the other treatments. In the early recovery stage (24 hours), polyp health returned to the pre-exposure health state under ambient temperature in all treatments. However, increased temperature resulted in a delay in recovery (72 hours) from dispersant exposure. These experiments provide evidence that global ocean change can affect the resilience of corals to environmental stressors and that exposure to chemical dispersants may pose a greater threat than oil itself.

Cumulative biomass curves describe past and present conditions of Large Marine Ecosystems

Implementing the Ecosystem Approach in marine ecosystems is moving from preliminary steps-dedicated to defining the optimal features for indicators and developing efficient indicator frameworks-towards an operational phase where multisector marine management decisions are executed using this information. Within this operational context, emergent ecosystem properties are becoming quite promising as they have been demonstrated to be globally widespread and repeatable, and to be quite effective in detecting significant state variations of complex systems. Biomass accumulation across TLs (CumB-TL) combines two important emergent properties of an ecosystem (energy flow, in terms of transfer efficiency, and storage, expressed as biomass), both amenable to detecting rapid ecosystem change. However, for further application, it is crucial to understand which types of drivers an indicator is sensitive to and how robust it is in relation to modifications of the external conditions and/or the system state. Here we address some outstanding questions of these CumB-TL curves related to their sensitivity to various drivers by carrying out a global scale assessment (using data from 62 LMEs) over six decades (1950-2010). We confirm the consistency of the S-pattern across all the LMEs, independent from latitude, ecosystem, environmental conditions, and stress level. The dynamics of the curve shape showed a tendency to stretch (i.e. decrease of steepness), in the presence of external disturbance and conversely to increase in steepness and shift towards higher TL in the case of recovery from stressed conditions. Our results suggest the presence of three main types of ecosystem dynamics, those showing an almost continuous increase in ecological state over time, those showing a continuous decrease in ecological state over time, and finally those showing a mixed behaviour flipping between recovering and degrading phases. These robust patterns suggest that the CumB-TL curve approach has some useful properties for use in further advancing the implementation of the Ecosystem Approach, allowing us to detect the state of a given marine ecosystem based on the dynamics of its curve shape, by using readily available time series data. The value of being able to identify conditions that might require management actions is quite high and, in many respects, represents the main objective in the context of an Ecosystem Approach, with large applications for detecting and responding to global changes in marine ecosystems.

Multiple stressor effects on coral reef ecosystems

Global climate change has profound implications on species distributions and ecosystem functioning. In the coastal zone, ecological responses may be driven by various biogeochemical and physical environmental factors. Synergistic interactions can occur when the combined effects of stressors exceed their individual effects. The Red Sea, characterized by strong gradients in temperature, salinity, and nutrients along the latitudinal axis provides a unique opportunity to study ecological responses over a range of these environmental variables. Using multiple linear regression models integrating in situ, satellite and oceanographic data, we investigated the response of coral reef taxa to local stressors and recent climate variability. Taxa and functional groups responded to a combination of climate (temperature, salinity, air-sea heat fluxes, irradiance, wind speed), fishing pressure and biogeochemical (chlorophyll a and nutrients - phosphate, nitrate, nitrite) factors. The regression model for each species showed interactive effects of climate, fishing pressure and nutrient variables. The nature of the effects (antagonistic or synergistic) was dependent on the species and stressor pair. Variables consistently associated with the highest number of synergistic interactions included heat flux terms, temperature, and wind speed followed by fishing pressure. Hard corals and coralline algae abundance were sensitive to changing environmental conditions where synergistic interactions decreased their percentage cover. These synergistic interactions suggest that the negative effects of fishing pressure and eutrophication may exacerbate the impact of climate change on corals. A high number of interactions were also recorded for algae, however for this group, synergistic interactions increased algal abundance. This study is unique in applying regression analysis to multiple environmental variables simultaneously to understand stressor interactions in the field. The observed responses have important implications for understanding climate change impacts on marine ecosystems and whether managing local stressors, such as nutrient enrichment and fishing activities, may help mitigate global drivers of change.

Assessing the Ecological Sensitivity of Coastal Marine Ecosystems: A Case Study in Xiamen Bay, China

Coastal marine ecosystems are sensitive to anthropogenic stressors and environmental change. The Chinese Government proposed an ecosystem-based marine spatial planning scheme called the “Marine Ecological Red Line” (MERL), aimed at protecting ecologically sensitive areas. The assessment and mapping of ecosystem sensitivity provide important tools for regional MERL and setting conservation priorities. In this study, an integrated framework for the comprehensive sensitivity assessment of coastal marine ecosystems was proposed. This framework had two components: endogenous sensitivity and exogenous sensitivity. A weighted summation method was used along with a GIS-based spatial analysis to calculate regional sensitivity quantitatively. Taking Xiamen Bay in China as a case study, the approach integrated spatial data on the distribution of marine habitats and multiple human activities. An index system (including 26 indicators) was established for the case study. Five areas with different levels of sensitivity were delineated. In the study region of 1281 km2, areas with extremely high and high sensitivity covered 87 km2 and 235 km2, respectively, and were hypothesized to be priority areas of conservation and regulation. Areas with the highest sensitivity were located closer to Jiulongjiang Estuary and along the coastline of Xiang’an. Areas with lower sensitivity were also mapped in Tong’an Bay, representing possible areas that could accommodate future industrial or intensive human use. Comparative analyses between endogenous sensitivity and exogenous sensitivity allowed the presence of development-protection conflict zones to be identified. The results provide an important scientific basis for MERL decisions. In addition, targeted management strategies were proposed for Xiamen Bay. This study presents an operational approach to provide relevant scientific knowledge on the process of ecosystem-based marine spatial planning, facilitating policy-making decisions in sustainable coastal and marine management.

A Framework for Climate Change-Related Research to Inform Environmental Protection

A critical charge for science to inform environmental protection is to characterize the risks associated with climate change, to support development of appropriate responses. The nature of climate change, however, presents significant challenges that must be overcome to do so, including the need for integration and synthesis across the many disciplines that contain knowledge relevant for achieving environmental protection goals. This paper describes an interdisciplinary research framework organized around three "Science Challenges" that directly respond to the needs of environmental protection organizations. Broadly, these Science Challenges refer to the research needed to: inform actions to enhance resilience across a broad range of environmental and social stresses to environmental management endpoints; actions to limit GHG emissions and slow the underlying rate of climate change; and the transition to sustainability across the full spectrum of climate change impacts and solutions; all as situated within an overarching risk management perspective. These Challenges span all media and systems critical to effective environmental protection, highlighting the cross-cutting nature of climate change and the need to address its impacts across systems and places. While this framework uses EPA's programs as an illustrative example, the research directions articulated herein are broadly applicable across the spectrum of environmental protection organizations. Going forward, we recommend that climate-related research to inform environmental protection efforts should accelerate its evolution toward research that is inherently cross-media and cross-scale; explicitly considers the social dimensions of change; and focuses on designing solutions to the specific risks climate change poses to the environment and society.