Macroecological context predicts species' responses to climate warming

Long-term shift towards shady and nutrient-rich habitats in Central European temperate forests

Biodiversity world-wide has been under increasing anthropogenic pressure in the past century. The long-term response of biotic communities has been tackled primarily by focusing on species richness, community composition and functionality. Equally important are shifts between entire communities and habitat types, which remain an unexplored level of biodiversity change. We have resurveyed > 2000 vegetation plots in temperate forests in central Europe to capture changes over an average of five decades. The plots were assigned to eight broad forest habitat types using an algorithmic classification system. We analysed transitions between the habitat types and interpreted the trend in terms of changes in environmental conditions. We identified a directional shift along the combined gradients of canopy openness and soil nutrients. Nutrient-poor open-canopy forest habitats have declined strongly in favour of fertile closed-canopy habitats. However, the shift was not uniform across the whole gradients. We conclude that the shifts in habitat types represent a century-long successional trend with significant consequences for forest biodiversity. Open forest habitats should be urgently targeted for plant diversity restoration through the implementation of active management. The approach presented here can be applied to other habitat types and at different spatio-temporal scales.

Variable thermal plasticity of leaf functional traits in Andean tropical montane forests

Tropical montane forests (TMFs) are biodiversity hotspots and provide vital ecosystem services, but they are disproportionately vulnerable to climate warming. In the Andes, cold-affiliated species from high elevations are being displaced at the hot end of their thermal distributions by warm-affiliated species migrating upwards from lower elevations, leading to compositional shifts. Leaf functional traits are strong indicators of plant performance and at the community level have been shown to vary along elevation gradients, reflecting plant adaptations to different environmental niches. However, the plastic response of such traits to relatively rapid temperature change in Andean TMF species remains unknown. We used three common garden plantations within a thermosequence in the Colombian Andes to investigate the warming and cooling responses of key leaf functional traits in eight cold- and warm-affiliated species with variable thermal niches. Cold-affiliated species shifted their foliar nutrient concentrations when exposed to warming, while all other traits did not significantly change; contrastingly, warm-affiliated species were able to adjust structural, nutrient and water-use efficiency traits from acquisitive to conservative strategies in response to cooling. Our findings suggest that cold-affiliated species will struggle to acclimate functional traits to warming, conferring warm-affiliated species a competitive advantage under climate change.

One hundred and six years of change in a Sonoran Desert plant community: Impact of climate anomalies and trends in species sensitivities

A major restriction in predicting plant community response to future climate change is a lack of long-term data needed to properly assess species and community response to climate and identify a baseline to detect climate anomalies. Here, we use a 106-year dataset on a Sonoran Desert plant community to test the role of extreme temperature and precipitation anomalies on community dynamics at the decadal scale and over time. Additionally, we tested the climate sensitivity of 39 desert plant species and whether sensitivity was associated with growth form, longevity, geographic range, or local dominance. We found that desert plant communities had shifted directionally over the 106 years, but the climate had little influence on this directional change primarily due to nonlinear shifts in precipitation anomalies. Decadal-scale climate had the largest impact on species richness, species relative density, and total plant cover, explaining up to 26%, 45%, and 55% of the variance in each, respectively. Drought and the interaction between the frequency of freeze events and above-average summer precipitation were among the most influential climate factors. Increased drought frequency and wetter periods with frequent freeze events led to larger reductions in total plant cover, species richness, and the relative densities of dominant subshrubs Ambrosia deltoidea and Encelia farinosa. More than 80% of the tested species were sensitive to climate, but sensitivity was not associated with a species' local dominance, longevity, geographic range, or growth form. Some species appear to exhibit demographic buffering, where when they have a higher sensitivity to drought, they also tend to have a higher sensitivity to favorable (i.e., wetter and hotter) conditions. Overall, our results suggest that, while decadal-scale climate variation substantially impacts these desert plant communities, directional change in temperature over the last century has had little impact due to the relative importance of precipitation and drought. With projections of increased drought in this region, we may see reductions in total vegetation cover and species richness due to the loss of species, possibly through a breakdown in their ability to demographically buffer climatic variation, potentially changing community dynamics through a change in facilitative and competitive processes.

Climate-ecosystem modelling made easy: The Land Sites Platform

Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs) provide a state-of-the-art process-based approach to study the complex interplay between vegetation and its physical environment. For example, they help to predict how terrestrial plants interact with climate, soils, disturbance and competition for resources. We argue that there is untapped potential for the use of DGVMs in ecological and ecophysiological research. One fundamental barrier to realize this potential is that many researchers with relevant expertize (ecology, plant physiology, soil science, etc.) lack access to the technical resources or awareness of the research potential of DGVMs. Here we present the Land Sites Platform (LSP): new software that facilitates single-site simulations with the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator, an advanced DGVM coupled with the Community Land Model. The LSP includes a Graphical User Interface and an Application Programming Interface, which improve the user experience and lower the technical thresholds for installing these model architectures and setting up model experiments. The software is distributed via version-controlled containers; researchers and students can run simulations directly on their personal computers or servers, with relatively low hardware requirements, and on different operating systems. Version 1.0 of the LSP supports site-level simulations. We provide input data for 20 established geo-ecological observation sites in Norway and workflows to add generic sites from public global datasets. The LSP makes standard model experiments with default data easily achievable (e.g., for educational or introductory purposes) while retaining flexibility for more advanced scientific uses. We further provide tools to visualize the model input and output, including simple examples to relate predictions to local observations. The LSP improves access to land surface and DGVM modelling as a building block of community cyberinfrastructure that may inspire new avenues for mechanistic ecosystem research across disciplines.

Large-scale spatial variability in urban tolerance of birds

Quantifying intraspecific and interspecific trait variability is critical to our understanding of biogeography, ecology and conservation. But quantifying such variability and understanding the importance of intraspecific and interspecific variability remain challenging. This is especially true of large geographic scales as this is where the differences between intraspecific and interspecific variability are likely to be greatest. Our goal is to address this research gap using broad-scale citizen science data to quantify intraspecific variability and compare it with interspecific variability, using the example of bird responses to urbanization across the continental United States. Using more than 100 million observations, we quantified urban tolerance for 338 species within randomly sampled spatial regions and then calculated the standard deviation of each species' urban tolerance. We found that species' spatial variability in urban tolerance (i.e. standard deviation) was largely explained by the variability of urban cover throughout a species' range (R²  = 0.70). Variability in urban tolerance was greater in species that were more tolerant of urban cover (i.e. the average urban tolerance throughout their range), suggesting that generalist life histories are better suited to adapt to novel anthropogenic environments. Overall, species differences explained most of the variability in urban tolerance across spatial regions. Together, our results indicate that (1) intraspecific variability is largely predicted by local environmental variability in urban cover at a large spatial scale and (2) interspecific variability is greater than intraspecific variability, supporting the common use of mean values (i.e. collapsing observations across a species' range) when assessing species-environment relationships. Further studies, across different taxa, traits and species-environment relationships are needed to test the role of intraspecific variability, but nevertheless, we recommend that when possible, ecologists should avoid using discrete categories to classify species in how they respond to the environment.

Climate warming has compounded plant responses to habitat conversion in northern Europe

Serious concerns exist about potentially reinforcing negative effects of climate change and land conversion on biodiversity. Here, we investigate the tandem and interacting roles of climate warming and land-use change as predictors of shifts in the regional distributions of 1701 plant species in Sweden over 60 years. We show that species associated with warmer climates have increased, while grassland specialists have declined. Our results also support the hypothesis that climate warming and vegetation densification through grazing abandonment have synergistic effects on species distribution change. Local extinctions were related to high levels of warming but were reduced by grassland retention. In contrast, colonisations occurred more often in areas experiencing high levels of both climate and land-use change. Strong temperature increases were experienced by species across their ranges, indicating time lags in expected warming-related local extinctions. Our results highlight that the conservation of threatened species relies on both reduced greenhouse gas emissions and the retention and restoration of valuable habitat.

The role of plant functional groups mediating climate impacts on carbon and biodiversity of alpine grasslands

Plant removal experiments allow assessment of the role of biotic interactions among species or functional groups in community assembly and ecosystem functioning. When replicated along climate gradients, they can assess changes in interactions among species or functional groups with climate. Across twelve sites in the Vestland Climate Grid (VCG) spanning 4 °C in growing season temperature and 2000 mm in mean annual precipitation across boreal and alpine regions of Western Norway, we conducted a fully factorial plant functional group removal experiment (graminoids, forbs, bryophytes). Over six years, we recorded biomass removed, soil microclimate, plant community composition and structure, seedling recruitment, ecosystem carbon fluxes, and reflectance in 384 experimental and control plots. The dataset consists of 5,412 biomass records, 360 species-level biomass records, 1,084,970 soil temperature records, 4,771 soil moisture records, 17,181 plant records covering 206 taxa, 16,656 seedling records, 3,696 ecosystem carbon flux measurements, and 1,244 reflectance measurements. The data can be combined with longer-term climate data and plant population, community, ecosystem, and functional trait data collected within the VCG.

Measurement(s)	vegetation layer • ecosystem-wide respiration • ecosystem-wide photosynthesis • seedling development stage • temperature of soil • plant functional group biomass • volumetric soil moisture • reflectance spectrum
Technology Type(s)	Visual species identification and cover estimation • Licor gas analyzer • Visual species identification and estimation • ibutton temperature logger • Analytical Balance • SM300 soil mositure probe, Delta-T • GreenSeeker/Normalized Difference Vegetation Index measurements
Factor Type(s)	temperature • precipitation • Plant functional type composition
Sample Characteristic - Organism	Embryophyta
Sample Characteristic - Environment	alpine tundra biome
Sample Characteristic - Location	Vestlandet Region

DNA Methylation Can Mediate Local Adaptation and Response to Climate Change in the Clonal Plant Fragaria vesca: Evidence From a European-Scale Reciprocal Transplant Experiment

The ongoing climate crisis represents a growing threat for plants and other organisms. However, how and if plants will be able to adapt to future environmental conditions is still debated. One of the most powerful mechanisms allowing plants to tackle the changing climate is phenotypic plasticity, which can be regulated by epigenetic mechanisms. Environmentally induced epigenetic variation mediating phenotypic plasticity might be heritable across (a)sexual generations, thus potentially enabling rapid adaptation to climate change. Here, we assessed whether epigenetic mechanisms, DNA methylation in particular, enable for local adaptation and response to increased and/or decreased temperature of natural populations of a clonal plant, Fragaria vesca (wild strawberry). We collected ramets from three populations along a temperature gradient in each of three countries covering the southern (Italy), central (Czechia), and northern (Norway) edges of the native European range of F. vesca. After clonal propagation and alteration of DNA methylation status of half of the plants via 5-azacytidine, we reciprocally transplanted clones to their home locality and to the other two climatically distinct localities within the country of their origin. At the end of the growing season, we recorded survival and aboveground biomass as fitness estimates. We found evidence for local adaptation in intermediate and cold populations in Italy and maladaptation of plants of the warmest populations in all countries. Plants treated with 5-azacytidine showed either better or worse performance in their local conditions than untreated plants. Application of 5-azacytidine also affected plant response to changed climatic conditions when transplanted to the colder or warmer locality than was their origin, and the response was, however, country-specific. We conclude that the increasing temperature will probably be the limiting factor determining F. vesca survival and distribution. DNA methylation may contribute to local adaptation and response to climatic change in natural ecosystems; however, its role may depend on the specific environmental conditions. Since adaptation mediated by epigenetic variation may occur faster than via natural selection on genetic variants, epigenetic adaptation might to some degree help plants in keeping up with the ongoing environmental crisis.