The effect of climate change on the occurrence and prevalence of livestock diseases in Great Britain: a review

Determinants of farms' antibiotic consumption - A longitudinal study of pig fattening farms in Germany

As high consumption of antibiotics in livestock production poses risks to public health, Germany has implemented a monitoring system to decrease their administration to farm animals. Data from 1,984 German pig farms are used to describe prescription trends for different antibiotic subclasses between Autumn 2017 and Autumn 2019. A panel Tobit model with control function approach is implemented to identify determinants of antibiotic consumption, where variables studied include farm, farmer, and county characteristics as well as weather variables. The overall quantity of prescribed antibiotics has been stable but with seasonal fluctuations and a shift away from critically important antibiotics used. Biosecurity factors such as livestock farm density in a county and pigs per farm are shown to be important drivers of antibiotic consumption. In addition, the number of cold days within a season increases antibiotic consumption but precipitation and the number of hot days have no significant effect.

Possible Consequences of Climate Change on Survival, Productivity and Reproductive Performance, and Welfare of Himalayan Yak (Bos grunniens)

Simple Summary

Climate change is a global issue, with a wide range of ecosystems being affected by changing climatic conditions including the Himalaya. Yak are exquisitely adapted to the high-altitude conditions of the Himalaya and are thus highly likely to be affected by climate change. This paper reviews the evidence of how the reported impacts of climate change on the environment and ecosystem of the Himalaya are affecting the survival, productivity and welfare of Himalayan Yak. This review identified that we do not know how big the impact of climate change is on yak as very few papers have measured that impact and, in many cases, potentially climate-change-related effects (such as changes in feed supply) are principally driven by human factors.

Abstract

Yak are adapted to the extreme cold, low oxygen, and high solar radiation of the Himalaya. Traditionally, they are kept at high altitude pastures during summer, moving lower in the winter. This system is highly susceptible to climate change, which has increased ambient temperatures, altered rainfall patterns and increased the occurrence of natural disasters. Changes in temperature and precipitation reduced the yield and productivity of alpine pastures, principally because the native plant species are being replaced by less useful shrubs and weeds. The impact of climate change on yak is likely to be mediated through heat stress, increased contact with other species, especially domestic cattle, and alterations in feed availability. Yak have a very low temperature humidity index (52 vs. 72 for cattle) and a narrow thermoneutral range (5–13 °C), so climate change has potentially exposed yak to heat stress in summer and winter. Heat stress is likely to affect both reproductive performance and milk production, but we lack the data to quantify such effects. Increased contact with other species, especially domestic cattle, is likely to increase disease risk. This is likely to be exacerbated by other climate-change-associated factors, such as increases in vector-borne disease, because of increases in vector ranges, and overcrowding associated with reduced pasture availability. However, lack of baseline yak disease data means it is difficult to quantify these changes in disease risk and the few papers claiming to have identified such increases do not provide robust evidence of increased diseases. The reduction in feed availability in traditional pastures may be thought to be the most obvious impact of climate change on yak; however, it is clear that such a reduction is not solely due to climate change, with socio-economic factors likely being more important. This review has highlighted the large potential negative impact of climate change on yak, and the lack of data quantifying that impact. More research on the impact of climate change in yak is needed. Attention also needs to be paid to developing mitigating strategies, which may include changes in the traditional system such as providing shelter and supplementary feed and, in marginal areas, increased use of yak–cattle hybrids.

Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change

It is relatively well accepted that climate change can affect human pathogenic diseases; however, the full extent of this risk remains poorly quantified. Here we carried out a systematic search for empirical examples about the impacts of ten climatic hazards sensitive to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on each known human pathogenic disease. We found that 58% (that is, 218 out of 375) of infectious diseases confronted by humanity worldwide have been at some point aggravated by climatic hazards; 16% were at times diminished. Empirical cases revealed 1,006 unique pathways in which climatic hazards, via different transmission types, led to pathogenic diseases. The human pathogenic diseases and transmission pathways aggravated by climatic hazards are too numerous for comprehensive societal adaptations, highlighting the urgent need to work at the source of the problem: reducing GHG emissions.

A Bayesian inference approach to quantify average pathogen loads in farmyard manure and slurry using open-source Irish datasets

Farm-to-fork quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRA) typically start with a preliminary estimate of initial concentration (C_initial) of microorganism loading at farm level, consisting of an initial estimate of prevalence (P) and the resulting pathogen levels in animal faeces. An average estimation of the initial concentration of pathogens can be achieved by combining P estimates in animal populations and the levels of pathogens in colonised animals' faeces and resulting cumulative levels in herd farmyard manure and slurry (FYM&S). In the present study, 14 years of data were collated and assessed using a Bayesian inference loop to assess the likely P of pathogens. In this regard, historical and current survey data exists on P estimates for a number of pathogens, including Cryptosporidium parvum, Mycobacterium avium subspecies paratuberculosis (MAP), Salmonella spp., Clostridium spp., Campylobacter spp., pathogenic E. coli, and Listeria monocytogenes in several species (cattle, pigs, and sheep) in Ireland. The results revealed that Cryptosporidium spp. has potentially the highest mean P (P_mean) (25.93%), followed by MAP (15.68%) and Campylobacter spp. (8.80%) for cattle. The P_mean of E. coli is highest (7.42%) in pigs, while the P_mean of Clostridium spp. in sheep was estimated to be 7.94%. C_initial for Cryptosporidium spp., MAP., Salmonella spp., Clostridium spp., and Campylobacter spp. in cattle faeces were derived with an average of 2.69, 4.38, 4.24, 3.46, and 3.84 log₁₀ MPN g ^-1, respectively. Average C_initial of Cryptosporidium spp., Salmonella spp., Clostridium spp., and E. coli in pig slurry was estimated as 1.27, 3.12, 3.02, and 4.48 log₁₀ MPN g ^-1, respectively. It was only possible to calculate the average C_initial of Listeria monocytogenes in sheep manure as 1.86 log₁₀ MPN g ^-1. This study creates a basis for future farm-to-fork risk assessment models to base initial pathogen loading values for animal faeces and enhance risk assessment efforts.

Modeling the Potential Future Distribution of Anthrax Outbreaks under Multiple Climate Change Scenarios for Kenya

The climate is changing, and such changes are projected to cause global increase in the prevalence and geographic ranges of infectious diseases such as anthrax. There is limited knowledge in the tropics with regards to expected impacts of climate change on anthrax outbreaks. We determined the future distribution of anthrax in Kenya with representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 for year 2055. Ecological niche modelling (ENM) of boosted regression trees (BRT) was applied in predicting the potential geographic distribution of anthrax for current and future climatic conditions. The models were fitted with presence-only anthrax occurrences (n = 178) from historical archives (2011-2017), sporadic outbreak surveys (2017-2018), and active surveillance (2019-2020). The selected environmental variables in order of importance included rainfall of wettest month, mean precipitation (February, October, December, July), annual temperature range, temperature seasonality, length of longest dry season, potential evapotranspiration and slope. We found a general anthrax risk areal expansion i.e., current, 36,131 km2, RCP 4.5, 40,012 km2, and RCP 8.5, 39,835 km2. The distribution exhibited a northward shift from current to future. This prediction of the potential anthrax distribution under changing climates can inform anticipatory measures to mitigate future anthrax risk.

Spatial and temporal distribution of Culicoides species in the New England region of New South Wales, Australia between 1990 and 2018

Culicoides are one of the smallest hematophagous flies measuring 1–5 mm in size with only females seeking blood for egg development. The present study investigated spatio-temporal distribution of Culicoides species trapped between 1990 and 2018 at 13 sites in the New England region of NSW, Australia using automated light traps. Trapping locations were divided into three subregions (tablelands, slopes and plains). Nineteen Culicoides species were identified. Culicoides marksi and C. austropalpalis were the most abundant and widespread species. Culicoides brevitarsis, the principal vector of livestock diseases in New South Wales comprised 2.9% of the total catch and was detected in 12 of the 13 locations in the study. Abundance as determined by Log₁₀Culicoides count per trapping event for the eight most abundant species did not vary significantly with season but trended towards higher counts in summer for C. marksi (P = 0.09) and C. austropalpalis (P = 0.05). Significant geographic variation in abundance was observed for C. marksi, C. austropalpalis and C. dycei with counts decreasing with increasing altitude from the plains to the slopes and tablelands. Culicoides victoriae exhibited the reverse trend in abundance (P = 0.08). Greater abundance during the warmer seasons and at lower altitudes for C. marksi and C. austropalpalis was indicative of temperature and rainfall dependence in this region with moderate summer dominance in rainfall. The Shannon-Wiener diversity index of species was higher on the tablelands (H = 1.59) than the slopes (H = 1.33) and plains (H = 1.08) with evenness indices of 0.62, 0.46 and 0.39 respectively. Culicoides species on the tablelands were more diverse than on the slopes and plains where C. marksi and C. austropalpalis dominated. The temporal and spatial variation in abundance, diversity and evenness of species reported in this diverse region of Australia provides additional insight into Culicoides as pests and disease vectors and may contribute to future modelling studies.

Financial Impacts of Liver Fluke on Livestock Farms Under Climate Change-A Farm Level Assessment

Liver fluke infection (fascioliasis) is a parasitic disease which affects the health and welfare of ruminants. It is a concern for the livestock industry and is considered as a growing threat to the industry because changing climatic conditions are projected to be more favorable to increased frequency and intensity of liver fluke outbreaks. Recent reports highlighted that the incidence and geographic range of liver fluke has increased in the UK over the last decade and estimated to increase the average risk of liver fluke in the UK due to increasing temperature and rainfall. This paper explores financial impacts of the disease with and without climate change effects on Scottish livestock farms using a farm-level economic model. The model is based on farming system analysis and uses linear programming technique to maximize farm net profit within farm resources. Farm level data from a sample of 160 Scottish livestock farms is used under a no disease baseline scenario and two disease scenarios (with and without climate change). These two disease scenarios are compared with the baseline scenario to estimate the financial impact of the disease at farm levels. The results suggest a 12% reduction in net profit on an average dairy farm compared to 6% reduction on an average beef farm under standard disease conditions. The losses increase by 2-fold on a dairy farm and 6-fold on a beef farm when climate change effects are included with disease conditions on farms. There is a large variability within farm groups with profitable farms incurring relatively lesser economic losses than non-profitable farms. There is a substantial increase in number of vulnerable farms both in dairy (+20%) and beef farms (+27%) under the disease alongside climate change conditions.

Potential risk factors of swine erysipelas outbreak in Northeast Mainland China

Swine erysipelas is a common infectious disease that affects the pig-breeding industry. The purpose of this study was to elucidate the risk factors and their role in the prevalence of swine erysipelas so that one may be able to better prevent and control the swine erysipelas outbreaks in Northeast China. Using spatial clusters, the study area was divided into two parts: South Central Mainland China (hot spots) and Northeast Mainland China (potential outbreak areas). We investigated a total of 31 environmental factors and used the lasso regression and k-fold cross-validation methods to determine the main factors involved. Seven risk factors were determined to have a major impact on swine erysipelas. Multiple logistic regression was used to examine the contribution of these seven risk factors to the outbreak from 2008 to 2018, in the two research regions. In South Central Mainland China, where swine erysipelas was most prevalent, the extreme maximum temperature [OR = 1.143 (95%CI: 1.032-1.342)], total precipitation [OR = 2.298 (95%CI: 1.410-5.112)] and precipitation ≥0.1 mm [OR = 2.396 (95%CI: 1.329-5.941)] exhibited positive effects. The maximum wind speed [OR = 0.550 (95%CI: 0.303-0.775)] and concentration of O3-8H-90 per [OR = 0.876 (95%CI: 0.747-0.980)] exhibited negative effects. Summer was the main season for the erysipelas epidemic in South Central Mainland China. In Northeast China, only the total precipitation [OR = 1.048 (95%CI: 0.900-0.989)] was positively correlated with the prevalence of swine erysipelas, whereas the other factors were not significant. There was no obvious seasonal feature for the epidemic. Through the comparison and analysis of risk factors between the two research regions, more attention should be given to the impacts of high temperature and precipitation on the swine erysipelas epidemic in Northeast China.

Flooding on Beef and Swine Farms: A Scoping Review of Effects in the Midwestern United States

BACKGROUND

Increasing uncertainty and variability in weather due to climate change puts enormous stress on the sustainability of agricultural communities in several parts of the continental United States. Rural agriculture-based communities, such as those in North Carolina, Nebraska, and Illinois are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of flooding. These extreme weather events affect many animal facilities, and flooding can cause long-term impacts on animal health and productivity.

OBJECTIVES

This scoping review investigated the potential short- and long-term ramifications of flooding on beef cattle and swine farms with theoretical locations in the Midwestern U.S. The goal of this review is to create a concept map to identify research gaps related to efforts to support those animals and peoples ravaged by floods. This was accomplished by performing a scoping review using search terms "beef OR swine AND flood" to assess direct effects and then "beef OR swine AND direct effect" to evaluate secondary and tertiary effects.

RESULTS

Our findings were based on a total of 89 peer-reviewed publications, with 50 publications relating to beef cattle, 24 relating to swine, and 15 containing information applicable to both. On beef farms, the effects of flooding can be broad and long-lasting. The short-term risks of flooding are reasonably well-understood, including the comingling of unfamiliar cattle, nutritional restriction, and disease transmission. However, long-term impacts, including potential effects on reproduction, nutrition, and carcass quality, have been less studied. In particular, further research is needed on mold species that contaminate hay post-flood, the effect of moldy hay ingestion on cattle, and the effects of heavy metal consumption on cattle and consumers. Little research is available regarding the effects of flooding on swine farms, likely due to the highly intensive nature of swine operations. In general, swine farms suffer from acute infectious diseases and biosecurity risks after flooding events.

CONCLUSIONS

The potential ramifications of flooding on livestock farms differ among farm operations. Beef farms should prepare for long-term impacts on nutrition and reproduction, while swine farms should prepare for short-term impacts on biosecurity.

The Expectations and Challenges of Wildlife Disease Research in the Era of Genomics: Forecasting with a Horizon Scan-like Exercise

The outbreak and transmission of disease-causing pathogens are contributing to the unprecedented rate of biodiversity decline. Recent advances in genomics have coalesced into powerful tools to monitor, detect, and reconstruct the role of pathogens impacting wildlife populations. Wildlife researchers are thus uniquely positioned to merge ecological and evolutionary studies with genomic technologies to exploit unprecedented "Big Data" tools in disease research; however, many researchers lack the training and expertise required to use these computationally intensive methodologies. To address this disparity, the inaugural "Genomics of Disease in Wildlife" workshop assembled early to mid-career professionals with expertise across scientific disciplines (e.g., genomics, wildlife biology, veterinary sciences, and conservation management) for training in the application of genomic tools to wildlife disease research. A horizon scanning-like exercise, an activity to identify forthcoming trends and challenges, performed by the workshop participants identified and discussed 5 themes considered to be the most pressing to the application of genomics in wildlife disease research: 1) "Improving communication," 2) "Methodological and analytical advancements," 3) "Translation into practice," 4) "Integrating landscape ecology and genomics," and 5) "Emerging new questions." Wide-ranging solutions from the horizon scan were international in scope, itemized both deficiencies and strengths in wildlife genomic initiatives, promoted the use of genomic technologies to unite wildlife and human disease research, and advocated best practices for optimal use of genomic tools in wildlife disease projects. The results offer a glimpse of the potential revolution in human and wildlife disease research possible through multi-disciplinary collaborations at local, regional, and global scales.

Influence of temperature on prevalence of health and welfare conditions in pigs: time-series analysis of pig abattoir inspection data in England and Wales

The prevalence of many diseases in pigs displays seasonal distributions. Despite growing concerns about the impacts of climate change, we do not yet have a good understanding of the role that weather factors play in explaining such seasonal patterns. In this study, national and county-level aggregated abattoir inspection data were assessed for England and Wales during 2010–2015. Seasonally-adjusted relationships were characterised between weekly ambient maximum temperature and the prevalence of both respiratory conditions and tail biting detected at slaughter. The prevalence of respiratory conditions showed cyclical annual patterns with peaks in the summer months and troughs in the winter months each year. However, there were no obvious associations with either high or low temperatures. The prevalence of tail biting generally increased as temperatures decreased, but associations were not supported by statistical evidence: across all counties there was a relative risk of 1.028 (95% CI 0.776–1.363) for every 1 °C fall in temperature. Whilst the seasonal patterns observed in this study are similar to those reported in previous studies, the lack of statistical evidence for an explicit association with ambient temperature may possibly be explained by the lack of information on date of disease onset. There is also the possibility that other time-varying factors not investigated here may be driving some of the seasonal patterns.

Modeling the global distribution of Culicoides imicola: an Ensemble approach

Culicoides imicola is a midge species serving as vector for a number of viral diseases of livestock, including Bluetongue, and African Horse Sickness. C. imicola is also known to transmit Schmallenberg virus experimentally. Environmental and demographic factors may impose rapid changes on the global distribution of C. imicola and aid introduction into new areas. The aim of this study is to predict the global distribution of C. imicola using an ensemble modeling approach by combining climatic, livestock distribution and land cover covariates, together with a comprehensive global dataset of geo-positioned occurrence points for C. imicola. Thirty individual models were generated by ‘biomod2’, with 21 models scoring a true skill statistic (TSS) >0.8. These 21 models incorporated weighted runs from eight of ten algorithms and were used to create a final ensemble model. The ensemble model performed very well (TSS = 0.898 and ROC = 0.991) and indicated high environmental suitability for C. imicola in the tropics and subtropics. The habitat suitability for C. imicola spans from South Africa to southern Europe and from southern USA to southern China. The distribution of C. imicola is mainly constrained by climatic factors. In the ensemble model, mean annual minimum temperature had the highest overall contribution (42.9%), followed by mean annual maximum temperature (21.1%), solar radiation (13.6%), annual precipitation (11%), livestock distribution (6.2%), vapor pressure (3.4%), wind speed (0.8%), and land cover (0.1%). The present study provides the most up-to-date predictive maps of the potential distributions of C. imicola and should be of great value for decision making at global and regional scales.

A survey on zoo mortality over a 12-year period in Italy

Background

The zoo is a unique environment in which to study animals. Zoos have a long history of research into aspects of animal biology, even if this was not the primary purpose for which they were established. The data collected from zoo animals can have a great biological relevance and it can tell us more about what these animals are like outside the captive environment. In order to ensure the health of all captive animals, it is important to perform a post-mortem examination on all the animals that die in captivity.

Methods

The causes of mortality of two hundred and eighty two mammals which died between 2004 and 2015 in three different Italian zoos (a Biopark, a Safari Park and a private conservation center) have been investigated.

Results

Post mortem findings have been evaluated reporting the cause of death, zoo type, year and animal category. The animals frequently died from infectious diseases, in particular the causes of death in ruminants were mostly related to gastro-intestinal pathologies. pulmonary diseases were also very common in each of the zoos in the study. Moreover, death was sometimes attributable to traumas, as a result of fighting between conspecifics or during mating. Cases of genetic diseases and malformations have also been registered.

Discussion

This research was a confirmation of how conservation, histology and pathology are all connected through individual animals. These areas of expertise are extremely important to ensure the survival of rare and endangered species and to learn more about their morphological and physiological conditions. They are also useful to control pathologies, parasites and illnesses that can have a great impact on the species in captivity. Finally, this study underlines the importance of a close collaboration between veterinarians, zoo biologists and pathologists. Necropsy findings can help conservationists to determine how to support wild animal populations.

PLANETARY GRAND CHALLENGES: A CALL FOR INTERDISCIPLINARY PARTNERSHIPS

Universities have traditionally been places where individual scholars work on individual topics, in individual disciplines, with individual funding. Even though large research institutions include all the major disciplines, faculty and students remain in their schools or colleges, rarely crossing the campus to interact. Matters do not improve once knowledge is generated. Each discipline has its own journals, its own conferences, and its own professional organizations. The academy was designed to support unparalleled expertise in specialized knowledge. However, universities are beginning to realize that the greatest challenges we face are systems problems and can only be solved by systems thinking and systems solutions. Climate change, antibiotic resistance, water scarcity, and unsustainable population growth are just a few of the planetary health crises that require interdisciplinary partnerships to solve. Fortunately, we are beginning to see early signs of a shift toward, and even normalization of, interdisciplinary collaboration. In fact, some national grants require team members from different fields as a stipulation for funding. Interdisciplinary research permits cross-field benefits in which the synergy of two or more knowledge sets is greater than the sum of its parts. Innovation increases and previously elusive solutions become possible. The field of partnership studies closely aligns with the vision and mission of interdisciplinarity and offers a philosophical framework to guide teaching and research.

Impact of climate change on occupational health and productivity: a systematic literature review focusing on workplace heat

Background:

With climate change, mean annual air temperatures are getting hotter and extreme weather events will become more and more common in most parts of the world.

Objectives:

As part of the EU funded project HEAT-SHIELD we conducted a systematic review to summarize the epidemiological evidence of the effects of global warming-related heat exposure on workers’ health and productivity.

Methods:

Three separate searches, focused, respectively, on: i) heat-related illness (HRI), cardiovascular, respiratory and kidney diseases; ii) traumatic injuries; and iii) vector-borne diseases or vectors distribution, were conducted in PubMed. EMBASE was also consulted to retrieve relevant studies focused on the health effects of climate change. A fourth search strategy to assess the effects on work productivity was conducted both in PubMed and in the SCOPUS database.

Results:

A significant proportion of studies reported findings regarding the Mesoamerican nephropathy issue. This is a disease occurring especially among young and middle-aged male sugarcane workers, without conventional risk factors for chronic kidney disease. For injuries, there is a reversed U-shaped exposure-response relationship between Tmax and overall daily injury claims. Outdoor workers are at increased risk of vector-borne infectious diseases, as a positive correlation between higher air temperatures and current or future expansion of the habitat of vectors is being observed. As for productivity, agriculture and construction are the most studied sectors; a day with temperatures exceeding 32°C can reduce daily labour supply in exposed sectors by up to 14%.

Conclusions:

The present findings should inform development of further research and related health policies in the EU and beyond with regard to protecting working people from the effects of workplace heat during climate change.

Subterranean Mammals: Reservoirs of Infection or Overlooked Sentinels of Anthropogenic Environmental Soiling?

Global reports of emergent pathogens in humans have intensified efforts to identify wildlife reservoirs. Subterranean mammals, such as bathyergid mole rats, are largely overlooked, despite their high-level exposure to soil-dwelling microbes. Initial assessment of bathyergid reservoir potential was determined using a broad-range 16S rRNA PCR approach, which revealed an 83% PCR-positivity for the 234 bathyergid lung samples evaluated. The presence of the Bacillus cereus complex, a ubiquitous bacterial assemblage, containing pathogenic and zoonotic species, was confirmed through nucleotide sequencing, prior to group- and species-specific PCR sequencing. The latter allowed for enhanced placement and prevalence estimations of Bacillus in four bathyergid species sampled across a range of transformed landscapes in the Western Cape Province, South Africa. Two novel Bacillus strains (1 and 2) identified on the basis of the concatenated 16S rRNA-groEL-yeaC data set (2066 nucleotides in length), clustered with B. mycoides (ATCC 6462) and B. weihenstephanensis (WSBC 10204), within a well-supported monophyletic lineage. The levels of co-infection, evaluated with a groEL strain-specific assay, developed specifically for this purpose, were high (71%). The overall Bacillus presence of 17.95% (ranging from 0% for Georychus capensis to 45.35% for Bathyergus suillus) differed significantly between host species (χ² = 69.643; df = 3; P < 0.05), being significantly higher in bathyergids sampled near an urban informal settlement (χ² = 70.245; df = 3; P < 0.05). The results highlight the sentinel potential of soil-dwelling mammals for monitoring anthropogenically introduced, opportunistic pathogens and the threats they pose to vulnerable communities, particularly in the developing world.

Climate conditions associated with the occurrence of antimicrobial and macrocyclic lactone residues in bulk tank milk

ABSTRACT The present study aimed to identify the climate condition parameters that are associated with the occurrence of antimicrobial and macrocyclic lactone residues in bulk tank milk using a multivariate principal components analysis (PCA). A total of 132 raw milk samples were collected at dairy farms in Minas Gerais State in Brazil and analyzed for 35 analytes, comprising macrocyclic lactones and antibacterials, using liquid chromatography coupled with mass spectrometry in tandem mode spectrometry. Of the 132 samples, 34 (25.76%) bulk tank milk samples were positive for at least one analyte. PCA showed that antimicrobial residues in bulk tank milk occurred less frequently on days with a higher average temperature, maximum temperature and temperature-humidity index. In contrast, relative humidity was inversely associated with antimicrobial residues in raw milk. The PCA showed that daily milk production was also related to macrocyclic lactone residues, while rainfall showed an inverse association. Thus, some climate conditions, such as average temperature, maximum temperature and temperature-humidity index, can predict the moments with lower risk of occurrence of antimicrobial residues in bulk tank milk, in contrast to relative humidity. Furthermore, the risk of macrocyclic lactone residues in bulk tank milk was higher in months with less rainfall.

Regional level risk factors associated with the occurrence of African swine fever in West and East Africa

Background

African swine fever (ASF) causes severe socio-economic impacts due to high mortality and trade restrictions. Many risk factors of ASF have been identified at farm level. However, understanding the risk factors, especially wild suid hosts, determining ASF transmission at regional level remains limited.

Methods

Based on ASF outbreak data in domestic pigs during 2006–2014, we here tested, separately for West and East Africa, which risk factors were linked to ASF presence at a regional level, using generalized linear mixed models.

Results

Our results show that ASF infections in the preceding year was an important predictor for ASF presence in both West and East Africa. Both pig density and human density were positively associated with ASF presence in West Africa. In East Africa, ASF outbreaks in domestic pigs were also correlated with higher percentages of areas occupied by giant forest hogs and by high-tick-risk areas.

Conclusions

Our results suggest that regional ASF risk in East Africa and in West Africa were associated with different sets of risk factors. Regional ASF risk in West Africa mainly followed the domestic cycle, whereas the sylvatic cycle may influence regional ASF risk in East Africa. With these findings, we contribute to the better understanding of the risk factors of ASF occurrence at regional scales that may aid the implementation of effective control measures.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1953-z) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Climate conditions associated with the occurrence of pyrethroid residues in bulk milk tank

ABSTRACT The present study attempted to identify climate conditions that are associated with the occurrence of pyrethroid residues using a multivariate principal component analysis (PCA). A total of 132 raw milk samples were collected from dairy farms in Minas Gerais State - Brazil and analyzed for seven analytes using gas chromatography with electron capture detection. Of the 132 milk samples, pyrethroid residues were identified in 14 (10.6%) milk samples, of which 12 (9.1%) and two (1.5%) milk samples had the identification of cypermethrin and deltamethrin, respectively. From those samples, nine (6.8%) milk samples were regarded as non-compliant for cypermethrin with this analyte concentration above the maximum residue limits set by Brazilian legislation. A PCA assessing pyrethroid residues in bulk tank milk demonstrated that the average temperature and the Temperature-Humidity Index were associated with pyrethroids residues in bulk milk tank, although the relative humidity was inversely correlated. Thus, the data analysis indicated that the pyrethrid residues associated with some climate conditions can predict the moments with higher risk of occurrence of pyrethroid residues in bulk tank milk.

The emerging threats of climate change on tropical coastal ecosystem services, public health, local economies and livelihood sustainability of small islands: Cumulative impacts and synergies

Climate change has significantly impacted tropical ecosystems critical for sustaining local economies and community livelihoods at global scales. Coastal ecosystems have largely declined, threatening the principal source of protein, building materials, tourism-based revenue, and the first line of defense against storm swells and sea level rise (SLR) for small tropical islands. Climate change has also impacted public health (i.e., altered distribution and increased prevalence of allergies, water-borne, and vector-borne diseases). Rapid human population growth has exacerbated pressure over coupled social-ecological systems, with concomitant non-sustainable impacts on natural resources, water availability, food security and sovereignty, public health, and quality of life, which should increase vulnerability and erode adaptation and mitigation capacity. This paper examines cumulative and synergistic impacts of climate change in the challenging context of highly vulnerable small tropical islands. Multiple adaptive strategies of coupled social-ecological ecosystems are discussed. Multi-level, multi-sectorial responses are necessary for adaptation to be successful.

Pattern of antimicrobial usage in livestock animals in south-western Nigeria: The need for alternative plans

Resistance to antibiotics has continued to increase, placing future animal and human disease management in real danger. The developing countries characterised by widespread indiscriminate antibiotic use and in which ‘third-generation’ antibiotics are not readily available or affordable are the worst affected. A 3-year (2010–2012) retrospective survey of antibiotic usage in livestock production in three selected states of south-western Nigeria was conducted. Data obtained from eight purposively selected licensed veterinary pharmaceutical sales establishments in the area, based on keeping detailed sales records for the study period, were analysed using Stata Version 12. Results showed that tetracyclines (33.6%), fluoroquinolones (26.5%) and beta-lactams/aminoglycosides (20.4%) constituted the majority of the antibiotics used over the 3 years. The differences in the quantities of antibiotic types used within each antimicrobial class were statistically significant for tetracyclines (F = 59.87; p < 0.0001) and fluoroquinolones (F = 43.97; p < 0.0001) but not for beta-lactams/aminoglycosides (F = 3.21; p = 0.148). Furthermore, antibiotic consumption increased by 40.4% between 2010 and 2012. Although statistically insignificant (F = 0.277; p = 0.762), the increasing trend across the years was at rates of 23.5% between 2010 and 2011 and 13.8% between 2011 and 2012. In addition, the findings show a significantly higher consumption rate (t = 15.21; df = 5; p < 0.0001) during the rainy (52.5%) than the dry (47.5%) seasons. The current increasing trend in antibiotic usage holds a serious danger for the future and therefore calls for alternative plans to safeguard future livestock production, food security and human health. This becomes more imperative considering emerging resistance against tetracyclines and fluoroquinolones, the foremost remedies for livestock diseases in most developing countries.

Utilization of farm animal genetic resources in a changing agro-ecological environment in the Nordic countries

Livestock production is the most important component of northern European agriculture and contributes to and will be affected by climate change. Nevertheless, the role of farm animal genetic resources in the adaptation to new agro-ecological conditions and mitigation of animal production’s effects on climate change has been inadequately discussed despite there being several important associations between animal genetic resources and climate change issues. The sustainability of animal production systems and future food security require access to a wide diversity of animal genetic resources. There are several genetic questions that should be considered in strategies promoting adaptation to climate change and mitigation of environmental effects of livestock production. For example, it may become important to choose among breeds and even among farm animal species according to their suitability to a future with altered production systems. Some animals with useful phenotypes and genotypes may be more useful than others in the changing environment. Robust animal breeds with the potential to adapt to new agro-ecological conditions and tolerate new diseases will be needed. The key issue in mitigation of harmful greenhouse gas effects induced by livestock production is the reduction of methane (CH₄) emissions from ruminants. There are differences in CH₄ emissions among breeds and among individual animals within breeds that suggest a potential for improvement in the trait through genetic selection. Characterization of breeds and individuals with modern genomic tools should be applied to identify breeds that have genetically adapted to marginal conditions and to get critical information for breeding and conservation programs for farm animal genetic resources. We conclude that phenotyping and genomic technologies and adoption of new breeding approaches, such as genomic selection introgression, will promote breeding for useful characters in livestock species.

The risk of Rift Valley fever virus introduction and establishment in the United States and European Union

Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) is an arthropod-borne disease resulting in severe morbidity and mortality in both human and ruminant populations. First identified in Kenya in 1930, the geographical range of RVFV has been largely constrained to the African continent, yet has recently spread to new regions, and is identified as a priority disease with potential for geographic emergence. We present a systematic literature review assessing the potential for RVFV introduction and establishment in the United States (US) and European Union (EU). Viable pathways for the introduction of RVFV include: transport of virus-carrying vectors, importation of viremic hosts and intentional entry of RVFV as a biological weapon. It is generally assumed that the risk of RVFV introduction into the US or EU is low. We argue that the risk of sporadic introduction is likely high, though currently an insufficient proportion of such introductions coincide with optimal environmental conditions. Future global trends may increase the likelihood of risk factors for RVFV spread.

Using Bayesian networks to explore the role of weather as a potential determinant of disease in pigs

Many pathogens are sensitive to climatic variables and this is reflected in their seasonality of occurrence and transmission. The identification of environmental conditions that influence disease occurrence can be subtle, particularly considering their complex interdependencies in addition to those relationships between climate and disease. Statistical treatment of environmental variables is often dependent on their correlations and thus descriptions of climate are often restricted to means rather than accounting for the more precise aspects (including mean, maximum, minimum, variability). Here we utilize a novel multivariate statistical modelling approach, additive Bayesian network (ABN) analyses, to identify the inter-linkages of different weather variables to better capture short-term environmental conditions that are important drivers of disease. We present a case study that explores weather as a driver of disease in livestock systems. We utilize quality assurance health scheme data on ten major diseases of pigs from 875 finishing pig herds distributed across the United Kingdom over 7 years (2005-2011). We examine the relationship between the occurrence of these pathologies and contemporary weather conditions measured by local meteorological stations. All ten pathologies were associated with at least 2 other pathologies (maximum 6). Three pathologies were associated directly with temperature variables: papular dermatitis, enzootic pneumonia and milk spots. Latitude was strongly associated with multiple pathologies, though associations with longitude were eliminated when clustering for repeated observations of farms was assessed. The identification of relationships between climatic factors and different (potentially related) diseases offers a more comprehensive insight into the complex role of seasonal drivers and herd health status than traditional analytical methods.

Climate change and Occupational Health and Safety in a temperate climate: potential impacts and research priorities in Quebec, Canada

The potential impacts of climate change (CC) on Occupational Health and Safety (OHS) have been studied a little in tropical countries, while they received no attention in northern industrialized countries with a temperate climate. This work aimed to establish an overview of the potential links between CC and OHS in those countries and to determine research priorities for Quebec, Canada. A narrative review of the scientific literature (2005-2010) was presented to a working group of international and national experts and stakeholders during a workshop held in 2010. The working group was invited to identify knowledge gaps, and a modified Delphi method helped prioritize research avenues. This process highlighted five categories of hazards that are likely to impact OHS in northern industrialized countries: heat waves/increased temperatures, air pollutants, UV radiation, extreme weather events, vector-borne/zoonotic diseases. These hazards will affect working activities related to natural resources (i.e. agriculture, fishing and forestry) and may influence the socioeconomic context (built environment and green industries), thus indirectly modifying OHS. From this consensus approach, three categories of research were identified: 1) Knowledge acquisition on hazards, target populations and methods of adaptation; 2) Surveillance of diseases/accidents/occupational hazards; and 3) Development of new occupational adaptation strategies.

Climate variability and outbreaks of infectious diseases in Europe

Several studies provide evidence of a link between vector-borne disease outbreaks and El Niño driven climate anomalies. Less investigated are the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here, we test its impact on outbreak occurrences of 13 infectious diseases over Europe during the last fifty years, controlling for potential bias due to increased surveillance and detection. NAO variation statistically influenced the outbreak occurrence of eleven of the infectious diseases. Seven diseases were associated with winter NAO positive phases in northern Europe, and therefore with above-average temperatures and precipitation. Two diseases were associated with the summer or spring NAO negative phases in northern Europe, and therefore with below-average temperatures and precipitation. Two diseases were associated with summer positive or negative NAO phases in southern Mediterranean countries. These findings suggest that there is potential for developing early warning systems, based on climatic variation information, for improved outbreak control and management.

Rapid molecular detection methods for arboviruses of livestock of importance to northern Europe

Arthropod-borne viruses (arboviruses) have been responsible for some of the most explosive epidemics of emerging infectious diseases over the past decade. Their impact on both human and livestock populations has been dramatic. The early detection either through surveillance or diagnosis of virus will be a critical feature in responding and resolving the emergence of such epidemics in the future. Although some of the most important emerging arboviruses are human pathogens, this paper aims to highlight those diseases that primarily affect livestock, although many are zoonotic and some occasionally cause human mortality. This paper also highlights the molecular detection methods specific to each virus and identifies those emerging diseases for which a rapid detection methods are not yet developed.

Modelling the impact of climate change on spatial patterns of disease risk: sheep blowfly strike by Lucilia sericata in Great Britain

Understanding the spatial scale and temporal pattern of disease incidence is a fundamental prerequisite for the development of appropriate management and intervention strategies. It is particularly critical, given the need to understand the elevated risks linked to climate change, to allow the most likely changes in the distribution of parasites and disease vectors to be predicted under a range of climate change scenarios. Using statistical models, the spatial distribution and climatic correlates of a range of parasites and diseases have been mapped previously, but their development into dynamic, predictive tools is less common. The aim of the work described here, was to use a species distribution model to characterise the environmental determinants of the monthly occurrence of ovine cutaneous myiasis (blowfly strike) by Lucilia sericata, the most frequent primary agent of northern European myiasis, and to then use this model to describe the potential spatial changes that might be expected in response to predicted climate change in Great Britain. The model predicts that the range of elevated temperatures predicted by current climate change scenarios will result in an increase in the risk of strike and an elongated blowfly season. However, even for the most rapid warming scenario predictions over the next 70 years, strike is not predicted to occur throughout the winter. Nevertheless, in this latter case, parts of central and southern England are likely to become too hot and dry for strike by L. sericata, to persist in mid-summer. Under these conditions, it is possible that other, more pathogenic Mediterranean agents of myiasis, such as Wolfhartia magnifica, could potentially replace L. sericata. Where the phenology of strike is altered by climate change, as predicted here, significant changes to the timing and frequency of parasite treatments and husbandry practices, such as shearing, will be required to manage the problem. The results suggest that the modelling approach adopted here could be usefully applied to a range of disease systems.

Assessment of a novel real-time pan-flavivirus RT-polymerase chain reaction

Outbreaks of West Nile virus (WNV) have occurred intermittently in regions around the Mediterranean coast, and the virus may have become established in Northern Italy and Romania, with reported intermittent outbreaks in Spain, Hungary, and France. WNV has also spread rapidly throughout the Americas since its introduction into New York in 1999. This capacity to emerge in new geographical locations and to spread rapidly together with the current increase in incidence of other flaviviruses such as tick-borne encephalitis virus, dengue virus, and Usutu virus has prompted us to design a novel pan-flavivirus RT-polymerase chain reaction for the purpose of surveillance for a range of flaviviruses. The assay utilizes degenerate primers targeting the flavivirus NS5 gene (RNA-dependent RNA polymerase) and detects a range of flaviviruses, including WNV. A small panel of WNV bird samples obtained from the United States has been shown to be detected using this assay. The amplicon generated is of sufficient size to provide sequence data to confirm the identity of the virus detected and undertake limited phylogenetic analysis. Testing using this assay has shown its ability to detect a range of tick-borne flaviviruses, particularly louping ill virus that is endemic in areas of the United Kingdom. The assay has been used to survey 160 bird samples and 1000 mosquito samples from the United Kingdom and found no evidence for WNV.

Global Climate Change and Implications for Disease Emergence

The early consequences of global climate change (GCC) are well documented. However, future impacts on ecosystem health, and on the health of humans, domestic animals, and wildlife, are much less well understood. Evidence of increasing frequency of extreme weather events (the 2003 trans-European heat wave, extended droughts in Australia and South America), of geographic changes in vector-borne disease (bluetongue and hanta viruses emerging in northern Europe, dengue virus expanding in central and northern America), and of altered animal behavioral responses (changes in bird migration patterns and fishery numbers) warrants action. To make valid choices, however, practitioners and decision makers must understand what is known about GCC and what is only theory. There will be a multitude of microbial, vector, and host responses to climate change, for example, and not all organisms will respond similarly or across equal time scales. Unfortunately, for many organisms and ecosystems the scientific community has a relatively poor understanding of current effectors and balances, making it problematic to describe the current situation, let alone to validate future predictions. The need for enhanced basic research and systematic surveillance programs is obvious, but putting such programs into place is daunting. However, the threats are real and fast approaching. What is done in the next few years may be decisive, whether for the good or the ill of all.

The feasibility of developing a risk assessment for the impact of climate change on the emergence of Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever in livestock in Europe: a review

Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) is one of the most widespread of all medically important arboviruses with ticks of the Hyalomma spp. serving as the main vectors. Infection of livestock by CCHFV serves as a route of exposure to humans, as a reservoir of disease and as a route of importation. This study discusses the pathways and data requirements for a qualitative risk assessment for the emergence of CCHFV in livestock in Europe. A risk map approach is proposed based on layers that include the potential routes of release (e.g. by migrating birds carrying infected ticks) together with the main components for exposure, namely the distributions of the tick vectors, the small vertebrate host reservoirs and the livestock. A layer on landscape fragmentation serves as a surrogate for proximity of livestock to the tick cycle. Although the impact of climate change on the emergence of CCHF is not clear, comparing the distribution of risk factors in each layer currently with those predicted in the 2080s with climate change can be used to speculate how potential high-risk areas may shift. According to the risk pathway, transstadial and/or transovarial transmission in the tick vector are crucial for CCHFV spread. Vector competence and tick vector switching, however, remain critical factors for CCHFV colonization of new regions in Europe. The species of migratory bird is also an important consideration in the release assessment with greater abundance and biodiversity of ground-dwelling birds in southern Europe than in northern Europe.

Thermoregulatory behaviour affects prevalence of chytrid fungal infection in a wild population of Panamanian golden frogs

Predicting how climate change will affect disease dynamics requires an understanding of how the environment affects host-pathogen interactions. For amphibians, global declines and extinctions have been linked to a pathogenic chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis. Using a combination of body temperature measurements and disease assays conducted before and after the arrival of B. dendrobatidis, this study tested the hypothesis that body temperature affects the prevalence of infection in a wild population of Panamanian golden frogs (Atelopus zeteki). The timing of first detection of the fungus was consistent with that of a wave of epidemic infections spreading south and eastward through Central America. During the epidemic, many golden frogs modified their thermoregulatory behaviour, raising body temperatures above their normal set point. Odds of infection decreased with increasing body temperature, demonstrating that even slight environmental or behavioural changes have the potential to affect an individual's vulnerability to infection. The thermal dependency of the relationship between B. dendrobatidis and its amphibian hosts demonstrates how the progression of an epidemic can be influenced by complex interactions between host and pathogen phenotypes and the environments in which they are found.

Assessing the impact of climate change on vector-borne viruses in the EU through the elicitation of expert opinion

Expert opinion was elicited to undertake a qualitative risk assessment to estimate the current and future risks to the European Union (EU) from five vector-borne viruses listed by the World Organization for Animal Health. It was predicted that climate change will increase the risk of incursions of African horse sickness virus (AHSV), Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHFV) and Rift Valley fever virus (RVFV) into the EU from other parts of the world, with African swine fever virus (ASFV) and West Nile virus (WNV) being less affected. Currently the predicted risks of incursion were lowest for RVFV and highest for ASFV. Risks of incursion were considered for six routes of entry (namely vectors, livestock, meat products, wildlife, pets and people). Climate change was predicted to increase the risk of incursion from entry of vectors for all five viruses to some degree, the strongest effects being predicted for AHSV, CCHFV and WNV. This work will facilitate identification of appropriate risk management options in relation to adaptations to climate change.