Contrasting patterns of phenotypic plasticity in reproductive traits in two great tit (Parus major) populations

Individual variation and selection for phenotypic plasticity of laying date and clutch size across different environmental conditions in Tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor)

Several studies have emphasized that phenotypic plasticity should be a key mechanism to cope with current rapid environmental changes by allowing individuals to quickly express new adaptive phenotypes. Yet, few studies have investigated the evolutionary potential of plasticity for multiple traits simultaneously and using several different environmental variables. Here, we assess the extent of variation in, and the selection acting on phenotypic plasticity of key ecological traits, laying date, and clutch size, using five environmental variables, in a Tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) population monitored since 2004. While we found some variation among females in their mean laying date and plasticity, we found evidence of selection acting only on mean laying date. We found no variation among females in mean clutch size or plasticity, such that we could not assess selection acting on either. Our results suggest that the evolutionary potential of plasticity in the population under study is limited, especially for clutch size. More studies investigating plasticity in wild populations and incorporating multiple traits and environmental variables are needed to understand the future responses of animal populations to environmental changes.

Threatened chronotopes: can chronobiology help endangered species?

Pittendrigh and Daan's 1976 article "Pacemaker structure: A clock for all seasons" marks the foundation of modern seasonal chronobiology. It proposed the internal coincidence model comprised of a Morning (M) and Evening (E) oscillator, which are coupled but synchronized separately by dawn and dusk. It has become an attractive model to explain the seasonal adaptation of circadian rhythms. Using the example of the European hamster, this article connects the classical entrainment concept to species decline and, ultimately, conservation concepts. Seasonality of this species is well studied and circannual rhythms have been described in at least 32 parameters. The European hamster is listed as critically endangered on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) red list. Changes in the temporal structure of the environment (the chronotope) caused by climate change and light pollution might be responsible for the global decline. The article shows that classical chronobiological concepts such as the internal coincidence model (Pittendrigh and Daan Pittendrigh and Daan, J Comp Physiol [a] 106:333-355, 1976) are helpful to understand the (chronobiological) causes of the decline and can potentially support species conservation. Knowing the species' physiological limitations as well as its adaptation capacities can potentially prevent its extinction at a time when classical conservation concepts have reached their limits.

Temperature synchronizes temporal variation in laying dates across European hole-nesting passerines

Identifying the environmental drivers of variation in fitness-related traits is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. Temporal fluctuations of these environmental drivers are often synchronized at large spatial scales. Yet, whether synchronous environmental conditions can generate spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values (i.e., correlated temporal trait fluctuations across populations) is poorly understood. Using data from long-term monitored populations of blue tits (Cyanistes caeruleus, n = 31), great tits (Parus major, n = 35), and pied flycatchers (Ficedula hypoleuca, n = 20) across Europe, we assessed the influence of two local climatic variables (mean temperature and mean precipitation in February-May) on spatial synchrony in three fitness-related traits: laying date, clutch size, and fledgling number. We found a high degree of spatial synchrony in laying date but a lower degree in clutch size and fledgling number for each species. Temperature strongly influenced spatial synchrony in laying date for resident blue tits and great tits but not for migratory pied flycatchers. This is a relevant finding in the context of environmental impacts on populations because spatial synchrony in fitness-related trait values among populations may influence fluctuations in vital rates or population abundances. If environmentally induced spatial synchrony in fitness-related traits increases the spatial synchrony in vital rates or population abundances, this will ultimately increase the risk of extinction for populations and species. Assessing how environmental conditions influence spatiotemporal variation in trait values improves our mechanistic understanding of environmental impacts on populations.

Plasticity in female timing may explain earlier breeding in a North American songbird

Many species have shifted their breeding phenology in response to climate change. Identifying the magnitude of phenological shifts and whether climate-mediated selection drives these shifts is key for determining species' resilience to climate change. Birds are a strong model for studying phenological shifts due to numerous long-term research studies; however, generalities pertaining to drivers of phenological shifts will emerge only as we add study species that differ in life history and geography. We investigated 32 years of reproductive timing in a non-migratory population of dark-eyed juncos (Junco hyemalis). We predicted that plasticity in reproductive timing would allow females to breed earlier in warmer springs. We also predicted that selection would favour earlier breeding and asked whether the temperatures throughout the breeding season would predict the strength of selection. To test these predictions, we examined temporal changes in the annual median date for reproductive onset (i.e., first egg date) and we used a sliding window analysis to identify spring temperatures driving these patterns. Next, we explored plasticity in reproductive timing and asked whether selection favoured earlier breeding. Lastly, we used a sliding window analysis to identify the time during the breeding season that temperature was most associated with selection favouring earlier breeding. First egg dates occurred earlier over time and strongly covaried with April temperatures. Further, individual females that bred in more than one year, typically bred earlier in warmer Aprils, exhibiting plastic responses to April temperature. We also found significant overall selection favouring earlier breeding (i.e., higher relative fitness with earlier first egg dates) and variation in selection for earlier breeding over time. However, temperature across diverse climatic windows did not predict the strength of selection. Our findings provide further evidence for the role of phenotypic plasticity in shifting phenology in response to earlier springs. We also provide evidence for the role of selection favouring earlier breeding, regardless of temperature, thus setting the stage for adaptive changes in female breeding phenology. We suggest for multi-brooded birds that advancing first egg dates likely increases the length of the breeding season, and therefore, reproductive success.

Discovering Tolerance—A Computational Approach to Assess Abiotic Stress Tolerance in Tomato Under Greenhouse Conditions

Modern plant cultivars often possess superior growth characteristics, but within a limited range of environmental conditions. Due to climate change, crops will be exposed to distressing abiotic conditions more often in the future, out of which heat stress is used as example for this study. To support identification of tolerant germplasm and advance screening techniques by a novel multivariate evaluation method, a diversity panel of 14 tomato genotypes, comprising Mediterranean landraces of Solanum lycopersicum, the cultivar “Moneymaker” and Solanum pennellii LA0716, which served as internal references, was assessed toward their tolerance against long-term heat stress. After 5 weeks of growth, young tomato plants were exposed to either control (22/18°C) or heat stress (35/25°C) conditions for 2 weeks. Within this period, water consumption, leaf angles and leaf color were determined. Additionally, gas exchange and leaf temperature were investigated. Finally, biomass traits were recorded. The resulting multivariate dataset on phenotypic plasticity was evaluated to test the hypothesis, that more tolerant genotypes have less affected phenotypes upon stress adaptation. For this, a cluster-analysis-based approach was developed that involved a principal component analysis (PCA), dimension reduction and determination of Euclidean distances. These distances served as measure for the phenotypic plasticity upon heat stress. Statistical evaluation allowed the identification and classification of homogeneous groups consisting each of four putative more or less heat stress tolerant genotypes. The resulting classification of the internal references as “tolerant” highlights the applicability of our proposed tolerance assessment model. PCA factor analysis on principal components 1–3 which covered 76.7% of variance within the phenotypic data, suggested that some laborious measure such as the gas exchange might be replaced with the determination of leaf temperature in larger heat stress screenings. Hence, the overall advantage of the presented method is rooted in its suitability of both, planning and executing screenings for abiotic stress tolerance using multivariate phenotypic data to overcome the challenge of identifying abiotic stress tolerant plants from existing germplasms and promote sustainable agriculture for the future.

Why study plasticity in multiple traits? New hypotheses for how phenotypically plastic traits interact during development and selection

Organisms can often respond adaptively to a change in their environment through phenotypic plasticity in multiple traits, a phenomenon termed as multivariate plasticity. These different plastic responses could interact and affect each other's development as well as selection on each other, but the causes and consequences of these interactions have received relatively little attention. Here, we propose a new conceptual framework for understanding how different plastic responses can affect each other's development and why organisms should have multiple plastic responses. A plastic change in one trait could alter the phenotype of a second plastic trait by changing either the cue received by the organism (cue-mediated effect) or the response to that cue (response-mediated effect). Multivariate plasticity could benefit the organism either because the plastic responses work better when expressed together (synergy) or because each response is more effective under different environmental circumstances (complementarity). We illustrate these hypotheses with case studies, focusing on interactions between behavior and morphology, plastic traits that differ in their reversibility. Future empirical and theoretical research should investigate the consequences of these interactions for additional factors important for the evolution of plasticity, such as the limits and costs of plasticity.

Natal experience and pre-breeding environmental conditions affect lay date plasticity in Savannah Sparrows

Phenotypic plasticity allows organisms to adjust the timing of life-history events in response to environmental and demographic conditions. Shifts by individuals in the timing of breeding with respect to variation in age and temperature are well documented in nature, and these changes are known to scale to affect population dynamics. However, relatively little is known about how organisms alter phenology in response to other demographic and environmental factors. We investigated how pre-breeding temperature, breeding population density, age, and rainfall in the first month of life influenced the timing and plasticity of lay date in a population of Savannah Sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis) monitored over 33 yr (1987-2019). Females that experienced warmer pre-breeding temperatures tended to lay eggs earlier, as did older females, but breeding population density had no effect on lay date. Natal precipitation interacted with age to influence lay date plasticity, with females that experienced high precipitation levels as nestlings advancing lay dates more strongly over the course of their lives. We also found evidence for varied pace of life; females that experienced high natal precipitation had shorter lifespans and reduced fecundity, but more nesting attempts over their lifetimes. Rainfall during the nestling period increased through time, while population density and fecundity declined, suggesting that increased precipitation on the breeding grounds may be detrimental to breeding females and ultimately the viability of the population as a whole. Our results suggest that females adjust their laying date in response to pre-breeding temperature, and as they age, while presenting new evidence that environmental conditions during the natal period can affect phenological plasticity and generate downstream, population-level effects.

The effects of four decades of climate change on the breeding ecology of an avian sentinel species across a 1,500-km latitudinal gradient are stronger at high latitudes

Global warming affects breeding phenology of birds differentially with latitude, but there is contrasting evidence about how the changing climate influences the breeding of migrating songbirds at their northern breeding range. We investigate the effect of climate warming on breeding time and breeding success of European pied flycatchers Ficedula hypoleuca in Sweden during a period of 36 years using nest reports from bird ringing. To account for the latitudinal variation, we divided Sweden into three latitudinal bands (northern, intermediate, and southern). We applied a sliding window approach to find the most influential period and environment characteristics (temperature, vegetation greenness, and precipitation), using linear mixed models and model averaging. Our results show a long-term advancement of breeding time related to increasing spring temperature and vegetation greenness during a period before hatching. Northern breeders revealed a larger advancement over the years (8.3 days) compared with southern breeders (3.6 days). We observed a relatively stronger effect of temperature and greenness on breeding time in the north. Furthermore, northern birds showed an increase in breeding success over time, while birds breeding at southern and intermediate latitudes showed reduced breeding success in years with higher prehatching temperatures. Our findings with stronger environment effects on breeding time advancement in the north suggest that pied flycatchers are more responsive to weather cues at higher latitudes. Breeding time adjustment and, potentially, low competition help explain the higher long-term success observed in the north. Reduced breeding success at more southerly latitudes suggests an inability to match breeding time to very early and warm springs, a fate that with continued climate change could also be expected for pied flycatchers and other long-distance migrants at their very northern breeding range.

Lagged and dormant season climate better predict plant vital rates than climate during the growing season

Understanding the effects of climate on the vital rates (e.g., survival, development, reproduction) and dynamics of natural populations is a long-standing quest in ecology, with ever-increasing relevance in the face of climate change. However, linking climate drivers to demographic processes requires identifying the appropriate time windows during which climate influences vital rates. Researchers often do not have access to the long-term data required to test a large number of windows, and are thus forced to make a priori choices. In this study, we first synthesize the literature to assess current a priori choices employed in studies performed on 104 plant species that link climate drivers with demographic responses. Second, we use a sliding-window approach to investigate which combination of climate drivers and temporal window have the best predictive ability for vital rates of four perennial plant species that each have over a decade of demographic data (Helianthella quinquenervis, Frasera speciosa, Cylindriopuntia imbricata, and Cryptantha flava). Our literature review shows that most studies consider time windows in only the year preceding the measurement of the vital rate(s) of interest, and focus on annual or growing season temporal scales. In contrast, our sliding-window analysis shows that in only four out of 13 vital rates the selected climate drivers have time windows that align with, or are similar to, the growing season. For many vital rates, the best window lagged more than 1 year and up to 4 years before the measurement of the vital rate. Our results demonstrate that for the vital rates of these four species, climate drivers that are lagged or outside of the growing season are the norm. Our study suggests that considering climatic predictors that fall outside of the most recent growing season will improve our understanding of how climate affects population dynamics.

Effects of ambient temperatures on evolutionary potential of reproductive timing in boreal passerines

Many populations need to adapt to changing environmental conditions, such as warming climate. Changing conditions generate directional selection for traits critical for fitness. For evolutionary responses to occur, these traits need to be heritable. However, changes in environmental conditions can alter the amount of heritable variation a population expresses, making predictions about expected responses difficult. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of ambient temperatures on evolutionary potential and strength of natural selection on the timing of reproduction in two passerine birds breeding in boreal forests. Long-term data on individually marked Willow Tits Poecile montanus (1975-2018) and Great Tits Parus major (1969-2018) were analysed with random regression animal models to assess if spring temperatures affect the expressed amount of additive genetic variation (V_A ) and heritability (h² ) in the timing of breeding. We assessed if ambient temperatures of different seasons influenced the direction and strength of selection on breeding time. We also evaluated if the strength of selection covaried with evolutionary potential. Levels of V_A or h² expressed in laying date were unaffected by spring temperatures in both study species. Selection for earlier breeding was found in the Willow Tit, but not in the Great Tit. In the Willow Tit, selection for earlier breeding was more intense when the temperatures of following autumns and winters were low. Different measures of evolutionary potential did not covary strongly with the strength of selection in either species. We conclude that there is no or little evidence that climate warming would either constrain or promote evolutionary potential in timing of breeding through changes in amount of genetic variance expressed in boreal Willow and Great Tits. However, selection on the timing of breeding, a life-history event taking place in springtime, is regulated by temperatures of autumns and winters. Rapid warming of these periods have thus potential to reduce the rate of expected evolutionary response in reproductive timing.

Degrees of change: between and within population variation in thermal reaction norms of phenology in a viviparous lizard

As the earth warms, populations will be faced with novel environments to which they may not be adapted. In the short term, populations can be buffered against the negative effects, or maximize the beneficial effects, of such environmental change via phenotypic plasticity and, in the longer term, via adaptive evolution. However, the extent and direction of these population-level responses will be dependent on the degree to which responses vary among the individuals within them (i.e., within population variation in plasticity), which is, itself, likely to vary among populations. Despite this, we have estimates of among-individual variation in plastic responses across multiple populations for only a few systems. This lack of data limits our ability to predict the consequences of environmental change for population and species persistence accurately. Here, we utilized a 16-yr data set from climatically distinct populations of the viviparous skink Niveoscincus ocellatus tracking over 1,200 litters from more than 600 females from each population to examine inter- and intrapopulation variability in the response of parturition date to environmental temperature. We found that these populations share a common population-mean reaction norm but differ in the degree to which reaction norms vary among individuals. These results suggest that even where populations share a common mean-level response, we cannot assume that they will be affected similarly by altered environmental conditions. If we are to assess how changing climates will impact species and populations accurately, we require estimates of how plastic responses vary both among and within populations.

Quantifying individual variation in reaction norms: Mind the residual

Phenotypic plasticity is a central topic in ecology and evolution. Individuals may differ in the degree of plasticity (individual-by-environment interaction (I × E)), which has implications for the capacity of populations to respond to selection. Random regression models (RRMs) are a popular tool to study I × E in behavioural or life-history traits, yet evidence for I × E is mixed, differing between species, populations, and even between studies on the same population. One important source of discrepancies between studies is the treatment of heterogeneity in residual variance (heteroscedasticity). To date, there seems to be no collective awareness among ecologists of its influence on the estimation of I × E or a consensus on how to best model it. We performed RRMs with differing residual variance structures on simulated data with varying degrees of heteroscedasticity and plasticity, sample size and environmental variability to test how RRMs would perform under each scenario. The residual structure in the RRMs affected the precision of estimates of simulated I × E as well as statistical power, with substantial lack of precision and high false-positive rates when sample size, environmental variability and plasticity were small. We show that model comparison using information criteria can be used to choose among residual structures and reinforce this point by analysis of real data of two study populations of great tits (Parus major). We provide guidelines that can be used by biologists studying I × E that, ultimately, should lead to a reduction in bias in the literature concerning the statistical evidence and the reported magnitude of variation in plasticity.

Cumulative weather effects can impact across the whole life cycle

Predicting how species will be affected by future climatic change requires the underlying environmental drivers to be identified. As vital rates vary over the lifecycle, structured population models derived from statistical environment-demography relationships are often used to inform such predictions. Environmental drivers are typically identified independently for different vital rates and demographic classes. However, these rates often exhibit positive temporal covariance, suggesting that vital rates respond to common environmental drivers. Additionally, models often only incorporate average weather conditions during a single, a priori chosen time window (e.g. monthly means). Mismatches between these windows and the period when the vital rates are sensitive to variation in climate decrease the predictive performance of such approaches. We used a demographic structural equation model (SEM) to demonstrate that a single axis of environmental variation drives the majority of the (co)variation in survival, reproduction, and twinning across six age-sex classes in a Soay sheep population. This axis provides a simple target for the complex task of identifying the drivers of vital rate variation. We used functional linear models (FLMs) to determine the critical windows of three local climatic drivers, allowing the magnitude and direction of the climate effects to differ over time. Previously unidentified lagged climatic effects were detected in this well-studied population. The FLMs had a better predictive performance than selecting a critical window a priori, but not than a large-scale climate index. Positive covariance amongst vital rates and temporal variation in the effects of environmental drivers are common, suggesting our SEM-FLM approach is a widely applicable tool for exploring the joint responses of vital rates to environmental change.

On the evolution of carry-over effects

The environment experienced early in life often affects the traits that are developed after an individual has transitioned into new life stages and environments. Because the phenotypes induced by earlier environments are then screened by later ones, these 'carry-over effects' influence fitness outcomes across the entire life cycle. While the last two decades have witnessed an explosion of studies documenting the occurrence of carry-over effects, little attention has been given to how they adapt and diversify. To aid future research in this area, we present a framework for the evolution of carry-over effects. Carry-over effects can evolve in two ways. First, the expression of traits later in life may become more or less dependent on the developmental processes of earlier stages (e.g., 'adaptive decoupling'). Genetic correlations between life stages then either strengthen or weaken. Alternatively, those influential developmental processes that begin early in life may become more or less sensitive to that earlier environment. Here, plasticity changes in all the traits that share those developmental pathways across the whole life cycle. Adaptive evolution of a carry-over effect is governed by selection on the induced phenotypes in the later stage, and also by selection on any developmentally linked traits in the earlier life stage. When these selective pressures conflict, the evolution of the carry-over effect will be biased towards maximizing performance in the life stage with stronger selection. Because life stages often contribute unequally to total fitness, the strength of selection in any one stage depends on: (a) the relationship between the traits and the stage-specific fitness components (e.g., juvenile survival, adult mating success), and (b) the reproductive value of the life stage. Considering the evolution of carry-over effects reveals several intriguing features of the evolution of life histories and phenotypic plasticity more generally. For instance, carry-over effects that manifest as maladaptive plasticity in one life stage may represent an adaptive strategy for maximizing fitness in stages with stronger selection. Additionally, adaptation to novel environments encountered early in the life cycle may be faster in the presence of carry-over effects that influence sexually selected traits.

Consistent within-individual plasticity is sufficient to explain temperature responses in red deer reproductive traits

Warming global temperatures are affecting a range of aspects of wild populations, but the exact mechanisms driving associations between temperature and phenotypic traits may be difficult to identify. Here, we use a 36-year data set on a wild population of red deer to investigate the causes of associations between temperature and two important components of female reproduction: timing of breeding and offspring size. By separating within- versus between-individual associations with temperature for each trait, we show that within-individual phenotypic plasticity (changes within a female's lifetime) was entirely sufficient to generate the observed population-level association with temperature at key times of year. However, despite apparently adequate statistical power, we found no evidence of any variation between females in their responses (i.e. no "IxE" interactions). Our results suggest that female deer show plasticity in reproductive traits in response to temperatures in the year leading up to calving and that this response is consistent across individuals, implying no potential for either selection or heritability of plasticity. We estimate that the plastic response to rising temperatures explained 24% of the observed advance in mean calving date over the study period. We highlight the need for comparable analyses of other systems to determine the contribution of within-individual plasticity to population-level responses to climate change.

Temporally replicated DNA methylation patterns in great tit using reduced representation bisulfite sequencing

Seasonal timing of reproduction is an important fitness trait in many plants and animals but the underlying molecular mechanism for this trait is poorly known. DNA methylation is known to affect timing of reproduction in various organisms and is therefore a potential mechanism also in birds. Here we describe genome wide data aiming to detect temporal changes in methylation in relation to timing of breeding using artificial selection lines of great tits (Parus major) exposed to contrasting temperature treatments. Methylation levels of DNA extracted from erythrocytes were examined using reduced representation bisulfite sequencing (RRBS). In total, we obtained sequencing data from 63 libraries over four different time points from 16 birds with on average 20 million quality filtered reads per library. These data describe individual level temporal variation in DNA methylation throughout the breeding season under experimental temperature regimes and provides a resource for future studies investigating the role of temporal changes in DNA methylation in timing of reproduction.

Cue identification in phenology: A case study of the predictive performance of current statistical tools

Changes in the timing of life-history events (phenology) are a widespread consequence of climate change. Predicting population resilience requires knowledge of how phenology is likely to change over time, which can be gained by identifying the specific environmental cues that drive phenological events. Cue identification is often achieved with statistical testing of candidate cues. As the number of methods used to generate predictions increases, assessing the predictive accuracy of different approaches has become necessary. This study aims to (a) provide an empirical illustration of the predictive ability of five commonly applied statistical methods for cue identification (absolute and relative sliding time window analyses, penalized signal regression, climate sensitivity profiles and a growing degree-day model) and (b) discuss approaches for implementing cue identification methods in different systems. Using a dataset of mean clutch initiation timing in wild great tits (Parus major), we explored how the days of the year identified as most important, and the aggregate statistic identified as a cue, differed between statistical methods and with respect to the time span of data used. Each method's predictive capacity was tested using cross-validation and assessed for robustness to varying sample size. We show that the identified critical time window of cue sensitivity was consistent across four of the five methods. The accuracy and precision of predictions differed by method with penalized signal regression resulting in the most accurate and most precise predictions in our case. Accuracy was maximal for near-future predictions and showed a relationship with time. The difference between predictions and observations systematically shifted across the study from preceding observations to lagging. This temporal trend in prediction error suggests that the current statistical tools either fail to capture a key component of the cue-phenology relationship, or the relationship itself is changing through time in our system. These two influences need to be teased apart if we are to generate realistic predictions of phenological change. We recommend future phenological studies to challenge the idea of a static cue-phenology relationship and should cross-validate results across multiple time periods.

How to analyse plant phenotypic plasticity in response to a changing climate

Contents Summary 1235 I. Introduction 1235 II. The many shapes of phenotypic plasticity 1236 III. Random regression mixed model framework 1237 IV. Conclusions 1240 Acknowledgements 1240 References 1240 SUMMARY: Plant biology is experiencing a renewed interest in the mechanistic underpinnings and evolution of phenotypic plasticity that calls for a re-evaluation of how we analyse phenotypic responses to a rapidly changing climate. We suggest that dissecting plant plasticity in response to increasing temperature needs an approach that can represent plasticity over multiple environments, and considers both population-level responses and the variation between genotypes in their response. Here, we outline how a random regression mixed model framework can be applied to plastic traits that show linear or nonlinear responses to temperature. Random regressions provide a powerful and efficient means of characterising plasticity and its variation. Although they have been used widely in other fields, they have only recently been implemented in plant evolutionary ecology. We outline their structure and provide an example tutorial of their implementation.

Seasonal Variation in Genome-Wide DNA Methylation Patterns and the Onset of Seasonal Timing of Reproduction in Great Tits

In seasonal environments, timing of reproduction is a trait with important fitness consequences, but we know little about the molecular mechanisms that underlie the variation in this trait. Recently, several studies put forward DNA methylation as a mechanism regulating seasonal timing of reproduction in both plants and animals. To understand the involvement of DNA methylation in seasonal timing of reproduction, it is necessary to examine within-individual temporal changes in DNA methylation, but such studies are very rare. Here, we use a temporal sampling approach to examine changes in DNA methylation throughout the breeding season in female great tits (Parus major) that were artificially selected for early timing of breeding. These females were housed in climate-controlled aviaries and subjected to two contrasting temperature treatments. Reduced representation bisulfite sequencing on red blood cell derived DNA showed genome-wide temporal changes in more than 40,000 out of the 522,643 CpG sites examined. Although most of these changes were relatively small (mean within-individual change of 6%), the sites that showed a temporal and treatment-specific response in DNA methylation are candidate sites of interest for future studies trying to understand the link between DNA methylation patterns and timing of reproduction.

Phenological mismatch drives selection on elevation, but not on slope, of breeding time plasticity in a wild songbird

Phenotypic plasticity is an important mechanism for populations to respond to fluctuating environments, yet may be insufficient to adapt to a directionally changing environment. To study whether plasticity can evolve under current climate change, we quantified selection and genetic variation in both the elevation (RNE ) and slope (RNS ) of the breeding time reaction norm in a long-term (1973-2016) study population of great tits (Parus major). The optimal RNE (the caterpillar biomass peak date regressed against the temperature used as cue by great tits) changed over time, whereas the optimal RNS did not. Concordantly, we found strong directional selection on RNE , but not RNS , of egg-laying date in the second third of the study period; this selection subsequently waned, potentially due to increased between-year variability in optimal laying dates. We found individual and additive genetic variation in RNE but, contrary to previous studies on our population, not in RNS . The predicted and observed evolutionary change in RNE was, however, marginal, due to low heritability and the sex limitation of laying date. We conclude that adaptation to climate change can only occur via micro-evolution of RNE, but this will necessarily be slow and potentially hampered by increased variability in phenotypic optima.

Environmental coupling of heritability and selection is rare and of minor evolutionary significance in wild populations

Predicting the rate of adaptation to environmental change in wild populations is important for understanding evolutionary change. However, predictions may be unreliable if the two key variables affecting the rate of evolutionary change-heritability and selection-are both affected by the same environmental variable. To determine how general such an environmentally induced coupling of heritability and selection is, and how this may influence the rate of adaptation, we made use of freely accessible, open data on pedigreed wild populations to answer this question at the broadest possible scale. Using 16 populations from 10 vertebrate species, which provided data on 50 traits (relating to body mass, morphology, physiology, behaviour and life history), we found evidence for an environmentally induced relationship between heritability and selection in only 6 cases, with weak evidence that this resulted in an increase or decrease in the expected selection response. We conclude that such a coupling of heritability and selection is unlikely to strongly affect evolutionary change, even though both heritability and selection are commonly postulated to be dependent on the environment.

Between-population differences in the genetic and maternal components of body mass in roe deer

Background

Understanding the genetic and environmental mechanisms governing variation in morphology or phenology in wild populations is currently an important challenge. While there is a general consensus that selection is stronger under stressful conditions, it remains unclear whether the evolutionary potential of traits should increase or decrease with increasingly stressful conditions. Here, we investigate how contrasting environmental conditions during growth may affect the maternal and genetic components of body mass in roe deer, the most abundant and widespread wild ungulate in Western Europe. Body mass is a key life history trait that strongly influences both survival and reproductive performance in large herbivores. We used pedigrees and animal models to determine the variance components of juvenile and adult winter body mass in two populations experiencing contrasting early-life conditions.

Results

Our analyses showed that roe deer at Chizé, where habitat was poor and unpredictable, exhibited very low genetic variance in juvenile body mass. Instead, variance in mass was mainly driven by among-cohort differences in early-life conditions and maternal environment. In contrast, roe deer at Bogesund, where resource availability during the critical period of fawn rearing was higher, displayed a substantial level of genetic variance in body mass. We discuss the potential role of past demography and viability selection on fawn body mass on the erosion of genetic variance in the poor habitat.

Conclusions

Our study highlights the importance of accounting for both spatial (i.e. between-population variation) and temporal (i.e. cohort variation) heterogeneity in environmental conditions, especially in early life, to understand the potential for adaptive responses of wild populations to selection.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12862-018-1154-9) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Current spring warming as a driver of selection on reproductive timing in a wild passerine

Evolutionary adaptation as a response to climate change is expected for fitness-related traits affected by climate and exhibiting genetic variance. Although the relationship between warmer spring temperature and earlier timing of reproduction is well documented, quantifications and predictions of the impact of global warming on natural selection acting on phenology in wild populations remain rare. If global warming affects fitness in a similar way across individuals within a population, or if fitness consequences are independent of phenotypic variation in key-adaptive traits, then no evolutionary response is expected for these traits. Here, we quantified the selection pressures acting on laying date during a 24-year monitoring of blue tits in southern Mediterranean France, a hot spot of climate warming. We explored the temporal fluctuation in annual selection gradients and we determined its temperature-related drivers. We first investigated the month-specific warming since 1970 in our study site and tested its influence on selection pressures, using a model averaging approach. Then, we quantified the selection strength associated with temperature anomalies experienced by the blue tit population. We found that natural selection acting on laying date significantly fluctuated both in magnitude and in sign across years. After identifying a significant warming in spring and summer, we showed that warmer daily maximum temperatures in April were significantly associated with stronger selection pressures for reproductive timing. Our results indicated an increase in the strength of selection by 46% for every +1°C anomaly. Our results confirm the general assumption that recent climate change translates into strong selection favouring earlier breeders in passerine birds. Our findings also suggest that differences in fitness among individuals varying in their breeding phenology increase with climate warming. Such climate-driven influence on the strength of directional selection acting on laying date could favour an adaptive response in this trait, since it is heritable.

Evolvability meets biogeography: evolutionary potential decreases at high and low environmental favourability

Understanding and forecasting the effects of environmental change on wild populations requires knowledge on a critical question: do populations have the ability to evolve in response to that change? However, our knowledge on how evolution works in wild conditions under different environmental circumstances is extremely limited. We investigated how environmental variation influences the evolutionary potential of phenotypic traits. We used published data to collect or calculate 135 estimates of evolvability of morphological traits of European wild bird populations. We characterized the environmental favourability of each population throughout the species' breeding distribution. Our results suggest that the evolutionary potential of morphological traits decreases as environmental favourability becomes high or low. Strong environmental selection pressures and high intra-specific competition may reduce species' evolutionary potential in low- and high- favourability areas, respectively. This suggests that species may be least able to adapt to new climate conditions at their range margins and at the centre. Our results underscore the need to consider the evolutionary potential of populations when studying the drivers of species distributions, particularly when predicting the effects of environmental change. We discuss the utility of integrating evolutionary dynamics into a biogeographical perspective to understand how environmental variation shapes evolutionary patterns. This approach would also produce more reliable predictions about the effect of environmental change on population persistence and therefore on biodiversity.

Evidence for Selection-by-Environment but Not Genotype-by-Environment Interactions for Fitness-Related Traits in a Wild Mammal Population

How do environmental conditions influence selection and genetic variation in wild populations? There is widespread evidence for selection-by-environment interactions (S*E), but we reviewed studies of natural populations estimating the extent of genotype-by-environment interactions (G*E) in response to natural variation in environmental conditions and found that evidence for G*E appears to be rare within single populations in the wild. Studies estimating the simultaneous impact of environmental variation on both selection and genetic variation are especially scarce. Here, we used 24 years of data collected from a wild Soay sheep population to quantify how an important environmental variable, population density, impacts upon (1) selection through annual contribution to fitness and (2) expression of genetic variation, in six morphological and life history traits: body weight, hind leg length, parasite burden, horn length, horn growth, and testicular circumference. Our results supported the existence of S*E: selection was stronger in years of higher population density for all traits apart from horn growth, with directional selection being stronger under more adverse conditions. Quantitative genetic models revealed significant additive genetic variance for body weight, leg length, parasite burden, horn length, and testes size, but not for horn growth or our measure of annual fitness. However, random regression models found variation between individuals in their responses to the environment in only three traits, and did not support the presence of G*E for any trait. Our analyses of St Kilda Soay sheep data thus concurs with our cross-study review that, while natural environmental variation within a population can profoundly alter the strength of selection on phenotypic traits, there is less evidence for its effect on the expression of genetic variance in the wild.

Dynamic modulation of sociality and aggression: an examination of plasticity within endocrine and neuroendocrine systems

Endocrine and neuroendocrine systems are key mediators of behavioural plasticity and allow for the ability to shift social behaviour across dynamic contexts. These systems operate across timescales, modulating both rapid responses to environmental changes and developmental plasticity in behavioural phenotypes. Thus, not only do endocrine systems mediate behavioural plasticity, but also the systems themselves exhibit plasticity in functional capabilities. This flexibility at both the mechanistic and behavioural levels can be crucial for reproduction and survival. Here, we discuss how plasticity in nonapeptide and steroid actions may influence the expression of, and allow rapid shifts between, sociality and aggression-behavioural shifts that can be particularly important for social interactions. Recent findings of overlap in the mechanisms that modulate social and aggressive behaviour suggest the potential for a mechanistic continuum between these behaviours. We briefly discuss the potential for a sociality-aggression continuum and novel techniques that will enable probing of the functional connectivity of social behaviours. From an evolutionary perspective, we suggest that plasticity in endocrine and neuroendocrine mechanisms of behaviour may be important targets of selection, and discuss the conditions under which we would predict selection to have resulted in differences in endocrine plasticity across species that differ in social organization.This article is part of the themed issue 'Physiological determinants of social behaviour in animals'.

Environment-Dependent Genotype-Phenotype Associations in Avian Breeding Time

Understanding how genes shape phenotypes is essential to assess the evolutionary potential of a trait. Identifying the genes underlying quantitative behavioral or life-history traits has, however, proven to be a major challenge. The majority of these traits are phenotypically plastic and different parts of the genome can be involved in shaping the trait under different environmental conditions. These variable genotype-phenotype associations could be one explanation for the limited success of genome-wide association studies in such traits. We here use avian seasonal timing of breeding, a trait that is highly plastic in response to spring temperature, to explore effects of such genotype-by-environment interactions in genome-wide association studies. We genotyped 2045 great tit females for 384081 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and recorded their egg-laying dates in the wild. When testing for associations between SNPs and egg-laying dates, no SNP reached genome-wide significance. We then explored whether SNP effects were modified by annual spring temperature by formally testing for an interaction between SNP effect and temperature. The models including the SNP^∗temperature interaction performed consistently better although no SNP reached genome-wide significance. Our results suggest that the effects of genes shaping seasonal timing depended on annual spring temperature. Such environment-dependent effects are expected for any phenotypically plastic trait. Taking these effects into account will thus improve the success of detecting genes involved in phenotypically plastic traits, thereby leading to a better understanding of their evolutionary potential.

Potential for adaptation to climate change: family-level variation in fitness-related traits and their responses to heat waves in a snail population

BACKGROUND

On-going global climate change poses a serious threat for natural populations unless they are able to evolutionarily adapt to changing environmental conditions (e.g. increasing average temperatures, occurrence of extreme weather events). A prerequisite for evolutionary change is within-population heritable genetic variation in traits subject to selection. In relation to climate change, mainly phenological traits as well as heat and desiccation resistance have been examined for such variation. Therefore, it is important to investigate adaptive potential under climate change conditions across a broader range of traits. This is especially true for life-history traits and defences against natural enemies (e.g. parasites) since they influence organisms' fitness both directly and through species interactions. We examined the adaptive potential of fitness-related traits and their responses to heat waves in a population of a freshwater snail, Lymnaea stagnalis. We estimated family-level variation and covariation in life history (size, reproduction) and constitutive immune defence traits [haemocyte concentration, phenoloxidase (PO)-like activity, antibacterial activity of haemolymph] in snails experimentally exposed to typical (15 °C) and heat wave (25 °C) temperatures. We also assessed variation in the reaction norms of these traits between the treatments.

RESULTS

We found that at the heat wave temperature, snails were larger and reproduced more, while their immune defence was reduced. Snails showed high family-level variation in all examined traits within both temperature treatments. The only negative genetic correlation (between reproduction and antibacterial activity) appeared at the high temperature. However, we found no family-level variation in the responses of most examined traits to the experimental heat wave (i.e. largely parallel reaction norms between the treatments). Only the reduction of PO-like activity when exposed to the high temperature showed family-level variation, suggesting that the cost of heat waves may be lower for some families and could evolve under selection.

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that there is genetic potential for adaptation within both thermal environments and that trait evolution may not be strongly affected by trade-offs between them. However, rare differences in thermal reaction norms across families indicate limited evolutionary potential in the responses of snails to changing temperatures during extreme weather events.

Transcriptional mechanisms underlying life-history responses to climate change in the three-spined stickleback

Phenotypic plasticity, the ability of an organism to express different phenotypes depending on the environment, provides an important mechanism by which an animal population can persist under rapid climate change. We experimentally tested both life‐history and transcriptional responses of an ecological model species, the three‐spined stickleback, to warm acclimation at the southern edge of its European range. We explored cross‐environment genetic correlations of key life‐history traits in male sticklebacks exposed to long‐term temperature changes to examine whether the plasticity pattern was variable among genotypes by using a character‐state approach. We also studied gene expression plasticity by analysing both whole‐transcriptome and candidate gene expression in brain and liver. Male sticklebacks that developed under warmer conditions during winter were smaller in size and invested less in nuptial coloration at the beginning of the breeding season, showing similar responses across different genotypes. The lack of genetic variation in life‐history responses may limit any future evolution of the thermal reaction norm in the study population. After long‐term exposure to increased winter temperatures, genes responsible for several metabolic and oxidation–reduction processes were upregulated, and some hormone genes involved in growth and reproduction were downregulated in the brain. In the liver, there was no significantly represented gene ontology by the differentially expressed genes. Since a higher temperature leads to a higher resting metabolic rate, living in warmer environments may incur higher energetic costs for ectotherms to maintain cellular homoeostasis, resulting in negative consequences for life‐history traits. The expression of genes related to metabolism, cellular homoeostasis and regulatory signalling may underlie temperature‐induced changes in life history.

Plasticity results in delayed breeding in a long-distant migrant seabird

A major question for conservationists and evolutionary biologists is whether natural populations can adapt to rapid environmental change through micro-evolution or phenotypic plasticity. Making use of 17 years of data from a colony of a long-distant migratory seabird, the common tern (Sterna hirundo), we examined phenotypic plasticity and the evolutionary potential of breeding phenology, a key reproductive trait. We found that laying date was strongly heritable (0.27 ± 0.09) and under significant fecundity selection for earlier laying. Paradoxically, and in contrast to patterns observed in most songbird populations, laying date became delayed over the study period, by about 5 days. The discrepancy between the observed changes and those predicted from selection on laying date was explained by substantial phenotypic plasticity. The plastic response in laying date did not vary significantly among individuals. Exploration of climatic factors showed individual responses to the mean sea surface temperature in Senegal in December prior to breeding: Common terns laid later following warmer winters in Senegal. For each 1°C of warming of the sea surface in Senegal, common terns delayed their laying date in northern Germany by 6.7 days. This suggests that warmer waters provide poorer wintering resources. We therefore found that substantial plastic response to wintering conditions can oppose natural selection, perhaps constraining adaptation.

Conserved G-matrices of morphological and life-history traits among continental and island blue tit populations

The genetic variance-covariance matrix (G-matrix) summarizes the genetic architecture of multiple traits. It has a central role in the understanding of phenotypic divergence and the quantification of the evolutionary potential of populations. Laboratory experiments have shown that G-matrices can vary rapidly under divergent selective pressures. However, because of the demanding nature of G-matrix estimation and comparison in wild populations, the extent of its spatial variability remains largely unknown. In this study, we investigate spatial variation in G-matrices for morphological and life-history traits using long-term data sets from one continental and three island populations of blue tit (Cyanistes caeruleus) that have experienced contrasting population history and selective environment. We found no evidence for differences in G-matrices among populations. Interestingly, the phenotypic variance-covariance matrices (P) were divergent across populations, suggesting that using P as a substitute for G may be inadequate. These analyses also provide the first evidence in wild populations for additive genetic variation in the incubation period (that is, the period between last egg laid and hatching) in all four populations. Altogether, our results suggest that G-matrices may be stable across populations inhabiting contrasted environments, therefore challenging the results of previous simulation studies and laboratory experiments.

Phenotypic plasticity of nest timing in a post-glacial landscape: how do reptiles adapt to seasonal time constraints?

Life histories evolve in response to constraints on the time available for growth and development. Nesting date and its plasticity in response to spring temperature may therefore be important components of fitness in oviparous ectotherms near their northern range limit, as reproducing early provides more time for embryos to complete development before winter. We used data collected over several decades to compare air temperature and nest date plasticity in populations of painted turtles and snapping turtles from a relatively warm environment (southeastern Michigan) near the southern extent of the last glacial maximum to a relatively cool environment (central Ontario) near the northern extent of post-glacial recolonization. For painted turtles, population-level differences in reaction norm elevation for two phenological traits were consistent with adaptation to time constraints, but no differences in reaction norm slopes were observed. For snapping turtle populations, the difference in reaction norm elevation for a single phenological trait was in the opposite direction of what was expected under adaptation to time constraints, and no difference in reaction norm slope was observed. Finally, among-individual variation in individual plasticity for nesting date was detected only in the northern population of snapping turtles, suggesting that reaction norms are less canalized in this northern population. Overall, we observed evidence of phenological adaptation, and possibly maladaptation, to time constraints in long-lived reptiles. Where present, (mal)adaptation occurred by virtue of differences in reaction norm elevation, not reaction norm slope. Glacial history, generation time, and genetic constraint may all play an important role in the evolution of phenological timing and its plasticity in long-lived reptiles.

Accounting for genetic differences among unknown parents in microevolutionary studies: how to include genetic groups in quantitative genetic animal models

Quantifying and predicting microevolutionary responses to environmental change requires unbiased estimation of quantitative genetic parameters in wild populations. 'Animal models', which utilize pedigree data to separate genetic and environmental effects on phenotypes, provide powerful means to estimate key parameters and have revolutionized quantitative genetic analyses of wild populations. However, pedigrees collected in wild populations commonly contain many individuals with unknown parents. When unknown parents are non-randomly associated with genetic values for focal traits, animal model parameter estimates can be severely biased. Yet, such bias has not previously been highlighted and statistical methods designed to minimize such biases have not been implemented in evolutionary ecology. We first illustrate how the occurrence of non-random unknown parents in population pedigrees can substantially bias animal model predictions of breeding values and estimates of additive genetic variance, and create spurious temporal trends in predicted breeding values in the absence of local selection. We then introduce 'genetic group' methods, which were developed in agricultural science, and explain how these methods can minimize bias in quantitative genetic parameter estimates stemming from genetic heterogeneity among individuals with unknown parents. We summarize the conceptual foundations of genetic group animal models and provide extensive, step-by-step tutorials that demonstrate how to fit such models in a variety of software programs. Furthermore, we provide new functions in r that extend current software capabilities and provide a standardized approach across software programs to implement genetic group methods. Beyond simply alleviating bias, genetic group animal models can directly estimate new parameters pertaining to key biological processes. We discuss one such example, where genetic group methods potentially allow the microevolutionary consequences of local selection to be distinguished from effects of immigration and resulting gene flow. We highlight some remaining limitations of genetic group models and discuss opportunities for further development and application in evolutionary ecology. We suggest that genetic group methods should no longer be overlooked by evolutionary ecologists, but should become standard components of the toolkit for animal model analyses of wild population data sets.

climwin: An R Toolbox for Climate Window Analysis

When studying the impacts of climate change, there is a tendency to select climate data from a small set of arbitrary time periods or climate windows (e.g., spring temperature). However, these arbitrary windows may not encompass the strongest periods of climatic sensitivity and may lead to erroneous biological interpretations. Therefore, there is a need to consider a wider range of climate windows to better predict the impacts of future climate change. We introduce the R package climwin that provides a number of methods to test the effect of different climate windows on a chosen response variable and compare these windows to identify potential climate signals. climwin extracts the relevant data for each possible climate window and uses this data to fit a statistical model, the structure of which is chosen by the user. Models are then compared using an information criteria approach. This allows users to determine how well each window explains variation in the response variable and compare model support between windows. climwin also contains methods to detect type I and II errors, which are often a problem with this type of exploratory analysis. This article presents the statistical framework and technical details behind the climwin package and demonstrates the applicability of the method with a number of worked examples.

The alignment between phenotypic plasticity, the major axis of genetic variation and the response to selection

Phenotypic plasticity is the ability of a genotype to produce more than one phenotype in order to match the environment. Recent theory proposes that the major axis of genetic variation in a phenotypically plastic population can align with the direction of selection. Therefore, theory predicts that plasticity directly aids adaptation by increasing genetic variation in the direction favoured by selection and reflected in plasticity. We evaluated this theory in the freshwater crustacean Daphnia pulex, facing predation risk from two contrasting size-selective predators. We estimated plasticity in several life-history traits, the G matrix of these traits, the selection gradients on reproduction and survival, and the predicted responses to selection. Using these data, we tested whether the genetic lines of least resistance and the predicted response to selection aligned with plasticity. We found predator environment-specific G matrices, but shared genetic architecture across environments resulted in more constraint in the G matrix than in the plasticity of the traits, sometimes preventing alignment of the two. However, as the importance of survival selection increased, the difference between environments in their predicted response to selection increased and resulted in closer alignment between the plasticity and the predicted selection response. Therefore, plasticity may indeed aid adaptation to new environments.

Winter wren populations show adaptation to local climate

Most studies of evolutionary responses to climate change have focused on phenological responses to warming, and provide only weak evidence for evolutionary adaptation. This could be because phenological changes are more weakly linked to fitness than more direct mechanisms of climate change impacts, such as selective mortality during extreme weather events which have immediate fitness consequences for the individuals involved. Studies examining these other mechanisms may be more likely to show evidence for evolutionary adaptation. To test this, we quantify regional population responses of a small resident passerine (winter wren Troglodytes troglodytes) to a measure of winter severity (number of frost days). Annual population growth rate was consistently negatively correlated with this measure, but the point at which different populations achieved stability (λ = 1) varied across regions and was closely correlated with the historic average number of frost days, providing strong evidence for local adaptation. Despite this, regional variation in abundance remained negatively related to the regional mean number of winter frost days, potentially as a result of a time-lag in the rate of evolutionary response to climate change. As expected from Bergmann's rule, individual wrens were heavier in colder regions, suggesting that local adaptation may be mediated through body size. However, there was no evidence for selective mortality of small individuals in cold years, with annual variation in mean body size uncorrelated with the number of winter frost days, so the extent to which local adaptation occurs through changes in body size, or another mechanism remains uncertain.

Genome-wide association mapping in a wild avian population identifies a link between genetic and phenotypic variation in a life-history trait

Understanding the genetic basis of traits involved in adaptation is a major challenge in evolutionary biology but remains poorly understood. Here, we use genome-wide association mapping using a custom 50 k single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) array in a natural population of collared flycatchers to examine the genetic basis of clutch size, an important life-history trait in many animal species. We found evidence for an association on chromosome 18 where one SNP significant at the genome-wide level explained 3.9% of the phenotypic variance. We also detected two suggestive quantitative trait loci (QTLs) on chromosomes 9 and 26. Fitness differences among genotypes were generally weak and not significant, although there was some indication of a sex-by-genotype interaction for lifetime reproductive success at the suggestive QTL on chromosome 26. This implies that sexual antagonism may play a role in maintaining genetic variation at this QTL. Our findings provide candidate regions for a classic avian life-history trait that will be useful for future studies examining the molecular and cellular function of, as well as evolutionary mechanisms operating at, these loci.

Climate and habitat interact to shape the thermal reaction norms of breeding phenology across lizard populations

Substantial plastic variation in phenology in response to environmental heterogeneity through time in the same population has been uncovered in many species. However, our understanding of differences in reaction norms of phenology among populations from a given species remains limited. As the plasticity of phenological traits is often influenced by local thermal conditions, we expect local temperature to generate variation in the reaction norms between populations. Here, we explored temporal variation in parturition date across 11 populations of the common lizard (Zootoca vivipara) from four mountain chains as a function of air temperatures during mid-gestation. We characterized among-population variation to assess how local weather conditions (mean and variance of ambient temperatures during mid-gestation) and habitat openness (an index of anthropogenic disturbance) influence the thermal reaction norms of the parturition date. Our results provide evidence of interactive effects of anthropogenic disturbance and thermal conditions, with earlier parturition dates in warmer years on average especially in closed habitats. Variation in the reaction norms for parturition date was correlated with mean local thermal conditions at a broad geographical scale. However, populations exposed to variable thermal conditions had flatter thermal reaction norms. Assessing whether environmental heterogeneity drives differentiation among reaction norms is crucial to estimate the capacity of different populations to contend with projected climatic and anthropogenic challenges.

A benign juvenile environment reduces the strength of antagonistic pleiotropy and genetic variation in the rate of senescence

The environment can play an important role in the evolution of senescence because the optimal allocation between somatic maintenance and reproduction depends on external factors influencing life expectancy.

The aims of this study were to experimentally test whether environmental conditions during early life can shape senescence schedules, and if so, to examine whether variation among individuals or genotypes with respect to the degree of ageing differs across environments.

We tested life‐history plasticity and quantified genetic effects on the pattern of senescence across different environments within a reaction norm framework by using an experiment on the three‐spined stickleback (Gasterosteus aculeatus, Linnaeus) in which F1 families originating from a wild annual population experienced different temperature regimes.

Male sticklebacks that had experienced a more benign environment earlier in life subsequently reduced their investment in carotenoid‐based sexual signals early in the breeding season, and consequently senesced at a slower rate later in the season, compared to those that had developed under harsher conditions. This plasticity of ageing was genetically determined. Both antagonistic pleiotropy and genetic variation in the rate of senescence were evident only in the individuals raised in the harsher environment.

The experimental demonstration of genotype‐by‐environment interactions influencing the rate of reproductive senescence provides interesting insights into the role of the environment in the evolution of life histories. The results suggest that benign conditions weaken the scope for senescence to evolve and that the dependence on the environment may maintain genetic variation under selection.

Replicated analysis of the genetic architecture of quantitative traits in two wild great tit populations

Currently, there is much debate on the genetic architecture of quantitative traits in wild populations. Is trait variation influenced by many genes of small effect or by a few genes of major effect? Where is additive genetic variation located in the genome? Do the same loci cause similar phenotypic variation in different populations? Great tits (Parus major) have been studied extensively in long‐term studies across Europe and consequently are considered an ecological ‘model organism’. Recently, genomic resources have been developed for the great tit, including a custom SNP chip and genetic linkage map. In this study, we used a suite of approaches to investigate the genetic architecture of eight quantitative traits in two long‐term study populations of great tits—one in the Netherlands and the other in the United Kingdom. Overall, we found little evidence for the presence of genes of large effects in either population. Instead, traits appeared to be influenced by many genes of small effect, with conservative estimates of the number of contributing loci ranging from 31 to 310. Despite concordance between population‐specific heritabilities, we found no evidence for the presence of loci having similar effects in both populations. While population‐specific genetic architectures are possible, an undetected shared architecture cannot be rejected because of limited power to map loci of small and moderate effects. This study is one of few examples of genetic architecture analysis in replicated wild populations and highlights some of the challenges and limitations researchers will face when attempting similar molecular quantitative genetic studies in free‐living populations.