Limits to the niche and range margins of alien species

Understanding biological invasions through the lens of environmental niches

Understanding successful invasions across taxa and systems in a unified framework is a central goal of biological conservation. While the environmental niche is a promising concept to improve our understanding of biological invasions, existing studies have not applied it to comprehensively examine all invasion stages. Here, we provide a framework that integrates the environmental niche and invasion process at both the species and the population level. By elucidating how species and populations perform in the niche space, we demonstrate how different dimensions of species niches can help in understanding inter- and intraspecific variations in the success and impact of non-native species, and identify knowledge gaps. The niche framework also offers flexibility in integrating other factors driving the success and impact of non-native species.

When adaptation is slowed down: Genomic analysis of evolutionary stasis in thermal tolerance during biological invasion in a novel climate

Research conducted during the past two decades has demonstrated that biological invasions are excellent models of rapid evolution. Even so, characteristics of invasive populations such as a short time for recombination to assemble optimal combinations of alleles may occasionally limit adaptation to new environments. Here, we investigated such genetic constraints to adaptation in the invasive brown anole (Anolis sagrei)-a tropical ectotherm that was introduced to the southeastern United States, a region with a much colder climate than in its native Caribbean range. We examined thermal physiology for 30 invasive populations and tested for a climatic cline in cold tolerance. Also, we used genomics to identify mechanisms that may limit adaptation. We found no support for a climatic cline, indicating that thermal tolerance did not shift adaptively. Concomitantly, population genomic results were consistent with the occurrence of recombination cold spots that comprise more than half of the genome and maintain long-range associations among alleles in invasive populations. These genomic regions overlap with both candidate thermal tolerance loci that we identified using a standard genome-wide association test. Moreover, we found that recombination cold spots do not have a large contribution to population differentiation in the invasive range, contrary to observations in the native range. We suggest that limited recombination is constraining the contribution of large swaths of the genome to adaptation in invasive brown anoles. Our study provides an example of evolutionary stasis during invasion and highlights the possibility that reduced recombination occasionally slows down adaptation in invasive populations.

Adaptive constraints at the range edge of a widespread and expanding invasive plant

Identifying the factors that facilitate and limit invasive species' range expansion has both practical and theoretical importance, especially at the range edges. Here, we used reciprocal common garden experiments spanning the North/South and East/West range that include the North American core, intermediate and range edges of the globally invasive plant, Johnsongrass (Sorghum halepense) to investigate the interplay of climate, biotic interactions (i.e. competition) and patterns of adaptation. Our results suggest that the rapid range expansion of Johnsongrass into diverse environments across wide geographies occurred largely without local adaptation, but that further range expansion may be restricted by a fitness trade-off that limits population growth at the range edge. Interestingly, plant competition strongly dampened Johnsongrass growth but did not change the rank order performance of populations within a garden, though this varied among gardens (climates). Our findings highlight the importance of including the range edge when studying the range dynamics of invasive species, especially as we try to understand how invasive species will respond to accelerating global changes.

The poleward naturalization of intracontinental alien plants

Plant introductions outside their native ranges by humans have led to substantial ecological consequences. While we have gained considerable knowledge about intercontinental introductions, the distribution and determinants of intracontinental aliens remain poorly understood. Here, we studied naturalized (i.e., self-sustaining) intracontinental aliens using native and alien floras of 243 mainland regions in North America, South America, Europe, and Australia. We revealed that 4510 plant species had intracontinental origins, accounting for 3.9% of all plant species and 56.7% of all naturalized species in these continents. In North America and Europe, the numbers of intracontinental aliens peaked at mid-latitudes, while the proportion peaked at high latitudes in Europe. Notably, we found predominant poleward naturalization, primarily due to larger native species pools in low-latitudes. Geographic and climatic distances constrained the naturalization of intracontinental aliens in Australia, Europe, and North America, but not in South America. These findings suggest that poleward naturalizations will accelerate, as high latitudes become suitable for more plant species due to climate change.

Stronger evidence for genetic ancestry than environmental conditions in shaping the evolution of a complex signalling trait during biological invasion

Introductions of invasive species to new environments often result in rapid rates of trait evolution. While in some cases these evolutionary transitions are adaptive and driven by natural selection, they can also result from patterns of genetic and phenotypic variation associated with the invasion history. Here, we examined the brown anole (Anolis sagrei), a widespread invasive lizard for which genetic data have helped trace the sources of non-native populations. We focused on the dewlap, a complex signalling trait known to be subject to multiple selective pressures. We measured dewlap reflectance, pattern and size in 30 non-native populations across the southeastern United States. As well, we quantified environmental variables known to influence dewlap signal effectiveness, such as canopy openness. Further, we used genome-wide data to estimate genetic ancestry, perform association mapping and test for signatures of selection. We found that among-population variation in dewlap characteristics was best explained by genetic ancestry. This result was supported by genome-wide association mapping, which identified several ancestry-specific loci associated with dewlap traits. Despite the strong imprint of this aspect of the invasion history on dewlap variation, we also detected significant relationships between dewlap traits and local environmental conditions. However, we found limited evidence that dewlap-associated genetic variants have been subject to selection. Our study emphasizes the importance of genetic ancestry and admixture in shaping phenotypes during biological invasion, while leaving the role of selection unresolved, likely due to the polygenic genetic architecture of dewlaps and selection acting on many genes of small effect.

Plant invasion risk inside and outside protected areas: Propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors definitively matter

Invasive alien species are among the main global drivers of biodiversity loss posing major challenges to nature conservation and to managers of protected areas. The present study applied a methodological framework that combined invasive Species Distribution Models, based on propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors for 14 invasive alien plants of Union concern in Italy, with the local interpretable model-agnostic explanation analysis aiming to map, evaluate and analyse the risk of plant invasions across the country, inside and outside the network of protected areas. Using a hierarchical invasive Species Distribution Model, we explored the combined effect of propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors on shaping invasive alien plant occurrence across three biogeographic regions (Alpine, Continental, and Mediterranean) and realms (terrestrial and aquatic) in Italy. We disentangled the role of propagule pressure, abiotic and biotic factors on invasive alien plant distribution and projected invasion risk maps. We compared the risk posed by invasive alien plants inside and outside protected areas. Invasive alien plant distribution varied across biogeographic regions and realms and unevenly threatens protected areas. As an alien's occurrence and risk on a national scale are linked with abiotic factors followed by propagule pressure, their local distribution in protected areas is shaped by propagule pressure and biotic filters. The proposed modelling framework for the assessment of the risk posed by invasive alien plants across spatial scales and under different protection regimes represents an attempt to fill the gap between theory and practice in conservation planning helping to identify scale, site, and species-specific priorities of management, monitoring and control actions. Based on solid theory and on free geographic information, it has great potential for application to wider networks of protected areas in the world and to any invasive alien plant, aiding improved management strategies claimed by the environmental legislation and national and global strategies.

Niche Filling Dynamics of Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) during Global Invasion

Determining whether the climatic ecological niche of an invasive alien plant is similar to that of the niche occupied by its native population (ecological niche conservatism) is essential for predicting the plant invasion process. Ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) usually poses serious threats to human health, agriculture, and ecosystems within its newly occupied range. We calculated the overlap, stability, unfilling, and expansion of ragweed's climatic ecological niche using principal component analysis and performed ecological niche hypothesis testing. The current and potential distribution of A. artemisiifolia was mapped by ecological niche models to identify areas in China with the highest potential risk of A. artemisiifolia invasion. The high ecological niche stability indicates that A. artemisiifolia is ecologically conservative during the invasion. Ecological niche expansion (expansion = 0.407) occurred only in South America. In addition, the difference between the climatic and native niches of the invasive populations is mainly the result of unpopulated niches. The ecological niche model suggests that southwest China, which has not been invaded by A. artemisiifolia, faces an elevated risk of invasion. Although A. artemisiifolia occupies a climatic niche distinct from native populations, the climatic niche of the invasive population is only a subset of the native niche. The difference in climatic conditions is the main factor leading to the ecological niche expansion of A. artemisiifolia during the invasion. Additionally, human activities play a substantial role in the expansion of A. artemisiifolia. Alterations in the A. artemisiifolia niche would help explain why this species is so invasive in China.

Understanding the biology of species' ranges: when and how does evolution change the rules of ecological engagement?

Understanding processes that limit species' ranges has been a core issue in ecology and evolutionary biology for many decades, and has become increasingly important given the need to predict the responses of biological communities to rapid environmental change. However, we still have a poor understanding of evolution at range limits and its capacity to change the ecological 'rules of engagement' that define these communities, as well as the time frame over which this occurs. Here we link papers in the current volume to some key concepts involved in the interactions between evolutionary and ecological processes at species' margins. In particular, we separate hypotheses about species' margins that focus on hard evolutionary limits, which determine how genotypes interact with their environment, from those concerned with soft evolutionary limits, which determine where and when local adaptation can persist in space and time. We show how theoretical models and empirical studies highlight conditions under which gene flow can expand local limits as well as contain them. In doing so, we emphasize the complex interplay between selection, demography and population structure throughout a species' geographical and ecological range that determines its persistence in biological communities. However, despite some impressively detailed studies on range limits, particularly in invertebrates and plants, few generalizations have emerged that can predict evolutionary responses at ecological margins. We outline some directions for future work such as considering the impact of structural genetic variants and metapopulation structure on limits, and the interaction between range limits and the evolution of mating systems and non-random dispersal. This article is part of the theme issue 'Species' ranges in the face of changing environments (Part II)'.

Interspecific trait variability and local soil conditions modulate grassland model community responses to climate

Medium-to-high elevation grasslands provide critical services in agriculture and ecosystem stabilization, through high biodiversity and providing food for wildlife. However, these ecosystems face elevated risks of disruption due to predicted soil and climate changes. Separating the effects of soil and climate, however, is difficult in situ, with previous experiments focusing largely on monocultures instead of natural grassland communities. We experimentally exposed model grassland communities, comprised of three species grown on either local or reference soil, to varied climatic environments along an elevational gradient in the European Alps, measuring the effects on species and community traits. Although species-specific biomass varied across soil and climate, species' proportional contributions to community-level biomass production remained consistent. Where species experienced low survivorship, species-level biomass production was maintained through increased productivity of surviving individuals; however, maximum species-level biomass was obtained under high survivorship. Species responded directionally to climatic variation, spatially separating differentially by plant traits (including height, reproduction, biomass, survival, leaf dry weight, and leaf area) consistently across all climates. Local soil variation drove stochastic trait responses across all species, with high levels of interactions occurring between site and species. This soil variability obscured climate-driven responses: we recorded no directional trait responses for soil-corrected traits like observed for climate-corrected traits. Our species-based approach contributes to our understanding of grassland community stabilization and suggests that these communities show some stability under climatic variation.

Climatic niche shifts in introduced species

Predictions of future biological invasions often rely on the assumption that introduced species establish only under climatic conditions similar to those in their native range. To date, 135 studies have tested this assumption of 'niche conservatism', yielding contradictory results. Here we revisit this literature, consider the evidence for niche shifts, critically assess the methods used, and discuss the authors' interpretations of niche shifts. We find that the true frequency of niche shifts remains unknown because of diverging interpretations of similar metrics, conceptual issues biasing conclusions towards niche conservatism, and the use of climatic data that may not be biologically meaningful. We argue that these issues could be largely addressed by focussing on trends or relative degrees of niche change instead of dichotomous classifications (shift versus no shift), consistently and transparently including non-analogous climates, and conducting experimental studies on mismatches between macroclimates and microclimates experienced by the study organism. Furthermore, an observed niche shift may result either from species filling a greater part of their fundamental niche during the invasion (a 'realised niche shift') or from rapid evolution of traits adapting species to novel climates in the introduced range (a 'fundamental niche shift'). Currently, there is no conclusive evidence distinguishing between these potential mechanisms of niche shifts. We outline how these questions may be addressed by combining computational analyses and experimental evidence.

Modelling and validation of the spatial distribution of suitable habitats for the recruitment of invasive plants on climate change scenarios: An approach from the regeneration niche

The regeneration niche concept states that plant species only occur in habitats where the environmental conditions allow their recruitment. This study focuses on this concept and proposes a novel approach for modelling and experimentally validating the distribution of suitable habitats for the recruitment of invasive plants under the current and future climate. The biological invasion of the Peruvian peppertree (Schinus molle) in Mexico is used as practical example. The values of eight bioclimatic variables associated to sites in which young, naturally established seedlings and saplings were detected were used to model the current distribution of recruitment habitats. A machine-learning algorithm of maximum entropy (MaxEnt) was used to calibrate the model and its output indicated the distribution of occurrence probabilities of young peppertrees in Mexico under the current climate. This model was projected on climate change scenarios predicted for the middle of this century, which indicated that the cover of suitable recruitment habitats for this invasive species will shrink. To validate these predictions, field experiments were performed at three sites where the model predicted reduced occurrence probabilities of young peppertrees. In these experiments, emergence and survival rates of peppertree seedlings were assessed under the current climate and under simulated climate change conditions. As seedling emergence and survival rates were lower under simulated climate change conditions, the experiments validated the model predictions. These results supported our proposal, which combines modelling and experimental approaches to make accurate and valid predictions about the distribution of suitable recruitment habitats for invasive plants in a warmer and drier world.

Distribution of Five Aquatic Plants Native to South America and Invasive Elsewhere under Current Climate

Biological invasions and climate pose two of the most important challenges facing global biodiversity. Certainly, climate change may intensify the impacts of invasion by allowing invasive plants to increase in abundance and further expand their ranges. For example, most aquatic alien plants in temperate climate are of tropical and subtropical origins and the northern limits of their ranges are generally determined by minimum winter temperatures, and they will probably expand their distributions northwards if climate warms. The distribution of five invasive aquatic plants in freshwater systems across continents were investigated. Their global distributions in the current climate were modeled using a recently developed ensemble species distribution model approach, specifically designed to account for dispersal constraints on the distributions of range-expanding species. It was found that the species appear capable of substantial range expansion, and that low winter temperature is the strongest factor limiting their invasion. These findings can be used to identify areas at risk of recently introduction of neophytes, and develop future monitoring programs for aquatic ecosystems, prioritizing control efforts, which enables the effective use of ecological niche models to forecast aquatic invasion in other geographic regions.

Rapid genomic and phenotypic change in response to climate warming in a widespread plant invader

Predicting plant distributions under climate change is constrained by our limited understanding of potential rapid adaptive evolution. In an experimental evolution study with the invasive common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.) we subjected replicated populations of the same initial genetic composition to simulated climate warming. Pooled DNA sequencing of parental and offspring populations showed that warming populations experienced greater genetic divergence from their parents, than control populations. In a common environment, offspring from warming populations showed more convergent phenotypes in seven out of nine plant traits, with later flowering and larger biomass, than plants from control populations. For both traits, we also found a significantly higher ratio of phenotypic to genetic differentiation across generations for warming than for control populations, indicating stronger response to selection under warming conditions. As a measure for evolutionary rate, the phenotypic and sequence divergence between generations were assessed using the Haldane metric. Our approach combining comparisons between generations (allochronic) and between treatments (synchronic) in an experimental evolutionary field study, and linking population genomic data with phenotyping analyses provided a powerful test to detect rapid responses to selection. Our findings demonstrate that ragweed populations can rapidly evolve in response to climate change within a single generation. Short-term evolutionary responses to climate change may aggravate the impact of some plant invaders in the future and should be considered when making predictions about future distributions and impacts of plant invaders.

Smaller climatic niche shifts in invasive than non-invasive alien ant species

The globalization of trade and human movement has resulted in the accidental dispersal of thousands of alien species worldwide at an unprecedented scale. Some of these species are considered invasive because of their extensive spatial spread or negative impacts on native biodiversity. Explaining which alien species become invasive is a major challenge of invasion biology, and it is often assumed that invasiveness is linked to a greater ability to establish in novel climates. To test whether invasive species have expanded more into novel climates than non-invasive alien species, we quantified niche shifts of 82 ant species. Surprisingly, invasive species showed smaller niche shifts than non-invasive alien species. Independent of their invasiveness, the species with the smallest native niches and range sizes, experienced the greatest niche shifts. Overall, our results challenge the assumption that invasive species are particularly good pioneers of novel climates.

Plant species' range type determines local responses to biotic interactions and land use

Geographic plant distribution is often assumed to be predominantly limited directly by the climatic tolerances of species. However, the role of climate is now known to be mainly an indirect one mostly mediating dispersal and establishment, species interactions, or habitat characteristics, which all are often modified by human land use. In these complex systems, negative biotic interactions are predicted to increase in relative importance toward benign climatic conditions. We tested this hypothesis experimentally by exposing plant species with different geographic distribution ranges to different climates, biotic interactions, and land use. Thereby, species predominantly distributed in regions with benign climatic conditions were expected to be better able to cope with negative biotic interactions than species from regions with environmentally stressful climatic conditions. We present results of a fully crossed two-year transplantation field experiment replicated in 45 plots in three study regions along a precipitation gradient across Germany. We manipulated biotic interactions (presence/absence of competition and mollusk herbivory) in grasslands of different management regimes (meadows, mown pastures, pastures). The transplanted phytometers consisted of six congeneric species pairs, each representing one oceanic and one distinctly more continental range type. The oceanic range type is predominantly distributed in benign climatic conditions in Western Europe, while the more continental type is distributed in regions with more stressful climatic conditions in Eastern Europe. This experimental setting allowed us to study the impact of negative biotic interactions along an abiotic stress gradient under realistic land-use conditions. Under competition and mollusk herbivory, growth performance was more strongly reduced in continental compared to oceanic species. Range types also differed in their responses to grassland management. Differences in survival between the congeneric species were found to be region-specific and largely unaffected by biotic interactions and land use. In consequence, our results suggest that local responses to biotic interactions and land-use practices of otherwise very similar plant species can differ strongly depending on species' large-scale geographical distribution. Regionally differing responses to biotic interactions also show that local conditions can drastically change responses expected from macroecological theory.

Climatic niche characteristics of native and invasive Lilium lancifolium

One of the topics currently under discussion in biological invasions is whether the species' climatic niche has been conserved or, alternatively, has diverged during invasions. Here, we explore niche dynamic processes using the complex invasion history model of Lilium lancifolium, which is the first tested case of a native species (Korea) with two hypothesized spatial (regional and intercontinental) and temporal arrivals: (1) as an archaeophyte in East Asia (before AD 1500); and (2) as a neophyte in Europe, North America, Australia, and New Zealand (after AD 1500). Following a niche examination through both environmental and geographical spaces, the species in the archaeophyte range has apparently filled the ancestral native niche and, rather, would have increased it considerably. The species as a neophyte shows a closer climatic match with the archaeophyte range than with the native one. This pattern of niche similarity suggests that the neophyte range was probably colonized by a subset of archaeophyte propagules adapted to local climate that promoted the species' establishment. Overall, niche conservatism is proposed at each colonization step, from native to archaeophyte, and from archaeophyte to neophyte ranges. We detected signals of an advanced invasion stage within the archaeophyte range and traces of an early introduction stage in neophyte ranges.

Species' Range Dynamics Affect the Evolution of Spatial Variation in Plasticity under Environmental Change

While clines in environmental tolerance and phenotypic plasticity along a single species' range have been reported repeatedly and are of special interest in the context of adaptation to environmental changes, we know little about their evolution. Recent empirical findings in ectotherms suggest that processes underlying dynamic species' ranges can give rise to spatial differences in environmental tolerance and phenotypic plasticity within species. We used individual-based simulations to investigate how plasticity and tolerance evolve in the course of three scenarios of species' range shifts and range expansions on environmental gradients. We found that regions of a species' range that experienced a longer history or larger extent of environmental change generally exhibited increased plasticity or tolerance. Such regions may be at the trailing edge when a species is tracking its ecological niche in space (e.g., in a climate change scenario) or at the front edge when a species expands into a new habitat (e.g., in an expansion/invasion scenario). Elevated tolerance and plasticity in the distribution center was detected when asymmetric environmental change (e.g., polar amplification) led to a range expansion. However, tolerance and plasticity clines were transient and slowly flattened out after range dynamics because of genetic assimilation.

Forthcoming risk of Prosopis juliflora global invasion triggered by climate change: implications for environmental monitoring and risk assessment

Climate is a determinant factor in species distribution and climate change will affect the species abilities to occupy geographic regions. Prosopis juliflora is one of the most problematic invasive species and its biological invasion causes various negative effects in tropical, arid, and semi-arid regions of the world. As eradication efforts subsequent to the establishment of an alien invasive species are costly and time-consuming, assessing patterns of the introduction of an invasive species to new regions is among the most cost-effective means of monitoring and management of natural ecosystems. In this study by using the concept of species distribution modeling (SDM) and maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method, the effect of climate change on the current and future distribution of P. juliflora has been assessed at a global scale. Bioclimatic variables in current condition and 2050 regarding two global circulation models (GCM) and two climate change scenarios were considered as explanatory variables. Our results showed that annual mean temperature (BIO1), annual precipitation (BIO12), and temperature mean diurnal range (BIO2) represented more than 87% of the variations in the model, and with an AUC of 0.854 and TSS of 0.51, the model showed a good predictive performance. Our results indicate that on a global scale, suitable ranges for P. juliflora increase across all the GCM and RCP scenarios. In a global scale, Mediterranean Basin, Middle East, and North America are regions with the highest risk of range expansion in the future. Regarding the negative impacts of P. juliflora on structure and function of natural habitats in the invaded areas, findings of this study could be considered as a warning appliance for the environmental monitoring of the regions highly sensitive to the global invasion of the species. We suggest that assessing impacts of climate change on the global distribution of the invasive species could be used as an efficient tool to implement broad-scale and priority-setting monitoring programs in natural ecosystems.

Climatic niche shift and possible future spread of the invasive South African Orchid Disa bracteata in Australia and adjacent areas

Orchids are generally regarded as plants with an insignificant invasive potential and so far only one species has proved to be harmful for native flora. However, previous studies on Epipactis helleborine and Arundina graminifolia indicate that the ecological aspects of range extension in their non-native geographical range are not the same for all species of orchids. Disa bracteata in its native range, South Africa, is categorized as of little concern in terms of conservation whereas in Australia it is naturalized and considered to be an environmental weed. The aim of this research was to determine the ecological preferences enabling the spread of Disa bracteata in Western and South Australia, Victoria and Tasmania and to evaluate the effect of future climate change on its potential range. The ecological niche modeling approach indicates that most of the accessible areas are already occupied by this species but future expansion will continue based on four climate change scenarios (rcp26, rcp45, rcp60, rcp85). Further expansion is predicted especially in eastern Australia and eastern Tasmania. Moreover, there are some unpopulated but suitable habitats in New Zealand, which according to climate change scenarios will become even more suitable in the future. The most striking result of this study is the significant difference between the environmental conditions recorded in the areas which D. bracteata naturally inhabits and invasive sites-that indicates a possible niche shift. In Australia the studied species continues to populate a new niche or exploit habitats that are only moderately represented in South Africa.

Annual temperature variation as a time machine to understand the effects of long-term climate change on a poleward range shift

Range shifts due to annual variation in temperature are more tractable than range shifts linked to decadal to century long temperature changes due to climate change, providing natural experiments to determine the mechanisms responsible for driving long-term distributional shifts. In this study we couple physiologically grounded mechanistic models with biogeographic surveys in 2 years with high levels of annual temperature variation to disentangle the drivers of a historical range shift driven by climate change. The distribution of the barnacle Semibalanus balanoides has shifted 350 km poleward in the past half century along the east coast of the United States. Recruits were present throughout the historical range following the 2015 reproductive season, when temperatures were similar to those in the past century, and absent following the 2016 reproductive season when temperatures were warmer than they have been since 1870, the earliest date for temperature records. Our dispersal dependent mechanistic models of reproductive success were highly accurate and predicted patterns of reproduction success documented in field surveys throughout the historical range in 2015 and 2016. Our mechanistic models of reproductive success not only predicted recruitment dynamics near the range edge but also predicted interior range fragmentation in a number of years between 1870 and 2016. All recruits monitored within the historical range following the 2015 colonization died before 2016 suggesting juvenile survival was likely the primary driver of the historical range retraction. However, if 2016 is indicative of future temperatures mechanisms of range limitation will shift and reproductive failure will lead to further range retraction in the future. Mechanistic models are necessary for accurately predicting the effects of climate change on ranges of species.

Assessment of the effect of climate changes in the Late Pleistocene and Holocene on niche conservatism of an arvicolid specialist

Climate change is not only evident, but its implications on biodiversity are already patent. The scientific community has delved into the limitations and capabilities of species to face changes in climatic conditions through experimental studies and, primarily, Species Distribution Models (SDMs). Nevertheless, the widespread use of SDMs comes with some intrinsic assumptions, such as niche conservatism, which are not always true. Alternatively, the fossil record can provide additional data to solve the uncertainties of species’ responses to climate change based on their history. Using a combined environmental (niche overlap indices) and geographical approach (temporal transferability of SDMs), we assessed the niche conservatism of Microtus cabrerae throughout its evolutionary history: the Late Pleistocene and the Holocene. The set of analyses performed within this timeframe provides a broad view pointing to a shift in the realized climatic niche of the species. Specifically, M. cabrerae exhibited a broader niche during glacial times than interglacial times, expanding towards novel conditions. Hence, the species might have developed an adaptive ability, as a consequence of mechanisms of local adaptation or natural pressures, or just be preadapted to cope with the novel environment, due to expansion into an unfilled portion of the niche. Nevertheless, the more restricted realized niche during last interglacial times reveals that the species could be close to its physiological limits.

Global realized niche divergence in the African clawed frog Xenopus laevis

Although of crucial importance for invasion biology and impact assessments of climate change, it remains widely unknown how species cope with and adapt to environmental conditions beyond their currently realized climatic niches (i.e., those climatic conditions existing populations are exposed to). The African clawed frog Xenopus laevis, native to southern Africa, has established numerous invasive populations on multiple continents making it a pertinent model organism to study environmental niche dynamics. In this study, we assess whether the realized niches of the invasive populations in Europe, South, and North America represent subsets of the species’ realized niche in its native distributional range or if niche shifts are traceable. If shifts are traceable, we ask whether the realized niches of invasive populations still contain signatures of the niche of source populations what could indicate local adaptations. Univariate comparisons among bioclimatic conditions at native and invaded ranges revealed the invasive populations to be nested within the variable range of the native population. However, at the same time, invasive populations are well differentiated in multidimensional niche space as quantified via n‐dimensional hypervolumes. The most deviant invasive population are those from Europe. Our results suggest varying degrees of realized niche shifts, which are mainly driven by temperature related variables. The crosswise projection of the hypervolumes that were trained in invaded ranges revealed the south‐western Cape region as likely area of origin for all invasive populations, which is largely congruent with DNA sequence data and suggests a gradual exploration of novel climate space in invasive populations.

Biotic and abiotic factors predicting the global distribution and population density of an invasive large mammal

Biotic and abiotic factors are increasingly acknowledged to synergistically shape broad-scale species distributions. However, the relative importance of biotic and abiotic factors in predicting species distributions is unclear. In particular, biotic factors, such as predation and vegetation, including those resulting from anthropogenic land-use change, are underrepresented in species distribution modeling, but could improve model predictions. Using generalized linear models and model selection techniques, we used 129 estimates of population density of wild pigs (Sus scrofa) from 5 continents to evaluate the relative importance, magnitude, and direction of biotic and abiotic factors in predicting population density of an invasive large mammal with a global distribution. Incorporating diverse biotic factors, including agriculture, vegetation cover, and large carnivore richness, into species distribution modeling substantially improved model fit and predictions. Abiotic factors, including precipitation and potential evapotranspiration, were also important predictors. The predictive map of population density revealed wide-ranging potential for an invasive large mammal to expand its distribution globally. This information can be used to proactively create conservation/management plans to control future invasions. Our study demonstrates that the ongoing paradigm shift, which recognizes that both biotic and abiotic factors shape species distributions across broad scales, can be advanced by incorporating diverse biotic factors.

Climatic niche divergence and habitat suitability of eight alien invasive weeds in China under climate change

Testing climatic niche divergence and modeling habitat suitability under conditions of climate change are important for developing strategies to limit the introduction and expansion of alien invasive weeds (AIWs) and providing important ecological and evolutionary insights. We assessed climatic niches in both native and invasive ranges as well as habitat suitability under climate change for eight representative Chinese AIWs from the American continent. We used climatic variables associated with occurrence records and developed ecological niche models with Maxent. Interestingly, the climatic niches of all eight AIWs diverged significantly between the native and invasive ranges (the American continent and China). Furthermore, the AIWs showed larger climatic niche breadths in the invasive ranges than in the native ranges. Our results suggest that climatic niche shifts between native and invasive ranges occurred. Thus, the occurrence records of both native and invasive regions must be considered when modeling and predicting the spatial distributions of AIWs under current and future climate scenarios. Owing to high habitat suitability, AIWs were more likely to expand into regions of low latitude, and future climate change was predicted to result in a shift in the AIWs in Qinghai and Tibet (regions of higher altitude) as well as Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu (regions of higher latitude). Our results suggest that we need measures to prevent and control AIW expansion at the country-wide level.

Invasions and extinctions through the looking glass of evolutionary ecology

Invasive and endangered species reflect opposite ends of a spectrum of ecological success, yet they experience many similar eco-evolutionary challenges including demographic bottlenecks, hybridization and novel environments. Despite these similarities, important differences exist. Demographic bottlenecks are more transient in invasive species, which (i) maintains ecologically relevant genetic variation, (ii) reduces mutation load, and (iii) increases the efficiency of natural selection relative to genetic drift. Endangered species are less likely to benefit from admixture, which offsets mutation load but also reduces fitness when populations are locally adapted. Invading species generally experience more benign environments with fewer natural enemies, which increases fitness directly and also indirectly by masking inbreeding depression. Adaptive phenotypic plasticity can maintain fitness in novel environments but is more likely to evolve in invasive species encountering variable habitats and to be compromised by demographic factors in endangered species. Placed in an eco-evolutionary context, these differences affect the breadth of the ecological niche, which arises as an emergent property of antagonistic selection and genetic constraints. Comparative studies of invasions and extinctions that apply an eco-evolutionary perspective could provide new insights into the environmental and genetic basis of ecological success in novel environments and improve efforts to preserve global biodiversity.This article is part of the themed issue 'Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences'.

Is There Any Evidence for Rapid, Genetically-Based, Climatic Niche Expansion in the Invasive Common Ragweed?

Climatic niche shifts have been documented in a number of invasive species by comparing the native and adventive climatic ranges in which they occur. However, these shifts likely represent changes in the realized climatic niches of invasive species, and may not necessarily be driven by genetic changes in climatic affinities. Until now the role of rapid niche evolution in the spread of invasive species remains a challenging issue with conflicting results. Here, we document a likely genetically-based climatic niche expansion of an annual plant invader, the common ragweed (Ambrosia artemisiifolia L.), a highly allergenic invasive species causing substantial public health issues. To do so, we looked for recent evolutionary change at the upward migration front of its adventive range in the French Alps. Based on species climatic niche models estimated at both global and regional scales we stratified our sampling design to adequately capture the species niche, and localized populations suspected of niche expansion. Using a combination of species niche modeling, landscape genetics models and common garden measurements, we then related the species genetic structure and its phenotypic architecture across the climatic niche. Our results strongly suggest that the common ragweed is rapidly adapting to local climatic conditions at its invasion front and that it currently expands its niche toward colder and formerly unsuitable climates in the French Alps (i.e. in sites where niche models would not predict its occurrence). Such results, showing that species climatic niches can evolve on very short time scales, have important implications for predictive models of biological invasions that do not account for evolutionary processes.

Expansion load and the evolutionary dynamics of a species range

Expanding populations incur a mutation burden, the so-called expansion load. Using a mixture of individual-based simulations and analytical modeling, we study the expansion load process in models where population growth depends on the population's fitness (i.e., hard selection). We show that expansion load can severely slow down expansions and limit a species' range, even in the absence of environmental variation. We also study the effect of recombination on the dynamics of a species range and on the evolution of mean fitness on the wave front. If recombination is strong, mean fitness on front approaches an equilibrium value at which the effects of fixed mutations cancel each other out. The equilibrium rate at which new demes are colonized is similar to the rate at which beneficial mutations spread through the core. Without recombination, the dynamics is more complex, and beneficial mutations from the core of the range can invade the front of the expansion, which results in irregular and episodic expansion. Although the rate of adaptation is generally higher in recombining organisms, the mean fitness on the front may be larger in the absence of recombination because high-fitness individuals from the core have a higher chance to invade the front. Our findings have important consequences for the evolutionary dynamics of species ranges as well as on the role and the evolution of recombination during range expansions.

Ecological niche models of invasive seaweeds

Ecological niche models (ENMs) are commonly used to calculate habitat suitability from species' occurrence and macroecological data. In invasive species biology, ENMs can be applied to anticipate whether invasive species are likely to establish in an area, to identify critical routes and arrival points, to build risk maps and to predict the extent of potential spread following an introduction. Most studies using ENMs focus on terrestrial organisms and applications in the marine realm are still relatively rare. Here, we review some common methods to build ENMs and their application in seaweed invasion biology. We summarize methods and concepts involved in the development of niche models, show examples of how they have been applied in studies on algae and discuss the application of ENMs in invasive algae research and to predict effects of climate change on seaweed distributions.

Limits to adaptation along environmental gradients

Why do species not adapt to ever-wider ranges of conditions, gradually expanding their ecological niche and geographic range? Gene flow across environments has two conflicting effects: although it increases genetic variation, which is a prerequisite for adaptation, gene flow may swamp adaptation to local conditions. In 1956, Haldane proposed that, when the environment varies across space, "swamping" by gene flow creates a positive feedback between low population size and maladaptation, leading to a sharp range margin. However, current deterministic theory shows that, when variance can evolve, there is no such limit. Using simple analytical tools and simulations, we show that genetic drift can generate a sharp margin to a species' range, by reducing genetic variance below the level needed for adaptation to spatially variable conditions. Aided by separation of ecological and evolutionary timescales, the identified effective dimensionless parameters reveal a simple threshold that predicts when adaptation at the range margin fails. Two observable parameters determine the threshold: (i) the effective environmental gradient, which can be measured by the loss of fitness due to dispersal to a different environment; and (ii) the efficacy of selection relative to genetic drift. The theory predicts sharp range margins even in the absence of abrupt changes in the environment. Furthermore, it implies that gradual worsening of conditions across a species' habitat may lead to a sudden range fragmentation, when adaptation to a wide span of conditions within a single species becomes impossible.

Evidence for rapid ecological range expansion in a newly invasive plant

Little is known about how an introduced species may expand its ecological range, i.e. the set of local environmental conditions in which it can successfully establish populations. Delimiting this range of conditions is a methodological challenge, because it is impossible to sample all potential field locations for any species in a given region. Developing approaches to track ecological range over time could substantially contribute to understanding invasion dynamics. In this study, we use a previously established sampling strategy to document apparent changes across a 15-year time interval in the ecological range of the Asian annual Polygonum cespitosum Blume in northeastern North America, where the species has recently become invasive. Using a structured sample drawn from a large set of field populations, we determined the range of light, soil moisture and soil nutrient conditions that the species currently occupies in this region and the proportional distribution of individuals in differing types of microsite, and compared them with field measurements that were similarly determined 15 years earlier. Although in 1994 the species was absent from both high-light and flooded habitats, in 2009 P. cespitosum occurred in open as well as shaded habitats, across a wide range of moisture conditions. In 2009 the species also occupied a greater proportion of high-light microsites within field sites than in 1994. These findings suggest an expanded ecological range that, intriguingly, is consistent with the recent evolution in North American P. cespitosum populations of adaptive plasticity in response to high light. Possible non-evolutionary explanations for the change in field distribution are also considered.

Predicting the potential invasion suitability of regions to cassava lacebug pests (Heteroptera: Tingidae: Vatiga spp.)

Cassava (Manihot esculenta Crantz) is one of the most important staple crops for small farmers in the tropics, feeding about 800 million people worldwide. It is currently cultivated in South and Central America, Africa and Asia. The genus Vatiga is widespread throughout the Neotropical region. Its species are sympatric and feed exclusively on cassava. The main objectives of this paper are: (1) to assess the potential distribution of Vatiga, one of the most relevant pests of cassava; (2) to project the resulting models onto the world; (3) to recognize areas with suitable and optimal climates (and thus, high probability) for future colonization, and (4) to compare this model with the harvested area of cassava analyzing the climatic variables required by both the host and the pest species. Species distribution models were built using Maxent (v3.3.3k) with bioclimatic variables from the WorldClim database in 2.5 arc min resolution across the globe. Our model shows that Vatiga has the potential to expand its current distribution into other suitable areas, and could invade other regions where cassava is already cultivated, e.g., Central Africa and Asia. Considering the results and the high host specificity of Vatiga, its recent appearance in Réunion Island (Africa) poses a serious threat, as nearby areas are potentially suitable for invasion and could serve as dispersal routes enabling Vatiga to reach the continent. The present work may help prevention or early detection of Vatiga spp. in areas where cassava is grown.

Climatic niche conservatism and biogeographical non-equilibrium in Eschscholzia californica (Papaveraceae), an invasive plant in the Chilean Mediterranean region

Species climate requirements are useful for predicting their geographic distribution. It is often assumed that the niche requirements for invasive plants are conserved during invasion, especially when the invaded regions share similar climate conditions. California and central Chile have a remarkable degree of convergence in their vegetation structure, and a similar Mediterranean climate. Such similarities make these geographic areas an interesting natural experiment for testing climatic niche dynamics and the equilibrium of invasive species in a new environment. We tested to see if the climatic niche of Eschscholzia californica is conserved in the invaded range (central Chile), and we assessed whether the invasion process has reached a biogeographical equilibrium, i.e., occupy all the suitable geographic locations that have suitable conditions under native niche requirements. We compared the climatic niche in the native and invaded ranges as well as the projected potential geographic distribution in the invaded range. In order to compare climatic niches, we conducted a Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and Species Distribution Models (SDMs), to estimate E. californica's potential geographic distribution. We also used SDMs to predict altitudinal distribution limits in central Chile. Our results indicated that the climatic niche occupied by E. californica in the invaded range is firmly conserved, occupying a subset of the native climatic niche but leaving a substantial fraction of it unfilled. Comparisons of projected SDMs for central Chile indicate a similarity, yet the projection from native range predicted a larger geographic distribution in central Chile compared to the prediction of the model constructed for central Chile. The projected niche occupancy profile from California predicted a higher mean elevation than that projected from central Chile. We concluded that the invasion process of E. californica in central Chile is consistent with climatic niche conservatism but there is potential for further expansion in Chile.

Realized niche shift during a global biological invasion

Accurate forecasts of biological invasions are crucial for managing invasion risk but are hampered by niche shifts resulting from evolved environmental tolerances (fundamental niche shifts) or the presence of novel biotic and abiotic conditions in the invaded range (realized niche shifts). Distinguishing between these kinds of niche shifts is impossible with traditional, correlative approaches to invasion forecasts, which exclusively consider the realized niche. Here we overcome this challenge by combining a physiologically mechanistic model of the fundamental niche with correlative models based on the realized niche to study the global invasion of the cane toad Rhinella marina. We find strong evidence that the success of R. marina in Australia reflects a shift in the species' realized niche, as opposed to evolutionary shifts in range-limiting traits. Our results demonstrate that R. marina does not fill its fundamental niche in its native South American range and that areas of niche unfilling coincide with the presence of a closely related species with which R. marina hybridizes. Conversely, in Australia, where coevolved taxa are absent, R. marina largely fills its fundamental niche in areas behind the invasion front. The general approach taken here of contrasting fundamental and realized niche models provides key insights into the role of biotic interactions in shaping range limits and can inform effective management strategies not only for invasive species but also for assisted colonization under climate change.