Cryptic no more: soil macrofossils uncover Pleistocene forest microrefugia within a periglacial desert

Decametric-scale buffering of climate extremes in forest understory within a riparian microrefugia: the key role of microtopography

Riparian corridors often act as low-land climate refugia for temperate tree species in their southern distribution range. A plausible mechanism is the buffering of regional climate extremes by local physiographic and biotic factors. We tested this idea using a 3-year-long microclimate dataset collected along the Ciron river, a refugia for European beech (Fagus sylvatica) in southwestern France. Across the whole network, canopy gap fraction was the main predictor for spatial microclimatic variations, together with two other landscape features (elevation above the river and woodland fraction within a 300m radius). However, within the riparian forest only (canopy gap fraction < 25%, distance to the river < 150m), variations of up to -4°C and + 15% in summertime daily maximum air temperature and minimum relative humidity, respectively, were still found from the plateau to the cooler, moister river banks, only ~ 5-10m below. Elevation above the river was then identified as the main predictor, and explained the marked variations from the plateau to the banks much better than canopy gap fraction. The microclimate measured near the river is as cool but moister than the macroclimate encountered at 700-1000m asl further east in F. sylvatica's main distribution range. Indeed, at all locations, we found that air relative humidity was higher than expected from a temperature-only effect, suggesting that extra moisture is brought by the river. Our results explain well why beech trees in this climate refugium are restricted to the river gorges where microtopographic variations are the strongest and canopy gaps are rare.

Plant kleptomaniacs: geographical genetic patterns in the amphi-apomictic Rubus ser. Glandulosi (Rosaceae) reveal complex reticulate evolution of Eurasian brambles

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Rubus ser. Glandulosi provides a unique model of geographical parthenogenesis on a homoploid (2n = 4x) level. We aim to characterize evolutionary and phylogeographical patterns in this taxon and shed light on the geographical differentiation of apomicts and sexuals. Ultimately, we aim to evaluate the importance of phylogeography in the formation of geographical parthenogenesis.

METHODS

Rubus ser. Glandulosi was sampled across its Eurasian range together with other co-occurring Rubus taxa (587 individuals in total). Double-digest restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (ddRADseq) and modelling of suitable climate were used for evolutionary inferences.

KEY RESULTS

Six ancestral species were identified that contributed to the contemporary gene pool of R. ser. Glandulosi. Sexuals were introgressed from Rubus dolichocarpus and Rubus moschus in West Asia and from Rubus ulmifolius agg., Rubus canescens and Rubus incanescens in Europe, whereas apomicts were characterized by alleles of Rubus subsect. Rubus. Gene flow between sexuals and apomicts was also detected, as was occasional hybridization with other taxa.

CONCLUSIONS

We hypothesize that sexuals survived the last glacial period in several large southern refugia, whereas apomicts were mostly restricted to southern France, whence they quickly recolonized Central and Western Europe. The secondary contact of sexuals and apomicts was probably the principal factor that established geographical parthenogenesis in R. ser. Glandulosi. Sexual populations are not impoverished in genetic diversity along their borderline with apomicts, and maladaptive population genetic processes probably did not shape the geographical patterns.

A Continuous Centennial Late Glacial-Early Holocene (15-10 cal kyr BP) Palynological Record from the Iberian Pyrenees and Regional Comparisons

This paper presents the first continuous (gap-free) Late Glacial-Early Holocene (LGEH) pollen record for the Iberian Pyrenees resolved at centennial resolution. The main aims are (i) to provide a standard chronostratigraphic correlation framework, (ii) to unravel the relationships between vegetation shifts, climatic changes and fire, and (iii) to obtain a regional picture of LGEH vegetation for the Pyrenees and the surrounding lowlands. Seven pollen assemblage zones were obtained and correlated with the stadial/interstadial phases of the Greenland ice cores that serve as a global reference. Several well-dated datums were also derived for keystone individual taxa that are useful for correlation purposes. Four vegetation types were identified, two of them corresponding to conifer and deciduous forests (Cf, Df) and two representing open vegetation types (O1, O2) with no modern analogs, dominated by Artemisia-Poaceae and Saxifraga-Cichorioideae, respectively. Forests dominated during interstadial phases (Bølling/Allerød and Early Holocene), whereas O1 dominated during stadials (Oldest Dryas and Younger Dryas), with O2 being important only in the first half of the Younger Dryas. The use of pollen-independent proxies for temperature and moisture allowed the reconstruction of paleoclimatic trends and the responses of the four vegetation types defined. The most relevant observation in this sense was the finding of wet climates during the Younger Dryas, which challenges the traditional view of arid conditions for this phase on the basis of former pollen records. Fire incidence was low until the Early Holocene, when regional fires were exacerbated, probably due to the combination of higher temperatures and forest biomass accumulation. These results are compared with the pollen records available for the whole Pyrenean range and the surrounding lowlands within the framework of elevational, climatic and biogeographical gradients. Some potential future developments are suggested on the basis of the obtained results, with an emphasis on the reconsideration of the LGEH spatiotemporal moisture patterns and the comparison of the Pyrenees with other European ranges from different climatic and biogeographical regions.

Cool microrefugia accumulate and conserve biodiversity under climate change

A major challenge in climate change biology is to explain why the impacts of climate change vary around the globe. Microclimates could explain some of this variation, but climate change biologists often overlook microclimates because they are difficult to map. Here, we map microclimates in a freshwater rock pool ecosystem and evaluate how accounting for microclimates alters predictions of climate change impacts on aquatic invertebrates. We demonstrate that average maximum temperature during the growing season can differ by 9.9-11.6°C among microclimates less than a meter apart and this microclimate variation might increase by 21% in the future if deeper pools warm less than shallower pools. Accounting for this microclimate variation significantly alters predictions of climate change impacts on aquatic invertebrates. Predictions that exclude microclimates predict low future occupancy (0.08-0.32) and persistence probabilities (2%-73%) for cold-adapted taxa, and therefore predict decreases in gamma richness and a substantial shift toward warm-adapted taxa in local communities (i.e., thermophilization). However, predictions incorporating microclimates suggest cool locations will remain suitable for cold-adapted taxa in the future, no change in gamma richness, and 825% less thermophilization. Our models also suggest that cool locations will become suitable for warm-adapted taxa and will therefore accumulate biodiversity in the future, which makes cool locations essential for biodiversity conservation. Simulated protection of the 10 coolest microclimates (9% of locations on the landscape) results in a 100% chance of conserving all focal taxa in the future. In contrast, protecting the 10 currently most biodiverse locations, a commonly employed conservation strategy, results in a 3% chance of conserving all focal taxa in the future. Our study suggests that we must account for microclimates if we hope to understand the future impacts of climate change and design effective conservation strategies to limit biodiversity loss.

Weak population spatial genetic structure and low infraspecific specificity for fungal partners in the rare mycoheterotrophic orchid Epipogium aphyllum

Some plants abandoned photosynthesis and developed full dependency on fungi for nutrition. Most of the so-called mycoheterotrophic plants exhibit high specificity towards their fungal partners. We tested whether natural rarity of mycoheterotrophic plants and usual small and fluctuating population size make their populations more prone to genetic differentiation caused by restricted gene flow and/or genetic drift. We also tested whether these genetic characteristics might in turn shape divergent fungal preferences. We studied the mycoheterotrophic orchid Epipogium aphyllum, addressing the joint issues of genetic structure of its populations over Europe and possible consequences for mycorrhizal specificity within the associated fungal taxa. Out of 27 sampled E. aphyllum populations, nine were included for genetic diversity assessment using nine nuclear microsatellites and plastid DNA. Population genetic structure was inferred based on the total number of populations. Individuals from 17 locations were included into analysis of genetic identity of mycorrhizal fungi of E. aphyllum based on barcoding by nuclear ribosomal DNA. Epipogium aphyllum populations revealed high genetic diversity (uHe = 0.562) and low genetic differentiation over vast distances (F_ST = 0.106 for nuclear microsatellites and F_ST = 0.156 for plastid DNA). Bayesian clustering analyses identified only two genetic clusters, with a high degree of admixture. Epipogium aphyllum genets arise from panmixia and display locally variable, but relatively high production of ramets, as shown by a low value of rarefied genotypic richness (R_r = 0.265). Epipogium aphyllum genotype control over partner selection was negligible as (1) we found ramets from a single genetic individual associated with up to 68% of the known Inocybe spp. associating with the plant species, (2) and partner identity did not show any geographic structure. The absence of mosaicism in the mycorrhizal specificity over Europe may be linked to preferential allogamous habit of E. aphyllum and significant gene flow, which tend to promote host generalism.

Genetic signatures of divergent selection in European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) are associated with the variation in temperature and precipitation across its distribution range

High genetic variation and extensive gene flow may help forest trees with adapting to ongoing climate change, yet the genetic bases underlying their adaptive potential remain largely unknown. We investigated range-wide patterns of potentially adaptive genetic variation in 64 populations of European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) using 270 SNPs from 139 candidate genes involved either in phenology or in stress responses. We inferred neutral genetic structure and processes (drift and gene flow) and performed differentiation outlier analyses and gene-environment association (GEA) analyses to detect signatures of divergent selection. Beech range-wide genetic structure was consistent with the species' previously identified postglacial expansion scenario and recolonization routes. Populations showed high diversity and low differentiation along the major expansion routes. A total of 52 loci were found to be putatively under selection and 15 of them turned up in multiple GEA analyses. Temperature and precipitation related variables were equally represented in significant genotype-climate associations. Signatures of divergent selection were detected in the same proportion for stress response and phenology-related genes. The range-wide adaptive genetic structure of beech appears highly integrated, suggesting a balanced contribution of phenology and stress-related genes to local adaptation, and of temperature and precipitation regimes to genetic clines. Our results imply a best-case scenario for the maintenance of high genetic diversity during range shifts in beech (and putatively other forest trees) with a combination of gene flow maintaining within-population neutral diversity and selection maintaining between-population adaptive differentiation.

Small spaces, big impacts: contributions of micro-environmental variation to population persistence under climate change

Individuals within natural populations can experience very different abiotic and biotic conditions across small spatial scales owing to microtopography and other micro-environmental gradients. Ecological and evolutionary studies often ignore the effects of micro-environment on plant population and community dynamics. Here, we explore the extent to which fine-grained variation in abiotic and biotic conditions contributes to within-population variation in trait expression and genetic diversity in natural plant populations. Furthermore, we consider whether benign microhabitats could buffer local populations of some plant species from abiotic stresses imposed by rapid anthropogenic climate change. If microrefugia sustain local populations and communities in the short term, other eco-evolutionary processes, such as gene flow and adaptation, could enhance population stability in the longer term. We caution, however, that local populations may still decline in size as they contract into rare microhabitats and microrefugia. We encourage future research that explicitly examines the role of the micro-environment in maintaining genetic variation within local populations, favouring the evolution of phenotypic plasticity at local scales and enhancing population persistence under global change.

Habitat preference differentiates the Holocene range dynamics but not barrier effects on two sympatric, congeneric trees (Tristaniopsis, Myrtaceae)

Niche partitioning can lead to differences in the range dynamics of plant species through its impacts on habitat availability, dispersal, or selection for traits that affect colonization and persistence. We investigated whether niche partitioning into upland and riparian habitats differentiates the range dynamics of two closely related and sympatric eastern Australian trees: the mountain water gum (Tristaniopsis collina) and the water gum (T. laurina). Using genomic data from SNP genotyping of 480 samples, we assessed the impact of biogeographic barriers and tested for signals of range expansion. Circuit theory was used to model isolation-by-resistance across three palaeo-environment scenarios: the Last Glacial Maximum, the Holocene Climate Optimum and present-day (1950-2014). Both trees showed similar genetic structure across historically dry barriers, despite evidence of significant environmental niche differentiation and different post-glacial habitat shifts. Tristaniopsis collina exhibits the signature of serial founder effects consistent with recent or rapid range expansion, whilst T. laurina has genetic patterns consistent with long-term persistence in geographically isolated populations despite occupying a broader bioclimatic niche. We found the minor influence of isolation-by-resistance on both species, though other unknown factors appear to shape genetic variation. We postulate that specialized recruitment traits (adapted to flood-disturbance regimes) rather than habitat availability limited post-glacial range expansion in T. laurina. Our findings indicate that niche breadth does not always facilitate range expansion through colonization and migration across barriers, though it can promote long-term persistence in situ.

Genomic evidence of survival near ice sheet margins for some, but not all, North American trees

Temperate species experienced dramatic range reductions during the Last Glacial Maximum, yet refugial populations from which modern populations are descended have never been precisely located. Climate-based models identify only broad areas of potential habitat, traditional phylogeographic studies provide poor spatial resolution, and pollen records for temperate forest communities are difficult to interpret and do not provide species-level taxonomic resolution. Here we harness signals of range expansion from large genomic datasets, using a simulation-based framework to infer the precise latitude and longitude of glacial refugia in two widespread, codistributed hickories (Carya spp.) and to quantify uncertainty in these estimates. We show that one species likely expanded from close to ice sheet margins near the site of a previously described macrofossil for the genus, highlighting support for the controversial notion of northern microrefugia. In contrast, the expansion origin inferred for the second species is compatible with classic hypotheses of distant displacement into southern refugia. Our statistically rigorous, powerful approach demonstrates how refugia can be located from genomic data with high precision and accuracy, addressing fundamental questions about long-term responses to changing climates and providing statistical insight into longstanding questions that have previously been addressed primarily qualitatively.

Approximate Bayesian computation analysis of EST-associated microsatellites indicates that the broadleaved evergreen tree Castanopsis sieboldii survived the Last Glacial Maximum in multiple refugia in Japan

Climatic changes have played major roles in plants' evolutionary history. Glacial oscillations have been particularly important, but some of their effects on plants' populations are poorly understood, including the numbers and locations of refugia in Asian warm temperate zones. In the present study, we investigated the demographic history of the broadleaved evergreen tree species Castanopsis sieboldii (Fagaceae) during the last glacial period in Japan. We used approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) for model comparison and parameter estimation for the demographic modeling using 27 EST-associated microsatellites. We also performed the species distribution modeling (SDM). The results strongly support a demographic scenario that the Ryukyu Islands and the western parts in the main islands (Kyushu and western Shikoku) were derived from separate refugia and the eastern parts in the main islands and the Japan Sea groups were diverged from the western parts prior to the coldest stage of the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). Our data indicate that multiple refugia survived at least one in the Ryukyu Islands, and the other three regions of the western and eastern parts and around the Japan Sea of the main islands of Japan during the LGM. The SDM analysis also suggests the potential habitats under LGM climate conditions were mainly located along the Pacific Ocean side of the coastal region. Our ABC-based study helps efforts resolve the demographic history of a dominant species in warm temperate broadleaved forests during and after the last glacial period, which provides a basic model for future phylogeographical studies using this approach.

Invoking adaptation to decipher the genetic legacy of past climate change

Persistence of natural populations during periods of climate change is likely to depend on migration (range shifts) or adaptation. These responses were traditionally considered discrete processes and conceptually divided into the realms of ecology and evolution. In a milestone paper, Davis and Shaw (2001) Science 292:673 argued that the interplay of adaptation and migration was central to biotic responses to Quaternary climate, but since then there has been no synthesis of efforts made to set up this research program. Here we review some of the salient findings from molecular genetic studies assessing ecological and evolutionary responses to Quaternary climate change. These studies have revolutionized our understanding of population processes associated with past species migration. However, knowledge remains limited about the role of natural selection for local adaptation of populations to Quaternary environmental fluctuations and associated range shifts, and for the footprints this might have left on extant populations. Next-generation sequencing technologies, high-resolution paleoclimate analyses, and advances in population genetic theory offer an unprecedented opportunity to test hypotheses about adaptation through time. Recent population genomics studies have greatly improved our understanding of the role of contemporary adaptation to local environments in shaping spatial patterns of genetic diversity across modern-day landscapes. Advances in this burgeoning field provide important conceptual and methodological bases to decipher the historical role of natural selection and assess adaptation to past environmental variation. We suggest that a process called "temporal conditional neutrality" has taken place: some alleles favored in glacial environments become selectively neutral in modern-day conditions, whereas some alleles that had been neutral during glacial periods become under selection in modern environments. Building on this view, we present a new integrative framework for addressing the interplay of demographic and adaptive evolutionary responses to Quaternary climate dynamics, the research agenda initially envisioned by Davis and Shaw (2001) Science 292:673.

Keep your feet warm? A cryptic refugium of trees linked to a geothermal spring in an ocean of glaciers

Up to now, the most widely accepted idea of the periglacial environment is that of treeless ecosystems such as the arctic or the alpine tundra, also called the tabula rasa paradigm. However, several palaeoecological studies have recently challenged this idea, that is, treeless environments in periglacial areas where all organisms would have been exterminated near the glacier formed during the Last Glacial Maximum, notably in the Scandinavian mountains. In the Alps, the issue of glacial refugia of trees remains unanswered. Advances in glacier reconstructions show that ice domes did not cover all upper massifs, but glaciers filled valleys. Here, we used fossils of plant and malacofauna from a travertine formation located in a high mountain region to demonstrate that trees (Pinus, Betula) grew with grasses during the Lateglacial-Holocene transition, while the glacier fronts were 200-300 m lower. The geothermal travertine started to accumulate more than 14,500 years ago, but became progressively more meteogene about 11,500 years ago due to a change in groundwater circulation. With trees, land snails (gastropods) associated to woody or open habitats and aquatic mollusc were also present at the onset of the current interglacial, namely the Holocene. The geothermal spring, due to warm water and soil, probably favoured woody glacial ecosystems. This new finding of early tree growth, combined with other scattered proofs of the tree presence before 11,000 years ago in the western Alps, changes our view of the tree distribution in periglacial environments, supporting the notion of tree refugia on nunataks in an ocean of glaciers. Therefore, the tabula rasa paradigm must be revisited because it has important consequences on the global changes, including postglacial plant migrations and biogeochemical cycles.

Glacial survival of trophically linked boreal species in northern Europe

Whether non-arctic species persisted in northern Europe during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is highly debated. Until now, the debate has mostly focused on plants, with little consideration for other groups of organisms, e.g. the numerous plant-dependent insect species. Here, we study the late-Quaternary evolution of the European range of a boreo-montane leaf beetle, Gonioctena intermedia, which feeds exclusively on the boreal and temperate trees Prunus padus and Sorbus aucuparia Using species distribution models, we estimated the congruence between areas of past and present suitable climate for this beetle and its host plants. Then we derived historical hypotheses from the congruent range estimates, and evaluated their compatibility with observed DNA sequence variation at five independent loci. We investigated compatibility using computer simulations of population evolution under various coalescence models. We find strong evidence for range modifications in response to late-Quaternary climate changes, and support for the presence of populations of G. intermedia in northern Europe since the beginning of the last glaciation. The presence of a co-dependent insect in the region through the LGM provides new evidence supporting the glacial survival of cold-tolerant tree species in northern Europe.

Too early and too northerly: evidence of temperate trees in northern Central Europe during the Younger Dryas

This paper presents highly unexpected paleobotanical data. Eight (14) C-accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) dates of soil macrocharcoal pieces, identified taxonomically, indicate the presence of oak and beech in the Younger Dryas, and pine in the Allerød, in the northernmost low mountain range of Central Europe, the Harz Mountains, in Germany. If the presence of pine at such latitude and periods is not surprising, the presence of temperate-adapted trees is highly improbable, because they are assumed to have reached the area from a southern location several thousand years later. Two hypotheses are postulated to explain this record. Both are related to the warm periods of the Bølling and Allerød: the classically 'short' duration of this warm period makes the migration of the temperate trees from the identified refuge areas in the southern location implausible, and so the presence of intermediary microrefugia at a medium latitude in Central Europe is postulated; recent data reveal that the warm period of the Late Glacial phase was much longer than considered in the classical view and, thus, would be long enough for a northward migration of temperate-adapted trees. Although our dataset does not permit disentanglement of these hypotheses, it provides significant innovative insights for the biogeography of Central Europe.

Recent similarity in distribution ranges does not mean a similar postglacial history: a phylogeographical study of the boreal tree species Alnus incana based on microsatellite and chloroplast DNA variation

We reconstructed the historical pattern of postglacial biogeographic range expansion of the boreal tree species Alnus incana in Europe. To assess population genetic structure and diversity, we performed a combined analysis of nuclear microsatellite loci and chloroplast DNA sequences (65 populations, 1004 individuals). Analysis of haplotype and microsatellite diversity revealed that southeastern refugial populations situated in the Carpathians and the Balkan Peninsula did not spread north and cannot be considered as important source populations for postglacial recolonization of Europe; populations in Eastern Europe did not establish Fennoscandian populations; populations in Fennoscandia and Eastern Europe have no unique genetic cluster, but represent a mix with a predominant cluster typical for Central Europe; and that colonization of Fennoscandia and Eastern Europe took place from Central Europe. Our findings highlight the importance of an effective refugium in Central Europe located outside classical southern refugia confirming the existence of northern refugia for boreal trees in Europe. The postglacial range expansion of A. incana did not follow the model established for Picea abies. Fennoscandian populations are not derived from Eastern European ones, but from Central European ones.

The extent and meaning of hybridization and introgression between Siberian spruce (Picea obovata) and Norway spruce (Picea abies): cryptic refugia as stepping stones to the west?

Boreal species were repeatedly exposed to ice ages and went through cycles of contraction and expansion while sister species alternated periods of contact and isolation. The resulting genetic structure is consequently complex, and demographic inferences are intrinsically challenging. The range of Norway spruce (Picea abies) and Siberian spruce (Picea obovata) covers most of northern Eurasia; yet their geographical limits and histories remain poorly understood. To delineate the hybrid zone between the two species and reconstruct their joint demographic history, we analysed variation at nuclear SSR and mitochondrial DNA in 102 and 88 populations, respectively. The dynamics of the hybrid zone was analysed with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) followed by posterior predictive structure plot reconstruction and the presence of barriers across the range tested with estimated effective migration surfaces. To estimate the divergence time between the two species, nuclear sequences from two well-separated populations of each species were analysed with ABC. Two main barriers divide the range of the two species: one corresponds to the hybrid zone between them, and the other separates the southern and northern domains of Norway spruce. The hybrid zone is centred on the Urals, but the genetic impact of Siberian spruce extends further west. The joint distribution of mitochondrial and nuclear variation indicates an introgression of mitochondrial DNA from Norway spruce into Siberian spruce. Overall, our data reveal a demographic history where the two species interacted frequently and where migrants originating from the Urals and the West Siberian Plain recolonized northern Russia and Scandinavia using scattered refugial populations of Norway spruce as stepping stones towards the west.

Higher genetic diversity in recolonized areas than in refugia of Alnus glutinosa triggered by continent-wide lineage admixture

Genetic admixture is supposed to be an important trigger of species expansions because it can create the potential for selection of genotypes suitable for new climatic conditions. Up until now, however, no continent-wide population genetic study has performed a detailed reconstruction of admixture events during natural species expansions. To fill this gap, we analysed the postglacial history of Alnus glutinosa, a keystone species of European swamp habitats, across its entire distribution range using two molecular markers, cpDNA and nuclear microsatellites. CpDNA revealed multiple southern refugia located in the Iberian, Apennine, Balkan and Anatolian Peninsulas, Corsica and North Africa. Analysis of microsatellites variation revealed three main directions of postglacial expansion: (i) from the northern part of the Iberian Peninsula to Western and Central Europe and subsequently to the British Isles, (ii) from the Apennine Peninsula to the Alps and (iii) from the eastern part of the Balkan Peninsula to the Carpathians followed by expansion towards the Northern European plains. This challenges the classical paradigm that most European populations originated from refugial areas in the Carpathians. It has been shown that colonizing lineages have met several times and formed secondary contact zones with unexpectedly high population genetic diversity in Central Europe and Scandinavia. On the contrary, limited genetic admixture in southern refugial areas of A. glutinosa renders rear-edge populations in the Mediterranean region more vulnerable to extinction due to climate change.

Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography

Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial-interglacial climate changes of the Quaternary. A critical research need is to better integrate and reconcile the three major lines of evidence used to infer the existence of past refugia - fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeographic surveys - in order to characterize the complex spatiotemporal trajectories of species and populations in and out of refugia. Here we review the complementary strengths, limitations and new advances for these three approaches. We provide case studies to illustrate their combined application, and point the way towards new opportunities for synthesizing these disparate lines of evidence. Case studies with European beech, Qinghai spruce and Douglas-fir illustrate how the combination of these three approaches successfully resolves complex species histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising new statistical techniques can capitalize on the strengths of each method and provide a robust quantitative reconstruction of species history. Studying past refugia can help identify contemporary refugia and clarify their conservation significance, in particular by elucidating the fine-scale processes and the particular geographic locations that buffer species against rapidly changing climate.