Widespread sampling biases in herbaria revealed from large-scale digitization

The promise of digital herbarium specimens in large-scale phenology research

The online mobilization of herbaria has made tens of millions of specimens digitally available, revolutionizing investigations of phenology and plant responses to climate change. We identify two main themes associated with this growing body of research and highlight a selection of recent publications exemplifying: investigating phenology at large spatial and temporal scales and in understudied locations and testing long-standing theories and novel questions in ecology and evolution that were not previously answerable. We explore strengths and limitations of using digitized herbarium specimens in phenology research, including: issues of sampling; reliability, transferability, and biases; and ethical and social justice considerations. This field will see further breakthroughs as herbaria around the world continue to mobilize and digitally interlink their collections. New developments will likely come from advances in technology, international collaborations, and including understudied plant taxa and regions such as the Arctic and the tropics. Advances in technology are already improving digitization workflows and speeding the collection of phenology data from digital specimens.

Long-term trends in global flowering phenology

Flowering phenology is an indicator of the impact of climate change on natural systems. Anthropogenic climate change has progressed over more than two centuries, but ecological studies are mostly short in comparison. Here we harness the large-scale digitization of herbaria specimens to investigate temporal trends in flowering phenology at a global scale. We trained a convolutional neural network model to classify images of angiosperm herbarium specimens as being in flower or not in flower. This model was used to infer flowering across 8 million specimens spanning a century and global scales. We investigated temporal trends in mean flowering date and flowering season duration within ecoregions. We found high diversity of temporal trends in flowering seasonality across ecoregions with a median absolute shift of 2.5 d per decade in flowering date and 1.4 d per decade in flowering season duration. Variability in temporal trends in phenology was higher at low latitudes than at high latitudes. Our study demonstrates the value of digitized herbarium specimens for understanding natural dynamics in a time of change. The higher variability in phenological trends at low latitudes likely reflects the effects of a combination of shifts in temperature and precipitation seasonality, together with lower photoperiodic constraints to flowering.

Incorporating citizen science into IUCN Red List assessments

Many citizen scientists are highly motivated to help address the current extinction crisis. Their work is making valuable contributions to protecting species by raising awareness, identifying species occurrences, assessing population trends, and informing direct management actions, such as captive breeding. However, clear guidance is lacking about how to use existing citizen science data sets and how to design effective citizen science programs that directly inform extinction risk assessments and resulting conservation actions based on the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List criteria. This may be because of a mismatch between what citizen science can deliver to address extinction risk and the reality of what is needed to inform threatened species listing based on IUCN criteria. To overcome this problem, we examined each IUCN Red List criterion (A-E) relative to the five major types of citizen science outputs relevant to IUCN assessments (occurrence data, presence-absence observations, structured surveys, physical samples, and narratives) to recommend which outputs are most suited to use when applying the IUCN extinction risk assessment process. We explored real-world examples of citizen science projects on amphibians and fungi that have delivered valuable data and knowledge for IUCN assessments. We found that although occurrence data are routinely used in the assessment process, simply adding more observations of occurrence from citizen science information may not be as valuable as inclusion of more nuanced data types, such as presence-absence data or information on threats from structured surveys. We then explored the characteristics of citizen science projects that have already delivered valuable data to support assessments. These projects were led by recognized experts who champion and validate citizen science data, thereby giving greater confidence in its accuracy. We urge increased recognition of the value of citizen science data within the assessment process.

Global Availability of Plant DNA Barcodes as Genomic Resources to Support Basic and Policy-Relevant Biodiversity Research

Genetic technologies such as DNA barcoding make it easier and less expensive to monitor biodiversity and its associated ecosystem services, particularly in biodiversity hotspots where traditional assessments are challenging. Successful use of these data-driven technologies, however, requires access to appropriate reference data. We reviewed the >373,584 reference plant DNA barcodes in public repositories and found that they cumulatively cover a remarkable quarter of the ~435,000 extant land plant species (Embryophyta). Nevertheless, coverage gaps in tropical biodiversity hotspots reflect well-documented biases in biodiversity science - most reference specimens originated in the Global North. Currently, at least 17% of plant families lack any reference barcode data whatsoever, affecting tropical and temperate regions alike. Investigators often emphasise the importance of marker choice and the need to ensure protocols are technically capable of detecting and identifying a broad range of taxa. Yet persistent geographic and taxonomic gaps in the reference datasets show that these protocols rely upon risk undermining all downstream applications of the strategy, ranging from basic biodiversity monitoring to policy-relevant objectives - such as the forensic authentication of materials in illegal trade. Future networks of investigators could work strategically to improve data coverage, which will be essential in global efforts to conserve biodiversity while advancing more fair and equitable access to benefits arising from genetic resources.

Reconstructing the introduction history of the invasive grass Taeniatherum caput-medusae subsp. asperum in the western United States: Low within-population genetic diversity does not preclude invasion

PREMISE

One of the main drivers of global change is biotic exchange, which leads to biological invasions. The genetic diversity and structure of invasive populations is influenced by multiple factors, most notably the details of a species' introduction, its pattern of range expansion, and its mating system. Taeniatherum caput-medusae subsp. asperum is a primarily self-pollinating, invasive, annual grass of the western United States (US).

METHODS

Using historical information (herbarium specimens and published reports) and genetic (allozyme) data, we reconstructed the introduction history and pattern of range expansion of T. caput-medusae subsp. asperum in its invasive range.

RESULTS

Herbarium collection data and published reports indicate that the grass was first collected near Roseburg, Oregon, in 1884 and then at Steptoe Butte, Washington, in 1901. Genetic analysis of 46 invasive populations of T. caput-medusae subsp. asperum detected seven homozygous multilocus genotypes (MLGs) across the western US. Several MLGs were found in localities associated with early collection sites. Only three of 1700 individuals we analyzed were heterozygous. Thus, high rates of self-pollination likely preserved the MLGs introduced into the western US and contributed to our ability to reconstruct the introduction history of this grass.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data are consistent with the pattern associated with multiple introductions and local or regional range expansion. Despite multiple introductions, invasive populations of T. caput-medusae subsp. asperum exhibit relatively low within-population genetic diversity (i.e., invasive populations possess low evolutionary potential). Apparently, low within-population genetic diversity does not preclude the invasion of this grass in the western US.

The changing biodiversity of the Arctic flora in the Anthropocene

The plants of the circumpolar Arctic occupy a dynamic system that has been shaped by glacial cycles and climate change on evolutionary timescales. Yet rapid climatic change can compromise the floristic diversity of the tundra, and the ecological and evolutionary changes in the Arctic from anthropogenic forces remain understudied. In this review, we synthesize knowledge of Arctic floral biodiversity across the entirety of the region within the context of its climatic history. We present critical gaps and challenges in modeling and documenting the consequences of anthropogenic changes for Arctic flora, informed by data from the Late Quaternary (~20 ka). We found that previous forecasts of Arctic plant responses to climate change indicate widespread reductions in habitable area with increasing shrub growth and abundance as a function of annual temperature increase. Such shifts in the distribution and composition of extant Arctic flora will likely increase with global climate through changes to the carbon cycle, necessitating a unified global effort in conserving these plants. More data and research on the continuity of tundra communities are needed to firmly assess the risk climate change poses to the Arctic.

What 'unexplored' means: mapping regions with digitized natural history records to look for 'biodiversity blindspots'

We examined global records of accessible natural history voucher collections (with publicly available data and reliable locality data) for terrestrial and freshwater vascular plants, fungi, freshwater fishes, birds, mammals, and herpetofauna (amphibians and reptiles) and highlight areas of the world that would be considered undersampled and sometimes called 'unexplored' (i.e., have relatively low, or no evidence of, past sampling efforts) under typical Western-scientific descriptions. We also question what 'unexplored' may mean in these contexts and explain how replacing the term in favor of more nuanced phrasing (e.g., 'biodiversity blindspots,' which emphasizes the lack of publicly available data about specimens) can mitigate future misunderstandings of natural history science. We also highlight geographic regions where there are relatively few or no publicly available natural history records to raise awareness about habitats that might be worthy of future natural history research and conservation. A major finding is that many of the areas that appear 'unexplored' may be in countries whose collections are not digitized (i.e., they don't have metadata such as GPS coordinates about their voucher specimens publicly available). We call for museums to prioritize digitizing those collections from these 'biodiversity blindspots' and for increased funding for museums to aid in these efforts. We also argue for increased scientific infrastructure so that more reference collections with vouchers can be kept in the countries of origin (particularly those countries lacking such infrastructure currently).

Continental-scale interactions of Australian showy mistletoes and their hosts

PREMISE

Showy mistletoes are obligate hemiparasites of woody plants. Host specificity is therefore a fundamental determinant of mistletoe diversity, persistence, geographic distribution, and abundance. Investigations of host specificity in Australian Loranthaceae have focused mostly on host range (taxon counts), but additional insights into specificity are gained by quantifying mistletoe prevalence on taxa in their host range and by exploring specificity in a phylogenetic context.

METHODS

We estimated measures of host specificity to characterize mistletoe-host interactions at a continental scale by using occurrence records in the Atlas of Living Australia. We calculated host taxon richness, mistletoe prevalence, and phylogenetic diversity, and used rarefaction curves to evaluate sampling coverage.

RESULTS

Many mistletoe taxa were represented by few records that listed the host, which often was identified to genus only. Mistletoe genera were recorded on 29 orders and 80 families, and no association was observed between host richness and number of records per genus. Rarefaction curves suggested that additional host orders and families remain to be discovered for Amylotheca, Decaisnina, Dendrophthoe, and Muellerina. Four mistletoe genera were most prevalent on Myrtales, one on Fabales, and one on Laurales. Rosids were most often the recorded hosts (84.3% of all records). We found evidence of significant phylogenetic clustering in host use by Amyema, Amylotheca, and Decasinina.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results, particularly the high prevalence on rosids, suggest that relationships of mistletoes with rainforest lineages may have been established early in the history of Australian Loranthaceae and that some lineages co-diversified with their hosts in arid regions.

Sequencing historical RNA: unrealized potential to increase understanding of the plant tree of life

Recent studies have demonstrated that it is a misconception that transcriptome sequencing requires tissue preserved at ultracold temperatures. Here, we outline the potential origins of this misconception and its possible role in biasing the geographic distribution of published plant transcriptomes. We highlight the importance of ensuring diverse sampling by providing an overview of the questions that transcriptomes can answer about the forces shaping the plant tree of life. We discuss how broadening transcriptome sequencing to include existing specimens will allow the field to grow and more fully utilize biological collections. We hope this article encourages the expansion of the current trend in 'herbariomics' research to include whole-transcriptome sequencing of historical RNA.

Leucheriapeteroana (Nassauvieae, Asteraceae), a new species of Leucheria endemic to the Andes of Central Chile, and insights into the systematics of Nassauviae

A new species, Leucheriapeteroana sp. nov., endemic to a restricted area of the Andes of Central Chile, is here described. Using newly sequenced nDNA and cpDNA data, the phylogenetic affinities of Leucheria and closely related taxa within Nassauvieae are revisited. This new species shows a unique set of characters that clearly distinguish it from other species of Leucheria. Phylogenetic analyses place this perennial species close to annual species found in the pre-Andean environments of Central Chile. A detailed description, distribution map, insights about its habitat, conservation status, and photographs are provided.

Herbarium specimens reveal links between leaf shape of Capsella bursa-pastoris and climate

PREMISE

Studies into the evolution and development of leaf shape have connected variation in plant form, function, and fitness. For species with consistent leaf margin features, patterns in leaf architecture are related to both biotic and abiotic factors. However, for species with inconsistent leaf shapes, quantifying variation in leaf shape and the effects of environmental factors on leaf shape has proven challenging.

METHODS

To investigate leaf shape variation in a species with inconsistently shaped leaves, we used geometric morphometric modeling and deterministic techniques to analyze approximately 500 digitized specimens of Capsella bursa-pastoris collected throughout the continental United States over 100 years. We generated a morphospace of the leaf shapes and modeled leaf shape as a function of environment and time.

RESULTS

Leaf shape variation of C. bursa-pastoris was strongly associated with temperature over its growing season, with lobing decreasing as temperature increased. While we expected to see changes in variation over time, our results show that the level of leaf shape variation was consistent over the 100 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings showed that species with inconsistent leaf shape variation can be quantified using geometric morphometric modeling techniques and that temperature is the main environmental factor influencing leaf shape variation.

Plant diversity darkspots for global collection priorities

More than 15% of all vascular plant species may remain scientifically undescribed, and many of the > 350 000 described species have no or few geographic records documenting their distribution. Identifying and understanding taxonomic and geographic knowledge shortfalls is key to prioritising future collection and conservation efforts. Using extensive data for 343 523 vascular plant species and time-to-event analyses, we conducted multiple tests related to plant taxonomic and geographic data shortfalls, and identified 33 global diversity darkspots (those 'botanical countries' predicted to contain most undescribed and not yet recorded species). We defined priority regions for future collection according to several socio-economic and environmental scenarios. Most plant diversity darkspots are found within global biodiversity hotspots, with the exception of New Guinea. We identify Colombia, Myanmar, New Guinea, Peru, Philippines and Turkey as global collection priorities under all environmental and socio-economic conditions considered. Our study provides a flexible framework to help accelerate the documentation of global plant diversity for the implementation of conservation actions. As digitisation of the world's herbaria progresses, collection and conservation priorities may soon be identifiable at finer scales.

Genetic variation in phenology of wild Arabidopsis thaliana plants

Phenology and the timing of development are often under selection, but at the same time influence selection on other traits by controlling how traits are expressed across seasons. Plants often exhibit high natural genetic variation in phenology when grown in controlled environments, and many genetic and molecular mechanisms underlying phenology have been dissected. There remains considerable diversity of germination and flowering time within populations in the wild and the contribution of genetics to phenological variation of wild plants is largely unknown. We obtained collection dates of naturally inbred Arabidopsis thaliana accessions from nature and compared them to experimental data on the descendant inbred lines that we synthesized from two new and 155 published controlled experiments. We tested whether the genetic variation in flowering and germination timing from experiments predicted the phenology of the same inbred lines in nature. We found that genetic variation in phenology from controlled experiments significantly, but weakly, predicts day of collection from the wild, even when measuring collection date with accumulated photothermal units. We found that experimental flowering time breeding values were correlated to wild flowering time at location of origin estimated from herbarium collections. However, local variation in collection dates within a region was not explained by genetic variation in experiments, suggesting high plasticity across small-scale environmental gradients. This apparent low heritability in natural populations may suggest strong selection or many generations are required for phenological adaptation and the emergence of genetic clines in phenology.

Genome size is positively correlated with extinction risk in herbaceous angiosperms

Angiosperms with large genomes experience nuclear-, cellular-, and organism-level constraints that may limit their phenotypic plasticity and ecological niche, which could increase their risk of extinction. Therefore, we test the hypotheses that large-genomed species are more likely to be threatened with extinction than those with small genomes, and that the effect of genome size varies across three selected covariates: life form, endemism, and climatic zone. We collated genome size and extinction risk information for a representative sample of angiosperms comprising 3250 species, which we analyzed alongside life form, endemism, and climatic zone variables using a phylogenetic framework. Genome size is positively correlated with extinction risk, a pattern driven by a signal in herbaceous but not woody species, regardless of climate and endemism. The influence of genome size is stronger in endemic herbaceous species, but is relatively homogenous across different climates. Beyond its indirect link via endemism and climate, genome size is associated with extinction risk directly and significantly. Genome size may serve as a proxy for difficult-to-measure parameters associated with resilience and vulnerability in herbaceous angiosperms. Therefore, it merits further exploration as a useful biological attribute for understanding intrinsic extinction risk and augmenting plant conservation efforts.

Predicting undetected native vascular plant diversity at a global scale

Vascular plants are diverse and a major component of terrestrial ecosystems, yet their geographic distributions remain incomplete. Here, I present a global database of vascular plant distributions by integrating species distribution models calibrated to species' dispersal ability and natural habitats to predict native range maps for 201,681 vascular plant species into unsurveyed areas. Using these maps, I uncover unique patterns of native vascular plant diversity, endemism, and phylogenetic diversity revealing hotspots in underdocumented biodiversity-rich regions. These hotspots, based on detailed species-level maps, show a pronounced latitudinal gradient, strongly supporting the theory of increasing diversity toward the equator. I trained random forest models to extrapolate diversity patterns under unbiased global sampling and identify overlaps with modeled estimations but unveiled cryptic hotspots that were not captured by modeled estimations. Only 29% to 36% of extrapolated plant hotspots are inside protected areas, leaving more than 60% outside and vulnerable. However, the unprotected hotspots harbor species with unique attributes that make them good candidates for conservation prioritization.

Species' geographical range, environmental range and traits lead to specimen collection preference of dominant plant species of grasslands in Northern China

Many different factors, such as species traits, socio-economic factors, geographical and environmental factors, can lead to specimen collection preference. This study aims to determine whether grassland specimen collection in China is preferred by species traits (i.e., plant height, flowering and fruiting period), environmental range (i.e., the temperature and precipitation range) and geographical range (i.e., distribution range and altitudinal range). Ordinary least squares models and phylogenetic generalized linear mixed models were used to analyze the relationships between specimen number and the explanatory variables. Random Forest models were then used to find the most parsimonious multivariate model. The results showed that interannual variation in specimen number between 1900 and 2020 was considerable. Specimen number of these species in southeast China was notably lower than that in northwest China. Environmental range and geographical range of species had significant positive correlations with specimen number. In addition, there were relatively weak but significant associations between specimen number and species trait (i.e., plant height and flowering and fruiting period). Random Forest models indicated that distribution range was the most important variable, followed by flowering and fruiting period, and altitudinal range. These findings suggest that future floristic surveys should pay more attention to species with small geographical range, narrow environmental range, short plant height, and short flowering and fruiting period. The correction of specimen collection preference will also make the results of species distribution model, species evolution and other works based on specimen data more accurate.

Climate biogeography of Arabidopsis thaliana: linking distribution models and individual variation

AIM

Patterns of individual variation are key to testing hypotheses about the mechanisms underlying biogeographic patterns. If species distributions are determined by environmental constraints, then populations near range margins may have reduced performance and be adapted to harsher environments. Model organisms are potentially important systems for biogeographical studies, given the available range-wide natural history collections, and the importance of providing biogeographical context to their genetic and phenotypic diversity.

LOCATION

Global.

TAXON

Arabidopsis thaliana ("Arabidopsis").

METHODS

We fit occurrence records to climate data, and then projected the distribution of Arabidopsis under last glacial maximum, current, and future climates. We confronted model predictions with individual performance measured on 2,194 herbarium specimens, and we asked whether predicted suitability was associated with life-history and genomic variation measured on ~900 natural accessions.

RESULTS

The most important climate variables constraining the Arabidopsis distribution were winter cold in northern and high elevation regions and summer heat in southern regions. Herbarium specimens from regions with lower habitat suitability in both northern and southern regions were smaller, supporting the hypothesis that the distribution of Arabidopsis is constrained by climate-associated factors. Climate anomalies partly explained interannual variation in herbarium specimen size, but these did not closely correspond to local limiting factors identified in the distribution model. Late-flowering genotypes were absent from the lowest suitability regions, suggesting slower life histories are only viable closer to the center of the realized niche. We identified glacial refugia farther north than previously recognized, as well as refugia concordant with previous population genetic findings. Lower latitude populations, known to be genetically distinct, are most threatened by future climate change. The recently colonized range of Arabidopsis was well-predicted by our native-range model applied to certain regions but not others, suggesting it has colonized novel climates.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Integration of distribution models with performance data from vast natural history collections is a route forward for testing biogeographical hypotheses about species distributions and their relationship with evolutionary fitness across large scales.

AI-based discovery of habitats from museum collections

Museum collection records are a source of historic data for species occurrence, but little attention is paid to the associated descriptions of habitat at the sample locations. We propose that artificial intelligence methods have potential to use these descriptions for reconstructing past habitat, to address ecological and evolutionary questions.

Geographic And Taxonomic Occurrence R-based Scrubbing (gatoRs): An R package and workflow for processing biodiversity data

Premise

Digitized biodiversity data offer extensive information; however, obtaining and processing biodiversity data can be daunting. Complexities arise during data cleaning, such as identifying and removing problematic records. To address these issues, we created the R package Geographic And Taxonomic Occurrence R-based Scrubbing (gatoRs).

Methods and Results

The gatoRs workflow includes functions that streamline downloading records from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF) and Integrated Digitized Biocollections (iDigBio). We also created functions to clean downloaded specimen records. Unlike previous R packages, gatoRs accounts for differences in download structure between GBIF and iDigBio and allows for user control via interactive cleaning steps.

Conclusions

Our pipeline enables the scientific community to process biodiversity data efficiently and is accessible to the R coding novice. We anticipate that gatoRs will be useful for both established and beginning users. Furthermore, we expect our package will facilitate the introduction of biodiversity-related concepts into the classroom via the use of herbarium specimens.

Plasticity and not adaptation is the primary source of temperature-mediated variation in flowering phenology in North America

Phenology varies widely over space and time because of its sensitivity to climate. However, whether phenological variation is primarily generated by rapid organismal responses (plasticity) or local adaptation remains unresolved. Here we used 1,038,027 herbarium specimens representing 1,605 species from the continental United States to measure flowering-time sensitivity to temperature over time (Stime) and space (Sspace). By comparing these estimates, we inferred how adaptation and plasticity historically influenced phenology along temperature gradients and how their contributions vary among species with different phenology and native climates and among ecoregions differing in species composition. Parameters Sspace and Stime were positively correlated (r = 0.87), of similar magnitude and more frequently consistent with plasticity than adaptation. Apparent plasticity and adaptation generated earlier flowering in spring, limited responsiveness in late summer and delayed flowering in autumn in response to temperature increases. Nonetheless, ecoregions differed in the relative contributions of adaptation and plasticity, from consistently greater importance of plasticity (for example, southeastern United States plains) to their nearly equal importance throughout the season (for example, Western Sierra Madre Piedmont). Our results support the hypothesis that plasticity is the primary driver of flowering-time variation along temperature gradients, with local adaptation having a widespread but comparatively limited role.

Herbarium specimens reveal links between Capsella bursa-pastoris leaf shape and climate

Studies into the evolution and development of leaf shape have connected variation in plant form, function, and fitness. For species with consistent leaf margin features, patterns in leaf architecture are related to both biotic and abiotic factors. However, for species with inconsistent leaf margin features, quantifying leaf shape variation and the effects of environmental factors on leaf shape has proven challenging. To investigate leaf shape variation in species with inconsistent shapes, we analyzed approximately 500 digitized Capsella bursa-pastoris specimens collected throughout the continental U.S. over a 100-year period with geometric morphometric modeling and deterministic techniques. We generated a morphospace of C. bursa-pastoris leaf shapes and modeled leaf shape as a function of environment and time. Our results suggest C. bursa-pastoris leaf shape variation is strongly associated with temperature over the C. bursa-pastoris growing season, with lobing decreasing as temperature increases. While we expected to see changes in variation over time, our results show that level of leaf shape variation is consistent over the 100-year period. Our findings showed that species with inconsistent leaf shape variation can be quantified using geometric morphometric modeling techniques and that temperature is the main environmental factor influencing leaf shape variation.

FloraTraiter: Automated parsing of traits from descriptive biodiversity literature

Premise

Plant trait data are essential for quantifying biodiversity and function across Earth, but these data are challenging to acquire for large studies. Diverse strategies are needed, including the liberation of heritage data locked within specialist literature such as floras and taxonomic monographs. Here we report FloraTraiter, a novel approach using rule-based natural language processing (NLP) to parse computable trait data from biodiversity literature.

Methods

FloraTraiter was implemented through collaborative work between programmers and botanical experts and customized for both online floras and scanned literature. We report a strategy spanning optical character recognition, recognition of taxa, iterative building of traits, and establishing linkages among all of these, as well as curational tools and code for turning these results into standard morphological matrices.

Results

Over 95% of treatment content was successfully parsed for traits with <1% error. Data for more than 700 taxa are reported, including a demonstration of common downstream uses.

Conclusions

We identify strategies, applications, tips, and challenges that we hope will facilitate future similar efforts to produce large open-source trait data sets for broad community reuse. Largely automated tools like FloraTraiter will be an important addition to the toolkit for assembling trait data at scale.

Temporal collections to study invasion biology

Biological invasions represent an extraordinary opportunity to study evolution. This is because accidental or deliberate species introductions have taken place for centuries across large geographical scales, frequently prompting rapid evolutionary transitions in invasive populations. Until recently, however, the utility of invasions as evolutionary experiments has been hampered by limited information on the makeup of populations that were part of earlier invasion stages. Now, developments in ancient and historical DNA technologies, as well as the quickening pace of digitization for millions of specimens that are housed in herbaria and museums globally, promise to help overcome this obstacle. In this review, we first introduce the types of temporal data that can be used to study invasions, highlighting the timescale captured by each approach and their respective limitations. We then discuss how ancient and historical specimens as well as data available from prior invasion studies can be used to answer questions on mechanisms of (mal)adaptation, rates of evolution, or community-level changes during invasions. By bridging the gap between contemporary and historical invasive populations, temporal data can help us connect pattern to process in invasion science. These data will become increasingly important if invasions are to achieve their full potential as experiments of evolution in nature.

Sex-dependent phenological responses to climate vary across species' ranges

Anthropogenic climate change has significantly altered the flowering times (i.e., phenology) of plants worldwide, affecting their reproduction, survival, and interactions. Recent studies utilizing herbarium specimens have uncovered significant intra- and inter-specific variation in flowering phenology and its response to changes in climate but have mostly been limited to animal-pollinated species. Thus, despite their economic and ecological importance, variation in phenological responses to climate remain largely unexplored among and within wind-pollinated dioecious species and across their sexes. Using both herbarium specimens and volunteer observations of cottonwood (Populus) species, we examined how phenological sensitivity to climate varies across species, their ranges, sexes, and phenophases. The timing of flowering varied significantly across and within species, as did their sensitivity to spring temperature. In particular, male flowering generally happened earlier in the season and was more sensitive to warming than female flowering. Further, the onset of flowering was more sensitive to changes in temperature than leaf out. Increased temporal gaps between male and female flowering time and between the first open flower date and leaf out date were predicted for the future under two climate change scenarios. These shifts will impact the efficacy of sexual reproduction and gene flow among species. Our study demonstrates significant inter- and intra-specific variation in phenology and its responses to environmental cues, across species' ranges, phenophases, and sex, in wind-pollinated species. These variations need to be considered to predict accurately the effects of climate change and assess their ecological and evolutionary consequences.

Assessing digital accessible botanical knowledge and priorities for exploration and discovery of plant diversity across Mesoamerica

Digital accessible biodiversity knowledge has the potential to greatly advance botanical research and guide conservation efforts. Evaluating its shortfalls is key to understanding its limits and prioritising regions in need of renewed survey efforts. We used the Royal Botanical Gardens Kew's World Checklist of Vascular Plants to parse publicly available occurrence data downloaded from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility and quantify the spatial distribution of spatial, phylogenetic, and temporal data shortfalls across Mesoamerica. After processing 3578 777 occurrence records for 32 522 species of vascular plants across Mesoamerica, we found evidence of poor data coverage: incomplete characterisation of species diversity, old occurrence records, and low phylogenetic representation. One-third of the region showed large gaps for at least one of these dimensions (hotspots) and < 15% had adequate data coverage across dimensions. Overall, the shortfalls we identified compromise the quality of digitally available occurrence data and hamper research on spatial phylogenetics and species dynamics under anthropogenic disturbances. Our analyses identified areas of opportunity for increased efforts in data digitisation, botanical exploration, sequencing, and biodiversity monitoring. These efforts would serve to increase and rejuvenate knowledge on the geographic distribution of vascular plants in Mesoamerica.

Digitization of the historical Herbarium of Michele Guadagno at Pisa (PI-GUAD)

The herbarium digitization process is an essential first step in transforming the vast amount of data associated with a physical specimen into flexible digital data formats. In this framework, the Herbarium of the University of Pisa (international code PI), at the end of 2018 started a process of digitization focusing on one of its most relevant collections: the Herbarium of Michele Guadagno (1878-1930). This scholar studied flora and vegetation of different areas of southern Italy, building a large herbarium including specimens collected by himself, plus many specimens obtained through exchanges with Italian and foreign botanists. The Herbarium is composed by 547 packages of vascular plants. Metadata were entered into the online database Virtual Herbaria JACQ and mirrored into a personalized virtual Herbarium of the Botanic Museum. After the completion of the digitization process, the number of sheets preserved in the Herbarium amounts to 44,345. Besides Guadagno, who collected 42% of his specimens, a further 1,102 collectors are represented. Most specimens were collected in Europe (91%), but all the continents are represented. As expected, Italy is the most represented country (59%), followed by France, Spain, Germany, and Greece. The specimens cover a time span of 99 years, from 1830 to 1929, whereas the specimens collected by Guadagno range between 1889 and 1928. Furthermore, we traced 134 herbarium sheets associated with documents, among which 75 drawings handmade by Guadagno, 34 letters from various corresponding authors, 16 copies of publications, and 14 copies of published iconographies.

Life-history characteristics and historical factors are important to explain regional variation in reproductive traits and genetic diversity in perennial mosses

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Plants have evolved an unrivalled diversity of reproductive strategies, including variation in the degree of sexual vs. clonal reproduction. This variation has important effects on the dynamics and genetic structure of populations. We examined the association between large-scale variation in reproductive patterns and intraspecific genetic diversity in two moss species where sex is manifested in the dominant haploid generation and sex expression is irregular. We predicted that in regions with more frequent realized sexual reproduction, populations should display less skewed sex ratios, should more often express sex and should have higher genetic diversity than in regions with largely clonal reproduction.

METHODS

We assessed reproductive status and phenotypic sex in the dioicous long-lived Drepanocladus trifarius and D. turgescens, in 248 and 438 samples across two regions in Scandinavia with frequent or rare realized sexual reproduction, respectively. In subsets of the samples, we analysed genetic diversity using nuclear and plastid sequence information and identified sex with a sex-specific molecular marker in non-reproductive samples.

KEY RESULTS

Contrary to our predictions, sex ratios did not differ between regions; genetic diversity did not differ in D. trifarius and it was higher in the region with rare sexual reproduction in D. turgescens. Supporting our predictions, relatively more samples expressed sex in D. trifarius in the region with frequent sexual reproduction. Overall, samples were mostly female. The degree of sex expression and genetic diversity differed between sexes.

CONCLUSIONS

Sex expression levels, regional sex ratios and genetic diversity were not directly associated with the regional frequency of realized sexual reproduction, and relationships and variation patterns differed between species. We conclude that a combination of species-specific life histories, such as longevity, overall degree of successful sexual reproduction and recruitment, and historical factors are important to explain this variation. Our data on haploid-dominated plants significantly complement plant reproductive biology.

Hidden cargo: The impact of historical shipping trade on the recent-past and contemporary non-native flora of northeastern United States

PREMISE

Understanding establishment and spread of non-native plants is important in the face of a homogenizing global flora. While many studies focus on successful, invasive species, fewer have studied failed plant introductions. Until the early 1900s, large quantities of ship ballast, often containing foreign plant propagules, were deposited in New Jersey (USA). The resulting ballast flora is documented in extensive herbarium records, providing us a unique opportunity to analyze successes and failures of novel plant species introductions.

METHODS

We used digitized specimens from 75 herbaria to study 264 non-native species introduced into New Jersey through 19th century ballast deposition. We used spatial (density-based clustering; HDBSCAN) and temporal analyses of species retention and geographic spread to quantify disappearance rate, survival, and dispersion through time and define trajectory groups.

RESULTS

Four distinct trajectory groups were identified: waif (only present during import; 32% of species), short-term (disappeared quickly; 20%), established-limited spread (survives locally, 30%), and established-widespread (widespread, 18%). Species disappearance rate was highest during ballast deposition and decreased soon after deposition stopped around 1900. Spatial patterns showed a strong association with 19th century railroads for inland dispersal from ports. The disappearance rate and spatial analyses are robust to herbarium collection bias.

CONCLUSIONS

This study using New Jersey as a model is one of the few documenting multispecies successes and failures in inadvertent plant introductions. Results reveal distinct trends in species establishment and geographic spread and highlight the utility of herbarium specimens in answering questions that span large time scales.

Complex climate-mediated effects of urbanization on plant reproductive phenology and frost risk

Urbanization can affect the timing of plant reproduction (i.e. flowering and fruiting) and associated ecosystem processes. However, our knowledge of how plant phenology responds to urbanization and its associated environmental changes is limited. Herbaria represent an important, but underutilized source of data for investigating this question. We harnessed phenological data from herbarium specimens representing 200 plant species collected across 120 yr from the eastern US to investigate the spatiotemporal effects of urbanization on flowering and fruiting phenology and frost risk (i.e. time between the last frost date and flowering). Effects of urbanization on plant reproductive phenology varied significantly in direction and magnitude across species ranges. Increased urbanization led to earlier flowering in colder and wetter regions and delayed fruiting in regions with wetter spring conditions. Frost risk was elevated with increased urbanization in regions with colder and wetter spring conditions. Our study demonstrates that predictions of phenological change and its associated impacts must account for both climatic and human effects, which are context dependent and do not necessarily coincide. We must move beyond phenological models that only incorporate temperature variables and consider multiple environmental factors and their interactions when estimating plant phenology, especially at larger spatial and taxonomic scales.

From leaves to labels: Building modular machine learning networks for rapid herbarium specimen analysis with LeafMachine2

Premise

Quantitative plant traits play a crucial role in biological research. However, traditional methods for measuring plant morphology are time consuming and have limited scalability. We present LeafMachine2, a suite of modular machine learning and computer vision tools that can automatically extract a base set of leaf traits from digital plant data sets.

Methods

LeafMachine2 was trained on 494,766 manually prepared annotations from 5648 herbarium images obtained from 288 institutions and representing 2663 species; it employs a set of plant component detection and segmentation algorithms to isolate individual leaves, petioles, fruits, flowers, wood samples, buds, and roots. Our landmarking network automatically identifies and measures nine pseudo-landmarks that occur on most broadleaf taxa. Text labels and barcodes are automatically identified by an archival component detector and are prepared for optical character recognition methods or natural language processing algorithms.

Results

LeafMachine2 can extract trait data from at least 245 angiosperm families and calculate pixel-to-metric conversion factors for 26 commonly used ruler types.

Discussion

LeafMachine2 is a highly efficient tool for generating large quantities of plant trait data, even from occluded or overlapping leaves, field images, and non-archival data sets. Our project, along with similar initiatives, has made significant progress in removing the bottleneck in plant trait data acquisition from herbarium specimens and shifted the focus toward the crucial task of data revision and quality control.

Tropical Trees Will Need to Acclimate to Rising Temperatures-But Can They?

For tropical forests to survive anthropogenic global warming, trees will need to avoid rising temperatures through range shifts and "species migrations" or tolerate the newly emerging conditions through adaptation and/or acclimation. In this literature review, we synthesize the available knowledge to show that although many tropical tree species are shifting their distributions to higher, cooler elevations, the rates of these migrations are too slow to offset ongoing changes in temperatures, especially in lowland tropical rainforests where thermal gradients are shallow or nonexistent. We also show that the rapidity and severity of global warming make it unlikely that tropical tree species can adapt (with some possible exceptions). We argue that the best hope for tropical tree species to avoid becoming "committed to extinction" is individual-level acclimation. Although several new methods are being used to test for acclimation, we unfortunately still do not know if tropical tree species can acclimate, how acclimation abilities vary between species, or what factors may prevent or facilitate acclimation. Until all of these questions are answered, our ability to predict the fate of tropical species and tropical forests-and the many services that they provide to humanity-remains critically impaired.

The colonial legacy of herbaria

Herbarium collections shape our understanding of Earth's flora and are crucial for addressing global change issues. Their formation, however, is not free from sociopolitical issues of immediate relevance. Despite increasing efforts addressing issues of representation and colonialism in natural history collections, herbaria have received comparatively less attention. While it has been noted that the majority of plant specimens are housed in the Global North, the extent and magnitude of this disparity have not been quantified. Here we examine the colonial legacy of botanical collections, analysing 85,621,930 specimen records and assessing survey responses from 92 herbarium collections across 39 countries. We find an inverse relationship between where plant diversity exists in nature and where it is housed in herbaria. Such disparities persist across physical and digital realms despite overt colonialism ending over half a century ago. We emphasize the need for acknowledging the colonial history of herbarium collections and implementing a more equitable global paradigm for their collection, curation and use.

Machine learning methods reveal processes affecting abundance at multiple scales. A commentary on 'Global and regional drivers of abundance patterns in the hart's tongue fern complex (Aspleniaceae)'

This article comments on:

Namjoo Heo, Donald J. Leopold, Mark V. Lomolino, Seona Yun and Danilo D. Fernando. Global and regional drivers of abundance patterns in the hart’s tongue fern complex (Aspleniaceae), Annals of Botany, Volume 131, Issue 5, 11 April 2023, Pages 737–750, https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcac129

Mass production of unvouchered records fails to represent global biodiversity patterns

The ever-increasing human footprint even in very remote places on Earth has inspired efforts to document biodiversity vigorously in case organisms go extinct. However, the data commonly gathered come from either primary voucher specimens in a natural history collection or from direct field observations that are not traceable to tangible material in a museum or herbarium. Although both datasets are crucial for assessing how anthropogenic drivers affect biodiversity, they have widespread coverage gaps and biases that may render them inefficient in representing patterns of biodiversity. Using a large global dataset of around 1.9 billion occurrence records of terrestrial plants, butterflies, amphibians, birds, reptiles and mammals, we quantify coverage and biases of expected biodiversity patterns by voucher and observation records. We show that the mass production of observation records does not lead to higher coverage of expected biodiversity patterns but is disproportionately biased toward certain regions, clades, functional traits and time periods. Such coverage patterns are driven by the ease of accessibility to air and ground transportation, level of security and extent of human modification at each sampling site. Conversely, voucher records are vastly infrequent in occurrence data but in the few places where they are sampled, showed relative congruence with expected biodiversity patterns for all dimensions. The differences in coverage and bias by voucher and observation records have important implications on the utility of these records for research in ecology, evolution and conservation research.

Improving species delimitation for effective conservation: a case study in the endemic maple-leaf oak (Quercus acerifolia)

Species delimitation is challenging in lineages that exhibit both high plasticity and introgression. This challenge can be compounded by collection biases, which may downweight specimens morphologically intermediate between traditional species. Additionally, mismatch between named species and observable phenotypes can compromise species conservation. We studied the species boundaries of Quercus acerifolia, a tree endemic to Arkansas, U.S. We performed morphometric analyses of leaves and acorns from 527 field and 138 herbarium samples of Q. acerifolia and its close relatives, Q. shumardii and Q. rubra. We employed two novel approaches: sampling ex situ collections to detect phenotypic plasticity caused by environmental variation and comparing random field samples with historical herbarium samples to identify collection biases that might undermine species delimitation. To provide genetic evidence, we also performed molecular analyses on genome-wide SNPs. Quercus acerifolia shows distinctive morphological, ecological, and genomic characteristics, rejecting the hypothesis that Q. acerifolia is a phenotypic variant of Q. shumardii. We found mismatches between traditional taxonomy and phenotypic clusters. We detected underrepresentation of morphological intermediates in herbarium collections, which may bias species discovery and recognition. Rare species conservation requires considering and addressing taxonomic problems related to phenotypic plasticity, mismatch between taxonomy and morphological clusters, and collection biases.

How consistently do species leaf-out or flower in the same order? Understanding the factors that shape this characteristic of plant communities

Plant species are frequently reported to undergo leaf-out and flowering in a consistent order from 1 year to the next; however, only a limited number of these findings arise from studies encompassing many species or sites. Here, we evaluate the consistency in the order species leafed out in the northeastern United States using observations contributed to the USA National Phenology Network's Nature's Notebook platform. We repeated this analysis for flowering, evaluating a total of 132 species across 84 sites. We documented a relatively high degree of consistency in the order of both events among individual plants, with higher consistency in flowering. A small number of species pairs exhibited very high consistency in phenological order across several sites. The majority of species pairs exhibited variability in how consistently they underwent either leaf-out or flowering from site to site, which could be the result of either plastic or locally adaptive responses. Our investigation revealed that neither functional type nor seasonal position played a major role in shaping how consistently species leafed out or flowered in the same order. Instead, we found the number of days separating the events and interannual variability in timing to be the most influential factors driving the consistency in ordering.

Drivers of strong isolation and small effective population size at a leading range edge of a widespread plant

Climate change has influenced species distributions worldwide with upward elevational shifts observed in many systems. Leading range edge populations, like those at upper elevation limits, are crucial for climate change responses but can exhibit low genetic diversity due to founder effects, isolation, or limited outbreeding. These factors can hamper local adaptation at range limits. Using the widespread herb, Argentina anserina, we measured ecological attributes (population density on the landscape, area of population occupancy, and plant and flower density) spanning a 1000 m elevation gradient, with high elevation populations at the range limit. We measured vegetative clonal potential in the greenhouse for populations spanning the gradient. We combined these data with a ddRAD-seq dataset to test the hypotheses that high elevation populations would exhibit ecological and genomic signatures of leading range edge populations. We found that population density on the landscape declined towards the high elevation limit, as is expected towards range edges. However, plant density was elevated within edge populations. In the greenhouse, high elevation plants exhibited stronger clonal potential than low elevation plants, likely explaining increased plant density in the field. Phylogeographic analysis supported more recent colonization of high elevation populations which were also more genetically isolated, had more extreme heterozygote excess and had smaller effective population size than low. Results support that colonization of high elevations was likely accompanied by increased asexuality, contributing to a decline in effective population size. Despite high plant density in leading edge populations, their small effective size, isolation and clonality could constrain adaptive potential.

Is the world wormier than it used to be? We'll never know without natural history collections

Many disease ecologists and conservation biologists believe that the world is wormier than it used to be-that is, that parasites are increasing in abundance through time. This argument is intuitively appealing. Ecologists typically see parasitic infections, through their association with disease, as a negative endpoint, and are accustomed to attributing negative outcomes to human interference in the environment, so it slots neatly into our worldview that habitat destruction, biodiversity loss and climate change should have the collateral consequence of causing outbreaks of parasites. But surprisingly, the hypothesis that parasites are increasing in abundance through time remains entirely untested for the vast majority of wildlife parasite species. Historical data on parasites are nearly impossible to find, which leaves no baseline against which to compare contemporary parasite burdens. If we want to know whether the world is wormier than it used to be, there is only one major research avenue that will lead to an answer: parasitological examination of specimens preserved in natural history collections. Recent advances demonstrate that, for many specimen types, it is possible to extract reliable data on parasite presence and abundance. There are millions of suitable specimens that exist in collections around the world. When paired with contemporaneous environmental data, these parasitological data could even point to potential drivers of change in parasite abundance, including climate, pollution or host density change. We explain how to use preserved specimens to address pressing questions in parasite ecology, give a few key examples of how collections-based parasite ecology can resolve these questions, identify some pitfalls and workarounds, and suggest promising areas for research. Natural history specimens are 'parasite time capsules' that give ecologists the opportunity to test whether infectious disease is on the rise and to identify what forces might be driving these changes over time. This approach will facilitate major advances in a new sub-discipline: the historical ecology of parasitism.

Herbarium specimens reveal herbivory patterns across the genus Cucurbita

PREMISE

Quantifying how closely related plant species differ in susceptibility to insect herbivory is important for understanding the variation in evolutionary pressures on plant functional traits. However, empirically measuring in situ variation in herbivory spanning the geographic range of a plant-insect complex is logistically difficult. Recently, new methods have been developed using herbarium specimens to investigate patterns in plant-insect symbioses across large geographic scales. Such investigations provide insights into how accelerated anthropogenic changes may impact plant-insect interactions that are of ecological or agricultural importance.

METHODS

Here, we analyze 274 pressed herbarium samples to investigate variation in herbivory damage in 13 different species of the economically important plant genus Cucurbita (Cucurbitaceae). This collection is composed of specimens of wild, undomesticated Cucurbita that were collected from across their native range, and Cucurbita cultivars collected from both within their native range and from locations where they have been introduced for agriculture in temperate North America.

RESULTS

Herbivory is common on individuals of all Cucurbita species collected throughout their geographic ranges. However, estimates of herbivory varied considerably among individuals, with mesophytic species accruing more insect damage than xerophytic species, and wild specimens having more herbivory than specimens collected from human-managed habitats.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study suggests that long-term evolutionary changes in habitat from xeric to mesic climates and wild to human-managed habitats may mediate the levels of herbivory pressure from coevolved herbivores. Future investigations into the potential factors that contribute to herbivory may inform the management of domesticated crop plants and their insect herbivores.

How to use natural history collections to resurrect information on historical parasite abundances

Many of the most contentious questions that concern the ecology of helminths could be resolved with data on helminth abundance over the past few decades or centuries, but unfortunately these data are rare. A new sub-discipline - the historical ecology of parasitism - is resurrecting long-term data on the abundance of parasites, an advancement facilitated by the use of biological natural history collections. Because the world's museums hold billions of suitable specimens collected over more than a century, these potential parasitological datasets are broad in scope and finely resolved in taxonomic, temporal and spatial dimensions. Here, we set out best practices for the extraction of parasitological information from natural history collections, including how to conceive of a project, how to select specimens, how to engage curators and receive permission for proposed projects, standard operating protocols for dissections and how to manage data. Our hope is that other helminthologists will use this paper as a reference to expand their own research programmes along the dimension of time.

The influence of climate warming on flowering phenology in relation to historical annual and seasonal temperatures and plant functional traits

Climate warming has the potential to influence plant flowering phenology which in turn can have broader ecological consequences. Herbarium collections offer a source of historical plant data that makes possible the ability to document and better understand how warming climate can influence long-term shifts in flowering phenology. We examined the influence of annual, winter, and spring temperatures on the flowering phenology of herbarium specimens for 36 species collected from 1884-2015. We then compared the response to warming between native and non-native, woody and herbaceous, dry and fleshy fruit, and spring vs summer blooming species. Across all species, plants flowered 2.26 days earlier per 1 °C increase in annual average temperatures and 2.93 days earlier per 1 °C increase in spring onset average temperatures. Winter temperatures did not significantly influence flowering phenology. The relationship of temperature and flowering phenology was not significantly different between native and non-native species. Woody species flowered earlier than herbaceous species only in response to increasing annual temperatures. There was no difference in the phenological response between species with dry fruits and those fleshy fruits for any of the temperature periods. Spring blooming species exhibited a significantly greater phenological response to warming yearly average temperatures than summer blooming species. Although herbarium specimens can reveal climate change impacts on phenology, it is also evident that the phenological responses to warming vary greatly among species due to differences in functional traits such as those considered here, as well as other factors.

The herbarium of the future

The ~400 million specimens deposited across ~3000 herbaria are essential for: (i) understanding where plants have lived in the past, (ii) forecasting where they may live in the future, and (iii) delineating their conservation status. An open access 'global metaherbarium' is emerging as these specimens are digitized, mobilized, and interlinked online. This virtual biodiversity resource is attracting new users who are accelerating traditional applications of herbaria and generating basic and applied scientific innovations, including e-monographs and floras produced by diverse, interdisciplinary, and inclusive teams; robust machine-learning algorithms for species identification and phenotyping; collection and synthesis of ecological trait data at large spatiotemporal and phylogenetic scales; and exhibitions and installations that convey the beauty of plants and the value of herbaria in addressing broader societal issues.

Field observations and remote assessment identify climate change, recreation, invasive species, and livestock as top threats to critically imperiled rare plants in Nevada

Introduction

Rare plant species comprise &gt;36.5% of the world’s flora and disproportionately support ecosystem function and resilience. However, rare species also lead global plant extinctions, and unique ecological characteristics can make them vulnerable to anthropogenic pressure. Despite their vulnerability, many rare plants receive less monitoring than is needed to inform conservation efforts due to limited capacity for field surveys.

Methods

We used field observations and geospatial data to summarize how 128 imperiled, rare vascular plant species in Nevada are affected by various threats. We assessed correlations between threats predicted by geospatial data and threats observed on the ground and asked how historic and current threats compare.

Results

The most commonly observed threats were from recreation, invasive and non-native/alien species, and livestock farming and ranching. Threat prevalence varied by elevation (e.g., a greater variety of threats at lower elevations, greater threat from climate change observed at higher elevations) and land management. There was a 28.1% overall correlation between predicted and observed threats, which was stronger for some threats (e.g., development of housing and urban areas, livestock farming and ranching) than others. All species experienced extreme climatic differences during 1990-2020 compared to baseline conditions, with the most extreme change in southern Nevada. The average number of threats observed per occurrence increased by 0.024 each decade.

Discussion

While geospatial data did not perfectly predict observed threats, many of these occurrences have not been visited in over 30 years, and correlations may be stronger than we were able to detect here. Our approach can be used to help guide proactive monitoring, conservation, and research efforts for vulnerable species.

Madagascar’s extraordinary biodiversity: Threats and opportunities

Madagascar’s unique biota is heavily affected by human activity and is under intense threat. Here, we review the current state of knowledge on the conservation status of Madagascar’s terrestrial and freshwater biodiversity by presenting data and analyses on documented and predicted species-level conservation statuses, the most prevalent and relevant threats, ex situ collections and programs, and the coverage and comprehensiveness of protected areas. The existing terrestrial protected area network in Madagascar covers 10.4% of its land area and includes at least part of the range of the majority of described native species of vertebrates with known distributions (97.1% of freshwater fishes, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals combined) and plants (67.7%). The overall figures are higher for threatened species (97.7% of threatened vertebrates and 79.6% of threatened plants occurring within at least one protected area). International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List assessments and Bayesian neural network analyses for plants identify overexploitation of biological resources and unsustainable agriculture as the most prominent threats to biodiversity. We highlight five opportunities for action at multiple levels to ensure that conservation and ecological restoration objectives, programs, and activities take account of complex underlying and interacting factors and produce tangible benefits for the biodiversity and people of Madagascar.

Estimating phenological sensitivity in contemporary vs. historical data sets: Effects of climate resolution and spatial scale

PREMISE

Phenological sensitivity, or the degree to which a species' phenology shifts in response to warming, is an important parameter for comparing and predicting species' responses to climate change. Phenological sensitivity is often measured using herbarium specimens or local studies in natural populations. These approaches differ widely in spatiotemporal scales, yet few studies explicitly consider effects of the geographic extent and resolution of climate data when comparing phenological sensitivities quantified from different data sets for a given species.

METHODS

We compared sensitivity of flowering phenology to growing degree days of the alpine plant Silene acaulis using two data sets: herbarium specimens and a 6 yr observational study in four populations at Niwot Ridge, Colorado, USA. We investigated differences in phenological sensitivity obtained using variable spatial scales and climate data sources.

RESULTS

Herbarium specimens underestimated phenological sensitivity compared to observational data, even when herbarium samples were limited geographically or to nearby weather station data. However, when observational data were paired with broader-scale climate data, as is typically used in herbarium data sets, estimates of phenological sensitivity were more similar.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the potential for variation in data source, geographic scale, and accuracy of macroclimate data to produce very different estimates of phenological responses to climate change. Accurately predicting phenological shifts would benefit from comparisons between methods that estimate climate variables and phenological sensitivity over a variety of spatial scales.

The invasion history of Elodea canadensis and E. nuttallii (Hydrocharitaceae) in Italy from herbarium accessions, field records and historical literature

We analysed the invasion history of two North American macrophytes (Elodea canadensis and E. nuttallii) in Italy, through an accurate census of all available herbarium and field records, dating between 1850 and 2019, and a rich literature collection describing the initial introduction and naturalisation phase that supports the results obtained by the occurrence records. Elodea canadensis arrived in Italy before 1866 and had two invasion phases, between the 1890s and 1920s and between the 1990s and 2000s; E. nuttallii, probably arrived in the 1970s, started invading in 2000 and the invasion is still ongoing. Botanical gardens and fish farming played a crucial role in dispersal and naturalisation of both species. The current invasion range of both species is centred in northern Italy, with scattered occurrences of E. canadensis in central and southern regions. River Po represents a dispersal barrier to the Mediterranean region and a strategic monitoring site to prevent the invasion in the peninsula. The study detects differences in the niches of the two species during the introduction and naturalisation phase and a habitat switch occurred after 1980 in E. canadensis and after 2000 in E. nuttallii, during their expansion phases. For E. canadensis the switch corresponds to the second invasion round. Further research can clarify whether the second invasion round is due to confusion of the recently introduced E. nuttallii with E. canadensis, to a cryptic introduction of a new genotype, to post-introduction evolution, or just to an increased scientific interest in biological invasions.