Effects of competition, colonization, and extinction on rodent species diversity

Transferability of ecological forecasting models to novel biotic conditions in a long-term experimental study

Ecological forecasting models play an increasingly important role for managing natural resources and assessing our fundamental knowledge of processes driving ecological dynamics. As global environmental change pushes ecosystems beyond their historical conditions, the utility of these models may depend on their transferability to novel conditions. Because species interactions can alter resource use, timing of reproduction, and other aspects of a species' realized niche, changes in biotic conditions, which can arise from community reorganization events in response to environmental change, have the potential to impact model transferability. Using a long-term experiment on desert rodents, we assessed model transferability under novel biotic conditions to better understand the limitations of ecological forecasting. We show that ecological forecasts can be less accurate when the models generating them are transferred to novel biotic conditions and that the extent of model transferability can depend on the species being forecast. We also demonstrate the importance of incorporating uncertainty into forecast evaluation with transferred models generating less accurate and more uncertain forecasts. These results suggest that how a species perceives its competitive landscape can influence model transferability and that when uncertainties are properly accounted for, transferred models may still be appropriate for decision making. Assessing the extent of the transferability of forecasting models is a crucial step to increase our understanding of the limitations of ecological forecasts.

Multiple coping strategies maintain stability of a small mammal population in a resource-restricted environment

In semi-arid environments, aperiodic rainfall pulses determine plant production and resource availability for higher trophic levels, creating strong bottom-up regulation. The influence of climatic factors on population vital rates often shapes the dynamics of small mammal populations in such resource-restricted environments. Using a 21-year biannual capture-recapture dataset (1993 to 2014), we examined the impacts of climatic factors on the population dynamics of the brush mouse (Peromyscus boylii) in semi-arid oak woodland of coastal-central California. We applied Pradel's temporal symmetry model to estimate capture probability (p), apparent survival (φ), recruitment (f), and realized population growth rate (λ) of the brush mouse and examined the effects of temperature, rainfall, and El Niño on these demographic parameters. The population was stable during the study period with a monthly realized population growth rate of 0.993 ± SE 0.032, but growth varied over time from 0.680 ± 0.054 to 1.450 ± 0.083. Monthly survival estimates averaged 0.789 ± 0.005 and monthly recruitment estimates averaged 0.175 ± 0.038. Survival probability and realized population growth rate were positively correlated with rainfall and negatively correlated with temperature. In contrast, recruitment was negatively correlated with rainfall and positively correlated with temperature. Brush mice maintained their population through multiple coping strategies, with high recruitment during warmer and drier periods and higher survival during cooler and wetter conditions. Although climatic change in coastal-central California will likely favor recruitment over survival, varying strategies may serve as a mechanism by which brush mice maintain resilience in the face of climate change. Our results indicate that rainfall and temperature are both important drivers of brush mouse population dynamics and will play a significant role in predicting the future viability of brush mice under a changing climate.

Revisiting ecological dominance in arboreal ants: how dominant usage of nesting resources shapes community assembly

Ecologically dominant species can shape the assembly of ecological communities via altering competitive outcomes. Moreover, these effects may be amplified under limited niche differentiation. Nevertheless, the influences of ecological dominance and niche differentiation on assembly are rarely considered together. Here, we provide a novel examination of dominance in a diverse arboreal ant community, defining dominance by the prevalent usage of nesting resources and addressing how it influences community assembly. We first used a series of quantitative observational and experimental studies to address the natural nesting ecology, colony incidence on surveyed trees, and level of dominance over newly available nesting resources by our focal species, Cephalotes pusillus. The experimental studies were then used further to examine whether C. pusillus shapes assembly via an influence on cavity usage by co-occurring species. C. pusillus was confirmed as a dominant user of cavity nesting resources, with highly generalized nesting ecology, occupying about 50% of the trees within the focal system, and accounting for more than a third of new cavity occupation in experiments. Our experiments showed further that the presence of C. pusillus was associated with modest effects on species richness, but significant decreases in cavity-occupation levels and significant shifts in the entrance-size usage by co-occurring species. These results indicate that C. pusillus, as a dominant user of nesting resources, shapes assembly at multiple levels. Broadly, our findings highlight that complex interactions between a dominant species and the resource-usage patterns of other species can underlie species assembly in diverse ecological communities.

Competition with insectivorous ants as a contributor to low songbird diversity at low elevations in the eastern Himalaya

Competitive interactions between distantly related clades could cause complementary diversity patterns of these clades over large spatial scales. One such example might be ants and birds in the eastern Himalaya; ants are very common at low elevations but almost absent at mid-elevations where the abundance of other arthropods and insectivorous bird diversity peaks. Here, we ask if ants at low elevations could compete with birds for arthropod prey. Specifically, we studied the impact of the Asian weaver ant (Oecophylla smaragdina), a common aggressive ant at low elevations. Diet analysis using molecular methods demonstrate extensive diet overlap between weaver ants and songbirds at both low and mid-elevations. Trees without weaver ants have greater non-ant arthropod abundance and leaf damage. Experimental removal of weaver ants results in an increase in the abundance of non-ant arthropods. Notably, numbers of Coleoptera and Lepidoptera were most affected by removal experiments and were prominent components of both bird and weaver ant diets. Our results suggest that songbirds and weaver ants might potentially compete with each other for arthropod prey at low elevations, thereby contributing to lower insectivorous bird diversity at low elevations in eastern Himalaya. Competition with ants may shape vertebrate diversity patterns across broad biodiversity gradients.

Interdependent Phenotypic and Biogeographic Evolution Driven by Biotic Interactions

Biotic interactions are hypothesized to be one of the main processes shaping trait and biogeographic evolution during lineage diversification. Theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that species with similar ecological requirements either spatially exclude each other, by preventing the colonization of competitors or by driving coexisting populations to extinction, or show niche divergence when in sympatry. However, the extent and generality of the effect of interspecific competition in trait and biogeographic evolution has been limited by a dearth of appropriate process-generating models to directly test the effect of biotic interactions. Here, we formulate a phylogenetic parametric model that allows interdependence between trait and biogeographic evolution, thus enabling a direct test of central hypotheses on how biotic interactions shape these evolutionary processes. We adopt a Bayesian data augmentation approach to estimate the joint posterior distribution of trait histories, range histories, and coevolutionary process parameters under this analytically intractable model. Through simulations, we show that our model is capable of distinguishing alternative scenarios of biotic interactions. We apply our model to the radiation of Darwin’s finches—a classic example of adaptive divergence—and find limited support for in situ trait divergence in beak size, but stronger evidence for convergence in traits such as beak shape and tarsus length and for competitive exclusion throughout their evolutionary history. These findings are more consistent with presympatric, rather than postsympatric, niche divergence. Our modeling framework opens new possibilities for testing more complex hypotheses about the processes underlying lineage diversification. More generally, it provides a robust probabilistic methodology to model correlated evolution of continuous and discrete characters. [Bayesian; biotic interactions; competition; data augmentation; historical biogeography; trait evolution.]

Functional and numerical responses of shrews to competition vary with mouse density

For decades, ecologists have debated the importance of biotic interactions (e.g., competition) and abiotic factors in regulating populations. Competition can influence patterns of distribution, abundance, and resource use in many systems but remains difficult to measure. We quantified competition between two sympatric small mammals, Keen's mice (Peromyscus keeni) and dusky shrews (Sorex monticolus), in four habitat types on Prince of Wales Island in Southeast Alaska. We related shrew density to that of mice using standardized regression models while accounting for habitat variables in each year from 2010-2012, during which mice populations peaked (2011) and then crashed (2012). Additionally, we measured dietary overlap and segregation using stable isotope analysis and kernel utilization densities and estimated the change in whole community energy consumption among years. We observed an increase in densities of dusky shrews after mice populations crashed in 2012 as expected under competitive release. In addition, competition coefficients revealed that the influence of Keen's mice was dependent on their density. Also in 2012, shrew diets shifted, indicating that they were able to exploit resources previously used by mice. Nonetheless, increases in shrew numbers only partially compensated for the community energy consumption because, as insectivores, they are unlikely to utilize all food types consumed by their competitors. In pre-commercially thinned stands, which exhibit higher diversity of resources compared to other habitat types, shrew populations were less affected by changes in mice densities. These spatially and temporally variable interactions between unlikely competitors, observed in a relatively simple, high-latitude island ecosystem, highlight the difficulty in assessing the role of biotic factors in structuring communities.

Anthropogenic water sources and the effects on Sonoran Desert small mammal communities

Anthropogenic water sources (AWS) are developed water sources used as a management tool for desert wildlife species. Studies documenting the effects of AWS are often focused on game species; whereas, the effects on non-target wildlife are less understood. We used live trapping techniques to investigate rodent abundance, biomass, and diversity metrics near AWS and paired control sites; we sampled vegetation to determine rodent-habitat associations in the Sauceda Mountains of the Sonoran Desert in Arizona. A total of 370 individual mammals representing three genera and eight species were captured in 4,800 trap nights from winter 2011 to spring 2012. A multi-response permutation procedure was used to identify differences in small mammal community abundance and biomass by season and treatment. Rodent abundance, biomass, and richness were greater at AWS compared to control sites. Patterns of abundance and biomass were driven by the desert pocket mouse (Chaetodipus penicillatus) which was the most common capture and two times more numerous at AWS compared to controls. Vegetation characteristics, explored using principal components analysis, were similar between AWS and controls. Two species that prefer vegetation structure, Bailey’s pocket mouse (C. baileyi) and white-throated woodrat (Neotoma albigula), had greater abundances and biomass near AWS and were associated with habitat having high cactus density. Although small mammals do not drink free-water, perhaps higher abundances of some species of desert rodents at AWS could be related to artificial structure associated with construction or other resources. Compared to the 30-year average of precipitation for the area, the period of our study occurred during a dry winter. During dry periods, perhaps AWS provide resources to rodents related to moisture.

Inconsistent reproductive isolation revealed by interactions between Catostomus fish species

Interactions between species are central to evolution and ecology, but we do not know enough about how outcomes of interactions between species vary across geographic locations, in heterogeneous environments, or over time. Ecological dimensions of interactions between species are known to vary, but evolutionary interactions such as the establishment and maintenance of reproductive isolation are often assumed to be consistent across instances of an interaction between species. Hybridization among Catostomus fish species occurs over a large and heterogeneous geographic area and across taxa with distinct evolutionary histories, which allows us to assess consistency in species interactions. We analyzed hybridization among six Catostomus species across the Upper Colorado River basin (US mountain west) and found extreme variation in hybridization across locations. Different hybrid crosses were present in different locations, despite similar species assemblages. Within hybrid crosses, hybridization varied from only first generation hybrids to extensive hybridization with backcrossing. Variation in hybridization outcomes might result from uneven fitness of hybrids across locations, polymorphism in genetic incompatibilities, chance, unidentified historical contingencies, or some combination thereof. Our results suggest caution in assuming that one or a few instances of hybridization represent all interactions between the focal species, as species interactions vary substantially across locations.

Species Turnover through Time: Colonization and Extinction Dynamics across Metacommunities

Island biogeography and metacommunity theory often use equilibrium assumptions to predict local diversity, yet nonequilibrium dynamics are common in nature. In nonequilibrium communities, local diversity fluctuates through time as the relative importance of colonization and extinction change. Here, we test the prevalence and causes of nonequilibrium dynamics in metacommunities of mites associated with rubber trees distributed over large spatial (>1,000 km) and temporal (>30-60 generations) scales in Brazil. We measured colonization and extinction rates to test species turnover and nonequilibrium dynamics over a growing season. Mite metacommunities exhibited nonequilibrium dynamics for most months of the year, and these dynamics tracked climatic conditions. Monthly shifts in temperature of more than 1°C resulted in nonequilibrium dynamics, as did mean temperatures outside of two critical ranges. Nonequilibrium dynamics were caused by a change in colonization with temperature change and changes in both colonization and extinction with absolute temperature. Species turnover showed different trends; high relative humidity increased both colonization and extinction rates, increasing turnover but not nonequilibrium dynamics. Our study illustrates that testing nonequilibrium dynamics can provide new insights into the drivers of colonization, extinction, and diversity fluctuations in metacommunities.

Scramble competitions can rescue endangered species subject to strong Allee effects

In this article, we study population dynamics of a general two-species discrete-time competition model where each species suffers from both strong Allee effects and scramble intra-specific competitions. We focus on how the combinations of the scramble intra-specific and inter-specific competition affect the extinction and coexistence of these two competing species where each species is subject to strong Allee effects. We derive sufficient conditions on the extinction, essential-like extinction and coexistence for such models. One of the most interesting findings is that scramble competitions can promote coexistence of these two species at their high densities. This is supported by the outcome of single species models with strong Allee effects. In addition, we apply theoretical results to a symmetric competition model with strong Allee effects induced by predator saturations where we give a completed study of its possible equilibria and attractors. Numerical simulations are performed to support our results.

Quantifying disturbance resistance in an ecologically dominant species: a robust design analysis

Disturbance is now recognized as a key ecosystem process but few studies have examined its indirect effects on individuals in a population or its relationship to ecological dominance in a community. Using an ecologically dominant small mammal population in experimentally burned habitat as a model, I empirically tested the effect of disturbance on survival, abundance and fecundity and investigated whether recently burned habitat is a population sink. I also examined the effect of fire on community diversity, particularly how fire influenced dominance by bushveld gerbils Tatera leucogaster (Peters 1852). Live trapping in the first year post-fire yielded a total of 4,774 captures of 1,076 individual bushveld gerbils in a tropical savanna in southern Africa. The robust design allowed for an investigation of the effects of fire, sex and temporal variation on survival while controlling for potential differences in detection and temporary emigration. Although there were fewer individuals in burned savanna during the first 6 months post-fire, their apparent monthly survival was not significantly lowered compared with the control, with males and females surviving equally well. Fecundity, represented by proportion of females lactating, was unaffected by fire and, overall, recently burned habitat does not appear to be sink habitat. The disturbance resistance exhibited by this species is likely a contributing factor to its ecological dominance in the area, which is subject to relatively frequent fires. Results of this study highlight the need to consider disturbance regimes when evaluating patterns of species richness and evenness in an ecosystem.

Zero sum, the niche, and metacommunities: long-term dynamics of community assembly

Recent models of community assembly, structure, and dynamics have incorporated, to varying degrees, three mechanistic processes: resource limitation and interspecific competition, niche requirements of species, and exchanges between a local community and a regional species pool. Synthesizing 30 years of data from an intensively studied desert rodent community, we show that all of these processes, separately and in combination, have influenced the structural organization of this community and affected its dynamical response to both natural environmental changes and experimental perturbations. In addition, our analyses suggest that zero-sum constraints, niche differences, and metacommunity processes are inextricably linked in the ways that they affect the structure and dynamics of this system. Explicit consideration of the interaction of these processes should yield a deeper understanding of the assembly and dynamics of other ecological communities. This synthesis highlights the role that long-term data, especially when coupled with experimental manipulations, can play in assessing the fundamental processes that govern the structure and function of ecological communities.

Chihuahuan Desert kangaroo rats: nonlinear effects of population dynamics, competition, and rainfall

Using long-term data on two kangaroo rats in the Chihuahuan Desert of North America, we fitted logistic models including the exogenous effects of seasonal rainfall patterns. Our aim was to test the effects of intraspecific interactions and seasonal rainfall in explaining and predicting the numerical fluctuations of these two kangaroo rats. We found that logistic models fit both data sets quite well; Dipodomys merriami showed lower maximum per capita growth rates than Dipodomys ordii, and in both cases logistic models were nonlinear. Summer rainfall appears to be the most important exogenous effect for both rodent populations; models including this variable were able to predict independent data better than models including winter rainfall. D. merriami was also negatively affected by another kangaroo rat (Dipodomys spectabilis), consistent with previous experimental evidence. We hypothesized that summer rainfall influences the carrying capacity of the environment by affecting seed availability and the intensity of intraspecific competition.

Coexistence of three specialist aphids on common milkweed, Asclepias syriaca

Coexistence of host-specific herbivores on plants is believed to be governed by interspecific interactions, but few empirical studies have systematically unraveled these dynamics. We investigated the role of several factors in promoting coexistence among the aphids Aphis nerii, Aphis asclepiadis, and Myzocallis asclepiadis that all specialize on common milkweed (Asclepias syriaca). Competitive exclusion is thought to occur when interspecific competition is stronger than intraspecific competition. Consequently, we investigated whether predators, mutualists, or resource quality affected the strength of intra- vs. interspecific competition among aphids in factorial manipulations of competition with exposure to predation, ants, and variable plant genotypes in three separate experiments. In the predation x competition experiment, predators reduced aphid per capita growth by 66%, but the strength of intra- and interspecific competition did not depend on predators. In the ants x competition experiment, ants reduced per capita growth of A. nerii and M. asclepiadis (neither of which were mutualists with ants) by approximately one-half. In so doing, ants ameliorated the negative effects of these competitors on ant-tended A. asclepiadis by two-thirds, representing a novel benefit of ant-aphid mutualism. Nevertheless, ants alone did not explain the persistence of competitively inferior A. asclepiadis as, even in the presence of ants, interspecific competition remained stronger than intraspecific competition. In the plant genotype x competition experiment, both A. asclepiadis and M. asclepiadis were competitively inferior to A. nerii, with the strength of interspecific competition exceeding that of intraspecific competition by 83% and 23%, respectively. Yet these effects differed among milkweed genotypes, and there were one or more plant genotypes for each aphid species where coexistence was predicted. A synthesis of our results shows that predators play little or no role in preferentially suppressing competitively dominant A. nerii. Nonetheless, A. asclepiadis benefits from ants, and A. asclepiadis and M. asclepiadis may escape competitive exclusion by A. nerii on select milkweed genotypes. Taken as a whole, the coexistence of three host-specific aphid species sharing the same resource was promoted by the dual action of ants as antagonists and mutualists and by genetic diversity in the plant population itself.

Meta-population structure in a coral reef fish demonstrated by genetic data on patterns of migration, extinction and re-colonisation

Background

Management strategies for coral reefs are dependant on information about the spatial population structure and connectivity of reef organisms. Genetic tools can reveal important information about population structure, however, this information is lacking for many reef species. We used a mitochondrial molecular marker to examine the population genetic structure and the potential for meta-population dynamics in a direct developing coral reef fish using 283 individuals from 15 reefs on the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. We employed a hierarchical sampling design to test genetic models of population structure at multiple geographical scales including among regions, among shelf position and reefs within regions. Predictions from island, isolation-by-distance and meta-population models, including the potential for asymmetric migration, local extinction and patterns of re-colonisation were examined.

Results

Acanthochromis polyacanthus displayed strong genetic structure among regions (Φ_ST = 0.81, P < 0.0001) that supported an equilibrium isolation-by-distance model (r = 0.77, P = 0.001). Significant structuring across the continental shelf was only evident in the northern region (Φ_ST = 0.31, P < 0.001) and no evidence of isolation-by-distance was found within any region. Pairwise Φ_ST values indicated overall strong but variable genetic structure (mean Φ_ST among reefs within regions = 0.28, 0.38, 0.41), and asymmetric migration rates among reefs with low genetic structure. Genetic differentiation among younger reefs was greater than among older reefs supporting a meta-population propagule-pool colonisation model. Variation in genetic diversities, demographic expansion and population growth estimates indicated more frequent genetic bottlenecks/founder effects and subsequent population expansion in the central and southern regions compared to the northern one.

Conclusion

Our findings provide genetic evidence for meta-population dynamics in a direct developing coral reef fish and we reject the equilibrium island and isolation-by distance models at local spatial scales. Instead, strong non-equilibrium genetic structure appears to be generated by genetic bottlenecks/founder effects associated with population reductions/extinctions and asymmetric migration/(re)-colonisation of such populations. These meta-population dynamics varied across the geographical range examined with edge populations exhibiting lower genetic diversities and higher rates of population expansion than more central populations. Therefore, coral reef species may experience local population reductions/extinctions that promote overall meta-population genetic differentiation.

An empirical evaluation of the insurance hypothesis in diversity-stability models

An important stabilizing mechanism in most diversity stability models is the insurance hypothesis, which involves correlation/covariance relationships among species. These models require that species do not fluctuate synchronously over time: that is, the correlation between pairs of species does not equal 1.0. However, the strength of this stabilizing mechanism increases as correlations decline away from 1.0, especially as they become more negative and also as the summed covariance across all species pairs becomes more negative. We evaluated the importance of the insurance hypothesis as a stabilizing mechanism by examining a variety of terrestrial assemblages using long-term data from the Global Population Dynamics Database, the Breeding Bird Survey, and a long-term site in southeastern Arizona, USA. We identified co-occurring assemblages of species and calculated the Spearman rank correlations of all pairs of species and the summed covariance of the entire assemblage. We found that, in most assemblages, positive correlations were two to three times more common than negative and that the magnitude of the positive correlations tended to be stronger than the negative correlations. For all but three assemblages, the summed covariance was positive. Data from larger spatial scales tended to exhibit more positive correlations, but even at the smallest spatial scales, positive correlations outnumbered negative. We suggest that species often covary positively because coexisting species respond similarly to fluctuations in their resource base driven by climatic fluctuations. As such, our review suggests that the insurance hypothesis may not be a strong mechanism stabilizing fluctuations in natural terrestrial communities.

Impact of an extreme climatic event on community assembly

Extreme climatic events are predicted to increase in frequency and magnitude, but their ecological impacts are poorly understood. Such events are large, infrequent, stochastic perturbations that can change the outcome of entrained ecological processes. Here we show how an extreme flood event affected a desert rodent community that has been monitored for 30 years. The flood (i) caused catastrophic, species-specific mortality; (ii) eliminated the incumbency advantage of previously dominant species; (iii) reset long-term population and community trends; (iv) interacted with competitive and metapopulation dynamics; and (v) resulted in rapid, wholesale reorganization of the community. This and a previous extreme rainfall event were punctuational perturbations-they caused large, rapid population- and community-level changes that were superimposed on a background of more gradual trends driven by climate and vegetation change. Captured by chance through long-term monitoring, the impacts of such large, infrequent events provide unique insights into the processes that structure ecological communities.

REDUCED RODENT BIODIVERSITY DESTABILIZES PLANT POPULATIONS

We tested the hypothesis that species loss at one trophic level will reduce the temporal stability of populations at other trophic levels. We examined the temporal stability of annual plant populations on plots that experimentally manipulated the functional diversity of seed-eating rodent consumers. Experimental reduction of rodent functional diversity destabilized populations of small-seeded plants but had less consistent effects on larger-seeded species. Small-seeded species also exhibited a greater number of years of zero abundance. Thus, experimental reduction of rodent functional diversity resulted in lower plant diversity. The decline in the temporal stability of small-seeded plants likely resulted from increased interspecific competition by large-seeded plants. These results demonstrate that the loss of species at one trophic level can lead to reduced richness at lower trophic levels via competition and reduced temporal stability.

Cache Decision Making: The Effects of Competition on Cache Decisions in Merriam's Kangaroo Rat (Dipodomys merriami)

Caching food is an economic, decision-making process that requires animals to take many factors into account, including the risk of pilferage. However, little is known about how food-storing animals determine the risk of pilferage. In this study, the authors examined the effect of a dominant competitor species on the caching and behavior of Merriam's kangaroo rat (Dipodomys merriami). The authors found that, as with conspecific competitors, kangaroo rats did not alter caching in response to the mere presence of a heterospecific competitor, but moved caches to an unpreferred area when the competitor's presence was paired with pilferage. These data suggest that Merriam's kangaroo rat assesses pilfer risk from actual pilferage by a competitor and adaptively alters cache strategy to minimize future risk.

Trade-offs in community properties through time in a desert rodent community

Resource limitation represents an important constraint on ecological communities, which restricts the total abundance, biomass, and community energy flux a given community can support. However, the exact relationship among these three measures of biological activity remains unclear. Here we use a simple framework that links abundance and biomass with an energetic constraint. Under constant energetic availability, it is expected that changes in abundance and biomass can result from shifts in the distribution of individual masses. We test these predictions using long-term data from a desert rodent community. Total energy use for the community has not changed directionally for 25 years, but species composition has. As a result, the average body size has decreased by almost 50%, and average abundance has doubled. These results lend support to the idea of resource limitation on desert rodent communities and demonstrate that systems are able to maintain community energy flux in the face of environmental change, through changes in composition and structure.

Complex species interactions and the dynamics of ecological systems: long-term experiments

Studies that combine experimental manipulations with long-term data collection reveal elaborate interactions among species that affect the structure and dynamics of ecosystems. Research programs in U.S. desert shrubland and pinyon-juniper woodland have shown that (i) complex dynamics of species populations reflect interactions with other organisms and fluctuating climate; (ii) genotype x environment interactions affect responses of species to environmental change; (iii) herbivore-resistance traits of dominant plant species and impacts of "keystone" animal species cascade through the system to affect many organisms and ecosystem processes; and (iv) some environmental perturbations can cause wholesale reorganization of ecosystems because they exceed the ecological tolerances of dominant or keystone species, whereas other changes may be buffered because of the compensatory dynamics of complementary species.

Delayed compensation for missing keystone species by colonization

Because individual species can play key roles, the loss of species through extinction or their gain through colonization can cause major changes in ecosystems. For almost 20 years after kangaroo rats were experimentally removed from a Chihuahuan desert ecosystem in the United States, other rodent species were unable to compensate and use the available resources. This changed abruptly in 1995, when an alien species of pocket mouse colonized the ecosystem, used most of the available resources, and compensated almost completely for the missing kangaroo rats. These results demonstrate the importance of individual species and of colonization and extinction events in the structure and dynamics of ecosystems.

Reorganization of an arid ecosystem in response to recent climate change

Natural ecosystems contain many individuals and species interacting with each other and with their abiotic environment. Such systems can be expected to exhibit complex dynamics in which small perturbations can be amplified to cause large changes. Here, we document the reorganization of an arid ecosystem that has occurred since the late 1970s. The density of woody shrubs increased 3-fold. Several previously common animal species went locally extinct, while other previously rare species increased. While these changes are symptomatic of desertification, they were not caused by livestock grazing or drought, the principal causes of historical desertification. The changes apparently were caused by a shift in regional climate: since 1977 winter precipitation throughout the region was substantially higher than average for this century. These changes illustrate the kinds of large, unexpected responses of complex natural ecosystems that can occur in response to both natural perturbations and human activities.

Biodiversity. Managing nature when there are no 'ill winds'

Interspecific interactions affect biodiversity, but in unpredictable ways that change over time and space. There is little evidence for the 'ill wind that blows no good' to any species. So how can we manage nature?