Coinfection of wild ducks by influenza A viruses: distribution patterns and biological significance

Utility of Feathers for Avian Influenza Virus Detection in Commercial Poultry

The present study evaluated the potential utility of feather samples for the convenient and accurate detection of avian influenza virus (AIV) in commercial poultry. Feather samples were obtained from AIV-negative commercial layer facilities in Iowa, USA. The feathers were spiked with various concentrations (106 to 100) of a low pathogenic strain of H5N2 AIV using a nebulizing device and were evaluated for the detection of viral RNA using a real-time RT-PCR assay immediately or after incubation at -20, 4, 22, or 37 °C for 24, 48, or 72 h. Likewise, cell culture medium samples with and without the virus were prepared and used for comparison. In the spiked feathers, the PCR reliably (i.e., 100% probability of detection) detected AIV RNA in eluates from samples sprayed with 103 EID50/mL or more of the virus. Based on half-life estimates, the feathers performed better than the corresponding media samples (p < 0.05), particularly when the samples were stored at 22 or 37 °C. In conclusion, feather samples can be routinely collected from a poultry barn as a non-invasive alternative to blood or oropharyngeal-cloacal swab samples for monitoring AIV.

Characterization of neurotropic HPAI H5N1 viruses with novel genome constellations and mammalian adaptive mutations in free-living mesocarnivores in Canada

The GsGd lineage (A/goose/Guangdong/1/1996) H5N1 virus was introduced to Canada in 2021/2022 through the Atlantic and East Asia-Australasia/Pacific flyways by migratory birds. This was followed by unprecedented outbreaks affecting domestic and wild birds, with spillover into other animals. Here, we report sporadic cases of H5N1 in 40 free-living mesocarnivore species such as red foxes, striped skunks, and mink in Canada. The clinical presentations of the disease in mesocarnivores were consistent with central nervous system infection. This was supported by the presence of microscopic lesions and the presence of abundant IAV antigen by immunohistochemistry. Some red foxes that survived clinical infection developed anti-H5N1 antibodies. Phylogenetically, the H5N1 viruses from the mesocarnivore species belonged to clade 2.3.4.4b and had four different genome constellation patterns. The first group of viruses had wholly Eurasian (EA) genome segments. The other three groups were reassortant viruses containing genome segments derived from both North American (NAm) and EA influenza A viruses. Almost 17 percent of the H5N1 viruses had mammalian adaptive mutations (E627 K, E627V and D701N) in the polymerase basic protein 2 (PB2) subunit of the RNA polymerase complex. Other mutations that may favour adaptation to mammalian hosts were also present in other internal gene segments. The detection of these critical mutations in a large number of mammals within short duration after virus introduction inevitably highlights the need for continually monitoring and assessing mammalian-origin H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses for adaptive mutations, which potentially can facilitate virus replication, horizontal transmission and posing pandemic risks for humans.

Subtype specific virus enrichment with immunomagnetic separation method followed by NGS unravels the mixture of H5 and H9 avian influenza virus

Wild bird avian influenza type A virus (AIV) surveillance is important for the early detection of highly pathogenic AIVs and for providing early warnings to the poultry industry and veterinary services to implement more effective control measures against these viruses. Some field samples are often found to contain more than two kinds of AIV. Correct determination of the HA/NA subtype and complete nucleotide sequences of the component viruses in those samples are often critical for timely and accurate understanding of the field situation, but it is not easy to define the genomic structure of the constituent viruses unambiguously because AIV has eight segmented genomes. In this study, with immunomagnetic beads incorporating polyclonal antibodies of chicken for subtype-specific viral enrichment, we could selectively decrease the density of one of the two constituent viruses in a sample of different subtypes, H5 and H9, artificially generated; this was represented in the changes of Ct values with subtype specific real-time RT-PCR. Following this, with NGS, we could recover nearly complete genomic sequences and arrange the consensus sequences of gene segments of the constituent viruses confidently with the quantitative variable like genome coverage, linked along the gene segments and associated with the number of viral copies in a sample.

Investigating the Genetic Diversity of H5 Avian Influenza Viruses in the United Kingdom from 2020-2022

Since 2020, the United Kingdom and Europe have experienced annual epizootics of high-pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV). The first epizootic, during the autumn/winter of 2020-2021, involved six H5Nx subtypes, although H5N8 HPAIV dominated in the United Kingdom. While genetic assessments of the H5N8 HPAIVs within the United Kingdom demonstrated relative homogeneity, there was a background of other genotypes circulating at a lower degree with different neuraminidase and internal genes.  Following a small number of detections of H5N1 in wild birds over the summer of 2021, the autumn/winter of 2021-2022 saw another European H5 HPAIV epizootic that dwarfed the prior epizootic. This second epizootic was dominated almost exclusively by H5N1 HPAIV, although six distinct genotypes were defined. We have used genetic analysis to evaluate the emergence of different genotypes and proposed reassortment events that have been observed. The existing data suggest that the H5N1 viruses circulating in Europe during late 2020 continued to circulate in wild birds throughout 2021, with minimal adaptation, but then went on to reassort with AIVs in the wild bird population. We have undertaken an in-depth genetic assessment of H5 HPAIVs detected in the United Kingdom over two winter seasons and demonstrate the utility of in-depth genetic analyses in defining the diversity of H5 HPAIVs circulating in avian species, the potential for zoonotic risk, and whether incidents of lateral spread can be defined over independent incursions of infections from wild birds. This provides key supporting data for mitigation activities. IMPORTANCE High-pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) outbreaks devastate avian species across all sectors, having both economic and ecological impacts through mortalities in poultry and wild birds, respectively. These viruses can also represent a significant zoonotic risk. Since 2020, the United Kingdom has experienced two successive outbreaks of H5 HPAIV. While H5N8 HPAIV was predominant during the 2020-2021 outbreak, other H5 subtypes were also detected. The following year, there was a shift in the subtype dominance to H5N1 HPAIV, but multiple H5N1 genotypes were detected. Through the thorough utilization of whole-genome sequencing, it was possible to track and characterize the genetic evolution of these H5 HPAIVs in United Kingdom poultry and wild birds. This enabled us to assess the risk posed by these viruses at the poultry-wild bird and the avian-human interfaces and to investigate the potential lateral spread between infected premises, a key factor in understanding the threat to the commercial sector.

Asexual reproductive potential trumps virulence as a predictor of competitive ability in mixed infections

Natural infections frequently involve several co-infecting pathogen strains. These mixed infections can affect the extent of the infection, the transmission success of the pathogen and the eventual epidemic outcome. To date, few studies have investigated how mixed infections affect transmission between hosts. Zymoseptoria tritici is a highly diverse wheat pathogen in which multiple strains often coexist in the same lesion. Here we demonstrate that the most competitive strains often exclude their competitors during serial passages of mixed infections. The outcome of the competition depended on both the host genotype and the genotypes of the competing pathogen strains. Differences in virulence among the strains were not associated with competitive advantages during transmission, while differences in reproductive potential had a strong effect on strain competitive ability. Overall, our findings suggest that host specialization is determined mainly by the ability to successfully transmit offspring to new hosts during mixed infections.

Evolutionary features of a prolific subtype of avian influenza A virus in European waterfowl

Avian influenza A virus (AIV) is ubiquitous in waterfowl and is detected annually at high prevalence in waterfowl during the Northern Hemisphere autumn. Some AIV subtypes are globally common in waterfowl, such as H3N8, H4N6, and H6N2, and are detected in the same populations at a high frequency, annually. In order to investigate genetic features associated to the long-term maintenance of common subtypes in migratory ducks, we sequenced 248 H4 viruses isolated across 8 years (2002-9) from mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) sampled in southeast Sweden. Phylogenetic analyses showed that both H4 and N6 sequences fell into three distinct lineages, structured by year of isolation. Specifically, across the 8 years of the study, we observed lineage replacement, whereby a different HA lineage circulated in the population each year. Analysis of deduced amino acid sequences of the HA lineages illustrated key differences in regions of the globular head of hemagglutinin that overlap with established antigenic sites in homologous hemagglutinin H3, suggesting the possibility of antigenic differences among these HA lineages. Beyond HA, lineage replacement was common to all segments, such that novel genome constellations were detected across years. A dominant genome constellation would rapidly amplify in the duck population, followed by unlinking of gene segments as a result of reassortment within 2-3 weeks following introduction. These data help reveal the evolutionary dynamics exhibited by AIV on both annual and decadal scales in an important reservoir host.

Longitudinal deep sequencing informs vector selection and future deployment strategies for transmissible vaccines

Vaccination is a powerful tool in combating infectious diseases of humans and companion animals. In most wildlife, including reservoirs of emerging human diseases, achieving sufficient vaccine coverage to mitigate disease burdens remains logistically unattainable. Virally vectored "transmissible" vaccines that deliberately spread among hosts are a potentially transformative, but still theoretical, solution to the challenge of immunising inaccessible wildlife. Progress towards real-world application is frustrated by the absence of frameworks to guide vector selection and vaccine deployment prior to major in vitro and in vivo investments in vaccine engineering and testing. Here, we performed deep sequencing on field-collected samples of Desmodus rotundus betaherpesvirus (DrBHV), a candidate vector for a transmissible vaccine targeting vampire bat-transmitted rabies. We discovered 11 strains of DrBHV that varied in prevalence and geographic distribution across Peru. The phylogeographic structure of DrBHV strains was predictable from both host genetics and landscape topology, informing long-term DrBHV-vectored vaccine deployment strategies and identifying geographic areas for field trials where vaccine spread would be naturally contained. Multistrain infections were observed in 79% of infected bats. Resampling of marked individuals over 4 years showed within-host persistence kinetics characteristic of latency and reactivation, properties that might boost individual immunity and lead to sporadic vaccine transmission over the lifetime of the host. Further, strain acquisitions by already infected individuals implied that preexisting immunity and strain competition are unlikely to inhibit vaccine spread. Our results support the development of a transmissible vaccine targeting a major source of human and animal rabies in Latin America and show how genomics can enlighten vector selection and deployment strategies for transmissible vaccines.

Network Meta-Analysis of Chicken Microarray Data Following Avian Influenza Challenge—A Comparison of Highly and Lowly Pathogenic Strains

The current bioinformatics study was undertaken to analyze the transcriptome of chicken (Gallus gallus) after influenza A virus challenge. A meta-analysis was carried out to explore the host expression response after challenge with lowly pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) (H1N1, H2N3, H5N2, H5N3 and H9N2) and with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 strains. To do so, ten microarray datasets obtained from the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO) database were normalized and meta-analyzed for the LPAI and HPAI host response individually. Different undirected networks were constructed and their metrics determined e.g., degree centrality, closeness centrality, harmonic centrality, subgraph centrality and eigenvector centrality. The results showed that, based on criteria of centrality, the CMTR1, EPSTI1, RNF213, HERC4L, IFIT5 and LY96 genes were the most significant during HPAI challenge, with PARD6G, HMG20A, PEX14, RNF151 and TLK1L having the lowest values. However, for LPAI challenge, ZDHHC9, IMMP2L, COX7C, RBM18, DCTN3, and NDUFB1 genes had the largest values for aforementioned criteria, with GTF3C5, DROSHA, ATRX, RFWD2, MED23 and SEC23B genes having the lowest values. The results of this study can be used as a basis for future development of treatments/preventions of the effects of avian influenza in chicken.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza in Bulgaria - a review

The aim of this review was to summarise the information about the cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza in Bulgaria during the last two decades. According to the EMPRES-I FAO data, from January 2006 to the end of 2019, 141 HPAI outbreaks have been registered in Bulgaria, with two identified virus serotypes (H5N1 and H5N8). The H5N1 outbreaks were reported in 2006, 2010 and 2015. Almost all H5N1 cases were observed in wild birds, with only one outbreak in domestic chickens in a backyard farm in 2015. From 2016 to the end of 2019, 132 outbreaks of HPAI identified as H5N8 were recorded: sixteen in wild birds and the other 116 - in domestic poultry. Large farms with fattening ducks used for foie gras production in four administrative districts (Plovdiv, Haskovo, Stara Zagora, Dobrich) were mainly affected.

Analysis of the Genetic Diversity Associated With the Drug Resistance and Pathogenicity of Influenza A Virus Isolated in Bangladesh From 2002 to 2019

The subtype prevalence, drug resistance- and pathogenicity-associated mutations, and the distribution of the influenza A virus (IAV) isolates identified in Bangladesh from 2002 to 2019 were analyzed using bioinformatic tools. A total of 30 IAV subtypes have been identified in humans (4), avian species (29), and environment (5) in Bangladesh. The predominant subtypes in human and avian species are H1N1/H3N2 and H5N1/H9N2, respectively. However, the subtypes H5N1/H9N2 infecting humans and H3N2/H1N1 infecting avian species have also been identified. Among the avian species, the maximum number of subtypes (27) have been identified in ducks. A 3.56% of the isolates showed neuraminidase inhibitor (NAI) resistance with a prevalence of 8.50, 1.33, and 2.67% in avian species, humans, and the environment, respectively, the following mutations were detected: V116A, I117V, D198N, I223R, S247N, H275Y, and N295S. Prevalence of adamantane-resistant IAVs was 100, 50, and 30.54% in humans, the environment, and avian species, respectively, the subtypes H3N2, H1N1, H9N2, and H5N2 were highly prevalent, with the subtype H5N1 showing a comparatively lower prevalence. Important PB2 mutations such D9N, K526R, A588V, A588I, G590S, Q591R, E627K, K702R, and S714R were identified. A wide range of IAV subtypes have been identified in Bangladesh with a diversified genetic variation in the NA, M2, and PB2 proteins providing drug resistance and enhanced pathogenicity. This study provides a detailed analysis of the subtypes, and the host range of the IAV isolates and the genetic variations related to their proteins, which may aid in the prevention, treatment, and control of IAV infections in Bangladesh, and would serve as a basis for future investigations.

Environmental Sampling for Avian Influenza Virus Detection in Commercial Layer Facilities

The present study was designed to evaluate the utility of environmental samples for convenient but accurate detection of avian influenza virus (AIV) in commercial poultry houses. First, environmental samples from AIV-negative commercial layer facilities were spiked with an H5N2 low pathogenic AIV and were evaluated for their effect on the detection of viral RNA immediately or after incubation at -20 C, 4 C, 22 C, or 37 C for 24, 48, or 72 hr. Second, Swiffer pads, drag swabs, and boot cover swabs were evaluated for their efficiency in collecting feces and water spiked with the H5N2 LPAIV under a condition simulated for a poultry facility floor. Third, environmental samples collected from commercial layer facilities that experienced an H5N2 highly pathogenic AIV outbreak in 2014-15 were evaluated for the effect of sampling locations on AIV detection. The half-life of AIV was comparable across all environmental samples but decreased with increasing temperatures. Additionally, sampling devices did not differ significantly in their ability to collect AIV-spiked environmental samples from a concrete floor for viral RNA detection. Some locations within a poultry house, such as cages, egg belts, house floor, manure belts, and manure pits, were better choices for sampling than other locations (feed trough, ventilation fan, and water trays) to detect AIV RNA after cleaning and disinfection. Samples representing cages, floor, and manure belts yielded significantly more PCR positives than the other environmental samples. In conclusion, environmental samples can be routinely collected from a poultry barn as noninvasive samples for monitoring AIV.

Hemagglutinin Stability and Its Impact on Influenza A Virus Infectivity, Pathogenicity, and Transmissibility in Avians, Mice, Swine, Seals, Ferrets, and Humans

Genetically diverse influenza A viruses (IAVs) circulate in wild aquatic birds. From this reservoir, IAVs sporadically cause outbreaks, epidemics, and pandemics in wild and domestic avians, wild land and sea mammals, horses, canines, felines, swine, humans, and other species. One molecular trait shown to modulate IAV host range is the stability of the hemagglutinin (HA) surface glycoprotein. The HA protein is the major antigen and during virus entry, this trimeric envelope glycoprotein binds sialic acid-containing receptors before being triggered by endosomal low pH to undergo irreversible structural changes that cause membrane fusion. The HA proteins from different IAV isolates can vary in the pH at which HA protein structural changes are triggered, the protein causes membrane fusion, or outside the cell the virion becomes inactivated. HA activation pH values generally range from pH 4.8 to 6.2. Human-adapted HA proteins tend to have relatively stable HA proteins activated at pH 5.5 or below. Here, studies are reviewed that report HA stability values and investigate the biological impact of variations in HA stability on replication, pathogenicity, and transmissibility in experimental animal models. Overall, a stabilized HA protein appears to be necessary for human pandemic potential and should be considered when assessing human pandemic risk.

Reassortment and Persistence of Influenza A Viruses from Diverse Geographic Origins within Australian Wild Birds: Evidence from a Small, Isolated Population of Ruddy Turnstones

Australian lineages of avian influenza A viruses (AIVs) are thought to be phylogenetically distinct from those circulating in Eurasia and the Americas, suggesting the circulation of endemic viruses seeded by occasional introductions from other regions. However, processes underlying the introduction, evolution and maintenance of AIVs in Australia remain poorly understood. Waders (order Charadriiformes, family Scolopacidae) may play a unique role in the ecology and evolution of AIVs, particularly in Australia, where ducks, geese, and swans (order Anseriformes, family Anatidae) rarely undertake intercontinental migrations. Across a 5-year surveillance period (2011 to 2015), ruddy turnstones (Arenaria interpres) that "overwinter" during the Austral summer in southeastern Australia showed generally low levels of AIV prevalence (0 to 2%). However, in March 2014, we detected AIVs in 32% (95% confidence interval [CI], 25 to 39%) of individuals in a small, low-density, island population 90 km from the Australian mainland. This epizootic comprised three distinct AIV genotypes, each of which represent a unique reassortment of Australian-, recently introduced Eurasian-, and recently introduced American-lineage gene segments. Strikingly, the Australian-lineage gene segments showed high similarity to those of H10N7 viruses isolated in 2010 and 2012 from poultry outbreaks 900 to 1,500 km to the north. Together with the diverse geographic origins of the American and Eurasian gene segments, these findings suggest extensive circulation and reassortment of AIVs within Australian wild birds over vast geographic distances. Our findings indicate that long-term surveillance in waders may yield unique insights into AIV gene flow, especially in geographic regions like Oceania, where Anatidae species do not display regular inter- or intracontinental migration.IMPORTANCE High prevalence of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) was detected in a small, low-density, isolated population of ruddy turnstones in Australia. Analysis of these viruses revealed relatively recent introductions of viral gene segments from both Eurasia and North America, as well as long-term persistence of introduced gene segments in Australian wild birds. These data demonstrate that the flow of viruses into Australia may be more common than initially thought and that, once introduced, these AIVs have the potential to be maintained within the continent. These findings add to a growing body of evidence suggesting that Australian wild birds are unlikely to be ecologically isolated from the highly pathogenic H5Nx viruses circulating among wild birds throughout the Northern Hemisphere.

Characterization of Avian Influenza Virus H10-H12 Subtypes Isolated from Wild Birds in Shanghai, China from 2016 to 2019

H10, H11 and H12 (H10-H12) subtypes of the avian influenza virus (AIV) are associated with waterfowl. Although these subtypes of AIV are infrequently detected in nature, they can undergo reassortment with other AIV subtypes. Few H10-H12 subtypes of AIV have been isolated from wild birds in China. In this study, 12 AIV isolates of H10-H12 subtypes were identified via routine surveillance of wild birds in Shanghai, China from 2016 to 2019, including two H10, three H11 and seven H12 isolates. Sequence and phylogenetic analyses revealed that the genomic segments of the 12 isolates are highly diverse. These 12 isolates are closely related to those in the Eurasian lineage and share a high degree of sequence identity with those from wild birds and domestic ducks in countries in the East Asian-Australasian Flyway, including Japan, Korea, Bangladesh, Vietnam and China. However, parts of the genomic segments of two H12N2 isolates (NH112319-H12N2 and NH101807-H12N2) belong to the North American lineage, suggesting intercontinental reassortment among H12 AIVs in Eurasia and North American. To better understand the ecological and phylodynamic features of H10-H12 subtypes in wild birds, a large-scale surveillance of AIVs in wild birds is warranted.

Combination of multiplex reverse transcription recombinase polymerase amplification assay and capillary electrophoresis provides high sensitive and high-throughput simultaneous detection of avian influenza virus subtypes

The pandemic of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in Asia has caused enormous economic loss in poultry industry and human health threat, especially clade 2.3.4.4 H5 and H7 subtypes in recent years. The endemic chicken H6 virus in Taiwan has also brought about human and dog infections. Since wild waterfowls is the major AIV reservoir, it is important to monitor the diversified subtypes in wildfowl flocks in early stage to prevent viral reassortment and transmission. To develop a more efficient and sensitive approach is a key issue in epidemic control. In this study, we integrate multiplex reverse transcription recombinase polymerase amplification (RT-RPA) and capillary electrophoresis (CE) for high-throughput detection and differentiation of AIVs in wild waterfowls in Taiwan. Four viral genes were detected simultaneously, including nucleoprotein (NP) gene of all AIVs, hemagglutinin (HA) gene of clade 2.3.4.4 H5, H6 and H7 subtypes. The detection limit of the developed detection system could achieve as low as one copy number for each of the four viral gene targets. Sixty wild waterfowl field samples were tested and all of the four gene signals were unambiguously identified within 6 h, including the initial sample processing and the final CE data analysis. The results indicated that multiplex RT-RPA combined with CE was an excellent alternative for instant simultaneous AIV detection and subtype differentiation. The high efficiency and sensitivity of the proposed method could greatly assist in wild bird monitoring and epidemic control of poultry.

Adaptation of H9N2 Influenza Viruses to Mammalian Hosts: A Review of Molecular Markers

As the number of human infections with avian and swine influenza viruses continues to rise, the pandemic risk posed by zoonotic influenza viruses cannot be underestimated. Implementation of global pandemic preparedness efforts has largely focused on H5 and H7 avian influenza viruses; however, the pandemic threat posed by other subtypes of avian influenza viruses, especially the H9 subtype, should not be overlooked. In this review, we summarize the literature pertaining to the emergence, prevalence and risk assessment of H9N2 viruses, and add new molecular analyses of key mammalian adaptation markers in the hemagglutinin and polymerase proteins. Available evidence has demonstrated that H9N2 viruses within the Eurasian lineage continue to evolve, leading to the emergence of viruses with an enhanced receptor binding preference for human-like receptors and heightened polymerase activity in mammalian cells. Furthermore, the increased prevalence of certain mammalian adaptation markers and the enhanced transmissibility of selected viruses in mammalian animal models add to the pandemic risk posed by this virus subtype. Continued surveillance of zoonotic H9N2 influenza viruses, inclusive of close genetic monitoring and phenotypic characterization in animal models, should be included in our pandemic preparedness efforts.

Global patterns of avian influenza A (H7): virus evolution and zoonotic threats

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) continue to impose a negative impact on animal and human health worldwide. In particular, the emergence of highly pathogenic AIV H5 and, more recently, the emergence of low pathogenic AIV H7N9 have led to enormous socioeconomical losses in the poultry industry and resulted in fatal human infections. While H5N1 remains infamous, the number of zoonotic infections with H7N9 has far surpassed those attributed to H5. Despite the clear public health concerns posed by AIV H7, it is unclear why specifically this virus subtype became endemic in poultry and emerged in humans. In this review, we bring together data on global patterns of H7 circulation, evolution and emergence in humans. Specifically, we discuss data from the wild bird reservoir, expansion and epidemiology in poultry, significant increase in their zoonotic potential since 2013 and genesis of highly pathogenic H7. In addition, we analysed available sequence data from an evolutionary perspective, demonstrating patterns of introductions into distinct geographic regions and reassortment dynamics. The integration of all aspects is crucial in the optimisation of surveillance efforts in wild birds, poultry and humans, and we emphasise the need for a One Health approach in controlling emerging viruses such as AIV H7.

Improving risk assessment of the emergence of novel influenza A viruses by incorporating environmental surveillance

Reassortment is an evolutionary mechanism by which influenza A viruses (IAV) generate genetic novelty. Reassortment is an important driver of host jumps and is widespread according to retrospective surveillance studies. However, predicting the epidemiological risk of reassortant emergence in novel hosts from surveillance data remains challenging. IAV strains persist and co-occur in the environment, promoting co-infection during environmental transmission. These conditions offer opportunity to understand reassortant emergence in reservoir and spillover hosts. Specifically, environmental RNA could provide rich information for understanding the evolutionary ecology of segmented viruses, and transform our ability to quantify epidemiological risk to spillover hosts. However, significant challenges with recovering and interpreting genomic RNA from the environment have impeded progress towards predicting reassortant emergence from environmental surveillance data. We discuss how the fields of genomics, experimental ecology and epidemiological modelling are well positioned to address these challenges. Coupling quantitative disease models and natural transmission studies with new molecular technologies, such as deep-mutational scanning and single-virus sequencing of environmental samples, should dramatically improve our understanding of viral co-occurrence and reassortment. We define observable risk metrics for emerging molecular technologies and propose a conceptual research framework for improving accuracy and efficiency of risk prediction. This article is part of the theme issue 'Dynamic and integrative approaches to understanding pathogen spillover'.

Transmission Fitness in Co-colonization and the Persistence of Bacterial Pathogens

Humans are often colonized by polymorphic bacteria such as Streptococcus pneumoniae, Bordetella pertussis, Staphylococcus Aureus, and Haemophilus influenzae. Two co-colonizing pathogen clones may interact with each other upon host entry and during within-host dynamics, ranging from competition to facilitation. Here we examine the significance of these exploitation strategies for bacterial spread and persistence in host populations. We model SIS epidemiological dynamics to capture the global behavior of such multi-strain systems, focusing on different parameters of single and dual colonization. We analyze the impact of heterogeneity in clearance and transmission rates of single and dual colonization and find the criteria under which these asymmetries enhance endemic persistence. We obtain a backward bifurcation near [Formula: see text] if the reproductive value of the parasite in dually infected hosts is sufficiently higher than that in singly infected ones. In such cases, the parasite is able to persist even in sub-threshold conditions, and reducing the basic reproduction number below 1 would be insufficient for elimination. The fitness superiority in co-colonized hosts can be attained by lowering net parasite clearance rate ([Formula: see text]), by increasing transmission rate ([Formula: see text]), or both, and coupling between these traits critically constrains opportunities of pathogen survival in the [Formula: see text] regime. Finally, using an adaptive dynamics approach, we verify that despite their importance for sub-threshold endemicity, traits expressed exclusively in coinfection should generally evolve independently of single infection traits. In particular, for [Formula: see text] a saturating parabolic or hyperbolic function of [Formula: see text], co-colonization traits evolve to an intermediate optimum (evolutionarily stable strategy, ESS), determined only by host lifespan and the trade-off parameters linking [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]. Our study invites more empirical attention to the dynamics and evolution of parasite life-history traits expressed exclusively in coinfection.

Unique Infectious Strategy of H5N1 Avian Influenza Virus Is Governed by the Acid-Destabilized Property of Hemagglutinin

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus emerged in 1997 as a zoonotic disease in Hong Kong. It has since spread to Asia and Europe and is a serious threat to both the poultry industry and human health. For effective surveillance and possible prevention/control of HPAI H5N1 viruses, it is necessary to understand the molecular mechanism underlying HPAI H5N1 pathogenesis. The hemagglutinin (HA) protein of influenza A viruses (IAVs) is one of the major determinants of host adaptation, transmissibility, and viral virulence. The main function of the HA protein is to facilitate viral entry and viral genome release within host cells before infection. To achieve viral infection, IAVs belonging to different subtypes or strains induce viral-cell membrane fusion at different endosomal pH levels after internalization through endocytosis. However, host-specific endosomal pH also affects induction of membrane fusion followed by infection. The HA protein of HPAI H5N1 has a higher pH threshold for membrane fusion than the HA protein of classical avian influenza viruses. Although this particular property of HA (which governs viral infection) is prone to deactivation in the avian intestine or in an ambient environment, it facilitates efficient infection of host cells, resulting in a broad host tropism, regardless of the pH in the host endosome. Accumulated knowledge, together with further research, about the HA-governed mechanism underlying HPAI H5N1 virulence (i.e., receptor tropism and pH-dependent viral-cell membrane fusion) will be helpful for developing effective surveillance strategies and for prevention/control of HPAI H5N1 infection.

Discordant detection of avian influenza virus subtypes in time and space between poultry and wild birds; Towards improvement of surveillance programs

Avian influenza viruses from wild birds can cause outbreaks in poultry, and occasionally infect humans upon exposure to infected poultry. Identification and characterization of viral reservoirs and transmission routes is important to develop strategies that prevent infection of poultry, and subsequently virus transmission between poultry holdings and to humans. Based on spatial, temporal and phylogenetic analyses of data generated as part of intense and large-scale influenza surveillance programs in wild birds and poultry in the Netherlands from 2006 to 2011, we demonstrate that LPAIV subtype distribution differed between wild birds and poultry, suggestive of host-range restrictions. LPAIV isolated from Dutch poultry were genetically most closely related to LPAIV isolated from wild birds in the Netherlands or occasionally elsewhere in Western Europe. However, a relatively long time interval was observed between the isolations of related viruses from wild birds and poultry. Spatial analyses provided evidence for mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) being more abundant near primary infected poultry farms. Detailed year-round investigation of virus prevalence and wild bird species distribution and behavior near poultry farms should be used to improve risk assessment in relation to avian influenza virus introduction and retarget avian influenza surveillance programs.

Adaptive Heterosubtypic Immunity to Low Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses in Experimentally Infected Mallards

Mallards are widely recognized as reservoirs for Influenza A viruses (IAV); however, host factors that might prompt seasonality and trends in subtype diversity of IAV such as adaptive heterosubtypic immunity (HSI) are not well understood. To investigate this, we inoculated mallards with a prevailing H3N8 low pathogenic avian influenza virus (LPAIV) subtype in waterfowl to determine if prior infection with this virus would be protective against heterosubtypic infections with the H4N6, H10N7 and H14N5 LPAIV subtypes after one, two and three months, respectively. Also, we investigated the effect of cumulative immunity after sequential inoculation of mallards with these viruses in one-month intervals. Humoral immunity was assessed by microneutralization assays using a subset of representative LPAIV subtypes as antigens. Our results indicate that prior inoculation with the H3N8 virus confers partial protective immunity against subsequent heterosubtypic infections with the robustness of HSI related to the phylogenetic similarity of the HA protein of the strains used. Furthermore, induced HSI was boosted and followed by repeated exposure to more than one LPAIV subtype. Our findings provide further information on the contributions of HSI and its role in the dynamics of IAV subtype diversity in mallards.

Of Ducks and Men: Ecology and Evolution of a Zoonotic Pathogen in a Wild Reservoir Host

A hallmark of disease is that most pathogens are able to infect more than one host species. However, for most pathogens, we still have a limited understanding of how this affects epidemiology, persistence and virulence of infections—including several zoonotic pathogens that reside in wild animal reservoirs and spillover into humans. In this chapter, we review the current knowledge of mallard (Anas platyrhynchos) as host for pathogens. This species is widely distributed, often occupying habitats close to humans and livestock, and is an important game bird species and the ancestor to domestic ducks—thereby being an excellent model species to highlight aspects of the wildlife, domestic animal interface and the relevance for human health. We discuss mallard as host for a range of pathogens but focus more in depth of it as a reservoir host for influenza A virus (IAV). Over the last decades, IAV research has surged, prompted in part to the genesis and spread of highly pathogenic virus variants that have been devastating to domestic poultry and caused a number of human spillover infections. The aim of this chapter is to synthesise and review the intricate interactions of virus, host and environmental factors governing IAV epidemiology and evolution.

Coinfection Dynamics of Two Diseases in a Single Host Population

A susceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) epidemic model that describes the coinfection and cotransmission of two infectious diseases spreading through a single population is studied. The host population consists of two subclasses: susceptible and infectious, and the infectious individuals are further divided into three subgroups: those infected by the first agent/pathogen, the second agent/pathogen, and both. The basic reproduction numbers for all cases are derived which completely determine the global stability of the system if the presence of one agent/pathogen does not affect the transmission of the other. When the constraint on the transmissibility of the dually infected hosts is removed, we introduce the invasion reproduction number, compare it with two other types of reproduction number and show the uniform persistence of both diseases under certain conditions. Numerical simulations suggest that the system can display much richer dynamics such as backward bifurcation, bistability and Hopf bifurcation.

Filamentous Influenza Viruses

Influenza A virus is a pathogen of global medical importance causing significant health and socio-economic costs every year. Influenza virus is an unusual pathogen in that it is pleomorphic, capable of forming virions ranging in shape from spherical to filamentous. Despite decades of research on the influenza virus, much remains unknown about the formation of filamentous influenza viruses and their role in the viral replication cycle. Here, we discuss what is known about influenza virus assembly and budding, focusing on the viral and host factors that are involved in the determination of viral morphology. Whilst the biological function of the filamentous morphology remains unknown, recent results suggest a role in facilitating viral spread in vivo. We discuss these results and speculate on the consequences of viral morphology during influenza virus infection of the human respiratory tract.

Multiple-genotype infections and their complex effect on virulence

Multiple infections are common. Although in recent years our understanding of multiple infections has increased significantly, it has also become clear that a diversity of aspects has to be considered to understand the interplay between co-infecting parasite genotypes of the same species and its implications for virulence and epidemiology, resulting in high complexity. Here, we review different interaction mechanisms described for multiple infections ranging from competition to cooperation. We also list factors influencing the interaction between co-infecting parasite genotypes and their influence on virulence. Finally, we emphasise the importance of between-host effects and their evolution for understanding multiple infections and their implications.

Co-circulation of H5N6, H3N2, H3N8, and Emergence of Novel Reassortant H3N6 in a Local Community in Hunan Province in China

Multiple infections of avian influenza viruses (AIVs) in poultry or wild birds contribute to the continued evolution of H5 subtype viruses in nature and provide potential recombination of AIVs of different origins. In this study, we carried out surveillance of AIVs in ducks, geese and the environment of a community in Hunan province, China, from 2014–2015. We isolated multiple co-circulated AIVs including H3N2, H3N8, and H5N6, and, most importantly, a novel reassortant: H3N6. Phylogenetic analyses suggest that H3N6 is highly likely derived from H5N6, which has recently been shown to have zoonotic potential with human infections. Studies with mammalian cell lines and a mouse model indicate that four selected AIVs of duck or goose origin can infect MDCK and A549 cells but have low pathogenicity in mice. We propose that a potential co-circulation of multiple subtypes including H5N6 in local area may result in the production of novel subtypes such as H3N6 by gene reassortment.

Differential Viral Fitness Between H1N1 and H3N8 Avian Influenza Viruses Isolated from Mallards (Anas platyrhynchos)

Homosubtypic and heterosubtypic immunity in mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) play an important role in the avian influenza virus (AIV) diversity. The mechanisms of AIV replication among wild birds and the role of immunity in AIV diversity have thus not been completely clarified. During the monitoring of AI circulation among wild waterfowl in 2007-2008, two viruses (H3N8 and H1N1) were isolated from ducks caught in a funnel trap located in La Hulpe wetland in Belgium. H3N8 viruses were revealed to be more prevalent in the mallard population than was H1N1, which might suggest a better adaptation to this species. In order to investigate this hypothesis, we characterized both isolated viruses biologically by experimental inoculation. Virus excretion and humoral response induced by both isolated viruses were evaluated in mallards after a first infection followed by a homo- or heterosubtypic reinfection under controlled experimental conditions. The H1N1 virus had a delayed peak of excretion of 4 days compared to the H3N8, but the virus shedding was more limited, earlier, and shorter after each reinfection. Moreover, the H3N8 virus could spread to all ducks after homo- or heterosubtypic reinfections and during a longer period. Although the humoral response induced by both viruses after infection and reinfection could be detected efficiently by competitive ELISA, only a minimal H1 antibody response and almost no H3-specific antibodies could be detected by the HI test. Our results suggest that the H3N8 isolate replicates better in mallards under experimental controlled conditions.

How Does Sampling Methodology Influence Molecular Detection and Isolation Success in Influenza A Virus Field Studies?

Wild waterfowl are important reservoir hosts for influenza A virus (IAV) and a potential source of spillover infections in other hosts, including poultry and swine. The emergence of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses, such as H5N1 and H5N8, and subsequent spread along migratory flyways prompted the initiation of several programs in Europe, North America, and Africa to monitor circulation of HPAI and low-pathogenicity precursor viruses (low-pathogenicity avian influenza [LPAI] viruses). Given the costs of maintaining such programs, it is essential to establish best practice for field methodologies to provide robust data for epidemiological interpretation. Here, we use long-term surveillance data from a single site to evaluate the influence of a number of parameters on virus detection and isolation of LPAI viruses. A total of 26,586 samples (oropharyngeal, fecal, and cloacal) collected from wild mallards were screened by real-time PCR, and positive samples were subjected to isolation in embryonated chicken eggs. The LPAI virus detection rate was influenced by the sample type: cloacal/fecal samples showed a consistently higher detection rate and lower cycle threshold (Ct) value than oropharyngeal samples. Molecular detection was more sensitive than isolation, and virus isolation success was proportional to the number of RNA copies in the sample. Interestingly, for a given Ct value, the isolation success was lower in samples from adult birds than in those from juveniles. Comparing the results of specific real-time reverse transcriptase (RRT)-PCRs and of isolation, it was clear that coinfections were common in the investigated birds. The effects of sample type and detection methods warrant some caution in interpretation of the surveillance data.

Influenza A virus on oceanic islands: host and viral diversity in seabirds in the Western Indian Ocean

Ducks and seabirds are natural hosts for influenza A viruses (IAV). On oceanic islands, the ecology of IAV could be affected by the relative diversity, abundance and density of seabirds and ducks. Seabirds are the most abundant and widespread avifauna in the Western Indian Ocean and, in this region, oceanic islands represent major breeding sites for a large diversity of potential IAV host species. Based on serological assays, we assessed the host range of IAV and the virus subtype diversity in terns of the islands of the Western Indian Ocean. We further investigated the spatial variation in virus transmission patterns between islands and identified the origin of circulating viruses using a molecular approach. Our findings indicate that terns represent a major host for IAV on oceanic islands, not only for seabird-related virus subtypes such as H16, but also for those commonly isolated in wild and domestic ducks (H3, H6, H9, H12 subtypes). We also identified strong species-associated variation in virus exposure that may be associated to differences in the ecology and behaviour of terns. We discuss the role of tern migrations in the spread of viruses to and between oceanic islands, in particular for the H2 and H9 IAV subtypes.

Widespread recombination, reassortment, and transmission of unbalanced compound viral genotypes in natural arenavirus infections

Arenaviruses are one of the largest families of human hemorrhagic fever viruses and are known to infect both mammals and snakes. Arenaviruses package a large (L) and small (S) genome segment in their virions. For segmented RNA viruses like these, novel genotypes can be generated through mutation, recombination, and reassortment. Although it is believed that an ancient recombination event led to the emergence of a new lineage of mammalian arenaviruses, neither recombination nor reassortment has been definitively documented in natural arenavirus infections. Here, we used metagenomic sequencing to survey the viral diversity present in captive arenavirus-infected snakes. From 48 infected animals, we determined the complete or near complete sequence of 210 genome segments that grouped into 23 L and 11 S genotypes. The majority of snakes were multiply infected, with up to 4 distinct S and 11 distinct L segment genotypes in individual animals. This S/L imbalance was typical: in all cases intrahost L segment genotypes outnumbered S genotypes, and a particular S segment genotype dominated in individual animals and at a population level. We corroborated sequencing results by qRT-PCR and virus isolation, and isolates replicated as ensembles in culture. Numerous instances of recombination and reassortment were detected, including recombinant segments with unusual organizations featuring 2 intergenic regions and superfluous content, which were capable of stable replication and transmission despite their atypical structures. Overall, this represents intrahost diversity of an extent and form that goes well beyond what has been observed for arenaviruses or for viruses in general. This diversity can be plausibly attributed to the captive intermingling of sub-clinically infected wild-caught snakes. Thus, beyond providing a unique opportunity to study arenavirus evolution and adaptation, these findings allow the investigation of unintended anthropogenic impacts on viral ecology, diversity, and disease potential.

DNA microarray global gene expression analysis of influenza virus-infected chicken and duck cells

The data described in this article pertain to the article by Kuchipudi et al. (2014) titled "Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Virus Infection in Chickens But Not Ducks Is Associated with Elevated Host Immune and Pro-inflammatory Responses" [1]. While infection of chickens with highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 virus subtypes often leads to 100% mortality within 1 to 2 days, infection of ducks in contrast causes mild or no clinical signs. The rapid onset of fatal disease in chickens, but with no evidence of severe clinical symptoms in ducks, suggests underlying differences in their innate immune mechanisms. We used Chicken Genechip microarrays (Affymetrix) to analyse the gene expression profiles of primary chicken and duck lung cells infected with a low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) H2N3 virus and two HPAI H5N1 virus subtypes to understand the molecular basis of host susceptibility and resistance in chickens and ducks. Here, we described the experimental design, quality control and analysis that were performed on the data set. The data are publicly available through the Gene Expression Omnibus (GEO)database with accession number GSE33389, and the analysis and interpretation of these data are included in Kuchipudi et al. (2014) [1].

Novel human H7N9 influenza virus in China

Outbreaks of H7N9 avian influenza in humans in 5 provinces and 2 municipalities of China have reawakened concern that avian influenza viruses may again cross species barriers to infect the human population and thereby initiate a new influenza pandemic. Evolutionary analysis shows that human H7N9 influenza viruses originated from the H9N2, H7N3 and H11N9 avian viruses, and that it is as a novel reassortment influenza virus. This article reviews current knowledge on 11 subtypes of influenza A virus from human which can cause human infections.

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus infection in chickens but not ducks is associated with elevated host immune and pro-inflammatory responses

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N1 viruses cause severe infection in chickens at near complete mortality, but corresponding infection in ducks is typically mild or asymptomatic. To understand the underlying molecular differences in host response, primary chicken and duck lung cells, infected with two HPAI H5N1 viruses and a low pathogenicity avian influenza (LPAI) H2N3 virus, were subjected to RNA expression profiling. Chicken cells but not duck cells showed highly elevated immune and pro-inflammatory responses following HPAI virus infection. HPAI H5N1 virus challenge studies in chickens and ducks corroborated the in vitro findings. To try to determine the underlying mechanisms, we investigated the role of signal transducer and activator of transcription-3 (STAT-3) in mediating pro-inflammatory response to HPAIV infection in chicken and duck cells. We found that STAT-3 expression was down-regulated in chickens but was up-regulated or unaffected in ducks in vitro and in vivo following H5N1 virus infection. Low basal STAT-3 expression in chicken cells was completely inhibited by H5N1 virus infection. By contrast, constitutively active STAT-3 detected in duck cells was unaffected by H5N1 virus infection. Transient constitutively-active STAT-3 transfection in chicken cells significantly reduced pro-inflammatory response to H5N1 virus infection; on the other hand, chemical inhibition of STAT-3 activation in duck cells increased pro-inflammatory gene expression following H5N1 virus infection. Collectively, we propose that elevated pro-inflammatory response in chickens is a major pathogenicity factor of HPAI H5N1 virus infection, mediated in part by the inhibition of STAT-3.

Investigation of avian influenza virus in poultry and wild birds due to novel avian-origin influenza A(H10N8) in Nanchang City, China

Multiple reassortment events within poultry and wild birds had resulted in the establishment of another novel avian influenza A(H10N8) virus, and finally resulted in human death in Nanchang, China. However, there was a paucity of information on the prevalence of avian influenza virus in poultry and wild birds in Nanchang area. We investigated avian influenza virus in poultry and wild birds from live poultry markets, poultry countyards, delivery vehicles, and wild-bird habitats in Nanchang. We analyzed 1036 samples from wild birds and domestic poultry collected from December 2013 to February 2014. Original biological samples were tested for the presence of avian influenza virus using specific primer and probe sets of H5, H7, H9, H10 and N8 subtypes by real-time RT-PCR. In our analysis, the majority (97.98%) of positive samples were from live poultry markets. Among the poultry samples from chickens and ducks, AIV prevalence was 26.05 and 30.81%, respectively. Mixed infection of different HA subtypes was very common. Additionally, H10 subtypes coexistence with N8 was the most prevalent agent during the emergence of H10N8. This event illustrated a long-term surveillance was so helpful for pandemic preparedness and response.

Occurrence and reassortment of avian influenza A (H7N9) viruses derived from coinfected birds in China

Over the course of two waves of infection, H7N9 avian influenza A virus has caused 436 human infections and claimed 170 lives in China as of July 2014. To investigate the prevalence and genetic diversity of H7N9, we surveyed avian influenza viruses in poultry in Jiangsu province within the outbreak epicenter. We found frequent occurrence of H7N9/H9N2 coinfection in chickens. Molecular clock phylogenetic analysis confirms coinfection by H7N9/H9N2 viruses and also reveals that the identity of the H7N9 outbreak lineage is confounded by ongoing reassortment between outbreak viruses and diverse H9N2 viruses in domestic birds. Experimental inoculation of a coinfected sample in cell culture yielded two reassortant H7N9 strains with polymerase segments from the original H9N2 strain. Ongoing reassortment between the H7N9 outbreak lineage and diverse H9N2 viruses may generate new strains with the potential to infect humans, highlighting the need for continued viral surveillance in poultry and humans.

IMPORTANCE

We found frequent occurrence of H7N9/H9N2 coinfection in chickens. The H7N9 outbreak lineage is confounded by ongoing reassortment between H7N9 and H9N2 viruses. The importance of H9N2 viruses as the source of novel avian influenza virus infections in humans requires continuous attention.

Adaptive evolution and environmental durability jointly structure phylodynamic patterns in avian influenza viruses

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have been pivotal to the origination of human pandemic strains. Despite their scientific and public health significance, however, there remains much to be understood about the ecology and evolution of AIVs in wild birds, where major pools of genetic diversity are generated and maintained. Here, we present comparative phylodynamic analyses of human and AIVs in North America, demonstrating (i) significantly higher standing genetic diversity and (ii) phylogenetic trees with a weaker signature of immune escape in AIVs than in human viruses. To explain these differences, we performed statistical analyses to quantify the relative contribution of several potential explanations. We found that HA genetic diversity in avian viruses is determined by a combination of factors, predominantly subtype-specific differences in host immune selective pressure and the ecology of transmission (in particular, the durability of subtypes in aquatic environments). Extending this analysis using a computational model demonstrated that virus durability may lead to long-term, indirect chains of transmission that, when coupled with a short host lifespan, can generate and maintain the observed high levels of genetic diversity. Further evidence in support of this novel finding was found by demonstrating an association between subtype-specific environmental durability and predicted phylogenetic signatures: genetic diversity, variation in phylogenetic tree branch lengths, and tree height. The conclusion that environmental transmission plays an important role in the evolutionary biology of avian influenza viruses-a manifestation of the "storage effect"-highlights the potentially unpredictable impact of wildlife reservoirs for future human pandemics and the need for improved understanding of the natural ecology of these viruses.

Local-scale diversity and between-year "frozen evolution" of avian influenza A viruses in nature

Influenza A virus (IAV) in wild bird reservoir hosts is characterized by the perpetuation in a plethora of subtype and genotype constellations. Multiyear monitoring studies carried out during the last two decades worldwide have provided a large body of knowledge regarding the ecology of IAV in wild birds. Nevertheless, other issues of avian IAV evolution have not been fully elucidated, such as the complexity and dynamics of genetic interactions between the co-circulating IAV genomes taking place at a local-scale level or the phenomenon of frozen evolution. We investigated the IAV diversity in a mallard population residing in a single pond in the Czech Republic. Despite the relative small number of samples collected, remarkable heterogeneity was revealed with four different IAV subtype combinations, H6N2, H6N9, H11N2, and H11N9, and six genomic constellations in co-circulation. Moreover, the H6, H11, and N2 segments belonged to two distinguishable sub-lineages. A reconstruction of the pattern of genetic reassortment revealed direct parent-progeny relationships between the H6N2, H11N9 and H6N9 viruses. Interestingly the IAV, with the H6N9 subtype, was re-detected a year later in a genetically unchanged form in the close proximity of the original sampling locality. The almost absolute nucleotide sequence identity of all the respective genomic segments between the two H6N9 viruses indicates frozen evolution as a result of prolonged conservation in the environment. The persistence of the H6N9 IAV in various abiotic and biotic environmental components was also discussed.

Co-infection and super-infection models in evolutionary epidemiology

Multiple infections are intensively studied because of their consequences for the health of the host but also because they can radically alter the selective pressures acting on parasites. I discuss how multiple infections have been modelled in evolutionary epidemiology. First, I briefly mention within-host models, which are at the root of these epidemiological models. Then, I present the super-infection framework, with an original focus on how the definition of the super-infection function can lead to evolutionary branching. There are several co-infection models and, for each of them, I briefly go through the underlying mathematics (especially the invasion fitness of a mutant strain) and I discuss the biological assumptions they make and the questions they consequently may ask. In particular, I show that a widely used co-infection model should not be invoked for invasion analyses because it confers a frequency-dependent advantage to rare neutral mutants. Finally, I present more recent frameworks, such as the Price equation framework in epidemiology, that can account for increased parasite diversity. To conclude, I discuss some perspectives for the study of multiple infections in evolutionary epidemiology.

Potential Intercontinental Movement of Influenza A(H7N9) Virus into North America by Wild Birds: Application of a Rapid Assessment Framework

A critical question surrounding emergence of novel strains of avian influenza viruses (AIV) is the ability for wild migratory birds to translocate a complete (unreassorted whole genome) AIV intercontinentally. Virus translocation via migratory birds is suspected in outbreaks of highly pathogenic strain A(H5N1) in Asia, Africa and Europe. As a result, the potential intercontinental translocation of newly emerging AIV such as A(H7N9) from Eurasia to North America via migratory movements of birds remains a concern. An estimated 2.91 million aquatic birds move annually between Eurasia and North America with an estimated AIV prevalence as high as 32.2%. Here, we present a rapid assessment to address the likelihood of whole (unreassorted)-genome translocation of Eurasian strain AIV into North America. The scope of this assessment was limited specifically to assess the weight of evidence to support the movement of an unreassorted AIV intercontinentally by migratory aquatic birds. We developed a rapid assessment framework to assess the potential for intercontinental movement of avian influenzas by aquatic birds. This framework was iteratively reviewed by a multidisciplinary panel of scientific experts until a consensus was established. Our assessment framework identified four factors that may contribute to the potential for introduction of any AIV intercontinentally into North America by wild aquatic birds. These factors, in aggregate, provide a framework for evaluating the likelihood of new forms of AIV from Eurasia to be introduced by aquatic birds into North America. Based on our assessment, we determined that the potential for introduction of A(H7N9) into North America through aquatic migratory birds is possible, but the likelihood ranges from extremely low to low.

Long-term variation in influenza A virus prevalence and subtype diversity in migratory mallards in northern Europe

Data on long-term circulation of pathogens in wildlife populations are seldom collected, and hence understanding of spatial-temporal variation in prevalence and genotypes is limited. Here, we analysed a long-term surveillance series on influenza A virus (IAV) in mallards collected at an important migratory stopover site from 2002 to 2010, and characterized seasonal dynamics in virus prevalence and subtype diversity. Prevalence dynamics were influenced by year, but retained a common pattern for all years whereby prevalence was low in spring and summer, but increased in early autumn with a first peak in August, and a second more pronounced peak during October-November. A total of 74 haemagglutinin (HA)/neuraminidase (NA) combinations were isolated, including all NA and most HA (H1-H12) subtypes. The most common subtype combinations were H4N6, H1N1, H2N3, H5N2, H6N2 and H11N9, and showed a clear linkage between specific HA and NA subtypes. Furthermore, there was a temporal structuring of subtypes within seasons based on HA phylogenetic relatedness. Dissimilar HA subtypes tended to have different temporal occurrence within seasons, where the subtypes that dominated in early autumn were rare in late autumn, and vice versa. This suggests that build-up of herd immunity affected IAV dynamics in this system.

Neutrality, cross-immunity and subtype dominance in avian influenza viruses

Avian influenza viruses (AIVs) are considered a threat for their potential to seed human influenza pandemics. Despite their acknowledged importance, there are significant unknowns regarding AIV transmission dynamics in their natural hosts, wild birds. Of particular interest is the difference in subtype dynamics between human and bird populations-in human populations, typically only two or three subtypes cocirculate, while avian populations are capable of simultaneously hosting a multitude of subtypes. One species in particular-ruddy turnstones (Arenaria interpres)--has been found to harbour a very wide range of AIV subtypes, which could make them a key player in the spread of new subtypes in wild bird populations. Very little is known about the mechanisms that drive subtype dynamics in this species, and here we address this gap in our knowledge. Taking advantage of two independent sources of data collected from ruddy turnstones in Delaware Bay, USA, we examine patterns of subtype diversity and dominance at this site. We compare these patterns to those produced by a stochastic, multi-strain transmission model to investigate possible mechanisms that are parsimonious with the observed subtype dynamics. We find, in agreement with earlier experimental work, that subtype differences are unnecessary to replicate the observed dynamics, and that neutrality alone is sufficient. We also evaluate the role of subtype cross-immunity and find that it is not necessary to generate patterns consistent with observations. This work offers new insights into the mechanisms behind subtype diversity and dominance in a species that has the potential to be a key player in AIV dynamics in wild bird populations.

Reassortment patterns of avian influenza virus internal segments among different subtypes

Background

The segmented RNA genome of avian Influenza viruses (AIV) allows genetic reassortment between co-infecting viruses, providing an evolutionary pathway to generate genetic innovation. The genetic diversity (16 haemagglutinin and 9 neuraminidase subtypes) of AIV indicates an extensive reservoir of influenza viruses exists in bird populations, but how frequently subtypes reassort with each other is still unknown. Here we quantify the reassortment patterns among subtypes in the Eurasian avian viral pool by reconstructing the ancestral states of the subtypes as discrete states on time-scaled phylogenies with respect to the internal protein coding segments. We further analyzed how host species, the inferred evolutionary rates and the d_N/d_S ratio varied among segments and between discrete subtypes, and whether these factors may be associated with inter-subtype reassortment rate.

Results

The general patterns of reassortment are similar among five internal segments with the exception of segment 8, encoding the Non-Structural genes, which has a more divergent phylogeny. However, significant variation in rates between subtypes was observed. In particular, hemagglutinin-encoding segments of subtypes H5 to H9 reassort at a lower rate compared to those of H1 to H4, and Neuraminidase-encoding segments of subtypes N1 and N2 reassort less frequently than N3 to N9. Both host species and d_N/d_S ratio were significantly associated with reassortment rate, while evolutionary rate was not associated. The d_N/d_S ratio was negatively correlated with reassortment rate, as was the number of negatively selected sites for all segments.

Conclusions

These results indicate that overall selective constraint and host species are both associated with reassortment rate. These results together identify the wild bird population as the major source of new reassortants, rather than domestic poultry. The lower reassortment rates observed for H5N1 and H9N2 may be explained by the large proportion of strains derived from domestic poultry populations. In contrast, the higher rates observed in the H1N1, H3N8 and H4N6 subtypes could be due to their primary origin as infections of wild birds with multiple low pathogenicity strains in the large avian reservoir.

Effects of genotypic and phenotypic variation on establishment are important for conservation, invasion, and infection biology

There is abundant evidence that the probability of successful establishment in novel environments increases with number of individuals in founder groups and with number of repeated introductions. Theory posits that the genotypic and phenotypic variation among individuals should also be important, but few studies have examined whether founder diversity influences establishment independent of propagule pressure, nor whether the effect is model or context dependent. I summarize the results of 18 experimental studies and report on a metaanalysis that provides strong evidence that higher levels of genotypic and phenotypic diversity in founder groups increase establishment success in plants and animals. The effect of diversity is stronger in experiments carried out under natural conditions in the wild than under seminatural or standardized laboratory conditions. The realization that genetic and phenotypic variation is key to successful establishment may improve the outcome of reintroduction and translocation programs used to vitalize or restore declining and extinct populations. Founder diversity may also improve the ability of invasive species to establish and subsequently spread in environments outside of their native community, and enhance the ability of pathogens and parasites to colonize and invade the environment constituted by their hosts. It is argued that exchange of ideas, methodological approaches, and insights of the role of diversity for establishment in different contexts may further our knowledge, vitalize future research, and improve management plans in different disciplines.

The avian and mammalian host range of highly pathogenic avian H5N1 influenza

Highly pathogenic H5N1 influenza viruses have been isolated from a number of avian and mammalian species. Despite intensive control measures the number of human and animal cases continues to increase. A more complete understanding of susceptible species and of contributing environmental and molecular factors is crucial if we are to slow the rate of new cases. H5N1 is currently endemic in domestic poultry in only a handful of countries with sporadic and unpredictable spread to other countries. Close contact of terrestrial bird or mammalian species with infected poultry/waterfowl or their biological products is the major route for interspecies transmission. Intra-species transmission of H5N1 in mammals, including humans, has taken place on a limited scale though it remains to be seen if this will change; recent laboratory studies suggest that it is indeed possible. Here we review the avian and mammalian species that are naturally susceptible to H5N1 infection and the molecular factors associated with its expanded host range.

Interspecies transmission and emergence of novel viruses: lessons from bats and birds

As exemplified by coronaviruses and influenza viruses, bats and birds are natural reservoirs for providing viral genes during evolution of new virus species and viruses for interspecies transmission. These warm-blooded vertebrates display high species biodiversity, roosting and migratory behavior, and a unique adaptive immune system, which are favorable characteristics for asymptomatic shedding, dissemination, and mixing of different viruses for the generation of novel mutant, recombinant, or reassortant RNA viruses. The increased intrusion of humans into wildlife habitats and overcrowding of different wildlife species in wet markets and farms have also facilitated the interspecies transmission between different animal species.