Sifting the evidence-what's wrong with significance tests?

Changes in injecting versus smoking heroin, fentanyl, and methamphetamine among people who inject drugs in San Diego, California, 2020-2023

BACKGROUND

Amidst an increasingly toxic drug supply in North America, people who inject drugs may be transitioning to smoking them. We aimed to assess changes in injecting and smoking opioids and methamphetamine among a cohort of people who inject drugs from San Diego, California.

METHODS

Over five six-month periods spanning October 2020-April 2023, we assessed prevalence of injecting and smoking opioids or methamphetamine and whether participants used these drugs more frequently by smoking than injecting. Multivariable Poisson regression via generalized estimating equations was used to examine time trends.

RESULTS

Of 362 participants, median age was 40 years; a minority were female (29%), Hispanic/Latinx/Mexican (45%), and housed (33%). Among this cohort, of whom 100% injected (and 84% injected and smoked) in period one (October 2020-April 2021), by period five (November 2022-April 2023), 34% only smoked, 59% injected and smoked, and 7% only injected. By period five, the adjusted relative risk (aRR) of injecting opioids was 0.41 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.33, 0.51) and the aRR for injecting methamphetamine was 0.50 (95% CI: 0.39, 0.63) compared to period one. Risks for smoking fentanyl rose significantly during period three (aRR=1.44, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.94), four (aRR=1.65, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.20) and five (aRR=1.90, 95% CI: 1.43, 2.53) compared to period one. Risks for smoking heroin and methamphetamine more frequently than injecting these drugs increased across all periods.

CONCLUSIONS

Opioid and methamphetamine injection declined precipitously, with notable increases in smoking these drugs. Research is needed to understand the health consequences of these trends.

Sinonasal cancer incidence in Lombardy, Italy, 2008-20

BACKGROUND

Epithelial sinonasal cancers (SNC) are rare tumours with recognized associations with known/suspected occupational carcinogens (wood/leather dust, nickel/chromium compounds and formaldehyde). In Italy, a national SNC registry organized as a network of regional registries was established by law in 2008.

AIMS

To describe SNC time trends, occupational exposures and geographical distribution in Lombardy, North-West Italy, based on population registry data (2008-20).

METHODS

The Lombardy SNC Registry records epithelial SNCs using various sources. Interviews to collect occupational history are performed using a standardized questionnaire. Using several standard populations, we calculated yearly crude and age-standardized rates (ASRs per 100,000 person-years). Standardized incidence ratios (SIR) at municipality level were calculated, and Bayesian models were fitted to produce smoothed SIR maps.

RESULTS

We recorded 827 cases (553 men, 274 women). Crude (world standardized) ASRs were 0.9 (0.4) in men and 0.4 (0.2) in women, with no time trends. Interviews were obtained for 485 (88%) men and 223 (81%) women. Among men, 217 (45%) had been exposed to occupational carcinogens (wood/leather dust: 150/65 cases, 31%/13%), while only 36 women (16%) were exposed. Among 201 men with adenocarcinoma, exposure to wood/leather dust occurred in 103/50 cases (75%/50%). Areas with elevated SIRs associated with leather dust were found in the Western areas. Exposure to wood dust was more widespread.

CONCLUSIONS

This study found a high frequency of occupational exposures (wood and leather dust), particularly in men with SNC. Employment in shoe industries clustered in the Western part, while work in furniture industries was less spatially structured.

Confirmation of COVID-19 infection status and reporting of Long COVID symptoms in a population-based birth cohort: No evidence of a nocebo effect

Some patients with COVID-19 develop symptoms after the acute infection, known as 'Long COVID'. We examined whether or not confirmation of COVID-19 infection status could act as a nocebo, using data from questionnaires distributed to the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children cohort. We examined associations between confirmation of COVID-19 infection status (confirmed by a positive test vs unconfirmed) and reporting of Long COVID symptoms. We explored the roles of sex and anxiety as potential moderators. There was no clear evidence of a strong association between confirmation of COVID-19 infection status and the Long COVID composite score, physical or psychological symptoms or duration of symptoms. There was no clear evidence of moderation by sex or anxiety. We therefore found no evidence of a nocebo effect. Our data suggest that this psychological mechanism does not play a role in the medical symptomatology experienced by patients with Long COVID.

Long-acting Injectable PrEP Interest and General PrEP Awareness among People who Inject Drugs in the San Diego-Tijuana Border Metroplex

Long-acting injectable HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (LAI-PrEP) could help overcome multilevel challenges to HIV prevention for people who inject drugs (PWID), including those in the binational San Diego-Tijuana metroplex. Yet, general PrEP awareness and interest in LAI-PrEP remain underexplored among PWID. From 2020 to 2021, 562 HIV-negative PWID in San Diego and Tijuana completed surveys assessing general PrEP awareness and interest in oral and LAI-PrEP. Modified Poisson regression examined factors associated with general PrEP awareness. Multinomial logistic regression assessed factors associated with interest in both oral and LAI-PrEP, oral PrEP only, LAI-PrEP only, or neither. General PrEP awareness was low (18%) and associated with experiencing unsheltered homelessness (adjusted prevalence ratio [APR] = 1.50, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.96-2.33), past 6-month fentanyl injection (APR = 1.53, 95% CI: 1.04-2.25), and transactional sex (APR = 1.71, 95% CI: 1.06-2.76). Interest in oral PrEP only was most common (44%), followed by LAI-PrEP only (25%) and neither (16%). Compared to the odds of being interested in LAI-PrEP only, the odds of being interested in oral PrEP only were lower among those who were stopped by police (AOR = 0.38, 95% CI: 0.22-0.65), reported past 6-month fentanyl injection (AOR = 0.33, 95% CI: 0.20-0.56), polydrug use (AOR = 0.48, 95% CI: 0.27-0.86), injecting multiple times daily (AOR = 0.26, 95% CI: 0.14-0.46), receptive syringe use (AOR = 0.30, 95% CI: 0.19-0.49), and higher perceived HIV risk (AOR = 0.24, 95% CI: 0.15-0.39). Interest in LAI-PrEP was more common among PWID reporting social and structural factors that could interfere with oral PrEP adherence, suggesting LAI-PrEP implementation could increase PrEP coverage among those most vulnerable to HIV.

Influence of age and sex on longitudinal metabolic profiles and body weight trajectories in the UK Biobank

BACKGROUND

Accurate characterization of how age influences body weight and metabolism at different stages of life is important for understanding ageing processes. Here, we explore observational longitudinal associations between metabolic health and weight from the fifth to the seventh decade of life, using carefully adjusted statistical designs.

METHODS

Body measures and biochemical data from blood and urine (220 measures) across two visits were available from 10 104 UK Biobank participants. Participants were divided into stable (within ±4% per decade), weight loss and weight gain categories. Final subgroups were metabolically matched at baseline (48% women, follow-up 4.3 years, ages 41-70; n = 3368 per subgroup) and further stratified by the median age of 59.3 years and sex.

RESULTS

Pulse pressure, haemoglobin A1c and cystatin-C tracked ageing consistently (P < 0.0001). In women under 59, age-associated increases in citrate, pyruvate, alkaline phosphatase and calcium were observed along with adverse changes across lipoprotein measures, fatty acid species and liver enzymes (P < 0.0001). Principal component analysis revealed a qualitative sex difference in the temporal relationship between body weight and metabolism: weight loss was not associated with systemic metabolic improvement in women, whereas both age strata converged consistently towards beneficial (weight loss) or adverse (weight gain) phenotypes in men.

CONCLUSIONS

We report longitudinal ageing trends for 220 metabolic measures in absolute concentrations, many of which have not been described for older individuals before. Our results also revealed a fundamental dynamic sex divergence that we speculate is caused by menopause-driven metabolic deterioration in women.

Potential mental health-related harms associated with the universal screening of anxiety and depressive symptoms in Australian secondary schools

BACKGROUND

Anxiety and depressive disorders typically emerge in adolescence and can be chronic and disabling if not identified and treated early. School-based universal mental health screening may identify young people in need of mental health support and facilitate access to treatment. However, few studies have assessed the potential harms of this approach. This paper examines some of the potential mental health-related harms associated with the universal screening of anxiety and depression administered in Australian secondary schools.

METHODS

A total of 1802 adolescent students from 22 secondary schools in New South Wales, Australia, were cluster randomised (at the school level) to receive either an intensive screening procedure (intervention) or a light touch screening procedure (control). Participants in the intensive screening condition received supervised self-report web-based screening questionnaires for anxiety, depression and suicidality with the follow-up care matched to their symptom severity. Participants in the light touch condition received unsupervised web-based screening for anxiety and depression only, followed by generalised advice on help-seeking. No other care was provided in this condition. Study outcomes included the increased risk of anxiety, depression, psychological distress, decreased risk of help-seeking, increased risk of mental health stigma, determined from measures assessed at baseline, 6 weeks post-baseline, and 12 weeks post-baseline. Differences between groups were analysed using mixed effect models.

RESULTS

Participants in the intensive screening group were not adversely affected when compared to the light touch screening condition across a range of potential harms. Rather, participants in the intensive screening group were found to have a decreased risk of inhibited help-seeking behaviour compared to the light touch screening condition.

CONCLUSIONS

The intensive screening procedure did not appear to adversely impact adolescents' mental health relative to the light touch procedure. Future studies should examine other school-based approaches that may be more effective and efficient than universal screening for reducing mental health burden among students. Trial registration Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ACTRN12618001539224) https://anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=375821 .

Mental illness and cardiovascular health: observational and polygenic score analyses in a population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Individuals with serious mental illness have a markedly shorter life expectancy. A major contributor to premature death is cardiovascular disease (CVD). We investigated associations of (genetic liability for) depressive disorder, bipolar disorder and schizophrenia with a range of CVD traits and examined to what degree these were driven by important confounders.

METHODS

We included participants of the Dutch Lifelines cohort (N = 147 337) with information on self-reported lifetime diagnosis of depressive disorder, bipolar disorder, or schizophrenia and CVD traits. Employing linear mixed-effects models, we examined associations between mental illness diagnoses and CVD, correcting for psychotropic medication, demographic and lifestyle factors. In a subsample (N = 73 965), we repeated these analyses using polygenic scores (PGSs) for the three mental illnesses.

RESULTS

There was strong evidence that depressive disorder diagnosis is associated with increased arrhythmia and atherosclerosis risk and lower heart rate variability, even after confounder adjustment. Positive associations were also found for the depression PGSs with arrhythmia and atherosclerosis. Bipolar disorder was associated with a higher risk of nearly all CVD traits, though most diminished after adjustment. The bipolar disorder PGSs did not show any associations. While the schizophrenia PGSs was associated with increased arrhythmia risk and lower heart rate variability, schizophrenia diagnosis was not. All mental illness diagnoses were associated with lower blood pressure and a lower risk of hypertension.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study shows widespread associations of (genetic liability to) mental illness (primarily depressive disorder) with CVD, even after confounder adjustment. Future research should focus on clarifying potential causal pathways between mental illness and CVD.

The fragility index: how robust are the outcomes of head and neck cancer randomised, controlled trials?

BACKGROUND

The fragility index represents the minimum number of patients required to convert an outcome from statistically significant to insignificant. This report assesses the fragility index of head and neck cancer randomised, controlled trials.

METHODS

Studies were extracted from PubMed/Medline, Scopus, Embase and Cochrane databases.

RESULTS

Overall, 123 randomised, controlled trials were included. The sample size and fragility index medians (interquartile ranges) were 103 (56-213) and 2 (0-5), respectively. The fragility index exceeded the number of patients lost to follow up in 42.3 per cent (n = 52) of studies. A higher fragility index correlated with higher sample size (r = 0.514, p < 0.001), number of events (r = 0.449, p < 0.001) and statistical significance via p-value (r = -0.367, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Head and neck cancer randomised, controlled trials demonstrated low fragility index values, in which statistically significant results could be nullified by altering the outcomes of just two patients, on average. Future head and neck oncology randomised, controlled trials should report the fragility index in order to provide insight into statistical robustness.

Pneumococcal conjugate vaccination schedules in infants-acquisition, immunogenicity, and pneumococcal conjugate and yellow fever vaccine co-administration study: statistical analysis plan

RATIONALE

The effectiveness of immunisation with pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) has been demonstrated in many countries. However, the global impact of PCV is limited by its cost, which has prevented its introduction in some countries. Reducing the cost of PCV programmes will facilitate further vaccine introductions and improve the sustainability of PCV in low-income countries when they transition from subsidised vaccine supply. We are conducting a large, population-level, cluster-randomised field trial (PVS) of an alternative reduced-dose schedule of PCV compared to the standard schedule. We are also conducting a nested sub-study at the individual level to investigate the immunogenicity of the two schedules and their effects on pneumococcal carriage acquisition (PVS-AcqImm).

METHODS AND DESIGN

PVS-AcqImm is a prospective, cluster-randomised trial of an alternative schedule of one dose of PCV scheduled at age 6 weeks with a booster dose at age 9 months compared to the standard of three primary doses scheduled at 6, 10, and 14 weeks of age. Sub-groups within the alternative schedule group receive yellow fever vaccine separately or co-administered with PCV at 9 months of age. The primary endpoints are (a) concentrations of vaccine-type anti-pneumococcal IgG at 18 months of age, (b) proportions with yellow fever neutralising antibody titre ≥ 1:8 4 weeks after separate or co-administration of PCV and yellow fever vaccines, and (c) rate of nasopharyngeal vaccine-type pneumococcal acquisition from 10-14 months of age. Participants and field staff are not masked to group allocation while measurement of the laboratory endpoints is masked. Approximately equal numbers of participants are resident in each of 28 randomly allocated geographic clusters (14 clusters in each group); 784 enrolled for acquisition measurements and 336 for immunogenicity measurements.

PURPOSE

This statistical analysis plan (SAP) describes the PVS-AcqImm cohort and follow-up criteria to be used in different analyses. The SAP defines the endpoints and describes how adherence to the interventions will be presented. We describe the approach to analyses and how we will account for the effect of clustering. Defining the SAP prior to the conduct of analysis will avoid bias in analyses that may arise from prior knowledge of trial findings.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ISRCTN, ISRCTN7282161328. Registered on 28 November 2019. https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN72821613 .

PROTOCOL

MRCG SCC number 1670, LSHTM Ref 17683. Current protocol version: 6.0, 24 May 2021. Version: 1.0 (5 April 2023); SAP revisions-none.

Evaluation of a hospital-initiated tobacco dependence treatment service: uptake, smoking cessation, readmission and mortality

BACKGROUND

The National Health Service in England aims to implement tobacco dependency treatment services in all hospitals by 2024. We aimed to assess the uptake of a new service, adapted from the Ottawa Model of Smoking Cessation, and its impact on 6-month quit rates and readmission or death at 1-year follow-up.

METHODS

We conducted a pragmatic service evaluation of a tobacco dependency service implemented among 2067 patients who smoked who were admitted to 2 acute hospitals in London, England, over a 12-month period from July 2020. The intervention consisted of the systematic identification of smoking status, automatic referral to tobacco dependence specialists, provision of pharmacotherapy and behavioural support throughout the hospital stay, and telephone support for 6 months after discharge. The outcomes were (i) patient acceptance of the intervention during admission, (ii) quit success at 6 months after discharge, (iii) death, or (iv) readmission up to 1 year following discharge. Multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the impact of a range of clinical and demographic variables on these outcomes.

RESULTS

The majority (79.4%) of patients accepted support at the first assessment. Six months after discharge, 35.1% of successfully contacted patients reported having quit smoking. After adjustment, odds of accepting support were 51-61% higher among patients of all non-White ethnicity groups, relative to White patients, but patients of Mixed, Asian, or Other ethnicities had decreased odds of quit success (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 0.32, 95%CI = 0.15-0.66). Decreased odds of accepting support were associated with a diagnosis of cardiovascular disease or diabetes; however, diabetes was associated with increased odds of quit success (AOR = 1.88, 95%CI = 1.17-3.04). Intention to make a quit attempt was associated with a threefold increase in odds of quit success, and 60% lower odds of death, compared to patients who did not intend to quit. A mental health diagnosis was associated with an 84% increase in the odds of dying within 12 months.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall quit rates were similar to results from Ottawa models implemented elsewhere, although outcomes varied by site. Outcomes also varied according to patient demographics and diagnoses, suggesting personalised and culturally tailored interventions may be needed to optimise quit success.

Environmental Risk Factors, Protective Factors, and Biomarkers for Hearing Loss: An Umbrella Review

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to investigate the potential environmental risk factors, protective factors, and biomarkers of hearing loss (HL), and establish a hierarchy of evidence.

DATA SOURCES

Embase, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science electronic database from inception to June 1, 2023.

REVIEW METHODS

We included meta-analyses of observational studies of associations between HL and environmental risk factors, protective factors, or biomarkers. We calculated summary effect estimates, 95% confidence interval, heterogeneity I2 statistic, 95% prediction interval, small study effects, and excess significance biases.

RESULTS

Of the 9211 articles retrieved, 60 eligible articles were included. The 60 eligible articles identified 47 potential environmental risk and protective factors (N = 4,123,803) and 46 potential biomarkers (N = 173,701). Evidence of association was convincing (class I) for rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and every 1 cm increase in height. Evidence of association was highly suggestive (class II) for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), diabetes, cumulative noise exposure (CNE), smoking, congenital cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection, combined exposure to organic solvents and noise, non-Gaussian noise exposure, each 1 kg increase in birth weight, noise exposure, and alopecia areata (AA).

CONCLUSION

In this umbrella review, RA, every 1 cm increase in height, HIV, diabetes, CNE, smoking, congenital CMV infection, combined exposure to organic solvents and noise, non-Gaussian noise exposure, each 1 kg increase in birth weight, noise exposure, and AA were strongly associated with HL.

Clinically Relevant Herb-Drug Interactions: A 30-Year Historical Assessment

The Dietary Supplement Health and Education Act, a legislative measure ushering in a novel class of complementary healthcare products known as dietary supplements, will mark its 30th anniversary in October 2024. Over this 30-year period, dietary supplement usage evolved from a few hundred products made up mostly of vitamins, minerals, and select botanical extracts to more than 75,000 single- and multi-ingredient products that are now regular staples in the American healthcare system and used by half of all U.S. consumers. One of the fastest-growing segments of the dietary supplement market during this 3-decade interval has been those products formulated with botanical extracts. Coincident with the growing popularity of botanical dietary supplements (BDS) has been their concomitant ingestion with conventional prescription medications. BDS are complex mixtures of phytochemicals oftentimes exhibiting complex pharmacology. Formulated as concentrated phytochemical extracts, BDS are vehicles for a host of plant secondary metabolites rarely encountered in the typical diet. When taken with prescription drugs, BDS may give rise to clinically significant herb-drug interactions (HDI). Pharmacodynamic HDI describe interactions between phytochemicals and conventional medications at the drug receptor level, while pharmacokinetic HDI stem from phytochemical-mediated induction and/or inhibition of human drug metabolizing enzymes and/or transporters. This review summarizes BDS identified over the last 30 years that pose clinically relevant HDI and whose mechanisms are either pharmacodynamically or pharmacokinetically mediated.

Causal relationship between telomere length and sepsis: a bidirectional Mendelian randomization study

Numerous observational studies have elucidated a connection between leukocyte telomere length (LTL) and sepsis, yet its fundamental cause remains enigmatic. Thus, the current study's objective is to employ a bidirectional Mendelian randomization (MR) approach to scrutinize the causality between LTL and sepsis. We selected single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with LTL (n = 472,174) and sepsis from a genome-wide association study (GWAS), including Sepsis (n = 486,484, ncase = 11,643), Sepsis (28 day death in critical care) (n = 431,365, ncase = 347), Sepsis (under 75) (n = 462,869, ncase = 11,568), Sepsis (28 day death) (n = 486,484, ncase = 1896), and Sepsis (critical care) (n = 431,365, ncase = 1380), as instrumental variables (IVs). The inverse variance weighted (IVW) MR method was employed as the primary approach, and various sensitivity analyses were conducted to assess the validity of this instrument and potential pleiotropy. Using the IVW method, we uncovered a potential causal relationship between genetically predicted LTL reduction and increased susceptibility to sepsis, with an odds ratio (OR) of 1.161 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.039-1.297, p = 0.008]. However, reverse MR analysis did not indicate any impact of sepsis on LTL. Our forward MR study highlights a potential causal relationship between LTL as an exposure and increased susceptibility to sepsis. Specifically, our findings suggest that individuals with genetically determined shorter LTL may be at an increased risk of developing sepsis. This may contribute to the development of novel diagnostic and therapeutic strategies for the prevention, diagnosis, and treatment of sepsis.

Changes in injecting versus smoking heroin, fentanyl, and methamphetamine among people who inject drugs in San Diego, California, 2020 to 2023

Background

Amidst a rapidly evolving drug supply in North America, people who inject drugs may be transitioning to smoking them. We aimed to assess changes in injecting and smoking heroin, fentanyl and methamphetamine among a cohort of people who injected drugs at baseline from San Diego, California.

Methods

Over five six-month periods spanning October 2020-April 2023, we assessed prevalence of injecting and smoking opioids or methamphetamine and whether participants used these drugs more frequently by smoking than injecting. Multivariable Poisson regression via Generalized Estimating Equations was used to examine time trends.

Results

Of 362 participants, median age was 40 years; most were male (72%), non-Hispanic (55%), and unhoused (67%). Among this cohort, of whom 100% injected (or injected and smoked) at baseline, by period five (two years later), 34% reported only smoking, while 59% injected and smoked, and 7% only injected. By period five, the adjusted relative risk (aRR) of injecting opioids was 0.41 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.33, 0.51) compared to period one, and the aRR for injecting methamphetamine was 0.50 (95% CI: 0.39, 0.63). Compared to period one, risks for smoking fentanyl rose significantly during period three (aRR=1.44, 95% CI: 1.06, 1.94), four (aRR=1.65, 95% CI: 1.24, 2.20) and five (aRR=1.90, 95% CI: 1.43, 2.53). Risks for smoking heroin and methamphetamine more frequently than injecting these drugs increased across all periods.

Conclusions

Opioid and methamphetamine injection declined precipitously, with notable increases in smoking these drugs. Research is urgently needed to understand the health consequences of these trends.

Barriers and enablers to blood culture sampling in Indonesia, Thailand and Viet Nam: a Theoretical Domains Framework-based survey

OBJECTIVE

Blood culture (BC) sampling is recommended for all suspected sepsis patients prior to antibiotic administration. We examine barriers and enablers to BC sampling in three Southeast Asian countries.

DESIGN

A Theoretical Domains Framework (TDF)-based survey, comprising a case scenario of a patient presenting with community-acquired sepsis and all 14 TDF domains of barriers/enablers to BC sampling.

SETTING

Hospitals in Indonesia, Thailand and Viet Nam, December 2021 to 30 April 2022.

PARTICIPANTS

1070 medical doctors and 238 final-year medical students were participated in this study. Half of the respondents were women (n=680, 52%) and most worked in governmental hospitals (n=980, 75.4%).

OUTCOME MEASURES

Barriers and enablers to BC sampling.

RESULTS

The proportion of respondents who answered that they would definitely take BC in the case scenario was highest at 89.8% (273/304) in Thailand, followed by 50.5% (252/499) in Viet Nam and 31.3% (157/501) in Indonesia (p<0.001). Barriers/enablers in nine TDF domains were considered key in influencing BC sampling, including 'priority of BC (TDF-goals)', 'perception about their role to order or initiate an order for BC (TDF-social professional role and identity)', 'perception that BC is helpful (TDF-beliefs about consequences)', 'intention to follow guidelines (TDF-intention)', 'awareness of guidelines (TDF-knowledge)', 'norms of BC sampling (TDF-social influence)', 'consequences that discourage BC sampling (TDF-reinforcement)', 'perceived cost-effectiveness of BC (TDF-environmental context and resources)' and 'regulation on cost reimbursement (TDF-behavioural regulation)'. There was substantial heterogeneity between the countries. In most domains, the lower (higher) proportion of Thai respondents experienced the barriers (enablers) compared with that of Indonesian and Vietnamese respondents. A range of suggested intervention types and policy options was identified.

CONCLUSIONS

Barriers and enablers to BC sampling are varied and heterogenous. Cost-related barriers are more common in more resource-limited countries, while many barriers are not directly related to cost. Context-specific multifaceted interventions at both hospital and policy levels are required to improve diagnostic stewardship practices.

The effectiveness of different types of acupuncture to reduce symptoms and disability for patients with orofacial pain. A systematic review and meta-analysis

PURPOSE

To determine the effectiveness of different types of acupuncture in reducing pain, improving maximum mouth opening and jaw functions in adults with orofacial pain.

METHODS

Six databases were searched until 15 June 2023. The Cochrane risk of bias tool and GRADE were employed to evaluate bias and overall evidence certainty.

RESULTS

Among 52 studies, 86.5% (n = 45) exhibited high risk of bias. Common acupoints, including Hegu LI 4, Jiache ST 6, and Xiaguan ST 7, were used primarily for patients with temporomandibular disorder [TMDs]. Meta-analyses indicated that acupuncture significantly reduced pain intensity in individuals with myogenous TMD (MD = 26.02 mm, I2=89%, p = 0.05), reduced tenderness in the medial pterygoid muscle (standardised mean differences [SMD] = 1.72, I2 = 0%, p < 0.00001) and jaw dysfunction (SMD = 1.62, I2 = 88%, p = 0.010) in mixed TMD when compared to sham/no treatment. However, the overall certainty of the evidence was very low for all outcomes as evaluated by GRADE.

CONCLUSION

The overall results in this review should be interpreted with caution as there was a high risk of bias across the majority of randomized controlled trial (RCTs), and the overall certainty of the evidence was very low. Therefore, future studies with high-quality RCTs are warranted evaluating the use of acupuncture in patients with orofacial pain.

Additional effects of therapeutic exercise and education on manual therapy for chronic temporomandibular disorders treatment: a randomized clinical trial

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have evaluated the implementation of behavioral approaches in individuals with chronic temporomandibular disorders (TMDs).

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the benefits of a behavioral approach to craniofacial pain. Second, we assessed the benefits of kinesiophobia, catastrophizing, mouth opening without pain, and forward head posture.

METHODS

Individuals with chronic TMDs were treated for five weeks. The intervention group (n = 17) underwent pain neuroscience education, manual therapy, and therapeutic exercise, whereas the control group (n = 17) underwent manual therapy only. Outcomes were evaluated immediately, at seven and 19 weeks follow-up. The assessment tools used were the Craniofacial Pain Disability Inventory, Pain Catastrophizing Scale, Tampa Scale for Kinesiophobia, Mandibular Range of Motion Scale, and Cervical Range of Motion Tool.

RESULTS

The interventions did not influence the differences in the improvements between the groups observed for craniofacial pain disability (inter-subject p 0.4). The intervention had a moderate influence on the improvement of kinesiophobia and catastrophizing (Inter-subject p 0.09 and 0.1 respectively) with a clinically significant effect size (Estimated mean (EM) -8.6 standard deviation (SD) ±3.48 p 0.019; and EM -7.6 SD ± 5.11 p 0.15 respectively).

CONCLUSION

The behavioral approach improved catastrophizing and kinesiophobia outcomes in individuals with chronic TMDs.

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy and midlife maternal cognition in a prospective cohort study

Hypertensive disorders of pregnancy (HDP) are associated with an increased risk of cardiovascular disorders, with recent evidence linking pre-eclampsia with vascular dementia. We examined associations of HDP with cognitive performance measured in midlife, in a prospective cohort study, the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Six cognitive function domains were measured 20 years after pregnancy at a mean age of 51 years. The cognition tests were repeated at clinics in the following two years. Cognitive function domains measured were immediate and delayed verbal episodic memory, working memory, processing speed, verbal intelligence, and verbal fluency. Exposures were pre-eclampsia, gestational hypertension (GH), and a combined category of any HDP, all compared to normotensive pregnancy. Of 3393 pregnancies included in the analysis, GH was experienced by 417 (12.3%) and pre-eclampsia by 57 (1.7%). GH was associated with lower verbal episodic memory, in the delayed logic memory test (-0.16 SDs; 95% CI -0.30, -0.03; p = .015) and there was weak evidence of an association with the immediate logic memory test (-0.13 SDs; -0.27, 0.001; p = .058). However, we did not see steeper declines by age for women with GH and there was no evidence of associations with other cognitive domains or for pre-eclampsia with any domains. Results were not substantially changed after controlling for midlife blood pressure. Our findings suggest that a history of GH is associated with slightly reduced episodic memory 20 years after pregnancy, but we found no evidence of a quicker age-related decline compared to women with normotensive pregnancies.

Mediators of Black-White inequities in cardiovascular mortality among survivors of 18 cancers in the USA

BACKGROUND

This study aims to quantify Black-White inequities in cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality among US survivors of 18 adult-onset cancers and the extent to which these inequities are explained by differences in socio-economic and clinical factors.

METHODS

Survivors of cancers diagnosed at ages 20-64 years during 2007-16 were identified from 17 Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results registries. Associations between race and CVD mortality were examined using proportional hazards models. Mediation analyses were performed to quantify the contributions of potential mediators, including socio-economic [health insurance, neighbourhood socio-economic status (nSES), rurality] and clinical (stage, surgery, chemotherapy, radiotherapy) factors.

RESULTS

Among 904 995 survivors, 10 701 CVD deaths occurred (median follow-up, 43 months). Black survivors were more likely than White survivors to die from CVD for all 18 cancers with hazard ratios ranging from 1.30 (95% CI = 1.15-1.47) for lung cancer to 4.04 for brain cancer (95% CI = 2.79-5.83). The total percentage mediations (indirect effects) ranged from 24.8% for brain (95% CI=-5.2-59.6%) to 99.8% for lung (95% CI = 61.0-167%) cancers. Neighbourhood SES was identified as the strongest mediator for 14 cancers with percentage mediations varying from 25.0% for kidney cancer (95% CI = 14.1-36.3%) to 63.5% for lung cancer (95% CI = 36.5-108.7%). Insurance ranked second for 12 cancers with percentage mediations ranging from 12.3% for leukaemia (95% CI = 0.7-46.7%) to 31.3% for thyroid cancer (95% CI = 10.4-82.7%).

CONCLUSIONS

Insurance and nSES explained substantial proportions of the excess CVD mortality among Black survivors. Mitigating the effects of unequal access to care and differing opportunities for healthy living among neighbourhoods could substantially reduce racial inequities in CVD mortality among cancer survivors.

Minimal clinically important difference (MCID), substantial clinical benefit (SCB), and patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS) in patients who have undergone total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

The present systematic review investigated the minimal clinically important difference (MCID), substantial clinical benefit (SCB), and patient-acceptable symptom state (PASS) of several frequent and established PROMs used to assess patients who have undergone TKA. This study was conducted according to the 2020 PRISMA statement.

METHODS

In September 2023, PubMed, Web of Science, and Embase were accessed with no time constraint All clinical studies investigating tools to assess the clinical relevance of PROMs used to evaluate patients having received TKA were accessed. Only studies which evaluated the MCID, PASS, or SCB were eligible. The PROMs of interest were the Forgotten Joint Score-12 (FJS-12), the Oxford Knee Score (OKS), the Knee Injury and Osteoarthritis Outcome Score (KOOS) and its related subscales activity of daily living (ADL), pain, quality of life (QoL), sports and recreational activities, and symptoms, the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis (WOMAC) score, the Knee Society Score (KSS) and related function score, and the Short Form-12 (SF-12) and Short Form-36 (SF-36).

RESULTS

Data from 29,737 patients were collected. The overall risk of bias was low to moderate. The great variability of thresholds for MCID, SCB and PASS between questionnaires but also between investigated aspects was noted, whereby MCIDs for the SF-36 appear lower than for knee-specific questionnaires.

CONCLUSION

Despite its critical role from a patient's perspective, the dimension of SCB is still neglected in the literature. Moreover, thresholds for the different concepts need to be condition-specific. We encourage authors to specifically report such data in future studies and to adhere to previously reported definitions to allow future comparison. Level of evidence Level IV, systematic review and meta-analysis.

Association of blood pressure and heart rate with carotid markers of vascular remodeling in the young: a case for early prevention

OBJECTIVE

The association of childhood blood pressure (BP) and heart rate (HR) with intermediate markers of cardiovascular disease several decades later has been shown, but studies on more short-term outcomes are scarce. Using population-based data, this study investigates the association of four BP parameters and HR in childhood with three carotid markers for vascular remodeling one decade later.

METHODS

At the 11-year follow-up, 4607 participants of the nationwide KiGGS cohort aged 14 to 28 years had semi-automated sonographic carotid intima media thickness (CIMT) measurements. We investigated associations of baseline (age 3-17 years) and follow-up SBP, DBP, mean arterial pressure (MAP), pulse pressure (PP) and resting heart rate (RHR), with CIMT and lumen diameter at or above the 90th percentile and distensibility coefficient at or below the tenth percentile in logistic regressions. Analyses were further adjusted using a composite cardiovascular risk (CVR) score of BMI, triglycerides, total/HDL-cholesterol-ratio and HbA1c.

RESULTS

SBP, DBP, MAP and RHR were significantly and similarly associated with all carotid measures 11 years later, for example an odds ratio (OR) of 1.17 [confidence interval (CI) 1.06-1.29] for one standard deviation SBP increase with elevated CIMT when adjusting for sex, age and CVR score. Cross-sectionally, the strongest association was found for MAP with reduced distensibility coefficient (OR 1.76; CI 1.59-1.94).

CONCLUSION

This population-based cohort study shows robust and consistent associations between childhood BP and RHR and three carotid measures of vascular remodeling only one decade later, clearly underscoring the potential importance of preventing high BP already early in the life course.

The Fragility of Landmark Randomized Controlled Trials in the Plastic Surgery Literature

Background

Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are integral to the progress of evidenced-based medicine and help guide changes in the standards of care. Although results are traditionally evaluated according to their corresponding P value, the universal utility of this statistical metric has been called into question. The fragility index (FI) has been developed as an adjunct method to provide additional statistical perspective. In this study, we aimed to determine the fragility of 25 highly cited RCTs in the plastic surgery literature.

Methods

A PubMed search was used to identify the 25 highest cited RCTs with statistically significant dichotomous outcomes across 24 plastic surgery journals. Article characteristics were extracted, and the FI of each article was calculated. Additionally, Altmetric scores were determined for each study to determine article attention across internet platforms.

Results

The median FI score across included studies was 4 (2-7.5, interquartile range). The two highest FI scores were 208 and 58, respectively. Four studies (16%) had scores of 0 or 1. Three studies (12%) had scores of 2. All other studies (72%) had FI scores of 3 or higher. The median Altmetric score was 0 (0-3).

Conclusion

The FI can provide additional perspective on the robustness of study results, but like the P value, it should be interpreted in the greater context of other study elements.

Efficacy and safety of hepatitis B vaccine: an umbrella review of meta-analyses

BACKGROUND

There is a lack of synthesis of literature to determine hepatitis B vaccine (HepB) strategies for hepatitis B virus (HBV) supported by quality evidence. We aimed to explore the efficacy and safety of HepB strategies among people with different characteristics.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

PubMed, Cochrane Library, Embase, and Web of Science were searched for meta-analyses comparing the efficacy and safety of HepB up to July 2023.

RESULTS

Twenty-one meta-analyses comparing 83 associations were included, with 16 high quality, 4 moderate, and 1 low quality assessed by AMSTAR 2. Highly suggestive evidence supports HepB booster and HepB with 1018 adjuvant (HBsAg-1018) for improved seroprotection, and targeted and universal HepB vaccination reduced HBV infection Suggestive evidence indicated that targeted vaccination decreased the rate of hepatitis B surface antibody positivity and booster doses increased seroprotection in people aged 10-20. Weak evidence suggests potential local/systemic reaction risk with nucleotide analogs or HBsAg-1018. Convincing evidence shows HLA-DPB1*04:01 and DPB1*04:02 increased, while DPB1*05:01 decreased, hepatitis B antibody response. Obesity may reduce HepB seroprotection, as highly suggested.

CONCLUSION

Targeted vaccination could effectively reduce HBV infection, and adjuvant and booster vaccinations enhance seroprotection without significant reaction. Factors such as obesity and genetic polymorphisms may affect the efficacy.

Care intervention on psychological outcomes among patients admitted to intensive care unit: an umbrella review of systematic reviews and meta-analyses

BACKGROUND

Numerous studies have explored care interventions to improve the psychological outcome of intensive care unit (ICU) patients, but inconclusive evidence makes it difficult for decision-makers, managers, and clinicians to get familiar with all available literature and find appropriate interventions. This umbrella review aimed to analyze the relationship between care intervention and psychological outcomes of ICU patients based on existing systematic reviews.

METHODS

An umbrella review of evidence across systematic reviews and meta-analyses published between 1987 and 2023 was undertaken. We systematically searched reviews that examined the association between care intervention and the improvement of adverse psychological outcomes in ICU patients using PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, and manual reference screening. The measurement tool (AMSTAR 2) was applied to evaluate the methodological quality of included studies. The excess significance bias, between-study heterogeneity expressed by I2, small-study effect, and evidence class were estimated.

RESULTS

A total of 5110 articles were initially identified from the search databases and nine of them were included in the analysis. By applying standardized criteria, only weak evidence was observed in 13 associations, even though most included reviews were of moderate to high methodological quality. These associations pertained to eight interventions (music therapy, early rehabilitation, post-ICU follow-up, ICU diary, information intervention, preoperative education, communication and psychological support, surrogate decision-making) and five psychological outcomes (post-intensive care syndrome, transfer anxiety, post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety, and depression). Weak or null association was shown among the rest of the associations (e.g., weak association between music therapy and maternal anxiety or stress level).

CONCLUSIONS

The evidence of these eight supporting interventions to improve the adverse psychological outcomes of ICU patients and caregivers was weak. Data from more and better-designed studies with larger sample sizes are needed to establish robust evidence.

Risk factors for preterm birth: an umbrella review of meta-analyses of observational studies

BACKGROUND

Preterm birth defined as delivery before 37 gestational weeks is a leading cause of neonatal and infant morbidity and mortality. The aim of this study is to summarize the evidence from meta-analyses of observational studies on risk factors associated with PTB, evaluate whether there are indications of biases in this literature, and identify which of the previously reported associations are supported by robust evidence.

METHODS

We searched PubMed and Scopus until February 2021, in order to identify meta-analyses examining associations between risk factors and PTB. For each meta-analysis, we estimated the summary effect size, the 95% confidence interval, the 95% prediction interval, the between-study heterogeneity, evidence of small-study effects, and evidence of excess-significance bias. Evidence was graded as robust, highly suggestive, suggestive, and weak.

RESULTS

Eighty-five eligible meta-analyses were identified, which included 1480 primary studies providing data on 166 associations, covering a wide range of comorbid diseases, obstetric and medical history, drugs, exposure to environmental agents, infections, and vaccines. Ninety-nine (59.3%) associations were significant at P < 0.05, while 41 (24.7%) were significant at P < 10-6. Ninety-one (54.8%) associations had large or very large heterogeneity. Evidence for small-study effects and excess significance bias was found in 37 (22.3%) and 12 (7.2%) associations, respectively. We evaluated all associations according to prespecified criteria. Seven risk factors provided robust evidence: amphetamine exposure, isolated single umbilical artery, maternal personality disorder, sleep-disordered breathing (SDB), prior induced termination of pregnancy with vacuum aspiration (I-TOP with VA), low gestational weight gain (GWG), and interpregnancy interval (IPI) following miscarriage < 6 months.

CONCLUSIONS

The results from the synthesis of observational studies suggest that seven risk factors for PTB are supported by robust evidence. Routine screening for sleep quality and mental health is currently lacking from prenatal visits and should be introduced. This assessment can promote the development and training of prediction models using robust risk factors that could improve risk stratification and guide cost-effective preventive strategies.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO 2021 CRD42021227296.

The statistical fragility of outcomes in calcaneus fractures: A systematic review of randomized controlled trials

INTRODUCTION

The purpose of this study was to utilize the fragility index to assess the robustness of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) evaluating the management of calcaneus fractures. We hypothesize that the dichotomous outcomes in calcaneus fracture literature will be statistically fragile and comparable to other orthopedic specialties.

METHODS

We performed a PubMed search for calcaneus fracture RCTs from 2000 to 2022 using the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA). The fragility index (FI) of each outcome was calculated through the reversal of a single outcome event until significance was reversed. The fragility quotient (FQ) was calculated by dividing each fragility index by study sample size. The interquartile range (IQR) was also calculated for the FI and FQ.

RESULTS

Of the 3003 studies screened, 97 met the search criteria, with 19 RCTs evaluating calcaneus fractures included in the analysis. Seventy-nine dichotomous outcomes with 30 significant (P < 0.05) outcomes and 49 with nonsignificant (P> 0.05) outcomes were identified. The overall FI and FQ of all outcomes were 6 (IQR 3-8) and 0.067 (IQR 0.032-0.100), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The literature surrounding calcaneus fractures may not be as statistically stable as previously thought. The sole reliance on the P value may depict misleading results. We, therefore, recommend reporting the P value in conjunction with the FI and FQ to give a robust contextualization of clinical findings in the calcaneus fracture literature.

Associations between religious/spiritual beliefs and behaviours and dietary patterns: analysis of the parental generation in a prospective cohort study (ALSPAC) in Southwest England

OBJECTIVE

Religious/spiritual beliefs and behaviours (RSBB) have been associated with health outcomes, with diet a potential mediator of this relationship. We therefore explored whether RSBB were associated with differences in diet.

DESIGN

Dietary patterns and nutrient intakes were derived from food frequency questionnaire completed by pregnant women in 1991-1992 (mean age = 28·3 years, range = 15-46) and by the mothers and partners 4 years post-partum (mothers mean age = 32·3, range = 19-49; partners mean age = 34·5, range = 18-74). RSBB exposures measured in pregnancy included religious belief, affiliation and attendance. We first explored whether RSBBs were associated with dietary patterns in confounder-adjusted linear regression models. If associations were found, we examined whether RSBB were associated with nutrient intake (linear regression) and following nutrient intake guidelines (logistic regression).

SETTING

Prospective birth cohort study in Southwest England (Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children; ALSPAC).

PARTICIPANTS

13 689 enrolled mothers and their associated partners.

RESULTS

In pregnant women, RSBB were associated with higher 'traditional' (i.e. 'meat and two veg') and lower 'vegetarian' dietary pattern scores. Religious attendance and non-Christian religious affiliation were associated with higher 'health-conscious' dietary pattern scores. Religious attendance was associated with increased micronutrient intake and following recommended micronutrient intake guidelines, with weaker effects for religious belief and affiliation. Comparable patterns were observed for mothers and partners 4 years post-partum, although associations between RSBB and nutrient intakes were weaker for partners.

CONCLUSIONS

RSBBs are associated with broad dietary patterns and nutrient intake in this cohort. If these reflect causal relationships, diet may potentially mediate the pathway between RSBB and health.

The bidirectional effects between cognitive ability and brain morphology: A life course Mendelian randomization analysis

Introduction

Little is understood about the dynamic interplay between brain morphology and cognitive ability across the life course. Additionally, most existing research has focused on global morphology measures such as estimated total intracranial volume, mean thickness, and total surface area.

Methods

Mendelian randomization was used to estimate the bidirectional effects between cognitive ability, global and regional measures of cortical thickness and surface area, estimated total intracranial volume, total white matter, and the volume of subcortical structures (N=37,864). Analyses were stratified for developmental periods (childhood, early adulthood, mid-to-late adulthood; age range: 8-81 years).

Results

The earliest effects were observed in childhood and early adulthood in the frontoparietal lobes. A bidirectional relationship was identified between higher cognitive ability, larger estimated total intracranial volume (childhood, mid-to-late adulthood) and total surface area (all life stages). A thicker posterior cingulate cortex and a larger surface area in the caudal middle frontal cortex and temporal pole were associated with greater cognitive ability. Contrary, a thicker temporal pole was associated with lower cognitive ability.

Discussion

Stable effects of cognitive ability on brain morphology across the life course suggests that childhood is potentially an important window for intervention.

The nutritional profile of commercial complementary foods in Japan: comparison between low- and high-price products

Despite the increasing market share of commercial complementary foods, their nutritional characteristics and those associated with the price of products are still unknown in Japan. We compared the nutritional characteristics of commercially available complementary foods of different price levels in Japan. Data were obtained from the websites of Japanese brands of infant and young children's food. Nutrient profiles (unit/100 g), ingredients and food additives were compared between low- and high-priced products by product type. Sixty-three dry meals, 425 soft meals, 187 snacks and sweets, and 60 drinks were analysed. One-fifth of meals and snacks exceeded the CODEX-defined limit (200 mg Na/100 g). Most products lacked content information on nutrients non-mandated to be indicated. High-priced soft meals contained more protein (2·5 v. 1·9 g/100 g) and less Na (0·18 v. 0·46 g/100 g), less frequently used ≥ 1 added sugar (23 % v. 82 %), and less frequently used food additives than low-priced products; however, they had a lower variety of ingredients. The prevalence of products containing ≥ 1 added sugar was higher in low-priced snacks and sweets (91 % v. 77 %) but lower in drinks (48 % v. 84 %) than in their high-priced counterparts. High Na content is a concern among commercial complementary foods in Japan. Nonetheless, the relationship between the price and nutritional profile of these foods differs by product type. High-priced soft meals might be more favourable regarding nutrient content but not the variety of ingredients than low-priced counterparts. These findings elucidate the nutritional characteristics of commercial complementary foods in Japan.

Two-sample inference procedures under nonproportional hazards

We introduce a new two-sample inference procedure to assess the relative performance of two groups over time. Our model-free method does not assume proportional hazards, making it suitable for scenarios where nonproportional hazards may exist. Our procedure includes a diagnostic tau plot to identify changes in hazard timing and a formal inference procedure. The tau-based measures we develop are clinically meaningful and provide interpretable estimands to summarize the treatment effect over time. Our proposed statistic is a U-statistic and exhibits a martingale structure, allowing us to construct confidence intervals and perform hypothesis testing. Our approach is robust with respect to the censoring distribution. We also demonstrate how our method can be applied for sensitivity analysis in scenarios with missing tail information due to insufficient follow-up. Without censoring, Kendall's tau estimator we propose reduces to the Wilcoxon-Mann-Whitney statistic. We evaluate our method using simulations to compare its performance with the restricted mean survival time and log-rank statistics. We also apply our approach to data from several published oncology clinical trials where nonproportional hazards may exist.

The Fragility of Statistical Significance in Sham Orthopaedic Surgery: A Systematic Review of Randomized Controlled Trials

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to determine the stability of statistical findings among sham surgery randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in orthopaedic surgery using fragility analysis.

METHODS

PubMed systematic review was conducted to include studies reporting dichotomous outcomes pertaining to sham surgery. The final review included eight RCTs involving only partial meniscectomies and vertebroplasties from 2009 to 2020. With a fixed sample size with dichotomous outcome measures (events versus non-events), the Total Fragility Index (TFI), which is composed of the fragility index (FI) and reverse fragility index (RFI), was calculated by altering the ratio of events to non-events in an iterative fashion until results were reversed from significant to nonsignificant findings (FI) or vice versa (RFI). The TFI, FI, and RFI were divided by their sample sizes to obtain the respective total fragility quotient, fragility quotient (FQ), and reverse fragility quotient. Median fragility indices and quotients were reported for all studies.

RESULTS

The eight RCTs included 50 dichotomous outcomes involving either partial meniscectomies or vertebroplasties, with a median TFI and total fragility quotient of 5 [interquartile range (IQR) 4 to 6] and 0.035 (IQR 0.028 to 0.048), respectively, indicating that a median of five total patients or 3.5 per 100 patients would need to experience a different outcome to reverse significant or insignificant findings for each of the eight trials. Among the 8 statistically significant ( P < 0.05) outcome events (16%), the respective FI and FQ were 2 (IQR 1 to 5) and 0.018 (IQR 0.010 to 0.044). Among the 42 statistically insignificant outcome events (84%), the respective RFI and reverse fragility quotient were 5 (IQR 4 to 6) and 0.04 (IQR 0.034 to 0.048). The median number of patients lost to follow-up was 1.5 (IQR 0.5 to 2).

CONCLUSION

The unstable findings in partial meniscectomy and vertebroplasty sham surgical RCTs undermine their study conclusions and recommendations. We recommend using fragility analysis in future sham surgical RCTs to contextualize statistical findings.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level IV; Systematic Review.

Occupation as means and ends in paediatric occupational therapy - A systematic review

BACKGROUND

There is a lack of evidence-based knowledge in paediatric occupational therapy about the effectiveness of interventions using daily activities as a treatment modality in improving children's participation.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of occupation-based and occupation-focused interventions in improving participation in everyday occupations for young children with a disability.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A systematic review based on Joanna Briggs Institute methodology and critical appraisal tools was conducted. Six databases were searched for quantitative intervention studies aimed at improving participation in everyday occupations of young children with a disability through the use of everyday occupation.

RESULTS

The search yielded 3732 records, of which 13 studies met inclusion criteria. Ten studies met methodological quality criteria and were included in the synthesis, five randomised controlled trials and five quasi-experimental studies, involving a total of 424 children with a mean age of 6.5 years. The studies were classified into cognitive (n = 5), context-focussed (n = 2) and playgroup interventions (n = 3). Study quality ranged from low to moderate, only one study was rated high quality.

CONCLUSIONS AND SIGNIFICANCE

Occupation-based and occupation-focused interventions may have a positive effect on participation in everyday occupations for young children with a disability, but study design, risk of bias and insufficient reporting limit confidence in the body of evidence.

Estimating statistical power for ERP studies using the auditory N1, Tb, and P2 components

The N1, Tb, and P2 components of the event-related potential (ERP) are thought to reflect the sequential processing of auditory stimuli in the human brain. Despite their extensive use in biological, cognitive, and clinical neuroscience, there are no guidelines for how to appropriately power ERP studies using these components. In the present study, we investigated how the number of trials, number of participants, effect magnitude, and study design influenced statistical power. Using Monte Carlo simulations of ERP data from a passive listening task, we determined the probability of finding a statistically significant effect in 58,900 experiments repeated 1,000 times each. We found that as the number of trials, number of participants, and effect magnitude increased, so did statistical power. We also found that increasing the number of trials had a bigger effect on statistical power for within-subject designs than for between-subject designs, and that within-subject designs required a smaller number of trials and participants to provide the same level of statistical power for a given effect magnitude than between-subject designs. These results show that it is important to carefully consider these factors when designing ERP studies, rather than relying on tradition or anecdotal evidence. To improve the robustness and reproducibility of ERP research, we have built an online statistical power calculator (https://bradleynjack.shinyapps.io/ErpPowerCalculator), which we hope will allow researchers to estimate the statistical power of previous studies, as well as help them design appropriately-powered studies in the future.

Causal relationship between addictive behaviors and epilepsy risk: A mendelian randomization study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies have reported inconsistent results regarding the potential relationships between addictive behaviors and the risk of epilepsy.

OBJECTIVE

To assess whether genetically predicted addictive behaviors are causally associated with the risk of epilepsy outcomes.

METHODS

The causation between five addictive behaviors (including cigarettes per day, alcoholic drinks per week, tea intake, coffee intake, and lifetime cannabis use) and epilepsy was evaluated by using a two-sample Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis. The inverse-variance weighted (IVW) method was used as the primary outcome. The other MR analysis methods (MR Egger, weighted median, simulation extrapolation corrected MR-Egger, and Mendelian Randomization Pleiotropy Residual Sum and Outlier (MR-PRESSO)) were performed to complement IVW. In addition, the robustness of the MR analysis results was assessed by leave-one-out analysis.

RESULTS

The IVW analysis method indicated an approximately 20% increased risk of epilepsy per standard deviation increase in lifetime cannabis use (odds ratio [OR], 1.20; 95% confidence interval [CI]), 1.02-1.42, P = 0.028). However, there is no causal association between the other four addictive behaviors and the risk of epilepsy (cigarettes per day: OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.92-1.18, P = 0.53; alcoholic drinks per week: OR, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.93-1.84, P = 0.13; tea intake: OR, 1.15; 95% CI, 0.84-1.56, P = 0.39; coffee intake: OR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.59-1.23, P = 0.41). The other MR analysis methods and further leave-one-out sensitivity analysis suggested the results were robust.

CONCLUSION

This MR study indicated a potential genetically predicted causal association between lifetime cannabis use and higher risk of epilepsy. As for the other four addictive behaviors, no evidence of a causal relationship with the risk of epilepsy was found in this study.

Extraordinary Claims in the Literature on High-Intensity Interval Training (HIIT): I. Bonafide Scientific Revolution or a Looming Crisis of Replication and Credibility?

The literature on high-intensity interval training (HIIT) contains claims that, if true, could revolutionize the science and practice of exercise. This critical analysis examines two varieties of claims: (i) HIIT is effective in improving various indices of fitness and health, and (ii) HIIT is as effective as more time-consuming moderate-intensity continuous exercise. Using data from two recent systematic reviews as working examples, we show that studies in both categories exhibit considerable weaknesses when judged through the prism of fundamental statistical principles. Predominantly, small-to-medium effects are investigated in severely underpowered studies, thus greatly increasing the risk of both type I and type II errors of statistical inference. Studies in the first category combine the volatility of estimates associated with small samples with numerous dependent variables analyzed without consideration of the inflation of the type I error rate. Studies in the second category inappropriately use the p > 0.05 criterion from small studies to support claims of 'similar' or 'comparable' effects. It is concluded that the situation in the HIIT literature is reminiscent of the research climate that led to the replication crisis in psychology. As in psychology, this could be an opportunity to reform statistical practices in exercise science.

Environmental Risk Factors, Protective Factors, and Biomarkers for Allergic Rhinitis: A Systematic Umbrella Review of the Evidence

Many potential environmental risk factors, protective factors, and biomarkers of AR have been published, but so far, the strength and consistency of their evidence are unclear. We conducted a comprehensive review of environmental risk, protective factors, and biomarkers for AR to establish the evidence hierarchy. We systematically searched Embase, PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science electronic database from inception to December 31, 2022. We calculated summary effect estimate (odds ratio (OR), relative risk (RR), hazard ratio (HR), and standardized mean difference (SMD)), 95% confidence interval, random effects p value, I2 statistic, 95% prediction interval, small study effects, and excess significance biases, and stratification of the level of evidence. Methodological quality was assessed by AMSTAR 2 (A Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews 2). We retrieved 4478 articles, of which 43 met the inclusion criteria. The 43 eligible articles identified 31 potential environmental risk factors (10,806,206 total population, two study not reported), 11 potential environmental protective factors (823,883 total population), and 34 potential biomarkers (158,716 total population) for meta-analyses. The credibility of evidence was convincing (class I) for tic disorders (OR = 2.89, 95% CI 2.11-3.95); and highly suggestive (class II) for early-life antibiotic use (OR = 3.73, 95% CI 3.06-4.55), exposure to indoor dampness (OR = 1.49, 95% CI 1.27-1.75), acetaminophen exposure (OR = 1.54, 95% CI 1.41-1.69), childhood acid suppressant use (OR = 1.40, 95% CI 1.23-1.59), exposure to indoor mold (OR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.26-2.18), coronavirus disease 2019 (OR = 0.11, 95% CI 0.06-0.22), and prolonged breastfeeding (OR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.65-0.79). This study is registered in PROSPERO (CRD42022384320).

Ketogenic Diet and Multiple Health Outcomes: An Umbrella Review of Meta-Analysis

Numerous studies have examined the effects of ketogenic diets (KD) on health-related outcomes through meta-analyses. However, the presence of biases may compromise the reliability of conclusions. Therefore, we conducted an umbrella review to collate and appraise the strength of evidence on the efficacy of KD interventions. We conducted a comprehensive search on PubMed, EMBASE, and the Cochrane Database until April 2023 to identify meta-analyses that investigated the treatment effects of KD for multiple health conditions, which yielded 23 meta-analyses for quantitative analyses. The evidence suggests that KD could increase the levels of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), total cholesterol (TC) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), the respiratory exchange rate (RER), and could decrease total testosterone and testosterone levels (all p-random effects: <0.05). The combination of KD and physical activity can significantly reduce body weight and increase the levels of LDL-C and cortisol. In addition, KD was associated with seizure reduction in children, which can be explained by the ketosis state as induced by the diet. Furthermore, KD demonstrated a better alleviation effect in refractory childhood epilepsy, in terms of median effective rates for seizure reduction of ≥50%, ≥90%, and seizure freedom. However, the strength of evidence supporting the aforementioned associations was generally weak, thereby challenging their credibility. Consequently, future studies should prioritize stringent research protocols to ascertain whether KD interventions with longer intervention periods hold promise as a viable treatment option for various diseases.

Higher versus lower fractions of inspired oxygen or targets of arterial oxygenation for adults admitted to the intensive care unit

BACKGROUND

This is an updated review concerning 'Higher versus lower fractions of inspired oxygen or targets of arterial oxygenation for adults admitted to the intensive care unit'. Supplementary oxygen is provided to most patients in intensive care units (ICUs) to prevent global and organ hypoxia (inadequate oxygen levels). Oxygen has been administered liberally, resulting in high proportions of patients with hyperoxemia (exposure of tissues to abnormally high concentrations of oxygen). This has been associated with increased mortality and morbidity in some settings, but not in others. Thus far, only limited data have been available to inform clinical practice guidelines, and the optimum oxygenation target for ICU patients is uncertain. Because of the publication of new trial evidence, we have updated this review.

OBJECTIVES

To update the assessment of benefits and harms of higher versus lower fractions of inspired oxygen (FiO2) or targets of arterial oxygenation for adults admitted to the ICU.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, BIOSIS Previews, and LILACS. We searched for ongoing or unpublished trials in clinical trial registers and scanned the reference lists and citations of included trials. Literature searches for this updated review were conducted in November 2022.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomised controlled trials (RCTs) that compared higher versus lower FiO2 or targets of arterial oxygenation (partial pressure of oxygen (PaO2), peripheral or arterial oxygen saturation (SpO2 or SaO2)) for adults admitted to the ICU. We included trials irrespective of publication type, publication status, and language. We excluded trials randomising participants to hypoxaemia (FiO2 below 0.21, SaO2/SpO2 below 80%, or PaO2 below 6 kPa) or to hyperbaric oxygen, and cross-over trials and quasi-randomised trials.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Four review authors independently, and in pairs, screened the references identified in the literature searches and extracted the data. Our primary outcomes were all-cause mortality, the proportion of participants with one or more serious adverse events (SAEs), and quality of life. We analysed all outcomes at maximum follow-up. Only three trials reported the proportion of participants with one or more SAEs as a composite outcome. However, most trials reported on events categorised as SAEs according to the International Conference on Harmonisation Good Clinical Practice (ICH-GCP) criteria. We, therefore, conducted two analyses of the effect of higher versus lower oxygenation strategies using 1) the single SAE with the highest reported proportion in each trial, and 2) the cumulated proportion of participants with an SAE in each trial. Two trials reported on quality of life. Secondary outcomes were lung injury, myocardial infarction, stroke, and sepsis. No trial reported on lung injury as a composite outcome, but four trials reported on the occurrence of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) and five on pneumonia. We, therefore, conducted two analyses of the effect of higher versus lower oxygenation strategies using 1) the single lung injury event with the highest reported proportion in each trial, and 2) the cumulated proportion of participants with ARDS or pneumonia in each trial. We assessed the risk of systematic errors by evaluating the risk of bias in the included trials using the Risk of Bias 2 tool. We used the GRADEpro tool to assess the overall certainty of the evidence. We also evaluated the risk of publication bias for outcomes reported by 10b or more trials.

MAIN RESULTS

We included 19 RCTs (10,385 participants), of which 17 reported relevant outcomes for this review (10,248 participants). For all-cause mortality, 10 trials were judged to be at overall low risk of bias, and six at overall high risk of bias. For the reported SAEs, 10 trials were judged to be at overall low risk of bias, and seven at overall high risk of bias. Two trials reported on quality of life, of which one was judged to be at overall low risk of bias and one at high risk of bias for this outcome. Meta-analysis of all trials, regardless of risk of bias, indicated no significant difference from higher or lower oxygenation strategies at maximum follow-up with regard to mortality (risk ratio (RR) 1.01, 95% confidence interval (C)I 0.96 to 1.06; I2 = 14%; 16 trials; 9408 participants; very low-certainty evidence); occurrence of SAEs: the highest proportion of any specific SAE in each trial RR 1.01 (95% CI 0.96 to 1.06; I2 = 36%; 9466 participants; 17 trials; very low-certainty evidence), or quality of life (mean difference (MD) 0.5 points in participants assigned to higher oxygenation strategies (95% CI -2.75 to 1.75; I2 = 34%, 1649 participants; 2 trials; very low-certainty evidence)). Meta-analysis of the cumulated number of SAEs suggested benefit of a lower oxygenation strategy (RR 1.04 (95% CI 1.02 to 1.07; I2 = 74%; 9489 participants; 17 trials; very low certainty evidence)). However, trial sequential analyses, with correction for sparse data and repetitive testing, could reject a relative risk increase or reduction of 10% for mortality and the highest proportion of SAEs, and 20% for both the cumulated number of SAEs and quality of life. Given the very low-certainty of evidence, it is necessary to interpret these findings with caution. Meta-analysis of all trials indicated no statistically significant evidence of a difference between higher or lower oxygenation strategies on the occurrence of lung injuries at maximum follow-up (the highest reported proportion of lung injury RR 1.08, 95% CI 0.85 to 1.38; I2 = 0%; 2048 participants; 8 trials; very low-certainty evidence). Meta-analysis of all trials indicated harm from higher oxygenation strategies as compared with lower on the occurrence of sepsis at maximum follow-up (RR 1.85, 95% CI 1.17 to 2.93; I2 = 0%; 752 participants; 3 trials; very low-certainty evidence). Meta-analysis indicated no differences regarding the occurrences of myocardial infarction or stroke.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

In adult ICU patients, it is still not possible to draw clear conclusions about the effects of higher versus lower oxygenation strategies on all-cause mortality, SAEs, quality of life, lung injuries, myocardial infarction, stroke, and sepsis at maximum follow-up. This is due to low or very low-certainty evidence.

Outcomes from a community speech and language therapy service treatment waiting list: The natural history of 525 children with identified speech and language needs

BACKGROUND

Understanding the natural history of developmental speech and language impairments can support the selection of children whose difficulties are persistent rather than transitory. It can also provide information against which the effectiveness of intervention can be evaluated. However, natural history data are difficult to collect ethically. Furthermore, as soon as an impairment is identified, the behaviour of those around changes, thus creating some level of intervention. Longitudinal cohort studies, where intervention is minimal, or the control arm of randomized trials have provided the best evidence. However, occasional opportunities arise where service waiting lists can provide data about the progress of children who have not received intervention. This natural history study arose within an ethnically diverse, community paediatric speech and language therapy service in the UK where levels of social disadvantage are high.

AIMS

To identify (1) the characteristics of the children who attended initial assessment and were selected for treatment; (2) the differences between children who did and did not attend reassessment; and (3) the factors associated with outcomes.

METHODS & PROCEDURES

A cohort of 545 children were referred and assessed as in need of therapy. Due to resource constraints, intervention was not available for an average of 12 months. Children were invited to attend for a reassessment of need. Initial and follow-up assessments were conducted by experienced clinicians using service guidelines and the Therapy Outcomes Measures Impairment Scale (TOM-I). Descriptive and multivariate regression analyses examined child outcomes for changes in communication impairment, demographic factors and length of wait.

OUTCOMES & RESULTS

At initial assessment, 55% of children presented with severe and profound communication impairments. Children offered appointments at clinics in areas of high social disadvantage were less likely to attend reassessment. By reassessment, 54% of children showed spontaneous improvement (mean TOM-I rating change = 0.58). However, 83% were still judged to require therapy. Approximately 20% of children changed their diagnostic category. Age and impairment severity at initial assessment were the best predictors of continuing requirement for input.

CONCLUSIONS & IMPLICATIONS

Although children do make spontaneous progress post-assessment and without intervention, it is likely that the majority will continue to be assigned case status by a Speech and Language Therapist. However, when evaluating the effectiveness of interventions, clinicians need to factor in the progress that a proportion of the caseload will make spontaneously. Services should be mindful that a lengthy wait may disproportionately impact children who already face health and educational inequalities.

WHAT THIS PAPER ADDS

What is already known on the subject Data from longitudinal cohorts (where intervention has been minimal) and the no treatment control arms of randomized controlled trials have provided the best evidence of the natural progression of speech and language impairments in children. These studies provide a varied rate of resolution and progress depending on the case definitions and measurements used. What this study adds to existing knowledge Uniquely, this study has evaluated the natural history of a large cohort of children who had been waiting for treatment for up to 18 months. Data showed that, over a period of waiting for intervention, the majority of those identified as a case by a Speech and Language Therapist remained a case. Using the TOM, on average children in the cohort made just over half a rating point progress during their waiting period. What are the potential or actual clinical implications of this work? The maintenance of treatment waiting lists is probably an unhelpful service strategy for two reasons: first, the case status of the majority of the children is unlikely to change whilst they await intervention and thus children and their families are subjected to further limbo waiting time; second, the dropout from the waiting list may disproportionately affect children who are offered appointments in clinics where there are higher levels of social disadvantage, thus exacerbating inequalities in the system. Currently, a suggested reasonable outcome of intervention is a 0.5 rating change in one domain of TOMs. Study findings suggest this is insufficiently stringent for a paediatric community clinic caseload. There is a need to evaluate spontaneous improvement which may occur in other TOM domains (i.e., Activity, Participation and Wellbeing) and to agree an appropriate change metric for a community paediatric caseload.

Adjuvant treatment and outcome of stage III melanoma patients: Results of a multicenter real-world German Dermatologic Cooperative Oncology Group (DeCOG) study

PURPOSE

Clinical trials demonstrated significantly improved recurrence-free survival (RFS) of melanoma patients receiving adjuvant treatment. As data from controlled trials are based on selected populations, we investigated adjuvantly treated stage III melanoma patients under real-world conditions.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

In a prior multicenter cohort study, stage III-IV melanoma patients were analysed for their choice of adjuvant therapy. In this follow-up study, we examined RFS, overall and melanoma-specific survival (MSS) and response to the subsequent treatment of 589 stage III patients (232 BRAF-mutated) receiving adjuvant PD-1 inhibitors (PD1; n = 479) or targeted therapy (TT; n = 110).

RESULTS

The median follow-up of the total cohort was 25.7 months. The main reason for premature discontinuation of adjuvant therapy was disease progression in PD1- (28.8%, n = 138/479) and adverse events in TT-treated patients (28.2%, n = 31/110). Among BRAF-mutated patients, RFS at 24 months was 49% (95% CI 40.6-59.0%) for PD1- and 67% (95% CI 58-77%) for TT-treated patients. The risk of recurrence was higher for BRAF-mutated PD1 than TT (hazard ratio 1.99; 95% CI 1.34-2.96; hazard ratio adjusted for age, sex and tumour stage, 2.21; 95% CI 1.48-3.30). Twenty-four months MSS was 87% (95% CI 81.0-94.1) for PD1 and 92% (95% CI 86.6-97.0) for TT. Response to subsequent systemic treatment for unresectable disease was 22% for all PD1- and 16% for TT-treated patients.

CONCLUSIONS

PD1-treated patients had more and earlier recurrences than TT patients. In BRAF-mutated patients, adjuvant TT might prevent early recurrences more effectively than PD1 treatment. Management of recurrence despite adjuvant treatment is challenging, with low response to current therapeutic options.

Sex differences in the pleiotropy of hearing difficulty with imaging-derived phenotypes: a brain-wide investigation

Background

Hearing difficulty (HD) is one of the major health burdens in older adults. While aging-related changes in the peripheral auditory system play an important role, genetic variation associated with brain structure and function could also be involved in HD predisposition.

Methods

We analyzed a large-scale HD genome-wide association study (GWAS; N total = 501,825, 56% females) and GWAS data related to 3,935 brain imaging-derived phenotypes (IDPs) assessed in up to 33,224 individuals (52% females) using multiple magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) modalities. To investigate HD pleiotropy with brain structure and function, we conducted genetic correlation, latent causal variable (LCV), Mendelian randomization (MR), and multivariable generalized linear regression analyses. Additionally, we performed local genetic correlation and multi-trait colocalization analyses to identify genomic regions and loci implicated in the pleiotropic mechanisms shared between HD and brain IDPs.

Results

We observed a widespread genetic correlation of HD with 120 IDPs in females, 89 IDPs in males, and 171 IDPs in the sex-combined analysis. The LCV analyses showed that some of these genetic correlations could be due to cause-effect relationships. For seven correlations, the causal effects were also confirmed by the MR approach: vessel volume→HD in the sex-combined analysis; hippocampus volume→HD, cerebellum grey matter volume→HD, primary visual cortex volume→HD, and HD→rfMRI-ICA100 node 46 in females; global mean thickness→HD and HD→mean orientation dispersion index in superior corona radiata in males. The local genetic correlation analyses identified 13 pleiotropic regions between HD and these seven IDPs. We also observed a colocalization signal for the rs13026575 variant between HD, primary visual cortex volume, and SPTBN1 transcriptomic regulation in females.

Conclusion

Brain structure and function may have a role in the sex differences in HD predisposition via possible cause-effect relationships and shared regulatory mechanisms.

Demographic and socioeconomic predictors of religious/spiritual beliefs and behaviours in a prospective cohort study (ALSPAC) in Southwest England: Results from the parental generation

Background: We explored associations between possible demographic and socioeconomic causes of religious/spiritual beliefs and behaviours (RSBB) in the parental generation of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Methods : We used a prospective birth cohort study (ALSPAC) in Southwest England with 14,157 enrolled mothers and 14,154 associated partners. Three RSBB outcome measures collected during pregnancy were examined: religious belief (belief in God/a divine power; yes/not sure/no), religious affiliation (Christian/none/other) and religious attendance (frequency of attendance at a place of worship). Multiple demographic and socioeconomic exposures were assessed (23 in mothers and 22 in partners). We explored age-adjusted associations between each exposure and outcome using multinomial regression, in addition to exposure-age interactions. Results: Many demographic and socioeconomic factors were associated with RSBB, including age, ethnicity, marital status, education, income and deprivation. Overall, higher socioeconomic position was associated with increased levels of RSBB, particularly regarding religious attendance. For instance, compared to mothers with the lowest level of educational attainment, a degree-level education was associated with a six-fold increase in the relative risk ratio of religious attendance at least once a week, relative to not attending at all (RRR=5.90; 95% CI=[4.44; 7.86]). The magnitude of these associations often varied by outcome, e.g., income was associated with religious attendance, but only weakly with religious affiliation. Although results were demographically and socially patterned, overall effect sizes were relatively small, with a largest pseudo- R 2 value of 2.4%. Patterns of association were similar for mothers and partners. Conclusion: The observed positive association between socioeconomic position and RSBB is contrary to much previous theoretical and empirical work. Potential reasons for these differences are discussed, including cross-cultural variation in religiosity and state support, and differences between RSBB measures. This descriptive paper can also help inform future studies using these data regarding the consideration of appropriate confounders.

Demographic and socioeconomic predictors of religious/spiritual beliefs and behaviours in a prospective cohort study (ALSPAC) in Southwest England: Results from the parental generation

Background: We explored associations between possible demographic and socioeconomic causes of religious/spiritual beliefs and behaviours (RSBB) in the parental generation of the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC). Methods : We used a prospective birth cohort study (ALSPAC) in Southwest England with 14,157 enrolled mothers and 14,154 associated partners. Three RSBB outcome measures collected during pregnancy were examined: religious belief (belief in God/a divine power; yes/not sure/no), religious affiliation (Christian/none/other) and religious attendance (frequency of attendance at a place of worship). Multiple demographic and socioeconomic exposures were assessed (23 in mothers and 22 in partners). We explored age-adjusted associations between each exposure and outcome using multinomial regression, in addition to exposure-age interactions. Results: Many demographic and socioeconomic factors were associated with RSBB, including age, ethnicity, marital status, education, income and deprivation. Overall, higher socioeconomic position was associated with increased levels of RSBB, particularly regarding religious attendance. For instance, compared to mothers with the lowest level of educational attainment, a degree-level education was associated with a six-fold increase in the relative risk ratio of religious attendance at least once a week, relative to not attending at all (RRR=5.90; 95% CI=[4.44; 7.86]). The magnitude of these associations often varied by outcome, e.g., income was associated with religious attendance, but only weakly with religious affiliation. Although results were demographically and socially patterned, overall effect sizes were relatively small, with a largest pseudo- R 2 value of 2.4%. Patterns of association were similar for mothers and partners. Conclusion: The observed positive association between socioeconomic position and RSBB is contrary to much previous theoretical and empirical work. Potential reasons for these differences are discussed, including cross-cultural variation in religiosity and state support, and differences between RSBB measures. This descriptive paper can also help inform future studies using these data regarding the consideration of appropriate confounders.

Pleural mesothelioma risk in the construction industry: a case-control study in Italy, 2000-2018

OBJECTIVES

Workers in the construction industry have been exposed to asbestos in various occupations. In Italy, a National Mesothelioma Registry has been implemented more than 20 years ago. Using cases selected from this registry and exploiting existing control data sets, we estimated relative risks for pleural mesothelioma (PM) among construction workers.

DESIGN

Case-control study.

SETTING

Cases from the National Mesothelioma Registry (2000-2018), controls from three previous case-control studies.

METHODS

We selected male PM incident cases diagnosed in 2000-2018. Population controls were taken from three studies performed in six Italian regions within two periods (2002-2004 and 2012-2016). Age-adjusted and period-adjusted unconditional logistic regression models were fitted to estimate odds ratios (OR) for occupations in the construction industry. We followed two approaches, one (primary) excluding and the other (secondary) including subjects employed in other non-construction blue collar occupations for >5 years. For both approaches, we performed an overall analysis including all cases and, given the incomplete temporal and geographic overlap of cases and controls, three time or/and space restricted sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

The whole data set included 15 592 cases and 2210 controls. With the primary approach (4797 cases and 1085 controls), OR was 3.64 (2181 cases) for subjects ever employed in construction. We found elevated risks for blue-collar occupations (1993 cases, OR 4.52), including bricklayers (988 cases, OR 7.05), general construction workers (320 cases, OR 4.66), plumbers and pipe fitters (305 cases, OR 9.13), painters (104 cases, OR 2.17) and several others. Sensitivity analyses yielded very similar findings. Using the secondary approach, we observed similar patterns, but ORs were remarkably lower.

CONCLUSIONS

We found markedly increased PM risks for most occupations in the construction industry. These findings are relevant for compensation of subjects affected with mesothelioma in the construction industry.

Investigating the prevalence and risk factors of picky eating in a birth cohort study

This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of childhood picky eating (PE) and to identify risk factors associated with different PE trajectories using data from the Growing up in Scotland research survey. PE was operationalised using three items across three study sweeps, at ages 2, 5 and 10 years respectively. We found 13.5 % of children with PE at age 2, 22.2 % at age 5, and 6.4 % at age 10. From these, we defined three PE categories: transient PE in early childhood (23.3 %), persistent PE into late childhood (3.7 %) and PE absent (73.0 %). Using multinomial logistic regression, we investigated associations between child and family characteristics and transient and persistent PE, adjusting for potential confounders. Various factors were associated with increased risk of persistent pickiness, including mothers who smoked during pregnancy and children whose mothers reported feeding challenges at 9-12 months. These findings support the view that PE behaviours are common and tend to remit by adolescence although a small number of children are at risk of experiencing longer term problems. Families of children who are exposed to such risks may benefit from preventative interventions.

An analysis of randomized controlled trials on anal fistula conducted between 2000 and 2020 based on the Fragility Index and Reverse Fragility Index

AIM

The aim of this work was to evaluate the robustness of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) on anal fistula management using the news tools of Fragility Index (FI), Reverse Fragility Index (RFI) and their corresponding fragility quotients.

METHOD

A systematic search was conducted based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) guidelines which utilized MEDLINE, EMBASE, Cochrane Library and Web of Science databases. Inclusion criteria included RCTs related to the management of anal fistula published from 2000 to 2022 with dichotomous outcomes measures and 1:1 allocation. Calculation of FI and RFI was performed by creating 2 × 2 contingency tables by successively changing one nonevent to an event for each outcome measure until the result was made nonsignificant or significant, respectively. The Fragility Quotients were calculated by dividing the FI or RFI by the total sample size. Fragile results were defined as those with a FI or RFI equal to or less than the number of patients lost to follow-up. Additionally, those with a FI or RFI less than 3 were also considered fragile. Studies were considered extremely fragile if FI was ≤1 or FQ was ≤0.01.

RESULTS

There were 36 RCTs that met our criteria, with 3223 patients. Among these, 19 (53%) were positive RCTs (p < 0.005) and 17 (47%) were negative RCTs (p > 0.05). The median FI was 2 (0-5). The analysis by categorical subgroup showed a strong correlation between FI and the p-value (p = 0.000) and the number of events (p = 0.011). The median RFI was 5 (3.5-9.5) and the subgroup analysis showed a strong correlation between RFI and the p-value (p = 0.000), sample size (0.021) and number needed to treat/number needed to harm (0.000). We considered 63.2% of positive RCTs to be fragile and 35.3% of negative RCTs.

CONCLUSIONS

In the present study we demonstrated the lack of robustness of study findings in published RCTs in the field of anal fistula.

Phenome-wide genetic-correlation analysis and genetically informed causal inference of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

Leveraging genome-wide association statistics generated from a large study of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS; 29,612 cases and 122,656 controls) and UK Biobank (UKB; 4,024 phenotypes, up to 361,194 participants), we conducted a phenome-wide analysis of ALS genetic liability and identified 46 genetically correlated traits, such as fluid intelligence score (rg = - 0.21, p = 1.74 × 10-6), "spending time in pub or social club" (rg = 0.24, p = 2.77 × 10-6), non-work related walking (rg = - 0.25, p = 1.95 × 10-6), college education (rg = - 0.15, p = 7.08 × 10-5), "ever diagnosed with panic attacks (rg = 0.39, p = 4.24 × 10-5), and "self-reported other gastritis including duodenitis" (rg = 0.28, p = 1.4 × 10-3). To assess the putative directionality of these genetic correlations, we conducted a latent causal variable analysis, identifying significant genetic causality proportions (gĉp) linking ALS genetic liability to seven traits. While the genetic component of "self-reported other gastritis including duodenitis" showed a causal effect on ALS (gĉp = 0.50, p = 1.26 × 10-29), the genetic liability to ALS is potentially causal for multiple traits, also including an effect on "ever being diagnosed with panic attacks" (gĉp = 0.79, p = 5.011 × 10-15) and inverse effects on "other leisure/social group activities" (gĉp = 0.66, p = 1 × 10-4) and prospective memory result (gĉp = 0.35, p = 0.005). Our subsequent Mendelian randomization analysis indicated that some of these associations may be due to bidirectional effects. In conclusion, this phenome-wide investigation of ALS polygenic architecture highlights the widespread pleiotropy linking this disorder with several health domains.

Comparison of indirect treatment methods in migraine prevention to address differences in mode of administration

Aim: Indirect treatment comparisons (ITCs) are anchored on a placebo comparator, and the placebo response may vary according to drug administration route. Migraine preventive treatment studies were used to evaluate ITCs and determine whether mode of administration influences placebo response and the overall study findings. Materials & methods: Change from baseline in monthly migraine days produced by monoclonal antibody treatments (subcutaneous, intravenous) was compared using fixed-effects Bayesian network meta-analysis (NMA), network meta-regression (NMR), and unanchored simulated treatment comparison (STC). Results: NMA and NMR provide mixed, rarely differentiated results between treatments, whereas unanchored STC strongly favors eptinezumab over other preventive treatments. Conclusion: Further investigations are needed to determine which ITC best reflects the impact of mode of administration on placebo.