How good is the science?

The clustering of physical health conditions and associations with co-occurring mental health problems and problematic alcohol use: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

There is strong evidence for the co-occurrence of mental health conditions and alcohol problems, yet physical health outcomes among this group are not well characterised. This study aimed to identify clusters of physical health conditions and their associations with mental health and problematic alcohol use in England's general population.

METHODS

Cross-sectional analysis of the 2014 Adult Psychiatric Morbidity Survey (N = 7546) was conducted. The survey used standardised measures of problematic alcohol use and mental health conditions, including the Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test (AUDIT) and the Clinical Interview Schedule-Revised. Participants self-reported any lifetime physical health conditions. Latent class analysis considered 12 common physical illnesses to identify clusters of multimorbidity. Multinomial logistic regression (adjusting for age, gender, ethnicity, education, and occupational grade) was used to explore associations between mental health, hazardous drinking (AUDIT 8 +), and co-occurring physical illnesses.

RESULTS

Five clusters were identified with statistically distinct and clinically meaningful disease patterns: 'Physically Healthy' (76.62%), 'Emerging Multimorbidity' (3.12%), 'Hypertension & Arthritis' (14.28%), 'Digestive & Bowel Problems'' (3.17%), and 'Complex Multimorbidity' (2.8%). Having a mental health problem was associated with increased odds of 'Digestive & Bowel Problems' (adjusted multinomial odds ratio (AMOR) = 1.58; 95% CI [1.15-2.17]) and 'Complex Multimorbidity' (AMOR = 2.02; 95% CI [1.49-2.74]). Individuals with co-occurring mental health conditions and problematic alcohol use also had higher odds of 'Digestive & Bowel Problems' (AMOR = 2.64; 95% CI [1.68-4.15]) and 'Complex Multimorbidity' (AMOR = 2.62; 95% CI [1.61-4.23]).

CONCLUSIONS

Individuals with a mental health condition concurrent with problematic alcohol use experience a greater burden of physical illnesses, highlighting the need for timely treatment which is likely to include better integration of alcohol and mental health services.

Alcohol use disorders and the heart

Alcohol use is an important preventable and modifiable cause of non-communicable disease, and has complex effects on the cardiovascular system that vary with dose. Observational and prospective studies have consistently shown a lower risk of cardiovascular and all-cause mortality in people with low levels of alcohol consumption when compared to abstainers (the 'J'-shaped curve). Maximum potential benefit occurs at 0.5 to one standard drinks (7-14 g pure ethanol) per day for women (18% lower all-cause mortality, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 13-22%) and one to two standard drinks (14-28 g ethanol) per day for men (17% lower all-cause mortality, 95% CI = 15-19%). However, this evidence is contested, and overall the detrimental effects of alcohol far outweigh the beneficial effects, with the risk of premature mortality increasing steadily after an average consumption of 10 g ethanol/day. Blood pressure (BP) is increased by regular alcohol consumption in a dose-dependent manner, with a relative risk for hypertension (systolic BP > 140 mm Hg or diastolic > 90 mm Hg) of 1.7 for 50 g ethanol/day and 2.5 at 100 g/day. Important reductions in BP readings can be expected after as little as 1 month of abstinence from alcohol. Heavy alcohol consumption in a binge pattern is associated with the development of acute cardiac arrhythmia, even in people with normal heart function. Atrial fibrillation is the most common arrhythmia associated with chronic high-volume alcohol intake, and above 14 g alcohol/day the relative risk increases 10% for every extra standard drink (14 g ethanol). Ethanol and its metabolites have toxic effects on cardiac myocytes, and alcoholic cardiomyopathy (ACM) accounts for a third of all cases of non-ischaemic dilated cardiomyopathy. Screening people drinking alcohol above low-volume levels and delivering a brief intervention may prevent the development of cardiovascular complications. Although people with established cardiovascular disease show improved outcomes with a reduction to low-volume alcohol consumption, there is no safe amount of alcohol to drink and patients with ACM should aim for abstinence in order to optimize medical treatment.

Associations of Lifestyle Behaviour and Healthy Ageing in Five Latin American and the Caribbean Countries-A 10/66 Population-Based Cohort Study

Latin American and the Caribbean countries exhibit high life expectancy and projections show that they will experience the fastest growth of older people in the following years. As people live longer, it is important to maximise the opportunity to age healthily. We aimed to examine the associations of lifestyle behaviours with healthy ageing in Cuba, Dominican Republic, Peru, Mexico and Puerto Rico, part of the 10/66 study. Residents 65 years old and over (n = 10,900) were interviewed between 2003 and 2010. In the baseline survey, we measured four healthy behaviours: Physical activity, non-smoking, moderate drinking and fruits or vegetables consumption. Healthy ageing was conceptualised within the functional ability framework over a median of 4 years follow-up. Logistic models were calculated per country and then pooled together with fixed-effects meta-analysis. People engaging in physical activity and consuming fruits or vegetables had increased odds of healthy ageing in the follow-up (OR: 2.59, 95% CI: 2.20–3.03; OR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.06–1.44, respectively). Compared with participants engaging in none or one healthy behaviour, the ORs of participants engaging in two, three or four healthy behaviours increased in a linear way (OR: 1.60, 95% CI: 1.40–1.84; OR: 2.29, 95% CI: 1.94–2.69; OR: 2.46, 95% CI: 1.54–3.92, respectively). Our findings highlight the importance of awareness of a healthy lifestyle behaviour among older people.

Short-term stability of different drinking patterns over the course of four weeks among adults. A latent transition analysis

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of the present study was to identify drinking patterns and determine their intraindividual stability over the course of four weeks among a sample of adults from the general population.

METHODS

The sample comprised 288 adults who reported drinking alcohol at least once per month (49% female; mean age = 33.1 years, SD = 12.8 years). Participants were recruited in the waiting area of a local registration office in northeastern Germany. Data were collected four times over four consecutive weeks by interview (once in the registration office and thrice by telephone). To assess alcohol consumption in the past seven days, timeline follow-back questions were administered each time. For data analysis, latent profile and latent transition analyses were applied. Indicators for latent classes were total number of drinks per seven days, number of drinking days, and number of days with heavy episodic drinking.

RESULTS

Three classes of seven-day drinking patterns were identified at baseline: (a) light drinkers (77%), (b) moderate drinkers (18%), and (c) heavy drinkers (5%). Approximately one-fifth (21%) of baseline light drinkers and 94% of baseline moderate drinkers changed their drinking pattern at least once during the four weeks. The majority (81%) of baseline moderate drinkers also reported light drinking in at least one of the three subsequent weeks.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest intraindividual changes in drinking patterns even during a short period of time. Instability of drinking patterns may potentially impair the assessment of light to moderate alcohol consumption when a quantity-frequency approach is applied.

Associations of smoking and alcohol consumption with healthy ageing: a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies

OBJECTIVES

The number of older people is growing across the world; however, quantitative synthesis of studies examining the impact of lifestyle factors on the ageing process is rare. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of longitudinal studies to synthesise the associations of smoking and alcohol consumption with healthy ageing (HA).

METHODS

Major electronic databases were searched from inception to March 2017 (prospectively registered systematic reviews registration number CRD42016038130). Studies were assessed for methodological quality. Random-effect meta-analysis was performed to calculate pooled ORs and 95% CI.

RESULTS

In total, we identified 28 studies (n=184 543); 27 studies reported results on smoking, 22 on alcohol consumption. 23 studies reported a significant positive association of never or former smoking with HA and 4 non-significant. 12 studies reported a significant positive association of alcohol consumption with HA, 9 no association and 1 negative. Meta-analysis revealed increased pooled OR of HA for never smokers compared with current smokers (2.36, 95% CI 2.03 to 2.75), never smokers compared with former smokers (1.32, 95% CI 1.23 to 1.41), former or never smokers compared with current smokers (1.72, 95% CI 1.20 to 2.47), never smokers compared with past or current smokers (1.29, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.43); drinkers compared with non-drinkers (1.28, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.52), light drinkers compared with non-drinkers (1.12, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.22), moderate drinkers compared with non-drinkers (1.35, 95% CI 0.93 to 1.97) and high drinkers compared with non-drinkers (1.25, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.44). There was considerable heterogeneity in the definition and measurement of HA and alcohol consumption.

CONCLUSIONS

There is consistent evidence from longitudinal studies that smoking is negatively associated with HA. The associations of alcohol consumption with HA are equivocal. Future research should focus on the implementation of a single metric of HA, on the use of consistent drinking assessment among studies and on a full-range of confounding adjustment. Our research also highlighted the limited research on ageing in low-and-middle-income countries.

Light Alcohol Consumption Does Not Protect Cognitive Function: A Longitudinal Prospective Study

Studies show that light to moderate alcohol consumption is related to better health and higher cognitive performance. However, it has been suggested that this association is caused by a systematic bias in the control group as many people abstain from drinking or quit because of health issues. Therefore, the group of non-drinkers is biased towards poor health and may not be suitable as a control group. The present study examined the effect of alcohol on cognitive performance while addressing this bias by excluding the non-drinkers. Thus, instead of comparing different levels of alcohol consumption to a non-drinking control group, a dose-response association was calculated between all levels of alcohol intake and cognitive performance. The study used information from a sample of people in the Swedish Twin Registry, who in their midlife (1967) participated in a survey on alcohol intake and 25 years later participated in a longitudinal study on cognitive aging (N = 486). The cognitive aging study took place on five occasions, at 2-year intervals, and included the Mini Mental State Examination (MMSE), tests of episodic memory, semantic memory and spatial ability. The association between midlife alcohol consumption and later cognitive performance was analyzed using growth curve models, adjusting for background variables. The findings showed that there was a significant negative dose-response association between alcohol intake in midlife and the MMSE, and the tests of episodic memory, such that higher intake in midlife was related to lower performance in old age. The associations between alcohol and semantic memory, and spatial ability respectively, were not significant. In contrast to findings from other studies, which show that low to moderate alcohol intake promotes cognitive function, the current study showed that alcohol intake was related to lower cognitive performance in a dose-response manner, even at low levels. The results from this study indicate that the observed benefits of moderate alcohol intake for cognitive function reported by others might be solely due to comparisons to an inappropriate control group, a group that is biased towards poor health. Hence, it is concluded that light alcohol intake may not protect cognitive function.

Alcohol Consumption and Common Carotid Intima-Media Thickness: The USE-IMT Study

Aims

Epidemiological evidence indicates a protective effect of light to moderate alcohol consumption compared to non-drinking and heavy drinking. Although several mechanisms have been suggested, the effect of alcohol on atherosclerotic changes in vessel walls is unclear. Therefore, we explored the relationship between alcohol consumption and common carotid intima media thickness, a marker of early atherosclerosis in the general population.

Methods

Individual participant data from eight cohorts, involving 37,494 individuals from the USE-IMT collaboration were used. Multilevel age and sex adjusted linear regression models were applied to estimate mean differences in common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) with alcohol consumption.

Results

The mean age was 57.9 years (SD 8.6) and the mean CIMT was 0.75 mm (SD 0.177). About, 40.5% reported no alcohol consumed, and among those who drank, mean consumption was 13.3 g per day (SD 16.4). Those consuming no alcohol or a very small amount (<5 g per day) had significantly lower common CIMT values than those consuming >10 g per day, after adjusting for a range of confounding factors.

Conclusion

In this large CIMT consortium, we did not find evidence to support a protective effect of alcohol on CIMT.

The relationship between different dimensions of alcohol use and the burden of disease-an update

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol use is a major contributor to injuries, mortality and the burden of disease. This review updates knowledge on risk relations between dimensions of alcohol use and health outcomes to be used in global and national Comparative Risk Assessments (CRAs).

METHODS

Systematic review of reviews and meta-analyses on alcohol consumption and health outcomes attributable to alcohol use. For dimensions of exposure: volume of alcohol use, blood alcohol concentration and patterns of drinking, in particular heavy drinking occasions were studied. For liver cirrhosis, quality of alcohol was additionally considered. For all outcomes (mortality and/or morbidity): cause of death and disease/injury categories based on International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes used in global CRAs; harm to others.

RESULTS

In total, 255 reviews and meta-analyses were identified. Alcohol use was found to be linked causally to many disease and injury categories, with more than 40 ICD-10 three-digit categories being fully attributable to alcohol. Most partially attributable disease categories showed monotonic relationships with volume of alcohol use: the more alcohol consumed, the higher the risk of disease or death. Exceptions were ischaemic diseases and diabetes, with curvilinear relationships, and with beneficial effects of light to moderate drinking in people without heavy irregular drinking occasions. Biological pathways suggest an impact of heavy drinking occasions on additional diseases; however, the lack of medical epidemiological studies measuring this dimension of alcohol use precluded an in-depth analysis. For injuries, except suicide, blood alcohol concentration was the most important dimension of alcohol use. Alcohol use caused marked harm to others, which has not yet been researched sufficiently.

CONCLUSIONS

Research since 2010 confirms the importance of alcohol use as a risk factor for disease and injuries; for some health outcomes, more than one dimension of use needs to be considered. Epidemiological studies should include measurement of heavy drinking occasions in line with biological knowledge.

The Association Between Health Changes and Cessation of Alcohol Consumption

AIMS

To assess whether health changes affect cessation of alcohol consumption and to compare the health status of former drinkers and abstainers.

METHODS

Cohort data from 9001 Korean participants aged 40-69 years old were analyzed. Alcohol consumption was assessed every 2 years for 10 years. Participant age, sex, marital status, education level, employment status, smoking, chronic disease, perceived health and changes in these variables were analyzed to identify factors associated with quitting alcohol drinking. The number of diseases and perceived health of former drinkers and people who at baseline were lifetime abstainers were compared.

RESULTS

Among 4037 drinkers at baseline, 673 (16.7%) were classed as quitters and 3364 (83.3%) were classed as non-quitters. Sex, age and worsened perception of health were significantly associated with cessation of drinking. Women and individuals >60 years were more likely to cease drinking. There was a significant association between disease onset or treatment and alcohol cessation for cancer cases, but not for cardiovascular disease or chronic disease cases. There was no significant difference in number of diseases or perceived health between former drinkers and people who at baseline were lifetime abstainers.

CONCLUSIONS

The effect of disease onset or treatment on alcohol consumption cessation depended on disease type. Former drinkers did not show significantly worse health than people who at baseline were lifetime abstainers. Further studies of alcohol consumption and its effects on health are needed to consider disease occurrence and changes in alcohol consumption.

SHORT SUMMARY

Disease onset or treatment significantly affected alcohol consumption cessation for cancer cases, but not for cardiovascular disease or other chronic disease cases. There was no significant difference in health status between former drinkers and lifetime abstainers.

Association between clinically recorded alcohol consumption and initial presentation of 12 cardiovascular diseases: population based cohort study using linked health records

Objectives To investigate the association between alcohol consumption and cardiovascular disease at higher resolution by examining the initial lifetime presentation of 12 cardiac, cerebrovascular, abdominal, or peripheral vascular diseases among five categories of consumption.Design Population based cohort study of linked electronic health records covering primary care, hospital admissions, and mortality in 1997-2010 (median follow-up six years).Setting CALIBER (ClinicAl research using LInked Bespoke studies and Electronic health Records).Participants 1 937 360 adults (51% women), aged ≥30 who were free from cardiovascular disease at baseline.Main outcome measures 12 common symptomatic manifestations of cardiovascular disease, including chronic stable angina, unstable angina, acute myocardial infarction, unheralded coronary heart disease death, heart failure, sudden coronary death/cardiac arrest, transient ischaemic attack, ischaemic stroke, intracerebral and subarachnoid haemorrhage, peripheral arterial disease, and abdominal aortic aneurysm.Results 114 859 individuals received an incident cardiovascular diagnosis during follow-up. Non-drinking was associated with an increased risk of unstable angina (hazard ratio 1.33, 95% confidence interval 1.21 to 1.45), myocardial infarction (1.32, 1.24 to1.41), unheralded coronary death (1.56, 1.38 to 1.76), heart failure (1.24, 1.11 to 1.38), ischaemic stroke (1.12, 1.01 to 1.24), peripheral arterial disease (1.22, 1.13 to 1.32), and abdominal aortic aneurysm (1.32, 1.17 to 1.49) compared with moderate drinking (consumption within contemporaneous UK weekly/daily guidelines of 21/3 and 14/2 units for men and women, respectively). Heavy drinking (exceeding guidelines) conferred an increased risk of presenting with unheralded coronary death (1.21, 1.08 to 1.35), heart failure (1.22, 1.08 to 1.37), cardiac arrest (1.50, 1.26 to 1.77), transient ischaemic attack (1.11, 1.02 to 1.37), ischaemic stroke (1.33, 1.09 to 1.63), intracerebral haemorrhage (1.37, 1.16 to 1.62), and peripheral arterial disease (1.35; 1.23 to 1.48), but a lower risk of myocardial infarction (0.88, 0.79 to 1.00) or stable angina (0.93, 0.86 to 1.00).Conclusions Heterogeneous associations exist between level of alcohol consumption and the initial presentation of cardiovascular diseases. This has implications for counselling patients, public health communication, and clinical research, suggesting a more nuanced approach to the role of alcohol in prevention of cardiovascular disease is necessary.Registration clinicaltrails.gov (NCT01864031).

The relationship between different dimensions of alcohol use and the burden of disease-an update

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Alcohol use is a major contributor to injuries, mortality and the burden of disease. This review updates knowledge on risk relations between dimensions of alcohol use and health outcomes to be used in global and national Comparative Risk Assessments (CRAs).

METHODS

Systematic review of reviews and meta-analyses on alcohol consumption and health outcomes attributable to alcohol use. For dimensions of exposure: volume of alcohol use, blood alcohol concentration and patterns of drinking, in particular heavy drinking occasions were studied. For liver cirrhosis, quality of alcohol was additionally considered. For all outcomes (mortality and/or morbidity): cause of death and disease/injury categories based on International Classification of Diseases (ICD) codes used in global CRAs; harm to others.

RESULTS

In total, 255 reviews and meta-analyses were identified. Alcohol use was found to be linked causally to many disease and injury categories, with more than 40 ICD-10 three-digit categories being fully attributable to alcohol. Most partially attributable disease categories showed monotonic relationships with volume of alcohol use: the more alcohol consumed, the higher the risk of disease or death. Exceptions were ischaemic diseases and diabetes, with curvilinear relationships, and with beneficial effects of light to moderate drinking in people without heavy irregular drinking occasions. Biological pathways suggest an impact of heavy drinking occasions on additional diseases; however, the lack of medical epidemiological studies measuring this dimension of alcohol use precluded an in-depth analysis. For injuries, except suicide, blood alcohol concentration was the most important dimension of alcohol use. Alcohol use caused marked harm to others, which has not yet been researched sufficiently.

CONCLUSIONS

Research since 2010 confirms the importance of alcohol use as a risk factor for disease and injuries; for some health outcomes, more than one dimension of use needs to be considered. Epidemiological studies should include measurement of heavy drinking occasions in line with biological knowledge.

The Effect of Reference Group Classification and Change in Alcohol Consumption on the Association Between Alcohol Consumption and Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND

Many studies suggest that mild alcohol consumption can help avert cardiovascular disease (CVD). This study investigated the association between alcohol consumption and CVD incidence, and assessed whether this differed by reference group classification. As alcohol consumption amounts may change over time, the results of simple and time-dependent analyses were compared.

METHODS

Data were from a community-based cohort study on 40- to 69-year-old Koreans recruited in 2001 to 2002. A total of 8,330 participants were followed up for 10 years and classed as nondrinkers (0 g/d), drinker group 1 (<15 g/d), and drinker group 2 (≥15 g/d). The risk of CVD, including myocardial infarction and coronary artery disease, was compared among groups using simple and time-dependent Cox analysis. Occasional drinkers (<2.5 g/d), nondrinkers, and lifetime abstainers were used as comparison reference groups.

RESULTS

Simple Cox analysis indicated that drinker group 1 exhibited a significantly lower risk of myocardial infarction (hazard ratio [HR]: 0.44, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.21, 0.92) and coronary artery disease (HR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.4, 0.94) than nondrinkers. Time-dependent analysis based on alcohol consumption change showed that the beneficial effects of drinker group 1 were significant only for myocardial infarction, not for coronary artery disease. The benefits did not change significantly when either nondrinkers or lifetime abstainers were the reference group. However, when occasional drinkers were included in the reference group, the benefits of drinker group 1 were not significant for myocardial infarction (HR: 0.65, 95% CI: 0.29, 1.45) or coronary artery disease (HR: 0.71, 95% CI: 0.42, 1.19). Occasional drinkers and drinkers had more similar sociodemographic characteristics than did nondrinkers and drinkers.

CONCLUSIONS

Further studies on alcohol consumption and its effects on health must use repeated measurement to define drinking status, as simple and time-dependent analyses can show different alcohol consumption risks. These findings do not indicate a beneficial effect of drinking <15 g/d when occasional drinkers and nondrinkers are included in the reference group.

Do "Moderate" Drinkers Have Reduced Mortality Risk? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Alcohol Consumption and All-Cause Mortality

OBJECTIVE

Previous meta-analyses of cohort studies indicate a J-shaped relationship between alcohol consumption and allcause mortality, with reduced risk for low-volume drinkers. However, low-volume drinkers may appear healthy only because the "abstainers" with whom they are compared are biased toward ill health. The purpose of this study was to determine whether misclassifying former and occasional drinkers as abstainers and other potentially confounding study characteristics underlie observed positive health outcomes for lowvolume drinkers in prospective studies of all-cause mortality.

METHOD

A systematic review and meta-regression analysis of studies investigating alcohol use and mortality risk after controlling for quality-related study characteristics was conducted in a population of 3,998,626 individuals, among whom 367,103 deaths were recorded.

RESULTS

Without adjustment, meta-analysis of all 87 included studies replicated the classic J-shaped curve, with low-volume drinkers (1.3-24.9 g ethanol per day) having reduced mortality risk (RR = 0.86, 95% CI [0.83, 0.90]). Occasional drinkers (<1.3 g per day) had similar mortality risk (RR = 0.84, 95% CI [0.79, 0.89]), and former drinkers had elevated risk (RR = 1.22, 95% CI [1.14, 1.31]). After adjustment for abstainer biases and quality-related study characteristics, no significant reduction in mortality risk was observed for low-volume drinkers (RR = 0.97, 95% CI [0.88, 1.07]). Analyses of higher-quality bias-free studies also failed to find reduced mortality risk for low-volume alcohol drinkers. Risk estimates for occasional drinkers were similar to those for low- and medium-volume drinkers.

CONCLUSIONS

Estimates of mortality risk from alcohol are significantly altered by study design and characteristics. Meta-analyses adjusting for these factors find that low-volume alcohol consumption has no net mortality benefit compared with lifetime abstention or occasional drinking. These findings have implications for public policy, the formulation of low-risk drinking guidelines, and future research on alcohol and health.

Is alcohol consumption a risk factor for prostate cancer? A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Research on a possible causal association between alcohol consumption and risk of prostate cancer is inconclusive. Recent studies on associations between alcohol consumption and other health outcomes suggest these are influenced by drinker misclassification errors and other study quality characteristics. The influence of these factors on estimates of the relationship between alcohol consumption and prostate cancer has not been previously investigated.

METHODS

PubMed and Web of Science searches were made for case-control and cohort studies of alcohol consumption and prostate cancer morbidity and mortality (ICD-10: C61) up to December 2014. Studies were coded for drinker misclassification errors, quality of alcohol measures, extent of control for confounding and other study characteristics. Mixed models were used to estimate relative risk (RR) of morbidity or mortality from prostate cancer due to alcohol consumption with study level controls for selection bias and confounding.

RESULTS

A total of 340 studies were identified of which 27 satisfied inclusion criteria providing 126 estimates for different alcohol exposures. Adjusted RR estimates indicated a significantly increased risk of prostate cancer among low (RR = 1.08, P < 0.001), medium (RR = 1.07, P < 0.01), high (RR = 1.14, P < 0.001) and higher (RR = 1.18, P < 0.001) volume drinkers compared to abstainers. There was a significant dose-response relationship for current drinkers (Ptrend < 0.01). Studies free from misclassification errors produced the highest risk estimates for drinkers versus abstainers in adjusted models (RR = 1.22, P < 0.05).

CONCLUSION

Our study finds, for the first time, a significant dose-response relationship between level of alcohol intake and risk of prostate cancer starting with low volume consumption (>1.3, <24 g per day). This relationship is stronger in the relatively few studies free of former drinker misclassification error. Given the high prevalence of prostate cancer in the developed world, the public health implications of these findings are significant. Prostate cancer may need to be incorporated into future estimates of the burden of disease alongside other cancers (e.g. breast, oesophagus, colon, liver) and be integrated into public health strategies for reducing alcohol related disease.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2015: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2015 provides an up-to-date synthesis of the evidence for risk factor exposure and the attributable burden of disease. By providing national and subnational assessments spanning the past 25 years, this study can inform debates on the importance of addressing risks in context.

METHODS

We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease Study to estimate attributable deaths, disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), and trends in exposure by age group, sex, year, and geography for 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2015. This study included 388 risk-outcome pairs that met World Cancer Research Fund-defined criteria for convincing or probable evidence. We extracted relative risk and exposure estimates from randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources. We used statistical models to pool data, adjust for bias, and incorporate covariates. We developed a metric that allows comparisons of exposure across risk factors-the summary exposure value. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk level, we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. We decomposed trends in attributable burden into contributions from population growth, population age structure, risk exposure, and risk-deleted cause-specific DALY rates. We characterised risk exposure in relation to a Socio-demographic Index (SDI).

FINDINGS

Between 1990 and 2015, global exposure to unsafe sanitation, household air pollution, childhood underweight, childhood stunting, and smoking each decreased by more than 25%. Global exposure for several occupational risks, high body-mass index (BMI), and drug use increased by more than 25% over the same period. All risks jointly evaluated in 2015 accounted for 57·8% (95% CI 56·6-58·8) of global deaths and 41·2% (39·8-42·8) of DALYs. In 2015, the ten largest contributors to global DALYs among Level 3 risks were high systolic blood pressure (211·8 million [192·7 million to 231·1 million] global DALYs), smoking (148·6 million [134·2 million to 163·1 million]), high fasting plasma glucose (143·1 million [125·1 million to 163·5 million]), high BMI (120·1 million [83·8 million to 158·4 million]), childhood undernutrition (113·3 million [103·9 million to 123·4 million]), ambient particulate matter (103·1 million [90·8 million to 115·1 million]), high total cholesterol (88·7 million [74·6 million to 105·7 million]), household air pollution (85·6 million [66·7 million to 106·1 million]), alcohol use (85·0 million [77·2 million to 93·0 million]), and diets high in sodium (83·0 million [49·3 million to 127·5 million]). From 1990 to 2015, attributable DALYs declined for micronutrient deficiencies, childhood undernutrition, unsafe sanitation and water, and household air pollution; reductions in risk-deleted DALY rates rather than reductions in exposure drove these declines. Rising exposure contributed to notable increases in attributable DALYs from high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, occupational carcinogens, and drug use. Environmental risks and childhood undernutrition declined steadily with SDI; low physical activity, high BMI, and high fasting plasma glucose increased with SDI. In 119 countries, metabolic risks, such as high BMI and fasting plasma glucose, contributed the most attributable DALYs in 2015. Regionally, smoking still ranked among the leading five risk factors for attributable DALYs in 109 countries; childhood underweight and unsafe sex remained primary drivers of early death and disability in much of sub-Saharan Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Declines in some key environmental risks have contributed to declines in critical infectious diseases. Some risks appear to be invariant to SDI. Increasing risks, including high BMI, high fasting plasma glucose, drug use, and some occupational exposures, contribute to rising burden from some conditions, but also provide opportunities for intervention. Some highly preventable risks, such as smoking, remain major causes of attributable DALYs, even as exposure is declining. Public policy makers need to pay attention to the risks that are increasingly major contributors to global burden.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Don't Change Much

Few studies have assessed differences in the prevalence of and economic burden attributable to tobacco smoking, excess weight, physical inactivity, and alcohol use by gender. This article examines these gender differences in Canadians between the ages of 30 and 64 years. It also estimates the potential cost avoidance if the prevalence of the four risk factors (RFs) were reduced modestly in males. Data on the prevalence of the RFs and the relative risk of disease associated with each of the RFs were combined to calculate population-attributable fractions. A prevalence-based cost-of-illness approach was used to estimate the economic burden associated with the four RFs. Middle-aged Canadian males are more likely to smoke tobacco (26.4% vs. 20.2%), consume hazardous or harmful levels of alcohol (14.6% vs. 8.2%), and have excess weight (65.6% vs. 47.1%) than middle-aged Canadian females, resulting in an annual economic burden that is 27% higher in males than females. No significant differences were observed in the proportion of males who are physically inactive (48.4% vs. 49.4%). Modelling only a 1% annual relative reduction each year through to 2036 would result in a cumulative cost avoidance between 2013 and 2036 of $50.7 billion. The differences in RF prevalence between middle-aged males and females have an important effect on the population’s economic burden. A modest annual reduction in the four RFs in males can significantly affect population health and the economy over time.

Twenty-year trajectories of alcohol consumption during midlife and atherosclerotic thickening in early old age: findings from two British population cohort studies

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological evidence indicates a protective effect of light-moderate drinking on cardiovascular disease and an increased risk for heavier drinking. Nevertheless, the effect of alcohol on atherosclerotic changes in vessel walls is disputed. Most previous studies have only looked at the cross-sectional relationship between alcohol and carotid intima media thickness (cIMT) - a surrogate marker of atherosclerosis. Single measurements of alcohol assume that alcohol exposure is stable and ignore the possible cumulative effects of harm, leading to possibly incorrect inferences.

METHODS

Data were retrieved from two UK population based cohort studies: the Whitehall II cohort of civil servants and the MRC National Survey of Health and Development (combined sample size of 5403 men and women). Twenty year-drinking trajectories during midlife were linked to measures of cIMT when participants were in early old age, and adjusted for age, sex, socioeconomic position, ethnicity and smoking.

RESULTS

Those who consistently drank heavily had an increased cIMT compared to stable moderate drinkers (pooled difference in cIMT 0.021 mm; 95 % CI 0.002 to 0.039), after adjustment for covariates. This was not detected in cross-sectional analyses. Former drinkers also had an increased cIMT compared to moderate drinkers (pooled difference in cIMT 0.021; 95 % CI 0.005 to 0.037). There were no appreciable differences in cIMT between non-drinkers and consistent moderate drinkers.

CONCLUSION

The drinking habits among adults during midlife affect the atherosclerotic process and sustained heavy drinking is associated with an increased cIMT compared to stable moderate drinkers. This finding was not seen when only using cross-sectional analyses, thus highlighting the importance of taking a life course approach. There was no evidence of a favourable atherosclerotic profile from stable moderate drinking compared to stable non-drinking.

Alcohol: taking a population perspective

Alcohol consumption is a global phenomenon, as is the resultant health, social and economic harm. The nature of these harms varies with different drinking patterns and with the societal and political responses to the burden of harm; nevertheless, alcohol-related chronic diseases have a major effect on health. Strong evidence exists for the effectiveness of different strategies to minimize this damage and those policies that target price, availability and marketing of alcohol come out best, whereas those using education and information are much less effective. However, these policies can be portrayed as anti-libertarian and so viewing them in the context of alcohol-related harm to those other than the drinker, such as the most vulnerable in society, is important. When this strategy is successful, as in Scotland, it has been possible to pass strong and effective legislation, such as for a minimum unit price for alcohol.

Alcohol Use and Breast Cancer: A Critical Review

The objective of this study was to outline the biological pathways of alcohol-attributable breast cancer, the epidemiological risk relationship between alcohol consumption and breast cancer, and the global burden of breast cancer incidence and mortality attributable to alcohol consumption, with a focus on light drinking. First, the literature regarding the biological mechanisms of how alcohol affects the risk of breast cancer was reviewed and summarized. Second, a search of meta-analyses that evaluated the risk relationship between alcohol consumption and breast cancer was conducted. Last, the burden of alcohol-attributable breast cancer incidence and mortality was estimated by means of a Population-Attributable Fraction methodology. Data on alcohol consumption were obtained from the Global Information System on Alcohol and Health, and data on cancer incidence and mortality were obtained from the GLOBOCAN database. Alcohol consumption affects breast cancer risk through the alteration in hormone levels and the associated biological pathways, the metabolism of ethanol resulting in carcinogens, and the inhibition of the one carbon metabolism pathway. The systematic review found 15 meta-analyses on the risk relationship between alcohol consumption (also light consumption) and the risk of breast cancer. All but 2 of these analyses showed a dose-response relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of breast cancer. An estimated 144,000 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 88,000 to 200,000) breast cancer cases and 38,000 (95% CI: 2,400 to 53,000) breast cancer deaths globally in 2012 were attributable to alcohol, with 18.8% of these cases and 17.5% of these deaths affecting women who were light alcohol consumers. All levels of evidence showed a risk relationship between alcohol consumption and the risk of breast cancer, even at low levels of consumption. Due to this strong relationship, and to the amount of alcohol consumed globally, the incidence of and mortality from alcohol-attributable breast cancer is large.

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

BACKGROUND

The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution.

METHODS

Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk-outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990-2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol.

FINDINGS

All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8-58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1-43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5-89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa.

INTERPRETATION

Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Reliability of a retrospective decade-based life-course alcohol consumption questionnaire administered in later life

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Retrospective measures of alcohol intake are becoming increasingly popular; however, the reliability of such measures remains uncertain. This study assessed the reliability of a retrospective decade-based life-course alcohol consumption questionnaire, based on the standardized Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C) administered in older age in a well-characterized cohort study.

DESIGN, SETTING, PARTICIPANTS AND MEASUREMENTS

A retrospective alcohol life-grid was administered to 5980 participants (72% male, mean age 70 years) in the Whitehall II study covering frequency of drinking, number of drinks in a typical drinking day and frequency of consuming six or more drinks in a single drinking occasion in the teens (16-19 years) through to the 80s. A subsample of 385 individuals completed a repeat survey to determine test-retest reliability. Retrospective measures were also compared with prospectively ascertained information and used to predict objectively measured systolic blood pressure to test their predictive validity.

FINDINGS

Across all decades of life, test-retest reliability was generally good (κ range = 0.62-0.78 for frequency, 0.55-0.62 for usual number of drinks and 0.57-0.65 for frequency of consuming six or more drinks in a single occasion). The concordance between prospective and retrospective measures was consistently moderate to high. The life-grid method performed better than a single question in identifying life-time abstainers. Retrospective measures were also related to systolic blood pressure in the manner anticipated.

CONCLUSION

A retrospective decade-based AUDIT-C grid administered in older age provides a relatively reliable measure of alcohol consumption across the life-course.

Drinking pattern during midlife and risk of developing depression during 28 years of follow-up: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The long-term impact of alcohol intake in midlife on developing depression is not clear. We aimed to investigate drinking pattern during midlife as a risk factor for developing depression during 28 years of follow-up.

METHODS

We used data from a well characterised prospective cohort study (the Whitehall II study) of 7478 men and women (70% male) aged 35 to 55 years, and free from depression in 1985-1988, followed up regularly until 2013. Drinking pattern was defined in terms of usual and maximum amounts consumed within a single drinking session, total weekly volume of alcohol consumed and drinking frequency. Depression was assessed using the General Health Questionnaire Depression Subscale at multiple follow-up occasions (up to eight times in total). Associations between different drinking pattern components during midlife and depression were estimated using flexible parametric survival models.

RESULTS

After adjustment for confounding factors only abstaining from alcohol during midlife was associated with an increased risk of developing depression during long-term observation. However, this association became non-significant after adjusting for baseline self-reported health.

CONCLUSIONS

In this community dwelling population, drinking pattern during midlife was not associated with an increased risk of developing depression.

Heavy drinking days and mental health: an exploration of the dynamic 10-year longitudinal relationship in a prospective cohort of untreated heavy drinkers

BACKGROUND

Identifying dominant processes that underlie the development of other processes is important when evaluating the temporal sequence between disorders. Such information not only improves our understanding of etiology but also allows for effective intervention strategies to be tailored. The temporal relationship between alcohol intake and mental health remains poorly understood, particularly in nonclinical samples. The purpose of this study was to disentangle the dominant temporal sequence between mental health and frequency of heavy drinking days.

METHODS

We report a 10-year (1997 to 2007) prospective cohort study of 500 respondents (74% male) from the Birmingham Untreated Heavy Drinkers project. Participants were aged 25 to 55 years at baseline, drinking a minimum of 50/35 U.K. units of alcohol for men/women on a weekly basis, and were not seeking treatment for their alcohol use upon recruitment into the study. Heavy drinking days were defined as consuming 10/7+ U.K. units of alcohol in a single day for men/women. Mental health was assessed using the mental health component score of the SF-36 questionnaire. Dynamic longitudinal structural equation models were used to test competing theoretical models (frequency of heavy drinking days leading to changes in mental health scores and vice versa) and a reciprocal relationship (both mental health scores and the frequency of heavy drinking days influencing changes in each other).

RESULTS

A model whereby mental health scores were predictors of change in the frequency of heavy drinking days was of best fit. In this model, mental health scores were negatively related to change in heavy drinking days (β -0.80, SE 0.28) indicating that those with higher mental health scores (i.e., better functioning) made larger reductions in the number of heavy drinking days over time.

CONCLUSIONS

Mental health appears to be the stronger underlying process in the relationship between mental health and frequency of heavy drinking days.

Inconsistency in reporting abstention and heavy drinking frequency: associations with sex and socioeconomic status, and potential impacts

AIMS

To describe inconsistencies in reporting past-year drinking status and heavy drinking occasions (HDOs) on single questions from two different instruments, and to identify associated characteristics and impacts.

METHODS

We compared computer-presented Alcohol Use Disorder Identification Test-Consumption (AUDIT-C) with categorical response options, and mental health interview (MHI) with open-ended consumption questions, completed on the same day. Participants were 464 men and 459 women aged 38 (91.7% of surviving birth cohort members). Differences in dichotomous single-item measures of abstention and HDO frequency, associations of inconsistent reporting with sex, socioeconomic status (SES) and survey order, and impacts of instrument choice on associations of alcohol with sex and SES were examined.

RESULTS

The AUDIT-C drinking frequency question estimated higher past-year abstention prevalence (AUDIT = 7.6%, MHI = 5.4%), with one-third of AUDIT-C abstainers being MHI drinkers. Only AUDIT-C produced significant sex differences in abstainer prevalence. Inconsistencies in HDO classifications were bidirectional, but with fewer HDOs reported on the MHI than AUDIT-C question. Lower SES was associated with inconsistency in abstention and weekly+ HDOs. Abstention and higher HDO frequency were associated with lower SES overall, but sex-specific associations differed by instrument.

CONCLUSIONS

In this context, data collection method affected findings, with inconsistencies in abstention reports having most impact. Future studies should: (a) confirm self-reported abstention; (b) consider piloting data collection methods in target populations; (c) expect impacts of sex and SES on measurements and analyses.

Drinking pattern, abstention and problem drinking as risk factors for depressive symptoms: evidence from three urban Eastern European populations

Purpose

To examine whether the frequency and amount of alcohol consumed in binge drinking sessions, total annual volume of alcohol consumed, problem drinking and abstaining from alcohol are associated with depressive symptoms in Eastern Europe.

Subjects and Methods

Cross-sectional data from a total of 24,381 participants from general population samples of the Czech Republic (N = 7,601), Russia (N = 6,908) and Poland (N = 9,872) aged 45–69 years in 2002–2005. Depressive symptoms were defined as ≥16 points on the Centre for Epidemiological Studies – Depression (CES-D) scale. Several alcohol related measures were derived using responses from the graduated frequency questionnaire. Binge drinking was defined at several sex-specific thresholds (ranging from 60+ to 140+ g of ethanol) and two frequencies (at least monthly or weekly). Total annual alcohol intake in grams was also extracted. Problem drinking was defined as ≥2 positive answers on the CAGE questionnaire.

Results

Problem drinking was consistently associated with approximately a 2-fold increase in odds of depressive symptoms across all countries and in both sexes. Abstaining from alcohol was typically associated with increased odds of depressive symptoms. Analyses separating lifelong abstainers and former drinkers in the Russian cohort revealed that this increased odds was driven by former drinkers. Amongst men, heavy frequent binge drinking was associated with increased odds of depressive symptoms in the Czech Republic and Poland. In women, heavy infrequent binge drinking was associated with increased odds of depressive symptoms in Russia and Poland. Only in Polish men was higher annual volume of alcohol intake associated with increased odds of depressive symptoms.

Conclusion

Abstaining from alcohol and problem drinking were associated with increased odds of depressive symptoms in these Eastern European populations. Annual volume of alcohol intake as well as frequency and amount of alcohol consumed in a binge drinking session were less consistently associated with depressive symptoms.

Methodological biases in estimating the relationship between alcohol consumption and breast cancer: the role of drinker misclassification errors in meta-analytic results

BACKGROUND

While alcohol consumption has been linked to breast cancer in women, few studies have controlled for possible biases created by including former or occasional drinkers in the abstainer reference group. We explored the potential for such misclassification errors as sources of bias in estimates of the alcohol-breast cancer relationship.

METHODS

Meta-analyses of population case-control, hospital case-control, and cohort studies to examine relationships between level of alcohol use and breast cancer morbidity and/or mortality in groups of studies with and without different misclassification errors.

RESULTS

Of 60 studies identified, only 6 were free of all misclassification errors. The abstainer reference group was biased by the inclusion of former drinkers in 49 studies, occasional drinkers (<10 g ethanol [EtOH] per week) in 22 and by both these groups in 18. Occasional drinkers were also mixed with light or hazardous-level drinkers in 22 studies. Unbiased estimates of the odds ratio (OR) for breast cancer were 1.011 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.891 to 1.148) among former drinkers (n = 11) and 1.034 (95% CI: 1.003 to 1.064) among occasional drinkers (n = 17). Hazardous-level drinking (>20 g < 41 g EtOH/d) was not significantly associated with breast cancer in studies with occasional drinker bias. However, in studies free from occasional drinker bias, the OR for breast cancer was 1.085 (95% CI: 1.015 to 1.160) for low-level (<21 g/d) drinkers (n = 17), 1.374 (95% CI: 1.319 to 1.431) for hazardous-level drinkers (n = 26), and 1.336 (95% CI: 1.228 to 1.454) for harmful-level (>40 g/d) drinkers (n = 9).

CONCLUSIONS

While the great majority of studies of the alcohol-breast cancer link include misclassification errors, only misclassification of occasional drinkers was found to bias risk estimates significantly. Estimates based on error-free studies confirmed that low, hazardous and harmful levels of alcohol use each significantly increase the risk of breast cancer.

Confounding and studies of 'moderate' alcohol consumption: the case of drinking frequency and implications for low-risk drinking guidelines

AIMS

Many observational studies suggest that increased drinking frequency is associated with reduced mortality among those with low-dose alcohol consumption. The purpose of this paper was to examine whether frequent drinkers consume lower-risk amounts during drinking days or have favorable risk factor profiles compared with those who drink less frequently, and discuss implications for the larger debate about the limitations of non-randomized studies about 'moderate' drinking and the development of low-risk drinking guidelines.

METHODS

Data from the 2008 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System survey were used to characterize alcohol consumption characteristics and their relationship with risk factors among adult drinking men who consumed an average of fewer than two drinks per day and adult drinking adult women who consumed an average of less than one drink per day.

RESULTS

Those who drank relatively infrequently (14 or fewer days per month) consumed more during drinking days, were more likely to exceed the US Dietary Guidelines drinking limits (41.0% versus 9.7%) and had a larger proportion of drinking days that included binge drinking (13.4% versus 4.3%). Infrequent drinkers also had a higher prevalence of 13 of 15 risk factors assessed. Findings from analyses of those aged ≥40 years were similar.

CONCLUSIONS

Among those with low average alcohol consumption, infrequent drinkers drink more during drinking days and have unfavorable risk factors profiles compared with more frequent drinkers, suggesting that confounding may contribute to favorable associations with 'moderate' average alcohol consumption and increased drinking frequency observed in non-randomized studies.

Alcohol-attributable cancer deaths and years of potential life lost in the United States

OBJECTIVES

Our goal was to provide current estimates of alcohol-attributable cancer mortality and years of potential life lost (YPLL) in the United States.

METHODS

We used 2 methods to calculate population-attributable fractions. We based relative risks on meta-analyses published since 2000, and adult alcohol consumption on data from the 2009 Alcohol Epidemiologic Data System, 2009 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, and 2009-2010 National Alcohol Survey.

RESULTS

Alcohol consumption resulted in an estimated 18,200 to 21,300 cancer deaths, or 3.2% to 3.7% of all US cancer deaths. The majority of alcohol-attributable female cancer deaths were from breast cancer (56% to 66%), whereas upper airway and esophageal cancer deaths were more common among men (53% to 71%). Alcohol-attributable cancers resulted in 17.0 to 19.1 YPLL for each death. Daily consumption of up to 20 grams of alcohol (≤ 1.5 drinks) accounted for 26% to 35% of alcohol-attributable cancer deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol remains a major contributor to cancer mortality and YPLL. Higher consumption increases risk but there is no safe threshold for alcohol and cancer risk. Reducing alcohol consumption is an important and underemphasized cancer prevention strategy.

Alcohol use in adolescence and risk of disability pension: a 39 year follow-up of a population-based conscription survey

BACKGROUND

The role of alcohol consumption for disability pension (DP) is controversial and systematic reviews have not established causality. We aimed to assess the role of adolescent alcohol use for future DP. We wanted to find out whether an increased risk mainly would affect DP occurring early or late in life as well as whether the level of alcohol consumption and patterns of drinking contribute differently in DP receiving.

METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The study is a 39-year follow-up of 49 321 Swedish men born in 1949-1951 and conscripted for compulsory military service in 1969-1970. As study exposures (i) "risk use" of alcohol composed of measures related to pattern of drinking, and (ii) the level of consumption based on self-reported volume and frequency of drinking had been used. Information on DP was obtained from social insurance databases through 2008. "Risk use" of alcohol was associated with both "early DP" and "late DP", i.e. granted below and above the approximate age of 40 years, with crude hazard ratio (HR) of 2.89 (95% confidence intervals (CI) 2.47-3.38) and HR of 1.87 (95%CI: 1.74-2.02), respectively. After adjustment for covariates, HR was reduced to 1.32 (95%CI: 1.09-1.59) and 1.14 (95%CI: 1.05-1.25), respectively. Similar patterns were seen for moderate (101-250 g 100% alcohol/week) and high (>250 g) consumption, though the risk disappeared when fully adjusted.

CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE

Alcohol use in adolescence, particularly measured as "risk use", is associated with increased risk of future DP. The association is stronger for "early DP", but remains significant even for DP granted in older ages. Therefore, pattern of drinking in adolescent should be considered an important marker for future reduced work capacity.