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Picinini Freitas L, Douwes-Schultz D, Schmidt AM, Ávila Monsalve B, Salazar Flórez JE, García-Balaguera C, Restrepo BN, Jaramillo-Ramirez GI, Carabali M, Zinszer K. Zika emergence, persistence, and transmission rate in Colombia: a nationwide application of a space-time Markov switching model. Sci Rep 2024; 14:10003. [PMID: 38693192 PMCID: PMC11063144 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-024-59976-7] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/15/2023] [Accepted: 04/17/2024] [Indexed: 05/03/2024] Open
Abstract
Zika, a viral disease transmitted to humans by Aedes mosquitoes, emerged in the Americas in 2015, causing large-scale epidemics. Colombia alone reported over 72,000 Zika cases between 2015 and 2016. Using national surveillance data from 1121 municipalities over 70 weeks, we identified sociodemographic and environmental factors associated with Zika's emergence, re-emergence, persistence, and transmission intensity in Colombia. We fitted a zero-state Markov-switching model under the Bayesian framework, assuming Zika switched between periods of presence and absence according to spatially and temporally varying probabilities of emergence/re-emergence (from absence to presence) and persistence (from presence to presence). These probabilities were assumed to follow a series of mixed multiple logistic regressions. When Zika was present, assuming that the cases follow a negative binomial distribution, we estimated the transmission intensity rate. Our results indicate that Zika emerged/re-emerged sooner and that transmission was intensified in municipalities that were more densely populated, at lower altitudes and/or with less vegetation cover. Warmer temperatures and less weekly-accumulated rain were also associated with Zika emergence. Zika cases persisted for longer in more densely populated areas with more cases reported in the previous week. Overall, population density, elevation, and temperature were identified as the main contributors to the first Zika epidemic in Colombia. We also estimated the probability of Zika presence by municipality and week, and the results suggest that the disease circulated undetected by the surveillance system on many occasions. Our results offer insights into priority areas for public health interventions against emerging and re-emerging Aedes-borne diseases.
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Affiliation(s)
- Laís Picinini Freitas
- Université de Montréal, École de Santé Publique, Montreal, H3N 1X9, Canada.
- Centre de Recherche en Santé Publique, Montreal, H3N 1X9, Canada.
| | - Dirk Douwes-Schultz
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, H3A 1G1, Canada.
| | - Alexandra M Schmidt
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, H3A 1G1, Canada
| | - Brayan Ávila Monsalve
- Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia, Faculty of Medicine, Villavicencio, 500003, Colombia
| | - Jorge Emilio Salazar Flórez
- Instituto Colombiano de Medicina Tropical, Universidad CES, Medellín, 055450, Colombia
- Infectious and Chronic Diseases Study Group (GEINCRO), San Martín University Foundation, Medellín, 050031, Colombia
| | - César García-Balaguera
- Universidad Cooperativa de Colombia, Faculty of Medicine, Villavicencio, 500003, Colombia
| | - Berta N Restrepo
- Instituto Colombiano de Medicina Tropical, Universidad CES, Medellín, 055450, Colombia
| | | | - Mabel Carabali
- Department of Epidemiology, Biostatistics and Occupational Health, McGill University, Montreal, H3A 1G1, Canada
| | - Kate Zinszer
- Université de Montréal, École de Santé Publique, Montreal, H3N 1X9, Canada
- Centre de Recherche en Santé Publique, Montreal, H3N 1X9, Canada
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de Souza WM, Weaver SC. Effects of climate change and human activities on vector-borne diseases. Nat Rev Microbiol 2024:10.1038/s41579-024-01026-0. [PMID: 38486116 DOI: 10.1038/s41579-024-01026-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 02/13/2024] [Indexed: 03/18/2024]
Abstract
Vector-borne diseases are transmitted by haematophagous arthropods (for example, mosquitoes, ticks and sandflies) to humans and wild and domestic animals, with the largest burden on global public health disproportionately affecting people in tropical and subtropical areas. Because vectors are ectothermic, climate and weather alterations (for example, temperature, rainfall and humidity) can affect their reproduction, survival, geographic distribution and, consequently, ability to transmit pathogens. However, the effects of climate change on vector-borne diseases can be multifaceted and complex, sometimes with ambiguous consequences. In this Review, we discuss the potential effects of climate change, weather and other anthropogenic factors, including land use, human mobility and behaviour, as possible contributors to the redistribution of vectors and spread of vector-borne diseases worldwide.
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Affiliation(s)
- William M de Souza
- Department of Microbiology, Immunology and Molecular Genetics, University of Kentucky, College of Medicine, Lexington, KY, USA
- World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA
- Institute for Human Infections and Immunity, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA
- Global Virus Network, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Scott C Weaver
- World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.
- Institute for Human Infections and Immunity, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.
- Global Virus Network, Baltimore, MD, USA.
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Roell Y, Pezzi L, Lozano-Parra A, Olson D, Messina J, Quandelacy T, Drexler JF, Brady O, Karimzadeh M, Jaenisch T. Assessing vulnerability for future Zika virus outbreaks using seroprevalence data and environmental suitability maps. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2024; 18:e0012017. [PMID: 38517912 PMCID: PMC10990225 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0012017] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/02/2023] [Revised: 04/03/2024] [Accepted: 02/20/2024] [Indexed: 03/24/2024] Open
Abstract
The 2015-17 Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas subsided faster than expected and evolving population immunity was postulated to be the main reason. Herd immunization is suggested to occur around 60-70% seroprevalence, depending on demographic density and climate suitability. However, herd immunity was only documented for a few cities in South America, meaning a substantial portion of the population might still be vulnerable to a future Zika virus outbreak. The aim of our study was to determine the vulnerability of populations to ZIKV by comparing the environmental suitability of ZIKV transmission to the observed seroprevalence, based on published studies. Using a systematic search, we collected seroprevalence and geospatial data for 119 unique locations from 37 studies. Extracting the environmental suitability at each location and converting to a hypothetical expected seroprevalence, we were able to determine the discrepancy between observed and expected. This discrepancy is an indicator of vulnerability and divided into three categories: high risk, low risk, and very low risk. The vulnerability was used to evaluate the level of risk that each location still has for a ZIKV outbreak to occur. Of the 119 unique locations, 69 locations (58%) fell within the high risk category, 47 locations (39%) fell within the low risk category, and 3 locations (3%) fell within the very low risk category. The considerable heterogeneity between environmental suitability and seroprevalence potentially leaves a large population vulnerable to future infection. Vulnerability seems to be especially pronounced at the fringes of the environmental suitability for ZIKV (e.g. Sao Paulo, Brazil). The discrepancies between observed and expected seroprevalence raise the question: "why did the ZIKV epidemic stop with large populations unaffected?". This lack of understanding also highlights that future ZIKV outbreaks currently cannot be predicted with confidence.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yannik Roell
- Center for Global Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Aurora, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Laura Pezzi
- National Reference Center for Arboviruses, Inserm-IRBA, Marseille, France
- Unité des Virus Émergents (UVE: Aix-Marseille Univ, Universitá di Corsica, IRD 190, Inserm 1207, IRBA), France
| | - Anyela Lozano-Parra
- Grupo de Epidemiología Clínica, Universidad Industrial de Santander, Bucaramanga, Colombia
| | - Daniel Olson
- Center for Global Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Aurora, Colorado, United States of America
- Division of Pediatric Infectious Diseases, University of Colorado School of Medicine, Aurora, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Jane Messina
- School of Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
- Oxford School of Global and Area Studies, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom
| | - Talia Quandelacy
- Department of Epidemiology, University of Colorado, Aurora, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Jan Felix Drexler
- Institute of Virology, Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, corporate member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
| | - Oliver Brady
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom
| | - Morteza Karimzadeh
- Department of Geography, University of Colorado, Boulder, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Thomas Jaenisch
- Center for Global Health, Colorado School of Public Health, University of Colorado, Aurora, Colorado, United States of America
- Heidelberg Institute of Global Health (HIGH), Heidelberg University Hospital, Heidelberg, Germany
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Hungwe FTT, Laycock KM, Ntereke TD, Mabaka R, Paganotti GM. A historical perspective on arboviruses of public health interest in Southern Africa. Pathog Glob Health 2024; 118:131-159. [PMID: 38082563 PMCID: PMC11141323 DOI: 10.1080/20477724.2023.2290375] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 05/31/2024] Open
Abstract
Arboviruses are an existing and expanding threat globally, with the potential for causing devastating health and socioeconomic impacts. Mitigating this threat necessitates a One Health approach that integrates vector surveillance, rapid disease detection, and innovative prevention and control measures. In Southern Africa, limited data on the epidemiology of arboviruses, their vectors, and their hosts prevent an effective response. We reviewed the current knowledge on arboviruses in Southern Africa and identified opportunities for further research. A literature search was conducted to identify studies published on arboviruses in 10 tropical and temperate countries of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) from 1900 onward. We identified 280 studies, half (51.1%) originating from South Africa, that described 31 arboviral species, their vectors, and their clinical effects on hosts reported in the region. Arboviral research flourished in the SADC in the mid-20th century but then declined, before reemerging in the last two decades. Recent research consists largely of case reports describing outbreaks. Historical vector surveillance and serosurveys from the mid-20th century suggest that arboviruses are plentiful across Southern Africa, but large gaps remain in the current understanding of arboviral distribution, transmission dynamics, and public health impact.
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Affiliation(s)
- Faith T. T. Hungwe
- School of Engineering Sciences in Chemistry, Biotechnology and Health, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Molecular Medicine, Karolinska Institute, Stockholm, Sweden
- Department of Biochemistry and Biophysics, Stockholm University, Stockholm, Sweden
| | - Katherine M. Laycock
- The Ryan White Center for Pediatric Infectious Disease and Global Health, Department of Pediatrics, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis, IN, USA
| | | | - Rorisang Mabaka
- School of Allied Health Sciences, Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana
| | - Giacomo M. Paganotti
- Botswana-University of Pennsylvania Partnership, Gaborone, Botswana
- Division of Infectious Diseases, Perelman School of Medicine, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA, USA
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, University of Botswana, Gaborone, Botswana
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Ahmed S, Sultana S, Kundu S, Alam SS, Hossan T, Islam MA. Global Prevalence of Zika and Chikungunya Coinfection: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. Diseases 2024; 12:31. [PMID: 38391778 PMCID: PMC10888207 DOI: 10.3390/diseases12020031] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/16/2023] [Revised: 01/26/2024] [Accepted: 01/29/2024] [Indexed: 02/24/2024] Open
Abstract
Zika virus (ZIKV) and chikungunya virus (CHIKV) are arthropod-borne viruses with significant pathogenicity, posing a substantial health and economic burden on a global scale. Moreover, ZIKV-CHIKV coinfection imposes additional therapeutic challenges as there is no specific treatment for ZIKV or CHIKV infection. While a growing number of studies have documented the ZIKV-CHIKV coinfection, there is currently a lack of conclusive reports on this coinfection. Therefore, we performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the true statistics of ZIKV-CHIKV coinfection in the global human population. Relevant studies were searched for in PubMed, Scopus, and Google Scholar without limitation in terms of language or publication date. A total of 33 studies containing 41,460 participants were included in this meta-analysis. The study protocol was registered with PROSPERO under the registration number CRD42020176409. The pooled prevalence and confidence intervals of ZIKV-CHIKV coinfection were computed using a random-effects model. The study estimated a combined global prevalence rate of 1.0% [95% CI: 0.7-1.2] for the occurrence of ZIKV-CHIKV coinfection. The region of North America (Mexico, Haiti, and Nicaragua) and the country of Haiti demonstrated maximum prevalence rates of 2.8% [95% CI: 1.5-4.1] and 3.5% [95% CI: 0.2-6.8], respectively. Moreover, the prevalence of coinfection was found to be higher in the paediatric group (2.1% [95% CI: 0.0-4.2]) in comparison with the adult group (0.7% [95% CI: 0.2-1.1]). These findings suggest that the occurrence of ZIKV-CHIKV coinfection varies geographically and by age group. The results of this meta-analysis will guide future investigations seeking to understand the underlying reasons for these variations and the causes of coinfection and to develop targeted prevention and control strategies.
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Affiliation(s)
- Saleh Ahmed
- Center for Biotechnology and Genomic Medicine, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA 30912, USA
| | - Shabiha Sultana
- Department of Cellular Biology and Anatomy, Medical College of Georgia, Augusta University, Augusta, GA 30912, USA
| | - Shoumik Kundu
- Department of Chemistry and Biochemistry, Texas Tech University, 2500 Broadway St., Lubbock, TX 79409, USA
| | - Sayeda Sadia Alam
- Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka 1342, Bangladesh
| | - Tareq Hossan
- Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Jahangirnagar University, Savar, Dhaka 1342, Bangladesh
- Department of Internal Medicine, Division of Oncology, Washington University School of Medicine in St. Louis, St. Louis, MO 63110, USA
| | - Md Asiful Islam
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Global Women's Health, Institute of Metabolism and Systems Research, College of Medical and Dental Sciences, University of Birmingham, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK
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6
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Gibb R, Colón-González FJ, Lan PT, Huong PT, Nam VS, Duoc VT, Hung DT, Dong NT, Chien VC, Trang LTT, Kien Quoc D, Hoa TM, Tai NH, Hang TT, Tsarouchi G, Ainscoe E, Harpham Q, Hofmann B, Lumbroso D, Brady OJ, Lowe R. Interactions between climate change, urban infrastructure and mobility are driving dengue emergence in Vietnam. Nat Commun 2023; 14:8179. [PMID: 38081831 PMCID: PMC10713571 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-43954-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/24/2023] [Accepted: 11/24/2023] [Indexed: 12/18/2023] Open
Abstract
Dengue is expanding globally, but how dengue emergence is shaped locally by interactions between climatic and socio-environmental factors is not well understood. Here, we investigate the drivers of dengue incidence and emergence in Vietnam, through analysing 23 years of district-level case data spanning a period of significant socioeconomic change (1998-2020). We show that urban infrastructure factors (sanitation, water supply, long-term urban growth) predict local spatial patterns of dengue incidence, while human mobility is a more influential driver in subtropical northern regions than the endemic south. Temperature is the dominant factor shaping dengue's distribution and dynamics, and using long-term reanalysis temperature data we show that warming since 1950 has expanded transmission risk throughout Vietnam, and most strongly in current dengue emergence hotspots (e.g., southern central regions, Ha Noi). In contrast, effects of hydrometeorology are complex, multi-scalar and dependent on local context: risk increases under either short-term precipitation excess or long-term drought, but improvements in water supply mitigate drought-associated risks except under extreme conditions. Our findings challenge the assumption that dengue is an urban disease, instead suggesting that incidence peaks in transitional landscapes with intermediate infrastructure provision, and provide evidence that interactions between recent climate change and mobility are contributing to dengue's expansion throughout Vietnam.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rory Gibb
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
- Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution & Environment, University College London, London, UK.
| | - Felipe J Colón-González
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Data for Science and Health, Wellcome Trust, London, UK
| | - Phan Trong Lan
- General Department of Preventative Medicine (GDPM), Ministry of Health, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Phan Thi Huong
- General Department of Preventative Medicine (GDPM), Ministry of Health, Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Vu Sinh Nam
- National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology (NIHE), Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Vu Trong Duoc
- National Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology (NIHE), Hanoi, Vietnam
| | - Do Thai Hung
- Pasteur Institute Nha Trang, Nha Trang, Khanh Hoa Province, Vietnam
| | | | - Vien Chinh Chien
- Tay Nguyen Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology (TIHE), Buon Ma Thuot, Dak Lak Province, Vietnam
| | - Ly Thi Thuy Trang
- Tay Nguyen Institute of Hygiene and Epidemiology (TIHE), Buon Ma Thuot, Dak Lak Province, Vietnam
| | - Do Kien Quoc
- Pasteur Institute Ho Chi Minh City, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
| | - Tran Minh Hoa
- Center for Disease Control, Dong Nai Province, Vietnam
| | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | - Oliver J Brady
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Rachel Lowe
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology & Dynamics, Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre for Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Centre on Climate Change and Planetary Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
- Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain
- Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies (ICREA), Barcelona, Spain
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Renard A, Pérez Lombardini F, Pacheco Zapata M, Porphyre T, Bento A, Suzán G, Roiz D, Roche B, Arnal A. Interaction of Human Behavioral Factors Shapes the Transmission of Arboviruses by Aedes and Culex Mosquitoes. Pathogens 2023; 12:1421. [PMID: 38133304 PMCID: PMC10746986 DOI: 10.3390/pathogens12121421] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/27/2023] [Revised: 11/23/2023] [Accepted: 12/04/2023] [Indexed: 12/23/2023] Open
Abstract
Arboviruses, i.e., viruses transmitted by blood-sucking arthropods, trigger significant global epidemics. Over the past 20 years, the frequency of the (re-)emergence of these pathogens, particularly those transmitted by Aedes and Culex mosquitoes, has dramatically increased. Therefore, understanding how human behavior is modulating population exposure to these viruses is of particular importance. This synthesis explores human behavioral factors driving human exposure to arboviruses, focusing on household surroundings, socio-economic status, human activities, and demographic factors. Household surroundings, such as the lack of water access, greatly influence the risk of arbovirus exposure by promoting mosquito breeding in stagnant water bodies. Socio-economic status, such as low income or low education, is correlated to an increased incidence of arboviral infections and exposure. Human activities, particularly those practiced outdoors, as well as geographical proximity to livestock rearing or crop cultivation, inadvertently provide favorable breeding environments for mosquito species, escalating the risk of virus exposure. However, the effects of demographic factors like age and gender can vary widely through space and time. While climate and environmental factors crucially impact vector development and viral replication, household surroundings, socio-economic status, human activities, and demographic factors are key drivers of arbovirus exposure. This article highlights that human behavior creates a complex interplay of factors influencing the risk of mosquito-borne virus exposure, operating at different temporal and spatial scales. To increase awareness among human populations, we must improve our understanding of these complex factors.
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Affiliation(s)
- Aubane Renard
- Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs: Ecologie, Génétique, Evolution et Contrôle (MIVEGEC), Institut de Recherche Pour le Développement (IRD), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Montpellier, 34394 Montpellier, France; (A.R.); (D.R.); (B.R.)
| | - Fernanda Pérez Lombardini
- Fauna Silvestre y Animales de Laboratorio, Departamento de Etología, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad de México 04510, Mexico; (F.P.L.); (M.P.Z.); (G.S.)
- International Joint Laboratory IRD/UNAM ELDORADO (Ecosystem, Biological Diversity, Habitat Modifications, and Risk of Emerging Pathogens and Diseases in Mexico), Merida 97205, Mexico
| | - Mitsuri Pacheco Zapata
- Fauna Silvestre y Animales de Laboratorio, Departamento de Etología, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad de México 04510, Mexico; (F.P.L.); (M.P.Z.); (G.S.)
- International Joint Laboratory IRD/UNAM ELDORADO (Ecosystem, Biological Diversity, Habitat Modifications, and Risk of Emerging Pathogens and Diseases in Mexico), Merida 97205, Mexico
| | - Thibaud Porphyre
- Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Évolutive, VetAgro Sup, Campus Vétérinaire de Lyon, 69280 Marcy-l’Etoile, France;
| | - Ana Bento
- Department of Public and Ecosystem Health, College of Veterinary Medicine, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA;
| | - Gerardo Suzán
- Fauna Silvestre y Animales de Laboratorio, Departamento de Etología, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad de México 04510, Mexico; (F.P.L.); (M.P.Z.); (G.S.)
- International Joint Laboratory IRD/UNAM ELDORADO (Ecosystem, Biological Diversity, Habitat Modifications, and Risk of Emerging Pathogens and Diseases in Mexico), Merida 97205, Mexico
| | - David Roiz
- Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs: Ecologie, Génétique, Evolution et Contrôle (MIVEGEC), Institut de Recherche Pour le Développement (IRD), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Montpellier, 34394 Montpellier, France; (A.R.); (D.R.); (B.R.)
- International Joint Laboratory IRD/UNAM ELDORADO (Ecosystem, Biological Diversity, Habitat Modifications, and Risk of Emerging Pathogens and Diseases in Mexico), Merida 97205, Mexico
| | - Benjamin Roche
- Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs: Ecologie, Génétique, Evolution et Contrôle (MIVEGEC), Institut de Recherche Pour le Développement (IRD), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Montpellier, 34394 Montpellier, France; (A.R.); (D.R.); (B.R.)
- Fauna Silvestre y Animales de Laboratorio, Departamento de Etología, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad de México 04510, Mexico; (F.P.L.); (M.P.Z.); (G.S.)
- International Joint Laboratory IRD/UNAM ELDORADO (Ecosystem, Biological Diversity, Habitat Modifications, and Risk of Emerging Pathogens and Diseases in Mexico), Merida 97205, Mexico
| | - Audrey Arnal
- Maladies Infectieuses et Vecteurs: Ecologie, Génétique, Evolution et Contrôle (MIVEGEC), Institut de Recherche Pour le Développement (IRD), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Montpellier, 34394 Montpellier, France; (A.R.); (D.R.); (B.R.)
- Fauna Silvestre y Animales de Laboratorio, Departamento de Etología, Facultad de Medicina Veterinaria y Zootecnia, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México (UNAM), Ciudad de México 04510, Mexico; (F.P.L.); (M.P.Z.); (G.S.)
- International Joint Laboratory IRD/UNAM ELDORADO (Ecosystem, Biological Diversity, Habitat Modifications, and Risk of Emerging Pathogens and Diseases in Mexico), Merida 97205, Mexico
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8
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Hsu JY, Hung CC, Tsou TP, Chen WC. Epidemiology and risk factors of Japanese encephalitis in Taiwan, 2010-2022. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2023; 17:e0011421. [PMID: 37782654 PMCID: PMC10569588 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011421] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/29/2023] [Revised: 10/12/2023] [Accepted: 09/24/2023] [Indexed: 10/04/2023] Open
Abstract
INTRODUCTION Taiwan introduced a two-dose inactivated Japanese encephalitis (JE) mouse brain-derived (JE-MB) vaccine into routine childhood immunization in 1968, with booster vaccination implemented in 1974 and 1983. In 2017, JE-MB vaccine was replaced by a two-dose live-attenuated chimeric vaccine (JE-CV). After implementation of JE vaccination programs, JE cases have shifted from children to adults. In this study, we described the JE epidemiology and identify high-risk groups to further inform vaccine policy. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We extracted data from Taiwan's notifiable disease surveillance database, vital statistics, and employment statistics from 2010 to 2022. Diagnosis of JE was confirmed by JE seroconversion, a four-fold increase in virus-specific antibodies, a positive JE viral nucleic-acid test, or JE virus isolation. From 2010 to 2022, a total of 313 cases of JE were diagnosed, resulting in an overall incidence rate of 0.10 cases per 100,000 person-years and a mortality rate of 0.006 per 100,000 population per year. Among these patients, 64% were male, and the median age was 51 years (range 0-82). Compared with people born in or after 1976 (vaccinated with four doses of JE-MB vaccine or two doses of JE-CV), those born in or before 1962 (unvaccinated) and those born during 1963-1975 (vaccinated with two or three doses of JE-MB vaccine) had a 4.2-fold (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.0-5.7) and 5.9-fold (95% CI 4.3-8.1) higher risk of JE, respectively. The relative risk of working in agriculture, forestry, fishing, or animal husbandry, compared to other occupations, was 5.0 (95% CI 3.5-7.0). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE In Taiwan, individuals born before 1976 and those employed in agriculture, forestry, fishing, or animal husbandry had a higher risk of JE. We recommend JE vaccination for people in these high-risk groups who have not been fully vaccinated or have an unknown vaccination history.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jen-Yu Hsu
- Department of Occupational Medicine and Clinical Toxicology, Taipei Veterans General Hospital, Taipei, Taiwan
- Centers for Disease Control, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Taipei, Taiwan
- School of Medicine, College of Medicine, National Yang Ming Chiao Tung University, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Chien-Ching Hung
- Department of Tropical Medicine and Parasitology, National Taiwan University College of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital and National Taiwan University College of Medicine, Taipei, Taiwan
- Department of Internal Medicine, National Taiwan University Hospital Yunlin Branch, Yunlin, Taiwan
| | - Tsung-Pei Tsou
- Centers for Disease Control, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Taipei, Taiwan
| | - Wan-Chin Chen
- Centers for Disease Control, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Taipei, Taiwan
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9
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Xavier J, Alcantara LCJ, Fonseca V, Lima M, Castro E, Fritsch H, Oliveira C, Guimarães N, Adelino T, Evaristo M, Rodrigues ES, Santos EV, de La-Roque D, de Moraes L, Tosta S, Neto A, Rosewell A, Mendonça AF, Leite A, Vasconcelos A, Silva de Mello AL, Vasconcelos B, Montalbano CA, Zanluca C, Freitas C, de Albuquerque CFC, Duarte Dos Santos CN, Santos CS, Dos Santos CA, Gonçalves CCM, Teixeira D, Neto DFL, Cabral D, de Oliveira EC, Noia Maciel EL, Pereira FM, Iani F, de Carvalho FP, Andrade G, Bezerra G, de Castro Lichs GG, Pereira GC, Barroso H, Franz HCF, Ferreira H, Gomes I, Riediger IN, Rodrigues I, de Siqueira IC, Silva J, Rico JM, Lima J, Abrantes J, do Nascimento JPM, Wasserheit JN, Pastor J, de Magalhães JJF, Luz KG, Lima Neto LG, Frutuoso LCV, da Silva LB, Sena L, de Sousa LAF, Pereira LA, Demarchi L, Câmara MCB, Astete MG, Almiron M, Lima M, Umaki Zardin MCS, Presibella MM, Falcão MB, Gale M, Freire N, Marques N, de Moura NFO, Almeida Da Silva PE, Rabinowitz P, da Cunha RV, Trinta KS, do Carmo Said RF, Kato R, Stabeli R, de Jesus R, Hans Santos R, Kashima S, Slavov SN, Andrade T, Rocha T, Carneiro T, Nardy V, da Silva V, Carvalho WG, Van Voorhis WC, Araujo WN, de Filippis AMB, Giovanetti M. Increased interregional virus exchange and nucleotide diversity outline the expansion of chikungunya virus in Brazil. Nat Commun 2023; 14:4413. [PMID: 37479700 PMCID: PMC10362057 DOI: 10.1038/s41467-023-40099-y] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/20/2023] [Accepted: 07/12/2023] [Indexed: 07/23/2023] Open
Abstract
The emergence and reemergence of mosquito-borne diseases in Brazil such as yellow fever, zika, chikungunya, and dengue have had serious impacts on public health. Concerns have been raised due to the rapid dissemination of the chikungunya virus across the country since its first detection in 2014 in Northeast Brazil. In this work, we carried out on-site training activities in genomic surveillance in partnership with the National Network of Public Health Laboratories that have led to the generation of 422 chikungunya virus genomes from 12 Brazilian states over the past two years (2021-2022), a period that has seen more than 312 thousand chikungunya fever cases reported in the country. These genomes increased the amount of available data and allowed a more comprehensive characterization of the dispersal dynamics of the chikungunya virus East-Central-South-African lineage in Brazil. Tree branching patterns revealed the emergence and expansion of two distinct subclades. Phylogeographic analysis indicated that the northeast region has been the leading hub of virus spread towards other regions. Increased frequency of C > T transitions among the new genomes suggested that host restriction factors from the immune system such as ADAR and AID/APOBEC deaminases might be driving the genetic diversity of the chikungunya virus in Brazil.
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Affiliation(s)
- Joilson Xavier
- Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Luiz Carlos Junior Alcantara
- Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
- Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
| | - Vagner Fonseca
- Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde, Organização Mundial da Saúde, Brasília, Brazil
| | - Mauricio Lima
- Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública de Minas Gerais, Fundação Ezequiel Dias, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Emerson Castro
- Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública de Minas Gerais, Fundação Ezequiel Dias, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Hegger Fritsch
- Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Carla Oliveira
- Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Natalia Guimarães
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública de Minas Gerais, Fundação Ezequiel Dias, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Talita Adelino
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública de Minas Gerais, Fundação Ezequiel Dias, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | - Laise de Moraes
- Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Salvador, Brazil
| | - Stephane Tosta
- Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
- Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Adelino Neto
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública do Piaui, Piauí, Brazil
| | - Alexander Rosewell
- Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde, Organização Mundial da Saúde, Brasília, Brazil
| | | | - Anderson Leite
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública de Alagoas, Maceió, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | - Camila Zanluca
- Instituto Carlos Chagas, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Curitiba, Brazil
| | - Carla Freitas
- Coordenação Geral dos Laboratórios de Saúde Pública, Ministério da Saúde, Brasília, Brazil
| | | | | | - Cleiton S Santos
- Instituto Gonçalo Moniz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Salvador, Brazil
| | | | | | - Dalane Teixeira
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública da Paraíba, João Pessoa, Brazil
| | - Daniel F L Neto
- Coordenação Geral dos Laboratórios de Saúde Pública, Ministério da Saúde, Brasília, Brazil
| | - Diego Cabral
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública de Pernambuco, Natal, Brazil
| | | | - Ethel L Noia Maciel
- Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde e Ambiente, Ministério da Saúde, Brasília, Brazil
| | | | - Felipe Iani
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública de Minas Gerais, Fundação Ezequiel Dias, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | | | | | - Gabriela Bezerra
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública de Sergipe, Aracaju, Brazil
| | | | - Glauco Carvalho Pereira
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública de Minas Gerais, Fundação Ezequiel Dias, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Haline Barroso
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública da Paraíba, João Pessoa, Brazil
| | | | - Hivylla Ferreira
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública do Maranhão, São Luís, Brazil
| | - Iago Gomes
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil
| | | | | | | | - Jacilane Silva
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública de Pernambuco, Natal, Brazil
| | | | - Jaqueline Lima
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública da Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
| | - Jayra Abrantes
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil
| | | | - Judith N Wasserheit
- Department of Global Health and Medicine, University of Washington, Washington, USA
| | - Julia Pastor
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública de Pernambuco, Natal, Brazil
| | - Jurandy J F de Magalhães
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública de Pernambuco, Natal, Brazil
- Universidade de Pernambuco, Serra Talhada, Brazil
| | | | | | - Livia C V Frutuoso
- Coordenação Geral das Arboviroses, Ministério da Saúde, Brasília, Brazil
| | | | - Ludmila Sena
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública de Sergipe, Aracaju, Brazil
| | | | | | - Luiz Demarchi
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública do Mato Grosso do Sul, Campo Grande, Brazil
| | - Magaly C B Câmara
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil
| | | | | | - Maricelia Lima
- Universidade Estadual de Feira de Santana, Feira de Santana, Brazil
| | | | | | - Melissa B Falcão
- Secretaria de Saúde de Feira de Santana, Feira de Santana, Brazil
| | - Michael Gale
- Department of Immunology, University of Washington, Washington, USA
| | - Naishe Freire
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública de Pernambuco, Natal, Brazil
| | - Nelson Marques
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública do Paraná, Paraná, Brazil
| | - Noely F O de Moura
- Coordenação Geral das Arboviroses, Ministério da Saúde, Brasília, Brazil
| | | | - Peter Rabinowitz
- Department of Environmental and Occupational Health Sciences, University of Washington, Washington, USA
| | - Rivaldo V da Cunha
- Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Instituto de Tecnologia em Imunobiológicos, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | - Karen S Trinta
- Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Instituto de Tecnologia em Imunobiológicos, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
| | | | - Rodrigo Kato
- Coordenação Geral dos Laboratórios de Saúde Pública, Ministério da Saúde, Brasília, Brazil
| | - Rodrigo Stabeli
- Organização Pan-Americana da Saúde, Organização Mundial da Saúde, Brasília, Brazil
| | - Ronaldo de Jesus
- Coordenação Geral dos Laboratórios de Saúde Pública, Ministério da Saúde, Brasília, Brazil
| | | | - Simone Kashima
- Fundação Hemocentro de Ribeirão Preto, Ribeirão Preto, Brazil
| | - Svetoslav N Slavov
- Fundação Hemocentro de Ribeirão Preto, Ribeirão Preto, Brazil
- Center for Research Development, CDC, Butantan Institute, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Tamires Andrade
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública da Paraíba, João Pessoa, Brazil
| | - Themis Rocha
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública do Rio Grande do Norte, Natal, Brazil
| | - Thiago Carneiro
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública da Paraíba, João Pessoa, Brazil
| | - Vanessa Nardy
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública da Bahia, Salvador, Brazil
| | | | | | | | | | | | - Marta Giovanetti
- Instituto René Rachou, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
- Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil.
- Sciences and Technologies for Sustainable Development and One Health, University of Campus Bio-Medico, Rome, Italy.
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10
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Braga C, Martelli CMT, Souza WV, Luna CF, Albuquerque MDFPM, Mariz CA, Morais CNL, Brito CAA, Melo CFCA, Lins RD, Drexler JF, Jaenisch T, Marques ETA, Viana IFT. Seroprevalence of Dengue, Chikungunya and Zika at the epicenter of the congenital microcephaly epidemic in Northeast Brazil: A population-based survey. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 2023; 17:e0011270. [PMID: 37399197 DOI: 10.1371/journal.pntd.0011270] [Citation(s) in RCA: 2] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/27/2023] [Accepted: 06/03/2023] [Indexed: 07/05/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND The four Dengue viruses (DENV) serotypes were re-introduced in Brazil's Northeast region in a couple of decades, between 1980's and 2010's, where the DENV1 was the first detected serotype and DENV4 the latest. Zika (ZIKV) and Chikungunya (CHIKV) viruses were introduced in Recife around 2014 and led to large outbreaks in 2015 and 2016, respectively. However, the true extent of the ZIKV and CHIKV outbreaks, as well as the risk factors associated with exposure to these viruses remain vague. METHODS We conducted a stratified multistage household serosurvey among residents aged between 5 and 65 years in the city of Recife, Northeast Brazil, from August 2018 to February 2019. The city neighborhoods were stratified and divided into high, intermediate, and low socioeconomic strata (SES). Previous ZIKV, DENV and CHIKV infections were detected by IgG-based enzyme linked immunosorbent assays (ELISA). Recent ZIKV and CHIKV infections were assessed through IgG3 and IgM ELISA, respectively. Design-adjusted seroprevalence were estimated by age group, sex, and SES. The ZIKV seroprevalence was adjusted to account for the cross-reactivity with dengue. Individual and household-related risk factors were analyzed through regression models to calculate the force of infection. Odds Ratio (OR) were estimated as measure of effect. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS A total of 2,070 residents' samples were collected and analyzed. The force of viral infection for high SES were lower as compared to low and intermediate SES. DENV seroprevalence was 88.7% (CI95%:87.0-90.4), and ranged from 81.2% (CI95%:76.9-85.6) in the high SES to 90.7% (CI95%:88.3-93.2) in the low SES. The overall adjusted ZIKV seroprevalence was 34.6% (CI95%:20.0-50.9), and ranged from 47.4% (CI95%:31.8-61.5) in the low SES to 23.4% (CI95%:12.2-33.8) in the high SES. The overall CHIKV seroprevalence was 35.7% (CI95%:32.6-38.9), and ranged from 38.6% (CI95%:33.6-43.6) in the low SES to 22.3% (CI95%:15.8-28.8) in the high SES. Surprisingly, ZIKV seroprevalence rapidly increased with age in the low and intermediate SES, while exhibited only a small increase with age in high SES. CHIKV seroprevalence according to age was stable in all SES. The prevalence of serological markers of ZIKV and CHIKV recent infections were 1.5% (CI95%:0.1-3.7) and 3.5% (CI95%:2.7-4.2), respectively. CONCLUSIONS Our results confirmed continued DENV transmission and intense ZIKV and CHIKV transmission during the 2015/2016 epidemics followed by ongoing low-level transmission. The study also highlights that a significant proportion of the population is still susceptible to be infected by ZIKV and CHIKV. The reasons underlying a ceasing of the ZIKV epidemic in 2017/18 and the impact of antibody decay in susceptibility to future DENV and ZIKV infections may be related to the interplay between disease transmission mechanism and actual exposure in the different SES.
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Affiliation(s)
- Cynthia Braga
- Department of Parasitology, Institute Aggeu Magalhães, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
| | - Celina M T Martelli
- Department of Public Health, Institute Aggeu Magalhães, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
| | - Wayner V Souza
- Department of Public Health, Institute Aggeu Magalhães, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
| | - Carlos F Luna
- Department of Public Health, Institute Aggeu Magalhães, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
| | | | - Carolline A Mariz
- Department of Parasitology, Institute Aggeu Magalhães, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
| | - Clarice N L Morais
- Department of Virology, Institute Aggeu Magalhães, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
| | - Carlos A A Brito
- Department of Clinical Medicine, Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
| | | | - Roberto D Lins
- Department of Virology, Institute Aggeu Magalhães, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
| | - Jan Felix Drexler
- Charité-Universitätsmedizin Berlin, Corporate Member of Freie Universität Berlin and Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Institute of Virology, Berlin, Germany
- German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), associated partner site Charité, Berlin, Germany
| | - Thomas Jaenisch
- Section Clinical Tropical Medicine, Department of Infectious Diseases, Heidelberg University Hospital, Germany
- German Centre for Infection Research (DZIF), Heidelberg Site, Heidelberg, Germany
- Center for Global Health, Colorado School of Public Health, Aurora, Colorado, United States of America
| | - Ernesto T A Marques
- Department of Virology, Institute Aggeu Magalhães, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
- Department of Infectious Diseases and Microbiology, University of Pittsburgh, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, United States of America
| | - Isabelle F T Viana
- Department of Virology, Institute Aggeu Magalhães, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Recife, Pernambuco, Brazil
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11
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Peña-García VH, Luvall JC, Christofferson RC. Arbovirus Transmission Predictions Are Affected by Both Temperature Data Source and Modeling Methodologies across Cities in Colombia. Microorganisms 2023; 11:1249. [PMID: 37317223 DOI: 10.3390/microorganisms11051249] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 02/10/2023] [Revised: 04/12/2023] [Accepted: 05/04/2023] [Indexed: 06/16/2023] Open
Abstract
Weather variables has been described as major drivers of vector proliferation and arbovirus transmission. Among them, temperature has consistently been found to be impactful in transmission dynamics, and models that incorporate temperature have been widely used to evaluate and forecast transmission or arboviruses like dengue, zika, or chikungunya virus. Further, there is growing evidence of the importance of micro-environmental temperatures in driving transmission of Aedes aegypti-borne viruses, as these mosquitoes tend to live within domiciles. Yet there is still a considerable gap in our understanding of how accounting for micro-environmental temperatures in models varies from the use of other widely-used, macro-level temperature measures. This effort combines field-collected data of both indoor and outdoor household associated temperatures and weather station temperature data from three Colombian cities to describe the relationship between the measures representing temperature at the micro- and macro-levels. These data indicate that weather station data may not accurately capture the temperature profiles of indoor micro-environments. However, using these data sources, the basic reproductive number for arboviruses was calculated by means of three modeling efforts to investigate whether temperature measure differences translated to differential transmission predictions. Across all three cities, it was determined that the modeling method was more often impactful rather than the temperature data-source, though no consistent pattern was immediately clear. This suggests that temperature data sources and modeling methods are important for precision in arbovirus transmission predictions, and more studies are needed to parse out this complex interaction.
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Affiliation(s)
- Víctor Hugo Peña-García
- Programa de Estudio y Control de Enfermedades Tropicales (PECET), Universidad de Antioquia, Medellín 50010, Colombia
| | - Jeffrey C Luvall
- Marshall Space Flight Center, National Aeronautics Space Administration (NASA), Huntsville, AL 35824, USA
| | - Rebecca C Christofferson
- Department of Pathobiological Sciences, School of Veterinary Medicine, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70803, USA
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12
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de Souza WM, de Lima STS, Simões Mello LM, Candido DS, Buss L, Whittaker C, Claro IM, Chandradeva N, Granja F, de Jesus R, Lemos PS, Toledo-Teixeira DA, Barbosa PP, Firmino ACL, Amorim MR, Duarte LMF, Pessoa IB, Forato J, Vasconcelos IL, Maximo ACBM, Araújo ELL, Perdigão Mello L, Sabino EC, Proença-Módena JL, Faria NR, Weaver SC. Spatiotemporal dynamics and recurrence of chikungunya virus in Brazil: an epidemiological study. THE LANCET. MICROBE 2023; 4:e319-e329. [PMID: 37031687 PMCID: PMC10281060 DOI: 10.1016/s2666-5247(23)00033-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 20] [Impact Index Per Article: 20.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/18/2022] [Revised: 12/13/2022] [Accepted: 01/27/2023] [Indexed: 04/09/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND Chikungunya virus (CHIKV) is an Aedes mosquito-borne virus that has caused large epidemics linked to acute, chronic, and severe clinical outcomes. Currently, Brazil has the highest number of chikungunya cases in the Americas. We aimed to investigate the spatiotemporal dynamics and recurrence pattern of chikungunya in Brazil since its introduction in 2013. METHODS In this epidemiological study, we used CHIKV genomic sequencing data, CHIKV vector information, and aggregate clinical data on chikungunya cases from Brazil. The genomic data comprised 241 Brazilian CHIKV genome sequences from GenBank (n=180) and the 2022 CHIKV outbreak in Ceará state (n=61). The vector data (Breteau index and House index) were obtained from the Brazilian Ministry of Health for all 184 municipalities in Ceará state and 116 municipalities in Tocantins state in 2022. Epidemiological data on laboratory-confirmed cases of chikungunya between 2013 and 2022 were obtained from the Brazilian Ministry of Health and Laboratory of Public Health of Ceará. We assessed the spatiotemporal dynamics of chikungunya in Brazil via time series, mapping, age-sex distribution, cumulative case-fatality, linear correlation, logistic regression, and phylogenetic analyses. FINDINGS Between March 3, 2013, and June 4, 2022, 253 545 laboratory-confirmed chikungunya cases were reported in 3316 (59·5%) of 5570 municipalities, mainly distributed in seven epidemic waves from 2016 to 2022. To date, Ceará in the northeast has been the most affected state, with 77 418 cases during the two largest epidemic waves in 2016 and 2017 and the third wave in 2022. From 2016 to 2022 in Ceará, the odds of being CHIKV-positive were higher in females than in males (odds ratio 0·87, 95% CI 0·85-0·89, p<0·0001), and the cumulative case-fatality ratio was 1·3 deaths per 1000 cases. Chikungunya recurrences in the states of Ceará, Tocantins (recurrence in 2022), and Pernambuco (recurrence in 2021) were limited to municipalities with few or no previously reported cases in the previous epidemic waves. The recurrence of chikungunya in Ceará in 2022 was associated with a new East-Central-South-African lineage. Population density metrics of the main CHIKV vector in Brazil, Aedes aegypti, were not correlated spatially with locations of chikungunya recurrence in Ceará and Tocantins. INTERPRETATION Spatial heterogeneity of CHIKV spread and population immunity might explain the recurrence pattern of chikungunya in Brazil. These results can be used to inform public health interventions to prevent future chikungunya epidemic waves in urban settings. FUNDING Global Virus Network, Burroughs Wellcome Fund, Wellcome Trust, US National Institutes of Health, São Paulo Research Foundation, Brazil Ministry of Education, UK Medical Research Council, Brazilian National Council for Scientific and Technological Development, and UK Royal Society. TRANSLATION For the Portuguese translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.
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Affiliation(s)
- William M de Souza
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA; World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA.
| | - Shirlene T S de Lima
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública do Ceará, Fortaleza, Brazil; Laboratory of Emerging Viruses, Department of Genetics, Microbiology and Immunology, Institute of Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil
| | | | - Darlan S Candido
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Lewis Buss
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Charles Whittaker
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; The Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Ingra M Claro
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Nilani Chandradeva
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK
| | - Fabiana Granja
- Laboratory of Emerging Viruses, Department of Genetics, Microbiology and Immunology, Institute of Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil; Biodiversity Research Centre, Federal University of Roraima, Boa Vista, Brazil
| | - Ronaldo de Jesus
- Ministério da Saúde, Departamento de Articulação Estratégica de Vigilância em Saúde, Brasilia, Brazil; Instituto de Ciências Biológicas, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Brazil
| | - Poliana S Lemos
- Ministério da Saúde, Departamento de Articulação Estratégica de Vigilância em Saúde, Brasilia, Brazil
| | - Daniel A Toledo-Teixeira
- Laboratory of Emerging Viruses, Department of Genetics, Microbiology and Immunology, Institute of Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil
| | - Priscilla P Barbosa
- Laboratory of Emerging Viruses, Department of Genetics, Microbiology and Immunology, Institute of Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil
| | | | - Mariene R Amorim
- Laboratory of Emerging Viruses, Department of Genetics, Microbiology and Immunology, Institute of Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil
| | | | - Ivan B Pessoa
- Laboratório Central de Saúde Pública do Ceará, Fortaleza, Brazil
| | - Julia Forato
- Laboratory of Emerging Viruses, Department of Genetics, Microbiology and Immunology, Institute of Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil
| | | | | | - Emerson L L Araújo
- Ministério da Saúde, Departamento de Articulação Estratégica de Vigilância em Saúde, Brasilia, Brazil
| | | | - Ester C Sabino
- Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil; Departamento de Moléstias Infecciosas e Parasitárias, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - José Luiz Proença-Módena
- Laboratory of Emerging Viruses, Department of Genetics, Microbiology and Immunology, Institute of Biology, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil; Hub of Global Health, University of Campinas, Campinas, Brazil
| | - Nuno R Faria
- MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, London, UK; Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK; Instituto de Medicina Tropical, Faculdade de Medicina da Universidade de São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
| | - Scott C Weaver
- Department of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA; World Reference Center for Emerging Viruses and Arboviruses, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA; Institute for Human Infections and Immunity, University of Texas Medical Branch, Galveston, TX, USA
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Evans MV, Bhatnagar S, Drake JM, Murdock CC, Rice JL, Mukherjee S. The mismatch of narratives and local ecologies in the everyday governance of water access and mosquito control in an urbanizing community. Health Place 2023; 80:102989. [PMID: 36804681 DOI: 10.1016/j.healthplace.2023.102989] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/04/2022] [Revised: 01/05/2023] [Accepted: 02/06/2023] [Indexed: 02/18/2023]
Abstract
Mosquito-borne disease presents a significant threat to urban populations, but risk can be uneven across a city due to underlying environmental patterns. Urban residents rely on social and economic processes to control the environment and mediate disease risk, a phenomenon known as everyday governance. We studied how households employed everyday governance of urban infrastructure relevant to mosquito-borne disease in Bengaluru, India to examine if and how inequalities in everyday governance manifest in differences in mosquito control. We found that governance mechanisms differed for water access and mosquitoes. Economic and social capital served different roles for each, influenced by global narratives of water and vector control.
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Affiliation(s)
- M V Evans
- MIVEGEC, Univ. Montpellier, CNRS, IRD, Montpellier, France; Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA; Center for Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA.
| | - S Bhatnagar
- Observatoire de Genève, Université de Genève, Sauverny, Switzerland; School of Arts and Sciences, Azim Premji University, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India
| | - J M Drake
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA; Center for Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | - C C Murdock
- Odum School of Ecology, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA; Center for Ecology of Infectious Diseases, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA; Department of Entomology, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA; Cornell Institute of Host-Microbe Interactions and Disease, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA; Northeast Regional Center for Excellence in Vector-borne Diseases, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA
| | - J L Rice
- Department of Geography, University of Georgia, Athens, GA, USA
| | - S Mukherjee
- School of Arts and Sciences, Azim Premji University, Bengaluru, Karnataka, India; Biological and Life Sciences Division, School of Arts and Sciences, Ahmedabad University, Ahmedabad, Gujarat, India
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Arraes de Alencar Ximenes R, de Barros Miranda-Filho D, Brickley EB, Barreto de Araújo TV, Montarroyos UR, Abtibol-Bernardino MR, Mussi-Pinhata MM, Duarte G, Coutinho CM, Biason de Moura Negrini SF, Alecrim MDGC, Albuquerque de Almeida Peixoto LDF, Lopes Moreira ME, Zin A, Pereira Júnior JP, Nielsen-Saines K, Turchi Martelli CM, Rodrigues LC, Vieira de Souza W, Ventura LO, Silva de Oliveira C, de Matos H, Furtado Serra EM, Souza Gomes LT, Nogueira ML, Estofolete C, Vaz-Oliani DC, Passos SD, Moron A, Duarte Rodrigues MM, Pereira Sarmento SG, Turchi MD, Pela Rosado LE, de Sene Amâncio Zara AL, Franco Gomes MB, Schuler-Faccini L, Herrero-Silva J, Amorim MM, Melo AO, Ledo Alves da Cunha AJ, Prata-Barbosa A, Amim J, Rezende-Filho J, Calcagno JI, Júnior Alcântara LC, Lima de Almeida B, Hofer CB, Machado ES, de Siqueira IC, Martinez-Espinosa FE, Brasil P. Risk of adverse outcomes in offspring with RT-PCR confirmed prenatal Zika virus exposure: An individual participant data meta-analysis of 13 cohorts in the Zika Brazilian Cohorts Consortium. LANCET REGIONAL HEALTH. AMERICAS 2023; 17:100395. [PMID: 36714276 PMCID: PMC9880800 DOI: 10.1016/j.lana.2022.100395] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/29/2022]
Abstract
Background Knowledge regarding the risks associated with Zika virus (ZIKV) infections in pregnancy has relied on individual studies with relatively small sample sizes and variable risk estimates of adverse outcomes, or on surveillance or routinely collected data. Using data from the Zika Brazilian Cohorts Consortium, this study aims, to estimate the risk of adverse outcomes among offspring of women with RT-PCR-confirmed ZIKV infection during pregnancy and to explore heterogeneity between studies. Methods We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis of the offspring of 1548 pregnant women from 13 studies, using one and two-stage meta-analyses to estimate the absolute risks. Findings Of the 1548 ZIKV-exposed pregnancies, the risk of miscarriage was 0.9%, while the risk of stillbirth was 0.3%. Among the pregnancies with liveborn children, the risk of prematurity was 10,5%, the risk of low birth weight was 7.7, and the risk of small for gestational age (SGA) was 16.2%. For other abnormalities, the absolute risks were: 2.6% for microcephaly at birth or first evaluation, 4.0% for microcephaly at any time during follow-up, 7.9% for neuroimaging abnormalities, 18.7% for functional neurological abnormalities, 4.0% for ophthalmic abnormalities, 6.4% for auditory abnormalities, 0.6% for arthrogryposis, and 1.5% for dysphagia. This risk was similar in all sites studied and in different socioeconomic conditions, indicating that there are not likely to be other factors modifying this association. Interpretation This study based on prospectively collected data generates the most robust evidence to date on the risks of congenital ZIKV infections over the early life course. Overall, approximately one-third of liveborn children with prenatal ZIKV exposure presented with at least one abnormality compatible with congenital infection, while the risk to present with at least two abnormalities in combination was less than 1.0%.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ricardo Arraes de Alencar Ximenes
- Postgraduate Program in Tropical Medicine, Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife, PE, Brazil,Post-Graduation in Health Sciences, University of Pernambuco, Recife, PE, Brazil,Corresponding author. Professional address: Postgraduate Program in Tropical Medicine, Federal University of Pernambuco, Av. Prof. Moraes Rego, s/n., Cidade Universitária, Recife, PE 50670-901, Brazil; University of Pernambuco, Rua Arnóbio Marques, n. 310, Santo Amaro, Recife, PE 50100-130, Brazil.
| | | | - Elizabeth B. Brickley
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | | | - Marília Rosa Abtibol-Bernardino
- Postgraduate Program in Tropical Medicine, University of Amazonas State, Manaus, AM, Brazil,Postgraduate Program in Tropical Medicine, Doctor Heitor Vieira Dourado Tropical Medicine Foundation, Manaus, Brazil
| | | | - Geraldo Duarte
- Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Ribeirão Preto Medical School, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil
| | - Conrado Milani Coutinho
- Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Ribeirão Preto Medical School, Ribeirão Preto, SP, Brazil
| | | | - Maria das Graças Costa Alecrim
- Postgraduate Program in Tropical Medicine, University of Amazonas State, Manaus, AM, Brazil,Postgraduate Program in Tropical Medicine, Doctor Heitor Vieira Dourado Tropical Medicine Foundation, Manaus, Brazil
| | - Lucíola de Fátima Albuquerque de Almeida Peixoto
- Postgraduate Program in Tropical Medicine, University of Amazonas State, Manaus, AM, Brazil,Postgraduate Program in Tropical Medicine, Doctor Heitor Vieira Dourado Tropical Medicine Foundation, Manaus, Brazil
| | | | - Andrea Zin
- Clinical Research Unit, Instituto Fernandes Figueira, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | | | - Karin Nielsen-Saines
- Department of Pediatrics, David Geffen University of California at Los Angeles School of Medicine, LA, United States
| | | | - Laura Cunha Rodrigues
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Liana O. Ventura
- Department of Ophthalmology, Altino Ventura Foundation, Recife, PE, Brazil,Pernambuco Eyes Hospital, Recife, PE, Brazil
| | | | - Haroldo de Matos
- Department of Epidemiology, Evandro Chagas Institute, Ananindeua, PA, Brazil
| | | | - Luna Thais Souza Gomes
- Department of Arbovirology and Hemorrhagic Fever, Evandro Chagas Institute, Ananindeua, PA, Brazil
| | - Maurício L. Nogueira
- Department of Infectious Disease, Medicine School of São José do Rio Preto, São José do Rio Preto, SP, Brazil
| | - Cassia Estofolete
- Department of Infectious Disease, Medicine School of São José do Rio Preto, São José do Rio Preto, SP, Brazil
| | - Denise Cristina Vaz-Oliani
- Department of Gynecology and Obstetrics, Medicine School of São José do Rio Preto, São José do Rio Preto, SP, Brazil
| | - Saulo Duarte Passos
- Infectious Pediatric Laboratory, Medicine School of Jundiaí, Jundiaí, SP, Brazil
| | - Antonio Moron
- Department of Fetal Medicine, Federal University of São Paulo, São Paulo, SP, Brazil
| | | | | | - Marília Dalva Turchi
- Institute of Tropical Pathology and Public Health, Federal University of Goiás, Goiânia, GO, Brazil
| | | | | | | | - Lavínia Schuler-Faccini
- Departamento de Genética, Hospital das Clinicas de Porto Alegre, Universidade Federal do Rio Grandedo Sul, Porto Alegre, RS, Brazil
| | - Juliana Herrero-Silva
- City Hall of Tangará da Serra, Municipal Health Department, Tangará da Serra, MT, Brazil
| | - Melania M. Amorim
- Medical Academic Unit, Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grande, PB, Brazil
| | - Adriana Oliveira Melo
- Medical Academic Unit, Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grande, PB, Brazil
| | | | - Arnaldo Prata-Barbosa
- Department of Pediatrics, D’Or Institute for Research & Education, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Joffre Amim
- Department of Obstectrics, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Maternity School, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Jorge Rezende-Filho
- Department of Obstectrics, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Maternity School, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Juan Ignacio Calcagno
- Reference Maternity Prof. José Maria de Magalhães Netto, Bahia Health Department, Salvador, BA, Brazil
| | | | | | - Cristina Barroso Hofer
- Department of Infecitous Diseases, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | - Elizabeth S. Machado
- Department of Infecitous Diseases, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil
| | | | - Flor Ernestina Martinez-Espinosa
- Postgraduate Program in Tropical Medicine, University of Amazonas State, Manaus, AM, Brazil,Postgraduate Program in Tropical Medicine, Doctor Heitor Vieira Dourado Tropical Medicine Foundation, Manaus, Brazil,Leonidas and Maria Deane Institute, Fiocruz, Manaus, AM, Brazil
| | - Patrícia Brasil
- Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Fiocruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
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Mbanzulu KM, Wumba R, Mboera LEG, Kayembe JMN, Engbu D, Bojabwa MM, Zanga JK, Misinzo G, Kimera SI. Pattern of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus Associated with Human Exposure to Dengue Virus in Kinshasa, the Democratic Republic of the Congo. Trop Med Infect Dis 2022; 7:392. [PMID: 36422943 PMCID: PMC9695267 DOI: 10.3390/tropicalmed7110392] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/20/2022] [Revised: 11/10/2022] [Accepted: 11/14/2022] [Indexed: 08/27/2023] Open
Abstract
Dengue is a worldwide public health concern. The current study assessed the extent of human exposure to the dengue virus in relation to the distribution pattern of Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus in Kinshasa. Cross-sectional surveys were carried out in 2021 and 2022. The baseline entomological survey involved 19 municipalities using a grid cell sampling approach. All containers holding water were inspected for the presence of larvae in each grid. The collected larvae were kept in an insectary until the adult emergence for morphological identification. Four hundred febrile patients attending the hospital were screened for the presence of dengue antibodies (IgG, IgM) and NS1 antigen using a rapid diagnostic test (RDT) Biosynex®. Residences of positive cases were geo-referenced. We evaluated 1850 grid cells, of which 19.5% were positive for Aedes larvae. The positive grid cells were identified in the Ndjili (44.0%), Mont Ngafula (32.0%) and Ngaliema (26.0%), and Limete (32.0%) municipalities. The Ae. aegypti (11.2%) predominated in the northwestern, and Ae. albopictus (9.1%) appeared in the high vegetation coverage areas. Of 61 (15.3%) participants exposed to dengue, 8.3% presented acute dengue. Young, (6-17 years), male, and Mont Amba district participants were most exposed to dengue. In conclusion, dengue occurrence in Kinshasa overlaps somewhat the geographical and ecological distributions of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus. Both species are not homogenously distributed, likely due to environmental factors. These findings can assist the targeted control activities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Kennedy Makola Mbanzulu
- SACIDS Africa Centre of Excellence for Infectious Diseases of Humans and Animals in Eastern and Southern Africa, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3297, Tanzania
- Department of Tropical Medicine, Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa P.O. Box 01306, Democratic Republic of the Congo
- Department of Veterinary Microbiology, Parasitology and Biotechnology, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3019, Tanzania
| | - Roger Wumba
- Department of Tropical Medicine, Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa P.O. Box 01306, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Leonard E. G. Mboera
- SACIDS Africa Centre of Excellence for Infectious Diseases of Humans and Animals in Eastern and Southern Africa, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3297, Tanzania
| | - Jean-Marie Ntumba Kayembe
- SACIDS Africa Centre of Excellence for Infectious Diseases of Humans and Animals in Eastern and Southern Africa, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3297, Tanzania
- Department of Internal Medicine, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa P.O. Box 747, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Danoff Engbu
- Department of Tropical Medicine, Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa P.O. Box 01306, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Michael Mondjo Bojabwa
- Department of Tropical Medicine, Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa P.O. Box 01306, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Josué Kikana Zanga
- Department of Tropical Medicine, Infectious and Parasitic Diseases, University of Kinshasa, Kinshasa P.O. Box 01306, Democratic Republic of the Congo
| | - Gerald Misinzo
- SACIDS Africa Centre of Excellence for Infectious Diseases of Humans and Animals in Eastern and Southern Africa, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3297, Tanzania
- Department of Veterinary Microbiology, Parasitology and Biotechnology, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3019, Tanzania
| | - Sharadhuli Iddi Kimera
- SACIDS Africa Centre of Excellence for Infectious Diseases of Humans and Animals in Eastern and Southern Africa, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3297, Tanzania
- Department of Veterinary Medicine and Public Health, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Morogoro P.O. Box 3021, Tanzania
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16
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Mader AD, Waters NA, Kawazu EC, Marvier M, Monnin N, Salkeld DJ. Messaging Should Reflect the Nuanced Relationship between Land Change and Zoonotic Disease Risk. Bioscience 2022; 72:1099-1104. [PMID: 36325104 PMCID: PMC9618275 DOI: 10.1093/biosci/biac075] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/28/2022] Open
Abstract
A hallmark of the media publicity surrounding COVID-19 has been the message that land change causes zoonotic diseases to spill over from wild animals to humans. The secondary peer-reviewed literature sends a similar message. However, as indicated in the primary peer-reviewed literature, the complexity of interacting variables involved in zoonotic disease spillover makes it unlikely for such a claim to be universally applicable. The secondary peer-reviewed literature and the mainstream media also differ markedly from the primary peer-reviewed literature in their lack of nuance in messaging about the relationship between land change and spillover risk. We advocate accurate, nuanced messaging for the sake of the local communities at greatest risk from zoonotic disease, for the sake of scientific credibility, and so that proportionate attention may be given to other possible drivers of spillover risk.
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Affiliation(s)
- André D Mader
- Institute for Global Environmental Strategies , Hayama, Kanagawa, Japan
| | - Neil A Waters
- University of Tokyo , Kashiwa, Chiba Prefecture, Japan
| | - Erin C Kawazu
- Global Environmental Strategies , Hayama, Kanagawa, Japan
| | | | - Noémie Monnin
- University College London , London, England, United Kingdom
| | - Daniel J Salkeld
- Colorado State University , Fort Collins, Colorado, United States
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17
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Paixão ES, Fernandes QHRF, Cardim LL, Pescarini JM, Costa MCN, Falcão IR, Brickley EB, Santos AC, Portela Souza A, Carvalho-Sauer RDCO, Smeeth L, Rodrigues LC, Barreto ML, Teixeira MG. Socioeconomic risk markers of congenital Zika syndrome: a nationwide, registry-based study in Brazil. BMJ Glob Health 2022; 7:bmjgh-2022-009600. [PMID: 36175039 PMCID: PMC9528618 DOI: 10.1136/bmjgh-2022-009600] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/12/2022] [Accepted: 08/29/2022] [Indexed: 11/04/2022] Open
Abstract
While it is well known that socioeconomic markers are associated with a higher risk of arbovirus infections, research on the relationship between socioeconomic factors and congenital Zika syndrome (CZS) remains limited. This study investigates the relationship between socioeconomic risk markers and live births with CZS in Brazil. We conducted a population-based study using data from all registered live births in Brazil (Live Births Information System) linked with the Public Health Event Record from 1 January 2015 to 31 December 2018. We used logistic regression models to estimate the OR and 95% CIs of CZS based on a three-level framework. In an analysis of 11 366 686 live births, of which 3353 had CZS, we observed that live births of self-identified black or mixed race/brown mothers (1.72 (95% CI 1.47 to 2.01) and 1.37 (95% CI 1.24 to 1.51)) were associated with a higher odds of CZS. Live births from single women compared with married women and those from women with less than 12 years of education compared with those with more than 12 years of education also had higher odds of CZS. In addition, live births following fewer prenatal care appointments had increased odds of CZS in the nationwide data. However, in the analyses conducted in the Northeast region (where the microcephaly epidemic started before the link with Zika virus was established and before preventive measures were known or disseminated), no statistical association was found between the number of prenatal care appointments and the odds of CZS. This study shows that live births of the most socially vulnerable women in Brazil had the greatest odds of CZS. This disproportionate distribution of risk places an even greater burden on already socioeconomically disadvantaged groups, and the lifelong disabilities caused by this syndrome may reinforce existing social and health inequalities.
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Affiliation(s)
- Enny S Paixão
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK .,Center of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, Brazil
| | - Qeren Hapuk R Ferreira Fernandes
- Center of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, Brazil
| | - Luciana L Cardim
- Center of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, Brazil
| | - Julia M Pescarini
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | | | - Ila R Falcão
- Center of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, Brazil
| | - Elizabeth B Brickley
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Andreia Costa Santos
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - André Portela Souza
- School of Economics and Center for Applied Microeconomic Studies, Getulio Vargas Foundation, São Paulo, Brazil
| | | | - Liam Smeeth
- Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Laura C Rodrigues
- Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Mauricio L Barreto
- Center of Data and Knowledge Integration for Health (CIDACS), Gonçalo Moniz Institute, Oswaldo Cruz Foundation, Salvador, Brazil
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Devillers J, Sartor V, Devillers H. Predicting mosquito repellents for clothing application from molecular fingerprint-based artificial neural network SAR models. SAR AND QSAR IN ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 33:729-751. [PMID: 36106833 DOI: 10.1080/1062936x.2022.2124014] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/22/2022] [Accepted: 09/06/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Spraying repellents on clothing limits toxicity and allergy problems that can occur when the repellents are directly applied to skin. This also allows the use of higher doses to ensure longer lasting effects. As the number of repellents available on the market is limited, it is necessary to propose new ones, especially by using in silico methods that reduce costs and time. In this context SAR models were built from a dataset of 2027 chemicals for which repellent activity on clothing was measured against Aedes aegypti. The interest of using either the ECFP or MACCS fingerprints as input neurons of a three-layer perceptron was evaluated. Transformation of MACCS bit strings into disjunctive tables led to interesting results. Models obtained with both types of fingerprints were compared to a model including physicochemical and topological descriptors.
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Affiliation(s)
| | - V Sartor
- Laboratoire des IMRCP, Université de Toulouse, CNRS UMR 5623, Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier, Toulouse, France
| | - H Devillers
- SPO, Univ Montpellier, INRAE, Institut Agro, Montpellier, France
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