Prediction of coronary heart disease in a population with high prevalence of diabetes and albuminuria: the Strong Heart Study

Dyslipidemia in American Indian Adolescents and Young Adults: Strong Heart Family Study

BACKGROUND

Although many studies on the association between dyslipidemia and cardiovascular disease (CVD) exist in older adults, data on the association among adolescents and young adults living with disproportionate burden of cardiometabolic disorders are scarce.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The SHFS (Strong Heart Family Study) is a multicenter, family-based, prospective cohort study of CVD in an American Indian populations, including 12 communities in central Arizona, southwestern Oklahoma, and the Dakotas. We evaluated SHFS participants, who were 15 to 39 years old at the baseline examination in 2001 to 2003 (n=1440). Lipids were measured after a 12-hour fast. We used carotid ultrasounds to detect plaque at baseline and follow-up in 2006 to 2009 (median follow-up=5.5 years). We identified incident CVD events through 2020 with a median follow-up of 18.5 years. We used shared frailty proportional hazards models to assess the association between dyslipidemia and subclinical or clinical CVD, while controlling for covariates. Baseline dyslipidemia prevalence was 55.2%, 73.6%, and 78.0% for participants 15 to 19, 20 to 29, and 30 to 39 years old, respectively. Approximately 2.8% had low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥160 mg/dL, which is higher than the recommended threshold for lifestyle or medical interventions in young adults of 20 to 39 years old. During follow-up, 9.9% had incident plaque (109/1104 plaque-free participants with baseline and follow-up ultrasounds), 11.0% had plaque progression (128/1165 with both baseline and follow-up ultrasounds), and 9% had incident CVD (127/1416 CVD-free participants at baseline). Plaque incidence and progression were higher in participants with total cholesterol ≥200 mg/dL, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥160 mg/dL, or non-high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥130 mg/dL, while controlling for covariates. CVD risk was independently associated with low-density lipoprotein cholesterol ≥160 mg/dL.

CONCLUSIONS

Dyslipidemia is a modifiable risk factor that is associated with both subclinical and clinical CVD, even among the younger American Indian population who have unexpectedly high rates of significant CVD events. Therefore, this population is likely to benefit from a variety of evidence-based interventions including screening, educational, lifestyle, and guideline-directed medical therapy at an early age.

Plasma lipidomic markers of diet quality are associated with incident coronary heart disease in American Indian adults: the Strong Heart Family Study

BACKGROUND

Identifying lipidomic markers of diet quality is needed to inform the development of biomarkers of diet, and to understand the mechanisms driving the diet- coronary heart disease (CHD) association.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to identify lipidomic markers of diet quality and examine whether these lipids are associated with incident CHD.

METHODS

Using liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry, we measured 1542 lipid species from 1694 American Indian adults (aged 18-75 years, 62% female) in the Strong Heart Family Study. Participants were followed up for development of CHD through 2020. Information on the past year diet was collected using the Block Food Frequency Questionnaire, and diet quality was assessed using the Alternative Healthy Eating Index-2010 (AHEI). Mixed-effects linear regression was used to identify individual lipids cross-sectionally associated with AHEI. In prospective analysis, Cox frailty model was used to estimate the hazard ratio (HR) of each AHEI-related lipid for incident CHD. All models were adjusted for age, sex, center, education, body mass index, smoking, alcohol drinking, level of physical activity, energy intake, diabetes, hypertension, and use of lipid-lowering drugs. Multiple testing was controlled at a false discovery rate of <0.05.

RESULTS

Among 1542 lipid species measured, 71 lipid species (23 known), including acylcarnitine, cholesterol esters, glycerophospholipids, sphingomyelins and triacylglycerols, were associated with AHEI. Most of the identified lipids were associated with consumption of ω-3 (n-3) fatty acids. In total, 147 participants developed CHD during a mean follow-up of 17.8 years. Among the diet-related lipids, 10 lipids [5 known: cholesterol ester (CE)(22:5)B, phosphatidylcholine (PC)(p-14:0/22:1)/PC(o-14:0/22:1), PC(p-38:3)/PC(o-38:4)B, phosphatidylethanolamine (PE)(p-18:0/20:4)/PE(o-18:0/20:4), and sphingomyelin (d36:2)A] were associated with incident CHD. On average, each standard deviation increase in the baseline level of these 5 lipids was associated with 17%-23% increased risk of CHD (from HR: 1.17; 95% CI: 1, 1.36; to HR: 1.23; 95% CI: 1.05, 1.43).

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, lipidomic markers of diet quality in American Indian adults are found. Some diet-related lipids are associated with risk of CHD beyond established risk factors.

Regular aspirin use among a sample of American Indians/Alaskan Natives in the Upper Midwest region of the United States

Despite high prevalence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and CVD risk factors among American Indian or Alaska Native adults (AI/AN), there is little information on aspirin use in this population. This survey-based study seeks to understand prevalence of aspirin use in a sample of AI/AN adults in the Upper Midwestern United States. In-person and telephone based surveys were conducted querying self-reported CVD and CVD risk factors, aspirin use, and aspirin related discussion with clinicians. A total of 237 AI/AN participants were included: mean age (SD) was 60.8 (8.4) years; 143 (60 %) were women; 59 (25 %) reported CVD history. CVD risk factors were common particularly smoking (37 %) and diabetes (37 %). Aspirin use was much higher among those with CVD (secondary prevention, 76 %) than those without (primary prevention, 33 %). Primary prevention aspirin use was significantly associated with age and all CVD risk factors in unadjusted analyses. After adjustment for demographics and CVD risk factors, only age (aRR 1.13 per 5 years, 95 % CI 1.02, 1.25) and diabetes (aRR 2.44, 95 % CI 1.52, 3.92) remained significantly associated with aspirin. Regardless of CVD status, a higher proportion of those taking aspirin reported a conversation about aspirin with their doctor compared to those not taking aspirin. Among participants with no CVD, those who had such a conversation were 2.6 times more likely to use aspirin than those who did not have a conversation (aRR 2.64, 95 % CI 1.58, 4.44). The findings of this study emphasize the importance of the patient-provider relationship for preventive therapy.

A community health promotion project: Amazing Race for Heart Health

Introduction

American Indians have higher rates of cardiovascular disease (CVD), likely due to disproportionate burden of diabetes and limited access to widespread CVD prevention programs such as Honoring the Gift of Heart Health (HGHH), a 10-week CVD risk factor awareness curriculum. Due to its length, HGHH may be difficult to complete; therefore, we aimed to evaluate a shortened CVD risk factor awareness program based on the HGHH educational materials for American Indians residing in southwest Oklahoma, entitled "The Amazing Race for Heart Health."

Methods

We conducted an interventional study where each participant served as their own control (n = 61), with pre- and post-intervention measurements. We included American Indians from seven tribal nations in southwest Oklahoma. At two interventional meetings we used educational materials and activities from HGHH focusing on nutrition, cholesterol, diabetes, hypertension, physical activity, and heart attack warning signs. McNemar's test was used to determine the effectiveness of the intervention on raising CVD risk factor awareness.

Results

When comparing the pre- and post-survey responses, the percentage of correct responses either stayed the same or increased. Knowledge improved in 11/25 (44%, p < 0.05) domains including the difference between good and bad cholesterol and types of physical activity that can prevent CVD. When considering diabetes, knowledge increased regarding the interaction between diabetes and cholesterol in the association with CVD.

Discussion

These results demonstrate that the "Amazing Race for Heart Health," a shortened CVD risk factor educational program based on the HGHH educational materials, was effective at increasing awareness regarding CVD risk factors.

Associations of pedometer-measured ambulatory activity with incidence of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases: Strong heart family study

OBJECTIVE

Coronary heart disease has several risk factors that require a multifactorial community intervention approach in prevention efforts. Prevalence of coronary heart disease and its risk factors have been disproportionately high among American Indians. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of ambulatory activity levels on the development of coronary heart disease in this population.

METHODS

Using pedometer data and other lifestyle and clinical factors from 2492 participants in the Strong Heart Family Study, we examined the associations of average daily step counts with incident coronary heart disease during an 18 to 20 year follow-up.

RESULTS

After adjusting for potential confounders, participants with daily step counts in the 4th quartile (>7282 steps per day) had significantly lower odds of developing coronary heart disease compared to those in the 1st quartile (<3010 steps per day) (p = 0.035).

CONCLUSIONS

Higher daily step count (over 7282 steps per day) is significantly associated with lower incidence of coronary heart disease among American Indian participants of the Strong Heart Family Study in a 20-year follow-up period.

Developing a Charlson Comorbidity Index for the American Indian Population Using the Epidemiologic Data from the Strong Heart Study

Background

The Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) is a frequently used mortality predictor based on a scoring system for the number and type of patient comorbidities health researchers have used since the late 1980s. The initial purpose of the CCI was to classify comorbid conditions, which could alter the risk of patient mortality within a one-year time frame. However, the CCI may not accurately reflect risk among American Indians because they are a small proportion of the U.S. population and possibly lack representation in the original patient cohort. A motivating factor in calibrating a CCI for American Indians is that this population, as a whole, experiences a greater burden of comorbidities, including diabetes mellitus, obesity, cancer, cardiovascular disease, and other chronic health conditions, than the rest of the U.S. population.

Methods

This study attempted to modify the CCI to be specific to the American Indian population utilizing the data from the still ongoing The Strong Heart Study (SHS) - a multi-center population-based longitudinal study of cardiovascular disease among American Indians.A one-year survival analysis with mortality as the outcome was performed using the SHS morbidity and mortality surveillance data and assessing the impact of comorbidities in terms of hazard ratios with the training cohort. A Kaplan-Meier plot for a subset of the testing cohort was used to compare groups with selected mCCI-AI scores.

Results

A total of 3,038 Phase VI participants from the SHS comprised the study population for whom mortality and morbidity surveillance data were available through December 2019. The weights generated by the SHS participants for myocardial infarction, congestive heart failure, and high blood pressure were greater than Charlson's original weights. In addition, the weights for liver illness were equivalent to Charlson's severe form of the disease. Lung cancer had the greatest overall weight derived from a hazard ratio of 8.308.

Conclusions

The mCCI-AI was a statistically significant predictor of one-year mortality, classifying patients into different risk strata X2 (8, N = 1,245) = 30.56 (p = .0002). The mCCI-AI exhibited superior performance over the CCI, able to discriminate between participants who died and those who survived 73% of the time.

Native opportunities to stop hypertension: study protocol for a randomized controlled trial among urban American Indian and Alaska Native adults with hypertension

Introduction

American Indian and Alaska Native (AI/AN) adults experience disproportionate cardiovascular disease (CVD) morbidity and mortality compared to other races, which may be partly attributable to higher burden of hypertension (HTN). Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) is a high-impact therapeutic dietary intervention for primary and secondary prevention of CVD that can contribute to significant decreases in systolic blood pressure (BP). However, DASH-based interventions have not been tested with AI/AN adults, and unique social determinants of health warrant independent trials. This study will assess the effectiveness of a DASH-based intervention, called Native Opportunities to Stop Hypertension (NOSH), on systolic BP among AI/AN adults in three urban clinics.

Methods

NOSH is a randomized controlled trial to test the effectiveness of an adapted DASH intervention compared to a control condition. Participants will be aged ≥18 years old, self-identify as AI/AN, have physician-diagnosed HTN, and have elevated systolic BP (≥ 130 mmHg). The intervention includes eight weekly, tailored telenutrition counseling sessions with a registered dietitian on DASH eating goals. Intervention participants will be provided $30 weekly and will be encouraged to purchase DASH-aligned foods. Participants in the control group will receive printed educational materials with general information about a low-sodium diet and eight weekly $30 grocery orders. All participants will complete assessments at baseline, after the 8-week intervention, and again 12 weeks post-baseline. A sub-sample of intervention participants will complete an extended support pilot study with assessments at 6- and 9-months post-baseline. The primary outcome is systolic BP. Secondary outcomes include modifiable CVD risk factors, heart disease and stroke risk scores, and dietary intake.

Discussion

NOSH is among the first randomized controlled trials to test the impact of a diet-based intervention on HTN among urban AI/AN adults. If effective, NOSH has the potential to inform clinical strategies to reduce BP among AI/AN adults.

Clinical trials registration

https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02796313, Identifier NCT02796313.

4D Biofabrication of Mechanically Stable Tubular Constructs Using Shape Morphing Porous Bilayers for Vascularization Application

This study reports the fabrication of highly porous electrospun self-folding bilayers, which fold into tubular structures with excellent mechanical stability, allowing them to be easily manipulated and handled. Two kinds of bilayers based on biocompatible and biodegradable soft (PCL, polycaprolactone) and hard (PHB, poly-hydroxybutyrate) thermoplastic polymers have been fabricated and compared. Multi-scroll structures with tunable diameter are obtained after the shape transformation of the bilayer in aqueous media, where PCL-based bilayer rolled longitudinally and PHB-based one rolled transversely with respect to the fiber direction. A combination of higher elastic modulus and transverse orientation of fibers with respect to rolling direction allowed precise temporal control of shape transformation of PHB-bilayer - stress produced by swollen methacrylated hyaluronic acid (HA-MA) do not relax with time and folding is not affected by the fact that bilayer is fixed in unfolded state in cell culture medium for more than 1 h. This property of PHB-bilayer allowed cell culturing without a negative effect on its shape transformation ability. Moreover, PHB-based tubular structure demonstrated superior mechanical stability compared to PCL-based ones and do not collapse during manipulations that happened to PCL-based one. Additionally, PHB/HA-MA bilayers showed superior biocompatibility, degradability, and long-term stability compared to PCL/HA-MA.

Arsenic Exposure, Blood DNA Methylation, and Cardiovascular Disease

BACKGROUND

Epigenetic dysregulation has been proposed as a key mechanism for arsenic-related cardiovascular disease (CVD). We evaluated differentially methylated positions (DMPs) as potential mediators on the association between arsenic and CVD.

METHODS

Blood DNA methylation was measured in 2321 participants (mean age 56.2, 58.6% women) of the Strong Heart Study, a prospective cohort of American Indians. Urinary arsenic species were measured using high-performance liquid chromatography coupled to inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. We identified DMPs that are potential mediators between arsenic and CVD. In a cross-species analysis, we compared those DMPs with differential liver DNA methylation following early-life arsenic exposure in the apoE knockout (apoE^-/-) mouse model of atherosclerosis.

RESULTS

A total of 20 and 13 DMPs were potential mediators for CVD incidence and mortality, respectively, several of them annotated to genes related to diabetes. Eleven of these DMPs were similarly associated with incident CVD in 3 diverse prospective cohorts (Framingham Heart Study, Women's Health Initiative, and Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis). In the mouse model, differentially methylated regions in 20 of those genes and DMPs in 10 genes were associated with arsenic.

CONCLUSIONS

Differential DNA methylation might be part of the biological link between arsenic and CVD. The gene functions suggest that diabetes might represent a relevant mechanism for arsenic-related cardiovascular risk in populations with a high burden of diabetes.

Prediction models of diabetes complications: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Diabetes often places a large burden on people with diabetes (hereafter 'patients') and the society, that is, in part attributable to its complications. However, evidence from models predicting diabetes complications in patients remains unclear. With the collaboration of patient partners, we aimed to describe existing prediction models of physical and mental health complications of diabetes.

METHODS

Building on existing frameworks, we systematically searched for studies in Ovid-Medline and Embase. We included studies describing prognostic prediction models that used data from patients with pre-diabetes or any type of diabetes, published between 2000 and 2020. Independent reviewers screened articles, extracted data and narratively synthesised findings using established reporting standards.

RESULTS

Overall, 78 studies reported 260 risk prediction models of cardiovascular complications (n=42 studies), mortality (n=16), kidney complications (n=14), eye complications (n=10), hypoglycaemia (n=8), nerve complications (n=3), cancer (n=2), fracture (n=2) and dementia (n=1). Prevalent complications deemed important by patients such as amputation and mental health were poorly or not at all represented. Studies primarily analysed data from older people with type 2 diabetes (n=54), with little focus on pre-diabetes (n=0), type 1 diabetes (n=8), younger (n=1) and racialised people (n=10). Per complication, predictors vary substantially between models. Studies with details of calibration and discrimination mostly exhibited good model performance.

CONCLUSION

This rigorous knowledge synthesis provides evidence of gaps in the landscape of diabetes complication prediction models. Future studies should address unmet needs for analyses of complications n> and among patient groups currently under-represented in the literature and should consistently report relevant statistics. SCOPING REVIEW REGISTRATION: https://osf.io/fjubt/.

Coronary Atherosclerotic Disease and Cancer: Risk Factors and Interrelation

Background

In our clinical work, we found that cancer patients were susceptible to coronary atherosclerotic heart disease (CAD). However, less is known about the relationship between CAD and cancer. The present study aimed to identify the risk factors for CAD and cancer, as well as the relationship between CAD and cancer.

Methods

In this retrospective study, 1600 patients between January 2012 and June 2019 were enrolled and divided into groups according to whether they had CAD or cancer. Single-factor and multivariate analysis methods were applied to examine the risk factors for CAD and cancer.

Results

(1) Cancer prevalence was significantly higher in patients with CAD than in patients without CAD (47.2 vs. 20.9%). The prevalence of CAD in cancer and non-cancer patients was 78.9 and 52.4%, respectively. (2) Multivariable logistic regression showed that patients with cancer had a higher risk of developing CAD than non-cancer patients (OR: 2.024, 95% CI: 1.475 to 2.778, p &lt; 0.001). Respiratory (OR: 1.981, 95% CI: 1.236–3.175, p = 0.005), digestive (OR: 1.899, 95% CI: 1.177–3.064, p = 0.009) and urogenital (OR: 3.595, 95% CI: 1.696–7.620, p = 0.001) cancers were significantly associated with a higher risk of CAD compared with no cancer. (3) Patients with CAD also had a higher risk of developing cancer than non-CAD patients (OR = 2.157, 95% CI: 1.603 to 2.902, p &lt; 0.001). Patients in the Alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level ≥ 40 U/L group had a lower risk of cancer than patients in the ALT level &lt; 20 U/L group (OR: 0.490, 95% CI: 0.333–0.722, p &lt; 0.001). (4) An integrated variable (Y = 0.205 × 10–1 age − 0.595 × 10–2 HGB − 0.116 × 10–1 ALT + 0.135 FIB) was identified for monitoring the occurrence of cancer among CAD patients, with an AUC of 0.720 and clinical sensitivity/specificity of 0.617/0.711.

Conclusion

(1) We discovered that CAD was an independent risk factor for cancer and vice versa. (2) Digestive, respiratory and urogenital cancers were independent risk factors for CAD. (3) We created a formula for the prediction of cancer among CAD patients. (4) ALT, usually considered a risk factor, was proven to be a protective factor for cancer in this study.

American Indian Alcohol Use from a Sex-Specific Wellness Approach: Exploring Its Associated Physical, Behavioral, and Mental Risk and Protective Factors

PURPOSE

The top causes of death for American Indians (AIs), including heart and liver disease, are associated with alcohol use. Using the culturally based Framework of Historical Oppression, Resilience, and Transcendence (FHORT), the purpose of this article was to examine AI alcohol use from a sex-specific wellness approach, exploring its associated physical, behavioral, and mental risk and protective factors.

METHOD

Data were drawn from a cross-sectional survey with 479 AI adults in South Dakota. We employed a series of multiple hierarchical regression analyses to assess the associations of demographic (sex, age, marital status, income, and educational attainment), physical (Body Mass Index and cardiovascular risk), behavioral (smoking and health self-efficacy) and mental (depressive symptoms) factors with alcohol use.

RESULTS

Results indicated that surveyed males tended to drink three times that of females, and depressive symptoms were associated with higher levels of alcohol use.

DISCUSSION

This study highlights the need to examine AI alcohol use with sex in mind.

Primary Prevention of Cardiovascular Disease in Minority Indigenous Populations: A Systematic Review

INTRODUCTION

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the commonest cause of death across the globe; incidence and prevalence rates are increasing. Together, CVD and diabetes mellitus are responsible for a quarter of the health gap observed between Aboriginal Australians and Torres Strait Islanders, and non-Indigenous Australians. Numerous programs have been proposed and implemented to Close the Gap; ideally, these should be evidence-based.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this review is to evaluate primary prevention measures and programs that aim to reduce CVD risk in minority Indigenous populations around the world.

METHODS

A search of PubMed, the Cochrane Library and the Elsevier Scopus Database was initially conducted using the terms "cardiovascular disease", "population groups", "primary prevention", "health services, indigenous", "indigenous health", "risk assessment" and "risk management". Results were then assessed per inclusion/exclusion criteria. A second reviewer independently evaluated the publications and review process to ensure agreement.

RESULTS

The initial search produced 37 publications; 19 met the inclusion criteria and were incorporated into a comparative table. Most were descriptive, mixed-methods, audit or intervention studies. Heterogeneity of study design prevented statistical analysis.

CONCLUSION

Addressing CVD risk in minority Indigenous populations is a multifactorial challenge; there is substantial room for improvement in routine risk assessment and management. Holistic approaches need to embrace local cultural perceptions of health and wellbeing. Validated risk reduction tools, individualised management plans, polypills and computer based decision support tools are promising to improve outcomes for those at risk.

Cardiovascular Health in American Indians and Alaska Natives: A Scientific Statement From the American Heart Association

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death among American Indians and Alaska Natives. Over the past 50 years, the prevalence of CVD has been rising among American Indians and Alaska Natives. The objective of this statement is to summarize population-level risk factors and management techniques tailored for the American Indian and Alaska Native populations.

METHODS

PubMed/MEDLINE, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, and the annual Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics report from the American Heart Association were used to identify risk factors and interventions specific to American Indians and Alaska Natives.

RESULTS

Diabetes mellitus is a major contributor to disproportionately higher rates of coronary heart disease among American Indians and Alaska Natives compared with other racial and ethnic groups. Additional risk factors for CVD include low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels, hypertension, renal disease, age, and sex. Smoking and exposure to toxic metals are risk factors for some subpopulations. A quarter of American Indians live below the federal poverty line, and thus, low socioeconomic status is an important social determinant of cardiovascular health. Community-based interventions have reduced CVD risk in American Indians and Alaska Natives. Underreporting of American Indian and Alaska Native race could underestimate the extent of CVD in this population.

CONCLUSIONS

Prevention and treatment of CVD in American Indians and Alaska Natives should focus on control of risk factors and community-based interventions that address social determinants of health, particularly among individuals with diabetes mellitus. Accurate reporting of race/ethnicity is encouraged to address race-specific risk factors.

Prehypertension and risk of cardiovascular diseases: a meta-analysis of 47 cohort studies

OBJECTIVE

To assess the association of prehypertension (SBP 120-139 mmHg and/or DBP 80-89 mmHg) and total cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), coronary heart disease (CHD), myocardial infarction (MI), and stroke.

METHODS

PubMed, Embase, and Web of Science were searched for articles published up to 7 November 2018. Normal range BP was considered SBP less than 120 mmHg and DBP less than 80 mmHg. RRs and 95% CIs were pooled using fixed-effects models. Meta-regression was conducted to estimate the heterogeneity among subgroups.

RESULTS

We included 27 articles (47 studies including 491 666 study participants) in the analysis. Prehypertension was associated with total CVDs (RR 1.40, 95% CI 1.34-1.46), CHD (1.40, 1.28-1.52), MI (1.86, 1.50-2.32), and stroke (1.66, 1.56-1.76). Risk of total CVDs, MI, and stroke was increased with low-range prehypertension (low-range: SBP 120-129 mmHg and/or DBP 80-84 mmHg) versus normal BP - RR 1.42 (95% CI 1.29-1.55), 1.43 (1.10-1.86), and 1.52 (1.27-1.81), respectively - and risk of total CVDs, CHD, MI, and stroke was increased with high-range prehypertension (high-range: SBP 130-139 mmHg and/or DBP 85-89 mmHg) - RR 1.81 (95% CI 1.56-2.10), 1.65 (1.13-2.39), 1.99 (1.59-2.50), and 1.99 (1.68-2.36), respectively. The population-attributable risk for the association of total CVDs, CHD, MI, and stroke with prehypertension was 12.09, 13.26, 24.60, and 19.15%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Prehypertension, particularly high-range, is associated with increased risk of total CVDs, CHD, MI, and stroke. Effective control of prehypertension could prevent more than 10% of CVD cases.

Predictive models of diabetes complications: protocol for a scoping review

BACKGROUND

Diabetes is a highly prevalent chronic disease that places a large burden on individuals and health care systems. Models predicting the risk (also called predictive models) of other conditions often compare people with and without diabetes, which is of little to no relevance for people already living with diabetes (called patients). This review aims to identify and synthesize findings from existing predictive models of physical and mental health diabetes-related conditions.

METHODS

We will use the scoping review frameworks developed by the Joanna Briggs Institute and Levac and colleagues. We will perform a comprehensive search for studies from Ovid MEDLINE and Embase databases. Studies involving patients with prediabetes and all types of diabetes will be considered, regardless of age and gender. We will limit the search to studies published between 2000 and 2018. There will be no restriction of studies based on country or publication language. Abstracts, full-text screening, and data extraction will be done independently by two individuals. Data abstraction will be conducted using a standard methodology. We will undertake a narrative synthesis of findings while considering the quality of the selected models according to validated and well-recognized tools and reporting standards.

DISCUSSION

Predictive models are increasingly being recommended for risk assessment in treatment decision-making and clinical guidelines. This scoping review will provide an overview of existing predictive models of diabetes complications and how to apply them. By presenting people at higher risk of specific complications, this overview may help to enhance shared decision-making and preventive strategies concerning diabetes complications. Our anticipated limitation is potentially missing models because we will not search grey literature.

Performance of cardiovascular risk prediction equations in Indigenous Australians

OBJECTIVE

To assess the performance of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk equations in Indigenous Australians.

METHODS

We conducted an individual participant meta-analysis using longitudinal data of 3618 Indigenous Australians (55% women) aged 30-74 years without CVD from population-based cohorts of the Cardiovascular Risk in IndigenouS People(CRISP) consortium. Predicted risk was calculated using: 1991 and 2008 Framingham Heart Study (FHS), the Pooled Cohorts (PC), GloboRisk and the Central Australian Rural Practitioners Association (CARPA) modification of the FHS equation. Calibration, discrimination and diagnostic accuracy were evaluated. Risks were calculated with and without the use of clinical criteria to identify high-risk individuals.

RESULTS

When applied without clinical criteria, all equations, except the CARPA-adjusted FHS, underestimated CVD risk (range of percentage difference between observed and predicted CVD risks: -55% to -14%), with underestimation greater in women (-63% to -13%) than men (-47% to -18%) and in younger age groups. Discrimination ranged from 0.66 to 0.72. The CARPA-adjusted FHS equation showed good calibration but overestimated risk in younger people, those without diabetes and those not at high clinical risk. When clinical criteria were used with risk equations, the CARPA-adjusted FHS algorithm scored 64% of those who had CVD events as high risk; corresponding figures for the 1991-FHS were 58% and were 87% for the PC equation for non-Hispanic whites. However, specificity fell.

CONCLUSION

The CARPA-adjusted FHS CVD risk equation and clinical criteria performed the best, achieving higher combined sensitivity and specificity than other equations. However, future research should investigate whether modifications to this algorithm combination might lead to improved risk prediction.

Cardiovascular Health among U.S. Indigenous Peoples: A Holistic and Sex-Specific Systematic Review

PURPOSE

The purpose of this systematic review is to examine mental, sociocultural, behavioral, and physical risk and protective factors related to cardiovascular disease (CVD) and related outcomes among U.S. Indigenous peoples.

METHODS

A total of 51 articles met the inclusion criteria of research focusing factors for CVD among U.S. Indigenous peoples (Mental n= 15; Sociocultural, n =17; Behavioral/Physical, n =19).

RESULTS

This review reveals clear risks for CVD, which tended to be elevated for females. Mental health problems (depression, anxiety, PTSD/trauma, alcohol and other drug (AOD) abuse) were clearly associated with CVD, along with enculturation, social support, and the social environment-including discrimination and trauma. Poor diet and obesity, diabetes, hypertension, cholesterol were behavioral or physical factors.

DISCUSSION

Overall, identified research was limited and in beginning stages, lacking more information on etiology of the interconnections across sex and the mental, sociocultural, and behavioral determinants of CVD.

Trends in Cardiovascular Disease Morbidity and Mortality in American Indians Over 25 Years: The Strong Heart Study

Background American Indians experience high rates of cardiovascular disease. We evaluated whether cardiovascular disease incidence, mortality, and prevalence changed over 25 years among American Indians aged 30 to 85. Methods and Results The SHS (Strong Heart Study) and SHFS (Strong Heart Family Study) are prospective studies of cardiovascular disease in American Indians. Participants enrolled in 1989 to 1990 or 2000 to 2003 with birth years from 1915 to 1984 were followed for cardiovascular disease events through 2013. We used Poisson regression to analyze data for 5627 individuals aged 30 to 85 years during follow-up. Outcomes reflect change in age-specific cardiovascular disease incidence, mortality, and prevalence, stratified by sex. To illustrate generational change, 5-year relative risk compared most recent birth years for ages 45, 55, 65, and 75 to same-aged counterparts born 1 generation (23-25 years) earlier. At all ages, cardiovascular disease incidence was lower for people with more recent birth years. Cardiovascular disease mortality declined consistently among men, while prevalence declined among women. Generational comparisons were similar for women aged 45 to 75 (relative risk, 0.39-0.46), but among men magnitudes strengthened from age 45 to 75 (relative risk, 0.91-0.39). For cardiovascular disease mortality, risk was lower in the most recent versus the earliest birth years for women (relative risk, 0.56-0.83) and men (relative risk, 0.40-0.54), but results for women were inconclusive. Conclusions Cardiovascular disease incidence declined over a generation in an American Indian cohort. Mortality declined more for men, while prevalence declined more for women. These trends might reflect more improvement in case survival among men compared with women.

Association of smoking and cardiometabolic parameters with albuminuria in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

Smoking is a strong risk factor for albuminuria in people with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, it is unclear whether this sequela of smoking is brought about by its action on cardiometabolic parameters or the relationship is independent. The aim of this systematic review is to explore this relationship.

METHODS

Electronic databases on cross-sectional and prospective studies in Medline and Embase were searched from January 1946 to May 2018. Adult smokers with T2DM were included, and other types of diabetes were excluded.

RESULTS

A random effects meta-analysis of 20,056 participants from 13 studies found that the odds ratio (OR) of smokers developing albuminuria compared to non-smokers was 2.13 (95% CI 1.32, 3.45). Apart from smoking, the odds ratio of other risk factors associated with albuminuria were: age 1.24 (95% CI 0.84, 1.64), male sex 1.39 (95% CI 1.16, 1.67), duration of diabetes 1.78 (95% CI 1.32, 2.23), HbA1c 0.63 (95% CI 0.45, 0.81), SBP 6.03 (95% CI 4.10, 7.97), DBP 1.85 (95% CI 1.08, 2.62), total cholesterol 0.06 (95% CI - 0.05, 0.17) and HDL cholesterol - 0.01 (95% CI - 0.04, 0.02), triglyceride 0.22 (95% CI 0.12, 0.33) and BMI 0.40 (95% CI 0.00-0.80). When the smoking status was adjusted in a mixed effect meta-regression model, the duration of diabetes was the only statistically significant factor that influenced the prevalence of albuminuria. In smokers, each year's increase in the duration of T2DM was associated with an increased risk of albuminuria of 0.19 units (95% CI 0.07, 0.31) on the log odds scale or increased the odds approximately by 23%, compared to non-smokers. Prediction from the meta-regression model also suggested that the odds ratios of albuminuria in smokers after a diabetes duration of 9 years and 16 years were 1.53 (95% CI 1.10, 2.13) and 5.94 (95% CI 2.53, 13.95), respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Continuing to smoke and the duration of diabetes are two strong predictors of albuminuria in smokers with T2DM. With a global surge in younger smokers developing T2DM, smoking cessation interventions at an early stage of disease trajectory should be promoted.

Association between diabetes mellitus and the risk for major cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality in women compared with men: a meta-analysis of prospective cohort studies

OBJECTIVE

Previous studies have reported sex differences in associations between diabetes mellitus (DM) and the risk of developing coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke; however, the risk for cardiac death and all-cause mortality in women compared with men has not been reported. Therefore, this quantitative meta-analysis was performed to provide reliable estimates of sex differences in the effect of DM on major cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality, irrespective of DM type.

DESIGN

Meta-analysis.

DATA SOURCES

The PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library databases were systematically searched in April 2018.

ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA

Investigations designed as prospective cohort studies that examined the association between DM and major cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality stratified according to sex were included.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Data extraction and quality assessment were independently performed by 2 of the authors, and the relative risk ratio (RRR) obtained using a random effects model was used to measure sex differences in the associations of DM with major cardiovascular outcomes and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Thirty prospective cohort studies that reported data from 1 148 188 individuals were included. The pooled women-to-men RRR suggested that female sex was associated with an increased risk for CHD (RRR 1.52(95% CI 1.32 to 1.76); p<0.001), stroke (RRR 1.23(95% CI 1.09 to 1.39); p=0.001), cardiac death (RRR 1.49(95% CI 1.11 to 2.00); p=0.009) and all-cause mortality (RRR 1.51(95% CI 1.23 to 1.85); p<0.001). In addition, sex differences for the investigated outcomes in the comparison between DM and non-DM patients were variable after stratification of studies according to publication year, country, sample size, assessment of DM, follow-up duration, adjustment for important cardiovascular risk factors and study quality.

CONCLUSIONS

Findings of the present study suggested that women with DM had an extremely high risk for CHD, stroke, cardiac death and all-cause mortality compared with men with DM.

Evaluating Community-Based Translational Interventions Using Historical Controls: Propensity Score vs. Disease Risk Score Approach

Many community-based translations of evidence-based interventions are designed as one-arm studies due to ethical and other considerations. Evaluating the impacts of such programs is challenging. Here, we examine the effectiveness of the lifestyle intervention implemented by the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Diabetes Prevention (SDPI-DP) demonstration project, a translational lifestyle intervention among American Indian and Alaska Native communities. Data from the landmark Diabetes Prevention Program placebo group was used as a historical control. We compared the use of propensity score (PS) and disease risk score (DRS) matching to adjust for potential confounder imbalance between groups. The unadjusted hazard ratio (HR) for diabetes risk was 0.35 for SDPI-DP lifestyle intervention vs. control. However, when relevant diabetes risk factors were considered, the adjusted HR estimates were attenuated toward 1, ranging from 0.56 (95% CI 0.44-0.71) to 0.69 (95% CI 0.56-0.96). The differences in estimated HRs using the PS and DRS approaches were relatively small but DRS matching resulted in more participants being matched and smaller standard errors of effect estimates. Carefully employed, publicly available randomized clinical trial data can be used as a historical control to evaluate the intervention effectiveness of one-arm community translational initiatives. It is critical to use a proper statistical method to balance the distributions of potential confounders between comparison groups in this kind of evaluations.

COSMIC project: consensus on the objectives of the metabolic syndrome in clinic

Metabolic syndrome (MetS), a disorder with a high and growing prevalence, is a recognized risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD) and type 2 diabetes. It is a constellation of clinical and metabolic risk factors that include abdominal obesity, dyslipidemia, glucose intolerance, and hypertension. Unfortunately, MetS is typically underrecognized, and there is great heterogeneity in its management, which can hamper clinical decision-making and be a barrier to achieving the therapeutic goals of CVD and diabetes prevention. Although no single treatment for MetS as a whole currently exists, management should be targeted at treating the conditions contributing to it and possibly reversing the risk factors. All this justifies the need to develop recommendations that adapt existing knowledge to clinical practice in our healthcare system. In this regard, professionals from different scientific societies who are involved in the management of the different MetS components reviewed the available scientific evidence focused basically on therapeutic aspects of MetS and developed a consensus document to establish recommendations on therapeutic goals that facilitate their homogenization in clinical decision-making.

Validation and recalibration of the Framingham cardiovascular disease risk models in an Australian Indigenous cohort

Background

In Australia, clinical guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular disease recommend the use of the Framingham model to help identify those at high risk of developing the disease. However, this model has not been validated for the Indigenous population.

Design

Cohort study.

Methods

Framingham models were applied to the Well Person’s Health Check (WPHC) cohort (followed 1998–2014), which included 1448 Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islanders from remote Indigenous communities in Far North Queensland. Cardiovascular disease risk predicted by the original and recalibrated Framingham models were compared with the observed risk in the WPHC cohort.

Results

The observed five- and 10-year cardiovascular disease probability of the WPHC cohort was 10.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 8.5–11.7) and 18.7% (95% CI: 16.7–21.0), respectively. The Framingham models significantly underestimated the cardiovascular disease risk for this cohort by around one-third, with a five-year cardiovascular disease risk estimate of 6.8% (95% CI: 6.4–7.2) and 10-year risk estimates of 12.0% (95% CI: 11.4–12.6) and 14.2% (95% CI: 13.5–14.8). The original Framingham models showed good discrimination ability (C-statistic of 0.67) but a significant lack of calibration (χ² between 82.56 and 134.67). After recalibration the 2008 Framingham model corrected the underestimation and improved the calibration for five-year risk prediction (χ² of 18.48).

Conclusions

The original Framingham models significantly underestimate the absolute cardiovascular disease risk for this Australian Indigenous population. The recalibrated 2008 Framingham model shows good performance on predicting five-year cardiovascular disease risk in this population and was used to calculate the first risk chart based on empirical validation using long-term follow-up data from a remote Australian Indigenous population.

Comparison of QRS Duration and Associated Cardiovascular Events in American Indian Men Versus Women (The Strong Heart Study)

Electrocardiographic QRS duration at rest is associated with sudden cardiac death and death from coronary heart disease in the general population. However, its relation to cardiovascular events in American Indians, a population with persistently high cardiovascular disease mortality, is unknown. The relation of QRS duration to incident cardiovascular disease during 17.2 years of follow-up was assessed in 1,851 male and female Strong Heart Study participants aged 45 to 74 years without known cardiovascular disease at baseline. Cox regression with robust standard error estimates was used to determine the association between quintiles of QRS duration and incident cardiovascular disease in gender-stratified analyses, adjusted for age, systolic blood pressure, hypertension, antihypertensive medication use, body mass index, current smoking, diabetes, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and albuminuria. In women only, QRS duration in the highest quintile (≥105 ms) conferred significantly higher risk of cardiovascular disease than QRS duration in the lowest quintile (64 to 84 ms) (hazard ratio 1.6, 95% CI 1.1 to 2.4) likely because of higher risks of coronary heart disease (hazard ratio 1.8, 95% CI 1.1 to 3.1) and myocardial infarction (hazard ratio 2.1, 95% CI 1.0 to 4.7). Furthermore, when added to the Strong Heart Study Coronary Heart Disease Risk Calculator, QRS duration significantly improved prediction of future coronary heart disease events in women (Net Reclassification Index 0.17, 95% CI 0.06 to 0.47). In conclusion, QRS duration is an independent predictor of cardiovascular disease in women in the Strong Heart Study cohort and may have value in estimating risk in populations with similar risk profiles and a high lifetime incidence of cardiovascular disease.

Risk Factors and Prediction of Stroke in a Population with High Prevalence of Diabetes: The Strong Heart Study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

American Indians have a high prevalence of diabetes and higher incidence of stroke than that of whites and blacks in the U.S. Stroke risk prediction models based on data from American Indians would be of clinical and public health value.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A total of 3483 (2043 women) Strong Heart Study participants free of stroke at baseline were followed from 1989 to 2010 for incident stroke. Overall, 297 stroke cases (179 women) were identified. Cox models with stroke-free time and risk factors recorded at baseline were used to develop stroke risk prediction models. Assessment of the developed stroke risk prediction models regarding discrimination and calibration was performed by an analogous C-statistic (C) and a version of the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic (HL), respectively, and validated internally through use of Bootstrapping methods.

RESULTS

Age, smoking status, alcohol consumption, waist circumference, hypertension status, an-tihypertensive therapy, fasting plasma glucose, diabetes medications, high/low density lipoproteins, urinary albumin/creatinine ratio, history of coronary heart disease/heart failure, atrial fibrillation, or Left ventricular hypertrophy, and parental history of stroke were identified as the significant optimal risk factors for incident stroke.

DISCUSSION

The models produced a C = 0.761 and HL = 4.668 (p = 0.792) for women, and a C = 0.765 and HL = 9.171 (p = 0.328) for men, showing good discrimination and calibration.

CONCLUSIONS

Our stroke risk prediction models provide a mechanism for stroke risk assessment designed for American Indians. The models may be also useful to other populations with high prevalence of obesity and/or diabetes for screening individuals for risk of incident stroke and designing prevention programs.

Derivation and Evaluation of a Risk-Scoring Tool to Predict Participant Attrition in a Lifestyle Intervention Project

Participant attrition in clinical trials and community-based interventions is a serious, common, and costly problem. In order to develop a simple predictive scoring system that can quantify the risk of participant attrition in a lifestyle intervention project, we analyzed data from the Special Diabetes Program for Indians Diabetes Prevention Program (SDPI-DP), an evidence-based lifestyle intervention to prevent diabetes in 36 American Indian and Alaska Native communities. SDPI-DP participants were randomly divided into a derivation cohort (n = 1600) and a validation cohort (n = 801). Logistic regressions were used to develop a scoring system from the derivation cohort. The discriminatory power and calibration properties of the system were assessed using the validation cohort. Seven independent factors predicted program attrition: gender, age, household income, comorbidity, chronic pain, site's user population size, and average age of site staff. Six factors predicted long-term attrition: gender, age, marital status, chronic pain, site's user population size, and average age of site staff. Each model exhibited moderate to fair discriminatory power (C statistic in the validation set: 0.70 for program attrition, and 0.66 for long-term attrition) and excellent calibration. The resulting scoring system offers a low-technology approach to identify participants at elevated risk for attrition in future similar behavioral modification intervention projects, which may inform appropriate allocation of retention resources. This approach also serves as a model for other efforts to prevent participant attrition.

Reduced Kidney Function Is Associated With Cardiometabolic Risk Factors, Prevalent and Predicted Risk of Cardiovascular Disease in Chinese Adults: Results From the REACTION Study

Background

Chronic kidney disease (CKD) increases cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. However, the association of mildly reduced kidney function with CVD risk is unclear.

Methods and Results

This study investigated the association of estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) with prevalent CVDs, 10‐year Framingham risk for coronary heart disease (CHD), and 10‐year risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular diseases (ASCVD) in 239 832 participants from the baseline of the Risk Evaluation of cAncers in Chinese diabeTic Individuals: a lONgitudinal study. With an interviewer‐assisted questionnaire, we collected information on CVD, including reported CHD, stroke, or myocardial infarction. Chronic Kidney Disease–Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD‐EPI) equation was used to calculate eGFR. Compared with individuals with normal eGFR (≥90 mL/min per 1.73 m²), those with decreased eGFR (75–89, 60–74, and <60 mL/min per 1.73 m²) had higher risk of prevalent obesity, diabetes mellitus, hypertension, and dyslipidemia in both men and women (P for trend all <0.001). Moreover, a significantly higher 10‐year Framingham risk for CHD and 10‐year risk for ASCVD was observed in both men and women with mildly decreased eGFR (60–89 mL/min per 1.73 m²).

Conclusions

Even mildly reduced eGFR (under 90 mL/min per 1.73 m²) is associated with elevated 10‐year Framingham risk for CHD and 10‐year ASCVD risk among Chinese adults.

The association of urine arsenic with prevalent and incident chronic kidney disease: evidence from the Strong Heart Study

BACKGROUND

Few studies have evaluated associations between low to moderate arsenic levels and chronic kidney disease (CKD). The objective was to evaluate the associations of inorganic arsenic exposure with prevalent and incident CKD in American Indian adults.

METHODS

We evaluated the associations of inorganic arsenic exposure with CKD in American Indians who participated in the Strong Heart Study in 3,851 adults ages 45-74 years in a cross-sectional analysis, and 3,119 adults with follow-up data in a prospective analysis. Inorganic arsenic, monomethylarsonate, and dimethylarsinate were measured in urine at baseline. CKD was defined as estimated glomerular filtration rate ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m, kidney transplant or dialysis.

RESULTS

CKD prevalence was 10.3%. The median (IQR) concentration of inorganic plus methylated arsenic species (total arsenic) in urine was 9.7 (5.8, 15.7) μg/L. The adjusted odds ratio (OR; 95% confidence interval) of prevalent CKD for an interquartile range in total arsenic was 0.7 (0.6, 0.8), mostly due to an inverse association with inorganic arsenic (OR: 0.4 [0.3, 0.4]). Monomethylarsonate and dimethylarsinate were positively associated with prevalent CKD after adjustment for inorganic arsenic (OR: 3.8 and 1.8). The adjusted hazard ratio of incident CKD for an IQR in sum of inorganic and methylated arsenic was 1.2 (1.03, 1.41). The corresponding HRs for inorganic arsenic, monomethylarsonate, and dimethylarsinate were 1.0 (0.9, 1.2), 1.2 (1.00, 1.3), and 1.2 (1.0, 1.4).

CONCLUSIONS

The inverse association of urine inorganic arsenic with prevalent CKD suggests that kidney disease affects excretion of inorganic arsenic. Arsenic species were positively associated with incident CKD. Studies with repeated measures are needed to further characterize the relation between arsenic and kidney disease development.

Development and validation of a predictive risk model for all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes

AIMS

Type 2 diabetes is common and is associated with an approximate 80% increase in the rate of mortality. Management decisions may be assisted by an estimate of the patient's absolute risk of adverse outcomes, including death. This study aimed to derive a predictive risk model for all-cause mortality in type 2 diabetes.

METHODS

We used primary care data from a large national multi-ethnic cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes in New Zealand and linked mortality records to develop a predictive risk model for 5-year risk of mortality. We then validated this model using information from a separate cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes.

RESULTS

26,864 people were included in the development cohort with a median follow up time of 9.1 years. We developed three models initially using demographic information and then progressively more clinical detail. The final model, which also included markers of renal disease, proved to give best prediction of all-cause mortality with a C-statistic of 0.80 in the development cohort and 0.79 in the validation cohort (7610 people) and was well calibrated. Ethnicity was a major factor with hazard ratios of 1.37 for indigenous Maori, 0.41 for East Asian and 0.55 for Indo Asian compared with European (P<0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

We have developed a model using information usually available in primary care that provides good assessment of patient's risk of death. Results are similar to models previously published from smaller cohorts in other countries and apply to a wider range of patient ethnic groups.

Arsenic Exposure, Arsenic Metabolism, and Incident Diabetes in the Strong Heart Study

OBJECTIVE

Little is known about arsenic metabolism in diabetes development. We investigated the prospective associations of low-moderate arsenic exposure and arsenic metabolism with diabetes incidence in the Strong Heart Study.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A total of 1,694 diabetes-free participants aged 45-75 years were recruited in 1989-1991 and followed through 1998-1999. We used the proportions of urine inorganic arsenic (iAs), monomethylarsonate (MMA), and dimethylarsinate (DMA) over their sum (expressed as iAs%, MMA%, and DMA%) as the biomarkers of arsenic metabolism. Diabetes was defined as fasting glucose ≥ 126 mg/dL, 2-h glucose ≥ 200 mg/dL, self-reported diabetes history, or self-reported use of antidiabetic medications.

RESULTS

Over 11,263.2 person-years of follow-up, 396 participants developed diabetes. Using the leave-one-out approach to model the dynamics of arsenic metabolism, we found that lower MMA% was associated with higher diabetes incidence. The hazard ratios (95% CI) of diabetes incidence for a 5% increase in MMA% were 0.77 (0.63-0.93) and 0.82 (0.73-0.92) when iAs% and DMA%, respectively, were left out of the model. DMA% was associated with higher diabetes incidence only when MMA% decreased (left out of the model) but not when iAs% decreased. iAs% was also associated with higher diabetes incidence when MMA% decreased. The association between MMA% and diabetes incidence was similar by age, sex, study site, obesity, and urine iAs concentrations.

CONCLUSIONS

Arsenic metabolism, particularly lower MMA%, was prospectively associated with increased incidence of diabetes. Research is needed to evaluate whether arsenic metabolism is related to diabetes incidence per se or through its close connections with one-carbon metabolism.

Cardiovascular risk assessment: a global perspective

An important strategy in primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is the early identification of high-risk individuals. Effective implementation of a strategy to identify these individuals in a clinical setting is reliant on the availability of appropriate CVD risk-assessment models and guideline recommendations. Several well-known models for CVD risk assessment have been developed and utilized in the USA and Europe, but might not be suitable for use in other regions or countries. Very few reports have discussed the development of risk-assessment models and recommendations from a global perspective. In this Review, we discuss why risk-assessment methods developed from studies in one geographical region or ethnic population might not be suitable for other regions or populations, and examine the availability and characteristics of predictive models in areas beyond the USA or Europe. In addition, we compare the differences in risk-assessment recommendations outlined in CVD clinical guidelines from developed and developing countries, and consider their potential effect on clinical practice. This overview of cardiovascular risk assessment from a global perspective can potentially guide low-to-middle-income countries in the development or validation of their own CVD risk-assessment models, and the formulation of recommendations in their own clinical guidelines according to local requirements.

Prehypertension and the risk of coronary heart disease in Asian and Western populations: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The results of studies on the association between prehypertension (blood pressure 120 to 139/80 to 89 mm Hg) and coronary heart disease (CHD) remain controversial. Furthermore, it is unclear whether prehypertension affects the risk of CHD in Asian and Western populations differently. This meta-analysis evaluated the risk of CHD associated with prehypertension and its different subgroups.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The PubMed and Embase databases were searched for prospective cohort studies with data on prehypertension and the risk of CHD. Studies were included if they reported multivariate-adjusted relative risks (RRs) with 95% CIs of CHD from prehypertension. A total of 591 664 participants from 17 prospective cohort studies were included. Prehypertension increased the risk of CHD (RR 1.43, 95% CI 1.26 to 1.63, P<0.001) compared with optimal blood pressure (<120/80 mm Hg). The risk of CHD was higher in Western than in Asian participants (Western: RR 1.70, 95% CI 1.49 to 1.94; Asian: RR 1.25, 95% CI 1.12 to 1.38; ratio of RRs 1.36, 95% CI 1.15 to 1.61). The population-attributable risk indicated that 8.4% of CHD in Asian participants was attributed to prehypertension, whereas this proportion was 24.1% in Western participants.

CONCLUSIONS

Prehypertension, even at the low range, is associated with an increased risk of CHD. This risk is more pronounced in Western than in Asian populations. These results supported the heterogeneity of target-organ damage caused by prehypertension and hypertension among different ethnicities and underscore the importance of prevention of CHD in Western patients with prehypertension.

Diabetes as risk factor for incident coronary heart disease in women compared with men: a systematic review and meta-analysis of 64 cohorts including 858,507 individuals and 28,203 coronary events

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS

A previous pooled analysis suggested that women with diabetes are at substantially increased risk of fatal CHD compared with affected men. Additional findings from several larger and more contemporary studies have since been published on the sex-specific associations between diabetes and incident CHD. We performed an updated systematic review with meta-analysis to provide the most reliable evidence of any sex difference in the effect of diabetes on subsequent risk of CHD.

METHODS

PubMed MEDLINE was systematically searched for prospective population-based cohort studies published between 1 January 1966 and 13 February 2013. Eligible studies had to have reported sex-specific RR estimates for incident CHD associated with diabetes and its associated variability that had been adjusted at least for age. Random-effects meta-analyses with inverse variance weighting were used to obtain sex-specific RRs and the RR ratio (RRR) (women:men) for incident CHD associated with diabetes.

RESULTS

Data from 64 cohorts, including 858,507 individuals and 28,203 incident CHD events, were included. The RR for incident CHD associated with diabetes compared with no diabetes was 2.82 (95% CI 2.35, 3.38) in women and 2.16 (95% CI 1.82, 2.56) in men. The multiple-adjusted RRR for incident CHD was 44% greater in women with diabetes than in men with diabetes (RRR 1.44 [95% CI 1.27, 1.63]) with no significant heterogeneity between studies (I (2) = 20%).

CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION

Women with diabetes have more than a 40% greater risk of incident CHD compared with men with diabetes. Sex disparities in pharmacotherapy are unlikely to explain much of the excess risk in women, but future studies are warranted to more clearly elucidate the mechanisms responsible for the substantial sex difference in diabetes-related risk of CHD.

Cadmium exposure and cancer mortality in a prospective cohort: the strong heart study

BACKGROUND

Cadmium (Cd) is a toxic metal classified as a human carcinogen by the International Agency for Research on Cancer.

OBJECTIVE

We evaluated the association of long-term Cd exposure, as measured in urine, with cancer mortality in American Indians from Arizona, Oklahoma, and North and South Dakota who participated in the Strong Heart Study during 1989-1991.

METHODS

The Strong Heart Study was a prospective cohort study of 3,792 men and women 45-74 years of age who were followed for up to 20 years. Baseline urinary Cd (U-Cd) was measured using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. We assessed cancer events by annual mortality surveillance.

RESULTS

The median (interquintile range) U-Cd concentration was 0.93 (0.55, 1.63) μg/g creatinine. After adjusting for sex, age, smoking status, cigarette pack-years, and body mass index, the adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) comparing the 80th versus the 20th percentiles of U-Cd were 1.30 (95% CI: 1.09, 1.55) for total cancer, 2.27 (95% CI: 1.58, 3.27) for lung cancer, and 2.40 (95% CI: 1.39, 4.17) for pancreatic cancer mortality. For all smoking-related cancers combined, the corresponding HR was 1.56 (95% CI: 1.24, 1.96). Cd was not significantly associated with liver, esophagus and stomach, colon and rectum, breast, prostate, kidney, or lymphatic and hematopoietic cancer mortality. On the basis of mediation analysis, we estimated that the percentage of lung cancer deaths due to tobacco smoking that could be attributed to Cd exposure was 9.0% (95% CI: 2.8, 21.8).

CONCLUSIONS

Low-to-moderate Cd exposure was prospectively associated with total cancer mortality and with mortality from cancers of the lung and pancreas. The implementation of population-based preventive measures to decrease Cd exposure could contribute to reducing the burden of cancer.

Relation of albuminuria to coronary microvascular function in patients with chronic kidney disease

The relation between albuminuria and coronary microvascular function in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) has not been fully investigated. Therefore, we sought to assess whether albuminuria is associated with coronary flow velocity reserve (CFVR) impairment in patients with CKD. Coronary flow study was prospectively performed in 175 patients with CKD. CFVR of the left anterior descending artery was measured to evaluate coronary microvascular function using transthoracic echocardiography. We divided the patients into 5 groups according to the stages of CKD and analyzed the effect of albuminuria. CFVR gradually decreased with an increase in CKD stages. CFVR in patients with albuminuria was lower than those without albuminuria. In groups with CKD stages 2 and 3, the patients with albuminuria showed lower CFVR than those without albuminuria. Multiple logistic regression analysis revealed that albuminuria, age, and gender were independently associated with CFVR impairment. Of these factors, albuminuria was the most powerful predictor with the risk ratio of 12.4 for CFVR impairment. In conclusion, the more the CKD stages progressed, the more severe CFVR was impaired. Albuminuria was associated with CFVR impairment in patients with CKD; even in mild-to-moderate CKD, patients with albuminuria showed further reduced coronary vasodilator capacity.

Insulin resistance, incident cardiovascular diseases, and decreased kidney function among nondiabetic American Indians: the Strong Heart Study

OBJECTIVE

Prevalence of insulin resistance is high in the American Indian population, likely as a result of the high prevalence of obesity. This condition may be influential for clinical outcomes such as cardiovascular disease (CVD) and decreased kidney function.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

Normal glucose tolerant (NGT) participants free of hypertension and CVD at the baseline examination (1989-1992) (N=964) of the Strong Heart Study were selected to explore the cross-sectional association between insulin resistance quantified by homeostasis model assessment (HOMA-IR) and demographic, behavioral, and cardiometabolic variables. The longitudinal association between baseline HOMA-IR and the development of CVD was also explored. The longitudinal association between baseline HOMA-IR and the development of high urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio was explored among nondiabetic participants (N=1,401).

RESULTS

Cross-sectionally, HOMA-IR was associated with sex, residence location, smoking, and high-risk cardiometabolic profile. Prospectively, insulin resistance is associated with the development of CVD and decreased kidney function in this population.

CONCLUSIONS

Insulin resistance may have an important role in the pathogenesis of CVD and chronic kidney disease. Since obesity contributes to the development of insulin resistance, intervention focusing on modifiable factors such as physical activity and weight control may reduce the development of these diseases.

Cadmium exposure and incident cardiovascular disease

BACKGROUND

Cadmium is a widespread toxic metal with potential cardiovascular effects, but no studies have evaluated cadmium and incident cardiovascular disease. We evaluated the association of urine cadmium concentration with cardiovascular disease incidence and mortality in a large population-based cohort.

METHODS

We conducted a prospective cohort study of 3348 American Indian adults 45-74 years of age from Arizona, Oklahoma, and North and South Dakota, who participated in the Strong Heart Study in 1989-1991. Urine cadmium was measured using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry. Follow-up extended through 31 December 2008.

RESULTS

The geometric mean cadmium level in the study population was 0.94 μg/g (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.92-0.96). We identified 1084 cardiovascular events, including 400 deaths. After adjustment for sociodemographic and cardiovascular risk factors, the hazard ratios (HRs) (comparing the 80th to the 20th percentile of urine cadmium concentrations) was 1.43 for cardiovascular mortality (95% CI = 1.21-1.70) and 1.34 for coronary heart disease mortality (1.10-1.63). The corresponding HRs for incident cardiovascular disease, coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure were 1.24 (1.11-1.38), 1.22 (1.08-1.38), 1.75 (1.17-2.59), and 1.39 (1.01-1.94), respectively. The associations were similar in most study subgroups, including never-smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Urine cadmium, a biomarker of long-term exposure, was associated with increased cardiovascular mortality and increased incidence of cardiovascular disease. These findings support that cadmium exposure is a cardiovascular risk factor.

Assessment of cardiovascular disease risk in South asian populations

Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD) burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk.

Prehypertension and incidence of cardiovascular disease: a meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Prospective cohort studies of prehypertension and the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD) are controversial after adjusting for other cardiovascular risk factors. This meta-analysis evaluated the association between prehypertension and CVD morbidity.

METHODS

Databases (PubMed, EMBASE and the Cochrane Library) and conference proceedings were searched for prospective cohort studies with data on prehypertension and cardiovascular morbidity. Two independent reviewers assessed the reports and extracted data. The relative risks (RRs) of CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke morbidity were calculated and reported with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Subgroup analyses were conducted on blood pressure, age, gender, ethnicity, follow-up duration, number of participants and study quality.

RESULTS

Pooled data included the results from 468,561 participants from 18 prospective cohort studies. Prehypertension elevated the risks of CVD (RR = 1.55; 95% CI = 1.41 to 1.71); CHD (RR = 1.50; 95% CI = 1.30 to 1.74); and stroke (RR = 1.71; 95% CI = 1.55 to 1.89). In the subgroup analyses, even for low-range prehypertension, the risk of CVD was significantly higher than for optimal BP (RR = 1.46, 95% CI = 1.32 to 1.62), and further increased with high-range prehypertension (RR = 1.80, 95% CI = 1.41 to 2.31). The relative risk was significantly higher in the high-range prehypertensive populations than in the low-range populations (χ2= 5.69, P = 0.02). There were no significant differences among the other subgroup analyses (P>0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Prehypertension, even in the low range, elevates the risk of CVD after adjusting for multiple cardiovascular risk factors.

Prediction of morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes

Introduction. The objective of this study was to create a tool that accurately predicts the risk of morbidity and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes according to an oral hypoglycemic agent. Materials and Methods. The model was based on a cohort of 33,067 patients with type 2 diabetes who were prescribed a single oral hypoglycemic agent at the Cleveland Clinic between 1998 and 2006. Competing risk regression models were created for coronary heart disease (CHD), heart failure, and stroke, while a Cox regression model was created for mortality. Propensity scores were used to account for possible treatment bias. A prediction tool was created and internally validated using tenfold cross-validation. The results were compared to a Framingham model and a model based on the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) for CHD and stroke, respectively. Results and Discussion. Median follow-up for the mortality outcome was 769 days. The numbers of patients experiencing events were as follows: CHD (3062), heart failure (1408), stroke (1451), and mortality (3661). The prediction tools demonstrated the following concordance indices (c-statistics) for the specific outcomes: CHD (0.730), heart failure (0.753), stroke (0.688), and mortality (0.719). The prediction tool was superior to the Framingham model at predicting CHD and was at least as accurate as the UKPDS model at predicting stroke. Conclusions. We created an accurate tool for predicting the risk of stroke, coronary heart disease, heart failure, and death in patients with type 2 diabetes. The calculator is available online at http://rcalc.ccf.org under the heading "Type 2 Diabetes" and entitled, "Predicting 5-Year Morbidity and Mortality." This may be a valuable tool to aid the clinician's choice of an oral hypoglycemic, to better inform patients, and to motivate dialogue between physician and patient.

Urine arsenic and prevalent albuminuria: evidence from a population-based study

BACKGROUND

Long-term arsenic exposure is a major global health problem. However, few epidemiologic studies have evaluated the association of arsenic with kidney measures. Our objective was to evaluate the cross-sectional association between inorganic arsenic exposure and albuminuria in American Indian adults from rural areas of Arizona, Oklahoma, and North and South Dakota.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional. SETTING & PARTIPANTS: Strong Heart Study locations in Arizona, Oklahoma, and North and South Dakota. 3,821 American Indian men and women aged 45-74 years with urine arsenic and albumin measurements.

PREDICTOR

Urine arsenic.

OUTCOMES

Urine albumin-creatinine ratio and albuminuria status.

MEASUREMENTS

Arsenic exposure was estimated by measuring total urine arsenic and urine arsenic species using inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (ICPMS) and high-performance liquid chromatography-ICPMS, respectively. Urine albumin was measured by automated nephelometric immunochemistry.

RESULTS

The prevalence of albuminuria (albumin-creatinine ratio ≥30 mg/g) was 30%. Median value for the sum of inorganic and methylated arsenic species was 9.7 (IQR, 5.8-15.6) μg per gram of creatinine. Multivariable-adjusted prevalence ratios of albuminuria (albumin-creatinine ratio ≥30 mg/g) comparing the 3 highest to lowest quartiles of the sum of inorganic and methylated arsenic species were 1.16 (95% CI, 1.00-1.34), 1.24 (95% CI, 1.07-1.43), and 1.55 (95% CI, 1.35-1.78), respectively (P for trend <0.001). The association between urine arsenic and albuminuria was observed across all participant subgroups evaluated and was evident for both micro- and macroalbuminuria.

LIMITATIONS

The cross-sectional design cannot rule out reverse causation.

CONCLUSIONS

Increasing urine arsenic concentrations were cross-sectionally associated with increased albuminuria in a rural US population with a high burden of diabetes and obesity. Prospective epidemiologic and mechanistic evidence is needed to understand the role of arsenic as a kidney disease risk factor.

Estimated GFR and incident cardiovascular disease events in American Indians: the Strong Heart Study

BACKGROUND

In populations with high prevalences of diabetes and obesity, estimating glomerular filtration rate (GFR) by using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) equation may predict cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk better than by using the Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) Study equation.

STUDY DESIGN

Longitudinal cohort study comparing the association of GFR estimated using either the CKD-EPI or MDRD Study equation with incident CVD outcomes.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

American Indians participating in the Strong Heart Study, a longitudinal population-based cohort with high prevalences of diabetes, CVD, and CKD.

PREDICTOR

Estimated GFR (eGFR) predicted using the CKD-EPI and MDRD Study equations.

OUTCOMES

Fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events, consisting of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure.

MEASUREMENTS

The association between eGFR and outcomes was explored in Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for traditional risk factors and albuminuria; the net reclassification index and integrated discrimination improvement were determined for the CKD-EPI versus MDRD Study equations.

RESULTS

In 4,549 participants, diabetes was present in 45%; CVD, in 7%; and stages 3-5 CKD, in 10%. During a median of 15 years, there were 1,280 cases of incident CVD, 929 cases of incident coronary heart disease, 305 cases of incident stroke, and 381 cases of incident heart failure. Reduced eGFR (<90 mL/min/1.73 m2) was associated with adverse events in most models. Compared with the MDRD Study equation, the CKD-EPI equation correctly reclassified 17.0% of 2,151 participants without incident CVD to a lower risk (higher eGFR) category and 1.3% (n=28) were reclassified incorrectly to a higher risk (lower eGFR) category.

LIMITATIONS

Single measurements of eGFR and albuminuria at study visits.

CONCLUSIONS

Although eGFR based on either equation had similar associations with incident CVD, coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure events, in those not having events, reclassification of participants to eGFR categories was superior using the CKD-EPI equation compared with the MDRD Study equation.

Differences in risk factors for coronary heart disease among diabetic and nondiabetic individuals from a population with high rates of diabetes: the Strong Heart Study

CONTEXT

Coronary heart disease (CHD) is the leading cause of death in the United States.

OBJECTIVE

This study compares differences in risk factors for CHD in diabetic vs. nondiabetic Strong Heart Study participants.

DESIGN

This was an observational study.

SETTING

The study was conducted at three centers in Arizona, Oklahoma, and North and South Dakota.

PARTICIPANTS

Data were obtained from 3563 of 4549 American Indians free of cardiovascular disease at baseline.

INTERVENTION(S)

CHD events were ascertained during follow-up.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

CHD events were classified using standardized criteria.

RESULTS

In diabetic and nondiabetic participants, 545 and 216 CHD events, respectively, were ascertained during follow-up (21,194 and 22,990 person-years); age- and sex-adjusted incidence rates of CHD were higher for the diabetic group (27.5 vs. 12.1 per 1,000 person-years). Risk factors for incident CHD common to both groups included older age, male sex, prehypertension or hypertension, and elevated low-density lipoprotein cholesterol. Risk factors specific to the diabetic group were lower high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, current smoking, macroalbuminuria, lower estimated glomerular filtration rate, use of diabetes medication, and longer duration of diabetes. Higher body mass index was a risk factor only for the nondiabetic group. The association of male sex and CHD was greater in those without diabetes than in those with diabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

In addition to higher incidence rates of CHD events in persons with diabetes compared with those without, the two groups differed in CHD risk factors. These differences must be recognized in estimating CHD risk and managing risk factors.

Panoptic total cardiovascular risk prediction using all predictors versus optimized risk assessment using variable subsets

Cardiovascular disease remains the primary cause of mortality and morbidity in the developed world. Risk scores can provide clinical risk stratification and many exist for use in cardiovascular disease prevention and treatment. Cardiovascular risk scores predict mortality, coronary heart disease and other vascular disease using risk predictors such as patient age, sex, BMI, smoking history, cholesterol level, blood pressure, glucose level or diabetes diagnosis, family history of cardiovascular disease and creatinine. While the risk scores in existence are excellent for risk stratification, actual use in a clinical environment is lagging behind the rate of new risk score creation. Future research should focus on how to utilize risk scores most effectively and efficiently in clinical practice.