Characterizing Covariant Trajectories of Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis Across Symptomatic and Functional Domains

Longitudinal Trajectories of Premorbid Social and Academic Adjustment in Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: Implications for Conversion

BACKGROUND AND HYPOTHESIS

Social and academic adjustment deteriorate in the years preceding a psychotic disorder diagnosis. Analyses of premorbid adjustment have recently been extended into the clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR) syndrome to identify risk factors and developmental pathways toward psychotic disorders. Work so far has been at the between-person level, which has constrained analyses of premorbid adjustment, clinical covariates, and conversion to psychosis.

STUDY DESIGN

Growth-curve models examined longitudinal trajectories in retrospective reports of premorbid social and academic adjustment from youth at CHR (n = 498). Interaction models tested whether known covariates of premorbid adjustment problems (attenuated negative symptoms, cognition, and childhood trauma) were associated with different premorbid adjustment trajectories in converters vs non-converters (ie, participants who did/did not develop psychotic disorders within 2-year follow-up).

STUDY RESULTS

Converters reported poorer social adjustment throughout the premorbid period. Converters who developed psychosis with an affective component reported poorer academic adjustment throughout the premorbid period than those who developed non-affective psychosis. Tentatively, baseline attenuated negative symptoms may have been associated with worsening social adjustment in the premorbid period for non-converters only. Childhood trauma impact was associated with fewer academic functioning problems among converters. Cognition effects did not differ based on conversion status.

CONCLUSIONS

Premorbid social function is an important factor in risk for conversion to psychosis. Negative symptoms and childhood trauma had different relationships to premorbid functioning in converters vs non-converters. Mechanisms linking symptoms and trauma to functional impairment may be different in converters vs non-converters, suggesting possible new avenues for risk assessment.

Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia (AMP® SCZ): Rationale and Study Design of the Largest Global Prospective Cohort Study of Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

This article describes the rationale, aims, and methodology of the Accelerating Medicines Partnership® Schizophrenia (AMP® SCZ). This is the largest international collaboration to date that will develop algorithms to predict trajectories and outcomes of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis and to advance the development and use of novel pharmacological interventions for CHR individuals. We present a description of the participating research networks and the data processing analysis and coordination center, their processes for data harmonization across 43 sites from 13 participating countries (recruitment across North America, Australia, Europe, Asia, and South America), data flow and quality assessment processes, data analyses, and the transfer of data to the National Institute of Mental Health (NIMH) Data Archive (NDA) for use by the research community. In an expected sample of approximately 2000 CHR individuals and 640 matched healthy controls, AMP SCZ will collect clinical, environmental, and cognitive data along with multimodal biomarkers, including neuroimaging, electrophysiology, fluid biospecimens, speech and facial expression samples, novel measures derived from digital health technologies including smartphone-based daily surveys, and passive sensing as well as actigraphy. The study will investigate a range of clinical outcomes over a 2-year period, including transition to psychosis, remission or persistence of CHR status, attenuated positive symptoms, persistent negative symptoms, mood and anxiety symptoms, and psychosocial functioning. The global reach of AMP SCZ and its harmonized innovative methods promise to catalyze the development of new treatments to address critical unmet clinical and public health needs in CHR individuals.

N400 event-related brain potential index of semantic processing and two-year clinical outcomes in persons at high risk for psychosis: A longitudinal study

The N400 event-related brain potential (ERP) semantic priming effect reflects greater activation of contextually related versus unrelated concepts in long-term semantic memory. Deficits in this measure have been found in persons with schizophrenia and those at clinical high risk (CHR) for this disorder. In CHR patients, we previously found that these deficits predict poorer social functional outcomes after 1 year. In the present study, we tested whether these deficits predicted greater psychosis-spectrum symptom severity and functional impairment over 2 years. We measured N400 semantic priming effects at baseline in CHR patients (n = 47) who viewed prime words each followed by a related/unrelated target word at stimulus-onset asynchronies (SOAs) of 300 or 750 ms. We measured psychosis-spectrum symptoms using the Structured Interview for Prodromal Symptoms and role and social functioning with the Global Functioning: Role and Social scales, at baseline, 1 (n = 29) and 2 years (n = 25). There was a significant interaction between the N400 semantic priming effect at the 300-ms SOA and time on GF:Role scores, indicating that, contrary to expectations, smaller baseline N400 semantic priming effects were associated with more improvement in role functioning from baseline to Year 1, but baseline N400 priming effects did not predict role functioning at Year 2. N400 priming effects were not significantly associated with different trajectories in psychosis-spectrum symptoms or social functioning. Thus, CHR patients' N400 semantic priming effects did not predict clinical outcomes over 2 years, suggesting that this ERP measure may have greater value as a state or short-term prognostic neurophysiological biomarker.

Developmental perspectives on the origins of psychotic disorders: The need for a transdiagnostic approach

Research on serious mental disorders, particularly psychosis, has revealed highly variable symptom profiles and developmental trajectories prior to illness-onset. As Dante Cicchetti pointed out decades before the term "transdiagnostic" was widely used, the pathways to psychopathology emerge in a system involving equifinality and multifinality. Like most other psychological disorders, psychosis is associated with multiple domains of risk factors, both genetic and environmental, and there are many transdiagnostic developmental pathways that can lead to psychotic syndromes. In this article, we discuss our current understanding of heterogeneity in the etiology of psychosis and its implications for approaches to conceptualizing etiology and research. We highlight the need for examining risk factors at multiple levels and to increase the emphasis on transdiagnostic developmental trajectories as a key variable associated with etiologic subtypes. This will be increasingly feasible now that large, longitudinal datasets are becoming available and researchers have access to more sophisticated analytic tools, such as machine learning, which can identify more homogenous subtypes with the ultimate goal of enhancing options for treatment and preventive intervention.

Psychosis superspectrum I: Nosology, etiology, and lifespan development

This review describes the Hierarchical Taxonomy of Psychopathology (HiTOP) model of psychosis-related psychopathology, the psychosis superspectrum. The HiTOP psychosis superspectrum was developed to address shortcomings of traditional diagnoses for psychotic disorders and related conditions including low reliability, arbitrary boundaries between psychopathology and normality, high symptom co-occurrence, and heterogeneity within diagnostic categories. The psychosis superspectrum is a transdiagnostic dimensional model comprising two spectra-psychoticism and detachment-which are in turn broken down into fourteen narrow components, and two auxiliary domains-cognition and functional impairment. The structure of the spectra and their components are shown to parallel the genetic structure of psychosis and related traits. Psychoticism and detachment have distinct patterns of association with urbanicity, migrant and ethnic minority status, childhood adversity, and cannabis use. The superspectrum also provides a useful model for describing the emergence and course of psychosis, as components of the superspectrum are relatively stable over time. Changes in psychoticism predict the onset of psychosis-related psychopathology, whereas changes in detachment and cognition define later course. Implications of the superspectrum for genetic, socio-environmental, and longitudinal research are discussed. A companion review focuses on neurobiology, treatment response, and clinical utility of the superspectrum, and future research directions.

Multi-trajectories of triglyceride-glucose index and lifestyle with Cardiovascular Disease: a cohort study

BACKGROUND

Previous studies using trajectory models focused on examining the longitudinal changes in triglyceride-glucose (TyG) levels and lifestyle scores separately, without exploring the joint evolution of these two factors. This study aimed to identify the multi-trajectories of TyG levels and lifestyle scores and assess their association with the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD).

METHODS

The study enrolled 47,384 participants from three health surveys of the Kailuan Study. The TyG index was computed as Ln [fasting triglycerides (mg/dL) × fasting blood glucose (mg/dL)/2], and the lifestyle scores were derived from five factors, including smoking, alcohol consumption, physical activity, sedentary behaviors, and salt intake. A group-based multi-trajectory model was adopted to identify multi-trajectories of TyG levels and lifestyle scores. The association of identified multi-trajectories with incident CVD was examined using Cox proportional hazard model.

RESULTS

Five distinct multi-trajectories of TyG levels and lifestyle scores were identified. During a median follow-up period of 10.98 years, 3042 participants developed CVD events (2481 strokes, 616 myocardial infarctions, and 55 co-current stroke and myocardial infarctions). In comparison to group 3 with the lowest TyG levels and the best lifestyle scores, the highest CVD risk was observed in group 5 characterized by the highest TyG levels and moderate lifestyle scores (HR = 1.76, 95% CI: 1.50-2.05). Group 2 with higher TyG levels and the poorest lifestyle scores had a 1.45-fold (95% CI 1.26-1.66) risk of CVD, and group 1 with lower TyG levels and poorer lifestyle scores had a 1.33-fold (95% CI 1.17-1.50) risk of CVD. Group 4, with moderate TyG levels and better lifestyle scores, exhibited the lowest CVD risk (HR = 1.32, 95% CI: 1.18-1.47).

CONCLUSIONS

Distinct multi-trajectories of TyG levels and lifestyle scores corresponded to differing CVD risks. The CVD risk caused by a high level TyG trajectory remained increased despite adopting healthier lifestyles. These findings underscored the significance of evaluating the combined TyG and lifestyle patterns longitudinally, and implementing early interventions to reduce CVD risk by lowering TyG levels.

Beyond verbal fluency in the verbal fluency task: semantic clustering as a predictor of remission in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis

BACKGROUND

There have been conflicting reports on whether conventional verbal fluency measures can predict the prognosis of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis. We aimed to investigate whether verbal fluency task measures that represent semantic processing more directly than conventional measures could be more reliable predictors of later remission in CHR individuals.

METHODS

We recruited CHR individuals and healthy controls to participate in a baseline verbal fluency assessment. We identified semantic clusters within the verbal fluency task responses based on cosine similarity between consecutive words, calculated from the word embedding model. Binomial logistic regression was performed to test whether average semantic cluster size and number of words produced could be predictors of remission in CHR individuals.

RESULTS

Our study sample included 96 CHR individuals and 178 healthy controls. According to clinical assessment at the last follow-up, 23 CHR individuals were classified as remitters and 73 as nonremitters, including 29 individuals who converted to psychosis. The CHR remitters showed larger average and maximum semantic cluster sizes than CHR nonremitters and healthy controls. Average semantic cluster size, but not the number of words, was a significant predictor of later remission in CHR individuals.

LIMITATIONS

Our sample included only native Korean speakers.

CONCLUSION

A verbal fluency task measure that more specifically represents semantic processing may be a better neurocognitive predictive marker for remission in CHR individuals than conventional verbal fluency measures. Our results provide an explanation for heterogeneous reports on whether verbal fluency can predict prognosis in CHR individuals and suggest that semantic processing is a putative cognitive predictor of their prognosis.

Recent Updates on Predicting Conversion in Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

This review highlights recent advances in the prediction and treatment of psychotic conversion. Over the past 25 years, research into the prodromal phase of psychotic illness has expanded with the promise of early identification of individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis who are likely to convert to psychosis.

RECENT FINDINGS

Meta-analyses highlight conversion rates between 20 and 30% within 2-3 years using existing clinical criteria while research into more specific risk factors, biomarkers, and refinement of psychosis risk calculators has exploded, improving our ability to predict psychotic conversion with greater accuracy. Recent studies highlight risk factors and biomarkers likely to contribute to earlier identification and provide insight into neurodevelopmental abnormalities, CHR subtypes, and interventions that can target specific risk profiles linked to neural mechanisms. Ongoing initiatives that assess longer-term (> 5-10 years) outcome of CHR participants can provide valuable information about predictors of later conversion and diagnostic outcomes while large-scale international biomarker studies provide hope for precision intervention that will alter the course of early psychosis globally.

Dynamic Prediction of Outcomes for Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis: A Joint Modeling Approach

Importance

Leveraging the dynamic nature of clinical variables in the clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) population has the potential to significantly improve the performance of outcome prediction models.

Objective

To improve performance of prediction models and elucidate dynamic clinical profiles using joint modeling to predict conversion to psychosis and symptom remission.

Design, Setting, and Participants

Data were collected as part of the third wave of the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS 3), which is a 9-site prospective longitudinal study. Participants were individuals aged 12 to 30 years who met criteria for a psychosis-risk syndrome. Clinical, neurocognitive, and demographic variables were collected at baseline and at multiple follow-up visits, beginning at 2 months and up to 24 months. An initial feature selection process identified longitudinal clinical variables that showed differential change for each outcome group across 2 months. With these variables, a joint modeling framework was used to estimate the likelihood of eventual outcomes. Models were developed and tested in a 10-fold cross-validation framework. Clinical data were collected between February 2015 and November 2018, and data were analyzed from February 2022 to December 2023.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Prediction models were built to predict conversion to psychosis and symptom remission. Participants met criteria for conversion if their positive symptoms reached the fully psychotic range and for symptom remission if they were subprodromal on the Scale of Psychosis-Risk Symptoms for a duration of 6 months or more.

Results

Of 488 included NAPLS 3 participants, 232 (47.5%) were female, and the mean (SD) age was 18.2 (3.4) years. Joint models achieved a high level of accuracy in predicting conversion (balanced accuracy [BAC], 0.91) and remission (BAC, 0.99) compared with baseline models (conversion: BAC, 0.65; remission: BAC, 0.60). Clinical variables that showed differential change between outcome groups across a 2-month span, including measures of symptom severity and aspects of functioning, were also identified. Further, intra-individual risks for each outcome were more negatively correlated when using joint models (r = -0.92; P < .001) compared with baseline models (r = -0.50; P < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this study, joint models significantly outperformed baseline models in predicting both conversion and remission, demonstrating that monitoring short-term clinical change may help to parse heterogeneous dynamic clinical trajectories in a CHR-P population. These findings could inform additional study of targeted treatment selection and could move the field closer to clinical implementation of prediction models.

Characterizing sustained social anxiety in individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis: trajectory, risk factors, and functional outcomes

BACKGROUND

While comorbidity of clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) status and social anxiety is well-established, it remains unclear how social anxiety and positive symptoms covary over time in this population. The present study aimed to determine whether there are more than one covariant trajectory of social anxiety and positive symptoms in the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study cohort (NAPLS 2) and, if so, to test whether the different trajectory subgroups differ in terms of genetic and environmental risk factors for psychotic disorders and general functional outcome.

METHODS

In total, 764 CHR individuals were evaluated at baseline for social anxiety and psychosis risk symptom severity and followed up every 6 months for 2 years. Application of group-based multi-trajectory modeling discerned three subgroups based on the covariant trajectories of social anxiety and positive symptoms over 2 years.

RESULTS

One of the subgroups showed sustained social anxiety over time despite moderate recovery in positive symptoms, while the other two showed recovery of social anxiety below clinically significant thresholds, along with modest to moderate recovery in positive symptom severity. The trajectory group with sustained social anxiety had poorer long-term global functional outcomes than the other trajectory groups. In addition, compared with the other two trajectory groups, membership in the group with sustained social anxiety was predicted by higher levels of polygenic risk for schizophrenia and environmental stress exposures.

CONCLUSIONS

Together, these analyses indicate differential relevance of sustained v. remitting social anxiety symptoms in the CHR-P population, which in turn may carry implications for differential intervention strategies.

Forecasting prognostic trajectories with mismatch negativity in early psychosis

BACKGROUND

Prognostic heterogeneity in early psychosis patients yields significant difficulties in determining the degree and duration of early intervention; this heterogeneity highlights the need for prognostic biomarkers. Although mismatch negativity (MMN) has been widely studied across early phases of psychotic disorders, its potential as a common prognostic biomarker in early periods, such as clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis and first-episode psychosis (FEP), has not been fully studied.

METHODS

A total of 104 FEP patients, 102 CHR individuals, and 107 healthy controls (HCs) participated in baseline MMN recording. Clinical outcomes were assessed; 17 FEP patients were treatment resistant, 73 FEP patients were nonresistant, 56 CHR individuals were nonremitters (15 transitioned to a psychotic disorder), and 22 CHR subjects were remitters. Baseline MMN amplitudes were compared across clinical outcome groups and tested for utility prognostic biomarkers using binary logistic regression.

RESULTS

MMN amplitudes were greatest in HCs, intermediate in CHR subjects, and smallest in FEP patients. In the clinical outcome groups, MMN amplitudes were reduced from the baseline in both FEP and CHR patients with poor prognostic trajectories. Reduced baseline MMN amplitudes were a significant predictor of later treatment resistance in FEP patients [Exp(β) = 2.100, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.104-3.993, p = 0.024] and nonremission in CHR individuals [Exp(β) = 1.898, 95% CI 1.065-3.374, p = 0.030].

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that MMN could be used as a common prognostic biomarker across early psychosis periods, which will aid clinical decisions for early intervention.

Cognitive-Behavioral Social Skills Training: Outcome of a Randomized Controlled Trial for Youth at Risk of Psychosis

Aim

Difficulties in social functioning have been observed in youth at clinical high-risk (CHR) of psychosis even in those who do not go on to develop a psychotic illness. Few treatment studies have attempted to improve social functioning in this population. The aim of this study was to conduct a randomized trial comparing the effects of Cognitive-Behavioral Social Skills Training (CBSST) with a supportive therapy (ST).

Methods

Both CBSST and ST were weekly group therapies, delivered over 18 weeks. This was a 2-arm trial with single-blinded ratings and intention-to-treat analyses. Assessments occurred at baseline, end-of-treatment, and 12 months after the baseline assessment. The primary outcome was social and role functioning and defeatist performance attitudes were the secondary outcome. Attenuated positive and negative symptoms, anxiety, depression, self-efficacy, and beliefs about self and others were examined as exploratory outcomes.

Results

There were no significant differences between the 2 groups at baseline or either of the 2 follow-ups. However, at follow-ups, in each group there were significant improvements in clinical symptoms. These could not be attributed to group treatment since there was no control or wait-list group.

Conclusions

Since poor social functioning is one of the most observed difficulties in CHR individuals, and a decline in social functioning may be a significant predictor of later transition to psychosis, future work will be needed to find effective treatments for this decline in functioning for CHR youth.

A network analysis of anxiety, depressive, and psychotic symptoms and functioning in children and adolescents at clinical high risk for psychosis

Objective

Youths at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) are characterized by a high prevalence of anxiety and depressive disorders. The present study aimed at developing and analyzing a network structure of CHR-P symptom domains (i.e., positive, negative, disorganization, and general subclinical psychotic symptoms), depressive and anxiety symptoms, and general functioning.

Methods

Network analysis was applied to data on 111 CHR-P children and adolescents (M age = 14.1), who were assessed using the Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes, the Children's Depression Inventory, the Children's Global Assessment Scale, and the Multidimensional Anxiety Scale for Children.

Results

In the network, negative and disorganization symptoms showed the strongest association (r = 0.71), and depressive and anxiety symptoms showed dense within-domain connections, with a main bridging role played by physical symptoms of anxiety. The positive symptom cluster was not associated with any other node. The network stability coefficient (CS) was slightly below 0.25, and observed correlations observed ranged from 0.35 to 0.71.

Conclusion

The lack of association between subclinical positive symptoms and other network variables confirmed the independent nature of subclinical positive symptoms from comorbid symptoms, which were found to play a central role in the analyzed network. Complex interventions should be developed to target positive and comorbid symptoms, prioritizing those with the most significant impact on functioning and the most relevance for the young individual, through a shared decision-making process. Importantly, the results suggest that negative and disorganization symptoms, as well as depressive and anxiety symptoms, may be targeted simultaneously.

Development of the Brief Educational Guide for Individuals in Need (BEGIN): A psychoeducation intervention for individuals at risk for psychosis

AIM

Identification of individuals with psychosis risk (PR) through screening and specialized assessment is becoming more widespread in an effort to promote early intervention and improve recovery outcomes. PR individuals report interest in psychoeducation, though such interventions are currently lacking. Our goal was to develop a structured PR psychoeducation intervention grounded in theory and stakeholder feedback.

METHODS

By following a step-by-step intervention development model, we identified relevant conceptual frameworks, developed the content and format, and obtained stakeholder feedback. This process resulted in a 5-session PR psychoeducation intervention, Brief Educational Guide for Individuals in Need (BEGIN), with content conveyed visually via a slideshow presentation. PR individuals (n = 5) and parents of PR individuals (n = 5) reviewed BEGIN's content and format, and provided feedback through semi-structured qualitative interviews. Major themes were identified through iterative thematic analysis.

RESULTS

PR individuals and parents had a positive impression of BEGIN's materials and step-by-step format and psychoeducation about the PR condition. They indicated that the intervention was likely to encourage agency. PR participants emphasized the importance of a patient's decision regarding whether their family member(s) should participate in BEGIN. Parents reported that BEGIN is an important first step in treatment and offers a safe therapeutic environment. Feedback was then utilized to modify the intervention.

CONCLUSIONS

BEGIN is desired by consumers and may lay the foundation for future engagement with treatment by facilitating agency. A feasibility trial is underway and future studies are needed to measure outcomes (e.g., treatment engagement) and evaluate BEGIN as an evidence-based PR psychoeducation model.

Application of the unified protocol for the transdiagnostic treatment of comorbid emotional disorders in patients with ultra-high risk of developing psychosis: A randomized trial study protocol

Background

Cognitive Behavioral Therapy is delivered in most of the early intervention services for psychosis in different countries around the world. This approach has been demonstrated to be effective in decreasing or at least delaying the onset of psychosis. However, none of them directly affect the comorbidity of these types of patients that is often the main cause of distress and dysfunctionality. The Unified Protocol for the Transdiagnostic Treatment of Emotional Disorders (UP) is a psychological intervention that combines cognitive-behavioral and third-generation techniques that address emotional dysregulation as an underlying mechanism that these disorders have in common. The application of this intervention could improve the comorbid emotional symptoms of these patients.

Materials and methods

The study is a randomized controlled trial in which one group receives immediate UP plus standard intervention and the other is placed on a waiting list to receive UP 7 months later, in addition to standard care in one of our early psychosis programs. The sample will be 42 patients with UHR for psychosis with comorbid emotional symptoms. The assessment is performed at baseline, at the end of treatment, and at 3-months’ follow-up, and includes: general psychopathology, anxiety and depression, positive and negative emotions, emotional dysregulation, personality, functionality, quality of life, cognitive distortions, insight, and satisfaction with the UP intervention.

Discussion

This will be the first study of the efficacy, acceptability, and viability of the UP in a sample of young adults with UHR. The results of this study may have clinical implications, contributing to improving the model of care for young people who consult for underlying psychotic, anxiety, and/or depressive symptoms that can lead to high distress and dysfunctionality.

Clinical trial registration

[https://clinicaltrials.gov/], identifier [NCT04929938].

Time-course of clinical symptoms in young people at ultra-high risk for transition to psychosis

BACKGROUND

Ultra-high risk (UHR) people are a heterogeneous group with variable outcomes. This study aimed at (a) estimating trajectories of response to treatment to identify homogeneous subgroups; (b) establishing the impact on these trajectories of known predictors of outcome in UHR subjects.

METHODS

Mixed models of growth curves and latent class growth analysis (LCGA) were applied to the 24-item brief psychiatric rating scale (BPRS) to measure the response to treatment over 2 years in 125 UHR participants. Group differences were tested on sociodemographic variables and clinical indicators that are known to affect the outcome in UHR people.

RESULTS

BPRS scores decreased across all tested models, with a greater decrease for affective and positive symptoms than for all other dimensions of BPRS. Past admissions to the hospital for psychiatric reasons other than psychosis and the presence of a decline in premorbid functioning before the episode were associated with a slower decrease of BPRS score. LCGA identified three classes, one (82% of participants) with a progressive decrease in the BPRS scores, a second class with a moderate improvement (10%), and a third with no improvement (8%). Those in the 'no improvement' class had a higher chance of receiving a diagnosis of psychosis within the spectrum of schizophrenia.

CONCLUSION

Most UHR individuals that are treated within a specialized service undergo substantial improvement in their psychopathology, but some seem resistant to the protocol of treatment and need close reevaluation within the first 12 months of treatment.

N400 event-related brain potential and functional outcome in persons at clinical high risk for psychosis: A longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

The N400 event-related brain potential (ERP) semantic priming effect is thought to reflect activation by meaningful stimuli of related concepts in semantic memory and has been found to be deficient in schizophrenia. We tested the hypothesis that, among individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis, N400 semantic priming deficits predict worse symptomatic and functional outcomes after one year.

METHODS

We measured N400 semantic priming at baseline in CHR patients (n = 47) and healthy control participants (n = 25) who viewed prime words each followed by a related or unrelated target word, at stimulus-onset asynchronies (SOAs) of 300 or 750 ms. We measured patients' psychosis-like symptoms with the Scale of Prodromal Symptoms (SOPS) Positive subscale, and academic/occupational and social functioning with the Global Functioning (GF):Role and Social scales, respectively, at baseline and one-year follow-up (n = 29).

RESULTS

CHR patients exhibited less N400 semantic priming than controls across SOAs; planned contrasts indicated this difference was significant at the 750-ms but not the 300-ms SOA. In patients, reduced N400 semantic priming at the 750-ms SOA was associated with lower GF:Social scores at follow-up, and greater GF:Social decrements from baseline to follow-up. Patients' N400 semantic priming was not associated with SOPS Positive or GF:Role scores at follow-up, or change in these from baseline to follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

In CHR patients, reduced N400 semantic priming at baseline predicted worse social functioning after one year, and greater decline in social functioning over this period. Thus, the N400 may be a useful prognostic biomarker of real-world functional outcome in CHR patients.

Cognitive behavioural social skills training: Methods of a randomized controlled trial for youth at risk of psychosis

AIM

Poor functioning has become a hallmark of many youth at clinical high-risk (CHR) of psychosis. Even for those who do not make the transition to psychosis remain troubled by functional deficits and a decline in functioning increases the odds of transitioning to psychosis. There are very few treatment studies that have attempted to improve social and role functioning. The aim of this paper is to describe the methods of a treatment study to address social and role functioning in CHR.

METHODS

This was a randomized controlled trial of cognitive-behavioural social skills training (CBSST) versus a supportive therapy. CBSST combines elements of cognitive behaviour therapy (CBT) and social skills training (SST), two evidence-based treatments for schizophrenia. By adding CBT to SST to target functioning outcomes, SST can be used to train new social skills, and thoughts that interfere with skilled performance in the real world can be addressed using CBT. We developed an adapted version of CBSST, more appropriate for the age range and illness severity of typical CHR individuals, to attempt to show improvements in social and role functioning for these young people.

RESULTS

Two hundred and three participants were recruited for this study. Results include initial baseline data.

CONCLUSION

This article describes the baseline methodology of a CHR youth who have difficulties in social and/or role functioning. It is one of the first clinical trials to address this significant problem.

Individualized Prediction of Prodromal Symptom Remission for Youth at Clinical High Risk for Psychosis

The clinical high-risk period before a first episode of psychosis (CHR-P) has been widely studied with the goal of understanding the development of psychosis; however, less attention has been paid to the 75%-80% of CHR-P individuals who do not transition to psychosis. It is an open question whether multivariable models could be developed to predict remission outcomes at the same level of performance and generalizability as those that predict conversion to psychosis. Participants were drawn from the North American Prodrome Longitudinal Study (NAPLS3). An empirically derived set of clinical and demographic predictor variables were selected with elastic net regularization and were included in a gradient boosting machine algorithm to predict prodromal symptom remission. The predictive model was tested in a comparably sized independent sample (NAPLS2). The classification algorithm developed in NAPLS3 achieved an area under the curve of 0.66 (0.60-0.72) with a sensitivity of 0.68 and specificity of 0.53 when tested in an independent external sample (NAPLS2). Overall, future remitters had lower baseline prodromal symptoms than nonremitters. This study is the first to use a data-driven machine-learning approach to assess clinical and demographic predictors of symptomatic remission in individuals who do not convert to psychosis. The predictive power of the models in this study suggest that remission represents a unique clinical phenomenon. Further study is warranted to best understand factors contributing to resilience and recovery from the CHR-P state.

Probability of Transition to Psychosis in Individuals at Clinical High Risk: An Updated Meta-analysis

IMPORTANCE

Estimating the current likelihood of transitioning from a clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) to psychosis holds paramount importance for preventive care and applied research.

OBJECTIVE

To quantitatively examine the consistency and magnitude of transition risk to psychosis in individuals at CHR-P.

DATA SOURCES

PubMed and Web of Science databases until November 1, 2020. Manual search of references from previous articles.

STUDY SELECTION

Longitudinal studies reporting transition risks in individuals at CHR-P.

DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS

Meta-analysis compliant with Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) and Meta-analysis of Observational Studies in Epidemiology (MOOSE) reporting guidelines; independent data extraction, manually and through digitalization of Kaplan-Meier curves.

MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURES

Primary effect size was cumulative risk of transition to psychosis at 0.5, 1, 1.5, 2, 2.5, 3, 4, and more than 4 years' follow-up, estimated using the numbers of individuals at CHR-P transitioning to psychosis at each time point. These analyses were complemented by meta-analytical Kaplan-Meier curves and speed of transition to psychosis (hazard rate). Random-effects meta-analysis, between-study heterogeneity analysis, study quality assessment, and meta-regressions were conducted.

RESULTS

A total of 130 studies and 9222 individuals at CHR-P were included. The mean (SD) age was 20.3 (4.4) years, and 5100 individuals (55.3%) were male. The cumulative transition risk was 0.09 (95% CI, 0.07-0.10; k = 37; n = 6485) at 0.5 years, 0.15 (95% CI, 0.13-0.16; k = 53; n = 7907) at 1 year, 0.20 (95% CI, 0.17-0.22; k = 30; n = 5488) at 1.5 years, 0.19 (95% CI, 0.17-0.22; k = 44; n = 7351) at 2 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.21-0.29; k = 19; n = 3114) at 2.5 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.22-0.29; k = 29; n = 4029) at 3 years, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.23-0.30; k = 16; n = 2926) at 4 years, and 0.28 (95% CI, 0.20-0.37; k = 14; n = 2301) at more than 4 years. The cumulative Kaplan-Meier transition risk was 0.08 (95% CI, 0.08-0.09; n = 4860) at 0.5 years, 0.14 (95% CI, 0.13-0.15; n = 3408) at 1 year, 0.17 (95% CI, 0.16-0.19; n = 2892) at 1.5 years, 0.20 (95% CI, 0.19-0.21; n = 2357) at 2 years, 0.25 (95% CI, 0.23-0.26; n = 1444) at 2.5 years, 0.27 (95% CI, 0.25-0.28; n = 1029) at 3 years, 0.28 (95% CI, 0.26-0.29; n = 808) at 3.5 years, 0.29 (95% CI, 0.27-0.30; n = 737) at 4 years, and 0.35 (95% CI, 0.32-0.38; n = 114) at 10 years. The hazard rate only plateaued at 4 years' follow-up. Meta-regressions showed that a lower proportion of female individuals (β = -0.02; 95% CI, -0.04 to -0.01) and a higher proportion of brief limited intermittent psychotic symptoms (β = 0.02; 95% CI, 0.01-0.03) were associated with an increase in transition risk. Heterogeneity across the studies was high (I2 range, 77.91% to 95.73%).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this meta-analysis, 25% of individuals at CHR-P developed psychosis within 3 years. Transition risk continued increasing in the long term. Extended clinical monitoring and preventive care may be beneficial in this patient population.

Impact of Comorbid Affective Disorders on Longitudinal Clinical Outcomes in Individuals at Ultra-high Risk for Psychosis

INTRODUCTION

Diagnoses of anxiety and/or depression are common in subjects at Ultra-High Risk for Psychosis (UHR) and associated with extensive functional impairment. Less is known about the impact of affective comorbidities on the prospective course of attenuated psychotic symptoms (APS).

METHOD

Latent class mixed modelling identified APS trajectories in 331 UHR subjects assessed at baseline, 6, 12, and 24 months follow-up. The prognostic value of past, baseline, and one-year DSM-IV depressive or anxiety disorders on trajectories was investigated using logistic regression, controlling for confounders. Cox proportional hazard analyses investigated associations with transition risk.

RESULTS

46.8% of participants fulfilled the criteria for a past depressive disorder, 33.2% at baseline, and 15.1% at one-year follow-up. Any past, baseline, or one-year anxiety disorder was diagnosed in 42.9%, 37.2%, and 27.0%, respectively. Participants were classified into one of three latent APS trajectory groups: (1) persistently low, (2) increasing, and (3) decreasing. Past depression was associated with a higher risk of belonging to the increasing trajectory group, compared to the persistently low (OR = 3.149, [95%CI: 1.298-7.642]) or decreasing group (OR = 3.137, [1.165-8.450]). In contrast, past (OR = .443, [.179-1.094]) or current (OR = .414, [.156-1.094]) anxiety disorders showed a trend-level association with a lower risk of belonging to the increasing group compared to the persistently low group. Past depression was significantly associated with a higher risk of transitioning to psychosis (HR = 2.123, [1.178-3.828]).

CONCLUSION

A past depressive episode might be a particularly relevant risk factor for an unfavorable course of APS in UHR individuals. Early affective disturbances may be used to advance detection, prognostic, and clinical strategies.

Prediction of clinical outcomes beyond psychosis in the ultra-high risk for psychosis population

AIM

Several prediction models have been introduced to identify young people at greatest risk of transitioning to psychosis. To date, none has examined the possibility of developing a clinical prediction model of outcomes other than transition. The aims of this study were to examine the association between baseline clinical predictors and outcomes including, but not limited to, transition to psychosis in young people at risk for psychosis, and to develop a prediction model for these outcomes.

METHODS

Several evidence-based variables previously associated with transition to psychosis and some important clinical comorbidities experienced by ultra-high risk (UHR) individuals were identified in 202 UHR individuals. Secondary analysis of the Neurapro clinical trial were conducted to investigate the associations between these variables and favourable (remission and recovery) or unfavourable (transition to psychosis, no remission, any recurrence and relapse) clinical outcomes. Logistic regression, best subset selection, Akaike Information Criterion and receiver operating characteristic curves were used to seek the best prediction model for clinical outcomes from all combinations of possible predictors.

RESULTS

When considered individually, only higher general psychopathology levels (P = .023) was associated with the unfavourable outcomes. Prediction models suggest that general psychopathology and functioning are predictive of unfavourable outcomes.

CONCLUSION

The predictive performance of the resulting models was modest and further research is needed. Nonetheless, when designing early intervention centres aiming to support individuals in the early phases of a mental disorder, the proper assessment of general psychopathology and functioning should be considered in order to inform interventions and length of care provided.

Examining service-user perspectives for the development of a good outcome checklist for individuals at clinical high risk for psychosis

AIMS

Around 15% of patients at clinical high risk for psychosis (CHR-P) experience symptomatic remission and functional recovery at follow-up, yet the definition of a good outcome (GO) in this population requires further development. Outcomes are typically designed and rated by clinicians rather than patients, to measure adverse as opposed to GOs. Here we investigate how CHR-P subjects define a GO, with the aim of developing a checklist that could be used to measure GO in this clinical group.

METHODS

A set of GO-focused questions were designed in collaboration with a service-user. CHR-P patients (n = 48) were asked to rate the importance of items that could indicate short-term (1 year) and long-term (5 years) GO. These items were then ranked using the relative importance index (RII).

RESULTS

Patients rated improvement in subjective wellbeing (RII = 0.829) and non-specific presenting symptoms (RII = 0.817) amongst the factors most important for indicating GO in the short-term, and improved resilience (RII = 0.879) and negative symptoms (RII = 0.858) as key items for indicating long-term GO. Patients regarded building resilience (RII = 0.842) and having support from mental health services (RII = 0.833) as being protective for their mental health. These measures were included in a preliminary 12-item GO checklist (GO-12) for assessing GO in CHR-P subjects.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient-defined measures of GO included items that are not incorporated into conventional measures of outcomes in CHR-P subjects, such as subjective wellbeing and resilience. Integrating patient-defined metrics of GO may improve the assessment of outcomes in the CHR-P population.

Preventive interventions for individuals at ultra high risk for psychosis: An updated and extended meta-analysis

Intervention at the earliest illness stage, in ultra or clinical high-risk individuals, or indicated prevention, currently represents the most promising strategy to ameliorate, delay or prevent psychosis. We review the current state of evidence and conduct a broad-spectrum meta-analysis of various outcomes: transition to psychosis, attenuated positive and negative psychotic symptoms, mania, depression, anxiety, general psychopathology, symptom-related distress, functioning, quality of life, and treatment acceptability. 26 randomized controlled trials were included. Meta-analytically pooled interventions reduced transition rate (risk ratio [RR] = 0.57, 95%CI 0.41-0.81) and attenuated positive psychotic symptoms at 12-months (standardized mean difference = -0.15, 95%CI = -0.28--0.01). When stratified by intervention type (pharmacological, psychological), only the pooled effect of psychological interventions on transition rate was significant. Cognitive behavioral therapy (CBT) was associated with a reduction in incidence at 12-months (RR = 0.52, 95%CI = 0.33-0.82) and 18-48-months (RR = 0.60, 95%CI = 0.42-0.84), but not 6-months. Findings at 12-months and 18-48-months were robust in sensitivity and subgroup analyses. All other outcomes were non-significant. To date, effects of trialed treatments are specific to transition and, a lesser extent, attenuated positive symptoms, highlighting the future need to target other symptom domains and functional outcomes. Sound evidence supports CBT in reducing transition and the value of intervening at this illness stage. STUDY REGISTRATION: Research Registry ID: reviewregistry907.

Schizophrenia and the Environment: Within-Person Analyses May be Required to Yield Evidence of Unconfounded and Causal Association-The Example of Cannabis and Psychosis

Hypotheses about the link between cannabis use and psychosis apply to the within-person level but have been tested mostly at the between-person level. We used a within-person design, in which a person serves as his own control, thus removing the need to consider confounding by any fixed (genetic and nongenetic) characteristic to study the prospective association between cannabis use and the incidence of attenuated psychotic experiences, and vice versa, adjusted for time-varying confounders. We combined 2 general population cohorts (at baseline: Early Developmental Stages of Psychopathology Study, n = 1395; Netherlands Mental Health Survey and Incidence Study-2, n = 6603), which applied a similar methodology to study cannabis use and attenuated psychotic experiences with repeated interviews (T0, T1, T2, and T3) over a period of approximately 10 years. The Hausman test was significant for the adjusted models, indicating the validity of the fixed-effects model. In the adjusted fixed-effects model, prior cannabis use was associated with psychotic experiences (aOR = 7.03, 95% CI: 2.39, 20.69), whereas prior psychotic experiences were not associated with cannabis use (aOR = 0.59, 95% CI: 0.21, 1.71). Longitudinal studies applying random-effects models to study associations between risk factors and mental health outcomes, as well as reverse causality, may not yield precise estimates. Cannabis likely impacts causally on psychosis but not the other way round.

Induced ideas of reference during social unrest and pandemic in Hong Kong

Ideas of reference (IOR) are often implicated in predicting psychosis onset. They have been conceptualized to present on a continuum, from oversensitive psychological reactions to delusional thoughts. It is however unknown to what extent IOR may be triggered by collective environmental stress. We obtained timely data from 9873 individuals to assess IOR in relation to trauma exposure in the 2019-2020 social unrest in Hong Kong. Two levels of IOR are distinguished: attenuated IOR (IOR-A), being the experience of feeling particularly referred to within a group; and exclusive IOR (IOR-E), the experience of feeling exclusively referred to while others are not. Logistic regressions showed that event-based rumination was a shared predictor for IOR-A (OR = 1.07, CI = 1.03-1.10) and IOR-E (OR = 1.09, CI = 1.02-1.17). For IOR-A, three categories of social unrest-related traumatic events (TEs) were significant predictors, including being attacked or having experienced sexual violence (OR = 4.14, CI = 1.93-8.85), being arrested (OR = 4.48, CI = 1.99-10.10), and being verbally abused (OR = 2.66, CI = 1.28-5.53). Being arrested was significant for IOR-E (OR = 3.87, CI = 1.03-14.52), though not when rumination was included. Education level also significantly predicted IOR-E (OR = 0.72, CI = 0.52-0.99). Further analysis revealed that rumination significantly mediated between TEs and IOR severity (β = 0.26, SE = 0.01, CI = 0.24-0.28). The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that IOR-A and IOR-E occur as levels on a continuum, but each has some distinctive correlates. Extrinsic events may play a more prominent role in IOR-A, while intrinsic factors, such as cognitive capacity, may play a more prominent role in IOR-E. The involvement of rumination across the IOR spectrum suggests an opportunity for intervention.

Forecasting Remission From the Psychosis Risk Syndrome With Mismatch Negativity and P300: Potentials and Pitfalls

Clinical outcomes vary for individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis, ranging from conversion to a psychotic disorder to full remission from the risk syndrome. Given that most CHR individuals do not convert to psychosis, recent research efforts have turned toward identifying specific predictors of CHR remission, a task that is conceptually and empirically dissociable from the identification of predictors of conversion to psychosis, and one that may reveal specific biological characteristics that confer resilience to psychosis and provide further insights into the mechanisms associated with the pathogenesis of schizophrenia and those underlying a transient CHR syndrome. Such biomarkers may ultimately facilitate the development of novel early interventions and support the optimization of individualized care. In this review, we focus on two event-related brain potential measures, mismatch negativity and P300, that have attracted interest as predictors of future psychosis among CHR individuals. We describe several recent studies examining whether mismatch negativity and P300 predict subsequent CHR remission and suggest that intact mismatch negativity and P300 may reflect the integrity of specific neurocognitive processes that confer resilience against the persistence of the CHR syndrome and its associated risk for future transition to psychosis. We also highlight several major methodological concerns associated with these studies that apply to the broader literature examining predictors of CHR remission. Among them is the concern that studies that predict dichotomous remission versus nonremission and/or dichotomous conversion versus nonconversion outcomes potentially confound remission and conversion effects, a phenomenon we demonstrate with a data simulation.

Depression: An actionable outcome for those at clinical high-risk

Comorbid diagnoses are common in youth who are at clinical high-risk (CHR) for developing psychosis, with depression being the most common. The aim of this paper is to examine depression over two years in a large sample of CHR youth who do not make the transition to psychosis, considering both categorical and dimensional ratings of depression severity. The sample consisted of 267 CHR youth who were followed for two years. Based on DSM-IV diagnoses over this time period, 100 CHR individuals never received a diagnosis of depression, 64 individuals continuously met criteria for depression, 92 individuals received a diagnosis of depression at one or more timepoints, and 11 participants had a diagnosis of depression only at 24-months. These groupings were supported by six-monthly ratings on the Calgary Depression Scale. The majority of this sample experienced a major depressive episode on more than one occasion, suggesting that depression and depressive symptoms identify a domain of substantial unmet clinical need. Recommendations are that depression in CHR youth and young adults should be monitored more frequently and that there is a need for clinical trials to address depression systematically in this vulnerable population.

Prediction and Prevention in the Clinical High-Risk for Psychosis Paradigm: A Review of the Current Status and Recommendations for Future Directions of Inquiry

Prediction and prevention of negative clinical and functional outcomes represent the two primary objectives of research conducted within the clinical high-risk for psychosis (CHR-P) paradigm. Several multivariable "risk calculator" models have been developed to predict the likelihood of developing psychosis, although these models have not been translated to clinical use. Overall, less progress has been made in developing effective interventions. In this paper, we review the existing literature on both prediction and prevention in the CHR-P paradigm and, primarily, outline ways in which expanding and combining these paths of inquiry could lead to a greater improvement in individual outcomes for those most at risk.

Counterpoint. Early intervention for psychosis risk syndromes: Minimizing risk and maximizing benefit

BACKGROUND

Malhi et al. in this issue critique the clinical high risk (CHR) syndrome for psychosis.

METHOD

Response to points of critique.

RESULTS

We agree that inconsistency in CHR nomenclature should be minimized. We respectfully disagree on other points. In our view: a) individuals with CHR and their families need help, using existing interventions, even though we do not yet fully understand disease mechanisms; b) substantial progress has been made in identification of biomarkers; c) symptoms used to identify CHR are specific to psychotic illnesses; d) CHR diagnosis is not "extremely difficult"; e) the pattern of progression, although heterogenous, is discernible; f) "psychosis-like symptoms" are common but are not used to identify CHR; and g) on the point described as 'the real risk,' CHR diagnosis does not frequently cause harmful stigma.

DISCUSSION

Malhi et al.'s arguments do not fairly characterize progress in the CHR field nor efforts to minimize stigma. That said, much work remains in areas of consistent nomenclature, mechanisms of disease, dissecting heterogeneity, and biomarkers. With regard to what the authors term the "real risk" of stigma associated with a CHR "label," however, our view is that avoiding words like "risk" and "psychosis" reinforces the stigma that both they and we mean to oppose. Moreover, patients and their families benefit from being given a term that describes what is happening to them.

Progression from being at-risk to psychosis: next steps

Over the past 20 years there has been a great deal of research into those considered to be at risk for developing psychosis. Much has been learned and studies have been encouraging. The aim of this paper is to offer an update of the current status of research on risk for psychosis, and what the next steps might be in examining the progression from CHR to psychosis. Advances have been made in accurate prediction, yet there are some methodological issues in ascertainment, diagnosis, the use of data-driven selection methods and lack of external validation. Although there have been several high-quality treatment trials the heterogeneity of this clinical high-risk population has to be addressed so that their treatment needs can be properly met. Recommendations for the future include more collaborative research programmes, and ensuring they are accessible and harmonized with respect to criteria and outcomes so that the field can continue to move forward with the development of large collaborative consortiums as well as increased funding for multisite projects.