MEESSI-AHF risk score performance to predict multiple post-index event and post-discharge short-term outcomes

Predicting One-Year Mortality after Discharge Using Acute Heart Failure Score (AHFS)

Background: Acute heart failure (AHF) represents a leading cause of unscheduled hospital stays, frequent rehospitalisations, and mortality worldwide. The aim of our study was to develop a bedside prognostic tool, a multivariable predictive risk score, that is useful in daily practice, thus providing an early prognostic evaluation at admission and an accurate risk stratification after discharge in patients with AHF. Methods: This study is a subanalysis of the STADE HF study, which is a single-centre, prospective, randomised controlled trial enrolling 123 patients admitted to hospital for AHF. Here, 117 patients were included in the analysis, due to data exhaustivity. Regression analysis was performed to determine predictive variables for one-year mortality and/or rehospitalisation after discharge. Results: During the first year after discharge, 23 patients died. After modellisation, the variables considered to be of prognostic relevance in terms of mortality were (1) non-ischaemic aetiology of HF, (2) elevated creatinine levels at admission, (3) moderate/severe mitral regurgitation, and (4) prior HF hospitalisation. We designed a linear model based on these four independent predictive variables, and it showed a good ability to score and predict patient mortality with an AUC of 0.84 (95%CI: 0.76-0.92), thus denoting a high discriminative ability. A risk score equation was developed. During the first year after discharge, we observed as well that 41 patients died or were rehospitalised; hence, while searching for a model that could predict worsening health conditions (i.e., death and/or rehospitalisation), only two predictive variables were identified: non-ischaemic HF aetiology and previous HF hospitalisation (also included in the one-year mortality model). This second modellisation showed a more discrete discriminative ability with an AUC of 0.67 (95% C.I. 0.59-0.77). Conclusions: The proposed risk score and model, based on readily available predictive variables, are promising and useful tools to assess, respectively, the one-year mortality risk and the one-year mortality and/or rehospitalisations in patients hospitalised for AHF and to assist clinicians in the management of patients with HF aiming at improving their prognosis.

The different risk of new-onset, chronic, worsening, and advanced heart failure: A systematic review and meta-regression analysis

AIMS

Heart failure (HF) is a chronic and progressive syndrome associated with a poor prognosis. While it may seem intuitive that the risk of adverse outcomes varies across the different stages of HF, an overview of these risks is lacking. This study aims to determine the risk of all-cause mortality and HF hospitalizations associated with new-onset HF, chronic HF (CHF), worsening HF (WHF), and advanced HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

We performed a systematic review of observational studies from 2012 to 2022 using five different databases. The primary outcomes were 30-day and 1-year all-cause mortality, as well as 1-year HF hospitalization. Studies were pooled using random effects meta-analysis, and mixed-effects meta-regression was used to compare the different HF groups. Among the 15 759 studies screened, 66 were included representing 862 046 HF patients. Pooled 30-day mortality rates did not reveal a significant distinction between hospital-admitted patients, with rates of 10.13% for new-onset HF and 8.11% for WHF (p = 0.10). However, the 1-year mortality risk differed and increased stepwise from CHF to advanced HF, with a rate of 8.47% (95% confidence interval [CI] 7.24-9.89) for CHF, 21.15% (95% CI 17.78-24.95) for new-onset HF, 26.84% (95% CI 23.74-30.19) for WHF, and 29.74% (95% CI 24.15-36.10) for advanced HF. Readmission rates for HF at 1 year followed a similar trend.

CONCLUSIONS

Our meta-analysis of observational studies confirms the different risk for adverse outcomes across the distinct HF stages. Moreover, it emphasizes the negative prognostic value of WHF as the first progressive stage from CHF towards advanced HF.

Impact of the MEESSI-AHF tool to guide disposition decision-making in patients with acute heart failure in the emergency department: a before-and-after study

OBJECTIVES

To determine the impact of risk stratification using the MEESSI-AHF (Multiple Estimation of risk based on the Emergency department Spanish Score In patients with acute heart failure) scale to guide disposition decision-making on the outcomes of ED patients with acute heart failure (AHF), and assess the adherence of emergency physicians to risk stratification recommendations.

METHODS

This was a prospective quasi-experimental study (before/after design) conducted in eight Spanish EDs which consecutively enrolled adult patients with AHF. In the pre-implementation stage, the admit/discharge decision was performed entirely based on emergency physician judgement. During the post-implementation phase, emergency physicians were advised to 'discharge' patients classified by the MEESSI-AHF scale as low risk and 'admit' patients classified as increased risk. Nonetheless, the final decision was left to treating emergency physicians. The primary outcome was 30-day all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes were days alive and out of hospital, in-hospital mortality and 30-day post-discharge combined adverse event (ED revisit, hospitalisation or death).

RESULTS

The pre-implementation and post-implementation cohorts included 1589 and 1575 patients, respectively (median age 85 years, 56% females) with similar characteristics, and 30-day all-cause mortality was 9.4% and 9.7%, respectively (post-implementation HR=1.03, 95% CI=0.82 to 1.29). There were no differences in secondary outcomes or in the percentage of patients entirely managed in the ED without hospitalisation (direct discharge from the ED, 23.5% vs 24.4%, OR=1.05, 95% CI=0.89 to 1.24). Adjusted models did not change these results. Emergency physicians followed the MEESSI-AHF-based recommendation on patient disposition in 70.9% of cases (recommendation over-ruling: 29.1%). Physicians were more likely to over-rule the recommendation when 'discharge' was recommended (56.4%; main reason: need for hospitalisation for a second diagnosis) than when 'admit' was recommended (12.8%; main reason: no appreciation of severity of AHF decompensation by emergency physician), with an OR for over-ruling the 'discharge' compared with the 'admit' recommendation of 8.78 (95% CI=6.84 to 11.3).

CONCLUSIONS

Implementing the MEESSI-AHF risk stratification tool in the ED to guide disposition decision-making did not improve patient outcomes.

MEESSI-AHF score to estimate short-term prognosis of acute heart failure patients in the Emergency Department: a prospective and multicenter study

BACKGROUND

The assessment of acute heart failure (AHF) prognosis is primordial in emergency setting. Although AHF management is exhaustively codified using mortality predictors, there is currently no recommended scoring system for assessing prognosis. The European Society of Cardiology (ESC) recommends a comprehensive assessment of global AHF prognosis, considering in-hospital mortality, early rehospitalization rates and the length of hospital stay.

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to prospectively evaluate the performance of the Multiple Estimation of risk based on the Emergency department Spanish Score In patients with AHF (MEESSI-AHF) score in estimating short prognosis according to the ESC guidelines.

DESIGN, SETTINGS AND PATIENTS

A multicenter study was conducted between November 2020, and June 2021. Adult patients who presented to eleven French hospitals for AHF were prospectively included.

OUTCOME MEASURES AND ANALYSIS

According to MEESSI-AHF score, patients were stratified in four categories corresponding to mortality risk: low-, intermediate-, high- and very high-risk groups. The primary outcome was the number of days alive and out of the hospital during the 30-day period following admission to the Emergency Department (ED).

RESULTS

In total, 390 patients were included. The number of days alive and out of the hospital decreased significatively with increasing MEESSI-AHF risk groups, ranging from 21.2 days (20.3-22.3 days) for the low-risk, 20 days (19.3-20.5 days) for intermediate risk,18.6 days (17.6-19.6 days) for the high-risk and 17.9 days (16.9-18.9 days) very high-risk category.

CONCLUSION

Among patients admitted to ED for an episode of AHF, the MEESSI-AHF score estimates with good performance the number of days alive and out of the hospital.

Examining predictors for 6-month mortality and healthcare utilization for patients admitted for heart failure in the acute care setting

BACKGROUND

Acute heart failure (AHF) is a leading cause of mortality and hospitalization. Past studies reported increased healthcare spending in the last year of life in high-income countries, and this has been characterized as inappropriate healthcare resource utilization. The study aimed to examine potentially (in)appropriate healthcare utilization by comparing healthcare utilization patterns across predicted and observed 6-month mortality among patients admitted for HF.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective cohort study among patients presenting at the emergency department (ED) of a tertiary hospital with HF as primary diagnosis and admitted after their ED discharge. We used LASSO Cox proportional hazards models to predict 6-month mortality, and estimated healthcare utilization patterns of predicted and observed mortality across inpatient healthcare services.

RESULTS

3946 patients were admitted into the emergency department with a primary diagnosis of HF. From 57 candidate variables, 17 were retained in the final 6- month mortality model (C-statistic 0.66). Patients who died within 6-months of ED admission had longer length of stay (LOS) and less inpatient surgeries than those who survived. Patients with a greater predicted mortality risk were admitted to the ICU more often and had a longer LOS than those with a lower predicted mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

There were significant differences in healthcare resource utilization in patients admitted for AHF across predicted versus actual mortality. Lack of information on patients' preferences prevents the estimation of (in)appropriateness. Future studies should account for these considerations to estimate inappropriate healthcare utilization among these patients.

An update on utilising brain natriuretic peptide for risk stratification, monitoring and guiding therapy in heart failure

INTRODUCTION

Heart failure (HF) is a dominant health problem with an overall poor prognosis. Natriuretic peptides (NPs) are upregulated in HF as a compensatory mechanism. They have extensively been used for diagnosis and risk stratification.

AREAS COVERED

This review addresses the history and physiology of NPs in order to understand their current role in clinical practice. It further provides a detailed and updated narrative review on the utility of those biomarkers for risk stratification, monitoring, and guiding therapy in HF.

EXPERT OPINION

NPs show excellent predictive ability in heart failure patients, both in acute and chronic settings. Understanding their pathophysiology and their modifications in specific situations is key for an adequate interpretation in specific clinical scenarios in which their prognostic value may be weaker or less well evaluated. To better promote risk stratification in HF, NPs should be integrated with other predictive tools to develop multiparametric risk models. Both inequalities of access to NPs and evidence caveats and limitations will need to be addressed by future research in the coming years.

Performance of cardiovascular disease risk prediction equations in more than 14 000 survivors of cancer in New Zealand primary care: a validation study

BACKGROUND

People with cancer have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease. Risk prediction equations developed in New Zealand accurately predict 5-year cardiovascular disease risk in a general primary care population in the country. We assessed the performance of these equations for survivors of cancer in New Zealand.

METHODS

For this validation study, patients aged 30-74 years from the PREDICT open cohort study, which was used to develop the New Zealand cardiovascular disease risk prediction equations, were included in the analysis if they had a primary diagnosis of invasive cancer at least 2 years before the date of the first cardiovascular disease risk assessment. The risk prediction equations are sex-specific and include the following predictors: age, ethnicity, socioeconomic deprivation index, family history of cardiovascular disease, smoking status, history of atrial fibrillation and diabetes, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol ratio, and preventive pharmacotherapy (blood-pressure-lowering, lipid-lowering, and antithrombotic drugs). Calibration was assessed by comparing the mean predicted 5-year cardiovascular disease risk, estimated using the risk prediction equations, with the observed risk across deciles of risk, for men and women, and according to the three clinical 5-year cardiovascular disease risk groups in New Zealand guidelines (<5%, 5% to <15%, and ≥15%). Discrimination was assessed by Harrell's C statistic.

FINDINGS

14 263 patients were included in the study. The mean age was 61 years (SD 9) for men and 60 years (SD 8) for women, with a median follow-up of 5·8 years for men and 5·7 years for women. The observed cardiovascular disease risk was underpredicted by a maximum of 2·5% in male and 3·2% in female decile groups. When patients were grouped according to clinical risk groups, observed cardiovascular disease risk was underpredicted by less than 2% in the lower risk groups and overpredicted by 2·2% for men and 3·3% for women in the highest risk group. Harrell's C statistics were 0·67 (SE 0·01) for men and 0·73 (0·01) for women.

INTERPRETATION

The New Zealand cardiovascular disease risk prediction equations reasonably predicted the observed 5-year cardiovascular disease risk in survivors of cancer in the country, in whom risk prediction was considered clinically appropriate. Prediction could be improved by adding cancer-specific variables and considering competing risks. Our findings suggest that the equations are reasonable clinical tools for use in survivors of cancer in New Zealand.

FUNDING

Auckland Medical Research Foundation, Health Research Council of New Zealand.

Performance of current risk stratification models for predicting mortality in patients with heart failure: a systematic review and meta-analysis

AIMS

There are several risk scores designed to predict mortality in patients with heart failure (HF). This study aimed to assess performance of risk scores validated for mortality prediction in patients with acute HF (AHF) and chronic HF.

METHODS AND RESULTS

MEDLINE and Scopus were searched from January 2015 to January 2021 for studies which internally or externally validated risk models for predicting all-cause mortality in patients with AHF and chronic HF. Discrimination data were analysed using C-statistics, and pooled using generic inverse-variance random-effects model. Nineteen studies (n = 494 156 patients; AHF: 24 762; chronic HF mid-term mortality: 62 000; chronic HF long-term mortality: 452 097) and 11 risk scores were included. Overall, discrimination of risk scores was good across the three subgroups: AHF mortality [C-statistic: 0.76 (0.68-0.83)], chronic HF mid-term mortality [1 year; C-statistic: 0.74 (0.68-0.79)], and chronic HF long-term mortality [≥2 years; C-statistic: 0.71 (0.69-0.73)]. MEESSI-AHF [C-statistic: 0.81 (0.80-0.83)] and MARKER-HF [C-statistic: 0.85 (0.80-0.89)] had an excellent discrimination for AHF and chronic HF mid-term mortality, respectively, whereas MECKI had good discrimination [C-statistic: 0.78 (0.73-0.83)] for chronic HF long-term mortality relative to other models. Overall, risk scores predicting short-term mortality in patients with AHF did not have evidence of poor calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow P > 0.05). However, risk models predicting mid-term and long-term mortality in patients with chronic HF varied in calibration performance.

CONCLUSIONS

The majority of recently validated risk scores showed good discrimination for mortality in patients with HF. MEESSI-AHF demonstrated excellent discrimination in patients with AHF, and MARKER-HF and MECKI displayed an excellent discrimination in patients with chronic HF. However, modest reporting of calibration and lack of head-to-head comparisons in same populations warrant future studies.

Short-term outcomes by chronic betablocker treatment in patients presenting to emergency departments with acute heart failure: BB-EAHFE

AIMS

To evaluate the association between chronic treatment with betablockers (BB) and the severity of decompensation and short-term outcomes of patients with acute heart failure (AHF).

METHODS AND RESULTS

We consecutively included all patients presenting with AHF to 45 Spanish emergency departments (ED) during six different time-periods between 2007 and 2018. Patients were stratified according to whether they were on chronic treatment with BB at the time of ED consultation. Those receiving BB were compared (adjusted odds ratio-OR-with 95% confidence interval-CI-) with those not receiving BB group in terms of in-hospital and 7-day all-cause mortality, need for hospitalization, and prolonged length of stay (≥7 days). Among the 17 923 recruited patients (median age: 80 years; 56% women), 7795 (43%) were on chronic treatment with BB. Based on the MEESSI-AHF risk score, those on BB were at lower risk. In-hospital mortality was observed in 1310 patients (7.4%), 7-day mortality in 765 (4.3%), need for hospitalization in 13 428 (75.0%), and prolonged length of stay (43.3%). After adjustment for confounding, those on chronic BB were at lower risk for in-hospital all-cause mortality (OR = 0.85, 95% CI = 0.79-0.92, P < 0.001); 7-day all-cause mortality (OR = 0.77, 95% CI = 0.70-0.85, P < 0.001); need for hospitalization (OR = 0.89, 95% CI = 0.85-0.94, P < 0.001); prolonged length of stay (OR = 0.90, 95% CI = 0.86-0.94, P < 0.001). A propensity matching approach yielded consistent findings.

CONCLUSION

In patients presenting to ED with AHF, those on BB had better short-term outcomes than those not receiving BB.

Predictive ability of the sequential organ failure assessment score for in-hospital mortality in patients with cardiac critical illnesses: a nationwide observational study

AIMS

Several studies have reported a high predictive ability of the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score for in-hospital mortality specifically for patients with cardiac critical illnesses, however, differences according to the admission classification (surgical or non-surgical) are unknown. The present study aimed to evaluate the predictive ability of the SOFA score in surgical and non-surgical patients with cardiac critical illnesses.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using the Japanese nationwide Diagnosis Procedure Combination database, we identified patients with cardiac critical illnesses, defined as patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) and treated by cardiologists or cardiovascular surgeons as their physicians in charge from April 2018 to March 2020. The discriminatory ability of the SOFA score for in-hospital mortality was assessed by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Among 52 819 eligible patients with available data on their SOFA scores, 33 526 (64%) were postoperative cardiac surgeries. The median SOFA score on ICU admission was 5.0 (interquartile range, 2.0-8.0) and overall in-hospital mortality 6.8%. The AUROC of the SOFA score was 0.75 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.75-0.76]. In the subgroup analyses, the AUROCs were 0.76 (95% CI, 0.74-0.77) in the surgical patients, 0.83 (95% CI, 0.83-0.84) in the non-surgical patients, and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.87-0.89) in the non-surgical acute coronary syndrome patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The predictive ability of the SOFA score on the day of ICU admission for in-hospital mortality was confirmed to be acceptable in the patients with cardiac critical illnesses and varied according to the admission classification and primary diagnoses.

Early risk stratification in patients with cardiogenic shock irrespective of the underlying cause - The Cardiogenic Shock Score (CSS)

AIMS

Early risk stratification is essential to guide treatment in cardiogenic shock (CS). Existing CS risk scores were derived in selected cohorts, without accounting for the heterogeneity of CS. The aim of this study was to develop a universal risk score (CSS) for all CS patients, irrespective of underlying cause.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Within a registry of 1,308 CS unselected patients admitted to a tertiary-care hospital between 2009 and 2019, a Cox regression model was fitted to derive the CSS, with 30-day mortality as main outcome. CSS's predictive ability was compared to the IABP-Shock-II score, the CardShock score and SCAI classification by C-indices and validated in an external cohort of 934 CS patients. Based on the Cox regression, 9 predictors were included in the CSS: age, sex, acute myocardial infarction (AMI-CS), systolic blood pressure, heart rate, pH, lactate, glucose and cardiac arrest. CSS had the highest C-index in the overall cohort (0.740 vs. 0.677/0.683 for IABP-Shock-II score/CardShock score), in patients with AMI-CS (0.738 vs. 0.675/0.689 for IABP-Shock-II score/CardShock score) and in patients with non-AMI-CS (0.734 vs. 0.677/0.669 for IABP-Shock-II score/CardShock score). In the external validation cohort, the CSS had a C-index of 0.73, which was higher than all other tested scores.

CONCLUSION

The CSS provides improved information on the risk of death in unselected patients with CS compared to existing scores, irrespective of its cause. Because it is based on point-of-care variables which can be obtained even in critical situations, the CSS has the potential to guide treatment decisions in CS. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Prognostic impact of high-sensitive troponin on 30-day mortality in patients with acute heart failure and different classes of left ventricular ejection fraction

High-sensitive troponin T (hs-TnT) is increasingly used for prognostication in patients with acute heart failure (AHF). However, uncertainty exists whether hs-TnT shows comparable prognostic performance in patients with heart failure and different classes of left ventricular ejection fraction (LV-EF). The aim of the present study was to assess the prognostic value of hs-TnT for the prediction of 30-day mortality depending on the presence of HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF), HF with mid-range LV-EF (HFmrEF) and HF with reduced LV-EF (HFrEF) in patients with acutely decompensated HF. Patients admitted to our institution due to AHF were retrospectively included. Clinical information was gathered from electronic and paper-based patient charts. Patients with myocardial infarction were excluded. A total of 847 patients were enrolled into the present study. A significant association was found between HF groups and hs-TnT (regression coefficient -0.018 for HFpEF vs. HFmrEF/HFrEF; p = 0.02). The area under the curve (AUC) of hs-TnT for the prediction of 30-mortality was significantly lower in patients with HFpEF (AUC 0.61) than those with HFmrEF (AUC 0.80; p = 0.01) and HFrEF (AUC 0.73; p = 0.04). Hs-TnT was not independently associated with 30-day outcome in the HFpEF group (OR 1.48 [95%-CI 0.89–2.46]; p = 0.13) in contrast to the HFmrEF group (OR 4.53 [95%-CI 1.85–11.1]; p < 0.001) and HFrEF group (OR 2.58 [95%-CI 1.57–4.23]; p < 0.001). Prognostic accuracy of hs-TnT in patients hospitalized for AHF regarding 30-day mortality is significantly lower in patients with HFpEF compared to those with HFmrEF and HFrEF.

Past, present, and future of mortality risk scores in the contemporary cardiac intensive care unit

Risk stratification dates to the dawn of the cardiac intensive care unit (CICU). As the CICU has evolved from a dedicated unit caring for patients with acute myocardial infarction to a complex healthcare environment encompassing a broad array of acute and chronic cardiovascular pathology, an expanding array of risk scores are available that can be applied to CICU patients. Most of these scores were designed for use either in patients with a specific acute cardiovascular diagnosis or unselected critically ill patients, and risk scores developed in other populations often underperform in the CICU. More recently, risk scores have been developed specific to the CICU population, demonstrating improved performance. All existing risk scores have relevant limitations, both in terms of performance and applicability to patient care. Risk scores have been predominantly developed to predict short-term mortality, either by quantifying severity of illness or by incorporating other risk factors for mortality. It is essential to distinguish mortality risk attributable to severity of illness, which may be modifiable through intervention, from mortality risk attributable to non-modifiable risk factors. This review discusses established risk scores applicable to the CICU population, details how risk score performance is characterized, describes how new risk scores can be developed, explains how the information provided by risk scores can be used in clinical practice, and highlights how novel risk stratification approaches can be developed.

Improvement in Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire Scores After a Self-Care Intervention in Patients With Acute Heart Failure Discharged From the Emergency Department

BACKGROUND

We conducted a secondary analysis of changes in the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ)-12 over 30 days in a randomized trial of self-care coaching versus structured usual care in patients with acute heart failure who were discharged from the emergency department.

METHODS

Patients in 15 emergency departments completed the KCCQ-12 at emergency department discharge and at 30 days. We compared change in KCCQ-12 scores between the intervention and usual care arms, adjusted for enrollment KCCQ-12 and demographic characteristics. We used linear regression to describe changes in KCCQ-12 summary scores and logistic regression to characterize clinically meaningful KCCQ-12 subdomain changes at 30 days.

RESULTS

There were 350 patients with both enrollment and 30-day KCCQ summary scores available; 166 allocated to usual care and 184 to the intervention arm. Median age was 64 years (interquartile range, 55-70), 37% were female participants, 63% were Black, median KCCQ-12 summary score at enrollment was 47 (interquartile range, 33-64). Self-care coaching resulted in significantly greater improvement in health status compared with structured usual care (5.4-point greater improvement, 95% CI, 1.12-9.68; P=0.01). Improvements in health status in the intervention arm were driven by improvements within the symptom frequency (adjusted odds ratio, 1.62 [95% CI, 1.01-2.59]) and quality of life (adjusted odds ratio, 2.39 [95% CI, 1.46-3.90]) subdomains.

CONCLUSIONS

In this secondary analysis, patients with acute heart failure who received a tailored, self-care intervention after emergency department discharge had clinically significant improvements in health status at 30 days compared with structured usual care largely due to improvements within the symptom frequency and quality of life subdomains of the KCCQ-12. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov; Unique identifier: NCT02519283.

Predicting mortality in cardiac care unit patients: external validation of the Mayo cardiac intensive care unit admission risk score

AIMS

The Mayo Cardiac Intensive Care Unit Admission Risk Score (M-CARS) had excellent performance in predicting in-hospital mortality in the US population. We sought to validate the M-CARS for in-hospital and post-discharge mortality in Asian patients admitted to the cardiac care unit (CCU).

METHODS AND RESULTS

Patients admitted to the CCU of a tertiary care centre between July 2015 and December 2019 were included into the study. Patients with intra-hospital transfer to the CCU due to intensive care unit overflow, postoperative cardiac surgery, or for monitoring after elective procedures were excluded. Cardiac arrest, cardiogenic shock, respiratory failure, Braden skin score, blood urea nitrogen, anion gap, and red cell distribution width, were used to calculate the M-CARS. Patients were stratified into three groups, according to the M-CARS (<2, 2-6, >6). Of 1988 patients in the study, 30.1% were female with a median age of 65 years. Prevalence of cardiogenic shock and respiratory failure at admission were 2.8% and 4.5%, respectively. One hundred and seventeen patients died during the admission (mortality rate of 5.9%). The in-hospital mortality rate in patients with M-CARS of <2, 2-6, and >6 was 1.1%, 9.8%, and 35.5%, respectively. C-statistic of M-CARS for in-hospital mortality was 0.840 (95% CI 0.805-0.873); whereas, it was 0.727 (95% CI 0.690-0.761) for 1-year post-discharge mortality. Calibration plot showed good agreement between predicted and observed in-hospital mortality in the majority of patients.

CONCLUSIONS

The M-CARS was useful in our study, in terms of discrimination and calibration. M-CARS identified high-risk patients in CCU, who had unacceptably high mortality rate during hospital stay and thereafter.

Survival analyses in cardiovascular research, part II: statistical methods in challenging situations

This article is the second of a series of 2 educational articles. In the first article, we described the basic concepts of survival analysis, summarizing the common statistical methods and providing a set of recommendations to guide the strategy of survival analyses in randomized clinical trials and observational studies. Here, we introduce stratified Cox models and frailty models, as well as the immortal time bias arising from a poor assessment of time-dependent variables. To address the issue of multiplicity of outcomes, we provide several modelling strategies to deal with other types of time-to-event data analyses, such as competing risks, multistate models, and recurrent-event methods. This review is illustrated with examples from previous cardiovascular research publications, and each statistical method is discussed alongside its main strengths and limitations. Finally, we provide some general observations about alternative statistical methods with less restrictive assumptions, such as the win ratio method, the restrictive mean survival time, and accelerated failure time model.

Left ventricular end-diastolic pressure predicts in-hospital outcomes in takotsubo syndrome

AIMS

Takotsubo syndrome (TTS) is associated to serious adverse in-hospital complications. We evaluated the role of invasively assessed left ventricular end-diastolic pressure (LVEDP) for predicting in-hospital complications in TTS patients compared to the most widely used echocardiographic parameters of ventricular function.

METHODS AND RESULTS 

We prospectively enrolled 130 patients (mean age 71.2 ± 11.3 years, 114 [87.7%] female) with TTS. Invasive measurement of LVEDP was performed at the time of cardiac catheterization. The rate of in-hospital complications (composite of acute heart failure, life-threatening arrhythmias and all-cause death) was examined. In-hospital complications occurred in 37 (28.5%) patients. Patients who experienced in-hospital complications had a higher prevalence of neurological trigger and lower prevalence of emotional trigger, higher LVEDP and mean E/e' ratio and lower LV ejection fraction (LVEF) values compared to those who did not experience in-hospital complications. At multivariate logistic regression, higher LVEDP [odds ratio (OR) 1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI) [1.05-1.20], P < 0.001] and lower LVEF (OR 0.95, 95% CI [0.91-0.99], P = 0.011) remained independently predictors of in-hospital complications, while emotional trigger was associated to a lower risk (OR 0.24, 95% CI [0.06-0.96], P = 0.044). The area under the curve (AUC) for LEVDP in the prediction of in-hospital events was 0.776 (95% CI [0.69-0.86], P <0.001, with a sensitivity and specificity of 95% and 58% using a LVEDP cut-off value of 22.5 mmHg). The AUC was significantly higher for LVEDP than for E/e' ratio (P = 0.037).

CONCLUSIONS 

LVEDP measured at the time of catheterization may help in identifying TTS patients at higher risk of cardiovascular deterioration with relevant therapeutic implications.

Assessment of the ESC quality indicators in patients with acute myocardial infarction: a systematic review

AIMS

To help improving quality of care in patients with acute myocardial infarction (AMI), the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) set 20 quality indicators (QIs). There is a need to compile and summarize QI availability, feasibility, and global compliance in real-world registries.

METHODS AND RESULTS

A systematic review of PubMed and Web of Science was conducted including all original articles reporting the use of the ESC QIs in AMI patients. Methods and reporting follow the guidelines of the PRISMA Statement and the protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD42020190541). Among the 220 screened citations, 9 studies met the inclusion criteria after full-text review. Among these 9 studies, there were 11 different cohorts. Patients were recruited from three different continents (31 countries). The number of QIs assessed ranged from 6 to 20, with 5 studies (56%) reporting data for at least 75% of the 20 QIs. There were room for improvement in terms of data availability (i.e. domain 6 measuring patient's satisfaction), feasibility (i.e. difficulties to find all data for composite QIs in domain 7), and attainment (i.e. high levels of compliance with the percentage of reperfused ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction patients, but low levels for a timely reperfusion).

CONCLUSIONS

Our systematic review has shown that it is possible to measure most QIs in existing registries, and that there is room for improvement in terms of data availability, feasibility, and levels of attainment to QIs. Our findings may influence the design of future registries to capture this information and help in QIs definition updates.

Glycated Hemoglobin and Subclinical Atherosclerosis in People Without Diabetes

BACKGROUND

The metabolic injury caused by protein glycation, monitored as the level of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), is not represented in most risk scores (i.e., Systematic Coronary Risk Estimation or atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scale).

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to assess the association between HbA1c and the extent of subclinical atherosclerosis (SA) and to better identify individuals at higher risk of extensive SA using HbA1c on top of key cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs).

METHODS

A cohort of 3,973 middle-aged individuals from the PESA (Progression of Early Subclinical Atherosclerosis) study, with no history of cardiovascular disease and with HbA1c in the nondiabetic range, were assessed for the presence and extent of SA by 2-dimensional vascular ultrasound and noncontrast cardiac computed tomography.

RESULTS

After adjusting for established CVRFs, HbA1c showed an association with the multiterritorial extent of SA (odds ratio: 1.05, 1.27, 1.27, 1.36, 1.80, 1.87, and 2.47 for HbA1c 4.9% to 5.0%, 5.1% to 5.2%, 5.3% to 5.4%, 5.5% to 5.6%, 5.7% to 5.8%, 5.9% to 6.0%, and 6.1% to 6.4%, respectively; reference HbA1c ≤4.8%; p < 0.001). The association was significant in all pre-diabetes groups and even below the pre-diabetes cut-off (HbA1c 5.5% to 5.6% odds ratio: 1.36 [95% confidence interval: 1.03 to 1.80]; p = 0.033). High HbA1c was associated with an increased risk of SA in low-risk individuals (p < 0.001), but not in moderate-risk individuals (p = 0.335). Relative risk estimations using Systematic Coronary Risk Estimation or atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease predictors confirmed that inclusion of HbA1c modified the risk of multiterritorial SA in most risk categories.

CONCLUSIONS

Routine use of HbA1c can identify asymptomatic individuals at higher risk of SA on top of traditional CVRFs. Lifestyle interventions and novel antidiabetic medications might be considered to reduce both HbA1c levels and SA in individuals without diabetes.

Association between early intensive care or coronary care unit admission and post-discharge performance of activities of daily living in patients with acute decompensated heart failure

The management of acute decompensated heart failure often requires intensive care. However, the effects of early intensive care unit/coronary care unit admission on activities of daily living (ADL) in acute decompensated heart failure patients have not been precisely evaluated. Thus, we retrospectively assessed the association between early intensive care unit admission and post-discharge ADL performance in these patients. Acute decompensated heart failure patients (New York Heart Association I–III) admitted on emergency between April 1, 2014, and December 31, 2018, were selected from the Diagnosis Procedure Combination database and divided into intensive care unit/coronary care unit (ICU) and general ward (GW) groups according to the hospitalization type on admission day 1. The propensity score was calculated to create matched cohorts where admission style (intensive care unit/coronary care unit admission) was independent of measured baseline confounding factors, including ADL at admission. The primary outcome was ADL performance level at discharge (post-ADL) defined according to the Barthel index. Secondary outcomes included length of stay and total hospitalization cost (expense). Overall, 12231 patients were eligible, and propensity score matching created 2985 pairs. After matching, post-ADL was significantly higher in the ICU group than in the GW group [mean (standard deviation), GW vs. ICU: 71.5 (35.3) vs. 78.2 (31.2) points, P<0.001; mean difference: 6.7 (95% confidence interval, 5.1–8.4) points]. After matching, length of stay was significantly shorter and expenses were significantly higher in the ICU group than in the GW group. Stratified analysis showed that the patients with low ADL at admission (Barthel index score <60) were the most benefited from early intensive care unit/coronary care unit admission. Thus, early intensive care unit/coronary care unit admission was associated with improved post-ADL in patients with emergency acute decompensated heart failure admission.