Against quantiles: categorization of continuous variables in epidemiologic research, and its discontents

Systemic inflammation, lifestyle behaviours and dementia: A 10-year follow-up investigation

Objectives

Lifestyle behaviours have been linked to dementia incidence, but their cumulative impact on dementia and the underlying mechanisms remain poorly understood. This study investigated the association of co-occurring lifestyle behaviours with dementia incidence and the mediating role of systemic inflammation in this association.

Methods

The sample comprised 3131 participants (55.2% female) from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing aged 52-92 years at baseline (2008/09). Self-reported baseline lifestyle behaviours (alcohol intake, fruit and vegetable consumption, smoking, physical activity, sleep duration, social engagement, and cognitive activity) were summed to derive an index of lifestyle behaviours, ranging from 0 to 7, with higher scores denoting a higher number of health-risk behaviours. Incident dementia cases (n = 130, 4.2%) were identified through doctor-diagnosed dementia, informant interviews, and health records between 2014/15 and 2018/19. Systemic inflammation was measured through fasting plasma concentrations of C-reactive protein in 2012/13.

Results

Binary logistic regression models indicated that the odds of subsequent dementia increased by 1.19 for each additional health-risk behaviour (95% confidence intervals: 1.04, 1.37, p = 0.014) after adjusting for age, sex, ethnicity, wealth, education, marital status, body mass index, coronary heart disease, hypertension, stroke, and depression. However, this association was not mediated by C-reactive protein.

Conclusions

Co-occurring health-risk behaviours were associated with higher dementia incidence up to 10 years later, underscoring the importance of modifying health-risk behaviours for the prevention of dementia. Systemic inflammation did not explain the association between behaviours and dementia.

Coffee consumption is associated with a reduced risk of colorectal cancer recurrence and all-cause mortality

Coffee consumption has been associated with a reduced risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC). However, it is not clear whether coffee consumption is related to CRC progression. Hence, we assessed the association of coffee consumption with CRC recurrence and all-cause mortality using data from a prospective cohort study of 1719 stage I-III CRC patients in the Netherlands. Coffee consumption and other lifestyle characteristics were self-reported using questionnaires at the time of diagnosis. We retrieved recurrence and all-cause mortality data from the Netherlands Cancer Registry and the Personal Records Database, respectively. Cox proportional hazard regression models with and without restricted cubic splines were used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusted for age, sex, education, smoking status, cancer stage and tumor location. We observed 257 recurrences during a 6.2-year median follow-up and 309 deaths during a 6.6-year median follow-up. Consuming more than 4 cups/d of coffee compared to an intake of <2 cups/d was associated with a 32% lower risk of CRC recurrence (95% CI: 0.49, 0.94,). The association between coffee consumption and all-cause mortality was U-shaped; coffee intake seemed optimal at 3-5 cups/d with the lowest risk at 4 cups/d (HR: 0.68, 95% CI: 0.53, 0.88). Our results suggest that coffee consumption may be associated with a lower risk of CRC recurrence and all-cause mortality. The association between coffee consumption and all-cause mortality appeared nonlinear. More studies are needed to understand the mechanism by which coffee consumption might improve CRC prognosis.

Frailty and Duration of Maintenance Dialysis: A Japanese Nationwide Cross-Sectional Study

RATIONALE & OBJECTIVE

Prolonged end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) is a risk factor for frailty and the number of patients in Japan receiving maintenance dialysis for more than 20 years is large and growing. This study aimed to characterize the association of dialysis vintage and frailty among patients receiving dialysis in Japan.

STUDY DESIGN

Cross-sectional study.

SETTING & PARTICIPANTS

Patients with ESKD aged over 50 years of age who received maintenance dialysis in 2018 as represented in the JSDT Renal Data Registry database (n=227,136).

EXPOSURES

Dialysis vintage categorized as: 0-<5 years, 5-<10 years, 10-<20 years, 20-<30 years, and over 30 years.

OUTCOMES

The frailty and bedridden status were defined as graded ≥2 and graded 4, respectively, according to the Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group Performance Status scale.

ANALYTICAL APPROACH

Poisson regression models with robust error variance adjusted for potential covariates were used to estimate the adjusted prevalence ratios (aPRs) for frailty and bedridden status. Clinical characteristics of patients undergoing dialysis for ≥ 30 years were also described.

RESULTS

Among the study cohort, 5510 patients (2.4%) had been undergoing dialysis for 30 years or more. The prevalence of frailty in the group with over 30 years of dialysis history was 36.2%, while the rate of being bedridden was 6.4%. Compared to <5 years, dialysis vintages of 5-<10 years, 10-<20 years, 20-<30 years, and over 30 years were associated with frailty (aPRs [95% confidence intervals]: 1.06 [1.05-1.08], 1.10 [1.08-1.11], 1.14 [1.10-1.17], and 1.67 [1.60-1.73]), respectively. Compared to <5 years, dialysis vintages of 5-<10 years, 10-<20 years, 20-<30 years, and over 30 years were associated with being bedridden (aPRs [95% confidence intervals]: 1.17 [1.13-1.22], 1.26 [1.20-1.31], 1.17 [1.08-1.26], and 1.66 [1.49-1.86], respectively.

LIMITATIONS

Patients receiving short-term dialysis may have more unmeasured comorbidities compared to patients receiving long-term dialysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Long-term dialysis therapy, particularly exceeding 30 years, is associated with deterioration of physical function and frailty.

Adjustment for duration of employment in occupational epidemiology

PURPOSE

In occupational epidemiology, the healthy worker survivor effect can manifest as a time-dependent confounder because healthier workers can accrue greater amounts of exposure over longer periods of employment. For example, in occupational studies of radiation exposure that focus on cumulative annualized radiation dose, workers can accrue greater amounts of cumulative radiation exposure over longer periods of employment, while workers with longer periods of employment can transition into jobs with a reduced potential for annualized radiation exposure. The extent to which confounding arising from the healthy worker survivor effect impacts radiation risk estimates is unknown.

METHODS

We assessed the impact of the healthy worker survivor effect on estimates of radiation risk among nuclear workers in a Million Person Study cohort. In simulation studies, we contrasted the ability of marginal structural Cox models with inverse probability weighting and Cox proportional hazards models to account for time-dependent confounding arising from the healthy worker survivor effect.

RESULTS

Marginal structural Cox models and Cox proportional hazards models with flexible functional forms for duration of employment provided reliable results.

CONCLUSIONS

It is crucial to flexibly adjust for duration of employment to account for confounding arising from the healthy worker survivor effect in occupational epidemiology.

Unraveling the Predictors of Enlarged Perivascular Spaces: A Comprehensive Logistic Regression Approach in Cerebral Small Vessel Disease

Background

This study addresses the predictive modeling of Enlarged Perivascular Spaces (EPVS) in neuroradiology and neurology, focusing on their impact on Cerebral Small Vessel Disease (CSVD) and neurodegenerative disorders.

Methods

A retrospective analysis was conducted on 587 neurology inpatients, utilizing LASSO regression for variable selection and logistic regression for model development. The study included comprehensive demographic, medical history, and laboratory data analyses.

Results

The model identified key predictors of EPVS, including Age, Hypertension, Stroke, Lipoprotein a, Platelet Large Cell Ratio, Uric Acid, and Albumin to Globulin Ratio. The predictive nomogram demonstrated strong efficacy in EPVS risk assessment, validated through ROC curve analysis, calibration plots, and Decision Curve Analysis.

Conclusion

The study presents a novel, robust EPVS predictive model, providing deeper insights into EPVS mechanisms and risk factors. It underscores the potential for early diagnosis and improved management strategies in neuro-radiology and neurology, highlighting the need for future research in diverse populations and longitudinal settings.

Surgically-relevant quality of life thresholds for the Short Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire in Crohn's disease

BACKGROUND

Despite growing interest in patient-reported outcome measures to track the progression of Crohn's disease, frameworks to apply these questionnaires in the preoperative setting are lacking. Using the Short Inflammatory Bowel Disease Questionnaire (sIBDQ), this study aimed to describe the interpretable quality of life thresholds and examine potential associations with future bowel resection in Crohn's disease.

METHODS

Adult patients with Crohn's disease completing an sIBDQ at a clinic visit between 2020 and 2022 were eligible. A stoplight framework was adopted for sIBDQ scores, including a "Resection Red" zone suggesting poor quality of life that may benefit from discussions about surgery as well as a "Nonoperative Green" zone. Thresholds were identified with both anchor- and distribution-based methods using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis and subgroup percentile scores, respectively. To quantify associations between sIBDQ scores and subsequent bowel resection, multivariable logistic regression models were fit with covariates of age, sex assigned at birth, body mass index, medications, disease pattern and location, resection history, and the Harvey Bradshaw Index. The incremental discriminatory value of the sIBDQ beyond clinical factors was assessed through the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) with an internal validation through bootstrap resampling.

RESULTS

Of the 2003 included patients, 102 underwent Crohn's-related bowel resection. The sIBDQ Nonoperative Green zone threshold ranged from 61 to 64 and the Resection Red zone from 36 to 38. When adjusting for clinical covariates, a worse sIBDQ score was associated with greater odds of subsequent 90-day bowel resection when considered as a 1-point (odds ratio [OR] [95% CI], 1.05 [1.03-1.07]) or 5-point change (OR [95% CI], 1.27 [1.14-1.41]). Inclusion of the sIBDQ modestly improved discriminative performance (AUC [95% CI], 0.85 [0.85-0.86]) relative to models that included only demographics (0.57 [0.57-0.58]) or demographics with clinical covariates (0.83 [0.83-0.84]).

CONCLUSION

In the decision-making process for bowel resection, disease-specific patient-reported outcome measures may be useful to identify patients with Crohn's disease with poor quality of life and promote a shared understanding of personalized burden.

Donor Blood Tests do Not Predict Pancreas Graft Survival After Simultaneous Pancreas Kidney Transplantation; a National Cohort Study

Simultaneous pancreas-kidney (SPK) transplantation improves quality of life and limits progression of diabetic complications. There is reluctance to accept pancreata from donors with abnormal blood tests, due to concern of inferior outcomes. We investigated whether donor amylase and liver blood tests (markers of visceral ischaemic injury) predict pancreas graft outcome using the UK Transplant Registry (2016-2021). 857 SPK recipients were included (619 following brainstem death, 238 following circulatory death). Peak donor amylase ranged from 8 to 3300 U/L (median = 70), and this had no impact on pancreas graft survival when adjusting for multiple confounders (aHR = 0.944, 95% CI = 0.754-1.81). Peak alanine transaminases also did not influence pancreas graft survival in multivariable models (aHR = 0.967, 95% CI = 0.848-1.102). Restricted cubic splines were used to assess associations between donor blood tests and pancreas graft survival without assuming linear relationships; these confirmed neither amylase, nor transaminases, significantly impact pancreas transplant outcome. This is the largest, most statistically robust study evaluating donor blood tests and transplant outcome. Provided other factors are acceptable, pancreata from donors with mild or moderately raised amylase and transaminases can be accepted with confidence. The use of pancreas grafts from such donors is therefore a safe, immediate, and simple approach to expand the donor pool to reach increasing demands.

Patterns of perinatal polyunsaturated fatty acid status and associated dietary or candidate-genetic factors

Perinatal exposure to omega-3 and omega-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) can be characterized through biomarkers in maternal or cord blood or breast milk. Objectives were to describe perinatal PUFA status combining multiple biofluids and to investigate how it was influenced by dietary intake during pregnancy and maternal FADS and ELOVL gene polymorphisms. This study involved 1,901 mother-child pairs from the EDEN cohort, with PUFA levels measured in maternal and cord erythrocytes, and colostrum. Maternal dietary PUFA intake during the last trimester was derived from a food frequency questionnaire. Twelve single-nucleotide polymorphisms in FADS and ELOVL genes were genotyped from maternal DNA. Principal component analysis incorporating PUFA levels from the three biofluids identified patterns of perinatal PUFA status. Spearman's correlations explored associations between patterns and PUFA dietary intake, and linear regression models examined pattern associations with FADS or ELOVL haplotypes. Five patterns were retained: "High omega-3 LC-PUFAs, low omega-6 LC-PUFAs"; "Omega-6 LC-PUFAs"; "Colostrum LC-PUFAs"; "Omega-6 precursor (LA) and DGLA"; "Omega-6 precursor and colostrum ALA". Maternal omega-3 LC-PUFA intakes were correlated with "High omega-3 LC-PUFAs, low omega-6 LC-PUFAs" (r(DHA) = 0.33) and "Omega-6 LC-PUFAs" (r(DHA) = -0.19) patterns. Strong associations were found between FADS haplotypes and PUFA patterns except for "High omega-3 LC-PUFAs, low omega-6 LC-PUFAs". Lack of genetic association with the "High omega-3 LC-PUFAs, low omega-6 LC-PUFAs" pattern, highly correlated with maternal omega-3 LC-PUFA intake, emphasizes the importance of adequate omega-3 LC-PUFA intake during pregnancy and lactation. This study offers a more comprehensive assessment of perinatal PUFA status and its determinants.

Diet quality and anxiety: a critical overview with focus on the gut microbiome

Anxiety disorders disproportionally affect females and are frequently comorbid with eating disorders. With the emerging field of nutritional psychiatry, focus has been put on the impact of diet quality in anxiety pathophysiology and gut microbiome underlying mechanisms. While the relationship between diet and anxiety is bidirectional, improving dietary habits could better facilitate the actions of pharmacological and psychological therapies, or prevent their use. A better understanding of how gut bacteria mediate and moderate such relationship could further contribute to develop personalized programs and inform probiotics and prebiotics manufacturing. To date, studies that look simultaneously at diet, the gut microbiome, and anxiety are missing as only pairwise relationships among them have been investigated. Therefore, this study aims at summarizing and integrating the existing knowledge on the dietary effects on anxiety with focus on gut microbiome. Findings on the effects of diet on anxiety are critically summarized and reinterpreted in relation to findings on (i) the effects of diet on the gut microbiome composition, and (ii) the associations between the abundance of certain gut bacteria and anxiety. This novel interpretation suggests a theoretical model where the relationship between diet and anxiety is mediated and/or modulated by the gut microbiome through multiple mechanisms. In parallel, this study critically evaluates methodologies employed in the nutritional field to investigate the effects of diet on anxiety highlighting a lack of systematic operationalization and assessment strategies. Therefore, it ultimately proposes a novel evidence-based approach that can enhance studies validity, reliability, systematicity, and translation to clinical and community settings.

The Relationship Between Apathy and Cognitive Impairment Among Hispanic/Latin Americans: A Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Systematic Review

OBJECTIVES

The primary aim was to evaluate apathy assessment measures in relation to cognitive impairment among Hispanic/Latin Americans.

METHODS

A systematic review on the relationship between apathy and cognitive impairment among Hispanic/Latin Americans across normal aging and neurocognitive disorders was conducted according to preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines and using APA PsycInfo, Embase, and PubMed databases. Inclusion criteria required (1) a sample of English or Spanish-speaking adults ages 18 years and older, (2) with measures of apathy, (3) assessment of cognitive functioning or diagnosis of neurocognitive disorder, (4) with at least 18.5% Hispanic/Latin American represented in the sample.

RESULTS

Only 14 papers met criteria to be included in this review. Of the 12 cross-sectional studies, 9 demonstrated significant associations between increased apathy and cognitive impairment, 1 demonstrated a descriptive difference between apathy and cognitive status (ie, no hypothesis test conducted), while 2 demonstrated null effects. These cross-sectional studies consisted of community and clinic samples of participants across North and South America. Two longitudinal studies conducted in North America demonstrated non-significant associations of apathy with cognitive status.

CONCLUSIONS

The Neuropsychiatric Inventory (NPI) and Neuropsychiatric Inventory Questionnaire (NPI-Q) apathy subscales were the most used measures for apathy in this review (85.7% of included studies). However, validity evidence from a review of apathy measures has warranted caution against the use of the NPI outside the context of screening for apathy. This potential measurement bias with Hispanic/Latin Americans apathy research limits conclusions drawn from the present review.

Lipoprotein Insulin Resistance Score and Mortality Risk Stratification in Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Higher total serum cholesterol is associated with lower mortality in heart failure. Evaluating associations between lipoprotein subfractions and mortality among people with heart failure may provide insights into this observation.

METHODS

We prospectively enrolled a community cohort of people with heart failure from 2003 to 2012 and assessed vital status through 2021. Plasma collected at enrollment was used to measure lipoprotein subfractions via nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. A composite score of 6 lipoprotein subfractions was generated using the lipoprotein insulin resistance index (LP-IR) algorithm. Using covariate-adjusted proportional hazards regression models, we evaluated associations between LP-IR score and all-cause mortality.

RESULTS

Among 1382 patients with heart failure (median follow-up 13.9 years), a one-standard-deviation (SD) increment in LP-IR score was associated with lower mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.93; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97-0.99). Among LP-IR parameters, mean high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particle size was significantly associated with lower mortality (HR per 1-SD decrement in mean HDL particle size = 0.83; 95% CI, 0.78-0.89), suggesting that the inverse association between LP-IR score and mortality may be driven by smaller mean HDL particle size.

CONCLUSIONS

LP-IR score was inversely associated with mortality among patients with heart failure and may be driven by smaller HDL particle size.

Optimizing early neurological deterioration prediction in acute ischemic stroke patients following intravenous thrombolysis: a LASSO regression model approach

Background

Acute ischemic stroke (AIS) remains a leading cause of disability and mortality globally among adults. Despite Intravenous Thrombolysis (IVT) with recombinant tissue plasminogen activator (rt-PA) emerging as the standard treatment for AIS, approximately 6-40% of patients undergoing IVT experience Early Neurological Deterioration (END), significantly impacting treatment efficacy and patient prognosis.

Objective

This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for END in AIS patients post rt-PA administration using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression approach.

Methods

In this retrospective cohort study, data from 531 AIS patients treated with intravenous alteplase across two hospitals were analyzed. LASSO regression was employed to identify significant predictors of END, leading to the construction of a multivariate predictive model.

Results

Six key predictors significantly associated with END were identified through LASSO regression analysis: previous stroke history, Body Mass Index (BMI), age, Onset to Treatment Time (OTT), lymphocyte count, and glucose levels. A predictive nomogram incorporating these factors was developed, effectively estimating the probability of END post-IVT. The model demonstrated robust predictive performance, with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.867 in the training set and 0.880 in the validation set.

Conclusion

The LASSO regression-based predictive model accurately identifies critical risk factors leading to END in AIS patients following IVT. This model facilitates timely identification of high-risk patients by clinicians, enabling more personalized treatment strategies and optimizing patient management and outcomes.

Evaluating the Clinical Utility of Epstein-Barr Virus Antibodies as Biomarkers in Multiple Sclerosis: A Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

EBV is a necessary but not sufficient factor in the pathophysiology of multiple sclerosis (MS). EBV antibodies to the nuclear antigen (EBNA1) and viral capsid antigen (VCA) rise rapidly prior to MS disease manifestations, and their absence has clinical utility with a high negative predictive value. It remains unclear whether EBV levels act as prognostic, monitoring, or pharmacodynamic/response biomarkers. Substantial literature on this topic exists but has not been systematically reviewed. We hypothesized that EBV levels against EBNA1 and VCA are potential prognostic and monitoring biomarkers in MS, and that patient population, MS clinical phenotype, and EBV assay method may play important roles in explaining variation among study outcomes.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed and EMBASE from inception to April 1, 2022. After removal of duplicates, records were screened by abstract. Remaining full-text articles were reviewed. Clinical and MRI data were extracted from full-text articles for comparison and synthesis.

RESULTS

Searches yielded 696 unique results; 285 were reviewed in full, and 36 met criteria for data extraction. Heterogeneity in sample population, clinical outcome measures, assay methods and statistical analyses precluded a meta-analysis. EBV levels were not consistently associated with clinical disease markers including conversion from CIS to RRMS, neurological disability, or disease phenotype. Studies using repeated-measures design suggest that EBNA1 levels may temporarily reflect inflammatory disease activity as assessed by gadolinium-enhancing Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) lesions. Limited data also suggest a decrease in EBV levels following initiation of certain disease-modifying therapies.

CONCLUSION

Heterogeneous methodology limited generalization and meta-analysis. EBV antibody levels are unlikely to represent prognostic biomarkers in MS. The areas of highest ongoing promise relate to diagnostic exclusion and pharmacodynamic/disease response. Use of EBV antibodies as biomarkers in clinical practice remains additionally limited by lack of methodological precision, reliability, and validation.

Stromal Signals Dominate Gene Expression Signature Scores That Aim to Describe Cancer Cell-intrinsic Stemness or Mesenchymality Characteristics

Epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT) in cancer cells confers migratory abilities, a crucial aspect in the metastasis of tumors that frequently leads to death. In multiple studies, authors proposed gene expression signatures for EMT, stemness, or mesenchymality of tumors based on bulk tumor expression profiling. However, recent studies suggested that noncancerous cells from the microenvironment or macroenvironment heavily influence such signature profiles. Here, we strengthen these findings by investigating 11 published and frequently referenced gene expression signatures that were proposed to describe EMT-related (EMT, mesenchymal, or stemness) characteristics in various cancer types. By analyses of bulk, single-cell, and pseudobulk expression data, we show that the cell type composition of a tumor sample frequently dominates scores of these EMT-related signatures. A comprehensive, integrated analysis of bulk RNA sequencing (RNA-seq) and single-cell RNA-seq data shows that stromal cells, most often fibroblasts, are the main drivers of EMT-related signature scores. We call attention to the risk of false conclusions about tumor properties when interpreting EMT-related signatures, especially in a clinical setting: high patient scores of EMT-related signatures or calls of "stemness subtypes" often result from low cancer cell content in tumor biopsies rather than cancer cell-specific stemness or mesenchymal/EMT characteristics.

SIGNIFICANCE

Cancer self-renewal and migratory abilities are often characterized via gene module expression profiles, also called EMT or stemness gene expression signatures. Using published clinical tumor samples, cancer cell lines, and single cancer cells, we highlight the dominating influence of noncancer cells in low cancer cell content biopsies on their scores. We caution on their application for low cancer cell content clinical cancer samples with the intent to assign such characteristics or subtypes.

The Metabolic Vulnerability Index: A Novel Marker for Mortality Prediction in Heart Failure

BACKGROUND

Inflammation and protein energy malnutrition are associated with heart failure (HF) mortality. The metabolic vulnerability index (MVX) is derived from markers of inflammation and malnutrition and measured by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. MVX has not been examined in HF.

OBJECTIVES

The authors sought to examine the prognostic value of MVX in patients with HF.

METHODS

The authors prospectively assembled a population-based cohort of patients with HF from 2003 to 2012 and measured MVX scores with a nuclear magnetic resonance scan from plasma collected at enrollment. Patients were divided into 4 MVX score groups and followed until March 31, 2021.

RESULTS

The authors studied 1,382 patients (median age: 78 years; 48% women). The median MVX score was 64.6. Patients with higher MVX were older, more likely to be male, have atrial fibrillation, have higher NYHA functional class, and have HF duration of >18 months. Higher MVX was associated with mortality independent of Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure score, ejection fraction, and other prognostic biomarkers. Compared to those with the lowest MVX, the HRs for MVX groups 2, 3, and 4 were 1.2 (95% CI: 0.9-1.4), 1.6 (95% CI: 1.3-2.0), and 1.8 (95% CI: 1.4-2.2), respectively (Ptrend < 0.001). Measures of model improvement document the added value of MVX in HF for classifying the risk of death beyond the Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure score and other biomarkers.

CONCLUSIONS

In this HF community cohort, MVX was strongly associated with mortality independently of established clinical factors and improved mortality risk classification beyond clinically validated markers. These data underscore the potential of MVX to stratify risk in HF.

The association between water intake and future cardiometabolic disease outcomes in the Malmö Diet and Cancer cardiovascular cohort

The aim of this study was to explore the longitudinal association between reported baseline water intake and incidence of coronary artery disease (CAD) and type 2 diabetes in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Cohort (n = 25,369). Using cox proportional hazards models, we separately modelled the effect of plain and total (all water, including from food) water on CAD and type 2 diabetes risk, whilst adjusting for age, sex, diet collection method, season, smoking status, alcohol intake, physical activity, education level, energy intake, energy misreporting, body mass index, hypertension, lipid lowering medication, apolipoprotein A, apolipoprotein B, and dietary variables. Sensitivity analyses were run to assess validity. After adjustment, no association was found between tertiles of plain or total water intake and type 2 diabetes risk. For CAD, no association was found comparing moderate to low intake tertiles from plain or total water, however, risk of CAD increased by 12% (95% CI 1.03, 1.21) when comparing high to low intake tertiles of plain water, and by 17% (95% CI 1.07, 1.27) for high versus low tertiles of total water. Sensitivity analyses were largely in agreement. Overall, baseline water intake was not associated with future type 2 diabetes risk, whilst CAD risk was higher with higher water intakes. Our findings are discordant with prevailing literature suggesting higher water intakes should reduce cardiometabolic risk. These findings may be an artefact of limitations within the study, but future research is needed to understand if there is a causal underpinning.

Longitudinal analysis of the Alternative Healthy Eating Index-2010 and incident non-communicable diseases over 15 years in the 1973-1978 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health

In studies that contain repeated measures of variables, longitudinal analysis accounting for time-varying covariates is one of the options. We aimed to explore longitudinal association between diet quality (DQ) and non-communicable diseases (NCDs). Participants from the 1973-1978 cohort of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health (ALSWH) were included, if they; responded to survey 3 (S3, 2003, aged 25-30 years) and at least one survey between survey 4 (S4, 2006) and survey 8 (S8, 2018), were free of NCDs at or before S3, and provided dietary data at S3 or S5. Outcomes were coronary heart disease (CHD), hypertension (HT), asthma, cancer (except skin cancer), diabetes mellitus (DM), depression and/or anxiety, and multimorbidity (MM). Longitudinal modelling using generalised estimation equation (GEE) approach with time-invariant (S4), time-varying (S4-S8) and lagged (S3-S7) covariates were performed. The mean (± standard deviation) of Alternative Healthy Eating Index-2010 (AHEI-2010) of participants (n = 8022) was 51·6 ± 11·0 (range: 19-91). Compared to women with the lowest DQ (AHEI-2010 quintile 1), those in quintile 5 had reduced odds of NCDs in time-invariant model (asthma: OR (95 % CI): 0·77 (0·62-0·96), time-varying model (HT: 0·71 (0·50-0·99); asthma: 0·62 (0·51-0·76); and MM: 0·75 (0·58-0·97) and lagged model (HT: 0·67 (0·49-0·91); and asthma: 0·70 (0·57-0·85). Temporal associations between diet and some NCDs were more prominent in lagged GEE analyses. Evidence of diet as NCD prevention in women aged 25-45 years is evolving, and more studies that consider different longitudinal analyses are needed.

Development and validation of a nomogram predictive model for cerebral small vessel disease: a comprehensive retrospective analysis

Background

Cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD) is a significant contributor to stroke, intracerebral hemorrhages, and vascular dementia, particularly in the elderly. Early diagnosis remains challenging. This study aimed to develop and validate a novel nomogram for the early diagnosis of cerebral small vessel disease (CSVD). We focused on integrating cerebrovascular risk factors and blood biochemical markers to identify individuals at high risk of CSVD, thus enabling early intervention.

Methods

In a retrospective study conducted at the neurology department of the Affiliated Hospital of Hebei University from January 2020 to June 2022, 587 patients were enrolled. The patients were randomly divided into a training set (70%, n = 412) and a validation set (30%, n = 175). The nomogram was developed using multivariable logistic regression analysis, with variables selected through the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) technique. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated based on the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Out of 88 analyzed biomarkers, 32 showed significant differences between the CSVD and non-CSVD groups. The LASSO regression identified 12 significant indicators, with nine being independent clinical predictors of CSVD. The AUC-ROC values of the nomogram were 0.849 (95% CI: 0.821-0.894) in the training set and 0.863 (95% CI: 0.810-0.917) in the validation set, indicating excellent discriminative ability. Calibration plots demonstrated good agreement between predicted and observed probabilities in both sets. DCA showed that the nomogram had significant clinical utility.

Conclusions

The study successfully developed a nomogram predictive model for CSVD, incorporating nine clinical predictive factors. This model offers a valuable tool for early identification and risk assessment of CSVD, potentially enhancing clinical decision-making and patient outcomes.

Peer review of clinical and translational research manuscripts: Perspectives from statistical collaborators

Research articles in the clinical and translational science literature commonly use quantitative data to inform evaluation of interventions, learn about the etiology of disease, or develop methods for diagnostic testing or risk prediction of future events. The peer review process must evaluate the methodology used therein, including use of quantitative statistical methods. In this manuscript, we provide guidance for peer reviewers tasked with assessing quantitative methodology, intended to complement guidelines and recommendations that exist for manuscript authors. We describe components of clinical and translational science research manuscripts that require assessment including study design and hypothesis evaluation, sampling and data acquisition, interventions (for studies that include an intervention), measurement of data, statistical analysis methods, presentation of the study results, and interpretation of the study results. For each component, we describe what reviewers should look for and assess; how reviewers should provide helpful comments for fixable errors or omissions; and how reviewers should communicate uncorrectable and irreparable errors. We then discuss the critical concepts of transparency and acceptance/revision guidelines when communicating with responsible journal editors.

Prognostic value of aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase ratio in hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy

BACKGROUND

The prognostic significance of the aspartate aminotransferase/alanine aminotransferase (AST/ALT) ratio in hepatocellular carcinoma remains uncertain. The aim of the current study was to evaluate the association between the AST/ALT ratio and prognosis in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy, and to explore the role of underlying liver diseases as mediators.

METHODS

This retrospective study included patients with hepatocellular carcinoma who underwent hepatectomy between January 2014 and January 2018 at two Chinese hospitals. The maximally selected rank statistic and g-computation approach were used to quantify and visualize the association between the AST/ALT ratio and overall survival or recurrence-free survival. The role of mediators (chronic hepatitis B, hepatic steatosis and liver cirrhosis) was analysed.

RESULTS

Among the 1519 patients (mean(s.d.) age at baseline, 50.5(11.3) years), 1309 (86.2%) were male. During a median follow-up of 46.0 months, 514 (33.8%) patients died and 358 (23.6%) patients experienced recurrence. The optimal cut-off value for the AST/ALT ratio was 1.4, and the AST/ALT ratio greater than or equal to 1.4 was independently associated with a 39.0% increased risk of death and a 30.0% increased risk of recurrence (overall survival: hazard ratio (HR), 1.39; 95% c.i. 1.15 to 1.68; recurrence-free survival: HR, 1.30; 95% c.i. 1.12 to 1.52) after adjusting for confounders. Chronic hepatitis B significantly mediated the association of the ratio of AST/ALT with both overall survival and recurrence-free survival (20.3% for overall survival; 20.1% for recurrence-free survival).

CONCLUSION

The AST/ALT ratio greater than or equal to 1.4 was associated with shorter overall survival and recurrence-free survival in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy, and chronic hepatitis B may play a role in their association.

Dietary Patterns and Health: Insights From NESR Systematic Reviews to Inform the Dietary Guidelines for Americans

This perspective article shares unique insights from the extensive experience of the US Department of Agriculture Nutrition Evidence Systematic Review branch in conducting systematic reviews on dietary patterns and health outcomes to inform the Dietary Guidelines for Americans. Methodological approaches for reviewing dietary patterns research are described, including approaches to operationalizing definitions and analyzing labeled dietary patterns. The review also describes techniques for synthesizing dietary patterns research across life stages in systematic reviews that inform food-based, federal dietary guidance. Current research activities and recommendations for how to improve or address gaps in dietary patterns research in the future are also discussed.

Lack of incremental value of three-dimensional measurement in assessing invasiveness for lung cancer

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to evaluate the performance of consolidation-to-tumour ratio (CTR) and the radiomic models in two- and three-dimensional modalities for assessing radiological invasiveness in early-stage lung adenocarcinoma.

METHODS

A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients with early-stage lung adenocarcinoma from Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital and Shenzhen People's Hospital. Manual delineation of pulmonary nodules along the boundary was performed on cross-sectional images to extract radiomic features. Clinicopathological characteristics and radiomic signatures were identified in both cohorts. CTR and radiomic score for every patient were calculated. The performance of CTR and radiomic models were tested and validated in the respective cohorts.

RESULTS

A total of 818 patients from Guangdong Provincial People's Hospital were included in the primary cohort, while 474 patients from Shenzhen People's Hospital constituted an independent validation cohort. Both CTR and radiomic score were identified as independent factors for predicting pathological invasiveness. CTR in two- and three-dimensional modalities exhibited comparable results with areas under the receiver operating characteristic curves and were demonstrated in the validation cohort (area under the curve: 0.807 vs 0.826, P = 0.059) Furthermore, both CTR in two- and three-dimensional modalities was able to stratify patients with significant relapse-free survival (P < 0.000 vs P < 0.000) and overall survival (P = 0.003 vs P = 0.001). The radiomic models in two- and three-dimensional modalities demonstrated favourable discrimination and calibration in independent cohorts (P = 0.189).

CONCLUSIONS

Three-dimensional measurement provides no additional clinical benefit compared to two-dimensional.

Donor Liver Blood Tests and Liver Transplant Outcomes: UK Registry Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Safely increasing organ utilization is a global priority. Donor serum transaminase levels are often used to decline livers, despite minimal evidence to support such decisions. This study aimed to investigate the impact of donor "liver blood tests" on transplant outcomes.

METHODS

This retrospective cohort study used the National Health Service registry on adult liver transplantation (2016-2019); adjusted regressions models were used to assess the effect of donor "liver blood tests" on outcomes.

RESULTS

A total of 3299 adult liver transplant recipients were included (2530 following brain stem death, 769 following circulatory death). Peak alanine transaminase (ALT) ranged from 6 to 5927 U/L (median = 45). Donor cause of death significantly predicted donor ALT; 4.2-fold increase in peak ALT with hypoxic brain injury versus intracranial hemorrhage (adjusted P  < 0.001). On multivariable analysis, adjusting for a wide range of factors, transaminase level (ALT or aspartate aminotransferase) failed to predict graft survival, primary nonfunction, 90-d graft loss, or mortality. This held true in all examined subgroups, that is, steatotic grafts, donation following circulatory death, hypoxic brain injury donors, and donors, in which ALT was still rising at the time of retrieval. Even grafts from donors with extremely deranged ALT (>1000 U/L) displayed excellent posttransplant outcomes. In contrast, donor peak alkaline phosphatase was a significant predictor of graft loss (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.808; 1.016-3.216; P  = 0.044).

CONCLUSIONS

Donor transaminases do not predict posttransplant outcomes. When other factors are favorable, livers from donors with raised transaminases can be accepted and transplanted with confidence. Such knowledge should improve organ utilization decision-making and prevent future unnecessary organ discard. This provides a safe, simple, and immediate option to expand the donor pool.

Prediction models in prehospital and emergency medicine research: How to derive and internally validate a clinical prediction model

Clinical prediction models are created to help clinicians with medical decision making, aid in risk stratification, and improve diagnosis and/or prognosis. With growing availability of both prehospital and in-hospital observational registries and electronic health records, there is an opportunity to develop, validate, and incorporate prediction models into clinical practice. However, many prediction models have high risk of bias due to poor methodology. Given that there are no methodological standards aimed at developing prediction models specifically in the prehospital setting, the objective of this paper is to describe the appropriate methodology for the derivation and validation of clinical prediction models in this setting. What follows can also be applied to the emergency medicine (EM) setting. There are eight steps that should be followed when developing and internally validating a prediction model: (1) problem definition, (2) coding of predictors, (3) addressing missing data, (4) ensuring adequate sample size, (5) variable selection, (6) evaluating model performance, (7) internal validation, and (8) model presentation. Subsequent steps include external validation, assessment of impact, and cost-effectiveness. By following these steps, researchers can develop a prediction model with the methodological rigor and quality required for prehospital and EM research.

Exploratory analyses on the effect of time since last meal on concentrations of amino acids, lipids, one-carbon metabolites, and vitamins in the Hordaland Health Study

PURPOSE

Dietary intake may have pronounced effects on circulating biomarker concentrations. Therefore, the aim was to provide a descriptive overview of serum metabolite concentrations in relation to time since last meal, focusing on amino acids, lipids, one-carbon metabolites, and biomarkers of vitamin status.

METHODS

We used baseline data from the observational community-based Hordaland Health Study, including 2960 participants aged 46-49 years and 2874 participants aged 70-74 years. A single blood draw was taken from each participant, and time since last meal varied. Estimated marginal geometric mean metabolite concentrations were plotted as a function of time since last meal, up to 7 h, adjusted for age, sex, and BMI.

RESULTS

We observed a common pattern for nearly all amino acids and one-carbon metabolites with highest concentrations during the first 3 h after dietary intake. Homocysteine and cysteine were lowest the 1st hour after a meal, while no patterns were observed for glutamate and glutamic acid. The concentrations of phylloquinone and triglycerides were highest 1 h after dietary intake. Thiamine and thiamine monophosphate concentrations were highest, while flavin mononucleotide concentrations were lowest within the first 2 h after a meal. No clear patterns emerged for the other fat-soluble vitamins, blood lipids, or B-vitamin biomarkers.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that distinguishing between "fasting" and "non-fasting" blood samples may be inadequate, and a more granular approach is warranted. This may have implications for how to account for dietary intake when blood sampling in both clinical and research settings.

Neighborhood-level Residential Isolation and Neighborhood Composition: Similar but Different

Residential segregation has been considered as a potential cause of racial and/or ethnic disparities in health. Among the five dimensions of residential segregation, the isolation dimension has been conceived to play an essential role in disproportionately shaping the health of racial and ethnic minorities, particularly in urban or metropolitan areas. However, a noticeable amount of research studies has been using informal measures of neighborhood composition (i.e., proportions or percentages), which do not capture any of the five dimensions of residential segregation. Since the inappropriateness of measurement may obstruct a meaningful interpretation and an effective dissemination of research findings, a combination of graphical and non-graphical techniques was used to demonstrate the similarities and differences between formal measures of neighborhood-level residential isolation and informal measures of neighborhood composition. These were intended to provide intuitive and mutual understandings across academic disciples (e.g., city or urban planning, geography, public health, and sociology) and practitioners or professionals in multiple fields (e.g., community development workers, health service providers, policymakers, and social workers). Conceptual and methodological explanations with analytical discussions are also provided to differentiate and/or distinguish the two types of measures. While the concepts, methodologies, and research implications discussed herein are most relevant for research studies in urban or metropolitan areas of the United States, the general framework is also applicable to those of other industrialized counties.

Both short and long sleep durations are associated with type 2 diabetes, independent from traditional lifestyle risk factors-The Maastricht Study

OBJECTIVES

This study examined the cross-sectional association between sleep duration, prediabetes, and type 2 diabetes, and its independence from the traditional lifestyle risk factors diet, physical activity, smoking behavior, and alcohol consumption.

METHODS

Cross-sectional data from 5561 people aged 40-75 years recruited into The Maastricht Study between 2010 and 2018 were used (1:1 female:male and mean age: 60.1 years [standard deviation: 8.6]). Sleep duration was operationalized as in-bed time, algorithmically derived from activPAL3 accelerometer data (median 7 nights, IQR 1). Glucose metabolism status was determined with an oral glucose tolerance test. Multinomial logistic regression was used to assess the association of sleep duration as restricted cubic spline with prediabetes and type 2 diabetes. We adjusted for sex, age, educational level, the use of sleep medication or antidepressants, and the following lifestyle risk factors: diet quality, physical activity, smoking behavior, and alcohol consumption.

RESULTS

A U-shaped association between sleep duration and type 2 diabetes was found. Compared to those with a sleep duration of 8 hours, participants with a sleep duration of 5 and 12 hours had higher odds of type 2 diabetes (OR: 2.9 [95% CI 1.9 to 4.4] and OR 3.2 [2.0 to 5.2], respectively). This association remained after further adjustment for the lifestyle risk factors (OR: 2.6 [1.7 to 4.1] and OR 1.8 [1.1 to 3.1]). No such association was observed between sleep duration and prediabetes.

CONCLUSIONS

Both short and long sleep durations are associated positively and independently of lifestyle and cardiovascular risk factors with type 2 diabetes, but not with prediabetes.

Gaps in Cystic Fibrosis Care Are Associated with Reduced Lung Function in the U.S. Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry

Rationale: Cystic fibrosis (CF) is a genetic disease leading to progressive lung function loss and early mortality. Many clinical and demographic variables are associated with lung function decline, but little is known about the effects of prolonged periods of missed care. Objectives: To determine if missed care in the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation Patient Registry (CFFPR) is associated with decreased lung function at follow-up visits. Methods: Deidentified CFFPR data for 2004-2016 were analyzed, with the exposure of interest being ⩾12-month gap in CFFPR data. We modeled percentage predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second using longitudinal semiparametric modeling with natural cubic splines for age (knots at quantiles) and with subject-specific random effects, adjusted for sex and CFTR (cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator) genotype, race, and ethnicity and included time-varying covariates for gaps in care, insurance type, underweight body mass index, CF-related diabetes status, and chronic infections. Results: A total of 24,328 individuals with 1,082,899 encounters in the CFFPR met inclusion criteria. In the cohort, 8,413 (35%) individuals had at least a single ⩾12-month episode of discontinuity, whereas 15,915 (65%) had continuous care. Of the encounters preceded by a 12-month gap, 75.8% occurred in patients 18 years and older. Compared with those with continuous care, those with a discontinuous care episode had a lower follow-up percentage predicted forced expiratory volume in 1 second at the index visit (-0.81%; 95% confidence interval, -1.00, -0.61) after adjustment for other variables. The magnitude of this difference was much greater (-2.1%; 95% confidence interval, -1.5, -2.7) in young adult F508del homozygotes. Conclusions: There was a high rate of ⩾12-month gap in care, especially in adults, documented in the CFFPR. Discontinuous care identified in the CFFPR was strongly associated with decreased lung function, especially in adolescents and young adults homozygous for the F508del CFTR mutation. This may have implications for identifying and treating people with lengthy gaps in care and may have implications for CFF care recommendations.

Visualizing the (Causal) Effect of a Continuous Variable on a Time-To-Event Outcome

Visualization is a key aspect of communicating the results of any study aiming to estimate causal effects. In studies with time-to-event outcomes, the most popular visualization approach is depicting survival curves stratified by the variable of interest. This approach cannot be used when the variable of interest is continuous. Simple workarounds, such as categorizing the continuous covariate and plotting survival curves for each category, can result in misleading depictions of the main effects. Instead, we propose a new graphic, the survival area plot, to directly depict the survival probability over time and as a function of a continuous covariate simultaneously. This plot utilizes g-computation based on a suitable time-to-event model to obtain the relevant estimates. Through the use of g-computation, those estimates can be adjusted for confounding without additional effort, allowing a causal interpretation under the standard causal identifiability assumptions. If those assumptions are not met, the proposed plot may still be used to depict noncausal associations. We illustrate and compare the proposed graphics to simpler alternatives using data from a large German observational study investigating the effect of the Ankle-Brachial Index on survival. To facilitate the usage of these plots, we additionally developed the contsurvplot R-package, which includes all methods discussed in this paper.

Obesity and renal cell carcinoma: Biological mechanisms and perspectives

Obesity, defined by body mass index (BMI), is an established risk factor for specific renal cell carcinoma (RCC) subtypes such as clear cell RCC, the most common RCC histology. Many studies have identified an association between obesity and improved survival after diagnosis of RCC, a potential "obesity paradox." Clinically, there is uncertainty whether improved outcomes observed after diagnosis are driven by stage, type of treatment received, or artifacts of longitudinal changes in weight and body composition. The biological mechanisms underlying obesity's influence on RCC are not fully established, but multiomic and mechanistic studies suggest an impact on tumor metabolism, particularly fatty acid metabolism, angiogenesis, and peritumoral inflammation, which are known to be key biological hallmarks of clear cell RCC. Conversely, high-intensity exercise associated with increased muscle mass may be a risk factor for renal medullary carcinoma, a rare RCC subtype that predominantly occurs in individuals with sickle hemoglobinopathies. Herein, we highlight methodologic challenges associated with studying the influence of obesity on RCC and review the clinical evidence and potential underlying mechanisms associating RCC with BMI and body composition.

An integrative analytical framework to identify healthy, impactful, and equitable foods: a case study on 100% orange juice

To identify healthy, impactful, and equitable foods, we combined health scores from six diverse nutrient profiling systems (NPS) into a meta-framework (meta-NPS) and paired this with dietary guideline adherence assessment via multilevel regression and poststratification. In a case-study format, a commonly debated beverage formulation - 100% orange juice (OJ) - was chosen to showcase the utility and depth of our framework, systematically scoring high across multiple food systems (i.e. a Meta-Score percentile = 93rd and Stability percentile = 75th) and leading to an expected increase of US dietary fruit guideline adherence by ∼10%. Moreover, the increased adherence varies across the 300 sociodemographic strata, with the benefit patterns being sensitive to absolute or relative quantification of the difference of adherence affected by OJ. In sum, the adaptable, integrative framework we established deepens the science of nutrient profiling and dietary guideline adherence assessment while shedding light on the nuances of defining equitable health effects.

The association between prenatal psychosocial factors and autism spectrum disorder in offspring at 3 years: a prospective cohort study

PURPOSE

Few studies of risk factors for autism spectrum disorder (ASD) have been prospective in design or investigated the role of psychosocial factors measured during pregnancy. We aimed to investigate associations between prenatal psychosocial factors and risk of ASD in offspring, as part of a multicenter prospective cohort study of more than 2000 mother-child pairs.

METHODS

Nulliparous women aged 18-35 years, living in Pennsylvania, USA, were interviewed during pregnancy and multiple times postpartum over the course of a 3-year period. There were 2388 mothers who completed the Screen for Social Interaction Toddler Version (SSI-T), a measure of risk of ASD, when their child was 3-years old. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to investigate the associations between prenatal psychosocial factors-including total scores on three scales (social-support, stress and depression), trouble paying for basic needs, mental illness diagnosis and use of antidepressants-and risk of ASD in offspring at the age of 3-years, controlling for relevant confounding variables.

RESULTS

There were 102 children (4.3%) who were scored as at-risk of ASD at 3-years. Prenatal psychosocial factors that were significantly associated with risk of ASD in the adjusted models were lower social-support (p < 0.001); stress (p = 0.003): depression (< 0.001), trouble paying for basic needs (p = 0.012), mental illness diagnosis (p = 0.016), and use of antidepressants (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

These findings suggest that maternal experience of adverse psychosocial factors during pregnancy may be important intrauterine exposures related to the pathogenesis of ASD.

Opinion: on the importance of maintaining the functional form of explanatory variables

In medical research, continuous variables are often categorised into two or more groups before being included in the analysis; this practice often comes with a cost, such as loss of power in analysis, less reliable estimates, and can often leave residual confounding in the results. In this research report, we show this by way of estimates from a regression analysis looking at the association between acute kidney injury and post-operative mortality in a sample of 194 neonates who underwent the Norwood operation. Two models were developed, one using a continuous measure of renal function as the main explanatory variable and second using a categorised version of the same variable. A continuous measure of renal function is more likely to yield reliable estimates and also maintains more statistical power in the analysis to detect a relation between the exposure and outcome. It also reveals the true biological relationship between the exposure and outcome. Categorising a continuous variable may not only miss an important message, it can also get it wrong. Additionally, given a non-linear relationship is commonly encountered between the exposure and outcome variable, investigators are advised to retain a predictor with a linear term only when supported by data. All of this is particularly important in small data sets which account for the majority of clinical research studies.

Impact of obesity on patients undergoing surgery for rectal cancer in Australia and New Zealand

PURPOSE

Patients with obesity undergoing rectal cancer surgery may have an increased risk of developing complications, though evidence is inconclusive. The aim of this study was to determine the direct impact of obesity on postoperative outcomes using data from a large clinical registry.

METHOD

The Binational Colorectal Cancer Audit registry was used to identify patients who underwent rectal cancer surgery in Australia and New Zealand from 2007-2021. Primary outcomes were inpatient surgical and medical complications. Logistic regression models were developed to describe the association between body-mass index (BMI) and outcomes.

RESULTS

Among 3,708 patients (median age 66 years [IQR 56.75-75], 65.0% male), 2.0% had a BMI < 18.5 kg/m2, 35.4% had a BMI of 18.5-24.9 kg/m2, 37.6% had a BMI of 25.0-29.9 kg/m2, 16.7% had a BMI of 30.0-34.9 kg/m2, and 8.2% had a BMI ≥ 35.0 kg/m2. Surgical complications occurred in 27.7% of patients with a BMI of 18.5-24.9 kg/m2, 26.6% of patients with a BMI of 25.0-29.9 kg/m2 (OR 0.91, 95% CI 0.76-1.10), 28.5% with a BMI of 30.0-34.9 kg/m2 (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.76-1.21), and 33.2% with a BMI ≥ 35.0 kg/m2 (OR 1.27, 95% CI 0.94-1.71). Modelling BMI as a continuous variable confirmed a J-shaped relationship. The association between BMI and medical complications was more linear.

CONCLUSION

Risk of postoperative complications is increased in patients with obesity undergoing rectal cancer surgery.

Developing and Validating Models to Predict Progression to Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy

Purpose

To develop models for progression of nonproliferative diabetic retinopathy (NPDR) to proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) and determine if incorporating updated information improves model performance.

Design

Retrospective cohort study.

Participants

Electronic health record (EHR) data from a tertiary academic center, University of California San Francisco (UCSF), and a safety-net hospital, Zuckerberg San Francisco General (ZSFG) Hospital were used to identify patients with a diagnosis of NPDR, age ≥ 18 years, a diagnosis of type 1 or 2 diabetes mellitus, ≥ 6 months of ophthalmology follow-up, and no prior diagnosis of PDR before the index date (date of first NPDR diagnosis in the EHR).

Methods

Four survival models were developed: Cox proportional hazards, Cox with backward selection, Cox with LASSO regression and Random Survival Forest. For each model, three variable sets were compared to determine the impact of including updated clinical information: Static₀ (data up to the index date), Static_6m (data updated 6 months after the index date), and Dynamic (data in Static₀ plus data change during the 6-month period). The UCSF data were split into 80% training and 20% testing (internal validation). The ZSFG data were used for external validation. Model performance was evaluated by the Harrell's concordance index (C-Index).

Main Outcome Measures

Time to PDR.

Results

The UCSF cohort included 1130 patients and 92 (8.1%) patients progressed to PDR. The ZSFG cohort included 687 patients and 30 (4.4%) patients progressed to PDR. All models performed similarly (C-indices ∼ 0.70) in internal validation. The random survival forest with Static_6m set performed best in external validation (C-index 0.76). Insurance and age were selected or ranked as highly important by all models. Other key predictors were NPDR severity, diabetic neuropathy, number of strokes, mean Hemoglobin A1c, and number of hospital admissions.

Conclusions

Our models for progression of NPDR to PDR achieved acceptable predictive performance and validated well in an external setting. Updating the baseline variables with new clinical information did not consistently improve the predictive performance.

Financial Disclosures

Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found after the references.

U-shaped link of health checkup data and need for care using a time-dependent cox regression model with a restricted cubic spline

We explored risk indicators likely to result in older adults needing certified long-term care in Japan and ascertained whether this relationship forms a U-shaped link. We analyzed a community-based cohort of residents in Kitanagoya City, Aichi Prefecture, Japan. Participants were 3718 individuals aged 65 years and above who underwent health examinations between April 1, 2011 and March 31, 2012. For continuous clinical variables, we applied a time-dependent Cox regression model. Two types of models were applied-a linear and nonlinear model with restricted cubic splines-to assess the U-shaped association. Statistical significance (set at 0.05) for the nonlinearity was tested by comparing the spline and linear models. Among the participants, 701 were certified as needing Level 1 care or higher during a follow-up. Among the continuous clinical variables, the nonlinear model for body mass index, systolic blood pressure, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, alanine aminotransferase, aspartate aminotransferase, and γ-glutamyl transpeptidase revealed significant U-shaped associations as compared with the linear model in which the outcome was a certification of the need for nursing care. These results provide an important insight into the usefulness of nonlinear models for predicting the risk of such certification.

Small-area deprivation index does not improve the capability of multisource comorbidity score in mortality prediction

Background

The stratification of the general population according to health needs allows to provide better-tailored services. A simple score called Multisource Comorbidity Score (MCS) has been developed and validated for predicting several outcomes. The aim of this study was to evaluate whether the ability of MCS in predicting 1-year mortality improves by incorporating socioeconomic data (as measured by a deprivation index).

Methods

Beneficiaries of the Italian National Health Service who in the index year (2018) were aged 50-85 years and were resident in the Sicily region for at least 2 years were identified. For each individual, the MCS was calculated according to his/her clinical profile, and the deprivation index of the census unit level of the individual's residence was collected. Frailty models were fitted to assess the relationship between the indexes (MCS and deprivation index) and 1-year mortality. Akaike information criterion and Bayesian information criterion statistics were used to compare the goodness of fit of the model that included only MCS and the model that also contained the deprivation index. The models were further compared by means of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

Results

The final cohort included 1,062,221 individuals, with a mortality rate of 15.6 deaths per 1,000 person-years. Both MCS and deprivation index were positively associated with mortality.The goodness of fit statistics of the two models were very similar. For MCS only and MCS plus deprivation index models, Akaike information criterion were 17,013 and 17,038, respectively, whereas Bayesian information criterion were 16,997 and 17,000, respectively. The AUC values were 0.78 for both models.

Conclusion

The present study shows that socioeconomic features as measured by the deprivation index did not improve the capability of MCS in predicting 1-year risk of death. Future studies are needed to investigate other sources of data to enhance the risk stratification of populations.

Multifaceted Analysis of the Environmental Factors in Severely Injured Trauma: A 30-Day Survival Analysis

(1) Background: Most factors that predict the in-hospital survival rate in patients with severe trauma are patient-related factors; environmental factors are not currently considered important. Predicting the severity of trauma using environmental factors could be a reliable and easy-to-use method. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine whether environmental factors affect the survival in patients with severe trauma. (2) Methods: Medical records of patients who activated trauma team in the single regional trauma center, from 2016 to 2020, were retrospectively analyzed. After exclusion of young patients (<19 years old), cases of mild trauma (ISS < 16), and non-preventable deaths (trauma and injury severity score <25%), a total of 1706 patients were included in the study. (3) Results: In the Cox proportional hazard regression analysis, older age, night compared with day, and high rainfall were identified as statistically significant environmental predictors of mortality due to severe trauma. The relationship between mortality and precipitation showed a linear relationship, while that between mortality and temperature showed an inverted U-shaped relationship. (4) Conclusions: Various environmental factors of trauma affect mortality in patients with severe trauma. In predicting the survival of patients with severe trauma, environmental factors are considered relatively less important, though they can be used effectively.

LOCC: a novel visualization and scoring of cutoffs for continuous variables

Objective

There is a need for new methods to select and analyze cutoffs employed to define genes that are most prognostic significant and impactful. We designed LOCC (Luo's Optimization Categorization Curve), a novel tool to visualize and score continuous variables for a dichotomous outcome.

Methods

To demonstrate LOCC with real world data, we analyzed TCGA hepatocellular carcinoma gene expression and patient data using LOCC. We compared LOCC visualization to receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for prognostic modeling to showcase its utility in understanding predictors in various TCGA datasets.

Results

Analysis of E2F1 expression in hepatocellular carcinoma using LOCC demonstrated appropriate cutoff selection and validation. In addition, we compared LOCC visualization and scoring to ROC curves and c-statistics, demonstrating that LOCC better described predictors. Analysis of a previously published gene signature showed large differences in LOCC scoring, and removing the lowest scoring genes did not affect prognostic modeling of the gene signature demonstrating LOCC scoring could distinguish which predictors were most critical.

Conclusion

Overall, LOCC is a novel visualization tool for understanding and selecting cutoffs, particularly for gene expression analysis in cancer. The LOCC score can be used to rank genes for prognostic potential and is more suitable than ROC curves for prognostic modeling.

The adverse impact of pre-operative anaemia on survival following major lower limb amputation

INTRODUCTION

Approximately 5000 major lower-limb amputations (MLLA) for PAD occur per-annum in the UK with clinical outcomes being poor for this high-risk cohort of patients. Existing evidence suggests that anaemic surgical patients have an increased 30-day mortality, but this has not been explored in the context of MLLA. Recent prioritization processes suggested that MLLAs are a target area for research into outcome improvement. This cohort study evaluates the impact of anaemia on the outcome of MLLA to understand if optimization might improve outcomes.

METHODS

All PAD patients undergoing MLLA during 2015-2018 at a tertiary vascular centre were reviewed. Patients were stratified into groups; non-anaemia (>12 g/dL), mild-anaemia (12-10 g/dL) and severe-anaemia (<10 g/dL) by pre-operative haemoglobin (Hb). Primary outcome was overall survival by Kaplan-Meier. Secondary outcomes included length of stay (LOS), post-operative blood-transfusion, surgical-site infection (SSI) and myocardial infarction (MI). Cox-proportional-hazard and receiver-operator characteristics (ROC) analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

345 patients were followed up over (mean) 23 months. 105 were non-anaemic, 111 mildly anaemic and 129 severely anaemic. Patients with severe-anaemia had a higher incidence of heart and renal failure (p = 0.003) than those with non- or mild-anaemia. Overall survival worsened significantly with increasing anaemia (p = 0.001). LOS was significantly longer in mild-anaemia which is 26 (16-43) days, (p = 0.006) and severe-anaemia of 28 days (17-40), (p < 0.001) compared to non-anaemia of 18 (10-30) days. Post-operative blood-transfusion (RBC) was required more frequently in 70.5% of severely anaemic patients (p < 0.001), compared to mildly anaemic (24.3%) and non-anaemic (7.6%) patients, with those receiving RBCs having a significantly worse survival. There was no difference in MI, SSI or wound dehiscence. Anaemia was significantly associated with mortality; (HR 1.7 (1.04-2.78), p = 0.03). A minimum-Hb of 10.4 g/L (by ROC) was identified as a cutoff Hb for an increased risk of mortality.

CONCLUSION

Pre-operative anaemia is associated with worse outcome following MLLA, with increasing severity of anaemia associated with increasing mortality and RBC transfusion being potentially detrimental. More work is required to prospectively evaluate this relationship in this complex and multi-morbid cohort of patients.

Association of accelerometer-derived circadian abnormalities and genetic risk with incidence of atrial fibrillation

Evidence suggests potential links between circadian rhythm and atrial fibrillation (AF). However, whether circadian disruption can predict the onset of AF in the general population remains largely unknown. We aim to investigate the association of accelerometer-measured circadian rest-activity rhythm (CRAR, the most prominent circadian rhythm in humans) with the risk of AF, and examine joint associations and potential interactions of CRAR and genetic susceptibility with AF incidence. We include 62,927 white British participants of UK Biobank without AF at baseline. CRAR characteristics, including amplitude (strength), acrophase (timing of peak activity), pseudo-F (robustness), and mesor (height), are derived by applying an extended cosine model. Genetic risk is assessed with polygenic risk scores. The outcome is the incidence of AF. During a median follow-up of 6.16 years, 1920 participants developed AF. Low amplitude [hazard ratio (HR): 1.41, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.25-1.58], delayed acrophase (HR: 1.24, 95% CI: 1.10-1.39), and low mesor (HR: 1.36, 95% CI: 1.21-1.52), but not low pseudo-F, are significantly associated with a higher risk of AF. No significant interactions between CRAR characteristics and genetic risk are observed. Joint association analyses reveal that participants with unfavourable CRAR characteristics and high genetic risk yield the highest risk of incident AF. These associations are robust after controlling for multiple testing and in a series of sensitivity analyses. Accelerometer-measured CRAR abnormalities, characterized by decreased strength and height, and later timing of peak activity of circadian rhythm, are associated with a higher risk of AF in the general population.

Body mass index and atrial fibrillation recurrence post ablation: A systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis

Objectives

The aim of this study was to evaluate the shape of the dose-response relationship between body mass index (BMI) and atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence in patients who have undergone radiofrequency ablation.

Methods

Studies investigating BMI and AF recurrence in patients with AF after ablation were identified through electronic searches in the PubMed, EMBASE, and Cochrane Library databases. The potential non-linear relationship was fitted using robust error meta-regression. Our study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42019121373).

Results

Twenty-six cohort studies with 7,878 cases/26,450 individuals were included, and a linear dose-response relationship between BMI and AF recurrence (P _{non-linearity} = 0.12) was found. The risk of AF recurrence in patients with a BMI over 28 was significantly increased. Specifically, for each 5 kg/m² increase in BMI, the risk of AF recurrence increased by 15% (95% CI: 1.08-1.22) with moderate heterogeneity (I ² = 53%). Subgroup analyses showed that the pooled risk ratio was not significantly changed in subgroup analysis adjustment for the following important potential intermediate factors: left atrial diameter and obstructive sleep apnea.

Conclusion

This study showed that there is a borderline positive linear association between BMI and AF recurrence post ablation. Overweight and obesity are significantly associated with AF recurrence.

Systematic review registration

https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, identifier CRD42019128770.

Misspecification of confounder-exposure and confounder-outcome associations leads to bias in effect estimates

BACKGROUND

Confounding is a common issue in epidemiological research. Commonly used confounder-adjustment methods include multivariable regression analysis and propensity score methods. Although it is common practice to assess the linearity assumption for the exposure-outcome effect, most researchers do not assess linearity of the relationship between the confounder and the exposure and between the confounder and the outcome before adjusting for the confounder in the analysis. Failing to take the true non-linear functional form of the confounder-exposure and confounder-outcome associations into account may result in an under- or overestimation of the true exposure effect. Therefore, this paper aims to demonstrate the importance of assessing the linearity assumption for confounder-exposure and confounder-outcome associations and the importance of correctly specifying these associations when the linearity assumption is violated.

METHODS

A Monte Carlo simulation study was used to assess and compare the performance of confounder-adjustment methods when the functional form of the confounder-exposure and confounder-outcome associations were misspecified (i.e., linearity was wrongly assumed) and correctly specified (i.e., linearity was rightly assumed) under multiple sample sizes. An empirical data example was used to illustrate that the misspecification of confounder-exposure and confounder-outcome associations leads to bias.

RESULTS

The simulation study illustrated that the exposure effect estimate will be biased when for propensity score (PS) methods the confounder-exposure association is misspecified. For methods in which the outcome is regressed on the confounder or the PS, the exposure effect estimate will be biased if the confounder-outcome association is misspecified. In the empirical data example, correct specification of the confounder-exposure and confounder-outcome associations resulted in smaller exposure effect estimates.

CONCLUSION

When attempting to remove bias by adjusting for confounding, misspecification of the confounder-exposure and confounder-outcome associations might actually introduce bias. It is therefore important that researchers not only assess the linearity of the exposure-outcome effect, but also of the confounder-exposure or confounder-outcome associations depending on the confounder-adjustment method used.

High serum alpha-fetoprotein levels in primary infertile men

BACKGROUND

Alfa-fetoprotein (AFP) is a serum glycoprotein highly produced during fetal development. While AFP synthesis drops dramatically after birth, AFP production only persists or returns under specific pathological condition.

OBJECTIVE

We sought to investigate the rate of and the potential meaning of high AFP serum levels in men seeking first medical attention for couple's primary infertility.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Socio-demographic and clinical data from 1803 non-Finnish, White-European primary infertile men were retrospectively analysed. AFP was routinely measured in each patient (high AFP was defined as >7 ng/ml). Men with history of liver diseases, testicular cancer, or other known causes of increased AFP levels were excluded from the final analysis. Semen analyses were based on the 2010 World Health Organization reference criteria. Descriptive statistics and logistic regression models tested the association between serum AFP and clinical variables. Possible nonlinear relationships were graphically explored with locally estimated scatterplot smoothing method.

RESULTS

Overall, high serum AFP level was found in 29 (1.7%) patients. Normal versus high AFP levels patients were comparable in terms of body mass index (BMI), Charlson Comorbidity Index, waist circumference, smoking habits, history of cryptorchidism, testicular volume, and serum hormones (i.e., follicle-stimulating hormone, luteinizing hormone, and total testosterone). Conversely, men with higher AFP levels were older (p = 0.02), had lower sperm concentration (p = 0.003), and were more frequently oligozoospermic and azoospermic (all p ≤ 0.03). At multivariate analysis, high AFP levels were independently associated with oligozoospermia (OR 3.79; p = 0.033) and azoospermia (OR 3.29; p = 0.006). Likewise, if AFP levels increase, patients were found to be older, with higher BMI and to have more comorbidities (all p < 0.05).

DISCUSSION

Unexplained high AFP levels account for almost 2% of cases in primary infertile patients without a previous history of associated disorders. Higher serum AFP levels are linked with aberrant sperm counts, older age, obesity, and a greater amount of comorbid conditions.

CONCLUSION

Despite the need for additional validation, these data suggest that serum AFP measurement might have a multifaceted role over the diagnostic work-up of males presenting for couple's infertility.

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