The effect of smoking on the duration of life with and without disability, Belgium 1997-2011

Relationship between kidney function and healthy life expectancy: A historical cohort study

BACKGROUND

The impact of chronic kidney disease (CKD) on healthy life expectancy and healthcare costs requires research. This study examined associations between CKD and healthy life expectancy, and its economic burden.

METHODS

This study of community-dwelling adults residing in Hakui City, Ishikawa Prefecture, Japan used data from the National Health Insurance database between 2012 and 2022. Participants were grouped by baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) (< 45, ≥ 45 to < 60, ≥60 to < 75, ≥75 to < 90, and ≥ 90 mL/min/1.73 m²). The primary endpoint was a composite of becoming a care level ≥ 2 or death. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to calculate the risk regarding time to the primary endpoint. Secondary endpoints were the annual medical and long-term care costs.

RESULTS

The 5,592 participants had a mean follow-up of 6.4 years. The hazard ratio was 1.86 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.35 to 2.55) for the eGFR < 45 group and 1.60 (95% CI: 1.13 to 2.25) for the eGFR ≥ 90 group, both compared with the eGFR ≥ 60 to < 75 group. Both annual costs were significantly higher in the lower eGFR groups than in the higher eGFR groups. For the eGFR < 45 group, the median medical care cost was 0.38 million yen/year in all participants and the median long-term care cost was 0.40 million yen/year in primary endpoint achievers. A lower eGFR was correlated with longer unhealthy years of life.

CONCLUSIONS

Higher and lower eGFRs were associated with increased risks of reduced healthy life expectancy. A lower eGFR was associated with higher medical and long-term care costs.

A nomogram for predicting disability-free survival in older adults over 15 years: A population-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

This article aimed to develop and validate a simple-to-use nomogram to predict 15-year disability-free survival among older adults.

METHODS

A cohort of 1878 disability-free participants aged ≥60 was followed for 15 years. Participants were randomly divided into a training cohort for nomogram development (n = 1314 [70 %]) and validation cohort to confirm the model's performance (n = 564 [30 %]). Information on socio-demographic, lifestyle factors, the Life Satisfaction Index A (LSI-A), chronic diseases, and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score, and biomarkers were collected through interviews, clinical and neuropsychological examinations, and medical records. Disability-free survival was defined as survival in the absence of dementia and physical disability, and the composite endpoint is first occurrence of events of death, dementia and physical disability. We developed a nomogram summing the number of risk points corresponding to weighted covariates to predict disability-free survival. Validation of the nomogram using C statistic, calibration plots, and Kaplan-Meier curves.

RESULTS

In the multivariate-adjusted model, factors associated with composite end point were younger age, high MMSE (hazard ratio [HR], 0.93; [95 % CI, 0.87-0.99]), high LSI-A (0.78, [0.64-0.97]), non-smoking (0.74, [0.59-0.94]), engagement in physical leisure activity (0.62, [0.48-0.78]), and absence of chronic diseases (0.78, [0.66-0.91]). Incorporating these 6 factors, the nomogram achieved C-statistics of 0.78 (95 % CI, 0.75-0.81) and 0.77 (95 % CI, 0.74-0.80) in predicting disability-free survival in the training and validation cohorts, respectively, and had good calibration curves.

CONCLUSION

The nomogram was able to predict long-term of disability-free survival and performed well on internal validation, and may be considered for use in effective surveillance, promote, management of clinical and public health ageing.

The trajectory of smoking cessation after treatment and its related factors in Taiwan

Smoking has multiple negative effects on health; therefore, the Taiwanese government provides smoking cessation clinics to smokers. This study aimed to explore the trajectory of smoking cessation after smokers received treatment and the variables related to different trajectories. A retrospective longitudinal study was conducted, in which 735 adult smokers who received smoking cessation medications were recruited. The participants' demographic characteristics, chronic diseases, smoking characteristics, and cigarette dependence were collected from chart review. The amount of smoking was collected at baseline, and at 1 week, 1 month, 3 months, and 6 months after treatment. The Proc Traj procedure for group-based modeling and multinomial logistic regression were used for statistical analysis. Three trajectories were identified: early quitters (28.03%), late quitters (11.43%) and reducers (60.54%). Compared with early quitters, reducers were younger and had a higher probability of severe cigarette dependence. Compared with early quitters, late quitters had a higher number of taking smoking cessation medications. The findings revealed that approximately 60% of participants who received smoking cessation treatment could not completely quit smoking, and that age, number of medications taken, and cigarette dependence were significant predictors of different trajectories.

The Prevalence of Functional Disability and Associated Factors among Older People Attending Primary Health-care Centers in Riyadh City

BACKGROUND: The burden of disability among the older population is increasing as older people grow with significant social and economic negative impacts. AIM: This study examines functional disability and its associated risk factors among older Saudi citizens attending primary health-care centers (PHCCs) in Riyadh city. METHODS: This descriptive cross-sectional study was carried out on 504 older Saudi citizens aged ≥60 years who attended a PHCC in Riyadh city between December 2019 and May 2020. Interviewer-administered questionnaire was used to assessing the disability in activities of daily living (ADL) and instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) using the Katz Index and Lawton scale. RESULTS: The prevalence of ADL and IADL disability among participants was 24.6% and 58.5%, respectively. Smoking (p = 0.019), dyslipidemia (p = 0.018), rheumatoid arthritis (p = 0.028), history of falls (p = 0.014), and an emergency visit (p = 0.049) were risk factors associated with ADL disability. Predictors of IADL disability were advanced age (p = 0.004), being female (p = 0.029), and the need for a caregiver (p = 0.000). The need for homecare was positively associated with ADL dependency (p = 0.008) and IADL dependency (p = 0.003). Furthermore, regular physical activity was a protective factor against ADL functional disabilities (p = 0.002) and IADL functional disabilities (p = 0.000). CONCLUSION: This study found a high prevalence of ADL and IADL disability among elderly Saudis. Disability was associated with several sociodemographic and health status factors. The findings of this study highlight the priority of effective and targeted preventive interventions for disability.

Determinants of inequalities in years with disability: an international-comparative study

Background

Persons with a lower socioeconomic position spend more years with disability, despite their shorter life expectancy, but it is unknown what the important determinants are. This study aimed to quantify the contribution to educational inequalities in years with disability of eight risk factors: father’s manual occupation, low income, few social contacts, smoking, high alcohol consumption, high body-weight, low physical exercise and low fruit and vegetable consumption.

Methods

We collected register-based mortality and survey-based disability and risk factor data from 15 European countries covering the period 2010–14 for most countries. We calculated years with disability between the ages of 35 and 80 by education and gender using the Sullivan method, and determined the hypothetical effect of changing the prevalence of each risk factor to the prevalence observed among high educated (‘upward levelling scenario’), using Population Attributable Fractions.

Results

Years with disability among low educated were higher than among high educated, with a difference of 4.9 years among men and 5.5 years among women for all countries combined. Most risk factors were more prevalent among low educated. We found the largest contributions to inequalities in years with disability for low income (men: 1.0 year; women: 1.4 year), high body-weight (men: 0.6 year; women: 1.2 year) and father’s manual occupation (men: 0.7 year; women: 0.9 year), but contributions differed by country. The contribution of smoking was relatively small.

Conclusions

Disadvantages in material circumstances (low income), circumstances during childhood (father’s manual occupation) and high body-weight contribute to inequalities in years with disability.

The combined effect of behavioural risk factors on disability in aging adults from the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA)

The objective of this study was to explore how behavioural risk factors (smoking, physical activity, and nutrition) cluster together and assess how clusters of behavioural risk factors are associated with functional disability by age and sex at the individual and population level. We used currently available baseline cross-sectional data from the Canadian Longitudinal Study on Aging (CLSA). The CLSA is a national, population-based longitudinal study established to understand and examine health of an aging population. This study included 51,338 Canadian men and women aged 45 to 85 years residing in the community in 10 Canadian provinces. Behavioural risk factors included smoking, physical activity, and nutrition. The main outcome used in the study was functional disability, which was assessed using a questionnaire adapted from the Older Americans Resources and Services Multidimensional Assessment Questionnaire. In this analyses of unique combinations of the risk factors of smoking, physical activity, and nutritional risk, the magnitude of the association of the behavioural risk factors with functional disability was dependent on which risk factors were included and differed by age and sex strata. Of the risk factors, physical activity accounted for between 70% to 90% of the total population level risk in individuals with all three risk factors, suggesting it is a key driver of the population burden of disability. Together, these results show that considering unique clusters of risk factors, as well as age and sex, is essential for tailoring public health strategies to reduce the burden of disability among aging populations.

The Impact of Smoking and Obesity on Disability-Free Life Expectancy in Older Australians

BACKGROUND

Smoking and obesity are 2 modifiable risk factors for disability. We examine the impact of smoking and obesity on disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) at older ages, using 2 levels of disability.

METHOD

We used the DYNOPTA dataset, derived by harmonizing and pooling risk factors and disability outcomes from 5 Australian longitudinal aging studies. We defined mobility disability as inability to walk 1 km, and more severe (activities of daily living [ADL]) disability by the inability to dress or bathe. Mortality data for the analytic sample (N = 20 401; 81.2% women) were obtained from Government Records via data linkage. We estimated sex-specific total life expectancy, DFLE, and years spent with disability by Interpolated Markov Chain (IMaCh) software for each combination of smoking (never vs ever), obesity (body mass index ≥30 vs 18.5 to <30), and education (left school age 14 or younger vs age 15 or older).

RESULTS

Compared to those without either risk factor, high educated nonobese smokers at age 65 lived shorter lives (men and women: 2.5 years) and fewer years free of mobility disability (men: 2.1 years; women: 2.0 years), with similar results for ADL disability. Obesity had the largest effect on mobility disability in women; high educated obese nonsmoking women lived 1.3 years less than nonsmoking, not obese women but had 5.1 years fewer free of mobility disability and 3.2 fewer free of ADL disability. Differences between risk factor groups were similar for the low educated.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings suggest eliminating obesity would lead to an absolute reduction of disability, particularly in women.

Incidence Rates of Disability and Its Associated Factors among Korean Community-Dwelling Older Adults

BACKGROUND

We aimed to identify incidence rates of disability and its associated factors among Korean community-dwelling older adults.

METHODS

The sample included 1,739 Koreans aged over 65 yr from the Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging (2006-2016) who reported no limitations in activities of daily living (ADL) or instrumental activities of daily living (IADL) at baseline (2006) and had complete data for other covariates. ADL, IADL, socio-demographic, lifestyle, and health-condition data were collected and analyzed using multiple logistic regression models.

RESULTS

The 10-yr incidence rates of ADL and IADL disability in subjects with no disability at baseline were 11.6% and 21.6%, respectively. After adjusting for socio-demographic, lifestyle, and health-condition factors, the incidence of ADL disability was higher in women (odds ratio [OR] =1.418, 95% confidence interval [CI]=1.102-2.613) and increased with age (OR=1.170, 95% CI=1.133-1.208), multi-morbidity (OR=1.194, 95% CI=1.015-1.406), and obesity (OR=1.563, 95% CI=1.057-2.311). It decreased in subjects living alone (OR=0.531, 95% CI=0.328-0.856). The incidence of IADL disability increased with age (OR=1.131, 95% CI=1.102-1.161), multi-morbidity (OR=1.199, 95% CI=1.054-1.365), and cognitive disability (OR=1.422, 95% CI=1.083-1.866) and decreased for subjects living alone (OR=0.484, 95% CI=0.328-0.715) and with overweight (OR=0.725, 95% CI=0.532-0.988).

CONCLUSION

Incidence rates of disability differed considerably based on socio-demographic, lifestyle, and health-condition factors. These results suggest the importance of identifying factors that can decrease the risk of disability in this group and of prevention efforts in populations with a higher disability risk.

Physical functioning and survival: Is the link weaker among Latino and black older adults?

Measures of physical functioning are among the strongest predictors of mortality, but no previous study has assessed whether the predictive value of such measures varies by race/ethnicity, as has been done for the simple self-rated health question. The current study tests whether the relationship between two measures of physical functioning (the number of self-reported functional limitations and measured walking speed) and mortality is weaker (has a lower hazard ratio) for Latinos and blacks than for whites. Data were drawn from the 1998-2014 waves of the Health and Retirement Study, with mortality follow-up through 2016. We used Cox hazard models with household random effects to test for interactions between race/ethnicity and these measures of physical functioning and verified earlier findings for self-rated health. The number of self-reported functional limitations is significantly related to mortality for all racial/ethnic groups, but has a substantially lower hazard ratio for blacks and Latinos than for whites, as hypothesized. This hazard ratio remains lower for blacks and Latinos after adjustment for sociodemographic characteristics and health conditions. These findings suggest that the higher rates of functional limitations observed among Latinos and blacks compared with whites may reflect a history of strenuous physical work, inadequately controlled pain, lower leisure-time physical activity, or untreated/under-treated mobility problems that can lead to reduced physical performance without necessarily having a substantial effect on mortality risk. On the other hand, we do not detect significant racial/ethnic differences in the association between measured walking speed and subsequent mortality. This may be the result of the smaller sample size for the walking speed tests, the more nuanced nature of the continuous walking speed measure, or the fact that the walking speed test captures only a subset of the limitations included in the self-reports.

Smoking status and mortality outcomes following percutaneous coronary intervention

Objective

The aim of this study was to assess the impact of smoking on short (30-day) and intermediate (30-day to 6-month) mortality following percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI).

Background

The effect of smoking on mortality post-PCI is lacking in the modern PCI era.

Methods

This was a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data comparing short- and intermediate-term mortality amongst smokers, ex-smokers and non-smokers.

Results

The study cohort consisted of 12,656 patients: never-smokers (n = 4288), ex-smokers (n = 4806) and current smokers (n = 3562). The mean age (±standard deviation) was 57 (±11) years in current smokers compared with 67 (±11) in ex-smokers and 67 (±12) in never-smokers; p &lt; 0.0001. PCI was performed for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in 84.1% of current smokers, 57% of ex-smokers and 62.9% in never-smokers; p &lt; 0.0001. In a logistic regression model, the adjusted odds ratios (95% confidence intervals (CIs)) for 30-day mortality were 1.60 (1.10–2.32) in current smokers and 0.98 (0.70–1.38) in ex-smokers compared with never-smokers. In the Cox proportional hazard model, the adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) for mortality between 30 days and 6 months were 1.03 (0.65–1.65) in current smokers and 1.19 (0.84–1.67) in ex-smokers compared with never-smokers.

Conclusion

This large observational study of non-selected patients demonstrates that ex-smokers and never-smokers are of similar age at first presentation to PCI, and there is no short- or intermediate-term mortality difference between them following PCI. Current smokers undergo PCI at a younger age, more often for ACS, and have higher short-term mortality. These findings underscore the public message on the benefits of smoking cessation and the harmful effects of smoking.

Potential impact of reduced tobacco use on life and health expectancies in Belgium

OBJECTIVES

We investigated the potential impact of reduced tobacco use scenarios on total life expectancy and health expectancies, i.e., healthy life years and unhealthy life years.

METHODS

Data from the Belgian Health Interview Survey 2013 were used to estimate smoking and disability prevalence. Disability was based on the Global Activity Limitation Indicator. We used DYNAMO-HIA to quantify the impacts of risk factor changes and to compare the "business-as-usual" with alternative scenarios.

RESULTS

The "business-as-usual" scenario estimated that in 2028 the 15-year-old men/women would live additional 50/52 years without disability and 14/17 years with disability. The "smoking-free population" scenario added 3.4/2.8 healthy life years and reduced unhealthy life years by 0.79/1.9. Scenarios combining the prevention of smoking initiation with smoking cessation programs are the most effective, yielding the largest increase in healthy life years (1.9/1.7) and the largest decrease in unhealthy life years (- 0.80/- 1.47).

CONCLUSIONS

Health impact assessment tools provide different scenarios for evidence-informed public health actions. New anti-smoking strategies or stricter enforcement of existing policies potentially gain more healthy life years and reduce unhealthy life years in Belgium.

Contribution of chronic conditions to gender disparities in health expectancies in Belgium, 2001, 2004 and 2008

Background

We aimed to investigate the contribution of chronic conditions to gender differences in disability-free life expectancy (DFLE) and life expectancy with disability (LED) in Belgium in 2001, 2004 and 2008.

Methods

Data on disability and chronic conditions from participants of the 2001, 2004 and 2008 Health Interview Surveys in Belgium were used to estimate disability prevalence by cause using the attribution method. Disability prevalence was applied to life tables to estimate DFLE and LED using the Sullivan method. Decomposition techniques were used to assess the contribution of mortality and disability and further of causes of death and disability to gender disparities in DFLE and LED.

Results

Higher LE, DFLE and LED were observed for women compared with men in all years studied. A decrease in the gender gap in LE (2001: 5.9; 2004: 5.6; 2008: 5.3) was observed in our cross-sectional approach followed by a decrease in gender differences in DFLE (2001: 1.9; 2004: 1.3; 2008: 0.5) and increase in LED (2001: 4.0; 2004: 4.4; 2008: 4.8). The higher LED in women was attributed to their lower mortality due to lung/larynx/trachea cancer, ischaemic heart diseases, and external causes (2001 and 2004) and higher disability prevalence due to musculoskeletal conditions (2008). Higher DFLE was observed in women owing to their lower mortality from lung/larynx/trachea cancer, ischaemic heart diseases, digestive cancer and chronic respiratory diseases.

Conclusion

To promote healthy ageing of populations, priority should be given to reduce the LED disadvantage in women by targeting non-fatal diseases, such as musculoskeletal conditions.

Contribution of chronic conditions to smoking differences in life expectancy with and without disability in Belgium

Background

Smoking is the leading cause of premature mortality and morbidity. This study aimed at assessing the impact of smoking on life expectancy (LE) and LE with (LED) and without disability (DFLE). We further estimated the contribution of disability and mortality and their causes to differences in LED and DFLE by smoking.

Methods

Data on disability, chronic conditions, and smoking from 17 148 participants of the 1997, 2001, 2004 Belgian Health Interview Surveys were used to estimate causes of disability using the attribution method. A 10-year mortality follow-up of survey participants was used. The Sullivan method was applied to estimate LED and DFLE. The contribution of disability and mortality and of causes of disability and death to smoking differences in LED and DFLE was assessed using decomposition methods.

Results

Never smokers live longer than daily smokers. DFLE advantage at age 15 of +8.5/+4.3 years (y) in men/women never compared with daily smokers was the result of lower mortality (+6.2y/+3y) and lower disability (2.3y/1.3y). The extra 0.3y/1.6y LED in never smokers was due to lower mortality (+2.6y/+2.9y) and lower disability (-2.3y/-1.3y). Lower mortality from lung/larynx/trachea cancer, chronic respiratory, and ischaemic heart diseases was the main contributor to higher LED and DFLE in never smokers. Lower disability from musculoskeletal conditions in men and chronic respiratory diseases in women increased LED and DFLE in never smokers.

Conclusions

Mortality and disability advantage among never smokers contributed to longer DFLE, while mortality advantage contributed to their longer LED.

Contribution of specific diseases and injuries to changes in health adjusted life expectancy in 187 countries from 1990 to 2013: retrospective observational study

OBJECTIVE

To quantify and compare the contribution of 306 diseases and injuries to the changes in health adjusted life expectancy at birth (HALE₀) between 1990 and 2013.

DESIGN

Retrospective demographic analysis based on aggregated data and using life table technique, Sullivan method, and decomposition method for differences in health expectancy.

SETTING

The globe, 21 regions, and 187 countries, covered in the Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2013.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Cause specific contribution to changes in HALE₀ between 1990 and 2013 in terms of mortality effect, disability effect, and total effect.

RESULTS

Between 1990 and 2013, global HALE₀ increased by 5.31 years for males and 5.73 years for females. The cross national Gini coefficient of HALE₀ for both sexes combined decreased by 15.22% from 0.0736 to 0.0624. HALE₀ declined in 11 countries during the period, predominantly owing to HIV/AIDS except in Belize, Belarus, and Paraguay. Controlling communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases accounted for 56.47% (3.10 years) of changes in HALE₀ for both sexes combined, followed by non-communicable diseases (30.05%; 1.65 years) and injuries (13.67%; 0.75 years). Globally, HIV/AIDS caused the biggest reduction in HALE₀ (-0.28 years) and mainly afflicted residents in southern (-7.86 years), western (-1.53 years), and eastern (-1.38 years) sub-Saharan Africa. Diabetes had the second biggest negative total effect on changes in HALE₀ (-0.12 years), which was quite widespread across regions. Despite their positive total effect in high income regions, such non-communicable diseases as ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and hypertensive heart disease had a negative total effect in many low and middle income regions. Mortality reduction was the predominant driver (93.62%; 5.14 years) for improvement in HALE₀, accompanied by an increase of 0.80 years in life expectancy lived with disability at birth. Only 44 (27%) of 163 causes at level 3 in the GBD cause hierarchy influenced changes in HALE₀, mainly or only through disability.

CONCLUSIONS

Between 1990 and 2013, the globe made achievements in not only promoting population health as a whole but reducing health inequality between countries. This study pinpoints the priority diseases and injuries for altering the declining health trend in 11 countries, for curbing the epidemic of non-communicable diseases in low and middle income countries, and for promoting compression of morbidity worldwide. The detailed country specific decomposition results of effects of diseases and injuries on change in population health will further facilitate the development of national health policies.

Obesity Paradox in Caucasian Seniors: Results of the PolSenior Study

OBJECTIVES

To investigate the influence of overweight and obesity on general performance and mortality in seniors.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional multidisciplinary study on ageing of the Polish population.

SETTING

Community-dwelling individuals aged 65 years or older, selected using three-stage stratified, proportional draw.

PARTICIPANTS

4944 Polish Caucasian seniors, aged 65 years or older recruited between October 2007 and October 2010.

MEASUREMENTS

All study subjects underwent measurement of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC), and arm circumference (AC). The physical and cognitive performance was evaluated using the Katz Activities of Daily Living (ADL) score and Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), respectively. Morbidity data were obtained from a medical questionnaire. Mortality data were obtained from the Population Register of Poland between October 2015 and October 2018.

RESULTS

Increasing age was associated with a decreased prevalence of obesity (all p<0.001). Higher BMI, WC and AC values were associated with higher ADL and MMSE scores (all p<0.001). On multivariate analysis, all three body measurements in women remained independent predictors of the ADL score (BMI p=0.002, WC p=0.005, AC p<0.001) and MMSE score (p<0.001, p=0.003, p<0.001). In men, physical functioning was associated with AC (p=0.003), and cognitive status was associated with AC (p<0.001) and BMI (p=0.013). There was no association between general obesity, abdominal obesity, or AC with several aging-related adverse conditions. Kaplan-Meier survival curves showed that overweight and obesity were associated with the lowest mortality. On multivariate analysis, BMI and AC values remained independent predictors of mortality. In successfully aging individuals, neither BMI, WC, nor AC remained such predictors.

CONCLUSIONS

Overweight and obesity in Caucasian seniors are not associated with deterioration of physical and cognitive function or with increased mortality.

Changes in health in Belgium, 1990-2016: a benchmarking analysis based on the global burden of disease 2016 study

BACKGROUND

Despite increasing of the Belgian health expenditures, several indicators related to population health showed poor results. The objectives of this study were to perform an in-depth analysis of the secular trend of Belgian health status using the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2016 study results for Belgium, and to compare these results with other European countries.

METHODS

We collected results of the Global Burden of Disease 2016 study through the GBD results and visualization tools. We benchmarked Belgian GBD results with the other initial members of the European Union (EU15).

RESULTS

Belgium performed significantly better in 2016 than in 1990 in terms of age-standardized (AS) Year of Life Lost (YLL) rates but not significantly different in terms of AS Year Lived with Disability (YLD) and Disability-Adjusted Life Year (DALY) rates. The contribution of AS YLDs to total of AS DALYs increased from 1990 (42%) to 2016 (54%). Although AS YLD and DALY rates did not seem to differ between Belgium and the EU15 from 1990 to 2016, the ranking of Belgium among the EU15 in terms of AS DALY and YLL rates was worse in 2016 than in 1990. Belgium had significantly higher AS YLL rates for lower respiratory infections (B: 264 AS YLLs [95% uncertainty interval [UI] 231-301] per 100,000; EU15: 188 AS YLLs [95%UI 168-212] per 100,000), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (B: 368 AS YLLs [95%UI 331-407] per 100,000; EU15: 285 AS YLLs [95%UI 258-316] per 100,000) and tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (B: 785 AS YLLs [95%UI 699-879] per 100,000; EU15: 613 AS YLLs [95%UI 556-674] per 100,000).

CONCLUSION

Belgium's ranking among the EU15 in terms of AS YLL and DALY rates decreased from 1990 to 2016. Significant health gains appear possible by acting on risk factors directly linked to a significant part of the Belgian burden of diseases, i.e., alcohol and tobacco consumption, and high body mass index. National burden of disease estimates can help defining Belgian health targets and are necessary as external validity of GBD results is not always guaranteed.

The impact of smoking on expected lifetime with and without chronic disease among Palestinian men in the West Bank

Background

The purpose of the study was to estimate life expectancy and the average lifetime with and without chronic disease among male never smokers, ex-smokers and smokers living in the West Bank of the occupied Palestinian territory.

Methods

The study used a life table for the West Bank male population and Danish relative risk estimates for death for smokers and ex-smokers vs. never smokers and utilized data from the Palestinian Family Survey 2010. Expected lifetime with and without chronic disease was estimated and the contributions from the mortality and the morbidity effect to smoking related difference in average lifetime with and without chronic disease were assessed by decomposition.

Results

In the West bank 40% of the male population are smokers. Life expectancy of 15-year-old Palestinian men who would never start smoking was 59.5 years, 41.1 of which were expected to be without chronic disease. Ex-smokers could expect 57.9 years of remaining lifetime, 37.7 years of which without disease. For lifelong heavy smokers (> 20 cigarettes per day), the expected lifetime was reduced to 52.6 years, of which 38.5 years were without chronic disease. Of the total loss of 6.9 years of life expectancy among heavy smokers, the mortality effect accounted for 2.5 years without and 4.4 years with disease, whereas the morbidity effect was negligible.

Conclusions

The high prevalence of smoking causes a considerable loss of life years and lifetime without chronic disease. We recommend the Palestinian health authorities to enforce the anti-smoking law.

Combined healthy lifestyle behaviours and incident disability in an elderly population: the Ohsaki Cohort 2006 Study

BACKGROUND

The joint impact of healthy lifestyle behaviours (HLBs) on incident disability among elderly populations is still uncertain. This cohort study was conducted to estimate the population-attributable fraction (PAF) of combined HLBs for disability reduction in elderly Japanese.

METHODS

We analysed 10-year follow-up data for 9910 community-dwelling elderly people (≥65 years) in a prospective cohort study. Information on lifestyle behaviours and food consumption was collected via a questionnaire in 2006. The exposure variable was defined as a healthy lifestyle index (HLI), which represented the summed number of HLBs ('never or former smoker', 'time spent walking ≥0.5 hour/day' and 'vegetable and fruit consumption volume ≥median'). Data on incident disability were retrieved from the public Long term Care Insurance database. HRs and 95% CIs were estimated by Cox proportional regression and the PAFs and their 95% CIs were estimated with the multivariate-adjusted model.

RESULTS

The 10-year incidence of disability was 35.7%. An inverse dose-response relationship was observed (HR (95% CI): 0.85(0.81 to 0.90) for each one-point increase of the HLI score, p-trend <0.001). Based on multivariate-adjustment, adherence to each one additional HLB gives PAF of 10.5%(95% CI 9.0% to 12.0%) for disability reduction. The PAF would have been 25.9%(14.2% to 36.0%) if all subjects had adhered to all three HLBs.

CONCLUSION

Combined HLBs may have a substantial impact on reducing the risk of incident disability among elderly people. Even having one more healthy lifestyle habit may bring considerable benefit.

Does current smoking predict future frailty? The English longitudinal study of ageing

Background

smoking is the single most preventable cause of morbidity and mortality. The evidence on independent associations between smoking in later life and incident frailty is scarce.

Objectives

to examine the effect of current smoking in older people on the risk of developing frailty, controlling for important confounders.

Methods

we used data of 2,542 community-dwelling older people aged ≥60 years in England. Participants were classified as current smokers or non-smokers. Frailty was defined using modified Fried criteria. Multivariable logistic regression models were used to examine risk of 4-year incident frailty in current smokers compared with non-smokers, adjusted for demographic, socioeconomic and health variables.

Results

of 2,542 participants, 261 and 2,281 were current smokers and non-smokers, respectively. The current smokers were significantly frailer, younger, with lower BMI, less educated, less wealthy and lonelier compared with non-smokers at baseline. In multivariable logistic regression models adjusting for age and gender, current smokers were twice as likely to develop frailty compared with non-smokers (odds ratio (OR) = 2.07, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.39-3.39, P = 0.001). The association is attenuated largely by controlling for socioeconomic status. Smoking remains significantly associated with incident frailty in fully adjusted models including age, gender, socioeconomic status, alcohol use, cognitive function and loneliness (OR = 1.60, 95% CI = 1.02-2.51, P = 0.04). The relationship is however attenuated when taking account of non-response bias through multiple imputation.

Conclusions

current smokers compared with non-smokers were significantly more likely to develop frailty over 4 years among community-dwelling older people. Given that smoking is a modifiable lifestyle factor, smoking cessation may potentially prevent or delay developing frailty, even in old age.

Site-specific cancer mortality inequalities by employment and occupational groups: a cohort study among Belgian adults, 2001-2011

OBJECTIVE

This study probes into site-specific cancer mortality inequalities by employment and occupational group among Belgians, adjusted for other indicators of socioeconomic (SE) position.

DESIGN

This cohort study is based on record linkage between the Belgian censuses of 1991 and 2001 and register data on emigration and mortality for 01/10/2001 to 31/12/2011.

SETTING

Belgium.

PARTICIPANTS

The study population contains all Belgians within the economically active age (25-65 years) at the census of 1991.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Both absolute and relative measures were calculated. First, age-standardised mortality rates have been calculated, directly standardised to the Belgian population. Second, mortality rate ratios were calculated using Poisson's regression, adjusted for education, housing conditions, attained age, region and migrant background.

RESULTS

This study highlights inequalities in site-specific cancer mortality, both related to being employed or not and to the occupational group of the employed population. Unemployed men and women show consistently higher overall and site-specific cancer mortality compared with the employed group. Also within the employed group, inequalities are observed by occupational group. Generally manual workers and service and sales workers have higher site-specific cancer mortality rates compared with white-collar workers and agricultural and fishery workers. These inequalities are manifest for almost all preventable cancer sites, especially those cancer sites related to alcohol and smoking such as cancers of the lung, oesophagus and head and neck. Overall, occupational inequalities were less pronounced among women compared with men.

CONCLUSIONS

Important SE inequalities in site-specific cancer mortality were observed by employment and occupational group. Ensuring financial security for the unemployed is a key issue in this regard. Future studies could also take a look at other working regimes, for instance temporary employment or part-time employment and their relation to health.

Evolution of educational inequalities in site-specific cancer mortality among Belgian men between the 1990s and 2000s using a "fundamental cause" perspective

BACKGROUND

According to the "fundamental cause" theory, emerging knowledge on health-enhancing behaviours and technologies results in health disparities. This study aims to assess (trends in) educational inequalities in site-specific cancer mortality in Belgian men in the 1990s and the 2000s using this framework.

METHODS

Data were derived from record linkage between the Belgian censuses of 1991 and 2001 and register data on mortality. The study population comprised all Belgian men aged 50-79 years during follow-up. Both absolute and relative inequality measures have been calculated.

RESULTS

Despite an overall downward trend in cancer mortality, educational differences are observed for the majority of cancer sites in the 2000s. Generally, inequalities are largest for mortality from preventable cancers. Trends over time in inequalities are rather stable compared with the 1990s.

CONCLUSIONS

Educational differences in site-specific cancer mortality persist in the 2000s in Belgium, mainly for cancers related to behavioural change and medical interventions. Policy efforts focussing on behavioural change and healthcare utilization remain crucial in order to tackle these increasing inequalities.

Tobacco control for all ? The Belgian case

European Union Member States are, by now, implementing the European Tobacco Products Directive (TPD) 2014/401. This directive marks a significant milestone in the fight against tobacco use in Europe. This success has been the result of a joint effort by many that include lobbyists, media, health professionals, lawyers and parliamentarians. Most of all it is European citizens who will benefit from TPD. All are mobilized through the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC)2, which gives relevant leverage on policies for signatory countries. It might appear that the battle has been won when we see that legislation has been implemented, the public is informed, research has provided results, smoking-quit lines are available and affordable, non-smoker are protected by public policies and taxation policies are implemented. During most of the past forty years all these measures have contributed to the decline in smoking prevalence in many countries. However, the rate of decline has become slower and hence it is clear that we have still not reached out to all the people suffering from the ravages of tobacco use. Should we therefore be satisfied, let down our guard and be contented with this slow decline in prevalence? What is the reality?

Future healthy life expectancy among older adults in the US: a forecast based on cohort smoking and obesity history

BACKGROUND

In the past three decades, the elderly population in the United States experienced increase in life expectancy (LE) and disability-free life expectancy (LE(ND)), but decrease in life expectancy with disability (LE(D)). Smoking and obesity are two major risk factors that had negative impacts on these trends. While smoking prevalence continues to decline in recent decades, obesity prevalence has been growing and is currently at a high level. This study aims to forecast the healthy life expectancy for older adults aged 55 to 85 in the US from 2011 to 2040, in relation to their smoking and obesity history.

METHODS

First, population-level mortality data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) and individual-level disability data from the US National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) were used to estimate the transition rates between different health states from 1982 to 2010, using a multi-state life table (MSLT) model. Second, the estimated transition rates were fitted and projected up to 2040, using a modified Lee-Carter model that incorporates cohort smoking and obesity history from NHIS.

RESULTS

Mortality and morbidity for both sexes will continue to decline in the next decades. Relative to 2010, men are expected to have 3.2 years gain in LE(ND) and 0.8 years loss in LE(D). For women, there will be 1.8 years gain in LE(ND) and 0.8 years loss in LE(D). By 2040, men and women are expected to spend respectively 80 % and 75 % of their remaining life expectancy between 55 and 85 disability-free.

CONCLUSIONS

Smoking and obesity have independent negative impacts on both the survival and disability of the US older population in the coming decades, and are responsible for the present and future gender disparity in mortality and morbidity. Overall, the US older population is expected to enjoy sustained health improvements and compression of disability, largely due to decline in smoking.

Contribution of Chronic Conditions to the Disability Burden across Smoking Categories in Middle-Aged Adults, Belgium

INTRODUCTION

Smoking is considered the single most important preventable cause of morbidity and mortality worldwide, contributing to increased incidence and severity of disabling conditions. The aim of this study was to assess the contribution of chronic conditions to the disability burden across smoking categories in middle-aged adults in Belgium.

METHODS

Data from 10,224 individuals aged 40 to 60 years who participated in the 1997, 2001, 2004, or 2008 Health Interview Surveys in Belgium were used. Smoking status was defined as never, former (cessation ≥2 years), former (cessation <2 years), occasional light (<20 cigarettes/day), daily light, and daily heavy (≥20 cigarettes/day). To attribute disability to chronic conditions, binomial additive hazards models were fitted separately for each smoking category adjusted for gender, except for former (cessation <2 years) and occasional light smokers due to the small sample size.

RESULTS

An increasing trend in the disability prevalence was observed across smoking categories in men (never = 4.8%, former (cessation ≥2 years) = 5.8%, daily light = 7.8%, daily heavy = 10.7%) and women (never = 7.6%, former (cessation ≥2 years) = 8.0%, daily light = 10.2%, daily heavy = 12.0%). Musculoskeletal conditions showed a substantial contribution to the disability burden in men and women across all smoking categories. Other important contributors were depression and cardiovascular diseases in never smokers; depression, chronic respiratory diseases, and diabetes in former smokers (cessation ≥2 years); chronic respiratory diseases, cancer, and cardiovascular diseases in daily light smokers; cardiovascular diseases and chronic respiratory diseases in men and depression and diabetes in women daily heavy smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

Beyond the well-known effect of smoking on mortality, our findings showed an increasing trend of the disability prevalence and different contributors to the disability burden across smoking categories. This information can be useful from a public health perspective to define strategies to reduce disability in Belgium.

Trajectories of Unhealthy Behaviors in Midlife and Risk of Disability at Older Ages in the Whitehall II Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

Most of the evidence on the association between unhealthy behaviors and disability comes from studies in the elderly, where reverse causation and selection bias may distort associations; thus, studies based on midlife trajectories of health behaviors are needed. We examined the association of trajectories of four health behaviors (physical activity, fruit and vegetable consumption, smoking, alcohol), starting in midlife and over 20 years, with subsequent disability risk in early old age (range = 54-84 years) in the Whitehall II cohort study.

METHODS

Disability was assessed three times over 3 years. A hierarchical disability indicator was constructed; participants were considered disabled if they reported difficulties with mobility and instrumental activities of daily living or with mobility and instrumental and basic activities of daily living. Behavior trajectories were defined using group-based trajectory models. Multivariable generalized estimating equations logistic models were used to examine their independent associations with disability.

RESULTS

Of 6,825 participants, 19.2% reported being disabled at least once. In mutually adjusted models, participants with persistent inactivity or declining physical activity, recent ex- or current smokers, and persistent/recent abstainers or persistent heavy drinkers had a higher disability risk, whereas fruit and vegetable consumption was not associated with disability. Disability risk increased progressively with the number of unhealthy behavior trajectories: the odds ratio of disability for 2-3 unhealthy trajectories was 2.69 (95% confidence interval = 2.26-3.19); these associations remained after adjustment for a wide range of covariates.

CONCLUSIONS

Unhealthy behavior trajectories in midlife are associated with greater disability risk later in life.

Visualising variation in mortality rates across the life course and by sex, USA and comparator states, 1933-2010

BACKGROUND

Previous research showed that younger adult males in the USA have, since the 1950s, died at a faster rate than females of the same age. In this paper, we quantify this difference, and explore possible explanations for the differences at different ages and in different years.

METHODS

Using data from the Human Mortality Database (HMD), the number of additional male deaths per 10 000 female deaths was calculated for each year from 1933 to 2010, and for each year of age from 0 to 60 years, for the USA, and a number of other countries for comparison. The data were explored visually using shaded contour plots.

RESULTS

Gender differences in excess mortality have increased. Coming of age (between the ages of 15 and 25 years of age) is especially perilous for men relative to women now compared with the past in the USA; the visualisations highlight this change as important.

CONCLUSIONS

Sex differences in mortality risks at various ages are not static. While women may today have an advantage when it comes to life expectancy, in the USA, this has greatly increased since the 1930s. Just as young adulthood for women has been made safer through safer antenatal and childbirth practices, changes in public policy can make the social environment safer for men.

Educational differentials in disability vary across and within welfare regimes: a comparison of 26 European countries in 2009

BACKGROUND

Social differentials in disability prevalence exist in all European countries, but their scale varies markedly. To improve understanding of this variation, the article focuses on each end of the social gradient. It compares the extent of the higher disability prevalence in low social groups (referred to as disability disadvantage) and of the lower prevalence in high social groups (disability advantage); country-specific advantages/disadvantages are discussed regarding the possible influence of welfare regimes.

METHODS

Cross-sectional disability prevalence is measured by longstanding health-related activity limitation (AL) in the 2009 European Statistics on Income and Living Conditions (EU-SILC) across 26 countries classified into four welfare regime groups. Logistic models adjusted by country, age and sex (in all 30-79 years and in three age-bands) measured the country-specific ORs across education, representing the AL-disadvantage of low-educated and AL-advantage of high-educated groups relative to middle-educated groups.

RESULTS

The relative AL-disadvantage of the low-educated groups was small in Sweden (eg, 1.2 (1.0-1.4)), Finland, Romania, Bulgaria and Spain (youngest age-band), but was large in the Czech Republic (eg, 1.9 (1.7-2.2)), Denmark, Belgium, Italy and Hungary. The high-educated groups had a small relative AL-advantage in Denmark (eg, 0.9 (0.8-1.1)), but a large AL-advantage in Lithuania (eg, 0.5 (0.4-0.6)), half of the Baltic and Eastern European countries, Norway and Germany (youngest age-band). There were notable differences within welfare regime groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The country-specific disability advantages/disadvantages across educational groups identified here could help to identify determining factors and the efficiency of national policies implemented to tackle social differentials in health.

Contribution of chronic diseases to the mild and severe disability burden in Belgium

BACKGROUND

Population aging accompanied by an increased longevity with disability has raised international concern, especially due to its costs to the health care systems. Chronic diseases are the main causes of physical disability and their simultaneous occurrence in the population can impact the disablement process, resulting in different severity levels. In this study, the contribution of chronic diseases to both mild and severe disability burden in Belgium was investigated.

METHODS

Data on 21 chronic diseases and disability from 35,799 individuals aged 15 years or older who participated in the 1997, 2001, 2004, or 2008 Belgian Health Interview Surveys were analysed. Mild and severe disability were defined based on questions related to six activities of daily living and/or mobility limitations. To attribute disability by severity level to selected chronic diseases, multiple additive hazard models were fitted to each disability outcome, separately for men and women.

RESULTS

A stable prevalence of mild (5 %) and severe (2-3 %) disability was observed for the Belgian population aged 15 years or older between 1997 and 2008. Arthritis was the most important contributor in women with mild and severe disability. In men, low back pain and chronic respiratory diseases contributed most to the mild and severe disability burden, respectively. The contribution also differed by age: for mild disability, depression and chronic respiratory diseases were important contributors among young individuals, while heart attack had a large contribution for older individuals. For severe disability, neurological diseases and stroke presented a large contribution in young and elderly individuals, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate that the assessment of the contribution of chronic diseases on disability is more informative if different levels of disability are taken into consideration. The identification of diseases which are related to different levels of disability - mild and severe - can assist policymakers in the definition and prioritisation of strategies to tackle disability, involving prevention, rehabilitation programs, support services, and training for disabled individuals.