Spatial and temporal variation in malaria transmission in a low endemicity area in northern Tanzania

Geospatial based model for malaria risk prediction in Kilombero valley, South-eastern, Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Malaria continues to pose a major public health challenge in tropical regions. Despite significant efforts to control malaria in Tanzania, there are still residual transmission cases. Unfortunately, little is known about where these residual malaria transmission cases occur and how they spread. In Tanzania for example, the transmission is heterogeneously distributed. In order to effectively control and prevent the spread of malaria, it is essential to understand the spatial distribution and transmission patterns of the disease. This study seeks to predict areas that are at high risk of malaria transmission so that intervention measures can be developed to accelerate malaria elimination efforts.

METHODS

This study employs a geospatial based model to predict and map out malaria risk area in Kilombero Valley. Environmental factors related to malaria transmission were considered and assigned valuable weights in the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), an online system using a pairwise comparison technique. The malaria hazard map was generated by a weighted overlay of the altitude, slope, curvature, aspect, rainfall distribution, and distance to streams in Geographic Information Systems (GIS). Finally, the risk map was created by overlaying components of malaria risk including hazards, elements at risk, and vulnerability.

RESULTS

The study demonstrates that the majority of the study area falls under moderate risk level (61%), followed by the low risk level (31%), while the high malaria risk area covers a small area, which occupies only 8% of the total area.

CONCLUSION

The findings of this study are crucial for developing spatially targeted interventions against malaria transmission in residual transmission settings. Predicted areas prone to malaria risk provide information that will inform decision-makers and policymakers for proper planning, monitoring, and deployment of interventions.

Altitude, not potential larval habitat availability, explains pronounced variation in Plasmodium falciparum infection prevalence in the western Kenya highlands

Progress in malaria control has stalled over the recent years. Knowledge on main drivers of transmission explaining small-scale variation in prevalence can inform targeted control measures. We collected finger-prick blood samples from 3061 individuals irrespective of clinical symptoms in 20 clusters in Busia in western Kenya and screened for Plasmodium falciparum parasites using qPCR and microscopy. Clusters spanned an altitude range of 207 meters (1077-1284 m). We mapped potential mosquito larval habitats and determined their number within 250 m of a household and distances to households using ArcMap. Across all clusters, P. falciparum parasites were detected in 49.8% (1524/3061) of individuals by qPCR and 19.5% (596/3061) by microscopy. Across the clusters, prevalence ranged from 26% to 70% by qPCR. Three to 34 larval habitats per cluster and 0-17 habitats within a 250m radius around households were observed. Using a generalized linear mixed effect model (GLMM), a 5% decrease in the odds of getting infected per each 10m increase in altitude was observed, while the number of larval habitats and their proximity to households were not statistically significant predictors for prevalence. Kitchen located indoors, open eaves, a lower level of education of the household head, older age, and being male were significantly associated with higher prevalence. Pronounced variation in prevalence at small scales was observed and needs to be taken into account for malaria surveillance and control. Potential larval habitat frequency had no direct impact on prevalence.

IgG antibody responses to Anopheles gambiae gSG6-P1 salivary peptide are induced in human populations exposed to secondary malaria vectors in forest areas in Cameroon

Human IgG antibody response to Anopheles gambiae gSG6-P1 salivary peptide was reported to be a pertinent indicator for assessing human exposure to mosquito bites and evaluating the risk of malaria transmission as well as the effectiveness of vector control strategies. However, the applicability of this marker to measure malaria transmission risk where human populations are mostly bitten by secondary vectors in Africa has not yet been evaluated. In this study, we aimed to investigate whether anti-gSG6-P1 antibodies response could be induced in humans living in forest areas in Cameroon where An. gambiae s.l is not predominant. In October 2019 at the pick of the rainy season, blood samples were collected from people living in the Nyabessang in the forest area in the South region of Cameroon. Malaria infection was determined using thick blood smear microscopy and Rapid Diagnostic Test. The level of IgG Anti-gSG6-P1 response as a biomarker of human exposure to Anopheles bite, was assessed using enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Mosquitoes were collected using the human landing catches to assess Anopheles density and for the identification of Anopheles species present in that area. IgG antibody response to the gSG6-P1 salivary peptide was detected in inhabitants of Nyabessang with high inter-individual heterogeneity. No significant variation in the level of this immune response was observed according to age and gender. The concentration of gSG6-P1 antibodies was significantly correlated with the malaria infection status and, Plasmodium falciparum-infected individuals presented a significantly higher level of IgG response than uninfected individuals (p = 0.0087). No significant difference was observed according to the use of insecticide treated nets. Out of the 1,442 Anopheles mosquitoes species collected, 849 (58.9%) were identified as An. paludis, 489 (33.91%) as An. moucheti, 28 (4.44%) as An. nili, 22 (2.08%) as An. gambiae s.l and 10 (0.69%) as An. marshallii. Our findings show that IgG response to An. gambiae gSG6-P1 peptide could be detected in humans exposed predominantly to An. moucheti and An. paludis bites. Taken together, the data revealed the potential of the Anti-gSG6-P1 IgG antibody response to serve as a universal marker to assess human exposure to any Anopheles species.

Clinical manifestations and outcomes of severe malaria in adult patients admitted to a tertiary hospital in the Gambia

BACKGROUND

Malaria is a major public health concern in The Gambia. There is limited data on the clinical manifestation and outcome of severe malaria in adult patients in The Gambia. The study therefore assessed the clinical manifestations and outcome of severe malaria in adult patients admitted at the Edward Francis Small Teaching Hospital.

METHODS

The study retrospectively reviewed the records of all malaria patients admitted from 18th October 2020 to 2nd February 2022. Demographic data, clinical features, investigations, treatment, and outcomes were recorded.

RESULTS

A total of 131 confirmed malaria patients were recruited into the study. The median age was 21 yrs, range (15-90) and most of them were within the youth age group (15-24yrs) 85 (64.9%). The majority of the patients were also male 88 (67.2%) with a male to female ratio of 2:1. The most common symptom at presentation was fever 119 (90.8%) and the most common sign was pallor 48 (36.6%). Seventy-six patients (58.1%) and 55 (41.9%) patients met the criteria for severe malaria and uncomplicated malaria diagnosis, respectively. The most common clinical feature amongst patients with severe malaria were impaired consciousness 34 (44.7%), severe anaemia 26 (34.2%) and acute kidney injury 20 (26.3%). Patients with severe malaria were younger with mean age of 22.9 vs. 29 yrs (p = 0.004), more likely to be referred from a lower-level health facility 62 (81.6%) vs. 34 (61.8%) (p = 0.012), to have a longer duration of admission (p = 0.024) and to die 13 (17.1%) vs. 0 (0%) (p = 0.001) as compared to patients with uncomplicated malaria. The total mortality was 13 (9.9%) and all the patients who died had severe malaria. Mortality was higher in patients with impaired consciousness 9 (26.5%) and there was a significant relationship between death and impaired consciousness 9 (69.3%) vs. 25 (21.4%) p = 0.001.

CONCLUSION

Severe malaria still affects young adults in an endemic area with significant mortality. This suggests the need for targeted malaria prevention, surveillance, case management and control strategies in this population group in The Gambia to help reduce morbidity and mortality of malaria.

Adult Anopheles Mosquito Distribution at a Low and High Malaria Transmission Site in Tanzania

Malaria parasites are only transmitted by female mosquitoes of the genus Anopheles; hence, the disease's distribution is linked to that of the vector mosquitoes. As such, the goal of this study was to find out the spatial and temporal distribution of Anopheles mosquito adults in the research sites. This was a repeated cross-sectional ecological study that took place in Morogoro and Dodoma, Tanzania. Vacuum aspiration was used to collect mosquitoes both outside and inside human dwellings. All mosquito-related data was collected and entered into appropriate data collection forms. Female mosquitoes were recognized morphologically using Gillies and Coetzee morphological criteria, followed by PCR. In total, about 2742 Anopheles mosquitoes with an average collection of 18.21 ± 1.12 per day were collected outside human houses of which 1717 (10.51 ± 1.17) and 1025 (8.42 ± 1.41) were collected from Morogoro and Dodoma, respectively. Of the captured mosquitoes, 89.0%, 10.0%, and 1.0% were recognized as Anopheles arabiensis, Anopheles gambiae s.s., and Anopheles quadrianulatus, respectively. The distribution varied significantly with seasons, whereby 302 (4.72 ± 1.04) and 2440 (12.96 ± 1.52) mosquitoes were captured in the cold-dry and warm-wet season, respectively (p < 0.0001). Of the captured mosquitoes, 42.33%, 16.33%, 14.96%, and 4.27 were found on the ceiling, stored junks, verandas, and barks/tree, respectively. In malaria-endemic countries, vector control forms an important component of the malaria control efforts. This study found significant variation of Anopheles mosquito abundance in time and space with Anopheles arabiensis being the most predominant malaria vector. This signifies the need to introduce mosquito control methods that will target the less anthropophilic Anopheles arabiensis or the immature aquatic stages. The study further found that underbeds, store room/piled bags, and undisturbed curtains were the most preferred resting places by mosquitoes signifying to be the most effective strategic sites for spraying insecticides during the implementation of indoor residual spraying (IRS).

Predictive markers of transmission in areas with different malaria endemicity in north-eastern Tanzania based on seroprevalence of antibodies against Plasmodium falciparum

OBJECTIVE

A community-based cross-sectional study was done to assess Plasmodium falciparum exposure in areas with different malaria endemicity in north-eastern Tanzania using serological markers; PfAMA-1 and PfMSP-1₁₉.

RESULTS

Bondo had a higher seroprevalence 36.6% (188) for PfAMA-1 as compared to Hai 13.8% (33), χ² = 34.66, p < 0.01. Likewise, Bondo had a higher seroprevalence 201(36.6%) for PfMSP-1 as compared to Hai 41 (17.2%), χ² = 29.62, p < 0.01. Anti-PfAMA-1 titters were higher in malaria positive individuals (n = 47) than in malaria negative individuals (n = 741) (p = 0.07). Anti-PfMSP-1 antibody concentrations were significantly higher in malaria-positive individuals (n = 47) than in malaria-negative individuals (n = 741) (p = 0.003). Antibody response against PfAMA-1 was significantly different between the three age groups; < 5 years, 5 to 15 years and > 15 years in both sites of Bondo and Hai. Likewise, antibody response against PfMSP-1₁₉ was significantly different between the three age groups in the two sites (p < 0.001). We also found significant differences in the anti-PfAMA-1and anti-PfMSP-1₁₉ antibody concentrations among the three age groups in the two sites (p = 0.004 and 0.005) respectively. Immunological indicators of P. falciparum exposure have proven to be useful in explaining long-term changes in the transmission dynamics, especially in low transmission settings.

Airline transportation and arrival time of international disease spread: A case study of Covid-19

In this era of globalization, airline transportation has greatly increased international trade and travel within the World Airport Network (WAN). Unfortunately, this convenience has expanded the scope of infectious disease spread from a local to a worldwide occurrence. Thus, scholars have proposed several methods to measure the distances between airports and define the relationship between the distances and arrival times of infectious diseases in various countries. However, such studies suffer from the following limitations. (1) Only traditional statistical methods or graphical representations were utilized to show that the effective distance performed better than the geographical distance technique. Researchers seldom use the survival model to quantify the actual differences among arrival times via various distance methods. (2) Although scholars have found that most diseases tend to spread via the random walk rather than the shortest path method, this hypothesis may no longer be true because the network has been severally altered due to recent COVID-related travel reductions. Therefore, we used 2017 IATA (International Air Transport Association) to establish an airline network via various chosen path strategies (random walk and shortest path). Then, we employed these two networks to quantify each model's predictive performance in order to estimate the importation probability function of COVID-19 into various countries. The effective distance model was found to more accurately predict arrival dates of COVID-19 than the geographical distance model. However, if pre-Covid airline data is included, the path of disease spread might not follow the random walk theory due to recent flight suspensions and travel restrictions during the epidemic. Lastly, when testing effective distance, the inverse distance survival model and the Cox model yielded very similar importation risk estimates. The results can help authorities design more effective international epidemic prevention and control strategies.

Anopheles arabiensis hotspots along intermittent rivers drive malaria dynamics in semi-arid areas of Central Ethiopia

Background

Understanding malaria vector’s population dynamics and their spatial distribution is important to define when and where the largest infection risks occur and implement appropriate control strategies. In this study, the seasonal spatio-temporal dynamics of the malaria vector population and transmission intensity along intermittent rivers in a semi-arid area of central Ethiopia were investigated.

Methods

Mosquitoes were collected monthly from five clusters, 2 close to a river and 3 away from a river, using pyrethrum spray catches from November 2014 to July 2016. Mosquito abundance was analysed by the mixed Poisson regression model. The human blood index and sporozoite rate was compared between seasons by a logistic regression model.

Results

A total of 2784 adult female Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) were collected during the data collection period. All tested mosquitoes (n = 696) were identified as Anopheles arabiensis by polymerase chain reaction. The average daily household count was significantly higher (P = 0.037) in the clusters close to the river at 5.35 (95% CI 2.41–11.85) compared to the clusters away from the river at 0.033 (95% CI 0.02–0.05). Comparing the effect of vicinity of the river by season, a significant effect of closeness to the river was found during the dry season (P = 0.027) and transition from dry to wet season (P = 0.032). Overall, An. arabiensis had higher bovine blood index (62.8%) as compared to human blood index (23.8%), ovine blood index (9.2%) and canine blood index (0.1%). The overall sporozoite rate was 3.9% and 0% for clusters close to and away from the river, respectively. The overall Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax entomologic inoculation rates for An. arabiensis in clusters close to the river were 0.8 and 2.2 infective bites per person/year, respectively.

Conclusion

Mosquito abundance and malaria transmission intensity in clusters close to the river were higher which could be attributed to the riverine breeding sites. Thus, vector control interventions including targeted larval source management should be implemented to reduce the risk of malaria infection in the area.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12936-021-03697-z.

Sero-epidemiological evaluation of malaria transmission in The Gambia before and after mass drug administration

BACKGROUND

As The Gambia aims to achieve malaria elimination by 2030, serological assays are a useful surveillance tool to monitor trends in malaria incidence and evaluate community-based interventions.

METHODS

Within a mass drug administration (MDA) study in The Gambia, where reduced malaria infection and clinical disease were observed after the intervention, a serological sub-study was conducted in four study villages. Spatio-temporal variation in transmission was measured with a panel of recombinant Pf antigens on a multiplexed bead-based assay. Village-level antibody levels were quantified as under-15 sero-prevalence, sero-conversion rates, and age-adjusted antibody acquisition rates. Antibody levels prior to MDA were assessed for association with persistent malaria infection after community chemoprophylaxis.

RESULTS

Seasonal changes in antibodies to Etramp5.Ag1 were observed in children under 15 years in two transmission settings-the West Coast and Upper River Regions (4.32% and 31.30% Pf prevalence, respectively). At the end of the malaria season, short-lived antibody responses to Etramp5.Ag1, GEXP18, HSP40.Ag1, EBA175 RIII-V, and Rh2.2030 were lower amongst 1-15 year olds in the West Coast compared to the Upper River, reflecting known differences in transmission. Prior to MDA, individuals in the top 50th percentile of antibody levels had two-fold higher odds of clinical malaria during the transmission season, consistent with previous findings from the Malaria Transmission Dynamics Study, where individuals infected before the implementation of MDA had two-fold higher odds of re-infection post-MDA.

CONCLUSIONS

Serological markers can serve dual functions as indicators of malaria exposure and incidence. By monitoring age-specific sero-prevalence, the magnitude of age-stratified antibody levels, or identifying groups of individuals with above-average antibody responses, these antigens have the potential to complement conventional malaria surveillance tools. Further studies, particularly cluster randomised trials, can help establish standardised serological protocols to reliably measure transmission across endemic settings.

Lack of Consistent Malaria Incidence Hotspots in a Highland Kenyan Area During a 10-Year Period of Very Low and Unstable Transmission

The use of spatial data in malaria elimination strategies is important to understand whether targeted interventions against malaria can be used, particularly in areas with limited resources. We previously documented consistent areas of increased malaria incidence in the epidemic-prone area of Kipsamoite in highland Kenya from 2001 to 2004. In this area and a neighboring subcounty (Kapsisiywa), malaria incidence decreased substantially in 2005, going from peak incidence of 31.7 per 1,000 persons in June 2004 to peak incidence of 7.4 per 1,000 persons in May 2005. Subsequently, the use of indoor residual spraying and artemisinin combination therapy malaria treatment led to a possible interruption of malaria transmission for a 13-month period from 2007 to 2008, after which the incidence returned to very low levels until an epidemic in April-July 2013. In the present study, we used novel kernel density estimation methods to determine whether areas of increased malaria incidence were consistent in six periods of peak incidence from 2003 to 2013, and to assess patterns of incidence in the period before versus. after the period of possible interruption. Areas of highest incidence differed during peak malaria transmission periods over the years 2003-2013, and differed before and after the potential malaria interruption. In this epidemic-prone region with very low malaria transmission, consistent malaria "hotspots" identified in a time of higher transmission are no longer present. Ongoing assessment of spatial malaria epidemiology to identify and target current areas of elevated malaria risk may be important in campaigns to control or eliminate malaria in epidemic-prone areas.

Malaria Risk Map Using Spatial Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis along Yunnan Border During the Pre-elimination Period

In moving toward malaria elimination, finer scale malaria risk maps are required to identify hotspots for implementing surveillance–response activities, allocating resources, and preparing health facilities based on the needs and necessities at each specific area. This study aimed to demonstrate the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) in conjunction with geographic information systems (GISs) to create a spatial model and risk maps by integrating satellite remote-sensing and malaria surveillance data from 18 counties of Yunnan Province along the China–Myanmar border. The MCDA composite and annual models and risk maps were created from the consensus among the experts who have been working and know situations in the study areas. The experts identified and provided relative factor weights for nine socioeconomic and disease ecology factors as a weighted linear combination model of the following: ([Forest coverage × 0.041] + [Cropland × 0.086] + [Water body × 0.175] + [Elevation × 0.297] + [Human population density × 0.043] + [Imported case × 0.258] + [Distance to road × 0.030] + [Distance to health facility × 0.033] + [Urbanization × 0.036]). The expert-based model had a good prediction capacity with a high area under curve. The study has demonstrated the novel integrated use of spatial MCDA which combines multiple environmental factors in estimating disease risk by using decision rules derived from existing knowledge or hypothesized understanding of the risk factors via diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators from the experts. The model and fine MCDA risk map developed in this study could assist in focusing the elimination efforts in the specifically identified locations with high risks.

The epidemiology of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax in East Sepik Province, Papua New Guinea, pre- and post-implementation of national malaria control efforts

Background

In the past decade, national malaria control efforts in Papua New Guinea (PNG) have received renewed support, facilitating nationwide distribution of free long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), as well as improvements in access to parasite-confirmed diagnosis and effective artemisinin-combination therapy in 2011–2012.

Methods

To study the effects of these intensified control efforts on the epidemiology and transmission of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax infections and investigate risk factors at the individual and household level, two cross-sectional surveys were conducted in the East Sepik Province of PNG; one in 2005, before the scale-up of national campaigns and one in late 2012-early 2013, after 2 rounds of LLIN distribution (2008 and 2011–2012). Differences between studies were investigated using Chi square (χ²), Fischer’s exact tests and Student’s t-test. Multivariable logistic regression models were built to investigate factors associated with infection at the individual and household level.

Results

The prevalence of P. falciparum and P. vivax in surveyed communities decreased from 55% (2005) to 9% (2013) and 36% to 6%, respectively. The mean multiplicity of infection (MOI) decreased from 1.8 to 1.6 for P. falciparum (p = 0.08) and from 2.2 to 1.4 for P. vivax (p < 0.001). Alongside these reductions, a shift towards a more uniform distribution of infections and illness across age groups was observed but there was greater heterogeneity across the study area and within the study villages. Microscopy positive infections and clinical cases in the household were associated with high rate infection households (> 50% of household members with Plasmodium infection).

Conclusion

After the scale-up of malaria control interventions in PNG between 2008 and 2012, there was a substantial reduction in P. falciparum and P. vivax infection rates in the studies villages in East Sepik Province. Understanding the extent of local heterogeneity in malaria transmission and the driving factors is critical to identify and implement targeted control strategies to ensure the ongoing success of malaria control in PNG and inform the development of tools required to achieve elimination. In household-based interventions, diagnostics with a sensitivity similar to (expert) microscopy could be used to identify and target high rate households.

Anopheline Mosquito Species Composition, Kdr Mutation Frequency, and Parasite Infectivity Status in Northern Tanzania

The scaling-up of malaria control interventions in northern Tanzania has resulted in a decline in malaria prevalence and vector species composition. Despite this achievement, residual malaria transmission remains a concern in the area. The main aim of this study was to investigate malaria vector species composition, parasite infectivity rates, and the presence of insecticide knockdown resistance (kdr) mutations in three sites that have experienced a significant decline in malaria in northern Tanzania. Adult mosquitoes were sampled using light traps in houses and hand-aspirators in cowsheds, whereas the standard dipping method was used for sampling mosquito larvae. Adult mosquitoes identified as Anopheles gambiae s.l. and An. funestus s.l. and larval stages III and IV of An. gambiae s.l. were stored in absolute ethanol for further laboratory molecular identification. The identified species in the An. gambiae complex were An. gambiae s.s., An. merus, An. quadriannulatus, and An. arabiensis, whereas the An. funestus group comprised An. funestus s.s., An. rivulorum, and An. leesoni. For An. gambiae s.s. analyzed from Zeneth, 47.6% were kdr-East homozygous susceptible, 35.7% kdr-East heterozygous resistant, 9.6% kdr-East homozygous resistant, and 7.1% undefined, whereas specimens from Kwakibuyu were 45.5% kdr-East homozygous susceptible, 32.7% kdr-East heterozygous resistant, 16.3% kdr-East homozygous resistant, and 5.5% undefined. There were no kdr-West alleles identified from any specimen. The overall malaria parasite infectivity rate was 0.75%. No infections were found in Moshi. The findings indicate that populations of the major malaria vector mosquitoes are still present in the study area, with An. funestus taking a lead in malaria transmission.

Health Beliefs and Patient Perspectives of Febrile Illness in Kilombero, Tanzania

This qualitative study assessed the knowledge and beliefs surrounding fever syndrome among adult febrile patients seeking health care in Kilombero, Tanzania. From June 11 to July 13, 2014, 10% of all adult (≥ 15 years) febrile patients enrolled in the larger syndromic study, who presented with an axillary temperature ≥ 37.5°C and symptom onset ≤ 5 days prior, were randomly selected to participate in an in-depth physician-patient interview, informed by Health Belief Model constructs. Interviews were audio recorded, translated, and transcribed. Transcripts were coded using NVivo Version 11.1, and the thematic content was analyzed by two separate researchers. Blood and nasopharyngeal/oralpharyngeal specimens were collected and analyzed using both acute febrile illness and respiratory TaqMan Array Cards for multipathogen detection of 56 potential causative agents. A total of 18 participants provided 188 discrete comments. When asked to speculate the causative agent of febrile illness, 33.3% cited malaria and the other 66.6% offered nonbiomedical responses, such as "mosquitoes" and "weather." Major themes emerging related to severity and susceptibility to health hazards included lack of bed net use, misconceptions about bed nets, and mosquito infestation. Certain barriers to treatment were cited, including dependence on traditional healers, high cost of drugs, and poor dispensary services. Overall, we demonstrate low concurrence in speculations of fever etiology according to patients, clinicians, and laboratory testing. Our findings contribute to the important, yet limited, base of knowledge surrounding patient risk perceptions of febrile illness and underscore the potential utility of community-based participatory research to inform disease control programs.

Identifying Immune Correlates of Protection Against Plasmodium falciparum Through a Novel Approach to Account for Heterogeneity in Malaria Exposure

Background

A main criterion to identify malaria vaccine candidates is the proof that acquired immunity against them is associated with protection from disease. The age of the studied individuals, heterogeneous malaria exposure, and assumption of the maintenance of a baseline immune response can confound these associations.

Methods

Immunoglobulin G/immunoglobulin M (IgG/ IgM) levels were measured by Luminex® in Mozambican children monitored for clinical malaria from birth until 3 years of age, together with functional antibodies. Studied candidates were pre-erythrocytic and erythrocytic antigens, including EBAs/PfRhs, MSPs, DBLs, and novel antigens merely or not previously studied in malaria-exposed populations. Cox regression models were estimated at 9 and 24 months of age, accounting for heterogeneous malaria exposure or limiting follow-up according to the antibody's decay.

Results

Associations of antibody responses with higher clinical malaria risk were avoided when accounting for heterogeneous malaria exposure or when limiting the follow-up time in the analyses. Associations with reduced risk of clinical malaria were found only at 24 months old, but not younger children, for IgG breadth and levels of IgG targeting EBA140III-V, CyRPA, DBL5ε and DBL3x, together with C1q-fixation activity by antibodies targeting MSP119.

Conclusions

Malaria protection correlates were identified, only in children aged 24 months old when accounting for heterogeneous malaria exposure. These results highlight the relevance of considering age and malaria exposure, as well as the importance of not assuming the maintenance of a baseline immune response throughout the follow-up. Results may be misleading if these factors are not considered.

Taking Sharper Pictures of Malaria with CAMERAs: Combined Antibodies to Measure Exposure Recency Assays

Antibodies directed against malaria parasites are easy and inexpensive to measure but remain an underused surveillance tool because of a lack of consensus on what to measure and how to interpret results. High-throughput screening of antibodies from well-characterized cohorts offers a means to substantially improve existing assays by rationally choosing the most informative sets of responses and analytical methods. Recent data suggest that high-resolution information on malaria exposure can be obtained from a small number of samples by measuring a handful of properly chosen antibody responses. In this review, we discuss how standardized multi-antibody assays can be developed and efficiently integrated into existing surveillance activities, with potential to greatly augment the breadth and quality of information available to direct and monitor malaria control and elimination efforts.

Automatic Detection of Open and Vegetated Water Bodies Using Sentinel 1 to Map African Malaria Vector Mosquito Breeding Habitats

Providing timely and accurate maps of surface water is valuable for mapping malaria risk and targeting disease control interventions. Radar satellite remote sensing has the potential to provide this information but current approaches are not suitable for mapping African malarial mosquito aquatic habitats that tend to be highly dynamic, often with emergent vegetation. We present a novel approach for mapping both open and vegetated water bodies using serial Sentinel-1 imagery for Western Zambia. This region is dominated by the seasonally inundated Upper Zambezi floodplain that suffers from a number of public health challenges. The approach uses open source segmentation and machine learning (extra trees classifier), applied to training data that are automatically derived using freely available ancillary data. Refinement is implemented through a consensus approach and Otsu thresholding to eliminate false positives due to dry flat sandy areas. The results indicate a high degree of accuracy (mean overall accuracy 92% st dev 3.6) providing a tractable solution for operationally mapping water bodies in similar large river floodplain unforested environments. For the period studied, 70% of the total water extent mapped was attributed to vegetated water, highlighting the importance of mapping both open and vegetated water bodies for surface water mapping.

Improving socioeconomic status may reduce the burden of malaria in sub Saharan Africa: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

A clear understanding of the effects of housing structure, education, occupation, income, and wealth on malaria can help to better design socioeconomic interventions to control the disease. This literature review summarizes the relationship of housing structure, educational level, occupation, income, and wealth with the epidemiology of malaria in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).

Methods

A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted following the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses guidelines. The protocol for this study is registered in PROSPERO (ID=CRD42017056070), an international database of prospectively registered systematic reviews. On January 16, 2016, available literature was searched in PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, and Cochrane Library. All but case studies, which reported prevalence or incidence of Plasmodium infection stratified by socioeconomic status among individuals living in SSA, were included without any limits. Odds Ratio (OR) and Relative Risk (RR), together with 95% CI and p-values were used as effect measures. Heterogeneity was assessed using chi-square, Moran’s I², and tau² tests. Fixed (I²<30%), random (I²≥30%) or log-linear dose-response model was used to estimate the summary OR or RR.

Results

After removing duplicates and screening of titles, abstracts, and full text, 84 articles were found eligible for systematic review, and 75 of them were included in the meta-analyses. Fifty-seven studies were cross-sectional, 12 were prospective cohort, 10 were case-control, and five were randomized control trials. The odds of Plasmodium infection increased among individuals who were living in poor quality houses (OR 2.13, 95% CI 1.56–3.23, I² = 27.7), were uneducated (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.19–1.54, I² = 72.4.0%), and were farmers by occupation (OR 1.48, 95% CI 1.11–1.85, I² = 0.0%) [p<0.01 for all]. The odds of Plasmodium infection also increased with a decrease in the income (OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.01–1.03, tau²<0.001), and wealth index of individuals (OR 1.25, 95% CI 1.18–1.35, tau² = 0.028) [p<0.001 for both]. Longitudinal studies also showed an increased risk of Plasmodium infection among individuals who were living in poor quality houses (RR 1.86, 95% CI 1.47–2.25, I² = 0.0%), were uneducated (OR 1.27, 1.03–1.50, I² = 0.0%), and were farmers (OR 1.36, 1.18–1.58) [p<0.01 for all].

Conclusions

Lack of education, low income, low wealth, living in poorly constructed houses, and having an occupation in farming may increase risk of Plasmodium infection among people in SSA. Public policy measures that can reduce inequity in health coverage, as well as improve economic and educational opportunities for the poor, will help in reducing the burden of malaria in SSA.

Nets versus spraying: A spatial modelling approach reveals indoor residual spraying targets Anopheles mosquito habitats better than mosquito nets in Tanzania

The global implementation of malaria interventions has averted hundreds of millions of clinical malaria cases in the last decade. This study assesses predicted Anopheles mosquito distributions across the United Republic of Tanzania before large-scale insecticide-treated net (ITN) rollouts and indoor residual spraying (IRS) initiatives to determine whether mosquito net usage by children under the age of five and IRS are targeted to areas where historical evidence indicates mosquitoes thrive. Demographic and Health Surveys data from 2011–2012 and 2015–2016 include detailed measurements of mosquito net and IRS use across Tanzania. Anopheline data are far less intensively collected, but we constructed a Maxent-built baseline mosquito habitat suitability (MHS) map (AUC = 0.872) with Tanzanian Anopheles occurrence records from 1999–2003. This MHS model was tested against independently-observed georeferenced Plasmodium falciparum cases from the Malaria Atlas Project, with ~87% of cases from 1999–2003 (n = 107) and ~84% of cases from 1985–2012 (n = 919) occurring in areas of high predicted suitability for mosquitoes. We compared the validated MHS with subsequent malaria interventions using mixed effects logistic regression. Specifically, we assessed whether Anopheles habitat suitability related to the frequency that ≥1 child in a household reportedly slept under a mosquito net when that intervention later became widely available, and whether IRS was reportedly applied to dwellings over a one-year period. There was no evidence that mosquito net use the night before the survey related to MHS from 2011–2012 and marginally significant evidence (p<0.05) from 2015–2016 (β = 1.466, 95% C.I. = 0.848–2.103, marginal R² = 0.020, respectively). However, the likelihood of IRS treatments rose relatively strongly in the 12 months prior to both surveys (β = 13.466, 95% C.I. = 10.488–16.456, marginal R² = 0.144, and β = 6.817, 95% C.I. = 5.439–8.303, marginal R² = 0.136, respectively). IRS treatments have therefore been targeted more effectively than mosquito nets toward areas where anopheline habitat suitability was previously found to be high.

Maternal mortality in Ifakara Health and Demographic Surveillance System: Spatial patterns, trends and risk factors, 2006 - 2010

Introduction

Maternal mortality was the subject of the United Nations’ fifth Millennium Development Goal which was to reduce the maternal mortality ratio by three quarters from 1990 to 2015. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), target 3.1 requires participating countries to reduce their maternal mortality ratio to less than 70 deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030. Although much research has been conducted, knowing the spatial patterns and risk factors associated with maternal mortality in developing countries helps target scarce resources and intervention programmes to high risk areas for the greatest impact.

Methods

Data were analysed from a longitudinal open cohort of women aged 15 to 49 years, enrolled from 2006 to 2010. An inverse distance weighted method of interpolation was used to assess spatial patterns of maternal mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to identify risk factors associated with maternal mortality.

Results

The overall maternal mortality rate for the 36 792 study participants for the five years was 0.79 per 1000 person years. The trend declined from 90.42 in 2006 to 57.42 in 2010. Marked geographical differences were observed in maternal mortality patterns. The main causes of maternal death were eclampsia (23%), haemorrhage (22%) and abortion-related complications (10%). There was a reduced risk of 82% (HR = 0.18, 95% CI:0.05–0.74) and 78% (HR = 0.22, 95% CI:0.05–0.92) for women aged 20–29 and 30–39 years, respectively, compared with those younger than 20 years. While being married had a protective effect of 94% (HR = 0.06, 95% CI: 0.01–0.51) compared with being single, women who were widowed had an increased risk of maternal death of 913% (HR = 9.13, 95% CI: 1.02–81.94). Women who belong to poorer, poor and least poor socioeconomic quintile had 84%, 71% and 72% reduction in risk of maternal mortality respectively compared to those in the poorest category (HR = 0.16, 95% CI: 0.06–0.42; HR = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.12–0.69; HR = 0.28, 95% CI: 0.10–0.80).

Conclusion

Maternal mortality has declined in rural southern Tanzania since 2006, with geographical differences in patterns of death. Eclampsia, haemorrhage and abortion-related complications are the three leading causes of maternal death in the region, with risk factors being younger than 20 years, being single or widowed, and having a low socioeconomic status.

Evaluating seroprevalence to circumsporozoite protein to estimate exposure to three species of Plasmodium in the Brazilian Amazon

Background

Brazil has seen a great decline in malaria and the country is moving towards elimination. However, for eventual elimination, the control program needs efficient tools in order to monitor malaria exposure and transmission. In this study, we aimed to evaluate whether seroprevalence to the circumsporozoite protein (CSP) is a good tool for monitoring the exposure to and/or evaluating the burden and distribution of Plasmodium species in the Brazilian Amazon.

Methods

Cross-sectional surveys were conducted in a rural area of Porto Velho, Rondônia state. Parasite infection was detected by microscopy and polymerase chain reaction. Antibodies to the sporozoite CSP repeats of Plasmodium vivax, P. falciparum, and P. malariae (PvCS, PfCS, and PmCS) were detected using the enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay technique. Human leukocyte antigen (HLA)-DRB1 and DQB1 genes were typed using Luminex® xMAP® technology.

Results

The prevalence of immunoglobulin G against P. vivax CSP peptide (62%) was higher than P. falciparum (49%) and P. malariae (46%) CSP peptide. Most of the studied individuals had antibodies to at least one of the three peptides (72%), 34% had antibodies to all three peptides and 28% were non-responders. Although the majority of the population was not infected at the time of the survey, 74.3% of parasite-negative individuals had antibodies to at least one of the CSPs. Importantly, among individuals carrying the haplotypes DRB1*04~DQB1*03, there was a significantly higher frequency of PfCS responders, and DRB1*16~DQB1*03 haplotype for PvCS and PfCS responders. In contrast, HLA-DRB1*01 and HLA-DQB1*05 allelic groups were associated with a lack of antibodies to P. vivax and P. falciparum CSP repeats, and the haplotype DRB1*01~DQB1*05 was also associated with non-responders, including non-responders to P. malariae.

Conclusions

Our results show that in low transmission settings, naturally acquired antibody responses against the CSP repeats of P. vivax, P. falciparum, and P. malariae in a single cross-sectional study may not represent a valuable marker for monitoring recent malaria exposure, especially in an area with a high prevalence of P. vivax. Furthermore, HLA class II molecules play an important role in antibody response and require further study with a larger sample size. It will be of interest to consider HLA analysis when using serosurveillance to monitor malaria exposure among genetically diverse populations.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s40249-018-0428-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Identification and characterization of areas of high and low risk for asymptomatic malaria infections at sub-village level in Ratanakiri, Cambodia

BACKGROUND

Malaria elimination needs a concentration of activities towards identification of residual transmission foci and intensification of efforts to eliminate the last few infections, located in so-called 'malaria hotspots'. Previous work on characterizing malaria transmission hotspots has mainly focused on falciparum malaria and especially on symptomatic cases, while the malaria reservoir is expected to be mainly concentrated in the asymptomatic human population when transmission is low. For Plasmodium vivax, there has been less effort in identifying transmission hotspots. The main aim of this study was to uncover micro-epidemiological mechanisms of clustering of malaria infections at a sub-village level, based on geographical or behavioural features.

METHODS

A cross-sectional survey was performed in three villages within the highest malaria endemic province of Cambodia. The survey took place in the dry season, when the malaria reservoir is expected to be low and residing in the asymptomatic part of the population. Village and field locations of households were georeferenced, blood samples were taken from as many residents as possible and a short questionnaire probing for individual risk factors was taken. Asymptomatic malaria carriers were detected by PCR, and geographical clustering analysis (SaTScan) as well as risk factor analysis were performed.

RESULTS

A total of 1540 out of 1792 (86%) individuals were sampled. Plasmodial DNA was detected in 129 individuals (8.4%). P. vivax was most prevalent (5.5%) followed by Plasmodium malariae (2.1%) and Plasmodium falciparum (1.6%). Mixed infection occurred in 12 individuals. In two out of three villages geographical clustering of high and low malaria infection risk was clearly present. Cluster location and risk factors associated with the infection differed between the parasite species. Age was an important risk factor for the combined Plasmodium infections, while watching television at evenings was associated with increased odds of P. vivax infections [OR (CI): 1.86 (0.95-3.64)] and bed net use was associated with reduced odds of P. falciparum infections [OR (CI): 0.25 (0.077-0.80)].

CONCLUSIONS

Clusters of malaria carriers were malaria species specific and often located remotely, outside village centres. As such, at micro-epidemiological level, malaria is not a single disease. Further unravelling the micro-epidemiology of malaria can enable programme managers to define the interventions likely to contribute to halt transmission in a particular hotspot location.

Use of epidemiological and entomological tools in the control and elimination of malaria in Ethiopia

Malaria is the leading public health problem in Ethiopia where over 75% of the land surface is at risk with varying intensities depending on altitude and season. Although the mortality because of malaria infection has declined much during the last 15–20 years, some researchers worry that this success story may not be sustainable. Past notable achievements in the reduction of malaria disease burden could be reversed in the future. To interrupt, or even to eliminate malaria transmission in Ethiopia, there is a need to implement a wide range of interventions that include insecticide-treated bed nets, indoor residual spraying, improved control of residual malaria transmission, and improved diagnostics, enhanced surveillance, and methods to deal with the emergence of resistance both to drugs and to insecticides. Developments during the past years with increasing awareness about the role of very low levels of malaria prevalence can sustain infections, may also demand that tools not used in the routine control efforts to reduce or eliminate malaria, should now be made available in places where malaria transmission occurs.

Individual and household characteristics of persons with Plasmodium falciparum malaria in sites with varying endemicities in Kinshasa Province, Democratic Republic of the Congo

BACKGROUND

The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) bears a large share of global malaria burden despite efforts to control and eliminate the disease. More detailed understanding of individual and household level characteristics associated with malaria are needed, as is an understanding of how these characteristics vary spatiotemporally and across different community-level malaria endemicities. An ongoing study in Kinshasa Province is designed to address gaps in prior malaria surveillance in the DRC by monitoring malaria across seasons, age groups and in high and low malaria sites. Across seven sites, 242 households and 1591 individuals are participating in the study. Results of the enrollment questionnaire, rapid diagnostic tests and PCR testing of dried blood spots are presented.

RESULTS

Overall malaria prevalence in the study cohort is high, 27% by rapid diagnostic test and 31% by polymerase chain reaction, and malaria prevalence is highly varied across very small geographic distances. Malaria prevalence is highest in children aged 6-15. While the majority of households own bed nets, bed net usage is less than 50%.

CONCLUSIONS

The study cohort will provide an understanding of how malaria persists in populations that have varying environmental exposures, varying community-level malaria, and varying access to malaria control efforts.

Geographic-genetic analysis of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations from surveys of primary school children in Western Kenya

Background. Malaria control, and finally malaria elimination, requires the identification and targeting of residual foci or hotspots of transmission. However, the level of parasite mixing within and between geographical locations is likely to impact the effectiveness and durability of control interventions and thus should be taken into consideration when developing control programs.

Methods. In order to determine the geographic-genetic patterns of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations at a sub-national level in Kenya, we used the Sequenom platform to genotype 111 genome-wide distributed single nucleotide polymorphic (SNP) positions in 2486 isolates collected from children in 95 primary schools in western Kenya. We analysed these parasite genotypes for genetic structure using principal component analysis and assessed local and global clustering using statistical measures of spatial autocorrelation. We further examined the region for spatial barriers to parasite movement as well as directionality in the patterns of parasite movement.

Results. We found no evidence of population structure and little evidence of spatial autocorrelation of parasite genotypes (correlation coefficients <0.03 among parasite pairs in distance classes of 1km, 2km and 5km; p value<0.01). An analysis of the geographical distribution of allele frequencies showed weak evidence of variation in distribution of alleles, with clusters representing a higher than expected number of samples with the major allele being identified for 5 SNPs. Furthermore, we found no evidence of the existence of spatial barriers to parasite movement within the region, but observed directional movement of parasites among schools in two separate sections of the region studied.

Conclusions. Our findings illustrate a pattern of high parasite mixing within the study region. If this mixing is due to rapid gene flow, then “one-off” targeted interventions may not be currently effective at the sub-national scale in Western Kenya, due to the high parasite movement that is likely to lead to re-introduction of infection from surrounding regions. However repeated targeted interventions may reduce transmission in the surrounding regions.

Explaining variation in adult Anopheles indoor resting abundance: the relative effects of larval habitat proximity and insecticide-treated bed net use

BACKGROUND

Spatial determinants of malaria risk within communities are associated with heterogeneity of exposure to vector mosquitoes. The abundance of adult malaria vectors inside people's houses, where most transmission takes place, should be associated with several factors: proximity of houses to larval habitats, structural characteristics of houses, indoor use of vector control tools containing insecticides, and human behavioural and environmental factors in and near houses. While most previous studies have assessed the association of larval habitat proximity in landscapes with relatively low densities of larval habitats, in this study these relationships were analysed in a region of rural, lowland western Kenya with high larval habitat density.

METHODS

525 houses were sampled for indoor-resting mosquitoes across an 8 by 8 km study area using the pyrethrum spray catch method. A predictive model of larval habitat location in this landscape, previously verified, provided derivations of indices of larval habitat proximity to houses. Using geostatistical regression models, the association of larval habitat proximity, long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLIN) use, house structural characteristics (wall type, roof type), and peridomestic variables (cooking in the house, cattle near the house, number of people sleeping in the house) with mosquito abundance in houses was quantified.

RESULTS

Vector abundance was low (mean, 1.1 adult Anopheles per house). Proximity of larval habitats was a strong predictor of Anopheles abundance. Houses without an LLIN had more female Anopheles gambiae s.s., Anopheles arabiensis and Anopheles funestus than houses where some people used an LLIN (rate ratios, 95% CI 0.87, 0.85-0.89; 0.84, 0.82-0.86; 0.38, 0.37-0.40) and houses where everyone used an LLIN (RR, 95% CI 0.49, 0.48-0.50; 0.39, 0.39-0.40; 0.60, 0.58-0.61). Cooking in the house also reduced Anopheles abundance across all species. The number of people sleeping in the house, presence of cattle near the house, and house structure modulated Anopheles abundance, but the effect varied with Anopheles species and sex.

CONCLUSIONS

Variation in the abundance of indoor-resting Anopheles in rural houses of western Kenya varies with clearly identifiable factors. Results suggest that LLIN use continues to function in reducing vector abundance, and that larval source management in this region could lead to further reductions in malaria risk by reducing the amount of an obligatory resource for mosquitoes near people's homes.

Geographic-genetic analysis of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations from surveys of primary school children in Western Kenya

Background. Malaria control, and finally malaria elimination, requires the identification and targeting of residual foci or hotspots of transmission. However, the level of parasite mixing within and between geographical locations is likely to impact the effectiveness and durability of control interventions and thus should be taken into consideration when developing control programs. Methods. In order to determine the geographic-genetic patterns of Plasmodium falciparum parasite populations at a sub-national level in Kenya, we used the Sequenom platform to genotype 111 genome-wide distributed single nucleotide polymorphic (SNP) positions in 2486 isolates collected from children in 95 primary schools in western Kenya. We analysed these parasite genotypes for genetic structure using principal component analysis and assessed local and global clustering using statistical measures of spatial autocorrelation. We further examined the region for spatial barriers to parasite movement as well as directionality in the patterns of parasite movement. Results. We found no evidence of population structure and little evidence of spatial autocorrelation of parasite genotypes (correlation coefficients <0.03 among parasite pairs in distance classes of 1km, 2km and 5km; p value<0.01). An analysis of the geographical distribution of allele frequencies showed weak evidence of variation in distribution of alleles, with clusters representing a higher than expected number of samples with the major allele being identified for 5 SNPs. Furthermore, we found no evidence of the existence of spatial barriers to parasite movement within the region, but observed directional movement of parasites among schools in two separate sections of the region studied. Conclusions. Our findings illustrate a pattern of high parasite mixing within the study region. If this mixing is due to rapid gene flow, then “one-off” targeted interventions may not be currently effective at the sub-national scale in Western Kenya, due to the high parasite movement that is likely to lead to re-introduction of infection from surrounding regions. However repeated targeted interventions may reduce transmission in the surrounding regions.

Spatial clustering and risk factors of malaria infections in Bata district, Equatorial Guinea

Background

The transmission of malaria is intense in the majority of the countries of sub-Saharan Africa, particularly in those that are located along the Equatorial strip. The present study aimed to describe the current distribution of malaria prevalence among children and its environment-related factors as well as to detect malaria spatial clusters in the district of Bata, in Equatorial Guinea.

Methods

From June to August 2013 a representative cross-sectional survey using a multistage, stratified, cluster-selected sample was carried out of children in urban and rural areas of Bata District. All children were tested for malaria using rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs). Results were linked to each household by global position system data. Two cluster analysis methods were used: hot spot analysis using the Getis-Ord Gi statistic, and the SaTScan™ spatial statistic estimates, based on the assumption of a Poisson distribution to detect spatial clusters. In addition, univariate associations and Poisson regression model were used to explore the association between malaria prevalence at household level with different environmental factors.

Results

A total of 1416 children aged 2 months to 15 years living in 417 households were included in this study. Malaria prevalence by RDTs was 47.53%, being highest in the age group 6–15 years (63.24%, p < 0.001). Those children living in rural areas were there malaria risk is greater (65.81%) (p < 0.001). Malaria prevalence was higher in those houses located <1 km from a river and <3 km to a forest (IRR: 1.31; 95% CI 1.13–1.51 and IRR: 1.44; 95% CI 1.25–1.66, respectively). Poisson regression analysis also showed a decrease in malaria prevalence with altitude (IRR: 0.73; 95% CI 0.62–0.86). A significant cluster inland of the district, in rural areas has been found.

Conclusions

This study reveals a high prevalence of RDT-based malaria among children in Bata district. Those households situated in inland rural areas, near to a river, a green area and/or at low altitude were a risk factor for malaria. Spatial tools can help policy makers to promote new recommendations for malaria control.

Quantifying Heterogeneous Malaria Exposure and Clinical Protection in a Cohort of Ugandan Children

BACKGROUND

Plasmodium falciparum malaria remains a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality. There are important gaps in our understanding of the factors driving the development of antimalaria immunity as a function of age and exposure.

METHODS

We used data from a cohort of 93 children participating in a clinical trial in Tororo, Uganda, an area of very high exposure to P. falciparum We jointly quantified individual heterogeneity in the risk of infection and the development of immunity against infection and clinical disease.

RESULTS

Results showed significant heterogeneity in the hazard of infection and independent effects of age and cumulative number of infections on the risk of infection and disease. The risk of developing clinical malaria upon infection decreased on average by 6% (95% confidence interval [CI], 0%-12%) for each additional year of age and by 2% (95% CI, 1%-3%) for each additional prior infection. Children randomly assigned to receive dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine for treatment appeared to develop immunity more slowly than those receiving artemether-lumefantrine.

CONCLUSIONS

Heterogeneity in P. falciparum exposure and immunity can be independently evaluated using detailed longitudinal studies. Improved understanding of the factors driving immunity will provide key information to anticipate the impact of malaria-control interventions and to understand the mechanisms of clinical immunity.

Mapping Malaria Risk in Low Transmission Settings: Challenges and Opportunities

As malaria transmission declines, it becomes increasingly focal and prone to outbreaks. Understanding and predicting patterns of transmission risk becomes an important component of an effective elimination campaign, allowing limited resources for control and elimination to be targeted cost-effectively. Malaria risk mapping in low transmission settings is associated with some unique challenges. This article reviews the main challenges and opportunities related to risk mapping in low transmission areas including recent advancements in risk mapping low transmission malaria, relevant metrics, and statistical approaches and risk mapping in post-elimination settings.

Factors associated with high heterogeneity of malaria at fine spatial scale in the Western Kenyan highlands

Background

The East African highlands are fringe regions between stable and unstable malaria transmission. What factors contribute to the heterogeneity of malaria exposure on different spatial scales within larger foci has not been extensively studied. In a comprehensive, community-based cross-sectional survey an attempt was made to identify factors that drive the macro- and micro epidemiology of malaria in a fringe region using parasitological and serological outcomes.

Methods

A large cross-sectional survey including 17,503 individuals was conducted across all age groups in a 100 km² area in the Western Kenyan highlands of Rachuonyo South district. Households were geo-located and prevalence of malaria parasites and malaria-specific antibodies were determined by PCR and ELISA. Household and individual risk-factors were recorded. Geographical characteristics of the study area were digitally derived using high-resolution satellite images.

Results

Malaria antibody prevalence strongly related to altitude (1350–1600 m, p < 0.001). A strong negative association with increasing altitude and PCR parasite prevalence was found. Parasite carriage was detected at all altitudes and in all age groups; 93.2 % (2481/2663) of malaria infections were apparently asymptomatic. Malaria parasite prevalence was associated with age, bed net use, house construction features, altitude and topographical wetness index. Antibody prevalence was associated with all these factors and distance to the nearest water body.

Conclusion

Altitude was a major driver of malaria transmission in this study area, even across narrow altitude bands. The large proportion of asymptomatic parasite carriers at all altitudes and the age-dependent acquisition of malaria antibodies indicate stable malaria transmission; the strong correlation between current parasite carriage and serological markers of malaria exposure indicate temporal stability of spatially heterogeneous transmission.

The Impact of Hotspot-Targeted Interventions on Malaria Transmission in Rachuonyo South District in the Western Kenyan Highlands: A Cluster-Randomized Controlled Trial

BACKGROUND

Malaria transmission is highly heterogeneous, generating malaria hotspots that can fuel malaria transmission across a wider area. Targeting hotspots may represent an efficacious strategy for reducing malaria transmission. We determined the impact of interventions targeted to serologically defined malaria hotspots on malaria transmission both inside hotspots and in surrounding communities.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

Twenty-seven serologically defined malaria hotspots were detected in a survey conducted from 24 June to 31 July 2011 that included 17,503 individuals from 3,213 compounds in a 100-km2 area in Rachuonyo South District, Kenya. In a cluster-randomized trial from 22 March to 15 April 2012, we randomly allocated five clusters to hotspot-targeted interventions with larviciding, distribution of long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, indoor residual spraying, and focal mass drug administration (2,082 individuals in 432 compounds); five control clusters received malaria control following Kenyan national policy (2,468 individuals in 512 compounds). Our primary outcome measure was parasite prevalence in evaluation zones up to 500 m outside hotspots, determined by nested PCR (nPCR) at baseline and 8 wk (16 June-6 July 2012) and 16 wk (21 August-10 September 2012) post-intervention by technicians blinded to the intervention arm. Secondary outcome measures were parasite prevalence inside hotpots, parasite prevalence in the evaluation zone as a function of distance from the hotspot boundary, Anopheles mosquito density, mosquito breeding site productivity, malaria incidence by passive case detection, and the safety and acceptability of the interventions. Intervention coverage exceeded 87% for all interventions. Hotspot-targeted interventions did not result in a change in nPCR parasite prevalence outside hotspot boundaries (p ≥ 0.187). We observed an average reduction in nPCR parasite prevalence of 10.2% (95% CI -1.3 to 21.7%) inside hotspots 8 wk post-intervention that was statistically significant after adjustment for covariates (p = 0.024), but not 16 wk post-intervention (p = 0.265). We observed no statistically significant trend in the effect of the intervention on nPCR parasite prevalence in the evaluation zone in relation to distance from the hotspot boundary 8 wk (p = 0.27) or 16 wk post-intervention (p = 0.75). Thirty-six patients with clinical malaria confirmed by rapid diagnostic test could be located to intervention or control clusters, with no apparent difference between the study arms. In intervention clusters we caught an average of 1.14 female anophelines inside hotspots and 0.47 in evaluation zones; in control clusters we caught an average of 0.90 female anophelines inside hotspots and 0.50 in evaluation zones, with no apparent difference between study arms. Our trial was not powered to detect subtle effects of hotspot-targeted interventions nor designed to detect effects of interventions over multiple transmission seasons.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite high coverage, the impact of interventions targeting malaria vectors and human infections on nPCR parasite prevalence was modest, transient, and restricted to the targeted hotspot areas. Our findings suggest that transmission may not primarily occur from hotspots to the surrounding areas and that areas with highly heterogeneous but widespread malaria transmission may currently benefit most from an untargeted community-wide approach. Hotspot-targeted approaches may have more validity in settings where human settlement is more nuclear.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01575613.

A Regional Model for Malaria Vector Developmental Habitats Evaluated Using Explicit, Pond-Resolving Surface Hydrology Simulations

Dynamical malaria models can relate precipitation to the availability of vector breeding sites using simple models of surface hydrology. Here, a revised scheme is developed for the VECTRI malaria model, which is evaluated alongside the default scheme using a two year simulation by HYDREMATS, a 10 metre resolution, village-scale model that explicitly simulates individual ponds. Despite the simplicity of the two VECTRI surface hydrology parametrization schemes, they can reproduce the sub-seasonal evolution of fractional water coverage. Calibration of the model parameters is required to simulate the mean pond fraction correctly. The default VECTRI model tended to overestimate water fraction in periods subject to light rainfall events and underestimate it during periods of intense rainfall. This systematic error was improved in the revised scheme by including the a parametrization for surface run-off, such that light rainfall below the initial abstraction threshold does not contribute to ponds. After calibration of the pond model, the VECTRI model was able to simulate vector densities that compared well to the detailed agent based model contained in HYDREMATS without further parameter adjustment. Substituting local rain-gauge data with satellite-retrieved precipitation gave a reasonable approximation, raising the prospects for regional malaria simulations even in data sparse regions. However, further improvements could be made if a method can be derived to calibrate the key hydrology parameters of the pond model in each grid cell location, possibly also incorporating slope and soil texture.

Assessing the impact of meteorological factors on malaria patients in demilitarized zones in Republic of Korea

Background

The trend of military patients becoming infected with vivax malaria reemerged in the Republic of Korea (ROK) in 1993. The common explanation has been that infective Anopheles mosquitoes from the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea have invaded Republic of Korea’s demilitarized zone (DMZ). The aim of this study was to verify the relationship between meteorological factors and the number of malaria patients in the military in this region.

Methods

The authors estimated the effects of meteorological factors on vivax malaria patients from the military based on the monthly number of malaria cases between 2006 and 2011. Temperature, precipitation, snow depth, wind velocity, relative humidity, duration of sunshine, and cloud cover were selected as the meteorological factors to be studied. A systematic pattern in the spatial distribution of malaria cases was assessed using the Moran’s Index. Granger causality tests and cross-correlation coefficients were used to evaluate the relationship between meteorological factors and malaria patients in the military.

Results

Spatial analysis revealed significant clusters of malaria patients in the military in Republic of Korea in 2011 (Moran’s I = 0.136, p-value = 0.026). In the six years investigated, the number of malaria patients in the military in Paju decreased, but the number of malaria patients in the military in Hwacheon and Chuncheon increased. Monthly average, maximum and minimum temperatures; wind velocity; and relative humidity were found to be predicting factors of malaria in patients in the military in Paju. In contrast, wind velocity alone was not able to predict malaria in Hwacheon and Chuncheon, however, precipitation and cloud cover were able to predict malaria in Hwacheon and Chuncheon.

Conclusions

This study demonstrated that the number of malaria patients in the military is correlated with meteorological factors. The variation in occurrence of malaria cases was principally attributed to differences in meteorological factors by regions of Republic of Korea.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s40249-016-0111-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Mixed Methods Survey of Zoonotic Disease Awareness and Practice among Animal and Human Healthcare Providers in Moshi, Tanzania

Background

Zoonoses are common causes of human and livestock illness in Tanzania. Previous studies have shown that brucellosis, leptospirosis, and Q fever account for a large proportion of human febrile illness in northern Tanzania, yet they are infrequently diagnosed. We conducted this study to assess awareness and knowledge regarding selected zoonoses among healthcare providers in Moshi, Tanzania; to determine what diagnostic and treatment protocols are utilized; and obtain insights into contextual factors contributing to the apparent under-diagnosis of zoonoses.

Methodology/Results

We conducted a questionnaire about zoonoses knowledge, case reporting, and testing with 52 human health practitioners and 10 livestock health providers. Immediately following questionnaire administration, we conducted semi-structured interviews with 60 of these respondents, using the findings of a previous fever etiology study to prompt conversation. Sixty respondents (97%) had heard of brucellosis, 26 (42%) leptospirosis, and 20 (32%) Q fever. Animal sector respondents reported seeing cases of animal brucellosis (4), rabies (4), and anthrax (3) in the previous 12 months. Human sector respondents reported cases of human brucellosis (15, 29%), rabies (9, 18%) and anthrax (6, 12%). None reported leptospirosis or Q fever cases. Nineteen respondents were aware of a local diagnostic test for human brucellosis. Reports of tests for human leptospirosis or Q fever, or for any of the study pathogens in animals, were rare. Many respondents expressed awareness of malaria over-diagnosis and zoonoses under-diagnosis, and many identified low knowledge and testing capacity as reasons for zoonoses under-diagnosis.

Conclusions

This study revealed differences in knowledge of different zoonoses and low case report frequencies of brucellosis, leptospirosis, and Q fever. There was a lack of known diagnostic services for leptospirosis and Q fever. These findings emphasize a need for improved diagnostic capacity alongside healthcare provider education and improved clinical guidelines for syndrome-based disease management to provoke diagnostic consideration of locally relevant zoonoses in the absence of laboratory confirmation.

Zoonoses are diseases that are naturally transmitted between animals and humans. In Tanzania, research has shown that several zoonoses, including brucellosis, leptospirosis, and Q fever, are common, but under-diagnosed, causes of human illness. We conducted a mixed methods survey, combining quantitative and qualitative research techniques, of healthcare providers in Moshi, Tanzania. Four (40%) of 10 animal sector respondents and 15 (29%) of 52 human sector respondents reported seeing brucellosis cases in the past 12 months, while none reported cases of leptospirosis or Q fever. Nineteen (31%) respondents reported awareness of a local diagnostic test for human brucellosis, while one reported locally available diagnostic tests for human leptospirosis and Q fever. One (2%) respondent reported a locally available animal brucellosis test, and none reported tests for leptospirosis or Q fever in animals. Many respondents mentioned a lack of diagnostic testing resources during interviews. Our findings suggest that diagnostic testing capacity improvements alongside public health campaigns and healthcare provider education are key steps toward improving recognition and accurate diagnosis of zoonoses in this setting. An improved understanding of healthcare provider awareness, perceptions, and practices regarding zoonoses is critical for the design of effective programs to improve diagnosis and treatment of these diseases.

Estimating malaria transmission intensity from Plasmodium falciparum serological data using antibody density models

Background

Serological data are increasingly being used to monitor malaria transmission intensity and have been demonstrated to be particularly useful in areas of low transmission where traditional measures such as EIR and parasite prevalence are limited. The seroconversion rate (SCR) is usually estimated using catalytic models in which the measured antibody levels are used to categorize individuals as seropositive or seronegative. One limitation of this approach is the requirement to impose a fixed cut-off to distinguish seropositive and negative individuals. Furthermore, the continuous variation in antibody levels is ignored thereby potentially reducing the precision of the estimate.

Methods

An age-specific density model which mimics antibody acquisition and loss was developed to make full use of the information provided by serological measures of antibody levels. This was fitted to blood-stage antibody density data from 12 villages at varying transmission intensity in Northern Tanzania to estimate the exposure rate as an alternative measure of transmission intensity.

Results

The results show a high correlation between the exposure rate estimates obtained and the estimated SCR obtained from a catalytic model (r = 0.95) and with two derived measures of EIR (r = 0.74 and r = 0.81). Estimates of exposure rate obtained with the density model were also more precise than those derived from catalytic models.

Conclusion

This approach, if validated across different epidemiological settings, could be a useful alternative framework for quantifying transmission intensity, which makes more complete use of serological data.

Combining Synthetic Human Odours and Low-Cost Electrocuting Grids to Attract and Kill Outdoor-Biting Mosquitoes: Field and Semi-Field Evaluation of an Improved Mosquito Landing Box

BACKGROUND

On-going malaria transmission is increasingly mediated by outdoor-biting vectors, especially where indoor insecticidal interventions such as long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) are widespread. Often, the vectors are also physiologically resistant to insecticides, presenting major obstacles for elimination. We tested a combination of electrocuting grids with synthetic odours as an alternative killing mechanism against outdoor-biting mosquitoes.

METHODS

An odour-baited device, the Mosquito Landing Box (MLB), was improved by fitting it with low-cost electrocuting grids to instantly kill mosquitoes attracted to the odour lure, and automated photo switch to activate attractant-dispensing and mosquito-killing systems between dusk and dawn. MLBs fitted with one, two or three electrocuting grids were compared outdoors in a malaria endemic village in Tanzania, where vectors had lost susceptibility to pyrethroids. MLBs with three grids were also tested in a large semi-field cage (9.6 × 9.6 × 4.5m), to assess effects on biting-densities of laboratory-reared Anopheles arabiensis on volunteers sitting near MLBs.

RESULTS

Significantly more mosquitoes were killed when MLBs had two or three grids, than one grid in wet and dry seasons (P<0.05). The MLBs were highly efficient against Mansonia species and malaria vector, An. arabiensis. Of all mosquitoes, 99% were non-blood fed, suggesting host-seeking status. In the semi-field, the MLBs reduced mean number of malaria mosquitoes attempting to bite humans fourfold.

CONCLUSION

The improved odour-baited MLBs effectively kill outdoor-biting malaria vector mosquitoes that are behaviourally and physiologically resistant to insecticidal interventions e.g. LLINs. The MLBs reduce human-biting vector densities even when used close to humans, and are insecticide-free, hence potentially antiresistance. The devices could either be used as surveillance tools or complementary mosquito control interventions to accelerate malaria elimination where outdoor transmission is significant.

Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum Malaria among Pregnant Students in Dodoma Region, Tanzania: No Cases Have Been Detected

Malaria in pregnancy, being often asymptomatic, is a major problem in endemic African countries. It is characterized by anemia and placental malaria leading to poor pregnancy outcomes. In 2001 Tanzania adopted an intermittent-preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy (IPTp) policy, which recommends receiving doses of antimalarial drugs every planned visit to the antenatal care centre (ANC), starting from the second trimester. Currently the policy is valid across the whole country, regardless that there are regions with very low malaria endemicity in Tanzania, such as Dodoma region. The current study aimed to show the real prevalence of malaria among young pregnant women in Dodoma region, by measuring the prevalence of malaria among University of Dodoma (UDOM) students, and to describe the social health care features of student female community. Two methods of malaria diagnostic, microscopy, and rapid test, as well as retrospective inspection of ANC registry book, showed the very low prevalence of malaria disease among pregnant students, approximately 0.3%. Additionally, the sociodemographic data from the questionnaires showed that all students use different malaria preventive measures, and most of them have the regular sexual partner. This fact approves the correlation between illiteracy of woman and the risk of malaria infection transmission.

Environmental risk factors and hotspot analysis of dengue distribution in Pakistan

This study is an attempt to find out the factors responsible for sudden dengue outbreak in different cities of Pakistan during 2011. For this purpose, spatio-temporal distribution of dengue in Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, and Karachi has been taken into account. According to the available data, the factors responsible for this spread includes climate covariates like rainfall, temperature, and wind speed; social covariates like population, and area of locality, and environmental risk factors like drainage pattern and geo-hydrological conditions. Reported dengue cases from localities and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) 90 m digital elevation model (DEM) of study areas have been processed for hotspots, regression model and stream density in the localities of high dengue incidence. The relationship of daily dengue incidence with climate covariates during the months of July-October of the study year is analyzed. Results show that each dry spell of 2-4 days provides suitable conditions for the development and survival of dengue vectors during the wet months of July and August in the areas of high stream density and population. Very few cases have been reported in July while higher number of cases reported in the months of August, September, until late October. Hotspot analysis highlights the areas of high dengue incidence while regression analysis shows the relationship between the population and the areas of localities with the dengue incidence.

Spatial Patterns of Plasmodium falciparum Clinical Incidence, Asymptomatic Parasite Carriage and Anopheles Density in Two Villages in Mali

Heterogeneity in malaria exposure is most readily recognized in areas with low-transmission patterns. By comparison, little research has been done on spatial patterns in malaria exposure in high-endemic settings. We determined the spatial clustering of clinical malaria incidence, asymptomatic parasite carriage, and Anopheles density in two villages in Mali exposed to low- and mesoendemic-malaria transmission. In the two study areas that were < 1 km(2) in size, we observed evidence for spatial clustering of Anopheles densities or malaria parasite carriage during the dry season. Anopheles density and malaria prevalence appeared associated in some of our detected hotspots. However, many households with high parasite prevalence or high Anopheles densities were located outside the identified hotspots. Our findings indicate that within small villages exposed to low- or mesoendemic-malaria transmission, spatial patterns in mosquito densities and parasite carriage are best detected in the dry season. Considering the high prevalence of parasite carriage outside detected hotspots, the suitability of the area for targeting control efforts to households or areas of more intense malaria transmission may be limited.

The value of local malaria strains for serological studies: local strains versus Palo Alto reference strain

Background

The standardization of the type of crude Plasmodium falciparum extracts for assays to evaluate the overall anti-blood-stage immune response in humans may be beneficial to malaria pre-elimination programmes. However, there is no consensus on which strain is appropriate for routine analyses. This study aimed to compare the responses of malaria IgG antibodies in serum collections from Dielmo and Ndiop to crude extracts of merozoites and schizonts of local and reference strains of P. falciparum.

Methods

Malaria antibodies were evaluated using serological tests for exposure to three local strains (0703, F15 and F16) and the P. falciparum reference Palo Alto strain (PA). A total of 218 sera collected in 2000 from inhabitants of the villages of Dielmo and Ndiop were used: 142 from Dielmo and 76 from Ndiop. The biological collection was used to evaluate by ELISA the prevalence of IgG antibodies against crude merozoite and schizont extracts. The genetics of the local and reference strains were compared.

Results

There was genetic divergence between strains 0703, F15, F16 and PA. IgG responses against local and reference strains correlated well (0.6 to 0.8; p < 0.01). Ig G responses were highest to schizont and merozoite extracts from the field strain of P. falciparum 0703 adapted to in vitro culture. Extracts of P. falciparum strain 0703 isolated from a subject in Dielmo was the most widely recognized [91.3 % (199/218) and 81.2 % (177/218) for schizonts and merozoites, respectively], although the responses were high for merozoites from PA [85.3 % (186/218)] the reference strain, and the two strains isolated from subjects living in Dakar: F15 [90.4 % (197/218)] and F16 [72.5 % (158/218)].

Conclusions

For serological studies, the local strain provided the most complete picture of exposure to transmission and malaria prevalence in the local context. However, for the standardization of this method by different laboratories, the reference strain appeared to perform sufficiently well to be used for the evaluation of malaria control programmes.

Climate drivers on malaria transmission in Arunachal Pradesh, India

The present study was conducted during the years 2006 to 2012 and provides information on prevalence of malaria and its regulation with effect to various climatic factors in East Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh, India. Correlation analysis, Principal Component Analysis and Hotelling's T² statistics models are adopted to understand the effect of weather variables on malaria transmission. The epidemiological study shows that the prevalence of malaria is mostly caused by the parasite Plasmodium vivax followed by Plasmodium falciparum. It is noted that, the intensity of malaria cases declined gradually from the year 2006 to 2012. The transmission of malaria observed was more during the rainy season, as compared to summer and winter seasons. Further, the data analysis study with Principal Component Analysis and Hotelling's T² statistic has revealed that the climatic variables such as temperature and rainfall are the most influencing factors for the high rate of malaria transmission in East Siang district of Arunachal Pradesh.

Dengue transmission based on urban environmental gradients in different cities of Pakistan

This study focuses on the dengue transmission in different regions of Pakistan. For this purpose, the data of dengue cases for 2009-2012 from four different cities (Rawalpindi, Islamabad, Lahore, and Karachi) of the country is collected, evaluated, and compiled. To identify the reasons and regions of higher risk of Dengue transmission, land use classification, analysis of climate covariates and drainage patterns was done. Analysis involves processing of SPOT 5 10 m, Landsat TM 30 m data sets, and SRTM 90 m digital elevation models by using remote sensing and GIS techniques. The results are based on the change in urbanization and population density, analysis of temperature, rainfall, and wind speed; calculation of drainage patterns including stream features, flow accumulation, and drainage density of the study areas. Results suggest that the low elevation areas with calm winds and minimum temperatures higher than the normal, rapid increase in unplanned urbanization, low flow accumulation, and higher drainage density areas favor the dengue transmission.

Mapping hotspots of malaria transmission from pre-existing hydrology, geology and geomorphology data in the pre-elimination context of Zanzibar, United Republic of Tanzania

BACKGROUND

Larval source management strategies can play an important role in malaria elimination programmes, especially for tackling outdoor biting species and for eliminating parasite and vector populations when they are most vulnerable during the dry season. Effective larval source management requires tools for identifying geographic foci of vector proliferation and malaria transmission where these efforts may be concentrated. Previous studies have relied on surface topographic wetness to indicate hydrological potential for vector breeding sites, but this is unsuitable for karst (limestone) landscapes such as Zanzibar where water flow, especially in the dry season, is subterranean and not controlled by surface topography.

METHODS

We examine the relationship between dry and wet season spatial patterns of diagnostic positivity rates of malaria infection amongst patients reporting to health facilities on Unguja, Zanzibar, with the physical geography of the island, including land cover, elevation, slope angle, hydrology, geology and geomorphology in order to identify transmission hot spots using Boosted Regression Trees (BRT) analysis.

RESULTS

The distribution of both wet and dry season malaria infection rates can be predicted using freely available static data, such as elevation and geology. Specifically, high infection rates in the central and southeast regions of the island coincide with outcrops of hard dense limestone which cause locally elevated water tables and the location of dolines (shallow depressions plugged with fine-grained material promoting the persistence of shallow water bodies).

CONCLUSIONS

This analysis provides a tractable tool for the identification of malaria hotspots which incorporates subterranean hydrology, which can be used to target larval source management strategies.

Distance to Anopheles sundaicus larval habitats dominant among risk factors for parasitemia in meso-endemic Southwest Sumba, Indonesia

BACKGROUND

The decline in intensity of malaria transmission in many areas now emphasizes greater importance of understanding the epidemiology of low to moderate transmission settings. Marked heterogeneity in infection risk within these populations creates opportunities to understand transmission and guide resource allocation to greater impact.

METHODS

In this study, we examined spatial patterns of malaria transmission in a hypo- to meso-endemic area of eastern Indonesia using malaria prevalence data collected from a cross-sectional socio-demographic and parasitological survey conducted from August to November 2010. An entomological survey performed in parallel, identified, mapped, and monitored local anopheline larval habitats.

RESULTS

A single spatial cluster of higher malaria prevalence was detected during the study period (relative risk=2.13; log likelihood ratio=20.7; P<0.001). In hierarchical multivariate regression models, risk of parasitemia was inversely correlated with distance to five Anopheles sundaicus known larval habitats [odds ratio (OR)=0.21; 95% confidence interval (CI)=0.14-0.32; P<0.001], which were located in a geographically restricted band adjacent to the coastline. Increasing distance from these sites predicted increased hemoglobin level across age strata after adjusting for confounders (OR=1.6; 95% CI=1.30-1.98; P<0.001).

CONCLUSION

Significant clustering of malaria parasitemia in close proximity to very specific and relatively few An. sundaicus larval habitats has direct implications for local control strategy, policy, and practice. These findings suggest that larval source management could achieve profound if not complete impact in this region.

Identifying malaria hotspots in Keur Soce health and demographic surveillance site in context of low transmission

Background

Malaria is major public health problem in Senegal. In some parts of the country, it occurs almost permanently with a seasonal increase during the rainy season. There is evidence to suggest that the prevalence of malaria in Senegal has decreased considerably during the past few years. Recent data from the Senegalese National Malaria Control Programme (NMCP) indicates that the number of malaria cases decrease from 1,500,000 in 2006 to 174,339 in 2010. With the decline of malaria morbidity in Senegal, the characterization of the new epidemiological profile of this disease is crucial for public health decision makers.

Methods

SaTScan™ software using the Kulldorf method of retrospective space-time permutation and the Bernoulli purely spatial model was used to identify malaria clusters using confirmed malaria cases in 74 villages. ArcMAp was used to map malaria hotspots. Logistic regression was used to investigate risk factors for malaria hotspots in Keur Soce health and demographic surveillance site.

Results

A total of 1,614 individuals in 440 randomly selected households were enrolled. The overall malaria prevalence was 12%. The malaria prevalence during the study period varied from less than 2% to more than 25% from one village to another. The results showed also that rooms located between 50 m to 100 m away from livestock holding place [adjusted O.R = 0.7, P = 0.044, 95% C.I (1.02 - 7.42)], bed net use [adjusted O.R = 1.2, P = 0.024, 95% C.I (1.02 –1.48)], are good predictors for malaria hotspots in the Keur Soce health and demographic surveillance site. The socio economic status of the household also predicted on hotspots patterns. The less poor household are 30% less likely to be classified as malaria hotspots area compared to the poorest household [adjusted O.R = 0.7, P = 0.014, 95% C.I (0.47 – 0.91)].

Conclusion

The study investigated risk factors for malaria hotspots in small communities in the Keur Soce site. The result showed considerable variation of malaria prevalence between villages which cannot be detected in aggregated data. The data presented in this paper are the first step to understanding malaria in the Keur Soce site from a micro-geographic perspective.

The independent effect of living in malaria hotspots on future malaria infection: an observational study from Misungwi, Tanzania

BACKGROUND

As malaria transmission declines, continued improvements of prevention and control interventions will increasingly rely on accurate knowledge of risk factors and an ability to define high-risk areas and populations at risk for focal targeting of interventions. This paper explores the independent association between living in a hotspot and prospective risk of malaria infection.

METHODS

Malaria infection status defined by nPCR and AMA-1 status in year 1 were used to define geographic hotspots using two geospatial statistical methods (SaTScan and Kernel density smoothing). Other malaria risk factors for malaria infection were explored by fitting a multivariable model.

RESULTS

This study demonstrated that residing in infection hotspot of malaria transmission is an independent predictor of malaria infection in the future.

CONCLUSION

It is likely that targeting such hotspots with better coverage and improved malaria control strategies will result in more cost-efficient uses of resources to move towards malaria elimination.

Geographically weighted regression of land cover determinants of Plasmodium falciparum transmission in the Ashanti Region of Ghana

Background

Malaria is a mosquito-borne parasitic disease that causes severe mortality and morbidity, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. As the vectors predominantly bite between dusk and dawn, risk of infection is determined by the abundance of P. falciparum infected mosquitoes in the surroundings of the households. Remote sensing is commonly employed to detect associations between land use/land cover (LULC) and mosquito-borne diseases. Due to challenges in LULC identification and the fact that LULC merely functions as a proxy for mosquito abundance, assuming spatially homogenous relationships may lead to overgeneralized conclusions.

Methods

Data on incidence of P. falciparum parasitaemia were recorded by active and passive follow-up over two years. Nine LULC types were identified through remote sensing and ground-truthing. Spatial associations of LULC and P. falciparum parasitaemia rate were described in a semi-parametric geographically weighted Poisson regression model.

Results

Complete data were available for 878 individuals, with an annual P. falciparum rate of 3.2 infections per person-year at risk. The influences of built-up areas (median incidence rate ratio (IRR): 0.94, IQR: 0.46), forest (median IRR: 0.9, IQR: 0.51), swampy areas (median IRR: 1.15, IQR: 0.88), as well as banana (median IRR: 1.02, IQR: 0.25), cacao (median IRR: 1.33, IQR: 0.97) and orange plantations (median IRR: 1.11, IQR: 0.68) on P. falciparum rate show strong spatial variations within the study area. Incorporating spatial variability of LULC variables increased model performance compared to the spatially homogenous model.

Conclusions

The observed spatial variability of LULC influence in parasitaemia would have been masked by traditional Poisson regression analysis assuming a spatially constant influence of all variables. We conclude that the spatially varying effects of LULC on P. falciparum parasitaemia may in fact be associated with co-factors not captured by remote sensing, and suggest that future studies assess small-scale spatial variation of vegetation to circumvent generalised assumptions on ecological associations that may in fact be artificial.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/1476-072X-13-35) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Evolution of Plastic Transmission Strategies in Avian Malaria

Malaria parasites have been shown to adjust their life history traits to changing environmental conditions. Parasite relapses and recrudescences—marked increases in blood parasite numbers following a period when the parasite was either absent or present at very low levels in the blood, respectively—are expected to be part of such adaptive plastic strategies. Here, we first present a theoretical model that analyses the evolution of transmission strategies in fluctuating seasonal environments and we show that relapses may be adaptive if they are concomitant with the presence of mosquitoes in the vicinity of the host. We then experimentally test the hypothesis that Plasmodium parasites can respond to the presence of vectors. For this purpose, we repeatedly exposed birds infected by the avian malaria parasite Plasmodium relictum to the bites of uninfected females of its natural vector, the mosquito Culex pipiens, at three different stages of the infection: acute (∼34 days post infection), early chronic (∼122 dpi) and late chronic (∼291 dpi). We show that: (i) mosquito-exposed birds have significantly higher blood parasitaemia than control unexposed birds during the chronic stages of the infection and that (ii) this translates into significantly higher infection prevalence in the mosquito. Our results demonstrate the ability of Plasmodium relictum to maximize their transmission by adopting plastic life history strategies in response to the availability of insect vectors.

Seasonal fluctuations in the environment affect dramatically the abundance of insect species. These fluctuations have important consequences for the transmission of vector-borne diseases. Here we contend that malaria parasites may have evolved plastic transmission strategies as an adaptation to the fluctuations in mosquito densities. First, our theoretical analysis identifies the conditions for the evolution of such plastic transmission strategies. Second, we show that in avian malaria Plasmodium parasites have the ability to increase transmission after being bitten by uninfected Culex mosquitoes. This demonstrates the ability of Plasmodium parasites to adopt plastic transmission strategies and challenges our understanding of malaria epidemiology.

Longitudinal study on Plasmodium falciparum gametocyte carriage following artemether-lumefantrine administration in a cohort of children aged 12-47 months living in Western Kenya, a high transmission area

BACKGROUND

The effects that artemether-lumefantrine (AL) has on gametocyte dynamics in the short-term have recently been described. However there is limited long-term longitudinal data on the effect of AL on gametocyte dynamics in asymptomatic children.

METHODS

An epidemiological study was conducted in Kombewa, Western Kenya, in which 270 asymptomatic children aged between 12 and 47 months were enrolled. The subjects were randomized to receive either a course of AL or placebo at enrolment. Active follow-up was conducted for one year.

RESULTS

The gametocyte prevalence and density dynamics throughout the study period mirrored that of the asexual forms. The proportion of initially parasitaemic subjects becoming gametocytaemic was significantly lower in the AL arm for the first 12 weeks following randomization. The geometric mean gametocyte density was lower in the AL arm for 2 weeks following randomization. None of the variables of interest had a statistically significant effect on the duration of gametocytaemia. There is no effect seen in subjects who are not parasitaemic at the time of drug administration.

CONCLUSIONS

The treatment of asymptomatic parasitaemic subjects with AL results in a significant reduction in the proportion of subjects who become gametocytaemic for at least 12 weeks.