Trends in HPV cervical and seroprevalence and associations between oral and genital infection and serum antibodies in NHANES 2003-2012

Multinational epidemiological analysis of oral human papillomavirus incidence in 3,137 men

Oral human papillomavirus (HPV) is associated with oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). Although OPC incidence is increasing globally, knowledge of oral HPV infection rates is limited. Here we carried out an observational epidemiological analysis of oral HPV incidence in 3,137 men enrolled from the United States, Mexico and Brazil between 2005 and 2009. Individuals were followed for new HPV infection for a median of 57 months. Cumulative incidence and factors associated with acquisition were also assessed. The incidence rate of oral oncogenic HPV was 2.4 per 1,000 person-months, did not vary with age and was constant throughout the study period. Risk of oral HPV acquisition was significantly associated with alcohol consumption, having male sexual partners, more lifetime female sexual partners, more oral sex given and higher educational attainment. These data indicate that men are at risk of acquiring oral HPV throughout their lifetime, suggesting that catch-up vaccination may reduce new infection incidence.

Latent Class Analysis of Sexual Partnerships and Substance Use Across Generations

Sexually transmitted infections (STIs) remain an important public health concern for people of all age groups, with older age groups experiencing a notable increase in STI burden. Historically, most research into STI risk behaviors has focused on adolescents and young adults, leaving a paucity of research on the ways STI risk factors change over the life course. Additionally, age and cohort trends in STI risk factors can be challenging to investigate with standard statistical tools as they can be collinear and are subject to sociocultural and generational influences. To help address these issues, we used multi-group latent class analysis to identify and compare risk behavior profiles defined by responses to three sexual activity and three substance use variables, across and within four age groups. We identified six behavior profiles in the unstratified dataset and five behavior profiles in each of the four age stratified groups. The five behavior profiles identified in each of the age categories appear to reflect a similar set of five underlying profile "archetypes," with the exact composition of each age category's five profiles varying in the magnitude that specific behaviors are endorsed. Interestingly, despite the similarity of profiles across the four age groups, analyses indicate that the experience of belonging to any one of these five archetypes differs by age group. This variance is likely due group specific age, period, and cohort effects, and may indicate that, when estimating one's STI risk, it is better to compare them to their peers than to the population as a whole.

Prevalence and Determinants of Cervicovaginal, Oral, and Anal Human Papillomavirus Infection in a Population of Transgender and Gender Diverse People Assigned Female at Birth

Purpose: The human papillomavirus (HPV) causes cervicovaginal, oral, and anogenital cancer, and cervical cancer screening options include HPV testing of a clinician-collected sample. Transgender and gender diverse (TGD) people assigned female at birth (AFAB) face many barriers to preventive care, including cancer screening. Self-sampling options may increase access and participation in HPV testing and cancer screening. This study estimated the prevalence of HPV in self-collected cervicovaginal, oral, and anal samples from Midwestern TGD individuals AFAB. Methods: We recruited TGD individuals AFAB for an observational study, mailing them materials to self-collect cervicovaginal, oral, and anal samples at home. We tested samples for high-risk (HR; 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59) and other HPV genotypes (6, 11, 66, 68, 73, 90) using a polymerase chain reaction mass array test. Prevalence ratios for HPV infection at each site as a function of participant characteristics were estimated in log-binomial models. Results: Out of 137 consenting participants, 102 completed sample collection. Among those with valid tests, 8.8% (HR = 6.6%; HPV 16/18 = 3.3%) were positive for oral HPV, 30.5% (HR = 26.8%; HPV 16/18 = 9.7%) for cervicovaginal HPV, and 39.6% (HR = 33.3%; HPV 16/18 = 8.3%) for anal HPV. A larger fraction of oral (71.4%) than anal infections (50.0%) were concordant with a cervicovaginal infection of the same type. Conclusions: We detected HR cervicovaginal, oral, and anal HPV in TGD people AFAB. It is essential that we reduce barriers to cancer screening for TGD populations, such as through the development of a clinically approved self-screening HPV test.

Prevalence and determinants of cervicovaginal, oral, and anal HPV infection in a population of transgender and gender diverse people assigned female at birth

Introduction

HPV causes oral, cervicovaginal, and anogenital cancer, and cervical cancer screening options include HPV testing of a physician-collected sample. Transgender and gender diverse (TGD) people assigned female at birth (AFAB) face discrimination and stigma in many healthcare settings; are believed to be a lower risk for cervical cancer by many physicians; are less likely to be up to date on preventive health care services such as pelvic health exams; and are more likely to have inadequate results from screening tests. Self-sampling options may increase access and participation in HPV testing and cancer screening.

Methods

We recruited 137 TGD individuals AFAB for an observational study, mailing them a kit to self-collect cervicovaginal, oral, and anal samples at home. We tested samples for HPV genotypes 6, 11, 16, 18, 31, 33, 35, 39, 45, 51, 52, 56, 58, 59, 66, 68, 73 and 90 using a PCR mass array test.

Results

102 participants completed the study. Among those with valid tests, 8.8% were positive for oral HPV, 30.5% were positive for cervicovaginal HPV, and 39.6% were positive for anal HPV. A large fraction of anal (50.0%) and oral (71.4%) infections were concordant with a cervicovaginal infection of the same type.

Conclusions

HPV infection in TGD people AFAB may be just as high, if not higher, than in cisgender women. It is essential that we reduce barriers to cancer screening for TGD populations, such as through the development of a clinically approved self-screening HPV test.

Dietary Vitamin K Intake and HPV-Infection Status Among American Women: A Secondary Analysis From National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Data From 2003 to 2016

Objective: Cervical cancer is a serious potential risk to women’s health, and is closely related to persistent HPV infection. Vitamin K mainly existed in green vegetables, fruit, and dairy products. This research aims to observe the association between vitamin K and HPV-infection.

Methods: 13,447 participants from the NHANES were selected. Dietary vitamin K intake was used as the objective independent variable and continuous variable, HPV-infection status was used as the outcome variable, and characteristics of selected participants were used as the covariates.

Results: There was a nonlinearity between vitamin K intake and HPV-infection, and the inflection point is 3.81 of log2 vitamin K intake. In a range of 0–3.81, Each one-unit increase in log2 vitamin K intake was associated with a 43% reduction in the risk of HPV infection. When log2 vitamin K intake excess of 3.81, the risk of HPV infection did not continue to decline. The HPV-subtype was not associated with vitamin K intake.

Conclusion: There is a nonlinearity between vitamin K intake and HPV-infection status. But HPV-subtype was not associated with vitamin K intake.

Oral human papillomavirus prevalence, persistence, and risk-factors in HIV-positive and HIV-negative adults

Background

HIV has been shown to increase the likelihood of oral HPV infection. In this study, we evaluated the risk of oral HPV in HIV infected patients compared with HIV-negative controls.

Methods

101 healthy adult volunteers (HIV-) and 245 adults living with HIV infection (HIV+) were recruited from 5 academic medical centers. Questionnaires and saliva samples were obtained every 3–8 months over a period of 2 years (2015–2017). DNA was isolated from the saliva samples and tested for 18 high- and low-risk genotypes.

Results

Oral HPV was detected in 23% of HIV + vs. 10% of HIV- participants (p < 0.0001). Men had a higher oral HPV prevalence than women (27% vs. 15% HIV+, p = 0.03, 16% vs. 5% HIV-, p = 0.01). Risk factors among HIV + participants included more lifetime deep kissing and oral sex partners, and history of AIDS. Persistent oral HPV was detected in 23% of HIV + vs. 5% of HIV- participants (p < 0.001). Among 8 HIV + participants with CD4 counts <200 cell/μL none had cleared their HPV infection during the study.

Conclusions

Risk of oral HPV infection and persistence was significantly higher in HIV + adults with a history of poorly controlled HIV, which may put them at increased risk of HPV-associated cancer.

Low Rates of Dual-Site and Concordant Oral-Cervical Human Papillomavirus Infections and Cancers: A Systematic Review

Objective

The oral-cervical human papillomavirus (HPV) infection/cancer relationship is not well established. Oral-cervical HPV studies were reviewed to assess dual-site occurrence, HPV type concordance, and study quality/deficiencies.

Methods

PubMed, EMBASE, Ovid Medline, and Web of Science were searched between 1/1/1990 and 8/10/2021 for studies investigating HPV infections/cancers and type concordance between the oral cavity/oropharynx and cervix. Dual-site and concordant HPV infection rates were summarized as percentages; cancer diagnoses studies were summarized using standardized incidence ratios (SIR). The Quality Assessment Tool for Quantitative Studies (QATQS) evaluated study methodology.

Results

One hundred fourteen papers were identified. Most were cross-sectional (n=79, 69%), involved synchronous dual-site HPV testing (n=80, 70%), did not report HPV type concordance (n=62, 54%), and achieved moderate methodological QATQS ratings (n=81, 71%). The overall dual-site infection rate averaged 16%; the HPV type concordance rate averaged 41%, among those dually-infected women. Most HPV-related cancer diagnoses studies reported increased secondary cancer risk, with SIRs generally ranging from 1.4 to 29.4 for secondary cervical cancer after primary oral cancer and from 1.4 to 6.3 for secondary oral cancer after primary cervical cancer.

Conclusion/Impact

Oral-cervical HPV infections/cancers remain understudied. Future research should use stronger methodologies and HPV concordance analyses to better understand oral-cervical HPV epidemiology.

Prevalence and concordance of oral HPV infections with cervical HPV infections in women referred to colposcopy with abnormal cytology

BACKGROUND

Considering the shared aetiology of Human Papillomavirus infections in oropharyngeal and cervical cancers and the possible role for sexual transmission, several key aspects of the relationship between cervical and oral infections merit investigation, including prevalence of concomitant oral HPV infection and type-specific concordance with concurrent cervical infections.

METHODS

A cross-section study was performed on women referred to colposcopy clinics with cytological abnormalities and a cervical HPV infection. An oral rinse sample was taken from the participants at their baseline visit for HPV testing, and a demographic and risk factor questionnaire was also administered. HPV DNA testing was carried out on the Cobas 4800 platform and extended genotyping was carried out with the INNO-LiPA HPV Genotyping Extra II assay. HPV genotyping was also carried out on the concurrent cervical tissue samples on all women who had a positive oral HPV infection.

RESULTS

The prevalence of oral HPV infections was 10.0% (95%CI:5.9-13.7) in the study population. HPV18 was the most frequent genotype (7.0%). Concordant oral and cervical HPV infections were detected in 28.6% of women. Age (p = 0.005) and level of education (p = 0.02) were significantly associated with a prevalent oral HPV infection.

CONCLUSION

Concomitant oral HPV infections were present in 10.0% of women referred to colposcopy with a pre-existing cervical HPV infections and cytological abnormalities. Although mild type-specific concordance was observed between oral and cervical HPV infections, findings suggest that infections at these sites may not be independent of each other.

Changes in HPV Seroprevalence from an Unvaccinated toward a Girls-Only Vaccinated Population in the Netherlands

BACKGROUND

In the Netherlands, bivalent human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination was included in the National Immunization Program for 12-year-old girls in 2010 (vaccination coverage, 45%-60%). We examined possible changes in HPV seroprevalence in the HPV-unvaccinated Dutch population aged 0-89 years, comparing prevaccination data with data of approximately 6 years after implementation of national vaccination.

METHODS

Serum samples of men and women were used from two cross-sectional population-based serosurveillance studies performed before (2006-07, n = 6,384) and after (2016-17, n = 5,645) implementation of HPV vaccination in the Netherlands. Seven high-risk HPV-specific antibodies (HPV16, 18, 31, 33, 45, 52, and 58) were tested in a virus-like particle-based multiplex immunoassay.

RESULTS

Type-specific HPV seroprevalence increased in women between 2006-07 and 2016-17. Also, a higher seroprevalence for at least one type in women >15 years was found in 2016-17 (31.7%) compared with 2006-07 (25.2%). In men, overall HPV seroprevalence remained similar; however, a lower seroprevalence was found for HPV16 in 2016-17 (7.5%) compared with 2006-07 (10.6%).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicate an increase in high-risk HPV types in women and a rather stable exposure in men. No clear effects of the strategy of girls-only vaccination were observed in men, probably because of the short time after introduction combined with suboptimal coverage.

IMPACT

No herd immunity has been observed yet in a population with suboptimal HPV vaccination coverage.

Dietary Calcium Intake and HPV Infection Status Among American Women: A Secondary Analysis from National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) Data Set of 2003 - 2016

Background

The evidence on the link of dietary calcium (DCa) to human papillomavirus (HPV) infection is limited. Thus, this research was conducted to explore whether DCa is independently associated with HPV infection status in American women with age of 18 to 59 years old.

Material/Methods

We performed a secondary analysis from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) data set including 7 cycles from 2003 to 2016. A total of 13 475 selected participants were used for data analysis. The interested independent and the outcome variable were DCa and HPV infection status (HPV infection; HPV subtype). Sociodemographic, dietary, laboratory, questionnaire, and physical examination data were covariates. Weighted binary logistic regression and generalized additive model (GAM) were used for the investigation of both linear and non-linear relationships between DCa and HPV infection status.

Results

Weighted multivariable binary logistic regression indicated DCa was not associated with HPV infection and subtype (OR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.82–1.05 for HPV infection; OR: 1.09; 95% CI: 0.93–1.28 for HPV subtype). For HPV infection, a non-linear correlation was detected, whose inflection points were 9.78 of log2 DCa. The OR values and the confidence intervals on both sides of inflection point were 0.83 (95% CI: 0.70–0.98) and 1.18 (95% CI: 0.91–1.52), respectively.

Conclusions

At the range of 3.32–9.78 of log2 calcium intake, DCa intake was negatively correlated with HPV infection. After this interval, DCa intake was not associated with the risk of HPV infection.

Integrating measures of viral prevalence and seroprevalence: a mechanistic modelling approach to explaining cohort patterns of human papillomavirus in women in the USA

Incidence of human papillomavirus (HPV) related cancers is increasing, generating substantial interest in understanding how trends in population prevalence of HPV infection are changing. However, there are no direct, population-scale measurements of HPV prevalence prior to 2003. Previous work using models to reconstruct historical trends have focused only on genital infection or seroprevalence (prevalence of antibodies) separately, and the results of these single-measure studies have been hard to reconcile. Here, we develop a mechanistic disease model fit jointly to cervicogential prevalence and seroprevalence in unvaccinated women in the USA using National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data (2003-2010) and compare it to fits of statistical age-cohort models. We find that including a latent HPV state in our model significantly improves model fit and that antibody waning may be an important contributor to observed patterns of seroprevalence. Moreover, we find that the mechanistic model outperforms the statistical model and that the joint analysis prevents the inconsistencies that arise when estimating historical cohort trends in infection from genital prevalence and seroprevalence separately. Our analysis suggests that while there is substantial uncertainty associated with the estimation of historic HPV trends, there has likely been an increase in the force of infection for more recent birth cohorts. This article is part of the theme issue 'Silent cancer agents: multi-disciplinary modelling of human DNA oncoviruses'.

Case Studies of Gastric, Lung, and Oral Cancer Connect Etiologic Agent Prevalence to Cancer Incidence

Obtaining detailed individual-level data on both exposure and cancer outcomes is challenging, and it is difficult to understand and characterize how temporal aspects of exposures translate into cancer risk. We show that, in lieu of individual-level information, population-level data on cancer incidence and etiologic agent prevalence can be leveraged to investigate cancer mechanisms and to better characterize and predict cancer trends. We use mechanistic carcinogenesis models [multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) models] and data on smoking, Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori), and HPV infection prevalence to investigate trends of lung, gastric, and HPV-related oropharyngeal cancers. MSCE models are based on the initiation-promotion-malignant conversion paradigm and allow for interpretation of trends in terms of general biological mechanisms. We assumed the rates of initiation depend on the prevalence of the corresponding risk factors. We performed two types of analysis, using the agent prevalence and cancer incidence data to estimate the model parameters and using cancer incidence data to infer the etiologic agent prevalence as well as the model parameters. By including risk factor prevalence, MSCE models with as few as three parameters closely reproduced 40 years of age-specific cancer incidence data. We recovered trends of H. pylori prevalence in the United States and demonstrated that cohort effects can explain the observed bimodal, age-specific pattern of oral HPV prevalence in men. Our results demonstrate the potential for joint analyses of population-level cancer and risk factor data through mechanistic modeling. This approach can be a first step in systematically testing relationships between exposures and cancer risk when individual-level data is lacking.Significance: Analysis of trends in risk-factor prevalence and cancer incidence can shed light on cancer mechanisms and the way that carcinogen exposure through time shapes the risk of cancer at different ages.Graphical Abstract: http://cancerres.aacrjournals.org/content/canres/78/12/3386/F1.large.jpg Cancer Res; 78(12); 3386-96. ©2018 AACR.

Multisite HPV infections in the United States (NHANES 2003-2014): An overview and synthesis

HPV is the most common sexually transmitted infection in the U.S., infecting both anogenital and oral sites. Nationally representative data are collected through the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES). However, changing designations of HPV genotypes as high or low risk and varying underlying populations as new results are reported have made direct comparison of results difficult. We reanalyzed HPV data from NHANES derived from self-collected cervicovaginal swabs (women ages 18-59, 2003-14), penile swabs (men ages 18-59, 2013-14), and oral rinses (men and women ages 18-69, 2009-14), using consistent populations and definitions across NHANES cycles. These data strengthen our understanding of age trends in HPV prevalence: cervicovaginal prevalence decreases with age, penile prevalence increases with age, and oral prevalence is bimodal but with an earlier first peak in women. There is strong evidence for reduced prevalence of vaccine genotypes (6, 11, 16, 18) in vaccinated men and women (ages 18-24) at both genital (RR 0.2 (0.1-0.3) in women and 0.7 (0.1-5.4) in men) and oral sites (RR 0.1 (0.0-1.3) in women; no infections detected in vaccinated men). A more complete picture of the burden of HPV in the U.S. is emerging, including evidence for reduced HPV genital and oral prevalence in vaccinated individuals.

Mucosal and cutaneous Human Papillomavirus seroprevalence among adults in the prevaccine era in Germany - Results from a nationwide population-based survey

BACKGROUND

Human Papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination of girls was introduced in Germany in 2007. However, data on the distribution of vaccine-relevant HPV types in the general population in Germany in the prevaccine era are limited.

METHODS

Serum samples collected during the German National Health Interview and Examination Survey 1998 (GNHIES98), a nationally representative study including men and women aged 18-79 years, were tested for antibodies to 19 mucosal and cutaneous HPV types. Multivariable regression models were developed to identify associations between demographic and behavioral characteristics and HPV seropositivity.

RESULTS

Of the 6517 serum samples tested, almost a quarter was seropositive for at least one of the nine HPV vaccine types with no clear age-pattern. HPV-6 and HPV-59 were the most common mucosal types, while HPV-1 and HPV-4 were the most common cutaneous HPV types. Factors independently associated with HPV-16 seroprevalence were seropositive to other sexually transmitted infections and lifetime number of sex partners, as well as urbanity (only among females).

CONCLUSIONS

Prevalence of naturally acquired antibodies to HPV types which can be prevented by vaccination is high in both sexes and all age groups. These data can serve as baseline estimates to evaluate the population-level impact of the current vaccination strategy.

Dynamics and Determinants of HPV Infection: The Michigan HPV and Oropharyngeal Cancer (M-HOC) Study

INTRODUCTION

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is the primary cause of cervical and other anogenital cancers and is also associated with head and neck cancers. Incidence of HPV-related oropharyngeal squamous cell cancers (OPSCCs) is increasing, and HPV-related OPSCCs have surpassed cervical cancer as the most common HPV-related cancer in the USA. Given the multisite nature of HPV, there is strong interest in collecting data from both genital and oral sites, as well as associated data on social and sexual behaviours. The overarching goal of this study is to evaluate patterns of oral HPV infection incidence, clearance and persistence and their relationship to sexual behaviour history.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Participants are recruited from two populations: college students at a large public university and general population from the surrounding area. At the first study visit, participants complete a detailed sexual history, health and behaviour questionnaire. Follow-up visits occur every 3-4 months over 3 years, when participants complete an abbreviated questionnaire. All participants provide a saliva sample at each visit, and eligible participants may provide a cervicovaginal self-swab. Genetic material isolated from specimens is tested for 15 high-risk and 3 low-risk HPV types. Statistical analyses will examine outcome variables including HPV prevalence, incidence, persistence and clearance. Logistic regression models will be used to estimate odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals for associations between the outcomes of interest and demographic/behavioural variables collected in the questionnaires. The longitudinal HPV infection data and detailed sexual history data collected in the questionnaires will allow us to develop individual-based network models of HPV transmission and will be used to parameterise multiscale models of HPV-related OPSC carcinogenesis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This study has been approved by the University of Michigan Institutional Review Board. All participants are consented in person by trained study staff. Study results will be disseminated through peer-reviewed publications.

The epidemiology of oral human papillomavirus infection in healthy populations: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a potentially oncogenic sexually transmitted infection. As the incidence of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) caused by oral HPV infections is rising, further investigation into the natural history of such infections is needed. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to synthesize data on the prevalence, incidence, clearance, and persistence of oral HPV infections in healthy individuals. A systematic review of literature published between January 1995 and August 2017 was conducted using Ovid MEDLINE, PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library. Meta-analysis of prevalence and incidence data was conducted. Clearance and persistence data were extracted. Sixty-six studies met the inclusion criteria. Meta-analysis demonstrated an overall prevalence of 7.7% for all types of HPV and 1.4% for high-risk HPV16. The overall incidence was 4.38 cases per 1000 person-months for all HPV types and 0.92 cases per 1000 person-months for HPV16. This systematic review and meta-analysis demonstrated that oral HPV infection has a lower prevalence and incidence than cervicogenital HPV infection in healthy individuals. Nonetheless, oral HPV is still an important concern, given its oncogenicity and the rising incidence of oropharyngeal cancer. Consistency of methodology will allow for better future comparisons, particularly of infection clearance and persistence.

HPV16 DNA and integration in normal and malignant epithelium: implications for the etiology of laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma

Background

Molecular evidence suggests that human papillomavirus (HPV) has a role in the etiology of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma. However, the role of HPV in laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) is unclear.

Patients and methods

We conducted a case–control study using tumor tissue specimens from 300 LSCC patients and vocal cord polyp specimens from 300 cancer-free controls. HPV genotype, HPV16 viral load and viral integration status, and p16 expression were determined.

Results

The prevalence of HPV (all types) was higher in cases than controls [21 (7.0%) versus 10 (3.3%), adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.37, 95% CI 1.08–5.21]. The prevalence of HPV16 was higher in cases than controls [20 (6.7%) versus 8 (2.7%), aOR 2.84, 95% CI 1.21–6.68]. The risk of LSCC associated with HPV16 DNA positivity was even higher in patients aged 55 years or younger (aOR 3.52, 95% CI 1.07–11.54), males (aOR 4.74, 95% CI 1.33–16.90), never-smokers (aOR 5.57, 95% CI 1.41–22.10), and never-drinkers (aOR 3.72, 95% CI 1.09–12.72). HPV DNA was partly or fully integrated in all 20 HPV16-positive cases but was episomal in all 8 HPV16-positive controls; however, the HPV16-positive cases and controls had similar viral loads (P = 0.28). P16 immunostaining was positive in 31 of the 300 cases (10.3%) and negative in all 300 controls.

Conclusion

These results suggest that prior infection with HPV16 may play a role in the etiology of some LSCC. This larger case–control study will offer for the first time the possibility to address in depth the understanding of a tissue-specific role of HPV in laryngeal carcinogenesis. Further studies with larger samples are needed to confirm these findings.

Cervical Cancer Screening and Incidence by Age: Unmet Needs Near and After the Stopping Age for Screening

INTRODUCTION

Leading professional organizations recommend cervical cancer screening for average-risk women aged 21-65 years. For average-risk women aged >65 years, routine screening may be discontinued if "adequate" screening with negative results is documented. Screening is recommended after age 65 years for women who do not meet adequate prior screening criteria or are at special risk.

METHODS

Authors examined the most recent cervical cancer incidence data from two federal cancer surveillance programs for all women by age and race, corrected for hysterectomy status. The 2013 and 2015 National Health Interview Surveys were analyzed in 2016 to examine the proportion of women aged 41-70 years without a hysterectomy who reported that they never had a Pap test or that their most recent Pap test was >5 years ago (not recently screened).

RESULTS

The incidence rate for cervical cancer among older women, corrected for hysterectomy status, did not decline until age ≥85 years. The proportion not recently screened increased with age, from 12.1% for women aged 41-45 years to 18.4% for women aged 61-65 years.

CONCLUSIONS

Even among women within the recommended age range for routine screening, many are not up to date, and a substantial number of women approach the "stopping" age for cervical cancer screening without an adequate prior screening history. Efforts are needed to reach women who have not been adequately screened, including women aged >65 years, to prevent invasive cervical cancer cases and deaths among older women.

Modelling multi-site transmission of the human papillomavirus and its impact on vaccination effectiveness

OBJECTIVE

Previous HPV models have only included genital transmission, when evidence suggests that transmission between several anatomical sites occurs. We compared model predictions of population-level HPV vaccination effectiveness against genital HPV16 infection in women, using a 1) uni-site (genital site), and a 2) multi-site model (genital and one extragenital site).

METHODS

We developed a uni-site and a multi-site deterministic HPV transmission model, assuming natural immunity was either site-specific or systemic. Both models were calibrated to genital HPV16 prevalence (5%-7.5%), whilst the multi-site model was calibrated to HPV16 prevalence representative of oral (0%-1%) and anal (1%-7.5%) sites. For each model, we identified 2500 parameter sets that fit endemic genital and extragenital prevalences within pre-specified target ranges. In the Base-case analysis, vaccination was girls-only with 40% coverage. Vaccine efficacy was 100% for all sites with lifetime protection. The outcome was the relative reduction in genital HPV16 prevalence among women at post-vaccination equilibrium (RRprev). RRprev was stratified by extragenital prevalence pre-vaccination.

RESULTS

Under assumptions of site-specific immunity, RRprev with the multi-site model was generally greater than with the uni-site model. Differences between the uni-site and multi-site models were greater when transmission from the extragenital site to the genital site was high. Under assumptions of systemic immunity, the multi-site and uni-site models yielded similar RRprev in the scenario without immunity after extragenital infection. In the scenario with systemic immunity after extragenital infection, the multi-site model yielded lower predictions of RRprev than the uni-site model.

CONCLUSIONS

Modelling genital-site only transmission may overestimate vaccination impact if extragenital infections contribute to systemic natural immunity or underestimate vaccination impact if a high proportion of genital infections originate from extragenital infections. Under current understanding of heterosexual HPV transmission and immunity, a substantial bias from using uni-site models in predicting vaccination effectiveness against genital HPV infection is unlikely to occur.

Prevalence of Genital Human Papillomavirus Infection and Human Papillomavirus Vaccination Rates Among US Adult Men: National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2013-2014

Importance

Human papillomavirus (HPV) is a common sexually transmitted infection that is a major cause of noncervical anogenital and oropharyngeal cancers. Prophylactic HPV vaccine is available for primary prevention. However, the population prevalence data for male genital HPV infection is not well known, while the HPV vaccination coverage is low in the United States.

Objectives

To estimate the prevalence of genital HPV infection and the HPV vaccination rate in the United States among adult men and to examine potential risk factors for HPV infection.

Design, Setting, and Participants

The National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) samples a representative cross-section of the US population. Men aged 18 to 59 years were examined in mobile examination centers during the NHANES 2013-2014. DNA was extracted from self-collected penile swab specimens, and HPV genotyping was performed by polymerase chain reaction amplification. Demographic and vaccination information was gathered via self-report during home-based standardized interviews. Binary multivariable logistic regression was used to estimate the odds of HPV infection.

Main Outcomes and Measures

The prevalence of genital HPV infection and the HPV vaccination coverage rate among adult men.

Results

During the NHANES 2013-2014, a total of 1868 men aged 18 to 59 years were examined. The overall genital HPV infection prevalence was 45.2% (95% CI, 41.3%-49.3%). The infection prevalence with at least 1 high-risk HPV subtype defined by DNA testing was 25.1% (95% CI, 23.0%-27.3%). In vaccine-eligible men, the prevalence of infection with at least 1 HPV strain targeted by the HPV 4-valent vaccine and HPV 9-valent vaccine was 7.1% (95% CI, 5.1%-9.5%) and 15.4% (95% CI, 11.7%-19.6%), respectively. Among vaccine-eligible men, the HPV vaccination coverage was 10.7% (95% CI, 7.8%-14.6%).

Conclusions and Relevance

Among men aged 18 to 59 years in the United States, the overall prevalence of genital HPV infection was 45.2% (95% CI, 41.3%-49.3%). The overall genital HPV infection prevalence appears to be widespread among all age groups of men, and the HPV vaccination coverage is low.

Age Effects and Temporal Trends in HPV-Related and HPV-Unrelated Oral Cancer in the United States: A Multistage Carcinogenesis Modeling Analysis

Differences in prognosis in HPV-positive and HPV-negative oral (oropharyngeal and oral cavity) squamous cell carcinomas (OSCCs) and increasing incidence of HPV-related cancers have spurred interest in demographic and temporal trends in OSCC incidence. We leverage multistage clonal expansion (MSCE) models coupled with age-period-cohort (APC) epidemiological models to analyze OSCC data in the SEER cancer registry (1973-2012). MSCE models are based on the initiation-promotion-malignant conversion paradigm in carcinogenesis and allow for interpretation of trends in terms of biological mechanisms. APC models seek to differentiate between the temporal effects of age, period, and birth cohort on cancer risk. Previous studies have looked at the effect of period and cohort on tumor initiation, and we extend this to compare model fits of period and cohort effects on each of tumor initiation, promotion, and malignant conversion rates. HPV-related, HPV-unrelated except oral tongue, and HPV-unrelated oral tongue sites are best described by placing period and cohort effects on the initiation rate. HPV-related and non-oral-tongue HPV-unrelated cancers have similar promotion rates, suggesting similar tumorigenesis dynamics once initiated. Estimates of promotion rates at oral tongue sites are lower, corresponding to a longer sojourn time; this finding is consistent with the hypothesis of an etiology distinct from HPV or alcohol and tobacco use. Finally, for the three subsite groups, men have higher initiation rates than women of the same race, and black people have higher promotion than white people of the same sex. These differences explain part of the racial and sex differences in OSCC incidence.