Preventing type 2 diabetes mellitus in Qatar by reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity: mathematical modeling analyses

Mathematical Modelling for Community Based Intervention for Managing Diabetes: A Systematic Literature Review

Diabetes mellitus (DM) poses a significant global health and economic challenge. Effective diabetes management requires a multifaceted approach that combines clinical and community-based interventions. Community-based interventions are critical to address the growing burden of diabetes. Despite numerous independent studies on community-based interventions for T2DM management and mathematical models, there has been no comprehensive review integrating these two domains. This systematic literature review aimed to fill this gap by examining mathematical modelling in the context of community-based interventions for T2DM management. Following the PRISMA guidelines, relevant articles were identified, screened, and assessed for eligibility using the Scopus, ScienceDirect, and PubMed databases. The inclusion criterion was English-language research articles published between 2014 and 2024 that focused on T2DM interventions using mathematical models. Seven articles met the final inclusion criteria and were analysed to answer research questions related to the geographical origin of the data, nature of the intervention, specific mathematical model used, and the main findings of the primary study. This review highlights that mathematical models are critical for optimising community-based interventions, by identifying key risk factors, predicting disease progression, and evaluating the effectiveness of various treatments. By synthesising findings from different geographical and economic contexts, this review highlights the importance of culturally and contextually relevant strategies for diabetes management. The integration of robust mathematical models with community-based approaches promises to develop more effective evidence-based strategies for diabetes management, particularly in resource-limited settings.

Impact of mitigating obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity on type 2 diabetes mellitus burden in Oman: insights from mathematical modeling

INTRODUCTION

To estimate the impact of reducing obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity (PIA) prevalence, and of introducing physical activity (PA) as an explicit intervention, on the prevalence, incidence, and mortality of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in Oman.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

A deterministic population-level mathematical model was employed to investigate the impact of different scenarios for reducing T2DM risk factors on T2DM epidemiology. The model was stratified by sex, age group, risk factor status, T2DM status, and intervention status and parameterized with nationally representative data. Intervention scenarios were calculated and compared with a baseline (no-intervention) scenario for changes in T2DM prevalence, incidence, and mortality among adult Omanis between 2020 and 2050.

RESULTS

In the no-intervention scenario, T2DM prevalence increased from 15.2% in 2020 to 23.8% in 2050. Achieving the goals of halting the rise of obesity, reducing smoking by 30%, and reducing PIA by 10% as outlined in the WHO's Global Action Plan for Non-communicable Diseases (implemented between 2020 and 2030 and then maintained between 2031 and 2050) would reduce T2DM prevalence by 32.2%, cumulative incidence by 31.3%, and related deaths by 19.3% by 2050. Halting the rise of or reducing obesity prevalence by 10%-50% would reduce T2DM prevalence by 33.0%-51.3%, cumulative incidence by 31.9%-53.0%, and related deaths by 19.5%-35.6%. Reducing smoking or PIA prevalence by 10%-50% would lead to smaller reductions of less than 5% in T2DM prevalence, cumulative incidence, and related deaths. Introducing PA with varying intensities at a 25% coverage would reduce T2DM prevalence by 4.9%-14.1%, cumulative incidence by 4.8%-13.8%, and related deaths by 3.4%-9.6% by 2050.

CONCLUSIONS

Intervention-for-prevention efforts targeting obesity reduction and introducing PA could result in major reductions in the T2DM burden. Prioritizing such interventions could alleviate the burden of T2DM in Oman and other countries with similarly high T2DM and obesity burdens.

A systematic review on the level of risk perception of diabetes mellitus: The role of environmental factor

BACKGROUND

Risk perception plays important role in motivating preventive health behaviours. The objective of this systematic review was to explore the level of diabetes risk perception among individuals with and without apparent risk for diabetes, and to consider the effect of environmental factors on the level of diabetes risk perception.

METHODS

This systematic review was reported according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. The literature search was carried out through PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus. Original articles written in English and published between 2013 and 2023 were considered. Study quality was appraised using the Mixed Methods Appraisal Tool. Narrative synthesis was undertaken due to methodological heterogeneity in the included studies.

RESULTS

A total of 13 cross-sectional studies, two randomized controlled trials, two cohort studies, two mixed methods studies and one quasi-experiment with a control group were included. An overall low level of diabetes risk perception was reported particularly in those without apparent risk for diabetes. The 20 included studies reported widely varied measures for calculating diabetes risk perception. The influence of environmental factors on the risk perception of diabetes was highlighted.

LIMITATIONS

The use of study-specific and non-validated measures in the included studies weakens the authors' ability to compare across studies. The role of language and publication bias within this systematic review should be acknowledged as we included only English-language studies published in peer-reviewed journals. Another limitation is the exclusion of dimensions of risk perception such as optimistic bias as search terms.

CONCLUSION

The overall low risk perception of diabetes calls for urgent need of public health interventions to increase the risk perception of diabetes. In the future, researchers should ensure the validity and reliability of the measures being used. The influence of environmental factors on the diabetes risk perception indicates that diabetes preventive interventions targeting environmental factors may be effective in increasing the risk perception of diabetes.

Predicting the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil: a modeling study

Aims

We adopted a modeling approach to predict the likely future prevalence of type 2 diabetes, taking into account demographic changes and trends in obesity and smoking in Brazil. We then used the model to estimate the likely future impact of different policy scenarios, such as policies to reduce obesity.

Methods

The IMPACT TYPE 2 DIABETES model uses a Markov approach to integrate population, obesity, and smoking trends to estimate future type 2 diabetes prevalence. We developed a model for the Brazilian population from 2006 to 2036. Data on the Brazilian population in relation to sex and age were collected from the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics, and data on the prevalence of type 2 diabetes, obesity, and smoking were collected from the Surveillance of Risk and Protection Factors for Chronic Diseases by Telephone Survey (VIGITEL).

Results

The observed prevalence of type 2 diabetes among Brazilians aged over 25 years was 10.8% (5.2-14.3%) in 2006, increasing to 13.7% (6.9-18.4%) in 2020. Between 2006 and 2020, the observed prevalence in men increased from 11.0 to 19.1% and women from 10.6 to 21.3%. The model forecasts a dramatic rise in prevalence by 2036 (27.0% overall, 17.1% in men and 35.9% in women). However, if obesity prevalence declines by 1% per year from 2020 to 2036 (Scenario 1), the prevalence of diabetes decreases from 26.3 to 23.7, which represents approximately a 10.0% drop in 16 years. If obesity declined by 5% per year in 16 years as an optimistic target (Scenario 2), the prevalence of diabetes decreased from 26.3 to 21.2, representing a 19.4% drop in diabetes prevalence.

Conclusion

The model predicts an increase in the prevalence of type 2 diabetes in Brazil. Even with ambitious targets to reduce obesity prevalence, type 2 diabetes in Brazil will continue to have a large impact on Brazilian public health.

Societal health and economic burden of cardiovascular diseases in the population with type 2 diabetes in Qatar. A 10-year forecasting model

AIMS

To predict the future health and economic burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Qatar.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A dynamic multistate model was designed to simulate the progression of fatal and non-fatal CVD events among people with T2D in Qatar aged 40-79 years. First CVD events [i.e. myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke] were calculated via the 2013 Pooled Cohort Equation, while recurrent CVD events were sourced from the REACH registry. Key model outcomes were fatal and non-fatal MI and stroke, years of life lived, quality-adjusted life years, total direct medical costs and total productivity loss costs. Utility and cost model inputs were drawn from published sources. The model adopted a Qatari societal perspective. Sensitivity analyses were performed to test the robustness of estimates.

RESULTS

Over 10 years among people with T2D, model estimates 108 195 [95% uncertainty interval (UI) 104 249-112 172] non-fatal MIs, 62 366 (95% UI 60 283-65 520) non-fatal strokes and 14 612 (95% UI 14 472-14 744) CVD deaths. The T2D population accrued 4 786 605 (95% UI 4 743 454, 4 858 705) total years of life lived and 3 781 833 (95% UI 3 724 718-3 830 669) total quality-adjusted life years. Direct costs accounted for 57.85% of the total costs, with a projection of QAR41.60 billion (US$11.40 billion) [95% UI 7.53-147.40 billion (US$2.06-40.38 billion)], while the total indirect costs were expected to exceed QAR30.31 billion (US$8.30 billion) [95% UI 1.07-162.60 billion (US$292.05 million-44.55 billion)].

CONCLUSIONS

The findings suggest a significant economic and health burden of CVD among people with T2D in Qatar and highlight the need for more enhanced preventive strategies targeting this population group.

Epidemiological impact of public health interventions against diabetes in Qatar: mathematical modeling analyses

Aims

To predict the epidemiological impact of specific, and primarily structural public health interventions that address lifestyle, dietary, and commuting behaviors of Qataris as well as subsidies and legislation to reduce type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) burden among Qataris.

Methods

A deterministic population-based mathematical model was used to investigate the impact of public health interventions on the epidemiology of T2DM among Qataris aged 20-79 years, which is the age range typically used by the International Diabetes Federation for adults. The study evaluated the impact of interventions up to 2050, a three-decade time horizon, to allow for the long-term effects of different types of interventions to materialize. The impact of each intervention was evaluated by comparing the predicted T2DM incidence and prevalence with the intervention to a counterfactual scenario without intervention. The model was parameterized using representative data and stratified by sex, age, T2DM risk factors, T2DM status, and intervention status.

Results

All intervention scenarios had an appreciable impact on reducing T2DM incidence and prevalence. A lifestyle management intervention approach, specifically applied to those who are categorized as obese and ≥35 years old, averted 9.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. An active commuting intervention approach, specifically increasing cycling and walking, averted 8.5% of new T2DM cases by 2050. Enhancing consumption of healthy diets including fruits and vegetables, specifically a workplace intervention involving dietary modifications and an educational intervention, averted 23.2% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A subsidy and legislative intervention approach, implementing subsidies on fruits and vegetables and taxation on sugar-sweetened beverages, averted 7.4% of new T2DM cases by 2050. A least to most optimistic combination of interventions averted 22.8-46.9% of new T2DM cases by 2050, respectively.

Conclusions

Implementing a combination of individual-level and structural public health interventions is critical to prevent T2DM onset and to slow the growing T2DM epidemic in Qatar.

All-cause and COVID-19 mortality in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic

OBJECTIVE

To investigate all-cause mortality, COVID-19 mortality and all-cause non-COVID-19 mortality in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

A national, retrospective cohort analysis and national, matched, retrospective cohort studies were conducted between 5 February 2020 and 19 September 2022.

RESULTS

There were 5025 deaths during a follow-up time of 5 247 220 person-years, of which 675 were COVID-19 related. Incidence rates were 0.96 (95% CI 0.93 to 0.98) per 1000 person-years for all-cause mortality, 0.13 (95% CI 0.12 to 0.14) per 1000 person-years for COVID-19 mortality and 0.83 (95% CI 0.80 to 0.85) per 1000 person-years for all-cause non-COVID-19 mortality. Adjusted HR, comparing all-cause non-COVID-19 mortality relative to Qataris, was lowest for Indians at 0.38 (95% CI 0.32 to 0.44), highest for Filipinos at 0.56 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.69) and was 0.51 (95% CI 0.45 to 0.58) for craft and manual workers (CMWs). Adjusted HR, comparing COVID-19 mortality relative to Qataris, was lowest for Indians at 1.54 (95% CI 0.97 to 2.44), highest for Nepalese at 5.34 (95% CI 1.56 to 18.34) and was 1.86 (95% CI 1.32 to 2.60) for CMWs. Incidence rate of all-cause mortality for each nationality group was lower than the crude death rate in the country of origin.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of non-COVID-19 death was low and was lowest among CMWs, perhaps reflecting the healthy worker effect. Risk of COVID-19 death was also low, but was highest among CMWs, largely reflecting higher exposure during first epidemic wave, before advent of effective COVID-19 treatments and vaccines.

Time-Series Forecasting of Hemodialysis Population in the State of Qatar by 2030

BACKGROUND

There are few statistics on dialysis-dependent individuals with end-stage kidney disease (ESKD) in Qatar. Having access to this information can aid in better understanding the dialysis development model, aiding higher-level services in future planning. In order to give data for creating preventive efforts, we thus propose a time-series with a definitive endogenous model to predict ESKD patients requiring dialysis.

METHODS

In this study, we used four mathematical equations linear, exponential, logarithmic decimal, and polynomial regression, to make predictions using historical data from 2012 to 2021. These equations were evaluated based on time-series analysis, and their prediction performance was assessed using the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), coefficient of determination (R²), and mean absolute deviation (MAD). Because it remained largely steady for the population at risk of ESKD in this investigation, we did not consider the population growth factor to be changeable. (FIFA World Cup 2022 preparation workforce associated growth was in healthy and young workers that did not influence ESKD prevalence).

RESULT

The polynomial has a high R² of 0.99 and is consequently the best match for the prevalence dialysis data, according to numerical findings. Thus, the MAPE is 2.28, and the MAD is 9.87%, revealing a small prediction error with good accuracy and variability. The polynomial algorithm is the simplest and best-calculated projection model, according to these results. The number of dialysis patients in Qatar is anticipated to increase to 1037 (95% CI, 974-1126) in 2022, 1245 (95% CI, 911-1518) in 2025, and 1611 (95% CI, 1378-1954) in 2030, with a 5.67% average yearly percentage change between 2022 and 2030.

CONCLUSION

Our research offers straightforward and precise mathematical models for predicting the number of patients in Qatar who will require dialysis in the future. We discovered that the polynomial technique outperformed other methods. Future planning for the need for dialysis services can benefit from this forecasting.

Association Between Serum Bicarbonate Levels and Prediabetes and Subclinical Inflammation in Young Healthy Adults: A Cross-sectional Study

PURPOSE

Low bicarbonate, a hallmark of metabolic acidosis is associated with various diseases. This study investigated associations between bicarbonate levels with prediabetes and subclinical inflammation among healthy young adults in Qatar.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional study was carried out with 825 participants aged 18-40 years, devoid of any known comorbidities, using data from the Qatar Biobank. For each participant, blood samples were taken for measurements of bicarbonate, prediabetes, and subclinical inflammation biomarkers. Prediabetes was defined using HbA1c between 5.7 and 6.4% and subclinical inflammation was defined using monocyte to high density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol ratio (MHR). Associations between bicarbonate levels and the outcomes were analyzed using multivariable linear and logistic regression and then stratified by gender.

RESULTS

A total of 825 participants with mean age 29.2 years (5.9) of which 365 (44.2%) were males. After multivariable logistic regression, each unit increase in serum bicarbonate was associated with a 17% decreased risk of prediabetes (OR: 0.83, 95%CI: 0.70-0.99, p=0.034), in males but no association was observed for females. Similarly, after multivariable linear regression, a unit increase in serum bicarbonate was associated with a 0.18 unit decrease in MHR (beta -0.18, 95%CI: -0.29, -0.07, p=0.002), again with no association observed in females.

CONCLUSION

In a healthy young adult population, higher serum bicarbonate levels were inversely associated with both prediabetes and subclinical inflammation in males, but not in females.

Impact of trends and gender disparity in obesity on future type 2 diabetes in Turkey: a mathematical modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Using a previously developed and validated mathematical model, we predicted future prevalence of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and major modifiable risk factors (obesity, physical inactivity and smoking) stratified by age and sex in Turkey up to the year 2050.

METHODS

Our deterministic compartmental model fitted nationally representative demographic and risk factor data simultaneously for Turkish adults (aged 20-79) between 1997 and 2017, then estimated future trends. Our novel approach explored the impact of future obesity trends on these projections, specifically modelling (1) a gradual fall in obesity in women after the year 2020 until it equalled the age-specific levels seen in men and (2) cessation of the rise in obesity after 2020.

RESULTS

T2DM prevalence is projected to rise from an estimated 14.0% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 12.8% to 16.0%) in 2020 to 18.4% (95% UI 16.9% to 20.9%) by 2050; 19.7% in women and 17.2% in men by 2050; reflecting high levels of obesity (39.7% for women and 22.0% for men in 2050). Overall, T2DM prevalence could be reduced by about 4% if obesity stopped rising after 2020 or by 12% (22% in women) if obesity prevalence among women could be lowered to equal that of men. The higher age-specific obesity prevalence among women resulted in 2 076 040 additional women developing T2DM by the year 2050.

CONCLUSION

T2DM is common in Turkey and will remain so. Interventions and policies targeting the high burden of obesity (and low physical activity levels), particularly in women, could significantly impact future disease burdens.

Type 2 diabetes epidemic and key risk factors in Qatar: a mathematical modeling analysis

INTRODUCTION

We aimed to characterize and forecast type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) disease burden between 2021 and 2050 in Qatar where 89% of the population comprises expatriates from over 150 countries.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

An age-structured mathematical model was used to forecast T2DM burden and the impact of key risk factors (obesity, smoking, and physical inactivity). The model was parametrized using data from T2DM natural history studies, Qatar's 2012 STEPwise survey, the Global Health Observatory, and the International Diabetes Federation Diabetes Atlas, among other data sources.

RESULTS

Between 2021 and 2050, T2DM prevalence increased from 7.0% to 14.0%, the number of people living with T2DM increased from 170 057 to 596 862, and the annual number of new T2DM cases increased from 25 007 to 45 155 among those 20-79 years of age living in Qatar. Obesity prevalence increased from 8.2% to 12.5%, smoking declined from 28.3% to 26.9%, and physical inactivity increased from 23.1% to 26.8%. The proportion of incident T2DM cases attributed to obesity increased from 21.9% to 29.9%, while the contribution of smoking and physical inactivity decreased from 7.1% to 6.0% and from 7.3% to 7.2%, respectively. The results showed substantial variability across various nationality groups residing in Qatar-for example, in Qataris and Egyptians, the T2DM burden was mainly due to obesity, while in other nationality groups, it appeared to be multifactorial.

CONCLUSIONS

T2DM prevalence and incidence in Qatar were forecasted to increase sharply by 2050, highlighting the rapidly growing need of healthcare resources to address the disease burden. T2DM epidemiology varied between nationality groups, stressing the need for prevention and treatment intervention strategies tailored to each nationality.

Unhealthy Dietary Habits and Obesity: The Major Risk Factors Beyond Non-Communicable Diseases in the Eastern Mediterranean Region

There are 22 countries in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) expanding from Morocco in the west to Pakistan and Afghanistan in the east, containing a population of 725,721 million in 2020. In the previous 30 years, the illness burden in the EMR has transmitted from communicable diseases to non-communicable diseases such as diabetes, cardiovascular diseases, and cancer. In 2019, cardiovascular mortality in the EMR was mostly attributed to ischemic heart disease, the first reason for mortality in 19 countries in the region. Stroke was the second reason for death in nine countries followed by diabetes, which was ranked as the second reason for death in two countries. The prominent nutrition-related NCDs risk factors in EMR include obesity, hypertension, high fasting plasma glucose, and upregulated unhealthy diet consumption. Most of the EMR population are unaware of their NCDs risk factor status. These risk factors, even if treated, are often poorly controlled, therefore, inhibiting their existence by changing the lifestyle to proper dietary habits and sufficient physical activity is mandatory. In this review, the epidemiology and nutrition-related risk factors of NCDs in the EMR will be discussed and illustrated, aiming to scale up action and support decision-makers in implementing cost effective strategies to address obesity and NCDs prevention and management in the region.

Association between waterpipe smoking and obesity: Population-based study in Qatar

INTRODUCTION

Over the past decade obesity prevalence has been increasing rapidly in the Gulf region (GR) including Qatar, becoming one of the major health issues in the region. Concomitantly, waterpipe (WP) smoking is increasing worldwide especially in the GR, and although the effect of cigarette smoking on body weight is well-established, studies indicating an association between WP smoking and obesity are scarce. Thus, we explored the association between WP smoking and obesity in comparison with cigarette smokers and healthy population in Qatar.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional study using data from Qatar Biobank and analyzed anthropometric measurements among 879 adults (aged 18-65 years) that included WP smokers, cigarette smokers, dual smokers and never smokers. Body composition was measured using bioelectrical impedance analysis and reported as lean mass, fat mass, and body fat percentage.

RESULTS

Overall, 12% (n=108) were WP smokers, 22% (n=196) were cigarette smokers, 9% (n=77) smoked both WP and cigarettes and 57% (n=498) were never smokers. Age, sex, history of diabetes, and hypertension, in addition to nationality were considered as confounding factors. Our analysis revealed that WP smokers had a significantly higher BMI (kg/m2) and fat mass when compared with cigarette smokers (p<0.05). Moreover, compared to cigarette smoking, WP smoking had a higher significant effect on BMI (β=3.8, SE=0.38; and β=5.5, SE=0.46; respectively), and fat mass (β=5.1, SE=0.79; and β=9.0, SE=0.97; respectively). However, WP users were similar to never-smokers in terms of body fat percent.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data indicate that compared to never smokers, daily WP users have higher BMI and fat mass, and are likely to be obese.

Characterizing epidemiology of prediabetes, diabetes, and hypertension in Qataris: A cross-sectional study

OBJECTIVES

To characterize the epidemiologic profiles of prediabetes mellitus (preDM), diabetes mellitus (DM), and hypertension (HTN) in Qataris using the nationally representative 2012 Qatar STEPwise Survey.

METHODS

A secondary data analysis of a cross-sectional survey that included 2,497 Qatari nationals aged 18-64 years. Descriptive and analytical statistical analyses were conducted.

RESULTS

Prevalence of preDM, DM, and HTN in Qataris aged 18-64 years was 11.9% (95% confidence interval [CI] 9.6%-14.7%), 10.4% (95% CI 8.4%-12.9%), and 32.9% (95% CI 30.4%-35.6%), respectively. Age was the common factor associated with the three conditions. Adjusted analyses showed that unhealthy diet (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.84, 95% CI 1.01-3.36) was significantly associated with preDM; that physical inactivity (aOR = 1.66, 95% CI 1.12-2.46), central obesity (aOR = 2.08, 95% CI 1.02-4.26), and HTN (aOR = 2.18, 95% CI 1.40-3.38) were significantly associated with DM; and that DM (aOR = 2.07, 95% CI 1.34-3.22) was significantly associated with HTN. Population attributable fraction of preDM associated with unhealthy diet was 7.7%; of DM associated with physical inactivity, central obesity, and HTN, respectively, was 14.9%, 39.8%, and 17.5%; and of HTN associated with DM was 3.0%.

CONCLUSIONS

One in five Qataris is living with either preDM or DM, and one in three is living with HTN, conditions that were found to be primarily driven by lifestyle factors. Prevention, control, and management of these conditions should be a national priority to reduce their disease burden and associated disease sequelae.

Impact of Policies in Nutrition and Physical Activity on Diabetes and Its Risk Factors in the 28 Member States of the European Union

Since healthy eating and physically active lifestyles can reduce diabetes mellitus (DM) risk, these are often addressed by population-based interventions aiming to prevent DM. Our study examined the impact of nutritional and physical activity policies, national diabetes plans and national diabetes registers contribute to lower prevalence of DM in individuals in the member states of the European Union (EU), taking into account the demographic and socioeconomic status as well as lifestyle choices. Datasets on policy actions, plans and registers were retrieved from the World Cancer Research Fund International's NOURISHING and MOVING policy databases and the European Coalition for Diabetes report. Individual-based data on DM, socioeconomic status and healthy behavior indicators were obtained via the European Health Interview Survey, 2014. Our results showed variation in types and numbers of implemented policies within the member states, additionally, the higher number of these actions were not associated with lower DM prevalence. Only weak correlation between the prevalence of DM and preventive policies was found. Thus, undoubtedly policies have an impact on reducing the prevalence of DM, its increasing burden could not be reversed which underlines the need for applying a network of preventive policies.

First-line Treatment with Empagliflozin and Metformin Combination Versus Standard Care for Patients with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and Cardiovascular Disease in Qatar. A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

Sodium-glucose cotransporter 2 (SGLT2) inhibitors have shown to reduce cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM), but they are currently not used as first-line therapy in clinical practice. This study sought to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of first-line empagliflozin plus standard care for patients with newly diagnosed T2DM and existing cardiovascular disease (CVD). A decision-analytic Markov model with one-year cycles and a lifetime time horizon was developed from the perspective of the Qatari healthcare system to compare first-line empagliflozin combined with metformin versus metformin monotherapy for patients aged 50 to 79 years with T2DM and existing CVD. Two health states were considered: 'Alive with CVD and T2DM' and 'Dead'. Patients could experience non-fatal myocardial infarction, non-fatal stroke, hospitalization for heart failure, hospitalization for unstable angina, and cardiovascular or non-cardiovascular death. Model inputs were ascertained from published and publicly available sources in Qatar. Costs and outcomes were discounted at 3% per annum. Sensitivity analyses were conducted to evaluate parameter uncertainty. The model predicted that adding empagliflozin to current standard care led to additional 1.9 years of life saved (YoLS) and 1.5 quality-adjusted life year (QALYs) per person, and an incremental cost of QAR 56,869 (USD 15,619), which equated to an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of QAR 30,675 (USD 8,425) per YoLS and QAR 39,245 (USD 10,779) per QALY. Sensitivity analyses showed the findings to be robust. First-line empagliflozin combined with metformin appears to be a cost-effective therapeutic option for patients with T2DM and CVD.

Physical Activity, Screen-Based Sedentary Behavior and Physical Fitness in Chinese Adolescents: A Cross-Sectional Study

Purpose: The aim of this study is to explore the relationship between screen-based sedentary behavior, physical activity and physical fitness among Chinese adolescents. Methods: This study randomly selected adolescents from 10 administrative districts in Shandong, China. The data gathering tools for demographic and other characteristics (gender, age, body mass index and socioeconomic status), PA (PAQ-A) and screen-based sedentary behavior (YRBSS) and physical fitness (NSPFH 2014) were utilized in this study. Statistical analysis was performed by T-test, chi-square test and multiple linear regression. Results: 10,002 adolescents (14.39 years ± 1.79) participated in the study. The results demonstrated that BMI and high TV viewing time had a significant negative correlation with physical fitness, but there was no association between the amount of time spent playing computer/video games and physical fitness among adolescents. High SES and physical activity in leisure time five or more times per week were significantly associated with most dimensions of physical fitness. Conclusions: the results suggest that we not only need to focus on adolescent risk behavior associated with low socioeconomic status and obesity, but also enforce physical activity and reduce sedentary television-watching behavior, which will be crucial pathways and strategies to improve the physical fitness of Chinese adolescents.

Potential causes of male and female infertility in Qatar

A steady decline in the fertility rate has been observed in Qatar during the past fifty years. Therefore, infertility is considered a national priority in Qatar, a pronatalist society. This review article summarises the potential causes of infertility that are particularly prevalent in the Qatari population. The high rate of consanguinity leading to genetic abnormalities, the high incidence of metabolic disease, environmental contamination due to the rapid urbanization and oil and natural gas extraction procedures are discussed. In addition, the particular lifestyle of the Qatari population and the influence of religion and culture on sexual and reproductive behavior in an Arab/Islamic society are considered. The active response of the state of Qatar in implementing ways to mitigate the effects of these factors to protect fertility are also presented.