Exploring the Relationship Between Patient Age and Cancer-Specific Survival in Papillary Thyroid Cancer: Rethinking Current Staging Systems

Radioactive iodine refractoriness in Middle Eastern differentiated thyroid cancer: clinical outcome and risk factor analysis

Background

Radioactive iodine refractory differentiated thyroid cancer (RAIR-DTC) has received increasing attention due to its poor prognosis. However, outcomes may vary among patients with RAIR-DTC. The role of clinico-pathological and molecular prognostic factors in survival remains controversial, resulting in difficulty in selecting patients for new targeted therapies. We assessed mortality rate and DTC-specific survival in Middle Eastern RAIR-DTC to identify prognostic factors associated with survival.

Methods

This single center, retrospective study enrolled 268 patients with RAIR-DTC. Mortality rate and DTC-specific survival were analyzed to identify prognostic factors related to survival. Univariate and multivariate analysis were performed using Cox proportional hazards model.

Results

Of the 268 cases of RAIR-DTC, 40.3% (108/268) had absent 131I uptake (either on diagnostic or post-therapy whole body scan), 15.3% (41/268) had progressive disease (PD) despite 131I, 7.5% (20/268) had persistent disease despite cumulative activity of I131 of >600 mCi and 36.9% (n=99/268) developed distant metastasis. On multivariate analysis, age (more than 45 years), presence of metastatic disease and tumors harboring telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) promoter mutations were independent prognostic factors for poor DTC-specific survival. Subjects were divided into 3 groups according to the number of risk factors; low risk (no risk factors); intermediate (≤ 2 risk factors); and high risk (all the 3 risk factors). Ten-year DTC-specific survival rates in low, intermediate and high-risk groups were 100.0%, 92.9% and 53.6%, respectively.

Conclusions

The contribution of age greater than 45 years to RAIR-DTC mortality is impactful. Older age, presence of distant metastasis and TERT mutations could be used as early predictors of RAIR-DTC cases. The identification of prognostic factors for poor survival in RAIR-DTC may improve the selection of patients for more personalized surveillance and therapeutic modalities.

Feasibility, Tolerability, and Effectiveness of Transbronchial Interventions in Elderly Patients With Malignant Central Airway Obstruction: A Retrospective Single-institution Study

BACKGROUND

In elderly patients with malignant central airway obstruction (MCAO), the treating physicians often hesitate to undertake transbronchial interventions (TBIs) as a palliative procedure in view of the advanced age of the patients.

METHODS

We conducted this retrospective study to evaluate the differences in the feasibility, tolerability, and effectiveness of TBIs between elderly (aged 75 years old or above; elderly group; n=27) and nonelderly (aged below 75 years old; nonelderly group; n=50) patients with MCAO. The primary endpoint was the incidence of complications during (within 24 hours) and after (>24 hours) TBIs.

RESULTS

The mean age of the patients was 81 years in the elderly group and 61 years in the nonelderly group. The complications encountered during/after TBI included endobronchial bleeding or hypoxemia requiring intubation occurring during the TBIs, and bacterial pneumonia, airway reocclusion, and stent migration occurring after the TBIs, although there was no difference in the frequency of complications during/after the TBIs between the elderly group and nonelderly group (26% vs. 30%, P =0.706). There was no difference in the percentage of patients in whom successful airway recanalization was achieved by TBI (93% vs. 80%, P =0.197), the percentage of patients who showed symptomatic improvement after the TBIs (67% vs. 76%, P =0.380) and the OS after the TBIs (6.1 vs. 7.3 months, P =0.704) between the 2 groups.

CONCLUSION

TBIs can be undertaken without hesitation as a palliative procedure in elderly patients with MCAO.

Novel molecular typing reveals the risk of recurrence in patients with early-stage papillary thyroid cancer

BACKGROUND

Papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) is an indolent disease with a favorable prognosis but characterized by a high recurrence rate. We aimed to improve precise stratification of recurrence risk in PTC patients with early stage using multi-gene signatures.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

The present study was performed using data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and multi-center datasets. Unsupervised consensus clustering was used to obtain the optimal molecular subtypes and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analysis was performed to identify potential genes for the construction of recurrence signature. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and the log-rank test was used to detect survival differences. Harrells concordance index (C-index) was used to assess the performance of the DNA damage repair (DDR) recurrence signature.

RESULTS

Through screening 8 candidate gene sets, the entire cohort was successfully stratified into two recurrence-related molecular subtypes based on DDR genes: DDR-high subtype and DDR-low subtype. The recurrence rate of DDR-high subtype was significantly lower than DDR-low subtype [HR = 0.288 (95%CI, 0.084-0.986), P = 0.047]. Further, a two-gene DDR recurrence signature was constructed, including PER1 and EME2. The high-risk group showed a significantly worse recurrence-free survival (RFS) than the low-risk group [HR = 10.647 (95%CI, 1.363-83.197), P = 0.024]. The multi-center data demonstrated that proportion of patients with low expression of PER1 and EME2 was higher in the recurrence group than those in the non-recurrence group.

CONCLUSIONS

These findings could help accurately and reliably identify PTC patients with high risk of recurrence so that they could receive more radical and aggressive treatment strategies and more rigorous surveillance practices.

Age and BRAFV600E Mutation Stratified Patients with Cytologically Benign Thyroid Nodules

Purpose

Our objective was to evaluate the diagnostic performance of BRAFV600E mutation for malignant, and to identify clinical characteristics associated with positive BRAFV600E mutation in low-risk cytological and ultrasound diagnostic thyroid nodules. This aims to identify patients who may benefit from BRAFV600E mutation testing and subsequent surgical intervention.

Patients and Methods

We analysis the clinical characteristics correlated with BRAFV600E mutation in our detection cohort, including 204 patients with 217 thyroid nodules, and separate analyses were performed in 103 thyroid nodules with benign cytological result. Signaling pathway and immune response associated with age and BRAFV600E mutation status were also evaluated in Asian patients with thyroid cancer from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) dataset.

Results

The positive BRAFV600E mutation was significantly associated with higher Ultrasound (US) classification (p<0.001) and fine-needle aspiration (FNA) categories (p<0.001). BRAFV600E mutation as a risk factor for malignancy, showing the optimal diagnostic efficacy for malignancy combined with FNA categories, with the AUC was 0.923. Otherwise, BRAFV600E mutation is a risk factor in screening malignancy in low-risk FNA and US classification, which is significant correlation with patients age. Patients over 50 years old exhibiting a higher percentage of positive BRAFV600E mutation when both ultrasound and FNA results indicate benign conditions, with higher risk of malignancy.

Conclusion

BRAFV600E mutation is an accurate adjunctive diagnostic marker on FNA to screen malignancy. In low risk of both ultrasound and FNA results, the positive BRAFV600E was significant increased in patients over 50 years old, which have higher risk of malignancy. Thus, the BRAFV600E mutation detection and further surgery should be strengthened in older patients with benign cytological and US results thyroid nodules.

BRAFV600E Positivity-Dependent Effect of Age on Papillary Thyroid Cancer Recurrence Risk

BRAFV600E positivity is associated with increased aggressiveness of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC), and age is an important prognostic factor. However, the association between age and BRAFV600E positivity and the recurrence risk has not been investigated. This study aimed to investigate the impact of age on recurrence between patients with BRAFV600E-positive and -negative PTC. Patients with PTC who underwent initial thyroid surgery between January 2010 and December 2018 at Seoul St. Mary's Hospital (Seoul, Republic of Korea) were retrospectively reviewed. The BRAFV600E-positive (n = 1768) and BRAFV600E-negative groups (n = 428) were divided into two subgroups: younger (<35 years) and older groups (≥55 years). In the BRAFV600E-positive group, the younger group exhibited higher lymphatic and vascular invasion rates, more positive lymph nodes, higher lymph node ratios, and higher recurrence rates than the older group (5.9% vs. 2.1%). Multivariate analysis revealed that age, lymphatic invasion, and N category were significant risk factors in the BRAFV600E-positive group. In the BRAFV600E-positive group, the younger group had a higher recurrence risk than the older group (OR, 2.528; 95% confidence interval, 1.443-4.430; p = 0.001). In the BRAFV600E-negative group, age had no impact on recurrence risk. These results contribute to tailored treatment strategies and informed patient management.

Comparison of Diagnostic Values of ACR TI-RADS versus C-TIRADS Scoring and Classification Systems for the Elderly Thyroid Cancers

Purpose

To compare the diagnostic value of the Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (TI-RADS) of the American College of Radiology (ACR) versus the Chinese Thyroid Imaging Reporting and Data System (C-TIRADS) scoring and classification system for elderly thyroid cancers.

Patients and Methods

A total of 512 nodules from 465 patients aged ≥60 with surgical pathology-proven thyroid nodules were enrolled in our study. The ultrasound features of thyroid nodules were independently evaluated by the ACR TI-RADS and C-TIRADS classification systems, and the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was plotted. The optimal cut-off values of the ACR TI-RADS and C-TIRADS scoring and classification systems for diagnosing elderly thyroid nodules were estimated, and the diagnostic efficacy was analyzed.

Results

The ACR TI-RADS and C-TIRADS scores and classifications of thyroid cancers were both higher than benign nodules (both P < 0.05). The area under the curve (AUC) of ACR TI-RADS and C-TIRADS scoring and classification systems were 0.861, 0.897, 0.879, and 0.900, respectively, and the AUC of the scoring system was greater than the classification system for both criteria. When the Youden index was the highest, the sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) of the ACR TI-RADS scoring and classification systems were consistent, ie, they were 89.66%, 41.70%, 89.93%, and 59.00%, respectively; the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of the C-TIRADS scoring and classification systems were also consistent, ie, they were 88.71%, 44.26%, 90.23%, 59.69%, respectively. The diagnostic efficacy between the two systems was not statistically significant.

Conclusion

ACR TI-RADS and C-TIRADS systems had relatively high diagnostic efficacy for elderly thyroid cancer. The diagnostic efficiency of the scoring systems of ACR TI-RADS and C-TIRADS were higher than the classification systems. In addition, the two systems had high clinical practical values, while there is still a significant risk of missed diagnosis.

Predicting Severe Complications from Cytoreductive Surgery with Hyperthermic Intraperitoneal Chemotherapy: A Data-Driven, Machine Learning Approach to Augment Clinical Judgment

BACKGROUND

CRS-HIPEC provides oncologic benefit in well-selected patients with peritoneal carcinomatosis; however, it is a morbid procedure. Decision tools for preoperative patient selection are limited. We developed a risk score to predict severity of 90 day complications for cytoreductive surgery with hyperthermic intraperitoneal chemotherapy (CRS-HIPEC).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Adults who underwent CRS-HIPEC at the University of Pittsburgh Medical Center (March 2001-April 2020) were analyzed as part of this study. Primary endpoint was severe complications within 90 days following CRS-HIPEC, defined using Comprehensive Complication Index (CCI) scores as a dichotomous (determined using restricted cubic splines) and continuous variable. Data were divided into training and test sets. Several machine learning and traditional algorithms were considered.

RESULTS

For the 1959 CRS-HIPEC procedures included, CCI ranged from 0 to 100 (median 32.0). Adjusted restricted cubic splines model defined severe complications as CCI > 61. A minimum of 20 variables achieved optimal performance of any of the models. Linear regression achieved the highest area under the receiving operator characteristic curve (AUC, 0.74) and outperformed the NSQIP Surgical Risk calculator (AUC 0.80 vs. 0.66). Factors most positively associated with severe complications included peritoneal carcinomatosis index score, symptomatic status, and undergoing pancreatectomy, while American Society of Anesthesiologists 2 class, appendiceal diagnosis, and preoperative albumin were most negatively associated with severe complications.

CONCLUSIONS

This study refines our ability to predict severe complications within 90 days of discharge from a hospitalization in which CRS-HIPEC was performed. This advancement is timely and relevant given the growing interest in this procedure and may have implications for patient selection, patient and referring provider comfort, and survival.

Contribution of age at diagnosis to cancer-specific survival of nasopharyngeal carcinoma patients receiving radiotherapy

To assess age as a continuous variable for the prognosis of patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) receiving radiotherapy. Patients diagnosed with NPC between 2004 and 2016 were extracted from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. The X-tile was used to calculate the optimal cutoff values for age at diagnosis. Age at diagnosis was divided into subgroups based on the cutoff values. Cancer-specific survival (CSS) between age subgroups was assessed using the Kaplan-Meier method. The age cutoff values for CSS were 42 and 70 years. The 5-year CSS was 85.8%, 73.8%, and 67.1% for the ≤42, 43 to 70, and >70 subgroups. Multivariate regression analysis revealed that race, pathology, T stage, N stage, and age were independent prognostic factors. A nomogram based on the prognostic factors showed that the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.723 (95% confidence interval, 0.697-0.749). The calibration plots showed good agreement for the 5-year CSS between the predicted and actual observations. All patients were divided into 3 groups according to risk score stratification. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses showed that patients in the low-risk cohort had a greater 5-year CSS than those in the medium- and high-risk cohorts (P < .05). Age subgroups of ≤42, 43 to 70, and >70 years may be useful for determining the prognosis of patients with NPC.

Patient's age with papillary thyroid cancer: Is it a key factor for cervical lymph node metastasis?

BACKGROUND

Age is one of the important prognostic indicators of papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). However, the distinct metastatic patterns and prognosis of age-related lymph node metastasis (LNM) are unclear. This study aims to investigate the impact of age on LNM.

METHODS

We conducted two independent cohort studies to assess age-nodal disease association using logistic regression analysis and a restricted cubic splines model. A multivariable Cox regression model was utilized to test the impact of nodal disease on cancer-specific survival (CSS) after age stratification.

RESULTS

For this study, we included 7572 and 36,793 patients with PTC in Xiangya and SEER cohorts, respectively. After adjustment, advanced age was linearly associated with decreasing risk of central LNM. Patients of age ≤18 years (OR = 4.41, P < 0.001) and 19-45 years (OR = 1.97, P = 0.002) had a higher risk of developing lateral LNM than patients of age >60 years in both cohorts. Furthermore, CSS is significantly reduced in N1b disease (P < 0.001), not N1a disease, regardless of age. The incidence of high-volume LNM (HV-LNM) was significantly higher in patients of age ≤18 years and 19-45 years than in those of age >60 years (P < 0.001), in both cohorts. In addition, CSS was compromised in patients with PTC of age 46-60 years (HR = 1.61, P = 0.022) and those of age >60 (HR = 1.40, P = 0.021) after developing HV-LNM.

CONCLUSIONS

Patient age is significantly associated with LNM and HV-LNM. Patients with N1b disease or patients with HV-LNM of age >45 years have significantly shorter CSS. Age can, thus, be a useful guide for determining treatment strategies in PTC.

Impact of Age on Prognosis in Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma: How Should Age be Incorporated into the Treatment Strategy?

BACKGROUND

Age has been recognized as one of the strong prognostic indicators for thyroid cancer. However, treatment strategies for papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) are usually determined only by the extent of disease progression, without considering the patient's age. The aim of this study was to investigate how the surgical strategy for PTC should take into account patient age.

METHODS

To exclude the effect of treatment strategy, 837 patients treated with uniform treatment strategies (hemithyroidectomy without radioiodine therapy) between 1986 and 1995 were the subjects of this study. Using a Cox proportional hazard model, clinical risk factors related to disease-specific survival (DSS), disease-free survival (DFS), and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS) were analyzed. A receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to identify the optimal cutoff points.

RESULTS

Significant risk factors related to DSS and DMFS were age, extrathyroidal extension (ETE), and numbers of metastatic lymph nodes (NMLNs), but age was not significantly related to DFS. The 20-year DSS and DMFS rates were fair in patients without ETE regardless of age or NMLNs. However, in patients with ETE, DSS and DMFS rates were significantly worse in elderly patients than in young patients. ROC curve analysis showed that the optimal cutoff age was 48 years for discriminating DSS in patients with ETE.

CONCLUSION

Regardless of age, PTC patients without ETE are candidates for a treatment strategy not using RAI, and more aggressive treatment may be recommended for elderly PTC patients with ETE.

Increases prognostic value of clinical-pathological nomogram in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Background

This study was intended to construct a brand new prognostic nomogram after combine clinical and pathological characteristics to increases prognostic value in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma.

Methods

A total of 1,634 patients were included. Subsequently, the tumor tissues of all patients were prepared into tissue microarrays. AIPATHWELL software was employed to explore tissue microarrays and calculate the tumor-stroma ratio. X-tile was adopted to find the optimal cut-off value. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to screen out remarkable characteristics for constructing the nomogram in the total populations. A novel prognostic nomogram with clinical and pathological characteristics was constructed on the basis of the training cohort (n=1,144). What's more performance was validated in the validation cohort (n=490). Clinical-pathological nomogram were assessed by concordance index, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic, calibration curve and decision curve analysis.

Results

The patients can divide into two groups with cut-off value of 69.78 for the tumor-stroma ratio. It is noteworthy that the survival difference was noticeable (P<0.001). A clinical-pathological nomogram was constructed by combining clinical and pathological characteristics to predict the overall survival. In comparison with TNM stage, the concordance index and time-dependent receiver operating characteristic of the clinical-pathological nomogram showed better predictive value (P<0.001). High quality of calibration plots in overall survival was noticed. As demonstrated by the decision curve analysis, the nomogram has better value than the TNM stage.

Conclusions

As evidently revealed by the research findings, tumor-stroma ratio is an independent prognostic factor in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma. The clinical-pathological nomogram has an incremental value compared TNM stage in predicting overall survival.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival in middle-aged patients with papillary thyroid cancer: A SEER database study

Background

Thyroid cancer (TC) accounts for more than 90% of endocrine tumours and is a typical head and neck tumour in adults. The aim of this study was to develop a predictive tool to predict cancer-specific survival (CSS) in middle-aged patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC).

Methods

The patients from 2004 to 2015 were randomly divided into a training cohort (n = 25,342) and a internal validation cohort (n = 10,725). The patients from 2016 to 2018 were treated as an external validation cohort (n = 11353). COX proportional hazard model was used to screen meaningful independent risk factors. These factors were constructed into a nomogram to predict CSS in middle-aged patients with PTC. The performance and accuracy of the nomogram were then evaluated using the concordance index (C-index), calibration curve and the area under the curve (AUC). The clinical value of nomogram was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA).

Results

Age, gender, marriage, tumour grade, T stage, N stage, M stage, surgery, chemotherapy, and tumour size were independent prognostic factors. The C-indexes of the training, internal validation, and external validation cohorts were 0.906, 0.887, and 0.962, respectively. The AUC and calibration curves show good accuracy. DCA shows that the clinical value of the nomogram is higher than that of Tumour, Node and Metastasis (TNM) staging.

Conclusion

We developed a new prediction tool to predict CSS in middle-aged patients with PTC. The model has good performance after internal and external validation, which can be friendly to help doctors and patients predict CSS.

Log odds of negative lymph nodes/T stage ratio (LONT): A new prognostic tool for differentiated thyroid cancer without metastases in patients aged 55 and older

BACKGROUND

The optimal approach to assess the postoperative status of lymph nodes in differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) remains controversial. Our aim was to determine if the log odds of negative lymph nodes/T stage ratio (LONT) could serve as a new prognostic and predictive tool for DTC without metastases in patients aged ≥ 55 years.

METHODS

The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to study the role of LONT in patients aged ≥55 years diagnosed with DTC without metastases. The primary outcome was overall survival (OS). The Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazard regression model were used to calculate the outcome. Moreover, the robustness of research findings was evaluated using sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

A total of 21,172 DTC patients aged ≥55 years without distant metastasis were enrolled. Multivariate Cox regression analyses and a "floating absolute risk" analysis showed that a LONT ≥0.920 (vs. -0.56 to 0.92) was a protective factor for OS in DTC patients. Sensitivity analyses revealed an E-value of 1.98 for the obtained LONT value. In subgroup analyses, LONT was correlated significantly with OS in different subgroups of negative lymph nodes, stage-I-II subgroups and the N0 subgroup. The conditional probability of survival of DTC improved with prolonged survival time in the LONT ≥0.920 group.

CONCLUSION

A high LONT was associated with longer OS compared with low LONT in patients aged ≥55 years with non-metastatic DTC. LONT could provide valuable information for undertaking postoperative evaluations.

Influence of age as a continuous variable on survival outcomes and treatment options in patients with upper thoracic esophageal carcinoma

Background: This retrospective review of patients with upper thoracic esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) analyzed the prognostic value of age, as a continuous variable, and offered insight into treatment options. Methods: 568 upper ESCC patients underwent radical therapy between 2004 and 2016. Age as a continuous variable was entered into the Cox regression model with penalized spline (P-spline) analysis to investigate a correlation between age and survival outcomes. Results: Before adjustment, P-spline regression revealed U-shaped survival curves. Sixty years was the optimal cut-off age for differences in overall and progression-free survival (OS, PFS). The cohort was divided into age groups ≤ 50, 51-69, and ≥ 70 years. Multivariate analyses showed no significant differences in either PFS or OS for patients aged ≤ 50 and 51-69 years. After adjusting for covariates, P-spline regression showed that the risk of mortality and disease progression increased with age, and ≥ 70 years was an unfavorable independent prognostic factor. For age ≥ 70 years, the OS and PFS associated with non-surgery was comparable to that of surgery. For patients younger, the OS and PFS of patients given surgery was significantly better than that of patients given non-surgery. Conclusion: Age was an independent prognostic factor for upper ESCC. Patients ≥ 70 years achieved no significant survival benefit from surgery, but for those younger than 70 years surgery was the preferred treatment option.

Survival prognostic factors for differentiated thyroid cancer patients with pulmonary metastases: A systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

The prognostic factors for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) patients with pulmonary metastases (PM) remain scantly identified and analyzed. Therefore, this systematic review and meta-analysis were performed to identify and summarize the prognostic factors in adult DTC patients with PM to help distinguish patients with different prognoses and inform the rational treatment regimens.

Method

We performed a comprehensive search of the relevant studies published in the Cochrane Library, PubMed, Scopus, Embase, Wanfang database, VIP database, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, and Google Scholar from their inception until February 2021. The pooled hazard ratios (HR) for overall survival and/or progression-free survival (PFS) with 95% confidence intervals were applied to evaluate and identify the potential prognostic factors. Pooled OS at different time points were also calculated for the available data. A random-effects model was used in the meta-analysis.

Results

The review and meta-analysis included 21 studies comprising 2722 DTC patients with PM. The prognostic factors for poor OS were: age over 40 years (HR=7.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.52-34.10, P=0.01, N=788), age over 45 years (HR=2.18, 95% CI 1.26-3.77, P<0.01, N=601), male gender (HR=1.01, 95% CI 1.01-1.19, P=0.03, N=1396), follicular subtype of thyroid cancer (HR=1.63, 95% CI 1.36-1.96, P<0.01, N=2110), iodine non-avidity (HR=3.10, 95% CI 1.79-5.37, P<0.01, N=646), and metastases to other organs (HR=3.18, 95% CI 2.43-4.16, P<0.01, N=1713). Factors associated with poor PFS included age over 45 years (HR=3.85, 95% CI 1.29-11.47, P<0.01, N=306), male gender (HR=1.36, 95% CI 1.06-1.75, P=0.02, N=546), iodine non-avidity (HR=2.93, 95% CI 2.18-3.95, P<0.01, N=395), pulmonary metastatic nodule size over 10mm (HR=2.56, 95% CI 2.02-3.24, P<0.01, N=513), and extra-thyroidal invasion (HR=2.05, 95% CI 1.15-3.67, P=0.02, N=271). The pooled 1, 3, 5, 10, 15, and 20-years OS were 95.24%, 88.46%, 78.36%, 64.86%, 56.57%, and 51.03%, respectively.

Conclusions

This review and meta-analysis identified the prognostic factors of DTC patients with PM. Notably, FTC, metastases to other organs, and iodine non-avidity were particularly associated with poor prognosis. The identified prognostic factors will help guide the clinical management of DTC patients with PM.

Systematic review registration

https://inplasy.com/inplasy-2022-2-0026/, identifier (INPLASY202220026).

Incomplete response to therapy in intermediate- and high-risk thyroid cancer

CONTEXT

The American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk stratification system predicts risk of recurrence of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). Although the majority of patients achieve an excellent response, patients with intermediate- or high-risk DTC are at a significant risk of developing incomplete responses. We undertook this work to understand the factors associated with development of biochemically or structurally incomplete response in these two risk subgroups of DTC.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed 287 consecutive patients with intermediate- (213 patients) or high-risk (74 patients) DTC. All patients underwent total thyroidectomy with (223 patients) or without (64 patients) lymph node dissection and 94% of them received at least one dose of I-131ablation/therapy. Univariate and multivariate analysis and Kaplan Meier analysis were used to compare patients who achieved an excellent response with those who continued to have biochemically or structurally incomplete responses.

RESULTS

In univariate and multivariate analyses, age (P 0.002, Odds ratio 4.8, 95% CI: 1.8-12.9), tumor size (P 0.027, Odds ratio 1.30, 95% CI: 1.03-1.64) and distant metastases (P &lt; 0.0001, Odds ratio 44.6, 95% CI: 10.7-184.5) were significantly associated with the risk of developing biochemically or structurally incomplete statuses. Patients ≥ 55 years, tumors &gt; 2.5 cm and presence of distant metastasis were associated with higher risk of incomplete response and death from DTC. However, when this analysis was performed on intermediate and high-risk groups separately, only age was consistently associated with risk of biochemically or structurally incomplete response in either and both groups.

CONCLUSION

Age is a strong predictor of biochemically and structurally incomplete responses in patients with intermediate and high-risk DTC.

Surgical efficacy and survival prediction of patients with unspecified malignant bone tumors

Background

The surgical efficacy and prognostic outcomes of patients with unspecific malignant bone tumors (UMBTs) remain unclear. The study is to address: 1) What are the clinicopathological features and prognostic determinants for patients with UMBTs? 2) Can a nomogram be developed for clinicians to predict the short and long-term outcomes for individuals with UMBTs? 3) Does surgery improve outcomes for UMBT patients who received radiotherapy or chemotherapy after balancing the confounding bias?

Methods

400 UMBT patients were filtrated from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database to assess the clinicopathological features, treatments, and factors affecting prognosis. The optimal cutoff values of continuous variables were identified by the x-tile software. Kaplan-Meier method and multivariate Cox proportional hazard modeling were performed to evaluate the independent prognostic factors. Nomogram was further developed by using R software with rms package. The surgical efficacy was further assessed for patients receiving radiotherapy or chemotherapy after performing propensity score matching.

Results

The enrolled cohort included 195 (48.8%) female and 205 (51.2%) male patients. The 2- and 5-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) rate were 58.2 ± 3.0%, 46.8 ± 3.2%, and 46.5 ± 2.6%, 34.4 ± 2.5%, respectively. Nomogram was finally developed for CSS and OS according to the identified independent factors: age, tumor extent, primary tumor surgery, tumor size, and pathology grade. For UMBT patients who received radiotherapy or chemotherapy, surgical intervention was associated with better CSS (pr = 0.003, pc = 0.002) and OS (pr = 0.035, pc = 0.002), respectively.

Conclusions

Nomogram was developed for individual UMBT patient to predict short and long-term CSS and OS rate, and more external patient cohorts are warranted for validation. Surgery improves outcomes for UMBT patients who received either radiotherapy or chemotherapy.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12885-022-10153-x.

Assessment of age as different variable types for determining survival in differentiated thyroid cancer

PURPOSE

The current tumor, node, metastasis (TNM) system uses an age of 55 years as a threshold for differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). The aim of our study was to explore the concept of using age as a continuous variable.

METHODS

A total of 36,559 patients with DTC in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and 7491 patients in our centers were enrolled. Overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were compared. Furthermore, the different statistical model performance of the 6th edition TNM system and age cutoffs for papillary (PTC) and follicular thyroid cancer (FTC) were assessed. Then, a nomogram was built and validated to evaluate the efficacy of age as a continuous variable for predicting survival.

RESULTS

The OS and CSS of patients with DTC were significantly increased in patients <55 years compared with those aged ≥55 years. However, no significant differences in prognosis were observed in certain groups as patients between 50 and 60 years were stratified by 1-year increments. Furthermore, the highest concordance index (C-index) was observed in the TNM staging without an age cutoff in SEER database (0.895), our two centers (0.877) and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves showed different age cutoffs for PTC and FTC. More importantly, the nomogram incorporating age as a continuous variable showed a favorable area under the ROC curve and calibration for training and validation groups.

CONCLUSIONS

The utilization of age as a continuous variable is a rational approach for predicting outcome in DTC patients.

Burden of thyroid cancer in North Africa and Middle East 1990–2019

Background

Thyroid cancer is the leading cause of mortality and morbidity among cancers of the endocrine system. We aimed to describe the trends of thyroid cancer burden in North Africa and Middle East for 1990–2019.

Methods

Data on burden of thyroid cancer in North Africa and Middle East from 1990 to 2019 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019. Decomposition analysis was used to estimate the effects of population growth, aging, and change in incident numbers on overall change of thyroid cancer incidence. Also, we used the comparative risk assessment framework of GBD to determine the burden of thyroid cancer attributable to a high body mass index (BMI).

Results

In 2019, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) of thyroid cancer were 3.5 (2.9–4) and 0.5 (0.5–0.7) per 100,000, respectively. The highest age-standardized incidence, deaths, and disability-adjusted life year (DALY) rate were in Lebanon, Afghanistan, and United Arab Emirates, respectively. The ASIR of thyroid cancer in region was about 2.5 times higher among women, which had a positive association with increasing age. In 2019, the age-standardized deaths attributable to a high BMI was 16.7% of all deaths due to thyroid cancer. In 1990–2019, the overall change in thyroid cancer incident cases was a 396% increase which was mostly driven by the increase in disease-specific incidence rate (256.8%).

Conclusions

Women, the elderly above about 60 years old, and countries with a higher sociodemographic index showed higher incidence rates of thyroid cancer. Regarding our findings, it is recommended to establish preventive plans by modification in life style like weight reduction programs.

Exploring the relationship between age and prognosis in glioma: rethinking current age stratification

Background

The age of glioma plays a unique role in prognosis. We hypothesized that age is not positively correlated with survival prognosis and explored its exact relationship.

Methods

Glioma was identified from the SEER database (between 2000 and 2018). A multivariate Cox proportional regression model and restricted cubic spline (RCS) plot were used to assess the relationship between age and prognosis.

Results

A total of 66465 patients with glioma were included. Hazard ratios (HR) for ten-year by age: 0–9 years, HR 1.06 (0.93–1.20); 10–19 years: reference; 20–29 years, HR 0.90 (0.82–1.00); 30–39 years, HR 1.14 (1.04–1.25); 40–49 years, HR 2.09 (1.91–2.28); 50–59 years, HR 3.48 (3.19–3.79); 60–69 years, HR 4.91 (4.51–5.35);70–79 years, HR 7.95 (7.29–8.66); 80–84 years, HR 12.85 (11.74–14.06). After adjusting for covariates, the prognosis was not positively correlated with age. The smooth curve of RCS revealed this non-linear relationship: HR increased to 10 years first, decreased to 23 years, reached its lowest point, and became J-shaped.

Conclusion

The relationship between age and glioma prognosis is non-linear. These results challenge the applicability of current age groupings for gliomas and advocate the consideration of individualized treatment guided by precise age.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12883-022-02879-9.

Development and validation of a nomogram to predict cancer-specific survival in elderly patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma: a population-based study

Objective

Thyroid carcinoma (TC) is the most common endocrine tumor in the human body. Papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) accounts for more than 80% of thyroid cancers. Accurate prediction of elderly PTC can help reduce the mortality of patients. We aimed to construct a nomogram predicting cancer-specific survival (CSS) in elderly patients with PTC.

Methods

Patient information was downloaded from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression models were used to screen the independent risk factors for patients with PTC. The nomogram of elderly patients with PTC was constructed based on the multivariate Cox regression model. We used the concordance index (C-index), the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and the calibration curve to test the accuracy and discrimination of the prediction model. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to test the clinical value of the model.

Results

A total of 14,138 elderly patients with PTC were included in this study. Patients from 2004 to 2015 were randomly divided into a training set (N = 7379) and a validation set (N = 3141), and data from 2016 to 2018 were divided into an external validation set (N = 3618). Proportional sub-distribution hazard model showed that age, sex, tumor size, histological grade, TNM stage, surgery and chemotherapy were independent risk factors for prognosis. In the training set, validation set and external validation set, the C-index was 0.87(95%CI: 0.852–0.888), 0.891(95%CI: 0.866–0.916) and 0.931(95%CI:0.894–0.968), respectively, indicating that the nomogram had good discrimination. Calibration curves and AUC suggest that the prediction model has good discrimination and accuracy.

Conclusions

We constructed a new nomogram to predict CSS in elderly patients with PTC. Internal cross-validation and external validation indicate that the model has good discrimination and accuracy. The predictive model can help doctors and patients make clinical decisions.

Non-Iodine-Avid Disease Is Highly Prevalent in Distant Metastatic Differentiated Thyroid Cancer With Papillary Histology

CONTEXT

Patients with radioactive iodine (RAI) refractory metastatic differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) have poor prognosis. Early identification of RAI refractoriness may improve care.

OBJECTIVE

This work aimed to characterize DTC patients with distant metastases (DM) at diagnosis who presented with non-iodine-avid disease.

METHODS

Retrospective analyses of DTC patients with DM at diagnosis who presented between 2012 and 2020 were performed. Iodine uptake in DM was correlated with tumor histology and mutational profile. The difference in uptake between BRAFV600E-like (BVL) and RAS-like (RL) cancers based on insights from The Cancer Genome Atlas was evaluated.

RESULTS

Among 78 patients, 48.7% had negative uptake in DM on the first posttherapy scan. Negative scans were highly prevalent in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) with papillary architecture, PTC with BRAFV600E mutation, and PTC with both BRAFV600E and TERT promoter mutations (71.1%, 80.9%, and 100%, respectively). BVL and RL tumors exhibited distinct uptake patterns with negative scan prevalence of 76.9% and 14.3% (P = .005). Multivariate logistical regression confirmed high odds of negative uptake in BVL tumors with either BVL mutations or papillary architecture, 19.8 (95% CI, 2.72-144), and low odds of negative uptake in RL tumors with either RL mutations or follicular architecture, 0.048 (95% CI, 0.006-0.344), after adjusting for age, sex, race, RAI preparation method, bone metastases, and RAI dose. Patients with negative scans were significantly older (62.4 vs 47.0 years, P = .03).

CONCLUSION

Among DTC patients with DM at diagnosis, non-iodine-avid disease is highly prevalent in patients with BVL cancers, particularly with BRAFV600E and TERT promoter mutations, and is associated with an older age. Better strategies are needed to improve RAI treatment response for these patients.

Research Review of Thermal Ablation in the Treatment of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma

Background

Minimally invasive treatment of thyroid tumors has become increasingly common, but has mainly focused on benign thyroid tumors, whereas thermal ablation of thyroid cancer remains controversial. Clinical studies analyzing the efficacy of thermal ablation of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) have been conducted in several countries to verify its safety. Here, we screened and reviewed recent studies on the efficacy and safety of thermal ablation of PTC as well as psychological assessment, patient prognosis, recurrence, and factors affecting ablation.

Summary

The most significant controversy surrounding ablative treatment of PTC centers on its effectiveness and safety, and >40 studies have been conducted to address this issue. The studies include papillary thyroid microcarcinoma (PTMC) and non-PTMC, single PTC and multiple PTC, and controlled studies of ablative therapy and surgical treatment. In general, ablation techniques can be carefully performed and promoted under certain conditions and with active follow-up of postoperative patients. Ablation is a promising alternative treatment especially in patients who are inoperable.

Conclusions

Clinical studies on PTC ablation have provided new perspectives on local treatment. However, because PTC grows very slowly, it is an indolent tumor; therefore, studies with larger sample sizes and extended post-procedure follow-ups are necessary to confirm the investigators’ hypotheses.

Comparison of the prognostic value of AJCC cancer staging system 7th and 8th editions for differentiated thyroid cancer

BACKGROUND

In the last American Joint Committee on Cancer/Tumor, Node, Metastasis (AJCC/TNM) 8th edition (TNM8), several changes were introduced to this risk stratification system to improve the prognosis of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC).

AIM

To validate the impact of TNM8 vs. TNM 7th edition (TNM7) in DTC in terms of predictive value in two hospitals from Buenos Aires, Argentina.

METHODS

Retrospective study of DTC patients from two institutions. Reclassification from TNM7 to TNM8, disease-specific survival (DSS), and final clinical outcomes at the end of follow-up (recurrent/persistent structural disease) (median 5 years) were analyzed. The proportion of variation explained (PVE) was used to compare the predictive capability of DSS of both classification systems.

RESULTS

Reclassification of 245 patients, aged (mean ± SD) 55 ± 15.36 years, 91% women, to TNM8 from TNM7 showed: 82% vs 57% stage I (SI), 10% vs 8.5% SII, 5% vs 22% SIII, 3% vs 12% SIV (p < 0.01). Forty percent of the population was downstaged with TNM8. Ten-year DSS rates for SI, SII, SIII and SIV in TNM7 were 100, 100, 100 and 74%, respectively and in TNM8: 97.6, 100, 100 and 37.5%, respectively. Out of 4 disease-specific deaths in SIV TNM7, one was subclassified to SI TNM8, corresponding to a 53-year-old patient with structural persistence. PVE for TNM8 (29%) was more than twice that of TNM7 (13%).

CONCLUSION

In this Argentinian DTC patients sample, it was confirmed that the new TNM8 classification is more accurate in predicting survival attributable to cancer than its previous version.

Prediction of Solitary Plasmacytoma of Bone in Elderly Patients: A Nomogram and a Risk Classification System for Overall Survival

Background

Solitary plasmacytoma of bone (SPB) is an isolated plasmacytoma of bone origin, most commonly seen in the elderly, with a poor prognosis. So far, there is no precise nomogram to predict the overall survival (OS) of elderly patients with SPB. Our goal is to construct and validate a nomogram for elderly patients with SPB.

Methods

This study collected all elderly patients with SPB in the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) database from 2000 to 2018, and the variables included were age, sex, race, marital status, primary site, grade, stage, surgery, chemotherapy, and radiotherapy. Independent prognostic factors were identified using univariate and multivariate Cox analysis. The nomogram was constructed to predict 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS of elderly patients with SPB. The receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) and the calibration curves were used to differentiate and calibrate the nomogram. The clinical validity of the nomogram was evaluated by decision curve analysis (DCA). The total OS scores of all elderly SPB patients were calculated and divided into two risk subgroups for comparison.

Results

A total of 1837 patients diagnosed with SPB were screened from the SEER database, with a final inclusion of 1180 patients (age ≥ 60 years). Age, radiotherapy, and marital status were significantly correlated with OS. These characteristics were further incorporated into the creation of the nomogram for predicting 1-, 2-, and 3-year OS of elderly patients with SPB. For this predictive model, the area under the ROC curves, calibration curves, and DCA have good performance in terms of differentiation, consistency, and validity, respectively. In addition, patients in the high-risk group (≥96) had a worse prognosis than those in the low-risk group (<96).

Conclusion

We constructed a nomogram and a risk classification system that could provide an intuitive and effective tool for clinicians to better predict the OS of elderly SPB patients.

Increased prognostic value of clinical–reproductive model in Chinese female patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

BACKGROUND

In China, it has been well recognized that some female patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) have different overall survival (OS) time, even with the same tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage, challenging the prognostic value of the TNM system alone. An effective predictive model is needed to accurately evaluate the prognosis of female ESCC patients.

AIM

To construct a novel prognostic model with clinical and reproductive data for Chinese female patients with ESCC, and to assess the incremental prognostic value of the full model compared with the clinical model and TNM stage.

METHODS

A new prognostic nomogram incorporating clinical and reproductive features was constructed based on univariatie and Cox proportional hazards survival analysis from a training cohort (n = 175). The results were recognized using the internal (n = 111) and independent external (n = 85) validation cohorts. The capability of the clinical–reproductive model was evaluated by Harrell’s concordance index (C-index), Kaplan–Meier curve, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC), calibration curve and decision curve analysis. The correlations between estrogen response and immune-related pathways and some gene markers of immune cells were analyzed using the TIMER 2.0 database.

RESULTS

A clinical–reproductive model including incidence area, age, tumor differentiation, lymph node metastasis (N) stage, estrogen receptor alpha (ESR1) and beta (ESR2) expression, menopausal age, and pregnancy number was constructed to predict OS in female ESCC patients. Compared to the clinical model and TNM stage, the time-dependent ROC and C-index of the clinical–reproductive model showed a good discriminative ability for predicting 1-, 3-, and 5-years OS in the primary training, internal and external validation sets. Based on the optimal cut-off value of total prognostic scores, patients were classified into high- and low-risk groups with significantly different OS. The estrogen response was significantly associated with p53 and apoptosis pathways in esophageal cancer.

CONCLUSION

The clinical–reproductive prognostic nomogram has an incremental prognostic value compared with the clinical model and TNM stage in predicting OS in Chinese female ESCC patients.

Surgery and Radioactive Iodine Therapeutic Strategy for Patients Greater Than 60 Years of Age with Differentiated Thyroid Cancer

Purpose: The purpose of the current study was to determine whether older patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) who received surgical treatment had a better cause-specific survival (CSS) than patients who were recommended surgery, but declined, and whether patients who underwent postoperative RAI-131 therapy had an impact on CSS based on TNM staging and number of lymph node metastases for all total or near-total thyroidectomy patients. Patients and Methods: This retrospective, population-based study analyzed the clinical data of 162 DTC patients from signal institution in China and 26,487 cases from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program registry. The patients were divided into two groups (underwent surgery and surgery recommended, but not performed) in the SEER cohort. Furthermore, patients were grouped as follows: T4; N1b; M1; T1-3N0-1a; specific number of lymph node metastases; and total or near-total thyroidectomy. Results: The 120-month cause-specific survival (CSS) rate of women and men showed a gradual declining trend from 60–64 to ≥80 years of age in the group that underwent surgery. The CSS rate of women and men showed a marked downward and irregular trend with an increase in age in the recommended, but no surgery group in the SEER cohort. Univariate analysis indicated that the surgery group had a higher 120-month CSS in women in most stages and men, compared with the no surgery group in the SEER cohort. The analysis of the SEER cohort showed that RAI-131 therapy was associated with an improved 80-month CSS in T4/N1b/M1 women (P < 0.0183) and men (P < 0.0011). However, there were no CSS differences between the RAI-131 therapy and the no-RAI-131 group for the patients with T4/N1b/M1 (AJCC 7th) thyroid cancer in the Chinese cohort. There was no CSS difference in women or men between the T1-3N0 and T1-3N1a patients in the SEER cohort. And similar findings were observed in T1-3N1a patients in the Chinese cohort. There was no statistical difference between the two subgroups. Conclusions: Surgical treatment should be recommended for elderly DTC patients because surgery can lead to a better CSS. High-risk patients achieve a higher benefit-to-risk ratio with RAI-131 therapy. To avoid the adverse effects associated with RAI-131 therapy, a multidisciplinary discussion should be arranged for intermediate- and low-risk patients.

Clinicopathological features and prognosis of papillary thyroid cancer patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus

BACKGROUND

The clinicopathological characteristics of patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) combined with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and patients with PTC alone were explored and compared in order to provide a more reasonable treatment plan for the clinical diagnosis and treatment of these patients.

METHODS

A total of 1,771 patients from January 2017 to December 2019 who underwent PTC surgery for the first time in the west branch of the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University were analyzed retrospectively. Among them, 111 patients had PTC with T2DM (D-T group) and 1,660 patients had PTC alone (PTC group). The differences in general data and clinical characteristics between the D-T group and the PTC group were analyzed.

RESULTS

There were statistically significant differences in age, gender, and body mass index (BMI) between the D-T group and PTC group (P<0.05). Multifocality and extra-glandular invasion in the D-T group were significantly higher than the PTC group (P<0.05). In women, the D-T group was older, had a higher BMI, and was more likely to have extra-glandular invasion (P<0.05) than the PTC group. The prognosis of the D-T group was worse than that of the PTC group as determined by 3 well-developed prognostic staging systems, 8th AJCC TNM staging, MAGIS SCORE, AMES staging, and the results were statistically significant (P=0.001, P<0.001, P=0.021).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study showed that the overall prognosis of PTC patients with T2DM was worse than that of patients with PTC alone. At the same time, especially in patients younger than 55 years of age, multifocal carcinoma and extra-glandular invasion are likely to occur. In addition, female patients with T2DM are more likely to have extra-glandular invasion than male patients. Therefore, for such patients, preoperative evaluation should be fully conducted.

Characterization of the CpG island methylator phenotype subclass in papillary thyroid carcinoma

CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP), characterized by the concurrent and widespread hypermethylation of a cluster of CpGs, has been reported to play an important role in carcinogenesis. Limited studies have explored the role of CIMP in papillary thyroid carcinomas (PTCs). Here, in genome-wide DNA methylation analysis of 350 primary PTCs from the Cancer Genome Atlas database that were assessed using the Illumina HumanMethylation450K platform, our study helps to identify two subtypes displayed markedly distinct DNA methylation levels, termed CIMP (high levels of DNA methylation) and nCIMP subgroup (low levels of DNA methylation). Interestingly, PTCs with CIMP tend to have a higher degree of malignancy, since this subtype was tightly associated with older age, advanced pathological stage, and lymph node metastasis (all P < 0.05). Differential methylation analysis showed a broad methylation gain in CIMP and subsequent generalized gene set testing analysis based on the significantly methylated probes in CIMP showed remarkable enrichment in epithelial mesenchymal transition and angiogenesis hallmark pathways, confirming that the CIMP phenotype may promote the tumor progression from another perspective. Analysis of tumor microenvironment showed that CIMP PTCs are in an immune-depletion status, which may affect the effectiveness of immunotherapy. Genetically, the significantly higher tumor mutation burden and copy number alteration both at the genome and focal level confirmed the genomic heterogeneity and chromosomal instability of CIMP. tumor Corresponding to the above findings, PTC patients with CIMP showed remarkable poor clinical outcome as compared to nCIMP regarding overall survival and progression-free survival. More importantly, CIMP was associated with worse survival independent of known prognostic factors.

Survival Outcomes and Prognostic Predictors in Patients With Malignant Struma Ovarii

Background: Malignant struma ovarii (MSO) is an extremely rare ovarian malignant tumor and there is limited data on the survival outcomes and prognostic predictors of MSO. The objectives of this study were to investigate the disease-free survival (DFS), overall survival (OS), and disease-specific survival (DSS) rates of patients with MSO, and also evaluate the prognostic factors in this population.

Methods: A retrospective study was conducted and 194 cases of MSO were selected. DFS was assessed by the logistic regression, OS by the Kaplan–Meier method, and DSS was evaluated by the Cox regression.

Results: The median age of these patients was 46.0 years; 142 cases (73.2%) were confined to the ovary and 52 cases (26.8%) had extraovarian metastasis at the initial diagnosis of MSO. During the follow-up, 75.3% of these patients showed no evidence of disease and 18.0% were alive with disease. Only 13 deaths occurred, with 10 attributed to MSO. The 5, 10, and 15-year OS rates were 91.4, 87.7, and 83.5%, respectively. The 5, 10, and 15-year DSS rates were 93.8, 90.0, and 85.7%, respectively. Logistic regression revealed that International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) stage IV was the only risk factor for DFS [p < 0.001; odds ratio (OR) 7.328; 95% CI 3.103–16.885, FIGO stage IV vs. stage I; p = 0.021; OR 4.750, 95% CI 1.264–17.856, FIGO stage IV vs. stage II-III]. The multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that poor differentiation was the only risk factor for both OS (p = 0.005, OR 6.406; 95% CI 1.730–23.717) and DSS (p = 0.001, OR 9.664; 95% CI 2.409–38.760), while age ≥45 years was the prognostic predictor for OS (p = 0.038, OR 4.959; 95% CI 1.093–22.508).

Conclusion: Survival outcomes were excellent in patients with MSO, irrespective of the treatment strategy, FIGO stage IV, age ≥45 years, and poor differentiation of tumors were the independent risk factors.

A Bibliometric Analysis of 34,692 Publications on Thyroid Cancer by Machine Learning: How Much Has Been Done in the Past Three Decades?

Introduction

Thyroid cancer (TC) is the most common neck malignancy. However, a large number of publications of TC have not been well summarized and discussed with more comprehensive methods. The purpose of this bibliometric study is to summarize scientific publications during the past three decades in the field of TC using a machine learning method.

Material and Methods

Scientific publications focusing on TC from 1990 to 2020 were searched in PubMed using the MeSH term "thyroid neoplasms". Full associated data were downloaded in the format of PubMed, and extracted in the R platform. Latent Dirichlet allocation (LDA) was adopted to identify the research topics from the abstract of each publication using Python.

Results

A total of 34,692 publications related to TC from the last three decades were found and included in this study with an average of 1,119.1 publications per year. Clinical studies and experimental studies shared the most proportion of publications, while the proportion of clinical trials remained at a relatively small level (5.87% as the highest in 2004). Thyroidectomy was the lead MeSH term, followed by prognosis, differential diagnosis, and fine-needle biopsy. The LDA analyses showed the study topics were divided into four clusters, including treatment management, basic research, diagnosis research, epidemiology, and cancer risk. However, a relatively weak connection was shown between treatment managements and basic researches. Top 10 most cited publications in recent years particularly highlighted the applications of active surveillance in TC.

Conclusion

Thyroidectomy, differential diagnosis, genomic analysis, active surveillance are the most concerning topics in TC researches. Although the BRAF-targeted therapy is under development with promising results, there is still an urgent need for conversions from basic studies to clinical practice.

Development and validation of a nomogram based on stromal score to predict progression-free survival of patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma

Background

Growing evidence has proved that stromal cells, as the critical component of tumor microenvironment (TME), are closely associated with tumor's progression. However, the model based on stromal score to predict progression‐free survival (PFS) in papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) has not been developed. The study aimed at exploring the relation between stromal score and prognosis, then establishing a nomogram to predict PFS of patients with PTC.

Method

We obtained the stromal score and clinicopathological characteristics of PTC patients from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Cox regression analysis assisted in selecting prognosis‐related factors. A stromal score‐based nomogram was built and verified in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The calibration curve, concordance index (C‐index), decision curve analysis (DCA) as well as receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve assisted in measuring the performance exhibited by the nomogram.

Results

We divided 381 PTC patients into the training cohort (n = 269) and the validation cohort (n = 112) randomly. Compared with patients who had a low stromal score, patients with a high stromal score appeared with significantly better PFS [Hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.294, 0.130–0.664]. The C‐index of the PFS nomogram was 0.764 (0.662–0.866) in the training cohort and 0.717 (0.603–0.831) in the validation cohort. The calibration curves for PFS prediction in the nomogram were remarkably consistent with the actual observation. DCA indicated superior performance of the nomogram to predict PFS than the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) Tumor Node Metastasis (TNM) staging system. The ROC curves showed the favorable sensitivity and specificity of the novel nomogram.

Conclusion

High stromal score was significantly associated with improved PFS in patients with PTC. The nomogram based on the stromal score and clinicopathological patterns yielded a reliable performance to predict the prognosis of PTC.

A Joint Statement from the American Thyroid Association, the European Association of Nuclear Medicine, the European Thyroid Association, the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging on Current Diagnostic and Theranostic Approaches in the Management of Thyroid Cancer

Background: The American Thyroid Association (ATA), the European Association of Nuclear Medicine, the European Thyroid Association, and the Society of Nuclear Medicine and Molecular Imaging have established an intersocietal working group to address the current controversies and evolving concepts in thyroid cancer management and therapy. The working group annually identifies topics that may significantly impact clinical practice and publishes expert opinion articles reflecting intersocietal collaboration, consensus, and suggestions for further research to address these important management issues. Summary: In 2019, the intersocietal working group identified the following topics for review and interdisciplinary discussion: (i) perioperative risk stratification, (ii) the role of diagnostic radioactive iodine (RAI) imaging in initial staging, and (iii) indicators of response to RAI therapy. Conclusions: The intersocietal working group agreed that (i) initial patient management decisions should be guided by perioperative risk stratification that should include the eighth edition American Joint Committee on Cancer staging system to predict disease specific mortality, the modified 2009 ATA risk stratification system to estimate structural disease recurrence, with judicious incorporation of molecular theranostics to further refine management recommendations; (ii) diagnostic RAI scanning in ATA intermediate risk patients should be utilized selectively rather than being considered mandatory or not necessary for all patients in this category; and (iii) a consistent semiquantitative reporting system should be used for response evaluations after RAI therapy until a reproducible and clinically practical quantitative system is validated.

Finding the Optimal Age Cutoff for the UICC/AJCC TNM Staging System in Patients with Papillary or Follicular Thyroid Cancer

Background: Differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) is the only cancer entity for which the UICC/AJCC (Union for International Cancer Control and American Joint Committee on Cancer) TNM (tumor-node-metastasis) staging system involves an age cutoff as a prognostic criterion. However, the optimal age cutoff has not yet been determined in detail. The aim of our study was therefore to investigate the optimal age cutoff for the TNM staging system to predict disease-specific survival (DSS) with a focus on differences between patients with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) and follicular thyroid cancer (FTC). Methods: We retrospectively studied two large well-described cohorts of adult DTC patients from a Dutch and a German university hospital. DSS was analyzed for DTC overall, and for PTC and FTC separately, using several age cutoffs (per 5-year increment between 20 and 85 years and subsequently 1-year increments between 35 and 55 years), employing the histopathological criteria from the TNM staging system, eighth edition. Results: We included 3074 DTC patients (77% PTC and 23% FTC; mean age at diagnosis was 49 years). Median follow-up was seven years. For DTC and for PTC and FTC separately, the majority of the age cutoffs had a better statistical model performance than a model with no age cutoff. For DTC overall and for PTC, an age cutoff of 50 years had the best statistical model performance, while it was 40 years for FTC. Conclusions: In this large European population of DTC patients, when employing the histopathological criteria of the TNM system (eighth edition), the optimal age cutoff to predict DSS is 50 years rather than the 55 years currently in use. With the optimal age cutoff being 50 years for PTC and 40 years for FTC, there was a substantial difference in age cutoff for the respective histological entities. Therefore, implementation of different age cutoffs for PTC and FTC could improve the predictive value of the TNM staging system.

Application of competing risk model in the prognostic prediction study of patients with follicular thyroid carcinoma

BACKGROUND

Follicular thyroid carcinoma (FTC) is an indolent carcinoma. The cumulative incidence of death from patients with FTC and the nomogram built based on the competing risks model have not been described.

METHODS

The data from patients diagnosed with primary FTC were identified and extracted from the surveillance, epidemiology, and end results (SEER) program (1988-2015). The cumulative incidence function was utilized to calculate the likelihood of death resulting from thyroid cancer and other causes, respectively. Gray's test was used to examine the difference in the cumulative incidence of death between the groups. A tenfold cross-validation was applied to assess the discrimination and calibration of the model.

RESULTS

A total of 9210 patients diagnosed with primary FTC were included. The median follow-up time was 92 months (1-347 months). The 5-year, 10-year, and 20-year probabilities of death from FTC were 2.84%, 5.23%, and 8.61%, respectively. The age at diagnosis, sex, tumor size, pathological subtypes, tumor extension, lymph node involvement, as well as surgical and radiotherapy methods used, were related to the cumulative incidence of death. Multivariate analysis identified several risk factors for patient survival. The model behaved well in terms of performance. A nomogram based on the model allowed the prediction of the probability of death among patients with FTC.

CONCLUSIONS

The prognosis of FTC is excellent. The likelihood of death caused by thyroid cancer increases with age. Male sex, tumors larger than 4 cm, invasion, extrathyroidal extension, lymph node involvement, and distant metastases increase the risk of dying of thyroid carcinoma. The nomogram constructed on the basis of the model is potentially useful for both clinicians and patients.

Survival in differentiated thyroid carcinoma: Comparison between the 7th and 8th editions of the AJCC/UICC TNM staging system and the ATA initial risk stratification system

BACKGROUND

The AJCC/UICC TNM staging system evaluates the risk of death from cancer. Its 8th edition aimed to increase its accuracy. In turn, the American Thyroid Association proposed an initial risk stratification system (IRSS) focusing on the risk of recurrence in differentiated thyroid carcinoma. The present study intended to analyze their prediction abilities.

METHODS

Six hundred and eighty-five consecutive surgical patients (mean follow-up 71.6 months) were staged. Correlations with disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) were carried out.

RESULTS

IRSS was discriminative for DFS but not for OS. Applying TNM 8th, 36.9% of the cohort was downstaged. Their DFS was shorter, compared with other patients in the same stage, but with no impact on OS. However, all those who died of the disease had been downstaged.

CONCLUSIONS

IRSS was more effective to predict DFS, but not OS. TNM 8th was more appropriate for OS analysis than TNM 7th and IRSS.

Incidence and mortality from thyroid cancer in Latin America

OBJECTIVE

To describe trends in thyroid cancer incidence and mortality in Latin America.

METHODS

Ecological study of time series, with incidence data from the International Agency for Research on Cancer for the 1990-2012 period and mortality data of 16 countries obtained from WHO for the 1995-2013 period. The trends of incidence rates were analysed by the Joinpoint regression. Average annual percentage change and 95% confidence intervals were calculated for incidence and mortality.

RESULTS

Incidence and mortality from thyroid cancer in Latin America were higher in women, with the highest incidence rate in women in Quito (Ecuador) aged 40-59 years: 42.2 new cases per 100 000 inhabitants, and mortality of 4.8/100 000 in women over 60. Thyroid cancer incidence increased in women of all age groups in Cali (Colombia), Costa Rica and Quito (Ecuador); and in men in Costa Rica. Incidence rates were stable above the age of 60 years in Cali, in Goiania (Brazil), Quito (Ecuador) and Valdivia (Chile) in men, and in women in Goiania (Brazil) and Valdivia (Chile). Mortality among women increased in Ecuador (AAPC = 3.28 CI 95% 1.36; 5.24), Guatemala (AAPC = 6.14 CI 95% 2.81; 9.58) and Mexico (AAPC = 0.67 CI 95% 0.16; 1.18).

CONCLUSIONS

Thyroid cancer incidence in Latin America is high and rising in women. Mortality remains stable in most countries of Latin America.

Association of Patient Age With Progression of Low-risk Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma Under Active Surveillance: A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

Importance

Active surveillance is sometimes considered as a disease management option for individuals with small, low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma.

Objective

To assess whether patient age is associated with progression of low-risk papillary thyroid carcinoma (tumor growth or incident metastatic disease) in adults under active surveillance.

Evidence Review

Eight electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Emcare, PsycINFO, Web of Science, and ClincalTrials.gov) were searched from inception to March 2019, supplemented with a hand search. Two investigators independently screened citations, reviewed full-text articles, and abstracted data. Additional data were sought from authors. Random-effects meta-analyses were performed using incidence data (statistically adjusted for confounders and crude rates).

Findings

A total of 1658 unique citations were screened, and 62 full-text articles were reviewed, including 5 studies. Three studies included exclusively microcarcinomas and 2 included tumors up to 2 cm in maximal diameter. The mean age of participants was 51.0 to 55.2 years in 4 studies reporting this value. The mean or median follow-up was 5 years or more in 3 studies and approximately 2 years in 2 studies. The pooled risk ratio for tumor growth of 3 mm or more in maximal diameter in individuals aged 40 to 50 years compared with younger individuals was 0.51 when adjusted for confounders (95% CI, 0.29-0.89; 1619 patients, 2 studies), and the unadjusted risk ratio of this outcome for individuals 40 years or older was 0.55 (95% CI, 0.36-0.82; 2097 patients, 4 studies). In adults aged 40 to 45 years, the unadjusted risk ratio for any tumor volume increase compared with younger individuals was 0.65 (95% CI, 0.51-0.83; 1232 patients, 4 studies). The pooled risk ratio for incident nodal metastases in individuals 40 years or older was 0.22 (95% CI, 0.10-0.47; 1806 patients, 3 studies); however, in a secondary analysis, the risk difference was not significantly different. There was no statistically significant heterogeneity in any of the meta-analyses. There were no thyroid cancer-related deaths nor incident distant metastases.

Conclusions and Relevance

This study suggests that older age may be associated with a reduced risk of primary papillary thyroid carcinoma tumor growth under active surveillance. Incident metastatic disease is uncommon during active surveillance.

Development and validation of a new clinical staging system to predict survival for esophageal squamous cell carcinoma patients: Application of the nomogram

INTRODUCTION

Survival of patients with the same clinical stage varies widely and effective tools to evaluate the prognosis utilizing clinical staging information is lacking. This study aimed to develop a clinical nomogram for predicting survival of patients with Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma (ESCC).

MATERIALS AND METHODS

On the basis of data extracted from the SEER database (training cohort, n = 3375), we identified and integrated significant prognostic factors for nomogram development and internal validation. The model was then subjected to external validation with a separate dataset obtained from Jinling Hospital of Nanjing Medical University (validation cohort, n = 1187). The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined by concordance index (C-index), Akaike information criterion (AIC) and calibration curves. And risk group stratification was performed basing on the nomogram scores.

RESULTS

On multivariable analysis of the training cohort, seven independent prognostic factors were identified and included into the nomogram. Calibration curves presented good consistency between the nomogram prediction and actual observation for 1-, 3-, and 5-year OS. The AIC value of the nomogram was lower than that of the 8th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer TNM (AJCC) staging system, whereas the C-index of the nomogram was significantly higher than that of the AJCC staging system. The risk groups stratified by CART allowed significant distinction between survival curves within respective clinical TNM categories.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk stratification system presented better discriminative ability for survival prediction than current clinical staging system and might help clinicians in decision making.

A Prediction Model for Contralateral Central Neck Lymph Node Metastases in Unilateral Papillary Thyroid Cancer

The health problems caused by the frequent relapse of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) remain a worldwide concern since the morbidity rate of PTC ranks the highest among thyroid cancers. Residues from contralateral central lymph node metastases (con-CLNM) are the key reason for persistence or recurrence of unilateral papillary thyroid carcinoma (uni-PTC); however, the ability to assess the status of con-CLNM in uni-PTC patients is limited. To clarify the risk factors of con-CLNM, a total of 250 patients with uni-PTC who underwent total thyroidectomy and bilateral central lymph node dissection were recruited in this study. We compared the clinical, sonographic, and pathological characteristics of patients with con-CLNM to those without con-CLNM and established a nomogram for con-CLNM in uni-PTC. We found that male sex, without Hashimoto's thyroiditis, present capsular invasion, with ipsilateral lateral lymph node metastases, and the ratio of ipsilateral central lymph node metastases ≥0.16 were independent con-CLNM predictors of uni-PTC (ORs: 2.797, 0.430, 2.538, 2.202, and 26.588; 95% CIs: 1.182-6.617, 0.211-0.876, 1.223-5.267, 1.064-4.557, and 7.596-93.069, respectively). Additionally, a preoperative nomogram for the prediction of con-CLNM based on these risk factors showed good discrimination (C-index 0.881; 95% CI: 0.840-0.923; sensitivity 85.3%; specificity 76.0%) and good agreement via the calibration plot. Our study provided a way to quantitatively and accurately predict whether con-CLNM occurred in patients with uni-PTC, which may guide surgeons to evaluate the nodal status and perform tailored therapeutic central lymph node dissection.

Ultrasound-Guided Radiofrequency Ablation Versus Surgical Resection for the Treatment of T1bN0M0 Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma in Different Age Groups

PURPOSE

We aimed to compare the efficacy and safety of radiofrequency ablation (RFA) to that of surgical resection (SR) in patients with T1bN0M0 papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) in different age groups.

METHODS

Totally, 204 patients with an isolated, solitary, intrathyroidal T1bN0M0 PTC, who underwent either RFA (n=94) or SR (n=110) between April 2014 and December 2019, were retrospectively enrolled and were divided into two subgroups according to age (<45 years, ≧45 years). Patients with pathologically aggressive or advanced lesions were excluded from the study. Tumor progression and procedural complications were the primary and secondary endpoints, respectively. Tumor recurrence in situ, newly discovered tumors, lymph node involvement, or distant metastases indicated tumor progression. Complications included pain, fever, voice change, choking, numbness in the limbs, and cardiac events. Incidence rates of all endpoint events were compared between different age subgroups.

RESULTS

There were no significant differences in age, sex, and tumor size between the treatment groups. While the RFA group incurred less cost and experienced significantly shorter operative duration than the SR group, no significant differences were observed in incidences of both tumor progression and complications. Further, subgroup analysis of patients <45 years versus those ≧45 years showed no significant differences in the incidence of tumor progression and complications within or between different treatment groups. Older patients in the SR group incurred higher hospital costs than younger counterparts, but this difference was not observed in the RFA group.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results indicated that RFA had a similar prognosis as that of SR but was associated with lower overall cost in both young (<45 years) and middle-aged patients (≧45 years) with T1bN0M0 PTC. Therefore, RFA may be an effective and safe alternative to surgery for the treatment of patients with T1bN0M0 PTC.

Impact of the 8th Edition of the AJCC-TNM Staging System on Estimated Cancer-Specific Survival in Patients Aged 45-54 Years at Diagnosis with Differentiated Thyroid Carcinoma: A Single Center Report

BACKGROUND

The 8^th edition of the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system changed the age cutoff for risk stratification of differentiated thyroid carcinoma (DTC), downgrading patients between 45 and 54 years to stage I or II. The aim of our study was to assess cancer-specific survival (CSS) in patients aged 45-54 years, in order to document the prognostic capability of the last edition of the staging system.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed the medical records of 172 patients that from January 1^st, 2005, to May 31^st, 2017, were diagnosed at our institution with DTC when aged 45-54 years. We restaged patients according to the 8^th edition of the staging system and estimated CSS.

RESULTS

101 out of 172 patients (58.7%) were reallocated to a lower stage. Of the 101 downstaged patients, 88 (88.9%) showed a high or intermediate American Thyroid Association (ATA) risk of recurrence. We recorded no cancer-specific deaths.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk of cancer-specific mortality in patients aged 45-54 years with DTC is low, supporting the prognostic capability of the 8^th edition of the staging system. However, we recommend to consider carefully the significant proportion of patients at intermediate or high risk of recurrence in this group of patients.

Rethinking the 8th AJCC System: Is It Suitable for Patients Aged <55 Years With Stage T4N1M0 Follicular Variant of Papillary Thyroid Carcinoma to Be Placed in Stage I?

Purpose

The newest (8th) edition of the TNM staging system published in 2017. In this edition, some significant changes happened from the previous edition. As a result, down-staging appeared in nearly one third of DTC patients. However, we don’t know whether the new system predicts the survival of FVPTC patients accurately. Therefore, it is necessary to thoroughly evaluate the correlation between the new system and survival prediction in terms of FVPTC.

Methods

We enrolled 17,662 FVPTC patients from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database. Factors associated with survival were identified by Cox regression analyses. The mortality rates per 1,000 person-years were calculated and compared. Cox proportional hazards regression quantified the risk of survival, and survival curves were produced by Kaplan-Meier analyses using log-rank tests.

Results

Age at diagnosis, race, T-stage at diagnosis, distant metastasis, radiation therapy, and surgery were independent factors associated with cancer-specific survival. Patients aged <55 years with stage T4N1M0 FVPTC had higher mortality rates per 1,000 person-years than patients in the same stage according to the 8th AJCC System. Cox proportional hazards regression reflected that patients aged <55 years with stage T1-3, any N, M0 or T4N0M0 disease (p=0.001) and patients aged ≥55 years with T1-2N0M0 disease (p=0.004) had significantly lower risks of cancer-specific survival (CSS) than those aged <55 years with stage T4N1M0 disease. The CSS curve of patients aged <55 years with stage T4N1M0 disease showed a decline on comparison with others belonging to stage I (p<0.001); and the curve was even not different from patients in stage II and stage III (p>0.05).

Conclusion

Patients aged <55 years with stage T4N1M0 FVPTC had worse survival than patients in stage I; no difference was seen on comparison with stage II patients. We recommend this group of patients be upstaged in the 8th AJCC system.

Course and Predictive Factors of Incomplete Response to Therapy in Low- and Intermediate-Risk Thyroid Cancer

Context

Controversy surrounds the extent and intensity of the management of American Thyroid Association (ATA) intermediate- and low-risk patients with differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC). Understanding the natural history and factors that predict outcome is important for properly tailoring the management of these patients.

Objective

This work aims to study the natural course and predictive factors of incomplete response to therapy in low- and intermediate-risk DTC.

Patients and Methods

We studied a cohort of 506 consecutive patients [418 women (82.6%) and 88 men (17.4%)] with low and intermediate risk with a median age of 35 years (interquartile range [IQR], 27-46 years). We analyzed the natural course and the predictive factors of biochemically or structurally incomplete response.

Results

Of 506 patients studied, 297 (58.7%) patients were in the low-risk group and 209 (41.3%) were in the intermediate-risk group. Over a median follow-up of 102 months (IQR, 66-130 months), 458 (90.5%) patients achieved an excellent response, 17 (3.4%) had a biochemically incomplete status, and 31 (6.1%) had a structurally incomplete status. In univariable and multivariable analyses, age (≥ 33 years) (P < .0001, odds ratio 1.06 [1.04-1.08]) and lateral lymph node metastasis (LNM; P < .0001, odds ratio 3.2 [1.7-5.9]) were strong predictive factors for biochemically and structurally incomplete response to therapy. Sex, tumor size, multifocality, extrathyroidal extension, and lymphovascular invasion did not predict incomplete response to therapy.

Conclusions

Patients with low- and intermediate-risk DTC have favorable outcomes. Age and lateral LNM are strong predictors of an incomplete response to therapy. This suggests that older patients and those with LNM should be managed and followed up more actively than younger patients and those without LNM.

Nomograms Predict Overall Survival and Cancer-Specific Survival in Patients with Fibrosarcoma: A SEER-Based Study

Purpose

Due to the rarity, it is difficult to predict the survival of patients with fibrosarcoma. This study aimed to apply a nomogram to predict survival outcomes in patients with fibrosarcoma.

Methods

A total of 2235 patients with diagnoses of fibrosarcoma were registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results database, of whom 663 patients were eventually enrolled. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were used to identify independent prognostic factors. Nomograms were constructed to predict 3-year and 5‐year overall survival and cancer‐specific survival of patients with fibrosarcoma.

Results

In univariate and multivariate analyses of OS, age, sex, race, tumor stage, pathologic grade, use of surgery, and tumor size were identified as independent prognostic factors. Age, sex, tumor stage, pathologic grade, use of surgery, and tumor size were significantly associated with CSS. These characteristics were further included to establish the nomogram for predicting 3-year and 5-year OS and CSS. For the internal validation of the nomogram predictions of OS and CSS, the C-indices were 0.784 and 0.801.

Conclusion

We developed the nomograms that estimated 3-year and 5-year OS and CSS. These nomograms not only have good discrimination performance and calibration but also provide patients with better clinical benefits.

Management of Very Elderly Patients With Papillary Thyroid Cancer: Analysis of Outcomes for Surgery Versus Nonsurgery

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of patients with papillary thyroid cancer (PTC) who have undergone surgery is usually good. But surgery is risky for elderly patients. The outcomes of surgery or nonsurgery for the very elderly PTC patients have not been reported. Here, we investigated the effect of surgery or not on prognosis in very elderly PTC patients (aged ≥85 y).

METHODS

A retrospective study was performed based on data from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program. The outcomes of surgery and nonsurgery in very elderly PTC patients were compared using different statistical methods, including propensity score matching.

RESULTS

A total of 1196 very elderly patients with PTC were enrolled in the study. Patients who underwent surgery (n = 871) had a much better prognosis than those who did not (n = 325) in both overall survival and cancer-specific survival (P < 0.001). In the multivariate analysis, nonsurgery was an independent predictor for both overall survival (hazard ratio = 2.066; P < 0.001) and cancer-specific survival (hazard ratio = 2.768; P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Surgery is positively associated with an improved prognosis of PTC patients aged ≥85 y and is still suggested for these patients after appropriate risk assessment.

Prognostic value of a new staging system based on the retrieved number and metastatic rate of LNs in gastric cancer with ≤15 retrieved LNs

OBJECTIVE

To investigate a reasonable lymph node (N) staging system for gastric cancer patients with ≤15 retrieved lymph nodes (LNs).

METHODS

The clinicopathological and follow-up data of patients with ≤15 LNs were obtained from the US Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database to analyze the impact of the number of retrieved LNs and metastatic status on the prognosis. In addition, external validation was achieved with data from two medical centers in China.

RESULTS

A total of 18,139 gastric cancer patients with 1-15 retrieved LNs from the SEER database were enrolled and randomly divided into the training group and the internal validation group. A new LN staging system, mNr staging (mNr0-4; 5 stages), was established according to the number of retrieved LNs and the metastatic rate. Compared with the TNM and TNrM staging systems (established by Wang J; misclassification rates of 50.4% and 62.5%, respectively), the mTNrM staging system had a lower misclassification rate (23.4%). Furthermore, there was a significant difference in the 5-year overall survival (OS) rate between the mTNrM staging subgroups (p < 0.05); however, no significant difference was found in the 5-year OS rate of partial adjacent stages in the TNM (8th edition) and TNrM (p > 0.05) staging systems. Similar results were obtained in the external validation cohort.

CONCLUSION

mNr and mTNrM staging systems can efficiently distinguish a survival difference in patients who undergo gastrectomy with ≤15 retrieved LNs, with more accurate predictions of the 5-year OS rate of patients compared with the TNM and TNrM staging systems.

The impact of age on the survival outcomes and risk of radiation pneumonitis in patients with unresectable locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer receiving chemoradiotherapy

Background

Chemoradiotherapy is the recommended treatment for patients with unresectable locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). This study aimed to determine the impact of age on the survival outcomes and risk of radiation pneumonitis (RP) in patients with unresectable locally advanced NSCLC.

Methods

The data of patients with unresectable locally advanced NSCLC who were treated with radiotherapy (RT), sequential chemoradiotherapy, or concurrent chemoradiotherapy between January, 2013, and December, 2017, in our institution were retrospectively reviewed and analyzed. Student’s t-test and χ² test were used to evaluate the differences between groups divided by optimal cutoff. Survival rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method, and multivariate cox regression was performed to determine the prognostic factors for survival outcomes.

Results

A total of 749 patients were included in this analysis. Based on the optimal cutoff, the patients were stratified into two age groups: <65 years old (the younger group, n=482) and ≥65 years old (the older group, n=267). The older group had more patients with poor Karnofsky Performance Score (KPS), squamous cell sarcoma (SCC), and IIIA stage than the younger group. The older patients were more likely to have received RT alone (40.1%) and less likely to have received concurrent chemoradiotherapy (cCRT) (26.6%) than the younger patients (8.1% and 54.8%, respectively, P<0.001). The median overall survival (OS) was 33 months (95% CI: 29–37 months) and 21 months (95% CI: 18–27 months) for the younger group and the older group, respectively (P<0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that age had a significant independent association with OS (HR, 1.25; 95% CI: 1.01–1.55) after adjustment for covariates. The incidences of RP, symptomatic RP, and severe RP were similar between the two groups, but the incidence of fatal RP was higher in the older group (4.5% vs. 1.7%, P=0.039).

Conclusions

The clinical characteristics of the older patients in our study differed from those of the younger patients, and the older patients were more likely to choose conservative treatment. OS was longer in the older patients and more cases of fatal RP occurred in the older group.

Risk Factors for Cancer-specific Mortality and Cardiovascular Mortality in Patients With Diffuse Large B-cell Lymphoma

BACKGROUND

The purpose of this study was to assess the risk factors for cancer-specific mortality and cardiovascular mortality in patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

A retrospective cohort study involving patients with DLBCL who were registered in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was performed. The risk factors for cancer-specific mortality and cardiovascular mortality were analyzed using the competing risk regression model.

RESULTS

A total of 62,950 patients with DLBCL were enrolled, of which 23,302 (37.50%) died of cancer and 2940 (4.70%) died of cardiovascular disease. The competing risk multivariate analysis displayed that age at diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR], 1.033; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.032-1.034), marriedstatus (HR, 1.293; 95% CI, 1.241-1.347), black race (HR, 1.079; 95% CI, 1.021-1.139), and tumor stage (II: HR, 1.143; 95%CI, 1.095-1.192; III: HR, 1.459; 95% CI, 1.395-1.526; IV: HR, 1.961; 95% CI. 1.889-2.035) were the risk factors for cancer-specific mortality, but not female gender (HR, 0.938; 95% CI, 0.913,0.965) or treatment modalities (chemotherapy: HR, 0.522; 95% CI, 0.505-0.540; radiotherapy: HR, 0.782; 95% CI, 0.728-0.839; chemotherapy + radiotherapy: HR, 0.422; 95% CI, 0.403-0.441). Age at diagnosis (HR, 1.059; 95% CI, 1.055-1.062) and black race (HR, 1.246; 95% CI, 1.067-1.456) were the risk factors for cardiovascular mortality rather than female gender (HR, 0.803; 95% CI, 0.743-0.867) and married status (HR, 0.841; 95% CI, 0.745-0.950).

CONCLUSIONS

Age at diagnosis, married status, black race, and higher tumor stage are associated with an increased risk of cancer-specific mortality in patients with DLBCL, whereas age at diagnosis and black race are associated with a higher risk of cardiovascular mortality.