High incidence and increasing prevalence of MS in Enna (Sicily), southern Italy

Multiple sclerosis epidemiological trends in Italy highlight the environmental risk factors

Italy is definitely a high-risk country for multiple sclerosis (MS). Over the last 50 years, several epidemiological studies, including longitudinal surveys, have disclosed that MS incidence and prevalence in Italy mainland and Islands (Sardinia and Sicily) have progressively increased, picturing a semi-parabolic curve. Based on the comprehensive scrutiny of 58 papers, we conclude that the latitude risk gradient does not fit to the Italian map of MS. The genetic heterogeneity of the Italian ethnicities, that likely forms the basis of MS predisposition, does not account for the dramatic increase of MS incidence and prevalence observed in Italy over the last half century that, rather, seems better explained by the effect of environmental factors.

Multiple Sclerosis Presenting with Sixth Nerve Palsy in a Child

We report a child with multiple sclerosis who presented with sixth nerve palsy. She is a twelve-year-old Bahraini female presented to the ophthalmology department complaining of double vision. She also had imbalance and paraesthesia. Extraocular muscle examination showed restriction of abduction in the right eye. There was no change in vision. MRI showed right eye optic neuritis (ON) and demyelination which was indicative of multiple sclerosis (MS). Ocular coherence tomography (OCT) showed thinning of nerve fibres of both eyes which was consistent with subclinical optic neuritis. Neurological examination showed brisk knee jerk on the left side and incoordination of movement on the same side. Disability Status Scale (EDSS) showed a score of 3.0. She was given Solu-medrol 500 mg intravenously (IV) in addition to omeprazole 40 mg IV and Vitamin D3 (cholecalciferol) 50,000 IU cap weekly for 8 weeks and Neurorubine forte tablets (vitamin B1, 6, 12) once a day for 2 months. She became asymptomatic in her follow-up visits. Children with MS can present as sixth cranial nerve palsy. Clinicians should have a high index of suspicion for early diagnosis and treatment. In addition to MRI, OCT is a useful diagnostic tool for optic neuritis and MS especially in children.

Incidence of multiple sclerosis in the province of Catania. A geo-epidemiological study

BACKGROUND

An increasing incidence of MS in the city of Catania was reported during 1975-2004, with a higher incidence along the south-eastern flank of the Mt.Etna. We evaluated the incidence of MS in the entire province of Catania during 2005-2015 and the spatial distribution of MS-cases using a cluster analysis.

METHODS

Patients were considered as incident MS-cases if they fulfilled the revised McDonald criteria for MS during 2005-2015 and were residents in the province of Catania at the time of disease onset. Cluster analysis was performed using both LISA and Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. Residence address at disease onset was considered for each case. Communalities were assessed considering the centroid of their inhabited area.

RESULTS

A total of 973 MS-cases were identified. Mean annual incidence risk was 8.2/100,000 person-years (95%CI 7.7-8.7), significantly higher among women (10.5/100,000 versus 5.7/100,000). LISA identified a spatial aggregation of MS-cases in the eastern side of the province of Catania and Kulldorff's statistics confirmed the existence of a statistically significant spatial cluster in this area (SIR 1.23,95%CI 1.08-1.23, p-value 0.04).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study confirms a high incidence of MS in the province of Catania and the presence of a spatial cluster along the eastern side of the province. This area is considered the most exposed to volcanogenic ashes due to the prevailing westerly to north-westerly trade winds. Even if such distribution could be related with a greater exposure to volcanogenic metals, further studies are needed to explore possible alternative hypotheses.

Estimated prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Italy in 2015

Italy is a high risk area for multiple sclerosis (MS) as confirmed by the numerous prevalence and incidence studies conducted in several regions/districts of the country. Nevertheless, there are no recent published epidemiological data, nor studies about the total prevalence of MS in Italy. Our aim was to update as of 2015 the prevalence rates of MS in different geographical areas using already published epidemiological studies, and to estimate the overall prevalence of the disease in Italy. We made a search in MEDLINE database of all published studies on epidemiology of MS in Italy. Then, we applied, to the already published prevalence data, the last published incidence and mortality rates to recalculate, as of 2015, the prevalence of MS. So, we calculated the mean prevalence rate from our extrapolations, and we applied it to the population in 2015 to estimate the number of MS patients in Italy. Our prevalence extrapolations ranged from 122 to 232 cases/100,000 in the mainland and Sicily, with an average of 176/100,000, and from 280 to 317 cases/100,000 in Sardinia with an average of 299/100,000. Applying these media to the Italian population in 2015, we obtained an estimate of more than 109,000 MS patients in Italy. Our estimates were higher than the latest published rates but consistent with the annual increase of prevalence due to incidence that exceeds mortality, with the increase of survival and, maybe, with the probable increase of incidence.

The risk of smoking on multiple sclerosis: a meta-analysis based on 20,626 cases from case-control and cohort studies

Background. Multiple sclerosis (MS) has become a disease that represents a tremendous burden on patients, families, and societies. The exact etiology of MS is still unclear, but it is believed that a combination of genetic and environmental factors contribute to this disease. Although some meta-analyses on the association between smoking and MS have been previously published, a number of new studies with larger population data have published since then. Consequently, these additional critical articles need to be taken into consideration.

Method. We reviewed articles by searching in PubMed and EMBASE. Both conservative and non-conservative models were used to investigate the association between smoking and the susceptibility to MS. We also explored the effect of smoking on the susceptibility to MS in strata of different genders and smoking habits. The association between passive smoking and MS was also explored.

Results.The results of this study suggest that smoking is a risk factor for MS (conservative model: odds ratio (OR) 1.55, 95% CI [1.48–1.62], p < 0.001; non-conservative model: 1.57, 95% CI [1.50–1.64], p < 0.001). Smoking appears to increase the risk of MS more in men than in women and in current smokers more than in past smokers. People who exposed to passive smoking have higher risk of MS than those unexposed.

Conclusion.This study demonstrated that exposure to smoking is an important risk factor for MS. People will benefit from smoking cessation, and policymakers should pay attention to the association between smoking and MS.

Epidemiology and clinical record of multiple sclerosis in selected countries: a systematic review

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic inflammatory autoimmune disease of the central nervous system mainly affecting young adults. The aim of this paper is to review the literature concentrating the main national MS registries in selected countries of the world. We performed a systematic review to determine the MS epidemiology reported on prevalence, incidence, environmental factors, treatment, social consequences of MS and neurological disability or progression among MS-affected people. We got the information on the high-MS prevalence in Sardinia, Sweden or Sicily and on the effects of MS treatment in United States of America, Italy or Germany. We emphasized environmental factors taking into account as MS risk factors. We concluded that there were many descriptions of MS status in particular countries, but they were often insufficiently detailed and not uniform enough to compare it. The paper indicated an importance of the MS epidemiology in the light of the healthcare or quality of life of the MS patients, but further research is needed to optimize this issue.

Incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Europe: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is the most common cause of neurological disability in young adults worldwide and approximately half of those affected are in Europe. The assessment of differential incidence and prevalence across populations can reveal spatial, temporal and demographic patterns which are important for identifying genetic and environmental factors contributing to MS. However, study methodologies vary and the quality of the methods can influence the estimates. This study aimed to systematically review European studies of incidence and prevalence of MS and to provide a quantitative assessment of their methodological quality.

METHODS

A comprehensive literature search was performed to obtain all original population-based studies of MS incidence and prevalence in European populations conducted and published between January 1985 and January 2011. Only peer-reviewed full-text articles published in English or French were included. All abstracts were screened for eligibility and two trained reviewers abstracted the data and graded the quality of each study using a tool specifically designed for this study.

RESULTS

There were 123 studies that met the inclusion criteria. The study estimates were highly heterogeneous, even within regions or countries. Quality was generally higher in the more recent studies, which also tended to use current diagnostic criteria. Prevalence and incidence estimates tended to be higher in the more recent studies and were higher in the Nordic countries and in northern regions of the British Isles. With rare exceptions, prevalence and incidence estimates were higher in women with ratios as high as 3:1. Few studies examined ethnicity. Epidemiological data at the national level was uncommon and there were marked geographical disparities in available data, with large areas of Europe unrepresented and other regions well-represented in the literature. Only 37% of the studies provided standardized estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite the breadth of the literature on the epidemiology of MS in Europe, inter-study comparisons are hampered by the lack of standardization. Further research should focus on regions not yet studied and the evaluation of ethnic differences in MS prevalence and incidence. National-level studies using current diagnostic criteria, validated case definitions and similar age- and sex-standardization would allow better geographical comparisons.

Incidence of multiple sclerosis among European Economic Area populations, 1985-2009: the framework for monitoring

Background

A debate surrounding multiple sclerosis epidemiology has centred on time-related incidence increases and the need of monitoring. The purpose of this study is to reassess multiple sclerosis incidence in the European Economic Area.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of literature from 1965 onwards and integrated elements of original research, including requested or completed data by surveys authors and specific analyses.

Results

The review of 5323 documents yielded ten studies for age- and sex-specific analyses, and 21 studies for time-trend analysis of single data sets. After 1985, the incidence of multiple sclerosis ranged from 1.12 to 6.96 per 100,000 population, was higher in females, tripled with latitude, and doubled with study midpoint year. The north registered increasing trends from the 1960s and 1970s, with a historic drop in the Faroe Islands, and fairly stable data in the period 1980-2000; incidence rose in Italian and French populations in the period 1970-2000, in Evros (Greece) in the 1980s, and in the French West Indies in around 2000.

Conclusions

We conclude that the increase in multiple sclerosis incidence is only apparent, and that it is not specific to women. Monitoring of multiple sclerosis incidence might be appropriate for the European Economic Area.

Geomagnetic disturbances may be environmental risk factor for multiple sclerosis: an ecological study of 111 locations in 24 countries

BACKGROUND

We noticed that a hypothesis based on the effect of geomagnetic disturbances (GMD) has the ability to explain special features of multiple sclerosis (MS). Areas around geomagnetic 60 degree latitude (GM60L) experience the greatest amount of GMD. The easiest way to evaluate our hypothesis was to test the association of MS prevalence (MSP) with angular distance to geomagnetic 60 degree latitude (AMAG60) and compare it with the known association of MS with geographical latitude (GL). We did the same with angular distance to geographic 60 degree latitude (AGRAPH60) as a control.

METHODS

English written papers with MSP keywords, done in Europe (EUR), North America (NA) or Australasia (AUS) were retrieved from the PubMed. Geomagnetic coordinates were determined for each location and AMAG60 was calculated as absolute value of numerical difference between its geomagnetic latitude from GM60L. By an ecological study with using meta-regression analyses, the relationship of MSP with GL, AMAG60 and AGRAPH60 were evaluated separately. MSP data were weighted by square root of number of prevalent cases. Models were compared by their adjusted R square (AR2) and standard error of estimate (SEE).

RESULTS

111 MSP data were entered in the study. In each continent, AMAG60 had the best correlation with MSP, the largest AR2 (0.47, 0.42 and 0.84 for EUR, NA and AUS, respectively) and the least SEE. Merging both hemispheres data, AMAG60 explained 56% of MSP variations with the least SEE (R = 0.75, AR2 = 0.56, SEE = 57), while GL explained 17% (R = 0.41, AR2 = 0.17, SEE = 78.5) and AGRAPH60 explained 12% of that variations with the highest SEE (R = 0.35, AR2 = 0.12, SEE = 80.5).

CONCLUSIONS

Our results confirmed that AMAG60 is the best describer of MSP variations and has the strongest association with MSP distribution. They clarified that the well-known latitudinal gradient of MSP may be actually a gradient related to GM60L. Moreover, the location of GM60L can elucidate why MSP has parabolic and linear gradient in the north and south hemisphere, respectively. This preliminary evaluation supported that GMD can be the mysterious environmental risk factor for MS. We believe that this hypothesis deserves to be considered for further validation studies.

National estimate of multiple sclerosis incidence in France (2001–2007)

Background:

In France, the incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) is not well known, and MS is one of the 30 long-term illnesses for which patients are covered for 100% of their health care costs.

Objective:

To estimate the incidence of MS in France and its geographic variations.

Methods:

We estimated the national rate for notification of MS to the main French health insurance system, and its confidence interval (CI), between November 2000 and October 2007, which covers 87% of the population. We analysed geographic variations using a Bayesian approach.

Results:

Between November 2000 and October 2007, among a covered population of 52,449,871, some 28,682 individuals were registered as having MS. After age standardization according to the European population, the notification rate for MS was 6.8 per 100,000 (6.7–6.9), 9.8 (9.7–10.0) in women and 3.7 (3.6–3.8) in men. When the under-notification rate (11.5% and 29%) was taken into account, the notification rate per 100,000 inhabitants was estimated between 7.6 and 8.8. The notification rate was higher in north-eastern France, and lower on the Atlantic coast and in the Alps as well as on both sides of the Rhône River.

Conclusions:

This study, conducted on a representative French population, provides for the first time national estimates of MS incidence between November 2000 and October 2007.

Multiple sclerosis prevalence in Malaga, Southern Spain estimated by the capture–recapture method

Background: Although not definitively proven, there is commonly accepted to be a latitudinal gradient in the distribution of multiple sclerosis (MS), which is more frequent in temperate zones. The European Mediterranean countries are situated in a zone of median frequency, although ever increasing figures have been noted in the last decades.

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the current prevalence rate of MS in the province of Malaga, Southern Spain.

Methods: The capture–recapture method (CRM) uses independent sources of data and permits the number of non-registered cases of a given disease to be estimated, and by doing so, to avoid ascertainment bias.

Results: Use of this method showed the estimated prevalence rate of MS in the province of Malaga, Southern Spain, to be 125/105 (95% confidence interval: 102/105–169/105), higher than the figures published previously.

Conclusions: Although we recognize that these data need to be confirmed in further studies and in other areas of the country using a similar method, we believe this study is the first to find such high figure of prevalence, being very similar to the figures reported in recent years in other southern European countries.

Multiple sclerosis: where will we be in 2020?

The past decade has seen a surge of research interest in multiple sclerosis and an accelerated expansion of investigative efforts into multiple sclerosis therapeutics. Investigators have continued dissecting the complex immunological perturbations that may contribute to the disease and made major advances in understanding the genetics of multiple sclerosis. This article addresses current investigative issues and offers predictions about where the understanding and treatment of multiple sclerosis may stand at the end of the 21st century's second decade.

Epidemiology of multiple sclerosis in south-western Sardinia

BACKGROUND

Sardinia is a known high-risk area for multiple sclerosis (MS), but no data for south-western Sardinia (SWS) are available. SWS has a genetically homogeneous population, apart from St Peter Island, and represents a peculiar environment related to the industrial, mineralogical and military economy.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate prevalence and incidence and to evaluate temporal trends and geographical distribution of MS in SWS.

METHODS

MS prevalence was evaluated on 31 December 2007 and crude mean annual incidence rate was defined between 2003 and 2007. Temporal trend in MS incidence was assessed using the Armitage test. To identify MS clusters, Standard Morbidity Ratio (SMR) was calculated for each village and geographical distribution prevalence by means of a Bayesian hierarchical model.

RESULTS

Total crude prevalence rate was 210.4 (95% CI 186.3-234.5): 280.3 (95% CI 241.4-319.3) for females, 138 (95% CI 110.1-165.8) for males. The crude mean annual incidence rate was 9.7/100,000 (95% CI 3.4-13.2): 4.7/100,000 (95% CI 2.4-17.0) and 14.6/100,000 (95% CI 11.8-34.8) for males and females respectively. MS incidence has increased over the last 50 years. Cluster analysis showed an SMR of 0.2 (95% CI 0.05-0.68, p = 0.002) on the island of San Pietro, and 2.0 (95% CI 1.35-2.95, p = 0.001) in Domusnovas. Spatial distribution of MS was confirmed by Bayesian geographical analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

Our data confirm Sardinia as a high-risk area for MS and support the relevance of genetic factors in MS, as evidenced in St Peter Island. However, we found an unexpectedly high MS prevalence in one village, in particular in males, suggesting an environmental influence on MS occurrence.

Gender issues in multiple sclerosis: an update

Although multiple sclerosis (MS) affects both women and men, women are more susceptible to MS than men. Accumulating evidence indicates that the incidence and prevalence of MS is increasing, more so in women than in men. Owing to pregnancy, differing hormonal states and distinct social roles, the impact of MS differs between women and men. Since Patricia K Coyle published a review on gender issues in MS, multiple studies have added to the body of knowledge. This update will summarize the current thinking on gender-related issues in MS and we will address incidence and prevalence, hormonal factors, pregnancy and breastfeeding, genetics, course and prognosis, imaging, treatment and psychosocial aspects. Future progression within this field will help elucidate the cause of and define the treatment of MS.

Increasing frequency of multiple sclerosis in Catania, Sicily: a 30-year survey

Background and Objective: The objective of this study was to determine the prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) and its temporal profiles from 1975 to 2005 in the city of Catania.

Methods: The incidence of MS from 1975 to 31 December 1999 had been previously investigated by the same group. The frequency of MS in the community of Catania from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2004 was studied in a population of 313,110 inhabitants (2001 census). All patients who satisfied Poser’s criteria were considered as prevalent and incident cases.

Results: Three hundred and ninety-eight patients with MS who had experienced the clinical onset of the disease before 31 December 2004 were found in a population of 313,110 inhabitants. The prevalence rate was 127.1/100,000 [95% confidence interval (CI) 115.1–140.4]. From 2000 to 2004, 108 patients with MS had clinical onset of the disease . The mean annual incidence was 7.0/100,000 (95% CI 5.7–13.7) and was higher in women (8.4/100,000; 95% CI 6.4–10.5) than in men (5.3/100,000; 95% CI 3.7–7.2). The mean length of time between the date of clinical onset and the date of the diagnosis was 1.4 ± 1.7 years. During the last 30 years the incidence of MS in this population increased from 1.3/100,000 during the first quinquennium (1975–9) to 7.0/100,000 during 2000–4.

Conclusions: Incidence rates have further increased in this population, suggesting that the risk of MS is still increasing.

The changing demographic pattern of multiple sclerosis epidemiology

The uneven distribution of multiple sclerosis (MS) across populations can be attributed to differences in genes and the environment and their interaction. Prevalence and incidence surveys could be affected by inaccuracy of diagnosis and ascertainment, and prevalence also depends on survival. These sources of error might play a part in the geographical and temporal variations. Our literature search and meta-regression analyses indicated an almost universal increase in prevalence and incidence of MS over time; they challenge the well accepted theory of a latitudinal gradient of incidence of MS in Europe and North America, while this gradient is still apparent for Australia and New Zealand; and suggest a general, although not ubiquitous, increase in incidence of MS in females. The latter observation should prompt epidemiological studies to focus on changes in lifestyle in females. New insights into gene-environment and gene-gene interactions complicate interpretations of demographic epidemiology and have made obsolete the idea of simple causative associations between genes or the environment and MS.

Temporal trends in the incidence of multiple sclerosis: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Multiple sclerosis (MS) has been traditionally considered to be more frequent in women and in regions more distant from the equator. However, recent reports suggest that the latitude gradient could be disappearing and that the female-to-male ratio among patients with MS has increased in the last decades. We have conducted a systematic review of incidence studies of MS to assess the overall incidence of MS and explore possible changes in the latitude gradient and the female-to-male ratio over time.

METHODS

Systematic review of incidence studies of MS published in Medline between 1966 and February 2007. Age- and sex-specific incidence rates were collected from eligible publications. We computed age-adjusted rates using the world population as standard, and assessed differences in rates according to latitude and period of case ascertainment. Additionally, we evaluated the association between period of case ascertainment and the female-to-male ratio.

RESULTS

The overall incidence rate of MS was 3.6 cases per 100,000 person-years (95% CI 3.0, 4.2) in women and 2.0 (95% CI 1.5, 2.4) in men. Higher latitude was associated with higher MS incidence, though this latitude gradient was attenuated after 1980, apparently due to increased incidence of MS in lower latitudes. The female-to-male ratio in MS incidence increased over time, from an estimated 1.4 in 1955 to 2.3 in 2000.

CONCLUSION

The latitude gradient present in older incidence studies of multiple sclerosis (MS) is decreasing. The female-to-male MS ratio has increased in the last five decades.

Prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis in Salerno (southern Italy) and its province

Many multiple sclerosis (MS) prevalence studies in Italian northern and central areas, since 1980, have put Italy in a high risk zone; none concerns southern Italy. The MS registry of Salerno Center was reviewed, including the city and 16 towns at different distances (9-149 km) better connected to our Center. Population screened: 259 681 persons (Salerno = 136 678; province = 123 003). Prevalence day was December 31, 2005. Data on 186 patients were collected of which 55 were males, 131 females; crude total prevalence = 71.6263 (62.03-82.303, ranging from 50.1128 (Oliveto Citra) to 431.499 (Controne). Salerno prevalence rate is 70.9697 (57.41-86.583); standardized = 72.02. Incidence rate ranges from 2.38585 (1.6-3.39) (1991-95) to 4.31997 (3.24-5.6) (2001-05). Our data can be underestimated because some patients could have skipped the local center. This emphasizes that the results, except for Sardinia, are comparable to Italian literature data. They confirm that this territory is a high risk area for MS. There is also an indirect indication against a latitude gradient for MS.

Multiple sclerosis in the province of Ferrara : evidence for an increasing trend

BACKGROUND

Epidemiological studies on the distribution of multiple sclerosis (MS) conducted in the Mediterranean area in the last two decades have disclosed a significant increase in frequency of the disease, indicating caution when a latitude-related model of MS is accepted. Previous descriptive surveys in the province of Ferrara, northern Italy, carried out by our own epidemiological research group, have established that this area is at high risk for MS.

OBJECTIVE

To confirm the above assumption and to update MS frequency estimates in this area.

DESIGN AND SETTING

We conducted a community-based intensive prevalence and incidence study, by adopting a complete enumeration approach.

RESULTS

On December 31, 2004, 423 patients (300 women and 123 men) suffering from definite or probable MS (Poser's criteria) living in the province of Ferrara, yielded a crude prevalence rate of 120.93 (95 % CI, 110.05-134.23) per 100,000, 164.26 for women and 73.59 for men. The average incidence from 1990 to 2003 was 4.35 per 100,000 (95 % CI, 3.77-4.99), 5.91 for women and 2.63 for men. The incidence rate,which was relatively stable during the previous 25 years (1965-1989) with a mean rate of 2.3 per 100,000, increased to a value of 3.39 per 100,000 in the period 1990-1994, 4.09 per 100,000 in the period 1995-1999 and 3.84 per 100,000 in the period 2000-2003.

CONCLUSIONS

These results confirm that in Ferrara MS occurs more frequently than suggested by the geographic- related distribution model and, based on other recent national surveys, support the view that northern Italy is a high-risk area for the disease. The marked increase in MS prevalence rate, in comparison with previous investigations, is in part due to the increasing survival of patients as a result of improved supportive care and the accumulation of new incidence cases owing to the reduction in diagnostic latency for better quality of neurological diagnostic procedures. The incidence in the province of Ferrara was found to slowly change with an incremental trend,which cannot only be attributed to improvements in diagnostic ability. Environmental risk factors in genetically predisposed people over time could be considered.

Western and Asian features of multiple sclerosis in Mexican Mestizos

OBJECTIVES

The objective of this study was to compare the clinical expression of MS in Mexican Mestizos with that of patients of European or Asian descent; as well as to compare the annual frequency of new cases with that observed in the previous decades.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

All patients with diagnosis of definite MS seen at the National Institute of Neurology and Neurosurgery of Mexico from January 1993 to December 2003 were studied (n=312). Sociodemographic and clinical characteristics were compared with reports of patients from either Western or Asian origin; the long-term disability score was analyzed according to gender, age of onset of MS and the initial symptom.

RESULTS

The clinical expression of MS in Mexican Mestizos shares some characteristics with both, Asian and Western forms of MS indicating that the genetic composition of Mexican Mestizos participates in the clinical expression of the disease. Also, at the prevalence date, the mean age of patients and the duration of the disease were lower in our patients than in MS patients from endemic countries suggesting a true increasing incidence in recent times, rather than only improved case ascertainment.

CONCLUSIONS

Clinical expression of MS in Mexican Mestizos shows the coexistence of some features common in European and in Asian cases.

Sex ratio of multiple sclerosis in Canada: a longitudinal study

BACKGROUND

Incidence of multiple sclerosis is thought to be increasing, but this notion has been difficult to substantiate. In a longitudinal population-based dataset of patients with multiple sclerosis obtained over more than three decades, we did not show a difference in time to diagnosis by sex. We reasoned that if a sex-specific change in incidence was occurring, the female to male sex ratio would serve as a surrogate of incidence change.

METHODS

Since environmental risk factors seem to act early in life, we calculated sex ratios by birth year in 27 074 Canadian patients with multiple sclerosis identified as part of a longitudinal population-based dataset.

FINDINGS

The female to male sex ratio by year of birth has been increasing for at least 50 years and now exceeds 3.2:1 in Canada. Year of birth was a significant predictor for sex ratio (p<0.0001, chi(2)=124.4; rank correlation r=0.84).

INTERPRETATION

The substantial increase in the female to male sex ratio in Canada seems to result from a disproportional increase in incidence of multiple sclerosis in women. This rapid change must have environmental origins even if it is associated with a gene-environment interaction, and implies that a large proportion of multiple sclerosis cases may be preventable in situ. Although the reasons why incidence of the disease is increasing are unknown, there are major implications for health-care provision because lifetime costs of multiple sclerosis exceed pound1 million per case in the UK.

Bayesian mapping of multiple sclerosis prevalence in the province of Pavia, northern Italy

The geographical analysis of a disease risk is particularly difficult when the disease is non-frequent and the area units are small. The practical use of the Bayesian modelling, instead of the classical frequentist one, is applied to study the geographical variation of multiple sclerosis (MS) across the province of Pavia, Northern Italy. 464 MS-affected individuals resident in the province of Pavia were identified on December 31st 2000. The overall prevalence was 94 per 100,000 inhabitants. This estimate indicates an increasing MS prevalence in the province, in accordance with the vast majority of the Italian areas where prevalence studies have been repeated. We mapped the geographical variation of MS prevalence across the 190 communes of the province both with a classical approach and a Bayesian approach. The frequentist approach produced an extremely dishomogeneous map, while the Bayesian map was much smoother and more interpretable. Our study underlines the usefulness of Bayesian methods to obtain reliable maps of disease prevalence and to identify possible clusters of disease where to carry out further epidemiological investigations.

Multiple sclerosis in G: Genes and geography

Multiple sclerosis (MS) shows uneven geographic distribution globally as well as within countries. In epidemiological studies we have previously demonstrated that there is a high-risk focus for MS in the southern Ostrobothnian region of western Finland. In genetic studies we recently identified haplotypes that associate with MS specifically in patients originating from southern Ostrobothnia suggesting a founder effect. Such haplotypes can be used as molecular tools for tracing common ancestry between patients in different geographic locations. In addition to providing clues to the historical origin, such a genetic archeological approach should help narrow the size of the shared haplotype, thus facilitating the identification of etiological variants and possibly define a superfamily of MS patients with common pathogenetic mechanisms.

A possible spatial and temporal cluster of multiple sclerosis in the town of Linguaglossa, Sicily

We carried out an epidemiological survey to determine prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis in the little town of Linguaglossa in the Province of Catania. We calculated prevalence rate as point prevalence at 1 January 2001 and incidence during 1991-2000. We studied the frequency of multiple sclerosis in the community of Linguaglossa in a population of 5,422 inhabitants in the 2001 census. The primary sources for the case ascertainment were the general practitioners of Linguaglossa, the local Italian Multiple Sclerosis Association and the neurological departments, Multiple Sclerosis Centers and private neurologists of the province of Catania. We considered as prevalent and incident cases all patients who satisfied the Poser's diagnostic criteria. We detected 11 patients with multiple sclerosis who had had the onset of disease on prevalent day (P.D.). The onset-adjusted prevalence rate was 203/100,000 (95% CI 107-352). Prevalence was higher in women (247/100,000) than in men (154/100,000). From 1991 to 2000, 10 subjects with MS had clinical onset of disease. The mean annual incidence risk was 18.2/100,000 (C. I. 95 % 5.9-42.5). Conversely in the same population prevalence on 1 January 1991 was 37/100,000 while the onset adjusted annual incidence risk during the previous decade (1981-1991) was 3.6/100,000. Prevalence and incidence rates of MS during the last decade in the little town of Linguaglossa are higher than those found in the same area during the previous ten years and also than those reported in other Sicilian and Italian surveys suggesting a possible cluster of MS.

The prevalence of multiple sclerosis in the north?west Italian province of Genoa

The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS), calculated as point prevalence on 31 December 1997, in the province of Genoa, North-western Italy.

METHODS

The province of Genoa is located in North-western Italy, an area of 1,835 km(2). On the point prevalence day the population consisted of 913,218 inhabitants. MS cases were identified by analysing archives of the hospitals with neurological or rehabilitation wards, neurologists serving the community, files of local chapters of the Italian MS society, all requests for oligoclonal bands analysis on CSF in the studied area. Patients included in the study were MS cases diagnosed before 31 December 1997 according to the Poser criteria resident in the province under study.

RESULTS

A total of 857 subjects were alive and residing in the province of Genoa on the prevalence day. The overall crude prevalence rate was 94 per 100,000 (95% CI 88-100); 291 were males (34%) with a crude prevalence of 67 per 100,000 (95 % CI 60-76) and 566 were females (66%) with a prevalence of 118 per 100,000 (95% CI 108-128). The female/male ratio was 1.9. When age and sex were adjusted to the Italian standard population of 1991 prevalence was 85 per 100,000. Five hundred and thirty two out of the 857 patients agreed to be interviewed. The interviewed sample was representative of the prevalence sample: sex and gender distributions were identical in the two samples. The overall mean age was 48 (+/-13) years (48 +/-12 years in males; 48+/-14 years in females). Mean disease duration was 15 (+/-10) years for males and 16 (+/-11) years for females. Two hundred and ninety one (55 %) subjects had a relapsing remitting (RR) clinical course, 150 (28%) were secondary progressive (SP) and 91 (17%) were primary progressive (PP). Mean EDSS score was 5 (+/- 2; median 5). The mean age at time of onset was 33 (+/-10) years for males and 32 (+/- 11) years for females. The disease onset was monosymptomatic in 76% (n=407) patients and polysymptomatic in 24% (n=125). The mean length of time between clinical onset and diagnosis was 5 (+/- 6) years.

CONCLUSION

We confirmed that the province of Genoa is a very high risk area for MS. We found a high rate of patients with a PP course; also the proportion of patients with high disability scores is greater compared to previous studies.

Multiple sclerosis in twins from continental Italy and Sardinia: A nationwide study

Knowledge about the balance between heritable and nonheritable risk in multiple sclerosis (MS) is based on twin studies in high-prevalence areas. In a study that avoided ascertainment limitations and directly compared continental Italy (medium-prevalence) and Sardinia (high-prevalence), we ascertained 216 pairs from 34,549 patients. This gives a twinning rate of 0.62% among MS patients, significantly less than that of the general population. In continental Italy, probandwise concordance was 14.5% (95% confidence interval, 5.1-23.8) for monozygotic and 4.0% (95% confidence interval, 0.8-7.1) for dizygotic twins. Results in Sardinia resemble those in northern populations but in limited numbers. Monozygotic concordance was 22.2% (95% confidence interval, 0-49.3) probandwise, but no concordant dizygotic pairs were identified. A questionnaire on 80 items possibly related to disease cause was administered to 70 twin pairs, 135 sporadic patients, and 135 healthy volunteers. Variables positively (7) or negatively (2) associated with predisposition and concordance in twins largely overlapped and were mainly linked to infection. If compared with previous studies, our data demonstrate that penetrance in twins appears to correlate with MS prevalence. They highlight the relevance of nonheritable variables in Mediterranean areas. The apparent underrepresentation of MS among Italian twins draws attention to protective factors, shared by twins, that may influence susceptibility.

Prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis in Las Palmas, Canary Islands, Spain

OBJECTIVES

To determine the prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in the city of Las Palmas (Canary Islands, Spain), geographically belonging to north-western Africa, but with European ancestry.

METHODS

This population-based survey was conducted for a period of 5 years (1998-2002) in a Sanitary District of Las Palmas city (28 degrees 20' N), with a population of 82,623 inhabitants. Multiple sources were periodically investigated for case ascertainment. Patients with definite and probable MS were included.

RESULTS

Sixty-four patients with MS were identified on prevalence day, December 31, 2002. According to Poser's criteria the crude prevalence rate was 77.5 per 100,000 (95% CI: 59.7-98.9). This rate decreased to 73.8 (95% CI: 56.5-94.8) according to McDonald's criteria. Age-adjusted rates for the world and European standard populations were 61.6 (95% CI: 47.1-78.9) and 70.6 (95% CI: 55-89), respectively. Prevalence was higher for women aged 25-44 years. In 17 patients onset of MS occurred within the study period. Average annual incidence was 4.1 per 100,000 (95% CI: 2.4-6.6).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence and incidence rates in Las Palmas city are close to those reported from Continental Spain and other countries of southern Europe with similar social and ethnic background. These results highlight the role of racial-ethnic factors in the genesis of MS.

Multiple Sclerosis in Southern Europe: Monreale City, Italy

BACKGROUND

Several follow-up studies showed increasing prevalence and incidence rates for multiple sclerosis (MS).

OBJECTIVE

To ascertain, throughout a follow-up study, the incidence and prevalence of MS in the city of Monreale, Sicily, southern Italy.

METHODS

We calculated crude and age- and sex-specific prevalence rates on December 31, 2000, and determined incidence rates for the period January 1, 1992 to December 31, 2000.

RESULTS

The prevalence of MS was 71.2 per 100,000 population (48,5/100,000 in men; 93,0/100,000 in women). The incidence rate of MS for the period 1992-2000 was 4.0/100,000 per year.

CONCLUSION

This study showed a nonsignificant increase in MS incidence rates in Monreale city for 1992-2000 compared to 1981-1991. Prevalence rates were similar to those of the previous follow-up study. Intervals between onset of symptoms and diagnosis seemed shorter than in prior studies. There is no evidence that the high prevalence and incidence rates have changed in this interval but numbers are too small for firm statements. These findings indicate that in Monreale city MS prevalence is stable and confirm Sicily as a high-risk area for MS.

Trends in prevalence and incidence of multiple sclerosis in Bajo Aragón, Spain

OBJECTIVE

Recent reports provide consistent evidence that Spain is an area of high risk for multiple sclerosis (MS) according to prevalence surveys. However, the studies of incidence are scarce. The objective of the current work is to analyse whether the increased prevalence of MS is accompanied by increasing incidence in the area of Bajo Aragón, northeastern Spain.

METHODS

The data of both prevalence and incidence were retrieved from a prospective register created in 1994 and which included patients with probable or definite MS. Crude and age-standardised rates were calculated from 1994 to 2002 and compared with those found retrospectively in the previous period of 1984-1993.

RESULTS

In January 2003, we found a prevalence rate of 75/100,000 (95% CI: 52-97) whereas it was 35/100,000 (95% CI: 20-50) in 1994. In a period of 9 years, 25 new cases were diagnosed in the area with a mean annual incidence rate of 4.6/100,000 (95% CI: 2.8-6.5; range: 1.6-13.6) in comparison to 17 new cases from 1984 to 1993 with a mean incidence rate of 3/100,000 (95% CI: 1.6-4.5). The standardised ratio of incidences was 1.44 (95% CI: 0.95-2.17) and, therefore, the difference of rates was not significant.

CONCLUSION

We conclude that the increase in prevalence of MS is more likely to be due to improvement on case ascertainment than to increasing incidence. Nonetheless, further prospective incidence studies in larger populations are warranted in Spain to elucidate whether the frequency of this disease is truly increasing.

Incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Olmsted County, Minnesota, 1985-2000

BACKGROUND

Epidemiologic data for multiple sclerosis (MS) in Olmsted County, MN, have been recorded for almost 100 years and have indicated that the increasing prevalence rate was likely due in part to an increasing incidence rate.

METHODS

All cases of MS diagnosed from 1985 to 2000 were identified using the centralized diagnostic index at the Mayo Clinic and the Rochester Epidemiology Program Project, a shared database of all medical practitioners in the county. Patients were required to have established residency at least 1 year prior to diagnosis of MS. Results were also age- and sex-adjusted to control for shifts in the population structure.

RESULTS

The raw prevalence of MS was determined to be 177 per 100,000 on December 1, 2000, and the raw incidence rate was 7.5 per 100,000 person-years at risk from 1985 to 2000.

CONCLUSIONS

After age and sex adjustment to a common population, these prevalence and incidence rates of MS appear to have been stable rather than increasing over the past 20 years.

A whole genome screen for linkage disequilibrium in multiple sclerosis performed in a continental Italian population

We have systematically screened the genome for evidence of linkage disequilibrium (LD) with multiple sclerosis (MS) by typing 6000 microsatellite markers in case-control and family based (AFBAC) cohorts from the Italian population. DNA pooling was used to reduce the genotyping effort involved. Four DNA pools were considered: cases (224 Italian MS patients), controls (231 healthy Italians), index (185 index cases from trio families) and parents (the 370 parents of the patient included in the Index pool), respectively. After refining analysis of the most promising 14 markers to emerge from this screening process, only marker D2S367 retained evidence for association.

Progressive increase in incidence and prevalence of multiple sclerosis in Newcastle, Australia: a 35-year study

The prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in Newcastle, Australia increased significantly between 1961 and 1981 and the incidence of the disease also increased between the decades 1950-1959 and 1971-1981. The present study sought to determine whether there has been a further increase in the frequency of MS in the subsequent 15 years, and to examine the potential factors underlying this change. The incidence, prevalence and clinical profile of multiple sclerosis were therefore re-examined in Newcastle, Australia in 1996 using comparable diagnostic criteria and methods to those employed in studies in the same region in 1961 and 1981. There has been a significant progressive increase in prevalence from 19.6 to 59.1 per 100,000 population and a significant increase in incidence from 1.2 to 2.4 per 100,000 population from 1961 to 1996. The most pronounced increase in prevalence was in females and in the age-group over 60 years, and there was also an increased incidence in females aged 20-29 years. There was little change in the age of disease onset, but duration of disease in females had increased substantially. The significant increase in prevalence is attributed to increased incidence, particularly in females; and to increased survival. Although such trends in prevalence have been observed in the Northern Hemisphere, this is the first such study in the Southern Hemisphere to show a longitudinal increase in prevalence and incidence over a period of this duration.

Multiple sclerosis in Malta in 1999: an update

OBJECTIVES

To ascertain the prevalence of multiple sclerosis (MS) in the islands of Malta and compare it with a previous study undertaken 21 years earlier, when a remarkably low prevalence was found.

METHOD

Deaths with MS on the death certificate since the last study were reviewed. Sources of information about new patients were the Hospital Activity Analysis scheme, the MS Society of Malta, the records of the state hospitals, long stay private hospitals and nursing homes, lists provided by the state pharmacies, and magnetic resonance imaging, cerebrospinal fluid, and evoked response studies. Prevalence day was 1 January 1999. The Poser classification was used.

RESULTS

Since 1978, 17 patients had died with a verified diagnosis of MS on the death certificate. They included all 10 deaths with MS from the original study and two immigrants. Fifty patients had clinically definite MS (CDMS) and 13 clinically probable MS (CPMS). The prevalence of CDMS was 13.2/100 000 (male 11.2, female 15.2). The prevalence of CDMS and CPMS combined was 16.7/100,000 (male 13.3, female 19.9). The annual incidence was 0.7/100,000. Twelve patients were found with CDMS among the 7213 immigrants resident in Malta (166/100,000). The expected rate was 1/100,000, determined at Maltese born rates. There were major changes in the population distribution during the 21 years between the two studies, with a big increase in the age groups with a high risk of MS. There is a longer expectation of life and the diagnosis in now made earlier.

CONCLUSION

Malta still has a low MS prevalence. In comparison with Sicily and other Mediterranean countries of Europe it offers an opportunity to ascertain the genetic and environmental factors responsible for the disease.