The role of selection and evolution in changing parturition date in a red deer population

How interacting anthropogenic pressures alter the plasticity of breeding time in two common songbirds

Phenological adjustment is the first line of adaptive response of vertebrates when seasonality is disrupted by climate change. The prevailing response is to reproduce earlier in warmer springs, but habitat changes, such as forest degradation, are expected to affect phenological plasticity, for example, due to loss of reliability of environmental cues used by organisms to time reproduction. Relying on a two-decade, country-level capture-based monitoring of common songbirds' reproduction, we investigated how habitat anthropization, here characterized by the rural-urban and forest-farmland gradients, affected the average phenology and plasticity to local temperature in two common species, the great tit Parus major and the blue tit Cyanistes caeruleus. We built a hierarchical model that simultaneously estimated fledging phenology and its response to spring temperatures based on the changes in the proportion of juveniles captured over the breeding season. Both species fledge earlier in warmer sites (blue tit: 2.94 days/°C, great tit: 3.83 days/°C), in warmer springs (blue tit: 2.49 days/°C, great tit: 2.75 days/°C) and in most urbanized habitats (4 days for blue tit and 2 days for great tit). The slope of the reaction norm of fledging phenology to spring temperature varied across sites in both species, but this variation was explained by habitat anthropization only in the deciduous forest specialist, the blue tit. In this species, the responses to spring temperature were shallower in agricultural landscapes and slightly steeper in more urban areas. Habitat anthropization did not explain variation in the slope of the reaction norm in the habitat-generalist species (great tit), for which mean fledgling phenology and plasticity were correlated (i.e., steeper response in later sites). The effects of habitat change on phenological reaction norms provide another way through which combined environmental degradations may threaten populations' persistence, to an extent depending on species and on the changes in their prey phenology and abundance.

Weak coupling between energetic status and the timing of reproduction in an Arctic ungulate

Bioenergetic constraints are the ultimate determinant of the timing of reproduction, and seasonal breeding is consequently a widely observed trait. Consistent with this, attention has focused on plasticity in reproductive phenology conceptualized as a response to concomitant advances in the phenology of the environmental energy supply caused by climate change. Few studies, however, have directly compared timing of reproduction with energetic status in free-living wild animals. Here we demonstrate that neither body mass nor adiposity are strong proximate predictors of date of conception in wild reindeer (Rangifer tarandus). Weak coupling between energetic status and the phenology of reproduction accounts for the increasing discrepancy between the phenology of forage (energy supply) and the phenology of reproduction (energy demand) observed across the last 2-4 decades in two populations of this species. The results emphasise that phenological plasticity is not a passive response to changes in energy supply but derives from the way in which environmental factors interact with the core control mechanisms that govern timing. Central in this respect is integration, within the rheostatic centres of the hypothalamus, of information on nutritional status with the circannual life-history calendar.

Micro-evolutionary response of spring migration timing in a wild seabird

In the context of rapid climate change, phenological advance is a key adaptation for which evidence is accumulating across taxa. Among vertebrates, phenotypic plasticity is known to underlie most of this phenological change, while evidence for micro-evolution is very limited and challenging to obtain. In this study, we quantified phenotypic and genetic trends in timing of spring migration using 8,032 dates of arrival at the breeding grounds obtained from observations on 1,715 individual common terns (Sterna hirundo) monitored across 27 years, and tested whether these trends were consistent with predictions of a micro-evolutionary response to selection. We observed a strong phenotypic advance of 9.3 days in arrival date, of which c. 5% was accounted for by an advance in breeding values. The Breeder's equation and Robertson's Secondary Theorem of Selection predicted qualitatively similar evolutionary responses to selection, and these theoretical predictions were largely consistent with our estimated genetic pattern. Overall, our study provides rare evidence for micro-evolution underlying (part of) an adaptive response to climate change in the wild, and illustrates how a combination of adaptive micro-evolution and phenotypic plasticity facilitated a shift towards earlier spring migration in this free-living population of common terns.

Reproductive tactics, birth timing and the risk-resource trade-off in an income breeder

In variable environments, habitats that are rich in resources often carry a higher risk of predation. As a result, natural selection should favour individuals that balance allocation of time to foraging versus avoiding predation through an optimal decision-making process that maximizes fitness. The behavioural trade-off between resource acquisition and risk avoidance is expected to be particularly acute during gestation and lactation, when the energetic demands of reproduction peak. Here, we investigated how reproductive female roe deer adjust their foraging activity and habitat use during the birth period to manage this trade-off compared with non-reproductive juveniles, and how parturition date constrains individual tactics of risk-resource management. Activity of reproductive females more than doubled immediately following parturition, when energy demand is highest. Furthermore, compared with non-reproductive juveniles, they increased their exposure to risk by using open habitat more during daytime and ranging closer to roads. However, these post-partum modifications in behaviour were particularly pronounced in late-parturient females who adopted a more risk-prone tactic, presumably to compensate for the growth handicap of their late-born offspring. In income breeders, individuals that give birth late may be constrained to trade risk avoidance for foraging during peak allocation to reproduction, with probable consequences for individual fitness.

Reproductive phenology is a repeatable, heritable trait linked to the timing of other life-history events in a migratory marine predator

Population-level shifts in reproductive phenology in response to environmental change are common, but whether individual-level responses are modified by demographic and genetic factors remains less well understood. We used mixed models to quantify how reproductive timing varied across 1772 female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) breeding at Marion Island in the Southern Ocean (1989-2019), and to identify the factors that correlate with phenological shifts within and between individuals. We found strong support for covariation in the timing of breeding arrival dates and the timing of the preceding moult. Breeding arrival dates were more repeatable at the individual level, as compared with the population level, even after accounting for individual traits (wean date as a pup, age and breeding experience) associated with phenological variability. Mother-daughter similarities in breeding phenology were also evident, indicating that additive genetic effects may contribute to between-individual variation in breeding phenology. Over 30 years, elephant seal phenology did not change towards earlier or later dates, and we found no correlation between annual fluctuations in phenology and indices of environmental variation. Our results show how maternal genetic (or non-genetic) effects, individual traits and linkages between cyclical life-history events can drive within- and between-individual variation in reproductive phenology.

Plastic responses to warmer climates: a semi-natural experiment on lizard populations

Facing warming environments, species can exhibit plastic or microevolutionary changes in their thermal physiology to adapt to novel climates. Here, using semi-natural mesocosms, we experimentally investigated over two successive years whether a 2°C-warmer climate produces selective and inter- and intragenerational plastic changes in the thermal traits (preferred temperature and dorsal coloration) of the lizard Zootoca vivipara. In a warmer climate, the dorsal darkness, dorsal contrast, and preferred temperature of adults plastically decreased and covariances between these traits were disrupted. While selection gradients were overall weak, selection gradients for darkness were slightly different between climates and in the opposite direction to plastic changes. Contrary to adults, male juveniles were darker in warmer climates either through plasticity or selection and this effect was strengthened by intergenerational plasticity when juveniles' mothers also experienced warmer climates. While the plastic changes in adult thermal traits alleviate the immediate overheating costs of warming, its opposite direction to selective gradients and to juveniles' phenotypic responses may slow down evolutionary shifts toward phenotypes that are better adapted to future climates. Our study demonstrates the importance of considering inter- and intragenerational plasticity along with selective processes to better understand adaptation and population dynamics in light of climate change.

Plasticity and repeatability in spring migration and parturition dates with implications for annual reproductive success

In seasonal environments, animals should be adapted to match important life-history traits to when environmental conditions are optimal. Most animal populations therefore reproduce when resource abundance is highest to increase annual reproductive success. When facing variable, and changing, environments animals can display behavioural plasticity to acclimate to changing conditions. Behaviours can further be repeatable. For example, timing of behaviours and life history traits such as timing of reproduction may indicate phenotypic variation. Such variation may buffer animal populations against the consequences of variation and change. Our goal was to quantify plasticity and repeatability in migration and parturition timing in response to timing of snowmelt and green-up in a migratory herbivore (caribou, Rangifer tarandus, n = 132 ID-years) and their effect on reproductive success. We used behavioural reaction norms to quantify repeatability in timing of migration and timing of parturition in caribou and their plasticity to timing of spring events, while also quantifying phenotypic covariance between behavioural and life-history traits. Timing of migration for individual caribou was positively correlated with timing of snowmelt. The timing of parturition for individual caribou varied as a function of inter-annual variation in timing of snowmelt and green-up. Repeatability for migration timing was moderate, but low for timing of parturition. Plasticity did not affect reproductive success. We also did not detect any evidence of phenotypic covariance among any traits examined-timing of migration was not correlated with timing of parturition, and neither was there a correlation in the plasticity of these traits. Repeatability in migration timing suggests the possibility that the timing of migration in migratory herbivores could evolve if the repeatability detected in this study has a genetic or otherwise heritable basis, but observed plasticity may obviate the need for an evolutionary response. Our results also suggest that observed shifts in caribou parturition timing are due to plasticity as opposed to an evolutionary response to changing conditions. While this provides some evidence that populations may be buffered from the consequences of climate change via plasticity, a lack of repeatability in parturition timing could impede adaptation as warming increases.

The Unusual Value of Long-Term Studies of Individuals: The Example of the Isle of Rum Red Deer Project

Long-term studies of individuals enable incisive investigations of questions across ecology and evolution. Here, we illustrate this claim by reference to our long-term study of red deer on the Isle of Rum, Scotland. This project has established many of the characteristics of social organization, selection, and population ecology typical of large, polygynous, seasonally breeding mammals, with wider implications for our understanding of sexual selection and the evolution of sex differences, as well as for their population dynamics and population management. As molecular genetic techniques have developed, the project has pivoted to investigate evolutionary genetic questions, also breaking new ground in this field. With ongoing advances in genomics and statistical approaches and the development of increasingly sophisticated ways to assay new phenotypic traits, the questions that long-term studies such as the red deer study can answer become both broader and ever more sophisticated. They also offer powerful means of understanding the effects of ongoing climate change on wild populations.

Maternal effects do not resolve the paradox of stasis in birth weight in a wild red deer populaton

In natural populations, quantitative traits seldom show short-term evolution at the rate predicted by evolutionary models. Resolving this "paradox of stasis" is a key goal in evolutionary biology, as it directly challenges our capacity to predict evolutionary change. One particularly promising hypothesis to explain the lack of evolutionary responses in a key offspring trait, body weight, is that positive selection on juveniles is counterbalanced by selection against maternal investment in offspring growth, given that reproduction is costly for the mothers. Here, we used data from one of the longest individual-based studies of a wild mammal population to test this hypothesis. We first showed that despite positive directional selection on birth weight, and heritable variation for this trait, no genetic change has been observed for birth weight over the past 47 years in the study population. Contrarily to our expectation, we found no evidence of selection against maternal investment in birth weight-if anything, selection favors mothers that produce large calves. Accordingly, we show that genetic change in birth weight over the study period is actually lower than that predicted from models including selection on maternal performance; ultimately our analysis here only deepens rather than resolves the paradox of stasis.

Long-term temporal trends in gastrointestinal parasite infection in wild Soay sheep

Monitoring the prevalence and abundance of parasites over time is important for addressing their potential impact on host life histories, immunological profiles and their influence as a selective force. Only long-term ecological studies have the potential to shed light on both the temporal trends in infection prevalence and abundance and the drivers of such trends, because of their ability to dissect drivers that may be confounded over shorter time scales. Despite this, only a relatively small number of such studies exist. Here, we analysed changes in the prevalence and abundance of gastrointestinal parasites in the wild Soay sheep population of St. Kilda across 31 years. The host population density (PD) has increased across the study, and PD is known to increase parasite transmission, but we found that PD and year explained temporal variation in parasite prevalence and abundance independently. Prevalence of both strongyle nematodes and coccidian microparasites increased during the study, and this effect varied between lambs, yearlings and adults. Meanwhile, abundance of strongyles was more strongly linked to host PD than to temporal (yearly) dynamics, while abundance of coccidia showed a strong temporal trend without any influence of PD. Strikingly, coccidian abundance increased 3-fold across the course of the study in lambs, while increases in yearlings and adults were negligible. Our decades-long, intensive, individual-based study will enable the role of environmental change and selection pressures in driving these dynamics to be determined, potentially providing unparalleled insight into the drivers of temporal variation in parasite dynamics in the wild.

Parent-offspring inference in inbred populations

Genealogical relationships are fundamental components of genetic studies. However, it is often challenging to infer correct and complete pedigrees even when genome-wide information is available. For example, inbreeding can obscure genetic differences between individuals, making it difficult to even distinguish first-degree relatives such as parent-offspring from full siblings. Similarly, genotyping errors can interfere with the detection of genetic similarity between parents and their offspring. Inbreeding is common in natural, domesticated, and experimental populations and genotyping of these populations often has more errors than in human data sets, so efficient methods for building pedigrees under these conditions are necessary. Here, we present a new method for parent-offspring inference in inbred pedigrees called specific parent-offspring relationship estimation (spore). spore is vastly superior to existing pedigree-inference methods at detecting parent-offspring relationships, in particular when inbreeding is high or in the presence of genotyping errors, or both. spore therefore fills an important void in the arsenal of pedigree inference tools.

Vertebrate Phenological Plasticity: from Molecular Mechanisms to Ecological and Evolutionary Implications

Seasonal variation in the availability of essential resources is one of the most important drivers of natural selection on the phasing and duration of annually recurring life-cycle events. Shifts in seasonal timing are among the most commonly reported responses to climate change and the capacity of organisms to adjust their timing, either through phenotypic plasticity or evolution, is a critical component of resilience. Despite growing interest in documenting and forecasting the impacts of climate change on phenology, our ability to predict how individuals, populations, and species might alter their seasonal timing in response to their changing environments is constrained by limited knowledge regarding the cues animals use to adjust timing, the endogenous genetic and molecular mechanisms that transduce cues into neural and endocrine signals, and the inherent capacity of animals to alter their timing and phasing within annual cycles. Further, the fitness consequences of phenological responses are often due to biotic interactions within and across trophic levels, rather than being simple outcomes of responses to changes in the abiotic environment. Here, we review the current state of knowledge regarding the mechanisms that control seasonal timing in vertebrates, as well as the ecological and evolutionary consequences of individual, population, and species-level variation in phenological responsiveness. Understanding the causes and consequences of climate-driven phenological shifts requires combining ecological, evolutionary, and mechanistic approaches at individual, populational, and community scales. Thus, to make progress in forecasting phenological responses and demographic consequences, we need to further develop interdisciplinary networks focused on climate change science.

Genetic variance in fitness indicates rapid contemporary adaptive evolution in wild animals

The rate of adaptive evolution, the contribution of selection to genetic changes that increase mean fitness, is determined by the additive genetic variance in individual relative fitness. To date, there are few robust estimates of this parameter for natural populations, and it is therefore unclear whether adaptive evolution can play a meaningful role in short-term population dynamics. We developed and applied quantitative genetic methods to long-term datasets from 19 wild bird and mammal populations and found that, while estimates vary between populations, additive genetic variance in relative fitness is often substantial and, on average, twice that of previous estimates. We show that these rates of contemporary adaptive evolution can affect population dynamics and hence that natural selection has the potential to partly mitigate effects of current environmental change.

Microbial ecology and evolution is key to pandemics: using the coronavirus model to mitigate future public health challenges

Pandemics are global challenges that lead to total disruption of human activities. From the inception of human existence, all pandemics have resulted in loss of human lives. The coronavirus disease caused by SAR-CoV-2 began in China and is now at the global scale with an increase in mortality and morbidity. Numerous anthropogenic activities have been implicated in the emergence and severity of pandemics, including COVID-19. These activities cause changes in microbial ecology, leading to evolution due to mutation and recombination. This review hypothesized that an understanding of these anthropogenic activities would explain the dynamics of pandemics. The recent coronavirus model was used to study issues leading to microbial evolution, towards preventing future pandemics. Our review highlighted anthropogenic activities, including deforestation, mining activities, waste treatment, burning of fossil fuel, as well as international travels as drivers of microbial evolution leading to pandemics. Furthermore, human-animal interaction has also been implicated in pandemic incidents. Our study recommends substantial control of such anthropogenic activities as having been highlighted as ways to reduce the frequency of mutation, reduce pathogenic reservoirs, and the emergence of infectious diseases.

The genome sequence of the red deer, Cervus elaphus Linnaeus 1758

We present a genome assembly from an individual female Cervus elaphus (the red deer; Chordata; Mammalia; Artiodactyla; Cervidae). The genome sequence is 2,887 megabases in span. The majority of the assembly is scaffolded into 34 chromosomal pseudomolecules, with the X sex chromosome assembled.

Sociality predicts individual variation in the immunity of free-ranging rhesus macaques

Social integration and social status can substantially affect an individual’s health and survival. One route through which this occurs is by altering immune function, which can be highly sensitive to changes in the social environment. However, we currently have limited understanding of how sociality influences markers of immunity in naturalistic populations where social dynamics can be fully realized. To address this gap, we asked if social integration and social status in free-ranging rhesus macaques (Macaca mulatta) predict anatomical and physiological markers of immunity. We used data on agonistic interactions to determine social status, and social network analysis of grooming interactions to generate measures of individual variation in social integration. As measures of immunity, we included the size of two of the major organs involved in the immune response, the spleen and liver, and counts of three types of blood cells (red blood cells, platelets, and white blood cells). Controlling for body mass and age, we found that neither social status nor social integration predicted the size of anatomical markers of immunity. However, individuals that were more socially connected, i.e., with more grooming partners, had lower numbers of white blood cells than their socially isolated counterparts, indicating lower levels of inflammation with increasing levels of integration. These results build upon and extend our knowledge of the relationship between sociality and the immune system in humans and captive animals to free-ranging primates, demonstrating generalizability of the beneficial role of social integration on health.

Phenotypic plasticity drives phenological changes in a Mediterranean blue tit population

Earlier phenology induced by climate change, such as the passerines' breeding time, is observed in many natural populations. Understanding the nature of such changes is key to predict the responses of wild populations to climate change. Genetic changes have been rarely investigated for laying date, though it has been shown to be heritable and under directional selection, suggesting that the trait could evolve. In a Corsican blue tit population, the birds' laying date has significantly advanced over 40 years, and we here determine whether this response is of plastic or evolutionary origin, by comparing the predictions of the breeder's and the Robertson-Price (STS) equations, to the observed genetic changes. We compare the results obtained for two fitness proxies (fledgling and recruitment success), using models accounting for their zero inflation. Because the trait appears heritable and under directional selection, the breeder's equation predicts that genetic changes could drive a significant part of the phenological change observed. We, however, found that fitness proxies and laying date are not genetically correlated. The STS, therefore, predicts no evolution of the breeding time, predicting correctly the absence of trend in breeding values. Our results also emphasize that when investigating selection on a plastic trait under fluctuating selection, part of the fitness-trait phenotypic covariance can be due to within individual covariance. In the case of repeated measurements, splitting within and between individual covariance can shift our perspective on the actual intensity of selection over multiple selection episodes, shedding light on the potential for the trait to evolve.

Low Heritability but Significant Early Environmental Effects on Resting Metabolic Rate in a Wild Passerine

AbstractPredicting the impact of climate change on biodiversity requires understanding the adaptation potential of wild organisms. Evolutionary responses depend on the additive genetic variation associated with the phenotypic traits targeted by selection. We combine 5 years of cross-fostering experiments, measurements of resting metabolic rate (RMR) on nearly 200 wild collared flycatcher (Ficedula albicollis) nestlings, and animal models using a 17-year pedigree to evaluate the potential for an evolutionary response to changing environmental conditions. Contrary to other avian studies, we find no significant heritability of whole-organism, mass-independent, or mass-specific RMR, but we report a strong effect of nest environment instead. We therefore conclude that variation in nestling RMR is explained by variation in the early-life environment provided by the parents. We discuss possible underlying specific parental effects and the importance of taking different mechanisms into account to understand how animals phenotypically adapt (or fail to adapt) to climate change.

Connecting the data landscape of long-term ecological studies: The SPI-Birds data hub

The integration and synthesis of the data in different areas of science is drastically slowed and hindered by a lack of standards and networking programmes. Long-term studies of individually marked animals are not an exception. These studies are especially important as instrumental for understanding evolutionary and ecological processes in the wild. Furthermore, their number and global distribution provides a unique opportunity to assess the generality of patterns and to address broad-scale global issues (e.g. climate change). To solve data integration issues and enable a new scale of ecological and evolutionary research based on long-term studies of birds, we have created the SPI-Birds Network and Database (www.spibirds.org)-a large-scale initiative that connects data from, and researchers working on, studies of wild populations of individually recognizable (usually ringed) birds. Within year and a half since the establishment, SPI-Birds has recruited over 120 members, and currently hosts data on almost 1.5 million individual birds collected in 80 populations over 2,000 cumulative years, and counting. SPI-Birds acts as a data hub and a catalogue of studied populations. It prevents data loss, secures easy data finding, use and integration and thus facilitates collaboration and synthesis. We provide community-derived data and meta-data standards and improve data integrity guided by the principles of Findable, Accessible, Interoperable and Reusable (FAIR), and aligned with the existing metadata languages (e.g. ecological meta-data language). The encouraging community involvement stems from SPI-Bird's decentralized approach: research groups retain full control over data use and their way of data management, while SPI-Birds creates tailored pipelines to convert each unique data format into a standard format. We outline the lessons learned, so that other communities (e.g. those working on other taxa) can adapt our successful model. Creating community-specific hubs (such as ours, COMADRE for animal demography, etc.) will aid much-needed large-scale ecological data integration.

Tracking snowmelt to jump the green wave: phenological drivers of migration in a northern ungulate

In northern climates, spring is a time of rapid environmental change: for migrating terrestrial animals, melting snow facilitates foraging and travel, and newly emergent vegetation provides a valuable nutritional resource. These changes result in selection on the timing of important life-history events such as migration and parturition occurring when high-quality resources are most abundant. We examined the timing of female caribou (Rangifer tarandus, n = 94) migration and parturition in five herds across 7 yr in Newfoundland, Canada, as a function of two measures of environmental change-snowmelt and vegetation green-up. We generated resource selection functions to test whether caribou selected for areas associated with snowmelt and green-up during migration and following calving. We found that caribou migrated approximately 1 wk prior to snowmelt, with the flush of emergent vegetation occurring during the weeks following parturition. The results indicate that caribou "jump" the green wave of emergent forage and do so by tracking the receding edge of melting snow, likely reducing movement and foraging costs related to snow cover. Our research further broadens the ecological scope of resource tracking in animals. We demonstrate that resource tracking extends beyond resources directly related to foraging to those related to movement. We also show that snowmelt provides an environmental cue that may provide a buffer against changing environmental conditions.

Inter- and intrasex habitat partitioning in the highly dimorphic southern elephant seal

Partitioning resources is a key mechanism for avoiding intraspecific competition and maximizing individual energy gain. However, in sexually dimorphic species it is difficult to discern if partitioning is due to competition or the different resource needs of morphologically distinct individuals. In the highly dimorphic southern elephant seal, there are intersexual differences in habitat use; at Iles Kerguelen, males predominantly use shelf waters, while females use deeper oceanic waters. There are equally marked intrasexual differences, with some males using the nearby Kerguelen Plateau, and others using the much more distant Antarctic continental shelf (~2,000 km away). We used this combination of inter and intrasexual behavior to test two hypotheses regarding habitat partitioning in highly dimorphic species. (a) that intersexual differences in habitat use will not appear until the seals diverge in body size and (b) that some habitats have higher rates of energy return than others. In particular, that the Antarctic shelf would provide higher energy returns than the Kerguelen Shelf, to offset the greater cost of travel. We quantified the habitat use of 187 southern elephant seals (102 adult females and 85 subadult males). The seals in the two groups were the same size (~2.4 m) removing the confounding effect of body size. We found that the intersexual differences in habitat use existed before the divergence in body size. Also, we found that the amount of energy gained was the same in all of the major habitats. This suggests that the use of shelf habitats by males is innate, and a trade-off between the need to access the large benthic prey available on shelf waters, against the higher risk of predation there. Intrasexual differences in habitat use are another trade-off; although there are fewer predators on the Antarctic shelf, it is subject to considerable interannual fluctuations in sea-ice extent. In contrast, the Kerguelen Plateau presents more consistent foraging opportunities, but contains higher levels of predation. Habitat partitioning in this highly dimorphic species is therefore the result of complex interplay of life history strategies, environmental conditions and predation pressure.

Predicting evolutionary change at the DNA level in a natural Mimulus population

Evolution by natural selection occurs when the frequencies of genetic variants change because individuals differ in Darwinian fitness components such as survival or reproductive success. Differential fitness has been demonstrated in field studies of many organisms, but it remains unclear how well we can quantitatively predict allele frequency changes from fitness measurements. Here, we characterize natural selection on millions of Single Nucleotide Polymorphisms (SNPs) across the genome of the annual plant Mimulus guttatus. We use fitness estimates to calibrate population genetic models that effectively predict allele frequency changes into the next generation. Hundreds of SNPs experienced "male selection" in 2013 with one allele at each SNP elevated in frequency among successful male gametes relative to the entire population of adults. In the following generation, allele frequencies at these SNPs consistently shifted in the predicted direction. A second year of study revealed that SNPs had effects on both viability and reproductive success with pervasive trade-offs between fitness components. SNPs favored by male selection were, on average, detrimental to survival. These trade-offs (antagonistic pleiotropy and temporal fluctuations in fitness) may be essential to the long-term maintenance of alleles. Despite the challenges of measuring selection in the wild, the strong correlation between predicted and observed allele frequency changes suggests that population genetic models have a much greater role to play in forward-time prediction of evolutionary change.

Lack of phenological shift leads to increased camouflage mismatch in mountain hares

Understanding whether organisms will be able to adapt to human-induced stressors currently endangering their existence is an urgent priority. Globally, multiple species moult from a dark summer to white winter coat to maintain camouflage against snowy landscapes. Decreasing snow cover duration owing to climate change is increasing mismatch in seasonal camouflage. To directly test for adaptive responses to recent changes in snow cover, we repeated historical (1950s) field studies of moult phenology in mountain hares (Lepus timidus) in Scotland. We found little evidence that population moult phenology has shifted to align seasonal coat colour with shorter snow seasons, or that phenotypic plasticity prevented increases in camouflage mismatch. The lack of responses resulted in 35 additional days of mismatch between 1950 and 2016. We emphasize the potential role of weak directional selection pressure and low genetic variability in shaping the scope for adaptive responses to anthropogenic stressors.

Ecological insights from three decades of animal movement tracking across a changing Arctic

The Arctic is entering a new ecological state, with alarming consequences for humanity. Animal-borne sensors offer a window into these changes. Although substantial animal tracking data from the Arctic and subarctic exist, most are difficult to discover and access. Here, we present the new Arctic Animal Movement Archive (AAMA), a growing collection of more than 200 standardized terrestrial and marine animal tracking studies from 1991 to the present. The AAMA supports public data discovery, preserves fundamental baseline data for the future, and facilitates efficient, collaborative data analysis. With AAMA-based case studies, we document climatic influences on the migration phenology of eagles, geographic differences in the adaptive response of caribou reproductive phenology to climate change, and species-specific changes in terrestrial mammal movement rates in response to increasing temperature.

Decoupling the effects of food and density on life-history plasticity of wild animals using field experiments: Insights from the steward who sits in the shadow of its tail, the North American red squirrel

Long-term studies of wild animals provide the opportunity to investigate how phenotypic plasticity is used to cope with environmental fluctuations and how the relationships between phenotypes and fitness can be dependent upon the ecological context. Many previous studies have only investigated life-history plasticity in response to changes in temperature, yet wild animals often experience multiple environmental fluctuations simultaneously. This requires field experiments to decouple which ecological factor induces plasticity in fitness-relevant traits to better understand their population-level responses to those environmental fluctuations. For the past 32 years, we have conducted a long-term integrative study of individually marked North American red squirrels Tamiasciurus hudsonicus Erxleben in the Yukon, Canada. We have used multi-year field experiments to examine the physiological and life-history responses of individual red squirrels to fluctuations in food abundance and conspecific density. Our long-term observational study and field experiments show that squirrels can anticipate increases in food availability and density, thereby decoupling the usual pattern where animals respond to, rather than anticipate, an ecological change. As in many other study systems, ecological factors that can induce plasticity (such as food and density) covary. However, our field experiments that manipulate food availability and social cues of density (frequency of territorial vocalizations) indicate that increases in social (acoustic) cues of density in the absence of additional food can induce similar life-history plasticity, as does experimental food supplementation. Changes in the levels of metabolic hormones (glucocorticoids) in response to variation in food and density are one mechanism that seems to induce this adaptive life-history plasticity. Although we have not yet investigated the energetic response of squirrels to elevated density or its association with life-history plasticity, energetics research in red squirrels has overturned several standard pillars of knowledge in physiological ecology. We show how a tractable model species combined with integrative studies can reveal how animals cope with resource fluctuations through life-history plasticity.

The 'algebra of evolution': the Robertson-Price identity and viability selection for body mass in a wild bird population

By the Robertson–Price identity, the change in a quantitative trait owing to selection, is equal to the trait's covariance with relative fitness. In this study, we applied the identity to long-term data on superb fairy-wrens Malurus cyaneus, to estimate phenotypic and genetic change owing to juvenile viability selection. Mortality in the four-week period between fledging and independence was 40%, and heavier nestlings were more likely to survive, but why? There was additive genetic variance for both nestling mass and survival, and a positive phenotypic covariance between the traits, but no evidence of additive genetic covariance. Comparing standardized gradients, the phenotypic selection gradient was positive, β_P = 0.108 (0.036, 0.187 95% CI), whereas the genetic gradient was not different from zero, β_A = −0.025 (−0.19, 0.107 95% CI). This suggests that factors other than nestling mass were the cause of variation in survival. In particular, there were temporal correlations between mass and survival both within and between years. We suggest that use of the Price equation to describe cross-generational change in the wild may be challenging, but a more modest aim of estimating its first term, the Robertson–Price identity, to assess within-generation change can provide valuable insights into the processes shaping phenotypic diversity in natural populations.

This article is part of the theme issue ‘Fifty years of the Price equation’.