Natural selection in the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in bats created a generalist virus and highly capable human pathogen

The recency and geographical origins of the bat viruses ancestral to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2

The emergence of SARS-CoV in 2002 and SARS-CoV-2 in 2019 led to increased sampling of sarbecoviruses circulating in horseshoe bats. Employing phylogenetic inference while accounting for recombination of bat sarbecoviruses, we find that the closest-inferred bat virus ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 existed less than a decade prior to their emergence in humans. Phylogeographic analyses show bat sarbecoviruses traveled at rates approximating their horseshoe bat hosts and circulated in Asia for millennia. We find that the direct ancestors of SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 are unlikely to have reached their respective sites of emergence via dispersal in the bat reservoir alone, supporting interactions with intermediate hosts through wildlife trade playing a role in zoonotic spillover. These results can guide future sampling efforts and demonstrate that viral genomic regions extremely closely related to SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2 were circulating in horseshoe bats, confirming their importance as the reservoir species for SARS viruses.

Study of coronavirus diversity in wildlife in Northern Cambodia suggests continuous circulation of SARS-CoV-2-related viruses in bats

Since SARS-CoV-2's emergence, studies in Southeast Asia, including Cambodia, have identified related coronaviruses (CoVs) in rhinolophid bats. This pilot study investigates the prevalence and diversity of CoVs in wildlife from two Cambodian provinces known for wildlife trade and environmental changes, factors favoring zoonotic spillover risk. Samples were collected from 2020 to 2022 using active (capture and swabbing of bats and rodents) and non-invasive (collection of feces from bat caves and wildlife habitats) methods. RNA was screened for CoVs using conventional pan-CoVs and real-time Sarbecovirus-specific PCR systems. Positive samples were sequenced and phylogenetic analysis was performed on the partial RdRp gene. A total of 2608 samples were collected: 867 rectal swabs from bats, 159 from rodents, 41 from other wild animals, and 1541 fecal samples. The overall prevalence of CoVs was 2.0%, with a 3.3% positive rate in bats, 2.5% in rodents, and no CoVs detected in other wildlife species. Alpha-CoVs were exclusive to bats, while Beta-CoVs were found in both bats and rodents. Seven SARS-CoV-2-related viruses were identified in Rhinolophus shameli bats sampled in August 2020, March 2021, and December 2021. Our results highlight diverse CoVs in Cambodian bats and rodents and emphasize bats as significant reservoirs. They also suggest continuous circulation of bat SARS-CoV-2-related viruses may occur in a region where ecological and human factors could favor virus emergence. Continuous surveillance and integrated approaches are crucial to managing and mitigating emerging zoonotic diseases.

SARS-CoV-2: The Interplay Between Evolution and Host Immunity

The persistence of SARS-CoV-2 infections at a global level reflects the repeated emergence of variant strains encoding unique constellations of mutations. These variants have been generated principally because of a dynamic host immune landscape, the countermeasures deployed to combat disease, and selection for enhanced infection of the upper airway and respiratory transmission. The resulting viral diversity creates a challenge for vaccination efforts to maintain efficacy, especially regarding humoral aspects of protection. Here, we review our understanding of how SARS-CoV-2 has evolved during the pandemic, the immune mechanisms that confer protection, and the impact viral evolution has had on transmissibility and adaptive immunity elicited by natural infection and/or vaccination. Evidence suggests that SARS-CoV-2 evolution initially selected variants with increased transmissibility but currently is driven by immune escape. The virus likely will continue to drift to maintain fitness until countermeasures capable of disrupting transmission cycles become widely available.

Genome data artifacts and functional studies of deletion repair in the BA.1 SARS-CoV-2 spike protein

Mutations within the N-terminal domain (NTD) of the spike (S) protein are critical for the emergence of successful severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) viral lineages. The NTD has been repeatedly impacted by deletions, often exhibiting complex and dynamic patterns, such as the recurrent emergence and disappearance of deletions in dominant variants. This study investigates the influence of repair of NTD lineage-defining deletions found in the BA.1 lineage (Omicron variant) on viral success. We performed comparative genomic analyses of >10 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes from the Global Initiative on Sharing All Influenza Data (GISAID) EpiCov database to evaluate the detection of viruses lacking S:ΔH69/V70, S:ΔV143/Y145, or both. These findings were contrasted against a screening of publicly available raw sequencing data, revealing substantial discrepancies between data repositories, suggesting that spurious deletion repair observations in GISAID may result from systematic artifacts. Specifically, deletion repair events were approximately an order of magnitude less frequent in the read-run survey. Our results suggest that deletion repair events are rare, isolated events with limited direct influence on SARS-CoV-2 evolution or transmission. Nevertheless, such events could facilitate the emergence of fitness-enhancing mutations. To explore potential drivers of NTD deletion repair patterns, we characterized the viral phenotype of such markers in a surrogate in vitro system. Repair of the S:ΔH69/V70 deletion reduced viral infectivity, while simultaneous repair with S:ΔV143/Y145 led to lower fusogenicity. In contrast, individual S:ΔV143/Y145 repair enhanced both fusogenicity and susceptibility to neutralization by sera from vaccinated individuals. This work underscores the complex genotype-phenotype landscape of the spike NTD in SARS-CoV-2, which impacts viral biology, transmission efficiency, and immune escape potential, offering insights with direct relevance to public health, viral surveillance, and the adaptive mechanisms driving emerging variants.

Dynamics of natural selection preceding human viral epidemics and pandemics

Using a phylogenetic framework to characterize natural selection, we investigate the hypothesis that zoonotic viruses require adaptation prior to zoonosis to sustain human-to-human transmission. Examining the zoonotic emergence of Ebola virus, Marburg virus, influenza A virus, SARS-CoV, and SARS-CoV-2, we find no evidence of a change in the intensity of natural selection immediately prior to a host switch, compared with typical selection within reservoir hosts. We conclude that extensive pre-zoonotic adaptation is not necessary for human-to-human transmission of zoonotic viruses. In contrast, the reemergence of H1N1 influenza A virus in 1977 showed a change in selection, consistent with the hypothesis of passage in a laboratory setting prior to its reintroduction into the human population, purportedly during a vaccine trial. Holistic phylogenetic analysis of selection regimes can be used to detect evolutionary signals of host switching or laboratory passage, providing insight into the circumstances of past and future viral emergence.

Positive selection, genetic recombination, and intra-host evolution in novel equine coronavirus genomes and other members of the Embecovirus subgenus

There are several examples of coronaviruses in the Betacoronavirus subgenus Embecovirus that have jumped from an animal to the human host. Studying how evolutionary factors shape coronaviruses in non-human hosts may provide insight into the coronavirus host-switching potential. Equids, such as horses and donkeys, are susceptible to equine coronaviruses (ECoVs). With increased testing prevalence, several ECoV genome sequences have become available for molecular evolutionary analyses, especially those from the United States of America (USA). To date, no analyses have been performed to characterize evolution within coding regions of the ECoV genome. Here, we obtain and describe four new ECoV genome sequences from infected equines from across the USA presenting clinical symptoms of ECoV, and infer ECoV-specific and Embecovirus-wide patterns of molecular evolution. Within two of the four data sets analyzed, we find evidence of intra-host evolution within the nucleocapsid (N) gene, suggestive of quasispecies development. We also identify 12 putative genetic recombination events within the ECoV genome, 11 of which fall in ORF1ab. Finally, we infer and compare sites subject to positive selection on the ancestral branch of each major Embecovirus member clade. Specifically, for the two currently identified human coronavirus (HCoV) embecoviruses that have spilled from animals to humans (HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1), we find that there are 42 and 2 such sites, respectively, perhaps reflective of the more complex ancestral evolutionary history of HCoV-OC43, which involves several different animal hosts.IMPORTANCEThe Betacoronavirus subgenus Embecovirus contains coronaviruses that not only pose a health threat to animals and humans, but also have jumped from animal to human host. Equids, such as horses and donkeys are susceptible to equine coronavirus (ECoV) infections. No studies have systematically examined evolutionary patterns within ECoV genomes. Our study addresses this gap and provides insight into intra-host ECoV evolution from infected horses. Further, we identify and report natural selection pattern differences between two embecoviruses that have jumped from animals to humans [human coronavirus OC43 and HKU1 (HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1, respectively)], and hypothesize that the differences observed may be due to the different animal host(s) that each virus circulated in prior to its jump into humans. Finally, we contribute four novel, high-quality ECoV genomes to the scientific community.

How Trustworthy Are the Genomic Sequences of SARS-CoV-2 in GenBank?

Well-annotated gene and genomic sequences serve as a foundation for making inferences in molecular biology and evolution and can directly impact public health. The first SARS-CoV-2 genome was submitted to the GenBank database hosted by the U.S. National Center for Biotechnology Information and used to develop the two successful vaccines. Conserved protein domains are often chosen as targets for developing antiviral medicines or vaccines. Mutation and substitution patterns provide crucial information not only on functional motifs and genome/protein interactions but also for characterizing phylogenetic relationships among viral strains. These patterns, together with the collection time of viral samples, serve as the basis for addressing the question of when and where the host-switching event occurred. Unfortunately, viral genomic sequences submitted to GenBank undergo little quality control, and critical information in the annotation is frequently changed without being recorded. Researchers often have no choice but to hold blind faith in the authenticity of the sequences. There have been reports of incorrect genome annotation but no report that casts doubt on the genomic sequences themselves because it seems theoretically impossible to identify genomic sequences that may not be authentic. This paper takes an innovative approach to show that some SARS-CoV-2 genomes submitted to GenBank cannot possibly be authentic. Specifically, some SARS-CoV-2 genomic sequences deposited in GenBank with collection times in 2023 and 2024, isolated from saliva, nasopharyngeal, sewage, and stool, are identical to the reference genome of SARS-CoV-2 (NC_045512). The probability of such occurrence is effectively 0. I also compile SARS-CoV-2 genomes with changed sample collection times. One may be led astray in bioinformatic analysis without being aware of errors in sequences and sequence annotation.

Interaction of chikungunya virus glycoproteins with macrophage factors controls virion production

Despite their role as innate sentinels, macrophages can serve as cellular reservoirs of chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a highly-pathogenic arthropod-borne alphavirus that has caused large outbreaks among human populations. Here, with the use of viral chimeras and evolutionary selection analysis, we define CHIKV glycoproteins E1 and E2 as critical for virion production in THP-1 derived human macrophages. Through proteomic analysis and functional validation, we further identify signal peptidase complex subunit 3 (SPCS3) and eukaryotic translation initiation factor 3 subunit K (eIF3k) as E1-binding host proteins with anti-CHIKV activities. We find that E1 residue V220, which has undergone positive selection, is indispensable for CHIKV production in macrophages, as its mutation attenuates E1 interaction with the host restriction factors SPCS3 and eIF3k. Finally, we show that the antiviral activity of eIF3k is translation-independent, and that CHIKV infection promotes eIF3k translocation from the nucleus to the cytoplasm, where it associates with SPCS3. These functions of CHIKV glycoproteins late in the viral life cycle provide a new example of an intracellular evolutionary arms race with host restriction factors, as well as potential targets for therapeutic intervention.

Comprehensive detection and dissection of interlineage recombination events in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic

The global prevalence of the XBB lineage presents a formidable challenge posed by the recombinant SARS-CoV-2 virus. The understanding of SARS-CoV-2's recombination preference assumes utmost significance in predicting future recombinant variants and adequately preparing for subsequent pandemics. Thus, an urgent need arises to establish a comprehensive landscape concerning SARS-CoV-2 recombinants worldwide and elucidate their evolutionary mechanisms. However, the initial step, involving the detection of potential recombinants from a vast pool of over 10 million sequences, presents a significant obstacle. In this study, we present CovRecomb, a lightweight methodology specifically designed to effectively identify and dissect interlineage SARS-CoV-2 recombinants. Leveraging CovRecomb, we successfully detected 135,567 putative recombinants across the entirety of 14.5 million accessed SARS-CoV-2 genomes. These putative recombinants could be classified into 1451 distinct recombination events, of which 206 demonstrated transmission spanning multiple countries, continents, or globally. Hotspot regions were identified in six specific areas, with prominence observed in the latter halves of the N-terminal domain and receptor-binding domain within the spike (S) gene. Epidemiological investigations revealed extensive recombination events occurring among different SARS-CoV-2 (sub)lineages, independent of lineage prevalence frequencies.

The Emergence and Evolution of SARS-CoV-2

The origin of SARS-CoV-2 has evoked heated debate and strong accusations, yet seemingly little resolution. I review the scientific evidence on the origin of SARS-CoV-2 and its subsequent spread through the human population. The available data clearly point to a natural zoonotic emergence within, or closely linked to, the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market in Wuhan. There is no direct evidence linking the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 to laboratory work conducted at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. The subsequent global spread of SARS-CoV-2 was characterized by a gradual adaptation to humans, with dual increases in transmissibility and virulence until the emergence of the Omicron variant. Of note has been the frequent transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from humans to other animals, marking it as a strongly host generalist virus. Unless lessons from the origin of SARS-CoV-2 are learned, it is inevitable that more zoonotic events leading to more epidemics and pandemics will plague human populations.

Enhanced Diversifying Selection on Polymerase Genes in H5N1 Clade 2.3.4.4b: A Key Driver of Altered Species Tropism and Host Range Expansion

Highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses have shown unprecedented host range and pathogenicity, including infections in cattle, previously not susceptible to H5N1. We investigated whether selection pressures on clade 2.3.4.4b viral genes could shed light on their unique epidemiological features. Our analysis revealed that while the gene products of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 primarily undergo purifying selection, there are notable instances of episodic diversifying selection. Specifically, the polymerase genes PB2, PB1, and PA exhibit significantly greater selection pressures in clade 2.3.4.4b than all earlier H5N1 virus clades. Polymerases play critical roles in influenza virus adaptation, including viral fitness, interspecies transmission, and virulence. Our findings provide evidence that significant selection pressures have shaped the evolution of the H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b viruses, facilitating their expanded host tropism and the potential for further adaptation to mammalian hosts. We discuss how exogenous factors, such as altered bird migration patterns and increased host susceptibility, may have contributed to the expanded host range. As H5N1 viruses continue to infect new hosts, there is a greater risk of emergent novel variants with increased pathogenicity in humans and animals. Thus, comprehensive One Health surveillance is critical to monitor transmission among avian and mammalian hosts.

Evolution at Spike protein position 519 in SARS-CoV-2 facilitated adaptation to humans

As the COVID-19 pandemic enters its fourth year, the pursuit of identifying a progenitor virus to SARS-CoV-2 and understanding the mechanism of its emergence persists, albeit against the backdrop of intensified efforts to monitor the ongoing evolution of the virus and the influx of new mutations. Surprisingly, few residues hypothesized to be essential for SARS-CoV-2 emergence and adaptation to humans have been validated experimentally, despite the importance that these mutations could contribute to the development of effective antivirals. To remedy this, we searched for genomic regions in the SARS-CoV-2 genome that show evidence of past selection around residues unique to SARS-CoV-2 compared with closely related coronaviruses. In doing so, we identified a residue at position 519 in Spike within the receptor binding domain that holds a static histidine in human-derived SARS-CoV-2 sequences but an asparagine in SARS-related coronaviruses from bats and pangolins. In experimental validation, the SARS-CoV-2 Spike protein mutant carrying the putatively ancestral H519N substitution showed reduced replication in human lung cells, suggesting that the histidine residue contributes to viral fitness in the human host. Structural analyses revealed a potential role of Spike residue 519 in mediating conformational transitions necessary for Spike prior to binding with ACE2. Pseudotyped viruses bearing the putatively ancestral N519 also demonstrated significantly reduced infectivity in cells expressing the human ACE2 receptor compared to H519. ELISA data corroborated that H519 enhances Spike binding affinity to the human ACE2 receptor compared to the putatively ancestral N519. Collectively, these findings suggest that the evolutionary transition at position 519 of the Spike protein played a critical role in SARS-CoV-2 emergence and adaptation to the human host. Additionally, this residue presents as a potential drug target for designing small molecule inhibitors tailored to this site.

Mapping the Evolutionary Space of SARS-CoV-2 Variants to Anticipate Emergence of Subvariants Resistant to COVID-19 Therapeutics

New sublineages of SARS-CoV-2 variants-of-concern (VOCs) continuously emerge with mutations in the spike glycoprotein. In most cases, the sublineage-defining mutations vary between the VOCs. It is unclear whether these differences reflect lineage-specific likelihoods for mutations at each spike position or the stochastic nature of their appearance. Here we show that SARS-CoV-2 lineages have distinct evolutionary spaces (a probabilistic definition of the sequence states that can be occupied by expanding virus subpopulations). This space can be accurately inferred from the patterns of amino acid variability at the whole-protein level. Robust networks of co-variable sites identify the highest-likelihood mutations in new VOC sublineages and predict remarkably well the emergence of subvariants with resistance mutations to COVID-19 therapeutics. Our studies reveal the contribution of low frequency variant patterns at heterologous sites across the protein to accurate prediction of the changes at each position of interest.

Finally neutralizing the threat? A novel SARS-CoV-2 vaccine platform that elicits enhanced neutralizing antibody responses

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) outbreak took the world by storm due to its rapid global spread and unpredictable disease outcomes. The extraordinary ascension of SARS-CoV-2 to pandemic status motivated a world-wide effort to rapidly develop vaccines that could effectively suppress virus spread and mitigate severe disease. These efforts culminated in the development and deployment of several highly effective vaccines that were heralded as the beginning-of-the-end of the pandemic. However, these successes were short lived due to the unexpected and continuous emergence of more transmissible and immune-evasive SARS-CoV-2 variants. Thus, attention has shifted toward developing novel vaccine platforms that elicit more robust and sustained neutralizing antibody responses. Recent findings by Muñoz-Alía and colleagues address this by combining a live recombinant measles vaccine platform with novel biochemical approaches to generate vaccine candidates that bolster the potency of neutralizing antibody responses against diverse SARS-CoV-2 spike proteins (M. Á. Muñoz-Alía, R. A. Nace, B. Balakrishnan, L. Zhang, et al., mBio 9:e02928-23, 2024, https://doi.org/10.1128/mbio.02928-23).

Evolution of the SARS-CoV-2 Omicron Variants: Genetic Impact on Viral Fitness

Over the last three years, the pandemic of COVID-19 has had a significant impact on people's lives and the global economy. The incessant emergence of variant strains has compounded the challenges associated with the management of COVID-19. As the predominant variant from late 2021 to the present, Omicron and its sublineages, through continuous evolution, have demonstrated iterative viral fitness. The comprehensive elucidation of the biological implications that catalyzed this evolution remains incomplete. In accordance with extant research evidence, we provide a comprehensive review of subvariants of Omicron, delineating alterations in immune evasion, cellular infectivity, and the cross-species transmission potential. This review seeks to clarify the underpinnings of biology within the evolution of SARS-CoV-2, thereby providing a foundation for strategic considerations in the post-pandemic era of COVID-19.

The most exposed regions of SARS-CoV-2 structural proteins are subject to strong positive selection and gene overlap may locally modify this behavior

The SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2) pandemic that emerged in 2019 has been an unprecedented event in international science, as it has been possible to sequence millions of genomes, tracking their evolution very closely. This has enabled various types of secondary analyses of these genomes, including the measurement of their sequence selection pressure. In this work, we have been able to measure the selective pressure of all the described SARS-CoV-2 genes, even analyzed by sequence regions, and we show how this type of analysis allows us to separate the genes between those subject to positive selection (usually those that code for surface proteins or those exposed to the host immune system) and those subject to negative selection because they require greater conservation of their structure and function. We have also seen that when another gene with an overlapping reading frame appears within a gene sequence, the overlapping sequence between the two genes evolves under a stronger purifying selection than the average of the non-overlapping regions of the main gene. We propose this type of analysis as a useful tool for locating and analyzing all the genes of a viral genome when an adequate number of sequences are available.IMPORTANCEWe have analyzed the selection pressure of all severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 genes by means of the nonsynonymous (Ka) to synonymous (Ks) substitution rate. We found that protein-coding genes are exposed to strong positive selection, especially in the regions of interaction with other molecules (host receptor and genome of the virus itself). However, overlapping coding regions are more protected and show negative selection. This suggests that this measure could be used to study viral gene function as well as overlapping genes.

Dinucleotide biases in RNA viruses that infect vertebrates or invertebrates

IMPORTANCE

Akin to a molecular signature, dinucleotide composition can be exploited by the zinc-finger antiviral protein (ZAP) to restrict CpG-rich (and UpA-rich) RNA viruses. ZAP evolved in tetrapods, and it is not encoded by invertebrates and fish. Because a systematic analysis is missing, we analyzed the genomes of RNA viruses that infect vertebrates or invertebrates. We show that vertebrate single-stranded (ss) RNA(+) viruses and, to a lesser extent, double-stranded RNA viruses tend to have stronger CpG bias than invertebrate viruses. Conversely, ssRNA(-) viruses have similar dinucleotide composition whether they infect vertebrates or invertebrates. Analysis of ssRNA(+) viruses that infect mammals, reptiles, and fish indicated that ZAP is unlikely to be a major driver of CpG depletion. We also show that, compared to other coronaviruses, the genome of SARS-CoV-2 is not homogeneously CpG-depleted. Our study provides new insights into virus evolution and strategies for recoding RNA virus genomes.

Fitness, growth and transmissibility of SARS-CoV-2 genetic variants

The massive scale of the global SARS-CoV-2 sequencing effort created new opportunities and challenges for understanding SARS-CoV-2 evolution. Rapid detection and assessment of new variants has become one of the principal objectives of genomic surveillance of SARS-CoV-2. Because of the pace and scale of sequencing, new strategies have been developed for characterizing fitness and transmissibility of emerging variants. In this Review, I discuss a wide range of approaches that have been rapidly developed in response to the public health threat posed by emerging variants, ranging from new applications of classic population genetics models to contemporary synthesis of epidemiological models and phylodynamic analysis. Many of these approaches can be adapted to other pathogens and will have increasing relevance as large-scale pathogen sequencing becomes a regular feature of many public health systems.

Optimization and Deoptimization of Codons in SARS-CoV-2 and Related Implications for Vaccine Development

The spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), has progressed into a global pandemic. To date, thousands of genetic variants have been identified among SARS-CoV-2 isolates collected from patients. Sequence analysis reveals that the codon adaptation index (CAI) values of viral sequences have decreased over time but with occasional fluctuations. Through evolution modeling, it is found that this phenomenon may result from the virus's mutation preference during transmission. Using dual-luciferase assays, it is further discovered that the deoptimization of codons in the viral sequence may weaken protein expression during virus evolution, indicating that codon usage may play an important role in virus fitness. Finally, given the importance of codon usage in protein expression and particularly for mRNA vaccines, it is designed several codon-optimized Omicron BA.2.12.1, BA.4/5, and XBB.1.5 spike mRNA vaccine candidates and experimentally validated their high levels of expression. This study highlights the importance of codon usage in virus evolution and provides guidelines for codon optimization in mRNA and DNA vaccine development.

Evolutionary Shortcuts via Multinucleotide Substitutions and Their Impact on Natural Selection Analyses

Inference and interpretation of evolutionary processes, in particular of the types and targets of natural selection affecting coding sequences, are critically influenced by the assumptions built into statistical models and tests. If certain aspects of the substitution process (even when they are not of direct interest) are presumed absent or are modeled with too crude of a simplification, estimates of key model parameters can become biased, often systematically, and lead to poor statistical performance. Previous work established that failing to accommodate multinucleotide (or multihit, MH) substitutions strongly biases dN/dS-based inference towards false-positive inferences of diversifying episodic selection, as does failing to model variation in the rate of synonymous substitution (SRV) among sites. Here, we develop an integrated analytical framework and software tools to simultaneously incorporate these sources of evolutionary complexity into selection analyses. We found that both MH and SRV are ubiquitous in empirical alignments, and incorporating them has a strong effect on whether or not positive selection is detected (1.4-fold reduction) and on the distributions of inferred evolutionary rates. With simulation studies, we show that this effect is not attributable to reduced statistical power caused by using a more complex model. After a detailed examination of 21 benchmark alignments and a new high-resolution analysis showing which parts of the alignment provide support for positive selection, we show that MH substitutions occurring along shorter branches in the tree explain a significant fraction of discrepant results in selection detection. Our results add to the growing body of literature which examines decades-old modeling assumptions (including MH) and finds them to be problematic for comparative genomic data analysis. Because multinucleotide substitutions have a significant impact on natural selection detection even at the level of an entire gene, we recommend that selection analyses of this type consider their inclusion as a matter of routine. To facilitate this procedure, we developed, implemented, and benchmarked a simple and well-performing model testing selection detection framework able to screen an alignment for positive selection with two biologically important confounding processes: site-to-site synonymous rate variation, and multinucleotide instantaneous substitutions.

Does arbovirus emergence in humans require adaptation to domestic mosquitoes?

In the last few decades, several mosquito-borne arboviruses of zoonotic origin have established large-scale epidemic transmission cycles in the human population. It is often considered that arbovirus emergence is driven by adaptive evolution, such as virus adaptation for transmission by 'domestic' mosquito vector species that live in close association with humans. Here, I argue that although arbovirus adaptation to domestic mosquito vectors has been observed for several emerging arboviruses, it was generally not directly responsible for their initial emergence. Secondary adaptation to domestic mosquitoes often amplified epidemic transmission, however, this was more likely a consequence than a cause of arbovirus emergence. Considering that emerging arboviruses are generally 'preadapted' for transmission by domestic mosquito vectors may help to enhance preparedness toward future arbovirus emergence events.

Chikungunya virus glycoproteins transform macrophages into productive viral dissemination vessels

Despite their role as innate sentinels, macrophages are cellular reservoirs for chikungunya virus (CHIKV), a highly pathogenic arthropod-borne alphavirus that has caused unprecedented epidemics worldwide. Here, we took interdisciplinary approaches to elucidate the CHIKV determinants that subvert macrophages into virion dissemination vessels. Through comparative infection using chimeric alphaviruses and evolutionary selection analyses, we discovered for the first time that CHIKV glycoproteins E2 and E1 coordinate efficient virion production in macrophages with the domains involved under positive selection. We performed proteomics on CHIKV-infected macrophages to identify cellular proteins interacting with the precursor and/or mature forms of viral glycoproteins. We uncovered two E1-binding proteins, signal peptidase complex subunit 3 (SPCS3) and eukaryotic translation initiation factor 3 (eIF3k), with novel inhibitory activities against CHIKV production. These results highlight how CHIKV E2 and E1 have been evolutionarily selected for viral dissemination likely through counteracting host restriction factors, making them attractive targets for therapeutic intervention.

Mapping the Dynamics of Contemporary PRRSV-2 Evolution and Its Emergence and Spreading Hotspots in the U.S. Using Phylogeography

The repeated emergence of new genetic variants of PRRSV-2, the virus that causes porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS), reflects its rapid evolution and the failure of previous control efforts. Understanding spatiotemporal heterogeneity in variant emergence and spread is critical for future outbreak prevention. Here, we investigate how the pace of evolution varies across time and space, identify the origins of sub-lineage emergence, and map the patterns of the inter-regional spread of PRRSV-2 Lineage 1 (L1)-the current dominant lineage in the U.S. We performed comparative phylogeographic analyses on subsets of 19,395 viral ORF5 sequences collected across the U.S. and Canada between 1991 and 2021. The discrete trait analysis of multiple spatiotemporally stratified sampled sets (n = 500 each) was used to infer the ancestral geographic region and dispersion of each sub-lineage. The robustness of the results was compared to that of other modeling methods and subsampling strategies. Generally, the spatial spread and population dynamics varied across sub-lineages, time, and space. The Upper Midwest was a main spreading hotspot for multiple sub-lineages, e.g., L1C and L1F, though one of the most recent emergence events (L1A(2)) spread outwards from the east. An understanding of historical patterns of emergence and spread can be used to strategize disease control and the containment of emerging variants.

Developing an appropriate evolutionary baseline model for the study of SARS-CoV-2 patient samples

Over the past 3 years, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has spread through human populations in several waves, resulting in a global health crisis. In response, genomic surveillance efforts have proliferated in the hopes of tracking and anticipating the evolution of this virus, resulting in millions of patient isolates now being available in public databases. Yet, while there is a tremendous focus on identifying newly emerging adaptive viral variants, this quantification is far from trivial. Specifically, multiple co-occurring and interacting evolutionary processes are constantly in operation and must be jointly considered and modeled in order to perform accurate inference. We here outline critical individual components of such an evolutionary baseline model-mutation rates, recombination rates, the distribution of fitness effects, infection dynamics, and compartmentalization-and describe the current state of knowledge pertaining to the related parameters of each in SARS-CoV-2. We close with a series of recommendations for future clinical sampling, model construction, and statistical analysis.

Radu E, Matei L, Maria Ruta S, Bleotu C. SARS-CoV-2 Variant Surveillance in Genomic Medicine Era

In the genomic medicine era, the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 was immediately followed by viral genome sequencing and world-wide sequences sharing. Almost in real-time, based on these sequences, resources were developed and applied around the world, such as molecular diagnostic tests, informed public health decisions, and vaccines. Molecular SARS-CoV-2 variant surveillance was a normal approach in this context yet, considering that the viral genome modification occurs commonly in viral replication process, the challenge is to identify the modifications that significantly affect virulence, transmissibility, reduced effectiveness of vaccines and therapeutics or failure of diagnostic tests. However, assessing the importance of the emergence of new mutations and linking them to epidemiological trend, is still a laborious process and faster phenotypic evaluation approaches, in conjunction with genomic data, are required in order to release timely and efficient control measures.

Immunosuppression as a Hub for SARS-CoV-2 Mutational Drift

The clinical course of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), is largely determined by host factors, with a wide range of outcomes. Despite an extensive vaccination campaign and high rates of infection worldwide, the pandemic persists, adapting to overcome antiviral immunity acquired through prior exposure. The source of many such major adaptations is variants of concern (VOCs), novel SARS-CoV-2 variants produced by extraordinary evolutionary leaps whose origins remain mostly unknown. In this study, we tested the influence of factors on the evolutionary course of SARS-CoV-2. Electronic health records of individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 were paired to viral whole-genome sequences to assess the effects of host clinical parameters and immunity on the intra-host evolution of SARS-CoV-2. We found slight, albeit significant, differences in SARS-CoV-2 intra-host diversity, which depended on host parameters such as vaccination status and smoking. Only one viral genome had significant alterations as a result of host parameters; it was found in an immunocompromised, chronically infected woman in her 70s. We highlight the unusual viral genome obtained from this woman, which had an accelerated mutational rate and an excess of rare mutations, including near-complete truncating of the accessory protein ORF3a. Our findings suggest that the evolutionary capacity of SARS-CoV-2 during acute infection is limited and mostly unaffected by host characteristics. Significant viral evolution is seemingly exclusive to a small subset of COVID-19 cases, which typically prolong infections in immunocompromised patients. In these rare cases, SARS-CoV-2 genomes accumulate many impactful and potentially adaptive mutations; however, the transmissibility of such viruses remains unclear.

Replication in the presence of dengue convalescent serum impacts Zika virus neutralization sensitivity and fitness

Introduction

Flaviviruses like dengue virus (DENV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) are mosquito-borne viruses that cause febrile, hemorrhagic, and neurological diseases in humans, resulting in 400 million infections annually. Due to their co-circulation in many parts of the world, flaviviruses must replicate in the presence of pre-existing adaptive immune responses targeted at serologically closely related pathogens, which can provide protection or enhance disease. However, the impact of pre-existing cross-reactive immunity as a driver of flavivirus evolution, and subsequently the implications on the emergence of immune escape variants, is poorly understood. Therefore, we investigated how replication in the presence of convalescent dengue serum drives ZIKV evolution.

Methods

We used an in vitro directed evolution system, passaging ZIKV in the presence of serum from humans previously infected with DENV (anti-DENV) or serum from DENV-naïve patients (control serum). Following five passages in the presence of serum, we performed next-generation sequencing to identify mutations that arose during passaging. We studied two non-synonymous mutations found in the anti-DENV passaged population (E-V355I and NS1-T139A) by generating individual ZIKV mutants and assessing fitness in mammalian cells and live mosquitoes, as well as their sensitivity to antibody neutralization.

Results and discussion

Both viruses had increased fitness in Vero cells with and without the addition of anti-DENV serum and in human lung epithelial and monocyte cells. In Aedes aegypti mosquitoes-using blood meals with and without anti-DENV serum-the mutant viruses had significantly reduced fitness compared to wild-type ZIKV. These results align with the trade-off hypothesis of constrained mosquito-borne virus evolution. Notably, only the NS1-T139A mutation escaped neutralization, while E-V335I demonstrated enhanced neutralization sensitivity to neutralization by anti-DENV serum, indicating that neutralization escape is not necessary for viruses passaged under cross-reactive immune pressures. Future studies are needed to assess cross-reactive immune selection in humans and relevant animal models or with different flaviviruses.

Variation in synonymous evolutionary rates in the SARS-CoV-2 genome

Introduction

Coronavirus disease 2019 is an infectious disease caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). Influential variants and mutants of this virus continue to emerge, and more effective virus-related information is urgently required for identifying and predicting new mutants. According to earlier reports, synonymous substitutions were considered phenotypically silent; thus, such mutations were frequently ignored in studies of viral mutations because they did not directly cause amino acid changes. However, recent studies have shown that synonymous substitutions are not completely silent, and their patterns and potential functional correlations should thus be delineated for better control of the pandemic.

Methods

In this study, we estimated the synonymous evolutionary rate (SER) across the SARS-CoV-2 genome and used it to infer the relationship between the viral RNA and host protein. We also assessed the patterns of characteristic mutations found in different viral lineages.

Results

We found that the SER varies across the genome and that the variation is primarily influenced by codon-related factors. Moreover, the conserved motifs identified based on the SER were found to be related to host RNA transport and regulation. Importantly, the majority of the existing fixed-characteristic mutations for five important virus lineages (Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and Omicron) were significantly enriched in partially constrained regions.

Discussion

Taken together, our results provide unique information on the evolutionary and functional dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 based on synonymous mutations and offer potentially useful information for better control of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

Rooting and Dating Large SARS-CoV-2 Trees by Modeling Evolutionary Rate as a Function of Time

Almost all published rooting and dating studies on SARS-CoV-2 assumed that (1) evolutionary rate does not change over time although different lineages can have different evolutionary rates (uncorrelated relaxed clock), and (2) a zoonotic transmission occurred in Wuhan and the culprit was immediately captured, so that only the SARS-CoV-2 genomes obtained in 2019 and the first few months of 2020 (resulting from the first wave of the global expansion from Wuhan) are sufficient for dating the common ancestor. Empirical data contradict the first assumption. The second assumption is not warranted because mounting evidence suggests the presence of early SARS-CoV-2 lineages cocirculating with the Wuhan strains. Large trees with SARS-CoV-2 genomes beyond the first few months are needed to increase the likelihood of finding SARS-CoV-2 lineages that might have originated at the same time as (or even before) those early Wuhan strains. I extended a previously published rapid rooting method to model evolutionary rate as a linear function instead of a constant. This substantially improves the dating of the common ancestor of sampled SARS-CoV-2 genomes. Based on two large trees with 83,688 and 970,777 high-quality and full-length SARS-CoV-2 genomes that contain complete sample collection dates, the common ancestor was dated to 12 June 2019 and 7 July 2019 with the two trees, respectively. The two data sets would give dramatically different or even absurd estimates if the rate was treated as a constant. The large trees were also crucial for overcoming the high rate-heterogeneity among different viral lineages. The improved method was implemented in the software TRAD.

Effects of hydrometeorological and other factors on SARS-CoV-2 reproduction number in three contiguous countries of tropical Andean South America: a spatiotemporally disaggregated time series analysis

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has caused societal disruption globally, and South America has been hit harder than other lower-income regions. This study modeled the effects of six weather variables on district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers (Rt ) in three contiguous countries of tropical Andean South America (Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru), adjusting for environmental, policy, healthcare infrastructural and other factors.

Methods

Daily time-series data on SARS-CoV-2 infections were sourced from the health authorities of the three countries at the smallest available administrative level. Rt values were calculated and merged by date and unit ID with variables from a unified COVID-19 dataset and other publicly available sources for May-December, 2020. Generalized additive models were fitted.

Findings

Relative humidity and solar radiation were inversely associated with SARS-CoV-2 Rt . Days with radiation above 1000 kJ/m2 saw a 1.3% reduction in Rt , and those with humidity above 50% recorded a 0.9% reduction in Rt . Transmission was highest in densely populated districts, and lowest in districts with poor healthcare access and on days with lowest population mobility. Wind speed, temperature, region, aggregate government policy response, and population age structure had little impact. The fully adjusted model explained 4.3% of Rt variance.

Interpretation

Dry atmospheric conditions of low humidity increase district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers, while higher levels of solar radiation decrease district-level SARS-CoV-2 reproduction numbers - effects that are comparable in magnitude to population factors like lockdown compliance. Weather monitoring could be incorporated into disease surveillance and early warning systems in conjunction with more established risk indicators and surveillance measures.

Funding

NASA's Group on Earth Observations Work Programme (16-GEO16-0047).

SARS-CoV-2 variant biology: immune escape, transmission and fitness

In late 2020, after circulating for almost a year in the human population, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) exhibited a major step change in its adaptation to humans. These highly mutated forms of SARS-CoV-2 had enhanced rates of transmission relative to previous variants and were termed 'variants of concern' (VOCs). Designated Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta and Omicron, the VOCs emerged independently from one another, and in turn each rapidly became dominant, regionally or globally, outcompeting previous variants. The success of each VOC relative to the previously dominant variant was enabled by altered intrinsic functional properties of the virus and, to various degrees, changes to virus antigenicity conferring the ability to evade a primed immune response. The increased virus fitness associated with VOCs is the result of a complex interplay of virus biology in the context of changing human immunity due to both vaccination and prior infection. In this Review, we summarize the literature on the relative transmissibility and antigenicity of SARS-CoV-2 variants, the role of mutations at the furin spike cleavage site and of non-spike proteins, the potential importance of recombination to virus success, and SARS-CoV-2 evolution in the context of T cells, innate immunity and population immunity. SARS-CoV-2 shows a complicated relationship among virus antigenicity, transmission and virulence, which has unpredictable implications for the future trajectory and disease burden of COVID-19.

Detecting punctuated evolution in SARS-CoV-2 over the first year of the pandemic

The Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) evolved slowly over the first year of the Coronavirus Disease 19 (COVID-19) pandemic with differential mutation rates across lineages. Here, we explore how this variation arose. Whether evolutionary change accumulated gradually within lineages or during viral lineage branching is unclear. Using phylogenetic regression models, we show that ~13% of SARS-CoV-2 genomic divergence up to May 2020 is attributable to lineage branching events (punctuated evolution). The net number of branching events along lineages predicts ~5% of the deviation from the strict molecular clock. We did not detect punctuated evolution in SARS-CoV-1, possibly due to the small sample size, and in sarbecovirus broadly, likely due to a different evolutionary process altogether. Punctuation in SARS-CoV-2 is probably neutral because most mutations were not positively selected and because the strength of the punctuational effect remained constant over time, at least until May 2020, and across continents. However, the small punctuational contribution to SARS-CoV-2 diversity is consistent with the founder effect arising from narrow transmission bottlenecks. Therefore, punctuation in SARS-CoV-2 may represent the macroevolutionary consequence (rate variation) of a microevolutionary process (transmission bottleneck).

Dissecting Phenotype from Genotype with Clinical Isolates of SARS-CoV-2 First Wave Variants

The emergence and availability of closely related clinical isolates of SARS-CoV-2 offers a unique opportunity to identify novel nonsynonymous mutations that may impact phenotype. Global sequencing efforts show that SARS-CoV-2 variants have emerged and then been replaced since the beginning of the pandemic, yet we have limited information regarding the breadth of variant-specific host responses. Using primary cell cultures and the K18-hACE2 mouse, we investigated the replication, innate immune response, and pathology of closely related, clinical variants circulating during the first wave of the pandemic. Mathematical modeling of the lung viral replication of four clinical isolates showed a dichotomy between two B.1. isolates with significantly faster and slower infected cell clearance rates, respectively. While isolates induced several common immune host responses to infection, one B.1 isolate was unique in the promotion of eosinophil-associated proteins IL-5 and CCL11. Moreover, its mortality rate was significantly slower. Lung microscopic histopathology suggested further phenotypic divergence among the five isolates showing three distinct sets of phenotypes: (i) consolidation, alveolar hemorrhage, and inflammation, (ii) interstitial inflammation/septal thickening and peribronchiolar/perivascular lymphoid cells, and (iii) consolidation, alveolar involvement, and endothelial hypertrophy/margination. Together these findings show divergence in the phenotypic outcomes of these clinical isolates and reveal the potential importance of nonsynonymous mutations in nsp2 and ORF8.

Coordinated evolution at amino acid sites of SARS-CoV-2 spike

SARS-CoV-2 has adapted in a stepwise manner, with multiple beneficial mutations accumulating in a rapid succession at origins of VOCs, and the reasons for this are unclear. Here, we searched for coordinated evolution of amino acid sites in the spike protein of SARS-CoV-2. Specifically, we searched for concordantly evolving site pairs (CSPs) for which changes at one site were rapidly followed by changes at the other site in the same lineage. We detected 46 sites which formed 45 CSP. Sites in CSP were closer to each other in the protein structure than random pairs, indicating that concordant evolution has a functional basis. Notably, site pairs carrying lineage defining mutations of the four VOCs that circulated before May 2021 are enriched in CSPs. For the Alpha VOC, the enrichment is detected even if Alpha sequences are removed from analysis, indicating that VOC origin could have been facilitated by positive epistasis. Additionally, we detected nine discordantly evolving pairs of sites where mutations at one site unexpectedly rarely occurred on the background of a specific allele at another site, for example on the background of wild-type D at site 614 (four pairs) or derived Y at site 501 (three pairs). Our findings hint that positive epistasis between accumulating mutations could have delayed the assembly of advantageous combinations of mutations comprising at least some of the VOCs.

White-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) may serve as a wildlife reservoir for nearly extinct SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern

The spillover of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) from humans to white-tailed deer (WTD) and its ability to transmit from deer to deer raised concerns about the role of WTD in the epidemiology and ecology of the virus. Here, we present a comprehensive cross-sectional study assessing the prevalence, genetic diversity, and evolution of SARS-CoV-2 in WTD in the State of New York (NY). A total of 5,462 retropharyngeal lymph node samples collected from free-ranging hunter-harvested WTD during the hunting seasons of 2020 (Season 1, September to December 2020, n = 2,700) and 2021 (Season 2, September to December 2021, n = 2,762) were tested by SARS-CoV-2 real-time RT-PCR (rRT-PCR). SARS-CoV-2 RNA was detected in 17 samples (0.6%) from Season 1 and in 583 samples (21.1%) from Season 2. Hotspots of infection were identified in multiple confined geographic areas of NY. Sequence analysis of SARS-CoV-2 genomes from 164 samples demonstrated the presence of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages and the cocirculation of three major variants of concern (VOCs) (Alpha, Gamma, and Delta) in WTD. Our analysis suggests the occurrence of multiple spillover events (human to deer) of the Alpha and Delta lineages with subsequent deer-to-deer transmission and adaptation of the viruses. Detection of Alpha and Gamma variants in WTD long after their broad circulation in humans in NY suggests that WTD may serve as a wildlife reservoir for VOCs no longer circulating in humans. Thus, implementation of continuous surveillance programs to monitor SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in WTD is warranted, and measures to minimize virus transmission between humans and animals are urgently needed.

Identification of evolutionary trajectories shared across human betacoronaviruses

Comparing the evolution of distantly related viruses can provide insights into common adaptive processes related to shared ecological niches. Phylogenetic approaches, coupled with other molecular evolution tools, can help identify mutations informative on adaptation, whilst the structural contextualization of these to functional sites of proteins may help gain insight into their biological properties. Two zoonotic betacoronaviruses capable of sustained human-to-human transmission have caused pandemics in recent times (SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2), whilst a third virus (MERS-CoV) is responsible for sporadic outbreaks linked to animal infections. Moreover, two other betacoronaviruses have circulated endemically in humans for decades (HKU1 and OC43). To search for evidence of adaptive convergence between established and emerging betacoronaviruses capable of sustained human-to-human transmission (HKU1, OC43, SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2), we developed a methodological pipeline to classify shared non-synonymous mutations as putatively denoting homoplasy (repeated mutations that do not share direct common ancestry) or stepwise evolution (sequential mutations leading towards a novel genotype). In parallel, we look for evidence of positive selection, and draw upon protein structure data to identify potential biological implications. We find 30 mutations, with four of these [codon sites 18121 (nsp14/residue 28), 21623 (spike/21), 21635 (spike/25) and 23948 (spike/796); SARS-CoV-2 genome numbering] displaying evolution under positive selection and proximity to functional protein regions. Our findings shed light on potential mechanisms underlying betacoronavirus adaptation to the human host and pinpoint common mutational pathways that may occur during establishment of human endemicity.

Molecular determinants associated with temporal succession of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Uttar Pradesh, India

The emergence and rapid evolution of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) caused a global crisis that required a detailed characterization of the dynamics of mutational pattern of the viral genome for comprehending its epidemiology, pathogenesis and containment. We investigated the molecular evolution of the SASR-CoV-2 genome during the first, second and third waves of COVID-19 in Uttar Pradesh, India. Nanopore sequencing of the SARS-CoV-2 genome was undertaken in 544 confirmed cases of COVID-19, which included vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. In the first wave (unvaccinated population), the 20A clade (56.32%) was superior that was replaced by 21A Delta in the second wave, which was more often seen in vaccinated individuals in comparison to unvaccinated (75.84% versus 16.17%, respectively). Subsequently, 21A delta got outcompeted by Omicron (71.8%), especially the 21L variant, in the third wave. We noticed that Q677H appeared in 20A Alpha and stayed up to Delta, D614G appeared in 20A Alpha and stayed in Delta and Omicron variants (got fixed), and several other mutations appeared in Delta and stayed in Omicron. A cross-sectional analysis of the vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals during the second wave revealed signature combinations of E156G, F157Del, L452R, T478K, D614G mutations in the Spike protein that might have facilitated vaccination breach in India. Interestingly, some of these mutation combinations were carried forward from Delta to Omicron. In silico protein docking showed that Omicron had a higher binding affinity with the host ACE2 receptor, resulting in enhanced infectivity of Omicron over the Delta variant. This work has identified the combinations of key mutations causing vaccination breach in India and provided insights into the change of [virus's] binding affinity with evolution, resulting in more virulence in Delta and more infectivity in Omicron variants of SARS-CoV-2. Our findings will help in understanding the COVID-19 disease biology and guide further surveillance of the SARS-CoV-2 genome to facilitate the development of vaccines with better efficacies.

Guedes J, Nogueira FC, Silva JL, Castilho LR, de Oliveira GA. Conformational stability of SARS-CoV-2 glycoprotein spike variants

The severe acute respiratory syndrome spread worldwide, causing a pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 mutations have arisen in the spike, a glycoprotein at the viral envelope and an antigenic candidate for vaccines against COVID-19. Here, we present comparative data of the glycosylated full-length ancestral and D614G spike together with three other transmissible strains classified by the World Health Organization as variants of concern: beta, gamma, and delta. By showing that D614G has less hydrophobic surface exposure and trimer persistence, we place D614G with features that support a model of temporary fitness advantage for virus spillover. Furthermore, during the SARS-CoV-2 adaptation, the spike accumulates alterations leading to less structural stability for some variants. The decreased trimer stability of the ancestral and gamma and the presence of D614G uncoupled conformations mean higher ACE-2 affinities compared to the beta and delta strains. Mapping the energetics and flexibility of variants is necessary to improve vaccine development.

Diversity of viral communities in faecal samples of farmed red foxes

Emerging and existing viruses from various human and animal samples have been studied and analyzed using viral metagenomics, which has proven to be an effective technique. Foxes, as a kind of significant economic animal, are widely raised in China. Viruses carried by foxes may potentially infect humans or other animals. There are currently very few studies of faecal virome in farmed foxes. Using viral metagenomics, we evaluated the faecal virome of twenty-four foxes collected from the same farm in Jilin Province, China. Some sequences more closely related to the families Parvoviridae, Picornaviridae, Smacoviridae, Anelloviridae, and Herpesviridae were detected in the faecal sample. The main animal viruses that infect farmed red foxes were parvovirus and picornavirus. Five smacovirus strains were found and provided evidence for genetic diversity in the genus Smacoviridae. In addition, some viruses infecting avian species or rats were detected in this study. The study helped us better understand faecal virome in farmed red foxes and assisted in the surveillance and prevention of viral diseases in these animals.

Genome Structure, Life Cycle, and Taxonomy of Coronaviruses and the Evolution of SARS-CoV-2

Coronaviruses have a broad host range and exhibit high zoonotic potential. In this chapter, we describe their genomic organization in terms of encoded proteins and provide an introduction to the peculiar discontinuous transcription mechanism. Further, we present evolutionary conserved genomic RNA secondary structure features, which are involved in the complex replication mechanism. With a focus on computational methods, we review the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 starting with the 2019 strains. In that context, we also discuss the debated hypothesis of whether SARS-CoV-2 was created in a laboratory. We focus on the molecular evolution and the epidemiological dynamics of this recently emerged pathogen and we explain how variants of concern are detected and characterised. COVID-19, the disease caused by SARS-CoV-2, can spread through different transmission routes and also depends on a number of risk factors. We describe how current computational models of viral epidemiology, or more specifically, phylodynamics, have facilitated and will continue to enable a better understanding of the epidemic dynamics of SARS-CoV-2.

Investigation of the Virome and Characterization of Issyk-Kul Virus from Swedish Myotis brandtii Bats

Bats are reservoirs for many different viruses, including some that can be transmitted to and cause disease in humans and/or animals. However, less is known about the bat-borne viruses circulating in Northern European countries such as in Sweden. In this study, saliva from Myotis brandtii bats, collected from south-central Sweden, was analyzed for viruses. The metagenomic analysis identified viral sequences belonging to different viral families, including, e.g., Nairoviridae, Retroviridae, Poxviridae, Herpesviridae and Siphoviridae. Interestingly, through the data analysis, the near-complete genome of Issyk-Kul virus (ISKV), a zoonotic virus within the Nairoviridae family, was obtained, showing 95-99% protein sequence identity to previously described ISKVs. This virus is believed to infect humans via an intermediate tick host or through contact with bat excrete. ISKV has previously been found in bats in Europe, but not previously in the Nordic region. In addition, near full-length genomes of two novel viruses belonging to Picornavirales order and Tymoviridae family were characterized. Taken together, our study has not only identified novel viruses, but also the presence of a zoonotic virus not previously known to circulate in this region. Thus, the results from these types of studies can help us to better understand the diversity of viruses circulating in bat populations, as well as identify viruses with zoonotic potential that could possibly be transmitted to humans.

A Glimpse on the Evolution of RNA Viruses: Implications and Lessons from SARS-CoV-2

RNA viruses are characterised by extremely high genetic variability due to fast replication, large population size, low fidelity, and (usually) a lack of proofreading mechanisms of RNA polymerases leading to high mutation rates. Furthermore, viral recombination and reassortment may act as a significant evolutionary force among viruses contributing to greater genetic diversity than obtainable by mutation alone. The above-mentioned properties allow for the rapid evolution of RNA viruses, which may result in difficulties in viral eradication, changes in virulence and pathogenicity, and lead to events such as cross-species transmissions, which are matters of great interest in the light of current severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemics. In this review, we aim to explore the molecular mechanisms of the variability of viral RNA genomes, emphasising the evolutionary trajectory of SARS-CoV-2 and its variants. Furthermore, the causes and consequences of coronavirus variation are explored, along with theories on the origin of human coronaviruses and features of emergent RNA viruses in general. Finally, we summarise the current knowledge on the circulating variants of concern and highlight the many unknowns regarding SARS-CoV-2 pathogenesis.

An updated review of the scientific literature on the origin of SARS-CoV-2

More than two and a half years have already passed since the first case of COVID-19 was officially reported (December 2019), as well as more than two years since the WHO declared the current pandemic (March 2020). During these months, the advances on the knowledge of the COVID-19 and SARS-CoV-2, the coronavirus responsible of the infection, have been very significant. However, there are still some weak points on that knowledge, being the origin of SARS-CoV-2 one of the most notorious. One year ago, I published a review focused on what we knew and what we need to know about the origin of that coronavirus, a key point for the prevention of potential future pandemics of a similar nature. The analysis of the available publications until July 2021 did not allow drawing definitive conclusions on the origin of SARS-CoV-2. Given the great importance of that issue, the present review was aimed at updating the scientific information on that origin. Unfortunately, there have not been significant advances on that topic, remaining basically the same two hypotheses on it. One of them is the zoonotic origin of SARS-CoV-2, while the second one is the possible leak of this coronavirus from a laboratory. Most recent papers do not include observational or experimental studies, being discussions and positions on these two main hypotheses. Based on the information here reviewed, there is not yet a definitive and well demonstrated conclusion on the origin of SARS-CoV-2.

Molecular evidence for SARS-CoV-2 in samples collected from patients with morbilliform eruptions since late 2019 in Lombardy, northern Italy

As a reference laboratory for measles and rubella surveillance in Lombardy, we evaluated the association between SARS-CoV-2 infection and measles-like syndromes, providing preliminary evidence for undetected early circulation of SARS-CoV-2. Overall, 435 samples from 156 cases were investigated. RNA from oropharyngeal swabs (N = 148) and urine (N = 141) was screened with four hemi-nested PCRs and molecular evidence for SARS-CoV-2 infection was found in 13 subjects. Two of the positive patients were from the pandemic period (2/12, 16.7%, March 2020-March 2021) and 11 were from the pre-pandemic period (11/44, 25%, August 2019-February 2020). Sera (N = 146) were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG, IgM, and IgA antibodies. Five of the RNA-positive individuals also had detectable anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies. No strong evidence of infection was found in samples collected between August 2018 and July 2019 from 100 patients. The earliest sample with evidence of SARS-CoV-2 RNA was from September 12, 2019, and the positive patient was also positive for anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies (IgG and IgM). Mutations typical of B.1 strains previously reported to have emerged in January 2020 (C3037T, C14408T, and A23403G), were identified in samples collected as early as October 2019 in Lombardy. One of these mutations (C14408T) was also identified among sequences downloaded from public databases that were obtained by others from samples collected in Brazil in November 2019. We conclude that a SARS-CoV-2 progenitor capable of producing a measles-like syndrome may have emerged in late June-late July 2019 and that viruses with mutations characterizing B.1 strain may have been spreading globally before the first Wuhan outbreak. Our findings should be complemented by high-throughput sequencing to obtain additional sequence information. We highlight the importance of retrospective surveillance studies in understanding the early dynamics of COVID-19 spread and we encourage other groups to perform retrospective investigations to seek confirmatory proofs of early SARS-CoV-2 circulation.

Risk assessment and preventive health behaviours toward COVID-19 amongst bushmeat handlers in Nigerian wildlife markets: Drivers and One Health challenge

Over 70% of emerging infectious diseases are zoonotic and 72% of them have wildlife reservoirs with consequent global health impacts. Both SARS-CoV-1 and SARS-CoV-2 emerged certainly through wildlife market routes. We assessed wildlife handlers' zoonotic risk perceptions and preventive health behaviour measures toward COVID-19 during pandemic waves, and its drivers at wildlife markets using Health Belief Model (HBM) constructs. A cross-sectional study was conducted at purposively selected wildlife markets in Nigeria between November 2020 and October 2021. Descriptive, univariate, and multivariable logistic regressions analyses were performed at 95% confidence interval. Of the 600 targeted handlers in 97 wildlife markets, 97.2% (n = 583) participated. Consumers were the majority (65.3%), followed by hunters (18.4) and vendors (16.3%). Only 10.3% hunters, 24.3% vendors and 21.0% consumers associated COVID-19 with high zoonotic risk. Also, only few handlers practiced social/physical distancing at markets. Avoidance of handshaking or hugging and vaccination was significantly (p = 0.001) practiced by few handlers as preventive health behaviours at the markets. All the socio-demographic variables were significantly (p<0.05) associated with their knowledge, risk perceptions, and practice of preventive health behaviours toward COVID-19 at univariate analysis. Poor markets sanitation, hygiene, and biosecurity (OR=3.35, 95% CI: 2.33, 4.82); and poor butchering practices and exchange of wildlife species between shops [(OR=1.87; 95% CI: 1.34, 2.60) and (OR=2.03; 95% CI: 1.43, 2.88), respectively] were more likely to significantly influence COVID-19 emergence and spread at the markets. To tackle the highlighted gaps, collaborations between the public health, anthropologists, and veterinary and wildlife authorities through the One Health approach are advocated to intensify awareness and health education programmes that will improve perceptions and behaviours toward the disease and other emerging diseases control and prevention.

Genomic Analysis of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha, Beta and Delta Variants of Concern Uncovers Signatures of Neutral and Non-Neutral Evolution

Due to the emergence of new variants of the SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus, the question of how the viral genomes evolved, leading to the formation of highly infectious strains, becomes particularly important. Three major emergent strains, Alpha, Beta and Delta, characterized by a significant number of missense mutations, provide a natural test field. We accumulated and aligned 4.7 million SARS-CoV-2 genomes from the GISAID database and carried out a comprehensive set of analyses. This collection covers the period until the end of October 2021, i.e., the beginnings of the Omicron variant. First, we explored combinatorial complexity of the genomic variants emerging and their timing, indicating very strong, albeit hidden, selection forces. Our analyses show that the mutations that define variants of concern did not arise gradually but rather co-evolved rapidly, leading to the emergence of the full variant strain. To explore in more detail the evolutionary forces at work, we developed time trajectories of mutations at all 29,903 sites of the SARS-CoV-2 genome, week by week, and stratified them into trends related to (i) point substitutions, (ii) deletions and (iii) non-sequenceable regions. We focused on classifying the genetic forces active at different ranges of the mutational spectrum. We observed the agreement of the lowest-frequency mutation spectrum with the Griffiths-Tavaré theory, under the Infinite Sites Model and neutrality. If we widen the frequency range, we observe the site frequency spectra much more consistently with the Tung-Durrett model assuming clone competition and selection. The coefficients of the fitting model indicate the possibility of selection acting to promote gradual growth slowdown, as observed in the history of the variants of concern. These results add up to a model of genomic evolution, which partly fits into the classical drift barrier ideas. Certain observations, such as mutation "bands" persistent over the epidemic history, suggest contribution of genetic forces different from mutation, drift and selection, including recombination or other genome transformations. In addition, we show that a "toy" mathematical model can qualitatively reproduce how new variants (clones) stem from rare advantageous driver mutations, and then acquire neutral or disadvantageous passenger mutations which gradually reduce their fitness so they can be then outcompeted by new variants due to other driver mutations.

Evolutionary remodelling of N-terminal domain loops fine-tunes SARS-CoV-2 spike

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants has exacerbated the COVID-19 global health crisis. Thus far, all variants carry mutations in the spike glycoprotein, which is a critical determinant of viral transmission being responsible for attachment, receptor engagement and membrane fusion, and an important target of immunity. Variants frequently bear truncations of flexible loops in the N-terminal domain (NTD) of spike; the functional importance of these modifications has remained poorly characterised. We demonstrate that NTD deletions are important for efficient entry by the Alpha and Omicron variants and that this correlates with spike stability. Phylogenetic analysis reveals extensive NTD loop length polymorphisms across the sarbecoviruses, setting an evolutionary precedent for loop remodelling. Guided by these analyses, we demonstrate that variations in NTD loop length, alone, are sufficient to modulate virus entry. We propose that variations in NTD loop length act to fine-tune spike; this may provide a mechanism for SARS-CoV-2 to navigate a complex selection landscape encompassing optimisation of essential functionality, immune-driven antigenic variation and ongoing adaptation to a new host.