Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus

Climatic variations and Yersinia pestis host-vector abundance: a case study in Ankazobe district to understand plague epidemiology in Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Plague, a disease caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis remains a major public health concern in Madagascar despite numerous multidisciplinary studies. The persistence of human plague infections is thought to be linked to fluctuations in mammalian host and flea populations, which are affected by climatic and environmental variations. This study explored local macro- and microclimatic variations along with mammal and flea population dynamics across different microhabitat types within plague endemic rural and forested habitats of Madagascar. Understanding these variables and their interdependent relationships may help us better understand the complexities of Y. pestis transmission in the Madagascan Highlands.

METHODS

Small mammals and their fleas were captured in different microhabitats within plague focus in the Ankazobe District of Madagascar. Simultaneously, climatic data including temperature and humidity, were collected to assess the potential relationship between flea population dynamics and climatic variations. Specialized equipment was used to monitor microclimate conditions across various microhabitat types and compare them with macroclimate. Monitoring was performed inside and outside rodent burrows located inside and outside houses and in adjacent forested areas.

RESULTS

A greater abundance of fleas was observed inside dwellings compared to other microhabitats, such as outside houses and forest, whereas small mammal species diversity was significantly higher in forest environments. We also revealed significant differences in microclimates across microhabitat types, with lower temperatures and higher humidity inside rodent burrows compared to outside burrows, outside houses and the forest. Inside houses, temperature variations were more stable although temperatures were higher and humidity lower inside rodent burrows compared to other microhabitats.

CONCLUSION

This study highlights microclimate variation across different microhabitat types, which also differ from the macroclimate, and maps small mammal and flea abundance to these locations. These data suggest that it is important to further explore the relationship between microclimatic variations in the different microhabitats and the dynamics of flea and rodent populations as potential markers for plague persistence and transmission in these endemic foci.

Comparative SIR/SEIR modeling of the Antonine Plague in Rome

Some scholars consider the Antonine Plague to have been a major disease outbreak in the 2nd century CE that caused a significant decline in the population of the Roman Empire. Although there is currently no molecular evidence of the specific pathogen, literary evidence indicates the parameters of the disease that it caused and how significant the impact on Roman society was. One way to advance the current discussion concerning the Antonine Plague's impact on the Roman Empire's population is to examine the currently available sources and comparatively model the spread of different pathogens in a specific location with known demographic data for the relevant period. To accomplish this, we developed a series of dynamic ordinary differential equation models of the spread of disease in Rome between 165 and 189 CE for several pathogens. We found that daily disease deaths in the final years of the pandemic were inconsistent with estimates reported in primary sources, suggesting that either (a) the impact of the Antonine Plague may have been exaggerated in the descriptions of ancient authors, or (b) the daily deaths in ca. 189 CE were caused by a different disease event than the Antonine Plague, or (c) seasonality might have been a significant factor changing the intensity of disease spread, with the population more severely affected during the winter months. Although none of the pathogens we analyzed emerged as the likely causative agent of the Antonine Plague, the models show that the overall mortality rate would have increased maximally by 7%. This result contradicts the mortality rate accepted by historians who defend the thesis of the significant impact of this epidemic on the demography of the Roman Empire.

A Role for Early-Phase Transmission in the Enzootic Maintenance of Plague

Yersinia pestis, the bacterial agent of plague, is enzootic in many parts of the world within wild rodent populations and is transmitted by different flea vectors. The ecology of plague is complex, with rodent hosts exhibiting varying susceptibilities to overt disease and their fleas exhibiting varying levels of vector competence. A long-standing question in plague ecology concerns the conditions that lead to occasional epizootics among susceptible rodents. Many factors are involved, but a major one is the transmission efficiency of the flea vector. In this study, using Oropsylla montana (a ground squirrel flea that is a major plague vector in the western United States), we comparatively quantified the efficiency of the two basic modes of flea-borne transmission. Transmission efficiency by the early-phase mechanism was strongly affected by the host blood source. Subsequent biofilm-dependent transmission by blocked fleas was less influenced by host blood and was more efficient. Mathematical modeling predicted that early-phase transmission could drive an epizootic only among highly susceptible rodents with certain blood characteristics, but that transmission by blocked O. montana could do so in more resistant hosts irrespective of their blood characteristics. The models further suggested that for most wild rodents, exposure to sublethal doses of Y. pestis transmitted during the early phase may restrain rapid epizootic spread by increasing the number of immune, resistant individuals in the population.

Polygenic plague resistance in the great gerbil uncovered by population sequencing

Pathogens can elicit high selective pressure on hosts, potentially altering genetic diversity over short evolutionary timescales. Intraspecific variation in immune response is observable as variable survivability from specific infections. The great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) is a rodent plague host with a heterogenic but highly resistant phenotype. Here, we investigate the genomic basis for plague-resistant phenotypes by exposing wild-caught great gerbils to plague (Yersinia pestis). Whole genome sequencing of 10 survivors and 10 moribund individuals revealed a subset of genomic regions showing elevated differentiation. Gene ontology analysis of candidate genes in these regions demonstrated enrichment of genes directly involved in immune functions, cellular metabolism and the regulation of apoptosis as well as pathways involved in transcription, translation, and gene regulation. Transcriptomic analysis revealed that the early activated great gerbil immune response to plague consisted of classical components of the innate immune system. Our approach combining challenge experiments with transcriptomics and population level sequencing, provides new insight into the genetic background of plague-resistance and confirms its complex nature, most likely involving multiple genes and pathways of both the immune system and regulation of basic cellular functions.

Coevolutionary dynamics of host-pathogen interaction with density-dependent mortality

This study explores the coevolutionary dynamics of host-pathogen interaction based on a susceptible-infected population model with density-dependent mortality. We assume that both the host's resistance and the pathogen's virulence will adaptively evolve, but there are inevitable costs in terms of host birth rate and disease-related mortality rate. Particularly, it is assumed that both the host resistance and pathogen virulence can affect the transmission rate. By using the approach of adaptive dynamics and numerical simulation, we find that the finally coevolutionary outcome depends on the strength of host-pathogen asymmetric interaction, the curvature of trade-off functions, and the intensity of density-dependent natural mortality. To be specific, firstly, we find that if the strengths of host-pathogen asymmetric interaction and disease-related mortality are relatively weak, or the density-dependent natural mortality is relatively strong, then the host resistance and pathogen virulence will evolve to a continuously stable strategy. However, if the strength of host-pathogen asymmetric interaction and disease-related mortality becomes stronger, then the host resistance and pathogen virulence will evolve periodically. Secondly, we find that if the intensities of both the birth rate trade-off function and the density-dependent natural mortality are relatively weak, but the strength of host-pathogen asymmetric interaction becomes relatively strong, then the evolution of host resistance will have a relatively strongly accelerating benefit, the evolutionary branching of host resistance will first arise. However, if the strength of host-pathogen asymmetric interaction is relatively weak, but the intensity of the trade-off function of disease-related mortality becomes relatively strong, then the evolution of pathogen virulence will have a relatively strongly decelerating cost, and the evolutionary branching of pathogen virulence will first arise. Thirdly, after the evolutionary branching of host resistance and pathogen virulence, we further study the coevolutionary dynamics of two-hosts-one-pathogen interaction and one-host-two-pathogens interaction. We find that if the evolutionary branching of host resistance arises firstly, then the finally evolutionary outcome contains a dimorphic host and a monomorphic pathogen population. If the evolutionary branching of pathogen virulence arises firstly, then the finally evolutionary outcome may contain a monomorphic host and a dimorphic pathogen population.

Epidemic of plague amidst COVID-19 in Madagascar: efforts, challenges, and recommendations

The plague has been wreaking havoc on people in Madagascar with the COVID-19 pandemic. Madagascar’s healthcare sector is striving to respond to COVID-19 in the face of a plague outbreak that has created a new strain on the country’s public health system. The goal and activities of the gradual epidemic of plague in Madagascar during COVID-19 are described in this research. In order to contain the plague and the COVID-19 pandemic in this country, we have suggested long-term recommendations that can help to contain the outbreak so that it may spread to non-endemic areas.

Yersinia pestis: the Natural History of Plague

The Gram-negative bacterium Yersinia pestis is responsible for deadly plague, a zoonotic disease established in stable foci in the Americas, Africa, and Eurasia. Its persistence in the environment relies on the subtle balance between Y. pestis-contaminated soils, burrowing and nonburrowing mammals exhibiting variable degrees of plague susceptibility, and their associated fleas. Transmission from one host to another relies mainly on infected flea bites, inducing typical painful, enlarged lymph nodes referred to as buboes, followed by septicemic dissemination of the pathogen. In contrast, droplet inhalation after close contact with infected mammals induces primary pneumonic plague. Finally, the rarely reported consumption of contaminated raw meat causes pharyngeal and gastrointestinal plague. Point-of-care diagnosis, early antibiotic treatment, and confinement measures contribute to outbreak control despite residual mortality. Mandatory primary prevention relies on the active surveillance of established plague foci and ectoparasite control. Plague is acknowledged to have infected human populations for at least 5,000 years in Eurasia. Y. pestis genomes recovered from affected archaeological sites have suggested clonal evolution from a common ancestor shared with the closely related enteric pathogen Yersinia pseudotuberculosis and have indicated that ymt gene acquisition during the Bronze Age conferred Y. pestis with ectoparasite transmissibility while maintaining its enteric transmissibility. Three historic pandemics, starting in 541 AD and continuing until today, have been described. At present, the third pandemic has become largely quiescent, with hundreds of human cases being reported mainly in a few impoverished African countries, where zoonotic plague is mostly transmitted to people by rodent-associated flea bites.

Factors influencing the re-emergence of plague in Madagascar

Plague is an infectious disease found worldwide and has been responsible for pandemics throughout history. Yersinia pestis, the causative bacterium, survives in rodent hosts with flea vectors that also transmit it to humans. It has been endemic in Madagascar for a century but the 1990s saw major outbreaks and in 2006 the WHO described the plague as re-emerging in Madagascar and the world. This review highlights the variety of factors leading to plague re-emergence in Madagascar, including climate events, insecticide resistance, and host and human behaviour. It also addresses areas of concern for future epidemics and ways to mitigate these. Pinpointing and addressing current and future drivers of plague re-emergence in Madagascar will be essential to controlling future outbreaks both in Madagascar and worldwide.

Comparison of the transmission efficiency and plague progression dynamics associated with two mechanisms by which fleas transmit Yersinia pestis

Yersinia pestis can be transmitted by fleas during the first week after an infectious blood meal, termed early-phase or mass transmission, and again after Y. pestis forms a cohesive biofilm in the flea foregut that blocks normal blood feeding. We compared the transmission efficiency and the progression of infection after transmission by Oropsylla montana fleas at both stages. Fleas were allowed to feed on mice three days after an infectious blood meal to evaluate early-phase transmission, or after they had developed complete proventricular blockage. Transmission was variable and rather inefficient by both modes, and the odds of early-phase transmission was positively associated with the number of infected fleas that fed. Disease progression in individual mice bitten by fleas infected with a bioluminescent strain of Y. pestis was tracked. An early prominent focus of infection at the intradermal flea bite site and dissemination to the draining lymph node(s) soon thereafter were common features, but unlike what has been observed in intradermal injection models, this did not invariably lead to further systemic spread and terminal disease. Several of these mice resolved the infection without progression to terminal sepsis and developed an immune response to Y. pestis, particularly those that received an intermediate number of early-phase flea bites. Furthermore, two distinct types of terminal disease were noted: the stereotypical rapid onset terminal disease within four days, or a prolonged onset preceded by an extended, fluctuating infection of the lymph nodes before eventual systemic dissemination. For both modes of transmission, bubonic plague rather than primary septicemic plague was the predominant disease outcome. The results will help to inform mathematical models of flea-borne plague dynamics used to predict the relative contribution of the two transmission modes to epizootic outbreaks that erupt periodically from the normal enzootic background state.

Yersinia pestis can be transmitted by fleas within a few days after taking a blood meal from a highly bacteremic host, termed early-phase or mass transmission; and again after it forms a dense biofilm in the foregut of its vector that can eventually block blood feeding. The relative importance of the two transmission modes in the ecology of plague is a matter of current debate, but estimates of transmission rate, efficiency, and other parameters are limited. We compared transmission and disease progression dynamics in mice bitten by groups of fleas three days after their infectious blood meal (early-phase or mass transmission mode) and in mice bitten by individual blocked fleas. In general, a higher percentage of transmissions by blocked fleas led to terminal disease, whereas early-phase transmissions more often led to survival and an immune response, which are nonproductive infections in the sense that the bacteremia required to continue the Y. pestis life cycle did not develop and these animals would be removed from the pool of susceptibles in the host population. The data will be useful in mathematical models of plague dynamics in wild rodent populations.

Human plague: An old scourge that needs new answers

Yersinia pestis, the bacterial causative agent of plague, remains an important threat to human health. Plague is a rodent-borne disease that has historically shown an outstanding ability to colonize and persist across different species, habitats, and environments while provoking sporadic cases, outbreaks, and deadly global epidemics among humans. Between September and November 2017, an outbreak of urban pneumonic plague was declared in Madagascar, which refocused the attention of the scientific community on this ancient human scourge. Given recent trends and plague's resilience to control in the wild, its high fatality rate in humans without early treatment, and its capacity to disrupt social and healthcare systems, human plague should be considered as a neglected threat. A workshop was held in Paris in July 2018 to review current knowledge about plague and to identify the scientific research priorities to eradicate plague as a human threat. It was concluded that an urgent commitment is needed to develop and fund a strong research agenda aiming to fill the current knowledge gaps structured around 4 main axes: (i) an improved understanding of the ecological interactions among the reservoir, vector, pathogen, and environment; (ii) human and societal responses; (iii) improved diagnostic tools and case management; and (iv) vaccine development. These axes should be cross-cutting, translational, and focused on delivering context-specific strategies. Results of this research should feed a global control and prevention strategy within a "One Health" approach.

Modeling the Justinianic Plague: Comparing hypothesized transmission routes

The Justinianic Plague, the first part of the earliest of the three plague pandemics, has minimal historical documentation. Based on the limited primary sources, historians have argued both for and against the "maximalist narrative" of plague, i.e. that the Justinianic Plague had universally devastating effects throughout the Mediterranean region during the sixth century CE. Using primary sources of one of the pandemic’s best documented outbreaks that took place in Constantinople during 542 CE, as well as modern findings on plague etiology and epidemiology, we developed a series of dynamic, compartmental models of disease to explore which, if any, transmission routes of plague are feasible. Using expected parameter values, we find that the bubonic and bubonic-pneumonic transmission routes exceed maximalist mortality estimates and are of shorter detectable duration than described by the primary sources. When accounting for parameter uncertainty, several of the bubonic plague model configurations yielded interquartile estimates consistent with the upper end of maximalist estimates of mortality; however, these models had shorter detectable outbreaks than suggested by the primary sources. The pneumonic transmission routes suggest that by itself, pneumonic plague would not cause significant mortality in the city. However, our global sensitivity analysis shows that predicted disease dynamics vary widely for all hypothesized transmission routes, suggesting that regardless of its effects in Constantinople, the Justinianic Plague would have likely had differential effects across urban areas around the Mediterranean. Our work highlights the uncertainty surrounding the details in the primary sources on the Justinianic Plague and calls into question the likelihood that the Justinianic Plague affected all localities in the same way.

Soil salinity and aridity specify plague foci in the United States of America

Plague is a deadly zoonosis that periodically reemerges as small outbreaks in geographically limited foci where the causative agent Yersinia pestis may reside in soil. We analyzed a dataset of 1.005 carefully documented plague cases that were georeferenced over 113 years in peer-reviewed literature in the contiguous United States. Plotting outbreaks by counties defined as plague foci on geographical maps, we observed a significant co-localization of plague outbreaks with high soil salinity measured by an electric conductivity of >4 dS/ m^-1 and aridity measured by an aridity index <0.5. Thus, we identified aridity and soil salinity as significantly associated with ecological risk factors for relapsing plague in the contiguous United States. These results reveal two evolutive parameters that are partially associated with anthropic activities, complicating the epidemiology of plague in the contiguous United States. Exploiting aridity and soil salinity data may help in the surveillance of evolving plague foci in the contiguous United States.

The Asian house shrew Suncus murinus as a reservoir and source of human outbreaks of plague in Madagascar

Identifying key reservoirs for zoonoses is crucial for understanding variation in incidence. Plague re-emerged in Mahajanga, Madagascar in the 1990s but there has been no confirmed case since 1999. Here we combine ecological and genetic data, from during and after the epidemics, with experimental infections to examine the role of the shrew Suncus murinus in the plague epidemiological cycle. The predominance of S. murinus captures during the epidemics, their carriage of the flea vector and their infection with Yersinia pestis suggest they played an important role in the maintenance and transmission of plague. S. murinus exhibit a high but variable resistance to experimental Y. pestis infections, providing evidence of its ability to act as a maintenance host. Genetic analyses of the strains isolated from various hosts were consistent with two partially-linked transmission cycles, with plague persisting within the S. murinus population, occasionally spilling over into the rat and human populations. The recent isolation from a rat in Mahajanga of a Y. pestis strain genetically close to shrew strains obtained during the epidemics reinforces this hypothesis and suggests circulation of plague continues. The observed decline in S. murinus and Xenopsylla cheopis since the epidemics appears to have decreased the frequency of spillover events to the more susceptible rats, which act as a source of infection for humans. Although this may explain the lack of confirmed human cases in recent years, the current circulation of plague within the city highlights the continuing health threat.

The reemergence of plague is related to the persistence and dynamics of its reservoirs and vectors. During the human plague outbreaks that re-occurred in Mahajanga harbor, Madagascar in the 1990s, the shrew Suncus murinus was found infected with Yersinia pestis. Combining field surveys, experimental infections and genetic analysis, we examined the role of Asian shrew Suncus murinus in plague transmission and maintenance comparatively with others potential hosts in Mahajanga. The genomes of nineteen Y. pestis isolates recovered from humans, shrews, rats and fleas in this focus were sequenced and compared. We observed the predominance of S. murinus captured during the epidemics and their carriage of the flea vector. Shrews exhibited high resistance to Y. pestis experimental infections. Genetic analyses of the strains isolated from various hosts were consistent with two partially-linked transmission cycles, with plague persisting within the S. murinus population, occasionally spilling over into the rat and human populations. The isolation of a Y. pestis strain from a rat in Mahajanga in 2014 genetically close to shrew strains reinforces this hypothesis. The current circulation of plague within the city highlights the continuing health threat.

Dynamic, spatial models of parasite transmission in wildlife: Their structure, applications and remaining challenges

Individual differences in contact rate can arise from host, group and landscape heterogeneity and can result in different patterns of spatial spread for diseases in wildlife populations with concomitant implications for disease control in wildlife of conservation concern, livestock and humans. While dynamic disease models can provide a better understanding of the drivers of spatial spread, the effects of landscape heterogeneity have only been modelled in a few well-studied wildlife systems such as rabies and bovine tuberculosis. Such spatial models tend to be either purely theoretical with intrinsic limiting assumptions or individual-based models that are often highly species- and system-specific, limiting the breadth of their utility. Our goal was to review studies that have utilized dynamic, spatial models to answer questions about pathogen transmission in wildlife and identify key gaps in the literature. We begin by providing an overview of the main types of dynamic, spatial models (e.g., metapopulation, network, lattice, cellular automata, individual-based and continuous-space) and their relation to each other. We investigate different types of ecological questions that these models have been used to explore: pathogen invasion dynamics and range expansion, spatial heterogeneity and pathogen persistence, the implications of management and intervention strategies and the role of evolution in host-pathogen dynamics. We reviewed 168 studies that consider pathogen transmission in free-ranging wildlife and classify them by the model type employed, the focal host-pathogen system, and their overall research themes and motivation. We observed a significant focus on mammalian hosts, a few well-studied or purely theoretical pathogen systems, and a lack of studies occurring at the wildlife-public health or wildlife-livestock interfaces. Finally, we discuss challenges and future directions in the context of unprecedented human-mediated environmental change. Spatial models may provide new insights into understanding, for example, how global warming and habitat disturbance contribute to disease maintenance and emergence. Moving forward, better integration of dynamic, spatial disease models with approaches from movement ecology, landscape genetics/genomics and ecoimmunology may provide new avenues for investigation and aid in the control of zoonotic and emerging infectious diseases.

Bank vole immunoheterogeneity may limit Nephropatia Epidemica emergence in a French non-endemic region

Ecoevolutionary processes affecting hosts, vectors and pathogens are important drivers of zoonotic disease emergence. In this study, we focused on nephropathia epidemica (NE), which is caused by Puumala hantavirus (PUUV) whose natural reservoir is the bank vole, Myodes glareolus. We questioned the possibility of NE emergence in a French region that is considered to be NE-free but that is adjacent to a NE-endemic region. We first confirmed the epidemiology of these two regions and we demonstrated the absence of spatial barriers that could have limited dispersal, and consequently, the spread of PUUV into the NE-free region. We next tested whether regional immunoheterogeneity could impact PUUV chances to circulate and persist in the NE-free region. We showed that bank voles from the NE-free region were sensitive to experimental PUUV infection. We observed high levels of immunoheterogeneity between individuals and also between regions. Antiviral gene expression (Tnf and Mx2) reached higher levels in bank voles from the NE-free region. During experimental infections, anti-PUUV antibody production was higher in bank voles from the NE-endemic region. These results indicated a lower susceptibility to PUUV for bank voles from this NE-free region, which might limit PUUV persistence and therefore, the risk of NE.

Climatic and evolutionary drivers of phase shifts in the plague epidemics of colonial India

Immune heterogeneity in wild host populations indicates that disease-mediated selection is common in nature. However, the underlying dynamic feedbacks involving the ecology of disease transmission, evolutionary processes, and their interaction with environmental drivers have proven challenging to characterize. Plague presents an optimal system for interrogating such couplings: Yersinia pestis transmission exerts intense selective pressure driving the local persistence of disease resistance among its wildlife hosts in endemic areas. Investigations undertaken in colonial India after the introduction of plague in 1896 suggest that, only a decade after plague arrived, a heritable, plague-resistant phenotype had become prevalent among commensal rats of cities undergoing severe plague epidemics. To understand the possible evolutionary basis of these observations, we developed a mathematical model coupling environmentally forced plague dynamics with evolutionary selection of rats, capitalizing on extensive archival data from Indian Plague Commission investigations. Incorporating increased plague resistance among rats as a consequence of intense natural selection permits the model to reproduce observed changes in seasonal epidemic patterns in several cities and capture experimentally observed associations between climate and flea population dynamics in India. Our model results substantiate Victorian era claims of host evolution based on experimental observations of plague resistance and reveal the buffering effect of such evolution against environmental drivers of transmission. Our analysis shows that historical datasets can yield powerful insights into the transmission dynamics of reemerging disease agents with which we have limited contemporary experience to guide quantitative modeling and inference.

Zoonoses As Ecological Entities: A Case Review of Plague

As a zoonosis, Plague is also an ecological entity, a complex system of ecological interactions between the pathogen, the hosts, and the spatiotemporal variations of its ecosystems. Five reservoir system models have been proposed: (i) assemblages of small mammals with different levels of susceptibility and roles in the maintenance and amplification of the cycle; (ii) species-specific chronic infection models; (ii) flea vectors as the true reservoirs; (iii) Telluric Plague, and (iv) a metapopulation arrangement for species with a discrete spatial organization, following a source-sink dynamic of extinction and recolonization with naïve potential hosts. The diversity of the community that harbors the reservoir system affects the transmission cycle by predation, competition, and dilution effect. Plague has notable environmental constraints, depending on altitude (500+ meters), warm and dry climates, and conditions for high productivity events for expansion of the transmission cycle. Human impacts are altering Plague dynamics by altering landscape and the faunal composition of the foci and adjacent areas, usually increasing the presence and number of human cases and outbreaks. Climatic change is also affecting the range of its occurrence. In the current transitional state of zoonosis as a whole, Plague is at risk of becoming a public health problem in poor countries where ecosystem erosion, anthropic invasion of new areas, and climate change increase the contact of the population with reservoir systems, giving new urgency for ecologic research that further details its maintenance in the wild, the spillover events, and how it links to human cases.

Evaluation of Yersinia pestis Transmission Pathways for Sylvatic Plague in Prairie Dog Populations in the Western U.S

Sylvatic plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is periodically responsible for large die-offs in rodent populations that can spillover and cause human mortalities. In the western US, prairie dog populations experience nearly 100% mortality during plague outbreaks, suggesting that multiple transmission pathways combine to amplify plague dynamics. Several alternate pathways in addition to flea vectors have been proposed, such as transmission via direct contact with bodily fluids or inhalation of infectious droplets, consumption of carcasses, and environmental sources of plague bacteria, such as contaminated soil. However, evidence supporting the ability of these proposed alternate pathways to trigger large-scale epizootics remains elusive. Here we present a short review of potential plague transmission pathways and use an ordinary differential equation model to assess the contribution of each pathway to resulting plague dynamics in black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) and their fleas (Oropsylla hirsuta). Using our model, we found little evidence to suggest that soil contamination was capable of producing plague epizootics in prairie dogs. However, in the absence of flea transmission, direct transmission, i.e., contact with bodily fluids or inhalation of infectious droplets, could produce enzootic dynamics, and transmission via contact with or consumption of carcasses could produce epizootics. This suggests that these pathways warrant further investigation.